Political Blog: Days Before Israel Closes its Candidate Lists 2026

It is a long weekend in North America - Labour Day Weekend - but not here in Israel. Unfortunately, there are no real long weekends in Israel.  Sunday is generally a regular work day - and Shabbat is a different kind of day - where many things  are closed.  Although many Israelis do not work on Fridays - schools are open in most parts of Israel - and many people do work.  So there is no real equivalent of Sunday - where people can go shopping, go on trips with their family, sign the kids up for sports and other activities - etc.,

As well - there are no real "long weekend" holidays - the equivalent of Victoria Day in Canada or Memorial Day in the US, or Labour Day or the August Long Weekend ("Simcoe Day" in Ontario.  

That's not to say Israel has a shortage of holidays - we have lots.  But most of them are Jewish Holy Days - which for observant people - mean no work, no travelling, no commerce etc.,  So these days are not "free holidays" - the way that people in other countries enjoy days off.  One day that is close is Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day  - where people often get together for barbecues or visits to some of  Israel's national parks.  Another time period is the two periods of Hol-Hamoed - during Sukkot and during  Pesach, when many Israelis have time off.  Parenthetically, many Israelis, especially non-observant Israelis, travel out of the country during those periods of time.  Others travel within Israel, which means the roads and highways are completely jammed.

In a way, none of this affects me directly, since my work is primarily Canada based - so I can be off on Labour Day and Sundays, even though these are regular work days for most other Israelis.  The Jewish Holy Days can be more of a challenge - but that was the case even while I was in Toronto - and for anyone observing these Holy Days outside of Israel. It is certainly easier in years like this when some of the major holy days fall on weekends.

We plan to make the most of the Labour Day holiday tomorrow - and take a drive up north - towards the Golan Heights.  Perhaps a winery or two is in our future, perhaps a bee farm - where we might pick up some honey for the upcoming holidays -and perhaps an olive oil production factory.  Or maybe we will stop at a chocolate producer.  It might be a bit hot for walk in a national park - but there are some really great ones in northern Israel.

Upcoming Elections

We are in overdrive with election news here in Israel.  Even though the election is not scheduled to take place until October 27th, there is a huge date coming up this week on Wednesday - the date by which all parties have to finalize their candidate lists.  Watching the news unfold - feels like watching the quarter-finals or semi-finals of a sports tournament - so many things going on.

There is a fairly short explanation for this.  There are currently 16 parties listed as having a chance to make it into the Knesset. Right now only 12 of these parties are projected to make it, based on current polls.  Parties need 3.25% to get into the Knesset - at which point they start off with 4 seats (in the 120 member Knesset).  If they don't make it - their votes all get wasted and redistributed, proportionately, among those that have made it in.  

This means that the parties that are close to or below the threshold are negotiating furiously to find options that would get them into the Knesset through amalgamation - or  other deals.  Alternatively, if the picture looks really bad - some of these parties will have to decide whether to fold and not run.

I will write more about all of this once everything  has closed and the final slates are in - but here are a view interesting pieces of information and a few comments on each of the main parties running now.

The Likud

The current governing party - the Likud, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is running at between 19 and 22 seats in most polls - other than Channel 14 (A Fox-type pro-Bibi station) which has the Likud at 31. These polls also project Likud being able to secure between 47 and 53 coalition members, which is well short of the 61 needed to form a government.  There is still lots of time - but there is no question that Bibi is starting to panic looking at these numbers.

Last Sunday night - he gave one of his first interviews in a long time - and came with up his latest spin on the horrifying events of October 7, 2026.  Bibi says "I was asleep when the various military personnel met at 3 a.m. that day (3 hours before the attacks started). They were scared to wake me up because they were worried that I would launch massive counterattacks immediately and throw the whole Mideast into turmoil."  He softly denied that he was promoting a conspiracy theory but of course claimed that everyone had failed - the army, the intelligence, the secret services, - everyone except Bibi.

Later in the week, his office released his schedule and it is quite clear that he received full updates at about 625 a.m. when the attacks began.  No one really knows (at this point) what Bibi did between 6:30 and 10 a.m. but he did not speak with the army commander until approximately 10 a.m. Hardly the schedule of someone who would "spring into action" at the first sign of any problems.

Coupled with this, Netanyahu's wife Sara had been on TV for an interview a day earlier - and she basically suggested that Yair Golan, the leader of the Democratic Party (in Israel) (Not affiliated  in any way with the US Democrats) had known about the attacks ahead of time and already had his uniform on and arrived at the massacre site very early in the day to join in the fighting.  In fact she wondered why Golan knew what was going on and was already fighting while her husband was still asleep and wasn't informed. (It is indeed a funny sort of conspiracy allegation to suggest that Golan knew about the pending attack in advance - but would also be one of the first people to go and risk his life to stop it.  Doesn't sound like a great plan to me).

I won't spend too much time on  this - other  than to say that Golan received calls starting at 6:30 a.m. - went and put on a uniform and arranged to get weapons and headed down to the Gaza area as quickly as he could.  The people he went with are credited with saving more than 125 people. He put his life in danger, unquestionably - to go and try to save Israelis and defend the country. The suggestion that he knew about the attacks in advance is simply unhinged and provides much more information about Sara Netanyahu's mental state than  it does about Golan.

Golan promptly issued a libel warning to Sara Netanyahu - with a demand that she issue a full apology within 24 hours. Sara Netanyahu refused and I believe that Golan will now sue her as he has threatened.  He has threatened to sue for one million shequels and donate the proceeds to he victims of the October 7, 2023 attacks. From a legal point of view - it looks like a slam dunk case to me. She has no immunity since she is not a Knesset member, the allegations are clearly malicious and they are false.  Her supporters have claimed that she didn't actually suggest that there was a conspiracy - but I do not think any judges would buy that defence. Of course Sara, a convicted felon (for fraud and other financial improprieties) is no stranger to defending lawsuits.  Aside from her criminal matters, she has had a rash of lawsuits from former employees - mostly alleging torts like intentional infliction of emotional distress, abusive treatment and failure to comply with employment laws.

In any case, this is apparently the Netanyahu game plan for dealing with the events of October 7, 2023 - avoid taking responsibility, suggest a left-wing conspiracy, and launch all kinds of personal attacks on others with a whole range of attack ads aimed at the various opposition members claiming that they are "enemies of the state."

I guess it remains to be seen whether Israelis will buy all of this.  Hopefully not.

Yashar

This is a party led by former IDF General Gadi Eisenkot, which is running on more of a centrist platform (okay - right-centre really).  The party's name means "straight" or "straightforward" and one of the key elements of the platform is an explicit (and sometimes implicit) attack on the corruption of the current coalition.  Eisenkot's party is polling at between 21 and 25 seats. In most polls, it is ahead of the Likud, which would give it the first opportunity to build a government coalition.  Currently, even with all of its potential coalition allies, it is only polling at  between 55 and 58 seats.  That would put them at 3 to 6 seats short of being able to form a government.  One option would be to cut a deal with one or more of the three ultra-nationalist parties.  This is possible but unlikely since there would be such a wide diversity of views on so many issues.  Another possibility is that they could form a government with one of the ultra-religious parties. Again this seems unlikely since neither Eisenkot nor his other coalition members seem ready or willing to give the ultra-religious what they are seeking. A third possibility is another government with Monsour Abbas and his Ra'am party (like the government that Bennett formed when he was Prime Minister).  Although the various coalition members are claiming that they will not do this - I think that this option is something that is quite possible - if Yashar gets 57-60 other coalition seats.

B'yachad

B'yachad ("together") is a coalition made up of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former short serving Prime Minister Yair Lapid.  Although Bennett himself describes himself as a religious right wing observant Jew, he states that the most important thing is forming a proper government - even  if that means compromising with others.  There was talk that the party might join up with Yashar - and create one big party.  They still have until Wednesday to do that, but it is looking unlikely.  Apparently, they commissioned some huge polls and found that by combining, they might even lose  votes compared to their current numbers. The party released its election list today - and it is comprised of almost 50% women (perhaps the highest percentage of women candidates of any party) with a range of accomplished, highly qualified candidates.  Bennett has been travelling around the country meeting voters and discussing with them his party, its policy and positions.

Many voters he meets with are very upset with Bennett.  In the last round of elections, he promised in writing not to form a government with the Arab party Ra'am.  After the elections, he changed his position - at least in part because he saw that there was no other viable option to form a government and without a deal - there would be another election.

Over the past few weeks - the B'yachad numbers seem to be going up and are currently at 11 to 15.

The Far Right

Israel now has three ultra-right wing parties running.  These are religious Zionist parties - that seem to share the view that the only way to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is to annex all of the territory, expel all of the Palestinians (with payments or forcibly) and, eventually, rebuild the third Temple in Jerusalem (after destroying the Mosque of course..).

Otzma Yehudit

One party, Otzma Yehudit - Jewish power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at between 6 and 9 seats. Ben Gvir is an extreme populist - who has been serving as the Minister of National Security in the current Likud led government.  Ben-Gvir is a gentleman with a prison record for incitement, a history of being a disciple of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane and someone who the army would not take because he was too extreme.  Needless to say, he is responsible for allowing, explicitly or implicitly, the various attacks on Palestinian Arabs that have been taking place in Yehuda and Shomron.  

As you might have heard, U.S. Ambassador Huckabee, the most pro-Israel ambassador ever, recently describe these attacks as terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators to be arrested.  I doubt Ben Gvir was listening even though he is the head of national security.

Ben-Gvir recently added Tali Gottlieb to his party, who crossed over from the Likud party after failing to secure a high enough spot for herself in the recent Likud primaries. I could write a whole column about Gottlieb but let's just say she might even be more of an extremist than Ben Gvir.

Some commentators have indicate that Ben-Gvir and his party could get as many as 12-15 seats.  This would be quite frightening in my view.

Religious Zionist Party

This party is led by Bezalel Smotrich - who previously ran with Ben-Gvir.  He has been serving as Israel's Finance Minister - and has made all  kind of notorious statements and claims over the course of his term.  

Up until last week, he was polling at less than 3% and facing political wilderness.  He joined up with the Zehut (Identity) party led by Moshe Faglin and they are now polling at 5 to 6 seats.  It is still possible that this party will fail to make it over the finish line but that remains to be seen.

Your Nation Israel

The newest entry to the Israeli political circus is a new party called "Your Nation Israel" led by Ofer Vinter, a former Israeli General, without an extensive political background - but with extensive military experience.  One of the fascinating things is that Vinter signed up Arab Israeli Joseph Haddad as his number two candidate.  Haddad is an Arab Israeli who has served in the Israeli army and is well known for his active "hasbara" efforts on behalf of Israel.  Some Rabbis have complained publicly about Vinter having an Arab Israeli in such a high position in his party.  Others have flooded him with support.  This alone differentiates him from the other two ultra-right wing parties - though I note, for what it is worth, that Haddad is a Christian Arab and not a Muslim Arab. 

Netanyahu is pleading and begging with Vinter to join up with Smotrich's party or with Ben-Gvir to ensure that the votes are not wasted.  Vinter's party is currently polling at 5 to 6 seats but Netanyahu believes that either Vinter's party or Smotrich's party will fail to pass the threshold which would harm the Netanyahu bloc's chances.

In my view, it is within the realm of possibility that Vinter could actually join Eisenkot - if there were no other options. Vinter has denied that this could happen  - but we are talking about Israeli politics of course - everything is possible.

Overall, these three ultra-nationalist parties are polling at 15-20 seats combined - which is a huge number.  A government that might be made up of Likud plus these folks plus the ultra-religious parties - would create an enormous danger for the continued existence of Israel as a liberal democracy and could move the country even further along the path towards a religious state - like Türkiye or even worse.

The Democrats

This is the party led by Yair Golan that was formerly made up of the left-wing worker oriented Labour party (the party of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) and the far left party Meretz - which focused on equality, secularism and a political compromise with the Palestinians.  The Meretz party was devasted in the last elections with Meretz failing to make it past the threshold and the Labour party emerging as a shadow of its former self.  Led by Golan, the Democrats rebranded themselves, merged the two parties and are now polling at 8 to 11 seats.  

Golan was a senior military figure and he is tough as nails.  He is a reserve Major General.  When he first heard of the outbreak of the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023, he sprang into action  - even though he was a retired officer - and headed down to the Gaza area to join the fighting and try to save lives.

Golan is viewed by some on the right as fairly extreme. He is a supporter of full Arab participation in Israeli governments, a two-state solution and full equality for all people in the State of Israel.  He has been known to make some statements at times that have been viewed as extreme by many on the political right.

However, ultimately, he has impeccable  military credentials and is in favour of a strong, democratic, Jewish state, with equal rights for all citizens. He is the most likely of all the candidates to stick to his principles and refuse to make a deal with Netanyahu.  There is a also a good chance that he will achieve a higher number of seats than currently projected.

Yisrael Beitenu

The Yisrael Beitenu Party (Israel, Our Home), led by Avigdor Liberman is polling at between 7 and 10 seats.  This is also a fairly right wing party, heavily supported by Israeli Russian expatriates, but one that is dedicated to separating the state from much of the religious legal framework that now envelopes the State.  Liberman and his party favour full conscription for all military aged Israelis (including Arab citizens and the ultra-religious), full access to civil marriage for everyone (including the LGBT community) and a weakening of many different religious laws generally - including those that apply to Kashrut and Shabbat across the country. More than anything else, Liberman would like to see an Israeli government that does not include the large ultra-orthodox parties.  Liberman himself has extensive political experience and views himself as a possible Prime Minister as part of a coalition deal. He will almost certainly agree to form a government with Eisenkot and Bennett and is very unlikely to join a government led by Netanyahu. He will try to get the Prime Minister's role - even on a rotational basis.

The Ultra-Religious

There are two major ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).  I am not going to discuss them at length but I do have a few comments.

Shas

Shas is made up of primarily Sephardi ultra-orthodox supporters - and is led by convicted felon and fraudster Aryeh De'eri - who has been serving as a Minister in Netanyahu's current government. They are polling at 7 to 10 seats and are likely to be in the government only if Netanyahu can win again. Then again, if they are facing the political wilderness, they might make a deal with other parties for the right amount of money.  They would rather secure funding for their Yeshivas and other institutions than face four years of greatly reduced funding.  De'eri does know how to make all sorts of deals - which also include terms that are to his own personal benefit. For now, they are one of the parties that Netanyahu can really count on - if he has any chance to form a government.

UTJ

This is the ultra-orthodox, anti-Zionist, anti army party - supported by those who live in ultra-religious strongholds in Jerusalem, B'nei Brak and parts of Beit Shemesh.  They are also polling at 7 or 8 consistently (since their supporters vote for whomever their rabbis tell them to vote for).

They are strongly in the Netanyahu camp and very unlikely to support any other leader or party. Then again, for the right amount of money....

But don't worry, no other parties are about to offer them the money and deal it would take to leave Netanyahu.

RA'AM

One of the most interesting parties - this is an Arab Muslim party that was originally fundamentalist in outlook.  The Ra'am party leader Monsour Abbas decided that he would like his party to become involved in Israeli politics in a direct way.  This culminated in him joining the Bennett government - and Abbas becoming a Minister in that government.  

Many on Israel's right - oppose Abbas and  his party and claim that he has not been clear enough in denouncing Hamas.  They argue that the inclusion of Abbas in an Israeli government endangers Israel.

There is no suggestion that Abbas did anything, while serving  in the Bennett government, that warrants this criticism.

Most recently, Abbas announced that he  had come to agreement with a Jewish Zionist politician, former head of the Police services in Israel, Yoav Segalovitz, to join his party and run as number 2 on his list.  This is fascinating.  Perhaps the first time in Israel's history that a Jewish Zionist has joined an Arab Muslim led party - with a view to changing the country.

Some Arab Israelis oppose the inclusion of Segalovitz in the party - but they are being assured by Abbas that this is an appropriate move.  Some Jewish Israelis oppose the move by Segalovitz and question his loyalty.  Still others wonder if this is some sort of trick by Abbas to make his party more palatable as a coalition partner.  

I have heard Abbas many times on TV (he speaks fluent Hebrew of course and English) and, in my view, he seems like quite a decent guy - sincere, and committed to some kind of long-term solution for Muslims and Jews in Israel. Abbas is a trained Dentist with a degree from Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has also completed some of the work towards his Masters Degree in political science from the University of Haifa. He is a proud bearer of multiple identies. Arab. Palestinian. Muslim. Israeli. And he argues that these can all go together. 

Ra'am is running at 4 to 6 seats currently and would like to join the next government.  A Bibi-led coalition is unlikely to make a deal with Ra'am. Some of the opposition parties have said that they will not make an agreement with Ra'am either, but I think that we cannot rule out this possibility.

Other Arab Parties

There are three other Arab parties that run together as the combined "Joint List." Generally, these are anti-Zionist, communist, Muslim parties that are not interested or willing to join  a Zionist-led government - unlike the Ra'am party, which publicly accepts that Israel is a Jewish State. The Joint list is currently polling at 7 to 9 seats.  Party members can and will certainly vote on different bills - which could include bills to dissolve the Knesset.  But unless there is a tremendous sea change - including a change in some of their views - they are unlikely to play a role in any near term Israeli governing coalition.

There you have it - that is my wrap up of the current state of political affairs - as of three days before the lists close.  I will try to write again on Wednesday night or Thursday -once the list deadline passes but before Rosh Hashanah but that might be difficult given the timing.

Final Word on Israeli Politics

There is lots of time between now and October 27th, 2026. I think there are still three strong possibilities and we cannot rule any of them  out.  One  possibility is, essentially, a stalemate.  If no coalition can form a government of 61  - we may face additional rounds of election or we might see some sort of surprise compromise - with either some ultra-religious, some ultra-nationalist (Vinter?) or the Ra'am party helping to form a government.  The anti-Netanyahu coalition may wind up being the winners of a stalemate.

If Netanyahu and his current coalition members can get past 61 -  we can expect more of the same - and perhaps even harder right policies.  The various coalition members, who are all to the right of  Netanyahu or seem to be, are committed to attacking the current judicial system, enhancing executive power, continuing to move Israel towards a path towards annexation of Judea and Samaria, exempting the ultra-religious from the army and attacking equality in various ways and forms, procedurally and substantively, across the country. 

If the anti-Likud coalition can get past 61 seats and form a government, Israel could see quite a huge number of changes, especially on a wide range of domestic policy issues - and possibly in its approach to foreign policy issues as well.  I believe it would be a far less corrupt government - with policies that would ultimately be more representative of the country as a whole.

Other Notes

Israeli TV has spent a fair bit of time over the past few days speaking about the US-Canada trade dispute.

The tone from the Israeli press - I think - is trepidation.   Israeli reporters are wondering what it is that has made Trump so intent on attacking Canada - one of the U.S.'s closest long standing allies, with the largest shared border in the world.  If this is how Trump treats his "friends" - what is going to happen to us?

If Trump would rather spend his time getting the US to cosy up to Türkiye, Qatar, Russia and other very questionable regimes - while attacking and alienating long term allies of the US in Europe, Canada and  other places around the world - what does that mean for the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship? Especially since Bibi banked  completely on Trump and the Republicans and turned the U.S.-Israel relationship into a partisan issue in the US.

Of course, it is not that Israelis are feeling warm and fuzzy about Canada's current government.  The current Liberal government led by Prime Minister  Carney is probably the most anti-Israeli government in Canada's history. These policies have almost certainly played a role in the outbreak of anti-Semitic attacks across the country including attacks on synagogues, Jewish schools, Jewish owned stores and restaurants and, of course, universities, across Canada.

Toronto looks like it is on a path to re-electing an extremely anti-Israel, and probably anti-Semitic mayor, which is really frightening for a city with such a large Jewish population that used to feel safe in the City. 

But despite the situation in Canada, I think Israelis are really starting to wonder whether such a close relationship with Trump will wind up benefiting the country in the long run. Maybe they are even starting to wonder about the medium term.

Sports

Interestingly, Israeli TV networks do tend to show lots of NFL games, regular season and playoffs and lots of NHL playoff games.  But almost no baseball.  I think the average Israeli figures it is simply too boring - especially without having grown up with the sport.

I am admittedly somewhat of a bandwagon jumper myself, but I have been on the bandwagon for a while now - since the Blue Jays started to play reasonably well early last year.  It was a devastating game 7 World Series loss - and this season has not lived up to expectations.

But despite all of that, the Blue Jays have fought themselves back to 0.500 baseball and a tie for the last wild card spot.  So the remaining 19 games will be super  meaningful - and I will have to watch them by streaming them with a VPN - at some very inconvenient times.  

Today's Labour Day game is at a reasonably convenient time - so that helps.

Conclusion

We are gearing up for Rosh Hashanah, which, as you may know, starts on Friday night the 11th.

One of those years in which you will have to go to Shul on the second day if you want to hear the Shofar -  since the first day is Shabbat.

One of our family members will be in Toronto running  an auxiliary service.  Another will be in the U.S.  So it will be fairly quiet here for us for Rosh Hashanah.  For  Yom Kippur we will be leading tefillot here in Ra'anana - our kehillah seems to be in the range of 30  to 50 people - with a community break-fast at the end of the fast (after I blow the Shofar...). 

Wishing  everyone a meaningful, happy, healthy and successful New Year and hoping that I have time to update at least some of this political news later this week.  If you are not too interested in all of this domestic Israeli politics - sorry about that - but my blogs between now and late November (it may take 30 days for anyone to form a government in Israel after the elections) are likely to include lots of political news.

Is Renewed Fighting Between Iran and Israel Likely? And Some Israeli Election News

Is Renewed Fighting Between Iran and Israel Likely?

This will probably be my last blog for the summer but I expect that I will have a thing or two to write in September and October as we near Israel's election on October 27, 2026.

These days, we have been on eggshells - or shpilkes if you prefer, waiting to see what will develop in the current war.  As you might know, President Trump has been threatening to launch massive attacks against Iran to try and pressure Iran into making significant concessions (or perhaps, more correctly, any concessions) towards some kind of cease fire deal.  According to various Israeli reports, a major attack was planned for Friday night (July 24, 2026). At the last minute, apparently under pressure from Vice President Vance and others, including military commanders and advisors, Trump cancelled the attacks.

I would say that the mood in Israel seems very mixed.  On the one hand, there is a feeling in Israel that the first round of fighting with Iran (or perhaps, more accurately, the second or third rounds) ended prematurely with what was more or less a U.S. surrender.  None of the U.S.' war objectives were achieved - and the same can be said for Israel.  The Iranians do not appear to have made many, if any, concessions.  In fact, Iran has emerged from the war with  some level of control over the Hormuz Strait, something it did have going into the  war.  Iran still has its nuclear program intact, still has its network of proxies in place including the Houthies in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other allies in Iraq, Gaza and other places.  And Iran is continuing to rebuild its missile program and  capabilities.  The same leadership is running the country even if it is now either Khomenai's son Mojtaba, or some unnamed IRGC leaders.  Overall, by any objective measure, this war can only be characterized as a massive defeat for the U.S. and Israel, even though both countries claim to have caused significant damage to Iranian infrastructure and military capabilities.  By any measure, a war that ends with a country in a better geopolitical position than it was before the war started can only be defined as a victory for that country.  Iran's control of the Hormuz straits and the list of terms that are being negotiated with the U.S. bears no resemblance whatsoever to a U.S. victory.

As a result, many Israelis are certainly of the view that only a series of massive U.S.  attacks might move the Iranian regime to make more concessions and give the U.S. (and Israel) some type of victory or at least some demonstrable gain from the war. Of course, that could backfire - and Iran could continue resisting - and perhaps emerge with even further gains.  From the Israeli point of view, the risk is worth taking - and certainly Prime Minister Netanyahu is anxiously waiting, if not begging Trump, for the attacks to resume.

On the other hand, any major renewed attacks on Iran will almost certainly bring an array of missile attacks to Israel, which will affect Israel's economy, cause the loss of life, shut down the airports and put Israelis in and out of shelters for several days if not weeks.  From various reports that I heard and the "mood on the street," my view is that a majority of Israelis are willing to risk all of that.  They seem to feel that there is a unique opportunity now to do something about the current Iranian regime - and that the combination of having Trump in the White House, having a weakened Iranian leadership and a weakened network of proxies, all  makes this an ideal time to try and "finish the  job" (whatever that might mean).

That being said, I think Israelis underestimate the domestic and  international pressure that Trump is facing - as well as the limitations on his freedom of  action due to deals or understandings with a variety of countries including Qatar, Russia and others.  On Friday, it certainly seemed that this war was going to ramp up at any time in a big way.  Late Friday, Trump announced that the U.S. would not be proceeding with further attacks - and even ceased the types of attacks that the U.S. had been carrying out for the preceding 11 days. Now, I am starting to become less convinced (even though Trump might be bluffing with his announcement that he will not be attacking). 

The manner in which the previous round of fighting ended is indicative that Trump's "bark is worse than his bite" and the Iranians probably have a very good understanding of that now.  If things end the way they are now, the end result from the U.S. - Iranian conflict will have been a weakened perception of the U.S. Military, a stronger and more confident Iran, a weakening of the U.S. -Israel relationship and, most likely, a renewed determination by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.  

All of this is disastrous for Prime Minister Netanyahu  who was hoping that he would have some kind of victory to flout from this war. Unfortunately for him, at this point, there is no good news to report, even though he will attempt to spin the war in various directions to support his bid for another re-election.  Netanyahu would, of course, happily pay the price that Israelis would bear of renewed fighting with Iran, in a bid to bolster his election chances - and with the hope that the U.S. and Israel would be  able to realize some gains from renewed hostilities.  The worst case outcome for Netanyahu would be several Iranian missiles hitting Israel and another "truce" that leaves things in more or less the same state that they are in currently.  Netanyahu's calculation would be that all of this would leave him in a position that is no worse than where he is currently (politically) - so, effectively, "why not?"

Trump's calculation is quite a bit different, especially with upcoming U.S. midterms.  Although Trump is happy to claim victory at every opportunity, he and his advisors are probably quite cognizant that being embroiled in a protracted war with Iran - without the prospect of realizing significant military and political gains from that war - could well be disastrous for the Republicans at the polling booths in November, especially if the price of gasoline continues to rise.

Several International airlines announced that they were cancelling flights to Israel over the weekend - so I don't think we are out of the woods yet in terms of a possible renewal of fighting.  And of course Trump is very unpredictable.  But overall, there seems to be an emerging likelihood that  another major U.S. or U.S./Israeli attack on Iran is not in the cards.  I guess we will have to wait and see.  

On a very  personal note, it is looking more likely that upcoming flights this week will proceed as scheduled and that any decision to renew fighting may be postponed by several days if not weeks.

Preliminary Election News

The "Democrats" (the Israeli version) - which is an amalgamation of the old Labour Party (a party with a traditionally socialist worker bent) and the old Meretz  party (a far left party with a libertarian bent - at least on state vs religion issues) held its "primaries" and assembled a list of candidates based on the voting results of more than 100,000 Israelis.  The slate includes religious and secular candidates, Arab Israeli candidates and many  familiar faces.  The "Democrats" are currently the only Jewish majority party in Israel that  does not describe itself as being "right wing" or "centre-right."  They are currently  polling at an estimate of between 9 and 11 seats - and could play a big role in any future government if it is government that not led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The other party that has traditionally held wide-ranging primaries has been the Likud party - which usually winds up with hundreds of thousands of Israelis voting to set the "list" in place - with numbers ranging from 1 to 50 or so for possible positions that Likud party members could be in after voting results.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been particularly worried this year about these primaries, fearing the possibility that some dissenting voices would wind up in high ranked positions and make life difficult for him.  

So he floated various ideas to address this situation.  First he asked the Likud party (which has a governing body) to cancel the primaries due to "unique circumstances" and allow a panel (that he would hand pick of course) to simply select the full slate of candidates.  After this was rejected, he asked for the right to nominate 20 "hand-picked" candidates that would be strategically placed in the top 40.  Then he went down to asking for 15.  This back and forth continued until he came to a deal with the Likud party that he could nominate 8 candidates, placed in designated positions in the top 30.  However, the Party also agreed that if "security considerations" warrant, Netanyahu could cancel the primaries and use a committee to pick all of the candidates.

Internally, Likud party members challenged this agreement and went to the Likud Court - an internal decision making tribunal - which ruled that the primaries could not cancelled.  The court held that even if there was a serious security situation, there were alternatives including electronic voting etc.,  Overall, this was a significant and embarrassing defeat for Netanyahu, within his own party.  He cannot blame the "deep state," the "leftist Israeli Supreme Court" or some of the other non-Likud candidates.  

The result is that Netanyahu may wind up with a a range of candidates who are prepared to challenge his leadership and/or his decisions - even if they do not do so in a public way initially.   The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026 and that should be fascinating.  

Polling results are released almost daily in Israel.  Looking at a range of polls, it seems to be a close race between the Yashar Party (led by Gadi  Eisenkot) and  Likud led by Netanyahu for the highest number of votes with both parties in the range of 20 to 25  predicted seats.  

For  building a coalition the predications are currently that the opposition could get between 57 and 62 seats and Netanyahu's government could get between 48 and 55.  Parties seeking to form a government need  to be able to present a coalition agreement with 61 seats.  So unless there is a shift, we could be facing some type of stalemate.  (We have been there before).  That being said, there is lots of time between now and election day and things could change drastically.

Other Comments

I have no sports news to report - since the only thing going on that interests me currently is baseball and the Toronto Blue Jays are having a terrible season. (Sorry if I offended anyone who is glued to the TV watching some other sports). NFL and NHL will be starting soon and in December 2026, there will be a draw for 2028 Euros - and hopefully Israel will have a chance of making it.

This is probably all for the best as we can all get outside and enjoy the summer weather, as long as it is not 40c plus.

I updated my index for this blog (Index is hyperlinked).  Over the years, I have now written about 350 blog articles.  You can use the index to go back and read all of the articles that you missed....

As usual, you can feel free to send this to anyone who you think might be interested - and they can email me at rananareveller@gmail.com if they would like to be added to the list.  Or you can email me and just say "remove" if you want to be removed from the current list.

You can also feel free to write back with your comments, preferably constructive, though I am happy to engage with a wide variety of viewpoints. 

Enjoy the summer weather. Hope to see many of you soon!

Pesach Update #2 - 2026

We were into our final preparations for our Passover Seder on Wednesday night.  The gefilte fish had been made, the Charoset was ready to go, the horseradish was hand grated, the chicken soup and matzah balls were hot and the roast beef with garlic confit (Kosher for Passover, kitnyot-free of course)(courtesy of our in-house chef) was out of the oven.  There were other dishes as well - these are just a few of the highlights.  As we were getting ready to leave around 4:30 p.m., we faced an onslaught of five warnings and sirens in a row - as a result of simultaneous missile launches from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. We headed for our saferoom and waited it out.

We started wondering if we were going to be able to make it to Kiryat Eqron for our family dinner or if the Iranians and their "Axis of Resistance/ Axis of Evil" allies - would be firing missiles all night long.  We packed some blankets with us in case we were going to need to stop the car on the way and find a safe spot near the side of the road.

We of course received phone calls and messages from friends and family members wondering if we should stay home and just have the Seder at our place.  But by 5 p.m. or so, everything had stopped and we decided to take our chances.  So off we went (crazy? perhaps. But that's  life in Israel).  We made it to Kiryat Eqron (about a 40 minute drive) uneventfully.  We started our Seder at about 7:40 p.m. and finished about 12:30 a.m. and had no sirens or warnings throughout the whole Seder.  

As you might know, there is only one Seder in Israel - and we were able to enjoy it thoroughly with some really nice wine, telling the story of the Exodus from Egypt as set out in the Haggadah, singing lots of songs, enjoying lots of food and most importantly spending the evening with our extended family - with the chance to pass on and teach our children these lessons and traditions. 

Once we had cleaned up, packed up all the food and finished whatever else needed to be done, we wound up with our first and only siren of the night at about 2 a.m.  Fortunately nothing landed anywhere near us.  We also had one bright and early at 7 a.m. (which is really bright and early after a Pesach seder - especially if you have fulfilled your obligation to drink four whole cups of wine....).

The rest of our Chag day was relatively quiet.  In the afternoon - we decided to go back to Eqron for a family barbecue.  I won't get into all of the details here - but barbecues on Chag days are common in observant Mizrahi communities in Israel. They take a more lenient approach to the idea of getting a charcoal fire going - as long as it was started from another existing flame.  

Again, we were able to get through all of the preparations, have all the food made, eat most of it and even get to our hot beverages - until we wound up with three missile alerts in a row.  So we joined some of the neighbourhood folks in the community bomb shelter and waited for about 20 minutes until the missile barrage was over.  One person was "lightly injured" in the nearby town of Mazkeret Batya (about 2 km away from Eqron) from pieces of shrapnel.  We went back to the house to finish our coffee and tea and it began to rain.  Much more welcome than missiles but still rain tends to send an outside party indoors.

It felt like a Chag day today - Friday - a holy day - since so many people in Israel are doing a "bridge" and turning the holiday into part of a three-day weekend.  Good Friday is not observed  here as a national holiday - only by the Christian communities living in Israel - so mostly, it was a regular Friday - but I think most people were still home lazing around after enjoying the first evening and full day of Pesach.

What's Next in the War?

I understand that President Trump gave a speech on Wednesday night at about 9 p.m. - after the Seders in Israel but in the middle of the Seders in North America. On the one hand, he pledged to finish the war within 2-3 weeks - or at least take the American forces out of the area in that timeframe.  On the other hand, he threatened to bomb Iran "back into the stone ages where they belong..." as he put it.  

Now I'm not sure that this kind of threat will engender the Iranians to rise up and form a U.S. friendly government - not really the kind of language that suggests that we are waiting to work with the Iranian people to build a better future.

In any event, it is hard to conclude that the U.S. has achieved any of its stated objectives at this point in the war.  The Iranian regime is still in place (perhaps even stronger, despite the loss of many key personnel).  The Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, as far as we know.  Apparently, the Iranians still have their enriched  uranium.  The Iranian missile supply has certainly been degraded but not eliminated.  And the regional proxies of Iran have not been eviscerated - though Hezbollah has certainly taken some  heavy blows.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime has strengthened its control over the Hormuz Strait, increased and improved its ties with China, Russia and apparently North Korea, and has so far refused to agree to anything close to U.S. terms.

If things do not change dramatically by April 6th at 8 p.m., President Trump has threatened a series of massive attacks, designed to secure some of the stated U.S. objectives.  Or he could announce another extension.  When I first heard of the 10 day "extension" that he gave the Iranians. my thought was that this was a pretext to concluding the operation - and claiming that a deal had been reached with the Iranians.

At this point, it does not appear that the Iranians have any demonstrable interest in negotiating a deal with the U.S. that would be acceptable to both sides.  As a result, I am leaning to the view that we will see some type of major attacks on Monday April 6th - if not before.  It may be an operation to secure the Straits of Hormuz.  Or it might be an operation to try and seize the enriched uranium that is in some underground Iranian storage facilities. Or perhaps the U.S. might try to seize Karg Island and its oil transportation and storage facilities.  I guess we will have to see.  It seems unlikely that the Iranians will capitulate between now and then. While it is still possible that Trump will declare victory and leave - I think a ramped-up attack is looking much more likely now.

Other Israel News

The Israeli Knesset, before its Pesach break, passed a budget for the year that is intended to enable the government to function until and beyond the elections (end of October 2026). The big news here was that the governing coalition passed  a budget even without passing the the "Draft Evasion Law" that had been promised to the Charedim (the ultra-religious Jews).  How did Netanyahu get around this?  He basically threw more money at the Charedim.  The government added in a few proposed "amendments" to the budget bill.

Normally such amendments only come from the opposition and are routinely voted down.  The opposition votes in favour, the government votes against and all such amendments are defeated.  Here there were more than 100 such amendments.

The governing coalition dropped a few amendments into the list  - including a proposed amendment called an "Education Amendment" - which gave hundreds of millions of shekels to the Charedim.  The opposition dropped the ball and believed that this was one of the amendments they had proposed as a form of filibuster.  As a result - they voted for the amendment - granting the Charedim hundreds of millions of shekels in exchange for supporting this year's budget.

Later the Knesset also passed a  death penalty bill - though the bill only includes the death penalty for Arab perpetrators of terrorism against Israeli targets.  Irrespective of one's view about capital punishment in general, this is a terrible bill - since it does not contain one equal universal standard for defining crimes that would warrant capital punishment.

Sadly, there have been acts of terror committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (called the "West Bank" by some) against Palestinian Arabs.  In my view, perpetrators of these acts should be arrested, prosecuted and subject to the full weight of the law.  Unfortunately, there have not been a sufficient number of arrests and the IDF has had to divert some of its resources to preventing these attacks.  Coupled with this one-sided capital punishment bill, this does not make for a great picture. We have enough problems to deal with - facing a world full of anti-Israel voices, even when we are morally correct.  We hardly need to fan these flames by enacting lopsided pieces of legislation or by failing to protect Palestinian Arabs  in areas that are under our control.

Passover Holiday Trips

Israelis usually love to travel during Passover - since some people have as much as two to three weeks of holidays.  Options are very limited now.  People can go down to Eilat - but the prices there are crazy.  One radio show was reviewing various costs - three day packages for 4 people - ranging from 16,000 shekels to 25,000 shekels.  Sure these packages might include food.  But that is still about $5,500 USD to $8,200 USD for a three day vacation in a moderate level hotel.  In normal times - people can fly to Rome/Athens/ other European destinations for a few hundred dollars per person - and would be nowhere near these costs.

Other people are travelling into the Sinai desert to enjoy the sun and beaches in Egypt.  Might not be the safest plan around for a variety of reasons - but it is generally "missile-free."  

Still others are taking flights from Aqaba or Taba airport - or even Sharm-El -Sheq airport, which is a few hours away from the Egyptian-Israeli border at Taba.  

I would say that overall, many Israelis have expressed the feeling that they feel "trapped" in Israel to some extent.  The airport is running very few flights, with low numbers of passengers per flight.  That being said, there are various flights available to Israel - on El Al  and other airlines.  To twist the famous lines from the Eagles' sign - "you can check in any time you like but you can never leave.... " We also have the "dark desert highways" -  and the "warm smell of colitas..." and with all of these missile warnings - lots  of "shimmering lights."  

It looks like we are staying put for now - and it seems to me that is likely to be the case for most Israelis for a number of weeks, if not longer.

Sports Comments

Since I am on a Hotel California lyrical binge (definitely one of my all time favourite songs), might as well reference another well  known line - "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969...".  In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it has been since 1967 - the year the Leafs last won the cup.  And here we are 57 years later and the Leafs were officially eliminated from contention yesterday.  I hope I will have the zechut to see a Leaf Stanley Cup in my lifetime but I am not optimistic these days.  

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens have won  10 Stanley Cups since 1967, with the last win being in 1993 (a most auspicious year for our family).   As someone born in Montreal, I have and ample supply of Habs' fandom in my blood.  I am always cheering for whichever Canadian teams are in the NHL playoffs. For the last 10 years that has included the Leafs - even though they haven't really gotten anywhere.  This year, the Canadiens are super-hot approaching the end of the season.  They will join the Edmonton Oilers as the only two Canadian terms that are in for sure - with chances still for Ottawa and Winnipeg to squeak in.  So I am hoping for a dark horse Montreal victory - but I would also be happy to see the Edmonton Oilers win the cup.  Either way, I'll definitely have less hockey to watch this year than some other years - with the Leafs not even making the playoffs. The NHL playoffs start this year on Saturday  April 18, 2026.  For those watching  from Israel, this means about 2 a.m. on Sunday April 19th.

The World Cup of Soccer, from June 11, 2026 to July 19, 2026 will attract much more viewership in Israel than the NHL playoffs (by multiples of thousands or tens of thousands) even though Israel is not participating.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to make it in since Israel is forced to compete in the European division instead of playing its neighbours.

One day, hopefully  sooner rather than later, Israel will have to play soccer luminaries like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in order to earn its berth - instead of having to beat countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.  Jordan and Iran are both in this year's tournament.  While Israel might not fare so well against Iran  in a soccer match, I am fairly confident that the Israeli side would be able to beat Jordan quite easily.  

Finally, I have to mention that I am super excited about baseball season and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Normally, I don't pay much attention to baseball until the hockey playoffs have ended. But with the Blue Jays' heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last year, and the various upgrades made by the team in the off-season, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic year for the Jays.  They are only 4-2 so far - but I think this is one of the most exciting baseball teams that Toronto has had in many years.  I am looking forward to getting to some games when I am in Toronto.  Tough to watch from Israel - especially weekday games that are on at 2 a.m. Israel time - but I'm often on Toronto hours anyways.

That's about it for now.  I want to wish everyone a "Mo'adim  L'Simchah" (or Chag Sameach if it is Chag for you - or if it was when I sent this) and a Shabbat Shalom.  I hope everyone enjoys the rest of this Pesach holiday and that there is some good news - "b'sorot tovot" soon.  For friends and readers celebrating Easter - I wish you a meaningful Good Friday and a wonderful Easter weekend.

War With Iran - Latest Blog March 1 2026

What would this blog be without an update article about the latest events in the Middle East?  Well, this is not a news blog - since I do not have the time to write a full-time blog about Israel and Middle East events. That might be a nice alternate way of making a living but for now this is just an unpaid hobby and perhaps a way of keeping in touch with many of my friends, family and others and updating with some of my perspectives from Israel. This is also not a "hasbara" blog, so I try not to fill it with propaganda or made up information (from either side). That does not mean that I do not write from a certain perspective - any writer does - but I am open to discussion of just about any of it usually. I wanted to provide a short update of some of things going on now, some of my thoughts about this situation and perhaps some comments on other related issues.

1. Update

As you probably know, Israel and the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iran early Saturday morning, Feb 28, Israel time (about 8 a.m. local time). The first part of the attack included an attack on the Iranian military and political leadership - who were apparently holding two separate, in-person meetings.  According to Israeli reports, some 40 senior leadership figures were killed in the first minutes of the attack including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomenei,  the Iranian Foreign Minister, the General of the IRGC, and many others.  The targets also included Iranian air defence installations.  Contrary to some fake Iranian reports, neither the Israelis nor the Americans targeted a girls' school - it was apparently hit by an errant Iranian missile.

The Iranians have responded by firing ballistic missiles, conventional rockets and missiles and drones at Israel and at a wide range of surrounding countries including Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Qatar and others. 

At least two ballistic missiles sent from Iran scored direct hits on residential buildings in Israel.  In Beit Shemesh, an Iranian missile hit a residential building and a synagogue - and landed directly in the building's bomb shelter.  At least 9 people were killed and more than 25 were injured.  There were no military targets nearby - this was strictly an attack on a residential building.  In Tel-Aviv, a residential building was also hit - with at least 3 Israelis reportedly killed and more than 20 injured. Many missiles, drones and other rockets have been intercepted by Israel and its allies - including the U.S., Jordan, and others.  But the systems are not foolproof.  If any of these ballistic missiles get through, they can cause enormous damage as they are carrying 400 kg of explosives.

Iran has also hit residential and commercial targets in Dubai, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as well as other places.

Israelis have been in and out of bomb shelters and safe rooms since the war started.  Not all Israelis have access to these facilities - some estimates are that only about 65% to 70% of Israelis have a safe place to go that is reasonably close by.

Meanwhile, the United States has also suffered some casualties to its servicer personnel.  At least 3 navy personnel were killed today by an Iranian missile and dozens more were apparently injured.  Details are still emerging.

I have listened to a wide range of  analysts assessing the likely scope of the current war - though of course things are unpredictable.  The U.S.-Israeli plan initially targeted the Iranian military and  political leadership and the various defence installations including ground to air military targets.  The goal is to establish Air Supremacy.  After that, Israel and the U.S. have the stated goals of targeting missile supplies and capabilities and the IRGC including the units that have been used to suppress Iranian civilian protests.  The other main target is to attack and destroy all of the Iranian nuclear installations.  Some reports have estimated that this plan is designed to take 5 to 7 days - some of predicated as much as a month.

Although the initial attacks appear to have been highly successful from a military standpoint, it is unclear what will come next.  The U.S. and Israel have stated that their goal is regime change - to be carried out by Iranians themselves and they are trying to set the conditions for that to happen.  Is it possible? Likely? I have not idea.  Clearly, if there were to be regime change - and a regime were to emerge that had the support of a large percentage of the Iranian population and was interested in peaceful relations with the U.S. and perhaps Israel, this would be a huge game changer in the Middle East and for the world. 

Here are a few other comments about  this war from some different perspectives.

A. Israel

For Israel, contrary to what various opponents of Israel might try to argue, this is not a whimsical war of aggression by Netanyahu or some unjustified attempt at a form of expansionism.

Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been the leading anti-Israel power in the Middle East.  It has openly called for destruction for Israel - and has dedicated itself to that goal. It has worked at building a nuclear program and openly stated that it intends to use the weapons to destroy Israel.  It has hosted annual Holocaust denial conferences, sponsored terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis around the world and sponsored terrorist groups across the middle east.

More recently, Iran trained Hamas fighters and helped plan the massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 and the incursions by Hamas into Israel.  Iran also activated Hezbollah (also Iranian trained and armed) to attack Israel from Lebanon shortly after October 7th and it armed the Houthis to attack Israel with ballistic missiles from Yemen.  Ultimately, Iran and Israeli engaged in direct fighting  for a period of 12 days in 2025.  Although there was a ceasefire, the Iranians began rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs. Some reports have indicated that they were very close to having an operational nuclear bomb.

For Israel, much of this is therefore existential - or, at least, likely to become existential.  Israel could not afford to wait  until it was attacked by a nuclear Iran and the clock has been ticking.

Although the timing works cynically well for Israel's besieged Prime Minister - especially with elections in Israel due to take place by October, it is more likely that this was a rare opportunity for him to fulfill his decades long goal of dismantling the Iranian threat because he happened to have a willing U.S. Presidential partner.

It is a significant risk for the people of Israel.   There could be a large number of Israeli casualties.  If there is no regime change in Iran, the situation could become even worse. And Israel could find itself even more  isolated on the world stage - with only President Trump in its corner.  On the other hand, if the war is successful and there is regime change in Iran, this could be a major watershed moment for the whole Middle East.

B. The United States

Although from the Israeli perspective, in my view, the war is fully justifiable, it is quite a different story for the United States.

First of all, as a lawyer, I am interested in the legal implications of governance and decision making - in Israel, the United States and Canada.  My understanding of the U.S. Constitution is that the  President must have congressional approval for launching a war.  Even President Bush received a resolution that included "all means necessary" before attacking Iraq.  If an operation is due to a pressing and immediate problem, requiring the U.S. to commit limited troops, that is apparently permissible - and was used initially with the Viet Nam war.  But this is an all out war.  I believe that it requires U.S. Congressional support.

Now that doesn't mean that I think congresspeople and senators would or should vote against it.  They would have to listen to the arguments and decide. But they would need to be part of the decision making.

From the U.S. perspective, there are many questions  to be answered.  What is the mid-range and long-range plan if the U.S. dismantles the Iranian leadership? Who will take over?  Will the U.S. commit troops to maintain order?  Will it just create chaos and then leave (See Afghanistan, Iraq etc.,).  What are the casualty estimates for U.S. service people? These are legitimate questions that need to answered and there are many others.

I also wonder what caused Trump to  believe that this attack was in his interest.  His popularity has been sinking to record lows.  I am not sure that this type of war, even if partially successful, is likely to bolster his support.

Although some might argue that  Prime Minister Netanyahu has Trump under some sort of magic spell and has convinced him that it is in the U.S. interest to execute this war, I do not believe that to be the case.  I do not believe that Bibi has the wherewithal,  monetarily, or otherwise to provide Trump with something sufficient in exchange for support.  And Trump is a very transactional president.

So why would Trump agree?  I think the answer is more likely Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is looking to shore up its position in the Middle East, take a leadership role in the Arab World and destroy its enemies.  Saudi Arabia has a wide range of  assets, tools and promises that it could make or provide to  Trump in exchange for support with this war.

For example, Saudi Arabia may have discussed post war oil arrangements with Trump. post-war weapons and security arrangements, a possible peace deal with Israel - maybe even some kind of support to a nascent Palestinian State.  Saudi Arabia has plenty to trade with Trump - more so  then Israel I would argue.  Earlier today, the Israel Times reported  that MBS of  Saudi Arabia had played a key role in "convincing" Trump to move ahead with this war.  In my view, most of the time Trump is "convinced" to do anything, there is some type of transaction involved.  I would love to know the terms but we may never find out  - or it might take quite a  while.  However, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit greatly from regime change in  Iran and  from an even  closer relationship with the United States. As well - Saudi Arabia's apparently close but hidden relationship with Israel could come out of  the closet.

C. Iran

I am probably not qualified to write about this from an Iranian perspective but I think a few comments are worth making.

On the one  hand, Iran clearly read the tea leaves and saw that a massive attack was coming - given all of the hardware that the U.S.  moved into the region.  While the Americans were making some fairly unrealistic demands of the Iranians, the Iranians seemed to have responded with maximum hubris - and what can only be described as a nonchalant response  to the impending war.  A similar mistake to that made by Saddam Hussein years ago.  I am not sure that the Iranians could have come up with sufficient concessions to stop the war, especially if the US. goal was regime change - but they probably could have made a better effort.

My second comment is that I would question the effectiveness of attacking Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others in the region.  Although the Iranian thinking  on this might be that this well pressure the U.S. into stopping the war, I believe that it will likely have the opposite effect and push those countries to further support a complete dismantling of the Iranian government.

Ultimately, I appreciate that the current Iranian government is in survival mode and is hoping to ride this out in any way it can - and stand up to the U.S. / Israeli efforts to support regime change.  I do not know if that is going to be possible - but attacking civilian targets, bringing in other countries into the fighting and making other non-credible threats to U.S. interests - do not seem to be steps that will assist the Iranians.

D. The Rest of the World

The world has been relatively quiet so far in response  to this war.  Canada's Prime Minister issued a lukewarm statement supporting the U.S.  and also stated that Canada had no part in this and was not going to get involved.  Many  other countries - such as Turkey - have been quieter than one  might have expected. I imagine that this will all change as the war goes on.  But the only country in any position to cause some real problems for the U.S. at this point is probably China.  Hopefully they will not have any interest in becoming involved.

E. Conclusion about the War

There have been demonstrations and counterdemonstrations all  around the world.  Many expatriate Iranians have been demonstrating, often with Israelis in the crowd, in favour of the U.S. -Israeli actions and  hoping for a much  better future for Iran.  Others have demonstrated against the war - including, in many cases, those who were supporting Hamas against Israel. 

According to newest reports, Iran has asked to meet with Trump as soon as possible to discuss the war - and Trump has agreed (while telling them it took them way too long). 

At the same time, there is talk that the civilian anti-government demonstrations within Iran that took place in early January may re-start - this time supported to some degree by U.S. and Israeli actions including the possibility of military assistance.

Israeli news has just reported that Trump has had conversations with MBS of Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister of  Netanyahu and the leaders of  Bahrain - and that things might move quicker than expected towards a cease fire.

As discussed above, from Israel's perspective, the only real "win" in this war will be a regime change  - or a major directional change by whoever takes over the Iranian government.  For the U.S., Trump would probably like to see this end as quickly as possible and be able to claim victory.  Hard to predict how this will play out.

Other

I was supposed to be back in Israeli for Purim and this will be the first time in 16 years or so that I am not in Israel for Purim.  I usually read chapter 8 of Megillat Esther - and sometimes 9 and 10 as well.  But  Israeli air space is closed until Tuesday at earliest. For now, I am hoping that I will be back in time for  Pesach.

There are many other topics to write about - hockey, the upcoming academy awards, the travel situation for flights to and from Israel and other topics.  But I am going to leave these topics for now and hope for a speedy and successful conclusion to this war - peace for Israel and the whole middle east - and
with freedom for Iranians - meaning a government that they install and support - and hopefully one that will be committed to long term peaceful middle east - with all of its neighbours- including Israel.

And wishing everyone a happy and healthy Purim!

Israel Update July 4, 2025 - Close to a Deal with Hamas?

I arrived back in Israel last Friday, shortly after President Trump had declared a cease fire between Iran and Israel.  I had to scramble to find a ticket to Israel and wound up flying on Arkia Airlines from Athens.

Getting to and From Israel

In case you are thinking of flying Arkia - my suggestion would be to try to find something else if you can. 

I arrived in Athens via Air Canada and was supposed to have about four hours until my Arkia flight.  Of course there is no baggage transfer agreement so I had to go through Greek immigration (which had a long line-up but moved quickly), pick up my suitcase (which wasn't too bad) and then go check in for the Arkia flight.  Surprisingly, when I got to the Arkia counter, I was offered the chance to get on an earlier flight (almost 3 hours earlier than scheduled).  I asked if I would have enough time (only 45 minutes left according to the flight schedule).  I was assured I would be fine so I took the earlier flight - no extra charge.

From the check-in counter, I had to go through the Greek exit security (Immigration).  The line-up  was unbelievably long and very slow.  Pylons everywhere directing people to walk up and down temporary aisles.  Every few minutes, the authorities would call out an airline and destination and take people out of the line-up into an expedited process.  "Anyone on the Air Canada flight to Toronto? Come with me..."  As I was waiting in line, I noticed that we were only about 30 minutes before departure time, but nobody was calling out Arkia passengers to Tel-Aviv.

I finally got through this line up at 12:55, which was exactly the boarding time for the flight.  But still no call for Arkia passengers.  I still had to go through personal security (the x-ray machines etc.,).  By the time I left the whole area and headed towards the gate - it was about 1:15.  I got to the gate - and no worries - there was a whole line-up of Arkia passengers waiting in line.  Boarding was delayed.  We would still need to take a bus to the plane and then board.

Ultimately, the "earlier" flight that I was able to get on - left 1.5 hours after its revised scheduled time - which was about 4.5 hours after its original scheduled time.  So I actually wound up leaving about half an hour before my originally scheduled time even though I was put on an earlier flight.  Meanwhile the flight that I had been scheduled for originally wound up about two and a half hours late.

For this privilege, I had to spend about $600 - the only way available to get to Israel - during that period of time. (That was just the cost of a one way Arkia ticket from Athens to Tel-Aviv).

Since last week, several airlines have resumed flights to Israel but so far it is mainly the Israeli carriers and a handful of others - Arkia, Israir, Tus Airlines and of course El Al.  Several other airlines have announced that they will be resuming service but at all different dates. From my quick look at the Ben Gurion Arrivals board today - there are flights showing for Air France, Fly Dubai, Delta and some other airlines - though some of these may be code shares with El Al or other airlines.

Over the coming months, it certainly appears that more and more airlines will resume service as long as the security situation continues to improve.  I understand that British Airways, Wizz Air, Air Canada, American Airlines and several others have cancelled their service to Israel until well after September 2025.  If you are planning to come to Israel (let's say for a wedding and a Hina or something like that....), the only airline you are really going to be able to count on for the coming months is El Al, which has demonstrated that it will continue to fly to Israel even in the most difficult conditions - albeit at very exorbitant prices.

It is likely that Arkia, Israir, Tus Airways and Blue Bird airways will also continue to fly - especially from Cyprus or Athens - and maybe  from Rome. These may all be fine as long as you don't mind lengthy delays and sky high baggage charges. After that, some of the airlines that have been willing to bring back their service more quickly than others have been Aegean Airlines (Greece), Fly Dubai, Emirates, Ethiopian Air and Lufthansa.  Several other airlines have scheduled dates for return in August 2025 including United Airlines - but I think it is going to be questionable for now to rely on United.  For Canadians, we may well not see Air Canada resuming its Tel-Aviv service until deep into the fall or even sometime until 2026 but hopefully, with a pending cease fire, Air Canada will resume sooner rather than later.

Gaza War

As of the time I am writing this article, indications are that Hamas is prepared to accept or mostly accept - a cease fire deal for 60 days proposed by President Trump and his negotiators.  I am not going to get into all of the specifics here other than to say that the deal apparently calls for the immediate release of 8 live Israeli hostages by Hamas, followed by the release of 15 bodies.  2 more live Israeli hostages would be released 60 days later, with information provided about the remaining hostages at some point along the way. Estimates are that between 20 and 23 Israeli hostages are still alive and that Hamas is holding a total of approximately 50 hostages in total - including those who are no longer living.

Israel would release hundreds of Hamas prisoners, many of whom are facing lengthy prison sentences for violent terrorist attacks.  Negotiations would continue over the coming 60 days for a settlement of all outstanding issues.  If negotiations fail, hostilities could resume though President Trump is apparently providing "personal assurances" that the war will not restart.  Of course there is nothing more reliable than the word of President Trump - so the Hamas terrorists will certainly take comfort knowing that they have the President's promise.  (You can read this any way you like, depending on your politics).

The war with Hamas will not go down in Israeli history as one of Israel's great victories.  Israel suffered tremendous losses initially - civilian and military losses - and whole villages were wiped out by Hamas even though they will now be rebuilt. While Israel was able to assassinate many Hamas leaders and destroy a significant part of Gaza, Israel was not able to recover the hostages militarily, defeat Hamas or end, definitively, its rule in Gaza.

881 Israeli soldiers have been killed since October 7, 2023 and close to 6,000 have been injured.

The war has also caused a high rate of casualties for Palestinians in Gaza, although the breakdown between military and civilian casualties is difficult to ascertain.  While the Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" claims that more than 59,600 Palestinians have been killed, there is a great deal of uncertainty when examining any claims made by Hamas.  We do not know how many of these Palestinian casualties were Hamas fighters, though it is likely to be a fairly high number.

It does appear that as the war has progressed, the proportion of Palestinian civilians being killed relative to the total numbers of casualties has been growing -  even though the numbers are likely not as as high as those reported by Hamas.  We also know of several cases where Hamas claimed that Israeli troops opened fire on groups of civilians - and it turned out that the reports were completely false (even after they were reported as true by the BBC, for example).(The BBC later recanted and apologized).

Unquestionably this war has been a disaster for Hamas and for the Palestinians living in Gaza.  But it was also the culmination of several smaller wars started by Hamas over the past several years since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005 and Hamas took over the Gaza strip.

Ultimately the only long term solution for the Palestinians in Gaza is going to be having a government committed to resolving issues peacefully with Israel rather than militarily.  Hopefully that train has not left the station.  Continued Hamas rule will only lead to more violent confrontations with Israel.  President Trump's plan of "voluntary relocation" coupled with building a riviera in Gaza might be dismissed as a pipedream (or a war crime) but the geography, topography and location of Gaza does create endless economic possibilities if Gaza were to be run in a collaborative way with Israel.

Other Regional Developments

Israelis were hoping (and continue to hope) for a regime change in Iran and the emergence of a new Iranian government willing to make peace with Israel.  One of Israeli's leading Iranian experts, Benny Sabati, who was born in Iran and lived there for several years before emigrating to Israel, predicts that within 3 to 5 years, Iran will have diplomatic relations with Israel.  He believes that the current Iranian regime will fall during this period of time.  Let's hope that he is correct. A  change of regime in Iran could lead to very significant developments in the Middle East and a future with much more  stability.

President Trump and  Israeli officials are openly talking about trying to add Lebanon and  Syria to the Abraham Accords.  I think the talk about Syria is likely somewhat premature since it will be difficult to resolve the dispute over the Golan Heights.  During President Trump's first term, he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan  Heights (which Israel first captured in the 1967 Six Day War).  Syria is not about to enter into a peace arrangement with Israel that sees Israel continuing to hold the Golan Heights - and Israel is  not about to give up the Golan  Heights to a Jihadi-led, ISIS inspired neighbour.  If Syria gives up its dream of taking back the Golan Heights - at least for now - perhaps a peace deal can be signed but I am not holding my breath on that one.

Now that Assad is out of the picture in Syria and Hezbollah has been weakened, there may be no impediment to Lebanon coming to a deal with Israel.  A stable Lebanon, with the restoration of Beirut as the "Paris of the Middle East" would be a very exciting development - not just for Lebanon and its people but for the whole of the Middle East.  It this were to happen, it would be a direct result of one of the clear victories in Israel's current war - the tremendous weakening of Hezbollah as a regional force, one which controlled and terrorized the people  of Lebanon for many years.

Meanwhile, if Iran sets out to rebuild its nuclear program as quickly as possible, there may be a second round of this war between Iran and Israel, though it may be a year or two down the road.  The alternative for Iran will be a negotiated solution with the United States and Israel - and perhaps the Iranian leadership will start to falter afterwards. In the short term, it  is hard to predict which way this will go.  In the long term, we have to be optimistic that the people of Iran will be able to shed themselves of this horrible dictatorship.

Bibi's Trial

One cannot overestimate the impact of Prime Minister Netanyahu's current criminal trial on all of  these matters. Bibi is currently in the midst of his cross examination, even though last week he asked the court for a two week hiatus to deal with "security affairs."  The court agreed so the cross-examinations will not resume until the week of July 14th, I believe.

We are clearly at the "meat" of the trial - the cross-examination, and Bibi has no interest in having this continue.  It is embarrassing, excruciating and by most analysts' accounts that I have read - unwinnable.  Accordingly, Bibi had his lawyers contact the state prosecutors last week to feel out the prosecution for a plea bargain deal. (His lawyers later issued a denial that they initiated the contacts).

It appears that all of the lawyers, on both sides of this trial, recognize that Netanyahu is highly likely to be  convicted on at least some counts if this ever gets to a verdict. As  I have said previously, I do not believe we will ever see a verdict in this case.

If a conviction,  as part of a verdict or a plea bargain deal, carries with it the designation of "Kahlon" or "moral turpitude," Netanyahu, under Israeli law, would be barred from running for office for several years.  He is not prepared to agree to that.

On the other hand, the state is not prepared to agree to a guilty plea to only more minor offences, especially since the prosecution feels very confident that it can get a conviction with "Kahlon."

One way of trying to change this reality for Bibi has been a campaign to oust the current Attorney General, replace her with someone more "Bibi-friendly" and then negotiate a deal that is more palatable.  Bibi and his Likud party  have been trying to do this - but they face several legal hurdles and conflict of  interest allegations that are making it difficult to replace the AG.

A second alternative, floated by some of Bibi's Likud party members just last week, would be to legislate an end to the trial.  This would be shocking.  Even some Likud members have indicated that they would not support it  And the Israeli Supreme Court would surely strike it down.  I am hopeful that this idea is a non-starter. Netanyahu would need an even more right-wing government to have a chance at pulling this off.

A third idea, and I think one that is most likely at this point, is a negotiated plea-bargain deal combined with a pardon from President Herzog.  This type of  deal might allow Bibi to plead guilty to more serious offences (which would save face for the prosecution) but with a pardon, he would still be able to run again.  The issue is that this could cause somewhat of a crisis for the justice system.  The State would have to demonstrate that it obtained some concessions from Bibi in exchange for the pardon, even though the pardon would be coming from the President rather  than the State.  So Bibi will have to give something to get this type of deal - and I am not really sure what that could be.

There is another alternative.  The current Israeli government might fall, even without a plea bargain deal in place  for Bibi and he may hope that an election will give him a government more willing to help him deal with his criminal challenges. In my view, that is probably a risky strategy.  I think we are more likely to see  a deal in place before an election is called.

I am not going to spend much time dealing with President Trump's tweets calling for Israel to "free Bibi from his trial" as if this were a purely political trial. Fortunately, Israel is not a banana republic (not yet anyways) and none of the actors involved in Bibi's trial (the judges, the prosecutors etc.,) are going to be moved by Trump's calls.  It is more likely that Trump's tweets show a certain desperation on Bibi's part as he tries to enlist the help of Trump to get him out of his legal predicament.  In fact, a number of Israeli commentators speculated that the tweets were written by Bibi himself based on the language used. I am not in a position to comment one way or other but it is an extraordinary level of interference by President Trump into Israel's domestic affairs.  Then again, Bibi himself did everything he could to help the Republicans defeat Obama, Biden and Harris - so interference in domestic political affairs for Bibi and for Trump are par for the course.

Mood in Israel

Israelis are a resilient lot - they have to be to survive in this area of the world.  The 12 day war with Iran was quite frightening.  Many buildings were destroyed. 29 people were killed and more than 3,200 were injured.  But the war was perceived as a major military victory for Israel - perhaps one  of  historic proportions.

The war with Hamas has been going on since October 7, 2023  and over the past few weeks, Israelis have been receiving reports of soldiers dying in battle almost daily.  I believe that the majority of Israelis are hoping that this war with Hamas will end as soon as possible and that things will start to improve.  In other words, I think there is a combination of despair over how things have gone in Gaza but cautious optimism about the future.

Concerts and events have reopened. The airport is gradually increasing its capacity.  I am hopeful that by the end of August (big event time for us...), things will be even better than they are now.

Sports News

I do not have too much to write about sports as the moment.  But I thought I would mention a couple of things quickly.

The Israeli men's national football (soccer) team is trying to qualify for the 2026 world cup.  Israel is in a group with Norway, Estonia, Italy and  Moldova.  On June 6, 2025, Israel beat Estonia for the second time.  Israel will play Moldova on September 5th in Moldova and it will play Italy on September 8, 2025 in Hungary.  It will also play Norway  on October 11, 2025 in Oslo.  Israel lost its first game to Norway but as of now, still has a chance to make it into the 2026 World Cup.  It looks like the road will go through Rome - (Israel will have to beat Italy) but stay tuned.

Israeli TV does not broadcast very many baseball games - but I couldn't resist streaming last night's Blue Jay game.  The Blue Jays swept the New York Yankees in a four game series, featuring a gazillion runs, which moved the Blue Jays into first place in their division.  Even if that is only temporary and even though it is only July, it was still pretty exciting. There may be some very meaningful baseball games for Toronto fans to watch in October.

I think that is about it for now - but I wanted to share these thoughts and wish everyone  a Shabbat Shalom, a happy Fourth of July, a belated Happy Canada Day - and a celebration of all the great events that our family has in July - birthdays, an anniversary etc., Hoping for some good news in the coming days including the return of our  hostages, the cessation of hostilities and maybe even an Israeli election call.

Israel, Iran, the U.S. and More - June 22, 2025

Fordow Nuclear Plant, Iran

I left Israel on June 9th with the intention of coming to Toronto for about 2 weeks - and getting back to Israel on June 23rd.  Although I wrote, in my blog on May 30th about the possibility of something major happening, including a possible attack on Iran by Israel, I had no idea about the possible scale, timing and implications of the operation that would be carried out.  Now, here we are, less than one day after the U.S. has stepped into the fray with its attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites - and there is much to write about.

Some Comments about the Operation

As I have discussed previously, it is hard to view this as an "attack" or an "aggression" by Israel.  Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been fighting a multi-front war with Iran and its proxies, which was all initiated by Iran.  Iran was responsible for funding and training Hamas and Hezbollah, for arming the Houthis and for supporting other terroristic attacks against Israel worldwide.  All while threatening that it was finally about to destroy Israel.  In context, Israel's operation that started on June 13th, 2025 (6-13 for  those who like to think about this biblically  - being the  total number of mitzvoth according to Jewish tradition) is really a counterattack in response the multi-front war initiated by Iran including Iran's own ballistic missile attacks against Israel.

There was a significant indication that Iran was racing towards rolling out a nuclear bomb - and its stated intention was to use it.  Since Israel's attack, various international  sources have confirmed that this was the case. So the perceived urgency on the part of Israel - was that Iran was getting "too close for comfort" to using a nuclear weapon against Israel - something Israel couldn't wait for. 

The initial stage of this counterattack was carried out by Israel with near perfection, according to most reports and was historic, dramatic and brilliantly effective.

As you know from various reports, more than 30 top Iranian commanders, including the head of the Air Force, the head of the Army and the head of the ballistic missile program, were all killed on the first night of the operation.  This apparently included the use of Mossad agents and AI to lure various Iranian senior officers into a mass gathering, at which they were attacked and killed.  Together with this, Israel established air superiority and has carried out attacks on Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, missile launch sites and other equipment. Many Iranian nuclear scientists have also been killed.

Iranian Response

Since June 13th, Iran's primary response has been to launch ballistic missiles, drones and other missiles at Israel.  According to an article in the Jerusalem Post written moments ago, Iran has launched approximately 500 ballistic missiles at Israel since June 13th and close to 500 drones.  Most of these missiles and almost all of the drones have been intercepted.  However, a significant number have hit Israel.  Most of these missiles have targeted civilian targets.  Among the hardest hit locations have been the Soroka Hospital in Beersheva, the Rambam hospital in Haifa, a mosque (the Al-Jarina Mosque) in Haifa and several residential buildings in Ramat Gan, Bat Yam, Rishon L'Tzion, Nes Ziona and other places.  A large research facility was destroyed at the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, much of which housed advanced cancer research facilities.  More than 25 Israelis have been killed, several hundred people have been injured (it may be over a thousand at this point) and more than 25,000 property damage claims have been filed by Israelis with the Israeli government.  (The Israeli government covers a significant amount of the property damage in these circumstances).  Unlike the Hamas-controlled hospitals in Gaza, the Israeli hospitals did not house any military bases, missiles or army equipment.  Iran's primary attacks have been against civilians.

On Saturday June 21, the Iranians began using additional types of missiles including missiles that they have purchased from North Korea - that can change directions and evade the U.S. THAAD systems and the Israeli anti-ballistic missile systems - at least some of the time.  Some of these missiles have included Iran's "Haj Qasem" missiles which are armed with cluster bombs and  massive warheads. At least two or three of these have landed in Israel and caused massive damage.  The deadliest missile used so far by Iran is the Hwasong 10 from North Korea - named the Khorramshahr by Iran.  This is apparently the missile that hit the Soroka Hospital last week. It carries more than 1,500 kilograms of explosives.

Although Israel has been defending against these missile attacks - with the help of the U.S., Jordan and other regional allies, some of these missiles  have still been getting through and causing quite a bit of  damage.  Israel has been attacking missile storage sites, launching  equipment and other targets, but it is quite likely that Iran still has significant capacity to  cause severe damage with various types of ballistic missiles.

Israel has an alert system in place and usually have 10-13 minutes to get to the nearest bomb shelter (or in-house "safe room") if the missiles are coming from Iran or Yemen, and less time if they are coming from Lebanon.  Since 1991, Israeli buildings are all built with at least one thick-walled concrete room per floor (or per unit) with a heavy metal door - than can withstand shrapnel, hits to other parts of the building and other types of attacks.  These safe rooms cannot withstand direct hits. But the vast  majority of Israelis who have been in safe rooms when their buildings have been hit - or when nearby buildings have been hit -  have suffered only minor injuries.

I should note that Iran has hit other targets, including an Oil Refinery in Haifa and some targets about which details have not been released or published.  Still it is apparent that the vast majority of targets have been civilian.

The U.S Entry

As you may know, according to many different world reports, only the U.S. has the type of bunker busting bombs that would be necessary to  destroy some of the Iranian nuclear facilities - including the Fordow nuclear plant which was 90 metres below ground in central Iran.  Fordow has or had more than 3,000 centrifuges and was being used to enrich uranium to near-bomb grade of close to 90% U-235.

President Trump said in a statement earlier today that the Fordow plant has been "obliterated."  I hope that he is right - but I am not sure that the U.S. has the full damage assessment yet.  Reports are that Iran has already produced approximately 500 kilograms of near weapons-grade uranium and the Iranians claim that this uranium was moved to a secret location before the U.S. attacks.

In my  view, it is more likely than not that this whole operation was jointly planned with the Israelis from the outset.  It seems unlikely to me that Israel would have embarked on an operation against Iran, on this scale, while knowing that it could not destroy the Fordow plant itself.  

President Trump was under intense pressure from different elements of his party. The "hawks," including Lindsay Graham and others were pushing Trump to "seize the moment" and help Israel destroy the nuclear plants.  In their view, it was a necessary step not only to protect Israel - but to protect the whole world - including, in particular, U.S interests in the region, from a nuclear armed Iran.  The evangelical wing, including ambassador Mike Huckabee, were pushing Trump to act because it was "God's will."  Weighed against this, Trump was  getting an earful from "isolationists" and anti-Israeli voices including Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Marjorie Green.  In the end, he sided, as we know with the hawks and evangelicals - and with the Israeli right.  To the extent that one might wonder about a particular angle by considering the voices who are advocating it - it seems that any rational decision maker - when faced with a unified position coming from Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Marjorie Green - might wish to decide exactly the opposite of whatever they are proposing.

In an interesting interview that I heard recently, a former Israel ambassador indicated that even the JOCPA (the nuclear deal with Iran that President Obama had signed) was only going to buy the world some additional time - and still would have permitted Iran to develop a nuclear weapon eventually. In other words, even those on Obama's team recognized that the JOCPA was a very flawed deal.  However, even through Trump ripped up the deal during his first term - Trump did not replace it with anything - nor did he attack Iran militarily.  So he left Iran sailing towards a nuclear bomb, at a much faster clip - and now had to deal with the consequences of that policy. Granted in the intervening period - President Biden took no  discernible action on this file. In short, there is enough blame to go around between Obama, Trump and Biden, but President Trump was now the one to take the courageous decision to destroy these plants (or at least try to).

What Now?

At this point, we are waiting to see how Iran will respond to the U.S. attacks.  Iran sent a barrage of missiles to Israel just hours after the U.S. attacks and some of them landed in Israel, causing significant civilian damage and  injuring many Israelis.

But Iran and its leadership have a choice to make at this point.  If they decide to "go all in" in a war with the U.S. - that is almost certainly going to end in disaster for this Iranian regime.  They have been weakened militarily by Israel's attacks since June 13, 2025 and, according to most reports, they do not seem to be in any position to take on the U.S. Army.  However, since at least some of the leadership are fanatic, suicidal and not necessarily realistic about their prospects, they may decide to go this route and hope that other countries join or assist them (Russia? North Korea? China? others). In my view, this would be a dangerous escalation but is really not likely to end well for Iran.  I would hope that someone will  deliver this prognosis to the Iranian Supreme Leader - but he may not be in any mood to hear it - or to listen to it.  This might draw President Trump and the U.S. into a  war to a greater extent than they had hoped, but I believe that it will be, primarily, a campaign of aerial and missile attacks. Hopefully, the Iranians will not be able to produce and deploy a nuclear weapon during the course of this fight.

A second option is for the Iranians to effectively "surrender" to the U.S. and agree to U.S. terms for a cease fire.  I believe that this is highly unlikely at this point.  It would result in the disintegration of the Iranian regime and it would be humiliating.  It is apparently not a consideration for the current Iranian leadership even if things continue to deteriorate.

A third option would be, what I would call - a hybrid.  It is possible, in my view, that Iran will attack some U.S. bases but to a limited extent - with relatively minimal damage.  This would allow Iran to claim (to the Iranian public and the world) that it had responded to the U.S. attack with "devastating results" and was now ready to negotiate.  If the U.S. were to decide that it could "live with" the damage caused - this might be a way out for both parties.  If the Iranians go too far and actually damage U.S. interests significantly - they will be met by a massive response from the U.S. Nevertheless, I think that this is the most realistic possibility for a quick end to the situation, provided that the Iranians are willing to end their nuclear program and agree to U.S. inspections as part of a deal.

One Israel-based commentator noted earlier today that the Iranians made exactly this type of "least worst" deal when ending the Iran-Iraq war.  They publicly characterized it as drinking a cup of poison to save the regime.  

If Iran does not find a way to negotiate a resolution, the continuation of the current war is likely to devastate Iran and bring about the downfall of the current regime.  The difficulty then becomes figuring out how Iran can govern itself without descending into a chaotic civil war or anarchy.

It is possible that other players will become involved and will threaten the use of nuclear weapons - and try to cause this conflict to spread.  I believe that the chances of this happening are relatively low since I do not believe that Russia or China want to go "all in" at this point - to hope a fanatical Iranian regime - despite the lip service that they might pay to that possibility.

Situation in Israel

As of last night, the Homefront Command in Israel announced the full emergency measures were in place.  No gatherings of more than 30 people, schools and universities closed - and most establishments closed other than those designated as "essential."

The airport was officially closed last night - however, it was reopened (partially today).

For Israelis looking to get back to Israel - and yes, many thousands are, some Israeli airlines have organized "rescue" flights. El Al, Arkia and Israir are asking people to sign up and are prioritizing them according to various factors including  any  humanitarian issues (need for medicine or medical treatment, family situation etc.,.)  In English, these flights are being called "repatriation flights" but in Hebrew the word is "chilutz" which means rescue.  

This means that I could agree to be "rescued" from Canada and  make my way back to Israel by flying from one of several destinations chosen by El Al - including Rome, Larnaca (Cyprus), Athens and some yet to be named U.S. cities - likely New York and Los Angeles.  However, this would, of course, be a one-way flight.  Given that I have certain work commitments in July, including some trials that I am running in Toronto, it would be risky to go back to Israel indefinitely at this time (irrespective of the potential physical danger, which I am less worried about). 

Some Israelis are coming back to Israel by boat. For example, I have some family members who are getting on a cruise ship from Cyprus and taking a 15 hour cruise back to Israel.   That actually sounds like fun - as long as the accompanying navy destroyer can protect the cruise ship from any  incoming missiles.  

It would probably seem surreal to be on a cruise ship, complete with its fine dining restaurants, gambling rooms, swimming pools and perhaps even some entertainment, while on the way back to Israel to face the uncertainty  of nightly missile attacks. 

For those looking to leave Israel, the options are limited.  I read that El Al would now be departing with a maximum of 50 passengers on a range of flights though I am not sure how easy it is to get a seat on these flights.  Some birthright groups and others left Israel on those same cruise ships - to Cyprus - and picked up flights from there  

The magnanimous and considerate Canadian  government has offered to provide a free bus ride for Canadians from Tel-Aviv to Amman.  From Amman, they are "on their own" though the Canadian government will try to help people find flights from Amman to other locations and eventually back to Canada.  I spoke to someone yesterday at Synagogue - who told me that their family member took one of these rides to Amman and has now been told that the next available flight out is July 3rd, 2025 - or about 11 days from now.  

My understanding is that Amman does not have the types of shelters that Israel does and his being hit with occasional pieces of missiles that have been shot down. As well, the Jordanian airport has been opening and closing depending on the situation.  Even though Jordanian falafel is apparently quite good, I would rather wait in Israel and take my chances in the Israeli shelters. But maybe that's just me...

In contrast to Canada, by the way, the U.S. has been organizing flights for U.S. citizens from Tel-Aviv to Athens.  Americans can register with the U.S. government and wait to be notified of an available flight. Beats a bus ride to Amman, in my view, even though the falafels at the Ben Gurion airport (if any of the food places are open) might not be as tasty as those in Amman. (Though in Israel they will be Kosher).

Religion

I couldn't finish this blog without mentioning at least 2 or 3 religious references.

For one thing, many observant Jews were convinced that the U.S. attack would take place this week to coincide with the dates in the  Biblical story of Purim on which King Achashverosh decreed that the Jewish of Shushan (modern day Iran) and surrounding areas could defend themselves with arms against those who were seeking to kill them.  Okay the date did not work out exactly as planned -  but considering that the operation was planned months ago  for  6-13 - this may well have been a consideration.

I am part of a social media group that discusses "leining issues" (issues relating to the reading of the weekly Torah portion. There was a whole discussion - about what happens if a forced synagogue closure causes a shul to skip the weekly Torah reading.  Does it do a double reading the next week?  Apparently, the halachic answer was that you read the entire previous week's portion as the first aliyah, combined with the first aliyah for that week.  That is a lot of Torah reading!  Everyone has their own priority list of issues to consider when dealing with ongoing missile barrages.  (Other Israelis are preoccupied with which items they need to keep in the safe room - in ready-to-go bags - in case the building is hit by a missile and  destroyed). 

Lastly - I note that Prime Minister Netanyahu found quite a healthy dose of religion over the past few days.  Just now, I heard him explaining that he wrapped himself in a Tallith, visited the Kotel and said "Shema Yisrael" just before authorizing the Israeli operation.  He said that he repeated this gestures in thanks yesterday after hearing from President Trump that the operation had been a success. This is fascinating coming from an avowedly secular Prime Minister.  Perhaps the more cynical among us might wonder if he is trying  to appeal to his Orthodox supporters to bolster his support -  but surely Prime Minister Netanyahu could not be that cynical...could he?  I leave that to you to determine.

Conclusion

We remain hopeful that our planned family wedding for September 4th will go ahead along with all of the other events including the aufruf, Hina and Shabbat dinner. Hopefully, there will be some kind of deal in place - with Iran and Hamas, the war will be over and the hostages will be back home.  And I hope that I will have been able to go back and forth at least once or twice between now and then.

There are many things that I have not covered  in this blog - just too much going on - so I will save some material for next time. In the meantime, I am hoping and praying for the safety of our Israeli armed forces in carrying out their operations, for the safety of Israeli civilians all over Israel (Jewish, Christian and Muslim - all of whom have been targeted by Iranian missiles), for the safe return of the  hostages and an end to the Gaza war  and for an end to this war that results in many years of peace in the Middle East. Shavua Tov.