Cease Fire, Hostage Release Deal and Other Updates

It has been a while since my last post - I think about three months.  So for all of you who have been waiting for a monthly (or weekly) blog - sorry about that.  I am just two busy.  But much has happened since October 2024.  At different times, I had thoughts of writing a blog - and some ideas - but I just couldn't get around to it.  As it is - I have a very packed schedule today - but I thought I would see how much I could put together in one hour or maybe two.

Hostage Deal/ Cease Fire

As you might have guessed, the first thing I have to write about is the apparent deal that Israel has reached with Hamas - as negotiated with Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. and others.  In case the Canadian readers are wondering - Canada does not seem to have played any role in these negotiations other than cheering on Hamas, backing anti-Israel U.N. resolutions etc.,

There is nobody on the Israeli side that I have heard that will say this is a "good" deal.  It is not. The apparent deal is staged over a 42 day period - by which time a total of 34 Israelis will have been released - though we don't know for sure how many of them are (or will be) alive.  Rumours are that the number is 23 living hostages.  In exchange, Israel will release some 3,000 Hamas terrorists, many of whom are serving jail sentences, will allow a dramatic increase in aid coming into Gaza and will pull back troops from many areas of Gaza - and eventually leave Gaza altogether.

Although the deal is highly problematic, it seems highly unlikely that Israel will get a better deal any time soon - and continued fighting will doom the 34 hostages - as well as hundreds of soldiers who will die in further fighting.  It is unclear that this continued fighting will wind up getting Israel a better deal.

If we have a chance to save the lives of these 34 hostages - and maybe more - there are still 98 being held, even though we do not know how many are still alive - then the State of Israel has an obligation to its citizens to save as many as possible.  Especially since we do  not have an alternate plan to either save them or end the war.

There are many different stories emerging about the negotiations - and it is really hard to say what is true and what is not.  Different sources from inside Israel and from the U.S. have indicated that a deal was almost completed in May 2024 but Netanyahu's government added additional conditions at the last  minute.  Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, both ministers in Bibi's government, have taken credit for "preventing" the deal at that time - which effectively means - taking credit for minimal gains in Gaza, the deaths of many Israeli soldiers and the deaths of many of the hostages who may have been released.

At the same time, Israel's accomplishments in Lebanon and Syria - and even Iran - were all significant and seem to have put Israel in a much better position geopolitically.  According to other reports, it is Hamas that was refusing a deal between June and  now - and has only now agreed to a similar deal because it has been weakened considerably.

I cannot give any authoritative answer to these questions. However, if there is any chance of saving these lives after so much time in captivity, I think it is the time is right for us to do so.

On the cynical side - many reports suggest that it was Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who broke the logjam this week by essentially reading Bibi the riot act and telling him that the war had to end now. It certainly seems to me that earlier reports are correct - that Bibi did not want to end the war early - at Trump's request - because it would be viewed as helping the Democrats with the election.  Of course there is no proof of that - but the timing does speak for itself in my view.  

The interesting point here is that Bibi and his far right cohorts - Smotrich and Ben-Gvir - were convinced that Trump would more or less let them do whatever they wanted when he became President - and "finish off" Hamas (whatever that might mean).  However, instead, Trump apparently told them, through his envoy, that the war had to end now - and this would be the end of the war.  Trump has indicated that he wants to move ahead with peace talks with Saudi Arabia - which means some kind of permanent arrangement for the Palestinians.  This is all terrifying to Ben Gvir and Smotrich who were hoping to build settlements in Gaza  and are adamantly insisting that they will be able to continue the war after the 42 day cease fire period.

All of this being said, there are still reports that the deal has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet or signed by both sides yet, even though it is supposed to take effect on Sunday at Noon (Israel time).  I believe that the deal will proceed but I guess anything can happen between now and then as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir try to stop the deal. (As a late postscript - Bibi has now apparently  delayed the start of the deal to Monday instead of Sunday - with no apparent reason - other than - so that the release of prisoners coincides with the inauguration of Mr. Trump....)

The Future of Bibi's Government

Two of Bibi's coalition partners, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, are threatening to leave the government if this hostage/cease fire deal goes ahead.  However, it is important to listen to them closely.  Ben-Gvir says he will officially leave the government but he will not vote against it or bring it down and will still support it from the outside.  Smotrich says he will leave the government if the army does not return to Gaza to fight some more - after the 42 day deal is complete.  Effectively, neither of these two coalition partners are promising to bring down the government now - they are only making idle threats at this point for political reasons.

Ultimately, the far-right parties have no interest in an election any time soon.  They are in key positions of power - controlling the police, the budget, and many other ministries.  They could risk all of that if an election were to be held, which is not supposed to take place until October 2026, unless the government falls before then.  I don't believe that they are about to cause the government to fall.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are also making a great deal of noise - and are continuing to demand a blanket exemption from the army.  It seems increasingly unlikely that this government will be able to get that bill passed - with growing opposition from Bibi's own party,  internally.  However, I don't believe that the ultra-Orthodox are interested in an election at this time - since they are enjoying a golden era of massive funding for their yeshivas, rabbinical institutions and other programs - which could face huge cuts after an election.

There are other two other major sources of tension.  Some of the far right extremists in Bibi's coalition -  Simcha Rotman and Yariv Levin - would like to bring back the "judicial reform" plan to the centre of the agenda.  Their logic is that the war is almost "over" and they should use this opportunity, while this far-right government is still in power - to take over the judiciary and implement changes that will favour their agenda.  This is creating tension within the Likud party itself - as even some of the Likud members cannot stomach these proposed changes.  It is hard to say what will happen here though I would imagine that some of the changes will go ahead and some will be "delayed."

The other source of tension is Bibi's criminal trial which may now proceed at a faster pace if the cease fire deal is implemented. I am not going to get into that too much at this point - other than to mention that he has had a few days of "examination-in-chief" - which means giving evidence that he and his lawyers have tailored for his benefit. Included in this testimony, Bibi gave evidence that he signs "all kinds of paperwork everyday and often has no idea what he is signing."  In fact, he testified that even today - he still does not understand some of the key deals that he signed (including deals  that allegedly favoured Bezeq - to the tune of hundreds of millions of shequels - in exchange for favourable publicity).

Suffice it to say that Bibi's cross-examination on all of this - if it ever occurs - should be fascinating - especially for lawyers....who greatly enjoy watching these types of proceedings.  From where I sit - it seems hard to imagine that Bibi will go ahead with the cross-examinations - rather than cut some sort of deal before they occur.  Given that his starting point - is "I had no idea what I was signing" - and that is normally evidence that might be adduced in a cross-examination not an examination in chief, it can only get worse in a cross-examination.  I have no idea where this will all end up - but I have predicted all along - and continue to maintain  - that this case will never go to a verdict.  Either a plea bargain deal will be reached at some point - or Bibi's coalition partners will succeed in somehow legislating an end to the trial.  I think the former is more likely but that remains to be seen.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, it has been incredibly difficult to get to Israel since October 7, 2023, with most airlines, including all of the major U.S. airlines and most of the European airlines, cancelling their service to Israel.  Only El Al and a few other Israeli airlines have continued to fly and earn record profits.

With the announcement of the pending deal, Lufthansa has just announced that it plans to resume flights very shortly.  I imagine many other airlines will follow suit.

An Air Canada representative told me that Air Canada was set to resume flights on April 1, 2025, assuming that this deal goes ahead and remains in place.

All of that is great news for those looking to fly to Israel.  Hopefully tourists will start to come back - and hopefully all of these guests that want to come for our family wedding will be able to get here easily and safely.

I am still planning to return on my next flight through Rome but perhaps my next flight back to Israel will be on an Air Canada direct flight - if they begin earlier than April.

Yemen and Iran

We had to get up at about 2:30 a.m. two nights ago to run to our "safe room" because of a missile alert.  Apparently the Houthis had fired some ballistic missiles at Israel from Yemen.  The Houthis have always said that they will stop firing missiles when the war with Hamas ends - but I do not know if Israel will agree to stop taking any action against these Yemeni terrorists.

Israel is also pushing for approval from the incoming Trump administration to conduct a joint operation and take out the Iranian nuclear program.  Certainly, it seems that Israel would prefer a regime change and an opportunity to try and work with a new Iranian regime and build peace between the two countries.  Israel is still hoping that this will be the outcome in Lebanon and in Syria with the destruction of much of Hezbollah.   It also seems that Trump would prefer to avoid a military confrontation with Iran.   Netanyahu has always indicated that it is the centrepiece of his government's program - to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This war has made that objective even more pressing.  

Nevertheless, it seems to me that Trump will try to use diplomatic means rather than military to deal with Iran and Israel will not be able to do anything alone.  This all remains to be seen.

Eurovision

For the past few years - Israel has used its reality TV singing contest - "the Next Star" to select Israel's choice for the annual Eurovision contest.  The show is now down to five contestants.  Unlike some years, there is no clear favourite and it should be an interesting finish next week (or the week after).  A very interesting story is that one of the favourites is an Israeli Arab Christian - named Valeri Hamati. She is extraordinarily talented though not "head and shoulders" above the field. It is particularly fascinating because some people have very strong views about having a Christian Arab represent Israel on the world stage at an international singing contest.  She almost lost in the last round but made it through to the final five.  I think that she would be a great contestant though I am not sure that she will win - and if she doesn't  - I would  not necessarily blame it on her background.  I would say that it is a close field.  If she was clearly above  the other contestants - it would have been really interesting to see.  But her last performance was less than earth-shattering and at least two of the other contestants delivered excellent presentations.  We will know soon enough.

Movies

I am trying to do my best to catch up on all of the Oscar nominated movies before the Oscars.  Of course, the list of nominations is not out yet - so we can only speculate.  But I have seen three movies that are almost certain to be on the list.  Anora, Wicked and, most recently "A Real Pain."

I watched A Real Pain this week.  I thought it was really well done.  It is the story of two first cousins who join up with a tour of Poland and its concentration camps. There are many themes that really resonated with me (as someone who has ancestors who were killed in these camps).  The movie covers a variety of themes - including the manner in which a tour guide should lead this type of group (we have a family member who is a tour guide as you may know), the effect on people of visiting the death camps, the interaction with Polish civilians, and issues of depression and mental illness.  I know it probably sounds like a real downer from that description but I would strongly recommend it.

I am not going to discuss the others for now - I have to leave some material for future blogs, though I really enjoyed Wicked and would have loved to go to one of the "sing-along" performances of it.

Sports

Not related to Israel at all, since sports events are not really followed here nearly as much as in North America - other than major soccer events - like the  World Cup etc., but nevertheless I have to add just a couple of comments.

Since I grew up (since the age of 12 anyways), closest to Buffalo, I have always been a Buffalo Bills' fan.  As you might know, Buffalo played in the Super Bowl four years  in a row - and  has the distinct honour of being able to say that it lost all four times.

But here we are - with the Bills playing this Sunday - still having a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.  They are playing a very tough opponent - the Baltimore Ravens - but I will be watching the game starting at 1:30 a.m.  on Sunday night.

I doubt I would actually want to go the game in person and sit for 3 hours in -15C weather - even if I were in Toronto and could get to Buffalo.  It  is much more comfortable to fire up the barbecue in 21C weather and watch in optimal conditions.  But I am hoping for the best.

I might also stay up and watch the NCAA football final on Monday night - but I don't have a particular horse in that race - other than to cheer for Ohio State on behalf of my family members who live in Columbus.

Conclusion

At this point, my conclusion has to be that I am hoping for the return of all of the hostages - and that they will be able to get the support they need to return to their lives. They will need medical, psychological, emotional and all kinds of other support after this devastating experience but we are hoping for the best for them.  Israel will also have to endure a large number of funerals as the bodies of many dead hostages are likely to be returned.  This will be very traumatic.

I am also hoping for the safety of our soldiers - who are generally recruited civilians from the Israeli population called to serve their country. To date, a total of 840 Israeli soldiers have been killed including 405 in combat operations after the start of the war.

Of course I would also like to see an end to this conflict but we will require a much more significant change. There cannot really be an end to the conflict unless the Palestinians have leadership that is committed to a non-violent long-term solution to the conflict.  If Hamas remains in power - and that seems to be the case with this current deal - it is hard to imagine that we will see any kind of long term peace any time soon.  But maybe with big changes in Lebanon and Syria - there is a glimmer of hope that we will see some major changes in the region.  If changes do occur - and are attributable to this war - that may well be viewed as a long term gain from the war - despite the terrible cost that it exacted from Israelis and Palestinians.

Wishing everyone peace and the best of health.

Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.

June 2024 Blog - Shavuot and Beyond

 

These are challenging times to write this kind of blog.  Israel is in a very difficult period - facing challenges of all sorts.  We are in the midst of one of Israel's most difficult wars - with Hamas, Hezbollah and, primarily, Iran (even though an active Israel-Iran war has not yet broken out directly).  We have more than 120 hostages still being held by Hamas and its partners. We do not know for sure how many of these hostages are still alive. 

Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced and have still not returned to their homes since  October 7, 2023.  Many cities along Israel's northern border and south of those areas are virtual ghost towns with only the military present. Many cities and towns near the Gaza border are also uninhabited. There are rocket, missile and drone attacks from Hezbollah in the north daily - and many have been lethal - for soldiers and for civilians.  Many soldiers are dying and still more are being injured each day.  The situation in Gaza itself is awful for Gazans, though that is somewhat predictable when you launch an all out war.  We also have our fair share of political disarray with no clearly defined direction for how to proceed with this war, what the "end game" is and how long all of this might take.  

Despite all of this, I am still covering a few different areas in my blog - since ultimately, life is like that.  There are difficult and challenging events - even horrible occurrences - and sometimes - alongside those events - other happy, even joyous occasions.  There are many serious things to write about - and if I were a news journalist - I suppose I would simply fill my blog with those topics.  But my intent is to cover some news highlights and commentary and some other observations, comments and thoughts about life in Israel or related topics - sometimes only tangentially related. Despite the ongoing war - and the fact that I could fill the blog with war news, I would rather continue writing this blog the way I have for the past 15 years or so.  So here are a few different items which may or may not be connected.

Travelling Back to Israel

It is still hit or miss as to which international  airlines have restored their service to Toronto.  Air Canada had indicated that it would resume flights to Israel in August (and some people that I spoke to last night sounded hopeful about this).  But Air Canada has postponed or cancelled its resumption of flights to Israel a few times now.   I don't really believe that they will restore service until the war is "over" or there is some semblance of a cease fire in place.  And I am really not sure when that will be. 

El Al, as you might recall, cancelled its direct service to Toronto some time ago  - unrelated to the war.  So there are no options for direct flights from Toronto to Tel-Aviv currently.

I have written in past blogs about some of the routes that I have taken since October 7 2023.  I have combined Air Canada and El Al transferring through Europe in Amsterdam (awful), Rome (much better) and London (big hassle).  I have also travelled the whole way or with partner connections on KLM (awful), Delta (not bad) and Air France (great between Israel and Paris - but not so nice between Paris and Toronto).  Overall, it has been a big hassle and has made travel much more tiring and challenging.   

Just before Shavuot, I was finally able to get a fully integrated Star Alliance flight - with a connection and this was certainly the best flight I have had since October.  The check-in and security in Terminal 1 at Pearson Airport are so much easier than what goes on at Terminal 3.  For my most recent flight - it took me a total of about 12 minutes from the time I got to the airport until the time I was at the international lounge - including baggage  drop off and security.  For this type of trip - that is, as we say in Yiddish, a "mechayeh." (something very pleasing).

I was very happy to be back on Air Canada - which is a step above many other airlines  in terms of boarding process, amenities on board, etc.,  especially when compared to Air France, KLM or El Al. The connection in Vienna was very easy.  We arrived at the gate and were let out through a connections area  right into the departure gates area.  No supplementary security or passport security  - like in Paris or Amsterdam.  The Israel gate was right nearby.  My connection time was only 1 hour and 50 minutes - but I had more than an hour to go to the lounge in Vienna (and have some pretty decent coffee).

So hopefully my next few flights will be connections with Air Canada through Vienna, Frankfurt or Zurich so I can stay with the Star Alliance partners and get the benefit of a relatively seamless connection.  Of course it is very difficult to predict whether all of these airlines will continue to fly to Israel and what might happen.

If you are planning to come here and do not want to risk things - your best bet is probably a European connection to an El Al flight - even  if that is not the most comfortable or economical.  It is likely to be secure and reliable.

Shavuot

I did not leave myself too much time between arriving and the  start of Shavuot - which is only one day in Israel.  Like so many other Jewish holidays, Shavuot is associated with food - in this case dairy - especially cheese blintzes and cheesecake.  So I did manage to make some blintzes.  A shout out to Tori Avey and her wonderful website - which has so many great Jewish recipes.  This cheese blintz recipe is just like the recipe that I had from my grandmother z"l, though my grandmother used to add raisins as well.  I have made several other dishes using recipes from Tori Avey's site including a delicious apple honey cake, some lemon bars and a few other items - and they have all been great.  One of my favourite sites.

Ultimately, Shavuot is not just  about the food - we do commemorate our receipt of the Torah - and it is customary to study all night on Erev Shavuot.  At my former shul in Toronto, there used to be an amazing Shavuot program.  We would study for about 45 minutes to an hour, take a short break, then sing for 30-45 minutes, then eat.  We would repeat this all night - until it was time for an early Shacharit service at 6 a.m.  During each break, there would be a different food item. One break might be ice cream sundaes.  Another break might be a selection of wraps.  Maybe one break would be just fruit.  I have managed to find a few different all night study sessions here in Israel over the years - but nothing that was nearly as fun or stimulating.  This year I was too jet lagged.  So it was a dairy dinner with the family and some discussion about everything going on here - but no all night study session.

The "Situation"

I mentioned some of what we are dealing with above.  Yesterday was one of those disastrous days  - 10 soldiers were killed in Gaza - 8 of them when an RPG hit their "Tiger" vehicle.  Their ages ranged from 19 to 49.  Unfortunately, reports like this have become all too commonplace.  These soldiers are mostly recruits - people from all walks of life who perform their mandatory military service - either during the three year period between the ages of 19 and 22 - or as "reserve" soldiers - called to duty afterwards.

Since October 7, 2023, 659 soldiers have been killed and close to 4,000 injured according to the Israeli government site.  

As you know, there is all kinds of world pressure on Israel - from Europe, the U.S. and many other places to end the war - but Hamas has not agreed to any kind of cease fire arrangement that would be acceptable to Israel (or even to the U.S.) and so the war continues.   Meanwhile, there is no indication that a deal with Hezbollah in the north is close - and there is a great deal of talk - that Israel will soon be in a full blown war with Hezbollah/Lebanon/Iran in the north.  That is not to say that we are not in a war right now - we most certainly are.  However, it has not become an all out full blown war - perhaps due to world pressure.  The situation is untenable for Israel.  People cannot return to their homes.  Hezbollah is launching attacks daily - using drones, missiles and RPGs and has set several places on fire.  Although Israel has been attacking sites in different places in Lebanon and Syria (according to news reports), it has not yet taken the kind of action that would be needed to make the northern border safe for return for  Israeli residents.

Meanwhile, the destruction in Gaza is undoubtedly immense but Hamas has not yet been defeated nor has it shown a  willingness to release the hostages and end the war.  Declaring a "Palestinian State" like some countries have done (see Ireland, Spain and Norway) does not seem like a practical way to deal with these issues.  Does that mean recognizing Hamas to run the state?  Will it be demilitarized?  Israel does need to work with the world and the Palestinians to come up with different potential solutions for Gaza - but solutions that will not involve ongoing military and terrorist attacks by Hamas.

Some Knesset members in the current government like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich seem to want to occupy Gaza completely and run it like the West Bank  - with Israeli settlements throughout.  This was the proposal of a former  Knesset member, Moshe Feiglin, on TV last night.

But years ago, even the hawkish Ariel Sharon, came to the conclusion that it was untenable for Israel to continue to run Gaza.  Many  on the right are now blaming his policies for the "Hamasization" of Gaza - but most of what has developed in Gaza has taken place over the past 15-20 years - while Israel has had right wing governments (mainly).  I cannot accept the idea that occupying Gaza and building settlements throughout will bring Israel long term peace  or security.

Of course at the same time, I heard someone from the Israeli "centre-left" yesterday say that many people in Israel in the centre and even some on the "left" have come to the conclusion, post October 7, 2023, that it is "either us or them."  

I am not sure that anyone really has a solution right now - one that would work for Israelis and Palestinians.  Maybe there isn't one.  But we will have to try and find one.  Surely that will be better for both sides than spending the next 100 years killing each other - and perhaps even more time than that.

The Government

Israel continues to be government by an elected 64-56 seat coalition (with 64 seats in a Knesset of 120 members) which is made up of the Likud party (Netanyahu's party), two ultra-religious ("Haredi") parties - one Ashkenazi, one Sephardi and a collection of ultra-nationalist religious parties.  None of these coalition members seem ready to cause the government to fall - irrespective of how popular the government  may or may not be currently.  It can continue to govern until October 2026 if nothing changes.

One of the priorities of this government is to keep its ultra-orthodox coalition members happy.  So even though Israel is talking about a manpower shortage in the army - and floating the idea of extending military service for recruits and calling up more reserves - the government also put a bill through first reading in the Knesset this week to bolster the exemption from military service for the ultra-orthodox.  

Many Israelis are infuriated - even many who support Netanyahu's party.  It seems incredibly tone deaf for Netanyahu to read reports of soldiers being killed and injured - and on the very same day - be seem smiling with the Ultra-Orthodox Knesset members while they pass a bill to have their constituency evade the draft.  This may well be an issue that will spell big trouble for this governing coalition when there is an eventual election.

The Heat

All of this, of course, comes at a time when we are entering peak summer weather season.  I heard a forecast on the radio the other day.  They didn't give any actual temperatures - just said that it was going to be between "very hot and extremely hot."  They also said it would be "hotter than seasonal."  I don't know what that actually meant - but reading the reports - it was between 35 and 40c.  It must be unbearable for our soldiers these days - with all of their equipment - in the southern parts of Israel.

Sports

I don't have too much in the way of Sports news to mention here.  Israelis are all excited about watching the 2024 Euros which kicked off on Friday.  Israel did not make it in.  Israelis are also looking forward to watching the Israeli football (soccer) team participate in the Paris Olympics.  Israel has rarely qualified previously so this will be exciting.

Personally, as you might recall, I am much more of an ice hockey fan.  So I was up watching the Edmonton Oilers play at 3 a.m.  Israel time yesterday.  The last Canada-based team. Edmonton was losing 3-0 in the series - and it was looking likely that they would simply go out quietly.  But they roared back and won the game 8-1 - setting up another elimination game in Florida on Tuesday night at which the Stanley Cup could be presented if Florida wins the game.  Chat (Community Hebrew Academy of Toronto) graduate Zach Hyman is leading the playoffs in goal scoring with 14 goals.  I  haven't looked that up to check - but it might be the highest goal total for a Jewish player ever in one NHL playoff season.

My other comment for the non-hockey fans - is that we are also watching one of the greatest hockey players ever - Connor McDavid.  During this year's playoffs - he has 38 points - which is the 5th highest total in one season's playoffs ever.  The record holder is, of course, Wayne Gretzky, with 47.  So it would still take a minor miracle for McDavid to get 9 or 10 more points - since that would probably also mean helping his team to come back and win three games in a row - after being down 3-0.  (Something that is almost impossible in hockey).

How does this related to my blog?  Israeli singer Hanan Ben-Ari wrote a song a few years ago called "Our life is strawberries."  The first part of the song was a litany of complaints about how difficult life is in Israel - the cost of living, the military situation, the traffic etc.,  But towards the end of the song - he switched to thankfulness for all of the great things in life.  As an observant Orthodox Jew, he mentioned Shabbat - and of course, family, friends, togetherness.  And - the "privilege of being able to watch Lionel  Messi play."  So I am not as excited about Messi - (since I am less of a soccer fan) - but the privilege of being able to watch McDavid play (and players like him) is an amazing thing.  

Canada Comments

I was in Canada over the past few weeks and there are lots of crazy things going on connected to Israel and the Jewish community.  There have been several attacks on synagogues across the country - vandalism, attempted arson etc., There is an ongoing "encampment" on the University of Toronto grounds that has still not been cleared out.  And a bunch of protesters were cleared out by police using tear gas in Montreal - after taking over the president's office at McGill University in Montreal. Very few Canadian political leaders are speaking out in support of the Canadian Jewish community with some notable exceptions - including Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and a few others.  On the other hand - the Prime Minister has been moving Canada's Israel policies closer and closer to those of countries like Ireland, Spain and Norway.  The leader of the NDP, Jagmit Singh, has been spouting all kinds of anti-Israel diatribes.  And for some reason, union leaders across the country  have been  at the forefront of anti-Israeli activism - even though they are much more likely to find common cause with Israelis than with Hamas supporters - on a whole range of issues - from social equality, gender equality, worker rights  - to freedom of expression and other issues.

Toronto's annual Walk for Israel was a bright spot for the Jewish diaspora, with estimates ranging up to 50,000 people attending.  There were counter-protesters - who showed up wearing face masks and keffiyehs. Some of these "protesters" arranged to meet in Jewish neighbourhoods in Toronto and tried to follow participants of the Walk back to their homes. Fortunately, the Toronto police were in full force  and managed to prevent the situation from deteriorating.   There are videos of these interactions - on links provided by the National Post and other publications.

The Mayor of Toronto, Olivia Chow, elected to avoid the event - and instead, she attended a "Grill Cheese Festival" in Etobicoke.  Mayor Chow is not a big supporter of the Toronto Jewish community, to say the least.  And the current Canadian Prime Minister, Trudeau, is probably the least supportive Canadian Prime Minister that we have seen in many  years - perhaps since his late father, Pierre Trudeau.

To change to another positive note - I understand that a group of Toronto lawyers are planning a solidarity trip to Israel in September - and are hoping to have 25-30 participants.  They plan to visit the areas of the October 7, 2023 attacks, meet with politicians, families of hostages, and others.  I could provide a link to further information on request if anyone is interested in attending.

So even though Israelis living in Canada and other members of the Jewish community are being threatened all over the country (and in many places around the world), there are some positive and hopeful events.   

I cannot say that things look that positive from here right now but I don't think we have any choice but to do whatever we can to try and improve things - to hope that there is some sort of feasible, peaceful solution that can be reached and that we can restore things soon to some level of sanity.  All while sharing information with people about what is really going on here. 

With that, I wish everyone all the best and welcome any comments or thoughts you might have.

Travel Comments and Israel Update May 2024

I am writing this blog as I fly back to Toronto from Israel via a circuitous route of Amsterdam and Paris. A fairly crazy route but $1,500Cdn less in economy than flying any other available route (other than via Ethiopia which didn't interest me).  I thought I would write a bit about the routes I have been taking back and forth and then deal with some other issues.

Flights Between Tel-Aviv and Toronto these days - via KLM/Air France or El Al

It is a close competition between KLM and El Al as to which is the more unpalatable flight between Israel and Europe. KLM uses bare-bones Boeing 737 planes for the 4 hour 50 minute flight from Tel Aviv to Amsterdam. There are no entertainment screens or plugs for charging devices. No wi-fi available, even for texting. The airplane configuration is 3-3 and it's very cramped. The seats don't recline. The "meal service" is one sandwich (served warm) of kosher egg and vegan cheese with tomato - served to everyone. In fairness, slightly better than the El Al offering of a yam and gouda microwaved sandwich but only slightly.

There is also drink service so I was able to get a red wine - a South African Shiraz that was passable. That is one up on El Al which only distributes bottles of water.

This would be fine for a 2-3 hour flight - but for a five hour flight it is really unpleasant. Air France, by contrast, for flights between Tel Aviv and Paris - about 4 hours - uses beautiful new planes with wi-fi, entertainment systems, full meal service and full drink service - even cognac.

Given the circumstances in Israel these days, I am not about to complain too much. But there is a major difference among the airlines that are still flying between Europe and Tel Aviv.

I should mention that Air Canada recently cancelled all flights through August. United and Delta are scheduled to restart sooner. As far as I understand, ITA (Italy), Lufthansa, Austrian and Swiss are all flying to Israel - along with Lot Polish and Emirates/ Fly Dubai.  There may be others.

If you are planning to fly to Israel any time soon - and you want to be sure (or almost sure) that your flight will take place, a connection with El Al is probably the only itinerary you can really count on these days. (Though an economy ticket, if you can find one, might cost $2,500-$3,000). Other airlines are likely to be cheaper and more comfortable. But they may not actually fly.

Landing in Amsterdam is very inconvenient. The immigration area is understaffed and overcrowded. It can take 45-60 minutes to get through immigration. This is a huge contrast with Rome and London, both of which have reasonable immigration procedures in place.  I would strongly advise against any kind of short connection through Amsterdam.

For the rest of the route, I had a stopover in Paris. We were required to go through French exit customs before getting to the gate - which was almost as bad as Dutch immigration.  Long lineups, understaffed area and some out of order machines.  For all of those people who complain about Canadian airport immigration incompetence, try going through Amsterdam or Paris and then report back.

The Air France flight back from Paris to Toronto was incredibly crowded - one of those 3-4-3 configurations (in what felt like it was designed for a 3-3-3).  It was very uncomfortable.  The English version of the announcements was unintelligible.  The entertainment selection was lame and the wi-fi was spotty.  I guess you can tell that I miss being able to take direct Air Canada flights to Tel-Aviv on the 787 Dreamliners but, as I said, these are not the world's worst problems.

For my next trip back, I have booked a connection through Vienna using Air Canada and Austrian.  I was planning to come back on a direct Air Canada flight - but these have been postponed until late August at the earliest.  It seems like Air Canada is not likely to restart its flights to Tel-Aviv until the war is over.  And that does not look like it is going to be anytime soon.

April/May Holidays and Commemorations

We have completed observances of Pesach, Yom Hashoah, Yom Hazikaron and Yom Haatzmaut. I have written about these days in earlier blogs.

Yom Haatzmaut was the strangest national observance. The official government sponsored event was taped without an audience and broadcast on the evening of Yom Haatzmaut. It is usually held as a live event. The minister responsible, Miri Regev, one of Netanyahu's most reliable "yes people" announced that this was due to "security concerns.". Mainly that seems to mean the risk of Netanyahu getting booed at the ceremony.

In my view, however, there was one highlight. Israeli superstar Omer Adam, sang the song "One connected Human Tapestry" (my preferred translation). "If one of us dies, a part of all of us dies. And if one of us dies, that person takes a part of us with them." I have included the link - hopefully it works.  It begins with an interpretive dance, commemorating the October 7, 2023 massacres.  Midway through the song, families of victims of the Hamas massacres joined Omer Adam and sang with him. It was chilling, emotional and one of the most intense things I have seen in quite a while. The song was originally recorded by Chava Alberstein (one of my personal favourites) who included a version of the song on a commemorative album after the assassination of former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Omer Adam's rendition was outstanding, though tear evoking for sure.

We also watched the annual event hosted by Eidan Raichel, which I have written about previously. Raichel travels around the country to army bases to pick 10 soldiers to sing with him on Yom Haatzmaut. The soldiers or their friends have submitted demo tapes in advance. Raichel surprises then at their bases and invites them to sing at the main event. He also invites their friends and family members to attend. At the end of the evening, he picks one winner to record a song with him. He introduces each soldier, shows a video clip about them and speaks to them in a way that exudes empathy and genuine appreciation. One of my favourite events of the year.

The Situation (in Hebrew "Hamatzav")

Israel remains at war on several fronts. I don't see any near term resolution to any of this.

The Gaza front remains the focus of attention. Israel is fighting to defeat the Hamas regime - and eliminate Hamas' military threat (by capturing or killing the Hamas leadership) while releasing as many living hostages as possible.

Hamas continues to hold 128 hostages (though some may no longer be alive). It also continues to fire rockets at Israel and has vowed to carry out more attacks like the October 7 massacres.

Israel simply cannot allow this to continue and cannot agree to a cease fire deal that does not ensure that this won't happen again. There is heavy fighting now in the last major Hamas stronghold of Rafah (Rafiah in Hebrew/Arabic). Deaths of Israeli soldiers are being reported every day - and there are also many Hamas casualties. There are also Palestinian civilian casualties.

I have no idea, quite frankly, whether a ,"victory" is actually achievable - and if so, what the cost will be - in terms of the number of Israeli soldiers, civilians, Hamas fighters and Palestinian civilians. Israel likens this to the fight to rid Germany of the Nazis. The idea is that total victory is the only option when dealing with a genocidal, dictatorial regime.

Perhaps this is a proper analogy if the Palestinians can be left with a new leadership committed to resolving things peacefully with Israel coupled with a rebuilding and education plan. But so far, there is no such emerging Palestinian leadership option. And, the current Israeli government does not seem to be Interested in backing or bolstering such a government.

Contrary to the South African allegations, bolstered by Ireland, Norway, Turkey and some other countries, there is no genocide. Israel is not massacring civilians. (If you want to discuss genocide - check out what is going on currently in Sudan).

Moreover, Israel did not start this war (unlike Russia which launched an unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine).

It was Hamas that attacked Israel - murdering, raping, and torturing civilians on Oct 7, 2023. No country in the world would allow this to occur without taking every possible action in response to ensure that it does not happen again. (Hamas spokespeople have vowed that they will do the same thing over and over again).

Gaza is not an enormous area though it is a very densely populated place. I do not think this can continue indefinitely. I would imagine that Israel will soon conquer the area and take control or reach some kind of brokered agreement. But this may still take several months. And there needs to be some kind of plan for what happens next.

Who will actually govern Gaza? Who will rebuild it? Who will fund it? Who will ensure that it is demilitarized? Clearly it can't be Hamas. And it can't be UNRWA, which is essentially Hamas. At this point, I really have no idea.  

Waiting in the wings, Israel is on the precipice of a massive war with Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps Iran. There is a very active war taking place right now, as we speak.  Northern Israel has been evacuated and many of the border towns (like Kiryat Shemona) are ghost towns, filled only with army personnel.  Hezbollah continues to attack Israel with drones, rpgs, rockets, and all sorts of other weaponry.  Israel continues to fight back. But Hezbollah has not yet started using its medium and long range missiles - and Israel has not launched an all out attack against Hezbollah.  Most Israeli commentators seem to feel that this war is inevitable.  The only way out is some sort of agreement whereby Hezbollah agrees to move its forces well back from the Israeli border (which was part of a previous cease fire agreement).  But so far Hezbollah has shown no inclination to do so.

The latest "front" is the growing publicity and public opinion front being fought by Israel against an increasingly large number of countries.  The latest salvo as you know, came from Ireland, Norway and Spain, which decided to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian State.  I really don't think that this decision is likely to assist anyone.  It will bolster supporters of Hamas and and other violent Palestinian groups - who will view this decision as a "win" emanating from the Hamas massacres. That will obviously encourage more violence.  It will also antagonize Israel and diminish the credibility of these countries as partners in any negotiation.  I saw one commentary that suggested that Israel should recognize the Catalan Independence movement or the Basque separatist movement in response to Spain's decision.  

This new front that Israel is facing - worldwide pressure - is in the arenas of political, economic and public opinion.  Backers of Hamas have used social media to circulate fake videos, disinformation, TikTok clips and all means of other trickery to distort the events that took place on October 7, 2023 and that have taken place since then.

You may have read one of the most recent examples - that some people - as a joke - put up a post that the Iranian leader was killed by an Israeli Mossad agent named "Eli Copter."  Apparently, this spun out of control and Israel was being accused on all sorts of channels (including some mainstream news media) of having assassinated the Iranian leader.  Yes, the crash was caused by "Eli Copter" - or in English, Helicopter - as in a Helicopter failure.  But there is nothing to suggest the Mossad was in any way involved - and I doubt there is an Israeli agent named "Eli Copter" - though there are probably lots of "Elis".  

Although the current Israeli leadership is not helping the situation, there is a clear worldwide current of outrageous and ridiculous anti-Israel activity.  The proposed criminal charges against Israeli leaders are a massive overreach - and seem to create a new standard of allegedly criminal activity - just for Israel and its leaders - even while there are so many worse conflicts taking place throughout the world - and many in situations in which civilians are being actively targeted and murdered. (That is clearly not happening in Gaza). 

There have also been waves of anti-Semitic incidents throughout the world including firebombs thrown at synagogues, physical attacks against Jews, and of course, anti-Israel (and often, quite clearly, anti-Jewish) encampments with Nazi symbolism and rhetoric calling for Jews to be murdered.  It's a crazy world out there for sure.  For those who might attack Israel and say that Zionism is a racist ideology or that Zionism (and the Jewish State) is unnecessary - that the Jewish people do not need a homeland - the events since October 7, 2023, throughout the world, have demonstrated that Israel is, right now, one of the only places that is really willing to defend its Jewish population.  

At the same time, to ensure its long-term survival, Israel will need to resolve many outstanding issues.  It will need to come up with some kind of long-term peaceful solution with the Palestinians.  It will need to resolve its own internal issues, that were raging before the war and continue to simmer on a back-burner even while the war continues on.  How to reconcile being a "Jewish State" and a "Democratic State."  How to ensure equality for all of its citizens. Whether to finally put a constitution in place.  How the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court should be delineated - and what the boundaries of the Court's jurisdiction should be.  How to manage anticipated demographic changes.  These are all incredibly complex challenges facing the country - but they are also challenges that the country will only be able to address once this war has ended.

Sports and other Competitions

To end on a positive note, I wanted to mention that a high school team from Binyamina, Israel, recently won an international robotics competition in Houston, Texas.  This was Israel's first win in that particular competition in 20 years.  

Israel also recently won a gold medal in its division in ice hockey at the international ice hockey Federation's U20 World Championship - division III group A.  Israel will now move up to Division II, Group B for next year's tournament.

Israel's Eden Golan finished in 5th place in the Eurovision signing competition.  She was able to do so by winning a massive share of the audience vote - even while the anti-Israel judging panel gave Golan miserably low scores.  This all came after the judging panel insisted that Israel change the lyrics and title of its song from "October Rain" to "Hurricane" to make the song "less political."  And of course, the Eurovision committee held its ground and refused to give in to public pressure from Ireland and other anti-Israel countries to oust Israel from the competition because of the war in Gaza. The Irish performer at the actual competition performed some kind of dark simulated satanic ritual on stage marked with violence, nastiness and, in my view, horrible "music."  It was comforting to see that the worldwide audiences weren't buying it and heavily supported Israel over Ireland.

My last sports note is that the Israeli men's soccer team is scheduled to participate in this year's Paris Olympics.   Israel last participated in this tournament in 1976.  Israel will be in Group D with games against Japan, Paraguay and Mali with the first matches schedule for July 25, 2024.  I have to say that I am quite looking forward to watching these games.  Of course some countries are lobbying FIFA to kick Israel out of the tournament.  Hopefully, they will not succeed.  Although one of my close family members routinely complains that watching soccer is about as exciting as "watching paint dry" - I actually quite enjoy international football (soccer) tournaments.  Granted these games are not as exciting as the Stanley Cup playoffs (which the Toronto Maple Leaf exited so unceremoniously) but seeing Israel compete in the Olympic soccer tournament on the world stage will be fun.  Hopefully the French security will be up to the challenge to provide proper protection for the athletes.

Until that starts, I'll be cheering for the Edmonton Oilers, the last standing Canadian hockey team in the final four - hoping that a Canadian team can finally win the Cup and bring it back to Canada. In Israel those games start at about 4 a.m. and run until around 7 a.m. (without overtime).  But here in Canada for a bit, I will get to watch some games at reasonable times.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah 2024 - Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day and other comments

On this day of Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah (Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day), there are many things to write about.  I was planning to limit this blog to a focus on the Holocaust.  But in light of all of the events taking place in Israel, I had to add some additional comments and discussion. 

Possible Ceasefire Deal?

A few minutes ago, the Israeli press began reporting that Hamas has advised negotiators that it has "accepted" the latest Qatari-Egyptian-U.S. proposal for a three-staged cease fire.  It is unclear whether this will actually go ahead.  But here are, among other things, a few events that took place today.  First of all, Hamas announced earlier that it was leaving negotiations and that it could not trust the Egyptians to broker a deal.  Israel announced that it was asking 100,000-200,000 civilians in Rafiah, Gaza to leave the area so that it could conduct operations in that area (the last remaining stronghold for Hamas military divisions).  

It is noteworthy that Israel did not announce a major call up of its reserves in preparation for this telegraphed incursion.  Nevertheless, hours later, Hamas announced "officially" that it was accepting the cease fire terms.

I do not have the detailed document here - but among other things - this is what is apparently included:

1. 33 kidnapped live Israelis would be returned over a period of 40 days - mainly including women, the elderly and some injured captives. In exchange, Israel would release approximately 100 convicted Hamas murderers and 600 other Hamas prisoners.

2. After the 40 days, Hamas would release additional hostages including soldiers and other civilians in exchange for further releases of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails.  

3.  There is a third stage of agreeing to the rehabilitation of Gaza, the full exchange of other prisoners and remains of dead civilians and soldiers and an extended five year period of non-hostilities.

Reports are that Israel has not agreed to the third stage and that it has only agreed to the second stage conditionally.  Israel has maintained that it has the right to resume operations until its war aims are met.  However, Hamas has announced that it is accepting the deal on the basis of U.S. guarantees that steps 2 and 3 will take place - even without formal Israeli acquiescence.   

This "deal" will create quite a bit of division in Israel.  The deal will leave Hamas in power and in place to rebuild and try to carry out another similar attack.  It will allow Hamas and its leader Yehia Sinwar to claim a form of victory (or stalemate at least).  And it will not bolster any hopes for having a non-Hamas - peace oriented Palestinian leadership in control of Gaza.  In other words, the people of Gaza will continue to be stuck under  the thumb of a brutal Hamas military dictatorship - even if many of them actually chose or supported that type of rule in Gaza.

On the other hand, if Israel does not find a way to release as many hostages as possible immediately, it will be risking the lives of all of these people - and failing in its most basic obligation to its citizenry to protect Israelis and to redeem them when they are taken hostage or held captive somewhere.

I have listened to many different sides of this debate from an Israeli perspective. I am torn.  I am very concerned that we will continue to face the same ongoing cycle of violence from Hamas - and this deal will risk the lives of many Israelis in the future - who will face attacks from a large number of released murderers.

But, on balance, I believe that we must release anyone who is still alive at this point.  If Israel refuses and proceeds with an invasion of Rafiah - that will involve the potential loss of hundreds of our soldiers.  We may not get any of the hostages back.  We are unlikely to be able to fully destroy Hamas.  We will wind up with thousands of Palestinian casualties, many  of whom will be innocent civilians.  And perhaps, most significantly, we will face massive world pressure, especially from the U.S., the EU  and other places - which may have a devastating cost for Israel in terms of world support, economic pressure and general isolation.

It is quite clear to me that Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a deal now - and certainly not this one.  If the deal goes ahead, his government may well face a day of reckoning.  Israel may wind up with an election sooner than anticipated.  However, even though Netanyahu himself may not survive an election, the Israeli public could shift even further to the right as a result of all of the events since October 7th, 2023.  

It is also worth noting that there is no deal with Hezbollah in the north yet - and tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes are still waiting to return.  Many Israeli commentators have indicated that this will only take place after a major war with Hezbollah and Lebanon on Israel's northern border.  I am hopeful that if there is a deal with Hamas, Hezbollah will also agree to some sort of deal - but so far, that is unclear.

As a postscript - while I write this blog - some Israeli officials are saying that Hamas has accepted a "new deal" put together by Qatar and Egypt that Israel has not yet even seen.  Other announcements are that it was the same deal that Israel approved but the U.S. added additional assurances to Hamas that the war would not continue after the 40 days.  I can't really tell you at this point what will happen - and there seems to be quite a mix of opinion from Israeli newscasters and commentators - some of whom think there will be a deal - and many who do not.  At least not at this time.

Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day

Yom  Hashoah v'Hagvurah is one of the most poignant and difficult days on the Israeli calendar.  Israelis attend at remembrance ceremonies across the country on the evening before.  All restaurants and stores are closed from about 6 p.m.  All Israeli television stations and radio stations are dedicated to Holocaust programming.  There are documentaries, interviews, movies and other programs on all night.  

We attended the ceremony in Ra'anana, which focused on the Jews of Kovel, Ukraine this year. Kovel was a town that had 20,000 Jews before World War II, the vast majority of whom were murdered by the Nazis between August and October 1941.  Many were held in the city's large synagogue while knowing that they were about to be murdered.  Some of them wrote their personal stories and prayers on the walls of the synagogue in their own blood, hours before being murdered.  This was obviously a gut wrenching and difficult ceremony to attend.

Afterwards, we watched different Holocaust programming on TV including the National  Remembrance Ceremony from Jerusalem and some other programs featuring the testimony of survivors along with interviews with their children and grandchildren.

One of the most  moving pieces that I watched was an interview with former Israeli Chief Justice Aharon Barak.  Barak is now 87. When he was 5 years old, he miraculously escaped the Ghetto by being hidden in a basket of soldiers' uniforms, along with his mother.  He was hidden by a nearby Lithuanian farmer and his family for a short period of time - and then had to leave.  Another farmer family, Jonas Mozuraitis and his wife Ona, took him and his mother (as well as a few others) and kept them all hidden for almost three years.  The farmer built a double wall with a four foot space in between.  Barak, his mother and the others, were hidden between the walls for entire days and allowed to come out only at night - where they would then spend time with the farmer's family including his children.  Barak eventually came to Israel, studied law, became the Dean at the Hebrew University Law School and eventually the Chief Justice of the Israeli Supreme Court.  The story is nothing short of incredible.

Years later, Barak was asked to meet with Lithuanian officials to provide advice on putting together a constitution - he accepted the invitation on condition that he could meet with the family that had hid him.  Only the farmer's children were still alive.  Barak had a question for them.  "Why did you save us and risk your  lives? he asked.  "If the Nazis had discovered us they would have killed you."  One of the children responded to Barak.  "I don't understand your question.  For us it wasn't a question.  We were religious Catholics.  We believe in our obligation to our fellow human beings, especially those in need.  We saw people who needed help and we knew we had to help  We believe you would do the same."  Barak said the answer has kept him awake every night.  "Would I have the courage and the moral clarity to do the same thing?" He has asked himself repeatedly.  One of  Barak's family members said - the answer is "absolutely."  But Barak was crying while giving this explanation.

Barak, as you might recall, is the Israeli representative on the International Criminal Court which has been hearing the case brought by South Africa alleging that Israel has been carrying out a genocide.  The case is simply outrageous and Barak spoke a bit about it (to the extent that he was able to do so).  Israeli soldiers have been fighting back against  Hamas in a war that Hamas declared on October 7th.  While there have been a large number of civilian Palestinian casualties, the Israeli army has taken extraordinary steps to minimize those casualties.  Israel is fighting an enemy that has set up bases in hospitals, mosques and dense residential areas.  Hamas has transported its fighters in UNRWA vehicles and red cross ambulances.  Sometimes they wear press badges.  Hamas has fired missiles and then hidden underground in tunnels while exposing the civilian population to Israeli responses to the missile fire in those very same areas.

On the other hand, the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas were deliberate attacks involving  massacres of civilians - including torture, burning victims alive, rape and all kinds of other atrocities.  The notion that Israel would be charged with genocide for attacking Hamas in response to these crimes against humanity is ludicrous.

All of this context was explored this year during Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day by a wide range of speakers - who also sounded warning bells about the massive worldwide increase in antisemitisms and anti-Semitic attacks.  A special focus has been on U.S. university campuses and some of the completely unacceptable responses by these universities to the targeting of Jewish students on campuses.  Columbia University has, of course, been singled out as one of the worst offenders though the situation across the U.S. is quite grim, especially as viewed through the eyes of Jewish Israelis.  

Of course Canada is not much better.  The University of Toronto is continuing to allow a pro-Hamas encampment on its property - which is actively trying to prevent Jews from entering the area.  Is this 2024?  

Anti-Jewish attacks, rallies and other public antisemitic acts and comments, can all remind us, anytime, but especially on Holocaust Remembrance Day, how things that start like this can quickly descend into much much worse scenarios.

Lighter Note

On a lighter note (compared to everything that is going on here), I stayed up on Saturday night to watch the Maple Leafs blow yet another 7 game series and bow out of the playoffs in the  first round - even with a team loaded with highly paid superstars.  Once again, a tremendous, yet perhaps predictable  disappointment for a Toronto Maple Leafs hockey fan.  At least I saved some money on playoff tickets - though I was looking forward to being back in Toronto for Round 3 or Round 4 - even at an insane cost of $750 per ticket for my lowly purple seats if the Leafs had made it to the finals.  

Here in Israel, the Yes Cable system was showing Leafs' playoff games on Sports 5+ - channel 59 - at 3 a.m.  But wouldn't you know it - they showed games 1 to 6 but not game 7. So I had to stream the CBC using a VPN.  That wound up working out fine.  Unfortunately, no one wanted to stay up and watch with me - so I had to keep from falling asleep on my own.  With overtime, I think the game ended around 6 a.m. on Sunday morning.

My other light note - is that Israel is getting a few days of  unseasonal rain.  The weather forecaster called it the "return of winter" - even though the temperature has not dipped much below 20C.  Some winter...(says the Canadian...)

I will try to write more in the coming days as we have Yom Hazikaron (Israel Remembrance Day for  Soldiers and Victims of Terror), Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day), the Eurovision Festival, and the pending invasion of Rafiah, Gaza or a possible cease fire deal.  Lots to discuss.

I wish everyone the best of health - and  peace.

 

Iran's Massive Attack on Israel - Where are things headed now?

 

It is Sunday April 14, 2024, the day after the first ever attack launched against Israel by Iran.  From all reports that we have seen so far, the results are somewhat miraculous.  As you probably know, Iran fired more than 300 different items at Israel including ballistic missiles, unmanned drones and less sophisticated rockets.  And as you probably also know, Israel, with the help of the United States and other allies, seems to have shot down more than 99% of these objects.  If any of these missiles had landed, especially the ballistic missiles equipped with massive, dangerous payloads, Israel could have faced enormous casualties, even with so many of its citizens sheltering in mostly bomb-proof safe rooms.

For one thing, this can only be seen as an incredible accomplishment for the Israeli military and its partners.  We can think back to when Ronald Reagan first envisioned a "Star Wars" type of system that would allow the United States to shoot down incoming Soviet ballistic missiles.  These ideas at the time were dismissed as fantastical.  But here we are, after 25 years of development by Israeli technology companies and their partners - watching Israel shoot down more than 100 ballistic missiles, each carrying a massive payload.  We can only shudder to think what would have happened if several of these missiles had landed - and we still cannot discount the possibility that Iran will try again and again - and again.

Iran has been on a publicity offensive arguing that this was a "retaliatory attack" for the death of a number of Iranian generals - who were stationed at the Iranian embassy in Syria.  But retaliatory?  Seriously? As we know, it was Iran that started this war with Israel on October 7th.  Iran trained and armed Hamas, Hezbollah and its other proxies - including the Houthis in Yemen.  The Iranian/Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th was planned for more than 2 years and included visits and exchanges between Iranian military personnel and Hamas fighters.  Moreover, as soon as the attacks began, Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, which is also armed, trained and funded by the Iranians, began attacking Israel's north. And the Houthis, who have no border with Israel and no real conflict with Israel, also began sending rockets from Yemen to Israel - all, apparently orchestrated by Iran.  So the killing of some Iranian military personnel (who were involved in these anti-Israel operations) was a retaliation by Israel against Iran for what its personnel have been up to - not the other way around.

This was not a "retaliation" - it was  part of a years old strategy by the current extremist Iranian leadership to attack and inflict damage on Israel.  They have threatened to "wipe out" the State of Israel many times - over several years.  And Israel has been warning the world about Iran for many years but no one has been willing to do anything about it.  If these ballistic missiles had contained nuclear warheads, there would be radiation all over the Middle East from the fall out.

Israel cannot afford to be hit by this type of missile barrage and it cannot continue to face the risk of this type of attack whenever Iran decides to launch one.  Unfortunately, a massive and powerful response is required by Israel.  Israel will need to find a way to significantly degrade Iran's missile launching capabilities and hopefully destroy, or at least severely set back the Iranian nuclear program.

Israel is facing tremendous world pressure.  The United States has pledged to assist Israel defensively but has apparently indicated that it will not take part in any attacks on Iran.  Israel will need to work very closely with the United States to ensure that the U.S. will support an appropriate Israeli response.  Even though some ministers in the Israeli government would like to launch an immediate and far-reaching attack, it is crucial that Israel obtain at least tacit support from the Biden administration.

Israeli news stations have reported today that the French and British have urged Israel not to respond.  Really?  I would like to know what the French and British would do if this type of attack were launched against France or Britain.  Or the U.S. for that matter.  If it was the U.S., you can be sure that Iran would have been obliterated by now.  

It is a tricky situation.  World support for Israel has plummeted since October 7th as Israel has continued with its operation in Gaza in response to the massacres carried out by Hamas.  The operation is not over.  Israel has not secured the release of the hostages (more than 130 are still being held hostage though we do not know how many are still alive).  For the sake of its long-term security, Israel will need to defeat Hamas - which will include capturing or killing the Hamas leader, Yehia Sinwar - and many of his fellow Hamas leaders.  The only way to do this will be a major operation in Rafiah - to attack and degrade the remaining Hamas military forces.  These are densely packed areas with many civilians - and many tunnels underneath those civilians.  But, it seems to me, that is the only way that the war with Hamas will conclude.

Israel is very concerned about the hostages and trying to figure out how to get them back - either through negotiation or military operations.  As you may have seen, Hamas has pretty much rejected every offer put forward by Israel (or developed by the U.S. and other parties).  There is no indication that Hamas wants this war to end any time soon.  It seems that the only way to end it will be to defeat Hamas militarily.

As you may also know, the U.S. abstained from a UN security council resolution calling for a cease fire.  Countries around the world, including countries like Canada, have called for an immediate unconditional cease fire - which is tantamount to calling for a Hamas victory.  Not surprisingly, some of those same countries are now calling on Israel not to respond to this massive, unprecedented attack by Iran against Israel. 

It is true that there is a precedent for that.  During the first Gulf War in 1991 - Israel did not retaliate against an ongoing barrage of rockets sent by Iraq.  Israel was not even a party to that war.  But the United States pledge, at the time, was, essentially, "we will take care of this."  Israel, at the time, did not want to be reliant on other countries for its defence.  But it nevertheless agreed to stay out of the war to ensure that the U.S.-built international coalition would hold together.

This is a very different story.  It is Israel that has been attacked - both on October 7th and yesterday.  While the U.S. and some other countries have helped Israel to fend off attacks from the Houthis - and helped yesterday to defend Israel against the Iranian attacks - no one has pledged to take care of the Iranian problem.  While one can imagine that Israel might agree not to retaliate if the U.S., France and Britain were all launching attacks to take out the Iranian nuclear program - that does not seem to be the proposal. Instead, the French and British want to avoid escalation but don't seem to want to deal with the problem.

I don't see how Israel has much of a choice.  While it may delay for a period of time - and continue to focus on Hamas and the hostages - at some point - Israel will need to launch a significant strike against Iran - in the interests of Israel's long term security and deterrence.

For now, as you may have seen, flights were cancelled today to and from Israel.  All schools were closed.  Civilians were warned to remain near a bomb shelter.  The army was placed on the highest levels of readiness on five different fronts - the south (the Houthis), the Gaza border, the Lebanese border, the Syrian border and vis a vis missile and other attacks from Iran.  An all out war with Lebanon has become much more likely and the need to deal with the Iranian nuclear program has become crucial and imperative.

This all comes just a week before Pesach as Jews around the world are getting things ready for this week long holiday of eating matzah and avoiding all forms of hametz.  It is also a time when Jews from around the world travel to Israel to celebrate the holiday - and Israelis leave the country to enjoy a 9-day holiday - counting a day before and a day after the holiday for Israelis.

An attack on Iran now will jeopardize the plans of hundreds of thousands of Israelis - and hundreds of thousands of tourists and others coming to Israel.  It will also widen the war.  But considering the attacks that have just been launched by Iran - what else is Israel waiting for in terms of escalation?

Beyond that, we cannot even say for sure that the Iranians will stop at this one day of attacks - even if Israel does not respond.  Even though they have said so publicly - this may have only been some kind of test - or first strike to assess Israel's defence - or a ruse to lull Israel into complacency - or whatever else.  I am not sure how long Israel can wait around to face more attacks without taking action.

I am in Toronto for a few more days and was glued to Israeli tv news last night watching to see what would happen.  I am not sure that my flight will be going ahead this week - or what will happen.  I would like to say that we are all hoping for "de-escalation" but - sorry - that is simply not what is required right now.  Israel (and indeed, the western world), needs to seriously damage the Iranian war-making capabilities or Israel and its allies will face increasingly serious attacks from this crazy Iranian regime.

It may well be that we are in for an extensive period of uncertainty and war - even years, if not months, but the world has been in that situation in any event ever since Russian invaded the Ukraine.  So while we all hope and pray for peace and a better world - unfortunately, we also need to consider the Biblical text of Kohelet - (Ecclesiastes) - there is a "time of war and a time of peace."  When you have been attacked - that is a time of war.  According to Jewish thought, "turning the other cheek" is not a practical prescription in this situation.  It would only invite more attacks.  Israel has now faced two attacks by murderous, extremist regimes - even though both attacks (and all of the attacks by other proxies since October 7th) have all been coordinated by the same place - Iran.  So there is really only one appropriate, necessary and urgent response.

If I don't get the chance to write again later this week - I want to wish everyone a happy, healthy and Kosher Pesach.  We will continue to hope and pray for the release of the hostages, a victorious end to the war with Hamas and Hezbollah - and a successful response to Iran that causes severe setbacks but does not create a dangerous world war.  Perhaps Israel's targeted actions will help bring about regime change in Iran. After all, what would be a better result during the holiday of Pesach - the "Holiday of Freedom" than helping another people in bondage to unshackle themselves and gain their own freedom.