Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.

Edge of War with Hezbollah? July 2024 Update

Majdal Shams

I was planning another pot pourri blog touching on a  range of topics - including some distractions - like a visit to a winery - but, as you might know, circumstances have changed quite a bit here now since yesterday. I will still add in a few other topics - but I start with what is most urgent.

Hezbollah Attack on Majdal Shams

Hezbollah launched a rocket attack yesterday on the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, which is populated by Druze Israelis.  As you might know, the Druze are Arab Israelis, but not Muslims.  They serve in the Israeli army, speak Hebrew and actively support the State of Israel, while maintaining their own closely knit communities and religious practises.

The rocket attack from Hezbollah yesterday was an Iranian made rocket, carrying more than 50kg of explosives.  It slammed into a soccer field where a group of children were playing soccer - and killed at least 11 kids (several more are still in critical condition) and injured more than 30 others.  The soccer field was right next to a playground.  Almost all of the injured were kids between the ages of 10 and 20. One family lost four of their children in this attack.

Murdered Children of Majdal Shams

Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel in all kinds of ways - using rocket attacks, RPGs, drones and other weapons.  Israel has responded but in a relatively restrained way.  There have been several reasons for the restraint.  Israel has, of course, been concerned about opening an all out war with Hezbollah which has tens of thousands of Iranian-made rockets, and thousands of drones - ready to be fired at Israel.  The U.S. has been pressuring Israel to avoid escalation.  Israel has been trying to focus on the war with Hamas first.  And Israel and the U.S. have been trying to avoid an all out war with Iran (the main sponsor and supporter of Hezbollah), which could drag  in several other parties -  and spiral out of hand, throughout the region and other areas.

The residents of northern Israel, including the Druze and other communities, have all been clamouring for Israel to take decisive action in the north, even at the risk of further escalation.  Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from the north and are living in the centre of Israel and other areas.  Hundreds of homes have been destroyed as well as all kinds of other buildings, businesses, agricultural areas and other sites.  Yet, the Israeli government has kept the military action to a relatively restrained level even in the face of all of these attacks.  For Israel's northern residents, the situation is outrageous. They wonder what would happen if even one of these types of attacks targeted Tel-Aviv.  They feel that they have been treated as second class citizens and abandoned by the the government and the army.

But this massive and murderous attack on a large group of children is likely to be seen as the last straw by the Israeli government.  Hezbollah has tried to deny that they fired the rocket - but the Israeli military has identified the type of rocket and noted that only Hezbollah has this type of  ammunition. I don't know what would happen if Hezbollah were to issue an apology and state that the rocket missed its target and that they regret the loss of life. (Spoiler - highly unlikely). Perhaps that could lead to some type of negotiations. But so far, Hezbollah has doubled down and is warning Israel of even more attacks. Hezbollah is not the type of group to apologize and back down even after attacking a large group of children.

The Israeli war cabinet is meeting at 4 p.m. today (Israel time) and then there will be a larger cabinet meeting at 6 p.m.  I expect that the Israeli response will be significant though I have no idea, of course, exactly what targets they will attack in Lebanon and/or Syria (where Hezbollah also has a large number of bases).  It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will absorb the Israeli response without a major escalation - or whether this will quickly escalate.  Israelis are being told to get their shelters ready, to stock up on water and other provisions and to prepare for a major war. Canada and other countries are warning people to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. Hard to say how long the Beirut airport will be fully functional.

Israel at the Olympics

Israel has sent 88 delegates to the Paris Olympics, its second largest delegation ever.  The athletes have been subjected to all kinds of threats - including death threats, fake funeral notices and boos when competing.  There is extensive security - far more than at any other Olympic games - it seems - and we are hoping that all of the athletes will be safe.  The Israeli under-23 Men's' soccer team drew a difficult group - with three games to play against Mali, Paraguay and  Japan.  In the first game, Israel jumped out to a 1-0 lead but wound up in a 1-1 draw.  In the second game, played last night, Israel fell behind  twice but came back to tie the score.  The Israeli side was heavily outplayed by Paraguay but managed to keep the game close until the end.  However, over the last few minutes, Paraguay scored twice and went on to win the match 4-2.  Even if Israel were to beat Japan in a major surprise on Tuesday night, it appears that the Israeli soccer team will be leaving the tournament without advancing.  This is only Israel's third appearance at the Olympic soccer tournament in its history, so just being in the tournament has been a major accomplishment.  But the Israeli side was hoping for better results. Israel has some very accomplished athletes competing in judo, swimming, sailing and other sports and we hope that Israel will be able to bring home some medals.

Netanyahu Visits the U.S.

I am  not going to write extensively about Prime Minister Netanyahu's trip to the U.S. or his speech in Congress. There is no shortage of criticism on the Israeli side - that the Prime Minister's timing was suspect and he did not really delivery any accomplishments from this trip.  Some Israelis were hoping that he would use the trip to negotiate and/or announce some kind of deal to bring home the hostages but this was not on the agenda.  Netanyahu flew to the U.S on the newly commissioned "Wing  of Zion" plane that he had ordered a few governments ago.  In the intervening period, Prime Ministers Lapid and Bennett had cancelled the plane order, arguing that it was an unnecessary and excessive expense.  But Netanyahu, travelling in the middle of a war, happily circulated photos of himself and his wife Sara, sitting comfortably at a desk on the plane, all smiles, with a hat next to the Prime Minister saying "Total Victory" in English. This was the first official flight for this plane - a project of Netanyahu's.

While in the U.S., Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to have some fairly uncomfortable meetings with President Biden and Vice-President Harris.  He thanked Biden for his 50 years of support of Israel.  Of course Biden seems very fragile right now and, unfortunately, it is not clear that he was all there to accept these compliments.  Vice President Harris took a different approach. She greeted Netanyahu in a much more "down to business" manner and told him that they had lots to talk about.  She then held a press-conference after the meeting, without Netanyahu, and gave a unilateral statement.  On the one hand, support for Israel does not mean blind support for Netanyahu and his policies.  I can certainly accept that.  On the other hand, the tone was somewhat condescending, sharp and somewhat reminiscent of President Obama's dealings with Israel towards the end of his Presidency.

It may well be that Harris is trying to demonstrate daylight between her policies and Netanyahu's, to shore up her base.  This may be an adroit political move for her in some states.  On the other hand, it may provide fodder for centrists in other states - who may become alarmed that Harris will move the needle too far to the left on Israel issues.  To be more specific, it might help her in Michigan but hurt her in Pennsylvania. There are probably other examples.

Netanyahu's meeting with Trump, of course, was quite different. The greetings did not appear to be super warm - but there was certainly a great deal of political maneuvering both ways.  Trump announced that he couldn't imagine how any Jewish American could vote for Harris in light of her Israel policies.  Netanyahu's plan seems to have been to visit Trump and try to bolster Trump with his implicit, if not explicit, support.  However, this plan took shape before President Biden announced his decision not to run - and before Harris began to close the gap in U.S. polling numbers.  

If the gap starts to decrease further - and if Harris wins the election - Netanyahu may well be in for a very rocky relationship with Harris, perhaps even rockier than his relationship with Obama.  (Assuming that Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister by the time of the election).  At the same time, notwithstanding the support the Trump is receiving from the observant Jewish community - there is no guarantee that Trump's policies will be particularly supportive of Israel.  Trump is very unstable and prone to change his mind about any given policies at any time. If Trump damages the democratic nature of the U.S. (he has already promised to "rip up the Constitution" and this past week told a group of Christian voters that "after they vote in this election, they wouldn't need to worry about voting again."), this will certainly harm Israel and its perceived legitimacy in the long run.  It is in Israel's long term interests that the U.S. continue to be a vibrant, liberal democracy - and that Israel continue to be one as well.  Both Netanyahu and Trump would prefer to take control of their respective supreme courts, have all charges against them thrown out and advance laws and policies that allow themselves to govern unhindered.  Sorry to get too political here - and many of you may disagree with me - but I am trying to blend a variety of voices that I hear speaking in Israel, from both sides - and give a sense of what the Israeli public is thinking.  I think there is quite a split.  Supporters of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and their parties are clearly rooting for and supporting Trump. Many Israelis in the centre and left have very different views. A significant number of Israelis, according to recent polls, thought Biden was a good friend of  Israel's and was very supportive and empathetic towards Israel, though the most recent polls show that Jewish Israelis, overall, have a preference for Trump - by about 48 to 35% according to one recent Jerusalem Post poll. 

Brain Eating Amoeba in the Kinneret

Here is something totally different.  A swimmer in his 20s died last week - as a result of a brain eating amoeba attacking him in the Sea of Galilea - the Kinneret.  This has now, of course, put the fear of God into swimmers in Israel's only freshwater lake.  As if the possibility of a missile attack in the area wasn't bad enough - we now have brain eating amoebae.  Fortunately, only one other case has been discovered - and the victim seems to have survived.  I have no idea what steps the government or health authorities can take to ensure the safety of this lake - but many Israelis are now thinking twice about cooling off in the Kinneret during these prime time swimming conditions. Even some of my family members, who were up near the Kinneret and are not scared of anything (having been through military service) decided not to go into the water (or so they tell us).

Kosher Cell Phone Bills

This is not an April fool's joke.  It is July.  The Israeli Knesset is scheduled to complete its sitting today and go on a break until after Simchat Torah - i.e. until the end of October.  So the governing coalition has been  scrambling to try and pass a range of bills intended to placate Netanyahu's coalition partners.  One of the bills that was passed into law last week - is in this category.  The bill passed was called the Kosher cellphone bill.  It included the creation of a Cellphone Kashrut Committee to oversee the issuance and control of kosher cell phones.  What are "kosher cellphones"?  They are cellphones used by some ultra-orthodox Israelis that do not have internet access and can only be used for phone calls and text messages.  God forbid the ultra-orthodox should carry a device that would allow them to view inappropriate pictures or videos on their cell phones.  They might even see Israeli Knesset members speaking (including some women) or, even worse - they might be tempted to watch videos of women singing.  So the Israeli Knesset has officially handed over control over a large bloc of phone numbers that will be designated as available for "kosher  phones only."  This will prevent wayward Haredim from secretly switching their phones to a smart phone.  Instead they will have to duck into a different store in Tel-Aviv (or elsewhere in Israel) and simply buy a second phone with a new number that they can keep in a an inside suit pocket (which is what most of them apparently do anyways).  Ultimately, this bill is a money making bill for a group of rabbis who will have economic control over a large number of phone numbers.  I am not sure whether, for example, these certified "Kosher" phones will require a special Passover certification - which could mean an additional hefty fee.  In the midst of an ongoing war, a hostage crisis, huge challenges in the north and all over the country, this is evidently a matter of prime urgency for the current government.  As they say in Israel - this is a sign that someone is "disconnected."  I might add that there were plans to try and pass other bills by tonight - including the "Rabbi corruption bill" (as it has been referred to pejoratively) and some other bills that Simcha Rotman has been trying to pass as part of his judicial revolution.  Some of these bills may now be delayed as a result of the security situation with Lebanon.

Canadian Passport Holder Attempts Knife Attack - Shot and Killed by Israeli Forces

As you might have read, a Canadian passport holder, Qawarshi Zakaria Adam, showed up at the Israeli town of Netiv HaAsara not far from the Gaza border.  He had apparently arrived at the Tel-Aviv airport using a Canadian passport, rented a car and headed south.  When he arrived at Netiv HaAsara, he got out of his car with a knife and moved towards some members of the community's rapid response team - saying "you're murdering people in Gaza.."  As he got closer, he was shot and killed by the security personnel.  There is a video of the incident. I saw a range of different captions for the incident - including some of the Canadian media that are happy to  turn this type of incident on its head and somehow accuse the Israelis of doing something nefarious. For the benefit of those considering similar actions, I would strongly suggest that brandishing a knife and threatening Israeli police or other military personnel - in the midst of a war zone - is not a recommended course of action - it is not likely to end well.

I was planning to write about a recent trip that we took to the Clos de Gat winery, which was quite an exceptional  experience. But I am going to save that for another blog.  

Let's hope that a major regional war and crisis will be averted and that this whole war will end soon - with the return of the hostages, an enforceable agreement in the north and some type of stable  agreement that brings many years of peace.  I am not particularly hopeful at this point, but we can always hope.

Wishing everyone the best of health.

Iranian UAV Strike on Tel-Aviv July 2024 and Other Updates

I have put together another blog with a few updates and a variety of issues - since there are so many different things going on here. This is really just a limited snapshot of a few things I wanted to highlight - so I hope you find it interesting and informative.

UAV Attack on Israel

Tel-Aviv was hit today by an Iranian UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), which was launched by the Houthis (a proxy of Iran, operating out of Yemen).  Apparently, at least 5 of these UAVs were launched from Yemen and four of them were shot down by the Americans, from somewhere off the coast of Yemen.  The Israeli military claims that it was tracking the UAV but decided not to shoot it down.  It is hard to understand why this gross miscalculation occurred but the the bottom line is that the military failed to shoot down the threat.

The UAV crashed into an apartment building in Tel-Aviv, just two blocks from two of our immediate family members.  This was around 3:30 a.m.  One person was killed and 8 others were injured, all civilians.  Within a short period of time, as slew of ambulances arrived to care for the injured.  Thankfully, none of our family members were injured though we are obviously deeply concerned about the loss of life of the one victim and hopeful for the speedy recovery of the other eight. 

A military spokesman for the Houthis announced that this attack was "in sympathy with the Palestinians of Gaza" and promised that further attacks would be carried out.  Although Israel is technically in a state of war with Yemen and has no peace treaty with that country - Israel has never previously been engaged in any kind of direct hostilities with Yemen (or with Iran for that matter) prior to October 7, 2023.

This is a crazy situation and it is unclear how Israel will respond. It is obviously completely untenable for the security of Israel to sit back and absorb lethal attacks like this from Yemen without responding.  

The War

As you  probably know, the war in Gaza and the war with Hezbollah in the north both continue to rage on.  There is some sense that the Israeli army is operating in Gaza at a greatly reduced capacity - though there is still a great deal of fighting still taking place in several areas.  Last week, Israel carried a targeted assassination attempt on the life of Mohamed Deif, who is or was one of Hamas' top military commanders - and one of the masterminds behind the October 7, 2023 massacre.  Deif was surrounded by several Hamas military personnel and other top Hamas commanders.  There has been no official confirmation by Hamas or by the Israeli army that Deif was killed but the top commander with whom he was meeting was identified by Hamas has having been among those killed.

Israeli reports have indicated that  somewhere in the range of 15,000 to 18,000 Hamas military personnel have been killed in the fighting since October 7, 2023 - with estimates of the Hamas forces in Gaza running up to 40,000 or so.  Many others have been injured or taken into custody.  

Although the Hamas military has suffered a significant blow, the Hamas leader, Yehiah Sinwar, still seems to view this whole war as a victory for Hamas.  Hamas has managed to tilt the public and political opinion in several countries towards the Palestinians - some of whom have even decided to declare recognition of a "Palestinian State" (without any defined borders).  Sinwar has stated that he would be willing to sacrifice the lives of several hundred thousand Palestinians to achieve his long term goals (presumably as long as he and his family members are not among those being "sacrificed.").

While there are apparently ongoing talks to try and reach some sort of agreement to free the 120 Israeli hostages that Hamas is holding in Gaza and reach some sort of cease fire, there is no reason to believe at this point that a deal is imminent.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's government relies on the support of the far right parties, led by Itamir Ben-Gvir, Betzalel Smotrich and others, all of whom have stated that they will not accept this type of deal.  They are looking for a complete surrender by Hamas - and they compare this to the deal the Allies were seeking when fighting the Nazis in World War II.  Essentially, they are less interested in trying to save the lives of whichever hostages are still alive (possibly 30-60, according to some reports) and more interested in trying to achieve a "complete victory."

There are many in Israel challenging this perspective, including past and current heads of the Mossad, various high ranking military personnel, and a wide range of politicians - even some on the "right."  They are concerned that this "complete victory" may not be achievable, that all of the lives of the hostages will be lost and that there is no plan for what comes next, even if this type of victory can be achieved.

The long and the short of it is that Netanyahu does not seem to be in any hurry to end this war - and certainly not on the terms that have thus far been proposed.  Or at least, he does not seem willing to abandon his coalition partners to agree to a proposal of the type that is currently on the table.

In my view, this is not something that is easy to navigate.  It is clearly in Israel's best interests to do everything possible to save as many of the lives of the hostages as possible.  This has always been an expectation of every Israeli government - and is like a contract with the citizens of Israel.  If there is a deal that can be made that will save a large number of lives - that must be an urgent priority for Israel.

The flip side is that if the deal that is envisioned would allow Hamas to resume importing weapons, underground, from Egypt, Israel will simply face the same types of attacks weeks or months later.  There needs to be a second track that is dedicated to figuring out how Gaza can be run or administered in a way that will not present an ongoing threat to Israel - and which entity will be responsible for that administration.  I am not even sure that there is an appetite for this on the Gaza side of the border - but the status quo is obviously untenable.

The war in the north has also been raging on with daily hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.  Hezbollah has continued to launch all sorts of attacks against cities and towns in the Israeli north and many have been lethal.  Homes and institutions have been destroyed throughout the north and more than 100,000 Israelis are currently displaced from their homes and living in make-do arrangements in different parts of Israel.  Aside from the human cost - in terms of civilians and military personnel who have been killed and injured in the north, the economic damage has also been massive.  For example, many of the wineries in the north have suffered massive damage.  This week a sizeable percentage of the Pelter vineyards were set aflame and destroyed.  Many other wineries have suffered massive damage.  That is just one example of an industry that has paid an enormous price for this war.

Yet the Israeli military response to all of this in the north has been relatively restrained. Israel has stated repeatedly that it is trying to finish the Gaza war first but this has led to a horrible situation for Israel's northern residents who are feeling abandoned.  In this regard, even many of Netanyahu's critics on the left have called for a much greater response from Israel towards Hezbollah, even at the risk of escalation with Iran.  Some have speculated that the U.S. has dictated this policy - to avoid a direct and massive confrontation with Iran - but that is unclear.  For its part, Hezbollah has stated that if an agreement is reached between Hamas and Israel - it will cease its attacks against Israel.  From Israel's perspective, that will only be good  enough if Hezbollah withdraws its forces from the border and agrees to abide by previous cease fire agreements which have required Hezbollah to adhere to a demilitarized zone within a defined area of Lebanon.

The ICJ

Amidst all of this, Israeli TV broadcast some of the proceedings of the ICJ - the International Court of Justice - attacking Israel. Led by a Lebanese judge - the level of bias, irony and pure ridiculousness is, frankly outrageous.  It is in many ways even worse than watching a group of Trump-appointed judges on the U.S. Supreme Court rule that he is immune from most criminal prosecution.  But I digress. 

I won't dignify the ICJ further by spending more time on it - but the whole situation in Israel since October 7, 2023  has demonstrated the incredible double standard and bias to which Israel is subjected on the world stage.  Much of that is attributable to the fact that there are some two billion Muslims in the world and only about 13 million Jews.  But you can be sure that if any other country were subjected to the type of massacre that Hamas carried out in Israel, the type of response would be virtually unlimited.

Imagine, for example, what the U.S. would have done, if 9/11 had killed ten times as many people proportionately - and had resulted in the taking of hostages and  ongoing missile attacks against U.S. territory.  You can be sure that the U.S. would have taken every possible step to eliminate the threat completely. Of course if this type of attack were carried out against other UN luminaries, like  Russia, Iran, China or others, you can imagine what they would do.

Managing in Israel

Medical Issues and Getting an MRI

I have from time to time written about different issues relating to life in Israel.  Some people reading these sections might not be interested at all and some might be curious about how some of these things work in Israel.

As you may know, the Israeli medical system is a universal health care system, similar to the system in Canada but with some twists.  Unlike the Canadian system, Israelis can choose to pay more and see a doctor privately.  As well, instead of a monopoly system, like OHIP in Ontario, there are four or five competing HMOs and Israelis can choose which one they would like to have as their provider.  

The Israeli universal system includes dental coverage, a subsidized pharmaceutical program and  a range of other components.

I recently suffered a bit of leg injury and required urgent care.  The HMO that I use (Maccabi) runs a fractures and urgent care clinic and urges you to attend that clinic for non-life threatening injuries.  If you go to the emergency section of a hospital and you are not actually hospitalized, you can face a "co-pay" of approximately $500 Cdn.

The urgent care clinic conducts x-rays on site but not ultrasounds or MRIs.  So I was able to have an x-ray taken relatively quickly with the good news that nothing was broken.  However, the treating physician recommended an ultra-sound.

Booking this is somewhat centralized - so we were able to phone a few times and find a cancelled appointment opening in Jerusalem the next day (about an hour's drive).  After that, we were assured that the radiologist would provide a report within a  week or so, which was exactly the time it took.

We were lucky enough to have a connection to an orthopedic doctor - which can normally take several weeks to see, if not longer, like in Ontario (unless you want to pay privately).  We were willing to visit late at night and wait two hours in a reception room to see the doctor.

In the meantime, we received the report and the report included a recommendation to book an MRI.  This can take several months to book, unless you can find a cancellation.  But there is a process that is available - which we followed.  You get the approval form from the HMO and then send an email to each hospital's MRI department individually and request an appointment.  We sent out 14 such requests by email  - and - ta-da - managed to get an MRI scheduled for the next day at 1 a.m.  We were told that it could take up to 3 weeks to get a radiologist's report and we are still waiting - but it does seem that if you are willing to travel and flexible on timing - you can get an MRI scheduled reasonably quickly in Israel.  (If you want to pay privately, you can apparently pay about $1,200 USD - which is another option).

Identity Cards And Driver's License Renewals

My driver's licence was due to expire next month.  For renewal of a licence in Israel, the process was ridiculously easy.  You simply go online, pay the fee - and they use their existing file photo of you to renew the licence for a ten year period.  Perhaps on the downside, it was not necessary to do a vision test, a health test or any other kind of check. I'm not complaining - since my new licence is on the way - but it was even easier than renewing a licence in Ontario which is really not that bad. And it was about $200 Cdn for a 10 year renewal.

Renewing a vehicle permit is much more rigorous.  You have take your car to a testing centre, each year, and have it pass a test in order to renew the permit.  This is a full test of all aspects of the vehicle - brakes, lighting, steering, exhaust, you name it.  The line-up at these testing centres can be quite long.  Our car apparently had a lighting problem - where the front headlights were  insufficiently intense.  We were told that there was a "recall" on our vehicle for this problem and the dealership should fix the problem for free - even though we had just recently gone for full service at the dealership.  So we went back to the dealership - and after some back and forth - they finally agreed to change the lighting  as part of the recall.  Then we had to go back to the testing centre - and wait in a  line again (a slightly shorter line for follow-up visits) and get retested.  But it all worked out.  Overall, much more time-consuming than renewing a licence - but this probably explains why all of the cars on the road in Israel are in such great shape....(If you are not laughing, you are overdue for a visit here).

Israelis also have to have and carry around a "National Identity Card" which serves as a combination of an SSN/SIN and/or a photo ID that can be used instead of a drivers' licence.  You would not normally think that this was not something that would expire - but I was advised that Israel is moving to a fully biometric system and that my current ID would expire in January 2025.  If I didn't renew mine - I would be left without an identity....

So I went online to find a date to book an appointment and found a date in mid-September.  But of course there are new cancellation dates released every day as long as you are flexible.  So we found an appointment the next day and drove up to Hadera (about 45 minutes north) for an early morning meeting.  I had my old ID card - which is a photo ID - but that is apparently not enough for the clerks.  I also needed to answer a whole pile of questions -  my parents' first names, my wife's parents' names, my kids names, the date of  my anniversary, the year we arrived in Israel - and a few others.  I managed to pass (turns out that I really was who I said I was....) - and then posed for a new photo and was assured that my new identity card would be in the mail within three weeks or so.  Obviously not nearly as efficient as renewing a licence but perhaps the ID card is even more important in Israeli society.  Of course I am comforted in knowing that I will not lose my identity.

I probably have several other anecdotes that you might find amusing - but I have to save some material for future blogs.

For now, as with my past blogs, I am continuing to hope for  the safe return of all of our hostages, the safety of all of our military and other security personnel, an end to this war with some type of viable solution in place for long term peace  and my general best wishes for health and safety for all of us.  Shabbat Shalom.

Blog from Israel - March 2024

I have had a look and it has been about three months since  I have written a blog.  So I thought it was time for an update.  I plan to cover a range of topics - not necessarily with significant depth - but there are so many things going on here that I thought it would be worthwhile covering a few of them.  Things are quite busy at work (my day job) so it is hard to devote a great deal of time to an unpaid hobby - as important as my updates might be.  I will try to include some headings so you can skip to whatever you might find interesting....

1. Getting to and from Israel

I thought I would start with this one - since some of you might be planning or thinking about planning trips to Israel in the coming months.  Since October, 2023, "commuting" has become extremely challenging.  As you might know, Air Canada suspended its service to Israel on October 7, 2023 as did many other airlines.  Only El Al continued its service to Israel uninterrupted as did a handful of other airlines - including Emirates Airlines.  (Though has you know, El Al had cancelled its direct Toronto service more than a year ago in any case).

Air Canada has announced that it will be resuming service effective April 8, 2024, but there is still no end to the war in sight - so I guess what I would say is "I'll believe it when I see it."  

Over the years, as you may know, I have been doing my best to fly Air Canada as often as I can.  The Aeroplan program is better than the available alternatives and Air Canada has been the only airline with direct service since El Al cancelled its direct service to Toronto.

So since October, I have tried to find ways to get to Israel from Toronto by combining Air Canada and El Al.  I have flown through Rome, Amsterdam and London with these combinations.  These were challenging connections to say the least, especially if you have luggage.  Since there is no sharing agreement between airlines, you have to land, exit the airport, collect your baggage and then check in again.  I would say that the Rome airport was reasonably efficient - especially for Canadian passport holders - as they have a quick line for holders of passports from certain countries, including the EU, U.S. and Canada.  Amsterdam was a disaster.  The immigration line alone there took more than an hour.  

In London, the exit was almost as quick as Rome - but then I had to take a train - (way, way, way down) to switch terminals.  The whole process  took forever.

Considering everything, I was prepared to make the best of it and arrange a few more flights via Rome.  The problem is that the connection is great leaving Israel going back to Toronto.  But from Toronto - you have to plan on spending a day in Rome.  

Okay - things could be worse.  For one of my flights, I locked up my baggage and spent a day in Rome.  I went for lunch at a Kosher Tunisian restaurant -  (which was interesting - but I probably should have gone with the Kosher Italian food instead....) and walked around the city for several hours.  I managed to visit the Trevi Fountain, several other sites and, ultimately, a great gelato place.

But more recently, all of the airlines have upped their fares considerably.  To fly via Rome this time, the fares were over $3,000 Canadian for economy class, with a lengthy delay.   I couldn't find any other reasonable alternatives.

So I wound up trying Air France via Paris - with a 1.5 hour connection in Paris.  It sounded questionably optimistic but it was less than 1/2 the price of other alternatives.  The flight itself from Toronto to Paris on Air France was fine.  Reasonably comfortable seats, decent entertainment system and fairly good service.  We arrived in Paris a bit early - but... sat on the tarmac for almost an hour and  missed the connection.  So me and seven other Israelis - my "lonsmen" (actually there were no women in the group so it was really only lonsmen) were put on an alternate flight - the next day.  We were given vouchers for a hotel near the airport, vouchers for food at the hotel and at the airport - and instructions for a free shuttle to and from the hotel.  

I suppose things could be worse than an overnight in Paris. After resting for a while in the hotel (a medium end airport Moxy Hotel), I shared an Uber ride with some of my fellow Israelis and headed off to the Eiffel Tower. From there, we walked over to the Left Bank area, taking in the sights and sounds of Paris along the way.  It was quite an inconvenient stopover but we made the best of it.  I have applied for the EU compensation (which is supposed to be 600 Euros for the missed connection, at the fault of the airline) but let's see if that arrives.

On the way back to Toronto - I am travelling through Amsterdam with one of my family members and we have an overnight there.  The alternative is paying 3-4 times as much.  So we will see how that goes.  

For now, all of this has meant fewer  Aeroplan points, travelling without any benefits - and very inconvenient connections.  There are El Al flights through New York and other cities in the U.S., though the prices have also increased dramatically.  I am also not a big fan of transiting through the U.S. if I an avoid it - due to the incredibly long and inefficient security (especially compared  to most of the big European airports).  As well, the El Al loyalty program is terrible comparatively.  

All in all, these are small problems compared to challenges that Israel is facing with an ongoing war. Our soldiers are in constant danger including our standing army and our reserve soldiers.  The civilian population is also under threat of terrorist attacks, missile attacks, and other threats.  The Northern border is in a state of all out war - or close to it.  And of course all of the  areas surrounding Gaza have been devastated.  So my concerns about getting to and from Israel - are minor in comparison to everything else.  But for people considering coming here, I thought it might be worth writing about the options.

I have also seen available flights on Ethiopian Airways, Emirates/Air Dubai and Lot Polish.  Some of these flights can include total flying time of 30-40 hours with lengthy stopovers in different places - sometimes with two or three connections.

So I have joined the Air France loyalty program and used the opportunity to practice my French a bit.  "Un vin rouge s'il vous plait"....and "Un  autre vin rouge s'il vous plait...".  Merci.  Actually there was more - "un cognac s'il vous plait" - Air France is well stocked with beverage options.

2. The Government

The current Israeli government is facing a wide range of challenges and grappling with many different fault lines.   As you may know, it still has a 64-56 coalition majority. None of the coalition partners have anywhere else to go, ideologically, so I would be surprised if the government were to collapse any time soon notwithstanding the apparently vast unpopularity of the current leadership.

One of the most interesting issues - is the enlistment of the Ultra-Orthodox (the "Haredim").  A whole megillah could be written about this issue.  The short version is that the first Prime Minister of Israel, David Ben Gurion, agreed to a "compromise" with the ultra-religious community back in 1948 whereby a relatively small number of yeshiva students would be exempt from military service to be able to continue their religious studies full-time.

Over the years since 1948, through various coalition deals, the number of exempt ultra-orthodox has ballooned greatly -  to the point where the entire community of ultra-orthodox Jews have been granted exemptions from the army, provided that they study in yeshivahs.  

Various court challenges were brought by different groups - and the Israeli Supreme Court decided, on several instances, that these arrangements were not fair - since different classes of citizens were being treated differently.  The Court gave the government time to negotiate and enact a law to address the situation.  But the ultra-religious have been having none of it and have been demanding a blanket override law - a "notwithstanding clause" if you will - that exempts all of them permanently - even while their population is growing at a dramatic rate relative to the non-haredi population.

This current government is made up of close to 25% ultra-orthodox members - which demanded support for this exemption as a term of supporting Netanyahu.

Now the Supreme Court had given the government until April 1, 2024 to enact a law to address the situation.  While there have been negotiations - there is no law - and nothing close to a law.  So the Court has stated that effective April 1, 2024, the government will need to cease funding any yeshivas that are not sending their students to the army.

Needless to say the Haredim are promising full civil disobedience.

The ultra-religious parties are threatening to quit the government but they have nowhere to go.  No other party will give them a better deal.  Causing an election now is almost certainly a recipe for disaster for the ultra-religious (and perhaps for the rest of the extreme right wing).  So it seems like they are going to huff and puff quite a  bit - but it is hard to imagine that they will actually blow the house down (i.e. cause the government to fall).

Even so, this promises to be a fascinating issue to watch in the coming weeks.

3. The War

It is hard to know what is really going on with respect to the progress of the war.  There are reports across world wide media - and there are daily reports from the Israeli military spokesperson and various Israeli media outlets.

According to one report I read yesterday, that seemed reasonably reliable, Israeli intelligence had estimated that there were about 30,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters before the war.  Revised estimates seem to put the numbers closer to 40,000-45,000.

Israeli reports of dead, injured and captured Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters total between 25,000 and 30,000.  So Israel seems to believe that it has immobilized approximately 3/4 of the fighting forces that it was facing.  It seems that the majority of the remaining forces are in Rafiah -which is likely to be the final area of fighting - even as other fighting continues across Gaza.

Note that the Hamas "Health Ministry" claims that the number of dead Gazans is around 30,000.  That number includes civilians and fighters.  In other words, if Israel's numbers are correct and the number of dead fighters in the range of 20,000-25,000 - the number of dead civilians is actually quite low for a conflict of this scope and nature, which includes urban fighting with Hamas using its people as human shields.

That is not to say that anyone feels good about dead Gazan civilians.  But this is hardly a "genocide" or the intentional killing of civilians.  Gaza has a population of approximately two million.  If Israel was setting out to kill civilians intentionally, the numbers would be in the hundreds of thousands.  But Israel is not Russia - or Syria - or other constituent member countries of the UN that routinely carry out those types of massacres but only vote to sanction Israel.

While Israel is fighting a messy campaign in Gaza against a ruthless terrorist army, it is also fighting a major war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border with Lebanon.  This war has been escalating constantly since October 7, 2024.  As of today, Hezbollah and Lebanon have not decided to unleash a full scale war with Israel - which would involve sending thousands of rockets all over Israel.  In response, Israel would almost certainly flatten Beirut and many other Lebanese cities.  So far, Hezbollah has been fighting an aggressive war, launching RPGs and killing many Israelis - while shelling a range of northern Israeli cities.  In response, Israel has been shelling Hezbollah locations, launching air raids and attacking Hezbollah locations across Lebanon.  But it has not launched a full out attack on Beirut or turned the fighting into a "full-scale war."  But effectively, there is a very dangerous war going on in the north and thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes and cannot return.  

Cities like Kiryat Shemona are ghost towns - with only solders and various armored units in place.

Many Israelis believe that Israel will need to launch a full out war with Hezbollah before this all ends - to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border to where it should be (in line with UN resolutions).  The only other alternative is a negotiated arrangement with Hezbollah whereby Hezbollah would agree to move back from the border.  This does not seem to be close.

4. The Hostages

As you know, it is believed that Hamas is continuing to hold approximately 130 Israeli hostages.  Some reports have indicated that anywhere from 30 to 50 of these hostages have been reported dead.  But the family members of these hostages - and indeed - all Israelis - continue to hope that all of the hostages will return to Israel alive.

Some of the released hostages have provided detailed reports of the atrocities they faced while in Hamas captivity - including sexual violence  - which is still being denied in some circles of pro-Hamas supporters.  The New York Times, to its credit, has recently published extensive details of many of these atrocities.

Many Israelis are calling on the government to do everything it can to win the release of the hostages - even if that means making an unpalatable deal with Hamas.  But the Hamas demands are not just unreasonable - there are completely unacceptable - not just to Netanyahu but across most of the Israeli spectrum of opinion.  Hamas has stated quite publicly that it would like to take a "pause" and then do this again - on an even bigger scale.

So is is unclear what kind of deal, if any, can be made with Hamas.  In my view, Israel will need to launch a full scale operation in Rafiah and destroy the remaining Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighting forces.  There really aren't many other choices.

5.  World Response

At the outset of the war, President Biden visited Israel, sent aircraft carriers and demonstrated complete support for Israel and its response.  It is hard to imagine that any President (including the orange headed guy) would have demonstrated such significant support for Israel at a time of crisis.

But as the war has progressed, the relationship with the United States has unquestionably deteriorated.  For one thing, Biden has been losing support to Trump.  Some commentators have claimed that this is because  of the Israel-Gaza file.  I'm actually not convinced - since it is hard to imagine that the Republicans would be better for the pro-Gaza crowd.  But the perception seems to be that Biden needs to shore up his left, "progressive" wing - which means putting more distance between his government and the Israeli leadership.

President Biden now seems to be intent on "rewarding" the Palestinians for this massive terror operation by setting up a Palestinian State, perhaps even unilaterally.  While this is  not yet official U.S. policy - there is a definite sense that this is emerging as a U.S. option.

Granted, Prime Minister Netanyahu is part of a very extreme government that has no interest (and probably never has had any interest) in reaching any kind of agreement with any Palestinians.  So that does not make things easy for Biden or anyone else.

But the real narrative here  -  is that Israel is dealing with a very extreme, radical, movement, intent only on Israel's destruction, that launched an all out war on October 7, 2023.  There is no proposal by Hamas or by the Islamic Jihad for peace or anything close to it.  Historically, we know what must be done to fight these types of regimes. They must be defeated completely.  It doesn't seem to me that this war  will end until Yihyah Sinwar and his henchmen are caught, dead or alive and until Hamas effectively surrenders.

I believe that President Biden would get much more traction pushing for that result - even as a negotiating tactic.  If Hamas understands that the U.S. will support Israel in finishing off the Hamas military, whatever the cost - for Israel and for Gazan civilians - Hamas will lessen its demands dramatically and perhaps even surrender.  But failing to veto a UN resolution calling for an "immediate cease fire" is a completely unhelpful move.  Just imagine  supporting a call for a U.S. cease fire while the U.S. was fighting the Nazis.  

As for Canada - the situation is completely embarrassing, ridiculous and at all odds with any reasonable morally supportable position.  Perhaps that is where the Canadian leadership figures it will obtain its votes or perhaps they have simply shown their true colours.  But joining the company of Ireland, Turkey, Iceland and  other anti-Israel protagonists is just not a well thought out position for Canada - which may well face its own security challenges down the road as the numbers of extremist Muslims  in Canada continue to rise.  So far, Canada has seen a massive growth in anti-Semitic activity - which has included blockading bridges in Jewish neighbourhoods, demonstrating outside synagogues, attacking Jewish owned stores and businesses and a whole host of other activities.

Instead of unequivocally condemning these incidents - the Federal government has used some very questionable language and has exacerbated the situation.  For the Jewish community at least, it is quite clear that Canada is in drastic need of a change of leadership.

All of this aside, Israel drastically needs its own  change  of government though that is unlikely to happen any time soon.  Nevertheless, the response from this current Israeli government to the October 7th attacks by Hamas would have been pretty much the same from any Israeli government that might have been in power, in my view.  Israel needs to destroy the threat from Hamas, find a way to return the hostages, or as many of them  as possible - and only then move to considering a long term solution for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

6. The Holidays

On a lighter note (in some ways), Israel celebrated the holiday of Purim last week.  Unfortunately, I picked up a case of Covid while visiting the City of Lights - and had to skip my usual Megillah reading.  I usually read chapter 8 - and sometimes 9 and 10 here at our shul in Israel.  

We still received a few nice mishloach manot (Purim gift baskets) including one really interesting one.  Friends of ours gave us a "do-it-yourself" Tabouleh kit - with fresh vegetables from Israeli farms in the vicinity of Gaza.  It was quite a fun and thoughtful idea and we enjoyed putting it together.

I ate my share of hamentaschen, even  while under the weather.  There was definitely a subdued feel to Purim in Israel this year as I am sure there was in the Jewish community throughout the world.

It is  now time to start getting ready for Pesach though we still have a few weeks.  Enough time for a trip back to Toronto before the holiday and maybe a chance to get some  work done. 

I think that is about all I am going to cover for now.  I know there is lots more to say and hopefully I will have the chance to write another blog shortly.  

We are continuing to hope and pray for some good news here in Israel. We have lost so many of our soldiers - 598 as of the time of writing of this blog - and so many more have been injured (more than 3,100).  Since this is a people's army - that means that we all know someone who was injured or killed in the fighting.  We know of friends and neighbours and their children who are now stationed in Gaza or  on Israel's northern or eastern borders. And unfortunately, we know of people from our city, our synagogue, our children's schools and other places that have been killed or injured since October 7, 2023.

At this time, I think the best we can do is hope that the Israeli army can win a decisive victory or otherwise cause Hamas to surrender as soon as possible and we can then look to how to deal with the broader conflict with a long term view.

On a final note - I have to point out that Israeli clocks are officially moving ahead by one hour tonight - yes we are finally "springing ahead" - a few weeks after North America.  So as I finish off this blog - and perhaps watch a bit of the Leafs-Capitals game before going to sleep - it is with the unfortunate knowledge that I will be losing an hour of sleep tonight.

Shabbat Shalom and best regards from Israel.

Israel Wrap Up Update 2023

Fallen Soldiers

Captain Shaul Greenglick z"l was killed this week in northern Gaza.  He was 26 years old.  He was an officer in the Nahal brigades, unit 931.  He was from Ra'anana.  Just a few weeks ago, he participated, in uniform, in Israel's reality singing contest "Kochav Nolad" ("A Star is Born") and passed into the next round. He impressed the panel of four judges with his rendition of a Hanan Ben Ari song, "Blind Bat."  After performing, he returned to Gaza to fight with his unit.  He was killed along with 26 year old Captain Shay Shamriz. In total, six soldiers were killed on Monday.  The IDF has just announced three more names of soldiers killed yesterday, including Eliezer Chitiz z"l, who was also from Ra'anana.   In total, 164 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the start of the ground operation in Gaza and a total of 498 soldiers have been killed since the start of the war on October 7, 2023.

Captain Greenglick's funeral was today in Ra'anana.  We joined thousands of Ra'anana residents to line the streets and wave Israeli flags as the military hearse drove by, escorted by several security vehicles.  I would think the same scene will take place again tomorrow in Ra'anana for the funeral of Eliezer Chitiz, who will also be laid to rest in the military cemetery in Ra'anana, which is two blocks away from our home.

Military Situation - State of the War

Israel is in a very dangerous phase of the war now.  The country's military forces are fighting actively (to different degrees) on seven different fronts.  One area of heavy fighting is in Gaza, where thousands of Israeli troops are fighting Hamas guerillas in many different locations.  The Israeli army has gone into the tunnel network in various locations and has been fighting in many different areas in northern and southern areas of Gaza.  Since the temporary cease fire deal ended, the casualty rate for Israeli soldiers has spiked dramatically.  I have not heard any reports to suggest that the fighting is close to a conclusion.

In the north, Israel is fighting on two fronts.  On the Lebanon border, from Israel's west coast to the point where Lebanon, Syria and Israel all meet, Israel is fighting a very active and very difficult war against Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is stationed right at Israel's border and has been launching anti-tank missiles against civilian and military targets, unmanned suicide drone attacks, weaponized, controlled drone attacks and other military and terrorist campaigns.  Israel has been defending against these attacks and launching its own counter-offensive measures on an ongoing basis.  Many Israeli soldiers have fallen in these northern battles.

In the northeast, Israel is fighting against Syria and Iraq, with Hezbollah and other Iranian backed military groups launching attacks from Syrian territory.  Israeli has responded to these attacks in many different ways, some  of which have been reported in the media - reaching as far as the Damascus area.

Israel is also fighting against Hamas-backed groups of terrorists in areas of Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank").  Some areas have seen particularly heavy fighting including Jenin and the Tulkarem area.

In the south, Israel has had to deal with proxy attacks from the Houthi rebels, an Iranian-sponsored military organization situated in Yemen that has vowed to attack any and all ships travelling through the Red Sea Strait en route to or from Israel.  The Houthis have fired several long-range, Iranian-supplied missiles at Eilat and other places in Israel.  To date, these missiles have been shot down by U.S. or Israeli defence forces using anti-missile systems.

The big "mastermind" behind all of this - and the main enemy is, of course, the Republic of Iran, which has armed, trained, sponsored and, largely, controlled all of these forces.  Iran is using Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups as proxies to attack Israeli while, to date, avoiding any direct attacks on Israel.  As recently as yesterday, Iran threatened to begin direct attacks against Israel soon. Iran has, for several years, called for the destruction of Israel and is certainly the most hostile country in the region towards the State of  Israel.  Iran has also been the sponsor of virulent anti-Semitic propaganda including Holocaust denial and other poisonous forms of anti-Jewish bigotry.

To get to seven fronts, you can separate the Syrian forces from the Iraqi forces - though attacks and activity from these two groups are largely originating from the same place.

Now with that all in mind, calling for an "unconditional cease fire" is tantamount to calling for Israel to surrender to these various enemies, which Israel certainly will not do.  The Hamas leadership, in interviews since October 7, 2023, has stated that they plan to carry out the same types of attacks "over and over again" until "Israel is destroyed."  Iran has made similar threats. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah started this war and they have not offered any proposals or concessions that would form the basis for a short or long term cease fire.

For now, the prospects of all of this ending any time soon seem bleak.  At this point, it seems unfathomable that Israel will conclude the war in Gaza without destroying the Hamas leadership or coming to a deal whereby the Hamas leadership leaves Gaza (like the Lebanon war deal in the 1980s in which Arafat and the PLO left Beirut and went to Tunisia).  Israel will also need to insist on a deal whereby Hezbollah moves back, several kilometres, from the Israeli-Lebanon border and the Israeli-Syrian border.  If there is no deal with Hezbollah, there may will be a full-blown war with Lebanon, that could start any time now.

As for Iran, I don't believe that Israel is about to launch a major attack on Iran, though there are certainly scenarios in which Iran could draw the U.S. into the conflict and provoke U.S. operations against Iran.  This does not seem too likely as of now, but the Middle East is quite unpredictable.

Israeli Appreciation towards Soldiers

One of our family members was home for a break from reserve duty in Gaza.  We went to grab breakfast before he had to return.  He was in uniform.  As we were sitting in the cafe, some Ra'anana residents came over to talk to him.  They thanked him for his service and insisted on paying for whatever he wanted to order (as well as anything his friend and fellow soldier ordered).  Of course we would have been happy to pay the bill but this was such a nice gesture.  It is something that happens all  over Israel wherever civilians see soldiers in uniform, especially these days.

Hostages

According to current reports, there are still about 133 hostages being held by Hamas who were taken into captivity on October 7, 2023.  Some were soldiers, some were residents of the various Kibbutzim and communities near Gaza that were attacked and some were concert-goers attending the Nova music festival. Some very young children are still in captivity, assuming they are alive.  No list has been provided by Hamas or the International Red Cross - or anyone else.  We really don't know how many of  these hostages are still alive, what condition they are in or where they are being held.  

Based on information we have received from released hostages, we know that the hostages were being held in very difficult conditions with very little food  and water provided each day.  Some of the women were separated out and kept in different areas.  There are reports (from the released hostages and others) about widespread sexual abuse.  Some of the other hostages were quite elderly, in their 80s, with various medical conditions.  

Israelis have been demonstrating in support of the families of these hostages and demanding that the government take all appropriate steps to return the hostages home.  But so far, there is no available deal on the table that would bring this about.  There are rumours of different negotiations taking place, brokered by Egypt, Qatar or others - but I have not heard any reports that a deal is close.

Civilian Deaths

Israel is obviously facing a difficult situation trying to extricate Hamas from Gaza while they have embedded their fighters in civilian populations and launched attacks from schools, mosques, hospitals and other crowded areas.  Even the Hamas leadership is apparently now using groups of hostages as human shields to avoid being killed or captured.

The Hamas Health Ministry has been reporting more than 20,000 Gazans as having been killed.  But there are a few things to remember.

First of all, the numbers are not verified and Hamas has notoriously exaggerated or fabricated numbers of casualties (remember the hospital incident early this year).  

Secondly, Hamas does not announce the numbers of fighters who are killed.  By Israel estimates, the numbers of Hamas fighters killed are 1/2 to 2/3 of the total number killed.  In other words - the actual Hamas numbers of total casualties my be anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 - we just don't know.

Of those, the number of Hamas fighters killed is between 8,000 and 12,000, according to different Israeli sources.

Suffice it to say that the civilian casualty numbers are therefore much lower than the numbers that are simply accepted and printed by publications and news media around the world.

This is not to say that anyone in Israel is happy to see high numbers of civilian casualties in Gaza.

But at the same time - we are dealing with an enemy that is trying to kill as many of us as possible- civilians and military personnel.  In that circumstance - Israelis feel that we are better off killing our enemies than being killed ourselves.  This is the same type of reaction that the Allies had when dealing with Germany - or Japan in World War II - or that any nation has when confronted with an armed conflict started by an enemy.

The Israeli army would rather protect the lives of as many Israelis (soldiers and civilians) as possible, even if that means that there are civilian casualties while fighting Hamas. That's unfortunate but it is a by-product of war.  Certainly the civilian casualties in Gaza or far lower than the casualty numbers in conflicts involving Russia, Syria or even the United States (see Afghanistan, Iraq or other places).

To call the Israeli war against Hamas a "genocide" is  nothing less than a morally vacuous blood libel.  Yet that is the language coming from Turkey, Iran, Hamas-sponsored university groups across the United States and Canada and other places.

Volunteers and Visitors

Amidst all of this, people are still visiting Israel, as difficult as it might be to get here (with El Al and Emirates being the only airlines that are currently flying to Israel).  One of our friends arrived last week and is volunteering with "Sar-El" a group that stations volunteers for two-week periods at army bases around Israel to help pack supplies, equipment, food and assist in other ways.  Another friend has been visiting and volunteering to pick fruit and vegetables at various sites around the country.  Israel normally relies on labour from Thailand, Judea and Samaria, some Gazans and other foreign workers for much of the seasonal agricultural work.  Very few workers from any of these places are available.  Farmers around the country have been begging Israelis and others to come help  out - sometimes on a paid basis and sometimes as volunteers.  Israelis and people from all over the world have been answering the call.

Many synagogues from across  North America and other places have been bringing "missions" to Israel.  A group from the Park Avenue Synagogue in New York came earlier this month.  In mid-January, a group will be visiting Israel from Beth Tikvah Synagogue in Toronto.  Just today, some friends told us that they will be arriving in mid-January for a 10 day trip - including some time volunteering in different places.

In short, there are lots of volunteer opportunities and I think Israelis are very grateful for the help - both from non-Israelis - who have shown up to volunteer - and from Israelis - many of whom are volunteering in different ways.

Of course, many other tours have been cancelled - including the various birthright groups. Some friends who were planning to come cancelled - and others postponed their trips. I think the short term future of tourism to Israel is very much up in the air - like so many other things for Israelis now including academic programs, social events, work and so many other parts of a normal routine. So many of our young people are cancelling all of these events to serve in life and death missions in Gaza, Israel's north, or wherever else they might be stationed.

Getting Here

As I mentioned above, only El Al and Emirates (as well as the Emirates subsidiary "Fly Dubai") are flying to Tel-Aviv now.  El Al is flying to several cities in the U.S. - so if you are flying from New York, Boston, Chicago, Miami or some other cities - and don't mind flying El Al - there are still available flights.

In my case, as I have written in different articles in the past, I tend to stick with Star Alliance airlines,  flying  Air Canada as often as I can.  So I have been joining Air Canada flights with El Al flights.  They don't have a baggage sharing arrangement - so I have had to collect my bags, go through immigration and then re-check-in to drop off my bag.  It is very cumbersome.  If you are doing this, you need to allow about four hours for a transfer.

For my flight back to Toronto, I flew through Amsterdam without a checked bag.  This was much better than flying with a bag since I did not have to go through immigration, security or anything else.  I was just able to make my way over to the Air Canada gate with lots of time to spare and even managed to spend time in the lounge in Amsterdam (which was nothing exciting).

On my way back to Israel, I flew Air Canada to London.  That part of the flight was fine.  I then had to collect my bags and walk quite a long distance to the subway system to take a train to terminal 4.  This took quite a while and was a bit of a pain since I had a suitcase with me - along with a carry on bag and a knapsack.  There were lots of escalators, moving walkways, corridors and other parts to this journey - which took close to an hour in total.

Once I arrived at terminal 4 - things were fine - though the El Al gate was not even open yet.  So I wound up sitting around in a coffee bar waiting for the El Al desk to open.

Overall, it was certainly better than Amsterdam but it was not fun. At least the immigration line was efficient.

I haven't found the ideal arrangement yet though I will have to go back to Toronto in mid-January.  My current plan is to travel again through Rome.  (El Al to Rome and then Air Canada to Toronto).

Although some airlines have announced a resumption of service to Israel, scheduled for mid-January, I don't believe that these flights will begin again until there is a cease fire of some sort. I guess we will have to see.

Entertainment

Throughout all of this, Israeli TV has continued to broadcast episodes of "Eretz Nehederet" ("It's a Wonderful Country") which is the closest thing Israel has to Saturday Night Live. The show is replete with satirical sketches involving impersonators of many of Israel's political leaders and other public figures.  Eretz Nehederet has aired some sketches in English poking fun at the BBC's coverage of the war, the U.S. college campus situation and other world events.  Much of the humour is very dark - but they are trying to bring a bit of levity to a very difficult situation.  The skits are hit or miss.  Some are extremely funny, some not so much.  Isn't that the case with any satirical show?

Last week's show included an impersonation of Tzvi Yehezkeli - an Israeli commentator who is fluent in Arabic and has been on Israeli TV continuously, providing interpretations of Arabic news releases and statements.  The Eretz Nehederet version was quite spot-on, making fun of Yehezkeli's  explanation of Arabic phrases and idioms.  At one point - the impersonator provided a sentence in Arabic - and then offered the translation - "The world is like a cucumber....one day you are holding it in your hand - and the next day it is stuck up your butt."  I'm not here to interpret these things - I am just passing on what I heard (and laughed at, I have to say).

Last  night, Eretz Nehederet aired a very serious sketch involving a traumatized soldier showing up to watch his family arguing about politics as usual. This one was tear-inducing and difficult to watch. The skit was done with an overlay of the song "Kama Tov She'bata Habayta" - ("How great it is that you have come home") - sung originally in 1971 by the late Israeli singer Arik Einstein. The song was originally written as a group effort by Yankele Rotblitt, Shalom Hanoch and Itzkhak Klapter.  The original version was written welcoming someone back after returning from a long trip abroad. Eretz Nehederet changed the words somewhat. Not sure if there is a translation available yet - but if your Hebrew is up to it - and the link works wherever you are - you can use the link above to watch it. Even without the Hebrew translation, you can probably get the mood from the sombre tone and the scene itself.

The other Israeli show that has been airing twice a week is "Zehu Zeh"  ("That's that") which is also a satirical show but a very different format. I think I have written about it in the past. They have also been airing skits making fun of the Houthis - implying that they are launching rockets at Israel from Yemen because they are bored. Zehu Zeh usually features two songs each episode, one with a guest singer.  Over the past few weeks - many different guests have appeared including Eidan Reichel, Chava Alberstein, and others.  The music has generally been excellent.  The comedy sketches - hit or miss.

Israeli singers have continued to travel the country performing for soldiers all over - whether in bases near Gaza, Gaza itself - or in different places in the north.  Some stand-up comedians have also been entertaining soldiers.  As you might have seen, Jerry Seinfeld showed up in Israel last week as a gesture of support - though I am not sure that he entertained troops anywhere.

December Holidays in Israeli

As you might know, Christmas is largely a non-event in Israel, outside of pockets of Christian communities.  It is a regular workday, everything is open.  It is quite something to see - for someone who is used to being bombarded with Christmas music in restaurants, shopping malls and everywhere else for two months before the holiday in Canada.

I have nothing against people celebrating Christmas - I wish all of my friends the very best in enjoying their celebrations. And if I am in Toronto and invited to a party or a dinner, I am certainly happy to join them.

At the same time, it is a season where, when I am in Toronto, I am constantly reminded how I differ from everyone else - how I stick out as a minority - and how I don't belong.  

Even though Israel is a majority Jewish state, the malls are not generally decorated with any particular holiday's decorations - and there is no time of the year where Jewish holiday-themed music is on the radio 24/7.  On the actual holidays, everything is closed. But it seems to me it would be a lot less "in your face" than the way Christmas is celebrated in North America - even though Canada is not supposed to be a "religious" country by definition.

In Toronto this year, the local Second Cup starting playing Christmas music right after Canadian Thanksgiving ended (in October). I would have thought that even people who celebrate Christmas would be happy with two to three weeks of Christmas music at most.  But maybe I'm wrong.

Anti-Semitism Around the World

One of the major effects of this war has been a massive ramp up in anti-Semitism around the world.  The U.S. Ivy League schools (many of which receive huge donations from Qatar) have been at the forefront of anti-Israel demonstrations - many of which have blended into anti-Jewish hatefests.  

In Canada, the universities have not been much better.  Metropolitan University (formerly Ryerson) has been the source of some of the most vitriolic anti-Israel - and anti-Jewish hate speech.  York University has not been far behind. University of Toronto's "Varsity" publication has been spewing repugnant disinformation. CUPE (the Canadian Union of Public Employees) has a leader who "rejoiced" the day after the October 7th massacres and has engaged in an outrageous smear campaign against Israel.

Through all of this, Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, was the proud recipient of thank you video put out by one of the Hamas leaders - obviously an ignominious and dubious honour.  I think that Australia and New Zealand also received this fine mention from Hamas - and perhaps Ireland as well.

There have also been demonstrations across Europe and around the world, chanting "from the River to the Sea..." which is a call for the destruction of Israel. As a result, there is quite a feeling of isolation here right now. Israel seems to have very few real friends - the United States, Germany - and some days Britain  Maybe a handful of others.

Interestingly, there was a poll published last week in Israel - in which Israelis were asked "who is a better friend of Israel - Trump or Biden?" Far more Israelis went with Biden - which was a new phenomenon for Israelis, many of whom had viewed Trump as one of the best U.S. Presidents that Israel ever had as a friend in the White House.

But really - aside from all of this - for those European Countries that are wavering, and others, the situation is not that complicated.  You have on the one hand an axis of Russia, Hamas, Turkey, Qatar, Hezbollah, Iran and a handful of others. On the other hand - Israel, the U.S., Germany, Great Britain and some others.  I don't even think one needs to say more than that. For the countries supporting the Hamas-Qatar-Iran group - unfortunately, they will probably wind up next on the list soon enough.  And frankly, this is probably a very real warning to Trudeau and his government who want to bring hundreds of thousands of Hamas sympathizers to Canada. All I can do here is quote President Biden - "Don't!....just don't!..."

And I think that is about it for now.  I wish everyone a happy and healthy 2024 and hope that it will be a much more peaceful year.  Best regards from Israel.