Israel Wrap Up Update 2023

Fallen Soldiers

Captain Shaul Greenglick z"l was killed this week in northern Gaza.  He was 26 years old.  He was an officer in the Nahal brigades, unit 931.  He was from Ra'anana.  Just a few weeks ago, he participated, in uniform, in Israel's reality singing contest "Kochav Nolad" ("A Star is Born") and passed into the next round. He impressed the panel of four judges with his rendition of a Hanan Ben Ari song, "Blind Bat."  After performing, he returned to Gaza to fight with his unit.  He was killed along with 26 year old Captain Shay Shamriz. In total, six soldiers were killed on Monday.  The IDF has just announced three more names of soldiers killed yesterday, including Eliezer Chitiz z"l, who was also from Ra'anana.   In total, 164 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the start of the ground operation in Gaza and a total of 498 soldiers have been killed since the start of the war on October 7, 2023.

Captain Greenglick's funeral was today in Ra'anana.  We joined thousands of Ra'anana residents to line the streets and wave Israeli flags as the military hearse drove by, escorted by several security vehicles.  I would think the same scene will take place again tomorrow in Ra'anana for the funeral of Eliezer Chitiz, who will also be laid to rest in the military cemetery in Ra'anana, which is two blocks away from our home.

Military Situation - State of the War

Israel is in a very dangerous phase of the war now.  The country's military forces are fighting actively (to different degrees) on seven different fronts.  One area of heavy fighting is in Gaza, where thousands of Israeli troops are fighting Hamas guerillas in many different locations.  The Israeli army has gone into the tunnel network in various locations and has been fighting in many different areas in northern and southern areas of Gaza.  Since the temporary cease fire deal ended, the casualty rate for Israeli soldiers has spiked dramatically.  I have not heard any reports to suggest that the fighting is close to a conclusion.

In the north, Israel is fighting on two fronts.  On the Lebanon border, from Israel's west coast to the point where Lebanon, Syria and Israel all meet, Israel is fighting a very active and very difficult war against Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is stationed right at Israel's border and has been launching anti-tank missiles against civilian and military targets, unmanned suicide drone attacks, weaponized, controlled drone attacks and other military and terrorist campaigns.  Israel has been defending against these attacks and launching its own counter-offensive measures on an ongoing basis.  Many Israeli soldiers have fallen in these northern battles.

In the northeast, Israel is fighting against Syria and Iraq, with Hezbollah and other Iranian backed military groups launching attacks from Syrian territory.  Israeli has responded to these attacks in many different ways, some  of which have been reported in the media - reaching as far as the Damascus area.

Israel is also fighting against Hamas-backed groups of terrorists in areas of Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank").  Some areas have seen particularly heavy fighting including Jenin and the Tulkarem area.

In the south, Israel has had to deal with proxy attacks from the Houthi rebels, an Iranian-sponsored military organization situated in Yemen that has vowed to attack any and all ships travelling through the Red Sea Strait en route to or from Israel.  The Houthis have fired several long-range, Iranian-supplied missiles at Eilat and other places in Israel.  To date, these missiles have been shot down by U.S. or Israeli defence forces using anti-missile systems.

The big "mastermind" behind all of this - and the main enemy is, of course, the Republic of Iran, which has armed, trained, sponsored and, largely, controlled all of these forces.  Iran is using Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups as proxies to attack Israeli while, to date, avoiding any direct attacks on Israel.  As recently as yesterday, Iran threatened to begin direct attacks against Israel soon. Iran has, for several years, called for the destruction of Israel and is certainly the most hostile country in the region towards the State of  Israel.  Iran has also been the sponsor of virulent anti-Semitic propaganda including Holocaust denial and other poisonous forms of anti-Jewish bigotry.

To get to seven fronts, you can separate the Syrian forces from the Iraqi forces - though attacks and activity from these two groups are largely originating from the same place.

Now with that all in mind, calling for an "unconditional cease fire" is tantamount to calling for Israel to surrender to these various enemies, which Israel certainly will not do.  The Hamas leadership, in interviews since October 7, 2023, has stated that they plan to carry out the same types of attacks "over and over again" until "Israel is destroyed."  Iran has made similar threats. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah started this war and they have not offered any proposals or concessions that would form the basis for a short or long term cease fire.

For now, the prospects of all of this ending any time soon seem bleak.  At this point, it seems unfathomable that Israel will conclude the war in Gaza without destroying the Hamas leadership or coming to a deal whereby the Hamas leadership leaves Gaza (like the Lebanon war deal in the 1980s in which Arafat and the PLO left Beirut and went to Tunisia).  Israel will also need to insist on a deal whereby Hezbollah moves back, several kilometres, from the Israeli-Lebanon border and the Israeli-Syrian border.  If there is no deal with Hezbollah, there may will be a full-blown war with Lebanon, that could start any time now.

As for Iran, I don't believe that Israel is about to launch a major attack on Iran, though there are certainly scenarios in which Iran could draw the U.S. into the conflict and provoke U.S. operations against Iran.  This does not seem too likely as of now, but the Middle East is quite unpredictable.

Israeli Appreciation towards Soldiers

One of our family members was home for a break from reserve duty in Gaza.  We went to grab breakfast before he had to return.  He was in uniform.  As we were sitting in the cafe, some Ra'anana residents came over to talk to him.  They thanked him for his service and insisted on paying for whatever he wanted to order (as well as anything his friend and fellow soldier ordered).  Of course we would have been happy to pay the bill but this was such a nice gesture.  It is something that happens all  over Israel wherever civilians see soldiers in uniform, especially these days.

Hostages

According to current reports, there are still about 133 hostages being held by Hamas who were taken into captivity on October 7, 2023.  Some were soldiers, some were residents of the various Kibbutzim and communities near Gaza that were attacked and some were concert-goers attending the Nova music festival. Some very young children are still in captivity, assuming they are alive.  No list has been provided by Hamas or the International Red Cross - or anyone else.  We really don't know how many of  these hostages are still alive, what condition they are in or where they are being held.  

Based on information we have received from released hostages, we know that the hostages were being held in very difficult conditions with very little food  and water provided each day.  Some of the women were separated out and kept in different areas.  There are reports (from the released hostages and others) about widespread sexual abuse.  Some of the other hostages were quite elderly, in their 80s, with various medical conditions.  

Israelis have been demonstrating in support of the families of these hostages and demanding that the government take all appropriate steps to return the hostages home.  But so far, there is no available deal on the table that would bring this about.  There are rumours of different negotiations taking place, brokered by Egypt, Qatar or others - but I have not heard any reports that a deal is close.

Civilian Deaths

Israel is obviously facing a difficult situation trying to extricate Hamas from Gaza while they have embedded their fighters in civilian populations and launched attacks from schools, mosques, hospitals and other crowded areas.  Even the Hamas leadership is apparently now using groups of hostages as human shields to avoid being killed or captured.

The Hamas Health Ministry has been reporting more than 20,000 Gazans as having been killed.  But there are a few things to remember.

First of all, the numbers are not verified and Hamas has notoriously exaggerated or fabricated numbers of casualties (remember the hospital incident early this year).  

Secondly, Hamas does not announce the numbers of fighters who are killed.  By Israel estimates, the numbers of Hamas fighters killed are 1/2 to 2/3 of the total number killed.  In other words - the actual Hamas numbers of total casualties my be anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 - we just don't know.

Of those, the number of Hamas fighters killed is between 8,000 and 12,000, according to different Israeli sources.

Suffice it to say that the civilian casualty numbers are therefore much lower than the numbers that are simply accepted and printed by publications and news media around the world.

This is not to say that anyone in Israel is happy to see high numbers of civilian casualties in Gaza.

But at the same time - we are dealing with an enemy that is trying to kill as many of us as possible- civilians and military personnel.  In that circumstance - Israelis feel that we are better off killing our enemies than being killed ourselves.  This is the same type of reaction that the Allies had when dealing with Germany - or Japan in World War II - or that any nation has when confronted with an armed conflict started by an enemy.

The Israeli army would rather protect the lives of as many Israelis (soldiers and civilians) as possible, even if that means that there are civilian casualties while fighting Hamas. That's unfortunate but it is a by-product of war.  Certainly the civilian casualties in Gaza or far lower than the casualty numbers in conflicts involving Russia, Syria or even the United States (see Afghanistan, Iraq or other places).

To call the Israeli war against Hamas a "genocide" is  nothing less than a morally vacuous blood libel.  Yet that is the language coming from Turkey, Iran, Hamas-sponsored university groups across the United States and Canada and other places.

Volunteers and Visitors

Amidst all of this, people are still visiting Israel, as difficult as it might be to get here (with El Al and Emirates being the only airlines that are currently flying to Israel).  One of our friends arrived last week and is volunteering with "Sar-El" a group that stations volunteers for two-week periods at army bases around Israel to help pack supplies, equipment, food and assist in other ways.  Another friend has been visiting and volunteering to pick fruit and vegetables at various sites around the country.  Israel normally relies on labour from Thailand, Judea and Samaria, some Gazans and other foreign workers for much of the seasonal agricultural work.  Very few workers from any of these places are available.  Farmers around the country have been begging Israelis and others to come help  out - sometimes on a paid basis and sometimes as volunteers.  Israelis and people from all over the world have been answering the call.

Many synagogues from across  North America and other places have been bringing "missions" to Israel.  A group from the Park Avenue Synagogue in New York came earlier this month.  In mid-January, a group will be visiting Israel from Beth Tikvah Synagogue in Toronto.  Just today, some friends told us that they will be arriving in mid-January for a 10 day trip - including some time volunteering in different places.

In short, there are lots of volunteer opportunities and I think Israelis are very grateful for the help - both from non-Israelis - who have shown up to volunteer - and from Israelis - many of whom are volunteering in different ways.

Of course, many other tours have been cancelled - including the various birthright groups. Some friends who were planning to come cancelled - and others postponed their trips. I think the short term future of tourism to Israel is very much up in the air - like so many other things for Israelis now including academic programs, social events, work and so many other parts of a normal routine. So many of our young people are cancelling all of these events to serve in life and death missions in Gaza, Israel's north, or wherever else they might be stationed.

Getting Here

As I mentioned above, only El Al and Emirates (as well as the Emirates subsidiary "Fly Dubai") are flying to Tel-Aviv now.  El Al is flying to several cities in the U.S. - so if you are flying from New York, Boston, Chicago, Miami or some other cities - and don't mind flying El Al - there are still available flights.

In my case, as I have written in different articles in the past, I tend to stick with Star Alliance airlines,  flying  Air Canada as often as I can.  So I have been joining Air Canada flights with El Al flights.  They don't have a baggage sharing arrangement - so I have had to collect my bags, go through immigration and then re-check-in to drop off my bag.  It is very cumbersome.  If you are doing this, you need to allow about four hours for a transfer.

For my flight back to Toronto, I flew through Amsterdam without a checked bag.  This was much better than flying with a bag since I did not have to go through immigration, security or anything else.  I was just able to make my way over to the Air Canada gate with lots of time to spare and even managed to spend time in the lounge in Amsterdam (which was nothing exciting).

On my way back to Israel, I flew Air Canada to London.  That part of the flight was fine.  I then had to collect my bags and walk quite a long distance to the subway system to take a train to terminal 4.  This took quite a while and was a bit of a pain since I had a suitcase with me - along with a carry on bag and a knapsack.  There were lots of escalators, moving walkways, corridors and other parts to this journey - which took close to an hour in total.

Once I arrived at terminal 4 - things were fine - though the El Al gate was not even open yet.  So I wound up sitting around in a coffee bar waiting for the El Al desk to open.

Overall, it was certainly better than Amsterdam but it was not fun. At least the immigration line was efficient.

I haven't found the ideal arrangement yet though I will have to go back to Toronto in mid-January.  My current plan is to travel again through Rome.  (El Al to Rome and then Air Canada to Toronto).

Although some airlines have announced a resumption of service to Israel, scheduled for mid-January, I don't believe that these flights will begin again until there is a cease fire of some sort. I guess we will have to see.

Entertainment

Throughout all of this, Israeli TV has continued to broadcast episodes of "Eretz Nehederet" ("It's a Wonderful Country") which is the closest thing Israel has to Saturday Night Live. The show is replete with satirical sketches involving impersonators of many of Israel's political leaders and other public figures.  Eretz Nehederet has aired some sketches in English poking fun at the BBC's coverage of the war, the U.S. college campus situation and other world events.  Much of the humour is very dark - but they are trying to bring a bit of levity to a very difficult situation.  The skits are hit or miss.  Some are extremely funny, some not so much.  Isn't that the case with any satirical show?

Last week's show included an impersonation of Tzvi Yehezkeli - an Israeli commentator who is fluent in Arabic and has been on Israeli TV continuously, providing interpretations of Arabic news releases and statements.  The Eretz Nehederet version was quite spot-on, making fun of Yehezkeli's  explanation of Arabic phrases and idioms.  At one point - the impersonator provided a sentence in Arabic - and then offered the translation - "The world is like a cucumber....one day you are holding it in your hand - and the next day it is stuck up your butt."  I'm not here to interpret these things - I am just passing on what I heard (and laughed at, I have to say).

Last  night, Eretz Nehederet aired a very serious sketch involving a traumatized soldier showing up to watch his family arguing about politics as usual. This one was tear-inducing and difficult to watch. The skit was done with an overlay of the song "Kama Tov She'bata Habayta" - ("How great it is that you have come home") - sung originally in 1971 by the late Israeli singer Arik Einstein. The song was originally written as a group effort by Yankele Rotblitt, Shalom Hanoch and Itzkhak Klapter.  The original version was written welcoming someone back after returning from a long trip abroad. Eretz Nehederet changed the words somewhat. Not sure if there is a translation available yet - but if your Hebrew is up to it - and the link works wherever you are - you can use the link above to watch it. Even without the Hebrew translation, you can probably get the mood from the sombre tone and the scene itself.

The other Israeli show that has been airing twice a week is "Zehu Zeh"  ("That's that") which is also a satirical show but a very different format. I think I have written about it in the past. They have also been airing skits making fun of the Houthis - implying that they are launching rockets at Israel from Yemen because they are bored. Zehu Zeh usually features two songs each episode, one with a guest singer.  Over the past few weeks - many different guests have appeared including Eidan Reichel, Chava Alberstein, and others.  The music has generally been excellent.  The comedy sketches - hit or miss.

Israeli singers have continued to travel the country performing for soldiers all over - whether in bases near Gaza, Gaza itself - or in different places in the north.  Some stand-up comedians have also been entertaining soldiers.  As you might have seen, Jerry Seinfeld showed up in Israel last week as a gesture of support - though I am not sure that he entertained troops anywhere.

December Holidays in Israeli

As you might know, Christmas is largely a non-event in Israel, outside of pockets of Christian communities.  It is a regular workday, everything is open.  It is quite something to see - for someone who is used to being bombarded with Christmas music in restaurants, shopping malls and everywhere else for two months before the holiday in Canada.

I have nothing against people celebrating Christmas - I wish all of my friends the very best in enjoying their celebrations. And if I am in Toronto and invited to a party or a dinner, I am certainly happy to join them.

At the same time, it is a season where, when I am in Toronto, I am constantly reminded how I differ from everyone else - how I stick out as a minority - and how I don't belong.  

Even though Israel is a majority Jewish state, the malls are not generally decorated with any particular holiday's decorations - and there is no time of the year where Jewish holiday-themed music is on the radio 24/7.  On the actual holidays, everything is closed. But it seems to me it would be a lot less "in your face" than the way Christmas is celebrated in North America - even though Canada is not supposed to be a "religious" country by definition.

In Toronto this year, the local Second Cup starting playing Christmas music right after Canadian Thanksgiving ended (in October). I would have thought that even people who celebrate Christmas would be happy with two to three weeks of Christmas music at most.  But maybe I'm wrong.

Anti-Semitism Around the World

One of the major effects of this war has been a massive ramp up in anti-Semitism around the world.  The U.S. Ivy League schools (many of which receive huge donations from Qatar) have been at the forefront of anti-Israel demonstrations - many of which have blended into anti-Jewish hatefests.  

In Canada, the universities have not been much better.  Metropolitan University (formerly Ryerson) has been the source of some of the most vitriolic anti-Israel - and anti-Jewish hate speech.  York University has not been far behind. University of Toronto's "Varsity" publication has been spewing repugnant disinformation. CUPE (the Canadian Union of Public Employees) has a leader who "rejoiced" the day after the October 7th massacres and has engaged in an outrageous smear campaign against Israel.

Through all of this, Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, was the proud recipient of thank you video put out by one of the Hamas leaders - obviously an ignominious and dubious honour.  I think that Australia and New Zealand also received this fine mention from Hamas - and perhaps Ireland as well.

There have also been demonstrations across Europe and around the world, chanting "from the River to the Sea..." which is a call for the destruction of Israel. As a result, there is quite a feeling of isolation here right now. Israel seems to have very few real friends - the United States, Germany - and some days Britain  Maybe a handful of others.

Interestingly, there was a poll published last week in Israel - in which Israelis were asked "who is a better friend of Israel - Trump or Biden?" Far more Israelis went with Biden - which was a new phenomenon for Israelis, many of whom had viewed Trump as one of the best U.S. Presidents that Israel ever had as a friend in the White House.

But really - aside from all of this - for those European Countries that are wavering, and others, the situation is not that complicated.  You have on the one hand an axis of Russia, Hamas, Turkey, Qatar, Hezbollah, Iran and a handful of others. On the other hand - Israel, the U.S., Germany, Great Britain and some others.  I don't even think one needs to say more than that. For the countries supporting the Hamas-Qatar-Iran group - unfortunately, they will probably wind up next on the list soon enough.  And frankly, this is probably a very real warning to Trudeau and his government who want to bring hundreds of thousands of Hamas sympathizers to Canada. All I can do here is quote President Biden - "Don't!....just don't!..."

And I think that is about it for now.  I wish everyone a happy and healthy 2024 and hope that it will be a much more peaceful year.  Best regards from Israel.

War in Israel - Day 16 - Update

We are in day 16 of war and there are no signs that we are anywhere near any kind of cease-fire.  On the contrary, there are significant signs that this war will expand very soon.  It is evident that Israel is fighting a war against Iran, to this point, against Iran's proxies - Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian-based fighters and now, the Houthis, in Yemen.  Many different articles, including articles in Reuters and other places (often pro-Hamas) have quoted Iranian sources as all but admitting that Iran is pulling the strings and controlling the extent to which Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others, will be involved.  

Iran has stated many times, for years, that it would like to destroy Israel and plans to so. To that end, it has armed Hamas, Hezbollah and other forces, and worked on developing nuclear weapons, with the primary intention of carrying out attacks against Israel.  If Iran views this war as the opportunity it has been waiting for, it may join the war directly. That would almost certainly mean fighting directly against the U.S. On the optimistic side, it is far from clear at this point that Iran is ready for or interested in that entanglement.

With that opening, I would like to cover a few different areas in the limited scope of this blog. Call it news or items that jump out at me since I could not possibly write this as a comprehensive blog. Even in non-war times, the task would be Herculean.  In times of war it would be impossible.

Fall Out from October 7 - Simchat Torah Massacre 

As of now, the Israeli government reports that Hamas and its allies are holding 212 hostages in Gaza - the majority of whom are civilians including young children, senior citizens, men and women of all ages.  Some soldiers are also being held captive.  More than 1,300 Israelis were killed in the attacks on October 7, the vast majority of whom were civilians.  More than 3,000 were injured. More than 300 are still in the hospital and at least 50 of those are in serious or critical condition.

Since October 7, extensive information has emerged about what took place, about Hamas'  preparations, plans, weaponry and goals. The details are often too gruesome to recount. Victims were burned alive, often tied together with wires before being set on fire. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified. Infants were murdered and in many cases decapitated. Whole families were tortured and then murdered. Civilians of all different ages were murdered in horrendous fashion.

Investigators found Hamas instruction booklets carried by many of the terrorists with detailed plans.  The plans specifically noted where the schools, nurseries and  synagogues were with instructions for  murdering everyone in those places. These Hamas terrorists also brought with them extra blood supplies, food provisions, medicines and sufficient provisions to last for one to two months. They also brought large quantities of captogen (fenethylline), a psychostimulant, which is mainly produced in Syria, a drug that was also used by members of ISIS. The plans that Hamas terrorists were carrying included instructions for massacring civilians in Ashqelon and Kiryat Gat.

This mass terrorist attack has devasted most of the Israeli communities that were situated near the Gaza strip. Whole neighbourhoods were destroyed, the homes were burned down, everything nearby was set aflame or destroyed. The survivors have been placed in hotels in different places in Israel - or with other communities or Israelis in different places. Israelis across the country have organized groups to help with supplies, fundraising, food and every other possible type of help.  

Israel's Reaction So Far

How is a country to react to this type of attack? Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, Gaza has been controlled and run by Hamas, a terrorist organization, which acts as the Gaza government. Hamas has dedicated itself to building up weaponry, tunnels, military forces and it has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. It has fostered hatred of Jews in its schools, training camps and throughout the Gaza strip. This is our neighbour.

Israel has fought several wars with Gaza during which Gaza has launched rocket attacks at civilian targets across Israel and targeted Israeli civilians in every way possible. On each occasion, world leaders have called for "restraint" and "proportionality" while Israel has tried to get to the source of these attacks by going after Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces - while trying to minimize civilian casualties. That is a challenging task since Hamas sets up its headquarters and its munitions depots in densely populated centres including schools, mosques, hospitals and underground beneath residential areas.

But the scope of this 2023 attack is on an entirely different scale. More than 1,400 people killed in an  attack in Israel is an unimaginable number. On a per-capita basis, this would be the equivalent of an attack on the U.S. from a neighbouring country that killed more than 40,000 people (in gruesome  ways) in several different cities - and injured more than 90,000.   

It is also worth noting that at the time Hamas carried out these attacks on Israeli communities, it announced that it was "declaring war" on Israel. Contrary to some reports you may have read, Israel did not just go ahead and launch a war on Hamas. Rather, it responded to Hamas.

When a country is faced with a murderous, terrorist regime next door, that carries out these types of attacks, it should be fairly evident that there are few alternatives. Israel has no alternative now but to fight to destroy and overthrow the Hamas regime, much in the same way the Allies had to rid the world of the murderous Nazi regime or the Japanese leadership during World War II. Israel will target the entire Hamas leadership, its military infrastructure, its tunnel systems and its military arsenals. I think it is unlikely that this war will end until the vast majority of this has all been destroyed. Anything short will leave Israel fighting these wars over and over and over, every two or three years.

What are the alternatives?  Around the world, some Hamas allies, supporters and other apologists are calling  for an immediate "cease fire."  What would that mean?  It would pretty much be a surrender for  Israel and would allow Hamas to rebuild its arsenal and prepare for the next attack. This is not happening. Israel cannot function with this type of regime continuing to threaten and carry out attacks repeatedly.

Political  Solution?  There isn't really one at this time. Although many Israelis are hoping that it will be possible to reach a political deal with the Palestinians, especially those currently living in Judea and  Samaria (the "West Bank"), there is no possibility of reaching a deal with a terrorist group like Hamas, dedicated to destroying Israel. Ultimately, the regime will need to be replaced with some other form of government, with careful controls to keep the area demilitarized - and a build up of economic infrastructure and opportunity, rather than military infrastructure. Alternatives might include another Palestinian leadership, some type of international coalition or some other arrangements. If the Palestinian people in Gaza are able to install a government that is focused on economic, health care, infrastructure and other initiatives, rather then on destroying Israel, there may be a chance for future, peaceful co-existence.

Since 2005, Israel and Egypt have both controlled different parts of the border to Gaza. Palestinian advocates are constantly arguing that Israel should "open its borders" and let Gazans into Israel to work, travel etc., But look at what happened now. For one thing, Hamas has spent years building up weaponry, rockets, all kinds of military equipment, while planning its attacks. Nothing about what Hamas has done since 2005, and especially in these attacks, provides any reason for Israel to open or ease its border with Gaza.

There were many workers from Gaza with permits to work in Israel, who were crossing into Israel to work regularly. We now know that many of these workers were cooperating with Hamas - taking pictures, providing information about military bases, security arrangements in communities and detailed drawings and plans of places in Israel. Much of this information was used by Hamas in its attacks. I do not see a situation in the near future where Gaza residents will be crossing into Israel, for any reason after this war ends. If one of the supposed "reasons" for this Hamas massacre was to "open the gates," this type of terrorism will certainly set back any discussion of looser borders.

Other Conflict Areas

As I mentioned above, it is quite clear that much of the current anti-Israeli activity is being controlled by the Iranian regime, which is the primary sponsor of Hamas. Iran also sponsors, equips, trains and controls the Hezbollah regime, which is the largest non-state military actor in the region and which controls Lebanon.

Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Hezbollah has been making all kinds of threats against Israel. As well, Hezbollah has been launching increasingly severe attacks against Israel from the north.  They have launched rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and artillery fire at Israel, killing several  Israelis and wounding many others. Israel has responded with attacks that have killed several Hezbollah fighters and that have corresponded to the intensity of the Hezbollah attacks.  

There is a growing sense that Israel will soon be embroiled in a full scale war with Lebanon. Israel has ordered the evacuation of many of its northern cities, including Metullah. The U.S. has moved two aircraft carriers to the region. Canada has announced an evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon. Israel has called up a massive number of reserve soldiers and has an enormous number of troops ready to fight on its northern border. It is all up to the leaders in Iran - to give the signal to Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah - to launch a full scale war. The U.S. has, thus far, indicated that it will not put "boots on the ground" in Lebanon - but it may well be that aircraft from the U.S.S. Gerald Ford or the U.S.S. Eisenhower would become involved if Israel were to be attacked by Lebanon.

It seems unlikely that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah, even though some Israeli military leaders now believe that would be better for Israel than waiting to be attacked. But President Biden seems to be urging Israel to refrain, with the hope that Hezbollah may ultimately choose to stay out of the conflict. It is really hard to predict at this point. But if Hezbollah goes all in for a full military conflict with Israel, that may well spread to include Iran and the U.S.

Iran also has armed forces in north eastern Syria that have been arriving from Iraq. Israel has already launched some defensive actions against some of these forces as they progress towards Israel.

On Thursday night - the Iranian backed Houthis, a Yemenite group, loyal to Iran, launched several drones at Israel, destined for Eilat. These attacks were reportedly thwarted by the U.S. navy - but we  now have an indication that another Iranian proxy, the Yemenite Houthis, want to become involved as well. I don't think they were really on Israel's radar - and the Houthis have had enough problems fighting their own civil war in Yemen. But here we are, adding in another possible party to the conflict.  As a breaking news addition to this update, just before I complete it, the Houthis have just announced that if Israel begins a ground incursion into Gaza, the Houthis will launch an all out attack on all Israeli ships in the Red Sea. I would imagine that Israel and/or the U.S. would strike the Houthis very hard if they carry out these threats.

Overall, it is quite evident that Israel is now fighting a broad, regional war, sponsored by Iran and its proxies, which has become more of an existential threat than what I might have previously described as a more localized but large-scale Hamas terrorist attack. The war is still simmering in some places but it may boil over soon and the scale of this war may be unfathomable. 

The World

This past week, leaders from around the world visited Israel, including President Biden, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Sunak, German Chancellor Scholz. For the most part, these leaders were sympathetic to Israel, aware of the situation - and at the same time, trying to do whatever they can to limit the spread of the war and to minimize civilian casualties. Israelis were particularly comforted impressed by President Biden who showed extraordinary leadership. He sent two aircraft carriers to the region immediately. He visited Israel during war time, in dangerous conditions. He met with families of hostages and with Israelis who acted heroically to save others. Further, President Biden delivered three speeches, two of which were exceptional (the two speeches he gave in Israel). 

As a side note, President Biden's second speech in Israel included a mini "dvar-Torah" - a Bible-related discussion - during which he spoke about the holiday that the Jewish people were celebrating the day of the Hamas massacre. He mentioned the tremendous loss that the Jewish people faced when Moses died at the end of the last book of the Torah. The President spoke about how the holiday marks a point in the year where the Jewish people conclude the annual reading of the Torah, by reading the final chapter, with all of its sadness, and then somehow move on to a new beginning, by starting the reading of the Torah over again, right away. I thought was very well done, whether it was written by the President himself, one of his speech writers or hired rabbi somewhere.   

All of this support and empathy stands in enormous contrast to the U.S. stance 50 years ago, during the Yom Kippur  War, in which President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger were reluctant to support Israel in any way at the war's outset.  The U.S. initially turned down Israel's requests even though the U.S.S.R. was providing airlifts of military equipment to Egypt and Syria, the countries that had launched the 1973 war. President Biden still has to deal with some  in his party who would prefer a less "pro-Israel" stance but for now, in my view, just as he has done in the case of the Ukraine, President Biden has shown some real leadership. 

The Press

The war is just over two weeks old but we have already seen some examples of outrageous reporting.  The New York Times reported on an alleged Israeli attack on a Palestinian hospital just minutes after it  occurred, promptly blaming the Israelis and claiming that Israel had killed more than 500 civilians. As we now know, the attack was from an Islamic Jihad missile, aimed at Israel, that misfired. This has been verified by U.S., French, British, Israeli and even Canadian intelligence (the Canadians took the  longest time to confirm). The rocket landed in the hospital parking lot and killed less than 50 people.  So it wasn't Israel targeting a hospital, it wasn't an airstrike and the rocket, sent by the Islamic Jihad, killed less than 50 people and not 500. How does the New York Times get something like this so wrong?  And how do they repair the damage they caused? The NYT headlines and those of media outlets around the world led to Arab demonstrations around the world, in Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and other countries. We should expect more from the New York Times and other media outlets. Is it too much to ask for the truth?

The CBC in Canada continues to avoid calling Hamas members terrorists. Instead we get "fighters," "gunmen" or "militants." Surely those are the right labels for these types of attacks including burning people alive, rapes, hostage taking, beheadings, torture and other atrocities. Even though the UK lists  Hamas, officially, as a "terrorist organization," the BBC has, to date, refused to call Hamas members "terrorists," preferring "Hamas Fighters" and other labels. Needless to say, all of this is shameful.

There are a great many other points to cover over worldwide media issues, but I will leave this for another blog.  I would just say, for one, I have seen and read some outstanding speeches and articles over the past few weeks that have made the case for Israel very well, including some talks by Michal Cotler-Wunsh, Rabbi Cosgrove of the Park Avenue Synagogue and many others.  

I have also read about the backfire against the Harvard students who are upset that they have been "doxxed" and "outed" for making statements supportive of Hamas after its brutal attacks.  They claim  "freedom of speech."  But I really don't think that freedom of speech means anonymously supporting terrorist attacks and remaining free of any accountability or consequences. If these people were lauding other terrorist attacks (like 9/11) or promoting attacks against blacks, women, other minorities, etc., they would almost certainly be sanctioned, in some cases, dismissed from their jobs or they would face other consequences. Anyone who has any justification to offer for these obscene and outrageous crimes against civilians obviously has other motives.  

Other

Most international airlines have suspended their service to Israel, though El Al and a handful of other airlines continue to fly.  I was scheduled to fly to Canada this week but all Air Canada flights have been suspended at least until October 31, 2023. Looks like I will have to fly El Al to leave the country in early November (and change somewhere in Europe or the U.S.) to attend to different matters that require me to be in Canada. Will have to see what things look like at that point in time.

We supplied about 160 soldiers (one of whom was a family member) with Jachnun for Shabbat along with the usual accompaniments - hard boiled  eggs, grated tomato sauce, hot sauce etc.,  The soldiers  were thrilled.  They have food and are not short of supplies. But they are always happy to get something special, especially for Shabbat. Israel is a small country and the distances are manageable, so many parents make food deliveries to bases where there children are stationed - when that is possible. I won't give a detailed description of "Jachnun" other than to say that it is originally a Yemenite Jewish food, eaten on Shabbat, that has become a Shabbat morning delicacy for Israelis everywhere over the years.

Our drive to meet up with the soldiers was a bit nail-biting, even though it was uneventful, thankfully.

For now, Ra'anana has been relatively quiet. We have had several sirens go off, which require us to go to the "secured room" - a form of bomb shelter.  But I'm not aware of anything landing in Ra'anana so far. If Hezbollah joins the war, things may be very different.

Many businesses are still open around Israel but this war is very different from anything I have seen here since my first time coming to Israel in 1982. There is a real concern that this has been, and will be, one of the most difficult wars that Israel has fought. We are mourning for the more than 1400 victims of this Hamas massacre. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified and many funerals have not yet taken place. We are hoping and praying for the safety and well being of our soldiers and civilians, for the return of all of the hostages and for the full recovery of all those of who have been injured. We also hope for a speedy victory over Hamas with the lowest possible number of civilian casualties among Israelis and innocent Palestinians and a real opportunity to change the reality in this region when this is all over. I cannot say that I am too optimistic at this point but we have no alternative but to hope for the best.

Day 8 of War - Increasing Escalation

We are the midst of day eight of a war with Hamas/Gaza, which is a really a war with several parties, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the Palestinian Authority, even though parts of this war have not yet started.  I don't write this as a scare tactic but rather as my best assessment of where we are currently.

I am not going to recap in this blog the full extent of the massacre conduct by Hamas terrorists last week. I will say that over the past week, we have learned more and more details of the extensive planning that went into this attack with the clear aim of murdering civilians, taking hostages, looting and other outrageous acts. More than 1,300 Israelis were murdered and more than 3,000 were injured - all of this conducted by the official government that runs and controls the Gaza strip -  Hamas - which announced its actions as a "declaration of war" on Israel last week.

Since last week, Israel has launched extensive air raids on Gaza and has killed several of Hamas' senior military commanders. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops have been called up and many are massed at the border of Gaza, prepared to enter if and when they receive the order to do so.

Although Israel has warned residents of northern Gaza to leave and take shelter in the south - and has threatened to begin a ground option "at any time" - the extent and nature of the pending Israeli operation is yet to be determined. It is clearly a top priority for Israel to destroy the entire network of Hamas tunnels, weapons and communications facilities and everything else that Hamas has built up underground across Gaza.  How exactly Israel plans to do this remains to be seen. However, Israelis across the political spectrum are largely unified and view the complete destruction of Hamas' military capabilities as an imperative and the key war aim for Israel.

Other Fronts

As we know, Hamas is funded, trained and supported by Iran as well as Qatar and to some extent, Turkey.  Hamas also works closely with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon and parts of Syria.  Hezbollah has pledged, at least in some form, to support Hamas in this war.  It may well be that Hezbollah and Hamas have a detailed plan as to how and when Hezbollah will get involved.  Or perhaps Hezbollah is playing it by ear. 

Since the war  began, Hezbollah has been slowly increasing its involvement - just enough to avoid starting a full scale war. They have fired unmanned drones, missiles, rockets and other weaponry at Israel but in small quantities. Today, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks. In the morning, they fired an RPG that killed one  Israeli and  injured five others. Later this afternoon, they fired another RPG that killed two more civilians.  As I have been writing this blog, Hezbollah has fired 7 more RPGs at Israeli troops. Israel has answered these attacks with air strikes and other retaliatory measures, though still on a relatively restrained scale. However, at this point, it now seems to be a question of when, rather then if, Israel will be in a full scale war with Hezbollah and Lebanon. This may well erupt completely today or tomorrow.

Lebanon has a massive storehouse of missiles, drones, rockets and all types of other weaponry. Hezbollah has thousands of Hezbollah fighters gathered near the border and it seems very unlikely that they will  decide to stay out of the war. The US has two aircraft carriers in place, one in the Mediterranean off the coast of  Israel.  It is unclear what role the U.S. will play in a fight between Israel and Hezbollah, but President Biden's speeches suggest that the U.S. is likely to use its air power if Israel is attacked by Hezbollah/Iran.

To the east of Lebanon, thousands of troops are now ready in Syria, some from Syria and some from Iraq. So far, these troops have fired a few times towards Israel. There are suggestions that Hezbollah would rather attack Israel from the east - and have Syria serve as the war theatre rather than Lebanon. However, Israel is not buying this. If Israel is drawn into an all out war with Hezbollah, Israel will almost certainly flatten parts of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. That threat may be the one thing that is restraining Hezbollah so far.

Palestinian areas in Judea and Samaria including groups in Jenin are also threatening to get involved, all to help spread the army thinner. Right now, this does not seem to be a major threat but it may develop into one.

The major player behind all of this is clearly Iran, which is controlling the strings of everything that is going on. It is unclear whether Iran is interested in joining this war, though it has threatened to destroy Israel for many years.  The U.S. aircraft carriers may be a deterrent here but we simply don't know what Iran has planned as part of this war.

Stories of Bravery    

There are hundreds of stories of incredible acts of bravery that took place last week by police officers, soldiers, civilians and others. I wanted to mention a few.

In the kibbutz of Nir Am, the leader of the Kibbutz's Readiness Forces, Inbal Lieberman (26), received an early notification of an impending attack. She sprung into action, got all of the forces up and ready and developed an action plan and spread the forces (12 of them) to different stations across the Kibbutz. With her direction, the Kibbutz forces held off and killed waves of Hamas terrorists - until Israeli enforcements were later able to arrive and engage the remaining Hamas forces further. No civilians were killed at Nir Am, one of the few developments that suffered no civilian casualties and was not destroyed by the terrorists on Saturday October 7, 2023.

Another story involves Yair Golan, who is a former Knesset member for the left wing Meretz party. He is also a retired Major General in the IDF. He is  61. He received phone calls from different people early Sunday morning about kids who were trapped at the Nova party - and were reporting that Hamas terrorists were massacring people. Described as a "one-man army," Golan wasted no time. He grabbed a weapon, got into his car and sped to the area. In what sounds like scenes from a Mission Impossible or James Bond movie - he raced to locations provided to him by trapped party-goers, using their cell-phones. Along the way, he killed several Hamas terrorists. He loaded up his car, drove the kids to safety and went back to pick up other groups. It is unclear how many he brought to safety but the stories are simply astounding. Earlier this year, Golan was being called a "traitor" and "anarchist" by some Likud members since he opposed Netanyahu's attack on the judiciary. Now many of those same members are saluting his bravery and thanking him.

I also want to mention the story of Moran Tagdi, a police officer who took control of a dangerous situation involving a group of Hamas terrorists fighting from the rooftop of a two story complex in one of the Kibbutzim.  A group of officers and soldiers were involved in an intense gunfight with Hamas terrorists who had grenades, RPGs and other weapons. Tagdi came up with a plan - and told the other officers to continue to occupy the attention of the terrorists. She sent Whatsapp messages to her kids, telling them that she loved them, since she didn't know if she would survive. She took two fighters with her. They snuck around the rear of the building, made her way up the stairs and killed the three terrorists.  

There are hundreds of other stories but the stories I have cited caught my attention his week. Many stories didn't turn out as well. One Israeli commando apparently killed more than 40 Hamas terrorists himself over a period of three hours before he ran out of ammunition and was killed himself. Another group of Kibbutz Readiness forces tried to fight back but were hit with rocket launchers by Hamas and were all killed - and unable to stop Hamas pillaging, murder and hostage-taking in their kibbutz. More than 250 Israeli soldiers and more than 40 police officers were killed fighting back.  

It is evident that even in the face of a massive surprise invasion by terrorists intent on carrying out all kinds of heinous crimes, there were many points of light in the form of brave police officers, soldiers and civilians who acted quickly and saved lives.

Hostages

As you probably know, there are more than 140 hostages  in Gaza, of all different ages, taken by Hamas. We have very limited information  about them or their whereabouts. It may be that the IDF is trying to rescue some as we speak - though so far - Israel has only managed to retrieve some bodies of hostages who were either killed in Hamas captivity or whose bodies were taken by Hamas for negotiations. We have not heard about any efforts by the Red Cross or any other "humanitarian" organizations to try and release these hostages. President Biden met personally with family members of some of the hostages. While Israel always makes it a key priority to rescue its hostages, it is facing major challenges  in the  context of this current war.  I have to believe that the army is taking whatever steps it can but this is a very difficult  situation.

Personal

We appreciate the many warm messages we have received. Things are extremely stressful here. The war is threatening to spin out of control and grow into a much wider regional conflict. We are concerned for the safety of family members, friends, neighbours, community members and  others - and there is a great deal of uncertainty how long this might go on. It could be several months or longer.

Israel is determined to remove Hamas from Gaza as a threat and to ensure that Gaza cannot threaten Israel militarily.  It is also determined to capture or kill all of those who were responsible for the heinous terrorist acts committed last week. Both of those goals may take a while and may lead to months and months of fighting - while Israel may also have to fight one or two additional fronts at the same time.  

We hope and pray that this will all end quickly and successfully for Israel, however one might describe "success" in these circumstances, given what has taken place so far.

 

World Cup 2022: Canada, the Middle Eastern Teams and Israel. Go Canada!

It is a huge day  in Canadian Soccer history tomorrow.  The Canadian national soccer team will compete in the FIFA World Cup for only the second  time in Canadian history.  Canada's first time out was in 1986.  The  Canadian side failed to score a goal.  Instead, it let in  a total  of 5 goals and lost all three matches - to France, Hungary and the Soviet Union.  This time out, the Canadian team was quite impressive  over the course of the qualifying  rounds  and is hoping to have better success.  The first game will take place at 2 p.m. EST (9 p.m. Israel time) on Wednesday  November 23, 2022 versus Belgium, one of the tournament  favourites.   Canada will also play Croatia on Sunday November 27,  2022 at 11 a.m. EST and will finish its round of three on Thursday December 1, 2022 at 10 a.m. EST vs Morocco.  Team Canada has its work cut out for it, having to face Belgium and  Croatia, two very strong  sides.  It probably has a better shot against Morocco.   Hopefully, the Canadian side can  score some  historic  goals and surprise the world with a victory or two.  

Israel has only played in the FIFA World Cup once, in 1970.  Israel managed a 1-1 tie with Sweden, a 0-0 draw with Italy and lost 2-0 to Uraguay.  Italy wound  up losing that World Cup final 4-1 to Brazil, so a 0-0 draw for Israel against Italy was a pretty decent result.  More recently, it has been very hard for Israel to qualify since  it has to qualify through the European conference instead of the Middle East, where it belongs. 

For the 2022 World Cup, Israelis can only watch from the sidelines, though many are in Qatar attending the games live.  It is only a three hour flight to Qatar and  Tus Airlines is offering direct flights for  "only" $666 USD.  All of the games are being shown on Israeli national  TV on channel 11 and  feature some rather amusing  Israeli commentators.    Israeli  press has sent  delegates to the games to try and  speak to Iranian  fans and other fans from  different Arab and Muslim countries about  Israel and about their thoughts about Israel.  Some have refused to speak to the Israeli press, but a surprisingly large number  of Arab  and Muslim fans, even fans from Iran, have been willing to speak and say some nice things about Israel.

Israeli commentators covering the games were thrilled to see  Saudi Arabia shock Argentina  earlier today with an historic 2-1 victory.  One commentator said that "Saudi Arabia had  won a huge victory for the whole Middle East," and that this represented a "new dawn for Middle East soccer."  Commentators were equally effusive  about Tunisia's impressive scoreless draw versus Denmark, later in the day.  It will be interesting to hear what they have to say when Canada plays Morocco.

Watching all of these teams from the Middle  East play - including Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Iran and Qatar, Israelis are clearly convinced that their national team should be at this World Cup taking up one of those spots since they would almost  certainly be able to qualify if those were their primary obstacles.  Perhaps if the Abraham Accords continue to expand - and more countries sign full peace deals with Israel, FIFA will recalibrate its conferences and put Israeli in the proper  place, where it will have a much better chance of qualifying.

For now, Israelis will jealously watch the tournament and  hope that their chance to attend for a second time ever is not too far off in the future.  If Israel were to make it into the tournament one day, the game days would almost certainly be national holidays since the entire country would be  watching.  Even now, without Israel in the tournament, the TV stations continue to wish everyone  a "Happy World Cup Holiday."

As for  me, I am cheering for Canada in the 2022 World  Cup - hoping that  I will not only get to see Canada's first World Cup goal ever - but a bunch  more - enough to advance Canada to the next  round, even though their odds of  doing so are currently set at about 200-1.  Miracles can  happen.   Go Canada!

Bibi: My Story - A review

 

As you might know Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi") released his memoires in the midst of Israel's most recent election campaign.  He wrote the book himself in longhand over the course of the year and half or so of being the leader of the opposition in the Israeli Knesset.  I couldn't resist picking up a copy and comparing it to the other books on Bibi that I have read and reviewed.

As you might recall, I wrote this review of the book "Bibi" by Anshel Pfeffer and this review of Ben Caspit's book The Netanyahu Years.  I have not yet read any other reviews of Bibi's book but I did go back and look at my reviews of these other two books to compare.

For starters, I have to say that I quite enjoyed reading the book.  Netanyahu is a very skilled communicator.  The book flows well, is very readable and contains some very interesting stories and antecdotes.

I would say that it is structured like a legal argument rather than a true biography.  It is presented as an argument for Bibi's legacy.  Netanyahu asserts that he, almost singlehandedly, reformed the Israeli economy from a socialist leaning, old style economy to a modern capitalist society and moved Israel from a developing country to one that is fully developed and closing in on a AAA credit rating.  All of this as a result of Bibi's work as Israel's Finance Minister and subsequently as Prime Minister, where he continued the work that he had started.

A second theme throughout the book is that with Bibi's background, having obtained his undergraduate degree at MIT, he was keenly aware of the power of technology and made technological development a priority throughout the course of his tenure as Israel's Prime Minister, leading to Israel's recognition as a true technological powerhouse.

A third theme is that the key to Middle East peace is bypassing the Palestinians, since they aren't really interested in a deal anyways and developing peace with other Arab countries first as a precondition to resolving the whole of the middle east conflict.  I will come back to this shortly.

A fourth theme is that the focus of Bibi's foreign policy efforts since 1999 or even earlier has been to see Iran as the real threat and focus on containment of Iran and prevention of the Iranian development of a nuclear bomb.

A fifth theme is to raise the profile of his father, his wife Sara, his sons Yair and Avner and brush away or deflect any criticism of any of them.  From the descriptions of Sara that Netanyahu has provided, it is hard to imagine a kinder, more perfect, more gracious, more supportive spouse than Sara.  But,of course, perhaps this is all in response to the various other Bibi books including those by Caspit and Pfeffer that strongly suggest otherwise.

So how does Bibi fare with these arguments?

Interestingly, he starts off by saying that a good lawyer, when appearing in court, often leads by diffusing the strongest arguments that opponents might present.  Bibi's first parts of the book deal with the tragic death of his brother Yoni in the course of the Entebbe raid, his own academic accomplishments, which are indeed impressive, and his analysis of the history of Israel, Zionism and the importance of a strong, militarily capable, home for the Jewish people.  

Bibi puts forward arguments for the importance of a strong free market economy and traces his Zionism back to the Zionism of Jabotinsky and his successors, many of whom became Likud party members, as opposed to the more socialist bent of the Labor party that dominated Israeli political life for so many years.  

Much of this analysis is cogent and convincing.  But these are certainly the strongest points that Bibi would have to put forward and they are what he tackles first.  That might be due to chronology but I note that he starts with his brother Yoni and then goes back in time.  This is a particularly deliberate choice, which partially responds to some of the criticisms made by Pfeffer and Caspit about the cynical use of Yoni's legacy by Bibi and his family.

As the book moves on, a few things became particularly interesting.

One thought I had was that a great deal of the book is "Bibi's spin" on different historical events irrespective of how accurate that spin might be.  The other thought I had was what was left out as opposed to what was included.  This is certainly not a "comprehensive" book even though it is 650 pages long.  

Certainly Bibi's contributions to the change in Israel's economy are significant. Israel has become a booming modern country with skyscrapers galore.  At the same time, the cost of living has skyrocketed, the gap between the wealthy and the poor has increased dramatically, and wealth has become ever more concentrated in the hands of very few.  No comments from Bibi about these issues, other than some platitudes that suggest that everyone is now better off and would not have been if Israel had followed different policies.

Many political figures, industry leaders and others contributed to the change in Israel's economic structure and I am somewhat skeptical that Bibi's role is as singularly definitive as he asserts.

Having read many other books about how Israel has become a technological superpower, I find it very difficult to give Bibi as much credit as he would like to take in this area. For example, steps taken by Shimon Peres to develop Israel's Air Force and other military technology were dramatic as were many taken by Ehud Barak.  Moreover, many different private companies as well as private-public consortiums have focused on technological development.  Although Bibi clearly appreciates all of these developments, I find his efforts to take credit for them less convincing.

Bibi's recount of his dealings with the Palestinians is a whole different story.

I found Bibi's analysis of dealings with President Bill Clinton quite interesting.  Although he recognizes that Clinton was well intentioned, he accuses of Clinton of buying the "Palestine first" narrative and focusing all of his efforts on persuading Israel to accept a deal rather than pushing the Palestinians.  Here, there is a reasonable argument that Bibi's version is sound.  Even Clinton in his later writings noted that despite all of the concessions that he was able to wrangle out of the Israeli side, Arafat was still not prepared to accept the deal.  And that is Bibi's thesis, that Palestinian rejectionism is, primarily, what has led to the current situation.  That being said, this does not, in my view, mean that the resolution of Palestinian issues is of a much lower level of importance, even if it is extremely difficult to attain.

Bibi also spends a great deal of time on his relationship with President Obama.  Bibi is somewhat more deferential than I had expected, particularly given the relationship between these two.  He points out Obama's decision to "recalibrate" the relationship in the Middle East after first becoming President by visiting a host of Arab countries but not Israel.  He also discusses the failed policy of bolstering the "Arab Spring" and the disaster that occurred in Egypt when Morsi took over.  That being said, Bibi outlines some of the differences of opinion and concludes that Obama was probably the "toughest opponent he had ever faced."  In fact, in reading some of the discussions and arguments that Bibi recalls having with President Obama, it is not clear to me Bibi's position is the more convincing one.

Bibi goes out of his away to try and explain away all of the different incidents in which he was accused of trying to embarrass and humiliate President Obama.  Here, I didn't find him that convincing.  Although he claims that it was all about the Iranian threat, the Israeli interests and his commitment to remaining bi-partisan, I just don't think that meshes with the manner in which events really played out.  He highlights that his differences with Obama were all about "POLICY" (which he puts in capital letters).  But in my view, other historical accounts are far more convincing - suggesting that Bibi deliberately set out to humiliate Obama and tilt Israel policy towards the Republicans. 

Moving on to Trump, I would say that, reading between the lines, Bibi is much less complimentary of Trump.  Although Trump was a "committed friend" who was willing to give in to Bibi on a whole range of issues including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan and putting together a proposed peace deal with the Palestinians without any Palestinian input, there is little true respect shown for Trump, perhaps deservedly show.

The one area where Bibi does show appreciation for Trump is in the development and negotiation of the Abraham accords, though the book suggests that these are all really Bibi's creations, which he was able to foist onto Trump as a priority.  On the other hand, Bibi claims that Trump had promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over much of the West Bank and has some very harsh words for Trump over the U.S. decision to back out of this commitment, even though some have argued that this was all used as a smoke screen to make progress with the UAE and Bahrain.

Ultimately, even with Trump, Bibi still had to deal with the U.S. (and worldwide) position that Israel needs to come to a political solution with the Palestinians.  Whether it is the Clinton Plan, the Obama Plan, the Saudi Plan, the Trump Plan, or anyone else's, if it is to be a viable solution that also protects Israeli demographic interests, there will need to be a Palestinian State, or some form of separation of the two peoples, with a Palestinian territory being the one that can address any Palestinian refugee claims.  

But Bibi has no time for this argument.  I was waiting to see what he might outline, in the book, as his proposed solution.  What is the Bibi plan? Perhaps, I thought, he was a "Jordan is Palestine" proponent (given that more than 70% of the Jordanian population is Palestinian).  No, he explicitly rules that out as dangerous in no uncertain terms.  Maybe he supports a population transfer and/or incentives to the Palestinians to relocate?  No suggestion of that as a policy, even though he is now entering a coaltion government with 14 coalition members from the Religious Zionist Party that support that approach.  Two state supporter?  Well even though he accepted that in principle after much arm twisting from past U.S. Presidents, he leaves little doubt that he opposes a two state solution in this book.  

Ultimately, the best I could discern, to use hockey terminology - his preference would be to "rag the puck" (i.e. just to kill time).  He favours a continuation of the current status quo with only minor changes to the way things have been going with the hope that one day, the problem will just go away.  This just does not seem like a viable long term solution.  If Israel moves to annex large amounts of Judea and Samaria, as now requested by the Religious Zionist coalition, we will be closer to an apartheid type of regime, unless when Israel annexes these territories it also grants full and equal citizenship for all of the people living in the territories irrespective of religious background.  If it simply de facto annexes these areas, Israel will continue on with a smouldering situation, trying to control a hostile population of millions of Palestinians.  Ultimately, Bibi fails to propose any type of viable solution for the current conflict with the Palestinians and even castigates all of those leaders who have tried to resolve it.

That is not to say that there is an ideal solution.  There is a great deal of historical truth to Bibi's assessments of Arafat and Abbas (both as two-faced liars and terror supporters) as well as his assessments of past U.S. Presidents including Clinton and Obama (both of whom naively thought that the Palestinian leadership would agree to a deal).  However, there is also something to the thesis argued by Caspit and Pfeffer.  Bibi had a golden opportunity with a sympathetic U.S. President in Trump, a powerful domestic political position and even a solid relationship with Putin and other European leaders, while at the same time, developing ties with a range of other Arab countries.  He could have tried to use this position of great strength to come up with a viable solution, even if it would be difficult to sell to the Palestinians.  Perhaps he could have obtained worldwide support to impose a solution.  There is little to show, from Bibi's account, that he made any such efforts or that he has any vision that he is willing to share about how to resolve the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

On the Iranian policy side, Bibi spends quite a bit of time dealing with his battle with President Obama on the COJPA and his fight to stop the agreement or have it shredded.  He outlines many of the flaws with the agreement and it is hard to argue with him that the agreement would have done anything other than delay Iranian nuclear armaments by 10-15 years.  He characterizes this whole issue as existential, perhaps one of the most existential threats that Israel has ever faced.

However, now that he "succeeded" in shredding the agreement, what did he accomplish?  Trump refused to bomb Iran's nuclear program or even threaten to do so.  Iran is moving ahead with its program at breakneck speed.  Perhaps Bibi is simply laying the groundwork for justification of a pending Israeli military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.  I guess we will see.  But from what I have read from various sources, there are a whole host of concerns about that option.  It may lead to large, wholesale war that would cause enormous loss of life in Israel.  The U.S. may oppose this type of attack - as might a range of allies.  Israel may not even have the full military capability to reach these underground nuclear sites and destroy all of them.  And ultimately, this may only set the program back by a short period of time and may lead Iran to redouble its efforts.

Overall, there may well have been other options, including different approachs with Obama and Trump that may have led to a better deal that would have actually stopped the program, with a combination of threats and incentives.

With respect to Bibi's attempts to rehabilitate the reputations of his family members, including Yair and Sara, in particular, his words just don't sound credible, especially given the multitude of stories about incidents involving these two.  For example, he dismisses the fact that Sara pled guilty to criminal charges by arguing that it was all trumped up and the plea bargain was done to end the matter and avoid any further publicity and hassle.  Here, again, the actual facts suggest otherwise.

Bibi devotes a short part of the book to dismissing all of the charges against him as "trumped up," "sewn together" and purely political.  I guess it remains to be seen what will happen with his trial.  Suffice it to say that the initial evidence was deemed as so overhwelming against Bibi at the preliminary stages of these proceedings, that even his political allies refused to dismiss the charges against him.  Of course his new governing coalition may find other ways to end Bibi's trial but that won't really prove that the charges were ill conceived in the first place.  But getting back to Bibi's initial comments, he took the absolute weakest part of his legacy and buried it near the end of his book with a tone of dismissal and indignation, something that legal counsel might do with an argument for which they don't really have a great response.

One other thought I had was that Bibi says very little, throughout this book, of the compromises that he has had to make with the ultra-orthodox to remain in power.  Over Bibi's tenure as president, he has successively provided larger and larger amounts of money to the ultra-orthodox and has granted them with greater and greater power over a range of aspects of Israeli life.  

Although Bibi argues so passionately for the power of education and particularly scientific education, he has presided over the growth of an ever increasing number of religious institutions that refuse to teach basic secular subjects.  Although he argues for the Republican philosophy of "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps," working hard and saving your money, he has presided over a massive growth in the number of Haredi families that look to the state for their income and remain outside of the labour force.  And although he appeals to many aspects of secular culture, including literature and theatre, his deals with co-coalitionists have led to a gradual erosion in the number of public performances and presentations that include an equal gender balance and have led to ever increasing rifts with liberal Jewish communities inside and outside of Israel, including rifts with non-Orthodox Jewish communities which will surely be exacerbated under this new governing coalition.  

Bibi has very little to say about the divisiveness that he has created in Israeli society.  Although Israel has always been a country in which 2 people have 3 different opinions, the ascerbic nature of public discourse has increased exponentially, fuelled by some of Bibi's political campaigns.  He does take credit at points in his book for tactics used in this regard.

Ultimately, this book is well written, entertaining and filled with selected but interesting antecdotes.

But I have many doubts about its veracity and I have arguments with many of the different conclusions that Bibi draws.   I guess Bibi can take notes over the coming four years in preparation for adding a few more chapters.  I suppose that the jury is still out on his legacy.  Perhaps we will have a bit of a better picture when his political life finally comes to an end.

Israel, the U.S. and Iran - Rosh Hashanah 5773

As Jews around the world prepare to celebrate Rosh Hashanah  - the Jewish New Year of 5773, it is probably fair to say that many of us have significant concerns about the coming year and in particular the situation that Israel is currently facing.

Events throughout the region over the past year have demonstrated yet again that Israel resides in a very unstable and dangerous neighbourhood.  The emergence of an Islamic government in Egypt, with its volatile and often hostile rhetoric has led to a heightened level of security on Israel’s southern border and accompanying sense of deep concern.

Events  unfolding in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and other parts of the Middle East have all reinforced the idea that Israel really is an island of democracy and western values in a sea of dark, hostile regimes.  As Caroline Glick recently suggested in the Jerusalem Post, many liberals held the optimistic view that these regimes would be “liberated” and would choose freedom in their new transformed governing structures.  But this hope has not turned to reality.  In fact, even Turkey, a country that once was the example of a true Muslim democracy, seems headed in the other direction.  For all the talk of an “Arab Spring” in Egypt, there is no sign that Egypt will be emerging from winter weather any time soon even though summer and early fall temperatures may regularly pass 40 C.

Of course, above all else, the Israeli government, the Israeli press and much of the world media have been consumed with the ongoing threat posed by Iran and the best way for Israel to address it.

There is no easy solution here.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been pushing for a “red line” threat to be presented by the world to Iran, beyond which the world community would take military action to prevent Iran from realizing its nuclear ambitions. 

On the one hand, Israel has every reason to be concerned.  Iranian leader Ahmadinejad has vowed to destroy Israel and has repeatedly called for its elimination.  He has called Israel “a cancer” on the body of the world that needs to be removed.  Iran has certainly shown in the past that it is not averse to suicidal missions that could result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of its citizens if this is viewed as justifiable.  Should Israel simply dismiss his rhetoric as that of a madman?  This could be a very dangerous miscalculation, as history has shown.  This is a very real, existential issue for Israel.

On the other hand, it is not clear that Israel would be able to carry out a successful attack on all of Iran’s nuclear facilities at this time, even with U.S. help, if such help was forthcoming.  This does not appear to be the same type of situation that Israel faced in dealing with Iraq’s nuclear reactor in Osirak, Iraq in 1981 or the alleged attack by Israel on the Syrian nuclear project in September 2007.  Iran supposedly has many different sites, spread out throughout the country and hidden deep below the ground.  These sites have purportedly been designed to repel traditional air attacks.

Moreover, if Israel were successful, it is far from clear that such success would translate into a significant delay in Iran’s nuclear capabilities.  Perhaps Israel would gain a year or two or more, but Iran might also redouble its efforts with increased aid from sympathetic countries.  As well, Israel could face massive reprisal attacks from a range of sources.  Israel had a very difficult time defending itself from rocket attacks in the 2006 war with Lebanon.  This time around, the attacks could be far more severe.   

Radio talk shows have filled the airwaves in Israel with discussions of possible consequences.  One radio show I was listening to was hosting former Israeli generals to discuss competing estimates of potential Israeli casualties in the event of an attack on Iran.  The estimates ranged from 300-400 Israelis killed in a “highly successful attack and defence strategy” to tens of thousands in a less successful operation.

Another radio show appealed to the black humour of the Israeli public which is often necessary for those of us living here.  Callers were asked to come up with an appropriate code name for the eventual military operation to be undertaken.  This show was a few months ago, just after the holiday of Purim (which is said to have taken place in ancient Persia (i.e. Iran).  Callers were suggesting names like “Operation Avenge Esther,” “Operation Crush the Hamentaschen” or “Operation Ra’ashan” (a noise maker used on Purim to blot out the name of the evil villain of the story, Haman).  Even though the callers were trying to be humourous, one could still sense the readily apparent level of unease.

More recently, much has been made of the apparent rift between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Obama, particularly over the very issue of whether to proceed with an attack on Iran.  Many have suggested that Netanyahu is openly interfering with the current U.S. election campaign by attempting to call attention to President Obama’s failure to give Israel a green light (at least publicly) to proceed with an operation against Iran.  Indeed, Netanyahu often seems to be echoing the sentiments of Republican candidate Mitt Romney who claimed that President Obama has “thrown Israel under the bus.”

But President Obama’s record  vis a vis Israel is not nearly as negative as one might believe from listening to the words of Prime Minister Netanyahu or Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.  In many respects, U.S.-Israeli cooperation in military, economic and technological spheres is the strongest it has ever been.   While it is somewhat disconcerting that President Obama has not visited Israel during his first term in office (even while visiting Egypt), it is far from clear that the U.S. President must be seen as supporting every policy of the current Israeli Prime Minister to be viewed as a close friend and ally.  In fact, quite a number of Israelis do not agree with many of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies.  Many Israelis feel that Prime Minister Netanyahu has gone out of his way to try embarrass President Obama and to push for the election of Romney.

While some Israelis might accept Prime Minister Netanyahu’s assessment of President Obama’s views of Israel, it appears that American Jews are remaining supportive of President Obama.  According to a Gallup poll released this week, some 70% of American Jews are expected to vote for President Obama in the upcoming elections.  While this may signify the fact that American Jews overwhelmingly support more liberal positions on a range of social issues – and these are the issues that dominate an American presidential election campaign, it may also indicate that American Jews still believe that Obama will be fine for Israel in the long run.  Many Israelis (and American Jews) would count Democratic President Bill Clinton as one of the best friends that Israel ever had in the White House.  On the other hand, Republican President Ronald Reagan was a tremendous friend of the Saudi Arabian regime, perhaps more so than with Israel.  It is far from clear that President Bush’s policies (either one of the two presidents) left Israel in a safer, more secure or more stable situation in the Middle East. 

Hopefully, despite all of the posturing by Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Israeli-U.S. relationship will continue to be a close, strategic relationship between friends, irrespective of who wins the White House in November.  And hopefully, these friends will continue to work together on an urgent basis to come up with the best way of preventing Iran from fulfilling its nuclear ambitions.  It may well be that military leaders have a detailed plan for a pending attack that will meet all of its objectives successfully.  Or perhaps, there will be other ways to achieve this result.

That’s a lot to hope for at Rosh Hashanah, along with our hopes for peace throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world.  But I do believe that we have to be optimistic, even while being realistic and being prepared for a whole range of possible scenarios. 

A happy and healthy New Year to all.  Shana Tova.