Fighting Renewed In Israel After 7 Day Pause

After a 7 day "pause,"  Israel's war with Hamas has resumed this morning.  Over the course of the 7 day pause, 110 hostages were released by Hamas including some young children, many senior citizens and several foreign workers (mostly Thai) who were working in Israel.  In exchange Israel released more than 300 prisoners from its jails.  To correct my previous post, some of these Palestinian prisoners were being held under "administrative detention" and my not have actually been convicted in a proper court process.  However, the vast majority were involved in an actual or attempted attack on Israeli civilians or soldiers.  They were released by Israel for civilians who were kidnapped from their homes or from the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023.

According to press reports, Israel was willing to continue the current pause for at least three more days since Hamas had claimed that it still had about 30 senior citizens, women and children that it was willing to release in exchange for 3 prisoners each.  Hamas was required to provide a list of at least 10 hostages that it would be releasing by midnight to ensure another day of pause.  But last night, instead of providing a list of hostages, Hamas sent some missiles.  The Israeli army responded by indicating that operations against Gaza had resumed.

It is very difficult to predict how this war is likely to develop and how or when it might end.  

On the one hand, various countries are making extensive efforts to negotiate further pauses in the fighting to allow for additional prisoner/hostage exchanges and discuss possible conditions for a longer term cease fire.  From my understanding, Israel would be prepared to make extensive concessions to obtain the release of the remaining hostages - approximately 139 of them - according to Ynet News.  In exchange for Israeli soldiers - and other remaining hostages, Israel is apparently prepared to release some of the most hardened terrorists that it is holding - which creates its own moral dilemmas.

On the other hand, after the massacre of October 7, 2023 and the accompanying declaration of war by Hamas, the Israeli government determined that its war objectives included defeating Hamas and eliminating it as the governing power in Gaza.  As well, its objectives included destroying as much of Hamas' underground tunnel network as possible.  If Israel does not make significant progress towards these goals, the war will be seen as a major victory for Hamas.  This would keep all  Israeli border settlements in a state of continued ongoing risk, would create regional deterrence problems for Israel in the region and would leave Israel simply waiting for another attack.  Those outcomes are unacceptable and dangerous.

From reports I have seen on the various Israeli channels, Israel has degraded approximately 20-25% of the Hamas forces, primarily in northern Gaza.  Most of the remaining forces, including two of Hamas' "elite units" are in Jabaliya and Khan Yunis.  I don't expect this war to end without significant fighting in those areas.  This war may take a while.

A Word about Civilians

Before the pause, the "Hamas Health Ministry" claimed that more than 20,000 Palestinians had been killed and alleged that the majority were civilians.  As of now, the same "Ministry" is claiming that just over 14,000 were killed.  That is still a very large number, no doubt.  However, there is simply no reason to accept anything that Hamas says as having even a kernel of truth to it.  As we know from the hospital incident early on, Hamas claimed that Israel had killed some 500 civilians.  It later turned out that it was an "own goal" - a missile fired by the Islamic Jihad - and less than 50 Palestinians had been killed.

More importantly, Hamas has not indicated how many of the alleged 14,000 alleged deaths have been Hamas fighters.  Contrary to what one might read or hear in some western media - including  places like the BBC, the Toronto Star and other illustrious media outlets, Israel is primarily fighting Hamas militants and is not randomly killing civilians.   If Israel were trying to kill civilians deliberately, the death toll would be hundreds of thousands (like what Assad did in Syria).   Instead, Israel urged civilians to leave the north before attacking, which probably allowed thousands of  Hamas fighters to leave along with the civilians.   Based on reports in the Israeli media, it is almost certain that a very  high percentage of the Palestinians who have been killed are Hamas fighters.  

That is not to say that civilians in Gaza are not suffering.  They are and many have been killed.  But it is their government that launched a war and there is a very high level of support for this Hamas war among Gazan Palestinians.  They were cheering and distributing candies when they heard news of the October 7 massacre and now they are reckoning with the consequences of supporting that regime.  People around the world are calling for a ceasefire - which is like people who may have called for a ceasefire during WWII instead of a victory by the allies.  People who really care about the Palestinians should be calling for a Hamas surrender now not a ceasefire. 

Some of the released hostages have been providing information about who was holding them in captivity.  One prisoner was being held in the attic of the house of a senior UNRWA official (UNRWA being a UN funded  organization devoted to continuing Palestinian refugee status perpetually).  Another returned hostage was being held in the house of a Palestinian doctor. There are many similar stories.  In other words, many of the hostages were distributed to and being held by "civilians."

I have spoken to some soldiers who were in northern Gaza going house to house looking for Hamas fighters. They found hidden weapons caches in the vast majority of homes they entered.  In some cases, rocket launchers and rockets. In other cases, Kalashnikovs, grenades and other weapons. Sometimes these were in children's bedrooms, in plain sight or in closets or under beds. Other times, in basements, attics or under trap doors. I saw videos from several of these houses. The soldiers told me that from what they saw (and their video evidence), they entered very few homes of "innocent civilians" who were uninvolved.

Despite all of this, it is clear that a growing proportion of world leaders are beginning to pressure Israel to end this war, using the concern about civilians as the main basis for taking these positions. President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken seem to be moving down this path. But at this point, it seems to me that Israel will have to resist these calls for now - until it is at least able to accomplish some of its primary war objectives.

There is also a question of "what happens next."  On this, I haven't yet heard any sensible and workable proposal from Israel, the U.S., or anyone else. Essentially, Gaza needs some sort of outcome that is comparable to the Allies' defeat in WWII. A complete victory by Israel or a surrender by Hamas.  Followed by a plan to rebuild Gaza, focusing on education, health care and economy - while keeping the area demilitarized.  

One precondition is that Hamas has to be defeated or has to surrender. This could take weeks, months or even longer. But I don't see how Israel can accept anything less than one of these two outcomes.

A second precondition is that the Palestinians  have to be prepared to  live under this type of arrangement. Again, I have no idea how to implement that, who would police it and keep it demilitarized and whether it could even work. But a Hamas government on Israel's border, after the  massacre and all of the other wars is just not feasible.

So for  now, while we may soon see another pause or two - and some additional hostage deals, I expect that we are in for an extensive period of fighting, especially in southern Gaza. The landscape will have to change significantly before a long term arrangement can be reached.

Stories of Captivity

There are so many stories being circulated from the various Israeli  hostages who were  released - and they are available  on many  different sites and publications.

A few items caught my attention  in particular.

The hostages were almost all underfed and undernourished. Not visited by the Red Cross or anyone else.  No one really knew if they were dead or alive. Some released Thai workers said in an interview that they were so hungry they resorted to eating toilet paper.

One hostage, Rony Kriboy, age 25, a dual Russian-Israeli citizen, was taken hostage at the Nova music festival.  Somehow he managed to escape from captivity.  But he had nothing with him.  No food, no money, no phone, no water.  He spent four days trying to get out of Gaza, while  scrounging for food.  Eventually, he was caught by Palestinian civilians and turned over to Hamas again. Miraculously, they didn't kill him. He was released with the reported intervention of Putin as part of one of the exchanges.  

Another released hostage, Mia Schem, had a severe arm injury. Hamas brought a veterinarian to operate on her arm. She is now undergoing treatment in an Israeli hospital. She had been forced to make a video while in Hamas captivity claiming that she was being treated well.

Eitan Yahalomi, age 12, was forced to watch videos of the Hamas massacres over and over while in captivity. He was held by Hamas for more than 50 days.  He was threatened with weapons repeatedly.

9 year old Emily hand was released this week. She returned to her father to learn that her mother had been killed on October 7. She will only speak in whispers now after having been traumatized by Hamas for more than 7 weeks.

Some 139 hostages are still being held by Hamas. Even though it was part of the "pause" deal that the International Red Cross would be able to visit the prisoners, Hamas did not honour the deal and did not allow any visits. We still do not know how many hostages are alive, what condition they are in or how they are being held.  

Israel is still hoping to reach some type of deal to release as many as possible if not all of them. But so far, it has not been able to reach a deal with Hamas through the bargaining agents - Qatar, Egypt and the U.S.

Conditions in Israel

During the brief 7-day pause, many things came back to life in many parts of Israel. Restaurants were full, bars and pubs in Tel-Aviv and other places were bustling - and many soldiers were able to get a bit of a much needed break. We were able to host 7 of them for big dinner earlier this week. Some soldiers had not been home for 30 days or more and had been living and sleeping "in the field."

Of course thousands of Israelis are living in uncertain temporary arrangements since whole communities were destroyed on Oct 7.  Others have been temporarily evacuated from their homes in the north due to the ongoing threat from Hezbollah. Some are staying in hotels. Some are staying with friends and relatives. But there is an enormous amount of work to do to return all of these people to any semblance of normalcy.

We had a few days of very heavy rain but the sun returned and the past few days have been like late August days in Toronto - sunny and beautiful - and during a "pause" - even calm in parts of the country.

But yesterday was anything but calm. Three Israelis were killed and several others injured in a shooting attack in Jerusalem. Hamas took responsibility and that was during the "pause."  

The day before, terrorists had opened fire and killed two soldiers and wounded others.

Even so, people were waiting with anticipation yesterday to see what would happen and whether the pause would be extended. Instead, we woke up to news that the fighting would continue intensely and no other hostages would be released. And we are back to a situation of uncertainty, concern and worry.  As they say in Yiddish - on shpilkes.

We were planning to host some close friends in early January. They have had to cancel their trip.  Understandably.  Cloudy with a chance of missiles is not the best forecast for a vacation. Another friend is planning to come and volunteer in late December. So far, that is still going ahead. And one other friend, with family members living here, arrived for a visit earlier this week. People are still flying to and from  Israel, mostly on El Al.  So our "hotel" is open and you are welcome to visit - even during a war. We have an on-premises safe room (with extra thick concrete walls, designed to withstand a direct missile hit) though we hope that will never have to find out if it actually works.

I have to travel to Toronto again for a short visit. Once again, I will have to mix and match some crazy flight schedules. I have a trip through Amsterdam coming up - with El Al to Amsterdam and then Air Canada to Toronto. I am not looking forward to it after the nasty experience I had on the way to Israel. But I couldn't change it - other than to move the Air Canada leg to a later time to allow more time.

Coming back, I am still looking at options. Considering a change in London, Frankfurt or some other places. I am trying to stick with the Star Alliance as much possible since I get such a great benefit from flying on Air Canada or other partners. But no Star Alliance airline is currently flying to Tel Aviv. So anyone flying to Israel via a Star Alliance flight must switch over to El Al.  

If you don't care about which airline you are taking - the easiest way to  get to and from Israel now from Toronto is clearly El Al from New York with a connecting flight on Delta or American.  One friend of ours recently completed a fairly last minute booking for less than $2,000 (Canadian) (about $1,100 USD) - using El Al and Delta.

Chanukah is fast approaching.  For Israelis, that means eating doughnuts - or Sofganyot, as they are called.  The big fat jelly-filled, icing-sugar-coated calorie bombs.  Personally, they have  never done anything for me.  I always  associated Chanukah with  potato latkes - whether  they were being made by my mother, one of my two dear late grandmothers - or anyone  else.  I still love latkes.  But somehow, in Israel, Chanukah is much more likely to be associated with sofganyot.  Of course, I do my part to swim against the tide.  I certainly plan on making a bunch of latkes - using whatever I learned from watching my two bubbies and my mom.  Not that much healthier than the doughnuts, I suppose, but once or twice a year - I really enjoy having a few....(or more than a few).  

That's about it for now.  It will probably be two to three weeks before I put together  another blog, unless I manage to find the time to put together another one sooner.  For now, I wish everyone a Shabbat Shalom and Happy Chanukah.  We continue to hope  and pray for the safe return of all of the remaining hostages, for the safety of all of our soldiers, security personnel and all of the residents of Israel, across the country.   I probably have to add that we also hope and pray for the safety of Jews everywhere, throughout the diaspora, as we have seen some really crazy threats and attacks on Jews around the world.   Finally, I hope that we will see an end  to the war soon with Israel achieving a significant proportion of its war aims so that we can try to usher in a new period of hope, relative peace, stability and security.  Perhaps that is only a dream - but we have to hope -  and try.

War Update - 24th Day of War in Israel

We are in the 24th day of war - a war that was started by Hamas on October 7th, 2023, with a surprise attack on more than 20 communities near the Gaza border.  The Hamas terrorists murdered more than 1,400 Israelis - men, women, children, babies - in gruesome fashion. People were burned alive, cut into pieces, decapitated, tortured. The horrific stories are shocking. Much of it was captured on video by Hamas terrorists who were using their cell phones or Go Pro cameras to record what they were doing. In some cases, they took cell phones from victims - and recorded torture and murder scenes on the victim's cell phones - in several cases, posting these videos to Facebook live or other social media.

This was all accompanied by a "declaration of war" on Israel from Hamas,  which runs and controls the Gaza strip.

What would any country do in response?  Ask for a cease fire?  I don't think so.

As of now, Israel reports that more than 1,400 Israelis have been killed and more than 240 have been kidnapped and are being held in Gaza.  More than 4,600 Israelis have been injured.

Israel has responded in force to this declaration of war. It has called up more than 300,000 reserve soldiers, mobilized its army on its northern, eastern and southern borders and moved ahead with a military plan to defeat Hamas.  Initially, Israel used its air force to attack a range of targets.  It is now moving ahead with ground invasion of some sort.

I cannot dispute that this is a disaster for Gaza and its civilians.  And it is not the first such disaster.  Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, the Hamas regime has initiated 5 rounds of fighting prior to 2023.  These battles have seen Gaza fire rockets and missiles at Israeli  civilians, inviting Israel to respond with air attacks and other military manoeuvres.  Nothing has been gained by Hamas in any of  these attacks other than Hamas being able to terrorize its population into allowing Hamas to continue to maintain power in Gaza.  And of course growing the massive personal wealth of several Hamas leaders.

Meanwhile, the world has poured money into Gaza.  With all of that money, one might have thought that Gaza would build infrastructure, industry and other necessities and improve the standards of living for Gazans. Instead, the vast majority of the money was used to stockpile rockets, to build a vast underground network of tunnels and to amass other weapons, all while maintaining the poverty and squalid conditions for the residents of Gaza. At the same time, the Hamas leaders including Khaled Meshal, Dr. Musa Abu Marzook, Ismail Haniyeh and others have attained great personal wealth. 

This Hamas leadership is dedicated to nothing less than the destruction of Israeli.  It is not interested in a "two-state solution" or some other arrangement that results in peaceful coexistence. It runs Gaza with an iron fist and routinely executes suspected collaborators, political opponents, homosexuals and others.

That is the regime that has declared war on Israel. At this point, I would say that there seems to be near unanimity, even on the left, in Israel that this war must be fought until Hamas is destroyed or unconditionally surrenders.  

Contrary to the suggestions from many columnists in the New York Times, such as the column by Megan Stack on October 31, 2023, this is not about Israeli "revenge" or the random murder of civilians.  There is no way that Israel would agree to any kind of cease fire now without changing the current reality.  Not only would a cease fire mean more attacks from Hamas in weeks, months or some other time period, it would leave Israel in a state of constant and ongoing danger, in which civilians can be attacked  at any time.

At this point, I think Israel's war aims will include a number of key points.  For one thing, and near the  top of the list, Israel must insist on the return of all of the hostages held by Hamas - whether through military operations or negotiations.  Although there are apparently some ongoing discussions, to this point, only 2 hostages  have been released and one was freed by Israeli forces yesterday, in a daring but successful operation.  Her photo is included in this blog, above.

Secondly, Israel intends to destroy the vast majority of the underground tunnels - including the stockpiles of weaponry in these tunnels, the communication systems, the command centres and other facilities.  This will not be an easy task, especially since many of these tunnels are under mosques, hospitals and other civilian buildings.  For example, the largest Hamas command centres  are located at  or under the Shifa hospital, where more than 30,000 Hamas guerillas are apparently hiding.  One way or another, I don't see how this war will end until those command centres are completely destroyed.

Israel  also intends to capture, kill or otherwise neutralize most of the key Hamas leadership.  Some are living outside of Israel.  Their time will come later.  But for now, Israel will need to hunt down those terrorist leaders who are situated in Gaza.

So short of a lengthy war, is any type of cease fire possible? Well, if Hamas were to surrender unconditionally, the war would end.  This was the goal sought  (and obtained) by the allies in WWII.  Although the scale is much smaller, and I don't buy the propaganda lines that "Hamas are Nazis" - Hamas is nevertheless a terrorist organization, (like ISIS) intent on committing the worst type of atrocities.  Hamas must be destroyed and removed from the region.  Israel cannot end the war and continue to have a militarized Hamas on its doorstep.

I hope that the army has a proper plan that it can implement to attain these objectives.  I don't think Israel has too many other alternatives.  So this might be a lengthy war.

Worldwide Reaction

As you know, the worldwide reaction has been astonishing.   All kinds of people coming out of the woodwork arguing that the massacres and crimes perpetrated by Hamas were legitimate forms of resistance.  It is a sick world indeed if that is your  definition of legitimate resistance.

We are reminded that there are only about 15.3 million Jews in the world and more than 2 billion Muslims.   There are 50 Muslim majority countries and  one  Jewish country.  Just from sheer numbers alone, it is no surprise that we are not very popular.

But in many places, we have also seen the massive hypocrisy of some "progressives."  On campuses across the U.S. and Canada - and in many other places around the world, so called "progressives" are chanting slogans like "Free Palestine" which is essentially a call for the destruction of Israel.  We have seen  signed letters  supporting Hamas actions. We are seeing professors (even in disciplines totally unrelated to Mideastern studies) attacking Israel.  By openly supporting terrorist groups and rationalizing terrorist atrocities, these groups are, effectively, openly endorsing the same type of violence against Jews everywhere. It is simply shocking. And it is resulting in security incidents and concerns for Jews all over the world.

To his credit, U.S. President has withstood this "progressive" pressure so far and has stood with Israel.  By sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, the U.S. has maintained a strong deterrent against the prospect of Hezbollah or Iran widening the war and turning it into a full-blown regional conflict.  The U.S. has also fought off U.N. attempts to enact anti-Israel security council resolutions at the U.N.  I am not sure that President Biden will maintain the resolve to continue supporting Israel until Israel has defeated Hamas but I certainly hope he will. To do otherwise would render all of his efforts to date meaningless.

Other Fallout

Even as the war progresses, the political situation in Israel is tenuous. Prime Minister Netanyahu spent years portraying himself as the only leader who could maintain security and deterrence in Israel. In one series of election ads, he argued that he was uniquely able to stay on top of intelligence and "sniff out" any potential security threats even  before they could occur.  Just a few election cycles ago, Bibi used giant billboards of himself standing alongside Putin and Trump -  his "friends."  

Even as Russia attacked Ukraine and many Israelis urged the government to take a more pro-Ukraine stance, Bibi's policy was to placate Russia and stay as neutral as possible. At this point, however, Putin has completely turned against Israel and Russia is working closely with the Iranians, who fund and support Hamas. Bibi's relationship with Turkish leader Erdogan has fared even worse. Erdogan has been spouting some of the most anti-Israel venom of any leader in the world.  He even rivals the Iranian leadership in that category.

Oddly enough, Bibi's closest friend has been President Biden. This after all of Bibi's efforts to turn Israel into a  partisan issue in the  U.S., by attacking Obama, supporting Trump and other Republicans - and interfering outright in U.S. elections.  All of those efforts by Bibi have been exposed as a failed policy.  Some of Bibi's current cabinet ministers launched vicious attacks on President Biden and his government prior to the war. A few have since apologized. But long term, it is a disastrous policy to disregard the Democrats and cultivate only the Republican party for pro-Israel support - especially looking at long term U.S.  demographics.

Aside from foreign policy issues, Prime Minister Netanyahu is embroiled in all kinds of political issues at home. He  put together a coalition of far right ultra religious parties and idealogues who had limited practical experience and even less expertise. As a result, when this war started, Bibi's government was  exposed as one with few, if any, capable ministers. For most Israelis, the government seems to  have gone AWOL.  There are few ministers appearing on TV or taking  visible action in the circumstances.  Despite all of the pressing needs, the government just does not seem to be responding to the situation.

The army is responding, for  sure.  But that seems to be the only competent organization currently functioning.  

In one of his first press conferences since the war started - in which Bibi agreed to take questions, he refused to take any direct responsibility for the current war. Later that night, at about 1 a.m., he doubled down and sent out a tweet attacking the heads of the army, intelligence, and other organizations - as being the ones responsible for this whole debacle. The reaction was unprecedented. Even ministers in his own government called for him to retract his venomous tweet and apologize. The next morning, Bibi deleted the tweet and apologized. There were statements made that "should not have been said," he proclaimed.  Although he apologized, the damage was done and it will be very hard, if not impossible, for Bibi to fix this situation.  

Obviously, it is hard to predict how and when the war will end. Perhaps a very successful outcome will somehow save Bibi's political future and  legacy though given the damage that Israel has suffered, it is hard to imagine that any outcome will be viewed as a great victory.  I would think that if there were an election today, Bibi would suffer a massive defeat.

Women in the Military

Under the current far right government that Bibi assembled, there were calls from some of his coalition partners to limit the number of women  in combat roles in the Israeli military and to prevent women  from being accepted into certain units.  

But various articles in the Israeli media have been written about so many heroic efforts by women in combat roles fighting off Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 and at other times throughout the war.  As one commentator  noted in Yediot Ahronot, the events of this war will  almost certainly put an end to any discussions suggesting that women are unsuited for combat at the highest levels.

Judea and Samaria - the "West Bank"

Part of the Hamas plan, apparently, was to trigger the involvement of Palestinians from Judea and  Samaria to  jump into the war and open up a new front. Although there have been fights with Palestinians, particularly in Jenin, this type of full Palestinian involvement has not materialized.  

At the same time, there have been reports,  in Israeli media of Jewish residents of these areas attacking Arab  Palestinians.  Obviously, in my view, this is totally unacceptable.  It must be condemned in the strongest language and the Israeli police and military forces must take all required steps to stop these attacks and arrest any perpetrators.

This is a major challenge with far right activists like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in the  government but hopefully Israel will wind up with a more balanced  and sane government once this war ends.  

Other

On a personal note, we have been lucky so far that there have been very few sirens in Ra'anana and few if any missiles have actually landed in our city.  Many other cities have had to  grapple with much more  difficult  situations.

But the overall situation in Israeli is very challenging  and stressful right now.  When asked how they are doing, a common response from Israelis these days is "the same as everyone else, I guess..."

We are worried about the safety of more than 240 hostages, about our soldiers, and about civilians everywhere. We have a great deal of uncertainty as to whether Hezbollah and Lebanon will enter the war and maybe even Iran. And we have no clear anticipated resolution that will lead to peace and security for  Israel and for the region.

I am planning to fly to Toronto for a short period later this week.  El Al is now almost the only airline flying regularly out of Tel-Aviv, so I will have to fly to Europe or the U.S. on El Al and then transfer to Toronto.

This is very difficult with family members in the army, ongoing missile attacks, and so much uncertainty. But maybe things will change dramatically soon and we will see an end to this war sooner  than anticipated.  I am not particularly hopeful but it can't hurt to try and be optimistic.