Israeli Military Response in Yemen, Olympics and Other Updates July 2024

It is not often that I write blogs so closely together but sometimes there are so many things going on that I feel the urge to put together a few in a row in rapid succession.  This often happens just before or during Israeli elections or when there are some very unusual, challenging or different events taking place.  So whether or not you managed to read my blog from Friday July 19, 2024, I have put this one together to cover 6 or 7 items that I wanted to write about.  In a way, this might be viewed as an extension of the last blog but, quite simply, there are so many things going on here that I felt I just had to put this one together.  Of course it helps that today is Sunday - and I do not really have to work too hard on my normal business today (which is looking quite hectic for the coming week, thankfully).  So here goes - I have divided it into a bunch of headings and I hope you will find it interesting.

1. The Israeli Counter-Attack on Yemen

As you probably read, Israel launched a counter attack against the Houthis in Yemen yesterday.  Israel attacked the port town of Hodeidah, Yemen, which is apparently used as one of the main supply areas for the delivery of weapons from Iran to the Houthi forces.  Interestingly, Hodeidah had a large Jewish population at one time, with members of the Jewish community very active in trade, commerce, crafts and other artisanal efforts.  As with most of the rest of the Yemenite Jewish community, the Jews of Hodeidah left Yemen as part of Operation Magic Carpet in 1948-49 and immigrated to Israel.  

The targets hit by Israeli forces included oil fields and power stations.  Israel used fighter jets that flew on a 1700 km mission (each way) to carry out the counter attacks.  The attacks came after Yemen claimed responsibility for its drone attack against Tel-Aviv on Thursday night that killed one Israeli and injured 8 others.  Since October 7, 2024, the Houthis of Yemen have also been launching numerous missile attacks against Eilat and other parts of Israel, attacking Israeli ships and other ships bound for Israel - and taking other hostile actions against Israel.  The Houthis are armed, trained and supported by Iran and have been used as one of the proxies of Iran since October 7, 2023 to attack Israel without the attacks coming directly from Iran other than on one occasion.  The Houthis have reported that 3 people were killed and many others injured in these Israeli counterattacks.

The Houthis, the Iranians and various other groups are now vowing further attacks against Israel in response to this counterattack - so it seems reasonably likely that things will continue to escalate between Israel and Yemen and sooner or later between Israel and Iran - which is the main source and force behind just about all of the fronts that Israel is currently facing in the current war.

I just saw an interview with a Tel Aviv resident who was asleep on his balcony one building over from the drone attack in Tel-Aviv.  Debris from the drone crashed  through his makeshift roof and destroyed one of the two sofas he had on the balcony.  He was sleeping on a sofa that was connected to the other sofa that was destroyed.  He was in remarkably good spirits for someone who had been just a few feet away from likely death.  When asked about this, he said "I am especially thankful that the debris didn't destroy my barbecue.  That would have been a real disaster."  

I don't mean to make light of the situation.  One person was killed by this drone attack and 8 others were injured.  But sometimes, a sense of humour is the way people deal with very stressful situations.

2. The Olympics

As you know the Olympic games open this week - on Friday.  Some events start before the official opening. The Israeli men's soccer team will be playing its opening game against Mali on Wednesday.  That is very exciting since it is only the second time  in Israel's history that its soccer team has qualified and will be participating in the Olympic games.  In the first round, Israel will also play Paraguay and Japan.  They will need to come up with some major upsets to get out of this group and advance to the next round.

But the big story in Israel - is the security concerns.  Israeli athletes in a wide range of sports have been receiving death threats, mock funeral notices and subjected to all kinds of other intimidation tactics.  

The athletes all seem resolved to press ahead, represent Israel and put their trust in the security arrangements that are being made to protect them.  But these threats are very frightening and I can imagine that it must be quite difficult to have that additional layer of worry - while preparing for the biggest sports challenge of one's life.

3. Adidas

In a related note, as you might have read, Adidas chose this occasion to roll out a new advertising campaign for a retro shoe - its 1972 version of one of its sneakers.  Hmm.... Adidas chose to use Bella Hadid for its advertising campaign.  Hadid has been a fierce defender of Palestinians and Hamas since the October 7, 2023 attacks.  And as you might recall, 1972 is the year in which Palestinian terrorists attacked Israeli athletes and murdered 11 athletes and coaches.  So when you string all of this together, this was quite obviously a pro-terrorism, anti-Israel campaign by Adidas to commemorate, in a positive way, the massacre of Israeli athletes.  Completely disgusting.  After receiving all kinds of complaints (Not only from Israelis and Jews), Adidas has apparently "suspended" this offensive campaign.  Adidas has claimed that it "didn't make the connection..."  I will leave it to intelligent readers to draw their own conclusions.

4. Ultra-Religious Enlistment    

As you might recall, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that Israeli Haredim (ultra-religious) are no longer entitled to an exemption from the army and must now be recruited like everyone else.  Apparently, today is the first day that thousands of ultra-religious 18 year-olds began receiving conscription orders.  It remains to  be seen whether they will actually report for duty and if so, how many, but there is a sense that the landscape on this issue is starting to change. We may soon seen large numbers of Haredim in the Israeli army.

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu

Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to fly to the U.S. this week and address a joint session of Congress. He is also supposed to meet with President Biden and apparently he will also meet with former President Trump.  The meeting with Biden is contingent of course on whether Biden is healthy enough to meet Netanyahu and whether Netanyahu can be assured that Biden is no longer contagious. Netanyahu is not particularly interested in picking up a case of Covid - even though thousands of Israeli soldiers are risking their lives as we speak in much more dangerous ways.

Netanyahu is, of course, looking to bolster U.S. assistance in the war with Gaza as well as all of the other fronts that Israel is currently facing - including Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Syrians, the Iranians, the Iraqis and other potential threats.  Netanyahu is certainly looking for assurances that the U.S. will continue to supply much needed weaponry as well as diplomatic support.

For the U.S., the current administration is quite interested in bringing the war to an end and is likely to push Netanyahu to agree to a deal.  Apparently, the parties are fairly close to a deal though there are a number of issues that have not yet been resolved.  One issue relates to the Gaza-Egypt border - and what assurances will be in place to keep Hamas from being resupplied with weapons through this border.  Israel would like to retain some level of control over that border which it now controls.

A second concern is that Hamas has been insisting on the right to send armed forces to reestablish control over northern Gaza.  Israel has not been prepared to agree to this condition, which would lead to further hostilities very shortly.

There is some concern that Netanyahu will be using the trip to try to pressure Biden and campaign implicitly (if not explicitly) for Trump, just as he did while Obama was President. It is a calculated gamble by Netanyahu since there is always the possibility that things could turn around for the Democrats and he will have alienated an administration that he would have to work with.  Moreover, it is not even clear that Trump will be as supportive as expected, if Trump does win.  J.D. Vance has espoused some very isolationist views and is certainly unclear that Trump will be as great for Israel as many assume.

Finally, it hasn't escaped anyone in Israel's attention that Prime Minister Netanyahu's son, Yair, will be celebrating his 33rd birthday on Friday July 26, 2024.  Netanyahu will of course stick around after speaking at Congress to help his son celebrate.  It is unclear what form the celebrations will take or whether they will be paid for by the State of Israel. No one seems to know what Yair is even doing in the U.S. but he has requested a diplomatic passport and full 24 hour security detail.  I'm not about to speculate on what Yair has been up to - (other than sending out obnoxious twitter feeds) but I know that his father really enjoys fine wines, Cuban cigars and high end meals.  So it will probably be a pretty nice celebration, wherever it takes place.

6. Flying to Israel

As you may have seen, Air Canada announced that it would now cancel all flights through November 2024 at least between Canada and Tel-Aviv.  El Al stopped flying directly a while ago.  So if you are planning a trip between Toronto and Tel-Aviv, you can either fly through the US and connect with one of the El Al routes - or you can travel through Europe.  El Al flights are generally heavily booked and very expensive.

For my next flight, I am planning to fly Aegean via Greece and the pick up an Air Canada flight.  We will see how that goes.  I haven't tried that route yet.

That's all for now.  As usual, hoping for a deal that leads to the safe return of all of our hostages, the safety of our soldiers, some type of lasting peace deal for the whole region - and best of health for everyone otherwise.

July 2024 Israel Update

We are into the summer months - where it is, of course, very hot here in Israel.  It has been 9 months since Hamas launched its massive terrorist operation and massacre in Israel - and the war is still continuing on several fronts.  So, in my normal blog style, I am writing a few comments about how  things are seen here, where things might be headed - and some other remarks that come to mind.  I'll add in a bit of sports and other comments for fun.

The War

I think in wartime, it is very hard to get any really accurate news.  So my comments are really limited to what I gather from a variety of sources including Israeli news (Ynet Hebrew, the Jerusalem Post, the Times of Israel, Haaretz, Channels 11, 12 and 13 (we don't watch Israeli channel 14 - which is like Fox news but but with less truth and even more extremism).  I also try to read articles in the New York Times, CNN, the Canadian newspapers - and sometimes, for a totally different perspective (though not that often) Al Jazeera.

The war with Hamas in Gaza is continuing on.  Some reports seem to be indicating that the Israeli army is close to determining that it has defeated most of the Hamas armed brigades and that it can only continue with small scale operations.  At the same time, there are still somewhere in the range  of 120 hostages in Gaza, though we do not not how many are still alive - and the main leaders of Hamas including Yihyeh Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh are still alive. I believe that the army planned to conclude this operation in a much shorter time period.  

Things have been slow partially because Israeli has gone out of its way to minimize civilian casualties and partially because the army has also made efforts to minimize Israeli military casualties.  On the Israeli side, 679 soldiers have been killed since October 7, 2023, of whom 323 have been killed in fighting since October 27, 2023.  The official Israeli government site lists a further 4,000 soldiers as having been wounded.

According to Hamas sources, estimates of Palestinians killed are in the range of 35,000.  However, that does not differentiate between civilians and fighters.  Israel had estimated that Hamas had about 30,000 fighters divided into 5 divisions before October 7, 2023.  Israeli military reports indicate that quite a large number of these fighters have been killed or wounded in fighting.  Many others have been captured.  Some Israeli reports had put the percentages at 50-60% of the Palestinian  casualties.  We also know that Hamas tends to exaggerate its numbers.  So there is a strong likelihood that the number of military casualties on the Palestinian side is in the the range of 15,000-20,000, perhaps even more - and the total number of civilian casualties in closer to the range of 10,000.  We do not know the exact numbers but the Israeli troops are not out there fighting and killing civilians.  They are fighting armed military units and it is very likely that this would account for most of the casualties on the Palestinian side.

The point is that the allegations of "genocide" being thrown around against Israel are clearly ridiculous by any sane definition or measure.  It actually degrades the meaning of the word "genocide" to try and suggest that Israel's war against Gaza - falls into the category of situations around the world where civilians are massacred en masse, deliberately - or to even begin to compare this situation to Nazi Germany and the Holocaust or to the slaughter of Armenians by the Turks, the Rwandan genocide or other such atrocities.

There are many reports that suggest that a deal to end the Gaza war is being negotiated but I am not holding my breath at this point, for several reasons.

First of all, at this point, Hamas is looking for a deal where they will return about 22 live hostages (out of about 120) and still stay in power.  Although much of Gaza will have been devasted, Hamas will sell that as a big "win" and will try to rebuild its forces, restock its ammunition and get ready for another round.  This would be a major defeat for Israel - and would leave us with another ticking time bomb.  

It is unclear that Netanyahu is even interested in this type of deal, even though the U.S. is pushing for it, and it is unclear that he can muster political support for it.  Many Israelis, even those who do not support Netanyahu would like to see  a more decisive defeat of Hamas which seems attainable, according to Israeli military sources.  

At the same time, Hamas does not seem that eager for a deal either.  They figure that they have picked up major international support for this war - especially from the despicable leadership of countries like Ireland, Spain and Norway - and they do not really care about civilian casualties.  They would prefer to be able to consolidate power, rebuild and restock and argue that they could not be defeated by Israel - even if that means thousands of additional Palestinian casualties.

Concurrently, Israel is fighting an active war with Hezbollah up north, Iran's proxy forces.   Every day, Israel has been subjected to barrages of rocket attacks, missile attacks and rpgs.  Thousands of Israelis have evacuated their homes and the border towns are all ghost towns - other than military personnel.  Soldiers and civilians are being killed - and shockingly, Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu, previously self-described as "Mr. Security" has done very little to counter all of this.

Many in Israel are calling for a major war in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah and try to move the Hezbollah forces out of the border area in Lebanon.  It is hard to say what will happen but this seems very likely.  There is a possibility that some kind of deal with Hamas will also bring about a deal with Hezbollah.  But a Hezbollah deal seem even less likely than a Hamas deal since Israel would need guarantees that the Hezbollah forces would move back from the border and refrain from attacking Israel. There is such a deal in place from 2016 but Hezbollah has simply refused to honour it.  Any such deal would need enforcement provisions, "teeth" and perhaps real international guarantors.  I suppose anything can happen, but it seems that a major war with Lebanon is more likely than a deal of this type.

Of course the other major threat is an all out war with Iran.  Israeli historian Benny Morris (who at one time was a far left historian and then later moved to the right) has called for Israel to launch an all out war against Iran as the only way of defeating the threat from Hezbollah, Hamas and other enemies and to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat against Israel.  While there is some logic to this given that this whole war has been a proxy war with Iran, I hardly think that Israel, with its 10 million people - is in a position to start launching all out wars on the whole middle east with hundreds of millions of enemies. 

Perhaps Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will win the U.S. election - and will actively support an all out war against Iran.  Or at least the threat of one.  I'm not sure what to say about this - other than it would really throw the whole region into something massive and unpredictable.  As if things are not already difficult enough here. Contrary to Netanyahu's expectations, even if Trump wins, I think it is far from predictable that Trump would support the kinds of activities that Netanyahu has in mind.  

Ultimately the difficulty we have in Israel is that we have a leader, Netanyahu, whose decisions are necessarily coloured by his own political and legal predicament.  If the war ends, his coalition might fall.  His trial might continue.  A national inquiry might be launched.   He could face all kinds of personal and political challenges - that he views as worse than continuing the war.  He could even face new and additional criminal charges.  Yes, this is a cynical view but it is compelling.

Under Netanyahu, who was supposed to provide security, deterrence and a strong military, Israel has never been weaker, even though he has his dream "fully right wing" coalition in place.  The war with Hamas has taken much longer than expected, the hostages have not been released, the leaders of Hamas are still in place and a large number of soldiers have been killed or injured.  

In the north, thousands of Israelis are still displaced, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel at will, and Israel has done very little to respond.  The economy in Israel has faced all kinds of challenges - and relatively few airlines are flying here.  There is simply no way to assess this situation as favourable for Netanyahu unless one is completely blinded by support for him and his party.

Other Israeli Politics

Despite all of the above, Netanyahu's coalition can stay in power until October 2026 unless one of the parties leaves the coalition.  Two of the parties are ultra-orthodox and would have nowhere to go politically.  One of the parties is made up of far-right extremists and they would also have nowhere else to go politically.  So as long as things don't change  dramatically, his government is fairly "safe" for now, contrary to whatever his political opponents or other  commentators might say.

The one potential way that the government could collapse is if his own party collapses internally.  This possibility has been increasing but is still relatively low.

Just to review a few possible issues - Netanyahu's coalition partners have demanded a few things and some members of his own party - have been reluctant to support them.

One major demand of the ultra-orthodox is a blanket military exemption for all "ultra-orthodox" males up to the age of 25.  There were different proposed pieces of legislation in place - and the Israeli supreme Court had issued an ultimatum that this needed to be addressed by June 1, 2024.  When the date came and went and there was still no legislation, the Supreme Court ordered the conscription of the ultra-orthodox.

As a result, the ultra-orthodox have been demanding that the coalition pass a bill to protect them from this Supreme Court decision. (Referred to by opponents as the "Draft Evasion Bill").  Netanyahu is willing to do so. After all, he will do anything to stay in power, seemingly.  But there are more and more rumblings in his party - Likud members who have begun to come out and say that they will not support  this type of bill.  This could lead to a no-confidence motion or it could lead to Netanyahu withdrawing the bill -  and the ultra-orthodox might decide to pull the plug. All in all, I think the latter option is unlikely since any deal they might get would be worse after an election and they know that.

I have to point out that, at the same time, the IDF has indicated that it needs more recruits in the short and long term.  The ultra-orthodox answer is to extend the service time for  existing conscripts and reserve soldiers.  This type of bill has been floated.  But once again - there is quite a bit of resistance to this from other Likud MKs in the governing coalition.

The ultra-orthodox have also been trying to pass another bill - to provide for the centralized hiring of some 600 ultra-orthodox rabbis by the State and to give them the authority to take over religious control of towns and cities across Israel.  This bill has been referred to by opponents as the "Rabbi corruption law."  Once again, a number of Likud members have come forward and stated that they will not support this bill.  So this is another potential area where things could explode.

The far right coalition members have different ideas. They would like annex the west bank, build settlements in Gaza, continue the war - and generally avoid any kind of deal with the Palestinians.  They are threatening to bolt the government if Netanyahu actually reaches a deal with Hamas.  A deal could be saved by the support of other non-coalition Knesset members but this would cause the government to collapse.

Many Israelis listened attentively as the U.S. Supreme Court granted wide reaching immunity to President Trump for various alleged criminal conduct.  Before this whole war broke out with Hamas, Israel had been gripped in a national fight over proposed judicial reform by Netanyahu and his political partners.  The proposed reforms were intended, ultimately, to do exactly what Trump succeeded in doing in the U.S.  Stack the court with a bunch of right wing idealogues who would do whatever he wanted - and then grant  him wide ranging immunity from any criminal charges.  Netanyahu, like Trump, figured that this would be his "get of jail free" card.  So far, Netanyahu has not yet succeeded and the war has probably set him back quite a bit politically in his efforts to get this done.  Netanyahu is, however, looking enviously at Mr. Trump - who probably had quite the celebration  when the Supreme Court immunity decision  came out.

One more comment on Israeli politics.  The Labour Party and the Meretz Party have banded together to form one left wing bloc - though they still have to formally approve the merger.  The party is being led by Yair Golan.  Golan is a  former Israeli general who saved many Israelis on October 7, 2024 when he rushed into action and became a "one-man army" driving around, fighting Hamas terrorists and rescuing Israelis.  He is forceful, opinionated and resolute.  On the one hand, he is of course, a supporter of a strong IDF and not afraid to use IDF forces where appropriate.  On the other hand, he is very much in favour of finding a long term resolution with the Palestinians that is workable - and of protecting democracy in Israel from the threats of those that have been in power currently.  I am not thrilled that they have decided to call the party "the Democrats."  I would have suggested something more Israeli, with less baggage and less Americanized.  At the same time - I think they are likely to do quite well in a national election - and that much of their expected gains will come at the expense of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.  But we may not know until 2026.

Sports

Israelis are huge soccer fans, as you know, so the big news here has been the FIFA Euro 2024 Soccer Tournament. Everyone is watching even though Israelis don't really have a horse in the race.  The games are on at a reasonable time and the soccer is at the highest level in the world (just about).  Once the Euro tournament is over, Israelis will look forward to watching the Israeli national team compete in the men's Olympic soccer tournament for only the second time in Israel's history. Israel will play Mali, Paraguay and Japan.  That should be very exciting. Maybe Israel can come up with a win  or two - and advance to the next round.

My preferred sport as you know is ice hockey.  I stayed up some very late nights to watch the Stanley Cup finals and cheer for the only remaining Canadian team. It was a tough loss for the Edmonton Oilers - but the fact that the Oilers were able to come back from a 3-0 deficit and get to a game 7 was really incredible.  

So with no more ice hockey, I have turned my attention to watching some of the "Coppa America" - the North/South America FIFA soccer tournament.   As you might know, the Canadian national team has advanced to the  semi-finals and will play Argentina on Tuesday night.  That is the furthest any Canadian team has ever advanced in a top level soccer tournament.  While it is expected that Canada will get pummeled by Argentina - anything can happen in one game.  Maybe Canada can pull out a big surprise and get to a final against the winner of Uruguay-Columbia.

I can't say that I have watched very much baseball as the Blue Jays have been atrocious and baseball does  not attract very much viewership at all here.  I'm still happy to go to a game or two when I am in Toronto - and to support the kosher food provider there - that expanded the menu this year.  But it is really more about spending time with friends, enjoying the weather etc., than watching the underperforming Jays play.

Other Comments - Worldwide Protests and Anti-Semitism

I couldn't let this blog conclude without a few other comments on this issue.  As you many know, pro-Hamas "encampments" have been put up all over the U.S. and Canada - and many other places around the world.  

In Toronto, a bunch of hoodlums - (let's not mince words - we can also use "terrorism supporters") invaded the University of Toronto and put up a tent encampment.   They set up their own "security forces" and  controlled entry to the area. They chanted antisemitic slogans, harassed students and others and occupied a chunk of U of T property.  And of course demanded that U of T "divest" from anything to do with Israel.  In what sane universe is this permissible?  U of T should have called in the police immediately, to remove and/or arrest all involved.  This should not  have been allowed to last even one day. I think the University of Alberta took the proper approach when it cleared out a similar encampment immediately. 

But instead, the encampment remained in place for approximately two months.  U of T went to court to get an injunction and the Ontario Superior Court issued a 61 page decision last week - ordering the protesters to dismantle the  encampment and leave  - which they did.  The decision was striking.  The Judge spent the majority of the decision making all kinds of unnecessary comments and  findings that had nothing to do with the real issues - and were simply bad precedents.  In the decision, Justice Koehnen of the Ontario Superior Court, bent over backwards to find that the actions of the protestors were not "antisemitic" or violent  and seems to even suggest that their demands were justified.  Thankfully, he also concluded that the University of Toronto had no legal obligation to negotiate with this band of thugs and that there is no legal right to simply build an encampment and take over a property that belongs to someone else.  From my perspective, this probably should have been a three page decision with those conclusions.

But Israel continues to face these kinds of challenges all around the world from Pro-Hamas/Pro-Palestinian demonstrators who are calling for the destruction of Israel.  Israeli PR efforts have fallen short (other than some major crusaders like Noa Tishby - who has been phenomenal).  This is partially attributable to the disarray of the current Israeli government and its inability to appoint or designate proper and  competent people to lead these efforts.

There are probably other things that I need to cover, but I will have to leave some topics for next time.  My plans to be back in Toronto  were delayed for a bit due to personal reasons but I am hoping to be back in mid-July.  Wishing everyone the best of health - and wishing for peaceful times for all of us, Israel and all of its neighbours (as well as other locations around the world), the release of all of our hostages and the safety of our soldiers.  We are thinking of all of the families of victims, casualties and losses since October 7, 2023 and hoping for better times. 

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah 2024 - Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day and other comments

On this day of Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah (Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day), there are many things to write about.  I was planning to limit this blog to a focus on the Holocaust.  But in light of all of the events taking place in Israel, I had to add some additional comments and discussion. 

Possible Ceasefire Deal?

A few minutes ago, the Israeli press began reporting that Hamas has advised negotiators that it has "accepted" the latest Qatari-Egyptian-U.S. proposal for a three-staged cease fire.  It is unclear whether this will actually go ahead.  But here are, among other things, a few events that took place today.  First of all, Hamas announced earlier that it was leaving negotiations and that it could not trust the Egyptians to broker a deal.  Israel announced that it was asking 100,000-200,000 civilians in Rafiah, Gaza to leave the area so that it could conduct operations in that area (the last remaining stronghold for Hamas military divisions).  

It is noteworthy that Israel did not announce a major call up of its reserves in preparation for this telegraphed incursion.  Nevertheless, hours later, Hamas announced "officially" that it was accepting the cease fire terms.

I do not have the detailed document here - but among other things - this is what is apparently included:

1. 33 kidnapped live Israelis would be returned over a period of 40 days - mainly including women, the elderly and some injured captives. In exchange, Israel would release approximately 100 convicted Hamas murderers and 600 other Hamas prisoners.

2. After the 40 days, Hamas would release additional hostages including soldiers and other civilians in exchange for further releases of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails.  

3.  There is a third stage of agreeing to the rehabilitation of Gaza, the full exchange of other prisoners and remains of dead civilians and soldiers and an extended five year period of non-hostilities.

Reports are that Israel has not agreed to the third stage and that it has only agreed to the second stage conditionally.  Israel has maintained that it has the right to resume operations until its war aims are met.  However, Hamas has announced that it is accepting the deal on the basis of U.S. guarantees that steps 2 and 3 will take place - even without formal Israeli acquiescence.   

This "deal" will create quite a bit of division in Israel.  The deal will leave Hamas in power and in place to rebuild and try to carry out another similar attack.  It will allow Hamas and its leader Yehia Sinwar to claim a form of victory (or stalemate at least).  And it will not bolster any hopes for having a non-Hamas - peace oriented Palestinian leadership in control of Gaza.  In other words, the people of Gaza will continue to be stuck under  the thumb of a brutal Hamas military dictatorship - even if many of them actually chose or supported that type of rule in Gaza.

On the other hand, if Israel does not find a way to release as many hostages as possible immediately, it will be risking the lives of all of these people - and failing in its most basic obligation to its citizenry to protect Israelis and to redeem them when they are taken hostage or held captive somewhere.

I have listened to many different sides of this debate from an Israeli perspective. I am torn.  I am very concerned that we will continue to face the same ongoing cycle of violence from Hamas - and this deal will risk the lives of many Israelis in the future - who will face attacks from a large number of released murderers.

But, on balance, I believe that we must release anyone who is still alive at this point.  If Israel refuses and proceeds with an invasion of Rafiah - that will involve the potential loss of hundreds of our soldiers.  We may not get any of the hostages back.  We are unlikely to be able to fully destroy Hamas.  We will wind up with thousands of Palestinian casualties, many  of whom will be innocent civilians.  And perhaps, most significantly, we will face massive world pressure, especially from the U.S., the EU  and other places - which may have a devastating cost for Israel in terms of world support, economic pressure and general isolation.

It is quite clear to me that Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a deal now - and certainly not this one.  If the deal goes ahead, his government may well face a day of reckoning.  Israel may wind up with an election sooner than anticipated.  However, even though Netanyahu himself may not survive an election, the Israeli public could shift even further to the right as a result of all of the events since October 7th, 2023.  

It is also worth noting that there is no deal with Hezbollah in the north yet - and tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes are still waiting to return.  Many Israeli commentators have indicated that this will only take place after a major war with Hezbollah and Lebanon on Israel's northern border.  I am hopeful that if there is a deal with Hamas, Hezbollah will also agree to some sort of deal - but so far, that is unclear.

As a postscript - while I write this blog - some Israeli officials are saying that Hamas has accepted a "new deal" put together by Qatar and Egypt that Israel has not yet even seen.  Other announcements are that it was the same deal that Israel approved but the U.S. added additional assurances to Hamas that the war would not continue after the 40 days.  I can't really tell you at this point what will happen - and there seems to be quite a mix of opinion from Israeli newscasters and commentators - some of whom think there will be a deal - and many who do not.  At least not at this time.

Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day

Yom  Hashoah v'Hagvurah is one of the most poignant and difficult days on the Israeli calendar.  Israelis attend at remembrance ceremonies across the country on the evening before.  All restaurants and stores are closed from about 6 p.m.  All Israeli television stations and radio stations are dedicated to Holocaust programming.  There are documentaries, interviews, movies and other programs on all night.  

We attended the ceremony in Ra'anana, which focused on the Jews of Kovel, Ukraine this year. Kovel was a town that had 20,000 Jews before World War II, the vast majority of whom were murdered by the Nazis between August and October 1941.  Many were held in the city's large synagogue while knowing that they were about to be murdered.  Some of them wrote their personal stories and prayers on the walls of the synagogue in their own blood, hours before being murdered.  This was obviously a gut wrenching and difficult ceremony to attend.

Afterwards, we watched different Holocaust programming on TV including the National  Remembrance Ceremony from Jerusalem and some other programs featuring the testimony of survivors along with interviews with their children and grandchildren.

One of the most  moving pieces that I watched was an interview with former Israeli Chief Justice Aharon Barak.  Barak is now 87. When he was 5 years old, he miraculously escaped the Ghetto by being hidden in a basket of soldiers' uniforms, along with his mother.  He was hidden by a nearby Lithuanian farmer and his family for a short period of time - and then had to leave.  Another farmer family, Jonas Mozuraitis and his wife Ona, took him and his mother (as well as a few others) and kept them all hidden for almost three years.  The farmer built a double wall with a four foot space in between.  Barak, his mother and the others, were hidden between the walls for entire days and allowed to come out only at night - where they would then spend time with the farmer's family including his children.  Barak eventually came to Israel, studied law, became the Dean at the Hebrew University Law School and eventually the Chief Justice of the Israeli Supreme Court.  The story is nothing short of incredible.

Years later, Barak was asked to meet with Lithuanian officials to provide advice on putting together a constitution - he accepted the invitation on condition that he could meet with the family that had hid him.  Only the farmer's children were still alive.  Barak had a question for them.  "Why did you save us and risk your  lives? he asked.  "If the Nazis had discovered us they would have killed you."  One of the children responded to Barak.  "I don't understand your question.  For us it wasn't a question.  We were religious Catholics.  We believe in our obligation to our fellow human beings, especially those in need.  We saw people who needed help and we knew we had to help  We believe you would do the same."  Barak said the answer has kept him awake every night.  "Would I have the courage and the moral clarity to do the same thing?" He has asked himself repeatedly.  One of  Barak's family members said - the answer is "absolutely."  But Barak was crying while giving this explanation.

Barak, as you might recall, is the Israeli representative on the International Criminal Court which has been hearing the case brought by South Africa alleging that Israel has been carrying out a genocide.  The case is simply outrageous and Barak spoke a bit about it (to the extent that he was able to do so).  Israeli soldiers have been fighting back against  Hamas in a war that Hamas declared on October 7th.  While there have been a large number of civilian Palestinian casualties, the Israeli army has taken extraordinary steps to minimize those casualties.  Israel is fighting an enemy that has set up bases in hospitals, mosques and dense residential areas.  Hamas has transported its fighters in UNRWA vehicles and red cross ambulances.  Sometimes they wear press badges.  Hamas has fired missiles and then hidden underground in tunnels while exposing the civilian population to Israeli responses to the missile fire in those very same areas.

On the other hand, the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas were deliberate attacks involving  massacres of civilians - including torture, burning victims alive, rape and all kinds of other atrocities.  The notion that Israel would be charged with genocide for attacking Hamas in response to these crimes against humanity is ludicrous.

All of this context was explored this year during Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day by a wide range of speakers - who also sounded warning bells about the massive worldwide increase in antisemitisms and anti-Semitic attacks.  A special focus has been on U.S. university campuses and some of the completely unacceptable responses by these universities to the targeting of Jewish students on campuses.  Columbia University has, of course, been singled out as one of the worst offenders though the situation across the U.S. is quite grim, especially as viewed through the eyes of Jewish Israelis.  

Of course Canada is not much better.  The University of Toronto is continuing to allow a pro-Hamas encampment on its property - which is actively trying to prevent Jews from entering the area.  Is this 2024?  

Anti-Jewish attacks, rallies and other public antisemitic acts and comments, can all remind us, anytime, but especially on Holocaust Remembrance Day, how things that start like this can quickly descend into much much worse scenarios.

Lighter Note

On a lighter note (compared to everything that is going on here), I stayed up on Saturday night to watch the Maple Leafs blow yet another 7 game series and bow out of the playoffs in the  first round - even with a team loaded with highly paid superstars.  Once again, a tremendous, yet perhaps predictable  disappointment for a Toronto Maple Leafs hockey fan.  At least I saved some money on playoff tickets - though I was looking forward to being back in Toronto for Round 3 or Round 4 - even at an insane cost of $750 per ticket for my lowly purple seats if the Leafs had made it to the finals.  

Here in Israel, the Yes Cable system was showing Leafs' playoff games on Sports 5+ - channel 59 - at 3 a.m.  But wouldn't you know it - they showed games 1 to 6 but not game 7. So I had to stream the CBC using a VPN.  That wound up working out fine.  Unfortunately, no one wanted to stay up and watch with me - so I had to keep from falling asleep on my own.  With overtime, I think the game ended around 6 a.m. on Sunday morning.

My other light note - is that Israel is getting a few days of  unseasonal rain.  The weather forecaster called it the "return of winter" - even though the temperature has not dipped much below 20C.  Some winter...(says the Canadian...)

I will try to write more in the coming days as we have Yom Hazikaron (Israel Remembrance Day for  Soldiers and Victims of Terror), Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day), the Eurovision Festival, and the pending invasion of Rafiah, Gaza or a possible cease fire deal.  Lots to discuss.

I wish everyone the best of health - and  peace.

 

Blog from Israel - March 2024

I have had a look and it has been about three months since  I have written a blog.  So I thought it was time for an update.  I plan to cover a range of topics - not necessarily with significant depth - but there are so many things going on here that I thought it would be worthwhile covering a few of them.  Things are quite busy at work (my day job) so it is hard to devote a great deal of time to an unpaid hobby - as important as my updates might be.  I will try to include some headings so you can skip to whatever you might find interesting....

1. Getting to and from Israel

I thought I would start with this one - since some of you might be planning or thinking about planning trips to Israel in the coming months.  Since October, 2023, "commuting" has become extremely challenging.  As you might know, Air Canada suspended its service to Israel on October 7, 2023 as did many other airlines.  Only El Al continued its service to Israel uninterrupted as did a handful of other airlines - including Emirates Airlines.  (Though has you know, El Al had cancelled its direct Toronto service more than a year ago in any case).

Air Canada has announced that it will be resuming service effective April 8, 2024, but there is still no end to the war in sight - so I guess what I would say is "I'll believe it when I see it."  

Over the years, as you may know, I have been doing my best to fly Air Canada as often as I can.  The Aeroplan program is better than the available alternatives and Air Canada has been the only airline with direct service since El Al cancelled its direct service to Toronto.

So since October, I have tried to find ways to get to Israel from Toronto by combining Air Canada and El Al.  I have flown through Rome, Amsterdam and London with these combinations.  These were challenging connections to say the least, especially if you have luggage.  Since there is no sharing agreement between airlines, you have to land, exit the airport, collect your baggage and then check in again.  I would say that the Rome airport was reasonably efficient - especially for Canadian passport holders - as they have a quick line for holders of passports from certain countries, including the EU, U.S. and Canada.  Amsterdam was a disaster.  The immigration line alone there took more than an hour.  

In London, the exit was almost as quick as Rome - but then I had to take a train - (way, way, way down) to switch terminals.  The whole process  took forever.

Considering everything, I was prepared to make the best of it and arrange a few more flights via Rome.  The problem is that the connection is great leaving Israel going back to Toronto.  But from Toronto - you have to plan on spending a day in Rome.  

Okay - things could be worse.  For one of my flights, I locked up my baggage and spent a day in Rome.  I went for lunch at a Kosher Tunisian restaurant -  (which was interesting - but I probably should have gone with the Kosher Italian food instead....) and walked around the city for several hours.  I managed to visit the Trevi Fountain, several other sites and, ultimately, a great gelato place.

But more recently, all of the airlines have upped their fares considerably.  To fly via Rome this time, the fares were over $3,000 Canadian for economy class, with a lengthy delay.   I couldn't find any other reasonable alternatives.

So I wound up trying Air France via Paris - with a 1.5 hour connection in Paris.  It sounded questionably optimistic but it was less than 1/2 the price of other alternatives.  The flight itself from Toronto to Paris on Air France was fine.  Reasonably comfortable seats, decent entertainment system and fairly good service.  We arrived in Paris a bit early - but... sat on the tarmac for almost an hour and  missed the connection.  So me and seven other Israelis - my "lonsmen" (actually there were no women in the group so it was really only lonsmen) were put on an alternate flight - the next day.  We were given vouchers for a hotel near the airport, vouchers for food at the hotel and at the airport - and instructions for a free shuttle to and from the hotel.  

I suppose things could be worse than an overnight in Paris. After resting for a while in the hotel (a medium end airport Moxy Hotel), I shared an Uber ride with some of my fellow Israelis and headed off to the Eiffel Tower. From there, we walked over to the Left Bank area, taking in the sights and sounds of Paris along the way.  It was quite an inconvenient stopover but we made the best of it.  I have applied for the EU compensation (which is supposed to be 600 Euros for the missed connection, at the fault of the airline) but let's see if that arrives.

On the way back to Toronto - I am travelling through Amsterdam with one of my family members and we have an overnight there.  The alternative is paying 3-4 times as much.  So we will see how that goes.  

For now, all of this has meant fewer  Aeroplan points, travelling without any benefits - and very inconvenient connections.  There are El Al flights through New York and other cities in the U.S., though the prices have also increased dramatically.  I am also not a big fan of transiting through the U.S. if I an avoid it - due to the incredibly long and inefficient security (especially compared  to most of the big European airports).  As well, the El Al loyalty program is terrible comparatively.  

All in all, these are small problems compared to challenges that Israel is facing with an ongoing war. Our soldiers are in constant danger including our standing army and our reserve soldiers.  The civilian population is also under threat of terrorist attacks, missile attacks, and other threats.  The Northern border is in a state of all out war - or close to it.  And of course all of the  areas surrounding Gaza have been devastated.  So my concerns about getting to and from Israel - are minor in comparison to everything else.  But for people considering coming here, I thought it might be worth writing about the options.

I have also seen available flights on Ethiopian Airways, Emirates/Air Dubai and Lot Polish.  Some of these flights can include total flying time of 30-40 hours with lengthy stopovers in different places - sometimes with two or three connections.

So I have joined the Air France loyalty program and used the opportunity to practice my French a bit.  "Un vin rouge s'il vous plait"....and "Un  autre vin rouge s'il vous plait...".  Merci.  Actually there was more - "un cognac s'il vous plait" - Air France is well stocked with beverage options.

2. The Government

The current Israeli government is facing a wide range of challenges and grappling with many different fault lines.   As you may know, it still has a 64-56 coalition majority. None of the coalition partners have anywhere else to go, ideologically, so I would be surprised if the government were to collapse any time soon notwithstanding the apparently vast unpopularity of the current leadership.

One of the most interesting issues - is the enlistment of the Ultra-Orthodox (the "Haredim").  A whole megillah could be written about this issue.  The short version is that the first Prime Minister of Israel, David Ben Gurion, agreed to a "compromise" with the ultra-religious community back in 1948 whereby a relatively small number of yeshiva students would be exempt from military service to be able to continue their religious studies full-time.

Over the years since 1948, through various coalition deals, the number of exempt ultra-orthodox has ballooned greatly -  to the point where the entire community of ultra-orthodox Jews have been granted exemptions from the army, provided that they study in yeshivahs.  

Various court challenges were brought by different groups - and the Israeli Supreme Court decided, on several instances, that these arrangements were not fair - since different classes of citizens were being treated differently.  The Court gave the government time to negotiate and enact a law to address the situation.  But the ultra-religious have been having none of it and have been demanding a blanket override law - a "notwithstanding clause" if you will - that exempts all of them permanently - even while their population is growing at a dramatic rate relative to the non-haredi population.

This current government is made up of close to 25% ultra-orthodox members - which demanded support for this exemption as a term of supporting Netanyahu.

Now the Supreme Court had given the government until April 1, 2024 to enact a law to address the situation.  While there have been negotiations - there is no law - and nothing close to a law.  So the Court has stated that effective April 1, 2024, the government will need to cease funding any yeshivas that are not sending their students to the army.

Needless to say the Haredim are promising full civil disobedience.

The ultra-religious parties are threatening to quit the government but they have nowhere to go.  No other party will give them a better deal.  Causing an election now is almost certainly a recipe for disaster for the ultra-religious (and perhaps for the rest of the extreme right wing).  So it seems like they are going to huff and puff quite a  bit - but it is hard to imagine that they will actually blow the house down (i.e. cause the government to fall).

Even so, this promises to be a fascinating issue to watch in the coming weeks.

3. The War

It is hard to know what is really going on with respect to the progress of the war.  There are reports across world wide media - and there are daily reports from the Israeli military spokesperson and various Israeli media outlets.

According to one report I read yesterday, that seemed reasonably reliable, Israeli intelligence had estimated that there were about 30,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters before the war.  Revised estimates seem to put the numbers closer to 40,000-45,000.

Israeli reports of dead, injured and captured Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters total between 25,000 and 30,000.  So Israel seems to believe that it has immobilized approximately 3/4 of the fighting forces that it was facing.  It seems that the majority of the remaining forces are in Rafiah -which is likely to be the final area of fighting - even as other fighting continues across Gaza.

Note that the Hamas "Health Ministry" claims that the number of dead Gazans is around 30,000.  That number includes civilians and fighters.  In other words, if Israel's numbers are correct and the number of dead fighters in the range of 20,000-25,000 - the number of dead civilians is actually quite low for a conflict of this scope and nature, which includes urban fighting with Hamas using its people as human shields.

That is not to say that anyone feels good about dead Gazan civilians.  But this is hardly a "genocide" or the intentional killing of civilians.  Gaza has a population of approximately two million.  If Israel was setting out to kill civilians intentionally, the numbers would be in the hundreds of thousands.  But Israel is not Russia - or Syria - or other constituent member countries of the UN that routinely carry out those types of massacres but only vote to sanction Israel.

While Israel is fighting a messy campaign in Gaza against a ruthless terrorist army, it is also fighting a major war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border with Lebanon.  This war has been escalating constantly since October 7, 2024.  As of today, Hezbollah and Lebanon have not decided to unleash a full scale war with Israel - which would involve sending thousands of rockets all over Israel.  In response, Israel would almost certainly flatten Beirut and many other Lebanese cities.  So far, Hezbollah has been fighting an aggressive war, launching RPGs and killing many Israelis - while shelling a range of northern Israeli cities.  In response, Israel has been shelling Hezbollah locations, launching air raids and attacking Hezbollah locations across Lebanon.  But it has not launched a full out attack on Beirut or turned the fighting into a "full-scale war."  But effectively, there is a very dangerous war going on in the north and thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes and cannot return.  

Cities like Kiryat Shemona are ghost towns - with only solders and various armored units in place.

Many Israelis believe that Israel will need to launch a full out war with Hezbollah before this all ends - to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border to where it should be (in line with UN resolutions).  The only other alternative is a negotiated arrangement with Hezbollah whereby Hezbollah would agree to move back from the border.  This does not seem to be close.

4. The Hostages

As you know, it is believed that Hamas is continuing to hold approximately 130 Israeli hostages.  Some reports have indicated that anywhere from 30 to 50 of these hostages have been reported dead.  But the family members of these hostages - and indeed - all Israelis - continue to hope that all of the hostages will return to Israel alive.

Some of the released hostages have provided detailed reports of the atrocities they faced while in Hamas captivity - including sexual violence  - which is still being denied in some circles of pro-Hamas supporters.  The New York Times, to its credit, has recently published extensive details of many of these atrocities.

Many Israelis are calling on the government to do everything it can to win the release of the hostages - even if that means making an unpalatable deal with Hamas.  But the Hamas demands are not just unreasonable - there are completely unacceptable - not just to Netanyahu but across most of the Israeli spectrum of opinion.  Hamas has stated quite publicly that it would like to take a "pause" and then do this again - on an even bigger scale.

So is is unclear what kind of deal, if any, can be made with Hamas.  In my view, Israel will need to launch a full scale operation in Rafiah and destroy the remaining Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighting forces.  There really aren't many other choices.

5.  World Response

At the outset of the war, President Biden visited Israel, sent aircraft carriers and demonstrated complete support for Israel and its response.  It is hard to imagine that any President (including the orange headed guy) would have demonstrated such significant support for Israel at a time of crisis.

But as the war has progressed, the relationship with the United States has unquestionably deteriorated.  For one thing, Biden has been losing support to Trump.  Some commentators have claimed that this is because  of the Israel-Gaza file.  I'm actually not convinced - since it is hard to imagine that the Republicans would be better for the pro-Gaza crowd.  But the perception seems to be that Biden needs to shore up his left, "progressive" wing - which means putting more distance between his government and the Israeli leadership.

President Biden now seems to be intent on "rewarding" the Palestinians for this massive terror operation by setting up a Palestinian State, perhaps even unilaterally.  While this is  not yet official U.S. policy - there is a definite sense that this is emerging as a U.S. option.

Granted, Prime Minister Netanyahu is part of a very extreme government that has no interest (and probably never has had any interest) in reaching any kind of agreement with any Palestinians.  So that does not make things easy for Biden or anyone else.

But the real narrative here  -  is that Israel is dealing with a very extreme, radical, movement, intent only on Israel's destruction, that launched an all out war on October 7, 2023.  There is no proposal by Hamas or by the Islamic Jihad for peace or anything close to it.  Historically, we know what must be done to fight these types of regimes. They must be defeated completely.  It doesn't seem to me that this war  will end until Yihyah Sinwar and his henchmen are caught, dead or alive and until Hamas effectively surrenders.

I believe that President Biden would get much more traction pushing for that result - even as a negotiating tactic.  If Hamas understands that the U.S. will support Israel in finishing off the Hamas military, whatever the cost - for Israel and for Gazan civilians - Hamas will lessen its demands dramatically and perhaps even surrender.  But failing to veto a UN resolution calling for an "immediate cease fire" is a completely unhelpful move.  Just imagine  supporting a call for a U.S. cease fire while the U.S. was fighting the Nazis.  

As for Canada - the situation is completely embarrassing, ridiculous and at all odds with any reasonable morally supportable position.  Perhaps that is where the Canadian leadership figures it will obtain its votes or perhaps they have simply shown their true colours.  But joining the company of Ireland, Turkey, Iceland and  other anti-Israel protagonists is just not a well thought out position for Canada - which may well face its own security challenges down the road as the numbers of extremist Muslims  in Canada continue to rise.  So far, Canada has seen a massive growth in anti-Semitic activity - which has included blockading bridges in Jewish neighbourhoods, demonstrating outside synagogues, attacking Jewish owned stores and businesses and a whole host of other activities.

Instead of unequivocally condemning these incidents - the Federal government has used some very questionable language and has exacerbated the situation.  For the Jewish community at least, it is quite clear that Canada is in drastic need of a change of leadership.

All of this aside, Israel drastically needs its own  change  of government though that is unlikely to happen any time soon.  Nevertheless, the response from this current Israeli government to the October 7th attacks by Hamas would have been pretty much the same from any Israeli government that might have been in power, in my view.  Israel needs to destroy the threat from Hamas, find a way to return the hostages, or as many of them  as possible - and only then move to considering a long term solution for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

6. The Holidays

On a lighter note (in some ways), Israel celebrated the holiday of Purim last week.  Unfortunately, I picked up a case of Covid while visiting the City of Lights - and had to skip my usual Megillah reading.  I usually read chapter 8 - and sometimes 9 and 10 here at our shul in Israel.  

We still received a few nice mishloach manot (Purim gift baskets) including one really interesting one.  Friends of ours gave us a "do-it-yourself" Tabouleh kit - with fresh vegetables from Israeli farms in the vicinity of Gaza.  It was quite a fun and thoughtful idea and we enjoyed putting it together.

I ate my share of hamentaschen, even  while under the weather.  There was definitely a subdued feel to Purim in Israel this year as I am sure there was in the Jewish community throughout the world.

It is  now time to start getting ready for Pesach though we still have a few weeks.  Enough time for a trip back to Toronto before the holiday and maybe a chance to get some  work done. 

I think that is about all I am going to cover for now.  I know there is lots more to say and hopefully I will have the chance to write another blog shortly.  

We are continuing to hope and pray for some good news here in Israel. We have lost so many of our soldiers - 598 as of the time of writing of this blog - and so many more have been injured (more than 3,100).  Since this is a people's army - that means that we all know someone who was injured or killed in the fighting.  We know of friends and neighbours and their children who are now stationed in Gaza or  on Israel's northern or eastern borders. And unfortunately, we know of people from our city, our synagogue, our children's schools and other places that have been killed or injured since October 7, 2023.

At this time, I think the best we can do is hope that the Israeli army can win a decisive victory or otherwise cause Hamas to surrender as soon as possible and we can then look to how to deal with the broader conflict with a long term view.

On a final note - I have to point out that Israeli clocks are officially moving ahead by one hour tonight - yes we are finally "springing ahead" - a few weeks after North America.  So as I finish off this blog - and perhaps watch a bit of the Leafs-Capitals game before going to sleep - it is with the unfortunate knowledge that I will be losing an hour of sleep tonight.

Shabbat Shalom and best regards from Israel.

Pre-Rosh Hashanah Blog 2023/5784- From Israeli Supreme Court to the Israeli National Soccer Team

There are so many things going on in Israel that it is difficult to keep up.  It would be nice to leave my law career and  become a full-time blog writer - but things are busier than ever in my real world -  so don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.  That (and maybe some travelling) explains the limited number  of articles that I have written lately.  But as Rosh Hashanah approaches - I just could not avoid writing about yesterday's Supreme Court hearing - one of Israel's most monumentous days in its 75 year history - from a legal point of view.  I will try to keep my discussion of the hearing reasonably short and touch on a  few other topics as well before wrapping up with some Rosh Hashanah thoughts.

Supreme Court of Israel Hearing on "Reasonableness"

It would probably take a 10 page blog, at least, to cover this properly but here is the relatively short version.

The Israeli Supreme Court consists of 15 judges.  In most cases, only some of the judges sit in panels for hearings.  The Chief Justice, along with other members, selects the number of judges, in odd numbers to hear cases.  Usually, it is not more than 11 judges, for very serious issues.  So for example, earlier this year, 11 judges sat together to decide whether Aryeh Deri, the thrice  convicted fraudster, could serve as a cabinet member in the  current government.  The ruling was 10-1 against Deri.

As I understand it, yesterday was the first time in Israeli history where all 15 judges took part in a hearing.  For those interested in legal issues - this was like a national championship event of Supreme Court advocacy.  Don't  worry I will  tie in the sports analogy a bit later.

As you might recall, maybe even from reading one of my previous blogs, the current Netanyahu government passed a "Basic Law Amendment" which removes the power of the Israeli Supreme Court to quash (void or nullify) government actions and decisions on the basis of extreme unreasonableness.

There is a long history about how the Supreme Court of Israel came to have this power but it has been a part of Israeli jurisprudence since  the 1950s.  As you may know, Israel does  not have a written  constitution but does have a series of "basic laws."  The short version of all of this discussion is that the Israeli Supreme Court, over time, expanded its jurisdiction to conduct "judicial review" of other legislation using the  "basic laws" which it elevated to quasi-constitutional status.  This means that the Israeli Supreme Court decided (led by then  Chief Justice Aharon Barak) that it had the power to cancel laws or decisions put forward by the Knesset if they violated the basic laws.  One of the main tests was whether the law or action proposed was "extremely unreasonable."  This has been part of the Israeli legal landscape for more than  20 years and maybe closer to 30.  The Supreme Court views this power as one of the checks on the power of a Knesset majority government - which could, otherwise, effectively enact any laws or measures, including those which might trample on the rights of minorities.

But unlike the situation in Canada, for example, where there is a written  constitution that gives the Supreme Court these  powers expressly, the Israeli Supreme Court accrued these powers over time, through precedent, or "took them" as opponents might say.

So the current Netanyahu government decided to try and "set the clock back" or, in other words, overturn 30 years of judicial precedent by enacting a law to reduce the powers of the Court.  They called it a "Basic Law Amendment" to try and give it quasi constitutional status.

Opponents of the legislation  brought a petition to the Supreme Court to strike the law.  In another  bizarre historical first, the Israeli AG is supporting the petitioners and the government retained its own private lawyers.

So yesterday, the Supreme Court conducted a marathon 13 hour session to  hear arguments about what they should do. 

As you might know from reading my blogs - this  type of constitutional, academic, political, philosophical hearing - is the type of hearing that I would have loved to watch and hear (if  not participate in) in its entirety.  Alas I was swamped with other deadlines - and could only watch and listen to parts of it.   But it was riveting!  

Some of the  questions being  discussed....

Where does the  Israeli Supreme Court derive its power to overturn government legislation?

How are the rights of minorities protected in Israel?

How can  the Basic Law be amended? 

Where is the proper balance in a modern democracy between the legislative arm and the judicial arm of government?  

If you weaken the judiciary - is it only the voters that can "oversee" the legislature?

My "short" summary is that I have no idea what the Court will do with this.  It is extremely difficult and complicated and there is no easy answer.  One popular prediction is that the Court will send it back to the Knesset with a need for "amendments" but won't strike  it out entirely.  I do think it will be a split decision and we may wind up with as many as five or six different opinions.   It is almost certain that there will be several hundred, if not thousands of pages to read. 

Apparently, we  can expect a decision within two months, so maybe I will  write  a longer blog analyzing that when in comes out.  I could go on and on about the  hearing but  it would take  me a full day and I'm not even sure you would want to read all of it.  Some of you might...

One of my "mentions of the day" which has attracted quite a great deal of press attention in Israel - is the Netanyahu government's lawyer Ilan Bombach, who asserted that Israel's "hastily drawn Constitution" does not give the Supreme Court the rights it has exercised over its history.  That led to a heated and fascinating exchange.  There is a bit of truth to what Bombach asserted but far more rhetoric, exaggeration and spin than truth, in my view.  We will see if his advocacy approach was effective.  In my  experience, one has to be cautiously assertive, even forceful, while trying to avoid insulting the judicial panel hearing the case outright - but then again, I'm not the one appearing at the Supreme Court.

Sports News

On the same day that the Supreme Court had its hands full - the Israeli National Soccer team played a huge game against Belarus - in its ongoing campaign to earn a spot in the 2024 Euro Soccer Tournament.  A few nights before, Israel had eked out a tie against Romania.  Israel still has to play four more  games - two relatively "easy" ones -  two more difficult.  Sometimes the "easy" ones are the hardest to win.  The games will be  played in October and November - and will determine whether  Israel earns a spot  in the  June 2024 tournament.  From my research, it looks like Israel has not actually played in a major world  soccer tournament since 1970.  There is still a long way to go  but Israel's late goal victory over Belarus yesterday was a huge step forward for the Israeli side.  So the Israeli soccer team was playing some of its most meaningful soccer ever while the Supreme Court was hearing one of its most consequential cases.   Did that tie it in enough?

Entertainment

I was hoping to watch the latest "Jewish Double Header" that so many people  are talking  about - "Golda" and  "You are so not invited to my Bat Mitzvah."  I wanted to include discussions  of both movies in my blog - but that will have to wait until next time.  Very different types of content, of course, - but I'll let you know if there  is a way to tie the two together - other than temporal proximity of their respective release dates and the fact that there is  some  type of Jewish theme or content to both movies.  If you have seen one or both, I welcome all comments.

Podcasts

I used my subway and airline travel time rather productively in June and  July and into  August and listened to all 70 episodes of an Israeli podcast called "The Party of Thoughts."  This is a political, philosophical podcast that addresses contemporary (and not so contemporary) issues in Israel including the nature of the country as a  Jewish and democratic country, competing philosophical ideas about modern democracy, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and many other issues. It is led by Micah Goodman, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, and Efrat Rosenberg Shapiro, an excellent and very experienced moderator.  In Hebrew, it is called "Mafleget Hamachshavot" and is available on Spotify.  Goodman and Rosenberg try to  explain different sides on many different issues and try to present a wide range  of viewpoints with empathy, understanding and respect.  They are both self-described Orthodox Jews but many ideas are discussed with a very liberal  bent.  Different podcasts examine  ideas of Jewish religious leaders - from Biblical times through Rambam, Hassidic Rabbis, and more contemporary Jewish thinkers  from Rabbi Avraham Isaac Cook to modern day Rabbis.  Others deal with Israel's legal development and history including Israel's current constitutional status.   Many other issues  are addressed.

The podcast is all in Hebrew - so you should only try to tackle this if your Hebrew is up to the challenge.   If you are interested, Micah Goodman has given a number of lectures in English on YouTube and some are very good.  I wouldn't say that I agree with everything on these podcasts - but I found many of them to be thought provoking, reasonably balanced - and filled with all kinds of references and discussions - of historians,  philosophers, theologians, political scientists and others.  This is not confined to Jewish thinkers or ideas - but includes discussions of far Eastern ideas, Plato, Marx, Rousseau, Hobbes, Locke as well as many other philosophers and other thinkers.  I learned quite a bit and really enjoyed it.  Thanks to my daughter for  the suggestion.  It is apparently a very popular podcast in Israel, listened to many different people, including many on different sides of the political spectrum.

Ultimately, Goodman and Rosenberg propose various types of compromises - for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian issue, the current constitutional crisis in Israel - and other issues.  Again, I'm not saying I agree with their proposals  but they are very interesting.

Holidays

I supposed it is now time to get into High Holyday mode.  I have been a bit slow off the mark because of general busyness with my work -  and  some travel and family occasions (happy events).  I don't  have any particular role for Rosh Hashanah (in the past, I have  often read some or all of the Torah readings or lead services) - other than to make a few dishes - including a honey apple cake - thanks to Tori Avey's delicious recipe.

For the following week, I will be leading Kol Nidrei and Neilah tefillot at our community services in a friend's  backyard - so if you (or anyone you know) happen to be in Ra'anana and  would like to join an egalitarian liberal service - let me know.  

That's about it for now - I wish everyone a happy and  healthy New Year - with hopes for good health, peace, less political  tension, more moderation - and lots of laughter.  Shana Tova.

Dramatic Escalations across Israel in response to Netanyahu Action

I don't usually write two consecutive blogs in such a short period of time - but things have taken quite a turn in Israel - and it is very unclear where all of this is headed.

As I mentioned in my last blog, the Israeli Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, a stalwart Netanyahu supporter and high ranking member of the Likud party announced on Thursday March 23rd - that he was going to hold a press conference at 7:30 p.m.  Supposedly he was going to announce that he was calling on Prime Minister Netanyahu to slow down the current "judicial reform" and meet with opposition members to try and negotiate an agreement.  Netanyahu summoned Gallant to a meeting and apparently cajoled him into cancelling his  press conference.  Shortly afterwards, leaks appeared indicating that Gallant had told Netanyahu  he would wait a few days to see how Netanyahu was dealing with things.

However, later that evening, Netanyahu held a press conference and announced that it would be full speed ahead and he would not consider slowing down at all.

As a result, Saturday night saw the biggest demonstrations to date across the country.  Today, Gallant held  a press conference and announced that he could not support Netanyahu's current legislative program and - that Netanyahu was endangering the country.

This evening, Netanyahu fired Gallant from the Minister of Defence position.  As a result, tens of thousands Israelis took to the streets, blocking highways, roads and protesting in a wide range of places.  Since the demonstrations started earlier this evening, police have estimated that numbers have exceeded 700,000 Israelis currently in the streets demonstrating across the country.

It has become especially clear over recent days, that Netanyahu will not stop at anything until his judicial coup is completed and he has his "get out of jail free card."  Even though he was warned by a close ally that his policies were endangering national security, Netanyahu simply chose to disregard the warnings and double down on his proposals.

There have been some articles in different newspapers (including one in the National Post yesterday) arguing that this legislative agenda being proposed by Netanyahu and his allies is really no great concern to Israel as a democratic state.  But try reconciling that thesis with one of today's announcements - Yariv Levin - the "architect" of the proposed emasculation of the Supreme Court wants to use his new legislation to fire the head of the Israeli Supreme Court - and appoint a hand picked buddy, a "professor" from a second tier Israeli law school - to take over as the President (the "Chief Justice") and advance Levin's extremist policies.  Levin also wants to appoint other judges to the Supreme Court immediately to tilt the balance of the court.

Levin and his allies have also floated the idea of extending the  period of time before the next election  Further, Levin has stated that this is only his "first stage."

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been demonstrating to indicate that they will not give up their democratic rights.  But it  is not only demonstrators.  Soldiers are starting to refuse to show up for duty.  Police offers are supporting the demonstrators.  There are major fissures going on  - and Netanyahu is allowing the extremists to continue to drive the bus.

The government is planning to try and ram through the Knesset several pieces of legislation this week - including a law to reinstate convicted criminal Aryeh Deri to a ministerial position and another law to allow the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court.  But it is now becoming unclear that the Likud party will be able to get all of its members to support these extreme legislative initiatives.

If the legislation does pass, the  civil unrest will become increasingly widespread across the country.  The army will become increasingly fractured.  The Supreme Court will face dramatic tests to the limits of its authority - as these pieces of legislation are challenged in that Court.  And there will be strikes and demonstrations  across the country.

If the legislation is put to a  vote and does not pass - this government will almost certainly collapse.

So overall, the coming week - and indeed the coming months are likely to be extremely tense, dramatic and unpredictable.  One can only hope that saner heads will prevail and responsible Knesset members will find a way  to get things under control.  Unfortunately, Netanyahu is showing no signs that he will be one of those "adults  in the room."  In fact, it has become completely clear that his own flagrant conflict of interest has made him entirely unfit to serve as the Prime Minister until his personal criminal issues are resolved.

Massive Demonstrations in Israel, some sightseeing and Pesach Preparations in Israel, some

 

We are about 11 days  before Passover and Israel is in the midst of one of the most tumultuous periods it has ever seen.  Police have estimated that  more than 200,000 people attended demonstrations in Tel-Aviv tonight and tens of thousands of others protested in other cities across the country. In the photo on the left, you can see police deploying water cannons after protesters blocked off the main Tel-Aviv highway  - the Ayalon - for more  than two hours.  As we are now close to midnight - police are stepping up the amount of force that they are prepared to use to disperse the protesters.  Unlike what might take place at other demonstrations in other places - the police have, generally, been using very moderate levels of force.  They are not (yet) coming at protesters with  shields, helmets and  batons.  Many are on horseback - but many others are not even  wearing helmets or unholstering any weapons. Instead they are trying to push, persuade, cajole - and  sometimes arrest protesters.  Certainly, some officers have  become much more  violent and there have been several instances of injuries to protesters.   But by and large, from the reports and live videos, the police have been relatively patient and non-violent.

As you have probably heard by now, the protests are against legislation that the current Netanyahu government is trying to push through.  I reviewed the essence of the legislation in an earlier  blog, here.  Netanyahu and his allies call the legislation "judicial reform" whereas the opposition calls it a "judicial coup."  The Likud member responsible for trying to pass a whole array of legislation is Yariv Levin, who has stated that is only the "first stage" of his "reforms."

Commentators from across the political spectrum from the far left to the centre right have characterized this whole legislative program as a dramatic change to Israel's legal status quo.  In an nutshell, the laws that have been proposed would weaken the power of the Israeli Supreme Court dramatically, change the appointment process from a relatively non-political process to one that is almost entirely political, allow for the Knesset to override any Supreme Court decision and make other changes that would remove most  backstops from the ability of the Knesset, with a bare 61-59 majority to pass just about any legislation.

With no judicial oversight, and a far-right wing government intent on enacting legislation in all kinds over areas, the prospects are frightening.  But reaction from a wide range of Israeli citizens, institutions, businesses and other sources has been energetic, aggressive and powerful.  Various army personnel have indicated that will refuse to serve the country in any type of voluntary capacity.  Businesses have threatened to leave the country.  Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been demonstrating regularly.

For all of those protesting, they are not willing to see Israel turn into Turkey, Russia, Hungary or other countries led by military strongmen.  Even within Netanyahu's Likud party, there are a growing number of dissenters, who are being pressured from all directions.  If the number reaches  5 or 6 Likud party members who are willing to stand up and block the legislation - or at least abstain, the government could even face an existential threat (which didn't really seem possible or likely just a few weeks ago). Tonight, the Likud defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, held a press conference and announced that he would not support the legislative process.  Shortly afterwards, several other Likud members expressed their support for Gallant.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu was in London for meetings and a weekend getaway.  He has not officially responded to Gallant yet.  On Thursday, Gallant had indicated that he was about to hold a press conference at 7:30 p.m.  However, Netanyahu  summoned Gallant to a meeting and Gallant cancelled his press conference.  According to reports, Gallant gave Netanyahu some more time to try and work things out.   As it turns out, Gallant wasn't willing to give the Prime Minister more than two days.

So now the question becomes whether Gallant has enough support behind him in the Likud party to stop the legislation.  Since the Netanyahu  bloc currently has a 64-56 Knesset majority, Gallant would need the support of 4 other Likud members to ensure that the legislation could be blocked.  This would created a huge political fissure for the Likud party and could well lead to another election.  It may also cause the party to split into two or more factions.  

Very unpredictable.  On the one hand, many moderate Likud members are not in favour of extreme legislation, which is all rather transparently designed to keep Netanyahu out of  legal trouble .  On the other hand, the Likud party members would like to stay in power.  After finally winning an election, even though their "win" is only made possible with the support of extremists, they are not anxious to relinquish power.  I think we are in for a very dramatic week and - in fact - very dramatic months to come in Israel.

Overall, it is comforting to see that hundreds of thousands of Israelis are not prepared to watch Israel turn into a de facto dictatorship beholden to extreme factions.  Netanyahu supporters argue that he won the election  and is now entitled to govern.  While that is true, an election win does not give the winning party the right to change the ground rules and emasculate the judiciary.  Even if there is room for discussion about adjusting the balance of power in Israel between the different branches of government, that type of change is one that must be undertaken carefully, with the input of wide range of stakeholders and not simply instituted by someone facing an array of ongoing criminal proceedings.

A Bit of Travelling

On a completely different note, we recently managed to visit a few places in the south of Israel that were very noteworthy.

Yatir Winery

Driving down to Eilat, we stopped  near Arad at the Yatir winery.  Yatir produces some  of Israel's most acclaimed wines, including its flagship Yatir Forest, a delicious but costly blend that has won prizes at wine competitions around the world.   We were able to join a tasting group and sample four different wines while enjoying a nice platter of cheese and  vegetables.  (No Forest was poured...)  The wines were all quite good, the presenters were engaging and friendly and it was a worthwhile stop.

Yatir is near Arad - about 2 1/2 hours away from Eilat.  Don't worry - we had a designated driver.  We finished up  at the winery and got back into the car to continue our drive south.

Eilat

We don't go to Eilat very often.  As you  may know, it is pretty much the southern most point in Israel.  During the summer, temperatures can reach 40-45C (104F-113F) but it is a "dry heat."  Situated on the Red Sea (Probably the "Reed Sea" originally), Eilat offers some terrific snorkeling, scuba diving, and all kinds of other beach activities.  It is all situated in  a small area with a range of over priced hotels.  Eilat is packed in April during Passover and throughout the summer.  It is also packed over the high holyday season in September and  October.  

Eilat, Israel

While we were there, it was only about 22-25C (72-77F) and the water was a bit chilly.  I still checked it out - (since, after all, I am used to Ontario lake water) but not for very long.  Eilat is a popular destination of Israelis for shopping since it is a "tax-free zone" for many products.  So, for example, you can get a cell phone in Eilat for about 18% less than it would cost in other parts of the country.  Many other items are also considerably cheaper in Eilat.

Timna Park

After spending some time in Eilat, we drove over to Timna Park - which is an Israeli National Park located about 20 minutes from Eilat.  Timna is one of the regions largest copper mines - a site at which copper was mined from the 5th century BCE and possibly by King Solomon in the 10th Century BCE.  The views were breathtaking and  since it was March, the temperature was very moderate.  We even had a bit of a breeze.  

Visitors can drive from site to site within the park - and then do a mixture of hiking and driving.  Alternatively, visitors can hike the whole park on a four to five hour trail.  I would imagine that in July or August the heat would be unbearable but in March it was an amazing experience and one that I would highly recommend.  We climbed up to the top of one of the mountains, saw some amazing ancient mining sites, some beautiful views and a variety of interesting birds.  


  
  

There are a variety of landmark rock formations, all with the reddish colour due to the presence of copper in the rocks and surroundings.  The park is very picturesque.  At the end, there is a Visitors Centre, where visitors can make their own multi layered sand art in small bottles - or buy larger - pre-made bottles.  We probably wound up spending about 3-4 hours at the park overall.

Beit Govrin-Maresha National Park

Our last stop was Beit Govrin -Maresha National park, which is about 1 1/2 hours from Ra'anana.

The area, known as the "land of a thousand caves" features a large network of the "Maresha Caves" which were inhabited by the Phoenicians.  There are ancient olive presses, columbarium caves for raising pigeons, burial sites, Roman baths, an amphitheatre and many other fascinating sites.

There are too many photos to include since we visited several different caves - including a limestone quarry, a water reservoir and some of the columbarium caves.  Some caves were extremely deep and winding.  They were well lit - and cavernously large.  But if you are afraid of depths - this could be a bit frightening.

I thought it would be interesting to include some comments about these places to get away from the strict political news and commentary and cover some other topics.

Now it is back to Pesach preparation.  As anyone who observes Pesach knows, getting everything cleaned up, changing over the whole kitchen, preparing food for large groups of guests and planning the Seder  itself is all quite a bit of work.  So there is no shortage of things to do over the next 10 days or so, while watching Israeli political news and also working regular hours....

I will probably provide one more update just before Pesach - and perhaps by then we will have some better ideas about where things are heading politically.