Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Another Election Update: Complete Craziness Here - and Other News

With less than one week to go for Prime Minister Netanyahu to form a  government, things are getting completely crazy here politically.  Netanyahu's chances of forming a government seem to be slipping away.  But not without a major struggle.  Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops to try to retain power.

It seems like he has a string of increasingly radical moves lined up - right up until the last minute next week when he will either succeed in forming a government with his final moves (whatever they might be) or one of the other two alternatives will win out - either a new replacement government or a fifth consecutive election.

Last week, Netanyahu started to see that his chances of forming a 61 seat coalition were looking grim.  He is trying to pull together two far right wing parties - Yamina and the Religious Zionist party and mix those parties with two ultra-Orthodox parties - and then have that whole package supported by the 5 seats of an Islamic Fundamentalist Arab party.  The Religious Zionist party has balked at the idea and has held a number of press conferences at which they have spewed anti-Arab rhetoric  and stated that they will not enter a government that is supported in any way, shape or form by any of the  Arab  parties.  Meanwhile, the Arab party, Ra'am, has naturally called on Bibi to reign in the rhetoric of his racist cohorts if he is really hoping to get  Ra'am support.

So Bibi came up with a new plan.  He decided he would call for a two track election system with a separate election for the position of Prime Minister  Obviously, this is an attempt to create a U.S. style President with separate executive powers and to  circumvent  Israel's current system.  As any constitutional student would realize, it doesn't mesh at all with a Parliamentary democracy.  It is a different governing system.  So, essentially, Bibi's position is - "if I can't win - we have to change the system so that I can."  One would have thought that this would be dismissed out  of hand, especially since it was tried and failed in Israel in the past.  But since Bibi only needs 61 votes to  get a proposal like this passed, he is pushing it as hard as he can.

Some of the actual changes that have been proposed are even more ridiculous.  The "Prime Minister" could be elected with only 40% of the vote.  He would then instantly have all of the powers of a sitting Prime Minister rather than an interim one - even if he could not cobble together 61 seats.  Further, under Bibi's plan (as presented by Aryeh Deri, the former fraud convict and current leader of the Ultra-Religious Shas party), the winning Prime Minister would instantly get 12 additional seats in the Knesset as a bonus for winning the 40%.  Taking everything into account, this is essentially a plan that one might see presented by Putin or Erdogan.  The problem is that Bibi only needs a bare majority to pass the plan and the issue is whether he can pay off or horse trade with enough members to get this proposal through.  So far, the leader of Yamina, Naftali Bennett, has said he would not support it but the possibility of Bennett changing his mind cannot be ruled out.

Seeing that his "direct election" plan did  not seem to be working out, Bibi upped the stakes.  Earlier today, he proposed that a Bibi loyalist, Ofir Akunis, be named to be the Justice Minister, a position that has been sitting vacant since the government collapsed (leading to the election).  Contrary to Parliamentary and cabinet procedure, he did not provide advance notice of intention to put forward a candidate.  Contrary to the current coalition deal with the Blue and White party, which is in place until a government is formed, he presented a Likud candidate instead of a Blue and White candidate (as required by the coalition deal).  And contrary to the Supreme Court's stated guidelines, he did not recuse himself from being involved in the appointment of a Justice Minister while he is in the midst of an ongoing trial.  

The Attorney General noted that this was an illegal nomination, an illegal vote and an illegal procedure.  Bibi effectively stated that he didn't care and demanded that a vote be held.  The vote was a tie which meant  that he could not proceed.  In lightning speed, the matter arrived at the Supreme Court  of Israel by the evening and will be heard  in greater detail tomorrow and perhaps even shown on live TV.  The Supreme Court does not want to wade into political decisions but Bibi's actions, by all counts, are a clear attack on the rule of law.  Not that he or his party are strangers to this type of attack.  After the last election, one of Bibi's henchmen, Yuli Edelstein, locked up the Knesset to avoid a vote which would have replaced the speaker of the house.  Even then, the Supreme Court was reluctant to interfere.  Some commentators have suggested that this is all part of a plan by Bibi to get the Supreme Court to rule against him so that he can run a populist campaign against the Supreme Court in the next election.  Does that sound familiar to anyone across the ocean? *Late Addendum - added at 1 p.m.  Israel time on April 28, 2021 - Netanyahu has now agreed to back off and allow Blue and White to continue to hold the Justice Minister position - his announcement came just three hours before the Supreme Court was scheduled to being the hearing.

Given the manner in which Bibi has been escalating his tactics, it is hard to predict what he  might try between now and May  4, 2021.  This week, he offered  to allow either Gideon Saar (leader of the New Hope Party and one of the most virulent anti-Bibi Knesset members) or Naftali Bennett (leader of Yamina) to go first in a two-year coalition deal.  His condition is that he would stay in the  Prime Minister's house and be called the "alternate Prime Minister" while some else  "officially" fills the role.  We don't know what else he has requested as part of these offers but his demands are bound to be significant.  Neither Bennett nor Saar have rejected the proposals outright but even if Bennett were to agree, Netanyahu could still be short of the 61 that he needs.

So all in all, it is fair to say that things are extremely volatile, unpredictable and, definitely, new and unique, even for Israeli politics.  That being said, it seems likely that things will go in one of three directions by May 4th.  If Bibi can come up with the right mix of promises, threats, payoffs, carrots and sticks, he might still form a government by the deadline.  I don't think we can rule it out yet.  It seems that he will need to convince Gideon  Saar or some of his New Hope party members to bend and join Netanyahu.  That would cause Bennett to join as well and would create a government.  But Saar has sworn up and down, over and  over, that  he wouldn't join Bibi.  So it will take quite a lot.  I think this is still in the 40% range, perhaps now a bit less.

On the other hand, Bennett, Saar and Lapid are actively negotiating to try and form an alternate "unity government" made  up of parties across the political spectrum.   They have many challenges, which is inevitable when one tries to combine such a disparate range of political philosophies.  From the far left, egalitarian, anti-nationalist Meretz party to the far right, extremely nationalist, religious Yamina party, held together by centrist Lapid of the Yesh Atid party.  And  this coalition might only have 57 seats unless they can recruit an Arab party or an ultra religious party.  It looks like a tall order to get to 61.  I'm still not convinced that the chance of this group forming a government is higher than 30 to 35%.  

And if you do the math, that leaves us with a 25-30% chance of another election, at least according to this prognosticator.  But we should know by May 4th or  shortly thereafter.  If it is to be a fifth election, it may be in August or September.  Perhaps by then, a greater number of Israelis living abroad will be  able to travel to Israel to participate in the vote.  For the last election, ballot stations were actually set up in the  Ben Gurion airport so that Israelis could arrive at the airport and vote before heading  off to a  quarantine.

Covid Update

As you probably know, things have been opening up everywhere here based on the use of a vaccination certificate system.  Concert venues, inside and  outside, restaurants, malls, sports events - everything is almost back to normal, for those with Green Certificates, at least.  But is it just a lull?  We are hearing of significant challenges now coming from the "Indian Variant" which may be impervious to the Pfizer  vaccine.  If a variant arrives in Israel that can  beat the vaccine, we may wind up heading back to square one - after a period of ostensible normalcy.  So far, Israel is still pushing ahead with plans to allow for international tourism (for vaccinated tourists only of  course), a resumption of the Birthright  Program and an expansion of flights, outbound and incoming.  But we really can't  say how long this "golden period" will actually last.  Hopefully, in Israel and the rest of the world, the vaccine will help turn things around in a lasting way.

Heat Wave and Upcoming  Holidays

As you might have seen - we reached temperatures of more than 40C last  week - more than 100F and it was only April.  Fortunately, things have cooled off somewhat and the weather is actually quite  nice now.  People are arranging their Lag B'Omer bonfires for Thursday night and planning their all night study sessions for the holiday of Shavuot which is 17 days after Lag Ba'Omer.  We are picking out our best Blintz and Cheesecake recipes and figuring out how we will best observe the Chag.  We may have to visit a winery or two between now and then to find some nice White or Rose wines that could best accompany our  anticipated dairy bonanza.

Board  Games

I don't mention it that  often  in this  blog - but as many of you might know, I have a hobby of collecting, teaching and playing a wide range of board games.  One of my future projects (hopefully sooner rather than later) is to design one myself.  These are complex strategy games - "Euro games" as they are often  called that include game categories such as worker  placement, territory control, engine building, and economic decision making.  They are rarely winner  take  all games but are won by the player who has amassed the highest point total.   Given that I have been here for such a long stint, I have found a few reliable partners - who are quickly becoming equally addicted.  Recently we have managed to play three fantastic games - Viticulture (which is all about developing and  running your  own winery), Brass Birmingham (an economic  game  set  in 19th century England) and Barrage (a  worker placement/economic game in which players build dams and try to control water  flow and develop energy).  These are all terrific games - so if anyone is looking for something fun to do when spending extra time at home - these games will all give your brain quite a workout.  Israel has a Facebook group called "Unbored  with Board Games" which has more than 10,000 members - who trade tips about different games, buy and  sell used games and arrange meet ups with each other.  So if you thought  board game playing was now a dead or non-existent past time - I think these numbers strongly suggest otherwise.  Board game playing is especially common among Shabbat observant families since most of these games can be played on a Saturday afternoon without violating any of the rules of Shabbat.  

That's about it for  now - waiting for the political fireworks here in Israel over the next  week or  so and wishing everyone the best of health!

 









Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Yom Hazikaron / Yom Haatzmaut 2021 - Commemoration and Celebration

The past couple of days have represented Israel's annual emotional roller coaster.  From the depths of sadness to the heights of joy as Israel commemorates Yom Hazikaron (The Day of Remembrance for  Soldiers and  victims of  terror attacks) on one day and then  celebrates Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day) the next day.

Yom Hazikaron is a very powerful day.  So many people in Israel have been touched by tragedy - the sorrow of having a family member  killed or seriously injured in the course of  serving in the military or the horror of having a family member,  friend or  other acquaintance  who was killed or seriously injured in a terror attack.  This is a small country - so the 23,928 fallen in a country of  only 9 million is a very large number.  

On Erev Yom Hazikaron, there are ceremonies held  across the country.  We normally attend the Ra'anana commemoration but due to Covid-19, spaces were limited  to advance ticket holders only and there was no space left. So we watched three different nationally televised commemorations.  These ceremonies included speeches from high ranking military personnel, politicians, families of the fallen and poets and writers.  Many of Israel's most  well known musical artists perform sombre songs at these events  and torches  of remembrance are lit in honour of the fallen, in each case  with a detailed story of a fallen soldier or victim of a terror attack.  There aren't many dry eyes watching these events.

On the day of Yom Hazikaron, which this year was yesterday April 13, 2021, there are ceremonies at the military cemeteries across the country.  There is a rule that no family of any fallen soldier will be alone on this day.   So soldiers who are currently serving in the army  are assigned to attend these ceremonies across the country to console and support the families.  Our family members have taken part in this  tradition in the past.  At 11 a.m., across Israel, there is a lengthy two minute siren.  Much like on Yom Hashoah, the whole country comes to a standstill.  Everyone  stops in their place and  stands silently.  Throughout the day, radio stations play remembrance themed  music.  TV stations show documentaries about the fallen solders, the victims of terror and the tragic  periods in Israel's history.

As the sun goes down, Yom Hazikaron ends and Israel pivots from  one of the saddest days of the year to one of  the happiest.  It is simply amazing  how  so many people are able to do this so fluidly - but  then again, I suppose that is part of life.  And that is the message of these two days - to take the unspeakably sad - together with the joy - and to see it all  as part  of the complex state that is Israel.

Tonight's official Yom Haatzmaut  celebration was reminiscent of some US 4th of July celebrations - fireworks, a military flyover, marching  bands - and of course some political speeches.  The initial musical performances were mostly by the Israel Military Band.  Some  were quite good.  In between, different prominent Israelis were called up to light torches in honour of Yom Haatzmaut.   Some  of these torch lighting  ceremonies were  particularly poignant. Two  Druze  medical staff  came up to light a torch on behalf of all of the medical workers who have worked so hard over the past  year  helping Israelis to fight Covid-19.   They also proudly represented Israel's Druze community.  Another torch was lit by a woman who had been attacked fiercely by her  husband last  year  and  had only survived due to the timely intervention of a neighbour.  Both women came  up to light a torch on behalf of victims of domestic violence  and to raise awareness of the issue.  Several others lit torches in between the various musical performances with the accompanying story of  each torch lighter. 

After the official national ceremony, different stations broadcast different celebrations.  We recorded two  of them and watched one  live.

One of the highlights of evening was the program run by Idan Raichel, one of Israel's most popular musical performers.  I have written about Raichel previously.  Last year, on Yom Haatzmaut, during the height of Covid-19, he and his band put on an outdoor, physically distanced concert with all of the musicians spread out in a park.  You can watch the 45 minute concert from last year here if the link still works.  We thought it was fantastic.

This Year, Raichel outdid himself.  He held a contest for soldiers from across Israel.  He asked them to send him recordings of themselves singing his songs.  He then picked a bunch of winners and decided to invite them to come join his nationally televised Yom Haatzmaut concert this year.  But to notify each of them - he drove to their bases, with one or two of his band members - and showed up to suprise each of them and invite them personally.  He also invited them to rehearse with him and his band.  He recorded these suprise meetings.  He visited one soldier at an outpost at Israel's southernmost border with Egypt.  He visited another up near the northernmost border.  And others in between.

At the Yom Haatzmaut  event, he showed all of these videos and then performed one song with each of the performers, a mixture of women and men, from different regions in Israel, different  backgrounds and different types of military roles.  It was really quite something.  The parents or other family members and friends of the soldiers were in attendance - and after each peformance Raichel asked them what they thought of the performance.  He also asked the guest performers to say a few words about the experience.  All of the singers and  their family members were simply overwhelmed.  

Ultimately, Raichel said he would pick one or more  - to work with to release an original song that the selected performer writes and performs, with Raichel's help.  Raichel himself was so supportive of all of these  soldiers, so interested  in their life stories, so self-deprecating and simply - throughout the evening  - someone who projected such a sense of decency, respect and love.  

Winner of Raichel Contest
In the end, he selected one of the soldiers, much to the disappointment of all of the others who were hoping to fulfill a dream.  The winner and his mother were ecstatic.  The whole event was  moving, emotional and musically fantastic.  

After this show, there will be other musical performances throughout the evening  on tv, on web sites, and live across the country.  In fact, in Ra'anana, one  of the performances, aimed at the younger crowd starts at 1:30 a.m.  I don't think we will be attending that one.  People will be hosting parties into the wee hours, setting off fireworks and  generally celebrating this 73rd birthday of the state in many different ways.

Tomorrow the annual national  bible contest will be televised -  for participants from Israel and across the world.  There will also be an air show, a rave party at Tel-Aviv's Yarkon park, street parties all day across the country and other festivities everywhere.  Israelis will head to the beaches  and the national parks in the expected mid-20s heat - and there will be barbecues everywhere (our place included).  The chick peas are soaking overnight for the homemade humus.

Being in Israel for these special days is really a great privilege - right up there with being here for the Jewish holydays - Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Sukkot and others.  There is a really powerful mix of remembrance, loss, determination and resolution - that imbues both Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah and Yom Hazikaron and then the contrasting happiness of celebrating Yom Haatzmaut.  This year there is a sense of cautious optimism that has added to the joy.  Even though Israel remains mired in political quicksand without a new government and facing the prospect of yet another election, there is a feeling that Covid-19 is being defeated.  

I hope that the rest of the world will soon feel this same level of optimism in the fight against Covid-19 everywhere.  Wishing everyone a Chag Sameach and the best of health.

 

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Yom Hashoah 2021

Today is Yom Hashoah  vHagvurah 2021 - the day of Remembrance of the Holocaust and Heroism.  This day is commemorated in Israel and by Jews and many others around the world to remember the 6 million of our people who were murdered by the Nazis and  their collaborators between 1939 and 1945.

Most years, I travel back to Toronto after Pesach and I am not in Israel for Yom Hashoah vHagvurah, which is only 5 days after Pesach ends.  But this year I have had the zchut (the privilege) to be here for this poignant and extremely important day.

Officially, Yom Hashoah began at sundown yesterday.  Perhaps as a starter with things to consider, someone sent me a video of a debate between Alan Dershowitz and the late Rabbi Meir Kahane.  It is interesting to watch, though Kahane was a purveyor of some extremely racist and repugnant views.  I'm not convinced that the way to defeat these folks is by giving them a big public stage.  Dershowitz did a decent job on some points, but fell quite short on many others.  Overall, I'm also not convinced that he  accomplished  his objective of "exposing and defeating" Kahane.  Instead, he probably gave him more publicity than he deserved.

I raise this because the Israeli Knesset has sworn in 6 member of the Religious Zionist party.  This collection of new Knesset members includes racists, xenophobes, homophobes, misogynists and generally extreme nationalist types.  Some of these  new  Knesset members have already spoken about proposing laws to make it harder  for  women to file complaints of sexual assault and harassment, limiting rights for  same  sex couples in Israel,  and legislation  aimed at  Israeli Arabs.  I'm not drawing parallels here but I am also not convinced that the best way to defeat these views is to given them platforms on an ongoing  basis.

In the evening  yesterday, we want to the Ra'anana commemoration at Yad  L'Banim (the City square, essentially).   This is an annual event.  Generally, the City of Ra'anana (like most cities across the country) honours  6 different  Holocaust survivors by telling their  life stories -  and then calling them up, usually with children or grandchildren, to light one of the 6 torches.   In between each group, there are sombre musical  performances.   There was also an interpretive dance performance this year.  Due to Covid, there was no event  last year.   This year's event was by advance registration only, for those with prove of vaccination only.  You had to show photo ID along with proof of vaccination to get in.  

These are powerful events, with lots  of tears.  Stories of people  who  lost their  entire  families but somehow made it to Israel and survived.  Horrifying  stories of harrowing  conditions, and cases where  these  tough individuals somehow eked out their survival.   Over the course of  the evening, a number of  poems were  read  (some  originally written in Yiddish, some in Hebrew) and we heard from a number  of speakers including  Ra'anana's mayor.  Special Yizkor prayers were recited in memory of those  who were killed including the El Maleh Rachamim prayer sung by Ra'anana's chief  Hazzan.  It was a powerful and difficult ceremony.

From  there, we went to a friend's house who had invited a member of a Holocaust survivor's family to come  and  share the  survivor's life story for a group of about  30  people.  

After that, it was back home to watch the national Holocaust  memorial  ceremony (we had recorded it) and several Holocaust themed  documentaries and programs.  The president of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, delivered a moving and thoughtful  speech.  Prime Minister Netanyahu also spoke and delivered what sounded like a campaign speech.   Most unfortunate for a Holocaust event.

I also attended a Toronto event, by Zoom, held by the  Law Society.  This was primarily about how to  fight hate speech, and Holocaust  denial by using various legal means.   It was an interesing and well attended event.

Today at 10 a.m., Israel blared a two minute siren across the country.   Everything stops.  People  get out  of their  cars and stop on the  side of the road for 2 minutes.  I was still  at home but stood up and observed the siren.

Yom Hashoah in Israel is one of the most important days on the calendar and  one of the most powerful.  Numerous speakers have noted that one of the raison d'etre's  for the State itself is to ensure that this could not happen again.  Many have noted that if Israel had been created in the 1920s or the 1930s (or earlier), it is extremely likely that a high number those who were murdered could have been saved.  

For many survivors, and indeed, many Israelis, the notion of seeing their children and grandchildren in the army, as pilots, combat soldiers, members of the intelligence forces - or in other important state positions gives them an incredible sense of pride but also a sense of comfort and security.   The State of Israel is there to protect them in a way that the Jewish people have  not had for more than 2000 years.

This particularist message is somewhat illustrative of the difference between Yad Vashem  (the Israeli Holocaust Museum)  and the National Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C.  If you haven't been to one or the other, I would highly recommend  visiting  both.  The emphasis in Washington  is very universalist, in my view.  This could have happened to anyone and we need to fight all forms of racism and discrimination to ensure that it does not reoccur.  I'm not disputing the validity of  this message, though at times I have felt that the U.S.  museum downplays the Jewishness of the victims and history of anti-Semitism.  (I have visited several times).  

Yad Vashem emphasizes the Jewish experience including the history of anti-Semitism, the Jewish communities and culture that were  destroyed in Europe and the need, especially, for the  Jewish people to look after their own safety and defence rather than relying on anyone else to do so.  Yad Vashem  certainly addresses  others who were  targeted - the Roma community and gays and devotes a whole section to those  who went  out of their way to save Jews.  But the message is geared more towards the Israeli experience  rather than the broader multi-cultural messages that one might find in Canada or the U.S.  

Prime Minister Netanyahu took this a few steps  further in his annual Yom  Hashoah speech.  He sought to tie the fight to obtain vaccines from Pfizer to the commemoration of the Holocaust  and he also brought in the ongoing fight to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear  weapons.   So there are certainly those who will, at times, take the Holocaust as an event and use it for political purposes, even on Holocaust Rememberance  Day while we are remembering those who perished.  Fortunately, he did not also tie  it in  to his ongoing  criminal trial though many were expecting that  he might try to do so.

But  cynicism aside,  the notion that Israel in 1948 included a population of  whom approximately 25% were Holocaust survivors - and that these people were  able to build a country in the aftermath of such horrible experiences and turn it into a  successful, democratic, secure country is actually quite  mind boggling.  

We remember those who perished and hope and pray for the days of  world  peace, tolerance and an end to  anti-semitism, racism and  other forms of group  hatred.



  

Sunday, April 4, 2021

Post Passover April 2021 - Election Process, Bibi's Trial and Whatever Else...

Here in Israel, Pesach (Passover) came to an end last night, as Shabbat ended - at about 7:35 p.m.  After that, Israelis across the country headed out to Mimouna celebrations - wherever they could find some friends  of Moroccan heritage.  Moroccan Jews mark the end of Pesach with a party at which they eat lots of sweets and mufletta (a fried dough pastry) covered with honey or nutella.  This is not an evening for those on a low-sugar diet.   Moroccans generally offer an "open invitation" to all those who want to show up and come and join them.  I have never figured out how they are able to get everything ready so quickly - change over the dishes, get the kitchen ready etc., in time for a mimouna that starts so quickly after Pesach.  But we have attended a few over the years and they are lots of fun.  We  spent our evening putting away our Pesach dishes and were not able to get to a mimouna this year.

Last year, in Israel, there were no mimouna celebrations because of Covid-19.  This year, with so many people vaccinated and the infection numbers quickly dropping, there were big parties all over the country.  The same can be said for Pesach seders.  This year, many Israelis (us included) were able to attend traditional style seders with 15-20 people or more, whereas last year it was just immediate family members who live at the same address.  Hopefully, the Israeli experience is a sign that by next year things in Canada, the U.S. and other parts of the world will be back to some semblance of normal.

Now that Pesach is over, we have lots of interesting, significant and meaningful events coming up.

On the political side - we have two main events.

Monday April 5, 2021 will officially mark the start of the evidence portion of Netanyahu's trial.  There are over 300 witnesses and some of the witnesses will take a week or two, between examination-in chief and  cross-examination.  The trial is expected to last between 2 and 3 years assuming that it is not somehow resolved before it is completed.  The court will sit all day, three days a week, to hear the  evidence.  Netanyahu has sought permission to be absent from the court room at times and the court has agreed.  I'm not going to spell out all of the details as I have reviewed the charges that Netanyahu is facing in previous posts.  For example, in this post,  I covered come of the issues.  It remains my view that the trial will never actually reach a contested verdict.  One possibility is that Netanyahu will be able to cobble together an election victory at some point - and pass a retroactive immunity bill to end his legal problems.  Many of the would-be supporters of a new Netanyahu government on the right of the political spectrum are willing to support this approach.  As of now, however, Bibi does not have the votes for this.  

The other possibility is that if the trial is proceeding - and things are not looking good - Netanyahu will cut some sort of deal either involving a plea bargain, a pardon or a blend of a political and legal deal.  If, on the other hand, the prosecution's case somehow falls apart, perhaps because key witnesses pass away (or disappear), there is also a possibility that the prosecution could drop the case.  Of course Netanyahu insists that the latter option is what will happen, but I really doubt it.  No matter what transpires, it should make for fascinating political and legal theatre and generate quite a bit of interesting press coverage, complete with round-the-clock analysis.  As a lawyer, I am about as interested in this legal proceeding as any other that I can recall (other than some of my own great cases, of course).

Election Update

Tomorrow is also a very important day in Israel for dealing with the current election deadlock.

As you may know, Israel is a parliamentary democracy, modelled after England or Canada.  The official head of state, ceremonially,  is the President, who fills the role of the Monarch in Britain or the Governor General in Canada.  In other words, the President has very little actual power and is mostly a figurehead.

However, one of the key roles of the president takes place after every election.  (President Rivlin  has been working double or triple time the past few  years).  The President is taked with the role of asking one of the political parties, traditionally the party with the plurality of Knesset seats or the party that has the best chance of being able to build a coaltion with 61 seats - to try and form a government.  The leader of that party is then given 30 days to try and form a coaltion.  

So tomorrow, each party will come to the President's residence to meet with the President and tell him who they plan to recommend to form the government.  13 different parties were elected in the March 2021 elections, each of which attained more than 3.25% of the vote.  So starting at 8 a.m., President Rivlin will meet with 13 different representatives and they will all tell him what they intend to do and who they intend to recommend.  Or maybe they won't really but they have to recommend someone.

It sounds like tonight is going to be a long night of negotiations, promises, political calculations and perhaps some trickery and slight of hand as well.  Maybe some magic spells will also be cast along with some special blessings appealing to the Almighty.  By the time the sun rises in the morning, or perhaps a few hours after that (allowing for time for morning prayers for some), decisions will have been made and the parade will begin.

As of now, news reports indicate that no leader will receive 61 votes of support.  Netanyahu is likely to get 52 which includes his party (Likud) (30), the two ultra-orthodox parties (Shas and UTJ)(16) and the far right party - RJ the Religious Zionists (6).  If he could convince Bennett and the Yamina party to join him - he could get to 58 but that seems unlikely right now.  He is also trying to gain the vote of the Arab Islamic party Ra'am, which has 4 seats to offer. 

The other primary suitor is the Yesh Atid party led by Lapid.  As  of now, Lapid's party is likely to get 43 recommendations - which include Yesh Atid (17), Labour  (7), Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman's secular nationalist party) (7), left wing Meretz (6), and perhaps the Joint List (Arab secular nationlist) (6).  There is a chance that the centrist Blue  and White leader Benny Gantz could recommend Lapid, which could add 8 more and bring Lapid to 51.   However, to this point, Gantz has stated that he will only support Lapid if he thinks that Lapid can form a government.

That leaves two parties - the right wing religious party Yamina (7) ("The Right") and the right wing  New Hope party (a break off from the Likud) with 6.  Naftali Bennett, the leader of Yamina, is insisting that he should be the Prime Minister.  He says that he is the only one who can form a right wing government that is an alterntive to the Likud.  He says he will not join Lapid because  Lapid is too far left.  So he has decided to recommend himself, barring some  kind of last minute deal.   That certainly throws a loop into things but it doesn't seem to get everyone any closer to a deal.

The other party is New Hope led by Gideon Saar.  Saar  says he will not recommend Netanyahu under any circumstances.  Although many of Saar's policies are similar to Bibi's, if not further right, he has stated several times (including this afternoon) that he is determined to eliminate corruption in politics and restore honour to political office in Israel.  That certainly sounds like a tall order to me....

Saar still has not announced who he will support but he stated before the election that he will not recommend Lapid.  So he must now decide between recommending Bennett in which case Bennett would have 13, recommending Lapid in which case Lapid would have as many as 57 or recommending himself (which can't be ruled out as a possibility).  Saying nothing is apparently not an option.

If Saar decides to go against one of his pre-election promises and opts to recommend Lapid, Lapid would either have 49 or 57 depending on whether Gantz also recommends Lapid.  With 57, Lapid would then have 30 days to try and form a government by finding a few more Knesset members or cutting some kind of deal, perhaps with one of the two ultra-religious parties.

If Saar recommends himself or Bennett, the President will almost certainly give Bibi the first chance to form a government.  Bibi, with his 52, will need to try and find 9 more seats.  Even if he were be able to convince Bennett to join him (they have been arch rivals for a number of years  now and Bennett is particularly despised by Bibi's wife, Sara), that would still only get Bibi to 59.  If Bibi fails to form a government, the President could give  Lapid a chance or the Knesset could dissolve and another election could be called.

Behind the scenes - there are two sets of negotiations going on.

Bibi is making all sorts of  promises to try and entice Bennett to join his coalition.  But even if he succeeds he will still only have 59 and he will need to find some defectors or he will have to rely on the support of the Ra'am party.  Some members of Bibi's party have started to speak about the possibility of Likud relying on Ra'am and have insisted that it is a non-starter. The far right RZ party has said that it will not join that coalition under any circumstances.  So Bibi will have to convince  some others to defect.  Perhaps he is hoping to break up Saar's party (like what he did to Blue and White the last time around) or perhaps he is hoping that he can entice Gantz to join him again.  As I have said previously, one can never count Bibi out but he is facing quite an uphill battle.

The other negotiations are taking place between Saar, Bennett and Lapid.  Saar and Bennett are essentially saying that together they have 13 seats (which is still less than Lapid's 17).  They are asking that Lapid agree to a rotation government in which they would share power, with Bennett as Prime Minister for half of the time and Lapid the other half.    For the parties to the left  of Lapid, including Meretz, the Labour party and the Arab Joint List, this is not very popular.  These parties do not want to replace Bibi, the right wing Likud leader, with someone who is even more right wing.  On the other side, members of Saar's party and of Bennett's do not want Lapid as the Prime Minister since they feel he is too far to the left.  If you add all of this up, it comes to 63.  However, that would be a bed full of awfully strange bedmates.  A left wing secular Arab party, a left wing secular mixed party (Meretz), a right wing religious nationalist party (Yamina) all sharing the same blanket.  The only thing they can all agree on is that they all want to kick Bibi out of the bed.

One possibility is that Saar and Bennett will try to woo the ultra-religious parties with their 16 seats to leave the Bibi camp and join them - perhaps instead of the Joint List and Meretz.  Would Lapid go along with this? Unclear.  For now, the Shas party says that it will refuse and it has sworn allegiance to Bibi.  The other party, UTJ, seems to be starting to waver.  The ultra religious parties do not want to be left out in the cold and will, at the last minute, do whatever it takes to avert that possible disaster.

I think that is about all I can say for now about what is going to happen.  How do I handicap all of this?  Okay - let's go with 40% that Bibi manages to come up with some kind of deal by finding some defectors, working over Gantz, or breaking up Saar's party and/or by relying on the Ra'am party.  Next, let's say 35% that we have another election by September or October.  Finally, that leaves a 25% chance that some kind of  alternate government can be strung together by Lapid, Bennett and  Saar.

You might say that I am being  fairly non-commital.  Fair enough.  But that is the current  state of Israeli politics.  I think this is a realistic assesssment of what we are likely to see. 

Other Events and Commemorations

Wednesday night  is Erev Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah.  The day of Rememberance of the Holocaust and Heroism.  It will be 82 years since the start the second World War and 80 years  since the Nazis made the decision to begin operating death  camps to ramp up their systematic mass murder of the Jews of Europe.  Memorial events will be held across the country.  TV stations will show Holocaust themed  movies and documentaries all night and all day long (on Thursday) and a two minute long siren will blare across the country during which traffic across the country will come to a stand still.  Restaurants will be closed across the country on Wednesday evening as people walk to near by community commemorations.

The following week, April 14th is Israel's Rememberance Day for fallen soldiers and victims of terrorism.  And April 15th will be Israel Independence Day marking Israel's 73rd birthday.  I have written about both of these days in previous blogs.

I am not sure yet how  all of these events will be marked across the country as we are still easing out of the Covid-19 restrictions but I am certain that there will be all sorts of commemortations and festivities respectively.

As Pesach ends, the weather starts to warm up in Israel and beach season arrives.  In fact, we are expecting some very hot weather this week with a cool down by the end  of the week.   A bit of a taste of things to come perhaps.  By May, it will be quite hot here.  As the vaccine continues to work, I am quite sure that the beaches will be overcrowded this year, even if tourists won't yet be  able to join our Israeli beach goers.  Let's hope that by next year that, too, will change  back to some semblance  of normal.

Wishing  everyone the  best of health and hoping that you will all have the chance to come and visit soon!