Possible Ceasefire Deal?
A few minutes ago, the Israeli press began reporting that Hamas has advised negotiators that it has "accepted" the latest Qatari-Egyptian-U.S. proposal for a three-staged cease fire. It is unclear whether this will actually go ahead. But here are, among other things, a few events that took place today. First of all, Hamas announced earlier that it was leaving negotiations and that it could not trust the Egyptians to broker a deal. Israel announced that it was asking 100,000-200,000 civilians in Rafiah, Gaza to leave the area so that it could conduct operations in that area (the last remaining stronghold for Hamas military divisions).
It is noteworthy that Israel did not announce a major call up of its reserves in preparation for this telegraphed incursion. Nevertheless, hours later, Hamas announced "officially" that it was accepting the cease fire terms.
I do not have the detailed document here - but among other things - this is what is apparently included:
1. 33 kidnapped live Israelis would be returned over a period of 40 days - mainly including women, the elderly and some injured captives. In exchange, Israel would release approximately 100 convicted Hamas murderers and 600 other Hamas prisoners.
2. After the 40 days, Hamas would release additional hostages including soldiers and other civilians in exchange for further releases of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails.
3. There is a third stage of agreeing to the rehabilitation of Gaza, the full exchange of other prisoners and remains of dead civilians and soldiers and an extended five year period of non-hostilities.
Reports are that Israel has not agreed to the third stage and that it has only agreed to the second stage conditionally. Israel has maintained that it has the right to resume operations until its war aims are met. However, Hamas has announced that it is accepting the deal on the basis of U.S. guarantees that steps 2 and 3 will take place - even without formal Israeli acquiescence.
This "deal" will create quite a bit of division in Israel. The deal will leave Hamas in power and in place to rebuild and try to carry out another similar attack. It will allow Hamas and its leader Yehia Sinwar to claim a form of victory (or stalemate at least). And it will not bolster any hopes for having a non-Hamas - peace oriented Palestinian leadership in control of Gaza. In other words, the people of Gaza will continue to be stuck under the thumb of a brutal Hamas military dictatorship - even if many of them actually chose or supported that type of rule in Gaza.
On the other hand, if Israel does not find a way to release as many hostages as possible immediately, it will be risking the lives of all of these people - and failing in its most basic obligation to its citizenry to protect Israelis and to redeem them when they are taken hostage or held captive somewhere.
I have listened to many different sides of this debate from an Israeli perspective. I am torn. I am very concerned that we will continue to face the same ongoing cycle of violence from Hamas - and this deal will risk the lives of many Israelis in the future - who will face attacks from a large number of released murderers.
But, on balance, I believe that we must release anyone who is still alive at this point. If Israel refuses and proceeds with an invasion of Rafiah - that will involve the potential loss of hundreds of our soldiers. We may not get any of the hostages back. We are unlikely to be able to fully destroy Hamas. We will wind up with thousands of Palestinian casualties, many of whom will be innocent civilians. And perhaps, most significantly, we will face massive world pressure, especially from the U.S., the EU and other places - which may have a devastating cost for Israel in terms of world support, economic pressure and general isolation.
It is quite clear to me that Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a deal now - and certainly not this one. If the deal goes ahead, his government may well face a day of reckoning. Israel may wind up with an election sooner than anticipated. However, even though Netanyahu himself may not survive an election, the Israeli public could shift even further to the right as a result of all of the events since October 7th, 2023.
It is also worth noting that there is no deal with Hezbollah in the north yet - and tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes are still waiting to return. Many Israeli commentators have indicated that this will only take place after a major war with Hezbollah and Lebanon on Israel's northern border. I am hopeful that if there is a deal with Hamas, Hezbollah will also agree to some sort of deal - but so far, that is unclear.
As a postscript - while I write this blog - some Israeli officials are saying that Hamas has accepted a "new deal" put together by Qatar and Egypt that Israel has not yet even seen. Other announcements are that it was the same deal that Israel approved but the U.S. added additional assurances to Hamas that the war would not continue after the 40 days. I can't really tell you at this point what will happen - and there seems to be quite a mix of opinion from Israeli newscasters and commentators - some of whom think there will be a deal - and many who do not. At least not at this time.
Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day
Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah is one of the most poignant and difficult days on the Israeli calendar. Israelis attend at remembrance ceremonies across the country on the evening before. All restaurants and stores are closed from about 6 p.m. All Israeli television stations and radio stations are dedicated to Holocaust programming. There are documentaries, interviews, movies and other programs on all night.
We attended the ceremony in Ra'anana, which focused on the Jews of Kovel, Ukraine this year. Kovel was a town that had 20,000 Jews before World War II, the vast majority of whom were murdered by the Nazis between August and October 1941. Many were held in the city's large synagogue while knowing that they were about to be murdered. Some of them wrote their personal stories and prayers on the walls of the synagogue in their own blood, hours before being murdered. This was obviously a gut wrenching and difficult ceremony to attend.
Afterwards, we watched different Holocaust programming on TV including the National Remembrance Ceremony from Jerusalem and some other programs featuring the testimony of survivors along with interviews with their children and grandchildren.
One of the most moving pieces that I watched was an interview with former Israeli Chief Justice Aharon Barak. Barak is now 87. When he was 5 years old, he miraculously escaped the Ghetto by being hidden in a basket of soldiers' uniforms, along with his mother. He was hidden by a nearby Lithuanian farmer and his family for a short period of time - and then had to leave. Another farmer family, Jonas Mozuraitis and his wife Ona, took him and his mother (as well as a few others) and kept them all hidden for almost three years. The farmer built a double wall with a four foot space in between. Barak, his mother and the others, were hidden between the walls for entire days and allowed to come out only at night - where they would then spend time with the farmer's family including his children. Barak eventually came to Israel, studied law, became the Dean at the Hebrew University Law School and eventually the Chief Justice of the Israeli Supreme Court. The story is nothing short of incredible.
Years later, Barak was asked to meet with Lithuanian officials to provide advice on putting together a constitution - he accepted the invitation on condition that he could meet with the family that had hid him. Only the farmer's children were still alive. Barak had a question for them. "Why did you save us and risk your lives? he asked. "If the Nazis had discovered us they would have killed you." One of the children responded to Barak. "I don't understand your question. For us it wasn't a question. We were religious Catholics. We believe in our obligation to our fellow human beings, especially those in need. We saw people who needed help and we knew we had to help We believe you would do the same." Barak said the answer has kept him awake every night. "Would I have the courage and the moral clarity to do the same thing?" He has asked himself repeatedly. One of Barak's family members said - the answer is "absolutely." But Barak was crying while giving this explanation.
Barak, as you might recall, is the Israeli representative on the International Criminal Court which has been hearing the case brought by South Africa alleging that Israel has been carrying out a genocide. The case is simply outrageous and Barak spoke a bit about it (to the extent that he was able to do so). Israeli soldiers have been fighting back against Hamas in a war that Hamas declared on October 7th. While there have been a large number of civilian Palestinian casualties, the Israeli army has taken extraordinary steps to minimize those casualties. Israel is fighting an enemy that has set up bases in hospitals, mosques and dense residential areas. Hamas has transported its fighters in UNRWA vehicles and red cross ambulances. Sometimes they wear press badges. Hamas has fired missiles and then hidden underground in tunnels while exposing the civilian population to Israeli responses to the missile fire in those very same areas.
On the other hand, the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas were deliberate attacks involving massacres of civilians - including torture, burning victims alive, rape and all kinds of other atrocities. The notion that Israel would be charged with genocide for attacking Hamas in response to these crimes against humanity is ludicrous.
All of this context was explored this year during Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day by a wide range of speakers - who also sounded warning bells about the massive worldwide increase in antisemitisms and anti-Semitic attacks. A special focus has been on U.S. university campuses and some of the completely unacceptable responses by these universities to the targeting of Jewish students on campuses. Columbia University has, of course, been singled out as one of the worst offenders though the situation across the U.S. is quite grim, especially as viewed through the eyes of Jewish Israelis.
Of course Canada is not much better. The University of Toronto is continuing to allow a pro-Hamas encampment on its property - which is actively trying to prevent Jews from entering the area. Is this 2024?
Anti-Jewish attacks, rallies and other public antisemitic acts and comments, can all remind us, anytime, but especially on Holocaust Remembrance Day, how things that start like this can quickly descend into much much worse scenarios.
Lighter Note
On a lighter note (compared to everything that is going on here), I stayed up on Saturday night to watch the Maple Leafs blow yet another 7 game series and bow out of the playoffs in the first round - even with a team loaded with highly paid superstars. Once again, a tremendous, yet perhaps predictable disappointment for a Toronto Maple Leafs hockey fan. At least I saved some money on playoff tickets - though I was looking forward to being back in Toronto for Round 3 or Round 4 - even at an insane cost of $750 per ticket for my lowly purple seats if the Leafs had made it to the finals.
Here in Israel, the Yes Cable system was showing Leafs' playoff games on Sports 5+ - channel 59 - at 3 a.m. But wouldn't you know it - they showed games 1 to 6 but not game 7. So I had to stream the CBC using a VPN. That wound up working out fine. Unfortunately, no one wanted to stay up and watch with me - so I had to keep from falling asleep on my own. With overtime, I think the game ended around 6 a.m. on Sunday morning.
My other light note - is that Israel is getting a few days of unseasonal rain. The weather forecaster called it the "return of winter" - even though the temperature has not dipped much below 20C. Some winter...(says the Canadian...)
I will try to write more in the coming days as we have Yom Hazikaron (Israel Remembrance Day for Soldiers and Victims of Terror), Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day), the Eurovision Festival, and the pending invasion of Rafiah, Gaza or a possible cease fire deal. Lots to discuss.
I wish everyone the best of health - and peace.
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