Pre-Shavuot 2026 - Eurovision, Pre-Election, Wars and More

Tori Avey's Blintzes

Hello from Ra'anana Israel on this very hot Monday.  It's a lukewarm 28c today (84F).  Lukewarm for late May in Israel.  It probably won't drop too much below this temperature after this week until sometime in October - though there are reports of only 23-25C (76-77F) for a couple of days this week.  I see from the weather reports that Toronto is supposed to enjoy a scorching 27C this afternoon but then cool off with a lovely 12-14C for the rest of the week. 

It is not a long weekend here in Israel.  In fact, Israel never really has long weekends unless they are part of Jewish religious holidays.  For that matter - Sunday was a normal work day (as it always is here in Israel). But since my work schedule is based in Canada - I get the day off today.  Can rest up a bit before watching the Montreal Canadiens play game 7 vs the Buffalo Sabres at 2:30 a.m. tonight. Hoping for the best - and that I will still have a Canadian hockey team to watch in these NHL playoffs even if that means a major disruption to my sleep patterns.

This blog may be a bit of a smorgasbord as there are so many topics to cover. So I will write about whatever I think might be interesting and leave you to decide whether my selections match up with your tastes.  

Eurovision

I have to start with Eurovision, the annual shlock fest in Europe.  As you might have heard, the Israeli singer Noam Bettan, finished in second place with his song Michelle, which he sang in French, Hebrew and English.

Bettan is 28 years old, the son of immigrants to Israel from France.  His family immigrated to Ra'anana (some people say that is only 15 minutes away from Israel - partially because of the high number of immigrants living in Ra'anana from western countries).

Bettan went to high school with a family member of ours - and was known to enjoy the famous chocolate chip cookies made by another family member.  (As they say in Hebrew, those who know, know). ("Hamevin yavin").

In any case, this was the 70th anniversary edition of Eurovision - the annual European song contest which also includes Israel and Australia. Eurovision has been using the motto "United by Music" since 2023 - but this year - the contest was definitely not united.

Despite pressure from anti-Israel activists, the contest rejected efforts to oust Israel from the contest, led by such moral luminaries as Spain (which still hasn't come to terms with its 1492 Inquisition and Expulsion of  its Jewish population).  When the efforts of the anti-Israel coalition failed, five of the protagonists boycotted the contest and withdrew over the issue - Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, Iceland and the Netherlands.  That left 35 countries participating in the contest, of which 25 made it to the final.

Israel's 2nd place finish was the second consecutive runner-up finish for Israel - and Israel's fourth time finishing in the top  5 in the past 5 years.  Israel last won the contest in 2018 with "Toy" sung by Netta Barzilai.  Over the 70 year history of the contest, Israel has won four times.

The contest is known for spring-boarding the careers of many musical artists including Abba, which sang Waterloo in 1974 and Celine Dione who successfully represented Switzerland in 1988 to capture first place.  Dione was not Swiss (she was Canadian of course) but at the time, as long as the composer and lyricist were from the country - the country could engage a performer from any foreign country. I have been waiting for my phone call with the opportunity to sing for Lithuania, Romania or maybe even Montenegro - but apparently Eurovision has since changed the rules and you have be a citizen of the country you wish to represent vocally.  I think it's too late for me to carry the flag for Israel - and the competition is too steep, but who knows, maybe one of our three kids? One day?

Over the past few years, the issue of Israel's participation has created dramatic tension inside and outside of the event venues.  It is true that Eurovision kicked out Russia in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine - which was an arguably unprovoked invasion.  One could argue about geopolitical reasons for Russia's actions but I think it is fairly difficult to argue that this was anything but unprovoked. Ukraine had not attacked or threatened to attack Russia in any way even though Ukraine was looking to join NATO.

On the other hand, Israel was attacked on October 7, 2023 by Hamas/Gaza - which Israel had left in 2005.  Israel was also attacked, simultaneously or shortly afterwards by Yemen, Hezbollah (Lebanon) and groups from Syria and  Iraq, all sponsored and trained by Iran, which ultimately entered the war directly.  More than 1000 Israelis were murdered in these initial attacks, many of whom were civilians and many of whom were tortured to death.  The idea that Israel should be ostracized and subject to bans and boycotts because it responded with strength to these massive attacks is really quite obnoxious. Thankfully, most European countries rejected this call and refused to boycott the contest over the issue.  In fact, the winner of the contest, a singer from Bulgaria, Dara, who sang "Bangaranga" spoke publicly in support of Israel just days before the final. Contrast this with "Nemo" the non-binary winner of Eurovision 2024 from Switzerland, who attacked Israel at every available opportunity.  Sadly, Nemo is probably unaware (or simply hypocritical) about the fact that Israel is probably one of the only countries in the Middle East (if not the  only country) in which they could freely celebrate their sexual identity. Nemo would probably be safer in Israel than many of the other European Eurovision contestants.  

There is much more than can be written about Eurovision - many Israelis are glued to their screens annually on the night of the finals, waiting to see if Israel will finish "on the map" and  demonstrate to the world that it has important cultural and musical contributions to make - even if they are being made as part of a shlocky contest.  

Just one final comment  about it - and that is about the judging.  In the finals, each country has a jury of "professional" judges that award points to 10 other countries - except  their own.  Historically, these professional juries are a cesspool of politics, deal making and shady exchanges.  For example, Cyprus and Greece almost always award each other the highest number of points.  (This year was no exception).  Likewise for the various Scandinavian countries - and Britain and France often enjoy the same arrangements.  Historically, the "professional" juries rarely provide high numbers of points to Israel, no matter who is singing.   But the the other half of the voting  comes from audience votes - phone  in and on-line voting.  There, Israel  has done exceptionally well, even in the countries that boycotted Israel this year.  

So after all of the judging this year, Israel was in 10th place or so after  all of the "jury votes" had been announced.  As the audience vote came in, Israel moved up higher and higher.  Six different countries awarded Israel the highest number of votes from audience voting (including France, Germany and Switzerland) but only one country's "professional jury" gave Israel the maximum votes - and that was Poland. After Israel's audience total was announced - Israel moved up to first place - and held on to that spot until the very last country's votes were announced - Bulgaria - which then overtook Israel by a significant number.

Going in to the contest, Finland had been the heavy favourite.  Voices in Finland were calling for Finland to bar Israel from participating next year if it had won (the winner hosts the following year's contest).  But Finland lost - and Bulgaria  has no stated intention of banning Israel.  It will be interesting to see if the five boycotters continue to boycott next year or they will re-join or try to re-join the contest.

For now, I have taken Spain, Iceland, Slovenia, Ireland and the Netherlands off my travel list.  I hear that Iceland is quite beautiful the right time of year and I enjoy Amsterdam.  Slovenia wasn't really on my list anyways and Ireland has been a bastion of anti-Israel hatred for some time now - so I wasn't planning to visit Ireland anytime soon either.

To conclude on Eurovision - (I have written much more than I intended to write), here are two more videos for your enjoyment.

First of all- here is Noam Bettan's song Michelle in Yiddish, with the name changed to

"Rachel". Thanks to some AI apparently.

Finally - this a version of "A New Day Will Rise," Israel's entry to last year's Eurovision sung by Yuval Raphael as a duet with Noam Bettan.  In other words - Israel's back to back 2nd place finishers at Eurovision - singing together. This was recorded in March 2026.  Enjoy.  

I particularly enjoy this duet - and I hope you are able to access these videos from wherever you are in the world.

Israeli Politics

As you might know, Israel must have elections before the end of October, 2026. This means the current Knesset will be dissolved shortly  and a date will be chosen.

The ultra-religious parties have indicated they would prefer a date two days before Rosh Hashanah - or in between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. They are betting that the highest number of their constituents will be available to vote those days.  Secular Israelis are often out of the country on those dates - since it is an extended three-week holiday break for many companies - or at least a period with a much lighter schedule.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is pushing for the latest possible date - at the end of October.  Supposedly, this would give him more time to try and improve his support (which has been fading) or to negotiate a plea bargain deal and leave office permanently, perhaps coupled with a pardon from the Israeli President.

As of now, Israeli parties are still putting together their final slates of candidates.  Prime Minister Netanyahu still seems to have a plurality of votes but not a majority. Predictions for Netanyahu seem to  range from 25 to 36 seats out of 120 Knesset seats. Right now, former Prime Minister Bennett and  former Prime Minister Lapid are running together as a joint slate and are polling in second place with 24 to 26 seats.  The key is that in almost all of the polls, Netanyahu's government seems  to be polling at between 49 and 52 seats out of 120 down from their current number of 68 seats. If these polling numbers turn out to be accurate, that would be a dramatic  loss of 16 seats for Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

On the other hand, the opposition parties, not including the Israeli Arab parties (which have usually avoided joining the government), seem to be polling the range of 56 to 59 seats.  According to these results, the opposition would need the support of either the ultra-religious parties or the Arab parties in order to form a government - unless the numbers move by a few seats.

We could well wind up with a stalemate but it is too early to make predictions.  The final slates have not even closed yet and there could be dramatic changes still to come in terms of the field of candidates.

What is certain is that Israel will not elect a "left" or "far left" government.  If Netanyahu loses, it will be something similar to Hungary - where we would see a change of leadership - and changes on some big issues, primarily domestic, I think - but not too many immediate dramatic shifts.

I do think that if the opposition were to win, we would be likely to see less corruption, a dramatic difference in the tone of public statements, and a reinvigorated respect for the judicial system in Israel.  It is too early to say what kind of policy changes we will see vis-a-vis the Palestinians, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.  But Bennett is campaigning on a variety of domestic policy changes including the availability of civil marriage in Israel, enlistment for all Israelis including the ultra-religious and respect for the judicial system.  So the public discourse would certainly be quite different with new leadership.

The War/s

Israel remains, unquestionably, in an ongoing state of war on several fronts, despite some different cease-fire agreements.

Israel is fighting most actively against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Lebanon has continued to send attack drones, missiles and rockets to Israel, with its most  potent weapon being drones that are not using gps systems.  Several Israeli soldiers were killed over the past two weeks fighting in or near Lebanon.

Captain Maoz Recanati z"l was killed on Friday.  He was a 24 year old Golani soldier due to marry his fiancee next month.  20 year old Staff Sargeant Negev Dagan Z"l, another Golani soldier, was also killed on Saturday in Southern Lebanon.  I picked these two only because they were the most recent fatalities.  In total, since October 7, 2023, more than 1,150 Israeli  soldiers have been killed and 850 civilians have also been killed.

Although Israel would love to have a peace deal with Lebanon and many Lebanese would like nothing more - Lebanon is effectively being held ransom by Hezbollah, an Iranian backed terror organization, that controls large swaths of Lebanese territory, including large sections of Beirut.  The Lebanese government needs to be able to control Hezbollah and prevent it from attacking Israel.  If it cannot do that, and Hezbollah continues to attack Israel, Israel has no choice but to continue to fight Hezbollah. Israelis are hoping that Israel will soon reach a real peace deal with Lebanon and  citizens of both countries will be able to tour each other's countries.  But for now, this still seems like a distant dream.

In Gaza, there continues to be some ongoing fighting, though access to news is somewhat limited.  Recently, the current commander of Hamas was killed in fighting.  Ultimately, Hamas continues to try to reassert its control over Gaza while Israel and some other partners seek to disarm Hamas and create the conditions for different leadership in Gaza.  It is unclear to me when or how an end to the fighting will be reached with Hamas / Gaza but I am hoping that someone will soon figure out a way to resolve this situation.

With Iran, Israelis seem to believe that a new round of fighting is imminent, possibly starting today, tomorrow or over the next few days. This was the view of a the Russian ambassador in a recent interview, apparently, and seems to be the view of many  commentators.  Although Trump has massive American military might in the region, he has been making threats for weeks and seems to have little domestic support for renewed hostilities with Iran. However, the Iranians do not seem to be interested in accepting the conditions that Trump is offering for a full permanent cease fire. Iran is acting as if it holds all of the cards - or most of them. As I write this, there was just an announcement that the U.S. has rejected Iran's latest "proposal" to end the war.

Both Trump and Iran seem to be playing chicken.  Most commentators that I have heard claim that neither Iran nor the U.S. is interested in renewed fighting.  However, the current state of affairs is nothing less than an embarrassing loss for the United States - with no significant, demonstrable gains other than a major degradation of the Iranian military forces.

Netanyahu is pushing for renewed hostilities because he understands that none of the war aims have been achieved. Iran still has its enriched uranium, its missile program and its proxies, even though some of the proxies have been degraded to an extent.  There has been no regime change and Iran continues to threaten several countries in the region - the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel and any countries relying on the use of the Hormuz Straits (other than Iranian allies). From the Israeli government's perspective, Israel and the U.S. should try to "finish the job" and achieve some or all of their war aims.

Trump is of course facing massive domestic pressure, a decrease in popularity, an increase in oil prices and a sense, I would say, that these "war aims" may not even be achievable.  Trump is concerned that renewing the fighting may not put the U.S. in a better position and he may simply wind up deeper in the quagmire.  For Netanyahu, he would prefer somewhat of a "Hail Mary" pass.  If the fighting can be renewed and completed before election time, he might be able to claim that the whole operation was victorious because of his leadership.  However, if things go awry, and that is at least reasonably likely, Netanyahu might slide even further in the Israeli polls and might need to consider taking a plea bargain deal rather than standing for re-election.

For now, there is a great deal of uncertainty here in Israel, since renewed fighting could break out at any time and throw the whole region into disarray.

Travelling to Israel

Most foreign airlines have still not resumed their normal service to Israel, though some are scheduled to do so at the end of May or the beginning of June.  El Al prices are very high and space is limited. Arkia, Air Haifa and Israir are also flying out of Ben Gurion airport, but let's just say that I am not that excited about flying on any of those airlines.

Last month I flew via London.  (El Al to London and Air Canada from London to Toronto).  The El Al planes were the very nice Dreamliner 787s with screens.    Similar to the planes that Air Canada uses.  Smooth, quiet and a bit more spacious than some other planes.  El Al even rolled out a proper boarding system this year, starting in January 1, 2026, replacing its chaotic "everyone can board now" with an orderly board by zone process.  And in London, yes, it worked.  Boarding was orderly, organized and reasonable. The food was decent, the entertainment screens had a wide variety and the flight was quite nice.  Too bad El Al is not a member of one of the major alliances as the "Matmid" program for frequent flyers is still horrible. But otherwise, this was quite a nice trip.

I should also note that the UK now uses pre-travel visas - ETAs - which you need to arrange before you fly.  But once you have done so, Border control processing is quick and  efficient. It was great.

Flying back, I flew via Zurich.  Zurich border control was less organized and took much longer.  I spent a day in Zurich (which is only a 10 minute train from the airport) but that is for another blog perhaps

From Zurich, I flew El Al.  This was the "good old-fashioned El Al."  No real boarding zones were used, the planes were older and noisier, the food was terrible and there were no personal screens.  Of course, it is the only show in town flying from Zurich to Tel-Aviv so I suppose El Al can afford to run whatever service it feels like running.  

A large contingent of Israelis held a prayer service just before take off - though it was around 6 p.m. and they were having a big fight trying to decide whether to pray Minchah (afternoon prayers) or Ma'ariv (evening prayers). In the end the Ma'ariv voices won out  - even though it was too early to count the Omer (Observant Jews count the Omer for 50 days starting on the second day of Pesach (Passover) after dark each day.)  You can't count the Omer until after the sun goes down.

In any event, surely with all of the daveners on the plane, I could take comfort in the enhanced safety of the plane, assuming that these prayers had reached the intended recipient.

Shavuot

I am going to wrap this up by noting that we are celebrating Shavuot on Thursday night May 21st and Friday May 22nd this year in Israel (it is only a one-day holiday here).

Following in the footsteps of my late grandmothers z"l and my dear mother (who hasn't made blintzes in a while), I will be making a decent sized batch of cheese blintzes to be served as part of a dairy meal, best eaten with sour cream. A shout out to Tori Avey's recipe site which has some excellent blintz recipes.  As well as all kinds of other recipes.  I have tried many of them and they are really terrific.  Her Rosh Hashanah honey cake, made with chopped granny smith apples, is excellent - but I digress.

Some Jews observe the tradition of eating dairy on Shavuot - and Israel's dairy industry loves that tradition.  We went  out to buy some cheeses today to fill the blintzes and it was a zoo in the dairy section of the supermarket.  But we went early.  I am sure it will be completely insane by Wednesday - if there is anything left on the shelves. A few years ago, we left things a bit late and had a very difficult time finding some cheese products that we needed.

There are others who maintain that you cannot properly celebrate a  Jewish holy day unless you actually eat meat on the holy day but we have always been part of the first school.  (Some extended family members of mine here in Israel are decidedly in the second group).

The tradition is to study Torah all night on Shavuot, which is after all, a holiday marking the receipt of the Torah  by the Jewish people.  What goes best with dairy and Torah studying?  Cheese cake and White or Rose wine of course - and both of those will be served at our Erev Shavuot dinner even though I am not a big cheesecake fan myself.

I have lots more  to write - perhaps I will do a bit of a travel blog about a number of sites we recently visited in Israel.  But for now,  I am going to call it a day.  This has taken quite a while to write and I am running out of gas (and we all know how expensive gas is these days).

Wishing everyone a Chag Shavuot Sameach and looking forward to seeing many of you soon in North America.

Are We Nearing the End of the US/Israel-Iran War?

As I am writing this article, I am listening to the latest Israeli news reports.  There is speculation that there may be a cease fire between Israel and Lebanon - perhaps temporary - perhaps longer term - but we are still waiting for details.  At the same time, there are reports that the U.S. and Iran are making progress towards some kind of broader cease-fire deal - which may initially include a further temporary cease fire between the U.S. and Iran to see if a deal can be concluded.  I will come back to this.  So far - lots of talk but no confirmation that there is a deal.

Even though the war is perhaps the most important  topic - I decided to go in reverse order this time and write about sports and other items first.  So if you  do not like reading my sports updates you can skip down below.

Sports

First of all, as a Canadian, I have to start with ice hockey news.  The Israeli national ice hockey team won Division IIB of the IIHF (International Ice Hockey Federation) Tournament.  Israel finished first in this round robin hockey tournament by beating a variety of ice hockey luminaries including Kyrgyszstan, Iceland, New Zealand, Bulgaria and Chinese Taipai.  The clinching game was a 5-2 win over Iceland on April 12th.  The tournament's leading scorer was Hanadz Malashchanka with 12 points over 5 games.  Israel will now move up one level to the Division II Group A.  In case you are wondering - that would still put them two groups behind the "real" international hockey powerhouse teams.  But for Israel, this is a big and exciting win.

In other sports news, Israelis are filled with pride over the performance of Deni Avdija, who scored 41 points last night in an NBA game to help the Portland Trail Blazers make it into the playoffs.  Israeli news reports that this will be the first time an Israeli player has played in the NBA playoffs.  I have not verified that - and I am not really an avid basketball fan - but Israelis are super excited about this.

Personally, I am getting for a view sleepless nights as I try to watch a few Montreal Canadiens' playoff games and maybe some Edmonton  Oilers games as well.  I will be back in Toronto late next week, so if either or both teams make it through, I will get to watch some games from North America at saner hours.

Random Thoughts

I needed to renew my Israeli passport.  I am used to the Canadian system of filling in a detailed form, going and getting passport pictures somewhere and other steps. In fairness, Canada has simplified things a bit over the years - if you are simply renewing a passport - and you already have one that has not expired yet - or has expired only recently.  Here in Israel, I booked an appointment on-line simply by providing my national ID# - and confirming which type of passport I wanted. I then paid on-line, and booked an appointment. I showed up at the office in Tel-Aviv ( I was a bit late because of the horrible Tel-Aviv traffic but nobody seemed to mind).  I was shuffled over to a machine - that took my photo, took my finger prints, checked my ID card and current passport - and - ta-da - I was done.  No need to talk to anyone, take photos in advance or take any other steps.  Quick and easy.  Now I just need to wait to  collect it. It is supposed to arrive by courier within 4 to 6 weeks.

Travelling back and forth between two countries, I sometimes lose perspective about how different things can be culturally on different sides of the world. I felt it quite a bit today when I walked into a crowded coffee/baked goods shop.  People were calling in their orders from all over the shop - "hey Kobi - make me a double latte - no foam" - and the different staff working behind the counter were simply taking the orders and trying to keep up.  "No problem sweetie, did you want that for here or to go."  This was quite a far cry from a Starbucks, Second Cup or even a Canadian  branch of Aroma (an Israeli chain) where there is an orderly line and an evident ordering system in place. Now in fairness, if you walk into one of the bigger chains in Israel, like Arcaffe (one of our favourites of the Israeli chains), the experience is much more like being in North America.  But in a smaller local shop - well this seemed like much more of the Israeli experience and it is very different from the North American experience for sure.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah

Yesterday was the Day of Commemoration of the Holocaust and Heroism in Israel and around the world.  In some years, I have dedicated my whole blog simply to that day.  I was not able to write a blog yesterday or the day before - so I decided to include some comments here.  That is not intended to diminish the importance of the day.

On Monday night, we decided to watch the national televised ceremony rather than attending the in-person commemoration in Ra'anana.  Given that we still do not have a cease fire in place with Lebanon, there are still some restrictions in place for public gatherings.  Prime Minister Netanyahu went to significant lengths to politicize the day by drawing comparisons between the Iranians and the Nazis.  Aside from  his speech, there were some powerful musical performances and wreath-laying ceremonies.

In Israel, on Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, the whole country comes to somewhat of a standstill. All restaurants and shops close early in the evening  (this year on Monday) and the TV stations show Holocaust related programming exclusively for a 24 hour period - other than news. At 10 a.m., there is a two minute siren throughout the country.  Israelis stop what they are doing - and stand at attention.  Even those who are on the highway stop their cars and get out to stand at attention.  It is very powerful.

Commemoration of the Holocaust and its six million Jewish victims is of paramount importance in the Jewish State of Israel - as is the recollection of the bravery of those who fought the Nazis and the remembrance of those, including non-Jews, who went out of their way to help save Jewish people.  For Israel, so much of the messaging is tied to the central idea that only having a strong Israel could have prevented this horrible event - and is the only way to protect the Jewish people today - especially in the face of raging anti-Semitism in so many countries.

We watched a variety of documentaries - including "One Flight For Us."  This documentary looks back at the failure of the U.S. army to bomb the railways or death camps, despite flying over different  camps repeatedly.  It includes interviews with U.S. politicians, historians and  others looking back at historical records to assess what the U.S. and its allies knew about what was going on in Nazi Germany, when they knew and what they might have been able to do.  The movie also ties that in with an arranged fly-over carried out by Israeli fighter pilots, who flew over Auschwitz symbolically to represent a very different reality.  This type of movie demonstrates the Israeli viewpoint that  although the message of the Holocaust does have universalist warnings and messages, it is ultimately the targeting of and impact on the  Jewish people that is most significant for us, as Jews.  I note, parenthetically, that this difference between a universalist message and a particularist one is evident if one contrast visits to Yad Vashem (the Israeli Holocaust Museum) versus the National Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C., for example.

For  the  Canadian side of things, I participated in a Law Society of Ontario Zoom program dealing with the latest developments in the area of hate speech in Canada - including a recent criminal conviction for a Holocaust denier.

I have written more about this subject in other  blogs - and they are searchable using my index if you would like to read more of my thoughts on this.  As is the case with so many Jewish people, it is a subject very close to my heart - as we have many ancestors and extended family members who were victims of the Holocaust as well as some who were survivors or the descendants of survivors.

Justice, Justice You Shall  Pursue

In case you did not recognize it, that is the approximate translation of "Tzedek Tzedek Tirdof" which appears in the Torah in the book of Dvarim (Deuteronomy).  So I adopted that line as my intro for a few comments on legal proceedings in Israel.

The Israeli Supreme Court, yesterday,  in a nine-person panel, heard a petition to remove Minister Itamar Ben Gvir from his role as cabinet minister.  The argument, in part, was that he had breached various duties, obligations and laws, and was eroding the independence of the police force by appointing more than 1,200 loyalists (Ben-Gvir's numbers) to key positions without the proper jurisdiction to do so.  I am not going to get into a detailed  discussion of this now - but it raises all kinds of issues  as to the boundaries of judicial jurisdiction weighed against political prerogative and authority.  Various members of the Likud Party and Ben-Gvir's party appeared at the  hearing and tried to disrupt it until they were thrown out of the hearing by the court.  As well, there were dozens of demonstrators outside of the courthouse arguing that the vary fact that the Court was hearing this type of petition was inappropriate and an  overreach by the court. 

At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu was granted a further two week adjournment of his criminal hearing due to "security issues."  Netanyahu is becoming quite concerned that if the war ends and he has not been pardoned, his trial will move along at a much faster clip and might even be headed towards a verdict.  I have discussed this in the past and I won't belabour it other than to say that it is my view that it is highly unlikely that he will be able to emerge from this unscathed if it goes to a verdict.  In my view, he will either get his pardon, reach a plea bargain deal or find some other way out of it before a verdict is ever handed down.  This is simply because he and his team know that there is overwhelming evidence on some of the counts (otherwise the case would not have proceeded in the first place) and their main strategy is to delay the process and ensure that it never gets to a verdict.

War Update

Israel is still involved in ongoing wars on several fronts, the most active being the battles with Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.

As you know, the U.S. and Iran are still in the midst of a two-week cease fire period and are actively negotiating to try to find a way to end the conflict.  Some of the latest reports suggest that Iran has agreed to turn over its enriched uranium, if not to the U.S. then to an agreed upon country, and the U.S. has agreed to release millions of dollars in frozen funds.  At the same time, the U.S. has also increased its military contingent in the region, either as an increased threat to Iran or as part of a plan to restart the war.  I am simply not in a position to assess what will happen next week.  Certainly from the direction that things appear to be taking, it is looking likely that there will either be a further extension of the cease fire or an outright deal. The deal will certainly include Israel as well.

The situation with Lebanon is somewhat different.  Lebanon and Israel have no reason to be involved in hostilities. Israelis believe that the majority of Lebanese would like to have a full peace deal with Lebanon.  However, approximately 30% of Lebanon is Shi'a Muslim - and some of that population supports Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran - a terrorist militia operating throughout Lebanon to do the bidding of Iran, attack Israel (and/or Syria if called upon) and give Iran power and influence in the country. Hezbollah does not control the government but has often been part of it.  However, it is a powerful extra-governmental militia, funded, armed and supported by Iran - that has attacked Israel, both in October 2023 (when Hamas attacked Israel) and now in the current war after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran.  In fact, Hezbollah is still firing rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones and other weaponry at Israel, aiming mostly at civilian populations.  

Iran tried to insist that any ceasefire included a cease fire in Lebanon.  However, Israel is not interested in leaving large numbers of armed terrorists on its border without a commitment from Lebanon to reign in these terrorists and prevent attacks.

Despite all of this, Israeli officials met with Lebanese officials for one of the first times ever, face to face, to discuss these issues and try to work towards a resolution.  For Israel, that would mean disarming Hezbollah and getting an assurance from the  Lebanese government that no attacks on Israel will take place from Lebanese soil.  The concern is that the Lebanese government is probably too weak to implement that type of deal.  So this one continues to be tricky and it remains to be seen what type of arrangement can be negotiated.

In the meantime, we have had one family member stationed up in Southern Lebanon/ Northern Israel, who thankfully returned today for at least the next week or so. So many Israelis from across the country are currently serving in reserve duty -  in Gaza, near the Lebanese border and  in all kinds of other positions.

Next Week

Now, after observing Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, we are headed towards Israel's Memorial Day for Soldiers and Victims of Terror (one of the saddest days of the year) (on Monday night and  Tuesday) and then Israel's Independence Day (Yom Haatzmaut) (one of the happiest days of the year) on Tuesday night and  Wednesday.  All of these events are taking place while a cloud of certainty still hangs over the country, waiting to see what will happen with the unresolved wars.

But no matter what the situation is, most Israelis will find a way to light up the barbecue and get together with friends or family on Tuesday or Wednesday and celebrate the modern state of Israel's 78th anniversary - even if that means being in and out of shelters and protected rooms in between the chicken wings, kebabs and skewers.

Israel Attack on Iran June 13 2025

Since my last post just before Shavuot (May 30, 2025), I have been accumulating material for my next blog.  I was planning to cover a number of topics including flights and various things going on in Israel.  Perhaps towards the end  of this blog, I can add in some of those items.  But given the events that have taken place since last night, I thought that there was a pretty compelling need to put this together as soon as possible.

Israel's Attack on Iran

As you know by know, Israel launched at major attack on Iran last night at approximately 2:30 a.m. last night (Israel time).  The attack is still ongoing so the results are not yet clear.  This appears to be the  start of a major war but it remains to be seen how Iran will respond and how long this will go on. I wanted to write about a few aspects of this.

As you know from reading my blog (hopefully), it is not my goal to write "propaganda" or "hasbara."  I try to sift through news that I pick up from various sources and use that to discuss particular situations.  I do pick up quite a bit of information from Israeli sources since I regularly watch and listen to Israeli news and radio channels.  But I do also pick up news from a variety of other sources on different ends of the spectrum so I try to provide some amount of balance.

I want to tackle a few issues.

Why Attack Iran?

There are several reasons for this attack.  The Israeli government has also announced a series of war "objectives" and then there are other speculated reasons.  I will try to cover some of this.

1. Historical Threats from Nuclear Program

The Iranian Ayatollah regime has been explicitly threatening Israel with destruction for many years.  Iran has been building a nuclear bomb program and indicating in no uncertain terms that the plan is to attack and destroy Israel with it.  Israel has been facing this clouded existential threat.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been warning for years that Israel would not permit Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and attack Israel with it.  U.S. Presidents, including Obama, Biden and Trump have all stated that they would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.  Obama sought a diplomatic route.  Trump, in his first term, dismantled the diplomatic route.  On this file, Biden did nothing.  The result was that Iran has been racing towards finalizing its nuclear program - and according to the IAEA, just this week (the world's nuclear watchdog), Iran was not complying with its commitment to nuclear safeguards and was on the verge of producing nuclear weapons.  Given Iran's repeated threats, Israel had to view this as a real, existential threat.

2. Iran has been fighting Israel since October 7, 2023

It is quite clear that the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 including the Hamas massacres of civilians, kidnapping of hostages and destruction of homes and business was supported and funded by the Iranian regime.  The Iranians trained the Hamas terrorists, in many cases at training camps in Iran and funded them.  But Iran also armed and activated the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria on Israel's borders, who have also been fighting with Israel since October 7, 2023.  Further, as you know, Iran has been supplying the Houthis in Yemen with long range ballistic missiles to fire at Israel regularly.   Although Iran has only attacked Israel "directly" twice since October 7, it fired hundreds of ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles on both of those occasions.  So although Iran has not been directly involved since Oct 7 with attacks from its own territory, it has been running a four-front war against Israel and Israel's response, until now, has been relatively minimal as against Iran itself.

3. Perceived Opportunity

The success of Israeli operations against Hezbollah, a key proxy of Iran, has left Iran with a vastly reduced proxy threat to  Israel from the north.  Moreover, Israel's responding attacks on Iran in April 2024 apparently caused significant damage to Iran's defence forces.  The political situation in Syria has minimized the perceived threat of Syria  becoming involved in the  conflict. Given  the combination of these factors, the Iranian closeness to completing its nuclear program and a more sympathetic U.S.  government, Israeli government officials determined that a narrow window was open for this attack.

Israeli Statements and U.S. Position

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated today that he gave the order to carry out the attack in November 2024.  He stated that the original date was supposed to be in April 2025, but the operation was pushed back.  According to Netanyahu, with the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian leadership redoubled its efforts to complete the nuclear bomb program and were threatening to use it.  Netanyahu claimed that he has been trying to get support for this type of attack since 2012 but did not have the political support, either domestically or from the U.S.  Implicitly, he has suggested that the "green light" only came after Trump's election in November 2024.

President Trump and other U.S. leaders have stated that the U.S. was not involved in these attacks - but knew about them. First of all, I don't really believe that Israel went ahead with this operation without active support, approval and encouragement of President Trump.  It seems likely that President Biden was not willing to authorize this type of operation.  Secondly, President Trump's tweets have underscored the message that he was threatening Iran that something "terrible" would happen if Iran did not agree to a nuclear deal that was acceptable to the U.S. Thirdly, the U.S. is still calling on Iran to drop its nuclear program, come to the table and reach an agreement.  But for Iran, it is hard to  imagine that this looks like an inviting offer at this point. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the date, June 13, 2025, was selected months ago and that President Trump was kept fully apprised.

Preliminary Reports

From reports to date, from across the world, the Israeli operation to this point, has been devastating.  A large number of senior Iranian military and political leaders have been eliminated including the head of the army, the head of the air force, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and others.  Estimates are that more than 30 military and political leaders were targeted and killed.

Israel has been attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, missile depots and other military operations.

Just now, Israeli news is reporting that Iranian missiles are "self-destructing" all over the country - and that is being compared to the "beeper" operation with Hezbollah. I have no way of verifying these reports at this point, but they are fascinating.

It is unclear how long this operation will take but Israel appears to be targeting all of the different Iranian nuclear facilities including those that are deep underground.

Stated Objectives

The Israeli government has claimed that the war has several objectives.  First of all to significantly degrade the Iranian nuclear  program and set it back several years.  Secondly, to destroy much of the  Iranian ballistic program to minimize Iran's ability to attack Israel (itself or by using the Houthis).  Thirdly, to target the Iranian military leadership to force Iran into a change of position with respect to its ongoing war against Israel.  

Other Objectives

The Israeli government has stated that it is not attempting regime change in Iran.  However, Israel has targeted as wide range of Iranian political and military leaders.  Moreover, the current regime, much like Hamas, has stated that its long range goal is the  destruction of Israel.  Israelis do not believe that to be the general sentiment of  the Iranian people and generally believe that if there were a regime change in Iran,  Iran and Israel could have a peace deal in place.  Israelis point to the fact that under the Iranian Shah, Israel had peaceful relations with Iran. It seems to me that Israel (perhaps with the help of the  U.S.) will do everything possible to enable the Iran people to rid themselves of this oppressive regime.  A stable, free, more secular Iran would create a dramatic opportunity for long term middle eastern stability.  It remains to be seen  whether this is realistic or possible.

Cynical Objectives

While I did suggest in a previous blog that Netanyahu would do everything possible to avoid his ongoing trial (and current cross-examination). there does seem to be fairly wide bi-partisan (or multi-partisan) support in Israel at this time for this attack - especially with the latest reports of how close Iran was getting to deploying nuclear bombs to be used for offensive purposes. Israel has been fighting Iran now indirectly since October 7, 2023 with Iran paying a very small price for all of the destruction and damage that it has caused to Israel. I think the Israeli leadership came to a determination that the only way to end the war with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Houthis, was to get "behind the curtain" to the real decision maker and orchestrator of the war against Israel.

What's Next

Israel is continuing its attacks across Iran as I write but is also now anticipating a massive Iranian response.  I guess we will have to stay tuned and see what happens.  Hopefully, Israeli defences, supported by the Americans, will be able to repel any counter attacks with minimum casualties and damage.

Other

The Israeli national airport, Ben Gurion Airport is currently closed to all traffic.  The civilian authority  has ordered all schools, restaurants, clubs, concert venues and other public places of large gatherings closed including synagogues and other places of worship. Airlines from across the world have announced indefinite cancellations of flights to and from Israel.  

I am currently in Toronto with a flight scheduled for the 22nd of June, via Athens.  It remains to be seen whether that will be possible. I have real concerns that anti-Israeli sympathizers, including protestors, rabble rousers and terrorists, will target Jewish institutions across the world - even here in Toronto and I hope that the police and security forces will stop up the level of security for these places.

I am going to leave my discussions of other issues for future blogs.  For now, I hope that this situation is resolved as quickly as possible - hopefully with a stable end to the entire war, a return of the hostages, a peace deal with a new Iranian regime - and a completely changed Middle East.  Okay, it's okay to hope for a lot.  But  given the changes in Syria and Lebanon, we have every reason to believe that change is possible and within reach.

Shabbat Shalom

Cease Fire, Hostage Release Deal and Other Updates

It has been a while since my last post - I think about three months.  So for all of you who have been waiting for a monthly (or weekly) blog - sorry about that.  I am just two busy.  But much has happened since October 2024.  At different times, I had thoughts of writing a blog - and some ideas - but I just couldn't get around to it.  As it is - I have a very packed schedule today - but I thought I would see how much I could put together in one hour or maybe two.

Hostage Deal/ Cease Fire

As you might have guessed, the first thing I have to write about is the apparent deal that Israel has reached with Hamas - as negotiated with Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. and others.  In case the Canadian readers are wondering - Canada does not seem to have played any role in these negotiations other than cheering on Hamas, backing anti-Israel U.N. resolutions etc.,

There is nobody on the Israeli side that I have heard that will say this is a "good" deal.  It is not. The apparent deal is staged over a 42 day period - by which time a total of 34 Israelis will have been released - though we don't know for sure how many of them are (or will be) alive.  Rumours are that the number is 23 living hostages.  In exchange, Israel will release some 3,000 Hamas terrorists, many of whom are serving jail sentences, will allow a dramatic increase in aid coming into Gaza and will pull back troops from many areas of Gaza - and eventually leave Gaza altogether.

Although the deal is highly problematic, it seems highly unlikely that Israel will get a better deal any time soon - and continued fighting will doom the 34 hostages - as well as hundreds of soldiers who will die in further fighting.  It is unclear that this continued fighting will wind up getting Israel a better deal.

If we have a chance to save the lives of these 34 hostages - and maybe more - there are still 98 being held, even though we do not know how many are still alive - then the State of Israel has an obligation to its citizens to save as many as possible.  Especially since we do  not have an alternate plan to either save them or end the war.

There are many different stories emerging about the negotiations - and it is really hard to say what is true and what is not.  Different sources from inside Israel and from the U.S. have indicated that a deal was almost completed in May 2024 but Netanyahu's government added additional conditions at the last  minute.  Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, both ministers in Bibi's government, have taken credit for "preventing" the deal at that time - which effectively means - taking credit for minimal gains in Gaza, the deaths of many Israeli soldiers and the deaths of many of the hostages who may have been released.

At the same time, Israel's accomplishments in Lebanon and Syria - and even Iran - were all significant and seem to have put Israel in a much better position geopolitically.  According to other reports, it is Hamas that was refusing a deal between June and  now - and has only now agreed to a similar deal because it has been weakened considerably.

I cannot give any authoritative answer to these questions. However, if there is any chance of saving these lives after so much time in captivity, I think it is the time is right for us to do so.

On the cynical side - many reports suggest that it was Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who broke the logjam this week by essentially reading Bibi the riot act and telling him that the war had to end now. It certainly seems to me that earlier reports are correct - that Bibi did not want to end the war early - at Trump's request - because it would be viewed as helping the Democrats with the election.  Of course there is no proof of that - but the timing does speak for itself in my view.  

The interesting point here is that Bibi and his far right cohorts - Smotrich and Ben-Gvir - were convinced that Trump would more or less let them do whatever they wanted when he became President - and "finish off" Hamas (whatever that might mean).  However, instead, Trump apparently told them, through his envoy, that the war had to end now - and this would be the end of the war.  Trump has indicated that he wants to move ahead with peace talks with Saudi Arabia - which means some kind of permanent arrangement for the Palestinians.  This is all terrifying to Ben Gvir and Smotrich who were hoping to build settlements in Gaza  and are adamantly insisting that they will be able to continue the war after the 42 day cease fire period.

All of this being said, there are still reports that the deal has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet or signed by both sides yet, even though it is supposed to take effect on Sunday at Noon (Israel time).  I believe that the deal will proceed but I guess anything can happen between now and then as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir try to stop the deal. (As a late postscript - Bibi has now apparently  delayed the start of the deal to Monday instead of Sunday - with no apparent reason - other than - so that the release of prisoners coincides with the inauguration of Mr. Trump....)

The Future of Bibi's Government

Two of Bibi's coalition partners, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, are threatening to leave the government if this hostage/cease fire deal goes ahead.  However, it is important to listen to them closely.  Ben-Gvir says he will officially leave the government but he will not vote against it or bring it down and will still support it from the outside.  Smotrich says he will leave the government if the army does not return to Gaza to fight some more - after the 42 day deal is complete.  Effectively, neither of these two coalition partners are promising to bring down the government now - they are only making idle threats at this point for political reasons.

Ultimately, the far-right parties have no interest in an election any time soon.  They are in key positions of power - controlling the police, the budget, and many other ministries.  They could risk all of that if an election were to be held, which is not supposed to take place until October 2026, unless the government falls before then.  I don't believe that they are about to cause the government to fall.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are also making a great deal of noise - and are continuing to demand a blanket exemption from the army.  It seems increasingly unlikely that this government will be able to get that bill passed - with growing opposition from Bibi's own party,  internally.  However, I don't believe that the ultra-Orthodox are interested in an election at this time - since they are enjoying a golden era of massive funding for their yeshivas, rabbinical institutions and other programs - which could face huge cuts after an election.

There are other two other major sources of tension.  Some of the far right extremists in Bibi's coalition -  Simcha Rotman and Yariv Levin - would like to bring back the "judicial reform" plan to the centre of the agenda.  Their logic is that the war is almost "over" and they should use this opportunity, while this far-right government is still in power - to take over the judiciary and implement changes that will favour their agenda.  This is creating tension within the Likud party itself - as even some of the Likud members cannot stomach these proposed changes.  It is hard to say what will happen here though I would imagine that some of the changes will go ahead and some will be "delayed."

The other source of tension is Bibi's criminal trial which may now proceed at a faster pace if the cease fire deal is implemented. I am not going to get into that too much at this point - other than to mention that he has had a few days of "examination-in-chief" - which means giving evidence that he and his lawyers have tailored for his benefit. Included in this testimony, Bibi gave evidence that he signs "all kinds of paperwork everyday and often has no idea what he is signing."  In fact, he testified that even today - he still does not understand some of the key deals that he signed (including deals  that allegedly favoured Bezeq - to the tune of hundreds of millions of shequels - in exchange for favourable publicity).

Suffice it to say that Bibi's cross-examination on all of this - if it ever occurs - should be fascinating - especially for lawyers....who greatly enjoy watching these types of proceedings.  From where I sit - it seems hard to imagine that Bibi will go ahead with the cross-examinations - rather than cut some sort of deal before they occur.  Given that his starting point - is "I had no idea what I was signing" - and that is normally evidence that might be adduced in a cross-examination not an examination in chief, it can only get worse in a cross-examination.  I have no idea where this will all end up - but I have predicted all along - and continue to maintain  - that this case will never go to a verdict.  Either a plea bargain deal will be reached at some point - or Bibi's coalition partners will succeed in somehow legislating an end to the trial.  I think the former is more likely but that remains to be seen.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, it has been incredibly difficult to get to Israel since October 7, 2023, with most airlines, including all of the major U.S. airlines and most of the European airlines, cancelling their service to Israel.  Only El Al and a few other Israeli airlines have continued to fly and earn record profits.

With the announcement of the pending deal, Lufthansa has just announced that it plans to resume flights very shortly.  I imagine many other airlines will follow suit.

An Air Canada representative told me that Air Canada was set to resume flights on April 1, 2025, assuming that this deal goes ahead and remains in place.

All of that is great news for those looking to fly to Israel.  Hopefully tourists will start to come back - and hopefully all of these guests that want to come for our family wedding will be able to get here easily and safely.

I am still planning to return on my next flight through Rome but perhaps my next flight back to Israel will be on an Air Canada direct flight - if they begin earlier than April.

Yemen and Iran

We had to get up at about 2:30 a.m. two nights ago to run to our "safe room" because of a missile alert.  Apparently the Houthis had fired some ballistic missiles at Israel from Yemen.  The Houthis have always said that they will stop firing missiles when the war with Hamas ends - but I do not know if Israel will agree to stop taking any action against these Yemeni terrorists.

Israel is also pushing for approval from the incoming Trump administration to conduct a joint operation and take out the Iranian nuclear program.  Certainly, it seems that Israel would prefer a regime change and an opportunity to try and work with a new Iranian regime and build peace between the two countries.  Israel is still hoping that this will be the outcome in Lebanon and in Syria with the destruction of much of Hezbollah.   It also seems that Trump would prefer to avoid a military confrontation with Iran.   Netanyahu has always indicated that it is the centrepiece of his government's program - to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This war has made that objective even more pressing.  

Nevertheless, it seems to me that Trump will try to use diplomatic means rather than military to deal with Iran and Israel will not be able to do anything alone.  This all remains to be seen.

Eurovision

For the past few years - Israel has used its reality TV singing contest - "the Next Star" to select Israel's choice for the annual Eurovision contest.  The show is now down to five contestants.  Unlike some years, there is no clear favourite and it should be an interesting finish next week (or the week after).  A very interesting story is that one of the favourites is an Israeli Arab Christian - named Valeri Hamati. She is extraordinarily talented though not "head and shoulders" above the field. It is particularly fascinating because some people have very strong views about having a Christian Arab represent Israel on the world stage at an international singing contest.  She almost lost in the last round but made it through to the final five.  I think that she would be a great contestant though I am not sure that she will win - and if she doesn't  - I would  not necessarily blame it on her background.  I would say that it is a close field.  If she was clearly above  the other contestants - it would have been really interesting to see.  But her last performance was less than earth-shattering and at least two of the other contestants delivered excellent presentations.  We will know soon enough.

Movies

I am trying to do my best to catch up on all of the Oscar nominated movies before the Oscars.  Of course, the list of nominations is not out yet - so we can only speculate.  But I have seen three movies that are almost certain to be on the list.  Anora, Wicked and, most recently "A Real Pain."

I watched A Real Pain this week.  I thought it was really well done.  It is the story of two first cousins who join up with a tour of Poland and its concentration camps. There are many themes that really resonated with me (as someone who has ancestors who were killed in these camps).  The movie covers a variety of themes - including the manner in which a tour guide should lead this type of group (we have a family member who is a tour guide as you may know), the effect on people of visiting the death camps, the interaction with Polish civilians, and issues of depression and mental illness.  I know it probably sounds like a real downer from that description but I would strongly recommend it.

I am not going to discuss the others for now - I have to leave some material for future blogs, though I really enjoyed Wicked and would have loved to go to one of the "sing-along" performances of it.

Sports

Not related to Israel at all, since sports events are not really followed here nearly as much as in North America - other than major soccer events - like the  World Cup etc., but nevertheless I have to add just a couple of comments.

Since I grew up (since the age of 12 anyways), closest to Buffalo, I have always been a Buffalo Bills' fan.  As you might know, Buffalo played in the Super Bowl four years  in a row - and  has the distinct honour of being able to say that it lost all four times.

But here we are - with the Bills playing this Sunday - still having a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.  They are playing a very tough opponent - the Baltimore Ravens - but I will be watching the game starting at 1:30 a.m.  on Sunday night.

I doubt I would actually want to go the game in person and sit for 3 hours in -15C weather - even if I were in Toronto and could get to Buffalo.  It  is much more comfortable to fire up the barbecue in 21C weather and watch in optimal conditions.  But I am hoping for the best.

I might also stay up and watch the NCAA football final on Monday night - but I don't have a particular horse in that race - other than to cheer for Ohio State on behalf of my family members who live in Columbus.

Conclusion

At this point, my conclusion has to be that I am hoping for the return of all of the hostages - and that they will be able to get the support they need to return to their lives. They will need medical, psychological, emotional and all kinds of other support after this devastating experience but we are hoping for the best for them.  Israel will also have to endure a large number of funerals as the bodies of many dead hostages are likely to be returned.  This will be very traumatic.

I am also hoping for the safety of our soldiers - who are generally recruited civilians from the Israeli population called to serve their country. To date, a total of 840 Israeli soldiers have been killed including 405 in combat operations after the start of the war.

Of course I would also like to see an end to this conflict but we will require a much more significant change. There cannot really be an end to the conflict unless the Palestinians have leadership that is committed to a non-violent long-term solution to the conflict.  If Hamas remains in power - and that seems to be the case with this current deal - it is hard to imagine that we will see any kind of long term peace any time soon.  But maybe with big changes in Lebanon and Syria - there is a glimmer of hope that we will see some major changes in the region.  If changes do occur - and are attributable to this war - that may well be viewed as a long term gain from the war - despite the terrible cost that it exacted from Israelis and Palestinians.

Wishing everyone peace and the best of health.

Oct 7 Anniversary and Other thoughts

One Year Anniversary of October 7, 2023

It is the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, which began at 6:28 a.m. on October 7, 2023.  That day, more than 3,000 armed Hamas terrorists crossed into Israel in 4x4s and on motorcycles and went on a murderous killing spree.  They attacked the nearby communities, murdering and raping residents, burning down homes and businesses, and taking hostages back to Gaza.  They also attacked a music festival - the Nova Festival at which more than 4,500 participants from around the world were attending a trance music festival.  They murdered more than 400 concertgoers and injured hundreds more.  In total, more than 1,200 Israelis were murdered and more than 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages.  It was the worst single day for the loss of Jewish lives since the Holocaust.  There are still 101 Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, though we do not know how many are still alive.

To commemorate this day, there are many events scheduled across Israel, including two different commemorative events this evening.  One is being organized and run by the government, specifically Minister Miri Regev.  Another event is being run by the families of the hostages and families of the victims.  Perhaps not surprisingly, it is the second event that will have the star-studded line up of Israeli performers, volunteering their time, to lead mournful songs for the Israeli public, though their event will take place starting at 7:15 p.m., followed by the "official" Israel event at 9:30 p.m. (Israel time).

Last night, we went to a special event at the Peres Center in Yafo, Tel-Aviv.  There is a huge photographic exhibition of photos by photographer Ziv Koren, aimed at memorializing and preserving the memory of one of the greatest disasters in Israel's history. We walked around looking at the exhibit and then went upstairs to see a special screening of the movie "We Will Dance Again" - a documentary about the massacres at the Nova festival - as told through the words and experiences of some of the survivors.  It was chilling and powerful.  Numbing and paralyzing, in fact.  The movie was fairly graphic and does feature footage, in some cases taken  by Hamas terrorists on their cell phones - and in other cases by victims or witnesses on cell phones that were recovered - of brutal murders of defenseless victims.

The evil displayed in the film is simply boundless and frightening.  There were some incredible stories of bravery and heroism.  For example, Aner Shapira, who was a member of the Nahal military unit.  He was attending the Nova Festival as a civilian.  He and a whole group of others hid in a protective shelter.  Hamas found the shelter and began throwing grenades into the shelter.  Shapira grabbed and threw back 7 live grenades before they could explode in the shelter.  The 8th one exploded and Shapira was killed. But 7 of the people in the shelter managed to survive and they believe that this was at least, in part, due to the heroic actions of Shapira.

One year later, there are still more than 100 hostages being held by Hamas, dead or alive. The war with Hamas is still raging, though Hamas has suffered enormous damage.  Israeli estimates that at the start of the war, Hamas had approximately 40,000 fighters spread among its various units.  Hamas has not differentiated in its reports of casualties between fighters and civilians but Israeli officials maintain that a significant number of those 40,000 fighters have been killed.  In other words, any  publicized Hamas numbers of casualties, which are  from the "Hamas Health Ministry" include large numbers of fighters, though we do not know exact percentages.

Israel has destroyed many of the Hamas-built tunnels in Gaza and has severely damaged the Hamas forces.  But the hostages have still not been returned and the fighting still continues. Hamas has not yet surrendered or been defeated - and the hostages have not yet been freed.  But Israel is hopeful that this will happen soon.

Lebanon and Iran

Meanwhile, fighting in Israel's north has now become the main focal point for the Israeli army.  After all, Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon began firing rockets at Israel on October 7, 2023, at the start of the attack - in "sympathy" with Hamas.  This was a concerted and deliberate attack, orchestrated by Iran.  Unfortunately for Hamas and fortunately for Israel, this did not turn out the way that Hamas had planned it.  Hamas was apparently aiming to take over several Israel towns and cities including Ashkelon and Ashdod. Hamas was also hoping that Hezbollah and Iran would join the war fully at the outset.  

As you might recall, the United States sent immediate and massive military reinforcements, which undoubtedly helped deter Hezbollah and Iran from widening the war at the outset.  But although that may have deterred Hezbollah and Iran from widening the war at that point, it did not deter Hezbollah from firing rockets, sending drones, firing RPGs and other forms of attack at Israel.  Since October 7, 2023, tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from their homes in the north and have not been able to return.  Israel has absorbed massive damage throughout the north - in cities like Kiryat Shemona - all the way to Safed and Tiberias.  Homes, businesses, vineyards and other agricultural areas have been attacked, burned and destroyed.

For many residents of Israel's north, the recent start of the counterattack against Hezbollah  in the north was long overdue.  Northerners have felt abandoned.  Unable to return home, to their businesses, their lives in the north - they have begged the Israeli government to take action.  The government and the army seem to have made a strategic decision to try and fight one major front at a time - and have only now turned to dealing with Hezbollah in the north.

As you may know, the fighting is now raging in Lebanon between the Israeli army and  Hezbollah.  The main goal is to reach some  kind of agreement whereby Hezbollah will agree to move its forces away  from the border  - and there will be some mechanism for enforcing that deal.  The hope is that Israel's northern residents will be able to return to their homes. In 2006, a deal like that was reached - but it was not followed by Hezbollah - which built tunnels and stationed troops on Israel's border starting just after that deal. So far, Hezbollah is not wavering - and is indicating that it will not agree to such a deal - even though much of its leadership has been destroyed in attacks  by Israeli forces.  

So Israeli forces may well be in for a lengthy and  difficult battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon until a deal can be reached that will allow residents on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border to live in peace.

Of course, in the midst of all of this, we are waiting to see how and when Israel will respond to the massive Iranian attack - during which more than 180 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel.  Although many were shot down by Israeli defence systems, it is apparent that many landed - although we do  not know the details of the damage that was caused.  

There are discussions of which targets Israel will go after in Iran - missile storage silos, the Iranian nuclear program - the oil fields.....or the political leadership.  And when this response will occur.  We have heard President Biden ruminating about which targets Israel should not hit (though who knows whether this is all part of some kind of deception) and we have heard French President Macron warning Israel about responsive actions that it might take.  Perhaps Israel has already decided - and put together a plan - or perhaps they are still working with the U.S.  and other countries to decide on the right  approach.  I have no idea but it seems all but certain that there will be a significant retaliation by Israel in the coming days.  Perhaps, this will help nudge the Iranian people towards changing their leadership and freeing themselves from the fanatical ultra-religious government that controls their lives.  

Whatever Israel does chose to do, it is clear that it will not be targeting civilians.  There is no equivalence between the Hamas attacks on Israel and the responses from Israel.  Israel will pursue military targets, those responsible and facilities used for supporting the attacks against Israel.  Even though this has meant many civilian casualties in Gaza, Israel has not targeted civilians deliberately. Civilian casualties in a war always occur - and especially where the fighting forces are embedded in schools, hospitals and religious institutions.  But there is a massive difference between civilian deaths that occur during fighting between military forces - and terrorists that run around shooting unarmed civilians, burning down houses, raping and dismembering victims.  I haven't seen any credible suggestions that Israeli forces have been involved in  this type of activity.

So Israel is not about to attack Iranian civilians.  In fact, in the long run - I believe that one day, when Iran unshackles itself, Israelis believe that we will have good relations with Iran and the Iranian people - perhaps even the Lebanese as well - if Lebanon and Iran can succeed in changing their governments.

For now, however, we are sitting somewhat on edge, waiting to see what type of action Israel will take, how successful it will be and what will happen afterwards.  

Yesterday, there were reports of an earthquake in Iran.  I couldn't help but wonder - can Israel create an earthquake?  Was this the famous Israeli agent "Rita Tadama?" (like the agent "Eli Copter" who was alleged to have killed the Iranian leader or the agent "Moti Rola" responsible for the beeper attacks). Another theory, that I am writing in an updated version of this article, is that Iran was testing nuclear weapons.  But I digress. 

Something is likely to happen soon and we will have to hope that it leads to worldwide pressure (on all of the players, not just Israel) for a full, global deal - one that returns the hostages, moves the Hezbollah forces back from Israel's border, ends all of the fighting and leads to a broader discussion of how to deal with Gaza and the West Bank in the long range. Stay tuned.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, there are now very limited options for getting to Israel.  El Al, Israel's national (though private) airline, continues to fly and earn record profits.  Israeli carriers Israir and Arkia are also flying and a handful of foreign carriers.  This morning's paper reported that there are flights available to Romania - but that flights to closer destinations - such has Athens and Cyprus are now costing upwards of $700 for a one-way flight.

Most other airlines have cancelled or postponed their service.  All of the Star Alliance carriers have stopped flying as have the carriers of the other major world alliances.  

To get here this time, I flew to Rome on Air Canada and then took an El Al flight from Rome - one day later.  So I had to "suffer" in Rome for a day.  I visited "Flour, Farina e Cucina" a Kosher dairy restaurant in Rome - wandered the city and had some delicious gelato.  The next morning, I got on the flight from Rome to Israel with one of the few remaining "reasonable priced" tickets.  Somehow, I was chosen for an upgrade to business class on this three-hour flight.  So I enjoyed a full Israeli breakfast and a cappuccino on the flight - even though there was no entertainment system or trappings of business class that you might get on other airlines.  

One of our family members travelling to the U.S. was supposed to fly on Austrian Airlines shortly before the holidays.  The flight was cancelled at the last minute and he was offered his money back.  But he needed to get to the U.S.  So we pushed and pushed and they put him on a route via Athens on Aegean Airlines.  Just days after he left, Aegean Airlines cancelled all flights to Tel-Aviv.  So we are not sure how he will get back after the holidays but perhaps things will change for the better by then.  We have other friends who have had to cancel flights - or are hoping to get back to Israel somehow.  The only reliable option right now is El Al - from somewhere in the world.  Everything else is questionable.

Diversions

Through all of this, we managed to watch the much discussed Netflix Romcom - "Nobody Wants This" about an interfaith romance between a rabbi and a non Jewish woman.  The main characters are outstanding - compelling, empathetic and interesting.  But, on reflection, the show is somewhat problematic.  I have read many of the different reviews about it and I would agree with two of the primary criticisms.

First of  all, the rabbi in the show is depicted as an incredibly empathetic, decent person - but not really committed to any  Jewish practices or rituals.  He is probably an outstanding family counselor, teacher and listener - all of which are important traits for a rabbi.  Yet, even though everyone knows he is a rabbi - he doesn't seem to follow anything.  He  drives and goes out to restaurants and pubs on Friday nights, leaves his congregation in the middle of services to pursue romantic interests - and eats just about anything - so it seems.  Those around him, including his mother, are portrayed as equally blasé and hypocritical about religious practices.  So perhaps it is not a surprise that he is so attracted to someone outside of his faith. Sure he makes some nice speeches about the importance of religion and his culture and heritage - and his chosen career and calling - and perhaps - he really is reflective of many Reform and Conservative rabbis, especially in the U.S.  But mostly, I tend to doubt it (even though I know of at least two real life stories that seem fairly close to this one).  I would think that if his religious devotion was really that important to him, he would behave differently.

Another major criticism that has been levelled at the show is the way that the Jewish women  are portrayed.  Almost universally - domineering, sexless, controlling, and boring. In contrast with the fun, exciting, non-Jewish, mostly blonde women.  In this repressed world - it is easy  enough to see why the rabbi would be so drawn to the world of excitement.  But it is a very negative portrayal of Jewish women.  One critic suggested that it channeled Woody Allen's Annie Hall in that respect - and there is something to that.  The repressed nerdy Jewish male character looking for excitement by finding the blonde, exciting, non-Jewish, sexually liberated character.   

Perhaps this is how the writer Erin Foster - views her experience as someone who converted to Judaism and married a Jewish person.  Foster had been writing scripts with her sister - much like the protagonist in the film - and may view the Jewish community through the lens of Reform practice.  

Overall, I would say that I quite enjoyed much of this show - though there was a fair bit of cringe - and, ultimately, I am just not convinced about many of the scenes or about the show's ultimate message.  But that may be because I might be considered a bit more to the traditional side of the spectrum.  (Though not too far over).  But it is quite a bit of food for thought in my view, even if there is also quite a bit of fluff and some distastefulness.

The other diversion I wanted to mention is that I recently acquired a board game (one of my major hobbies as you might know) called "Ezra and Nehemiah."  Over the course of the game, players are trying to rebuilt the second Temple in Jerusalem, teach Torah lessons, bring sacrifices to the Cohanim - and take other actions to acquire the most points.  I have been trying to convince my board game group in Israel to try it but we haven't managed to play it yet.  Hopefully we  will get to it shortly.  In case you are wondering what we have been playing - I will mention a few - though it is unlikely you will have heard of them unless you are really interested in the "Euro Board Game" industry.  Brass Birmingham, Trickerion, Ark Nova, Lisboa, Scythe, Kanban.  These are a few of our favourites.  You can read all about them on the site BoardGameGeek.com.  I believe that Brass Birmingham is currently rated as the most popular game in the world on that site.  Most of these games (if not all of them) can be played on Shabbat and are fairly challenging.  But they can take several hours to learn - and several hours to play in many cases.

Rosh Hashanah and  Yom Kippur

We are now in the midst of the "Awesome Days" - the 10 days of Penitence in between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.  On Rosh Hashanah, which we observed on Thursday and Friday - we heard the Shofar and reflected on our past year and on the coming year.  This Friday night and Saturday we will observe Yom Kippur - where I will lead our local Kol Nidrei service - and the next day - the closing Neilah service - at a friend's backyard  with about 50 of our nearest and dearest.  As an aside, I should mention that I am blessed and proud to have a family member leading Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur services at Hillel houses in the U.S. this year - and that is pretty exciting.

One of the most poignant prayers it the centrepiece of both the Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur services - the "Unetaneh Tokef" prayer - in which we actually recite, explicitly, the various ways that people might die in the coming year.  And we hope that through prayer, repentance and good deeds, we will somehow change our fate. Reading that prayer - while considering what happened to so many of our people over the past year - is chilling and difficult.  

And following Yom Kippur - we will be  approaching the holiday  of Sukkot  - which is known as the "time of our happiness." It ends with the festival of Simchat Torah (the day of Rejoicing of the Torah) - which is usually marked by dancing, drinking, singing - and all manners of festivity.  But the Hamas attacks were carried out, quite deliberately, on Simchat Torah last year.  

How do we deal with this?  How can we be "happy" on such a terrible anniversary?

I attended a lecture by Rabbi Shai Held recently - who has written a book called "Judaism Is About Love."  He spoke, in part, about this very challenge.  And he noted that the Jewish people have faced so many horrific events over the years - the destruction of both of our Temples in Jerusalem and our exile from Israel, other exiles and massacres throughout the centuries - including the Spanish Inquisition and Exile, the pogroms in Europe, the Holocaust and so many other tragedies.  And yet, we have, over the years, exhibited a special resilience.  A will to live - and a will to live in a way that emphasizes love rather than hatred - music, togetherness, family.  Rabbi Held noted that only 6 days after Tisha B'Av - the most solemn day of the Jewish calendar on which we commemorate the destruction of the Temples - we mark "Tu B'Av" the day of romance - and the Jewish equivalent of "Valentine's Day" - or something close to it.

In Israel - we commemorate Yom Hazikaron one day - Israel's day of remembrance for soldiers and victims of terror - and the very next day - starting at sunset - we celebrate Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day. So the need to find a way to commemorate the very difficult days but still celebrate and rejoice in life - is one of the key messages of Judaism - as explained by Rabbi Held.  And it is something that I have heard from many soldiers and civilians in Israel over the past year - even those who have lost love ones.

As I mentioned at the outset - I saw the movie "We Will Dance Again" last night - and it was this topic that was raised with the survivors at the end of the movie.  And almost all of them said quite clearly - "I will  dance again."  That theme has been engraved on necklaces that many in Israel are wearing - "We will Dance Again."

And so with that, I hope that this Jewish New Year will bring a year in which the war ends, the hostages are returned to their homes safely, Israelis are able to return to their homes in the south and the north, our soldiers can return home safely and we are able to implement some sort of lasting peace deal.  And that Israelis and our neighbours, who want peace - will have many opportunities to dance again. Shana Tova.

Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.