Cease Fire, Hostage Release Deal and Other Updates

It has been a while since my last post - I think about three months.  So for all of you who have been waiting for a monthly (or weekly) blog - sorry about that.  I am just two busy.  But much has happened since October 2024.  At different times, I had thoughts of writing a blog - and some ideas - but I just couldn't get around to it.  As it is - I have a very packed schedule today - but I thought I would see how much I could put together in one hour or maybe two.

Hostage Deal/ Cease Fire

As you might have guessed, the first thing I have to write about is the apparent deal that Israel has reached with Hamas - as negotiated with Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. and others.  In case the Canadian readers are wondering - Canada does not seem to have played any role in these negotiations other than cheering on Hamas, backing anti-Israel U.N. resolutions etc.,

There is nobody on the Israeli side that I have heard that will say this is a "good" deal.  It is not. The apparent deal is staged over a 42 day period - by which time a total of 34 Israelis will have been released - though we don't know for sure how many of them are (or will be) alive.  Rumours are that the number is 23 living hostages.  In exchange, Israel will release some 3,000 Hamas terrorists, many of whom are serving jail sentences, will allow a dramatic increase in aid coming into Gaza and will pull back troops from many areas of Gaza - and eventually leave Gaza altogether.

Although the deal is highly problematic, it seems highly unlikely that Israel will get a better deal any time soon - and continued fighting will doom the 34 hostages - as well as hundreds of soldiers who will die in further fighting.  It is unclear that this continued fighting will wind up getting Israel a better deal.

If we have a chance to save the lives of these 34 hostages - and maybe more - there are still 98 being held, even though we do not know how many are still alive - then the State of Israel has an obligation to its citizens to save as many as possible.  Especially since we do  not have an alternate plan to either save them or end the war.

There are many different stories emerging about the negotiations - and it is really hard to say what is true and what is not.  Different sources from inside Israel and from the U.S. have indicated that a deal was almost completed in May 2024 but Netanyahu's government added additional conditions at the last  minute.  Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, both ministers in Bibi's government, have taken credit for "preventing" the deal at that time - which effectively means - taking credit for minimal gains in Gaza, the deaths of many Israeli soldiers and the deaths of many of the hostages who may have been released.

At the same time, Israel's accomplishments in Lebanon and Syria - and even Iran - were all significant and seem to have put Israel in a much better position geopolitically.  According to other reports, it is Hamas that was refusing a deal between June and  now - and has only now agreed to a similar deal because it has been weakened considerably.

I cannot give any authoritative answer to these questions. However, if there is any chance of saving these lives after so much time in captivity, I think it is the time is right for us to do so.

On the cynical side - many reports suggest that it was Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who broke the logjam this week by essentially reading Bibi the riot act and telling him that the war had to end now. It certainly seems to me that earlier reports are correct - that Bibi did not want to end the war early - at Trump's request - because it would be viewed as helping the Democrats with the election.  Of course there is no proof of that - but the timing does speak for itself in my view.  

The interesting point here is that Bibi and his far right cohorts - Smotrich and Ben-Gvir - were convinced that Trump would more or less let them do whatever they wanted when he became President - and "finish off" Hamas (whatever that might mean).  However, instead, Trump apparently told them, through his envoy, that the war had to end now - and this would be the end of the war.  Trump has indicated that he wants to move ahead with peace talks with Saudi Arabia - which means some kind of permanent arrangement for the Palestinians.  This is all terrifying to Ben Gvir and Smotrich who were hoping to build settlements in Gaza  and are adamantly insisting that they will be able to continue the war after the 42 day cease fire period.

All of this being said, there are still reports that the deal has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet or signed by both sides yet, even though it is supposed to take effect on Sunday at Noon (Israel time).  I believe that the deal will proceed but I guess anything can happen between now and then as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir try to stop the deal. (As a late postscript - Bibi has now apparently  delayed the start of the deal to Monday instead of Sunday - with no apparent reason - other than - so that the release of prisoners coincides with the inauguration of Mr. Trump....)

The Future of Bibi's Government

Two of Bibi's coalition partners, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, are threatening to leave the government if this hostage/cease fire deal goes ahead.  However, it is important to listen to them closely.  Ben-Gvir says he will officially leave the government but he will not vote against it or bring it down and will still support it from the outside.  Smotrich says he will leave the government if the army does not return to Gaza to fight some more - after the 42 day deal is complete.  Effectively, neither of these two coalition partners are promising to bring down the government now - they are only making idle threats at this point for political reasons.

Ultimately, the far-right parties have no interest in an election any time soon.  They are in key positions of power - controlling the police, the budget, and many other ministries.  They could risk all of that if an election were to be held, which is not supposed to take place until October 2026, unless the government falls before then.  I don't believe that they are about to cause the government to fall.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are also making a great deal of noise - and are continuing to demand a blanket exemption from the army.  It seems increasingly unlikely that this government will be able to get that bill passed - with growing opposition from Bibi's own party,  internally.  However, I don't believe that the ultra-Orthodox are interested in an election at this time - since they are enjoying a golden era of massive funding for their yeshivas, rabbinical institutions and other programs - which could face huge cuts after an election.

There are other two other major sources of tension.  Some of the far right extremists in Bibi's coalition -  Simcha Rotman and Yariv Levin - would like to bring back the "judicial reform" plan to the centre of the agenda.  Their logic is that the war is almost "over" and they should use this opportunity, while this far-right government is still in power - to take over the judiciary and implement changes that will favour their agenda.  This is creating tension within the Likud party itself - as even some of the Likud members cannot stomach these proposed changes.  It is hard to say what will happen here though I would imagine that some of the changes will go ahead and some will be "delayed."

The other source of tension is Bibi's criminal trial which may now proceed at a faster pace if the cease fire deal is implemented. I am not going to get into that too much at this point - other than to mention that he has had a few days of "examination-in-chief" - which means giving evidence that he and his lawyers have tailored for his benefit. Included in this testimony, Bibi gave evidence that he signs "all kinds of paperwork everyday and often has no idea what he is signing."  In fact, he testified that even today - he still does not understand some of the key deals that he signed (including deals  that allegedly favoured Bezeq - to the tune of hundreds of millions of shequels - in exchange for favourable publicity).

Suffice it to say that Bibi's cross-examination on all of this - if it ever occurs - should be fascinating - especially for lawyers....who greatly enjoy watching these types of proceedings.  From where I sit - it seems hard to imagine that Bibi will go ahead with the cross-examinations - rather than cut some sort of deal before they occur.  Given that his starting point - is "I had no idea what I was signing" - and that is normally evidence that might be adduced in a cross-examination not an examination in chief, it can only get worse in a cross-examination.  I have no idea where this will all end up - but I have predicted all along - and continue to maintain  - that this case will never go to a verdict.  Either a plea bargain deal will be reached at some point - or Bibi's coalition partners will succeed in somehow legislating an end to the trial.  I think the former is more likely but that remains to be seen.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, it has been incredibly difficult to get to Israel since October 7, 2023, with most airlines, including all of the major U.S. airlines and most of the European airlines, cancelling their service to Israel.  Only El Al and a few other Israeli airlines have continued to fly and earn record profits.

With the announcement of the pending deal, Lufthansa has just announced that it plans to resume flights very shortly.  I imagine many other airlines will follow suit.

An Air Canada representative told me that Air Canada was set to resume flights on April 1, 2025, assuming that this deal goes ahead and remains in place.

All of that is great news for those looking to fly to Israel.  Hopefully tourists will start to come back - and hopefully all of these guests that want to come for our family wedding will be able to get here easily and safely.

I am still planning to return on my next flight through Rome but perhaps my next flight back to Israel will be on an Air Canada direct flight - if they begin earlier than April.

Yemen and Iran

We had to get up at about 2:30 a.m. two nights ago to run to our "safe room" because of a missile alert.  Apparently the Houthis had fired some ballistic missiles at Israel from Yemen.  The Houthis have always said that they will stop firing missiles when the war with Hamas ends - but I do not know if Israel will agree to stop taking any action against these Yemeni terrorists.

Israel is also pushing for approval from the incoming Trump administration to conduct a joint operation and take out the Iranian nuclear program.  Certainly, it seems that Israel would prefer a regime change and an opportunity to try and work with a new Iranian regime and build peace between the two countries.  Israel is still hoping that this will be the outcome in Lebanon and in Syria with the destruction of much of Hezbollah.   It also seems that Trump would prefer to avoid a military confrontation with Iran.   Netanyahu has always indicated that it is the centrepiece of his government's program - to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This war has made that objective even more pressing.  

Nevertheless, it seems to me that Trump will try to use diplomatic means rather than military to deal with Iran and Israel will not be able to do anything alone.  This all remains to be seen.

Eurovision

For the past few years - Israel has used its reality TV singing contest - "the Next Star" to select Israel's choice for the annual Eurovision contest.  The show is now down to five contestants.  Unlike some years, there is no clear favourite and it should be an interesting finish next week (or the week after).  A very interesting story is that one of the favourites is an Israeli Arab Christian - named Valeri Hamati. She is extraordinarily talented though not "head and shoulders" above the field. It is particularly fascinating because some people have very strong views about having a Christian Arab represent Israel on the world stage at an international singing contest.  She almost lost in the last round but made it through to the final five.  I think that she would be a great contestant though I am not sure that she will win - and if she doesn't  - I would  not necessarily blame it on her background.  I would say that it is a close field.  If she was clearly above  the other contestants - it would have been really interesting to see.  But her last performance was less than earth-shattering and at least two of the other contestants delivered excellent presentations.  We will know soon enough.

Movies

I am trying to do my best to catch up on all of the Oscar nominated movies before the Oscars.  Of course, the list of nominations is not out yet - so we can only speculate.  But I have seen three movies that are almost certain to be on the list.  Anora, Wicked and, most recently "A Real Pain."

I watched A Real Pain this week.  I thought it was really well done.  It is the story of two first cousins who join up with a tour of Poland and its concentration camps. There are many themes that really resonated with me (as someone who has ancestors who were killed in these camps).  The movie covers a variety of themes - including the manner in which a tour guide should lead this type of group (we have a family member who is a tour guide as you may know), the effect on people of visiting the death camps, the interaction with Polish civilians, and issues of depression and mental illness.  I know it probably sounds like a real downer from that description but I would strongly recommend it.

I am not going to discuss the others for now - I have to leave some material for future blogs, though I really enjoyed Wicked and would have loved to go to one of the "sing-along" performances of it.

Sports

Not related to Israel at all, since sports events are not really followed here nearly as much as in North America - other than major soccer events - like the  World Cup etc., but nevertheless I have to add just a couple of comments.

Since I grew up (since the age of 12 anyways), closest to Buffalo, I have always been a Buffalo Bills' fan.  As you might know, Buffalo played in the Super Bowl four years  in a row - and  has the distinct honour of being able to say that it lost all four times.

But here we are - with the Bills playing this Sunday - still having a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.  They are playing a very tough opponent - the Baltimore Ravens - but I will be watching the game starting at 1:30 a.m.  on Sunday night.

I doubt I would actually want to go the game in person and sit for 3 hours in -15C weather - even if I were in Toronto and could get to Buffalo.  It  is much more comfortable to fire up the barbecue in 21C weather and watch in optimal conditions.  But I am hoping for the best.

I might also stay up and watch the NCAA football final on Monday night - but I don't have a particular horse in that race - other than to cheer for Ohio State on behalf of my family members who live in Columbus.

Conclusion

At this point, my conclusion has to be that I am hoping for the return of all of the hostages - and that they will be able to get the support they need to return to their lives. They will need medical, psychological, emotional and all kinds of other support after this devastating experience but we are hoping for the best for them.  Israel will also have to endure a large number of funerals as the bodies of many dead hostages are likely to be returned.  This will be very traumatic.

I am also hoping for the safety of our soldiers - who are generally recruited civilians from the Israeli population called to serve their country. To date, a total of 840 Israeli soldiers have been killed including 405 in combat operations after the start of the war.

Of course I would also like to see an end to this conflict but we will require a much more significant change. There cannot really be an end to the conflict unless the Palestinians have leadership that is committed to a non-violent long-term solution to the conflict.  If Hamas remains in power - and that seems to be the case with this current deal - it is hard to imagine that we will see any kind of long term peace any time soon.  But maybe with big changes in Lebanon and Syria - there is a glimmer of hope that we will see some major changes in the region.  If changes do occur - and are attributable to this war - that may well be viewed as a long term gain from the war - despite the terrible cost that it exacted from Israelis and Palestinians.

Wishing everyone peace and the best of health.

Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.

Israeli Military Response in Yemen, Olympics and Other Updates July 2024

It is not often that I write blogs so closely together but sometimes there are so many things going on that I feel the urge to put together a few in a row in rapid succession.  This often happens just before or during Israeli elections or when there are some very unusual, challenging or different events taking place.  So whether or not you managed to read my blog from Friday July 19, 2024, I have put this one together to cover 6 or 7 items that I wanted to write about.  In a way, this might be viewed as an extension of the last blog but, quite simply, there are so many things going on here that I felt I just had to put this one together.  Of course it helps that today is Sunday - and I do not really have to work too hard on my normal business today (which is looking quite hectic for the coming week, thankfully).  So here goes - I have divided it into a bunch of headings and I hope you will find it interesting.

1. The Israeli Counter-Attack on Yemen

As you probably read, Israel launched a counter attack against the Houthis in Yemen yesterday.  Israel attacked the port town of Hodeidah, Yemen, which is apparently used as one of the main supply areas for the delivery of weapons from Iran to the Houthi forces.  Interestingly, Hodeidah had a large Jewish population at one time, with members of the Jewish community very active in trade, commerce, crafts and other artisanal efforts.  As with most of the rest of the Yemenite Jewish community, the Jews of Hodeidah left Yemen as part of Operation Magic Carpet in 1948-49 and immigrated to Israel.  

The targets hit by Israeli forces included oil fields and power stations.  Israel used fighter jets that flew on a 1700 km mission (each way) to carry out the counter attacks.  The attacks came after Yemen claimed responsibility for its drone attack against Tel-Aviv on Thursday night that killed one Israeli and injured 8 others.  Since October 7, 2024, the Houthis of Yemen have also been launching numerous missile attacks against Eilat and other parts of Israel, attacking Israeli ships and other ships bound for Israel - and taking other hostile actions against Israel.  The Houthis are armed, trained and supported by Iran and have been used as one of the proxies of Iran since October 7, 2023 to attack Israel without the attacks coming directly from Iran other than on one occasion.  The Houthis have reported that 3 people were killed and many others injured in these Israeli counterattacks.

The Houthis, the Iranians and various other groups are now vowing further attacks against Israel in response to this counterattack - so it seems reasonably likely that things will continue to escalate between Israel and Yemen and sooner or later between Israel and Iran - which is the main source and force behind just about all of the fronts that Israel is currently facing in the current war.

I just saw an interview with a Tel Aviv resident who was asleep on his balcony one building over from the drone attack in Tel-Aviv.  Debris from the drone crashed  through his makeshift roof and destroyed one of the two sofas he had on the balcony.  He was sleeping on a sofa that was connected to the other sofa that was destroyed.  He was in remarkably good spirits for someone who had been just a few feet away from likely death.  When asked about this, he said "I am especially thankful that the debris didn't destroy my barbecue.  That would have been a real disaster."  

I don't mean to make light of the situation.  One person was killed by this drone attack and 8 others were injured.  But sometimes, a sense of humour is the way people deal with very stressful situations.

2. The Olympics

As you know the Olympic games open this week - on Friday.  Some events start before the official opening. The Israeli men's soccer team will be playing its opening game against Mali on Wednesday.  That is very exciting since it is only the second time  in Israel's history that its soccer team has qualified and will be participating in the Olympic games.  In the first round, Israel will also play Paraguay and Japan.  They will need to come up with some major upsets to get out of this group and advance to the next round.

But the big story in Israel - is the security concerns.  Israeli athletes in a wide range of sports have been receiving death threats, mock funeral notices and subjected to all kinds of other intimidation tactics.  

The athletes all seem resolved to press ahead, represent Israel and put their trust in the security arrangements that are being made to protect them.  But these threats are very frightening and I can imagine that it must be quite difficult to have that additional layer of worry - while preparing for the biggest sports challenge of one's life.

3. Adidas

In a related note, as you might have read, Adidas chose this occasion to roll out a new advertising campaign for a retro shoe - its 1972 version of one of its sneakers.  Hmm.... Adidas chose to use Bella Hadid for its advertising campaign.  Hadid has been a fierce defender of Palestinians and Hamas since the October 7, 2023 attacks.  And as you might recall, 1972 is the year in which Palestinian terrorists attacked Israeli athletes and murdered 11 athletes and coaches.  So when you string all of this together, this was quite obviously a pro-terrorism, anti-Israel campaign by Adidas to commemorate, in a positive way, the massacre of Israeli athletes.  Completely disgusting.  After receiving all kinds of complaints (Not only from Israelis and Jews), Adidas has apparently "suspended" this offensive campaign.  Adidas has claimed that it "didn't make the connection..."  I will leave it to intelligent readers to draw their own conclusions.

4. Ultra-Religious Enlistment    

As you might recall, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that Israeli Haredim (ultra-religious) are no longer entitled to an exemption from the army and must now be recruited like everyone else.  Apparently, today is the first day that thousands of ultra-religious 18 year-olds began receiving conscription orders.  It remains to  be seen whether they will actually report for duty and if so, how many, but there is a sense that the landscape on this issue is starting to change. We may soon seen large numbers of Haredim in the Israeli army.

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu

Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to fly to the U.S. this week and address a joint session of Congress. He is also supposed to meet with President Biden and apparently he will also meet with former President Trump.  The meeting with Biden is contingent of course on whether Biden is healthy enough to meet Netanyahu and whether Netanyahu can be assured that Biden is no longer contagious. Netanyahu is not particularly interested in picking up a case of Covid - even though thousands of Israeli soldiers are risking their lives as we speak in much more dangerous ways.

Netanyahu is, of course, looking to bolster U.S. assistance in the war with Gaza as well as all of the other fronts that Israel is currently facing - including Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Syrians, the Iranians, the Iraqis and other potential threats.  Netanyahu is certainly looking for assurances that the U.S. will continue to supply much needed weaponry as well as diplomatic support.

For the U.S., the current administration is quite interested in bringing the war to an end and is likely to push Netanyahu to agree to a deal.  Apparently, the parties are fairly close to a deal though there are a number of issues that have not yet been resolved.  One issue relates to the Gaza-Egypt border - and what assurances will be in place to keep Hamas from being resupplied with weapons through this border.  Israel would like to retain some level of control over that border which it now controls.

A second concern is that Hamas has been insisting on the right to send armed forces to reestablish control over northern Gaza.  Israel has not been prepared to agree to this condition, which would lead to further hostilities very shortly.

There is some concern that Netanyahu will be using the trip to try to pressure Biden and campaign implicitly (if not explicitly) for Trump, just as he did while Obama was President. It is a calculated gamble by Netanyahu since there is always the possibility that things could turn around for the Democrats and he will have alienated an administration that he would have to work with.  Moreover, it is not even clear that Trump will be as supportive as expected, if Trump does win.  J.D. Vance has espoused some very isolationist views and is certainly unclear that Trump will be as great for Israel as many assume.

Finally, it hasn't escaped anyone in Israel's attention that Prime Minister Netanyahu's son, Yair, will be celebrating his 33rd birthday on Friday July 26, 2024.  Netanyahu will of course stick around after speaking at Congress to help his son celebrate.  It is unclear what form the celebrations will take or whether they will be paid for by the State of Israel. No one seems to know what Yair is even doing in the U.S. but he has requested a diplomatic passport and full 24 hour security detail.  I'm not about to speculate on what Yair has been up to - (other than sending out obnoxious twitter feeds) but I know that his father really enjoys fine wines, Cuban cigars and high end meals.  So it will probably be a pretty nice celebration, wherever it takes place.

6. Flying to Israel

As you may have seen, Air Canada announced that it would now cancel all flights through November 2024 at least between Canada and Tel-Aviv.  El Al stopped flying directly a while ago.  So if you are planning a trip between Toronto and Tel-Aviv, you can either fly through the US and connect with one of the El Al routes - or you can travel through Europe.  El Al flights are generally heavily booked and very expensive.

For my next flight, I am planning to fly Aegean via Greece and the pick up an Air Canada flight.  We will see how that goes.  I haven't tried that route yet.

That's all for now.  As usual, hoping for a deal that leads to the safe return of all of our hostages, the safety of our soldiers, some type of lasting peace deal for the whole region - and best of health for everyone otherwise.

July 2024 Israel Update

We are into the summer months - where it is, of course, very hot here in Israel.  It has been 9 months since Hamas launched its massive terrorist operation and massacre in Israel - and the war is still continuing on several fronts.  So, in my normal blog style, I am writing a few comments about how  things are seen here, where things might be headed - and some other remarks that come to mind.  I'll add in a bit of sports and other comments for fun.

The War

I think in wartime, it is very hard to get any really accurate news.  So my comments are really limited to what I gather from a variety of sources including Israeli news (Ynet Hebrew, the Jerusalem Post, the Times of Israel, Haaretz, Channels 11, 12 and 13 (we don't watch Israeli channel 14 - which is like Fox news but but with less truth and even more extremism).  I also try to read articles in the New York Times, CNN, the Canadian newspapers - and sometimes, for a totally different perspective (though not that often) Al Jazeera.

The war with Hamas in Gaza is continuing on.  Some reports seem to be indicating that the Israeli army is close to determining that it has defeated most of the Hamas armed brigades and that it can only continue with small scale operations.  At the same time, there are still somewhere in the range  of 120 hostages in Gaza, though we do not not how many are still alive - and the main leaders of Hamas including Yihyeh Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh are still alive. I believe that the army planned to conclude this operation in a much shorter time period.  

Things have been slow partially because Israeli has gone out of its way to minimize civilian casualties and partially because the army has also made efforts to minimize Israeli military casualties.  On the Israeli side, 679 soldiers have been killed since October 7, 2023, of whom 323 have been killed in fighting since October 27, 2023.  The official Israeli government site lists a further 4,000 soldiers as having been wounded.

According to Hamas sources, estimates of Palestinians killed are in the range of 35,000.  However, that does not differentiate between civilians and fighters.  Israel had estimated that Hamas had about 30,000 fighters divided into 5 divisions before October 7, 2023.  Israeli military reports indicate that quite a large number of these fighters have been killed or wounded in fighting.  Many others have been captured.  Some Israeli reports had put the percentages at 50-60% of the Palestinian  casualties.  We also know that Hamas tends to exaggerate its numbers.  So there is a strong likelihood that the number of military casualties on the Palestinian side is in the the range of 15,000-20,000, perhaps even more - and the total number of civilian casualties in closer to the range of 10,000.  We do not know the exact numbers but the Israeli troops are not out there fighting and killing civilians.  They are fighting armed military units and it is very likely that this would account for most of the casualties on the Palestinian side.

The point is that the allegations of "genocide" being thrown around against Israel are clearly ridiculous by any sane definition or measure.  It actually degrades the meaning of the word "genocide" to try and suggest that Israel's war against Gaza - falls into the category of situations around the world where civilians are massacred en masse, deliberately - or to even begin to compare this situation to Nazi Germany and the Holocaust or to the slaughter of Armenians by the Turks, the Rwandan genocide or other such atrocities.

There are many reports that suggest that a deal to end the Gaza war is being negotiated but I am not holding my breath at this point, for several reasons.

First of all, at this point, Hamas is looking for a deal where they will return about 22 live hostages (out of about 120) and still stay in power.  Although much of Gaza will have been devasted, Hamas will sell that as a big "win" and will try to rebuild its forces, restock its ammunition and get ready for another round.  This would be a major defeat for Israel - and would leave us with another ticking time bomb.  

It is unclear that Netanyahu is even interested in this type of deal, even though the U.S. is pushing for it, and it is unclear that he can muster political support for it.  Many Israelis, even those who do not support Netanyahu would like to see  a more decisive defeat of Hamas which seems attainable, according to Israeli military sources.  

At the same time, Hamas does not seem that eager for a deal either.  They figure that they have picked up major international support for this war - especially from the despicable leadership of countries like Ireland, Spain and Norway - and they do not really care about civilian casualties.  They would prefer to be able to consolidate power, rebuild and restock and argue that they could not be defeated by Israel - even if that means thousands of additional Palestinian casualties.

Concurrently, Israel is fighting an active war with Hezbollah up north, Iran's proxy forces.   Every day, Israel has been subjected to barrages of rocket attacks, missile attacks and rpgs.  Thousands of Israelis have evacuated their homes and the border towns are all ghost towns - other than military personnel.  Soldiers and civilians are being killed - and shockingly, Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu, previously self-described as "Mr. Security" has done very little to counter all of this.

Many in Israel are calling for a major war in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah and try to move the Hezbollah forces out of the border area in Lebanon.  It is hard to say what will happen but this seems very likely.  There is a possibility that some kind of deal with Hamas will also bring about a deal with Hezbollah.  But a Hezbollah deal seem even less likely than a Hamas deal since Israel would need guarantees that the Hezbollah forces would move back from the border and refrain from attacking Israel. There is such a deal in place from 2016 but Hezbollah has simply refused to honour it.  Any such deal would need enforcement provisions, "teeth" and perhaps real international guarantors.  I suppose anything can happen, but it seems that a major war with Lebanon is more likely than a deal of this type.

Of course the other major threat is an all out war with Iran.  Israeli historian Benny Morris (who at one time was a far left historian and then later moved to the right) has called for Israel to launch an all out war against Iran as the only way of defeating the threat from Hezbollah, Hamas and other enemies and to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat against Israel.  While there is some logic to this given that this whole war has been a proxy war with Iran, I hardly think that Israel, with its 10 million people - is in a position to start launching all out wars on the whole middle east with hundreds of millions of enemies. 

Perhaps Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will win the U.S. election - and will actively support an all out war against Iran.  Or at least the threat of one.  I'm not sure what to say about this - other than it would really throw the whole region into something massive and unpredictable.  As if things are not already difficult enough here. Contrary to Netanyahu's expectations, even if Trump wins, I think it is far from predictable that Trump would support the kinds of activities that Netanyahu has in mind.  

Ultimately the difficulty we have in Israel is that we have a leader, Netanyahu, whose decisions are necessarily coloured by his own political and legal predicament.  If the war ends, his coalition might fall.  His trial might continue.  A national inquiry might be launched.   He could face all kinds of personal and political challenges - that he views as worse than continuing the war.  He could even face new and additional criminal charges.  Yes, this is a cynical view but it is compelling.

Under Netanyahu, who was supposed to provide security, deterrence and a strong military, Israel has never been weaker, even though he has his dream "fully right wing" coalition in place.  The war with Hamas has taken much longer than expected, the hostages have not been released, the leaders of Hamas are still in place and a large number of soldiers have been killed or injured.  

In the north, thousands of Israelis are still displaced, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel at will, and Israel has done very little to respond.  The economy in Israel has faced all kinds of challenges - and relatively few airlines are flying here.  There is simply no way to assess this situation as favourable for Netanyahu unless one is completely blinded by support for him and his party.

Other Israeli Politics

Despite all of the above, Netanyahu's coalition can stay in power until October 2026 unless one of the parties leaves the coalition.  Two of the parties are ultra-orthodox and would have nowhere to go politically.  One of the parties is made up of far-right extremists and they would also have nowhere else to go politically.  So as long as things don't change  dramatically, his government is fairly "safe" for now, contrary to whatever his political opponents or other  commentators might say.

The one potential way that the government could collapse is if his own party collapses internally.  This possibility has been increasing but is still relatively low.

Just to review a few possible issues - Netanyahu's coalition partners have demanded a few things and some members of his own party - have been reluctant to support them.

One major demand of the ultra-orthodox is a blanket military exemption for all "ultra-orthodox" males up to the age of 25.  There were different proposed pieces of legislation in place - and the Israeli supreme Court had issued an ultimatum that this needed to be addressed by June 1, 2024.  When the date came and went and there was still no legislation, the Supreme Court ordered the conscription of the ultra-orthodox.

As a result, the ultra-orthodox have been demanding that the coalition pass a bill to protect them from this Supreme Court decision. (Referred to by opponents as the "Draft Evasion Bill").  Netanyahu is willing to do so. After all, he will do anything to stay in power, seemingly.  But there are more and more rumblings in his party - Likud members who have begun to come out and say that they will not support  this type of bill.  This could lead to a no-confidence motion or it could lead to Netanyahu withdrawing the bill -  and the ultra-orthodox might decide to pull the plug. All in all, I think the latter option is unlikely since any deal they might get would be worse after an election and they know that.

I have to point out that, at the same time, the IDF has indicated that it needs more recruits in the short and long term.  The ultra-orthodox answer is to extend the service time for  existing conscripts and reserve soldiers.  This type of bill has been floated.  But once again - there is quite a bit of resistance to this from other Likud MKs in the governing coalition.

The ultra-orthodox have also been trying to pass another bill - to provide for the centralized hiring of some 600 ultra-orthodox rabbis by the State and to give them the authority to take over religious control of towns and cities across Israel.  This bill has been referred to by opponents as the "Rabbi corruption law."  Once again, a number of Likud members have come forward and stated that they will not support this bill.  So this is another potential area where things could explode.

The far right coalition members have different ideas. They would like annex the west bank, build settlements in Gaza, continue the war - and generally avoid any kind of deal with the Palestinians.  They are threatening to bolt the government if Netanyahu actually reaches a deal with Hamas.  A deal could be saved by the support of other non-coalition Knesset members but this would cause the government to collapse.

Many Israelis listened attentively as the U.S. Supreme Court granted wide reaching immunity to President Trump for various alleged criminal conduct.  Before this whole war broke out with Hamas, Israel had been gripped in a national fight over proposed judicial reform by Netanyahu and his political partners.  The proposed reforms were intended, ultimately, to do exactly what Trump succeeded in doing in the U.S.  Stack the court with a bunch of right wing idealogues who would do whatever he wanted - and then grant  him wide ranging immunity from any criminal charges.  Netanyahu, like Trump, figured that this would be his "get of jail free" card.  So far, Netanyahu has not yet succeeded and the war has probably set him back quite a bit politically in his efforts to get this done.  Netanyahu is, however, looking enviously at Mr. Trump - who probably had quite the celebration  when the Supreme Court immunity decision  came out.

One more comment on Israeli politics.  The Labour Party and the Meretz Party have banded together to form one left wing bloc - though they still have to formally approve the merger.  The party is being led by Yair Golan.  Golan is a  former Israeli general who saved many Israelis on October 7, 2024 when he rushed into action and became a "one-man army" driving around, fighting Hamas terrorists and rescuing Israelis.  He is forceful, opinionated and resolute.  On the one hand, he is of course, a supporter of a strong IDF and not afraid to use IDF forces where appropriate.  On the other hand, he is very much in favour of finding a long term resolution with the Palestinians that is workable - and of protecting democracy in Israel from the threats of those that have been in power currently.  I am not thrilled that they have decided to call the party "the Democrats."  I would have suggested something more Israeli, with less baggage and less Americanized.  At the same time - I think they are likely to do quite well in a national election - and that much of their expected gains will come at the expense of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.  But we may not know until 2026.

Sports

Israelis are huge soccer fans, as you know, so the big news here has been the FIFA Euro 2024 Soccer Tournament. Everyone is watching even though Israelis don't really have a horse in the race.  The games are on at a reasonable time and the soccer is at the highest level in the world (just about).  Once the Euro tournament is over, Israelis will look forward to watching the Israeli national team compete in the men's Olympic soccer tournament for only the second time in Israel's history. Israel will play Mali, Paraguay and Japan.  That should be very exciting. Maybe Israel can come up with a win  or two - and advance to the next round.

My preferred sport as you know is ice hockey.  I stayed up some very late nights to watch the Stanley Cup finals and cheer for the only remaining Canadian team. It was a tough loss for the Edmonton Oilers - but the fact that the Oilers were able to come back from a 3-0 deficit and get to a game 7 was really incredible.  

So with no more ice hockey, I have turned my attention to watching some of the "Coppa America" - the North/South America FIFA soccer tournament.   As you might know, the Canadian national team has advanced to the  semi-finals and will play Argentina on Tuesday night.  That is the furthest any Canadian team has ever advanced in a top level soccer tournament.  While it is expected that Canada will get pummeled by Argentina - anything can happen in one game.  Maybe Canada can pull out a big surprise and get to a final against the winner of Uruguay-Columbia.

I can't say that I have watched very much baseball as the Blue Jays have been atrocious and baseball does  not attract very much viewership at all here.  I'm still happy to go to a game or two when I am in Toronto - and to support the kosher food provider there - that expanded the menu this year.  But it is really more about spending time with friends, enjoying the weather etc., than watching the underperforming Jays play.

Other Comments - Worldwide Protests and Anti-Semitism

I couldn't let this blog conclude without a few other comments on this issue.  As you many know, pro-Hamas "encampments" have been put up all over the U.S. and Canada - and many other places around the world.  

In Toronto, a bunch of hoodlums - (let's not mince words - we can also use "terrorism supporters") invaded the University of Toronto and put up a tent encampment.   They set up their own "security forces" and  controlled entry to the area. They chanted antisemitic slogans, harassed students and others and occupied a chunk of U of T property.  And of course demanded that U of T "divest" from anything to do with Israel.  In what sane universe is this permissible?  U of T should have called in the police immediately, to remove and/or arrest all involved.  This should not  have been allowed to last even one day. I think the University of Alberta took the proper approach when it cleared out a similar encampment immediately. 

But instead, the encampment remained in place for approximately two months.  U of T went to court to get an injunction and the Ontario Superior Court issued a 61 page decision last week - ordering the protesters to dismantle the  encampment and leave  - which they did.  The decision was striking.  The Judge spent the majority of the decision making all kinds of unnecessary comments and  findings that had nothing to do with the real issues - and were simply bad precedents.  In the decision, Justice Koehnen of the Ontario Superior Court, bent over backwards to find that the actions of the protestors were not "antisemitic" or violent  and seems to even suggest that their demands were justified.  Thankfully, he also concluded that the University of Toronto had no legal obligation to negotiate with this band of thugs and that there is no legal right to simply build an encampment and take over a property that belongs to someone else.  From my perspective, this probably should have been a three page decision with those conclusions.

But Israel continues to face these kinds of challenges all around the world from Pro-Hamas/Pro-Palestinian demonstrators who are calling for the destruction of Israel.  Israeli PR efforts have fallen short (other than some major crusaders like Noa Tishby - who has been phenomenal).  This is partially attributable to the disarray of the current Israeli government and its inability to appoint or designate proper and  competent people to lead these efforts.

There are probably other things that I need to cover, but I will have to leave some topics for next time.  My plans to be back in Toronto  were delayed for a bit due to personal reasons but I am hoping to be back in mid-July.  Wishing everyone the best of health - and wishing for peaceful times for all of us, Israel and all of its neighbours (as well as other locations around the world), the release of all of our hostages and the safety of our soldiers.  We are thinking of all of the families of victims, casualties and losses since October 7, 2023 and hoping for better times. 

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah 2024 - Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day and other comments

On this day of Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah (Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day), there are many things to write about.  I was planning to limit this blog to a focus on the Holocaust.  But in light of all of the events taking place in Israel, I had to add some additional comments and discussion. 

Possible Ceasefire Deal?

A few minutes ago, the Israeli press began reporting that Hamas has advised negotiators that it has "accepted" the latest Qatari-Egyptian-U.S. proposal for a three-staged cease fire.  It is unclear whether this will actually go ahead.  But here are, among other things, a few events that took place today.  First of all, Hamas announced earlier that it was leaving negotiations and that it could not trust the Egyptians to broker a deal.  Israel announced that it was asking 100,000-200,000 civilians in Rafiah, Gaza to leave the area so that it could conduct operations in that area (the last remaining stronghold for Hamas military divisions).  

It is noteworthy that Israel did not announce a major call up of its reserves in preparation for this telegraphed incursion.  Nevertheless, hours later, Hamas announced "officially" that it was accepting the cease fire terms.

I do not have the detailed document here - but among other things - this is what is apparently included:

1. 33 kidnapped live Israelis would be returned over a period of 40 days - mainly including women, the elderly and some injured captives. In exchange, Israel would release approximately 100 convicted Hamas murderers and 600 other Hamas prisoners.

2. After the 40 days, Hamas would release additional hostages including soldiers and other civilians in exchange for further releases of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails.  

3.  There is a third stage of agreeing to the rehabilitation of Gaza, the full exchange of other prisoners and remains of dead civilians and soldiers and an extended five year period of non-hostilities.

Reports are that Israel has not agreed to the third stage and that it has only agreed to the second stage conditionally.  Israel has maintained that it has the right to resume operations until its war aims are met.  However, Hamas has announced that it is accepting the deal on the basis of U.S. guarantees that steps 2 and 3 will take place - even without formal Israeli acquiescence.   

This "deal" will create quite a bit of division in Israel.  The deal will leave Hamas in power and in place to rebuild and try to carry out another similar attack.  It will allow Hamas and its leader Yehia Sinwar to claim a form of victory (or stalemate at least).  And it will not bolster any hopes for having a non-Hamas - peace oriented Palestinian leadership in control of Gaza.  In other words, the people of Gaza will continue to be stuck under  the thumb of a brutal Hamas military dictatorship - even if many of them actually chose or supported that type of rule in Gaza.

On the other hand, if Israel does not find a way to release as many hostages as possible immediately, it will be risking the lives of all of these people - and failing in its most basic obligation to its citizenry to protect Israelis and to redeem them when they are taken hostage or held captive somewhere.

I have listened to many different sides of this debate from an Israeli perspective. I am torn.  I am very concerned that we will continue to face the same ongoing cycle of violence from Hamas - and this deal will risk the lives of many Israelis in the future - who will face attacks from a large number of released murderers.

But, on balance, I believe that we must release anyone who is still alive at this point.  If Israel refuses and proceeds with an invasion of Rafiah - that will involve the potential loss of hundreds of our soldiers.  We may not get any of the hostages back.  We are unlikely to be able to fully destroy Hamas.  We will wind up with thousands of Palestinian casualties, many  of whom will be innocent civilians.  And perhaps, most significantly, we will face massive world pressure, especially from the U.S., the EU  and other places - which may have a devastating cost for Israel in terms of world support, economic pressure and general isolation.

It is quite clear to me that Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a deal now - and certainly not this one.  If the deal goes ahead, his government may well face a day of reckoning.  Israel may wind up with an election sooner than anticipated.  However, even though Netanyahu himself may not survive an election, the Israeli public could shift even further to the right as a result of all of the events since October 7th, 2023.  

It is also worth noting that there is no deal with Hezbollah in the north yet - and tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes are still waiting to return.  Many Israeli commentators have indicated that this will only take place after a major war with Hezbollah and Lebanon on Israel's northern border.  I am hopeful that if there is a deal with Hamas, Hezbollah will also agree to some sort of deal - but so far, that is unclear.

As a postscript - while I write this blog - some Israeli officials are saying that Hamas has accepted a "new deal" put together by Qatar and Egypt that Israel has not yet even seen.  Other announcements are that it was the same deal that Israel approved but the U.S. added additional assurances to Hamas that the war would not continue after the 40 days.  I can't really tell you at this point what will happen - and there seems to be quite a mix of opinion from Israeli newscasters and commentators - some of whom think there will be a deal - and many who do not.  At least not at this time.

Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day

Yom  Hashoah v'Hagvurah is one of the most poignant and difficult days on the Israeli calendar.  Israelis attend at remembrance ceremonies across the country on the evening before.  All restaurants and stores are closed from about 6 p.m.  All Israeli television stations and radio stations are dedicated to Holocaust programming.  There are documentaries, interviews, movies and other programs on all night.  

We attended the ceremony in Ra'anana, which focused on the Jews of Kovel, Ukraine this year. Kovel was a town that had 20,000 Jews before World War II, the vast majority of whom were murdered by the Nazis between August and October 1941.  Many were held in the city's large synagogue while knowing that they were about to be murdered.  Some of them wrote their personal stories and prayers on the walls of the synagogue in their own blood, hours before being murdered.  This was obviously a gut wrenching and difficult ceremony to attend.

Afterwards, we watched different Holocaust programming on TV including the National  Remembrance Ceremony from Jerusalem and some other programs featuring the testimony of survivors along with interviews with their children and grandchildren.

One of the most  moving pieces that I watched was an interview with former Israeli Chief Justice Aharon Barak.  Barak is now 87. When he was 5 years old, he miraculously escaped the Ghetto by being hidden in a basket of soldiers' uniforms, along with his mother.  He was hidden by a nearby Lithuanian farmer and his family for a short period of time - and then had to leave.  Another farmer family, Jonas Mozuraitis and his wife Ona, took him and his mother (as well as a few others) and kept them all hidden for almost three years.  The farmer built a double wall with a four foot space in between.  Barak, his mother and the others, were hidden between the walls for entire days and allowed to come out only at night - where they would then spend time with the farmer's family including his children.  Barak eventually came to Israel, studied law, became the Dean at the Hebrew University Law School and eventually the Chief Justice of the Israeli Supreme Court.  The story is nothing short of incredible.

Years later, Barak was asked to meet with Lithuanian officials to provide advice on putting together a constitution - he accepted the invitation on condition that he could meet with the family that had hid him.  Only the farmer's children were still alive.  Barak had a question for them.  "Why did you save us and risk your  lives? he asked.  "If the Nazis had discovered us they would have killed you."  One of the children responded to Barak.  "I don't understand your question.  For us it wasn't a question.  We were religious Catholics.  We believe in our obligation to our fellow human beings, especially those in need.  We saw people who needed help and we knew we had to help  We believe you would do the same."  Barak said the answer has kept him awake every night.  "Would I have the courage and the moral clarity to do the same thing?" He has asked himself repeatedly.  One of  Barak's family members said - the answer is "absolutely."  But Barak was crying while giving this explanation.

Barak, as you might recall, is the Israeli representative on the International Criminal Court which has been hearing the case brought by South Africa alleging that Israel has been carrying out a genocide.  The case is simply outrageous and Barak spoke a bit about it (to the extent that he was able to do so).  Israeli soldiers have been fighting back against  Hamas in a war that Hamas declared on October 7th.  While there have been a large number of civilian Palestinian casualties, the Israeli army has taken extraordinary steps to minimize those casualties.  Israel is fighting an enemy that has set up bases in hospitals, mosques and dense residential areas.  Hamas has transported its fighters in UNRWA vehicles and red cross ambulances.  Sometimes they wear press badges.  Hamas has fired missiles and then hidden underground in tunnels while exposing the civilian population to Israeli responses to the missile fire in those very same areas.

On the other hand, the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas were deliberate attacks involving  massacres of civilians - including torture, burning victims alive, rape and all kinds of other atrocities.  The notion that Israel would be charged with genocide for attacking Hamas in response to these crimes against humanity is ludicrous.

All of this context was explored this year during Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day by a wide range of speakers - who also sounded warning bells about the massive worldwide increase in antisemitisms and anti-Semitic attacks.  A special focus has been on U.S. university campuses and some of the completely unacceptable responses by these universities to the targeting of Jewish students on campuses.  Columbia University has, of course, been singled out as one of the worst offenders though the situation across the U.S. is quite grim, especially as viewed through the eyes of Jewish Israelis.  

Of course Canada is not much better.  The University of Toronto is continuing to allow a pro-Hamas encampment on its property - which is actively trying to prevent Jews from entering the area.  Is this 2024?  

Anti-Jewish attacks, rallies and other public antisemitic acts and comments, can all remind us, anytime, but especially on Holocaust Remembrance Day, how things that start like this can quickly descend into much much worse scenarios.

Lighter Note

On a lighter note (compared to everything that is going on here), I stayed up on Saturday night to watch the Maple Leafs blow yet another 7 game series and bow out of the playoffs in the  first round - even with a team loaded with highly paid superstars.  Once again, a tremendous, yet perhaps predictable  disappointment for a Toronto Maple Leafs hockey fan.  At least I saved some money on playoff tickets - though I was looking forward to being back in Toronto for Round 3 or Round 4 - even at an insane cost of $750 per ticket for my lowly purple seats if the Leafs had made it to the finals.  

Here in Israel, the Yes Cable system was showing Leafs' playoff games on Sports 5+ - channel 59 - at 3 a.m.  But wouldn't you know it - they showed games 1 to 6 but not game 7. So I had to stream the CBC using a VPN.  That wound up working out fine.  Unfortunately, no one wanted to stay up and watch with me - so I had to keep from falling asleep on my own.  With overtime, I think the game ended around 6 a.m. on Sunday morning.

My other light note - is that Israel is getting a few days of  unseasonal rain.  The weather forecaster called it the "return of winter" - even though the temperature has not dipped much below 20C.  Some winter...(says the Canadian...)

I will try to write more in the coming days as we have Yom Hazikaron (Israel Remembrance Day for  Soldiers and Victims of Terror), Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day), the Eurovision Festival, and the pending invasion of Rafiah, Gaza or a possible cease fire deal.  Lots to discuss.

I wish everyone the best of health - and  peace.

 

Blog from Israel - March 2024

I have had a look and it has been about three months since  I have written a blog.  So I thought it was time for an update.  I plan to cover a range of topics - not necessarily with significant depth - but there are so many things going on here that I thought it would be worthwhile covering a few of them.  Things are quite busy at work (my day job) so it is hard to devote a great deal of time to an unpaid hobby - as important as my updates might be.  I will try to include some headings so you can skip to whatever you might find interesting....

1. Getting to and from Israel

I thought I would start with this one - since some of you might be planning or thinking about planning trips to Israel in the coming months.  Since October, 2023, "commuting" has become extremely challenging.  As you might know, Air Canada suspended its service to Israel on October 7, 2023 as did many other airlines.  Only El Al continued its service to Israel uninterrupted as did a handful of other airlines - including Emirates Airlines.  (Though has you know, El Al had cancelled its direct Toronto service more than a year ago in any case).

Air Canada has announced that it will be resuming service effective April 8, 2024, but there is still no end to the war in sight - so I guess what I would say is "I'll believe it when I see it."  

Over the years, as you may know, I have been doing my best to fly Air Canada as often as I can.  The Aeroplan program is better than the available alternatives and Air Canada has been the only airline with direct service since El Al cancelled its direct service to Toronto.

So since October, I have tried to find ways to get to Israel from Toronto by combining Air Canada and El Al.  I have flown through Rome, Amsterdam and London with these combinations.  These were challenging connections to say the least, especially if you have luggage.  Since there is no sharing agreement between airlines, you have to land, exit the airport, collect your baggage and then check in again.  I would say that the Rome airport was reasonably efficient - especially for Canadian passport holders - as they have a quick line for holders of passports from certain countries, including the EU, U.S. and Canada.  Amsterdam was a disaster.  The immigration line alone there took more than an hour.  

In London, the exit was almost as quick as Rome - but then I had to take a train - (way, way, way down) to switch terminals.  The whole process  took forever.

Considering everything, I was prepared to make the best of it and arrange a few more flights via Rome.  The problem is that the connection is great leaving Israel going back to Toronto.  But from Toronto - you have to plan on spending a day in Rome.  

Okay - things could be worse.  For one of my flights, I locked up my baggage and spent a day in Rome.  I went for lunch at a Kosher Tunisian restaurant -  (which was interesting - but I probably should have gone with the Kosher Italian food instead....) and walked around the city for several hours.  I managed to visit the Trevi Fountain, several other sites and, ultimately, a great gelato place.

But more recently, all of the airlines have upped their fares considerably.  To fly via Rome this time, the fares were over $3,000 Canadian for economy class, with a lengthy delay.   I couldn't find any other reasonable alternatives.

So I wound up trying Air France via Paris - with a 1.5 hour connection in Paris.  It sounded questionably optimistic but it was less than 1/2 the price of other alternatives.  The flight itself from Toronto to Paris on Air France was fine.  Reasonably comfortable seats, decent entertainment system and fairly good service.  We arrived in Paris a bit early - but... sat on the tarmac for almost an hour and  missed the connection.  So me and seven other Israelis - my "lonsmen" (actually there were no women in the group so it was really only lonsmen) were put on an alternate flight - the next day.  We were given vouchers for a hotel near the airport, vouchers for food at the hotel and at the airport - and instructions for a free shuttle to and from the hotel.  

I suppose things could be worse than an overnight in Paris. After resting for a while in the hotel (a medium end airport Moxy Hotel), I shared an Uber ride with some of my fellow Israelis and headed off to the Eiffel Tower. From there, we walked over to the Left Bank area, taking in the sights and sounds of Paris along the way.  It was quite an inconvenient stopover but we made the best of it.  I have applied for the EU compensation (which is supposed to be 600 Euros for the missed connection, at the fault of the airline) but let's see if that arrives.

On the way back to Toronto - I am travelling through Amsterdam with one of my family members and we have an overnight there.  The alternative is paying 3-4 times as much.  So we will see how that goes.  

For now, all of this has meant fewer  Aeroplan points, travelling without any benefits - and very inconvenient connections.  There are El Al flights through New York and other cities in the U.S., though the prices have also increased dramatically.  I am also not a big fan of transiting through the U.S. if I an avoid it - due to the incredibly long and inefficient security (especially compared  to most of the big European airports).  As well, the El Al loyalty program is terrible comparatively.  

All in all, these are small problems compared to challenges that Israel is facing with an ongoing war. Our soldiers are in constant danger including our standing army and our reserve soldiers.  The civilian population is also under threat of terrorist attacks, missile attacks, and other threats.  The Northern border is in a state of all out war - or close to it.  And of course all of the  areas surrounding Gaza have been devastated.  So my concerns about getting to and from Israel - are minor in comparison to everything else.  But for people considering coming here, I thought it might be worth writing about the options.

I have also seen available flights on Ethiopian Airways, Emirates/Air Dubai and Lot Polish.  Some of these flights can include total flying time of 30-40 hours with lengthy stopovers in different places - sometimes with two or three connections.

So I have joined the Air France loyalty program and used the opportunity to practice my French a bit.  "Un vin rouge s'il vous plait"....and "Un  autre vin rouge s'il vous plait...".  Merci.  Actually there was more - "un cognac s'il vous plait" - Air France is well stocked with beverage options.

2. The Government

The current Israeli government is facing a wide range of challenges and grappling with many different fault lines.   As you may know, it still has a 64-56 coalition majority. None of the coalition partners have anywhere else to go, ideologically, so I would be surprised if the government were to collapse any time soon notwithstanding the apparently vast unpopularity of the current leadership.

One of the most interesting issues - is the enlistment of the Ultra-Orthodox (the "Haredim").  A whole megillah could be written about this issue.  The short version is that the first Prime Minister of Israel, David Ben Gurion, agreed to a "compromise" with the ultra-religious community back in 1948 whereby a relatively small number of yeshiva students would be exempt from military service to be able to continue their religious studies full-time.

Over the years since 1948, through various coalition deals, the number of exempt ultra-orthodox has ballooned greatly -  to the point where the entire community of ultra-orthodox Jews have been granted exemptions from the army, provided that they study in yeshivahs.  

Various court challenges were brought by different groups - and the Israeli Supreme Court decided, on several instances, that these arrangements were not fair - since different classes of citizens were being treated differently.  The Court gave the government time to negotiate and enact a law to address the situation.  But the ultra-religious have been having none of it and have been demanding a blanket override law - a "notwithstanding clause" if you will - that exempts all of them permanently - even while their population is growing at a dramatic rate relative to the non-haredi population.

This current government is made up of close to 25% ultra-orthodox members - which demanded support for this exemption as a term of supporting Netanyahu.

Now the Supreme Court had given the government until April 1, 2024 to enact a law to address the situation.  While there have been negotiations - there is no law - and nothing close to a law.  So the Court has stated that effective April 1, 2024, the government will need to cease funding any yeshivas that are not sending their students to the army.

Needless to say the Haredim are promising full civil disobedience.

The ultra-religious parties are threatening to quit the government but they have nowhere to go.  No other party will give them a better deal.  Causing an election now is almost certainly a recipe for disaster for the ultra-religious (and perhaps for the rest of the extreme right wing).  So it seems like they are going to huff and puff quite a  bit - but it is hard to imagine that they will actually blow the house down (i.e. cause the government to fall).

Even so, this promises to be a fascinating issue to watch in the coming weeks.

3. The War

It is hard to know what is really going on with respect to the progress of the war.  There are reports across world wide media - and there are daily reports from the Israeli military spokesperson and various Israeli media outlets.

According to one report I read yesterday, that seemed reasonably reliable, Israeli intelligence had estimated that there were about 30,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters before the war.  Revised estimates seem to put the numbers closer to 40,000-45,000.

Israeli reports of dead, injured and captured Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters total between 25,000 and 30,000.  So Israel seems to believe that it has immobilized approximately 3/4 of the fighting forces that it was facing.  It seems that the majority of the remaining forces are in Rafiah -which is likely to be the final area of fighting - even as other fighting continues across Gaza.

Note that the Hamas "Health Ministry" claims that the number of dead Gazans is around 30,000.  That number includes civilians and fighters.  In other words, if Israel's numbers are correct and the number of dead fighters in the range of 20,000-25,000 - the number of dead civilians is actually quite low for a conflict of this scope and nature, which includes urban fighting with Hamas using its people as human shields.

That is not to say that anyone feels good about dead Gazan civilians.  But this is hardly a "genocide" or the intentional killing of civilians.  Gaza has a population of approximately two million.  If Israel was setting out to kill civilians intentionally, the numbers would be in the hundreds of thousands.  But Israel is not Russia - or Syria - or other constituent member countries of the UN that routinely carry out those types of massacres but only vote to sanction Israel.

While Israel is fighting a messy campaign in Gaza against a ruthless terrorist army, it is also fighting a major war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border with Lebanon.  This war has been escalating constantly since October 7, 2024.  As of today, Hezbollah and Lebanon have not decided to unleash a full scale war with Israel - which would involve sending thousands of rockets all over Israel.  In response, Israel would almost certainly flatten Beirut and many other Lebanese cities.  So far, Hezbollah has been fighting an aggressive war, launching RPGs and killing many Israelis - while shelling a range of northern Israeli cities.  In response, Israel has been shelling Hezbollah locations, launching air raids and attacking Hezbollah locations across Lebanon.  But it has not launched a full out attack on Beirut or turned the fighting into a "full-scale war."  But effectively, there is a very dangerous war going on in the north and thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes and cannot return.  

Cities like Kiryat Shemona are ghost towns - with only solders and various armored units in place.

Many Israelis believe that Israel will need to launch a full out war with Hezbollah before this all ends - to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border to where it should be (in line with UN resolutions).  The only other alternative is a negotiated arrangement with Hezbollah whereby Hezbollah would agree to move back from the border.  This does not seem to be close.

4. The Hostages

As you know, it is believed that Hamas is continuing to hold approximately 130 Israeli hostages.  Some reports have indicated that anywhere from 30 to 50 of these hostages have been reported dead.  But the family members of these hostages - and indeed - all Israelis - continue to hope that all of the hostages will return to Israel alive.

Some of the released hostages have provided detailed reports of the atrocities they faced while in Hamas captivity - including sexual violence  - which is still being denied in some circles of pro-Hamas supporters.  The New York Times, to its credit, has recently published extensive details of many of these atrocities.

Many Israelis are calling on the government to do everything it can to win the release of the hostages - even if that means making an unpalatable deal with Hamas.  But the Hamas demands are not just unreasonable - there are completely unacceptable - not just to Netanyahu but across most of the Israeli spectrum of opinion.  Hamas has stated quite publicly that it would like to take a "pause" and then do this again - on an even bigger scale.

So is is unclear what kind of deal, if any, can be made with Hamas.  In my view, Israel will need to launch a full scale operation in Rafiah and destroy the remaining Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighting forces.  There really aren't many other choices.

5.  World Response

At the outset of the war, President Biden visited Israel, sent aircraft carriers and demonstrated complete support for Israel and its response.  It is hard to imagine that any President (including the orange headed guy) would have demonstrated such significant support for Israel at a time of crisis.

But as the war has progressed, the relationship with the United States has unquestionably deteriorated.  For one thing, Biden has been losing support to Trump.  Some commentators have claimed that this is because  of the Israel-Gaza file.  I'm actually not convinced - since it is hard to imagine that the Republicans would be better for the pro-Gaza crowd.  But the perception seems to be that Biden needs to shore up his left, "progressive" wing - which means putting more distance between his government and the Israeli leadership.

President Biden now seems to be intent on "rewarding" the Palestinians for this massive terror operation by setting up a Palestinian State, perhaps even unilaterally.  While this is  not yet official U.S. policy - there is a definite sense that this is emerging as a U.S. option.

Granted, Prime Minister Netanyahu is part of a very extreme government that has no interest (and probably never has had any interest) in reaching any kind of agreement with any Palestinians.  So that does not make things easy for Biden or anyone else.

But the real narrative here  -  is that Israel is dealing with a very extreme, radical, movement, intent only on Israel's destruction, that launched an all out war on October 7, 2023.  There is no proposal by Hamas or by the Islamic Jihad for peace or anything close to it.  Historically, we know what must be done to fight these types of regimes. They must be defeated completely.  It doesn't seem to me that this war  will end until Yihyah Sinwar and his henchmen are caught, dead or alive and until Hamas effectively surrenders.

I believe that President Biden would get much more traction pushing for that result - even as a negotiating tactic.  If Hamas understands that the U.S. will support Israel in finishing off the Hamas military, whatever the cost - for Israel and for Gazan civilians - Hamas will lessen its demands dramatically and perhaps even surrender.  But failing to veto a UN resolution calling for an "immediate cease fire" is a completely unhelpful move.  Just imagine  supporting a call for a U.S. cease fire while the U.S. was fighting the Nazis.  

As for Canada - the situation is completely embarrassing, ridiculous and at all odds with any reasonable morally supportable position.  Perhaps that is where the Canadian leadership figures it will obtain its votes or perhaps they have simply shown their true colours.  But joining the company of Ireland, Turkey, Iceland and  other anti-Israel protagonists is just not a well thought out position for Canada - which may well face its own security challenges down the road as the numbers of extremist Muslims  in Canada continue to rise.  So far, Canada has seen a massive growth in anti-Semitic activity - which has included blockading bridges in Jewish neighbourhoods, demonstrating outside synagogues, attacking Jewish owned stores and businesses and a whole host of other activities.

Instead of unequivocally condemning these incidents - the Federal government has used some very questionable language and has exacerbated the situation.  For the Jewish community at least, it is quite clear that Canada is in drastic need of a change of leadership.

All of this aside, Israel drastically needs its own  change  of government though that is unlikely to happen any time soon.  Nevertheless, the response from this current Israeli government to the October 7th attacks by Hamas would have been pretty much the same from any Israeli government that might have been in power, in my view.  Israel needs to destroy the threat from Hamas, find a way to return the hostages, or as many of them  as possible - and only then move to considering a long term solution for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

6. The Holidays

On a lighter note (in some ways), Israel celebrated the holiday of Purim last week.  Unfortunately, I picked up a case of Covid while visiting the City of Lights - and had to skip my usual Megillah reading.  I usually read chapter 8 - and sometimes 9 and 10 here at our shul in Israel.  

We still received a few nice mishloach manot (Purim gift baskets) including one really interesting one.  Friends of ours gave us a "do-it-yourself" Tabouleh kit - with fresh vegetables from Israeli farms in the vicinity of Gaza.  It was quite a fun and thoughtful idea and we enjoyed putting it together.

I ate my share of hamentaschen, even  while under the weather.  There was definitely a subdued feel to Purim in Israel this year as I am sure there was in the Jewish community throughout the world.

It is  now time to start getting ready for Pesach though we still have a few weeks.  Enough time for a trip back to Toronto before the holiday and maybe a chance to get some  work done. 

I think that is about all I am going to cover for now.  I know there is lots more to say and hopefully I will have the chance to write another blog shortly.  

We are continuing to hope and pray for some good news here in Israel. We have lost so many of our soldiers - 598 as of the time of writing of this blog - and so many more have been injured (more than 3,100).  Since this is a people's army - that means that we all know someone who was injured or killed in the fighting.  We know of friends and neighbours and their children who are now stationed in Gaza or  on Israel's northern or eastern borders. And unfortunately, we know of people from our city, our synagogue, our children's schools and other places that have been killed or injured since October 7, 2023.

At this time, I think the best we can do is hope that the Israeli army can win a decisive victory or otherwise cause Hamas to surrender as soon as possible and we can then look to how to deal with the broader conflict with a long term view.

On a final note - I have to point out that Israeli clocks are officially moving ahead by one hour tonight - yes we are finally "springing ahead" - a few weeks after North America.  So as I finish off this blog - and perhaps watch a bit of the Leafs-Capitals game before going to sleep - it is with the unfortunate knowledge that I will be losing an hour of sleep tonight.

Shabbat Shalom and best regards from Israel.