Oct 7 Anniversary and Other thoughts

One Year Anniversary of October 7, 2023

It is the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, which began at 6:28 a.m. on October 7, 2023.  That day, more than 3,000 armed Hamas terrorists crossed into Israel in 4x4s and on motorcycles and went on a murderous killing spree.  They attacked the nearby communities, murdering and raping residents, burning down homes and businesses, and taking hostages back to Gaza.  They also attacked a music festival - the Nova Festival at which more than 4,500 participants from around the world were attending a trance music festival.  They murdered more than 400 concertgoers and injured hundreds more.  In total, more than 1,200 Israelis were murdered and more than 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages.  It was the worst single day for the loss of Jewish lives since the Holocaust.  There are still 101 Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, though we do not know how many are still alive.

To commemorate this day, there are many events scheduled across Israel, including two different commemorative events this evening.  One is being organized and run by the government, specifically Minister Miri Regev.  Another event is being run by the families of the hostages and families of the victims.  Perhaps not surprisingly, it is the second event that will have the star-studded line up of Israeli performers, volunteering their time, to lead mournful songs for the Israeli public, though their event will take place starting at 7:15 p.m., followed by the "official" Israel event at 9:30 p.m. (Israel time).

Last night, we went to a special event at the Peres Center in Yafo, Tel-Aviv.  There is a huge photographic exhibition of photos by photographer Ziv Koren, aimed at memorializing and preserving the memory of one of the greatest disasters in Israel's history. We walked around looking at the exhibit and then went upstairs to see a special screening of the movie "We Will Dance Again" - a documentary about the massacres at the Nova festival - as told through the words and experiences of some of the survivors.  It was chilling and powerful.  Numbing and paralyzing, in fact.  The movie was fairly graphic and does feature footage, in some cases taken  by Hamas terrorists on their cell phones - and in other cases by victims or witnesses on cell phones that were recovered - of brutal murders of defenseless victims.

The evil displayed in the film is simply boundless and frightening.  There were some incredible stories of bravery and heroism.  For example, Aner Shapira, who was a member of the Nahal military unit.  He was attending the Nova Festival as a civilian.  He and a whole group of others hid in a protective shelter.  Hamas found the shelter and began throwing grenades into the shelter.  Shapira grabbed and threw back 7 live grenades before they could explode in the shelter.  The 8th one exploded and Shapira was killed. But 7 of the people in the shelter managed to survive and they believe that this was at least, in part, due to the heroic actions of Shapira.

One year later, there are still more than 100 hostages being held by Hamas, dead or alive. The war with Hamas is still raging, though Hamas has suffered enormous damage.  Israeli estimates that at the start of the war, Hamas had approximately 40,000 fighters spread among its various units.  Hamas has not differentiated in its reports of casualties between fighters and civilians but Israeli officials maintain that a significant number of those 40,000 fighters have been killed.  In other words, any  publicized Hamas numbers of casualties, which are  from the "Hamas Health Ministry" include large numbers of fighters, though we do not know exact percentages.

Israel has destroyed many of the Hamas-built tunnels in Gaza and has severely damaged the Hamas forces.  But the hostages have still not been returned and the fighting still continues. Hamas has not yet surrendered or been defeated - and the hostages have not yet been freed.  But Israel is hopeful that this will happen soon.

Lebanon and Iran

Meanwhile, fighting in Israel's north has now become the main focal point for the Israeli army.  After all, Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon began firing rockets at Israel on October 7, 2023, at the start of the attack - in "sympathy" with Hamas.  This was a concerted and deliberate attack, orchestrated by Iran.  Unfortunately for Hamas and fortunately for Israel, this did not turn out the way that Hamas had planned it.  Hamas was apparently aiming to take over several Israel towns and cities including Ashkelon and Ashdod. Hamas was also hoping that Hezbollah and Iran would join the war fully at the outset.  

As you might recall, the United States sent immediate and massive military reinforcements, which undoubtedly helped deter Hezbollah and Iran from widening the war at the outset.  But although that may have deterred Hezbollah and Iran from widening the war at that point, it did not deter Hezbollah from firing rockets, sending drones, firing RPGs and other forms of attack at Israel.  Since October 7, 2023, tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their homes in the north and have not been able to return.  Israel has absorbed massive damage throughout the north - in cities like Kiryat Shemona - all the way to Safed and Tiberias.  Homes, businesses, vineyards and other agricultural areas have been attacked, burned and destroyed.

For many residents of Israel's north, the recent start of the counterattack against Hezbollah  in the north was long overdue.  Northerners have felt abandoned.  Unable to return home, to their businesses, their lives in the north - they have begged the Israeli government to take action.  The government and the army seem to have made a strategic decision to try and fight one major front at a time - and have only now turned to dealing with Hezbollah in the north.

As you may know, the fighting is now raging in Lebanon between the Israeli army and  Hezbollah.  The main goal is to reach some  kind of agreement whereby Hezbollah will agree to move its forces away  from the border  - and there will be some mechanism for enforcing that deal.  The hope is that Israel's northern residents will be able to return to their homes. In 2006, a deal like that was reached - but it was not followed by Hezbollah - which built tunnels and stationed troops on Israel's border starting just after that deal. So far, Hezbollah is not wavering - and is indicating that it will not agree to such a deal - even though much of its leadership has been destroyed in attacks  by Israeli forces.  

So Israeli forces may well be in for a lengthy and  difficult battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon until a deal can be reached that will allow residents on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border to live in peace.

Of course, in the midst of all of this, we are waiting to see how and when Israel will respond to the massive Iranian attack - during which more than 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel.  Although many were shot down by Israeli defence systems, it is apparent that many landed - although we do  not know the details of the damage that was caused.  

There are discussions of which targets Israel will go after in Iran - missile storage silos, the Iranian nuclear program - the oil fields.....or the political leadership.  And when this response will occur.  We have heard President Biden ruminating about which targets Israel should not hit (though who knows whether this is all part of some kind of deception) and we have heard French President Macron warning Israel about responsive actions that it might take.  Perhaps Israel has already decided - and put together a plan - or perhaps they are still working with the U.S.  and other countries to decide on the right  approach.  I have no idea but it seems all but certain that there will be a significant retaliation by Israel in the coming days.  Perhaps, this will help nudge the Iranian people towards changing their leadership and freeing themselves from the fanatical ultra-religious government that controls their lives.  

Whatever Israel does chose to do, it is clear that it will not be targeting civilians.  There is no equivalence between the Hamas attacks on Israel and the responses from Israel.  Israel will pursue military targets, those responsible and facilities used for supporting the attacks against Israel.  Even though this has meant many civilian casualties in Gaza, Israel has not targeted civilians deliberately. Civilian casualties in a war always occur - and especially where the fighting forces are embedded in schools, hospitals and religious institutions.  But there is a massive difference between civilian deaths that occur during fighting between military forces - and terrorists that run around shooting unarmed civilians, burning down houses, raping and dismembering victims.  I haven't seen any credible suggestions that Israeli forces have been involved in  this type of activity.

So Israel is not about to attack Iranian civilians.  In fact, in the long run - I believe that one day, when Iran unshackles itself, Israelis believe that we will have good relations with Iran and the Iranian people - perhaps even the Lebanese as well - if Lebanon and Iran can succeed in changing their governments.

For now, however, we are sitting somewhat on edge, waiting to see what type of action Israel will take, how successful it will be and what will happen afterwards.  

Yesterday, there were reports of an earthquake in Iran.  I couldn't help but wonder - can Israel create an earthquake?  Was this the famous Israeli agent "Rita Tadama?" (like the agent "Eli Copter" who was alleged to have killed the Iranian leader or the agent "Moti Rola" responsible for the beeper attacks). Another theory, that I am writing in an updated version of this article, is that Iran was testing nuclear weapons.  But I digress. 

Something is likely to happen soon and we will have to hope that it leads to worldwide pressure (on all of the players, not just Israel) for a full, global deal - one that returns the hostages, moves the Hezbollah forces back from Israel's border, ends all of the fighting and leads to a broader discussion of how to deal with Gaza and the West Bank in the long range. Stay tuned.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, there are now very limited options for getting to Israel.  El Al, Israel's national (though private) airline, continues to fly and earn record profits.  Israeli carriers Israir and Arkia are also flying and a handful of foreign carriers.  This morning's paper reported that there are flights available to Romania - but that flights to closer destinations - such has Athens and Cyprus are now costing upwards of $700 for a one-way flight.

Most other airlines have cancelled or postponed their service.  All of the Star Alliance carriers have stopped flying as have the carriers of the other major world alliances.  

To get here this time, I flew to Rome on Air Canada and then took an El Al flight from Rome - one day later.  So I had to "suffer" in Rome for a day.  I visited "Flour, Farina e Cucina" a Kosher dairy restaurant in Rome - wandered the city and had some delicious gelato.  The next morning, I got on the flight from Rome to Israel with one of the few remaining "reasonable priced" tickets.  Somehow, I was chosen for an upgrade to business class on this three-hour flight.  So I enjoyed a full Israeli breakfast and a cappuccino on the flight - even though there was no entertainment system or trappings of business class that you might get on other airlines.  

One of our family members travelling to the U.S. was supposed to fly on Austrian Airlines shortly before the holidays.  The flight was cancelled at the last minute and he was offered his money back.  But he needed to get to the U.S.  So we pushed and pushed and they put him on a route via Athens on Aegean Airlines.  Just days after he left, Aegean Airlines cancelled all flights to Tel-Aviv.  So we are not sure how he will get back after the holidays but perhaps things will change for the better by then.  We have other friends who have had to cancel flights - or are hoping to get back to Israel somehow.  The only reliable option right now is El Al - from somewhere in the world.  Everything else is questionable.

Diversions

Through all of this, we managed to watch the much discussed Netflix Romcom - "Nobody Wants This" about an interfaith romance between a rabbi and a non Jewish woman.  The main characters are outstanding - compelling, empathetic and interesting.  But, on reflection, the show is somewhat problematic.  I have read many of the different reviews about it and I would agree with two of the primary criticisms.

First of  all, the rabbi in the show is depicted as an incredibly empathetic, decent person - but not really committed to any  Jewish practices or rituals.  He is probably an outstanding family counselor, teacher and listener - all of which are important traits for a rabbi.  Yet, even though everyone knows he is a rabbi - he doesn't seem to follow anything.  He  drives and goes out to restaurants and pubs on Friday nights, leaves his congregation in the middle of services to pursue romantic interests - and eats just about anything - so it seems.  Those around him, including his mother, are portrayed as equally blasé and hypocritical about religious practices.  So perhaps it is not a surprise that he is so attracted to someone outside of his faith. Sure he makes some nice speeches about the importance of religion and his culture and heritage - and his chosen career and calling - and perhaps - he really is reflective of many Reform and Conservative rabbis, especially in the U.S.  But mostly, I tend to doubt it (even though I know of at least two real life stories that seem fairly close to this one).  I would think that if his religious devotion was really that important to him, he would behave differently.

Another major criticism that has been levelled at the show is the way that the Jewish women  are portrayed.  Almost universally - domineering, sexless, controlling, and boring. In contrast with the fun, exciting, non-Jewish, mostly blonde women.  In this repressed world - it is easy  enough to see why the rabbi would be so drawn to the world of excitement.  But it is a very negative portrayal of Jewish women.  One critic suggested that it channeled Woody Allen's Annie Hall in that respect - and there is something to that.  The repressed nerdy Jewish male character looking for excitement by finding the blonde, exciting, non-Jewish, sexually liberated character.   

Perhaps this is how the writer Erin Foster - views her experience as someone who converted to Judaism and married a Jewish person.  Foster had been writing scripts with her sister - much like the protagonist in the film - and may view the Jewish community through the lens of Reform practice.  

Overall, I would say that I quite enjoyed much of this show - though there was a fair bit of cringe - and, ultimately, I am just not convinced about many of the scenes or about the show's ultimate message.  But that may be because I might be considered a bit more to the traditional side of the spectrum.  (Though not too far over).  But it is quite a bit of food for thought in my view, even if there is also quite a bit of fluff and some distastefulness.

The other diversion I wanted to mention is that I recently acquired a board game (one of my major hobbies as you might know) called "Ezra and Nehemiah."  Over the course of the game, players are trying to rebuilt the second Temple in Jerusalem, teach Torah lessons, bring sacrifices to the Cohanim - and take other actions to acquire the most points.  I have been trying to convince my board game group in Israel to try it but we haven't managed to play it yet.  Hopefully we  will get to it shortly.  In case you are wondering what we have been playing - I will mention a few - though it is unlikely you will have heard of them unless you are really interested in the "Euro Board Game" industry.  Brass Birmingham, Trickerion, Ark Nova, Lisboa, Scythe, Kanban.  These are a few of our favourites.  You can read all about them on the site BoardGameGeek.com.  I believe that Brass Birmingham is currently rated as the most popular game in the world on that site.  Most of these games (if not all of them) can be played on Shabbat and are fairly challenging.  But they can take several hours to learn - and several hours to play in many cases.

Rosh Hashanah and  Yom Kippur

We are now in the midst of the "Awesome Days" - the 10 days of Penitence in between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.  On Rosh Hashanah, which we observed on Thursday and Friday - we heard the Shofar and reflected on our past year and on the coming year.  This Friday night and Saturday we will observe Yom Kippur - where I will lead our local Kol Nidrei service - and the next day - the closing Neilah service - at a friend's backyard  with about 50 of our nearest and dearest.  As an aside, I should mention that I am blessed and proud to have a family member leading Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur services at Hillel houses in the U.S. this year - and that is pretty exciting.

One of the most poignant prayers it the centrepiece of both the Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur services - the "Unetaneh Tokef" prayer - in which we actually recite, explicitly, the various ways that people might die in the coming year.  And we hope that through prayer, repentance and good deeds, we will somehow change our fate. Reading that prayer - while considering what happened to so many of our people over the past year - is chilling and difficult.  

And following Yom Kippur - we will be  approaching the holiday  of Sukkot  - which is known as the "time of our happiness." It ends with the festival of Simchat Torah (the day of Rejoicing of the Torah) - which is usually marked by dancing, drinking, singing - and all manners of festivity.  But the Hamas attacks were carried out, quite deliberately, on Simchat Torah last year.  

How do we deal with this?  How can we be "happy" on such a terrible anniversary?

I attended a lecture by Rabbi Shai Held recently - who has written a book called "Judaism Is About Love."  He spoke, in part, about this very challenge.  And he noted that the Jewish people have faced so many horrific events over the years - the destruction of both of our Temples in Jerusalem and our exile from Israel, other exiles and massacres throughout the centuries - including the Spanish Inquisition and Exile, the pogroms in Europe, the Holocaust and so many other tragedies.  And yet, we have, over the years, exhibited a special resilience.  A will to live - and a will to live in a way that emphasizes love rather than hatred - music, togetherness, family.  Rabbi Held noted that only 6 days after Tisha B'Av - the most solemn day of the Jewish calendar on which we commemorate the destruction of the Temples - we mark "Tu B'Av" the day of romance - and the Jewish equivalent of "Valentine's Day" - or something close to it.

In Israel - we commemorate Yom Hazikaron one day - Israel's day of remembrance for soldiers and victims of terror - and the very next day - starting at sunset - we celebrate Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day. So the need to find a way to commemorate the very difficult days but still celebrate and rejoice in life - is one of the key messages of Judaism - as explained by Rabbi Held.  And it is something that I have heard from many soldiers and civilians in Israel over the past year - even those who have lost love ones.

As I mentioned at the outset - I saw the movie "We Will Dance Again" last night - and it was this topic that was raised with the survivors at the end of the movie.  And almost all of them said quite clearly - "I will  dance again."  That theme has been engraved on necklaces that many in Israel are wearing - "We will Dance Again."

And so with that, I hope that this Jewish New Year will bring a year in which the war ends, the hostages are returned to their homes safely, Israelis are able to return to their homes in the south and the north, our soldiers can return home safely and we are able to implement some sort of lasting peace deal.  And that Israelis and our neighbours, who want peace - will have many opportunities to dance again. Shana Tova.

Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.

My Twist on Dr. Suess - the "Waiting Place"

 

Short Blog today - just a bit of a twist on some words of wisdom from Dr. Suess (one of my personal favourites).  As quickly as I put this together, one or two sentences have already become "outdated" - since a Vice-Presidential candidate has been selected - and there has been other activity.  Sinwar has also been "elected" (by himself) to lead Hamas and take over for Haniyeh, who died "mysteriously" in Tehran.   I also have to note that I do  not have any official copyright rights to use and twist this poem - but the changed words are all the works of yours truly.  I think this falls within the category of artistic license. 

Back to a longer blog shortly....

The Waiting Place with apologies to Dr. Suess

Waiting for a drone to come
Or a missile to land – we hope in the sand
Or some bombs to come or some planes to run
Or the siren to ring or the dome to ding

Waiting around for a yes or a no
Waiting for Bibi to go or maybe for Beirut to blow
Maybe Tehran will get something we’ll send 
But still waiting and hoping that this war will end

Waiting for the middle of the night
For lights in the air, oh what a sight
Maybe waiting until Friday night
Or Tisha B’Av to start this fight

Or waiting perhaps for our Uncle Joe
To send more weapons and maybe some dough
Or Sinwar to be caught in an underground tunnel
Or Nasrallah to be found in a fiery funnel

Waiting to see who Harris picks
And to see if Türkiye gets into the mix
Waiting for the Houthis to blow themselves up
And for the Saudis to straighten things up

Waiting to watch what Russia will do
And whether Belerus will join in too
Waiting to see if England and France
Will continue to keep up the same stance.

The whole Mideast in a dangerous dance
Hard to see when peace will have a chance
Everyone is just waiting

Edge of War with Hezbollah? July 2024 Update

Majdal Shams

I was planning another pot pourri blog touching on a  range of topics - including some distractions - like a visit to a winery - but, as you might know, circumstances have changed quite a bit here now since yesterday. I will still add in a few other topics - but I start with what is most urgent.

Hezbollah Attack on Majdal Shams

Hezbollah launched a rocket attack yesterday on the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, which is populated by Druze Israelis.  As you might know, the Druze are Arab Israelis, but not Muslims.  They serve in the Israeli army, speak Hebrew and actively support the State of Israel, while maintaining their own closely knit communities and religious practises.

The rocket attack from Hezbollah yesterday was an Iranian made rocket, carrying more than 50kg of explosives.  It slammed into a soccer field where a group of children were playing soccer - and killed at least 11 kids (several more are still in critical condition) and injured more than 30 others.  The soccer field was right next to a playground.  Almost all of the injured were kids between the ages of 10 and 20. One family lost four of their children in this attack.

Murdered Children of Majdal Shams

Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel in all kinds of ways - using rocket attacks, RPGs, drones and other weapons.  Israel has responded but in a relatively restrained way.  There have been several reasons for the restraint.  Israel has, of course, been concerned about opening an all out war with Hezbollah which has tens of thousands of Iranian-made rockets, and thousands of drones - ready to be fired at Israel.  The U.S. has been pressuring Israel to avoid escalation.  Israel has been trying to focus on the war with Hamas first.  And Israel and the U.S. have been trying to avoid an all out war with Iran (the main sponsor and supporter of Hezbollah), which could drag  in several other parties -  and spiral out of hand, throughout the region and other areas.

The residents of northern Israel, including the Druze and other communities, have all been clamouring for Israel to take decisive action in the north, even at the risk of further escalation.  Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from the north and are living in the centre of Israel and other areas.  Hundreds of homes have been destroyed as well as all kinds of other buildings, businesses, agricultural areas and other sites.  Yet, the Israeli government has kept the military action to a relatively restrained level even in the face of all of these attacks.  For Israel's northern residents, the situation is outrageous. They wonder what would happen if even one of these types of attacks targeted Tel-Aviv.  They feel that they have been treated as second class citizens and abandoned by the the government and the army.

But this massive and murderous attack on a large group of children is likely to be seen as the last straw by the Israeli government.  Hezbollah has tried to deny that they fired the rocket - but the Israeli military has identified the type of rocket and noted that only Hezbollah has this type of  ammunition. I don't know what would happen if Hezbollah were to issue an apology and state that the rocket missed its target and that they regret the loss of life. (Spoiler - highly unlikely). Perhaps that could lead to some type of negotiations. But so far, Hezbollah has doubled down and is warning Israel of even more attacks. Hezbollah is not the type of group to apologize and back down even after attacking a large group of children.

The Israeli war cabinet is meeting at 4 p.m. today (Israel time) and then there will be a larger cabinet meeting at 6 p.m.  I expect that the Israeli response will be significant though I have no idea, of course, exactly what targets they will attack in Lebanon and/or Syria (where Hezbollah also has a large number of bases).  It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will absorb the Israeli response without a major escalation - or whether this will quickly escalate.  Israelis are being told to get their shelters ready, to stock up on water and other provisions and to prepare for a major war. Canada and other countries are warning people to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. Hard to say how long the Beirut airport will be fully functional.

Israel at the Olympics

Israel has sent 88 delegates to the Paris Olympics, its second largest delegation ever.  The athletes have been subjected to all kinds of threats - including death threats, fake funeral notices and boos when competing.  There is extensive security - far more than at any other Olympic games - it seems - and we are hoping that all of the athletes will be safe.  The Israeli under-23 Men's' soccer team drew a difficult group - with three games to play against Mali, Paraguay and  Japan.  In the first game, Israel jumped out to a 1-0 lead but wound up in a 1-1 draw.  In the second game, played last night, Israel fell behind  twice but came back to tie the score.  The Israeli side was heavily outplayed by Paraguay but managed to keep the game close until the end.  However, over the last few minutes, Paraguay scored twice and went on to win the match 4-2.  Even if Israel were to beat Japan in a major surprise on Tuesday night, it appears that the Israeli soccer team will be leaving the tournament without advancing.  This is only Israel's third appearance at the Olympic soccer tournament in its history, so just being in the tournament has been a major accomplishment.  But the Israeli side was hoping for better results. Israel has some very accomplished athletes competing in judo, swimming, sailing and other sports and we hope that Israel will be able to bring home some medals.

Netanyahu Visits the U.S.

I am  not going to write extensively about Prime Minister Netanyahu's trip to the U.S. or his speech in Congress. There is no shortage of criticism on the Israeli side - that the Prime Minister's timing was suspect and he did not really delivery any accomplishments from this trip.  Some Israelis were hoping that he would use the trip to negotiate and/or announce some kind of deal to bring home the hostages but this was not on the agenda.  Netanyahu flew to the U.S on the newly commissioned "Wing  of Zion" plane that he had ordered a few governments ago.  In the intervening period, Prime Ministers Lapid and Bennett had cancelled the plane order, arguing that it was an unnecessary and excessive expense.  But Netanyahu, travelling in the middle of a war, happily circulated photos of himself and his wife Sara, sitting comfortably at a desk on the plane, all smiles, with a hat next to the Prime Minister saying "Total Victory" in English. This was the first official flight for this plane - a project of Netanyahu's.

While in the U.S., Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to have some fairly uncomfortable meetings with President Biden and Vice-President Harris.  He thanked Biden for his 50 years of support of Israel.  Of course Biden seems very fragile right now and, unfortunately, it is not clear that he was all there to accept these compliments.  Vice President Harris took a different approach. She greeted Netanyahu in a much more "down to business" manner and told him that they had lots to talk about.  She then held a press-conference after the meeting, without Netanyahu, and gave a unilateral statement.  On the one hand, support for Israel does not mean blind support for Netanyahu and his policies.  I can certainly accept that.  On the other hand, the tone was somewhat condescending, sharp and somewhat reminiscent of President Obama's dealings with Israel towards the end of his Presidency.

It may well be that Harris is trying to demonstrate daylight between her policies and Netanyahu's, to shore up her base.  This may be an adroit political move for her in some states.  On the other hand, it may provide fodder for centrists in other states - who may become alarmed that Harris will move the needle too far to the left on Israel issues.  To be more specific, it might help her in Michigan but hurt her in Pennsylvania. There are probably other examples.

Netanyahu's meeting with Trump, of course, was quite different. The greetings did not appear to be super warm - but there was certainly a great deal of political maneuvering both ways.  Trump announced that he couldn't imagine how any Jewish American could vote for Harris in light of her Israel policies.  Netanyahu's plan seems to have been to visit Trump and try to bolster Trump with his implicit, if not explicit, support.  However, this plan took shape before President Biden announced his decision not to run - and before Harris began to close the gap in U.S. polling numbers.  

If the gap starts to decrease further - and if Harris wins the election - Netanyahu may well be in for a very rocky relationship with Harris, perhaps even rockier than his relationship with Obama.  (Assuming that Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister by the time of the election).  At the same time, notwithstanding the support the Trump is receiving from the observant Jewish community - there is no guarantee that Trump's policies will be particularly supportive of Israel.  Trump is very unstable and prone to change his mind about any given policies at any time. If Trump damages the democratic nature of the U.S. (he has already promised to "rip up the Constitution" and this past week told a group of Christian voters that "after they vote in this election, they wouldn't need to worry about voting again."), this will certainly harm Israel and its perceived legitimacy in the long run.  It is in Israel's long term interests that the U.S. continue to be a vibrant, liberal democracy - and that Israel continue to be one as well.  Both Netanyahu and Trump would prefer to take control of their respective supreme courts, have all charges against them thrown out and advance laws and policies that allow themselves to govern unhindered.  Sorry to get too political here - and many of you may disagree with me - but I am trying to blend a variety of voices that I hear speaking in Israel, from both sides - and give a sense of what the Israeli public is thinking.  I think there is quite a split.  Supporters of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and their parties are clearly rooting for and supporting Trump. Many Israelis in the centre and left have very different views. A significant number of Israelis, according to recent polls, thought Biden was a good friend of  Israel's and was very supportive and empathetic towards Israel, though the most recent polls show that Jewish Israelis, overall, have a preference for Trump - by about 48 to 35% according to one recent Jerusalem Post poll. 

Brain Eating Amoeba in the Kinneret

Here is something totally different.  A swimmer in his 20s died last week - as a result of a brain eating amoeba attacking him in the Sea of Galilea - the Kinneret.  This has now, of course, put the fear of God into swimmers in Israel's only freshwater lake.  As if the possibility of a missile attack in the area wasn't bad enough - we now have brain eating amoebae.  Fortunately, only one other case has been discovered - and the victim seems to have survived.  I have no idea what steps the government or health authorities can take to ensure the safety of this lake - but many Israelis are now thinking twice about cooling off in the Kinneret during these prime time swimming conditions. Even some of my family members, who were up near the Kinneret and are not scared of anything (having been through military service) decided not to go into the water (or so they tell us).

Kosher Cell Phone Bills

This is not an April fool's joke.  It is July.  The Israeli Knesset is scheduled to complete its sitting today and go on a break until after Simchat Torah - i.e. until the end of October.  So the governing coalition has been  scrambling to try and pass a range of bills intended to placate Netanyahu's coalition partners.  One of the bills that was passed into law last week - is in this category.  The bill passed was called the Kosher cellphone bill.  It included the creation of a Cellphone Kashrut Committee to oversee the issuance and control of kosher cell phones.  What are "kosher cellphones"?  They are cellphones used by some ultra-orthodox Israelis that do not have internet access and can only be used for phone calls and text messages.  God forbid the ultra-orthodox should carry a device that would allow them to view inappropriate pictures or videos on their cell phones.  They might even see Israeli Knesset members speaking (including some women) or, even worse - they might be tempted to watch videos of women singing.  So the Israeli Knesset has officially handed over control over a large bloc of phone numbers that will be designated as available for "kosher  phones only."  This will prevent wayward Haredim from secretly switching their phones to a smart phone.  Instead they will have to duck into a different store in Tel-Aviv (or elsewhere in Israel) and simply buy a second phone with a new number that they can keep in a an inside suit pocket (which is what most of them apparently do anyways).  Ultimately, this bill is a money making bill for a group of rabbis who will have economic control over a large number of phone numbers.  I am not sure whether, for example, these certified "Kosher" phones will require a special Passover certification - which could mean an additional hefty fee.  In the midst of an ongoing war, a hostage crisis, huge challenges in the north and all over the country, this is evidently a matter of prime urgency for the current government.  As they say in Israel - this is a sign that someone is "disconnected."  I might add that there were plans to try and pass other bills by tonight - including the "Rabbi corruption bill" (as it has been referred to pejoratively) and some other bills that Simcha Rotman has been trying to pass as part of his judicial revolution.  Some of these bills may now be delayed as a result of the security situation with Lebanon.

Canadian Passport Holder Attempts Knife Attack - Shot and Killed by Israeli Forces

As you might have read, a Canadian passport holder, Qawarshi Zakaria Adam, showed up at the Israeli town of Netiv HaAsara not far from the Gaza border.  He had apparently arrived at the Tel-Aviv airport using a Canadian passport, rented a car and headed south.  When he arrived at Netiv HaAsara, he got out of his car with a knife and moved towards some members of the community's rapid response team - saying "you're murdering people in Gaza.."  As he got closer, he was shot and killed by the security personnel.  There is a video of the incident. I saw a range of different captions for the incident - including some of the Canadian media that are happy to  turn this type of incident on its head and somehow accuse the Israelis of doing something nefarious. For the benefit of those considering similar actions, I would strongly suggest that brandishing a knife and threatening Israeli police or other military personnel - in the midst of a war zone - is not a recommended course of action - it is not likely to end well.

I was planning to write about a recent trip that we took to the Clos de Gat winery, which was quite an exceptional  experience. But I am going to save that for another blog.  

Let's hope that a major regional war and crisis will be averted and that this whole war will end soon - with the return of the hostages, an enforceable agreement in the north and some type of stable  agreement that brings many years of peace.  I am not particularly hopeful at this point, but we can always hope.

Wishing everyone the best of health.

Israeli Military Response in Yemen, Olympics and Other Updates July 2024

It is not often that I write blogs so closely together but sometimes there are so many things going on that I feel the urge to put together a few in a row in rapid succession.  This often happens just before or during Israeli elections or when there are some very unusual, challenging or different events taking place.  So whether or not you managed to read my blog from Friday July 19, 2024, I have put this one together to cover 6 or 7 items that I wanted to write about.  In a way, this might be viewed as an extension of the last blog but, quite simply, there are so many things going on here that I felt I just had to put this one together.  Of course it helps that today is Sunday - and I do not really have to work too hard on my normal business today (which is looking quite hectic for the coming week, thankfully).  So here goes - I have divided it into a bunch of headings and I hope you will find it interesting.

1. The Israeli Counter-Attack on Yemen

As you probably read, Israel launched a counter attack against the Houthis in Yemen yesterday.  Israel attacked the port town of Hodeidah, Yemen, which is apparently used as one of the main supply areas for the delivery of weapons from Iran to the Houthi forces.  Interestingly, Hodeidah had a large Jewish population at one time, with members of the Jewish community very active in trade, commerce, crafts and other artisanal efforts.  As with most of the rest of the Yemenite Jewish community, the Jews of Hodeidah left Yemen as part of Operation Magic Carpet in 1948-49 and immigrated to Israel.  

The targets hit by Israeli forces included oil fields and power stations.  Israel used fighter jets that flew on a 1700 km mission (each way) to carry out the counter attacks.  The attacks came after Yemen claimed responsibility for its drone attack against Tel-Aviv on Thursday night that killed one Israeli and injured 8 others.  Since October 7, 2024, the Houthis of Yemen have also been launching numerous missile attacks against Eilat and other parts of Israel, attacking Israeli ships and other ships bound for Israel - and taking other hostile actions against Israel.  The Houthis are armed, trained and supported by Iran and have been used as one of the proxies of Iran since October 7, 2023 to attack Israel without the attacks coming directly from Iran other than on one occasion.  The Houthis have reported that 3 people were killed and many others injured in these Israeli counterattacks.

The Houthis, the Iranians and various other groups are now vowing further attacks against Israel in response to this counterattack - so it seems reasonably likely that things will continue to escalate between Israel and Yemen and sooner or later between Israel and Iran - which is the main source and force behind just about all of the fronts that Israel is currently facing in the current war.

I just saw an interview with a Tel Aviv resident who was asleep on his balcony one building over from the drone attack in Tel-Aviv.  Debris from the drone crashed  through his makeshift roof and destroyed one of the two sofas he had on the balcony.  He was sleeping on a sofa that was connected to the other sofa that was destroyed.  He was in remarkably good spirits for someone who had been just a few feet away from likely death.  When asked about this, he said "I am especially thankful that the debris didn't destroy my barbecue.  That would have been a real disaster."  

I don't mean to make light of the situation.  One person was killed by this drone attack and 8 others were injured.  But sometimes, a sense of humour is the way people deal with very stressful situations.

2. The Olympics

As you know the Olympic games open this week - on Friday.  Some events start before the official opening. The Israeli men's soccer team will be playing its opening game against Mali on Wednesday.  That is very exciting since it is only the second time  in Israel's history that its soccer team has qualified and will be participating in the Olympic games.  In the first round, Israel will also play Paraguay and Japan.  They will need to come up with some major upsets to get out of this group and advance to the next round.

But the big story in Israel - is the security concerns.  Israeli athletes in a wide range of sports have been receiving death threats, mock funeral notices and subjected to all kinds of other intimidation tactics.  

The athletes all seem resolved to press ahead, represent Israel and put their trust in the security arrangements that are being made to protect them.  But these threats are very frightening and I can imagine that it must be quite difficult to have that additional layer of worry - while preparing for the biggest sports challenge of one's life.

3. Adidas

In a related note, as you might have read, Adidas chose this occasion to roll out a new advertising campaign for a retro shoe - its 1972 version of one of its sneakers.  Hmm.... Adidas chose to use Bella Hadid for its advertising campaign.  Hadid has been a fierce defender of Palestinians and Hamas since the October 7, 2023 attacks.  And as you might recall, 1972 is the year in which Palestinian terrorists attacked Israeli athletes and murdered 11 athletes and coaches.  So when you string all of this together, this was quite obviously a pro-terrorism, anti-Israel campaign by Adidas to commemorate, in a positive way, the massacre of Israeli athletes.  Completely disgusting.  After receiving all kinds of complaints (Not only from Israelis and Jews), Adidas has apparently "suspended" this offensive campaign.  Adidas has claimed that it "didn't make the connection..."  I will leave it to intelligent readers to draw their own conclusions.

4. Ultra-Religious Enlistment    

As you might recall, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that Israeli Haredim (ultra-religious) are no longer entitled to an exemption from the army and must now be recruited like everyone else.  Apparently, today is the first day that thousands of ultra-religious 18 year-olds began receiving conscription orders.  It remains to  be seen whether they will actually report for duty and if so, how many, but there is a sense that the landscape on this issue is starting to change. We may soon seen large numbers of Haredim in the Israeli army.

5. Prime Minister Netanyahu

Prime Minister Netanyahu is planning to fly to the U.S. this week and address a joint session of Congress. He is also supposed to meet with President Biden and apparently he will also meet with former President Trump.  The meeting with Biden is contingent of course on whether Biden is healthy enough to meet Netanyahu and whether Netanyahu can be assured that Biden is no longer contagious. Netanyahu is not particularly interested in picking up a case of Covid - even though thousands of Israeli soldiers are risking their lives as we speak in much more dangerous ways.

Netanyahu is, of course, looking to bolster U.S. assistance in the war with Gaza as well as all of the other fronts that Israel is currently facing - including Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Syrians, the Iranians, the Iraqis and other potential threats.  Netanyahu is certainly looking for assurances that the U.S. will continue to supply much needed weaponry as well as diplomatic support.

For the U.S., the current administration is quite interested in bringing the war to an end and is likely to push Netanyahu to agree to a deal.  Apparently, the parties are fairly close to a deal though there are a number of issues that have not yet been resolved.  One issue relates to the Gaza-Egypt border - and what assurances will be in place to keep Hamas from being resupplied with weapons through this border.  Israel would like to retain some level of control over that border which it now controls.

A second concern is that Hamas has been insisting on the right to send armed forces to reestablish control over northern Gaza.  Israel has not been prepared to agree to this condition, which would lead to further hostilities very shortly.

There is some concern that Netanyahu will be using the trip to try to pressure Biden and campaign implicitly (if not explicitly) for Trump, just as he did while Obama was President. It is a calculated gamble by Netanyahu since there is always the possibility that things could turn around for the Democrats and he will have alienated an administration that he would have to work with.  Moreover, it is not even clear that Trump will be as supportive as expected, if Trump does win.  J.D. Vance has espoused some very isolationist views and is certainly unclear that Trump will be as great for Israel as many assume.

Finally, it hasn't escaped anyone in Israel's attention that Prime Minister Netanyahu's son, Yair, will be celebrating his 33rd birthday on Friday July 26, 2024.  Netanyahu will of course stick around after speaking at Congress to help his son celebrate.  It is unclear what form the celebrations will take or whether they will be paid for by the State of Israel. No one seems to know what Yair is even doing in the U.S. but he has requested a diplomatic passport and full 24 hour security detail.  I'm not about to speculate on what Yair has been up to - (other than sending out obnoxious twitter feeds) but I know that his father really enjoys fine wines, Cuban cigars and high end meals.  So it will probably be a pretty nice celebration, wherever it takes place.

6. Flying to Israel

As you may have seen, Air Canada announced that it would now cancel all flights through November 2024 at least between Canada and Tel-Aviv.  El Al stopped flying directly a while ago.  So if you are planning a trip between Toronto and Tel-Aviv, you can either fly through the US and connect with one of the El Al routes - or you can travel through Europe.  El Al flights are generally heavily booked and very expensive.

For my next flight, I am planning to fly Aegean via Greece and the pick up an Air Canada flight.  We will see how that goes.  I haven't tried that route yet.

That's all for now.  As usual, hoping for a deal that leads to the safe return of all of our hostages, the safety of our soldiers, some type of lasting peace deal for the whole region - and best of health for everyone otherwise.

Iranian UAV Strike on Tel-Aviv July 2024 and Other Updates

I have put together another blog with a few updates and a variety of issues - since there are so many different things going on here. This is really just a limited snapshot of a few things I wanted to highlight - so I hope you find it interesting and informative.

UAV Attack on Israel

Tel-Aviv was hit today by an Iranian UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), which was launched by the Houthis (a proxy of Iran, operating out of Yemen).  Apparently, at least 5 of these UAVs were launched from Yemen and four of them were shot down by the Americans, from somewhere off the coast of Yemen.  The Israeli military claims that it was tracking the UAV but decided not to shoot it down.  It is hard to understand why this gross miscalculation occurred but the the bottom line is that the military failed to shoot down the threat.

The UAV crashed into an apartment building in Tel-Aviv, just two blocks from two of our immediate family members.  This was around 3:30 a.m.  One person was killed and 8 others were injured, all civilians.  Within a short period of time, as slew of ambulances arrived to care for the injured.  Thankfully, none of our family members were injured though we are obviously deeply concerned about the loss of life of the one victim and hopeful for the speedy recovery of the other eight. 

A military spokesman for the Houthis announced that this attack was "in sympathy with the Palestinians of Gaza" and promised that further attacks would be carried out.  Although Israel is technically in a state of war with Yemen and has no peace treaty with that country - Israel has never previously been engaged in any kind of direct hostilities with Yemen (or with Iran for that matter) prior to October 7, 2023.

This is a crazy situation and it is unclear how Israel will respond. It is obviously completely untenable for the security of Israel to sit back and absorb lethal attacks like this from Yemen without responding.  

The War

As you  probably know, the war in Gaza and the war with Hezbollah in the north both continue to rage on.  There is some sense that the Israeli army is operating in Gaza at a greatly reduced capacity - though there is still a great deal of fighting still taking place in several areas.  Last week, Israel carried a targeted assassination attempt on the life of Mohamed Deif, who is or was one of Hamas' top military commanders - and one of the masterminds behind the October 7, 2023 massacre.  Deif was surrounded by several Hamas military personnel and other top Hamas commanders.  There has been no official confirmation by Hamas or by the Israeli army that Deif was killed but the top commander with whom he was meeting was identified by Hamas has having been among those killed.

Israeli reports have indicated that  somewhere in the range of 15,000 to 18,000 Hamas military personnel have been killed in the fighting since October 7, 2023 - with estimates of the Hamas forces in Gaza running up to 40,000 or so.  Many others have been injured or taken into custody.  

Although the Hamas military has suffered a significant blow, the Hamas leader, Yehiah Sinwar, still seems to view this whole war as a victory for Hamas.  Hamas has managed to tilt the public and political opinion in several countries towards the Palestinians - some of whom have even decided to declare recognition of a "Palestinian State" (without any defined borders).  Sinwar has stated that he would be willing to sacrifice the lives of several hundred thousand Palestinians to achieve his long term goals (presumably as long as he and his family members are not among those being "sacrificed.").

While there are apparently ongoing talks to try and reach some sort of agreement to free the 120 Israeli hostages that Hamas is holding in Gaza and reach some sort of cease fire, there is no reason to believe at this point that a deal is imminent.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's government relies on the support of the far right parties, led by Itamir Ben-Gvir, Betzalel Smotrich and others, all of whom have stated that they will not accept this type of deal.  They are looking for a complete surrender by Hamas - and they compare this to the deal the Allies were seeking when fighting the Nazis in World War II.  Essentially, they are less interested in trying to save the lives of whichever hostages are still alive (possibly 30-60, according to some reports) and more interested in trying to achieve a "complete victory."

There are many in Israel challenging this perspective, including past and current heads of the Mossad, various high ranking military personnel, and a wide range of politicians - even some on the "right."  They are concerned that this "complete victory" may not be achievable, that all of the lives of the hostages will be lost and that there is no plan for what comes next, even if this type of victory can be achieved.

The long and the short of it is that Netanyahu does not seem to be in any hurry to end this war - and certainly not on the terms that have thus far been proposed.  Or at least, he does not seem willing to abandon his coalition partners to agree to a proposal of the type that is currently on the table.

In my view, this is not something that is easy to navigate.  It is clearly in Israel's best interests to do everything possible to save as many of the lives of the hostages as possible.  This has always been an expectation of every Israeli government - and is like a contract with the citizens of Israel.  If there is a deal that can be made that will save a large number of lives - that must be an urgent priority for Israel.

The flip side is that if the deal that is envisioned would allow Hamas to resume importing weapons, underground, from Egypt, Israel will simply face the same types of attacks weeks or months later.  There needs to be a second track that is dedicated to figuring out how Gaza can be run or administered in a way that will not present an ongoing threat to Israel - and which entity will be responsible for that administration.  I am not even sure that there is an appetite for this on the Gaza side of the border - but the status quo is obviously untenable.

The war in the north has also been raging on with daily hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.  Hezbollah has continued to launch all sorts of attacks against cities and towns in the Israeli north and many have been lethal.  Homes and institutions have been destroyed throughout the north and more than 100,000 Israelis are currently displaced from their homes and living in make-do arrangements in different parts of Israel.  Aside from the human cost - in terms of civilians and military personnel who have been killed and injured in the north, the economic damage has also been massive.  For example, many of the wineries in the north have suffered massive damage.  This week a sizeable percentage of the Pelter vineyards were set aflame and destroyed.  Many other wineries have suffered massive damage.  That is just one example of an industry that has paid an enormous price for this war.

Yet the Israeli military response to all of this in the north has been relatively restrained. Israel has stated repeatedly that it is trying to finish the Gaza war first but this has led to a horrible situation for Israel's northern residents who are feeling abandoned.  In this regard, even many of Netanyahu's critics on the left have called for a much greater response from Israel towards Hezbollah, even at the risk of escalation with Iran.  Some have speculated that the U.S. has dictated this policy - to avoid a direct and massive confrontation with Iran - but that is unclear.  For its part, Hezbollah has stated that if an agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel - it will cease its attacks against Israel.  From Israel's perspective, that will only be good  enough if Hezbollah withdraws its forces from the border and agrees to abide by previous cease fire agreements which have required Hezbollah to adhere to a demilitarized zone within a defined area of Lebanon.

The ICJ

Amidst all of this, Israeli TV broadcast some of the proceedings of the ICJ - the International Court of Justice - attacking Israel. Led by a Lebanese judge - the level of bias, irony and pure ridiculousness is, frankly outrageous.  It is in many ways even worse than watching a group of Trump-appointed judges on the U.S. Supreme Court rule that he is immune from most criminal prosecution.  But I digress. 

I won't dignify the ICJ further by spending more time on it - but the whole situation in Israel since October 7, 2023  has demonstrated the incredible double standard and bias to which Israel is subjected on the world stage.  Much of that is attributable to the fact that there are some two billion Muslims in the world and only about 13 million Jews.  But you can be sure that if any other country were subjected to the type of massacre that Hamas carried out in Israel, the type of response would be virtually unlimited.

Imagine, for example, what the U.S. would have done, if 9/11 had killed ten times as many people proportionately - and had resulted in the taking of hostages and  ongoing missile attacks against U.S. territory.  You can be sure that the U.S. would have taken every possible step to eliminate the threat completely. Of course if this type of attack were carried out against other UN luminaries, like  Russia, Iran, China or others, you can imagine what they would do.

Managing in Israel

Medical Issues and Getting an MRI

I have from time to time written about different issues relating to life in Israel.  Some people reading these sections might not be interested at all and some might be curious about how some of these things work in Israel.

As you may know, the Israeli medical system is a universal health care system, similar to the system in Canada but with some twists.  Unlike the Canadian system, Israelis can choose to pay more and see a doctor privately.  As well, instead of a monopoly system, like OHIP in Ontario, there are four or five competing HMOs and Israelis can choose which one they would like to have as their provider.  

The Israeli universal system includes dental coverage, a subsidized pharmaceutical program and  a range of other components.

I recently suffered a bit of leg injury and required urgent care.  The HMO that I use (Maccabi) runs a fractures and urgent care clinic and urges you to attend that clinic for non-life threatening injuries.  If you go to the emergency section of a hospital and you are not actually hospitalized, you can face a "co-pay" of approximately $500 Cdn.

The urgent care clinic conducts x-rays on site but not ultrasounds or MRIs.  So I was able to have an x-ray taken relatively quickly with the good news that nothing was broken.  However, the treating physician recommended an ultra-sound.

Booking this is somewhat centralized - so we were able to phone a few times and find a cancelled appointment opening in Jerusalem the next day (about an hour's drive).  After that, we were assured that the radiologist would provide a report within a  week or so, which was exactly the time it took.

We were lucky enough to have a connection to an orthopedic doctor - which can normally take several weeks to see, if not longer, like in Ontario (unless you want to pay privately).  We were willing to visit late at night and wait two hours in a reception room to see the doctor.

In the meantime, we received the report and the report included a recommendation to book an MRI.  This can take several months to book, unless you can find a cancellation.  But there is a process that is available - which we followed.  You get the approval form from the HMO and then send an email to each hospital's MRI department individually and request an appointment.  We sent out 14 such requests by email  - and - ta-da - managed to get an MRI scheduled for the next day at 1 a.m.  We were told that it could take up to 3 weeks to get a radiologist's report and we are still waiting - but it does seem that if you are willing to travel and flexible on timing - you can get an MRI scheduled reasonably quickly in Israel.  (If you want to pay privately, you can apparently pay about $1,200 USD - which is another option).

Identity Cards And Driver's License Renewals

My driver's licence was due to expire next month.  For renewal of a licence in Israel, the process was ridiculously easy.  You simply go online, pay the fee - and they use their existing file photo of you to renew the licence for a ten year period.  Perhaps on the downside, it was not necessary to do a vision test, a health test or any other kind of check. I'm not complaining - since my new licence is on the way - but it was even easier than renewing a licence in Ontario which is really not that bad. And it was about $200 Cdn for a 10 year renewal.

Renewing a vehicle permit is much more rigorous.  You have take your car to a testing centre, each year, and have it pass a test in order to renew the permit.  This is a full test of all aspects of the vehicle - brakes, lighting, steering, exhaust, you name it.  The line-up at these testing centres can be quite long.  Our car apparently had a lighting problem - where the front headlights were  insufficiently intense.  We were told that there was a "recall" on our vehicle for this problem and the dealership should fix the problem for free - even though we had just recently gone for full service at the dealership.  So we went back to the dealership - and after some back and forth - they finally agreed to change the lighting  as part of the recall.  Then we had to go back to the testing centre - and wait in a  line again (a slightly shorter line for follow-up visits) and get retested.  But it all worked out.  Overall, much more time-consuming than renewing a licence - but this probably explains why all of the cars on the road in Israel are in such great shape....(If you are not laughing, you are overdue for a visit here).

Israelis also have to have and carry around a "National Identity Card" which serves as a combination of an SSN/SIN and/or a photo ID that can be used instead of a drivers' licence.  You would not normally think that this was not something that would expire - but I was advised that Israel is moving to a fully biometric system and that my current ID would expire in January 2025.  If I didn't renew mine - I would be left without an identity....

So I went online to find a date to book an appointment and found a date in mid-September.  But of course there are new cancellation dates released every day as long as you are flexible.  So we found an appointment the next day and drove up to Hadera (about 45 minutes north) for an early morning meeting.  I had my old ID card - which is a photo ID - but that is apparently not enough for the clerks.  I also needed to answer a whole pile of questions -  my parents' first names, my wife's parents' names, my kids names, the date of  my anniversary, the year we arrived in Israel - and a few others.  I managed to pass (turns out that I really was who I said I was....) - and then posed for a new photo and was assured that my new identity card would be in the mail within three weeks or so.  Obviously not nearly as efficient as renewing a licence but perhaps the ID card is even more important in Israeli society.  Of course I am comforted in knowing that I will not lose my identity.

I probably have several other anecdotes that you might find amusing - but I have to save some material for future blogs.

For now, as with my past blogs, I am continuing to hope for  the safe return of all of our hostages, the safety of all of our military and other security personnel, an end to this war with some type of viable solution in place for long term peace  and my general best wishes for health and safety for all of us.  Shabbat Shalom.

July 2024 Israel Update

We are into the summer months - where it is, of course, very hot here in Israel.  It has been 9 months since Hamas launched its massive terrorist operation and massacre in Israel - and the war is still continuing on several fronts.  So, in my normal blog style, I am writing a few comments about how  things are seen here, where things might be headed - and some other remarks that come to mind.  I'll add in a bit of sports and other comments for fun.

The War

I think in wartime, it is very hard to get any really accurate news.  So my comments are really limited to what I gather from a variety of sources including Israeli news (Ynet Hebrew, the Jerusalem Post, the Times of Israel, Haaretz, Channels 11, 12 and 13 (we don't watch Israeli channel 14 - which is like Fox news but but with less truth and even more extremism).  I also try to read articles in the New York Times, CNN, the Canadian newspapers - and sometimes, for a totally different perspective (though not that often) Al Jazeera.

The war with Hamas in Gaza is continuing on.  Some reports seem to be indicating that the Israeli army is close to determining that it has defeated most of the Hamas armed brigades and that it can only continue with small scale operations.  At the same time, there are still somewhere in the range  of 120 hostages in Gaza, though we do not not how many are still alive - and the main leaders of Hamas including Yihyeh Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh are still alive. I believe that the army planned to conclude this operation in a much shorter time period.  

Things have been slow partially because Israeli has gone out of its way to minimize civilian casualties and partially because the army has also made efforts to minimize Israeli military casualties.  On the Israeli side, 679 soldiers have been killed since October 7, 2023, of whom 323 have been killed in fighting since October 27, 2023.  The official Israeli government site lists a further 4,000 soldiers as having been wounded.

According to Hamas sources, estimates of Palestinians killed are in the range of 35,000.  However, that does not differentiate between civilians and fighters.  Israel had estimated that Hamas had about 30,000 fighters divided into 5 divisions before October 7, 2023.  Israeli military reports indicate that quite a large number of these fighters have been killed or wounded in fighting.  Many others have been captured.  Some Israeli reports had put the percentages at 50-60% of the Palestinian  casualties.  We also know that Hamas tends to exaggerate its numbers.  So there is a strong likelihood that the number of military casualties on the Palestinian side is in the the range of 15,000-20,000, perhaps even more - and the total number of civilian casualties in closer to the range of 10,000.  We do not know the exact numbers but the Israeli troops are not out there fighting and killing civilians.  They are fighting armed military units and it is very likely that this would account for most of the casualties on the Palestinian side.

The point is that the allegations of "genocide" being thrown around against Israel are clearly ridiculous by any sane definition or measure.  It actually degrades the meaning of the word "genocide" to try and suggest that Israel's war against Gaza - falls into the category of situations around the world where civilians are massacred en masse, deliberately - or to even begin to compare this situation to Nazi Germany and the Holocaust or to the slaughter of Armenians by the Turks, the Rwandan genocide or other such atrocities.

There are many reports that suggest that a deal to end the Gaza war is being negotiated but I am not holding my breath at this point, for several reasons.

First of all, at this point, Hamas is looking for a deal where they will return about 22 live hostages (out of about 120) and still stay in power.  Although much of Gaza will have been devasted, Hamas will sell that as a big "win" and will try to rebuild its forces, restock its ammunition and get ready for another round.  This would be a major defeat for Israel - and would leave us with another ticking time bomb.  

It is unclear that Netanyahu is even interested in this type of deal, even though the U.S. is pushing for it, and it is unclear that he can muster political support for it.  Many Israelis, even those who do not support Netanyahu would like to see  a more decisive defeat of Hamas which seems attainable, according to Israeli military sources.  

At the same time, Hamas does not seem that eager for a deal either.  They figure that they have picked up major international support for this war - especially from the despicable leadership of countries like Ireland, Spain and Norway - and they do not really care about civilian casualties.  They would prefer to be able to consolidate power, rebuild and restock and argue that they could not be defeated by Israel - even if that means thousands of additional Palestinian casualties.

Concurrently, Israel is fighting an active war with Hezbollah up north, Iran's proxy forces.   Every day, Israel has been subjected to barrages of rocket attacks, missile attacks and rpgs.  Thousands of Israelis have evacuated their homes and the border towns are all ghost towns - other than military personnel.  Soldiers and civilians are being killed - and shockingly, Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu, previously self-described as "Mr. Security" has done very little to counter all of this.

Many in Israel are calling for a major war in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah and try to move the Hezbollah forces out of the border area in Lebanon.  It is hard to say what will happen but this seems very likely.  There is a possibility that some kind of deal with Hamas will also bring about a deal with Hezbollah.  But a Hezbollah deal seem even less likely than a Hamas deal since Israel would need guarantees that the Hezbollah forces would move back from the border and refrain from attacking Israel. There is such a deal in place from 2016 but Hezbollah has simply refused to honour it.  Any such deal would need enforcement provisions, "teeth" and perhaps real international guarantors.  I suppose anything can happen, but it seems that a major war with Lebanon is more likely than a deal of this type.

Of course the other major threat is an all out war with Iran.  Israeli historian Benny Morris (who at one time was a far left historian and then later moved to the right) has called for Israel to launch an all out war against Iran as the only way of defeating the threat from Hezbollah, Hamas and other enemies and to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat against Israel.  While there is some logic to this given that this whole war has been a proxy war with Iran, I hardly think that Israel, with its 10 million people - is in a position to start launching all out wars on the whole middle east with hundreds of millions of enemies. 

Perhaps Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will win the U.S. election - and will actively support an all out war against Iran.  Or at least the threat of one.  I'm not sure what to say about this - other than it would really throw the whole region into something massive and unpredictable.  As if things are not already difficult enough here. Contrary to Netanyahu's expectations, even if Trump wins, I think it is far from predictable that Trump would support the kinds of activities that Netanyahu has in mind.  

Ultimately the difficulty we have in Israel is that we have a leader, Netanyahu, whose decisions are necessarily coloured by his own political and legal predicament.  If the war ends, his coalition might fall.  His trial might continue.  A national inquiry might be launched.   He could face all kinds of personal and political challenges - that he views as worse than continuing the war.  He could even face new and additional criminal charges.  Yes, this is a cynical view but it is compelling.

Under Netanyahu, who was supposed to provide security, deterrence and a strong military, Israel has never been weaker, even though he has his dream "fully right wing" coalition in place.  The war with Hamas has taken much longer than expected, the hostages have not been released, the leaders of Hamas are still in place and a large number of soldiers have been killed or injured.  

In the north, thousands of Israelis are still displaced, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel at will, and Israel has done very little to respond.  The economy in Israel has faced all kinds of challenges - and relatively few airlines are flying here.  There is simply no way to assess this situation as favourable for Netanyahu unless one is completely blinded by support for him and his party.

Other Israeli Politics

Despite all of the above, Netanyahu's coalition can stay in power until October 2026 unless one of the parties leaves the coalition.  Two of the parties are ultra-orthodox and would have nowhere to go politically.  One of the parties is made up of far-right extremists and they would also have nowhere else to go politically.  So as long as things don't change  dramatically, his government is fairly "safe" for now, contrary to whatever his political opponents or other  commentators might say.

The one potential way that the government could collapse is if his own party collapses internally.  This possibility has been increasing but is still relatively low.

Just to review a few possible issues - Netanyahu's coalition partners have demanded a few things and some members of his own party - have been reluctant to support them.

One major demand of the ultra-orthodox is a blanket military exemption for all "ultra-orthodox" males up to the age of 25.  There were different proposed pieces of legislation in place - and the Israeli supreme Court had issued an ultimatum that this needed to be addressed by June 1, 2024.  When the date came and went and there was still no legislation, the Supreme Court ordered the conscription of the ultra-orthodox.

As a result, the ultra-orthodox have been demanding that the coalition pass a bill to protect them from this Supreme Court decision. (Referred to by opponents as the "Draft Evasion Bill").  Netanyahu is willing to do so. After all, he will do anything to stay in power, seemingly.  But there are more and more rumblings in his party - Likud members who have begun to come out and say that they will not support  this type of bill.  This could lead to a no-confidence motion or it could lead to Netanyahu withdrawing the bill -  and the ultra-orthodox might decide to pull the plug. All in all, I think the latter option is unlikely since any deal they might get would be worse after an election and they know that.

I have to point out that, at the same time, the IDF has indicated that it needs more recruits in the short and long term.  The ultra-orthodox answer is to extend the service time for  existing conscripts and reserve soldiers.  This type of bill has been floated.  But once again - there is quite a bit of resistance to this from other Likud MKs in the governing coalition.

The ultra-orthodox have also been trying to pass another bill - to provide for the centralized hiring of some 600 ultra-orthodox rabbis by the State and to give them the authority to take over religious control of towns and cities across Israel.  This bill has been referred to by opponents as the "Rabbi corruption law."  Once again, a number of Likud members have come forward and stated that they will not support this bill.  So this is another potential area where things could explode.

The far right coalition members have different ideas. They would like annex the west bank, build settlements in Gaza, continue the war - and generally avoid any kind of deal with the Palestinians.  They are threatening to bolt the government if Netanyahu actually reaches a deal with Hamas.  A deal could be saved by the support of other non-coalition Knesset members but this would cause the government to collapse.

Many Israelis listened attentively as the U.S. Supreme Court granted wide reaching immunity to President Trump for various alleged criminal conduct.  Before this whole war broke out with Hamas, Israel had been gripped in a national fight over proposed judicial reform by Netanyahu and his political partners.  The proposed reforms were intended, ultimately, to do exactly what Trump succeeded in doing in the U.S.  Stack the court with a bunch of right wing idealogues who would do whatever he wanted - and then grant  him wide ranging immunity from any criminal charges.  Netanyahu, like Trump, figured that this would be his "get of jail free" card.  So far, Netanyahu has not yet succeeded and the war has probably set him back quite a bit politically in his efforts to get this done.  Netanyahu is, however, looking enviously at Mr. Trump - who probably had quite the celebration  when the Supreme Court immunity decision  came out.

One more comment on Israeli politics.  The Labour Party and the Meretz Party have banded together to form one left wing bloc - though they still have to formally approve the merger.  The party is being led by Yair Golan.  Golan is a  former Israeli general who saved many Israelis on October 7, 2024 when he rushed into action and became a "one-man army" driving around, fighting Hamas terrorists and rescuing Israelis.  He is forceful, opinionated and resolute.  On the one hand, he is of course, a supporter of a strong IDF and not afraid to use IDF forces where appropriate.  On the other hand, he is very much in favour of finding a long term resolution with the Palestinians that is workable - and of protecting democracy in Israel from the threats of those that have been in power currently.  I am not thrilled that they have decided to call the party "the Democrats."  I would have suggested something more Israeli, with less baggage and less Americanized.  At the same time - I think they are likely to do quite well in a national election - and that much of their expected gains will come at the expense of Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.  But we may not know until 2026.

Sports

Israelis are huge soccer fans, as you know, so the big news here has been the FIFA Euro 2024 Soccer Tournament. Everyone is watching even though Israelis don't really have a horse in the race.  The games are on at a reasonable time and the soccer is at the highest level in the world (just about).  Once the Euro tournament is over, Israelis will look forward to watching the Israeli national team compete in the men's Olympic soccer tournament for only the second time in Israel's history. Israel will play Mali, Paraguay and Japan.  That should be very exciting. Maybe Israel can come up with a win  or two - and advance to the next round.

My preferred sport as you know is ice hockey.  I stayed up some very late nights to watch the Stanley Cup finals and cheer for the only remaining Canadian team. It was a tough loss for the Edmonton Oilers - but the fact that the Oilers were able to come back from a 3-0 deficit and get to a game 7 was really incredible.  

So with no more ice hockey, I have turned my attention to watching some of the "Coppa America" - the North/South America FIFA soccer tournament.   As you might know, the Canadian national team has advanced to the  semi-finals and will play Argentina on Tuesday night.  That is the furthest any Canadian team has ever advanced in a top level soccer tournament.  While it is expected that Canada will get pummeled by Argentina - anything can happen in one game.  Maybe Canada can pull out a big surprise and get to a final against the winner of Uruguay-Columbia.

I can't say that I have watched very much baseball as the Blue Jays have been atrocious and baseball does  not attract very much viewership at all here.  I'm still happy to go to a game or two when I am in Toronto - and to support the kosher food provider there - that expanded the menu this year.  But it is really more about spending time with friends, enjoying the weather etc., than watching the underperforming Jays play.

Other Comments - Worldwide Protests and Anti-Semitism

I couldn't let this blog conclude without a few other comments on this issue.  As you many know, pro-Hamas "encampments" have been put up all over the U.S. and Canada - and many other places around the world.  

In Toronto, a bunch of hoodlums - (let's not mince words - we can also use "terrorism supporters") invaded the University of Toronto and put up a tent encampment.   They set up their own "security forces" and  controlled entry to the area. They chanted antisemitic slogans, harassed students and others and occupied a chunk of U of T property.  And of course demanded that U of T "divest" from anything to do with Israel.  In what sane universe is this permissible?  U of T should have called in the police immediately, to remove and/or arrest all involved.  This should not  have been allowed to last even one day. I think the University of Alberta took the proper approach when it cleared out a similar encampment immediately. 

But instead, the encampment remained in place for approximately two months.  U of T went to court to get an injunction and the Ontario Superior Court issued a 61 page decision last week - ordering the protesters to dismantle the  encampment and leave  - which they did.  The decision was striking.  The Judge spent the majority of the decision making all kinds of unnecessary comments and  findings that had nothing to do with the real issues - and were simply bad precedents.  In the decision, Justice Koehnen of the Ontario Superior Court, bent over backwards to find that the actions of the protestors were not "antisemitic" or violent  and seems to even suggest that their demands were justified.  Thankfully, he also concluded that the University of Toronto had no legal obligation to negotiate with this band of thugs and that there is no legal right to simply build an encampment and take over a property that belongs to someone else.  From my perspective, this probably should have been a three page decision with those conclusions.

But Israel continues to face these kinds of challenges all around the world from Pro-Hamas/Pro-Palestinian demonstrators who are calling for the destruction of Israel.  Israeli PR efforts have fallen short (other than some major crusaders like Noa Tishby - who has been phenomenal).  This is partially attributable to the disarray of the current Israeli government and its inability to appoint or designate proper and  competent people to lead these efforts.

There are probably other things that I need to cover, but I will have to leave some topics for next time.  My plans to be back in Toronto  were delayed for a bit due to personal reasons but I am hoping to be back in mid-July.  Wishing everyone the best of health - and wishing for peaceful times for all of us, Israel and all of its neighbours (as well as other locations around the world), the release of all of our hostages and the safety of our soldiers.  We are thinking of all of the families of victims, casualties and losses since October 7, 2023 and hoping for better times.