Israeli Election Results 2026: Where do we go from here?

Inside Israeli Election Station 

    We flew back to Israel just in time to vote in this        year's Israeli elections.  This was one of the most        convenient flights I have taken in the past two years     between Toronto and Tel-Aviv - since I was able to     book the whole flight on one Air Canada ticket -         even though Air Canada is not currently flying             direct.

    The Flight

    We flew from Toronto on Air Canada to Vienna.          We had a scheduled 1 hour 45 minute changeover         in Austria.  Since it was all on an Air Canada               ticket  - we were able to send our luggage straight      through (yes we checked bags - there are many things that are considerably cheaper in Canada than in Israel - still...).  Our flight was about 1 hour and 10 minutes ahead of schedule - so we even had time to visit the Austrian Airlines lounge in Vienna.  It wasn't bad - but nothing super exciting.

The flight from Vienna to Tel-Aviv was packed with Israelis eager to get home and vote.  The flight was smooth and on-time - but I have to say that on this route - Austrian is competing with the low-cost airlines rather than the standard airlines.

The seats do not recline at all.  Food and drinks are only available for payment - even coffee - goes for 5 Euros a cup.  On the other hand - it is only a three hour flight.  It left on time and arrived on time - and we landed safely (okay there was a very loud thud when we landed....) but we arrived - in time to vote.

We had been concerned that the government would try to close the airport - or come up with some reason to delay flights - or that something else would happen.  But we made it. We had lots of time to stop at home, drop off our stuff, and then head over to the polling station.

Voting

In Israel - election day is a national holiday.  The trains and intercity buses are free for the day so that people can get to their designated polling booth. Outside the polling booth - there were representatives of the various campaigns - playing music, singing songs, and sitting at booths -  available to answer questions.  It wasn't a pressure campaign of any kind just an atmosphere of celebrating election day.

There was no line up or wait of any kind in Ra'anana - which, as it turned out, saw approximately 71.5% of its eligible voters show up to the polls. That was a bit lower than some of the nearby cities - Herzliyah, Hod Hasharon, Ramat Hasharon - some of which were closer to 80%.

In Israel, when you show up at the polling station, you show your ID to a panel of three or four supervisors - who each review it and check you off the list.  You then receive an empty blue envelope.

You go into the voting booth -  and inside the booth - you have a huge box with various compartments - each with pieces of paper with different party names on each piece.  You pick the piece of paper with the name of the party that you want to vote for and you put it in the envelope and then seal it.  If you put a blank piece of paper (an available option) or no piece of paper - or multiple pieces - your ballot is officially spoiled.  

You then go and stand in front of the three supervisors and put your sealed envelope into the big blue voting box.  And that's it - you are done.

No filling  in circles - or other format that would enable quick electronic counting.  In fact the system is a system that probably could have been used several hundred years ago - and the post election counting continues to take just as long.

As a sidebar - I have to note that the system  in Canada, by contrast, was an easy, effective modern system.  You get your ballot, you fill in the  circle for the candidate (or party) that you would like to elect, you put it into an envelope and then deposit it into a computerized ballot counting system.  You therefore have an efficient way of counting ballots and a way to recount - if required.

My vote in Toronto didn't help the disastrous results for the Toronto Jewish community - since the City of Toronto re-elected a mayor who is extremely antagonistic towards Israel and towards the Jewish community in Toronto - which is very unfortunate.  I received the results while I was on the airplane flying from Toronto to Vienna. But this is all a big digression.

Waiting for the Results

People in Israel are glued to their TVs or computers at 10 p.m. when the polls close.  But they do not start getting real results. Instead the various national networks release exit poll results - and the "experts" start analyzing the results of the election based on these exit polls - which, over the years, have become increasingly inaccurate. There are also four different TV stations releasing four different sets of results. One station, Channel 14 (think Fox News in the US), released a poll showing that Bibi had won 31 seats and that his government would get to 61 seats overall. All of the others put the Likud at closer to 23-26 and estimated that the Likud Bloc would get to 52-55 seats, short of the 61 needed to form a government.

We watched for a while - and I think it was only after 12:30 a.m. that actual real results started appearing.

The various leaders all gave speeches - but of course - the speeches are all based on scant information and incomplete results.  Nevertheless, each party leader seemed to claim victory of sorts, culminating in Bibi speaking at about 3:45 a.m. and, of course, claiming victory.

The Actual Results

And now - what you have been waiting for - the actual results - based on more than 95% of the counted votes.

Out of  120 seats in the Knesset - 5,641,300 votes counted out of a total of 5,695,682 total ballots (including a large chunk of spoiled ballots)

Government Bloc

Likud: 27

Yehadut Hatorah (Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox): 7

Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power - far right Ben-Gvir Party): 7

Hatzionit Hadatit (Religious Zionist Party - far right Smotrich): 6

Shas (Sephardi Ultra-Orthodox): 6

Total Likud Bloc: 53 seats.

This leaves the current government 8 seats short of being able to form a government with a total loss of 14 seats from their position at dissolution of the Knesset and 11 less than the number they won in the 2022 election. 

Opposition Bloc

Yashar (Eisenkot - Centre Right): 21

B'Yachad (Bennett/Lapid - Centre Right) 12

The Democrats (Left - Golan): 8

Israel our home (Centre Right - Lieberman): 7

Total Opposition Bloc: 48

Quite disappointing for the opposition bloc - which had been forecast to be in the range of 53-55.  Poor showing, relative to expectations, for just about every constituent bloc member.

Arab Parties

Ra'am (led by Monsour Abbas - Conservative, Muslim party - but willing to work with Zionist parties):  8

Joint List (A combination of parties including communists and avowed anti-Zionist members): 11 seats

Total Arab Parties: 19

Very significant results for the Arab parties - which are now in a position to have major influence over the future government. The big winners of this election - measured by the improvement in position.

Specific Areas:

Before I get into my interpretation of what all of this means - and in case you are  wondering about how regional the results are in Israel - here is a snapshot of a few different places in Israel:

1. Ra'anana: 

In Israel - the political map uses Red for the opposition,  Blue for the Likud-led government - and different shades for different  mixtures  Ra'anana was a shade of red  - though the "least red" of the Sharon region cities.  65% of voters supported the opposition bloc, while 35% supported the government. Eisenkot received 26.5% of  the vote, Bennett 20.6% and Bibi 18.6%. The surrounding cities of Hod Hasharon, Ramat Hasharon and Herzliyah received closer to 75-80% opposition support.

2. Tel Aviv:

Nearly 76% opposition, nearly 24% government support.

3. Rehovot

52%  opposition, 48% government.

4. Netanya

59% government, 41% opposition

5. Jerusalem

75%  government, 25%  opposition. 37% of all voters voted for the two ultra-religious parties.

6. Beer Sheva

63% government, 37% opposition.

7. Kiryat Eqron

75% government, 25% opposition

As you can see, the political map is divided on a very regional basis - much like the U.S. map -  even though Israel is a relatively small country.  Rehovot is the closest to being considered a "bell weather" area - split almost evenly between the different blocs.

What Does all of this Mean?

At the time of writing, it is unclear what is now going to happen. Going into the election, if you read my previous blog, you would recall - that I did estimate that a "stalemate" was the most likely result - at 50% plus.  For  now - this looks like a stalemate.  However, it can also be a bit like trying to solve a Rubik's cube.  There are various alternatives  out there - if the various constituent members want to form a government.  I am going to run through some of this now.

1. Options for Bibi

Even though Prime Minister Netanyahu has won the plurality of seats - a total of 27 seats - which is more than any other party - he lost 5 seats compared to the 2022 elections.  More importantly, his coalition members also lost seats. Shas went from 11 to 6. Overall, Bib's coalition went from 64 to 53.  

The real challenge is that Bibi, almost certainly cannot simply add parties from the opposition to this existing right wing coalition.  None of the current opposition parties are likely to join it.  So what options does Bibi have?

A. "Rag the Puck" - and Wait for New Elections

This is almost certainly Bibi's preferred strategy - since these results are very disappointing for his coalition.  It could have been worse, for sure.  He could have lost outright and the the opposition could have gotten to 61. That would have been a complete disaster for Bibi.  

The President of Israel, Yitzchak Herzog - will push for a "unity government" in which Bibi joins and /or leads a government with some or all of the opposition parties. But the only way that this could occur would be if Bibi were to abandon some or all of his coalition partners - the far right - and the ultra-orthodox and this seems unlikely.  Part of the reason is that this would damage his chances for the next  election. A "unity government" would almost certainly be fragile. As soon as it collapses a new election would be scheduled and if Bibi had abandoned his allies - he would have even bigger problems for a next round. So I do believe that his preferred strategy will be Trumpian - attack the legitimacy of the elections (as of the time of writing he has already started doing this), vilify the elected Arab Knesset members (he has started doing this) and claim that he will agree to a "unity" government if the opposition parties will simply join his governing coalition. They will not do so - which means that the best option for Bibi will be to do everything to force another election -  while making it look like it was not his preferred goal.

B. A True Unity Government

There is probably some kind of constellation in which Bibi and his Likud party could try to create a genuine "Unity Coalition." However, Bibi would  not be able to take all of this partners into this type of government - and he would need to make genuine, significant concessions. This could include agreeing to a National Commissions of Inquiry to investigate the events of October 7 (Bibi really opposes this), a law enlisting all of the Ultra-Orthodox or virtually all  to the army (Bibi opposes this because of the political fallout), a law freezing the "Judicial reform", and other possible laws.  Moreover, Bibi would need to install several of the Opposition Knesset members as Ministers in his cabinet.  

Of course the elephant in the room - is that this type of unity government would not cancel or end Bibi's trial or assist him with it. Unless a pardon - was a term of the unity government.  

Israeli politics can be very unpredictable so I do not think we can rule anything out at this time. But if Bibi decides that this his best route for preserving what is left of his legacy, ending his trial and making the best deal possible - this could be an option.  Overall, I am betting against it.

C. Some Crazier Options

i. Work with the Arab Parties

With 53 seats, theoretically, Bibi could make a deal with Ra'am, the Arab party that joined a Bennett led government.  Ra'am leader Monsour Abbas is a very practical leader - and with the right offer, he might consider a deal. The problem is that Bibi's coalition partners, in particular Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are very unlikely to agree to a coalition with any Arab party members. I am not sure that Bibi could pressure them into joining or that he would even try.

ii. Resign in Exchange for a Pardon

As crazy as its sounds, Bibi might calculate that this is the time to make his exit - even though he won 26 seats - and cut a deal with the President and the Prosecution - whereby he could get out of his criminal proceedings, leave politics and free his Likud party - to make a deal with some of the opposition members.  Sounds crazy - but see my comments above.  

Overall, given Bibi's level of hubris, I believe that he will do everything he can to push for a new election, while trying to make it look like it wasn't his fault.  

That is all Bibi's side of the equation.  However, given the numbers, he is not really in the driver's seat at this point.

2.  Options for the Opposition:

Eisenkot and the opposition parties - suffered a significant defeat, especially when compared to their anticipated results.  With only 48 seats, they are not in a great position to form a government.  But they do have some interesting options - especially since this is, after all, Israeli politics.

A. Propose a Genuine Unity Government

As discussed above, this is not a preferred option for Bibi. But perhaps there is some kind of proposal that the opposition can make - that will serve different purposes. First of all, if it is a genuine compromise proposal -  it could benefit the interests of the majority of Israelis and create some level of stability  If  the proposal fails - the fact that it was made, in good faith, could help the opposition in the next election.  This type of proposal would have to include an enlistment law for the ultra-orthodox, together with a law that reduces funding for institutions that do not teach secular subjects, significant ministries for the various opposition leaders, perhaps a pardon for Bibi and the end of the government led attacks on the judicial system. First of all, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to convince all of the opposition parties to join  this type of government. For example, I don't think that the Democrats would join under just about any conditions.  Further it seems unlikely that Bibi  would agree. Though perhaps the dangled pardon would be the incentive he needs. 

B. Entice the Ultra-Orthodox to Join

This one sounds strange as well.  But there are 13 ultra-orthodox MKs.  If they suddenly joined the opposition, that would bring the opposition to 61 seats.  In my view, neither the Haredim nor the Opposition are likely to agree to this.  Golan and Lieberman are strongly opposed to making any concessions to the ultra-religious and all of the opposition parties ran on promising an "enlistment law."  The Haredim could not join without significant concessions. They are certainly willing to make deals that will preserve their sources of funding and power.  They have done so in the past with left wing governments in Israel.  However, at this point, the gap between the opposition and the Haredim seems unbridgeable to me.

C. A deal with the Arab Parties

This is starting to look like the opposition's best strategy.  There are significant challenges here.  Eight of the Arab MKs, lead by Mounsour Abbas - are willing to support Israel as a  Jewish, Zionist state. Abbas has served in the government previously -  with Bennett.  Even though Lieberman, Bennett, and Eisenkot have also said that they would not sit with Abbas, I believe that they probably would.  However, even with Abbas' eight seats, that would only take Eisenkot to 56, still five seats short.  So he would then either need to add on an ultra orthodox party, some Likud members, some Joint List members - or Smotrich or Ben Gvir.

Both Smotrich and  Ben Gvir have sworn that they will not sit with any Arabs - even Abbas. And the opposition members would not really want to set with Ben Gvir or Smotrich either.  Though some opposition members - Lieberman and Bennett perhaps - might  prefer Smotrich and Ben-Gvir over Abbas.

The ultra-orthodox are a wild card and might  join for the right promises - but the opposition members  do not want to make those promises.

So that still leaves the opposition short by 5 seats.

The Joint List has 11 seats.  But these members included communists, pro-Hamas, Pro-PLO members.  Some of them are outright antagonistic towards the state.  Effectively, they are worse than having the Bloc Quebecois as part of a National Government in Canada.  So there are all kinds of problems with this idea.

It would be politically disastrous for the opposition bloc for the next elections - and it would be politically unpalatable, even for members within the opposition (other than Yair Golan perhaps).

And it could endanger Israel's security.

So an outright deal, that allows the opposition to form a government with the Arab parties seems unrealistic and unlikely. 

D. A Partial Deal with the Arab Parties

This is starting to look like a very real possibility. The Knesset could be sworn in and could start passing laws -  with the support of more than 61 members of the Knesset - even without having a formal government in place. Not sure how this would work yet - but the first step would be voting to replace the current speaker of the house, the interim Prime Minister - and perhaps to pass a number of other laws - for example  - setting up a National Commissions, putting in place and enlistment law, passing certain budget bills.  

It is hard to say what this will do.  It might send some opposition supporters to the right - for the coming elections -  and may  hand the Likud a victory the next time around.  Or it may give hope to many people who felt that their votes were being ignored and could create a sea change in Israeli politics.

There would be all kinds  of uncertainty here, and this type  of government is not likely to last very long.  I think the opposition members are going to need to think very carefully about how they approach this.  But it is starting to look like a serious option that we may see over the coming months.

iii. Options for the  Arab Parties

The two big voting blocs of Arab parties received their largest number of seats ever (so much for the arguments  about Israel as an "apartheid state.") But that still leaves the question - what can they do with this support? Can they translate it into real political gains?

A. Options for Ra'am

Ra'am is led by Monsour Abbas, a Muslim Israeli, a licensed dentist, fluent in Arabic, English and Hebrew - and a very skilled politician.  His party enlisted a Jewish Israeli as its number 2 candidate in this year's election - and he sat in the Bennett government in the past- and by all accounts made significant contributions.

Ra'am and its supporters would like to participate fully in the political process and are willing to make deals with the opposition parties and /or  even the government coalition.

Certainly there are elements in several parties - both the government and the opposition - that would  like to avoid any kind  of deal with Arab Knesset members - especially after October 7.  

But I think the majority of opposition members will view Ra'am as a legitimate partner and will view Abbas as a stable, helpful ally for forming a government.  

I believe that Abbas will push for Ra'am to be involved either directly or indirectly in any new government  led by the opposition and that he may well wind up being a Minister in any such government - whether now or as a result of some future election.

The challenge is that even with Abbas, the opposition still does not have enough to form a government. 

B. Options for the Joint List

Several of the Joint  List members, as  I have discussed above, are anti-Zionist, anti-Israel Knesset members.  As a result, they do not want to serve in government - even if they could do so.  Some of them are in politics to try and bring about the demise of the state of Israel.  Much like BQ members in Canada,  it would obviously be impractical, politically suicidal and unstable to rely on these members.

However, the Joint List has said that its goal would be to help the opposition get rid of Bibi's government and might support various laws -  even without being part of the government.  In other words, there could be some sort of minority government, supported externally by the Joint List - that could get the government to 61+ seats on most  issues.

This could benefit Arab Israelis across the  country - who could get significant benefits from supporting  the government - as a condition of their support. This could be very interesting for a period of time.

Conclusion

I could leave all of this blank - since I believe I have  gone through most of the possibilities but I am not in a position to make predictions yet.  My main prediction - is that Bibi will do his best to push for new elections, keep his role as interim Prime Minister - and attack the opposition and the Arab Israeli community at every opportunity as illegitimate and disloyal.

However, since his coalition lost the election, he may not be able to have his way - especially if Eisenkot turns out to be tougher politically than Benny Gantz was. This remains to be seen.

Other Comments

The weather is  beautiful here - 27C (about 81F) and sunny.  Air Canada  is expected to start flying direct to Tel-Aviv from Toronto on November 30, 2026 (let's see if that happens).  

Baseball season is over (I stayed up very late to watch the Brewers win the World Series - it was the only game I saw). Interestingly, the Israeli TV  stations broadcast NFL  football, NBA basketball and NHL hockey - but no baseball generally.  So I had to stream it.

We are of course in the month of "Mar Heshvan" - the "bitter" month of Heshvan which has no holidays or celebrations -  so I guess that means it is the opportunity to get lots of work done.  But for a political news junkie like me - we have several weeks of fascinating Israeli news coming up, the American mid-terms on Tuesday - and the very fragile situation here in the Middle  East.

I will write more soon - but I wanted to get this out with some thoughts and analysis of where we are at  now.  I note that there are all kinds of people circulating false, misleading information - or trying to twist the results into something that they are not.  My hope is that this analysis is all perceived as a reasonably objective analysis of the actual situation and what is likely to happen - rather than a propaganda column of the type that some well known bloggers are spreading (I won't name names).  

As usual, I am happy to discuss all of this or respond to comments.  Stay tuned for interesting, surprising and perhaps very unexpected developments.

Israeli Election Primer 1 - 2026

We are at 14 days before the next Israeli election - which will be held on October 27, 2026.  I thought it was about time that I put together a bit of an election primer - with some comments about what to expect, some peculiarities of voting in Israel - and some other election related comments.  So if you are not interested in reading about the upcoming Israeli elections - this may not be the blog for you. 

I have written blogs about the Israeli system, the parties and the way things work before past elections but I thought I should review some of that again - since it can be very confusing.

1. The Basics

As you may know, the Israeli electoral system is a parliamentary democracy - much like Canada or the UK or some other European countries.  Unlike Canada, the U.S. and the UK, there are no "districts."  The election is based solely on popular vote - one person one vote - and the Knesset seats are distributed in proportion to the voting percentages.  

There are 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament - the "Knesset" - so each 1% of the national vote -would mean 1.2 seats in the Knesset.

Israel has a minimum threshold, which is currently set at 3.25%.  This means that if a party runs and gets less than 3.25% of the popular vote - the votes are redistributed among the other parties - in proportion to the other results.  If a party gets just over the 3.25%, they automatically get 4 seats in the Knesset, the minimum number.

In order to form a government, you need to either win 61 seats in a general election (which has never happened in Israel's history) or you need to cobble together a coalition of parties that adds up to 61 seats.  Unlike Canada or the UK, you cannot really run the government with a "minority" government.  Since the government must secure the confidence of the Knesset to put its cabinet in place, pass legislation, appoint Ministers etc., groups must be able to show an agreement with at least 61 seats in a coalition bloc.

A government or a governing coalition can stay in power for up to 4 years - or until the government collapses - whichever comes first.  Many governments collapse before the full 4-year term - since it is often difficult to hold a wide range of parties and their interests together for a lengthy period of time.

The current Israeli government, which is the 25th Knesset but apparently the 37th government in Israel's 76 year history has a coalition made up of 67 or 68 MKs (there is one MK who votes with the government but is not necessarily still part of it at this point).  The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has 32 of those seats.  The current coalition is made up of two ultra-religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) and two "far-right" parties - Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) (Ben-Gvir) and the Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich).

This current governing coalition managed to stay in power for its full terms and the elections are taking place because the four year time period will have passed.

2. A few more Basics - Okay - Advanced Basics

Since Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, it is very easy to put together a party and start running.  It is not as easy to get into the Knesset since you need 3.25% of the national vote to get in.  But that does not deter many people from running.  There are apparently about 37 registered parties this time around but realistically - there are between 11 and 13 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset.  There are another 4 parties or so - that think they can make it in but do not seem to be getting those results in any published polls.

You must vote in person in Israel - on the day of the elections. So you must be physically in the country and, of course, be an Israeli citizen, if you would like to vote. Only posted overseas diplomats and military personnel can vote by advance or absentee ballot.

Israel uses its own unique ballot system.  Once your identity is properly verified (by an independent panel representing different parties) - you go into the polling booth and pick out a small piece of paper that has the initials of the party that you would like to vote for printed on it. In other words, there is a big box with compartments in each voting booth filled with different slips, organized by party.  You put one of them in the envelope, seal it and deposit it into the ballot box.

It takes a very long time to get the results!  Unlike Canada or the U.S., the Israeli polling stations do not release results on an ongoing basis.  Apparently, the ballots are counted and then forwarded on to another station. The results are not released "in real time" that evening.

Instead, different media outfits - stand outside polling stations and ask people how they voted (answering is strictly voluntary and is recorded secretly).  The media outlets then report these results - even though they are certainly not official or anywhere close to it - and are sometimes wildly off from the actual results.

So election night in Israel is not nearly as riveting (in the same way) as an election in the U.S. or Canada can be with the live results pouring in by the minute. In Israel, you may not know the actual results until the next morning or even late the next day - though the "polls" are sometimes decisive enough to be reasonably accurate.

That's not to say that Israeli election results are predictable - they are certainly not - (in many cases).  And the results can differ quite a bit from what the pre-election polls were suggesting. But getting the actual results takes much longer.  Even hard core political junkies may not be able to watch for 20 hours straight until the results are more or less clear.

There are a few other interesting rules - like "surplus voting arrangements" whereby a party can make a deal with one other party to share any "surplus votes" rather than have them go back into the pool.  This only works for parties that have passed the minimum threshold. But I don't think I really need to get into a discussion of that for now.

3. The Parties

I am going to look at the governing coalition first - and take a quick run through its parties as well as the parties that are likely to join the current governing coalition if they make it in to the Knesset.

A. Governing Coalition

i. The Likud

One of Israel's largest and most powerful parties, this is the party of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and goes into this election for the 38th Israeli government with a bloc of 32 seats.  Netanyahu has been plagued by his personal legal problems including his ongoing criminal trial - and has been fighting to distance himself from any responsibility for the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023.  Netanyahu is a master politician, who knows how to win elections.  He often comes up with last minute surprises - which is why his nickname in Hebrew is the "magician."  For years, he painted himself as "Mr. Security" and campaigned on the idea that no one else could possibly fill his shoes. As a result of the the October 7th war, Netanyahu's image has absorbed some damage.  Many Israelis, including many of those on the right of the spectrum, believe that Netanyahu has pandered to the ultra-religious and refused to enact a stronger draft bill - that would ensure that more of the Haredim enlist in the army.  Others are concerned that by giving Ben-Gvir a portfolio covering the police and a range of internal matters, Netanyahu has let things get out of control in Judea and Samaria.  The world is paying attention to unchecked settler riots and pogroms in these territories and the Israeli government has not done nearly enough to stop these activities. Many Israelis are also upset that three years after the events of October 7th, there has still not been an exhaustive national inquiry (or any inquiry) and the security situation is not really in a better place than it was before this current government took charge.

Most polling numbers are projecting a drop in seats for the Likud party from 32 down to somewhere between 19 and 23. Many Likud Knesset members are likely to lose their seats.  

ii. Shas

Shas is the second largest party in the current government bloc.  It is an ultra-religious, Sephardi party led by a twice-convicted felon, Aryeh Deri.  The first time around, it was fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Deri spent 22 months in prison from 2009 and was released from the balance of his 3 year term for "good behaviour."  Shas pushes to help the ultra-orthodox Sephardi community by securing government funding for preferential housing, funding for religious institutions, medical care in ultra-religious neighbourhoods, all while generally opposing military enlistment.  In Israel's earlier history, Shas was willing to go along with the Labour bloc of parties - for the right financial deal. More recently, and certainly over the past several elections, Shas has been entirely tied to the Netanyahu camp - mainly because Netanyahu has been the only one willing to give Shas what it wants.  (And to agree to appoint Deri as the Minister of the Interior - even though he was convicted of offences twice while holding that role).  I don't think I need to say more about Deri - the convictions speak for themselves - other than to note that, like Bibi, he is a master campaigner and politician, who has a way of rounding up his base voters - no matter what he might do.  Or perhaps they figure whatever he is up to - is for their benefit.  Shas has 11 seats in the current Knesset.  Most polls are projecting them to wind up with 7 or 8.  I'm not sure where these voters will go - perhaps to Ben Gvir, Smotrich or Winter - see below.

iii. United Torah Judaism

Made up of two ultra orthodox (Haredi) Ashkenazi parties - this is the primary group representing Me'ah Sh'arim in Jerusalem, areas of Bet Shemesh and other Ashkenazi, Ultra-Orthodox areas.  These parties are anti-Zionist. They refuse to serve in the army - or study secular subjects. They look to the state to fund their lifestyle of Torah study, large families supported by state funds, housing subsidies, food subsidies and a state sponsored network of Yeshivas and rabbinically-governed organizations including the whole Kashrut system.  They have 7 seats in the current Knesset and are likely to wind up with a similar number.  It seems unlikely that they could wind up in any government other than a Likud-led government.  While some of the other parties might be willing to pay them off - other Knesset parties and members including Lieberman, Lapid, Bennett and Golan - are not willing to give UTJ anything close to what they want.  UTJ current has 7 seats in the Knesset. They are likely to wind up with the same number.  

iv. Otzma Yehudit

This party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir is a far right party and successor of the old Kahane-led Kach party (which was banned from the Israeli Knesset). Ben-Gvir is an active, talented politician-demagogue.  Once viewed as too extreme to join any centrist government, he has been playing a key role in the current Netanyahu government.  Ben-Gvir has been characterized in the media as racist, anti-Arab, extremist and in all kinds of other even more colourful language. Ben-Gvir has a criminal record for "incitement" among other crimes and was deemed too extreme to go to the army.  Nevertheless, he is currently Israel's Minister of National Security, even though Netanyahu adamantly stated that Ben-Gvir would not be Minister in his government before the last election.  He is now running a campaign demanding that he be the Minister of Defence in the next Netanyahu government.  

Despite his harsh and extremist views, Ben-Gvir often makes public media appearances, engaging those who disagree with him with a big smile and a sense of humour, while often brandishing his handgun with little provocation.  He has cultivated an almost "campy" image - which is the way he is portrayed on "Eretz Nehederet" (the Israeli equivalent of Saturday Night Live).  At the same time, the show also portrays him as a foaming-at-the-mouth extremist.  Ben Gvir's party is currently at 7 seats in the Knesset but could wind up with 7 to 10 seats after this coming election.

v. Religious Zionist Party

This party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, was originally the successor of the old "Mafdal" party - a party of which Naftali Bennett was originally an active member.  

Smotrich is a lawyer by profession.  His views are fairly similar to those of Ben-Gvir.  He has been subjected to international sanctions by a wide range of countries for permitting, or encouraging violence against Arab civilians.

Smotrich has been serving as the Minister of Finance in the current Likud-led government.  

Other than the personality clashes, I am not sure what distinguishes Smotrich's views from those of Ben-Gvir - though Smotrich is not nearly as talented a speaker as Ben-Gvir.  Smotrich's party currently has six seats in the Knesset.  At the start of the campaign, polling numbers were projecting that this party would not pass the threshold and would be ousted from the Knesset.  

Smotrich added Moshe Feiglin and his Zehut (Identity) party into the mix as his number 2 candidate.  Since then, most polls have put the RZP at anywhere from 4 to 7 seats.  I think there is a strong likelihood that they will make it into the Knesset.  My best guess would be 4 to 6.

That is more or less the roundup of the parties that are part of the current governing coalition.  If you add all of that up - it comes to a range of 44 to 54 seats. That is a fairly wide range. Sometimes an increase for one party would come at the expense of another party.  In other words, it is unlikely that each party in this coalition could maximize its numbers because the pool of voters they are all drawing from is the same pool.  

These numbers are not enough to form a government.  Netanyahu and the Likud would need to get at least 28-30 seats, in my view, to be able to form a government and they would need those seats to come from centrist voters rather than voters in Netanyahu's existing coalition.  There are three more parties to mention.

Vi. Amcha Yisrael

Led by Ofer Winter, this is another far-right nationalist party, that is largely indistinguishable in its views and policies from the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.  Winter has a much more developed military background. He held high ranking positions and, usually, sounds more rational than either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich.  He has campaigned on the platform that all members of the current government who were in power when October 7th happened should be replaced.  On the other hand - he says that he is a firm part of the right wing bloc - and the only leader he could support would be Netanyahu.  These two positions do not really go well together - and when Winter or anyone else in his party are asked about it - they get tongue-tied trying to explain their position.  They are hovering around the electoral threshold but I think that they are likely to wind up with 4 seats, maybe even 5.  However, these seats could come at the expense of Smotrich or Ben-Gvir.  So there is a chance that either Smotrich's party or Winter's party will make it in - and the other party will fail to pass.  If Amcha Yisrael, the RZP and Otzma Yehudit all make it into the Knesset, that will mean 14-18 far-right Knesset members - and they will all have to be part of a government for Netanyahu to stay in power.  In other words, Israel could wind up with an even further to the right government than it currently has.

Vii. Reservists / the Financial Party

This self-described right centre party is led by Yoaz Hendel and Economics professor Yaron Zelekha. Hendel is on the right centre of the Israeli political spectrum.  He holds a PhD in history and has been a very active reserve officer of the IDF.  Hendel has been strongly opposed to a government forming with Monsour Abbas in the coalition, which has meant that he is unlikely to hold the balance of power in a coalition government.  Up until recently, Hendel's party was polling at under the threshold.  They are now flirting with getting 4 seats.  They are a wild card since they could agree to join a Netanyahu government - or they could go with the opposition.  Ultimately, I don't think that they are going to pass the threshold but they could wind up with 4 or even 5 seats - which would make things really interesting.  These seats would probably come from the opposition - so I think if Hendel's party does get in - it is likely to mean lower numbers for the other opposition parties - or some of them.

Viii. National Unity - Benny Gantz

When Benny Gantz first arrived on the Israeli political scene - he was seen as a great hope for the centre of Israeli politics.  Someone who could take on Netanyahu and wrest away power from the Likud.  Gantz first got involved in politics in 2018 but kept his views very guarded.  He held an initial press conference to announce his candidacy but refused to provide any specifics of his new party's platforms or proposals.  At his peak in 2019, Gantz's party won 33 seats but could not form a government.  He eventually reached a rotation agreement with Netanyahu whereby he would serve as Minister of Defence in Netanyahu's government and then eventually Prime Minister.  The government collapsed and Gantz never got his rotation.

The perception of Gantz among many Israelis is that he is a weak leader who lacks the ability to stand up to Netanyahu's bullying tactics.  Although Gantz's party now has 12 seats in the Knesset, they are not projected by any of the polls to pass the electoral threshold.  Gantz has stubbornly refused to drop out since he is receiving state funds for his election campaign because of his seats from the 2022 election.  

I think it is highly unlikely that Gantz will pass the threshold.

If, somehow, 2 or 3 of these parties were to make it in - for example Amcha and the Reservists - and the Likud was at the high end of projections with 54 - they may be able to cobble together a government with 61-63 seats.  The other possibility is that the Netanyahu "mystique" works its magic closer to election day and Netanyahu surprises with 28-30 seats for the Likud.

I guess I have to go out on a limb.  After all, it is only fun to write blogs like this - if I actually put myself out there and make some predictions - even if they wind up being wrong.  I think that the entire Likud-led bloc, including Amcha and the others will be stuck at somewhere between 54 and 58 and unable to form a government.  

Which means we might be in for a stalemate and a new election after about 3-4 months.  But I will look at the opposition and go through their parties in a similar way.

I think I may have mentioned that this would be a lengthy blog.  Sorry but I hope you are finding it interesting.

B. The Opposition

i. Yashar - led by Eisenkot

The current opposition party that is leading in projected seats is the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli IDF general, whose son was killed in Gaza in the most recent war.

Eisenkot is considered a centrist on the Israeli political landscape.  Many commentators have written that the party's name "straight" is perfectly suited to Eisenkot - who is generally seen a person representing values of decency, integrity, service to the State of Israel - and devotion to his family.

Eisenkot is an advocate of equality values in Israel and has actively campaigned to ensure that more ultra-religious Jews are drafted into the army.

His party is polling at between 20 and 24 seats.  These are probably people who previously voted for Gantz or Lapid's party.

Netanyahu's main attack on Eisenkot is that he will not be able to form a government and will rely on anti-Zionist Arab parties.  Eisenkot has denied this and has pledged that his proposed coalition will get more than 61 seats.

He is not super-charismatic but he does project a sense of decency.  Faced with a skilled debater like Netanyahu, Eisenkot could wind up in a real fight.  But as a career military man, he is not one to shy away from a good fight.  He has lots of ammunition to use against Netanyahu and he has been willing to use it.

Since Eisenkot's party has never run - it will be interesting to see what actually happens on election day. Will they come in well ahead of the polls, well below the polls or right at their projected numbers .  This will really be a key determining factor as to whether Israel might see a change of government.  If Eisenkot can get 25 or more seats - and beat the Likud numbers - he might be able to piece together a government.

ii. Beyachad (Bennett and Lapid)

This is a really interesting party.  Made up of Naftali Bennet's party combined with Lapid's Yesh Atid - the party is a mishmash of centrists, right-centre politicians and slightly left-centre politicians.  The current Knesset had 23 Yesh Atid members and Bennet did not run in 2022.  Now the party is hovering around 12-14.  Bennett came from the right of the spectrum but is seen as someone who "sold out" by making a deal with Monsour Abbas to be able to form a government.  Bennett continues to describe himself has solidly in the right-wing camp. Some members of his own party pulled the plug on his previous government.  Lapid is seen by some right-centrists as too far to the left (even though he really isn't). So when Bennett and Lapid joined forces, their respective supporters felt alienated.  Nevertheless, Bennett is charismatic and thoughtful and has been campaigning all over the country - even in places where he is not popular.  Like Eisenkot, Bennett really does project a sense of decency and competency.  He could also surprise the pollsters with a higher than predicated showing.

iii.  Democrats

Not to be confused with the U.S. Democratic party, this party is a fusion of the old Israeli Labour Party, mixed together with the Meretz party - a far left secularist party.  Golan is a reserve Major General in the army. On October 7, 2023, he sprang into action, "re-enlisted" to the army, received a weapon and munitions and headed down to the Gaza envelope where he rescued several people.

Golan's party is the furthest left of any of the major Israeli parties running for election - other than the communist/ socialist Arab parties.  Golan is a strong advocate of equality of all types - gender equality, sexual orientation equality, religious equality and other forms.  His party is probably the only Jewish-Israeli party running that it is promoting a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute currently.

As a politician, Golan is much tougher and more "in your face" than Eisenkot.  His views are seen as extreme by a big chunk of the Israeli electorate.  He is someone who will never back down to any kind of Netanyahu pressure. 

One of the concerns that many potential Eisenkot voters are having is the concern that Eisenkot may turn into Gantz and get chewed up by Netanyahu.  Neither Bennett nor Golan are seen as having that concern.

The Israeli Labour party only has 4 seats in current Knesset.  Golan's party is now project to get 9 to 12.

iv. Yisrael Beitenu - "Israel is our Home" - led by Avigdor Lieberman

This party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, has significant support from the Russian community in Israel.

Lieberman is right wing on issues involving Palestinian-Jewish or Arab-Israeli disputes, though at one time in the past, he backed a plan to divide the country and have the Arab Israelis become part of any nascent Palestinian state or federation.

Lieberman is more libertarian on issues including separation of religion from the state, to some degree, and military service or the equivalent for all Israeli citizens.

As a former Likud party member, Lieberman worked closely with Netanyahu in several different governments and has held posts as Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Lieberman, like Bennett and Eisenkot, believes that he is running to be the Prime Minister and maintains that his experience and his right-wing credentials would make him a compromise candidate for the opposition.

In the current Knesset, Lieberman's party has 6 seats.  The party might make it to 8 or 9 based on recent polls but I am going to predict 6 to 8.

So if we add up these four opposition parties - we get to somewhere between 49 and 59.  Yes that is a wide range - and yes - the same issue applies to this bloc as it applied to the governing bloc. Some votes may come from other parties within the same coalition.

Ultimately, I have not seen any recent polls or projections that would give the opposition 61 seats.  

Are there are any other options?  Well, one option would be a deal with the Reservists - if they were to make it.  Let's say the Reservists had 5 and the opposition bloc had 56. That could get to 61 but would be a very shaky government, not likely to last.

Would Winter's party join?  He says absolutely not - that he is ONLY supporting Netanyahu. But he also says he wants a new government.  Could he be pried away from the Netanyahu bloc? Depending on the numbers, I don't think we could rule it out.

But, of course, there are still two more parties and two more options..

C. The Arab Parties

i. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, a devout Muslim, this has been the first Muslim-Arab Israeli party to show an interest in joining a Jewish-Israeli led government and playing an active role.

Abbas is a Muslim-Arab-Israeli - who grew up in Israel.  He is a dentist by profession who has studied at Hebrew University and University of Haifa.  He is, of course, fluent in Hebrew.

Abbas is a very skilled and tactful politician, who routinely appears on Hebrew language talk shows.  He is happy to answer all sorts of questions - and is often faced with hostility from the Israeli right wing.

Abbas has conservative views on social issues and has been willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. From many different assessments that I have read - he did a fine job as a minister in the relatively short-lived Bennett government - and I think he would make a great minister in a future government.

Perhaps that is not a popular view among many Israelis - especially those on the right of the political spectrum.

More recently - Abbas recruited Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Israeli retired police major general - to serve as his #2 candidate - which is really quite a fascinating step for an Arab Israeli party.  Segalovitz has strong security minded credentials and is not viewed as an extreme leftist. But he is now running as a high ranking member of the Ra'am party - which, I believe, is a first in Israeli politics.

Ra'am currently has five seats in the Israeli Knesset and I believe that they will wind up with 5 or 6 once again.  The question is whether they will wind up helping the opposition take control of the government.  So far, Lieberman, Eisenkot and Bennett have all opposed forming a government with Ra'am. But I don't think we can fully rule out some type of arrangement if that is what it will take to oust Netanyahu.

Joint List

This is a group of three Arab Israeli parties - Hadash, Balad and Ta'al.

Unlike Abbas' party, these three parties tend to be strongly anti-Zionist and opposed to any type of active participation in the government.

These parties are rooted in Arab nationalism, socialism or communism and a great deal of anti-Israel rhetoric.

In fact. this year, Sami Abu Shehadeh, who was the leader of the Balad party, was disqualified from running in the current election due to comments he made that were perceived as glorifying the October 7, 2026 massacres.  Abu Shehadeh appealed to the Supreme Court.  During the hearing, the President of the Court told Abu Shehadeh that the votes were there to expel him - and gave him the choice of withdrawing on his own - which he opted to do.  His party, Balad is still running.

These joint list parties could wind up with 10-15 seats in the Knesset but they have no interest in joining a "Zionist" government - and the Zionist parties have no interest in having them join.  

One could question whether this really benefits the Arab Israeli community.  Would they not be better off - adjusting some of their positions - and trying to join the government like Ra'am? Surely this would assist Arab Israelis far more than staying on the side lines.  But that is perhaps for another day.

Political Conclusion

Looking at all of the above, I have concluded that, as of October 13, 2026, the most likely outcome is a stalemate.  There will then be a fight over whether Netanyahu remains on as the interim Prime Minister until a new election can be held - or whether the opposition parties, including the Arab parties - will find a way to change the interim government.  I am going to put a stalemate at just about 50%.

I think, based on current numbers, the second most likely event is a Netanyahu government of some sort. I'll put that at about 30%.

Finally, that leaves the opposition - who I think is now sitting at only about a 20% chance of forming a government.

These are all wild guesses based on my analyses of polls, online articles, listening to various commentators and putting my finger up to the wind to gage some general Israeli sentiments that I am hearing.  But of course, we will have to wait until October 27th or perhaps the 28th or 29th to see where the numbers are at -and try to determine what will be happening next.

I hope you found this interesting.  It wound up being a lot longer than I expected - and taking a lot more time.  So much so that I will leave other topics to my next blog.

Fly Dubai Plane Attacked, Fiddler on the Roof and Israel Election comments 2026

I am not normally in the business of providing "breaking news" updates - since there is just too much to cover.  Almost every day brings some form of breaking news in Israel.  But this one is a bit different.

Attempted Suicide Attack on a Fly Dubai Plane to Israel

A Fly Dubai aircraft flying from Dubai to Israel was almost taken down today.  The story is still developing but there have been several interviews with passengers and those involved on Israel TV and radio.

Apparently, the co-pilot, an Omani national, who had been with Fly Dubai for only 8 months, used a hatchet to attack the pilot.  Reports indicate that it might have been the hatchet located in the cockpit for emergency use.  In any case, it appears that the pilot managed to press an emergency signal, indicating that the plane was being hijacked - and managed to release the cockpit door.

Details are still fuzzy but apparently three or four Israeli passengers jumped into action.  They ran to the cockpit, while the plane was rapidly descending, subdued the attacker, administered first aid to the injured pilot - and restored control of the plane to an alternate pilot crew that happened to be on the plane.

These quick thinking heroes saved the lives of close to two hundred passengers.  The rescuing passengers were covered in blood stains, though it is unclear whether any of them were injured themselves.  The plane landed at a remote airport in Saudi Arabia.  The passengers are apparently all safe and are on their way back to Israel on a Fly Dubai plane.

This does not give me a warm and  fuzzy feeling about flying Fly Dubai.  In all the years of going back and forth, I have not taken that route yet.  But my family members have, several times, without incident.  Because of the peace deal that Israel has with the UAE, and the financial benefits for both countries, I do believe that the UAE and Israel will work together to take extensive precautions to try to ensure that this will not occur again.  

Fiddler On the Roof

Fiddler on the Roof is one of my favourite plays.  I have had the  privilege of  seeing many different
versions of it. Some were wonderful, like the 2016 Broadway revival starring Danny Burstein.  Some were awful, like the 2004 Broadway revival starring Harvey Fierstein, who was woefully incapable of fulfilling the requirements of the starring role. This year, we saw the Yiddish production in Toronto.  This was fun because it was in Yiddish (with subtitles).  But it was a very minimalist set and not exactly a top tier cast.  

I have also seen the current Israeli production starring Natan Datner twice over the past seven years in Tel Aviv.  Last night, during Hol Hamoed Sukkot, we travelled to Beersheva (about an hour and half from Ra'anana) to see it once more.

It was once again, excellent. Datner is a fantastic Tevye.  He has a great voice, he is very convincing and he truly brings out the whole embodiment of the original Tevye.  The rest of the cast was also fantastic  - with only one exception, perhaps.  This production is continuing to play at different times through 2027.  If you are in Israel and have the chance to see it, I would strongly recommend it.

There is something particularly powerful about seeing Fiddler in Israel.  For so many people sitting in the audience, this is the story of their grandparents or great grandparents who immigrated to Israel from Europe, somewhere between the 1880s and the 1940s.  For others, they have family members who emigrated from Europe to other parts of the world, United States, Canada, South America during this same time period.

And for Jews who came to Israel from places all over the world, the themes of anti-Semitism and persecution are almost universal, whether it was from European countries or Arab and middle Eastern countries. 

And of course, the ultimate themes of the balance between tradition and modernity, the vanishing Jew, intermarriage and the challenges to the Jewish religion - these themes are also particularly relevant today.  While the challenge of intermarriage may speak more to the diaspora audiences than to those in Israel, Israelis are certainly well aware of the interplay between the traditions that their grandparents followed and the spread of secularism in Israel -  with a corresponding growth in 1800s European style ultra-orthodoxy for a growing but minority portion of the Israeli population.  

Thinking about all of these themes, I think it is easy to see why there were few dry eyes in the audience as Tevye's daughter Hodel left to take a train to Siberia to join her fiancé Perchik. Or  when Chava left the house to marry a non-Jew while Tevye grappled with what he could do  in this situation. And of course, the play ending with the villagers being forced out of Anatevka, following a pogrom, is always like a gut punch to so many Israelis and Jews around the world.

While many people have used Fiddler to draw more  universalist messages about tradition and  change, or about the place of the immigrant in a country - and the treatment of minorities - there is little doubt, especially when seeing this play in Israel, that it is quintessentially about the Jewish experience and its own particularistic messages - the dangers of antisemitism, the unviable state of being a people without a homeland and the constant challenges to Jewish religion and heritage including challenges of how to pass on these traditions to the next generation.

By the way, I note parenthetically, that this same conflict between particularistic and generalist messages is also something you see if you visit Yad Vashem (the Israeli Museum of the Holocaust) in Jerusalem and then you visit the Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C. But that is for a longer blog on a different day.

Politics

I do not have too much to say for this blog about Israeli politics.  I will dedicate a few blogs to the upcoming  election shortly.  But I thought I would mention a few things quickly.

As you might have heard, a few different newspapers and media outlets (TV, Radio) reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu was phoned and  warned about the upcoming October 7, 2023 Hamas Massacre - within about two weeks before the attacks.  Netanyahu has strenuously denied this and, apparently, flew to Dubai to meet with MBZ last week and ask MBZ to issue an official statement that the conversation never happened.  So far MBZ has not released any such statement.

However, sometimes the best defence is offence.  So Bibi decided to sue all of the media outlets that published the reports including Haaretz, Ynet and others.  He also sued a large number of individual reporters. One can assume that a big motive for this lawsuit is political. Netanyahu knows that his major weakness in the coming elections is being tied to the failures of October 7th and he wants to be able to pin the blame on everyone else - and take no responsibility. 

He is also trying to draw a parallel between his lawsuit and the one launched by Yair Golan.  As you may recall, Netanyahu's wife Sara held a TV interview in which she basically suggested that Golan, leader of the left-centre Democratic party - knew about the October 7 attacks in advance (or worse).  She accused Golan of being "dressed and ready" for the event even before it occurred.  These claims by Netanyahu do not appear to have been made based on any factual underpinnings.  Though we will wait to see how they are resolved, it is hard to imagine what kind of defence Sara Netanyahu will put forward, other than to argue that she has some sort of immunity or these allegations were "fair comment."  

On the other hand, the various reporters that claimed that Netanyahu was warned about October 7th, 2023, apparently based their information on sources that they could verify. If this was, in fact, all made up by the media outlets, that would be quite shocking and would be the basis for a big win for Netanyahu. If, on the other hand, it becomes the word of MBZ and his advisors against Netanyahu - well that will be really interesting.  

Lots more can be said about this but let's wait and see what, if anything, happens with these two lawsuits.

I will leave the political area by saying that I feel that we are in a current trend of votes moving to the right in Israel.  That does not mean that they are going to Netanyahu  - in fact - his support seems to have eroded significantly.  But voters seem to be moving, according to many polls, to the other smaller right wing parties that have vowed to support Netanyahu - including Ben Gvir's  party, Smotrich's party and the new "Amcha" party led by Winter.  

My other final comment is that the polls are all over the map.  The polls conducted by the pro-Bibi  channel 14 and channel 24 are showing the Likud party winning 30-32 seats and being able to form a government with 62-65 seats.

Almost  all of the other polling companies are showing the two blocs (pro and anti-Bibi) running in a much closer race.  Most polls are still showing Eisenkot and the Yashar party running  ahead of Netanyahu and his Likud party. When full coalition numbers are added in - it seems  to be very close -  with neither bloc currently forecast to form a government. But we still have almost four weeks.

Sports

The Israeli national soccer team was humiliated by Ireland last week 3-0 in the Nations Cup tournament - a game which was played on "neutral territory" in Hungary.  Israel will get a chance to avenge itself when it plays Ireland again on Sunday October 4th.  Before that, Israel will get a chance to pick up its first points of the tournament when it plays Kosovo tomorrow night (Thursday October 1st).  The Irish players wore black armbands and taunted the Israelis with allegations of genocide.  Let's just say that there were some heated exchanges between the players on the pitch.

Not sure that this current Israeli side will be up to the task of picking itself up by the cleats but it will need to do so in a hurry if it wants to have any chance of advancing in this tournament.  Israel also lost its opening match to Austria.  That match had been tied 1-1 in the 90th minute but the Austrian side scored two goals in extra time to take the three point win.

I was up late last night and watched the Montreal Canadiens defeat the Maple Leafs in the opening game of the NHL season for both of those teams.  Interestingly, Israeli TV was actually broadcasting this game. They rarely show Leafs or Canadiens' games - other than during the playoffs. I am not expecting much from the Leafs this year but I do think the Habs will be one of the top teams in the league.  

Baseball season is pretty much over for me with the Jays' exit.  I might watch a few playoff games here and there.  One of our family members was at the Yankees' game last night - which started as a pitching duel and turned into a major route.  I would certainly be happy to get to a Yankee's playoff game if I could do so - just for the experience.  Maybe some time in October....

The weather continues to be beautiful here  - mid to high 20s - though there are are reports of some rain.  Our Sukkah is getting some use - and we have managed to wave around the lulav and etrog a few times.  Mo'adim L'Simchah!

Sukkot Update 2026 - Yom Kippur, Sukkot, Sports and Other Stuff

Mo'adim L'Simchah!  Roughly translated to "wishing you a joyous holiday season" - that is the proper greeting during Sukkot on the "in-between" days (Hol-Hamoed) - the days that are not strictly "holy-days".  

In Israel, the first day of Sukkot and the holiday of Shemini Atzeret/Simchat Torah bookend the 8 day festival of Sukkot. Those days are "holy days," much like Shabbat - on which a wide variety of activity is restricted or prohibited.  The in-between days (This year, Sunday Sep 27 to Friday Oct 1) are in-between days, which are essentially part of the festival but not in the same category of "holy days."  

As a result, many (but certainly not all) Israelis are off work for the week.  Many families use the Hol- Hamoed days to travel around Israel.  There are festivals all over the country -  children's festivals, music festivals, wine festivals and all kinds  of other celebrations.

Outside of Israel, in the Diaspora, the first two days of Sukkot are observed as "chag" or "holy days."  As well, the last two days - Shemini Atzeret and Simchat Torah are separated and are also chag.  So the 9 day festival in the diaspora includes 4  holy days, while in Israel it only includes 2.  

Incidentally, the proper response to "Mo'adim L'Simchah" is "Chaggim u'zmanim l'sasson" - which is roughly - "yes, holidays and times of rejoicing!".  But if it is Chag, or right before Chag - the proper greeting is just Chag Sameach ("Happy holyday").  There will be a test on all of this later....

On Thursday, we visited the Sukkah-mart in Ra'anana.  This is an annual outdoor market, at which vendors have set up booths and tables and are selling all sorts of Sukkot related products - sets of the four species (a Lulav (palm frond), Etrog (citron - looks like a lemon),  haddas (myrtle branches) and arava (willow branches).  They are also selling pre-fab sukkot kits, lighting, decorations, decorative items including all sorts of hanging items, posters of famous rabbis, and all of other tchatchkas that you might use in a Sukkah.  Markets like this take place all over Israel during the week leading up to Sukkot.  It is actually quite a cool thing to attend.  

It reminds us how unique it is to be in Israel - a country in which Sukkot is widely celebrated as a major holiday - with such vibrancy, joy and, I suppose, accompanying commercialism. But it is really a bustling, happy, holiday.

In any event, we picked up our set of the four species (we couldn't wave it around until today since you don't wave the lulav around on Shabbat) and we also added some new decorations to our Sukkah.  Now we just have to add in the guests (various nights this week) and perhaps find time to have a  glass of wine or two - or a whiskey or two in the Sukkah to help "rejoice."  

Sports and Politics

I usually leave the sports news to the end - but this one is a bit interesting.  The Israeli national men's' football (soccer) team is participating in the Nations League tournament.  They are playing Ireland tonight at 9:45 p.m. Israel time (2:45 p.m. EST) at a stadium in Debrecen, Hungary.

The match has been attracting all sorts of attention due to calls in Ireland to boycott the match.  Some players have threatened not to play - and the Irish government has been pressured to cancel the match. 

Ireland, for some reason, has become one of Israel's most strident critics.  The country has no problem with so many other countries in the world that have far worse human rights' records, yet it has singled out Israel for a unique level of hatred.  Ireland has been boycotting the Eurovision contest (this will be the second year in a row) because of the inclusion of Israel - but so far, the country is still planning to play tonight's match. Recently, the Irish team played a friendly against Qatar and the only protestors were those protesting against Israel - even at a Qatar-Ireland match.

Hopefully, Hungary will provide proper security arrangements and keep our Israeli players safe.  It should be quite a scene.  I expect that the players will be booed by Irish fans that travel to the match and others  - with all kinds of anti-Israel chants - but hopefully the Israeli side will respond successfully to the pressure. Since it is Hungary (Israel's designated neutral site under EUEFA rules, perhaps some Israeli football fans will be in attendance.  The second match of the "home and home" series will take place in Serbia.  It seems to have been deemed unsafe to allow Ireland to host a match against Israel.

Incidentally, in "apartheid" Israel, the current leading scorer on the Israeli team is Sayed Abu Farchi, a 20 year old Israeli Muslim player, who has played for Maccabi Tel-Aviv and now plays for the Colorado Rapids in the MLS.  Farchi is a regular player on the Israeli national soccer team (along with a number of other Muslim-Israeli players as well as a number of Jewish Israeli team members). 

Since the Blue Jays are officially out of contention, my baseball watching season is mostly over - I might watch the odd playoff game if something looks interesting.  Instead, it is now NFL football and, soon, ice hockey.  I'll have to switch back and forth tonight between the soccer match and the Bills vs Chargers game (Bills are off to a great start so far).

Yom Kippur News

Lots of news from all over the world from Yom Kippur, which was observed on Monday September 21, 2026.

In Toronto, Jews who were attending services at the Song Shul, which uses the North York Meridian Centre for its annual high holiday services, were met with a couple of dozen pro-Palestinian demonstrators screaming insults at them as they arrived to attend services.  The police apparently stood by smiling, at least according to some reports.

The claim is that they were protesting because Mark Regev was going to speak during the service. Regev is a former Israeli ambassador to the UK (2016  to 2020) and a former spokesperson for the Israeli Prime Minister's office (2007-2016).

Regev has not been a member of the current Israeli government though he has publicly defended Israeli actions in response to the October 7, 2023 massacre and has publicly denied that Israel's actions can be labelled a "genocide."  

The craziest thing is that a CBC reporter, Neil Herland, was on his way to attend this service at the Song Shul.  As he arrived at the shul and saw this mob of protesters, he decided to pull out his phone, collect  some video footage and post it on-line, with some of his thoughts.  Incredibly, the CBC apparently suspended him because of this, in response to pressure from so Pro-Palestinian groups.  I suppose it did not fit the CBC's well documented anti-Israel programming directives.  The event is shocking (the protest and the suspension of Herland) and has made the news  here in Israel as an example of the complete craziness that is taking place in Canada.   

It seems to me that at a very minimum, the police should have put up a barrier some reasonable distance away from the entrance and kept the protesters away from the arriving worshippers.  Moreover, the CBC should have showed the protest on-line including broadcasting the types of anti-Semitic comments that were being hurled - rather then shooting the messenger.

There was also a shooting at a the Sons of Jacob Synagogue in Belleville. A police offer was shot and injured while protecting the Synagogue.  The shooter was shot by police and later died.  That also took place on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the year on the Jewish calendar.

These are frightening incidents for Canadian Jews, who are not being helped by the increasingly shrill anti-Israel rhetoric coming from Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Federal Liberal cohorts and from Toronto's Mayor Olivia Chow. Looking at events over the past three years - including the vandalism campaign against Indigo Books led by York University professor Leslie Wood (criminal charges were eventually dropped), the months-long  encampment at the University of Toronto targeting Jewish students and a wide array of other incidents, there is certainly a palpable sense that the Toronto Jewish community is far less safe than it once was.   

On the other hand, there are extremists in Israel as well.  In Jerusalem, a reform congregation, Kol Haneshama, was attacked just before Yom Kippur and just after - and was egged on Rosh Hashanah. The congregation has a wide array of video surveillance equipment  (since it has been attacked several times in the past).  It promptly turned the footage over to police and the Times of Israel reported that three minors were arrested. The perpetrators were dressed as observant orthodox Jews, though further information about the suspects has not been released.  Reform and Masorti (Conservative) shuls across Israel are often subjected to attacks and vandalism. 

I guess the difference is that here we have a government and police force that are often (though not always) willing to take steps to arrest the perpetrators and take appropriate legal action.

Politics Update

Israeli political news continues to fascinate.  As we get closer to the election - which is exactly one month away, I will include a rundown of the various parties and their respective positions.

As of today, there are some interesting developments.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's own party, the Likud, seems to be losing popularity.  Five recent polls have shown Likud winning between 18 and 21 seats.  Two polls, commissioned by more Likud-friendly pollsters have the Likud at 27 to 31 seats.  I suppose we won't really know who is right until we get the actual election night results.

The same polls that show Likud at the lower numbers - indicate that his current coalition could be at 45 to 49 seats in the Knesset, 12 to 16 seats short of the 61  needed to form  a  government.

The opposition party led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar, has been polling at 22-23 - in all of the polls, including the Likud-friendly polls.  The party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet is polling at 11-13 in some polls - but only 7-9 in the more "Bibi-Friendly" polls. Overall, the anti-Likud coalition, made up of the various opposition parties is polling at 52-56 in one set of polls and 45-47 in the Bibi-friendly polls.

So one take-away is that neither coalition seems poised to form a government. If these results turn out to be accurate, we could wind up with a stalemate and perhaps another election.

A second take-away is that the voters moving away from Bibi are moving, generally, to other right wing parties - that are still willing to support Bibi as the Prime Minister.  Overall, the anti-Bibi coalition does not seem to be picking up traction from undecided or other voters who might be willing to shift between Likud and one of the more  centrist parties

All that being said, a month is a lot of time in politics and I am sure we will see lots  of interesting developments.

October 7th

We are approaching the three year anniversary of the horrible October 7, 2023 massacre by Hamas of Israeli civilians and concert goers and the attacks on some military bases.  A major memorial event will be taking place in Tel-Aviv this year and will feature a who's who of Israeli musicians.  The organizers have indicated that they are focusing on running the event as a memorial event and not  a political event - even though it is just three weeks before the election.  I am not sure if people in North America will be able to watch it easily but it may be broadcast on N12.co.il which is a good site for watching live Israeli news (in Hebrew).  That will probably start at about 1 p.m.  EST or perhaps as early as 12 p.m. Details to follow.

I think that is about it for now.  Need to start thinking about what to eat for dinner tonight in the Sukkah, how to watch the Israeli national soccer team play Ireland and the Buffalo Bills play the Chargers at the same time - and how many guests we can squeeze into the Sukkah over the next few days - while also getting some work done. Mo'adim L'Simchah!

 

Pre-Rosh Hashanah Blog 2026 - Politics, Wineries and Other Comments

I promised that I would try to put together another blog after the big milestone date on the Israeli election calendar - but ultimately, it was anti-climactic.  So my election thoughts will be a bit shorter than expected and I will see what else I come up with.

Election News

As I discussed in my last blog, Tuesday Sep 8th was the closing date by which all Israeli parties had to announce their final lists for the October 27, 2026 general elections in Israel.  Many people were expecting that there would be some surprises and that some parties would join together at the last minute.  But nothing major materialized.  The day came and went. The slates are now settled and lots can happen between October 27, 2026 but it was not nearly as gripping a news day as I had anticipated.

38 different parties submitted lists.  Of these, most current election polls are predicting that between 11 and 13 parties will actually make it into the Knesset by accumulating at least 3.25% of the popular vote. That gives a party 4 seats in the Knesset, which is the minimum entry point.

One party that is unlikely to make it into the Knesset, as of now, is the Blue and White Party, led by Benny Gantz. Gantz led a party that received more than 30 seats in multiple past elections.  But, despite running on an anti-Netanyahu platform, he twice joined Netanyahu-led governments, one of them which promised him a rotation as Prime Minister that never materialized.  Gantz's support has plummeted and he is viewed as unlikely to make it past the threshold.  Because he had several seats for his party at the time of the dissolution of the Knesset, he still has significant state money to use for his election campaign.  Even though many people were encouraging him to drop out of the race - or to join another party, he refused - or could not come up with a viable alternative.  He is now polling at approximately 1.1 to 1.4%, well below the required minimum support. His votes will likely be wasted and they are most likely to come from centrist voters.

A second party that is close is the "Miluimnikim" (the "Reservists") - a party dedicated to supporting reserve duty soldiers - and bringing down the cost of living.  They are led by Yoaz Hendel - who is well known for having pulled the plug on Bennett's first attempt to negotiate a government by making a deal with the Ra'am party. Hendel recently added economist Ron Zelekha.  It is unclear what really differentiates this party from some of the others.  They have been polling at 1% to 3.5% - so they actually could make it into the Knesset and wind up with 4 seats, possibly even 5.  They are a bit of a wildcard and could opt to go with Netanyahu or with Eisenkot.  It is a bit unclear who they are fighting with over seats - but it may well be Eisenkot, Liberman and others in the "anti-Netanyahu" camp.

The other parties that are close are two of the extreme right wing parties - the "Your Nation Israel" party, led by Ofer Winter and the Religious Zionist Party led by Betzalel Smotrich.  Both parties bolstered their ranks by adding some well known names. They are both hovering between not getting in to the Knesset and getting as many as 6 seats.  If both parties get in, that will probably be good for Netanyahu's bloc as neither party is likely to join an Eisenkot-led coalition (though Winter might be a possibility in my view).  If one of these parties does not pass, the votes would be redistributed proportionately and that would be good for the opposition.   

To complete the election news for now, the current polling is indecisive.  The Netanyahu bloc is running at anywhere from 49 to 53 seats (with 61 needed to form a government) and the opposition bloc is running at anywhere from 52 to 57. One poll last week gave the opposition 61 but I think it is way too early for anyone to consider that authoritative.  Stay tuned for more election news as we get closer.

Two Election Related Events

As I discussed  in my blog last week, one event that has been attracting a great deal of attention is the interview with Sara Netanyahu on September 5th.  In the interview, she basically suggested that Democratic Party leader Yair Golan was involved in a conspiracy connected with the October 7, 2023 attacks - that he was already in his uniform and at the site of the fighting on the morning of October 7, 2023, even before anyone else knew what was going on, including Sara Netanyahu's husband Prime Minister Netanyahu.

All of this is demonstrably false. People with Yair Golan know what time he was called (right when the attacks began), what he did etc.,  His phone shows when he received the calls.  Other records back up his timing. He definitely jumped into action as quickly as he could to go and try to save Israelis, especially many of the young Israelis who had been at the  Nova Music festival.  But only after he was called and informed about what was going on. He endangered himself and saved lives.  His actions can only be described as heroic.  

Sara Netanyahu's suggestions are completely unhinged - but they do appear to be part of a broader strategy being used by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his family.  The strategy is to distance himself  from October 7, 2023, claim that he did not know about it and bears no responsibility and at the same time - to blame the opposition parties, the army, the intelligence and anyone and everyone else and claim they were all involved in a conspiracy.  

Yair Golan immediately issued a libel warning right after the interview - requesting an apology.  Sara Netanyahu doubled down on her accusations. Today, Golan sued Sara Netanyahu for libel and slander for 2.5 million shekels - with the funds to go to communities affected by the Oct 7, 2023 attacks.  It seems like a slam dunk case to me - since the only apparent defence will be to try and argue that the words used by Sara Netanyahu didn't actually convey what everyone listening thought they conveyed.  I guess you never know which judges you might draw but I would imagine it will be settled at some point well before a trial.

Yair Golan is contrasting what he did on the morning of Oct 7 - jumped into action, endangered himself and saved lives - with the schedule of Netanyahu, who appears to have done little, if anything, between 6:20 a.m. and 10 a.m.  The records released last week show that he only spoke to the army commander for the first time at close to 10 a.m. - more than 3 hours after the attacks had begun.  So Sara Netanyahu is partially right to suggest that her husband didn't know or wasn't doing anything - while Golan was at the scene fighting - but it is not because Golan was part of a conspiracy.

The other big "bombshell" was the Haaretz report that days before the October 7, 2023 attacks, UAE leader Ben Zayed called Netanyahu and warned him that Hamas was planning a major attack very soon. The Haaretz report alleges that Netanyahu failed to take any action and did not share the information with his intelligence or  army officials - but instead simply told Ben Zayed that Israel was fully prepared.

When the report first came out, there was no reaction from Netanyahu or his office.  Shortly afterwards, he called the report categorically false and said that he had no such conversation with Ben Zayed at any time.  Sources from the  UAE have apparently backed up the Haaretz report and Haaretz has stood by its story.  

Israelis on the right of the spectrum have jumped to Netanyahu's defence - and attacked Haaretz and the story itself - calling  it a political ploy, a blatant lie etc., Some of the well known bloggers have rushed to bolster Netanyahu - arguing that after all, if Netanyahu says something is false, we must believe him.

Now it is true that Haaretz has some very extreme writers, including some self-hating reporters who seem to wish for the end of the State of Israel.  But there is a difference between opinion pieces and news articles.  Haaretz claims that this was an extensively researched story with a wide variety of sources that have been corroborated.

Meanwhile, Bibi has threatened to launch a libel and slander lawsuit against Haaretz.  I assume that we could try to get Ben Zayed to testify at that trial, if the trial takes place - and if Ben Zayed would agree to come - that would be fascinating.

I am obviously not in any position to make any conclusions about this story at this point - but I do think that there should be enough witnesses who could help determine whether or not the story is true. 

This is very different from the Sara Netanyahu statements - since her statements were,  mostly, demonstrably false factually, intended to harm Yair Golan and completely uncorroborated.

It remains to be seen whether Bibi will proceed with his lawsuit against Haaretz and what will happen.  It seems unlikely that Haaretz will back down so quickly - so that could be really interesting.

Pre-Rosh Hashanah - Winery Visits

We had occasion to visit two more wineries this week - partially as a bit of a farewell trip for one of our family members who was leaving for a while - and partially to help stock up for Rosh Hashanah.

Kamisa Winery

We visited the Kamisa Winery, which is located in the Upper Galilee in Dalton, Israel.  The winery has an on-site Kosher Mehadrin restaurant - with a variety of offerings emphasizing locally grown ingredients including beef from locally raised cattle. 

We did not do a formal wine tasting but instead enjoyed a nice meal at the restaurant. The steak and chicken were cooked perfectly, the focaccia bread was delicious, as were a few other side dishes and appetizers and the servers were friendly and attentive.  The wines were tasty and we wound up picking up a few bottles for the upcoming festive meals.  We had never been here before - and we would strongly recommend it - especially for those looking for a nice kosher meat meal up north - accompanied by some tasty wine.  This is not a low cost experience - but priced comparably to other Israeli restaurants with a similar menu.  

Bazelet HaGolan

Earlier in the day, we had visited the Bazelet HaGolan Winery, which is located in Kidmat Tzvi in northern Israel.  The winery premises are beautiful and the visitors' centre is quite an attractive place.  We ordered the tasting package of 7 wines and the accompanying "generous" cheese and  bread plate.

It may be that we were there on an off-day  - or that the winery is just set up differently. Our host was a friendly young gentleman but unfortunately, he had nothing to say about the wines, the grapes, the winery or the winemaking process. Very different from many of the Israeli wineries that we visit.  He more or less just poured the wine and told us the name of the wine that was listed on the bottle.

We enjoyed a chardonnay to start, which was actually a 2019 chardonnay - priced at 150 shekels a bottle.  It was quite tasty. After that, we tried two Rose wines - one which had no depth at all and one which had a funny smell to it. Of the four reds we tasted, we enjoyed two of them quite a bit.  One was a blend of Cabernet and Merlot called "Magma."  We wound up buying two bottles of this wine to take home.  The other was a reserve Cabernet.  We had less luck with two other bottles that we tasted.

The bread and cheese plate was only so-so, not particularly "generous" as described or varied.  Overall, our experience was mixed. Some of the wines were quite good - some less so. But I suppose that is often the case with wineries. These things are also a matter of individual taste.

Chocolate Factory

While up north, we also made a stop at the De Karina chocolate factory in Ein Zevan and loaded up on a bunch of chocolate - all Kosher - some pareve and some dairy.  We mostly tend to buy pareve (non-dairy) chocolate as we prefer the taste (we are not big milk chocolate eaters).  But pareve chocolate also allows more flexibility for baking and making other desserts.  The visitors centre is pretty large with lots of different offerings - including truffles, chocolate bars, hot and cold beverages and even some wines and liqueurs from nearby producers. We did not stay long but it was a nice place to stop at if you are in the area.

I don't have much in the way of sports news to report other than that I am trying to follow the Blue Jays by watching some very late night games (using streaming) as they remain in the hunt for a wild card playoff spot.  NFL season began last night - and the Israeli channels do show NFL games (unlike baseball games - which they do not show very often at all).  So if I am up at 3:30 a.m. tonight - I could watch the 49'ers vs Rams game - which is being played in Melbourne Australia.  Otherwise, perhaps I can watch the Bills play on Sunday -since the game will be played after the second day of Rosh Hashanah ends here.

Rosh Hashanah begins tomorrow night - and takes place on Saturday Sep 12 and Sunday Sep 13 this year.  In case you are wondering, Rosh Hashanah is two days in Israel - unlike the other holidays (Sukkot, Shavuot and Pesach) that are two days outside of Israel but only one day in Israel. (To be a bit more exact, the first two and last two days of Sukkot and Pesach are holy days outside of Israel - but in Israel only the first day and last day are holy days).

If Rosh Hashanah was only one day in Israel - we would  not get to hear the shofar blowing when the holiday falls on Shabbat - which would be most unfortunate for a holiday that is also known as the Holiday of the Shofar Blowing. 

Interestingly, in Israel, people often wish each other "Chag Sameach" - "Happy Holiday"  before Rosh Hashanah - which outside of Israel usually attracts different greetings.  Happy New Year, perhaps - or "May you be inscribed in the book of life" (or variants of that).  In fact, I was in a supermarket a couple of years ago and the clerks were wishing everyone a "Happy Holiday" two days before Yom Kippur.  That was a bit strange to me.

Some bars in Tel-Aviv and other places around the country have "New Year's" events on Rosh Hashanah and many Israelis have dinner with their families and then head out to engage in some other form of entertainment.  Of course that does not apply to the more observant communities - but there is quite a wide cross-section of how people observe the holidays in Israel.  

However you might be observing or not observing the holiday - I wish everyone a happy and  healthy new year - with the hope of more peaceful times here in Israel and around the world. We continue to pray that the  sounds of the shofar, which will ring out on Sunday this year - will herald an era of much better times for all of us.