Pre-Pesach and War Update 2026

I arrived back in Israel last night on a full El Al flight from London.  Okay - it wasn't totally full - the seat next to me was vacant - which was nice.  But otherwise, it was fairly full.  These days, the only airlines flying into Israel are El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa.  The flights coming in are full -  even though only a limited number are arriving.

It is much harder to leave.  Flights are leaving Israel with only 40 or 50 passengers and many of  these flights have been cancelled.  I know quite a number of people who have left Israel though Taba (at the Egyptian-Israeli border) and taken a cab or other transportation to the Sharm-El-Sheikh airport and flown from there.  Some  have been flying from  the Taba airport.  They fly to Cyprus, Athens, Istanbul or other European destinations - and then onwards to wherever they are going.

Some have been crossing into Jordan and flying on Arkia from Aqaba airport in Jordan.  However, apparently, today, the  Jordanian government announced a change in its policies and refused to allow Arkia flights to take off with a large number of Israelis stranded at the Aqaba airport.  This is a developing story - and I am not sure how this will get sorted out.  Apparently, some of these flights are now being rerouted to Taba airport but some have been cancelled altogether.  Sounds like quite a bit of chaos for people trying to leave Israel through these alternate routes. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government has been increasing the border fees that are being charged to people who want to cross from Israel into Egypt to leave from the  Taba airport - payable only in U.S. cash. So if you are crossing into Egypt from Israel, you should probably have at least $500 USD per person with you - arrive early - and be prepared for delays and cancellations.  As for Aqaba - that seems like an even less reliable option - unless you fly on a Jordanian airline - or  one that has clearly been approved by the  Jordanian government.

For my return flight, since it was so close to Pesach (which starts on Wednesday night) there were many people on the plane coming to Israel (or coming home) for the holiday.  Several men held a Mincha service before the plane left - so of course we knew our flight would be a safe one. The last twenty minutes of the flight were quite nerve wracking as everyone wondered if there would be a missile alert as we were coming in for landing (despite the prophylactic prayer service that had taken place earlier together with multiple people reading tefillat haderech - the prayer for the traveller).  But all was quiet and the plane landed uneventfully - at which point clapping, cheering and signing all broke out.  It was quite emotional. So perhaps the cynicism is unwarranted.  I'll let each person drawn their own conclusions.

The Ben Gurion airport was quite empty. This was the only flight arriving.  No flights were leaving at this time.  It still took a while to collect my suitcase (they made me check my carry on bag for "security reasons.") The roads were  also fairly empty and  it took only about 20 minutes to get back to Ra'anana once I had collected my bag.

At  1:30 a.m. we had our first missile alert - and had to go into the safe room (the "Mamad") until we received the "all clear."  Our next missile alert was at about 2 p.m. or so.  This contrasts quite a bit with yesterday where central Israel had 11 sirens through the first 2/3 of the day. From Friday's missile barrage, six people were reported as having been wounded, though none are in serious condition. Since I have been back (Thursday March 26th in the evening) there have been 5 missile alert sirens in Ra'anana - which means going into our protected safe room and waiting until the threat has passed - usually about 10 minutes in total).  We have not had one yet today - I think that last one was at some point on Saturday morning.

That's not to say that there have not been missile attacks today - there were apparently several in southern Israel including Beersheva and other places - including a reported direct hit on a factory.  But so far, missiles have not been aimed today at Tel-Aviv and its surrounding cities.

State of the War

As you might know, President Trump delivered an ultimatum last week.  If the Iranians did not agree to his demands by 5:30 p.m. on Friday (right after the markets closed), he was going to escalate the war and  attack Iranian  energy sites and/or seize the Hormuz Strait. The Iranians responded by threatening to attack sites across the Gulf and to take other escalated actions.  So we were left to speculate as to what would happen.  In one of his posts this week, Hillel Fuld, a well known blogger, went though the different scenarios and I do agree that he outlined them correctly:

1. One scenario is that if Iran does not acquiesce (and it seems highly unlikely that they would), the U.S. would escalate the war significantly.  This could include trying to find the Iranian enriched uranium, seizing Iranian oil-producing facilities or taking steps to open the Strait of Hormuz.  Iranians have threatened their own forms of escalation in response.  The U.S. has moved a significant number of marines and other service personnel to the region and it still seems like there is a decent chance that the U.S. will proceed with a massive escalation at some point.  Supporters of escalation include Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump's Evangelical supporters, MBS of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and most of the Israeli public (70-75% according to some poll numbers).  These different proponents believe that the job is not finished, that none of the war aims have been achieved yet and that the mission can actually be accomplished.

2. Another scenario is that Trump could simply look for the best off-ramp and take it.  It seems that he is being pushed in this direction by many non-Evangelical MAGA supporters.  He is also facing pressure from world leaders in many different countries, poll numbers in the U.S. showing vast disapproval of this war, other domestic opposition and pressures of the markets and the rising price of oil.  Trump of course, likes to portray his image as being dependent only on himself - so it is unclear that all of these pressures would really sway him. Especially if the Iranians are not prepared to  present a proposal that Trump can sell as a victory.

3. A third scenario would be for the U.S. to end its involvement and let Israel continue on its own versus Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is  not very likely in my view.  If Trump declares an end to the war - Israeli will almost surely follow, irrespective of whether Bibi has yet to receive his pardon or whether Israel agrees that the war should end.  The war may continue for a period  of time between Israel and Hezbollah until a deal can be reached - even after there is a deal with Iran.

Earlier in the week, I was wavering on which was more likely.  It looked to me like Trump was pulling the  plug on the whole war and looking for an off-ramp. However, he couldn't give the name of  anyone  he was actually speaking to, the Iranians were denying that they had agreed to anything - or were going to -   and more troops were being moved to the region. This was looking more like a potential U.S. surrender (like the way that the U.S. left Viet Nam).

By Wednesday, I was convinced that we would know by Friday night.  Either there would be a big announcement of a breakthrough deal - or a huge U.S. attack would begin Friday night. My thought was that a major escalation was starting to look a bit more likely.

However, on Friday, Trump announced that he was giving the Iranians 10 more days until April 6th to agree to his plan or reach a deal. Although a major U.S. escalation is still possible, this is looking much more like a U.S. capitulation.  The Iranians  do not appear to be giving in on any major points - and Trump appears to be increasingly interested in concluding this war.

However, as of mid-day today, Trump has continued to announce further troop deployments - either to ramp up the threat as a bluff - or because he has decided that he is going to escalate.  We will know the answer soon.

I think the situation is not looking great either way.

At the war's outset, the U.S. set out four war aims.  The aims included ending the Iranian nuclear program, changing the leadership in Iran, destroying the system of Iranian proxies getting support for terrorism from Iran (Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and destroying the Iranian long-range missile program. Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have made progress on items 1 and 4, it does not appear that any of these goals have really been accomplished.

The U.S. has now, as of Sunday March 29, 2026, announced that even more U.S. troops, planes and ships will be deployed to the region.  Unless Trump is able to negotiate something that looks like he has achieved at least one of his aims, we may see a major escalation starting by April 6th.

From the Israeli side of things, Israel has been advancing further into Lebanon in a bid to push Hezbollah back and stop or reduce attacks on Israel - especially the towns and cities in Israel's north.  Hezbollah may face a reduced access to funds as Iran is weakened but it is still a formidable challenge for Israel.  The solution is a peace deal with Lebanon in which there is an agreement that Hezbollah will not return to Israel's borders.  This need to be enforced, perhaps by some sort of international force that will actually do the job (unlike the UN which simply turned a blind eye to Hezbollah violations of past agreements).

Meanwhile, many Israeli reservists (which is the vast majority of people aged 21-45 in the country) have been called into reserve duty including, now, two of our family members, at least one of whom may have to miss our family Passover Seder. 

Pesach

Pesach begins with the Seder on Wednesday April 1, 2026.  Israel just changed its clocks and sprung ahead on Thursday night March 26/27 - so sundown in the centre of the country is  now 6:42 p.m., which means that the Seder can begin at about 7:30 p.m. after people come back from synagogue.  That  is about an hour earlier than Toronto, which is quite nice. There is only one Seder in Israel and only a total of 7 days of Pesach instead of  8 outside of  Israel.

Stores are well stocked with Passover products but do not go as crazy with the shelf lining paper etc., as they do in North America.  However, during Passover, Israeli stores do not even sell products that are not kosher for Passover - they block whole sections off and temporarily remove the bar codes from the cash register systems - so that you cannot even pay for the Hametz  products.  This is all dictated by Israeli law.

Israel Elections

As of now, Israeli elections are still scheduled to occur by the end of  October 31, 2026.  Hopefully this war will be over well before then.  I will hold off on making any  election predictions until closer to the election date.  

I would simply say that if there is no clear indication that  this war has been a success for Israel (and right now, that seems to be the case), the situation is likely to be similar to what it is now or perhaps a bit worse for Prime Minister Netanyahu.  On the other hand, if the United States and Israel wind up accomplishing one or two of the war goals that they had set out - that could  provide Netanyahu with a significant jump.

Mood

It has been a very difficult period for Israelis - going all the way back to 2020.  Since Covid and then the October 7th war - things have been in a state of uncertainty and extreme economic challenge for most of the 6 year period.

In speaking to various people, many are really finding the challenges difficult - economically, psychologically, physically.  So many Israelis have spent a huge amount of time serving in reserve duty. People are in and out of shelters.  Some people have safe areas in their homes or apartments - which is convenient and reasonably safe.  Other people have to run down to shared community shelters -  where people bring their pets, their friends, etc., Some of these shelters can hold more than a hundred people  -any time of day - even in the middle of the night.

All of that being said, I think Israelis are still generally optimistic and hopeful - that this will all work out well - and that the end result will have made things worthwhile.  I hope that this optimism is well founded.

Lighter Note

Someone sent me a meme the other day - that said "Israel is one of the few countries in which you have no idea when exactly your bus or train might come - but you know, to the minute, what time the missile attack will be arriving."  

Sports

Even in these crazy times, I have managed to catch a bit of the first two Toronto Blue Jay games -  both walk-off wins.  I think we are in for a super-exciting season for the Blue Jays.  That's not something that you can watch too easily when in Israel -  unless you have a VPN and a Sportsnet login.   

Usually this time of year, I am getting ready to watch some hockey playoffs - and see the Leafs go one or two rounds (usually just one).  This year, they collapsed even before the playoffs - so I am left with two Canadian teams to cheer for - the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers.  Small chance that either the Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets might also make it in but for  now, it is looking like only two Canadian teams.  Less hockey to watch, more time for work and keeping up with the news.

Oscars

This was one of the first years where I think I managed to watch all 10 Oscar nominees.  I actually enjoyed most of them.  A full article about all of the movies is for another time.

However, one theme that ran through at least three of the movies -  Train Dreams, Sentimental Value and Hamnet - was the theme of a family member working far away from his family for periods of time - and some of the challenges that creates.  One a writer, one a movie director and one a railway worker/ lumberjack.  Different types of work for sure, but a common theme of being away from family while young children grow up.  For someone who has been doing this for 17 years now, this is a theme that resonated quite a bit with me.  I would recommend all three movies - not  necessarily because of that theme. They were all really good movies otherwise.  

With that, I am going to wish everyone a happy, healthy and  Kosher Pesach. With the hope that we will soon see an end to these wars - and that we will have accomplished some of war goals aimed at creating conditions for a long lasting period of peace in Israel and throughout the Middle East.

War With Iran - Latest Blog March 1 2026

What would this blog be without an update article about the latest events in the Middle East?  Well, this is not a news blog - since I do not have the time to write a full-time blog about Israel and Middle East events. That might be a nice alternate way of making a living but for now this is just an unpaid hobby and perhaps a way of keeping in touch with many of my friends, family and others and updating with some of my perspectives from Israel. This is also not a "hasbara" blog, so I try not to fill it with propaganda or made up information (from either side). That does not mean that I do not write from a certain perspective - any writer does - but I am open to discussion of just about any of it usually. I wanted to provide a short update of some of things going on now, some of my thoughts about this situation and perhaps some comments on other related issues.

1. Update

As you probably know, Israel and the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iran early Saturday morning, Feb 28, Israel time (about 8 a.m. local time). The first part of the attack included an attack on the Iranian military and political leadership - who were apparently holding two separate, in-person meetings.  According to Israeli reports, some 40 senior leadership figures were killed in the first minutes of the attack including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomenei,  the Iranian Foreign Minister, the General of the IRGC, and many others.  The targets also included Iranian air defence installations.  Contrary to some fake Iranian reports, neither the Israelis nor the Americans targeted a girls' school - it was apparently hit by an errant Iranian missile.

The Iranians have responded by firing ballistic missiles, conventional rockets and missiles and drones at Israel and at a wide range of surrounding countries including Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Qatar and others. 

At least two ballistic missiles sent from Iran scored direct hits on residential buildings in Israel.  In Beit Shemesh, an Iranian missile hit a residential building and a synagogue - and landed directly in the building's bomb shelter.  At least 9 people were killed and more than 25 were injured.  There were no military targets nearby - this was strictly an attack on a residential building.  In Tel-Aviv, a residential building was also hit - with at least 3 Israelis reportedly killed and more than 20 injured. Many missiles, drones and other rockets have been intercepted by Israel and its allies - including the U.S., Jordan, and others.  But the systems are not foolproof.  If any of these ballistic missiles get through, they can cause enormous damage as they are carrying 400 kg of explosives.

Iran has also hit residential and commercial targets in Dubai, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as well as other places.

Israelis have been in and out of bomb shelters and safe rooms since the war started.  Not all Israelis have access to these facilities - some estimates are that only about 65% to 70% of Israelis have a safe place to go that is reasonably close by.

Meanwhile, the United States has also suffered some casualties to its servicer personnel.  At least 3 navy personnel were killed today by an Iranian missile and dozens more were apparently injured.  Details are still emerging.

I have listened to a wide range of  analysts assessing the likely scope of the current war - though of course things are unpredictable.  The U.S.-Israeli plan initially targeted the Iranian military and  political leadership and the various defence installations including ground to air military targets.  The goal is to establish Air Supremacy.  After that, Israel and the U.S. have the stated goals of targeting missile supplies and capabilities and the IRGC including the units that have been used to suppress Iranian civilian protests.  The other main target is to attack and destroy all of the Iranian nuclear installations.  Some reports have estimated that this plan is designed to take 5 to 7 days - some of predicated as much as a month.

Although the initial attacks appear to have been highly successful from a military standpoint, it is unclear what will come next.  The U.S. and Israel have stated that their goal is regime change - to be carried out by Iranians themselves and they are trying to set the conditions for that to happen.  Is it possible? Likely? I have not idea.  Clearly, if there were to be regime change - and a regime were to emerge that had the support of a large percentage of the Iranian population and was interested in peaceful relations with the U.S. and perhaps Israel, this would be a huge game changer in the Middle East and for the world. 

Here are a few other comments about  this war from some different perspectives.

A. Israel

For Israel, contrary to what various opponents of Israel might try to argue, this is not a whimsical war of aggression by Netanyahu or some unjustified attempt at a form of expansionism.

Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been the leading anti-Israel power in the Middle East.  It has openly called for destruction for Israel - and has dedicated itself to that goal. It has worked at building a nuclear program and openly stated that it intends to use the weapons to destroy Israel.  It has hosted annual Holocaust denial conferences, sponsored terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis around the world and sponsored terrorist groups across the middle east.

More recently, Iran trained Hamas fighters and helped plan the massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 and the incursions by Hamas into Israel.  Iran also activated Hezbollah (also Iranian trained and armed) to attack Israel from Lebanon shortly after October 7th and it armed the Houthis to attack Israel with ballistic missiles from Yemen.  Ultimately, Iran and Israeli engaged in direct fighting  for a period of 12 days in 2025.  Although there was a ceasefire, the Iranians began rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs. Some reports have indicated that they were very close to having an operational nuclear bomb.

For Israel, much of this is therefore existential - or, at least, likely to become existential.  Israel could not afford to wait  until it was attacked by a nuclear Iran and the clock has been ticking.

Although the timing works cynically well for Israel's besieged Prime Minister - especially with elections in Israel due to take place by October, it is more likely that this was a rare opportunity for him to fulfill his decades long goal of dismantling the Iranian threat because he happened to have a willing U.S. Presidential partner.

It is a significant risk for the people of Israel.   There could be a large number of Israeli casualties.  If there is no regime change in Iran, the situation could become even worse. And Israel could find itself even more  isolated on the world stage - with only President Trump in its corner.  On the other hand, if the war is successful and there is regime change in Iran, this could be a major watershed moment for the whole Middle East.

B. The United States

Although from the Israeli perspective, in my view, the war is fully justifiable, it is quite a different story for the United States.

First of all, as a lawyer, I am interested in the legal implications of governance and decision making - in Israel, the United States and Canada.  My understanding of the U.S. Constitution is that the  President must have congressional approval for launching a war.  Even President Bush received a resolution that included "all means necessary" before attacking Iraq.  If an operation is due to a pressing and immediate problem, requiring the U.S. to commit limited troops, that is apparently permissible - and was used initially with the Viet Nam war.  But this is an all out war.  I believe that it requires U.S. Congressional support.

Now that doesn't mean that I think congresspeople and senators would or should vote against it.  They would have to listen to the arguments and decide. But they would need to be part of the decision making.

From the U.S. perspective, there are many questions  to be answered.  What is the mid-range and long-range plan if the U.S. dismantles the Iranian leadership? Who will take over?  Will the U.S. commit troops to maintain order?  Will it just create chaos and then leave (See Afghanistan, Iraq etc.,).  What are the casualty estimates for U.S. service people? These are legitimate questions that need to answered and there are many others.

I also wonder what caused Trump to  believe that this attack was in his interest.  His popularity has been sinking to record lows.  I am not sure that this type of war, even if partially successful, is likely to bolster his support.

Although some might argue that  Prime Minister Netanyahu has Trump under some sort of magic spell and has convinced him that it is in the U.S. interest to execute this war, I do not believe that to be the case.  I do not believe that Bibi has the wherewithal,  monetarily, or otherwise to provide Trump with something sufficient in exchange for support.  And Trump is a very transactional president.

So why would Trump agree?  I think the answer is more likely Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is looking to shore up its position in the Middle East, take a leadership role in the Arab World and destroy its enemies.  Saudi Arabia has a wide range of  assets, tools and promises that it could make or provide to  Trump in exchange for support with this war.

For example, Saudi Arabia may have discussed post war oil arrangements with Trump. post-war weapons and security arrangements, a possible peace deal with Israel - maybe even some kind of support to a nascent Palestinian State.  Saudi Arabia has plenty to trade with Trump - more so  then Israel I would argue.  Earlier today, the Israel Times reported  that MBS of  Saudi Arabia had played a key role in "convincing" Trump to move ahead with this war.  In my view, most of the time Trump is "convinced" to do anything, there is some type of transaction involved.  I would love to know the terms but we may never find out  - or it might take quite a  while.  However, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit greatly from regime change in  Iran and  from an even  closer relationship with the United States. As well - Saudi Arabia's apparently close but hidden relationship with Israel could come out of  the closet.

C. Iran

I am probably not qualified to write about this from an Iranian perspective but I think a few comments are worth making.

On the one  hand, Iran clearly read the tea leaves and saw that a massive attack was coming - given all of the hardware that the U.S.  moved into the region.  While the Americans were making some fairly unrealistic demands of the Iranians, the Iranians seemed to have responded with maximum hubris - and what can only be described as a nonchalant response  to the impending war.  A similar mistake to that made by Saddam Hussein years ago.  I am not sure that the Iranians could have come up with sufficient concessions to stop the war, especially if the US. goal was regime change - but they probably could have made a better effort.

My second comment is that I would question the effectiveness of attacking Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others in the region.  Although the Iranian thinking  on this might be that this well pressure the U.S. into stopping the war, I believe that it will likely have the opposite effect and push those countries to further support a complete dismantling of the Iranian government.

Ultimately, I appreciate that the current Iranian government is in survival mode and is hoping to ride this out in any way it can - and stand up to the U.S. / Israeli efforts to support regime change.  I do not know if that is going to be possible - but attacking civilian targets, bringing in other countries into the fighting and making other non-credible threats to U.S. interests - do not seem to be steps that will assist the Iranians.

D. The Rest of the World

The world has been relatively quiet so far in response  to this war.  Canada's Prime Minister issued a lukewarm statement supporting the U.S.  and also stated that Canada had no part in this and was not going to get involved.  Many  other countries - such as Turkey - have been quieter than one  might have expected. I imagine that this will all change as the war goes on.  But the only country in any position to cause some real problems for the U.S. at this point is probably China.  Hopefully they will not have any interest in becoming involved.

E. Conclusion about the War

There have been demonstrations and counterdemonstrations all  around the world.  Many expatriate Iranians have been demonstrating, often with Israelis in the crowd, in favour of the U.S. -Israeli actions and  hoping for a much  better future for Iran.  Others have demonstrated against the war - including, in many cases, those who were supporting Hamas against Israel. 

According to newest reports, Iran has asked to meet with Trump as soon as possible to discuss the war - and Trump has agreed (while telling them it took them way too long). 

At the same time, there is talk that the civilian anti-government demonstrations within Iran that took place in early January may re-start - this time supported to some degree by U.S. and Israeli actions including the possibility of military assistance.

Israeli news has just reported that Trump has had conversations with MBS of Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister of  Netanyahu and the leaders of  Bahrain - and that things might move quicker than expected towards a cease fire.

As discussed above, from Israel's perspective, the only real "win" in this war will be a regime change  - or a major directional change by whoever takes over the Iranian government.  For the U.S., Trump would probably like to see this end as quickly as possible and be able to claim victory.  Hard to predict how this will play out.

Other

I was supposed to be back in Israeli for Purim and this will be the first time in 16 years or so that I am not in Israel for Purim.  I usually read chapter 8 of Megillat Esther - and sometimes 9 and 10 as well.  But  Israeli air space is closed until Tuesday at earliest. For now, I am hoping that I will be back in time for  Pesach.

There are many other topics to write about - hockey, the upcoming academy awards, the travel situation for flights to and from Israel and other topics.  But I am going to leave these topics for now and hope for a speedy and successful conclusion to this war - peace for Israel and the whole middle east - and
with freedom for Iranians - meaning a government that they install and support - and hopefully one that will be committed to long term peaceful middle east - with all of its neighbours- including Israel.

And wishing everyone a happy and healthy Purim!