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| Israel AG Baharav-Miara |
I had a look and noticed that I hadn't written a blog since mid-January. Is it because there is simply nothing going on Israel that is worth writing about? Well, I probably can't say that. So I guess I will either have to attribute it to laziness on my part - or an extremely high workload in my day job, coupled with all kinds of other things going on. I'll leave it for the readers to decide.
In case, I will try to cover a range of topics in a pot pourri style in no particular order, other than whatever might pop into my head.
Getting To and From Israel
I might as well start with this since I have still been flying back and forth - even though that is much more difficult (and expensive) than it used to be. As you may know, Air Canada is still not flying to Israel. The airline has set a restart date of June 8, 2025. I think it's fair to say that one cannot count on this date as "Torah mi'Sinai," to put it mildly, especially since Air Canada had previously set restart dates of April 1, May 1 and then June 1. There are probably many considerations including insurance, regional stability and yes, political considerations. I'll venture to say that if the Liberals win the election, Air Canada will be unlikely to start flying again to Israel any time soon. If the Conservatives win and Pollievre becomes the Prime Minister of Canada - I think there is a greater likelihood of Air Canada restarting its service at an earlier date. That is not, by the way, intended to be a comment one way or the other on whether Pollievre would be a good Prime Minister - it is simply my prediction of what would happen on this issue. But let's just stay that the resumption of Air Canada's direct service to Israel is still very much up in the air.
As you know, El Al ceased flying directly to Canada long before the war started in October 2023. As a result, there are currently no direct flights to Canada. So for people looking to travel back and forth between Toronto and Israel - there are a range of options - but none of them are great.
The "easiest" and "smoothest" option is to book on the El Al site or with El Al using an agent, and to take a connecting flight through somewhere in the U.S. El Al still has some code share arrangements with flights to Toronto, Montreal etc., However, these flights can easily sell for $3,000 or $4,000 or more - just for economy seats. Since the war began with the massive Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023, El Al has had a virtual monopoly on flights to Israel for extended periods of time. As a result, it has increased its prices dramatically, generated massive profits for itself, and cut favourable tax deals with the Israeli government.
I have not flown from the U.S. on El Al since October 7th, primarily because of the high prices. I also find it more convenient and more relaxing to transfer in many European cities rather than transferring in the U.S.
On the other hand, flying from Europe on any carrier that is not El Al can be very risky if you have to arrive in Israel for any specific event. You just do not know when one of these carriers might suspend its service in these uncertain times and El Al is the only airline that continues to fly back and forth to Israel no matter what. As I result, I have flown through Paris, Rome, London and Frankfurt all on El Al. None of these flights have been with a code share so I have had to retrieve my suitcase/s if I was flying with checked baggage and re-check in - which means that you have to allow at least 4-5 hours to this. If you fly without checked baggage, which I have done a few times, then I would say that 1-2 hours is sufficient.
I prefer transferring through Rome or Zurich if I have to do this. I find both airports to be reasonably user friendly and easy enough to navigate. London and Frankfurt involve quite a bit of walking and are more awkward to transfer through. Paris can also be quite challenging. Zurich is probably the easiest as the airport size seems quite manageable. The airport is efficiently run and the Star Alliance lounge is great (with a full whisky tasting bar included).
I have flown with Lot Polish airlines once or twice through Warsaw and I understand that is somewhat cheaper than many of the other options. If the connection is with El Al, that might be something that I would try. If it is all Lot Polish - I don't think there is any certainty that Lot will continue to fly at any given time. I have not flown Lot since well before October 7, 2023.
For my flight back to Israel just before Pesach (Passover), I am flying Air Canada to Athens and then El Al from Athens. On one leg of the flight, the connection is great - but the other way I think I have 8 hours or so at the Athens Airport.
So for those of you who might be looking at how best to fly to an upcoming wedding in late August / early September, those are my comments. Best to try to find a connecting flight with an El Al leg to Israel if you want to be assured that you will arrive in time for the festivities.
The War in Israel
As you know, Israel has been involved in a multi-front war since October 2023. Up until recently, we had a form of ceasefire with Hezbollah in the north and with Hamas in the southwest. After the completion of stage 1 of the ceasefire with Hamas, the negotiations fell apart and Israel and Hamas have resumed hostilities. It is unclear whether Israel is about to use massive force in Gaza in an effort to extract a surrender or whether Israel is hoping that the threat of the use of massive force will accomplish the same goal. I am really not sure. Israel has called up quite a large number of reservists and the army certainly seems poised for a major ramp-up in fighting if Hamas does not release the remaining hostages (approximately 59, of whom approximately 25 are believed to be alive). Of course, on a cynical note, as you might know, Israeli cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his far right party left the Israeli government in protest when Israel agreed to a cease-fire with Hamas. Ben-Gvir said he would only rejoin the government if the government fired the Attorney General, fired the head of the Shabak (Israel's secret service) and resumed the war in Gaza. Netanyahu needs Ben-Gvir's support to avoid a non-confidence motion - especially with an upcoming budget vote. So, the cynics among us have argued that the war was restarted just in time to get Ben-Gvir back into the government and ensure the continuity of the fragile government. I'll come back to politics shortly.
Early this morning, we were woken up by an alarm as a result of a missile fired by the Houthis in Yemen at Israel. Now as you know, the Houthis are thousands of miles away, have no direct border with Israel and no real basis for ongoing conflict with Israel, other than their stated intention to support their Palestinian cousins and portray themselves as champions of the Palestinian cause. As a result, they have been using Iran-supplied armaments to disrupt international shipping by attacking ships in the Red Sea (more than 145 commercial ships according to U.S. Defence Department - along with more than 170 attacks on U.S. military vessels). The Houthis have also fired more than 40 ballistic missiles at Israel including four this week (three of which caused us to have to go to our safe room and halted air traffic to Israel temporarily). All of the Houthi missiles this week were shot down by Israel and/or the U.S. On this front, the U.S. has shown a refreshing resolve to hit the Houthis with a full show of force in an effort to dismantle their arsenal. This is one of the benefits of the change of administration in the U.S. If the previous administration had been willing to show this type of resolve against the Houthis, that may have hastened the end to the war. (This is not global commentary about the current U.S. administration, just a comment about this particular issue).
We have also had to head to the safe room on one occasion as a result of a Hamas attack over the past week. It is unclear whether Hamas is holding back in an effort to negotiate a new deal, or whether its capabilities are more limited now. I think it is more likely that they still have the capabilities but are saving them for whatever reason.
I also note that the front with Iran has not yet started up again, though the U.S. appears to be making major threats of an attack on the Iranian nuclear sites if an agreement is not reached with Iran.
Overall, much like the airline situation, though these issues go hand in hand, there is a great deal of uncertainty over what is likely to happen. Hopefully, Israel can reach some kind of deal to release the remaining hostages and bring about some type of end of hostilities, even for a few years, with the various surrounding neighbours. Hard to be optimistic that this is likely to happen soon - especially with an Israeli government that now seems intent on conquering all of Gaza (and perhaps handing it over to Trump to build his "Riviera").
I don't know what this means for the people of Gaza - though I understand that Egypt has apparently told Trump that it would take 500,000 Gazans to live "temporarily" in the northern Sinai (on Israel's border). If the people of Gaza are still considered "refugees" by U.N. definitions, then it makes sense that they should be settled somewhere and no longer treated as refugees. I would suggest that all of those countries that have been most strident in their anti-Israel campaigns including Ireland, Spain, South Africa and others, should all agree to make a show of their benevolence and Palestinian support and absorb at least 200-300,000. It will be interesting to see if these countries remain as stridently anti-Israel after 3 or 4 years. Unfortunately, this also includes Canada - especially under the leadership of the current government. Given that Mark Carney (the current Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal party) has apparently pledged some $100 million in support for the Palestinians in Gaza (i.e. Hamas), it may not be surprising if the Liberals are also among those countries that would accept a few hundred thousand Gazan refugees. This would, of course, be a disaster for the Canadian Jewish community which has seen a massive rise in antisemitic attacks - on synagogues, schools, Jewish-owned stores and institutions etc., since October 7, 2023.
The only alternative to all of this that would make sense would be the kind of plan that the Allies imposed on Japan and Germany after World War II - governance of Gaza and the people of Gaza by leadership with a completely different mindset - intended to reeducate the population, demilitarize it and develop a population that can live alongside Israel. I'm not not saying that this is realistic or likely but it seems like the only alternative to a major population transfer. The other alternatives, including continued or ongoing Hamas rule, will simply lead to further cycles of fighting with Israel for the foreseeable future.
Israeli Politics
The Israeli political situation is at, perhaps, the lowest point that it has been at since the founding of the country in 1948. Prime Minister Netanyahu is leading a far-right government that, boosted by the election of Trump, seems intent on eviscerating all of the democratic institutions in Israel and centralizing as much power as possible in Netanyahu's hands.
As you know, Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of a criminal trial that is still ongoing. There is little reason to believe Netanyahu's supporters who claim that the case has "fallen apart" or is "all about nothing." Netanyahu is still facing very serious corruption charges. He has currently been giving his testimony in chief and will shortly be cross-examined (if there is no plea bargain before that starts).
It was a condition of his trial, while continuing to serve as Prime Minister, that he recuse himself from any involvement in issues that could affect his trial. But Prime Minister Netanyahu has long since abandoned any pretense of following those rules. His government is now actively engaged in a process to fire the current Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara and replace her with someone more sympathetic to Netanyahu. In Israel, the AG role is an independent position. Although appointed by the government in power, the AG ("Legal Advisor to the Government") is intended to act independently to ensure that the government acts in accordance with the law. It is obviously problematic if the government is actively trying to act contrary to the law in a wide range of situations - since the AG has a duty to restrain the government, uphold the rule of law and call out any infringements.
Of course Netanyahu and others on the far right, in Israel and the U.S., have called out these types of checks and balances as the operation of the "Deep State" - which in their world view means anyone who opposes what they seek to do. In fact, Netanyahu himself and his son Yair (living in Florida), both fired off a bunch of tweets on X this week - and posted on Instagram - arguing that the "Deep State" was running the country and trying to thwart Netanyahu from carrying out certain actions. According to Netanyahu and his supporters, since his party won the election, they were "democratically elected" and can therefore do anything they want.
But that is not really the way things are intended to work. Countries that operate on the basis of the rule of law have laws, rules and conventions in place that restrain certain governmental activity. Some actions of government officials can be challenged in the courts which act as an arbiter and are charged with upholding the rule of the law. This is not the "deep state" - it is rules that were put in place and agreed upon by the people and their representatives (often including right wing parties and politicians) as boundaries for acceptable conduct.
It is true that democracies can be fragile. As soon as leaders show a reluctance to abide by and honour the laws, rules and conventions that serve as the bullwork of the democracy, things can slide quickly into different forms of rule. We have witnessed this historically on many occasions.
One of the current issues that the Israel government was recently facing was the termination of the head of the Shabak (the Israeli secret service). One the one hand, the Shabak is one of the groups that apparently made significant errors leading up to the October 7 attacks. (We would know a lot more if we were able to have a full National, Independent Inquiry into these events - but so far Netanyahu has opposed and resisted any such inquiry). The head of the Shabak, Ronen Bar, has publicly acknowledged that his agency made serious mistakes and he has pledged to resign once this war is completed. So I am not really passing any judgment on whether or not Bar should continue to be the head of the Shabak.
However, Israeli news stations recently uncovered a major scandal where two of Netanyahu's closest advisors were being paid by agents of the Qatari government on an ongoing basis. Qatar is a hostile state to Israel with no diplomatic relations. So just as the Shabak, under Bar, opened a major investigation into this issue (now being called "Qatargate"), Netanyahu pulled out all the stops to hold urgent, emergency meetings and fire Ronen Bar. (Netanyahu gave an urgent political address last night trying to present his own version of the timeline - but it was quickly shown to have been riddled with holes).
Netanyahu's supporters say that since he is the Prime Minister, he can do anything he likes, including firing anyone he wants to fire. But there are procedures in place in Israel for this type of dismissal, that can involve a hearing, an oversight committee etc., as well as rules about conflicts of interest. So the Netanyahu government voted (with no dissenting voices) to dismiss Bar. But now a range of groups brought petitions to the Supreme Court of Israel arguing that the proper process (which Netanyahu had put into place himself years ago) for the dismissal the head of Shabak was not followed and there was also a violation of conflict of interest rules. The Court granted an injunction preventing Bar's dismissal until a full hearing can be conducted, which is expected in April. Netanyahu and his cabinet ministers all responded promptly that they would not follow the rulings of the Supreme Court. As you might imagine, an announcement by the Prime Minister and his cabinet that they will not abide by rulings of the Supreme Court is shocking, dangerous and threatening to the foundations of Israel as a democratic state that adheres to the rule of law.
Again, this is not a "deep state" issue. The Supreme Court does not have the power to say "we don't like this head of Shabak - pick another one" or "you must keep this person in power no matter what." But the Court does have the power to hear petitions that are brought that allege that legal processes in Israel were not followed and that laws were broken in the course of firing someone or appointing someone. In other words, there are some limits on what the Prime Minister and the current government can do (call them "checks and balances") and this is normal in a rule of law country. Netanyahu would like to eliminate any such checks and balances which is what his whole program of "legal revolution" has been about. That is why so many Israelis have taken to the streets in protest.
Once the government dismissed Ronen Bar, it turned its attention to the current AG, Baharav-Miara, who was, herself, originally appointed by Gideon Saar, a fairly right wing Likud member. Netanyahu and the ruling coalition are having all sorts of problems with the current AG because she seems intent on upholding the law, much to their dismay. This is a real problem for the current cast of characters. Netanyahu himself is in the throes of a criminal trial where he is facing prison time. He is supposed to be recusing himself from making decisions that could impact his trial - but he is not even making a pretense of doing that. He is intent on bringing back Ben-Gvir as the head of the police - and Ben-Gvir himself is a convicted criminal. He is also looking to make this new "Qatar-gate" scandal go away as quickly as possible.
So earlier today, the Likud government voted, with no dissenting voices, to dismiss the AG. There are more procedural hurdles in place for the dismissal of the AG and this cannot be done by a simple cabinet vote. None of these procedural hurdles have been followed so far. So you can be assured that there will be more petitions to the Supreme Court seeking to freeze the dismissal of the AG. And you can also be assured that Netanyahu will double down on his pledge not to abide by the Supreme Court's rulings.
For Netanyahu himself, the stakes are obvious. For one thing, he wanted to bring back Ben-Gvir to bolster the stability of his government. Ben Gvir's demands for rejoining included the resumption of the war in Gaza and the dismissal of the head of Shabak and the AG (and presumably anyone else who would raise obstacles to potential governmental action that may or may not be legal). Secondly, the dismissal of Bar allows Netanyahu to claim that he has fired or replaced almost all of the key people who were at the heads of different governmental institutions that were in place on October 7, 2023. (Though he remains in charge and was in charge on October 7, 2023). But most importantly, in my view - there is another key point. Netanyahu's cross-examination is coming up in his trial.
In his examination in chief, some of Netanyahu's key evidence was that he routinely signs all kinds of documents all the time, has no idea what he is signing and does not even understand many of the key documents that he signs. (These were all documents that relate to the serious criminal charges against Netanyahu). This was his evidence in chief. There is little doubt that the state's prosecution attorneys are salivating at their chance to cross-examine Netanyahu on this evidence. Netanyahu is, of course, known for his incredible attention to detail, his amazing memory and his high level of intelligence. It is hard to imagine that any of Netanyahu's evidence will be considered believable once his cross-examination is concluded.
This is a pressing reason for a change in AG. If Netanyahu and his cronies can install a friendlier AG - perhaps he can get a much better plea bargain deal - before he ever has to appear for cross-examination. Call that cynical if you will, but given the testimony in chief, I find it highly unlikely that Netanyahu is looking forward to his cross-examination. And if it does actually take place, it will undoubtedly be quite the judicial spectacle - entertaining, at times comedic, bombastic (on Netanyahu's part) and almost certainly - unwinnable for Netanyahu. Better to cut a deal with a friendly AG as soon as possible if only one can be installed - quickly.
As a result of this government's statements calling for refusing to follow rulings of the Supreme Court, several prominent Israelis, including the former Supreme Court head Aharon Barak, the current head of the Labour Party (Yair Golan) and others have openly ruminated about the dangers of a possible civil war. To me that seems extreme for sure and I would not even want to entertain that type of vocabulary - but we are in the midst of a very dangerous constitutional crisis. The long-term solution for Israel, ultimately, will need to be a constitution that spells out in detail, the limits of power for each branch of the government. (Israel does not currently have a written constitution in place).
U.S. - Israel Relations
For some countries, Canada included, President Trump has been a major and immediate threat. Declaring a trade war against one of the U.S.'s best friends and closest partners seems like an awfully strange strategy (unless you are working for the Russians) but I digress.
But for Israel, and the Jewish community, even though many Jewish Americans did not and do not support Trump, some of Trump's policies have been a breath of fresh air.
It is likely that it was Trump's arm-twisting of both sides that brought about the second hostage deal and cease-fire arrangement with Hamas. President Trump has made it clear that the Houthis will suffer serious consequences for their actions in attacking the U.S. and Israel. Trump's willingness to support Israel in a big way in the region seems to have acted as a deterrent to Hezbollah and to Iran.
It remains to be seen what will happen with Gaza. On the one hand, standing up for Israel unconditionally vis-a-vis Hamas seems much more likely to bring about a deal than the policies of the former administration. Although President Biden showed more support for Israel right after October 7th than any president in history, the support slid over time and was accompanied by threats of arms delays or bans towards the end of Biden's administration. This probably lead to the prolongation of the war. If the U.S. had continued with a policy of "all-in" support for Israel - this may have left Hamas feeling more isolated and may have brought about an earlier cease-fire deal.
It seems to me that many Israelis and Jews around the world are also quite happy to see actions that Trump has taken against Columbia University and other institutions. It is inconceivable that, under the guise of "freedom of expression," masked demonstrators were allowed to terrorize Jewish students and others on the campus of Columbia. People have a right to demonstrate and to freedom of expression. But that surely doesn't include masked, violent encampments that occupy university property, threaten other students and create an intolerant and threatening atmosphere on campus. I'm very sorry but I have little sympathy for foreign students who lose their visas or even their green cards and are deported for these kind of activities.
As Toronto faces massive pro-Hamas demonstrations marking "al-Quds Day" on March 23, 2025, this is one area where Toronto and its pro-Hamas Mayor Olivia Chow, would be much better off moving closer to a U.S. model - banning masked demonstrations, arresting those who advocate violence and taking appropriate steps to censure and stop anti-Semitic activity. Both York University and the University of Toronto have been hotbeds for this conduct. A Trump-like approach to York and U of T would make Toronto a much safer place for everyone. And kudos to the Mayor of Vaughan, Steven Del Duca, who recently thwarted these types of protests outside of a Thornhill synagogue by providing proper security and perimeter protection, thereby protecting the synagogue and its attendees.
All of this is not, as I mentioned earlier, a general statement in favour of the current U.S. President. For certain Israel-related issues, his policies have been better than those of his predecessor. But it is easy to imagine that Trump could turn on any particular Israeli leader just as easily as the U.S. flipped on the Ukraine. And in the long run, a U.S. realignment with Russia and away from the EU and Canada (and other democratic countries) would not be in Israel's interests if Israel hopes to remain, itself, a free and democratic country.
The disdain shown by Trump for the rule of law and the courts is a theme that is currently being echoed by Netanyahu here in Israel. As a lawyer and someone who greatly prioritizes the rule of law, I cannot possibly countenance governmental actions that weaken and detract from the rule of law whether they are here in Israel or in the U.S. In both countries, there are procedures in place for laws that need to be followed - and there are judicial constraints on the exercise of power. These constraints help ensure the paramountcy of the rule of law and we know what happens when that breaks down.
Weather Update
After arriving back here in early March, it seemed that winter was gone, that we had skipped spring and that we were right into summer temperatures of close to 30c. We enjoyed several days of those temperatures before getting another taste of "winter," which meant 15-20 C and heavy rain. Today we were back to sunny skies and had the chance to enjoy brunch at an outdoor restaurant listening to hundreds of birds, mostly green parrots, singing and squawking. We are probably close the end of the days of "moderate temperatures" and will soon need to have the AC going non-stop. No doubt that it will be quite hot at the end of August/ early September - but the good news is that it does sometimes cool down in the evenings in Jerusalem for those of you who will be visiting that time of year.
Sports
I would call this time of year a bit of a black hole for sports viewership - (as a hockey and NFL fan) where I don't have too much to get excited about. I enjoyed the "Four Nations Challenge" that the NHL put on in Mid-February - which was surprisingly competitive and energetic. I'm not really a huge basketball fan - so the different March tournaments don't really attract my interest.
Now I am awaiting the NHL playoffs though I am very concerned that the Toronto Maple Leafs may be escorted out the door by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round.
I am not that optimistic about baseball season and don't really have much hope for the Toronto Blue Jays who appear to be managed incompetently.
There is not much to watch here in the way of sports. Now I suppose all of this is good because it provides me with fewer distractions. Between political news (which is 24/7 in Israel), work and event planning, I have more than enough going on already. So I can happily do without the added distraction of compelling sporting events - at least for a couple of months.
There are many other topics to cover but I think I am done for now. Even though it is a Sunday, Sunday is regular work day in Israel. So I intend to use the time to try and catch up on all of my work.
Until the next blog, I wish everyone all best. As usual, I am always happy to discuss and debate these ideas with anyone who might like to have some fun.
