War Update - 24th Day of War in Israel

We are in the 24th day of war - a war that was started by Hamas on October 7th, 2023, with a surprise attack on more than 20 communities near the Gaza border.  The Hamas terrorists murdered more than 1,400 Israelis - men, women, children, babies - in gruesome fashion. People were burned alive, cut into pieces, decapitated, tortured. The horrific stories are shocking. Much of it was captured on video by Hamas terrorists who were using their cell phones or Go Pro cameras to record what they were doing. In some cases, they took cell phones from victims - and recorded torture and murder scenes on the victim's cell phones - in several cases, posting these videos to Facebook live or other social media.

This was all accompanied by a "declaration of war" on Israel from Hamas,  which runs and controls the Gaza strip.

What would any country do in response?  Ask for a cease fire?  I don't think so.

As of now, Israel reports that more than 1,400 Israelis have been killed and more than 240 have been kidnapped and are being held in Gaza.  More than 4,600 Israelis have been injured.

Israel has responded in force to this declaration of war. It has called up more than 300,000 reserve soldiers, mobilized its army on its northern, eastern and southern borders and moved ahead with a military plan to defeat Hamas.  Initially, Israel used its air force to attack a range of targets.  It is now moving ahead with ground invasion of some sort.

I cannot dispute that this is a disaster for Gaza and its civilians.  And it is not the first such disaster.  Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, the Hamas regime has initiated 5 rounds of fighting prior to 2023.  These battles have seen Gaza fire rockets and missiles at Israeli  civilians, inviting Israel to respond with air attacks and other military manoeuvres.  Nothing has been gained by Hamas in any of  these attacks other than Hamas being able to terrorize its population into allowing Hamas to continue to maintain power in Gaza.  And of course growing the massive personal wealth of several Hamas leaders.

Meanwhile, the world has poured money into Gaza.  With all of that money, one might have thought that Gaza would build infrastructure, industry and other necessities and improve the standards of living for Gazans. Instead, the vast majority of the money was used to stockpile rockets, to build a vast underground network of tunnels and to amass other weapons, all while maintaining the poverty and squalid conditions for the residents of Gaza. At the same time, the Hamas leaders including Khaled Meshal, Dr. Musa Abu Marzook, Ismail Haniyeh and others have attained great personal wealth. 

This Hamas leadership is dedicated to nothing less than the destruction of Israeli.  It is not interested in a "two-state solution" or some other arrangement that results in peaceful coexistence. It runs Gaza with an iron fist and routinely executes suspected collaborators, political opponents, homosexuals and others.

That is the regime that has declared war on Israel. At this point, I would say that there seems to be near unanimity, even on the left, in Israel that this war must be fought until Hamas is destroyed or unconditionally surrenders.  

Contrary to the suggestions from many columnists in the New York Times, such as the column by Megan Stack on October 31, 2023, this is not about Israeli "revenge" or the random murder of civilians.  There is no way that Israel would agree to any kind of cease fire now without changing the current reality.  Not only would a cease fire mean more attacks from Hamas in weeks, months or some other time period, it would leave Israel in a state of constant and ongoing danger, in which civilians can be attacked  at any time.

At this point, I think Israel's war aims will include a number of key points.  For one thing, and near the  top of the list, Israel must insist on the return of all of the hostages held by Hamas - whether through military operations or negotiations.  Although there are apparently some ongoing discussions, to this point, only 2 hostages  have been released and one was freed by Israeli forces yesterday, in a daring but successful operation.  Her photo is included in this blog, above.

Secondly, Israel intends to destroy the vast majority of the underground tunnels - including the stockpiles of weaponry in these tunnels, the communication systems, the command centres and other facilities.  This will not be an easy task, especially since many of these tunnels are under mosques, hospitals and other civilian buildings.  For example, the largest Hamas command centres  are located at  or under the Shifa hospital, where more than 30,000 Hamas guerillas are apparently hiding.  One way or another, I don't see how this war will end until those command centres are completely destroyed.

Israel  also intends to capture, kill or otherwise neutralize most of the key Hamas leadership.  Some are living outside of Israel.  Their time will come later.  But for now, Israel will need to hunt down those terrorist leaders who are situated in Gaza.

So short of a lengthy war, is any type of cease fire possible? Well, if Hamas were to surrender unconditionally, the war would end.  This was the goal sought  (and obtained) by the allies in WWII.  Although the scale is much smaller, and I don't buy the propaganda lines that "Hamas are Nazis" - Hamas is nevertheless a terrorist organization, (like ISIS) intent on committing the worst type of atrocities.  Hamas must be destroyed and removed from the region.  Israel cannot end the war and continue to have a militarized Hamas on its doorstep.

I hope that the army has a proper plan that it can implement to attain these objectives.  I don't think Israel has too many other alternatives.  So this might be a lengthy war.

Worldwide Reaction

As you know, the worldwide reaction has been astonishing.   All kinds of people coming out of the woodwork arguing that the massacres and crimes perpetrated by Hamas were legitimate forms of resistance.  It is a sick world indeed if that is your  definition of legitimate resistance.

We are reminded that there are only about 15.3 million Jews in the world and more than 2 billion Muslims.   There are 50 Muslim majority countries and  one  Jewish country.  Just from sheer numbers alone, it is no surprise that we are not very popular.

But in many places, we have also seen the massive hypocrisy of some "progressives."  On campuses across the U.S. and Canada - and in many other places around the world, so called "progressives" are chanting slogans like "Free Palestine" which is essentially a call for the destruction of Israel.  We have seen  signed letters  supporting Hamas actions. We are seeing professors (even in disciplines totally unrelated to Mideastern studies) attacking Israel.  By openly supporting terrorist groups and rationalizing terrorist atrocities, these groups are, effectively, openly endorsing the same type of violence against Jews everywhere. It is simply shocking. And it is resulting in security incidents and concerns for Jews all over the world.

To his credit, U.S. President has withstood this "progressive" pressure so far and has stood with Israel.  By sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, the U.S. has maintained a strong deterrent against the prospect of Hezbollah or Iran widening the war and turning it into a full-blown regional conflict.  The U.S. has also fought off U.N. attempts to enact anti-Israel security council resolutions at the U.N.  I am not sure that President Biden will maintain the resolve to continue supporting Israel until Israel has defeated Hamas but I certainly hope he will. To do otherwise would render all of his efforts to date meaningless.

Other Fallout

Even as the war progresses, the political situation in Israel is tenuous. Prime Minister Netanyahu spent years portraying himself as the only leader who could maintain security and deterrence in Israel. In one series of election ads, he argued that he was uniquely able to stay on top of intelligence and "sniff out" any potential security threats even  before they could occur.  Just a few election cycles ago, Bibi used giant billboards of himself standing alongside Putin and Trump -  his "friends."  

Even as Russia attacked Ukraine and many Israelis urged the government to take a more pro-Ukraine stance, Bibi's policy was to placate Russia and stay as neutral as possible. At this point, however, Putin has completely turned against Israel and Russia is working closely with the Iranians, who fund and support Hamas. Bibi's relationship with Turkish leader Erdogan has fared even worse. Erdogan has been spouting some of the most anti-Israel venom of any leader in the world.  He even rivals the Iranian leadership in that category.

Oddly enough, Bibi's closest friend has been President Biden. This after all of Bibi's efforts to turn Israel into a  partisan issue in the  U.S., by attacking Obama, supporting Trump and other Republicans - and interfering outright in U.S. elections.  All of those efforts by Bibi have been exposed as a failed policy.  Some of Bibi's current cabinet ministers launched vicious attacks on President Biden and his government prior to the war. A few have since apologized. But long term, it is a disastrous policy to disregard the Democrats and cultivate only the Republican party for pro-Israel support - especially looking at long term U.S.  demographics.

Aside from foreign policy issues, Prime Minister Netanyahu is embroiled in all kinds of political issues at home. He  put together a coalition of far right ultra religious parties and idealogues who had limited practical experience and even less expertise. As a result, when this war started, Bibi's government was  exposed as one with few, if any, capable ministers. For most Israelis, the government seems to  have gone AWOL.  There are few ministers appearing on TV or taking  visible action in the circumstances.  Despite all of the pressing needs, the government just does not seem to be responding to the situation.

The army is responding, for  sure.  But that seems to be the only competent organization currently functioning.  

In one of his first press conferences since the war started - in which Bibi agreed to take questions, he refused to take any direct responsibility for the current war. Later that night, at about 1 a.m., he doubled down and sent out a tweet attacking the heads of the army, intelligence, and other organizations - as being the ones responsible for this whole debacle. The reaction was unprecedented. Even ministers in his own government called for him to retract his venomous tweet and apologize. The next morning, Bibi deleted the tweet and apologized. There were statements made that "should not have been said," he proclaimed.  Although he apologized, the damage was done and it will be very hard, if not impossible, for Bibi to fix this situation.  

Obviously, it is hard to predict how and when the war will end. Perhaps a very successful outcome will somehow save Bibi's political future and  legacy though given the damage that Israel has suffered, it is hard to imagine that any outcome will be viewed as a great victory.  I would think that if there were an election today, Bibi would suffer a massive defeat.

Women in the Military

Under the current far right government that Bibi assembled, there were calls from some of his coalition partners to limit the number of women  in combat roles in the Israeli military and to prevent women  from being accepted into certain units.  

But various articles in the Israeli media have been written about so many heroic efforts by women in combat roles fighting off Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 and at other times throughout the war.  As one commentator  noted in Yediot Ahronot, the events of this war will  almost certainly put an end to any discussions suggesting that women are unsuited for combat at the highest levels.

Judea and Samaria - the "West Bank"

Part of the Hamas plan, apparently, was to trigger the involvement of Palestinians from Judea and  Samaria to  jump into the war and open up a new front. Although there have been fights with Palestinians, particularly in Jenin, this type of full Palestinian involvement has not materialized.  

At the same time, there have been reports,  in Israeli media of Jewish residents of these areas attacking Arab  Palestinians.  Obviously, in my view, this is totally unacceptable.  It must be condemned in the strongest language and the Israeli police and military forces must take all required steps to stop these attacks and arrest any perpetrators.

This is a major challenge with far right activists like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in the  government but hopefully Israel will wind up with a more balanced  and sane government once this war ends.  

Other

On a personal note, we have been lucky so far that there have been very few sirens in Ra'anana and few if any missiles have actually landed in our city.  Many other cities have had to  grapple with much more  difficult  situations.

But the overall situation in Israeli is very challenging  and stressful right now.  When asked how they are doing, a common response from Israelis these days is "the same as everyone else, I guess..."

We are worried about the safety of more than 240 hostages, about our soldiers, and about civilians everywhere. We have a great deal of uncertainty as to whether Hezbollah and Lebanon will enter the war and maybe even Iran. And we have no clear anticipated resolution that will lead to peace and security for  Israel and for the region.

I am planning to fly to Toronto for a short period later this week.  El Al is now almost the only airline flying regularly out of Tel-Aviv, so I will have to fly to Europe or the U.S. on El Al and then transfer to Toronto.

This is very difficult with family members in the army, ongoing missile attacks, and so much uncertainty. But maybe things will change dramatically soon and we will see an end to this war sooner  than anticipated.  I am not particularly hopeful but it can't hurt to try and be optimistic.

  

War in Israel - Day 16 - Update

We are in day 16 of war and there are no signs that we are anywhere near any kind of cease-fire.  On the contrary, there are significant signs that this war will expand very soon.  It is evident that Israel is fighting a war against Iran, to this point, against Iran's proxies - Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian-based fighters and now, the Houthis, in Yemen.  Many different articles, including articles in Reuters and other places (often pro-Hamas) have quoted Iranian sources as all but admitting that Iran is pulling the strings and controlling the extent to which Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others, will be involved.  

Iran has stated many times, for years, that it would like to destroy Israel and plans to so. To that end, it has armed Hamas, Hezbollah and other forces, and worked on developing nuclear weapons, with the primary intention of carrying out attacks against Israel.  If Iran views this war as the opportunity it has been waiting for, it may join the war directly. That would almost certainly mean fighting directly against the U.S. On the optimistic side, it is far from clear at this point that Iran is ready for or interested in that entanglement.

With that opening, I would like to cover a few different areas in the limited scope of this blog. Call it news or items that jump out at me since I could not possibly write this as a comprehensive blog. Even in non-war times, the task would be Herculean.  In times of war it would be impossible.

Fall Out from October 7 - Simchat Torah Massacre 

As of now, the Israeli government reports that Hamas and its allies are holding 212 hostages in Gaza - the majority of whom are civilians including young children, senior citizens, men and women of all ages.  Some soldiers are also being held captive.  More than 1,300 Israelis were killed in the attacks on October 7, the vast majority of whom were civilians.  More than 3,000 were injured. More than 300 are still in the hospital and at least 50 of those are in serious or critical condition.

Since October 7, extensive information has emerged about what took place, about Hamas'  preparations, plans, weaponry and goals. The details are often too gruesome to recount. Victims were burned alive, often tied together with wires before being set on fire. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified. Infants were murdered and in many cases decapitated. Whole families were tortured and then murdered. Civilians of all different ages were murdered in horrendous fashion.

Investigators found Hamas instruction booklets carried by many of the terrorists with detailed plans.  The plans specifically noted where the schools, nurseries and  synagogues were with instructions for  murdering everyone in those places. These Hamas terrorists also brought with them extra blood supplies, food provisions, medicines and sufficient provisions to last for one to two months. They also brought large quantities of captogen (fenethylline), a psychostimulant, which is mainly produced in Syria, a drug that was also used by members of ISIS. The plans that Hamas terrorists were carrying included instructions for massacring civilians in Ashqelon and Kiryat Gat.

This mass terrorist attack has devasted most of the Israeli communities that were situated near the Gaza strip. Whole neighbourhoods were destroyed, the homes were burned down, everything nearby was set aflame or destroyed. The survivors have been placed in hotels in different places in Israel - or with other communities or Israelis in different places. Israelis across the country have organized groups to help with supplies, fundraising, food and every other possible type of help.  

Israel's Reaction So Far

How is a country to react to this type of attack? Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, Gaza has been controlled and run by Hamas, a terrorist organization, which acts as the Gaza government. Hamas has dedicated itself to building up weaponry, tunnels, military forces and it has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. It has fostered hatred of Jews in its schools, training camps and throughout the Gaza strip. This is our neighbour.

Israel has fought several wars with Gaza during which Gaza has launched rocket attacks at civilian targets across Israel and targeted Israeli civilians in every way possible. On each occasion, world leaders have called for "restraint" and "proportionality" while Israel has tried to get to the source of these attacks by going after Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces - while trying to minimize civilian casualties. That is a challenging task since Hamas sets up its headquarters and its munitions depots in densely populated centres including schools, mosques, hospitals and underground beneath residential areas.

But the scope of this 2023 attack is on an entirely different scale. More than 1,400 people killed in an  attack in Israel is an unimaginable number. On a per-capita basis, this would be the equivalent of an attack on the U.S. from a neighbouring country that killed more than 40,000 people (in gruesome  ways) in several different cities - and injured more than 90,000.   

It is also worth noting that at the time Hamas carried out these attacks on Israeli communities, it announced that it was "declaring war" on Israel. Contrary to some reports you may have read, Israel did not just go ahead and launch a war on Hamas. Rather, it responded to Hamas.

When a country is faced with a murderous, terrorist regime next door, that carries out these types of attacks, it should be fairly evident that there are few alternatives. Israel has no alternative now but to fight to destroy and overthrow the Hamas regime, much in the same way the Allies had to rid the world of the murderous Nazi regime or the Japanese leadership during World War II. Israel will target the entire Hamas leadership, its military infrastructure, its tunnel systems and its military arsenals. I think it is unlikely that this war will end until the vast majority of this has all been destroyed. Anything short will leave Israel fighting these wars over and over and over, every two or three years.

What are the alternatives?  Around the world, some Hamas allies, supporters and other apologists are calling  for an immediate "cease fire."  What would that mean?  It would pretty much be a surrender for  Israel and would allow Hamas to rebuild its arsenal and prepare for the next attack. This is not happening. Israel cannot function with this type of regime continuing to threaten and carry out attacks repeatedly.

Political  Solution?  There isn't really one at this time. Although many Israelis are hoping that it will be possible to reach a political deal with the Palestinians, especially those currently living in Judea and  Samaria (the "West Bank"), there is no possibility of reaching a deal with a terrorist group like Hamas, dedicated to destroying Israel. Ultimately, the regime will need to be replaced with some other form of government, with careful controls to keep the area demilitarized - and a build up of economic infrastructure and opportunity, rather than military infrastructure. Alternatives might include another Palestinian leadership, some type of international coalition or some other arrangements. If the Palestinian people in Gaza are able to install a government that is focused on economic, health care, infrastructure and other initiatives, rather then on destroying Israel, there may be a chance for future, peaceful co-existence.

Since 2005, Israel and Egypt have both controlled different parts of the border to Gaza. Palestinian advocates are constantly arguing that Israel should "open its borders" and let Gazans into Israel to work, travel etc., But look at what happened now. For one thing, Hamas has spent years building up weaponry, rockets, all kinds of military equipment, while planning its attacks. Nothing about what Hamas has done since 2005, and especially in these attacks, provides any reason for Israel to open or ease its border with Gaza.

There were many workers from Gaza with permits to work in Israel, who were crossing into Israel to work regularly. We now know that many of these workers were cooperating with Hamas - taking pictures, providing information about military bases, security arrangements in communities and detailed drawings and plans of places in Israel. Much of this information was used by Hamas in its attacks. I do not see a situation in the near future where Gaza residents will be crossing into Israel, for any reason after this war ends. If one of the supposed "reasons" for this Hamas massacre was to "open the gates," this type of terrorism will certainly set back any discussion of looser borders.

Other Conflict Areas

As I mentioned above, it is quite clear that much of the current anti-Israeli activity is being controlled by the Iranian regime, which is the primary sponsor of Hamas. Iran also sponsors, equips, trains and controls the Hezbollah regime, which is the largest non-state military actor in the region and which controls Lebanon.

Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Hezbollah has been making all kinds of threats against Israel. As well, Hezbollah has been launching increasingly severe attacks against Israel from the north.  They have launched rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and artillery fire at Israel, killing several  Israelis and wounding many others. Israel has responded with attacks that have killed several Hezbollah fighters and that have corresponded to the intensity of the Hezbollah attacks.  

There is a growing sense that Israel will soon be embroiled in a full scale war with Lebanon. Israel has ordered the evacuation of many of its northern cities, including Metullah. The U.S. has moved two aircraft carriers to the region. Canada has announced an evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon. Israel has called up a massive number of reserve soldiers and has an enormous number of troops ready to fight on its northern border. It is all up to the leaders in Iran - to give the signal to Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah - to launch a full scale war. The U.S. has, thus far, indicated that it will not put "boots on the ground" in Lebanon - but it may well be that aircraft from the U.S.S. Gerald Ford or the U.S.S. Eisenhower would become involved if Israel were to be attacked by Lebanon.

It seems unlikely that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah, even though some Israeli military leaders now believe that would be better for Israel than waiting to be attacked. But President Biden seems to be urging Israel to refrain, with the hope that Hezbollah may ultimately choose to stay out of the conflict. It is really hard to predict at this point. But if Hezbollah goes all in for a full military conflict with Israel, that may well spread to include Iran and the U.S.

Iran also has armed forces in north eastern Syria that have been arriving from Iraq. Israel has already launched some defensive actions against some of these forces as they progress towards Israel.

On Thursday night - the Iranian backed Houthis, a Yemenite group, loyal to Iran, launched several drones at Israel, destined for Eilat. These attacks were reportedly thwarted by the U.S. navy - but we  now have an indication that another Iranian proxy, the Yemenite Houthis, want to become involved as well. I don't think they were really on Israel's radar - and the Houthis have had enough problems fighting their own civil war in Yemen. But here we are, adding in another possible party to the conflict.  As a breaking news addition to this update, just before I complete it, the Houthis have just announced that if Israel begins a ground incursion into Gaza, the Houthis will launch an all out attack on all Israeli ships in the Red Sea. I would imagine that Israel and/or the U.S. would strike the Houthis very hard if they carry out these threats.

Overall, it is quite evident that Israel is now fighting a broad, regional war, sponsored by Iran and its proxies, which has become more of an existential threat than what I might have previously described as a more localized but large-scale Hamas terrorist attack. The war is still simmering in some places but it may boil over soon and the scale of this war may be unfathomable. 

The World

This past week, leaders from around the world visited Israel, including President Biden, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Sunak, German Chancellor Scholz. For the most part, these leaders were sympathetic to Israel, aware of the situation - and at the same time, trying to do whatever they can to limit the spread of the war and to minimize civilian casualties. Israelis were particularly comforted impressed by President Biden who showed extraordinary leadership. He sent two aircraft carriers to the region immediately. He visited Israel during war time, in dangerous conditions. He met with families of hostages and with Israelis who acted heroically to save others. Further, President Biden delivered three speeches, two of which were exceptional (the two speeches he gave in Israel). 

As a side note, President Biden's second speech in Israel included a mini "dvar-Torah" - a Bible-related discussion - during which he spoke about the holiday that the Jewish people were celebrating the day of the Hamas massacre. He mentioned the tremendous loss that the Jewish people faced when Moses died at the end of the last book of the Torah. The President spoke about how the holiday marks a point in the year where the Jewish people conclude the annual reading of the Torah, by reading the final chapter, with all of its sadness, and then somehow move on to a new beginning, by starting the reading of the Torah over again, right away. I thought was very well done, whether it was written by the President himself, one of his speech writers or hired rabbi somewhere.   

All of this support and empathy stands in enormous contrast to the U.S. stance 50 years ago, during the Yom Kippur  War, in which President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger were reluctant to support Israel in any way at the war's outset.  The U.S. initially turned down Israel's requests even though the U.S.S.R. was providing airlifts of military equipment to Egypt and Syria, the countries that had launched the 1973 war. President Biden still has to deal with some  in his party who would prefer a less "pro-Israel" stance but for now, in my view, just as he has done in the case of the Ukraine, President Biden has shown some real leadership. 

The Press

The war is just over two weeks old but we have already seen some examples of outrageous reporting.  The New York Times reported on an alleged Israeli attack on a Palestinian hospital just minutes after it  occurred, promptly blaming the Israelis and claiming that Israel had killed more than 500 civilians. As we now know, the attack was from an Islamic Jihad missile, aimed at Israel, that misfired. This has been verified by U.S., French, British, Israeli and even Canadian intelligence (the Canadians took the  longest time to confirm). The rocket landed in the hospital parking lot and killed less than 50 people.  So it wasn't Israel targeting a hospital, it wasn't an airstrike and the rocket, sent by the Islamic Jihad, killed less than 50 people and not 500. How does the New York Times get something like this so wrong?  And how do they repair the damage they caused? The NYT headlines and those of media outlets around the world led to Arab demonstrations around the world, in Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and other countries. We should expect more from the New York Times and other media outlets. Is it too much to ask for the truth?

The CBC in Canada continues to avoid calling Hamas members terrorists. Instead we get "fighters," "gunmen" or "militants." Surely those are the right labels for these types of attacks including burning people alive, rapes, hostage taking, beheadings, torture and other atrocities. Even though the UK lists  Hamas, officially, as a "terrorist organization," the BBC has, to date, refused to call Hamas members "terrorists," preferring "Hamas Fighters" and other labels. Needless to say, all of this is shameful.

There are a great many other points to cover over worldwide media issues, but I will leave this for another blog.  I would just say, for one, I have seen and read some outstanding speeches and articles over the past few weeks that have made the case for Israel very well, including some talks by Michal Cotler-Wunsh, Rabbi Cosgrove of the Park Avenue Synagogue and many others.  

I have also read about the backfire against the Harvard students who are upset that they have been "doxxed" and "outed" for making statements supportive of Hamas after its brutal attacks.  They claim  "freedom of speech."  But I really don't think that freedom of speech means anonymously supporting terrorist attacks and remaining free of any accountability or consequences. If these people were lauding other terrorist attacks (like 9/11) or promoting attacks against blacks, women, other minorities, etc., they would almost certainly be sanctioned, in some cases, dismissed from their jobs or they would face other consequences. Anyone who has any justification to offer for these obscene and outrageous crimes against civilians obviously has other motives.  

Other

Most international airlines have suspended their service to Israel, though El Al and a handful of other airlines continue to fly.  I was scheduled to fly to Canada this week but all Air Canada flights have been suspended at least until October 31, 2023. Looks like I will have to fly El Al to leave the country in early November (and change somewhere in Europe or the U.S.) to attend to different matters that require me to be in Canada. Will have to see what things look like at that point in time.

We supplied about 160 soldiers (one of whom was a family member) with Jachnun for Shabbat along with the usual accompaniments - hard boiled  eggs, grated tomato sauce, hot sauce etc.,  The soldiers  were thrilled.  They have food and are not short of supplies. But they are always happy to get something special, especially for Shabbat. Israel is a small country and the distances are manageable, so many parents make food deliveries to bases where there children are stationed - when that is possible. I won't give a detailed description of "Jachnun" other than to say that it is originally a Yemenite Jewish food, eaten on Shabbat, that has become a Shabbat morning delicacy for Israelis everywhere over the years.

Our drive to meet up with the soldiers was a bit nail-biting, even though it was uneventful, thankfully.

For now, Ra'anana has been relatively quiet. We have had several sirens go off, which require us to go to the "secured room" - a form of bomb shelter.  But I'm not aware of anything landing in Ra'anana so far. If Hezbollah joins the war, things may be very different.

Many businesses are still open around Israel but this war is very different from anything I have seen here since my first time coming to Israel in 1982. There is a real concern that this has been, and will be, one of the most difficult wars that Israel has fought. We are mourning for the more than 1400 victims of this Hamas massacre. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified and many funerals have not yet taken place. We are hoping and praying for the safety and well being of our soldiers and civilians, for the return of all of the hostages and for the full recovery of all those of who have been injured. We also hope for a speedy victory over Hamas with the lowest possible number of civilian casualties among Israelis and innocent Palestinians and a real opportunity to change the reality in this region when this is all over. I cannot say that I am too optimistic at this point but we have no alternative but to hope for the best.

Day 8 of War - Increasing Escalation

We are the midst of day eight of a war with Hamas/Gaza, which is a really a war with several parties, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the Palestinian Authority, even though parts of this war have not yet started.  I don't write this as a scare tactic but rather as my best assessment of where we are currently.

I am not going to recap in this blog the full extent of the massacre conduct by Hamas terrorists last week. I will say that over the past week, we have learned more and more details of the extensive planning that went into this attack with the clear aim of murdering civilians, taking hostages, looting and other outrageous acts. More than 1,300 Israelis were murdered and more than 3,000 were injured - all of this conducted by the official government that runs and controls the Gaza strip -  Hamas - which announced its actions as a "declaration of war" on Israel last week.

Since last week, Israel has launched extensive air raids on Gaza and has killed several of Hamas' senior military commanders. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops have been called up and many are massed at the border of Gaza, prepared to enter if and when they receive the order to do so.

Although Israel has warned residents of northern Gaza to leave and take shelter in the south - and has threatened to begin a ground option "at any time" - the extent and nature of the pending Israeli operation is yet to be determined. It is clearly a top priority for Israel to destroy the entire network of Hamas tunnels, weapons and communications facilities and everything else that Hamas has built up underground across Gaza.  How exactly Israel plans to do this remains to be seen. However, Israelis across the political spectrum are largely unified and view the complete destruction of Hamas' military capabilities as an imperative and the key war aim for Israel.

Other Fronts

As we know, Hamas is funded, trained and supported by Iran as well as Qatar and to some extent, Turkey.  Hamas also works closely with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon and parts of Syria.  Hezbollah has pledged, at least in some form, to support Hamas in this war.  It may well be that Hezbollah and Hamas have a detailed plan as to how and when Hezbollah will get involved.  Or perhaps Hezbollah is playing it by ear. 

Since the war  began, Hezbollah has been slowly increasing its involvement - just enough to avoid starting a full scale war. They have fired unmanned drones, missiles, rockets and other weaponry at Israel but in small quantities. Today, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks. In the morning, they fired an RPG that killed one  Israeli and  injured five others. Later this afternoon, they fired another RPG that killed two more civilians.  As I have been writing this blog, Hezbollah has fired 7 more RPGs at Israeli troops. Israel has answered these attacks with air strikes and other retaliatory measures, though still on a relatively restrained scale. However, at this point, it now seems to be a question of when, rather then if, Israel will be in a full scale war with Hezbollah and Lebanon. This may well erupt completely today or tomorrow.

Lebanon has a massive storehouse of missiles, drones, rockets and all types of other weaponry. Hezbollah has thousands of Hezbollah fighters gathered near the border and it seems very unlikely that they will  decide to stay out of the war. The US has two aircraft carriers in place, one in the Mediterranean off the coast of  Israel.  It is unclear what role the U.S. will play in a fight between Israel and Hezbollah, but President Biden's speeches suggest that the U.S. is likely to use its air power if Israel is attacked by Hezbollah/Iran.

To the east of Lebanon, thousands of troops are now ready in Syria, some from Syria and some from Iraq. So far, these troops have fired a few times towards Israel. There are suggestions that Hezbollah would rather attack Israel from the east - and have Syria serve as the war theatre rather than Lebanon. However, Israel is not buying this. If Israel is drawn into an all out war with Hezbollah, Israel will almost certainly flatten parts of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. That threat may be the one thing that is restraining Hezbollah so far.

Palestinian areas in Judea and Samaria including groups in Jenin are also threatening to get involved, all to help spread the army thinner. Right now, this does not seem to be a major threat but it may develop into one.

The major player behind all of this is clearly Iran, which is controlling the strings of everything that is going on. It is unclear whether Iran is interested in joining this war, though it has threatened to destroy Israel for many years.  The U.S. aircraft carriers may be a deterrent here but we simply don't know what Iran has planned as part of this war.

Stories of Bravery    

There are hundreds of stories of incredible acts of bravery that took place last week by police officers, soldiers, civilians and others. I wanted to mention a few.

In the kibbutz of Nir Am, the leader of the Kibbutz's Readiness Forces, Inbal Lieberman (26), received an early notification of an impending attack. She sprung into action, got all of the forces up and ready and developed an action plan and spread the forces (12 of them) to different stations across the Kibbutz. With her direction, the Kibbutz forces held off and killed waves of Hamas terrorists - until Israeli enforcements were later able to arrive and engage the remaining Hamas forces further. No civilians were killed at Nir Am, one of the few developments that suffered no civilian casualties and was not destroyed by the terrorists on Saturday October 7, 2023.

Another story involves Yair Golan, who is a former Knesset member for the left wing Meretz party. He is also a retired Major General in the IDF. He is  61. He received phone calls from different people early Sunday morning about kids who were trapped at the Nova party - and were reporting that Hamas terrorists were massacring people. Described as a "one-man army," Golan wasted no time. He grabbed a weapon, got into his car and sped to the area. In what sounds like scenes from a Mission Impossible or James Bond movie - he raced to locations provided to him by trapped party-goers, using their cell-phones. Along the way, he killed several Hamas terrorists. He loaded up his car, drove the kids to safety and went back to pick up other groups. It is unclear how many he brought to safety but the stories are simply astounding. Earlier this year, Golan was being called a "traitor" and "anarchist" by some Likud members since he opposed Netanyahu's attack on the judiciary. Now many of those same members are saluting his bravery and thanking him.

I also want to mention the story of Moran Tagdi, a police officer who took control of a dangerous situation involving a group of Hamas terrorists fighting from the rooftop of a two story complex in one of the Kibbutzim.  A group of officers and soldiers were involved in an intense gunfight with Hamas terrorists who had grenades, RPGs and other weapons. Tagdi came up with a plan - and told the other officers to continue to occupy the attention of the terrorists. She sent Whatsapp messages to her kids, telling them that she loved them, since she didn't know if she would survive. She took two fighters with her. They snuck around the rear of the building, made her way up the stairs and killed the three terrorists.  

There are hundreds of other stories but the stories I have cited caught my attention his week. Many stories didn't turn out as well. One Israeli commando apparently killed more than 40 Hamas terrorists himself over a period of three hours before he ran out of ammunition and was killed himself. Another group of Kibbutz Readiness forces tried to fight back but were hit with rocket launchers by Hamas and were all killed - and unable to stop Hamas pillaging, murder and hostage-taking in their kibbutz. More than 250 Israeli soldiers and more than 40 police officers were killed fighting back.  

It is evident that even in the face of a massive surprise invasion by terrorists intent on carrying out all kinds of heinous crimes, there were many points of light in the form of brave police officers, soldiers and civilians who acted quickly and saved lives.

Hostages

As you probably know, there are more than 140 hostages  in Gaza, of all different ages, taken by Hamas. We have very limited information  about them or their whereabouts. It may be that the IDF is trying to rescue some as we speak - though so far - Israel has only managed to retrieve some bodies of hostages who were either killed in Hamas captivity or whose bodies were taken by Hamas for negotiations. We have not heard about any efforts by the Red Cross or any other "humanitarian" organizations to try and release these hostages. President Biden met personally with family members of some of the hostages. While Israel always makes it a key priority to rescue its hostages, it is facing major challenges  in the  context of this current war.  I have to believe that the army is taking whatever steps it can but this is a very difficult  situation.

Personal

We appreciate the many warm messages we have received. Things are extremely stressful here. The war is threatening to spin out of control and grow into a much wider regional conflict. We are concerned for the safety of family members, friends, neighbours, community members and  others - and there is a great deal of uncertainty how long this might go on. It could be several months or longer.

Israel is determined to remove Hamas from Gaza as a threat and to ensure that Gaza cannot threaten Israel militarily.  It is also determined to capture or kill all of those who were responsible for the heinous terrorist acts committed last week. Both of those goals may take a while and may lead to months and months of fighting - while Israel may also have to fight one or two additional fronts at the same time.  

We hope and pray that this will all end quickly and successfully for Israel, however one might describe "success" in these circumstances, given what has taken place so far.

 

Hamas Launches Surprise War on Israel from Gaza

It is very difficult to write anything today but I think it is important to provide some kind of update from my perspective, here in Israel.  There is still a great deal of uncertainty - about everything that happened yesterday, about what is happening today and what is going to happen in the coming days, weeks and even months.  I am not going to be able to address much of that uncertainty but here are a few of my comments.  Whatever I am writing now is based on information as of Sunday morning, October 8, 2023 at  noon - or 5 a.m. EST.  Information is likely to updated throughout the coming days and beyond.

The Hamas Surprise Attack

As you have probably heard, Hamas, the terrorist group that runs the Gaza trip, launched a major surprise attack against Israel yesterday morning.   It was Simchat Torah in Israel - the day of "Rejoicing of  the Torah" - one of the happiest days on the Jewish calendar, when observant Jews are in synagogue - singing, dancing and marking the end of the fall Holy Day period (which runs from Rosh Hashanah until the end of Sukkot).

From available information, the Hamas attack was carried out in several different ways.  One part of the attack was to launch thousands of missiles directed at civilian areas across the country.  Secondly, waves of Hamas fighters broke down border fences and crossed into Israel and drove towards 22 different Israeli towns and small cities surrounding or nearby Gaza. Other Hamas groups used paragliders and landed in different locations from the air.  Still others arrived from the sea.

The goal of these attacks was to target civilians primarily and to kill or take hostage as many people as possible.

Some groups of  these Hamas terrorists arrived at a "Nature Party" where hundreds of young Israelis were our partying.  Mostly  teenagers and others in their early 20s.  The terrorists opened fire on these unarmed kids and killed many of them.  Several were injured, many severely.  Some were taken captive by Hamas and apparently brought back to Gaza.  There is video footage of some of the murders, some of the hostage taking - posted by Hamas personnel.  We don't yet know exactly how many people were killed at this gathering, how many were taken hostage and how many are still in the hospital. Many are missing - and their parents, family members and friends are doing everything possible to try and find them. (Since the time I started writing this, a group of these people was found hiding - more than 30 - who were thought to have been killed or taken hostage - they seem to be fine, physically.  Most of them are apparently foreign workers from Thailand).

Other  Hamas groups went to most of the 22 different towns and cities and began going from door to door, breaking in to homes and killing civilians.  In some of these towns, police and reserve soldiers grabbed their weapons fought back. In one case, a father grabbed his weapon (he was a reserve duty soldier) and killed two terrorists in his living room).  Many police officers were killed in these exchanges. Some people went and locked themselves in their bomb shelters - which have extremely thick,  inside-locking  doors.  Many civilians were killed as well as some soldiers and police officers.  A large number were also taken hostage, again, apparently brought to Gaza.

Some Hamas groups attacked certain military bases - including, in particular, one training base, where several military personnel were killed including at least one new recruit.   

Other terrorists may have hidden themselves somewhere.  We still don't know exactly how many entered Israel,  how many are still here, or what else they have planned.  Israeli official reports indicate that more than 250 terrorists have been killed and many more captured.

As of now, Israeli reports indicate that between 400 and 450 Israelis have been killed, the vast majority civilians. More than 2000 people have been injured, many of whom are still in serious or critical condition. At least 100 Israelis have been taken hostage and brought back to Gaza.

There were three different hostage situations within Israel that took all day to resolve - including one where more then 50 people were being held in a Kibbutz  dining hall.  In another situation, terrorists had occupied and were holding the Sderot police station.  According to reports this morning, all three of those situations were resolved and the hostages were released.

For Israel, this was one of the harshest days Israel has had to deal with in its history.  Some 50 years ago, Israel faced a surprise attack on Yom Kippur.  It was devastating and it was an existential fight for the country.  At the time, Israelis were genuinely worried about being  overrun completely.  The fighting, however, in that war, primarily involved Israeli soldiers fighting against  Syrian and Egyptian soldiers.  Ultimately, in that war, the army prevented large scale attacks against civilians.

In 1948, Israeli also grappled with  an  extremely harsh and difficult situation,  which was also genuinely  existential  - and included attacks on and massacres of civilians.

Yesterday's attack was quite different from those situations.  For one thing, so far, the primary target, initially, has been civilians.  The attack was intended to show Israelis that the army cannot protect them from Hamas terrorists.  Although Hamas  "declared war" on Israel yesterday in an "official statement" - it has no illusions that it can pose an existential threat to Israel.  However, it can and did cause severe damage to civilians, to morale and to Israel's military "deterrence."  

Hamas leaders, over the past few months, apparently met with Hezbollah and Iranian leaders. It may be that Hamas is hoping that this war will be expanded and that Hezbollah and Lebanon from the north will get involved - and perhaps even Iran.  So far that is not the case, but Hezbollah has a vast array of sophisticated missiles waiting in Lebanon and if Hezbollah becomes involved, with the backing of Iran, Israel will face an unprecedented type of war.

How Did this Happen?

Hamas carried out a well planned surprise attack.  However, it would seem that Israeli forces are generally geared up to prevent exactly this type of attack.  There are drone and  satellite patrols along the border fence with Gaza.  There are constant marine patrols in the water aided by satellite and drones. And there is constant monitoring of the airspace.

Moreover, there are countless military bases nearby with soldiers ready to spring into  action. 

One rumour making the rounds alleges that Iran launched a cyber attack and shut down our military intelligence systems at the time of the attack yesterday morning.  I have seen  nothing to corroborate these claims.  In any case, cell phones and other communication systems were apparently still working.

I still do not understand how the army was not able to deploy large numbers of troops, immediately, to the cities and towns that were being attacked. For hours, residents of many of these cities were making calls on their  phones, trying to get military help while hiding and trying to protect themselves from the terrorists. It took several hours for help to arrive. I am sure that this will be the subject of examination and inquiry in coming weeks, months and years.

What Next?

Israel is facing many severe  challenges. There are more than 100 captured Israelis who have been brought to Gaza - and it must be at the highest order of priorities to rescue as many of these people as possible.  They are likely to be dispersed in different places in Gaza and this will be no easy task.  

Israel is still working to ensure that all of the 22 cities that were attacked are cleared of terrorists. From reports this morning, there are still some terrorists hiding in these cities - and some who have travelled elsewhere. Finding and neutralizing all of these terrorists is another one of the highest priorities. 

A third priority is securing the land, water and air  borders with Gaza to ensure that more terrorists cannot continue to enter Israel. The security fence is being rebuilt and large numbers of troops are bolstering the  border.

Beyond  these immediate steps, Israel is dealing with a "declaration of  war" from Hamas and will need to launch a full scale offensive to defeat  Hamas. This may take some time to plan and execute, but we would have to anticipate one of the largest scale operations that Israel has ever seen - likely to be launched in the coming days or weeks, if not in the coming hours.

Loss and Tragedy

TV, radio and social media are filled with footage, photos, videos and stories of loved ones who were murdered, injured and taken prisoner.  More than 350 people have been killed  - including at least one high ranking military commander, a mayor, more than 25 police officers and many sons, daughters, spouses, parents, grandparents, and children. The grief is incalculable - as is the anger, frustration, upset and disappointment from so many Israelis. The hospitals are working around the clock to deal with overwhelming numbers of injured.  People are frantically trying to find out what has happened to loved ones who are missing - and to figure out if they have been hospitalized, taken hostage, or  murdered - or maybe they are still hiding somewhere and their phone batteries have died.

Resolve

I would like to say that we have heard or seen reassuring messages from the current Israeli leadership but generally, members of the government have gone AWOL.  There was a brief statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday - but otherwise nothing. The government will need to pull itself together and show resolve and determination very quickly. Opposition leaders, including Ganz and Lapid, have offered to join a temporary "War Cabinet" with Netanyahu - however, so far nothing has come of it. There is quite a bit of concern that Netanyahu is running a government with a range of inexperienced and incapable ministers - from his own Likud party (from which many of the most experienced and capable leaders have left over the past few years) as well as  from two ultra-religious parties (with no military experience) and one ultra-nationalist party (with limited military experience).

Benny Gantz's party (sitting in opposition) includes several experienced military personnel as well as  other experienced former Likud members.  Lapid's party (also sitting in opposition) also includes several experienced personnel. For the sake of the country, it seems that it would make quite a bit of sense for Netanyahu to try and work with these experienced personnel rather put the country at the mercy of his current incompetent and extremist team, who do not seem to have the capacity or capability to manage this properly.

Personal

We were planning to go to shul yesterday for Simchat Torah.  At 6:30 a.m., we were woken up by sirens and had to go to the bomb shelter.  We don't usually open the TV on Shabbat or Holy Days but decided to do so and see what was going on.  We soon began to see the scale of the attack. The government asked people to refrain from gathering in large groups. The mayor of Ra'anana went from shul to shul, early in the  morning, letting people know about the situation. I think it is one of the only times that I have missed going to synagogue on Simchat Torah other than  due to the Covid outbreak.

A missile landed on the street where one of our family members lives. She was in a shelter and is fine but others were seriously injured and a building was destroyed. Another missile hit and destroyed an apartment where a cousin of ours used to live. The current tenant was in a shelter and is fine - but the place has been destroyed. Another family member updated us - to let us know that one of her good friends - just married last year - was killed in battle yesterday.  

Unfortunately, we are likely to hear many of these stories in the coming days.

Many airlines have announced suspension of flights to and from Israel, including Air Canada. So my status at this time is a bit up in the air. I was supposed to fly to Toronto this week but I will have to see how things develop and what if any flights are available - and whether it makes sense to go. I have some specific occasions that I am hoping to attend as well as some work that would best be done in person. But in the circumstances, my plans may have to change.

I have to add that I saw a completely obscene message from the current Mayor of Toronto, who above all referenced "Palestinian Pain and severe loss of life" in her statement about the attack yesterday. This is the type of statement she puts out on a day on which hundreds of civilians were massacred, many at point blank range, by terrorists?  By way of contrast, President Biden offered his complete support for Israel to take whatever measures necessary to deal with the situation. Prime Minister Trudeau offered a much more "lukewarm" statement condemning the attacks. Israel received more helpful messages of support from France, Germany and several other countries.

Despite Biden's reassuring words, there is quite a bit of concern that the ongoing  arrangements between the U.S. and Iran, including the recent release of large amounts of money, have emboldened Iran to ramp up its support for Hamas and Hezbollah.  We may hear more about this down the road but a policy of isolating Iran and boycotting it  would  be much better for the worldwide fight against terrorism than a policy which in any way bolsters and emboldens this extremist Iranian regime.

I'm not going to add comments about other events and stories at this time as it just wouldn't be fitting. Instead I am simply going to add that we are hoping  and praying for the safety of our soldiers, our security forces - and everyone else - as we head into a very uncertain and challenging period that we have now entered.   

War in Gaza: Some Thoughts

There is a great deal going on this 14th day of Israel's Operation "Protective Edge."  I have not been writing very many articles recently but I thought an article about the ongoing war with Hamas was overdue.  There are many different angles to cover and many different viewpoints across the Internet, the media and public opinion.  Much of the writing is of course very one-sided.  A great deal of the anti-Israel rhetoric has included vitriolic anti-Semitic attacks unrelated to any legitimate points.  On the other hand, some of the rhetoric on the Israeli side can be criticized as well for being propaganda rather than serious commentary.  Ultimately, anyone writing about this conflict will have a set viewpoint that will colour his or her analysis.  But it is not always the case that there are two sides to every story.  Some fights really are fights of good against evil (or various shades of that theme) and history is filled with examples of such conflicts.

It is not my intention to paint everything as simply black and white but rather to review some key points that have emerged from events so far.

1.  Hamas is a terrorist organization that is intent on killing Israelis and has no interest in peace.

While this sounds like harsh, one-sided rhetoric, it is unfortunately true.  Not long after 2005, when Israel pulled up its settlements from Gaza and left most of it, Hamas was elected as the leadership in Gaza and solidified its hold on Gaza society.  Since then, there have been three significant military conflicts with Israel, all precipitated by Hamas intensifying its use of rocket fire at Israel.

How is this really helping or assisting the people of Gaza?  It is really hard to come up with a good answer to this question - other than "it isn't."  When Israel left Gaza, it left greenhouses in tact, and it left the Palestinians in control of a large amount of prime beach front territory.  With enormous amounts of U.N. aid coming to Gaza, the Palestinians could have chosen a different path.  They could have build hotels in Gaza to build tourism.  They could have put the money into schools, education, sewage, infrastructure.  The current war between Israel and Hamas has shown that enormous resources have simply been used to stockpile different types of rockets and to build extensive tunnels that allow Hamas terrorists to make their way into Israel underground to try to kill or kidnap Israelis.

2.  Israel was left with no choice but to fight this war.

This is the corollary to the first point and it has been reinforced in the events that followed the commencement of the war.  The war was not started because of the Hamas kidnapping and murder of three Jewish students nor was it started because of the reprisal attack carried out by some Israeli vigilantes who murdered an innocent Arab boy.  It was started by Hamas making a decision to fire an unceasing barrage of rockets at Israeli civilians.

What would any other country do?  How could Israel not respond to this?

The difficulty that Israel has faced is that the rockets are being fired at Israel from built up residential areas, mosques, schools (even U.N. run schools), and other densely populated places.  Israel has the capability of determining where the missiles originated from.  Most countries, faced with repeated missile fire from a certain area, would simply destroy the whole building or area.  Certainly the U.S., Russia, France and many of Israel's other vocal critics (with respect to the issue of "restraint") would have little hesitation in destroying everything in sight, even if that meant a large number of civilian casualties in order to stop missile attacks on their country.  If Israel were using this method of responding to rocket fire, the deaths of Palestinians would be in the thousands by now, not the hundreds.

3.  The Cost of the War is high for both sides.

The current war has resulted in many deaths and injuries on both sides.  The media love to report raw numbers as if the numbers were the most important thing.  It is true that the Iron Dome missile defence system has done an incredible job of protecting Israelis from most of the incoming missiles.  It is also true that the people of Gaza do not have properly equipped bomb shelters, missile warning systems or sophisticated means of protecting themselves from the Israeli army.

But on the other hand, it is Hamas that is putting these civilians at risk by firing missiles at Israel from civilian locations.  It is no answer to say that Israel should exercise "restraint" or not respond, start a unilateral cease fire or take some other one-sided action that sees Israel continuing to absorb Hamas rocket fire.  Israel must respond, even if the response causes civilian casualties in Gaza.

For Israel, the soldiers are mostly conscripts from Israeli society who are serving their country and who are asked to trust that the political and military leadership are making decisions that will minimize the short and long term likelihood of a prolonged war.  They hope that Israel's leadership will protect the security interests of Israel's citizens.  The soldiers are friends, family members, acquaintances.  They are called into action to protect the people of Israel and answer the call.  The loss of even one soldier in Israel is a difficult, tragic and heart wrenching event for the people.  The loss of 18 soldiers over this past weekend and 7 more today was simply horrible.

This is not all intended to downplay the value of life or the loss of life of Palestinians.  Many Palestinians have been killed and injured.  The numbers are much higher than the number of Israelis.  But that is the unfortunate and tragic result of this type of war, which was started by Hamas.  Hamas was offered two different cease fires so far, after the war began, both of which were brokered by Egypt, accepted by Israel but  but rejected by Hamas.  Hamas has chosen to fight or continue the fighting three times now where there were alternatives.  It is Hamas that is endangering Palestinian civilians by continuing this war.

One can only hope that the people of Gaza will start to see that a different approach in dealing with Israel would have very different results.  Contrast the situation in Gaza with the situation in the West Bank to understand that point clearly.  Under the leadership of the Palestinian Authority, many West Bank Palestinian are working with Israelis in productive ways and are reaping the benefits of economic progress, stability and relative calm.

4.  Hamas has very few friends right now - which makes a cease fire difficult to arrange.

Much of the world realizes that Israel has few alternatives and that Hamas is a terrorist organization.  In the past, Hamas relied on Egypt to quietly supply it with weaponry, permit it to smuggle items in to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing and then pressure Israel into a cease fire before it could damage Hamas.  The situation is quite different now.  The current Egyptian government has little time for Hamas and recognizes that Hamas has embarked on a dangerous operation with no realizable end-goal that makes any sense.  Russian President Putin has been remarkably restrained, at least as reported publicly.  Canada has been strongly supportive of Israel and the U.S. has been publicly supportive.  While there have been anti-Israel demonstrations across the world, most western governments seem to have realized that Israel is facing a terrorist threat and has few alternatives but to continue its current operation.

The most vocal supporter of Hamas has been Turkish president Erdogan, who has made the ludicrous allegation that Israel is "far worse than Hitler." Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rightly commented in a press conference that this is the type of statement we would expect to hear from Hezbollah, Al Qaidah, or Iran - not from Turkey.  That is all not necessarily a surprise but it is quite disappointing to consider that this is the direction Turkey seems to be heading.  Of course the proper response would be to ask Erdogan about Turkey's genocide against the Armenian people and to put everything into context.  How crazy is it for the leader of a country which has never really accounted for its massacre of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Armenians to be comparing Israel to the Nazis in the context of a war in which hundreds of civilians have been killed, unintentionally.

The challenge that the world faces right now is the lack of a broker to arrange a deal between Hamas and Israel.  John Kerry has no credibility with Hamas (the U.S. has no diplomatic relations with Hamas and views them as a terrorist organization).    So Hamas has turned to Mahmoud Abbas, Turkey and Qatar.  To be an acceptable mediator, it seems, you have to be prepared to describe Israel in Nazi-like terms.  Much like Palestinian leader Hanan Asharawi has done in calling the Israeli operation a giant war crime while refraining from saying anything about Hamas and its tactics.  So the question remains - who can broker a cease fire or push Hamas into accepting some type of deal?  The answer is unclear.  For the Israeli political and military leadership, the best answer is that more time is needed to further limit Hamas' ability to start another war any time soon.

5.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very measured

Prime Minister Netanyahu has generally acted in a manner which has been statesman like and impressive.  He pushed his cabinet to agree to two different cease fire proposals, even though acceptance would have meant that Israel would fall short of its aims.  He made every effort to avoid launching a ground war in Gaza until he was forced to do so.  He has ordered the army to take every precaution to minimize the number of Palestinian civilian casualties even while Israel has been facing unceasing rocket fire.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been holding together a coalition that includes members who have publicly advocated re-occupying Gaza completely - along with other members who strongly support continuing peace talks as quickly as possible.  

6.  Things must change or this will happen again soon

What can Israel do to prevent this from happening again soon?  That is the really challenging question.  For those on the left and sometimes, for Israel's critics, the answer is that Israel should simply "end the occupation" and everything would be fine.  But isn't this what Israel tried in 2005 in Gaza?  Israel left unilaterally.  The result has been three wars.  Unilateral disengagement has not worked in Gaza and it will not work in the other territories.  Ultimately, Israel needs a genuine, enforceable peace deal with a partner that is committed to the arrangement.  As long as Hamas continues to run Gaza, there can be little hope of an arrangement like this any time soon.  Perhaps the people of Gaza will realize this and will bring about a change in their political leadership.  But at this point, many will have been scarred bitterly by this war and will want nothing to do with a government that takes a moderate approach to Israel. 


Unfortunately, the picture is grim.  A cease fire deal with Hamas in the short term will not lead to peace or to any long term solution of the current issues unless Hamas changes its positions dramatically which is not about to happen.  Accordingly, Israel has little alternative but to destroy as much of Hamas as it possibly can and destroy the terror tunnels that lead from Gaza to Israel.  Perhaps in these circumstances, a different type of government will emerge that has an interest in some kind of deal with Israel.

In the meantime, I am certainly hoping and praying for a speedy but successful end to this war and for Israel's soldiers to return home safely and in good health.  I am also hoping that civilian deaths in Gaza can be minimized and that the Palestinians can find a way to make much better decisions.  They deserve better than these Hamas-led wars.






 
 




  

Kerry's Peace Proposals - Status of Current Negotiations

It is often said by mediators that a good deal between two sides is one which leaves each side equally unhappy.  That is the essence of a negotiated settlement where two parties have diametrically opposing demands and are trying to find a peaceful way to resolve their differences.  Indications are that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is trying to find a way to come to some of these middle ground positions in an effort to present a plan to Israel and the Palestinians that has some chance of acceptance.

Certainly, there is no shortage of naysayers on either side of the conflict.  Israeli cabinet ministers Naftali Bennett and Ze'ev Elkin have been pushing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to walk away from the talks and reject Kerry's imminent proposals.  Similarly, officials on the Palestinian side of the table, including PLO Secretary Yasser Abed Rabbo have indicated that Kerry's proposals will not be acceptable to any Palestinians. 

At the same time, there are a number of high ranking Israeli cabinet ministers, including Tzipi Livni and Yair Lapid who maintain that a deal that is acceptable to Israel is within reach.  Any such deal, from the Israeli side, could necessitate a change in the current Israeli government.  Given statements made by Minister Naftali Bennett, he and his party would leave the government rather than agree to the type of peace plan being presented by Kerry.  On the other hand, there is significant skepticism in Israel that the Palestinians will accept this type of deal, even if Kerry can get the Israelis to agree.  Moreover, Israelis have real concerns as to whether the current Palestinian leadership could deliver the type of "peace" contemplated by the agreement.  Statements by various Palestinian officials seem to suggest that this type of deal will not be good enough and the Palestinians will reject a U.S. brokered proposal, yet again..  But that remains to be seen.

What are some of the key issues?

1.  Recognition of Israel as a Jewish State and Resolution of the Palestinian Refugee Issue.

In a sense, these issues are very closely related.  From an Israeli perspective, the UN partition plan in 1948 contemplated a two state solution - one state for the Jewish people and one state for the Palestinian people.  There can be little historical dispute that the Palestinians rejected the plan and declared war on Israel.  Over the course of that war, some areas were seized by Jordan and Egypt that would have been parts of the Palestinian state.  Other areas were captured by Israel and many Palestinians fled those areas.  Yet between 1948 and 1967, the Palestinian and pan-Arab animus was still directed at Israel with the goal of eliminating Israel's existence.  Such was the Arab rhetoric leading up to the 1967 war and the 1973 war - and for many years afterwards.  It is still the rhetoric of Hamas.   

The reason that Israel has insisted on recognition of Israel as a "Jewish state" as part of a peace deal is to signify that both sides accept a two state solution as a permanent peace deal.  It is not a stepping stone towards greater conflict.  Israel would recognize a Palestinian state with all of the trappings that a state might have, subject to security considerations.  The Palestinians would be expected to do the same and would agree to Israel's right to exist.  

What does a two state solution really mean?  It means that each side gives up its dream, goal or aspiration of taking over all of the territory held by the other side.  It also means that each side solves its own refugee problems within the borders of its territory.  For the Palestinians, this type of deal should leave them free to bring every single Palestinian refugee, from across the world, to the nascent Palestinian state, if they so choose.  Should that not be the purpose of a two state resolution?  Since 1948, Israel has absorbed millions of refugees, including Jews who were no longer welcome in Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Iran and other Arab countries.  The Palestinians will need to do the same and absorb the Palestinian refugees in their new state.

Most Palestinians have continued to demand the "right to return" to Israel.  This insistence is nothing more than a rejection of Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state and the expression of an intention to override Israel demographically.  It is, quite simply, for Israel, a non-starter.   If, as some suggest, Palestinians continue to insist that a large number of Palestinians be permitted to return to Israel rather than the new Palestinian state, this would be a deal breaker, in my view.

2.  Status of Jerusalem

Under the U.N. partition plan, Jerusalem was going to become an "International City."  It was never envisioned as part of the Palestinian state and certainly not its capital.  Between 1948 and 1967, much of Jerusalem was held by the Jordanians, with little push by the Palestinians to declare it the capital of Palestine.  In 1967, Israel recaptured parts of Jerusalem, including the old city and ultimately annexed most of the city.  Regardless of what some countries in the world might formally maintain, Jerusalem is not "occupied territory" as defined under the Geneva conventions. It was not legally held by Jordan nor was its status clearly defined. Since Israel has controlled Jerusalem, from 1967, the holy cites have been fully accessible to the different religious groups that claim access to them.  The Muslim Waqf has controlled the Al Aqsa Mosque and Christian holy cites have been overseen by Christian authorities. This contrasts with the picture that existed in Jerusalem between 1948 and 1967, during which time Jews were barred from attending the Jewish religious cites in old Jerusalem.

One of the key Palestinian demands is that East Jerusalem, including the Old City, become the capital of the new Palestinian state.  Once again, this is something that is simply not going to happen any time soon.  There would be no political will in Israel for dividing Jerusalem and certainly no appetite for Israel to relinquish the one place in the world that is holy to the Jewish people.  So Secretary of State Kerry has proposed using suburbs of Jerusalem, including Kafr Aqab or Abu Dis and calling those suburbs "Greater Jerusalem" or some other terminology so that "Jerusalem" can still be listed as the Palestinian capital.  While this would be unpalatable to many on both sides, it may be a reasonable resolution of the issue, especially when combined with the fact that Palestinians would continue to control the Muslim religious sites in Jerusalem as they do today, even though the Dome of the Rock sits on the very spot that was once the Holy Temple.

3.   The Settlements, the Border and Security

The United States has proposed a formula involving an approximate total amount of land for each side, equal to the 1967 borders.  The idea of "land swaps" would mean that Israel would keep the largest major settlement blocs while giving up other areas to the Palestinians.  There are certainly many on both sides who oppose this proposal entirely.

Many Palestinians have demanded that Israel withdraw, entirely, from all land that Israel has held since 1967. This would include major residential blocs, some of which were inhabited by Jews before 1948 (such as parts of Gush Etzion).  Some Israelis have demanded that Israel retain the vast majority of the West Bank and refuse to agree to turn over any territory, whatsoever.  Neither side is likely to get everything it is after in a negotiated settlement.

Media reports suggest that the settlement issue would be resolved through a number of approaches.  Under Kerry's proposals, which have not yet been formally announced, Israel would keep or annex the largest settlement blocs, but it would also agree to evacuate some areas of the West Bank on which there are now Israeli settlements.  Palestinians would receive other territory, with the total territory under Palestinian control for the new state the approximate equivalent of the 1967 borders.

The real challenge is security here, particularly security for Israel and even for Jordan.  Israel can ill afford, from a security perspective, to agree to the establishment of another fundamentalist terror-sponsored regime on its borders.  After Israel evacuated Gaza, the Gazan people promptly elected the rejectionist, terrorist group Hamas as its leadership.  Shortly afterwards, Hamas began lobbing rockets at Israel.  A repetition of this, in a different area, would be entirely unacceptable to Israel and would threaten Israel existentially.  Kerry's plans have apparently floated various approaches to address this security concern including a continuing, but gradually lessening Israeli presence in the Palestinian state or some type of U.S. presence.  This could present one of the greatest challenges for Israel and one of the biggest leaps of faith that Israel would have to make to agree to a deal.

Israel has a very small margin of error here the wrong decision or concession on security issues could be suicidal.  That is not to say that this is the plan of the current Palestinian leadership.  But looking at events in Syria, Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, it is reasonable for Israel to insist on security measures that will be honoured and verifiable, irrespective of the type of Palestinian government that might get elected.  Some of these precautionary security terms are likely to be unacceptable to the Palestinians and that is where Kerry is working with both sides to try to find some way to reach a deal.

Conclusion

There are, of course, numerous other issues.  After all, many books have been written about this issue, from various historical, political and other vantage points.  I have reviewed some of them elsewhere on this blog.

The real question is what is going to happen now - and will anything come of this.  Most Israelis apparently remain unconvinced that a deal will be possible, according to recent Israeli surveys reported on by YNet News and Haaretz.  Many Palestinians have signified that they would view this type of deal as a "sell-out" and would reject it entirely.  So it is far from clear that there will be any kind of resolution.  Nevertheless, here are a few possibilities:

1.       Israel could agree to the deal, whether unconditionally or with some reservations.  In order to do this, it  appears that Israel's government would change, at least somewhat.  It is likely that Bennett would leave the government and that Labour, under the leadership of its recently elected new leader Yitzhak Herzog would join.  It is unclear whether some or all of the "Yisrael Beitenu" MKs would leave the government and if they were to leave, whether Netanyahu could still cobble together a majority that would support the deal.  If a Netanyahu-led government were to support the deal, my sense is that a deal could also win support in an Israel-wide referendum, even if the margin of victory was slim.

2.  Israel could agree to the deal, as above, but the Palestinians could reject it, either in connection with the ongoing talks or as part of some form of referendum.  This is probably the outcome that most Israelis anticipate, although there are signs that Abbas may be prepared to agree to a proposed deal, even if he does so conditionally or with some reservations.  It is unclear what the Palestinians will do if these talks fail.  They may look to the world community to try and exert economic pressure on Israel by advocating boycotts and divestment.  Some countries in the world have already been susceptible to these overtures.  Or they may declare a third intifada.  Either of these approaches would likely be disastrous for both Israel and the Palestinians and would probably set back a peaceful resolution by another twenty or thirty years, at least.

3.  The Palestinians could agree to the deal, as above, with some reservations or unconditionally.  However, Bennett could then cause the collapse of the government and Netanyahu could prove unable (or unwilling) to put together a coalition that would support the deal.  This could result in new elections in Israel or it could bring about a new right wing government that includes the religious parties and that has no interest in any type of peace deal.  In this scenario, (i.e. if the Netanyahu government were to fall) my guess would be that we would see a new election fairly quickly, though I am not about to predict the results.  It seems to me unlikely that Netanyahu would cling to power by cobbling together a far right -wing government.  I think he would be more inclined to hold an election. 

Stepping back from all of this, there are many reasons for pessimism and it seems unlikely that we will see an Israel-Palestinian peace deal any time soon. There are so many complicated issues, so much "bad blood," and so much hatred.  Yet, as I have told some of my friends, we are living in an age which has seen the collapse of the U.S.S.R; a peaceful resolution of the dispute in Ireland; the end to South African Apartheid; and many other world changes that people would have believed to be possible in our lifetime.  So maybe, just maybe, a peace deal between Israel, the Palestinians and the neighbouring Arab states will be another one of those historical moments.

It seems to me that both sides need this type of deal if they truly wish to avoid sentencing their children and grandchildren to generations more of bloody conflict.

Operation Pillar of Cloud: Wrapped Up - For Now?

It has been a relatively quiet day so far in Israel, with the sound of thunder replacing the sounds of airplanes and rockets.  A rain storm is expected in parts of Israel and that certainly beats a missile storm.  A cease fire, sponsored primarily by Egypt, was put into place last night at approximately 9 p.m..  Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other factions continued to fire rockets at Israel for about another 2 hours after that time, but Israel did not respond to these provocations and the cease fire took hold.

It was a particularly bitter day of fighting for both sides yesterday.  A terrorist bombed a passenger bus in central Tel-Aviv, injuring a large number of people, and many rockets were fired at Israeli cities and towns in the south.  Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force responded by stepping up its campaign and bombing numerous targets in the Gaza Strip.

Many Israelis, particularly in the south, opposed the cease fire and were urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to make the decision to launch a full scale ground invasion of Gaza in an effort to make it less likely that Hamas would launch another barrage of rockets at Israel any time soon.  However, Netanyahu faced enormous world pressure from numerous quarters, including, most significantly, the U.S. and chose not to proceed with the ground assault.   There were also many in Israel who viewed a cease fire as a possible opportunity to work on some sort of longer lasting arrangement with Hamas and the Palestinians.

Although many Palestinians in Gaza are reportedly celebrating - and Hamas has declared November 22 to be a "national holiday," it is really hard to believe that this was a victory of any sort for Palestinians.  More than 100 Palestinians were killed, hundreds more were injured, and Gaza suffered major damage as a result of Israeli attacks.  Although Hamas succeeded in hitting Israeli targets and causing damage, it sustained very major damage to its military infrastructure and weapons caches and other types of damage as well.

This was also not a victory for Israel.  Although Operation Pillar of Cloud caused significant damage to Gaza's military capabilities and its leadership, Israel also suffered from several missile attacks that hit its cities and killed and injured its residents.

YNet News has reported the following statistics:

More than 1500 rockets and missiles were fired at Israel by Hamas and its cohorts;
875 exploded in open areas in Israel;
421 were intercepted by the Iron Dome system, which only intercepts projectiles that are likely to cause damage;
152 rockets and misssiles landed in the Palestinian territories;
More than 500 people were treated in Israeli hospitals for war-related innjuries over the 8 day operation.

Al-Jazeera reports that an estimated 162 Palestinians in Gaza were killed during Operation Pillar of Cloud but it is unclear how  many of these people were civilians.  It is also unclear whether this number is even accurate.  Various sources report that the IDF attacked more than 1,000 targets in Gaza over the course of the 8 day operation.

Haaretz printed an excellent post-mortem article, written by Chemi Shalev called Gaza Requiem which provides a fairly balanced picture of things, in my view.

It is unclear how long this "truce" will last.  It could be days, weeks or even months.  Hopefully both sides, and other international players interested in a peaceful resolution, will make a push to broaden the cease fire and make efforts to reach a wider and longer lasting peace deal.  Failing to do so will simply usher in another round of violence and the fighting in the region will continue.  While many pessimists insist that this is bound to be the case, we can only hope that the pessimists can eventually be proven wrong.

On a personal note, I was at a wedding in central Israel last night.  Invited guests included more than 100 military personnel, many of whom were close friends of the groom.  With the current military situation, the groom had been advised that very view of his friends would be able to attend.  As the cease fire was announced, just in time, a large number of these invited guests were able to come straight from their posts to the wedding - dressed in full military gear and fully armed.  But it was a bit of joyous timing for the bride and groom who were able to celebrate with many of their friends and were also able to enjoy their wedding with the knowledge that a truce had been reached.

Day 8: Close to a Deal? Fighting Continues.

There was a flurry of diplomatic activity yesterday in Israel, Egypt and Gaza as various countries and organizations tried to broker a cease fire deal of some sort. Word began leaking out that a deal had been struck to commence a cease fire - or at least a "lull" by late yesterday evening.  TV stations (and the Egyption president) announced that the Hamas government would announce a cease fire arrangement of some sort at approximately 9 p.m., followed by the official commencement of a temporary truce at about midnight. 

As the cease fire approaches, Hamas ramped up its efforts to cause maximum damage to Israel and its civilians.  Tens of rockets were fired at the city of Beersheva, as well as other southern Israeli cities, some of which scored direct hits.  A shopping mall was hit.  Missiles also hit a bus with some passengers and a residential home.  A young Israeli soldier, Yosef Fartuk, age 18, was killed, along with a contractor.  In total 5 Israelis have been killed since hostilities began.


This condominium building was hit yeseterday in the central Israeli city of Rishon L'Tzion, early in the evening,  by an  Iranian made Fajr 5 Rocket.  The residents heard the alarm and all went into the "Shelter Room."  The rocket went through four stories but the residents were mostly uninjured with a couple of people suffering minor bruises.  Newer buildings in Israel are all buillt with a "shelter room" surrounded by thick concrete walls.  Israelis have been urged by the Israeli Government to take shelter in these rooms as soon as they hear an alarm in their are.  In this case, listening to these instructions saved lives.

Building in Rishon L'Tzion - Nov 20, 2012 Courtesy of YNet News

With the combination of stepped up attacks from Hamas aimed at Beersheva and other areas, the amount of damage and the missiles sent to central Israel, the Israeli government responded by having the IDF step up its attacks.

Diplomatic efforts are apparently continuing in an effort to diffuse the crisis and come up with a cease fire arrangement.  U.S. Secretary of State is in the region and is meeting with Israeli, Egyption and Palestinian leaders.  Many other international diplomats are involved.  It does appear that a deal was close yesterday but may have been disrupted by the severe attacks and damage caused  by Hamas as the cease fire time approached.  Reports also suggest that Hamas was only pushing for a short "lull" rather than a longer term arrangement.

Israel is not interested in a truce deal that will simply allow Hamas to use a short pause to obtain more rockets from Iran and that start filing missiles in another few days or even weeks.  Israel is insisting that any type of  deal address at least some of the broader issues and include guarantees from Egypt or other countries that Hamas will not continue to bring rockets and weapons into Gaza.  In exchange, Israel is reportedly willing to ease its control of Hamas borders but only if it can be satisfied that a military embargo will be put in place.

Meanwhile, as the fighting continues, Israelis have been watching the news and seeing Hamas rockets fired at their homes and other civilian areas.  While the IDF faces world pressure to avoid civilian casualties at all costs, the Hamas goal is to cause maximum civilian casualties.  Some Israelis can't help but think that Israel should lob rockets into crowded Gaza civilian centres in response to the attacks on its civilians if that is the only way of deterring Hamas.  But of course, Israel will not do that.  It is committed to mainting the ethical and moral highground and fighting the war agains these Hamas terrorists as humanely as possible.

Despite IDF efforts to avoid civilian casualties, Palestinian sources have indicated that more than 100 people in Gaza have been killed by Israeli attacks, some of whom have been civilians.

This pattern of violence is all too familiar in this region.  At least some Israelis are hoping that this war will lead to a renewed sense of urgency to address broader issues and try to resolve the whole Palestinian-Israeli dispute.  It is hard to say that there are many Israelis who believe that this is likely - since Hamas controls the Gaza strip and has stated repeatedly that it is committed to the goal of destroying Israel.  Nevertheless, some believe that Hamas does have a pragmatic side and that it might even be a negotiating partner that will be more likely to enforce and uphold commitments that it makes unlike Fatah (the PLO). 

In any event, the ongoing costs of this constant struggle are staggering.  They take a heavy toll on both sides, economically, militarily and in so many other ways.  We continue to hope that we will be able to find a deal with the Palestinians that will work for both sides and that will put an end to this conflict.  Unfortunately, looking the trends in the region and, particularly, the spread of radical Islam in Egypt, Turkey and other countries in the area, it is difficult to be optimistic. 

Update - at 12:30 p.m.:

Two terrorists placed a bomb in a bus in central Tel-Aviv just after 12:00 p.m. today.  The bomb exploded injuring more than 10 people, 5 of them seriously.  The two terrorists reportedly ran off the bus.  The explosion shattered the bus but, fortunately, was not as lethal as some of the bus explosions that suicide bombers have undertaken in the past in Israel.  The combination of the ramped up level of attacks on Israel yesterday (which may have derailed the cease fire plans) and now this type of attack may well harden Israeli resolve to continue or broaden the campaign against Gaza.