As Jews around the world prepare
to celebrate Rosh Hashanah - the
Jewish New Year of 5773, it is probably fair to say that many of us have
significant concerns about the coming year and in particular the situation that
Israel is currently facing.
Events throughout the region over
the past year have demonstrated yet again that Israel resides in a very
unstable and dangerous neighbourhood.
The emergence of an Islamic government in Egypt, with its volatile and
often hostile rhetoric has led to a heightened level of security on Israel’s
southern border and accompanying sense of deep concern.
Events unfolding in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and
other parts of the Middle East have all reinforced the idea that Israel really
is an island of democracy and western values in a sea of dark, hostile
regimes. As Caroline Glick recently
suggested in the Jerusalem Post, many liberals held the optimistic view
that these regimes would be “liberated” and would choose freedom in their new
transformed governing structures. But this
hope has not turned to reality. In fact,
even Turkey, a country that once was the example of a true Muslim democracy,
seems headed in the other direction. For
all the talk of an “Arab Spring” in Egypt, there is no sign that Egypt will be
emerging from winter weather any time soon even though summer and early fall temperatures
may regularly pass 40 C.
Of course, above all else, the
Israeli government, the Israeli press and much of the world media have been
consumed with the ongoing threat posed by Iran and the best way for Israel to
address it.
There is no easy solution here. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been pushing for
a “red line” threat to be presented by the world to Iran, beyond which the
world community would take military action to prevent Iran from realizing its
nuclear ambitions.
On the one hand, Israel has every
reason to be concerned. Iranian leader
Ahmadinejad has vowed to destroy Israel and has repeatedly called for its
elimination. He has called Israel “a
cancer” on the body of the world that needs to be removed. Iran has certainly shown in the past that it
is not averse to suicidal missions that could result in the deaths of hundreds
of thousands of its citizens if this is viewed as justifiable. Should Israel simply dismiss his rhetoric as
that of a madman? This could be a very
dangerous miscalculation, as history has shown.
This is a very real, existential issue for Israel.
On the other hand, it is not
clear that Israel would be able to carry out a successful attack on all of Iran’s
nuclear facilities at this time, even with U.S. help, if such help was forthcoming. This does not appear to be the same type of situation
that Israel faced in dealing with Iraq’s nuclear reactor in Osirak, Iraq in
1981 or the alleged attack by Israel on the Syrian nuclear project in September
2007. Iran supposedly has many different
sites, spread out throughout the country and hidden deep below the ground. These sites have purportedly been designed to
repel traditional air attacks.
Moreover, if Israel were
successful, it is far from clear that such success would translate into a
significant delay in Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Perhaps Israel would gain a year or two or
more, but Iran might also redouble its efforts with increased aid from
sympathetic countries. As well, Israel could
face massive reprisal attacks from a range of sources. Israel had a very difficult time defending
itself from rocket attacks in the 2006 war with Lebanon. This time around, the attacks could be far
more severe.
Radio talk shows have filled the
airwaves in Israel with discussions of possible consequences. One radio show I was listening to was hosting
former Israeli generals to discuss competing estimates of potential Israeli
casualties in the event of an attack on Iran.
The estimates ranged from 300-400 Israelis killed in a “highly
successful attack and defence strategy” to tens of thousands in a less
successful operation.
Another radio show appealed to
the black humour of the Israeli public which is often necessary for those of us
living here. Callers were asked to come
up with an appropriate code name for the eventual military operation to be
undertaken. This show was a few months
ago, just after the holiday of Purim (which is said to have taken place in
ancient Persia (i.e. Iran). Callers were
suggesting names like “Operation Avenge Esther,” “Operation Crush the Hamentaschen”
or “Operation Ra’ashan” (a noise maker used on Purim to blot out the
name of the evil villain of the story, Haman). Even though the callers were trying to be
humourous, one could still sense the readily apparent level of unease.
More recently, much has been made
of the apparent rift between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S.
President Obama, particularly over the very issue of whether to proceed with an
attack on Iran. Many have suggested that
Netanyahu is openly interfering with the current U.S. election campaign by
attempting to call attention to President Obama’s failure to give Israel a
green light (at least publicly) to proceed with an operation against Iran. Indeed, Netanyahu often seems to be echoing
the sentiments of Republican candidate Mitt Romney who claimed that President
Obama has “thrown Israel under the bus.”
But President Obama’s record vis a vis Israel is not nearly as
negative as one might believe from listening to the words of Prime Minister
Netanyahu or Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. In many respects, U.S.-Israeli cooperation in
military, economic and technological spheres is the strongest it has ever
been. While it is somewhat
disconcerting that President Obama has not visited Israel during his first term
in office (even while visiting Egypt), it is far from clear that the U.S.
President must be seen as supporting every policy of the current Israeli Prime
Minister to be viewed as a close friend and ally. In fact, quite a number of Israelis do not
agree with many of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies. Many Israelis feel that Prime Minister
Netanyahu has gone out of his way to try embarrass President Obama and to push
for the election of Romney.
While some Israelis might accept
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s assessment of President Obama’s views of Israel, it
appears that American Jews are remaining supportive of President Obama. According to a Gallup poll released this
week, some 70% of American Jews are expected to vote for President Obama in the
upcoming elections. While this may
signify the fact that American Jews overwhelmingly support more liberal
positions on a range of social issues – and these are the issues that dominate an American presidential election campaign,
it may also indicate that American Jews still believe that Obama will be fine
for Israel in the long run. Many
Israelis (and American Jews) would count Democratic President Bill Clinton as
one of the best friends that Israel ever had in the White House. On the other hand, Republican President
Ronald Reagan was a tremendous friend of the Saudi Arabian regime, perhaps more
so than with Israel. It is far from
clear that President Bush’s policies (either one of the two presidents) left Israel in a
safer, more secure or more stable situation in the Middle East.
Hopefully, despite all of the posturing
by Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Israeli-U.S. relationship will continue to be
a close, strategic relationship between friends, irrespective of who wins the
White House in November. And hopefully,
these friends will continue to work together on an urgent basis to come up with
the best way of preventing Iran from fulfilling its nuclear ambitions. It may well be that military leaders have a
detailed plan for a pending attack that will meet all of its objectives
successfully. Or perhaps, there will be other ways to achieve this result.
That’s a lot to hope for at Rosh
Hashanah, along with our hopes for peace throughout the Middle East and the
rest of the world. But I do believe that
we have to be optimistic, even while being realistic and being prepared for a whole
range of possible scenarios.
A happy and healthy New Year to all. Shana Tova.
