Pesach Update #2 - 2026

We were into our final preparations for our Passover Seder on Wednesday night.  The gefilte fish had been made, the Charoset was ready to go, the horseradish was hand grated, the chicken soup and matzah balls were hot and the roast beef with garlic confit (Kosher for Passover, kitnyot-free of course)(courtesy of our in-house chef) was out of the oven.  There were other dishes as well - these are just a few of the highlights.  As we were getting ready to leave around 4:30 p.m., we faced an onslaught of five warnings and sirens in a row - as a result of simultaneous missile launches from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. We headed for our saferoom and waited it out.

We started wondering if we were going to be able to make it to Kiryat Eqron for our family dinner or if the Iranians and their "Axis of Resistance/ Axis of Evil" allies - would be firing missiles all night long.  We packed some blankets with us in case we were going to need to stop the car on the way and find a safe spot near the side of the road.

We of course received phone calls and messages from friends and family members wondering if we should stay home and just have the Seder at our place.  But by 5 p.m. or so, everything had stopped and we decided to take our chances.  So off we went (crazy? perhaps. But that's  life in Israel).  We made it to Kiryat Eqron (about a 40 minute drive) uneventfully.  We started our Seder at about 7:40 p.m. and finished about 12:30 a.m. and had no sirens or warnings throughout the whole Seder.  

As you might know, there is only one Seder in Israel - and we were able to enjoy it thoroughly with some really nice wine, telling the story of the Exodus from Egypt as set out in the Haggadah, singing lots of songs, enjoying lots of food and most importantly spending the evening with our extended family - with the chance to pass on and teach our children these lessons and traditions. 

Once we had cleaned up, packed up all the food and finished whatever else needed to be done, we wound up with our first and only siren of the night at about 2 a.m.  Fortunately nothing landed anywhere near us.  We also had one bright and early at 7 a.m. (which is really bright and early after a Pesach seder - especially if you have fulfilled your obligation to drink four whole cups of wine....).

The rest of our Chag day was relatively quiet.  In the afternoon - we decided to go back to Eqron for a family barbecue.  I won't get into all of the details here - but barbecues on Chag days are common in observant Mizrahi communities in Israel. They take a more lenient approach to the idea of getting a charcoal fire going - as long as it was started from another existing flame.  

Again, we were able to get through all of the preparations, have all the food made, eat most of it and even get to our hot beverages - until we wound up with three missile alerts in a row.  So we joined some of the neighbourhood folks in the community bomb shelter and waited for about 20 minutes until the missile barrage was over.  One person was "lightly injured" in the nearby town of Mazkeret Batya (about 2 km away from Eqron) from pieces of shrapnel.  We went back to the house to finish our coffee and tea and it began to rain.  Much more welcome than missiles but still rain tends to send an outside party indoors.

It felt like a Chag day today - Friday - a holy day - since so many people in Israel are doing a "bridge" and turning the holiday into part of a three-day weekend.  Good Friday is not observed  here as a national holiday - only by the Christian communities living in Israel - so mostly, it was a regular Friday - but I think most people were still home lazing around after enjoying the first evening and full day of Pesach.

What's Next in the War?

I understand that President Trump gave a speech on Wednesday night at about 9 p.m. - after the Seders in Israel but in the middle of the Seders in North America. On the one hand, he pledged to finish the war within 2-3 weeks - or at least take the American forces out of the area in that timeframe.  On the other hand, he threatened to bomb Iran "back into the stone ages where they belong..." as he put it.  

Now I'm not sure that this kind of threat will engender the Iranians to rise up and form a U.S. friendly government - not really the kind of language that suggests that we are waiting to work with the Iranian people to build a better future.

In any event, it is hard to conclude that the U.S. has achieved any of its stated objectives at this point in the war.  The Iranian regime is still in place (perhaps even stronger, despite the loss of many key personnel).  The Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, as far as we know.  Apparently, the Iranians still have their enriched  uranium.  The Iranian missile supply has certainly been degraded but not eliminated.  And the regional proxies of Iran have not been eviscerated - though Hezbollah has certainly taken some  heavy blows.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime has strengthened its control over the Hormuz Strait, increased and improved its ties with China, Russia and apparently North Korea, and has so far refused to agree to anything close to U.S. terms.

If things do not change dramatically by April 6th at 8 p.m., President Trump has threatened a series of massive attacks, designed to secure some of the stated U.S. objectives.  Or he could announce another extension.  When I first heard of the 10 day "extension" that he gave the Iranians. my thought was that this was a pretext to concluding the operation - and claiming that a deal had been reached with the Iranians.

At this point, it does not appear that the Iranians have any demonstrable interest in negotiating a deal with the U.S. that would be acceptable to both sides.  As a result, I am leaning to the view that we will see some type of major attacks on Monday April 6th - if not before.  It may be an operation to secure the Straits of Hormuz.  Or it might be an operation to try and seize the enriched uranium that is in some underground Iranian storage facilities. Or perhaps the U.S. might try to seize Karg Island and its oil transportation and storage facilities.  I guess we will have to see.  It seems unlikely that the Iranians will capitulate between now and then. While it is still possible that Trump will declare victory and leave - I think a ramped-up attack is looking much more likely now.

Other Israel News

The Israeli Knesset, before its Pesach break, passed a budget for the year that is intended to enable the government to function until and beyond the elections (end of October 2026). The big news here was that the governing coalition passed  a budget even without passing the the "Draft Evasion Law" that had been promised to the Charedim (the ultra-religious Jews).  How did Netanyahu get around this?  He basically threw more money at the Charedim.  The government added in a few proposed "amendments" to the budget bill.

Normally such amendments only come from the opposition and are routinely voted down.  The opposition votes in favour, the government votes against and all such amendments are defeated.  Here there were more than 100 such amendments.

The governing coalition dropped a few amendments into the list  - including a proposed amendment called an "Education Amendment" - which gave hundreds of millions of shekels to the Charedim.  The opposition dropped the ball and believed that this was one of the amendments they had proposed as a form of filibuster.  As a result - they voted for the amendment - granting the Charedim hundreds of millions of shekels in exchange for supporting this year's budget.

Later the Knesset also passed a  death penalty bill - though the bill only includes the death penalty for Arab perpetrators of terrorism against Israeli targets.  Irrespective of one's view about capital punishment in general, this is a terrible bill - since it does not contain one equal universal standard for defining crimes that would warrant capital punishment.

Sadly, there have been acts of terror committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (called the "West Bank" by some) against Palestinian Arabs.  In my view, perpetrators of these acts should be arrested, prosecuted and subject to the full weight of the law.  Unfortunately, there have not been a sufficient number of arrests and the IDF has had to divert some of its resources to preventing these attacks.  Coupled with this one-sided capital punishment bill, this does not make for a great picture. We have enough problems to deal with - facing a world full of anti-Israel voices, even when we are morally correct.  We hardly need to fan these flames by enacting lopsided pieces of legislation or by failing to protect Palestinian Arabs  in areas that are under our control.

Passover Holiday Trips

Israelis usually love to travel during Passover - since some people have as much as two to three weeks of holidays.  Options are very limited now.  People can go down to Eilat - but the prices there are crazy.  One radio show was reviewing various costs - three day packages for 4 people - ranging from 16,000 shekels to 25,000 shekels.  Sure these packages might include food.  But that is still about $5,500 USD to $8,200 USD for a three day vacation in a moderate level hotel.  In normal times - people can fly to Rome/Athens/ other European destinations for a few hundred dollars per person - and would be nowhere near these costs.

Other people are travelling into the Sinai desert to enjoy the sun and beaches in Egypt.  Might not be the safest plan around for a variety of reasons - but it is generally "missile-free."  

Still others are taking flights from Aqaba or Taba airport - or even Sharm-El -Sheq airport, which is a few hours away from the Egyptian-Israeli border at Taba.  

I would say that overall, many Israelis have expressed the feeling that they feel "trapped" in Israel to some extent.  The airport is running very few flights, with low numbers of passengers per flight.  That being said, there are various flights available to Israel - on El Al  and other airlines.  To twist the famous lines from the Eagles' sign - "you can check in any time you like but you can never leave.... " We also have the "dark desert highways" -  and the "warm smell of colitas..." and with all of these missile warnings - lots  of "shimmering lights."  

It looks like we are staying put for now - and it seems to me that is likely to be the case for most Israelis for a number of weeks, if not longer.

Sports Comments

Since I am on a Hotel California lyrical binge (definitely one of my all time favourite songs), might as well reference another well  known line - "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969...".  In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it has been since 1967 - the year the Leafs last won the cup.  And here we are 57 years later and the Leafs were officially eliminated from contention yesterday.  I hope I will have the zechut to see a Leaf Stanley Cup in my lifetime but I am not optimistic these days.  

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens have won  10 Stanley Cups since 1967, with the last win being in 1993 (a most auspicious year for our family).   As someone born in Montreal, I have and ample supply of Habs' fandom in my blood.  I am always cheering for whichever Canadian teams are in the NHL playoffs. For the last 10 years that has included the Leafs - even though they haven't really gotten anywhere.  This year, the Canadiens are super-hot approaching the end of the season.  They will join the Edmonton Oilers as the only two Canadian terms that are in for sure - with chances still for Ottawa and Winnipeg to squeak in.  So I am hoping for a dark horse Montreal victory - but I would also be happy to see the Edmonton Oilers win the cup.  Either way, I'll definitely have less hockey to watch this year than some other years - with the Leafs not even making the playoffs. The NHL playoffs start this year on Saturday  April 18, 2026.  For those watching  from Israel, this means about 2 a.m. on Sunday April 19th.

The World Cup of Soccer, from June 11, 2026 to July 19, 2026 will attract much more viewership in Israel than the NHL playoffs (by multiples of thousands or tens of thousands) even though Israel is not participating.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to make it in since Israel is forced to compete in the European division instead of playing its neighbours.

One day, hopefully  sooner rather than later, Israel will have to play soccer luminaries like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in order to earn its berth - instead of having to beat countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.  Jordan and Iran are both in this year's tournament.  While Israel might not fare so well against Iran  in a soccer match, I am fairly confident that the Israeli side would be able to beat Jordan quite easily.  

Finally, I have to mention that I am super excited about baseball season and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Normally, I don't pay much attention to baseball until the hockey playoffs have ended. But with the Blue Jays' heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last year, and the various upgrades made by the team in the off-season, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic year for the Jays.  They are only 4-2 so far - but I think this is one of the most exciting baseball teams that Toronto has had in many years.  I am looking forward to getting to some games when I am in Toronto.  Tough to watch from Israel - especially weekday games that are on at 2 a.m. Israel time - but I'm often on Toronto hours anyways.

That's about it for now.  I want to wish everyone a "Mo'adim  L'Simchah" (or Chag Sameach if it is Chag for you - or if it was when I sent this) and a Shabbat Shalom.  I hope everyone enjoys the rest of this Pesach holiday and that there is some good news - "b'sorot tovot" soon.  For friends and readers celebrating Easter - I wish you a meaningful Good Friday and a wonderful Easter weekend.

Pre-Pesach and War Update 2026

I arrived back in Israel last night on a full El Al flight from London.  Okay - it wasn't totally full - the seat next to me was vacant - which was nice.  But otherwise, it was fairly full.  These days, the only airlines flying into Israel are El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa.  The flights coming in are full -  even though only a limited number are arriving.

It is much harder to leave.  Flights are leaving Israel with only 40 or 50 passengers and many of  these flights have been cancelled.  I know quite a number of people who have left Israel though Taba (at the Egyptian-Israeli border) and taken a cab or other transportation to the Sharm-El-Sheikh airport and flown from there.  Some  have been flying from  the Taba airport.  They fly to Cyprus, Athens, Istanbul or other European destinations - and then onwards to wherever they are going.

Some have been crossing into Jordan and flying on Arkia from Aqaba airport in Jordan.  However, apparently, today, the  Jordanian government announced a change in its policies and refused to allow Arkia flights to take off with a large number of Israelis stranded at the Aqaba airport.  This is a developing story - and I am not sure how this will get sorted out.  Apparently, some of these flights are now being rerouted to Taba airport but some have been cancelled altogether.  Sounds like quite a bit of chaos for people trying to leave Israel through these alternate routes. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government has been increasing the border fees that are being charged to people who want to cross from Israel into Egypt to leave from the  Taba airport - payable only in U.S. cash. So if you are crossing into Egypt from Israel, you should probably have at least $500 USD per person with you - arrive early - and be prepared for delays and cancellations.  As for Aqaba - that seems like an even less reliable option - unless you fly on a Jordanian airline - or  one that has clearly been approved by the  Jordanian government.

For my return flight, since it was so close to Pesach (which starts on Wednesday night) there were many people on the plane coming to Israel (or coming home) for the holiday.  Several men held a Mincha service before the plane left - so of course we knew our flight would be a safe one. The last twenty minutes of the flight were quite nerve wracking as everyone wondered if there would be a missile alert as we were coming in for landing (despite the prophylactic prayer service that had taken place earlier together with multiple people reading tefillat haderech - the prayer for the traveller).  But all was quiet and the plane landed uneventfully - at which point clapping, cheering and signing all broke out.  It was quite emotional. So perhaps the cynicism is unwarranted.  I'll let each person drawn their own conclusions.

The Ben Gurion airport was quite empty. This was the only flight arriving.  No flights were leaving at this time.  It still took a while to collect my suitcase (they made me check my carry on bag for "security reasons.") The roads were  also fairly empty and  it took only about 20 minutes to get back to Ra'anana once I had collected my bag.

At  1:30 a.m. we had our first missile alert - and had to go into the safe room (the "Mamad") until we received the "all clear."  Our next missile alert was at about 2 p.m. or so.  This contrasts quite a bit with yesterday where central Israel had 11 sirens through the first 2/3 of the day. From Friday's missile barrage, six people were reported as having been wounded, though none are in serious condition. Since I have been back (Thursday March 26th in the evening) there have been 5 missile alert sirens in Ra'anana - which means going into our protected safe room and waiting until the threat has passed - usually about 10 minutes in total).  We have not had one yet today - I think that last one was at some point on Saturday morning.

That's not to say that there have not been missile attacks today - there were apparently several in southern Israel including Beersheva and other places - including a reported direct hit on a factory.  But so far, missiles have not been aimed today at Tel-Aviv and its surrounding cities.

State of the War

As you might know, President Trump delivered an ultimatum last week.  If the Iranians did not agree to his demands by 5:30 p.m. on Friday (right after the markets closed), he was going to escalate the war and  attack Iranian  energy sites and/or seize the Hormuz Strait. The Iranians responded by threatening to attack sites across the Gulf and to take other escalated actions.  So we were left to speculate as to what would happen.  In one of his posts this week, Hillel Fuld, a well known blogger, went though the different scenarios and I do agree that he outlined them correctly:

1. One scenario is that if Iran does not acquiesce (and it seems highly unlikely that they would), the U.S. would escalate the war significantly.  This could include trying to find the Iranian enriched uranium, seizing Iranian oil-producing facilities or taking steps to open the Strait of Hormuz.  Iranians have threatened their own forms of escalation in response.  The U.S. has moved a significant number of marines and other service personnel to the region and it still seems like there is a decent chance that the U.S. will proceed with a massive escalation at some point.  Supporters of escalation include Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump's Evangelical supporters, MBS of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and most of the Israeli public (70-75% according to some poll numbers).  These different proponents believe that the job is not finished, that none of the war aims have been achieved yet and that the mission can actually be accomplished.

2. Another scenario is that Trump could simply look for the best off-ramp and take it.  It seems that he is being pushed in this direction by many non-Evangelical MAGA supporters.  He is also facing pressure from world leaders in many different countries, poll numbers in the U.S. showing vast disapproval of this war, other domestic opposition and pressures of the markets and the rising price of oil.  Trump of course, likes to portray his image as being dependent only on himself - so it is unclear that all of these pressures would really sway him. Especially if the Iranians are not prepared to  present a proposal that Trump can sell as a victory.

3. A third scenario would be for the U.S. to end its involvement and let Israel continue on its own versus Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is  not very likely in my view.  If Trump declares an end to the war - Israeli will almost surely follow, irrespective of whether Bibi has yet to receive his pardon or whether Israel agrees that the war should end.  The war may continue for a period  of time between Israel and Hezbollah until a deal can be reached - even after there is a deal with Iran.

Earlier in the week, I was wavering on which was more likely.  It looked to me like Trump was pulling the  plug on the whole war and looking for an off-ramp. However, he couldn't give the name of  anyone  he was actually speaking to, the Iranians were denying that they had agreed to anything - or were going to -   and more troops were being moved to the region. This was looking more like a potential U.S. surrender (like the way that the U.S. left Viet Nam).

By Wednesday, I was convinced that we would know by Friday night.  Either there would be a big announcement of a breakthrough deal - or a huge U.S. attack would begin Friday night. My thought was that a major escalation was starting to look a bit more likely.

However, on Friday, Trump announced that he was giving the Iranians 10 more days until April 6th to agree to his plan or reach a deal. Although a major U.S. escalation is still possible, this is looking much more like a U.S. capitulation.  The Iranians  do not appear to be giving in on any major points - and Trump appears to be increasingly interested in concluding this war.

However, as of mid-day today, Trump has continued to announce further troop deployments - either to ramp up the threat as a bluff - or because he has decided that he is going to escalate.  We will know the answer soon.

I think the situation is not looking great either way.

At the war's outset, the U.S. set out four war aims.  The aims included ending the Iranian nuclear program, changing the leadership in Iran, destroying the system of Iranian proxies getting support for terrorism from Iran (Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and destroying the Iranian long-range missile program. Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have made progress on items 1 and 4, it does not appear that any of these goals have really been accomplished.

The U.S. has now, as of Sunday March 29, 2026, announced that even more U.S. troops, planes and ships will be deployed to the region.  Unless Trump is able to negotiate something that looks like he has achieved at least one of his aims, we may see a major escalation starting by April 6th.

From the Israeli side of things, Israel has been advancing further into Lebanon in a bid to push Hezbollah back and stop or reduce attacks on Israel - especially the towns and cities in Israel's north.  Hezbollah may face a reduced access to funds as Iran is weakened but it is still a formidable challenge for Israel.  The solution is a peace deal with Lebanon in which there is an agreement that Hezbollah will not return to Israel's borders.  This need to be enforced, perhaps by some sort of international force that will actually do the job (unlike the UN which simply turned a blind eye to Hezbollah violations of past agreements).

Meanwhile, many Israeli reservists (which is the vast majority of people aged 21-45 in the country) have been called into reserve duty including, now, two of our family members, at least one of whom may have to miss our family Passover Seder. 

Pesach

Pesach begins with the Seder on Wednesday April 1, 2026.  Israel just changed its clocks and sprung ahead on Thursday night March 26/27 - so sundown in the centre of the country is  now 6:42 p.m., which means that the Seder can begin at about 7:30 p.m. after people come back from synagogue.  That  is about an hour earlier than Toronto, which is quite nice. There is only one Seder in Israel and only a total of 7 days of Pesach instead of  8 outside of  Israel.

Stores are well stocked with Passover products but do not go as crazy with the shelf lining paper etc., as they do in North America.  However, during Passover, Israeli stores do not even sell products that are not kosher for Passover - they block whole sections off and temporarily remove the bar codes from the cash register systems - so that you cannot even pay for the Hametz  products.  This is all dictated by Israeli law.

Israel Elections

As of now, Israeli elections are still scheduled to occur by the end of  October 31, 2026.  Hopefully this war will be over well before then.  I will hold off on making any  election predictions until closer to the election date.  

I would simply say that if there is no clear indication that  this war has been a success for Israel (and right now, that seems to be the case), the situation is likely to be similar to what it is now or perhaps a bit worse for Prime Minister Netanyahu.  On the other hand, if the United States and Israel wind up accomplishing one or two of the war goals that they had set out - that could  provide Netanyahu with a significant jump.

Mood

It has been a very difficult period for Israelis - going all the way back to 2020.  Since Covid and then the October 7th war - things have been in a state of uncertainty and extreme economic challenge for most of the 6 year period.

In speaking to various people, many are really finding the challenges difficult - economically, psychologically, physically.  So many Israelis have spent a huge amount of time serving in reserve duty. People are in and out of shelters.  Some people have safe areas in their homes or apartments - which is convenient and reasonably safe.  Other people have to run down to shared community shelters -  where people bring their pets, their friends, etc., Some of these shelters can hold more than a hundred people  -any time of day - even in the middle of the night.

All of that being said, I think Israelis are still generally optimistic and hopeful - that this will all work out well - and that the end result will have made things worthwhile.  I hope that this optimism is well founded.

Lighter Note

Someone sent me a meme the other day - that said "Israel is one of the few countries in which you have no idea when exactly your bus or train might come - but you know, to the minute, what time the missile attack will be arriving."  

Sports

Even in these crazy times, I have managed to catch a bit of the first two Toronto Blue Jay games -  both walk-off wins.  I think we are in for a super-exciting season for the Blue Jays.  That's not something that you can watch too easily when in Israel -  unless you have a VPN and a Sportsnet login.   

Usually this time of year, I am getting ready to watch some hockey playoffs - and see the Leafs go one or two rounds (usually just one).  This year, they collapsed even before the playoffs - so I am left with two Canadian teams to cheer for - the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers.  Small chance that either the Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets might also make it in but for  now, it is looking like only two Canadian teams.  Less hockey to watch, more time for work and keeping up with the news.

Oscars

This was one of the first years where I think I managed to watch all 10 Oscar nominees.  I actually enjoyed most of them.  A full article about all of the movies is for another time.

However, one theme that ran through at least three of the movies -  Train Dreams, Sentimental Value and Hamnet - was the theme of a family member working far away from his family for periods of time - and some of the challenges that creates.  One a writer, one a movie director and one a railway worker/ lumberjack.  Different types of work for sure, but a common theme of being away from family while young children grow up.  For someone who has been doing this for 17 years now, this is a theme that resonated quite a bit with me.  I would recommend all three movies - not  necessarily because of that theme. They were all really good movies otherwise.  

With that, I am going to wish everyone a happy, healthy and  Kosher Pesach. With the hope that we will soon see an end to these wars - and that we will have accomplished some of war goals aimed at creating conditions for a long lasting period of peace in Israel and throughout the Middle East.

War With Iran - Latest Blog March 1 2026

What would this blog be without an update article about the latest events in the Middle East?  Well, this is not a news blog - since I do not have the time to write a full-time blog about Israel and Middle East events. That might be a nice alternate way of making a living but for now this is just an unpaid hobby and perhaps a way of keeping in touch with many of my friends, family and others and updating with some of my perspectives from Israel. This is also not a "hasbara" blog, so I try not to fill it with propaganda or made up information (from either side). That does not mean that I do not write from a certain perspective - any writer does - but I am open to discussion of just about any of it usually. I wanted to provide a short update of some of things going on now, some of my thoughts about this situation and perhaps some comments on other related issues.

1. Update

As you probably know, Israel and the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iran early Saturday morning, Feb 28, Israel time (about 8 a.m. local time). The first part of the attack included an attack on the Iranian military and political leadership - who were apparently holding two separate, in-person meetings.  According to Israeli reports, some 40 senior leadership figures were killed in the first minutes of the attack including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomenei,  the Iranian Foreign Minister, the General of the IRGC, and many others.  The targets also included Iranian air defence installations.  Contrary to some fake Iranian reports, neither the Israelis nor the Americans targeted a girls' school - it was apparently hit by an errant Iranian missile.

The Iranians have responded by firing ballistic missiles, conventional rockets and missiles and drones at Israel and at a wide range of surrounding countries including Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Qatar and others. 

At least two ballistic missiles sent from Iran scored direct hits on residential buildings in Israel.  In Beit Shemesh, an Iranian missile hit a residential building and a synagogue - and landed directly in the building's bomb shelter.  At least 9 people were killed and more than 25 were injured.  There were no military targets nearby - this was strictly an attack on a residential building.  In Tel-Aviv, a residential building was also hit - with at least 3 Israelis reportedly killed and more than 20 injured. Many missiles, drones and other rockets have been intercepted by Israel and its allies - including the U.S., Jordan, and others.  But the systems are not foolproof.  If any of these ballistic missiles get through, they can cause enormous damage as they are carrying 400 kg of explosives.

Iran has also hit residential and commercial targets in Dubai, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as well as other places.

Israelis have been in and out of bomb shelters and safe rooms since the war started.  Not all Israelis have access to these facilities - some estimates are that only about 65% to 70% of Israelis have a safe place to go that is reasonably close by.

Meanwhile, the United States has also suffered some casualties to its servicer personnel.  At least 3 navy personnel were killed today by an Iranian missile and dozens more were apparently injured.  Details are still emerging.

I have listened to a wide range of  analysts assessing the likely scope of the current war - though of course things are unpredictable.  The U.S.-Israeli plan initially targeted the Iranian military and  political leadership and the various defence installations including ground to air military targets.  The goal is to establish Air Supremacy.  After that, Israel and the U.S. have the stated goals of targeting missile supplies and capabilities and the IRGC including the units that have been used to suppress Iranian civilian protests.  The other main target is to attack and destroy all of the Iranian nuclear installations.  Some reports have estimated that this plan is designed to take 5 to 7 days - some of predicated as much as a month.

Although the initial attacks appear to have been highly successful from a military standpoint, it is unclear what will come next.  The U.S. and Israel have stated that their goal is regime change - to be carried out by Iranians themselves and they are trying to set the conditions for that to happen.  Is it possible? Likely? I have not idea.  Clearly, if there were to be regime change - and a regime were to emerge that had the support of a large percentage of the Iranian population and was interested in peaceful relations with the U.S. and perhaps Israel, this would be a huge game changer in the Middle East and for the world. 

Here are a few other comments about  this war from some different perspectives.

A. Israel

For Israel, contrary to what various opponents of Israel might try to argue, this is not a whimsical war of aggression by Netanyahu or some unjustified attempt at a form of expansionism.

Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been the leading anti-Israel power in the Middle East.  It has openly called for destruction for Israel - and has dedicated itself to that goal. It has worked at building a nuclear program and openly stated that it intends to use the weapons to destroy Israel.  It has hosted annual Holocaust denial conferences, sponsored terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis around the world and sponsored terrorist groups across the middle east.

More recently, Iran trained Hamas fighters and helped plan the massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 and the incursions by Hamas into Israel.  Iran also activated Hezbollah (also Iranian trained and armed) to attack Israel from Lebanon shortly after October 7th and it armed the Houthis to attack Israel with ballistic missiles from Yemen.  Ultimately, Iran and Israeli engaged in direct fighting  for a period of 12 days in 2025.  Although there was a ceasefire, the Iranians began rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs. Some reports have indicated that they were very close to having an operational nuclear bomb.

For Israel, much of this is therefore existential - or, at least, likely to become existential.  Israel could not afford to wait  until it was attacked by a nuclear Iran and the clock has been ticking.

Although the timing works cynically well for Israel's besieged Prime Minister - especially with elections in Israel due to take place by October, it is more likely that this was a rare opportunity for him to fulfill his decades long goal of dismantling the Iranian threat because he happened to have a willing U.S. Presidential partner.

It is a significant risk for the people of Israel.   There could be a large number of Israeli casualties.  If there is no regime change in Iran, the situation could become even worse. And Israel could find itself even more  isolated on the world stage - with only President Trump in its corner.  On the other hand, if the war is successful and there is regime change in Iran, this could be a major watershed moment for the whole Middle East.

B. The United States

Although from the Israeli perspective, in my view, the war is fully justifiable, it is quite a different story for the United States.

First of all, as a lawyer, I am interested in the legal implications of governance and decision making - in Israel, the United States and Canada.  My understanding of the U.S. Constitution is that the  President must have congressional approval for launching a war.  Even President Bush received a resolution that included "all means necessary" before attacking Iraq.  If an operation is due to a pressing and immediate problem, requiring the U.S. to commit limited troops, that is apparently permissible - and was used initially with the Viet Nam war.  But this is an all out war.  I believe that it requires U.S. Congressional support.

Now that doesn't mean that I think congresspeople and senators would or should vote against it.  They would have to listen to the arguments and decide. But they would need to be part of the decision making.

From the U.S. perspective, there are many questions  to be answered.  What is the mid-range and long-range plan if the U.S. dismantles the Iranian leadership? Who will take over?  Will the U.S. commit troops to maintain order?  Will it just create chaos and then leave (See Afghanistan, Iraq etc.,).  What are the casualty estimates for U.S. service people? These are legitimate questions that need to answered and there are many others.

I also wonder what caused Trump to  believe that this attack was in his interest.  His popularity has been sinking to record lows.  I am not sure that this type of war, even if partially successful, is likely to bolster his support.

Although some might argue that  Prime Minister Netanyahu has Trump under some sort of magic spell and has convinced him that it is in the U.S. interest to execute this war, I do not believe that to be the case.  I do not believe that Bibi has the wherewithal,  monetarily, or otherwise to provide Trump with something sufficient in exchange for support.  And Trump is a very transactional president.

So why would Trump agree?  I think the answer is more likely Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is looking to shore up its position in the Middle East, take a leadership role in the Arab World and destroy its enemies.  Saudi Arabia has a wide range of  assets, tools and promises that it could make or provide to  Trump in exchange for support with this war.

For example, Saudi Arabia may have discussed post war oil arrangements with Trump. post-war weapons and security arrangements, a possible peace deal with Israel - maybe even some kind of support to a nascent Palestinian State.  Saudi Arabia has plenty to trade with Trump - more so  then Israel I would argue.  Earlier today, the Israel Times reported  that MBS of  Saudi Arabia had played a key role in "convincing" Trump to move ahead with this war.  In my view, most of the time Trump is "convinced" to do anything, there is some type of transaction involved.  I would love to know the terms but we may never find out  - or it might take quite a  while.  However, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit greatly from regime change in  Iran and  from an even  closer relationship with the United States. As well - Saudi Arabia's apparently close but hidden relationship with Israel could come out of  the closet.

C. Iran

I am probably not qualified to write about this from an Iranian perspective but I think a few comments are worth making.

On the one  hand, Iran clearly read the tea leaves and saw that a massive attack was coming - given all of the hardware that the U.S.  moved into the region.  While the Americans were making some fairly unrealistic demands of the Iranians, the Iranians seemed to have responded with maximum hubris - and what can only be described as a nonchalant response  to the impending war.  A similar mistake to that made by Saddam Hussein years ago.  I am not sure that the Iranians could have come up with sufficient concessions to stop the war, especially if the US. goal was regime change - but they probably could have made a better effort.

My second comment is that I would question the effectiveness of attacking Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others in the region.  Although the Iranian thinking  on this might be that this well pressure the U.S. into stopping the war, I believe that it will likely have the opposite effect and push those countries to further support a complete dismantling of the Iranian government.

Ultimately, I appreciate that the current Iranian government is in survival mode and is hoping to ride this out in any way it can - and stand up to the U.S. / Israeli efforts to support regime change.  I do not know if that is going to be possible - but attacking civilian targets, bringing in other countries into the fighting and making other non-credible threats to U.S. interests - do not seem to be steps that will assist the Iranians.

D. The Rest of the World

The world has been relatively quiet so far in response  to this war.  Canada's Prime Minister issued a lukewarm statement supporting the U.S.  and also stated that Canada had no part in this and was not going to get involved.  Many  other countries - such as Turkey - have been quieter than one  might have expected. I imagine that this will all change as the war goes on.  But the only country in any position to cause some real problems for the U.S. at this point is probably China.  Hopefully they will not have any interest in becoming involved.

E. Conclusion about the War

There have been demonstrations and counterdemonstrations all  around the world.  Many expatriate Iranians have been demonstrating, often with Israelis in the crowd, in favour of the U.S. -Israeli actions and  hoping for a much  better future for Iran.  Others have demonstrated against the war - including, in many cases, those who were supporting Hamas against Israel. 

According to newest reports, Iran has asked to meet with Trump as soon as possible to discuss the war - and Trump has agreed (while telling them it took them way too long). 

At the same time, there is talk that the civilian anti-government demonstrations within Iran that took place in early January may re-start - this time supported to some degree by U.S. and Israeli actions including the possibility of military assistance.

Israeli news has just reported that Trump has had conversations with MBS of Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister of  Netanyahu and the leaders of  Bahrain - and that things might move quicker than expected towards a cease fire.

As discussed above, from Israel's perspective, the only real "win" in this war will be a regime change  - or a major directional change by whoever takes over the Iranian government.  For the U.S., Trump would probably like to see this end as quickly as possible and be able to claim victory.  Hard to predict how this will play out.

Other

I was supposed to be back in Israeli for Purim and this will be the first time in 16 years or so that I am not in Israel for Purim.  I usually read chapter 8 of Megillat Esther - and sometimes 9 and 10 as well.  But  Israeli air space is closed until Tuesday at earliest. For now, I am hoping that I will be back in time for  Pesach.

There are many other topics to write about - hockey, the upcoming academy awards, the travel situation for flights to and from Israel and other topics.  But I am going to leave these topics for now and hope for a speedy and successful conclusion to this war - peace for Israel and the whole middle east - and
with freedom for Iranians - meaning a government that they install and support - and hopefully one that will be committed to long term peaceful middle east - with all of its neighbours- including Israel.

And wishing everyone a happy and healthy Purim!

Latest Blog From Israel - February 2026

Good evening from Ra'anana Israel.  It has been a busy few months but I am going to cover a variety of topics - not necessarily as much focused on politics or Israeli legal developments as some of my more recent blogs.  Instead, perhaps a few other stories that might interest you.  Of course, I will probably stick some discussion of Israeli politics in here but I'm starting a bit differently.  Here goes.

1. Milk Revolution

I find this one fascinating.  "New Milk" or "HeHalav HeHadash" in Hebrew, is a new cow-free dairy product, that features real milk proteins which are identical to dairy milk.  It is produced and sold by Gad Dairies.  The "milk" is produced using yeast fermentation to create proteins in labs.  No cows, no animal product of any kind.  New Milk is designed to taste, look, smell and act like regular milk but it is lactose free and has lower sugar content then regular milk.  

Most interestingly, it has been certified as Kosher and Pareve (Neither dairy nor meat) by the highest levels of Kashruth authorities in Israel and by the OU in the U.S.  

For those who keep kosher - and would like a cappuccino or other traditionally dairy dessert after a meat meal, the options until now have included products made with soy, coconut, almonds or rice.  (Maybe there are others as well).  But this is now a game changer.  Since it looks, tastes and acts like regular milk, you can now have a regular cappuccino after a meat meal - or cheeses can be made with this product. Or many other traditionally dairy desserts. 

In Israel, for example, most wedding halls are strictly Kosher and most are designated as having meat kitchens.  After a wedding meal, you can usually get a cappuccino made using one of the milks I have mentioned above - soy, coconut, almond, rice etc.,  But these usually have their own unique taste and are not nearly the same as milk.  (Which is fine because we are used to having these rules in place).

But now - you will be able to order a cappuccino that will pretty much look and taste like a regular cappuccino.

That's just one small mention of the uses of this new milk but if it takes off, it will probably spread like wildfire in the observant Jewish community.  It is probably not Kosher for Passover (made from yeast) and is apparently nut free and lactose free.  And of course no cows are required. Sales just began in October 2025.  

I bought a container of it this week and I intend to try it.  I'll have to report back.

2. Sports News

I know some of you roll your eyes when you get to the sports section of my blog (if it is included) but it is usually connected in some way to the theme of the blog.  So bear with me.

A. Olympics

Israel has sent a delegation of 9 athletes to the 2026 Olympics in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, competing in five different sports.  Israel has two skiers (alpine skiing), 4 bobsledders (a men's team), 1 cross-country skier, 1 figure skater and 1 brave soul competing in the  "skeleton."

Israel's bobsled team reported that their apartment in the Olympic village was burglarized on February 7th. Their suitcases, shoes, equipment and  passports were stolen.  The robbery is being investigated by Italian police.

Not sure whether Israel has a chance at any medals but it is nice to see some representation.

There are also at least 8 other Jewish (non-Israeli) athletes participating including Aerin Frankel, the Team USA women's hockey goaltender, Avital Carroll, a mogul skier representing Austria, Emery Lehman, a speed skater from the U.S., Jack Hughes, Quinn Hughes and Jeremy Swayman, all hockey players for the U.S. men's team, and Korey Dropkin, a curler for the U.S. Yes, there are Jewish curlers.

There may be others but those are the names  I have been able to find.

Here in Israel, there are at least 4 different cable networks (sports channels) showing Olympics night and  day - including the various hockey games.  I watched the Canadian women secure their first victory and we are all set to see them face off against the Czech team tonight.  I am really looking forward to the Canadian "dream team"  hitting the ice later this week - the Canadian men's hockey team - truly an amazing chance to see Canada's best hockey players all on one team.

B. Super Bowl

Congratulations to the  Seattle Seahawks on their Superbowl win over the New England Patriots.  It was not the  most  exciting game ever though the Seattle defence was incredible.   I watched it on an Israeli  sports channel which featured Israeli commentators using  all sorts of funny lines.  My favourite was (In English with a thick Israeli accent) "the New England Patriots offence is very offensive tonight..."

Here we watched the game starting at 1:30 a.m., after seeing the Green Day kick off show at 1 a.m. I think bed time was around 5:30 a.m. after watching the final ceremonies etc.,

Can't say that I loved the Bad Bunny half-time show, though I have read some  interesting articles about everything that was referenced and can appreciate that much thought was put into it even if it wasn't my type of music.  For me, it was probably more enjoyable than the previous year's Kendrick Lamar show though there was also quite a bit of thought put into that performance - even if the music  genre wasn't my thing. I had no interest in watching the Turning Point alternative half-time show.  I'll leave it at that.

Once the Olympics end, I get a bunch of free time for other pursuits - unless I become an avid March Madness college basketball fan - though that is looking fairly unlikely as of now.  By mid to late April, hockey playoffs will start and that is one of my favourite things to watch and can be all consuming until mid-June.

3. Flights To and From Israel

As you may know, Air Canada resumed its direct flights to Israel from Toronto and I have been taking advantage of that.  The prices have been okay though they have not been filling up the planes -  perhaps because of the uncertainty as to whether Air Canada will continue to fly.  Having a direct flight is terrific, especially after not having any direct flights available during the war and before that during Covid.

El Al was apparently considering adding a range of new cities - some were hoping that would include Toronto.  But instead, El Al announced a number of new direct destinations from Israel - Hanoi, Manila and Seoul and a number of others - but still no Toronto.

Meanwhile, Air Canada completely revamped its Aeroplan program effective January 1, 2026, to focus almost exclusively on money spent with Air Canada rather than miles travelled.  This is a terrible change for long distance "commuters" who were able to pick up lots of Aeroplan miles at a fairly reasonable cost. Now, the more you spend, the more Aeroplan points you get and that is just about it.

To give you an example, I was flying "Flex" between Toronto and Tel-Aviv, which meant earning 5,750 each way or 11,500 for a round trip in 2025.  In addition, "Super Elite" members would get a bonus of another 5,750 each way, while 75K status members would get 4,312.  This means that for a round trip up to December 31, 2025, I was earning a total of about 23,000 Aeroplan miles for one round trip to Israel.

I flew back in January, from Toronto to Tel Aviv, in flex and I earned a total (including bonuses) of 4,875 (instead of 11,500 including bonuses).

So for flyers like me, the program represents a massive devaluation.

On the other hand, if you go to Israel from Toronto  4 times a year and you buy business class tickets, let's say at $8,000 Canadian per round trip ticket, you would make Super Elite and enjoy all of the benefits that entails.

4. Stuart Razin Z"L

I recently lost a good friend, teacher, mentor (and avid blog reader of mine).  Stuart Razin z"l passed away on January 17th.  

Stuart had served as the Executive Director of Beth Tikvah Synagogue in Toronto where had played a key role in overseeing the growth of Beth Tikvah into a 1000+ member shul.

Before taking on the Executive Director role, he had served as the Principal of the school and had run the Hebrew High School program.  I had the privilege of studying Holocaust literature with him.

I also worked with him as a Board Member of the shul while he was the Executive Director.  One of the most memorable events that we worked on together was a fundraising concert where the great Israeli singer Chava Alberstein came to perform at Beth Tikvah.

Stuart and his late first wife Marsha Razin z"l made Aliyah to Israel, where their three children lived (or were in the process of moving to). Marsha was a wonderful and engaging teacher.  Stuart and Marsha shared a wonderful life together for many years. After Marsha died, Stuart remarried to Jennifer.  Stuart was tragically predeceased by his son Gideon 2019.  Stuart will be missed by his large extended family of children, grandchildren, great grandchildren and so many people who loved him.

Over the years, Stuart and I spoke regularly.  He attended  at our family simchas and we would get together with him regularly.

Stuart was always up to date on the latest current events.  He took an active interest in Israeli, American and Canadian politics and loved to speak for hours about the latest developments.  He would regularly read this blog and then call or write to me to discuss things that I wrote.

While at Beth Tikvah, Stuart had been known for his amazing memory and his attention to each and every one of the members. He took a keen interest in people.  He would ask about each family member, how they were doing, what they were up to - and then he would remember all of the information and keep it updated. He genuinely cared about each and every one of the people with whom he interacted.

For me and my family, he was always a pleasure to speak to, and always had interesting things to say and principled points of view.  He was a true mensch and someone who I will dearly miss.

5. Israel - Latest News

I do not have too much to write this time - not because of a lack of topics - but more in the interest of keeping this blog to a reasonable length.  Instead I will quickly mention a few things:

A. Iran

We continue to wait to see what the U.S. will do and whether it will attack Iran, either to harm Iran's nuclear ambitions, to damage Iran's missile program or to try to foment regime change in Iran. There has been lots of rhetoric, lots of threats and lots of speculation.  An attack on Iran may well draw Israel into a war and we may face large barrages of missile attacks.  Whether this will occur or not is unclear - and probably depends as much as anything on which side of the bed President Trump wakes up on any given day. Israelis seem to be relatively relaxed about it, all things considered, but it is a real powder keg that could go off any day.

B. Gaza

There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty as to how Gaza will be governed going forward, whether Hamas will disarm, whether there will be further rounds of intense fighting - and what, if anything, the U.S. and the international community will do to affect things in Gaza.  Frankly, I have no idea where this is all headed but I am hoping that there will be some level of stability for Gaza and in the whole region.

C. Syria

With U.S. involvement, some progress seems to be taking place with Syria. For example, the Syrian government  this week announced that it would restore a synagogue in Aleppo and permit or even encourage free Jewish worship there.  If that is the start of a genuine change - we might even be able to visit Damascus in my lifetime (and perhaps Beirut).  Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but anything is possible and these are really amazing developments.

D. Netanyahu's Trial

Prime Minister Netanyahu's trial continues to plug along.  He is involved in several "fronts" to try to get out of it - including a possible plea bargain deal, a request for a pardon from the President of Israel (including recruiting Trump to pressure the President of  Israel) and the possibility of a legislated end to the trial (which would probably never get passed the Israeli Supreme Court).   The clock is ticking for Bibi and I believe he is hoping to get this all resolved before Israel's elections - scheduled to take place later this year. For Bibi trial watchers, this should be a really interesting period of  time.

E. Israeli Elections

Israel will have an election this year before the end of October 2026.  Some new parties are still in the process of amalgamating, registering or redefining themselves.  We will probably not have the final list  of competing parties and configurations until much closer to the election date.  However, the polls are now predicting a fairly close race - with Prime  Minister Netanyahu still having a reasonable shot at winning once again, much to the  chagrin of his many detractors.  Israeli politics promises to be super interesting over the coming months.

Okay these were all of the things I planned to cover for now.  I will probably write a few much more political blogs in the coming months - as Israeli elections approach.  For now, let's all  enjoying the remaining month or so of winter and get ready for Purim which takes place starting on March 2, 2026 in the evening.  Here in Ra'anana it is about 22C during the day.  While I was in Toronto, we enjoyed a few days of -24C weather - which meant a 46C spread from one place to the other.  That's a very big shift in temperature. 

So to those of you in North America - it's "stay warm" and to those here in Israel - it's "enjoy the weather"  (even though Israelis are upset that it is not yet warm enough to swim in the Mediterranean - though that can change as soon as early March).

Best regards to all - and for the most part, based on those reading this - stay warm!