War Update - 24th Day of War in Israel

We are in the 24th day of war - a war that was started by Hamas on October 7th, 2023, with a surprise attack on more than 20 communities near the Gaza border.  The Hamas terrorists murdered more than 1,400 Israelis - men, women, children, babies - in gruesome fashion. People were burned alive, cut into pieces, decapitated, tortured. The horrific stories are shocking. Much of it was captured on video by Hamas terrorists who were using their cell phones or Go Pro cameras to record what they were doing. In some cases, they took cell phones from victims - and recorded torture and murder scenes on the victim's cell phones - in several cases, posting these videos to Facebook live or other social media.

This was all accompanied by a "declaration of war" on Israel from Hamas,  which runs and controls the Gaza strip.

What would any country do in response?  Ask for a cease fire?  I don't think so.

As of now, Israel reports that more than 1,400 Israelis have been killed and more than 240 have been kidnapped and are being held in Gaza.  More than 4,600 Israelis have been injured.

Israel has responded in force to this declaration of war. It has called up more than 300,000 reserve soldiers, mobilized its army on its northern, eastern and southern borders and moved ahead with a military plan to defeat Hamas.  Initially, Israel used its air force to attack a range of targets.  It is now moving ahead with ground invasion of some sort.

I cannot dispute that this is a disaster for Gaza and its civilians.  And it is not the first such disaster.  Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, the Hamas regime has initiated 5 rounds of fighting prior to 2023.  These battles have seen Gaza fire rockets and missiles at Israeli  civilians, inviting Israel to respond with air attacks and other military manoeuvres.  Nothing has been gained by Hamas in any of  these attacks other than Hamas being able to terrorize its population into allowing Hamas to continue to maintain power in Gaza.  And of course growing the massive personal wealth of several Hamas leaders.

Meanwhile, the world has poured money into Gaza.  With all of that money, one might have thought that Gaza would build infrastructure, industry and other necessities and improve the standards of living for Gazans. Instead, the vast majority of the money was used to stockpile rockets, to build a vast underground network of tunnels and to amass other weapons, all while maintaining the poverty and squalid conditions for the residents of Gaza. At the same time, the Hamas leaders including Khaled Meshal, Dr. Musa Abu Marzook, Ismail Haniyeh and others have attained great personal wealth. 

This Hamas leadership is dedicated to nothing less than the destruction of Israeli.  It is not interested in a "two-state solution" or some other arrangement that results in peaceful coexistence. It runs Gaza with an iron fist and routinely executes suspected collaborators, political opponents, homosexuals and others.

That is the regime that has declared war on Israel. At this point, I would say that there seems to be near unanimity, even on the left, in Israel that this war must be fought until Hamas is destroyed or unconditionally surrenders.  

Contrary to the suggestions from many columnists in the New York Times, such as the column by Megan Stack on October 31, 2023, this is not about Israeli "revenge" or the random murder of civilians.  There is no way that Israel would agree to any kind of cease fire now without changing the current reality.  Not only would a cease fire mean more attacks from Hamas in weeks, months or some other time period, it would leave Israel in a state of constant and ongoing danger, in which civilians can be attacked  at any time.

At this point, I think Israel's war aims will include a number of key points.  For one thing, and near the  top of the list, Israel must insist on the return of all of the hostages held by Hamas - whether through military operations or negotiations.  Although there are apparently some ongoing discussions, to this point, only 2 hostages  have been released and one was freed by Israeli forces yesterday, in a daring but successful operation.  Her photo is included in this blog, above.

Secondly, Israel intends to destroy the vast majority of the underground tunnels - including the stockpiles of weaponry in these tunnels, the communication systems, the command centres and other facilities.  This will not be an easy task, especially since many of these tunnels are under mosques, hospitals and other civilian buildings.  For example, the largest Hamas command centres  are located at  or under the Shifa hospital, where more than 30,000 Hamas guerillas are apparently hiding.  One way or another, I don't see how this war will end until those command centres are completely destroyed.

Israel  also intends to capture, kill or otherwise neutralize most of the key Hamas leadership.  Some are living outside of Israel.  Their time will come later.  But for now, Israel will need to hunt down those terrorist leaders who are situated in Gaza.

So short of a lengthy war, is any type of cease fire possible? Well, if Hamas were to surrender unconditionally, the war would end.  This was the goal sought  (and obtained) by the allies in WWII.  Although the scale is much smaller, and I don't buy the propaganda lines that "Hamas are Nazis" - Hamas is nevertheless a terrorist organization, (like ISIS) intent on committing the worst type of atrocities.  Hamas must be destroyed and removed from the region.  Israel cannot end the war and continue to have a militarized Hamas on its doorstep.

I hope that the army has a proper plan that it can implement to attain these objectives.  I don't think Israel has too many other alternatives.  So this might be a lengthy war.

Worldwide Reaction

As you know, the worldwide reaction has been astonishing.   All kinds of people coming out of the woodwork arguing that the massacres and crimes perpetrated by Hamas were legitimate forms of resistance.  It is a sick world indeed if that is your  definition of legitimate resistance.

We are reminded that there are only about 15.3 million Jews in the world and more than 2 billion Muslims.   There are 50 Muslim majority countries and  one  Jewish country.  Just from sheer numbers alone, it is no surprise that we are not very popular.

But in many places, we have also seen the massive hypocrisy of some "progressives."  On campuses across the U.S. and Canada - and in many other places around the world, so called "progressives" are chanting slogans like "Free Palestine" which is essentially a call for the destruction of Israel.  We have seen  signed letters  supporting Hamas actions. We are seeing professors (even in disciplines totally unrelated to Mideastern studies) attacking Israel.  By openly supporting terrorist groups and rationalizing terrorist atrocities, these groups are, effectively, openly endorsing the same type of violence against Jews everywhere. It is simply shocking. And it is resulting in security incidents and concerns for Jews all over the world.

To his credit, U.S. President has withstood this "progressive" pressure so far and has stood with Israel.  By sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, the U.S. has maintained a strong deterrent against the prospect of Hezbollah or Iran widening the war and turning it into a full-blown regional conflict.  The U.S. has also fought off U.N. attempts to enact anti-Israel security council resolutions at the U.N.  I am not sure that President Biden will maintain the resolve to continue supporting Israel until Israel has defeated Hamas but I certainly hope he will. To do otherwise would render all of his efforts to date meaningless.

Other Fallout

Even as the war progresses, the political situation in Israel is tenuous. Prime Minister Netanyahu spent years portraying himself as the only leader who could maintain security and deterrence in Israel. In one series of election ads, he argued that he was uniquely able to stay on top of intelligence and "sniff out" any potential security threats even  before they could occur.  Just a few election cycles ago, Bibi used giant billboards of himself standing alongside Putin and Trump -  his "friends."  

Even as Russia attacked Ukraine and many Israelis urged the government to take a more pro-Ukraine stance, Bibi's policy was to placate Russia and stay as neutral as possible. At this point, however, Putin has completely turned against Israel and Russia is working closely with the Iranians, who fund and support Hamas. Bibi's relationship with Turkish leader Erdogan has fared even worse. Erdogan has been spouting some of the most anti-Israel venom of any leader in the world.  He even rivals the Iranian leadership in that category.

Oddly enough, Bibi's closest friend has been President Biden. This after all of Bibi's efforts to turn Israel into a  partisan issue in the  U.S., by attacking Obama, supporting Trump and other Republicans - and interfering outright in U.S. elections.  All of those efforts by Bibi have been exposed as a failed policy.  Some of Bibi's current cabinet ministers launched vicious attacks on President Biden and his government prior to the war. A few have since apologized. But long term, it is a disastrous policy to disregard the Democrats and cultivate only the Republican party for pro-Israel support - especially looking at long term U.S.  demographics.

Aside from foreign policy issues, Prime Minister Netanyahu is embroiled in all kinds of political issues at home. He  put together a coalition of far right ultra religious parties and idealogues who had limited practical experience and even less expertise. As a result, when this war started, Bibi's government was  exposed as one with few, if any, capable ministers. For most Israelis, the government seems to  have gone AWOL.  There are few ministers appearing on TV or taking  visible action in the circumstances.  Despite all of the pressing needs, the government just does not seem to be responding to the situation.

The army is responding, for  sure.  But that seems to be the only competent organization currently functioning.  

In one of his first press conferences since the war started - in which Bibi agreed to take questions, he refused to take any direct responsibility for the current war. Later that night, at about 1 a.m., he doubled down and sent out a tweet attacking the heads of the army, intelligence, and other organizations - as being the ones responsible for this whole debacle. The reaction was unprecedented. Even ministers in his own government called for him to retract his venomous tweet and apologize. The next morning, Bibi deleted the tweet and apologized. There were statements made that "should not have been said," he proclaimed.  Although he apologized, the damage was done and it will be very hard, if not impossible, for Bibi to fix this situation.  

Obviously, it is hard to predict how and when the war will end. Perhaps a very successful outcome will somehow save Bibi's political future and  legacy though given the damage that Israel has suffered, it is hard to imagine that any outcome will be viewed as a great victory.  I would think that if there were an election today, Bibi would suffer a massive defeat.

Women in the Military

Under the current far right government that Bibi assembled, there were calls from some of his coalition partners to limit the number of women  in combat roles in the Israeli military and to prevent women  from being accepted into certain units.  

But various articles in the Israeli media have been written about so many heroic efforts by women in combat roles fighting off Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 and at other times throughout the war.  As one commentator  noted in Yediot Ahronot, the events of this war will  almost certainly put an end to any discussions suggesting that women are unsuited for combat at the highest levels.

Judea and Samaria - the "West Bank"

Part of the Hamas plan, apparently, was to trigger the involvement of Palestinians from Judea and  Samaria to  jump into the war and open up a new front. Although there have been fights with Palestinians, particularly in Jenin, this type of full Palestinian involvement has not materialized.  

At the same time, there have been reports,  in Israeli media of Jewish residents of these areas attacking Arab  Palestinians.  Obviously, in my view, this is totally unacceptable.  It must be condemned in the strongest language and the Israeli police and military forces must take all required steps to stop these attacks and arrest any perpetrators.

This is a major challenge with far right activists like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in the  government but hopefully Israel will wind up with a more balanced  and sane government once this war ends.  

Other

On a personal note, we have been lucky so far that there have been very few sirens in Ra'anana and few if any missiles have actually landed in our city.  Many other cities have had to  grapple with much more  difficult  situations.

But the overall situation in Israeli is very challenging  and stressful right now.  When asked how they are doing, a common response from Israelis these days is "the same as everyone else, I guess..."

We are worried about the safety of more than 240 hostages, about our soldiers, and about civilians everywhere. We have a great deal of uncertainty as to whether Hezbollah and Lebanon will enter the war and maybe even Iran. And we have no clear anticipated resolution that will lead to peace and security for  Israel and for the region.

I am planning to fly to Toronto for a short period later this week.  El Al is now almost the only airline flying regularly out of Tel-Aviv, so I will have to fly to Europe or the U.S. on El Al and then transfer to Toronto.

This is very difficult with family members in the army, ongoing missile attacks, and so much uncertainty. But maybe things will change dramatically soon and we will see an end to this war sooner  than anticipated.  I am not particularly hopeful but it can't hurt to try and be optimistic.

  

War in Israel - Day 16 - Update

We are in day 16 of war and there are no signs that we are anywhere near any kind of cease-fire.  On the contrary, there are significant signs that this war will expand very soon.  It is evident that Israel is fighting a war against Iran, to this point, against Iran's proxies - Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian-based fighters and now, the Houthis, in Yemen.  Many different articles, including articles in Reuters and other places (often pro-Hamas) have quoted Iranian sources as all but admitting that Iran is pulling the strings and controlling the extent to which Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others, will be involved.  

Iran has stated many times, for years, that it would like to destroy Israel and plans to so. To that end, it has armed Hamas, Hezbollah and other forces, and worked on developing nuclear weapons, with the primary intention of carrying out attacks against Israel.  If Iran views this war as the opportunity it has been waiting for, it may join the war directly. That would almost certainly mean fighting directly against the U.S. On the optimistic side, it is far from clear at this point that Iran is ready for or interested in that entanglement.

With that opening, I would like to cover a few different areas in the limited scope of this blog. Call it news or items that jump out at me since I could not possibly write this as a comprehensive blog. Even in non-war times, the task would be Herculean.  In times of war it would be impossible.

Fall Out from October 7 - Simchat Torah Massacre 

As of now, the Israeli government reports that Hamas and its allies are holding 212 hostages in Gaza - the majority of whom are civilians including young children, senior citizens, men and women of all ages.  Some soldiers are also being held captive.  More than 1,300 Israelis were killed in the attacks on October 7, the vast majority of whom were civilians.  More than 3,000 were injured. More than 300 are still in the hospital and at least 50 of those are in serious or critical condition.

Since October 7, extensive information has emerged about what took place, about Hamas'  preparations, plans, weaponry and goals. The details are often too gruesome to recount. Victims were burned alive, often tied together with wires before being set on fire. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified. Infants were murdered and in many cases decapitated. Whole families were tortured and then murdered. Civilians of all different ages were murdered in horrendous fashion.

Investigators found Hamas instruction booklets carried by many of the terrorists with detailed plans.  The plans specifically noted where the schools, nurseries and  synagogues were with instructions for  murdering everyone in those places. These Hamas terrorists also brought with them extra blood supplies, food provisions, medicines and sufficient provisions to last for one to two months. They also brought large quantities of captogen (fenethylline), a psychostimulant, which is mainly produced in Syria, a drug that was also used by members of ISIS. The plans that Hamas terrorists were carrying included instructions for massacring civilians in Ashqelon and Kiryat Gat.

This mass terrorist attack has devasted most of the Israeli communities that were situated near the Gaza strip. Whole neighbourhoods were destroyed, the homes were burned down, everything nearby was set aflame or destroyed. The survivors have been placed in hotels in different places in Israel - or with other communities or Israelis in different places. Israelis across the country have organized groups to help with supplies, fundraising, food and every other possible type of help.  

Israel's Reaction So Far

How is a country to react to this type of attack? Since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005, Gaza has been controlled and run by Hamas, a terrorist organization, which acts as the Gaza government. Hamas has dedicated itself to building up weaponry, tunnels, military forces and it has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. It has fostered hatred of Jews in its schools, training camps and throughout the Gaza strip. This is our neighbour.

Israel has fought several wars with Gaza during which Gaza has launched rocket attacks at civilian targets across Israel and targeted Israeli civilians in every way possible. On each occasion, world leaders have called for "restraint" and "proportionality" while Israel has tried to get to the source of these attacks by going after Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces - while trying to minimize civilian casualties. That is a challenging task since Hamas sets up its headquarters and its munitions depots in densely populated centres including schools, mosques, hospitals and underground beneath residential areas.

But the scope of this 2023 attack is on an entirely different scale. More than 1,400 people killed in an  attack in Israel is an unimaginable number. On a per-capita basis, this would be the equivalent of an attack on the U.S. from a neighbouring country that killed more than 40,000 people (in gruesome  ways) in several different cities - and injured more than 90,000.   

It is also worth noting that at the time Hamas carried out these attacks on Israeli communities, it announced that it was "declaring war" on Israel. Contrary to some reports you may have read, Israel did not just go ahead and launch a war on Hamas. Rather, it responded to Hamas.

When a country is faced with a murderous, terrorist regime next door, that carries out these types of attacks, it should be fairly evident that there are few alternatives. Israel has no alternative now but to fight to destroy and overthrow the Hamas regime, much in the same way the Allies had to rid the world of the murderous Nazi regime or the Japanese leadership during World War II. Israel will target the entire Hamas leadership, its military infrastructure, its tunnel systems and its military arsenals. I think it is unlikely that this war will end until the vast majority of this has all been destroyed. Anything short will leave Israel fighting these wars over and over and over, every two or three years.

What are the alternatives?  Around the world, some Hamas allies, supporters and other apologists are calling  for an immediate "cease fire."  What would that mean?  It would pretty much be a surrender for  Israel and would allow Hamas to rebuild its arsenal and prepare for the next attack. This is not happening. Israel cannot function with this type of regime continuing to threaten and carry out attacks repeatedly.

Political  Solution?  There isn't really one at this time. Although many Israelis are hoping that it will be possible to reach a political deal with the Palestinians, especially those currently living in Judea and  Samaria (the "West Bank"), there is no possibility of reaching a deal with a terrorist group like Hamas, dedicated to destroying Israel. Ultimately, the regime will need to be replaced with some other form of government, with careful controls to keep the area demilitarized - and a build up of economic infrastructure and opportunity, rather than military infrastructure. Alternatives might include another Palestinian leadership, some type of international coalition or some other arrangements. If the Palestinian people in Gaza are able to install a government that is focused on economic, health care, infrastructure and other initiatives, rather then on destroying Israel, there may be a chance for future, peaceful co-existence.

Since 2005, Israel and Egypt have both controlled different parts of the border to Gaza. Palestinian advocates are constantly arguing that Israel should "open its borders" and let Gazans into Israel to work, travel etc., But look at what happened now. For one thing, Hamas has spent years building up weaponry, rockets, all kinds of military equipment, while planning its attacks. Nothing about what Hamas has done since 2005, and especially in these attacks, provides any reason for Israel to open or ease its border with Gaza.

There were many workers from Gaza with permits to work in Israel, who were crossing into Israel to work regularly. We now know that many of these workers were cooperating with Hamas - taking pictures, providing information about military bases, security arrangements in communities and detailed drawings and plans of places in Israel. Much of this information was used by Hamas in its attacks. I do not see a situation in the near future where Gaza residents will be crossing into Israel, for any reason after this war ends. If one of the supposed "reasons" for this Hamas massacre was to "open the gates," this type of terrorism will certainly set back any discussion of looser borders.

Other Conflict Areas

As I mentioned above, it is quite clear that much of the current anti-Israeli activity is being controlled by the Iranian regime, which is the primary sponsor of Hamas. Iran also sponsors, equips, trains and controls the Hezbollah regime, which is the largest non-state military actor in the region and which controls Lebanon.

Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Hezbollah has been making all kinds of threats against Israel. As well, Hezbollah has been launching increasingly severe attacks against Israel from the north.  They have launched rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and artillery fire at Israel, killing several  Israelis and wounding many others. Israel has responded with attacks that have killed several Hezbollah fighters and that have corresponded to the intensity of the Hezbollah attacks.  

There is a growing sense that Israel will soon be embroiled in a full scale war with Lebanon. Israel has ordered the evacuation of many of its northern cities, including Metullah. The U.S. has moved two aircraft carriers to the region. Canada has announced an evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon. Israel has called up a massive number of reserve soldiers and has an enormous number of troops ready to fight on its northern border. It is all up to the leaders in Iran - to give the signal to Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah - to launch a full scale war. The U.S. has, thus far, indicated that it will not put "boots on the ground" in Lebanon - but it may well be that aircraft from the U.S.S. Gerald Ford or the U.S.S. Eisenhower would become involved if Israel were to be attacked by Lebanon.

It seems unlikely that Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah, even though some Israeli military leaders now believe that would be better for Israel than waiting to be attacked. But President Biden seems to be urging Israel to refrain, with the hope that Hezbollah may ultimately choose to stay out of the conflict. It is really hard to predict at this point. But if Hezbollah goes all in for a full military conflict with Israel, that may well spread to include Iran and the U.S.

Iran also has armed forces in north eastern Syria that have been arriving from Iraq. Israel has already launched some defensive actions against some of these forces as they progress towards Israel.

On Thursday night - the Iranian backed Houthis, a Yemenite group, loyal to Iran, launched several drones at Israel, destined for Eilat. These attacks were reportedly thwarted by the U.S. navy - but we  now have an indication that another Iranian proxy, the Yemenite Houthis, want to become involved as well. I don't think they were really on Israel's radar - and the Houthis have had enough problems fighting their own civil war in Yemen. But here we are, adding in another possible party to the conflict.  As a breaking news addition to this update, just before I complete it, the Houthis have just announced that if Israel begins a ground incursion into Gaza, the Houthis will launch an all out attack on all Israeli ships in the Red Sea. I would imagine that Israel and/or the U.S. would strike the Houthis very hard if they carry out these threats.

Overall, it is quite evident that Israel is now fighting a broad, regional war, sponsored by Iran and its proxies, which has become more of an existential threat than what I might have previously described as a more localized but large-scale Hamas terrorist attack. The war is still simmering in some places but it may boil over soon and the scale of this war may be unfathomable. 

The World

This past week, leaders from around the world visited Israel, including President Biden, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Sunak, German Chancellor Scholz. For the most part, these leaders were sympathetic to Israel, aware of the situation - and at the same time, trying to do whatever they can to limit the spread of the war and to minimize civilian casualties. Israelis were particularly comforted impressed by President Biden who showed extraordinary leadership. He sent two aircraft carriers to the region immediately. He visited Israel during war time, in dangerous conditions. He met with families of hostages and with Israelis who acted heroically to save others. Further, President Biden delivered three speeches, two of which were exceptional (the two speeches he gave in Israel). 

As a side note, President Biden's second speech in Israel included a mini "dvar-Torah" - a Bible-related discussion - during which he spoke about the holiday that the Jewish people were celebrating the day of the Hamas massacre. He mentioned the tremendous loss that the Jewish people faced when Moses died at the end of the last book of the Torah. The President spoke about how the holiday marks a point in the year where the Jewish people conclude the annual reading of the Torah, by reading the final chapter, with all of its sadness, and then somehow move on to a new beginning, by starting the reading of the Torah over again, right away. I thought was very well done, whether it was written by the President himself, one of his speech writers or hired rabbi somewhere.   

All of this support and empathy stands in enormous contrast to the U.S. stance 50 years ago, during the Yom Kippur  War, in which President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger were reluctant to support Israel in any way at the war's outset.  The U.S. initially turned down Israel's requests even though the U.S.S.R. was providing airlifts of military equipment to Egypt and Syria, the countries that had launched the 1973 war. President Biden still has to deal with some  in his party who would prefer a less "pro-Israel" stance but for now, in my view, just as he has done in the case of the Ukraine, President Biden has shown some real leadership. 

The Press

The war is just over two weeks old but we have already seen some examples of outrageous reporting.  The New York Times reported on an alleged Israeli attack on a Palestinian hospital just minutes after it  occurred, promptly blaming the Israelis and claiming that Israel had killed more than 500 civilians. As we now know, the attack was from an Islamic Jihad missile, aimed at Israel, that misfired. This has been verified by U.S., French, British, Israeli and even Canadian intelligence (the Canadians took the  longest time to confirm). The rocket landed in the hospital parking lot and killed less than 50 people.  So it wasn't Israel targeting a hospital, it wasn't an airstrike and the rocket, sent by the Islamic Jihad, killed less than 50 people and not 500. How does the New York Times get something like this so wrong?  And how do they repair the damage they caused? The NYT headlines and those of media outlets around the world led to Arab demonstrations around the world, in Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and other countries. We should expect more from the New York Times and other media outlets. Is it too much to ask for the truth?

The CBC in Canada continues to avoid calling Hamas members terrorists. Instead we get "fighters," "gunmen" or "militants." Surely those are the right labels for these types of attacks including burning people alive, rapes, hostage taking, beheadings, torture and other atrocities. Even though the UK lists  Hamas, officially, as a "terrorist organization," the BBC has, to date, refused to call Hamas members "terrorists," preferring "Hamas Fighters" and other labels. Needless to say, all of this is shameful.

There are a great many other points to cover over worldwide media issues, but I will leave this for another blog.  I would just say, for one, I have seen and read some outstanding speeches and articles over the past few weeks that have made the case for Israel very well, including some talks by Michal Cotler-Wunsh, Rabbi Cosgrove of the Park Avenue Synagogue and many others.  

I have also read about the backfire against the Harvard students who are upset that they have been "doxxed" and "outed" for making statements supportive of Hamas after its brutal attacks.  They claim  "freedom of speech."  But I really don't think that freedom of speech means anonymously supporting terrorist attacks and remaining free of any accountability or consequences. If these people were lauding other terrorist attacks (like 9/11) or promoting attacks against blacks, women, other minorities, etc., they would almost certainly be sanctioned, in some cases, dismissed from their jobs or they would face other consequences. Anyone who has any justification to offer for these obscene and outrageous crimes against civilians obviously has other motives.  

Other

Most international airlines have suspended their service to Israel, though El Al and a handful of other airlines continue to fly.  I was scheduled to fly to Canada this week but all Air Canada flights have been suspended at least until October 31, 2023. Looks like I will have to fly El Al to leave the country in early November (and change somewhere in Europe or the U.S.) to attend to different matters that require me to be in Canada. Will have to see what things look like at that point in time.

We supplied about 160 soldiers (one of whom was a family member) with Jachnun for Shabbat along with the usual accompaniments - hard boiled  eggs, grated tomato sauce, hot sauce etc.,  The soldiers  were thrilled.  They have food and are not short of supplies. But they are always happy to get something special, especially for Shabbat. Israel is a small country and the distances are manageable, so many parents make food deliveries to bases where there children are stationed - when that is possible. I won't give a detailed description of "Jachnun" other than to say that it is originally a Yemenite Jewish food, eaten on Shabbat, that has become a Shabbat morning delicacy for Israelis everywhere over the years.

Our drive to meet up with the soldiers was a bit nail-biting, even though it was uneventful, thankfully.

For now, Ra'anana has been relatively quiet. We have had several sirens go off, which require us to go to the "secured room" - a form of bomb shelter.  But I'm not aware of anything landing in Ra'anana so far. If Hezbollah joins the war, things may be very different.

Many businesses are still open around Israel but this war is very different from anything I have seen here since my first time coming to Israel in 1982. There is a real concern that this has been, and will be, one of the most difficult wars that Israel has fought. We are mourning for the more than 1400 victims of this Hamas massacre. Some of the bodies have not yet been identified and many funerals have not yet taken place. We are hoping and praying for the safety and well being of our soldiers and civilians, for the return of all of the hostages and for the full recovery of all those of who have been injured. We also hope for a speedy victory over Hamas with the lowest possible number of civilian casualties among Israelis and innocent Palestinians and a real opportunity to change the reality in this region when this is all over. I cannot say that I am too optimistic at this point but we have no alternative but to hope for the best.

Day 8 of War - Increasing Escalation

We are the midst of day eight of a war with Hamas/Gaza, which is a really a war with several parties, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the Palestinian Authority, even though parts of this war have not yet started.  I don't write this as a scare tactic but rather as my best assessment of where we are currently.

I am not going to recap in this blog the full extent of the massacre conduct by Hamas terrorists last week. I will say that over the past week, we have learned more and more details of the extensive planning that went into this attack with the clear aim of murdering civilians, taking hostages, looting and other outrageous acts. More than 1,300 Israelis were murdered and more than 3,000 were injured - all of this conducted by the official government that runs and controls the Gaza strip -  Hamas - which announced its actions as a "declaration of war" on Israel last week.

Since last week, Israel has launched extensive air raids on Gaza and has killed several of Hamas' senior military commanders. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops have been called up and many are massed at the border of Gaza, prepared to enter if and when they receive the order to do so.

Although Israel has warned residents of northern Gaza to leave and take shelter in the south - and has threatened to begin a ground option "at any time" - the extent and nature of the pending Israeli operation is yet to be determined. It is clearly a top priority for Israel to destroy the entire network of Hamas tunnels, weapons and communications facilities and everything else that Hamas has built up underground across Gaza.  How exactly Israel plans to do this remains to be seen. However, Israelis across the political spectrum are largely unified and view the complete destruction of Hamas' military capabilities as an imperative and the key war aim for Israel.

Other Fronts

As we know, Hamas is funded, trained and supported by Iran as well as Qatar and to some extent, Turkey.  Hamas also works closely with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon and parts of Syria.  Hezbollah has pledged, at least in some form, to support Hamas in this war.  It may well be that Hezbollah and Hamas have a detailed plan as to how and when Hezbollah will get involved.  Or perhaps Hezbollah is playing it by ear. 

Since the war  began, Hezbollah has been slowly increasing its involvement - just enough to avoid starting a full scale war. They have fired unmanned drones, missiles, rockets and other weaponry at Israel but in small quantities. Today, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks. In the morning, they fired an RPG that killed one  Israeli and  injured five others. Later this afternoon, they fired another RPG that killed two more civilians.  As I have been writing this blog, Hezbollah has fired 7 more RPGs at Israeli troops. Israel has answered these attacks with air strikes and other retaliatory measures, though still on a relatively restrained scale. However, at this point, it now seems to be a question of when, rather then if, Israel will be in a full scale war with Hezbollah and Lebanon. This may well erupt completely today or tomorrow.

Lebanon has a massive storehouse of missiles, drones, rockets and all types of other weaponry. Hezbollah has thousands of Hezbollah fighters gathered near the border and it seems very unlikely that they will  decide to stay out of the war. The US has two aircraft carriers in place, one in the Mediterranean off the coast of  Israel.  It is unclear what role the U.S. will play in a fight between Israel and Hezbollah, but President Biden's speeches suggest that the U.S. is likely to use its air power if Israel is attacked by Hezbollah/Iran.

To the east of Lebanon, thousands of troops are now ready in Syria, some from Syria and some from Iraq. So far, these troops have fired a few times towards Israel. There are suggestions that Hezbollah would rather attack Israel from the east - and have Syria serve as the war theatre rather than Lebanon. However, Israel is not buying this. If Israel is drawn into an all out war with Hezbollah, Israel will almost certainly flatten parts of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. That threat may be the one thing that is restraining Hezbollah so far.

Palestinian areas in Judea and Samaria including groups in Jenin are also threatening to get involved, all to help spread the army thinner. Right now, this does not seem to be a major threat but it may develop into one.

The major player behind all of this is clearly Iran, which is controlling the strings of everything that is going on. It is unclear whether Iran is interested in joining this war, though it has threatened to destroy Israel for many years.  The U.S. aircraft carriers may be a deterrent here but we simply don't know what Iran has planned as part of this war.

Stories of Bravery    

There are hundreds of stories of incredible acts of bravery that took place last week by police officers, soldiers, civilians and others. I wanted to mention a few.

In the kibbutz of Nir Am, the leader of the Kibbutz's Readiness Forces, Inbal Lieberman (26), received an early notification of an impending attack. She sprung into action, got all of the forces up and ready and developed an action plan and spread the forces (12 of them) to different stations across the Kibbutz. With her direction, the Kibbutz forces held off and killed waves of Hamas terrorists - until Israeli enforcements were later able to arrive and engage the remaining Hamas forces further. No civilians were killed at Nir Am, one of the few developments that suffered no civilian casualties and was not destroyed by the terrorists on Saturday October 7, 2023.

Another story involves Yair Golan, who is a former Knesset member for the left wing Meretz party. He is also a retired Major General in the IDF. He is  61. He received phone calls from different people early Sunday morning about kids who were trapped at the Nova party - and were reporting that Hamas terrorists were massacring people. Described as a "one-man army," Golan wasted no time. He grabbed a weapon, got into his car and sped to the area. In what sounds like scenes from a Mission Impossible or James Bond movie - he raced to locations provided to him by trapped party-goers, using their cell-phones. Along the way, he killed several Hamas terrorists. He loaded up his car, drove the kids to safety and went back to pick up other groups. It is unclear how many he brought to safety but the stories are simply astounding. Earlier this year, Golan was being called a "traitor" and "anarchist" by some Likud members since he opposed Netanyahu's attack on the judiciary. Now many of those same members are saluting his bravery and thanking him.

I also want to mention the story of Moran Tagdi, a police officer who took control of a dangerous situation involving a group of Hamas terrorists fighting from the rooftop of a two story complex in one of the Kibbutzim.  A group of officers and soldiers were involved in an intense gunfight with Hamas terrorists who had grenades, RPGs and other weapons. Tagdi came up with a plan - and told the other officers to continue to occupy the attention of the terrorists. She sent Whatsapp messages to her kids, telling them that she loved them, since she didn't know if she would survive. She took two fighters with her. They snuck around the rear of the building, made her way up the stairs and killed the three terrorists.  

There are hundreds of other stories but the stories I have cited caught my attention his week. Many stories didn't turn out as well. One Israeli commando apparently killed more than 40 Hamas terrorists himself over a period of three hours before he ran out of ammunition and was killed himself. Another group of Kibbutz Readiness forces tried to fight back but were hit with rocket launchers by Hamas and were all killed - and unable to stop Hamas pillaging, murder and hostage-taking in their kibbutz. More than 250 Israeli soldiers and more than 40 police officers were killed fighting back.  

It is evident that even in the face of a massive surprise invasion by terrorists intent on carrying out all kinds of heinous crimes, there were many points of light in the form of brave police officers, soldiers and civilians who acted quickly and saved lives.

Hostages

As you probably know, there are more than 140 hostages  in Gaza, of all different ages, taken by Hamas. We have very limited information  about them or their whereabouts. It may be that the IDF is trying to rescue some as we speak - though so far - Israel has only managed to retrieve some bodies of hostages who were either killed in Hamas captivity or whose bodies were taken by Hamas for negotiations. We have not heard about any efforts by the Red Cross or any other "humanitarian" organizations to try and release these hostages. President Biden met personally with family members of some of the hostages. While Israel always makes it a key priority to rescue its hostages, it is facing major challenges  in the  context of this current war.  I have to believe that the army is taking whatever steps it can but this is a very difficult  situation.

Personal

We appreciate the many warm messages we have received. Things are extremely stressful here. The war is threatening to spin out of control and grow into a much wider regional conflict. We are concerned for the safety of family members, friends, neighbours, community members and  others - and there is a great deal of uncertainty how long this might go on. It could be several months or longer.

Israel is determined to remove Hamas from Gaza as a threat and to ensure that Gaza cannot threaten Israel militarily.  It is also determined to capture or kill all of those who were responsible for the heinous terrorist acts committed last week. Both of those goals may take a while and may lead to months and months of fighting - while Israel may also have to fight one or two additional fronts at the same time.  

We hope and pray that this will all end quickly and successfully for Israel, however one might describe "success" in these circumstances, given what has taken place so far.

 

Day 6 - Israel's War with Hamas: Some Comments and Updates

We are in the 6th day of Israel's war with Hamas - that was launched by Hamas on Saturday October 7, 2023.  Israel military and political spokespeople are talking about a "lengthy war" that it is still in its very early stages.  Israel has been talking about completely limiting the military capabilities of Hamas as a war aim - in other words, the destruction of the organization.  The key to Hamas' military and communication capabilities is its massive network of deep, hidden, tunnels under Gaza.  Israel would need to destroy most of this network including the munitions being stored there and the leadership hiding there.

One question is whether Israel can actually accomplish this objective and if so, what the cost would be - in terms of lives of our soldiers, civilian casualties on both sides and other costs.  We would like to think that between the U.S. and Israel - there would be remote weaponry that we could send - drones, robots, whatever, to do much of  this work.  But I am concerned that sending large numbers of our young soldiers to booby trapped tunnels will cost us a very heavy price in young lives.  I hope that our military leaders have appropriate plans, using the newest technologies available that make sense.  

Extent of Saturday's Disaster

When I first wrote an update on Sunday, the extent of the atrocities that had been perpetrated by Hamas was not yet clear.  We are still finding bodies, gathering information and learning about what took place.

I am not going to get into great detail here as the information is now available in many different places including extensive articles in the New York times, the Jerusalem Post, The  Israel Times, and  many other  news  outlets.  But I want to mention a few things.

As you probably know by now, Hamas terrorists crossed into Israel by  breaking through security fences in twenty different places. There are estimates that more than 2,000 terrorists crossed into Israel and this number may be closer to 4,000.  (As  of yesterday, Israeli authorities report that they have more than 1,500 bodies of dead Hamas terrorists in Israel)

The terrorists spread out and went to several destinations.  One group of at least four white SUVs, loaded with terrorists and weaponry, including RPGs, grenades, and mass quantities of ammunition  went straight to the Nova music festival - an outdoor music festival being attended by more than 2,000 young people.  They opened fire from four different directions and began massacring concert goers.  Many tried to get into their cars and leave.  Some succeeded but many cars were destroyed by terrorists by gunfire, grenades, RPG fire and other means. Others tried to flee by foot. Some tried to hide in nearby Kibbutzim, buildings or different  places. The terrorists spent hours hunting down these young concert-goers. There are reports of rapes, mutilations, and other unspeakable horrors. More then 260 people were murdered and many were taken prisoner, though we still don't have an exact count.

Some of the people who hid themselves managed to survive and others managed to escape in vehicles.  But when the army was later able to get control of the area - the scenes of carnage were horrific. Bodies everywhere, burnt out cars, many with people who had been shot. Unspeakable horrors. Many young people were taken prisoner, some injured, loaded on to vehicles and taken to Gaza.

Other groups of terrorists went directly to the 22 towns, settlements and Kibbutzim that are nearest to Gaza. Many of these places have some defence forces in place but they were overwhelmed. With standing forces of 12-15 soldiers, they could not hold off arriving groups of 100-200 armed terrorists at each location. The terrorists began going from house to house murdering the occupants, setting fire to the homes, and looting property.  In some cases they took hostages. In most cases, they murdered all of the occupants including young children, elderly, men and women. In some cases, people were hiding in their bomb shelters, which are supposed to have impenetrable doors. Where the terrorists could not get in, they tried to use explosives to break down the doors or they set fire to the whole house. Some people died of smoke asphyxiation.  Some opened the doors to get air and then were attacked.  Most of these communities had Whatsapp groups and people were sending messages to each other warning them. But nothing could be done to save them.

From what we now know, it took the army eight hours, if not more, to take control of these towns and kibbutzim. But by then, it was far too late. The damage had been done. The people had been massacred. The towns and  kibbutzim were completely destroyed. It was nothing less than a slaughter and an unmitigated disaster for all of those communities, for the army, for all of Israel, for Jewish people everywhere - and indeed, for all people of goodwill who oppose violence and terrorism.  

We now know that more than 1,200 Israelis have been killed since Saturday by Hamas and more than 3,000 have been injured. The civilians who were killed range from infants to seniors in their nineties. More than 150 have been taken captive of all ages. We do not know exactly how many captives there are and we do not  know how many are still alive.  

Included in that number are 222 Israeli soldiers as of this morning and more than 50 police officers.  Most of the soldiers are young people between 18 and 21 who were serving as conscripted soldiers.  Some were killed in a training base near Gaza while they were still in their beds.  

Today there are reports that aside from murdering and massacring civilians, the terrorists also looted homes and stole credit cards and bank cards which they have now been using to make purchases.  Israeli banks are taking immediate action to stop this after receiving numerous complaints.

Israel's Response

At the time it launched these attacks, Hamas "declared war" on Israel. Hamas is the governing authority of Gaza and  controls all aspects of life in the  Gaza strip. This is really the equivalent of one neighbouring country declaring war on another and Israel has little alternative but to fight this war.

Israel has stated its objectives as eliminating the military capabilities of Hamas, tracking down and  eliminating those responsible for these attacks and atrocities and taking steps to ensure that there will be no more attacks on Israel from Gaza. Israel has called up more than 330,000 reserve soldiers to add to its standing forces of more than 170,000. These forces are not all destined for Gaza. Israel has used some of these forces to strengthen its northern border (with Lebanon/Hezbollah) and some to strengthen its Northeastern border (with Syria). Other forces have been sent to Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank"). Israel's initial response has been a massive air force campaign to attack military and strategic Hamas targets from the air.

Israeli forces have sprung into action and have still been fighting pockets of terrorists in and around the Gaza strip - included suspected reinforcements from Gaza that may have been sent through tunnels or in other ways.  Many soldiers have fought for their lives to fend off Hamas terrorists, protect and rescue civilians and take whatever action is needed to help defend their country. And sadly, many have been killed in action.

At some point, Israel will need to attack the  Hamas underground. I am not a military strategist and I have no idea as to how and when they will move to this next phase but I am praying for the welfare of our young soldiers - who are - all of us.  Our family, our extended family, our friends' children, fellow synagogue members, residents of our city - the army is made up of everyone in Israel - the people - and these brave young  people are the ones supporting us, risking their lives and fighting for the future of this country.

Hostages

We also know that Hamas is holding at least 150 hostages and the number may be as high as 200. We do not know how many are being held, how many are alive, what condition they are in or where they are. Israel has always made the rescue of hostages its highest priority and I believe they are looking at all possible options including negotiations, rescue attempts and other efforts. They also believe that Hamas believes that the hostages are "assets" and will want to keep them alive to trade for Hamas prisoners later.  For obvious reasons, I think Israeli officials are saying little about their actual efforts, which, I assume, should not be taken to mean that they are ignoring this pressing challenge.

What Now?

It is unclear what may develop in coming days or even coming hours or minutes.  Yesterday, we were glued to the news for most of the day.  At about 8 p.m. Israel time, there were reports that Hezbollah had unleashed a large number of unmanned drones that were headed to different targets across the  country.  It appeared that we were about to open a second massive front with Hezbollah. According to many commentators, this will mean thousands and thousands of missiles sent to Israeli residential areas, all at the same time in an effort to overwhelm missile defence systems. It turned out to be some type of false alarm.

Hezbollah has apparently floated some test balloons. Some Hezbollah fighters were sent over the border in the North on Tuesday.  Israel killed five of them. In other incidents, Hezbollah has fired RPGs, artillery and other weaponry at Israel but in isolated incidents. Some commentators have speculated that they are doing the "bare minimum" to show that they are "supporting" Hamas but not enough to enter the war. We simply don't know if Hezbollah plans to enter this war or not. If it does, Israel will have no choice but to attack and destroy targets all over Lebanon - and that will be a very heavy price for the country. Hezbollah may not care - and Iran (which controls Hezbollah) may care even less about the fate of Lebanon but we must hope that Hezbollah does not see this as a worthwhile action. That being said, as of now, it seems to me that there is a fairly high probability that Hezbollah will be involved in the coming days or weeks - or any minute, really.

World Support

President Biden gave a speech on Tuesday in which he spoke about the horrible acts that Hamas had perpetrated.  He tied these acts to the long history of  anti-Semitic acts and massacres that the Jewish people have faced  throughout history. He was empathetic and  emotional. He pledged full U.S. support for Israel to defeat Hamas and he backed up his pledge by sending immediate assistance including the U.S.S. Gerald Ford to the area and a pledge of various military equipment and supplies. By most accounts, it is the strongest U.S. statement of support for Israel ever during war time. Israelis (including Israeli politicians) across the political spectrum have thanked President Biden for this show of support and in some cases, have stated that they were wrong about the way they viewed Biden. Secretary of State Blinken also delivered an outstanding address this morning, which was empathetic, emotional and  unwaveringly supportive.  I would recommend watching both of these statements, though I don't have the links handy.

By contrast, the Israeli media is showing clips of former President Trump, from an event yesterday, attacking Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israeli defence minister Gallant, the Israeli army, Israeli intelligence and ridiculing Israel's preparedness. Among other things, Trump claims that this "never would have happened if he was still President" but cannot point to anything specific he would have done (or not done) that would make this a true statement. I would also recommend that you watch these comments.

Sorry - it is not my intention, generally, in this blog to delve into U.S. politics - but I am writing about how these things are being reported from an Israeli perspective.  

From Canada, we hear that one of Canada's largest unions - CUPE (Canadian Union of Public Employees), which represents 700,000 public service employees - has been releasing statements that can only be viewed as justifying and supporting Hamas attacks.  Quite appalling.  The president of CUPE Ontario, Fred Hahn, has doubled down following the criticism,  On Saturday, Hahn issued tweets about the Hamas massacres of civilians using "#resistance" in his Thanksgiving message.  How anyone could imagine that support for the wanton massacre of civilians is legitimate or "resistance" is simply mind boggling - and frightening. Sickening.

We have heard very little from Prime Minister Trudeau, other than a handful of statements that sound like the statements he and his government issue after any events involving Hamas. On the other hand, it was heartwarming to see so many Canadians gather in Toronto for a pro-Israel rally and there were some very powerful speeches at that rally. There have also been pro-Israel rallies in cities all over the world.

At the same time, Israel is in a very difficult situation. While faced with the imperative of clearing out and defeating Hamas terrorists, the terrorists have significant support in the Gaza strip which is densely packed with civilians.  This is expected to be a fight against guerilla warfare - and the effect on civilians in Gaza will also be devastating.  There are bound to be large number of civilian casualties and at some point, that will shift world opinion against Israel. Israel needs to find a way to destroy the underground tunnels and  Hamas storage and command facilities as quickly as possible while minimizing the civilian casualties - and that is a major challenge. Even if Israel is successful, there will be a vacuum in Gaza and it is unclear what would happen next.  But this is all for a later conversation.

Volunteering

Israelis across the country have  sprung into action - donating blood, putting together packages of supplies for soldiers, helping others in all different ways and, in general, answering calls to help in whatever ways might be needed.  We also see that people around the world are offering financial and other forms of assistance. Magen David Adom, the UJA, the Association  for the Welfare of the Soldiers of Israel and so many organizations are seeing a swell of financial support.  As well there are private initiatives to raise money directly to help groups of soldiers and supply them with more modern and update equipment, food deliveries and other necessities.  All of this is heart warming.

Political - Israeli

After four days of negotiations, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a deal last night with Benny Gantz to form a limited duration war-time cabinet.  This meant bringing in some experienced military leaders to Netanyahu's coalition and that should add some much needed input to the decision-making process and operational capabilities. I am not aware of all of the details of what has been agreed upon.  So far, Yair Lapid and his party have not joined this coalition, nor have other opposition parties. The war cabinet may well expand in coming days. For now, this first war time cabinet arrangement does seem like it will offer a significant increase in competence and reason to the current government.

Personal

Needless to say, this is all very difficult, on everyone  here. The macabre nature of these attacks is sickening and devastating. So many lives were lost - so many people massacred -  while at a  music festival - or in their beds or in shelters in their homes. The reports are gruesome and hard to process.  The psychological effect on all of us is overwhelming and difficult to process. Many of  us are looking for ways to deal with this mixture of feelings of loss, anxiety, frustration, anger, guilt and apprehension. Some people are sending around suggestions.  

We are extremely concerned about all of our brave soldiers and the dangers they are now facing. They are  our family, our friends, our  neighbours.  They are defending our homes.  We hope and pray for their safety.

And of course there is the stress of not knowing if and how this war may escalate.  If Hezbollah gets involved, we  will be in a full blown two front war that will unquestionably cause major damage in Israel, even if the damage in Lebanon is much worse. There is also concern about Iranian threats, which seems more remote - though Iran has repeatedly threatened to "wipe out" Israel over the years. The U.S. aircraft carriers in the region may help deter this type of escalation -  or they might provoke it.  

Air Canada has suspended flights to Israel until at least October 18, 2023 and most other world airlines have done the same. El Al is still flying, though they cancelled all of their direct Canadian flights some time ago (well before all of this began). Emirates, Fly Dubai, Bluebird Airways (Greek) are still flying out of Tel-Aviv and today's departure list shows Austrian Airways and Lufthansa operating flights as scheduled.

Of course I am also trying to get some work done. My Canadian clients do not know where I am (some do but most don't) - and a Zoom or Teams call can be interrupted by a sudden missile alarm, requiring me to move to a safe room. These are small problems, of course, next to what so many people in this country are facing. I appreciate that. But I am simply mentioning that all of this affects people in so many different ways.

How to Survive - Logic of a grandmother

A woman and her husband managed to survive after being held  hostage all day by five Hamas terrorists in Kibbutz Ophakim. The terrorists entered the house and started yelling "Allahu Akhbar" ("God is great") and told her and her husband to go upstairs. She decided to try to talk to her captives. She offered them coffee or tea. She asked them about their families. She says that she figured if they were hungry, her chances would  be worse - so she asked if she could make them some food and offered to cook them whatever they wanted. At one point, they pointed guns at her and her husband. She started saying "Shema Yisrael" and told them they would be better off keeping her and her husband as hostages. She asked them their names, ages, what they do. She then offered to teach them a song by Lior Narkis, an Israeli  singer. She continued to distract them in all different ways until, almost 8 hours later, her  son, (a commando officer) arrived with a group of other  commandos, entered the house, by surprise, from the roof and the back door - and managed to kill all of the terrorists. Rachel and her husband were taken to the hospital but survived unscathed. Obviously, most stories in Israel from Saturday did not end as well as this one. Rachel, her husband and her son have been interviewed a few times on different channels explaining how this lucky and quick-thinking grandmother was able to survive and save the lives of herself and her husband. I guess it helps to have a commando son with friends but they had to remain alive for quite a long time until they could be rescued.

Thanks

I want to say that we appreciate all of the messages of support - calls, emails, Whatsapp messages from friends  and family near and far.  These are stressful and dangerous times but we are hoping for the best. I am still hoping to attend a family Bat-Mitzvah on Saturday  Oct 21, 2023, though the prospects are not looking great. For now, I am here with my family, friends and the people of Israel, hoping that we can win and end this war as  quickly as possible - while realizing that we may be in for a long-haul fight.

Day 3: Israel War with Gaza - Limited Update

It is day 3 of the latest Israeli war with Gaza.  I am not a full-time reporter so there is a limit as to how much time I can spend writing these updates. But I wanted to share a few items.  

Numbers Update

First of all, as you might have read, the Israeli government is reporting that more than 700 people have been killed and more than 2300 injured.  Included in this number - more than 260 young people were murdered at a "Nature Party" early on Saturday morning.  Hamas and Islamic Jihad claim that they are holding more than 140 prisoners in Gaza.  It is unclear how many of these people are alive, how many are injured - and if injured, how seriously.  This includes young children, elderly, and others.

In response, Israel has been launching significant air force attacks on the Gaza strip - which reportedly includes a range of military targets including Hamas bases, weapons store houses and other facilities.  Gaza authorities report more that more than 400 Palestinians have been killed.  However, Hamas sent, by its accounts, some 1000 terrorists to Israel to carry out these attacks.  Israel has killed or captured more than 250 of them.  In short, just because a press service reports that a certain number of Palestinians were killed, that certainly does not mean that they were civilians - even though some civilians may have been killed.

Israeli Areas - Surrounding Gaza

The cities surrounding Gaza  -  22 different towns and cities - suffered severe and devasting damage and losses.  Israeli authorities report that all of these areas are now in Israeli control.  However, there are still isolated Hamas terrorists and groups of terrorists hiding  in unknown places.  Israeli forces are combing these cities, door by door, to look for terrorists.  They are also looking for civilians who may still be hiding or injured.  Sadly, they are still finding bodies of those who were murdered.  The army reports that some mines and other delayed timer devices were left in some places in these towns and cities - so they are being very cautious.  Since Saturday morning, Hamas has apparently sent additional reinforcements and Israeli forces have fought and defeated these groups wherever they have encountered them. 

Missiles

Hamas continues to fire thousands of missiles at civilian areas across Israel.  We had one alarm this morning  and spent some time in the shelter.  We heard a very loud noise - that sounded like one missile made it through the Iron Dome system but it is unclear where it landed.  Later, Hamas fired another barrage of missiles and one was a direct hit on a house in Ashdod.  There are reports of injuries from  that hit.  As I write, missiles are being fired by Hamas at locations all over the country though, fortunately, few of them are hitting targets.

Preparations

More than 300,000 reserve soldiers have been called to report to duty.  Israel is in a state of mass preparedness outside of Gaza, on its northern border, in Judea  and Samaria (the "West Bank") and other areas.  Just about everyone  we know between the ages of 21 and 30 who are eligible for reserve duty have been issued an "Order 8" - and order to report too duty. It is truly frightening.

It is unclear at this point what military decisions will be made. A massive ground assault on Gaza is a definite possibility but Israeli officials will have to weigh carefully whether they can actually win this type of war against guerilla forces that are hidden among civilians in densely populated areas.

Israel is also making military calculations with respect to the possibility that Iran-backed Hezbollah might open up a second front against Israel from the North.  This would be a massive escalation of the the conflict and would lead to tremendous damage in Israel and across Lebanon. It may also involve Syria and  Iran.  We certainly hope that things will not head in this direction, but Israel must be prepared for this possibility.

Political

I don't really have very much to report here.  There was apparently a meeting between Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Netanyahu this morning to discuss some type of expanded government - but nothing has been resolved.  It is too early to discuss any type of resolution and it appears that we are likely to be in for weeks, if not months, of fighting before any resolution is possible.  There are few countries with the ability to influence Hamas - other than Qatar and Iran - and to a much smaller degree, Egypt.  But Hamas has nothing to offer now, other than the return of the prisoners that it is holding.  They have launched a self-defined "war," killed more than 700 Israelis, mostly civilians, and injured more than 2300.  Israel will certainly proceed with a massive response of some sort.

Prisoners and Hostages

This is a very difficult situation for Israel.  The government would like to take every possible step to rescue every single one of the hostages - and hopefully most if  not all of them are alive.  But faced with the potential loss of thousands of additional lives if steps are not taken immediately, the government is faced with some extremely difficult decisions.  We hope and pray that all of the prisoners are returned home safely as quickly as possible.

The Streets

The homeland authority in Israel is advising people to remain in their homes and stay near bomb shelters.  Many stores, especially supermarkets and pharmacies, are still open - but many other places are closed.  Highways are fairly deserted.  The airport is still operating but fewer and fewer airlines are flying to Tel-Aviv.  As of this morning, El Al, Turkish Airlines, Emirates and a few others were still flying.  But most European, North American and Asian airlines have suspended their service.   On a personal note, I now have no idea when I will be back in Canada.  I was supposed to fly this Thursday.

Psychological Impact

This attack has had a severe psychological impact on Israelis across the country.  With such high numbers of casualties, almost everyone seems to know someone who was killed or injured.  Beyond that, there is a sense of disappointment, anger and frustration at the apparent failure of  intelligence, preparedness, operations and defence.  Further, the Prime Minister and senior leadership continue to be AWOL.   Prime Minister Netanyahu has not held any press conferences or taken other steps to address the public - other than one brief statement.  None of his senior cabinet ministers have filled in.  For many Israelis, it feels like the ship is moving along without a captain.

Israelis are glued to news stations to stay updated and most of the news is not very good.   So that also has a significant impact on people.

That being said, the military leaders have shown great determination.  Other Israelis, including Prime Minister Bennett and other former members of the government have been actively assisting the army, visiting people in hospitals and helping in other ways.  Despite the current lack of political leadership, there is a real sense that Israelis will pull together and deal with this massive threat.

Summary

I do  not plan on doing this every day - and there are numerous news sources out there for up-to-the- minute updates.  Since today is Canadian Thanksgiving, work issues were less pressing and I had a bit of time.  I will try to provide further comments and updates in the coming day though that will depend on being  able to find the time.   

We thank everyone for the warm notes of support and kind wishes.  We are hoping for a quick but decisive end to this situation though we are realistically prepared for something that will take a while. I wish everyone all the best and hope and pray for the safety of our soldiers and civilians in this difficult period.

 

Hamas Launches Surprise War on Israel from Gaza

It is very difficult to write anything today but I think it is important to provide some kind of update from my perspective, here in Israel.  There is still a great deal of uncertainty - about everything that happened yesterday, about what is happening today and what is going to happen in the coming days, weeks and even months.  I am not going to be able to address much of that uncertainty but here are a few of my comments.  Whatever I am writing now is based on information as of Sunday morning, October 8, 2023 at  noon - or 5 a.m. EST.  Information is likely to updated throughout the coming days and beyond.

The Hamas Surprise Attack

As you have probably heard, Hamas, the terrorist group that runs the Gaza trip, launched a major surprise attack against Israel yesterday morning.   It was Simchat Torah in Israel - the day of "Rejoicing of  the Torah" - one of the happiest days on the Jewish calendar, when observant Jews are in synagogue - singing, dancing and marking the end of the fall Holy Day period (which runs from Rosh Hashanah until the end of Sukkot).

From available information, the Hamas attack was carried out in several different ways.  One part of the attack was to launch thousands of missiles directed at civilian areas across the country.  Secondly, waves of Hamas fighters broke down border fences and crossed into Israel and drove towards 22 different Israeli towns and small cities surrounding or nearby Gaza. Other Hamas groups used paragliders and landed in different locations from the air.  Still others arrived from the sea.

The goal of these attacks was to target civilians primarily and to kill or take hostage as many people as possible.

Some groups of  these Hamas terrorists arrived at a "Nature Party" where hundreds of young Israelis were our partying.  Mostly  teenagers and others in their early 20s.  The terrorists opened fire on these unarmed kids and killed many of them.  Several were injured, many severely.  Some were taken captive by Hamas and apparently brought back to Gaza.  There is video footage of some of the murders, some of the hostage taking - posted by Hamas personnel.  We don't yet know exactly how many people were killed at this gathering, how many were taken hostage and how many are still in the hospital. Many are missing - and their parents, family members and friends are doing everything possible to try and find them. (Since the time I started writing this, a group of these people was found hiding - more than 30 - who were thought to have been killed or taken hostage - they seem to be fine, physically.  Most of them are apparently foreign workers from Thailand).

Other  Hamas groups went to most of the 22 different towns and cities and began going from door to door, breaking in to homes and killing civilians.  In some of these towns, police and reserve soldiers grabbed their weapons fought back. In one case, a father grabbed his weapon (he was a reserve duty soldier) and killed two terrorists in his living room).  Many police officers were killed in these exchanges. Some people went and locked themselves in their bomb shelters - which have extremely thick,  inside-locking  doors.  Many civilians were killed as well as some soldiers and police officers.  A large number were also taken hostage, again, apparently brought to Gaza.

Some Hamas groups attacked certain military bases - including, in particular, one training base, where several military personnel were killed including at least one new recruit.   

Other terrorists may have hidden themselves somewhere.  We still don't know exactly how many entered Israel,  how many are still here, or what else they have planned.  Israeli official reports indicate that more than 250 terrorists have been killed and many more captured.

As of now, Israeli reports indicate that between 400 and 450 Israelis have been killed, the vast majority civilians. More than 2000 people have been injured, many of whom are still in serious or critical condition. At least 100 Israelis have been taken hostage and brought back to Gaza.

There were three different hostage situations within Israel that took all day to resolve - including one where more then 50 people were being held in a Kibbutz  dining hall.  In another situation, terrorists had occupied and were holding the Sderot police station.  According to reports this morning, all three of those situations were resolved and the hostages were released.

For Israel, this was one of the harshest days Israel has had to deal with in its history.  Some 50 years ago, Israel faced a surprise attack on Yom Kippur.  It was devastating and it was an existential fight for the country.  At the time, Israelis were genuinely worried about being  overrun completely.  The fighting, however, in that war, primarily involved Israeli soldiers fighting against  Syrian and Egyptian soldiers.  Ultimately, in that war, the army prevented large scale attacks against civilians.

In 1948, Israeli also grappled with  an  extremely harsh and difficult situation,  which was also genuinely  existential  - and included attacks on and massacres of civilians.

Yesterday's attack was quite different from those situations.  For one thing, so far, the primary target, initially, has been civilians.  The attack was intended to show Israelis that the army cannot protect them from Hamas terrorists.  Although Hamas  "declared war" on Israel yesterday in an "official statement" - it has no illusions that it can pose an existential threat to Israel.  However, it can and did cause severe damage to civilians, to morale and to Israel's military "deterrence."  

Hamas leaders, over the past few months, apparently met with Hezbollah and Iranian leaders. It may be that Hamas is hoping that this war will be expanded and that Hezbollah and Lebanon from the north will get involved - and perhaps even Iran.  So far that is not the case, but Hezbollah has a vast array of sophisticated missiles waiting in Lebanon and if Hezbollah becomes involved, with the backing of Iran, Israel will face an unprecedented type of war.

How Did this Happen?

Hamas carried out a well planned surprise attack.  However, it would seem that Israeli forces are generally geared up to prevent exactly this type of attack.  There are drone and  satellite patrols along the border fence with Gaza.  There are constant marine patrols in the water aided by satellite and drones. And there is constant monitoring of the airspace.

Moreover, there are countless military bases nearby with soldiers ready to spring into  action. 

One rumour making the rounds alleges that Iran launched a cyber attack and shut down our military intelligence systems at the time of the attack yesterday morning.  I have seen  nothing to corroborate these claims.  In any case, cell phones and other communication systems were apparently still working.

I still do not understand how the army was not able to deploy large numbers of troops, immediately, to the cities and towns that were being attacked. For hours, residents of many of these cities were making calls on their  phones, trying to get military help while hiding and trying to protect themselves from the terrorists. It took several hours for help to arrive. I am sure that this will be the subject of examination and inquiry in coming weeks, months and years.

What Next?

Israel is facing many severe  challenges. There are more than 100 captured Israelis who have been brought to Gaza - and it must be at the highest order of priorities to rescue as many of these people as possible.  They are likely to be dispersed in different places in Gaza and this will be no easy task.  

Israel is still working to ensure that all of the 22 cities that were attacked are cleared of terrorists. From reports this morning, there are still some terrorists hiding in these cities - and some who have travelled elsewhere. Finding and neutralizing all of these terrorists is another one of the highest priorities. 

A third priority is securing the land, water and air  borders with Gaza to ensure that more terrorists cannot continue to enter Israel. The security fence is being rebuilt and large numbers of troops are bolstering the  border.

Beyond  these immediate steps, Israel is dealing with a "declaration of  war" from Hamas and will need to launch a full scale offensive to defeat  Hamas. This may take some time to plan and execute, but we would have to anticipate one of the largest scale operations that Israel has ever seen - likely to be launched in the coming days or weeks, if not in the coming hours.

Loss and Tragedy

TV, radio and social media are filled with footage, photos, videos and stories of loved ones who were murdered, injured and taken prisoner.  More than 350 people have been killed  - including at least one high ranking military commander, a mayor, more than 25 police officers and many sons, daughters, spouses, parents, grandparents, and children. The grief is incalculable - as is the anger, frustration, upset and disappointment from so many Israelis. The hospitals are working around the clock to deal with overwhelming numbers of injured.  People are frantically trying to find out what has happened to loved ones who are missing - and to figure out if they have been hospitalized, taken hostage, or  murdered - or maybe they are still hiding somewhere and their phone batteries have died.

Resolve

I would like to say that we have heard or seen reassuring messages from the current Israeli leadership but generally, members of the government have gone AWOL.  There was a brief statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday - but otherwise nothing. The government will need to pull itself together and show resolve and determination very quickly. Opposition leaders, including Ganz and Lapid, have offered to join a temporary "War Cabinet" with Netanyahu - however, so far nothing has come of it. There is quite a bit of concern that Netanyahu is running a government with a range of inexperienced and incapable ministers - from his own Likud party (from which many of the most experienced and capable leaders have left over the past few years) as well as  from two ultra-religious parties (with no military experience) and one ultra-nationalist party (with limited military experience).

Benny Gantz's party (sitting in opposition) includes several experienced military personnel as well as  other experienced former Likud members.  Lapid's party (also sitting in opposition) also includes several experienced personnel. For the sake of the country, it seems that it would make quite a bit of sense for Netanyahu to try and work with these experienced personnel rather put the country at the mercy of his current incompetent and extremist team, who do not seem to have the capacity or capability to manage this properly.

Personal

We were planning to go to shul yesterday for Simchat Torah.  At 6:30 a.m., we were woken up by sirens and had to go to the bomb shelter.  We don't usually open the TV on Shabbat or Holy Days but decided to do so and see what was going on.  We soon began to see the scale of the attack. The government asked people to refrain from gathering in large groups. The mayor of Ra'anana went from shul to shul, early in the  morning, letting people know about the situation. I think it is one of the only times that I have missed going to synagogue on Simchat Torah other than  due to the Covid outbreak.

A missile landed on the street where one of our family members lives. She was in a shelter and is fine but others were seriously injured and a building was destroyed. Another missile hit and destroyed an apartment where a cousin of ours used to live. The current tenant was in a shelter and is fine - but the place has been destroyed. Another family member updated us - to let us know that one of her good friends - just married last year - was killed in battle yesterday.  

Unfortunately, we are likely to hear many of these stories in the coming days.

Many airlines have announced suspension of flights to and from Israel, including Air Canada. So my status at this time is a bit up in the air. I was supposed to fly to Toronto this week but I will have to see how things develop and what if any flights are available - and whether it makes sense to go. I have some specific occasions that I am hoping to attend as well as some work that would best be done in person. But in the circumstances, my plans may have to change.

I have to add that I saw a completely obscene message from the current Mayor of Toronto, who above all referenced "Palestinian Pain and severe loss of life" in her statement about the attack yesterday. This is the type of statement she puts out on a day on which hundreds of civilians were massacred, many at point blank range, by terrorists?  By way of contrast, President Biden offered his complete support for Israel to take whatever measures necessary to deal with the situation. Prime Minister Trudeau offered a much more "lukewarm" statement condemning the attacks. Israel received more helpful messages of support from France, Germany and several other countries.

Despite Biden's reassuring words, there is quite a bit of concern that the ongoing  arrangements between the U.S. and Iran, including the recent release of large amounts of money, have emboldened Iran to ramp up its support for Hamas and Hezbollah.  We may hear more about this down the road but a policy of isolating Iran and boycotting it  would  be much better for the worldwide fight against terrorism than a policy which in any way bolsters and emboldens this extremist Iranian regime.

I'm not going to add comments about other events and stories at this time as it just wouldn't be fitting. Instead I am simply going to add that we are hoping  and praying for the safety of our soldiers, our security forces - and everyone else - as we head into a very uncertain and challenging period that we have now entered.