I have written a number of columns over the past few days. Well, I have to say that there are few things more interesting than a closely contested national election. If you are one of those people reading this column, there is a good chance that you agree.
So I thought I would put together a few interesting points about the results and the aftermath. This information is available on YNet, Haaretz and some other news sources - but I have selected a few points that I found notable.
Results By City
I have provided a link to the YNet map of results by Israeli city (and even neighbourhood). It is in Hebrew but if you have a map of Israel handy, it should be easy enough to decipher.
As with elections in many other democratic countries, voters in large cities tend to vote for more liberal parties. There are some exceptions, of course, (like if the city happens to be a religious capital) but, not surprisingly, this can be seen to some extent in the Israeli electorate. So in Tel-Aviv, the Zionist Camp picked up 34% of the vote, followed by 19% for Likud and 13% for Meretz. In Haifa, the Zionist Camp won 25% of the vote, followed by 20% for Likud and 11% for Yesh Atid. On the other hand, 24% of Jerusalem voters chose Likud while 21% voted for the Ultra-Religious Degel HaTorah party. Another 10% of Jerusalem voters picked Shas.
Outside of those three cities, Likud fared quite well in cities of the next tier in size. Likud wins included Rehovot (27%), Ashdod (27%), Ashkelon (40%) and Tiberias (45%).
Closer to home, 33% of Ra'anana voters cast their ballots for the Zionist Camp while Likud (21%) and Yesh Atid (14%) finished second and third respectively.
Then there is "home away from home"... in Kiryat Eqron, 45% of the population voted for Likud with another 14% voting for Kulanu. But just down the street from Kiryat Eqron, 32% of voters in the town of Mazkeret Batya chose the Zionist Camp.
As in any country, the results show that Israel is very divided geographically. It is beyond the scope of this short blog to discuss the various socioeconomic factors for each area, but there are obviously a wide range of significant differences between the various geographic locations and their populations.
How Many Israelis Does it Take to Win a Knesset Seat?
Official Israeli election results show that 72.3% of eligible voters voted. All "eligible voters" are automatically registered. So whereas in some countries, the percentage of voters is reported as the percentage of registered voters who voted, that is not an issue in Israel. There were 5,878,000 eligible voters in Israel. 4,253,000 of them cast ballots. 43,800 voters spoiled their ballots.
This means that each Knesset seat was worth 33,482 votes. However, with a 3.5% threshold, a party needed 136,808 votes to make it in to the Knesset.
In case you were wondering, the Green Leaf party picked up 38,264 votes. Under the old Israeli rules in which the threshold was 1%, Israel would have elected one Green Leaf party member - who could have sat in the Knesset and put forward bills (probably rolled up) sponsoring the legalization of cannabis. Unfortunately for those voters, it does not look like Israel is about to become the Netherlands anytime soon. That being said, I am quite sure that there are many places across the country where finding access to cannabis is not extremely difficult. Worst case, Israelis can take advantage of the El Al seat sale and fly to Amsterdam or they can go a bit further and visit Colorado or Washington State for some drug tourism...
Quickest Revoked Resignation
Meretz chair Zehava Galon resigned on Wednesday after it was reported that her party had only won 4 seats. After some absentee ballots were counted, Meretz increased its presence to 5 seats. Galon decided to retract her resignation and stay on with the party. She noted that many of the absentee ballots were cast by soldiers and she would not want to let Israeli soldiers down after receiving their support. Continuing to earn an MK salary may also be a factor but she didn't mention that.
Quickest Orwellian Retraction of a Campaign Statement
As the election campaigning was drawing to a conclusion and Netanyahu was worried about the possibility of losing, he decided to try and shore up his right wing base by announcing the he was retracting his support for a two-state solution with the Palestinians. I'm reasonably sure that this was what he said...and it was picked up everywhere as a "game changer." Maybe we were all hallucinating? (Thinking about the Green Leaf party winning a seat...)
After the election, U.S. President Obama promptly suggested that if Israel would not support a two state solution - the U.S. might end its policy of blocking U.N. resolutions that impose a two state solution.
Surprise, surprise - Prime Minister Netanyahu promptly announced on NBC that he was in favour of a "peaceful, two state solution" and he had not really said what was attributed to him (or something like that) - or had not really meant what he had said... Okay well, we know now that Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot be confused with Horton ("I said what I meant and I meant what I said...a politician is faithful...100%...) (See Dr. Seuss if you missed the reference...). Naftali Bennett on the other hand, insisted that he would not negotiate to give up even one centimetre of land.
Now this, of course, all raises several interesting questions.
For one thing, given that Netanyahu used this statement to shore up his base and siphon votes from the more right wing Bayit Hayehudi party, how is it that his voters will accept this prompt about face? More importantly, which members of his right wing coalition will agree to negotiations for a two state solution after he campaigned by swearing it would not happen under his watch? Will Bennett also retroactively change his words? That seems unlikely.
While this Netanyahu about-face is certainly a positive development (albeit a small one) for those in the centre or on the left hoping that somehow there will be a negotiated solution with the Palestinians - it is unclear how Prime Minister Netanyahu could possibly negotiate one unless he assembles a national unity government with the Zionist Camp or includes some centrist or left-leaning parties in his coalition. I don't see how this can happen given the statements he made while campaigning. He would face a mutiny in his party.
It is much more likely that there will be another election before Netanyahu takes any real steps towards a peace deal with the Palestinians.
So that is my wrap up for now. I'll take a break for while on election postings and write again about this issue once some type of coalition starts to take shape.
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Big Win for Netanyahu: Some Post Election Thoughts
"Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his Likud party to a massive and surprising victory on Tuesday. While pre-election polls had put the Likud in second place with a forecast of 20-21 seats, the party emerged with 30 seats, the largest number of any party and some 25% of Knesset seats. Netanyahu will still need to add 31 more Knesset members to get to the magic number of 61to form a government. However, that looks like it will be relatively easy for him this time around as compared to what he faced just after the 2013 elections. He will have the support of Habayit Hayehudi ("Jewish Home" - Naftali Bennett's party) which was reduced to 8 seats from 13. He will also have the support of Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home" - Avigdor Lieberman's party) which won 6 seats. That brings him to 44. He will then turn to the ultra-religious and add in Shas (8) and Degel HaTorah (6). With 58 Knesset members and needing only 3 more, he will most likely count on the Kulanu party, led by Moshe Kahlon with its 10 seats to put Likud at 68. There is a possibility that Yesh Atid (11 seats) will also consider joining but that seems less likely, especially if the government includes Shas and Degel HaTorah. Even without one of these two parties, the government may be too far to the right for the tastes of the 11 Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) members.
The Zionist coalition finished with 24 seats, 6 behind Likud. The United Arab List finished with 14 to become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset. Meretz hung on with 4 and Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad, which had left Shas did not make it into the Knesset.
This is all not very good news for Israelis on the left or even those in the centre. Effectively, Netanyahu will have accomplished his goal. He will have exchanged the "left" constituents of his previous government - Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid - for two ultra-religious parties (Shas and Degel HaTorah) and Moshe Kahlon's party. Kahlon was a former Likud MK himself. Not that Livni or Lapid were really "leftists" but in the Netanyahu government, they certainly were.
As the election campaign was drawing to a close, Netanyahu sought to shore up his right wing support by renouncing his past statements of support for a Palestinian state. Based on the anticipated constituent members of the government that will most likely be formed, it is hard to see how any negotiations will take place with the Palestinians anytime soon.
If the ultra-religious parties are back in the government, as expected, we can anticipate a rollback of some of the changes that Lapid sought to bring in. A restoration of funding for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious interests. A pullback on the effort to put the ultra-religious in the army. Increased power over religious affairs in the state handed back to the ultra-orthodox.
It seems to me that we can also anticipate a further deterioration in current U.S.-Israeli relations and EU-Israeli relations. I'm reluctant to go on with predictions of other developments that we are likely to anticipate but they are daunting.
In looking at these results, we can size up the Israeli electorate as follows. 57 out of the 120 Knesset seats are right wing or religious parties. 21 more are centrists or right-centrists. 14 seats are in the Arab bloc. That leaves 28 seats for the left. The results clearly show that the Israeli electorate leans, at this point in time, heavily to the right.
There had been a sense of optimism in central Israel that the left and the centre would fare better. Even the exit polls that were released at 10 p.m. in Israel suggested that the Likud would be tied with the Zionist Union at 28 for the lead. But when the votes were actually counted and the results announced, Israelis had shown a clear preference to continue on with Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") as the Prime Minister.
Winners and Losers
Prime Minister Netanyahu was the big winner of the evening with 30 seats, rallying from a polling deficit, a barrage of attacks from the press and a big push by the left to try and remove him from office. He scored a convincing victory. If he serves out a full term, he will become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.
Looking down the list, it is also reasonable to put Moshe Kahlon in the winners group, with his 11 seats. His party will most likely join the government and will have significant power. Other winners include Shas, which is also likely to join the government. The Joint Arab List won a convincing 14 seats. However, they will sit in opposition and have little impact on the government. Avigdor Lieberman held on to 6 seats and will likely hold a cabinet post. So, on balance, he can also be put in the winners category.
Almost all of the other parties can be put into the "losers" camp. For Yesh Atid under Lapid, this election meant a reduction in seats from 19 to 11. Lapid's party is likely to be sitting in the opposition this time around after holding a number of important cabinet posts in the most recent government. It is hard to paint this as any kind of victory for Lapid.
The Zionist Camp won 24 seats. While that is a respectable number, the party's goal was to form the government. That will not happen. This can only be described as a defeat for that party as well, despite the sugar coating by some of its leaders.
Meretz held on to its status with 4 seats but its leader promptly resigned, early this morning, taking the blame for the party's decline in numbers. Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad failed to make the cut off and will not sit in the Knesset. The election can even be viewed as a defeat for Bennett's (Habayit Hayehudi) party which only won 8 seats. However, Bennett will play a key role in the new government so it is more of a mixed result for his party.
The 2013 election brought a sense of optimism in some Israeli circles as a government was formed that included Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid and left out the ultra religious parties. That government made some moves on economic and social issues but approached Palestinian issues through the Naftali Bennett lens. Now, it is anticipated that the party's "left" will be Moshe Kahlon's party and the party will continue to approach Palestinian issues through a Naftali Bennett lens. As well, the government will approach many other issues through an Ultra-Orthodox lens.
In the losers category, I suppose I will also have to include my personal election predictions. I accurately predicted that Yishai would be out and that Meretz would make it in (barely). My predictions for Yisrael Beitenu, the Arab list, Shas and Degel HaTorah, were all within one. I was wildly off with the Likud predicting 21- which is 9 less than the 30 that they won. I overestimated the Zionist Camp (27-24), Yesh Atid (16-11) and Bayit Yehudi (13-8). Conversely, I underestimated Kahlon (7-10). On the whole, it looks like a chunk of centrist votes went to Kahlon instead of Lapid - and a chunk of right wing votes went to Likud instead of Bayit Yehudi.
Conclusion
What can be concluded? The left and the centre are far from close to forming a government in Israel at the present time. The electorate prefers a right wing government and has voted heavily in favour of putting one in place.
Israel is surrounded by hostile, unstable regimes. The threat of war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border looms large as does the possibility that the Syrian civil war will spill into a conflict that engages Israel. Egypt is a powder keg and Israel is constantly on high alert at its southern border. All three of these realities would be unlikely to change irrespective of the type of leadership that Israel had in place.
With respect to the Palestinians, many Israelis fear that the danger of a Hamas takeover in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would make a two state solution suicidal for Israel at the present time. Together with all of this, pre-election opinion polls showed that Netanyahu was perceived as the best leader for Israel. Zionist Camp leader Herzog did not project strength or confidence. On the other hand, Netanyahu was perceived as a strong, forceful, qualified political and military leader. For many Israelis, that is the type of leader Israel needs to face the unique range of existential threats that it must constantly address.
One can only up that the day will come when Israelis feel less threatened existentially and confident enough to try a different approach. These elections clearly demonstrate that this is not yet the case.
I guess for now we will have to go with this line from our daily prayers:
עושה שלום במרומיו, הוא יעשה שלום עלינו ועל כל ישראל, ואמרו אמן
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his Likud party to a massive and surprising victory on Tuesday. While pre-election polls had put the Likud in second place with a forecast of 20-21 seats, the party emerged with 30 seats, the largest number of any party and some 25% of Knesset seats. Netanyahu will still need to add 31 more Knesset members to get to the magic number of 61to form a government. However, that looks like it will be relatively easy for him this time around as compared to what he faced just after the 2013 elections. He will have the support of Habayit Hayehudi ("Jewish Home" - Naftali Bennett's party) which was reduced to 8 seats from 13. He will also have the support of Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home" - Avigdor Lieberman's party) which won 6 seats. That brings him to 44. He will then turn to the ultra-religious and add in Shas (8) and Degel HaTorah (6). With 58 Knesset members and needing only 3 more, he will most likely count on the Kulanu party, led by Moshe Kahlon with its 10 seats to put Likud at 68. There is a possibility that Yesh Atid (11 seats) will also consider joining but that seems less likely, especially if the government includes Shas and Degel HaTorah. Even without one of these two parties, the government may be too far to the right for the tastes of the 11 Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) members.
The Zionist coalition finished with 24 seats, 6 behind Likud. The United Arab List finished with 14 to become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset. Meretz hung on with 4 and Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad, which had left Shas did not make it into the Knesset.
This is all not very good news for Israelis on the left or even those in the centre. Effectively, Netanyahu will have accomplished his goal. He will have exchanged the "left" constituents of his previous government - Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid - for two ultra-religious parties (Shas and Degel HaTorah) and Moshe Kahlon's party. Kahlon was a former Likud MK himself. Not that Livni or Lapid were really "leftists" but in the Netanyahu government, they certainly were.
As the election campaign was drawing to a close, Netanyahu sought to shore up his right wing support by renouncing his past statements of support for a Palestinian state. Based on the anticipated constituent members of the government that will most likely be formed, it is hard to see how any negotiations will take place with the Palestinians anytime soon.
If the ultra-religious parties are back in the government, as expected, we can anticipate a rollback of some of the changes that Lapid sought to bring in. A restoration of funding for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious interests. A pullback on the effort to put the ultra-religious in the army. Increased power over religious affairs in the state handed back to the ultra-orthodox.
It seems to me that we can also anticipate a further deterioration in current U.S.-Israeli relations and EU-Israeli relations. I'm reluctant to go on with predictions of other developments that we are likely to anticipate but they are daunting.
In looking at these results, we can size up the Israeli electorate as follows. 57 out of the 120 Knesset seats are right wing or religious parties. 21 more are centrists or right-centrists. 14 seats are in the Arab bloc. That leaves 28 seats for the left. The results clearly show that the Israeli electorate leans, at this point in time, heavily to the right.
There had been a sense of optimism in central Israel that the left and the centre would fare better. Even the exit polls that were released at 10 p.m. in Israel suggested that the Likud would be tied with the Zionist Union at 28 for the lead. But when the votes were actually counted and the results announced, Israelis had shown a clear preference to continue on with Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") as the Prime Minister.
Winners and Losers
Prime Minister Netanyahu was the big winner of the evening with 30 seats, rallying from a polling deficit, a barrage of attacks from the press and a big push by the left to try and remove him from office. He scored a convincing victory. If he serves out a full term, he will become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.
Looking down the list, it is also reasonable to put Moshe Kahlon in the winners group, with his 11 seats. His party will most likely join the government and will have significant power. Other winners include Shas, which is also likely to join the government. The Joint Arab List won a convincing 14 seats. However, they will sit in opposition and have little impact on the government. Avigdor Lieberman held on to 6 seats and will likely hold a cabinet post. So, on balance, he can also be put in the winners category.
Almost all of the other parties can be put into the "losers" camp. For Yesh Atid under Lapid, this election meant a reduction in seats from 19 to 11. Lapid's party is likely to be sitting in the opposition this time around after holding a number of important cabinet posts in the most recent government. It is hard to paint this as any kind of victory for Lapid.
The Zionist Camp won 24 seats. While that is a respectable number, the party's goal was to form the government. That will not happen. This can only be described as a defeat for that party as well, despite the sugar coating by some of its leaders.
Meretz held on to its status with 4 seats but its leader promptly resigned, early this morning, taking the blame for the party's decline in numbers. Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad failed to make the cut off and will not sit in the Knesset. The election can even be viewed as a defeat for Bennett's (Habayit Hayehudi) party which only won 8 seats. However, Bennett will play a key role in the new government so it is more of a mixed result for his party.
The 2013 election brought a sense of optimism in some Israeli circles as a government was formed that included Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid and left out the ultra religious parties. That government made some moves on economic and social issues but approached Palestinian issues through the Naftali Bennett lens. Now, it is anticipated that the party's "left" will be Moshe Kahlon's party and the party will continue to approach Palestinian issues through a Naftali Bennett lens. As well, the government will approach many other issues through an Ultra-Orthodox lens.
In the losers category, I suppose I will also have to include my personal election predictions. I accurately predicted that Yishai would be out and that Meretz would make it in (barely). My predictions for Yisrael Beitenu, the Arab list, Shas and Degel HaTorah, were all within one. I was wildly off with the Likud predicting 21- which is 9 less than the 30 that they won. I overestimated the Zionist Camp (27-24), Yesh Atid (16-11) and Bayit Yehudi (13-8). Conversely, I underestimated Kahlon (7-10). On the whole, it looks like a chunk of centrist votes went to Kahlon instead of Lapid - and a chunk of right wing votes went to Likud instead of Bayit Yehudi.
Conclusion
What can be concluded? The left and the centre are far from close to forming a government in Israel at the present time. The electorate prefers a right wing government and has voted heavily in favour of putting one in place.
Israel is surrounded by hostile, unstable regimes. The threat of war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border looms large as does the possibility that the Syrian civil war will spill into a conflict that engages Israel. Egypt is a powder keg and Israel is constantly on high alert at its southern border. All three of these realities would be unlikely to change irrespective of the type of leadership that Israel had in place.
With respect to the Palestinians, many Israelis fear that the danger of a Hamas takeover in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would make a two state solution suicidal for Israel at the present time. Together with all of this, pre-election opinion polls showed that Netanyahu was perceived as the best leader for Israel. Zionist Camp leader Herzog did not project strength or confidence. On the other hand, Netanyahu was perceived as a strong, forceful, qualified political and military leader. For many Israelis, that is the type of leader Israel needs to face the unique range of existential threats that it must constantly address.
One can only up that the day will come when Israelis feel less threatened existentially and confident enough to try a different approach. These elections clearly demonstrate that this is not yet the case.
I guess for now we will have to go with this line from our daily prayers:
עושה שלום במרומיו, הוא יעשה שלום עלינו ועל כל ישראל, ואמרו אמן
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Last Israel Pre-Election Blog 2015 and Predictions
Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni |
Netanyahu and Bennett |
Under Israeli law, the last pre-election polls could only be published Friday March 13, 2015. But over the past few days, there has been a flurry of activity from all sides, jockeying for last minute position. Here are a few last-minute highlights of some of the really interesting things that are going on (in my view anyways).
1. Netanyahu is in Desperation Mode
Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops in a bid to retain his position. He attended a large rally on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv with Bayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett. He has publicly appealed to his constituency by pledging that Bennett will be a key part of his government. He has attacked Herzog and Livni as "weak" and claimed that they will divide Jerusalem and create "Hamastan" in Jerusalem. In short, he has made every effort to appeal to his right wing base, seemingly ceding much of the centrist vote on issues involving the Palestinians. He has renounced any previous speeches in which he indicated that he would be willing to agree to a Palestinian State and he has wooed the right wing and the Israeli religious voters feverishly. At the same time, he has urged Moshe Kahlon (leader of the Kulanu party) to support him and he has pledged to provide economic assistance to the middle class despite the perception that he has a failed record in this regard. While Netanyahu's calculation is that the Likud voters will be frightened into bolstering his party at the last minute, there is some danger that this will backfire. There is a palpable sense of desperation. The momentum has been moving in the other direction and it is certainly unclear that these desperate speeches and statements will stem the tide.
2. The Zionist Camp is Feeling Confident
Indications are that the Zionist Camp will win a plurality of seats. However, it still may not be enough to enable the party to build a viable coalition and form a government. Nevertheless, the party is also making several last minute appeals, changes and pleas in an effort to shore up its support. Leader Isaac Herzog visited the Kotel and pledged his support for Jerusalem. He has attacked Lapid's Yesh Atid Party and urged centrist voters to support his party. Earlier today, he and co-leader Tsipi Livni announced that they would not go through with their plans to have a rotating Prime Minister's office and that Herzog would be the sole Prime Minister if the party wins. This was seemingly intended to enable the party more flexibility in coalition negotiations - perhaps even opening the door to a rotation with Likud (which may or may not involve Netanyahu).
3. Meretz is also Desperate
As I have written previously, the Meretz party, the party of left wing social justice, is flirting with elimination from the Knesset. Under new Israeli electoral law, a party must win 4 seats to be able to sit in the Knesset. That total has been increased to minimize the number of parties and limit the ability of extremist parties to win Knesset seats. Meretz is polling at 4 or 5 seats. Meretz has stepped up its campaigning with ads everywhere. It is appealing to voters by claiming that the Meretz party is needed for there to be any chance for Herzog to form a government. In fact, it has used a stylized "Merzog" graphic to bolster the connection, mixing its party name with Herzog. But many Meretz voters are moving to the Zionist Camp, hoping that this will finally be an opportunity for the left/centre to form a government. It could be a very close call for Meretz.
4. Shas and Yachad
As I discussed previously, the ultra-religious Shas party splintered over the course of this most recent Knesset sitting. Eli Yishai left the party and formed the Yachad party which is now polling at 4 or 5 seats. Shas is calling on its voters to "come home" to the legacy of the late Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, its former spiritual leader. Yishai is flailing around in an effort to reunite with Shas or find some other way to make it into the Knesset. It would be a huge boost for the Israeli centre if Yishai were to fall short since his 4 seats would be redistributed among the other parties, proportionately.
5. Centrist Struggle: Lapid or Kahlon?
In the last Knesset, Yair Lapid's party Yesh Atid had 19 seats. The party is now polling at 12. A new party, Kulanu, led by former Likud member Moshe Kahlon is polling at 8. A simplistic look at these numbers would suggest that these parties are fighting over the same group of voters - approximately 15-18% of the Israeli public who view themselves as true centrists. Lapid has edged slightly to the left, indicating that it is now highly unlikely that he would join a Netanyahu-led government (again). Kahlon has been wooed by Likud but has refused to commit to supporting Netanyahu. These two parties could be the real power brokers and could also wind up with surprising numbers. It is likely that the two parties combined will wind up in the range of 18-25 seats, which is certainly a force to be reckoned with.
Predictions
It is extremely difficult to predict Israeli election results. Many Israelis continue to declare themselves to be "undecided" to pollsters - whether or not that is really true. Others are still deciding between one or two or even three parties. Some may not decide until they are in the polling booth. But what is a political column like this worth without making an effort? So here goes, based on recent polls, trends, discussions with others, gut instincts and perhaps, a complete lack of qualifications as an election predictor - here is what I am going with:
Zionist Camp: 27
Likud: 21
Yesh Atid: 16
United Arab Parties: 13
Bayit Yehudi 13
Shas 8
Kahlon 7
Degel HaTorah 6
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 4
Yachad OUT
If this were to occur, Herzog would have 30 days to try and form a government. He would be able to count on the support of Yesh Atid, Meretz and maybe Kahlon. That could get the party to 54. They would still need seats from the religious parties and/or Lieberman to be able to form a government. Alternatively, they would try to form a unity government agreement with Likud. I am having a hard time, based on these numbers, seeing how the Zionist Camp could actually form a government. I am almost forced to predict that we will see another election within a two year period.
On the other hand, if Netanyahu continued to fight over the initial 30 day period and Herzog could not form a government, Netanyahu would get a chance to try. He could count on Bayit Yehudi, Shas and Degel HaTorah. That would get him to 48 with these numbers. Add 5 for Lieberman. That is 53. He would still need Kahlon and Yesh Atid or at least Yesh Atid. At this point, it is highly unlikely that Yesh Atid will bolster a right-wing religious government, since that would involve unraveling all of the changes that Lapid has pushed for.
This all looks like quite a recipe for a political logjam.
Netanyahu is not about to go quietly. However, looking at all of these results and possibilities, the most likely of the unlikely scenarios is starting to look like a joint Zionist Camp-Likud government, supported by Lapid, Kahlon and Meretz. It would be quite a shock but there are Israeli precedents.
The alternative would be a Herzog-led government which includes two of the three - Shas, Degel HaTorah, and Lieberman - as well as Kahlon and Lapid. I'm not seeing it....
So that is the best I can do. Stay tuned. We should have a good sense by Wednesday morning as to how these numbers stack up with the official results.
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
5 Days Left Until Israeli Elections
There is quite a bit of excitement in Israel as the March 17, 2015 election date approaches. Israelis have very passionate views about political issues, which of course, can have existential consequences. Politics are very dynamic. The proportional representation system means that many different parties are represented in the Knesset, with widely disparate views. And as the final decision time approaches, many Israelis have still not made up their minds, leading to widely fluctuating poll results.
In my view, here are some key stories to watch:
1. Zionist Camp or Likud:
Five different polls were released in Israel today. All five of them had the Zionist Camp (Labour party and Tsipi Livni's party, running together) ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. The average was a 24-21 margin. It is important to remember that these polls still show anywhere from 15 to 25% of Israelis as "undecided." So a lot can still change between now and Tuesday. But there is a growing sense of momentum in favour of the Zionist Camp and it is starting to seem more and more likely that Labour leader Isaac "Boujee" Herzog will have the first opportunity to try and form a government. Boujee will still need to cobble together a total of at least 61 seats and that will be no easy task even if his party wins a plurality of seats.
2. Decline of Meretz:
The left wing Meretz party is in a state of panic. New Israeli changes to the electoral system put the cut off at 3.5% of votes in order to set in the Knesset. This means that Meretz will need to win at least 4 seats to stay on as a party. It appears that many Meretz voters have shifted over to the Zionist Camp. This has caused Meretz to run an all out campaign emphasizing its "social justice" credentials. It looks like it is going to be very close as to whether there will be a Meretz representation in the next Knesset. On balance, I think they will squeak in. But it could be a really close call.
3. Kulanu and Yesh Atid:
Moshe Kahlon's new party ("Kulanu") seems to be polling at about 9 seats consistently. Lapid's party is at approximately 12. That is 21 centrist seats for the new Knesset. My sense is that Lapid has some momentum and could wind up closer to 15 or 16. I think some of these seats will come at Kahlon's expense. Kahlon is probably slightly more likely to join a Likud-led coaltion. Lapid has been very vigorous in his calls for Netanyahu's defeat. But it is likely that either of these parties would join a Likud-led coalition with the right offers. At the same time, Lapid would gladly join a Zionist Camp led coalition and it is probable that Kahlon would do the same thing.
The real issue is how either side will form a government. Looking at the current numbers, it is hard to see how the Zionist Camp could actually put together a viable government. One option would be a "national unity government" where the party cuts a deal with Likud as well as some other centrist parties. If it cannot get together with Likud, the Zionist Camp will have a very difficult time getting past the magic number of 61 - even with Lapid, Kahlon, and some others.
On the other hand, Likud would also have a difficult time with the current numbers. Even with Bennett's party and the religious parties, it is hard to see how they would get to 61 without the Zionist Camp. If they were to get to 61, it would be a narrow, right wing coalition including all four of the religious parties (Bennett, Shas, Degel Hatorah and Yishai's party).
If there are some new developments, I will try to put together one more pre-election blog note. But this might be it until after the results are released on Tuesday evening.
In my view, here are some key stories to watch:
1. Zionist Camp or Likud:
Five different polls were released in Israel today. All five of them had the Zionist Camp (Labour party and Tsipi Livni's party, running together) ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. The average was a 24-21 margin. It is important to remember that these polls still show anywhere from 15 to 25% of Israelis as "undecided." So a lot can still change between now and Tuesday. But there is a growing sense of momentum in favour of the Zionist Camp and it is starting to seem more and more likely that Labour leader Isaac "Boujee" Herzog will have the first opportunity to try and form a government. Boujee will still need to cobble together a total of at least 61 seats and that will be no easy task even if his party wins a plurality of seats.
2. Decline of Meretz:
The left wing Meretz party is in a state of panic. New Israeli changes to the electoral system put the cut off at 3.5% of votes in order to set in the Knesset. This means that Meretz will need to win at least 4 seats to stay on as a party. It appears that many Meretz voters have shifted over to the Zionist Camp. This has caused Meretz to run an all out campaign emphasizing its "social justice" credentials. It looks like it is going to be very close as to whether there will be a Meretz representation in the next Knesset. On balance, I think they will squeak in. But it could be a really close call.
3. Kulanu and Yesh Atid:
Moshe Kahlon's new party ("Kulanu") seems to be polling at about 9 seats consistently. Lapid's party is at approximately 12. That is 21 centrist seats for the new Knesset. My sense is that Lapid has some momentum and could wind up closer to 15 or 16. I think some of these seats will come at Kahlon's expense. Kahlon is probably slightly more likely to join a Likud-led coaltion. Lapid has been very vigorous in his calls for Netanyahu's defeat. But it is likely that either of these parties would join a Likud-led coalition with the right offers. At the same time, Lapid would gladly join a Zionist Camp led coalition and it is probable that Kahlon would do the same thing.
The real issue is how either side will form a government. Looking at the current numbers, it is hard to see how the Zionist Camp could actually put together a viable government. One option would be a "national unity government" where the party cuts a deal with Likud as well as some other centrist parties. If it cannot get together with Likud, the Zionist Camp will have a very difficult time getting past the magic number of 61 - even with Lapid, Kahlon, and some others.
On the other hand, Likud would also have a difficult time with the current numbers. Even with Bennett's party and the religious parties, it is hard to see how they would get to 61 without the Zionist Camp. If they were to get to 61, it would be a narrow, right wing coalition including all four of the religious parties (Bennett, Shas, Degel Hatorah and Yishai's party).
If there are some new developments, I will try to put together one more pre-election blog note. But this might be it until after the results are released on Tuesday evening.
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Post Purim 2015: On to the Israeli Elections 2015
It was a busy week in Israel - for me, for our family and for the country. Purim was on Wednesday night and Thursday. That always brings with it lots of festivities in Israel - parties, parades, carnivals, mishloach manot (gift baskets) and shul. Just preparing for Wednesday night was busy for our family, as we (three of us) read 4 of the 10 chapters of the Megillah at our shul. Add to that - a wonderful fundraising evening of Jazz on Tuesday night that we were invited to attend (to raise money to build a well in Sudan) and a bar mitzvah celebration on Thursday night of some close friends - and things were quite busy and tiring.
Today marked the start of another week here in Israel. Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two. It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.
So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.
Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013. If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview. Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.
However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates. I thought I would highlight a few:
1. The Zionist Union
The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union." This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset. As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.
According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members. It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election. But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.
2. Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu
In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu. The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly. This time around, they are running separately. However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats. They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8. While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again. The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.
3. Yesh Atid/ Kulanu
The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education. At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats. Where are these votes going? The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues. There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down. The polling results are likely to fluctuate. Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6. Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union. They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.
4. Bayit Hayehudi
This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats. The party held 12 after the last elections. My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes. On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace." Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition. Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war. Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely.
5. Arab Parties
In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties. They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats. It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal. There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point. In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.
6. Shas/ Yachad
Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party. In 2013, it won 11 seats. It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc. It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters. While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured. A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together"). Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats. They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition. They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government. They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.
Summary
In reviewing the Likud math (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party). That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes. So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government. Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union. With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government. He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.
On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with). Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57. Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government. If Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60. Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis. It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.
It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate). Neither seem incredibly likely at this point. While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi. There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.
All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur. Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view. The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.
But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens. Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.
Today marked the start of another week here in Israel. Since Sunday is a normal work day, that meant back to the army for the oldest, back to school for our younger two. It also meant that there is just over a week until Israel's next national election.
So after watching "Matzav Ha-Umah" - the "State of the Nation" - Israel's equivalent of Saturday Night Live - which featured Naftali Bennett this episode - I thought I would try to put together a few comments about the upcoming elections in Israel.
Of course it seems that these elections have arrived so soon after the previous national elections which were held in 2013. If you would like a few refreshers, here is a link to my 2013 Israel Elections Preview. Here is my link to a summary of the results of the last election.
However, there have also been a few changes since 2013 in the various parties and the coalitions and possible coalitions between the various candidates. I thought I would highlight a few:
1. The Zionist Union
The Labour party and "Hatnuah," a party led by Tsipi Livni, joined forces in December 2014 to campaign together as the "Zionist Union." This centre-left coalition is now the main opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. Some polls have put the two parties neck and neck at anywhere between 23 and 26 seats each out of the 120 seats in Israel's Knesset. As of today, it seems too close to call which party will wind up with a plurality of seats.
According to Israeli political convention, the party that wins the plurality of seats is supposed to be asked by the President of the country to form a coalition government by putting together a bloc of at least 61 Knesset members. It seems unclear to me at this point how the Zionist Union could cobble together enough support to get past 61, even if the party wins more seats than Likud in the election. But if they do come out ahead, they would most likely earn the right to try.
2. Likud/ Yisrael Beitenu
In the 2013 election, Likud campaigned jointly with Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beitenu. The two parties obtained 31 seats, jointly. This time around, they are running separately. However, most polls I have seen have put Likud at between 23 and 26 seats. They have also put Lieberman at anywhere from 5 to 8. While Lieberman could surprise people and join a government led by the Zionist Union, it is probably more likely that he would put aside any personal differences he might have with Likud and join a Likud coalition once again. The overall impact is that the combination of Likud and Yisrael Beitenu is still likely to be in the range of 28-32 seats.
3. Yesh Atid/ Kulanu
The surprise winner of the 2013 election was certainly the Yesh Atid party which won 19 seats and claimed some key cabinet posts including ministries of finance and education. At this point, polls have put Lapid's party at anywhere from 11 to 14 seats. Where are these votes going? The most logical answer is that they going to another centrist party - the new "Kulanu" party, led by Moshe Kahlon, which has been focusing on economic and cost of living issues. There is probably still time for both parties to go up or down. The polling results are likely to fluctuate. Nevertheless, it seems likely that Lapid will lose a number of seats and that Kahlon will win at least 5 or 6. Either Lapid or Kahlon - or both them - could wind up in a government led by Likud or a government led by the Zionist Union. They may well be the power brokers in the next election, which could be a very good thing for the Israeli centre.
4. Bayit Hayehudi
This right wing national religious party, led by start up mogul Naftali Bennett is currently polling at approximately 11-12 seats. The party held 12 after the last elections. My sense is that there is some momentum for the party and that it could wind up with a few additional seats - perhaps 15 or 16 - which would be seats that would come at the expense of Likud or Yisrael Beitenu votes. On TV earlier this evening, Bennett reiterated that his party would not give up "one centimetre" of land in exchange for a peace deal and that its proposal to the Palestinians would be "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace." Bennett could not join a government with the Zionist Union so he would either bolster a Likud coalition or he would sit in opposition. Sounds to me like a recipe for an early war but maybe he figures that deterrence prevents war. Doesn't seem to me that Israel's history, to this point, supports that viewpoint completely.
5. Arab Parties
In previous Knesset elections, there were three Arab parties. They are now all running together as a "United Arab List" which could claim 12 or 13 seats. It may well be that this party, ironically, would bolster a Zionist Union government as part of some type of express, official deal, or as part of some sort of unofficial deal. There may even be a chance that the joint party would come to terms with the Zionist Union to become part of the government though that seems unlikely at this point. In any case, this voting bloc is likely to hold a reasonable amount of power and may be able to generate some positive changes for its supporters.
6. Shas/ Yachad
Shas is the ultra-religious eastern (Mizrachi) religious party. In 2013, it won 11 seats. It has historically been part of Israeli governments and has usually been able to wrangle significant concessions for its voting bloc. It did not join the government for this past session, for which it blames Yesh Atid, the party viewed as public enemy #1 by Shas and its supporters. While in the political wilderness, Shas fractured. A splinter party, led by Eli Yishai was formed called, ironically enough, Yachad ("together"). Between Shas and Yachad, the two parties are polling at a total of 11 to 13 seats. They would be strong candidates to join a Likud led coalition. They would try to insist that Lapid remain outside of the government. They could probably live with Kahlon's party, Kulanu.
Summary
In reviewing the Likud math (the math that Netanyahu would hope for - or that he could live with) - that would mean - (all estimates), 25 likud, 7 Yisrael Beitenu, 12 Bayit Hayehudi, 12 Shas, 4 Yachad, 6 UTJ (Ultra-religious Ashkenazi party). That all adds up to 66 before Kahlon's votes. So Netanyahu would still have room to court offers from Yisrael Beitenu, Yachad and/or UTJ to form the government. Only Lieberman, Shas and Yachad would be real threats to leave and join the Zionist Union. With this math at a minimum, Netanyahu would be in the driver's seat and would have the upper hand in forming a government. He could well see higher numbers for his party or for some of the other parties listed above.
On the other hand, with enough of a monetary offer, both Shas and Yachad could also join a Zionist Union government. Let's look at that math (the math that Herzog would hope for - or could live with). Zionist Union (27), Meretz (6), Shas/Yachad (16), Kahlon (8)....I'm only getting to 57. Add in UTJ (6) and you have a razor thin government. If Lapid won 13 seats and replaced Shas/Yachad - I'm not sure that would get the coalition to 60. Even if this type of government was formed - which combined the Zionist Union with three different ultra-religious parties, it is likely this would be a very unpalatable government for quite a large number of Israelis. It could also add in 12-15 Arab seats but that might make it even more unpopular among the Israeli centre.
It seems to me that in order to form a government, the Zionist Union will either need a joint "national unity" government with Likud - or it will require some very surprising results (i.e. a big swing to the left by the Israeli electorate). Neither seem incredibly likely at this point. While there is certainly a move in some circles to create a change of leadership and elect a new Prime Minister in Israel, there is also significant support for some right wing parties including Habayit Hayehudi. There is also some level of lack of confidence in Isaac Herzog ("Boujee") who has been painted in the media as weak and indecisive.
All in all, it is difficult to predict what might occur. Although there is a possibility of some type of national unity government led by Likud and the Zionist Union, that seems to be the only real possibility of governmental improvement in Israel in my view. The alternatives of a right wing coalition (i.e. replacing yesh Atid with the ultra-religious parties) or an unholy alliance between the left and the ultra-religious parties (possibly with support from the Arab parties) both look like grim options to me.
But 8 days can be a long time in Israeli political life so we will stay tuned and wait to see what happens. Hopefully, a high percentage of Israelis will make it to the polls and will participate in this important election.
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