Israeli Elections Are Coming - October 27, 2026

Israeli Elections Are Coming - October 27, 2026

The official date has been set for the next Israeli elections.  The voting will be conducted on October 27, 2026, which is a full four years from the date of the last Israeli elections - a complete term.  As you probably know, Israel's parliamentary system is a parliamentary democracy - similar to Canada or the UK  Unlike Canada and UK, there are no ridings or districts - all of the Knesset seats are based on the results of the popular vote.  The party that can patch together a majority of the Knesset (61 out of 120 seats) gets to govern for as long as they can keep their coalition together up to a maximum of exactly four years. Unlike Canada, they actually have to have formal coalition agreements in place to be able to exercise the powers of a government.  

Many Israeli governments have dissolved well before the end of their maximum terms.  Mostly, it is because the  coalition system requires back and forth compromises.  Usually, in Israeli politics, some of the parties in the coalition become upset with the deals that they made at some point - or claim that the government is not living up to the terms - and they pull the plug on the coalition and cause an election to take place earlier. Very few Israeli governments have actually lasted the full term.

This particular government was made up of the Likud (Netanyahu's party), two ultra-religious parties, and two far right nationalist parties.  Quite simply, if any of the constituent parties had pulled the plug earlier, they may have found themselves in a much worse position politically. Essentially, this meant that the coalition in power wanted to keep the government together as long as possible to be able to enact whatever legislation they could while still being able to do so.

Now that the election has been set for October 27, 2026, the governing coalition is in a frenzy.  They are running out of time to pass all of the wonderful legislation that they had hoped to pass - so they are desperately throwing around new bills and hoping that they can somehow get them through the Knesset before dissolution - which is this coming Thursday - July 16, 2026.

What  kinds of laws?  The law declaring the "Study of Torah" to be part of the Basic Law (the closest thing Israel has to a constitution) of the State of Israel, which the ultra-religious are hoping they can use to avoid the military draft.  The "Draft Dodger Immunity Bill" to grant a period of immunity of 90 days for those who are arrested for avoiding military draft.  The Kosher Protection Law seeking to bolster  the monopoly of the ultra-religious over the Kosher certification process in Israel and reverse the previous partial de-monopolization enacted by the Bennett government. The "Media Overhaul bill" - to give the government greater control over broadcast media and news sites.  The "AG Power Reduction Bill" - to limit the power of Israel's Attorney General and state that the opinions of the AG will no longer be binding.  The "Oct 7th Inquiry Bill"  - to set up a "political" state inquiry rather than an objective national inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023. Some of the names of these bills maybe be packaged up and given more palatable names - but this is a partial list of the collection of dangerous legislation that this government is seeking to enshrine on its way out the  door.  I guess it remains to be seen how much of it will actually pass. Some of these bills are likely to be viewed as unacceptable even by Likud stalwarts - which might mean that the governing coalition may not be able to pass them - even  with a majority.  Netanyahu is likely to pull out all of the stops for those bills that he views as important - and pressure his MKs in every which way - but he is unlikely to do that for the whole panoply of legislative initiatives.

If Netanyahu is actually defeated at some point, the likely first order of business of just about any new alternate  government would be to overturn all of these pieces of legislation immediately.

The Political Landscape

As of the time of writing this blog, a new Israeli party is gathering support  - and showing up in the polls as tied with or ahead of Netanyahu's party - the Likud Party. Gadi Eisenkot's party "Yashar" (Straightforward/ honest) is gaining significant momentum. Eisenkot is a former Chief of Staff of the  Israeli army. One of his sons was killed in the recent Gaza war.  Eisenkot is viewed as much more of a centrist than Netanyahu and is likely to build a coalition with the various opposition parties if he winds up with enough seats to do so.

Naftali Bennett is leading the next most popular opposition party, which is a combination of Bennett's party and Yair Lapid's party and is called "Together."  Bennett served as Israel's Prime Minister from 2021 to 2022 - with a diverse coalition of parties from across the political spectrum including an Arab party. Bennett himself is perceived as centre-right - if  not hard right - and many of his voters seem unhappy that he has joined an official coalition with Lapid, who is viewed as further to the left - though still quite a centrist.

Based on current polls, the opposition parties are expected to win somewhere between 55 and 58 seats, though quite a lot could change between now and October 27, 2026.  That would still put them 3 to 6 seats short of a government.

On the other hand, Netanyahu's coalition seems to be running at between 50 and 55 seats, which put them at between 6 and 11 seats short. 

So we could have a stalemate, as we did on a number of occasions before the 2022 election, which could lead to a few elections in a row - until one side or the other can form a government.

Stay tuned - lots of fascinating political news is likely to come out of Israel in the coming months.

Sports

I know some of you skip over my sports updates - but I like to include them anyways.

Israel's Under 20 women's basketball team made it to the finals in Europe for the first time ever.  They lost last night - 79-66 to France but still secured a silver medal - which was the first medal that an Israeli national women's team has ever won in basketball.  

As you know, the FIFA World Cup is into its last week - with the finals scheduled for Sunday July 19th.  Although I am not normally a huge football/soccer fan, I have been watching the World Cup for many years.  In 1986, I travelled through Europe with a friend of mine - and there were TVs set up everywhere - in train stations, restaurants, all kind of public places.  We watched a fair bit then - and really since that time - I have always enjoyed the World Cup.

FIFA is plagued with anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiments.  After Argentina beat Egypt on July 7th, the Egyptian coach had a tantrum, claiming that it was a conspiracy against Egypt.  Supporters went further blaming the world wide Jewish conspiracy (whatever that is) for their loss.  They claimed that since Messi has actually visited Israel and the Kotel (the Western Wall), Argentina is being "helped" by FIFA which is being controlled by the Jews. Does it get any more far fetched? 

The Swiss also lost to Argentina and were also unhappy with the officiating.  So far, I haven't heard them blame the Jews though they have claimed that there is a bias towards Argentina and Messi (who happens to bring in billions of viewers).  I guess we will see what happens on Wednesday when England plays Argentina.  Given that many consider Messi the GOAT, it is quite conceivable that he will carry Argentina to victory over England - with or without the help of the "worldwide Jewish conspiracy."

Irrespective, Israelis are definitely glued to their TVs across the country when World Cup soccer matches are on.  I can only imagine how crazy it would be if Israel were to make it to the World Cup again.  It is very difficult for Israel to do so, since Israel has to compete against European teams. The Asian and  Middle Eastern teams - who should be Israel's competition - refuse to play against Israel.  This includes many teams that made it this year - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Qatar, Jordan and others. If Israel had been able to compete in this group for its chance at a berth, it is likely that Israel would have been in the World Cup. Maybe one day.

Travel to Israel

Travel to Israel is still quite difficult, especially during high season in summer.

El Al is still flying direct from the U.S. and many places in Europe but tickets are hard to find and the prices are insane. Some budget airlines like Wizz Air, Blue Bird, Israir, Arkia and others are also flying but, let's just say, it is not very much fun to fly on those airlines.  We wound up taking EasyJet from London to Crete - and then Aegean from Crete to Tel-Aviv.  That was not ideal but there was simply nothing available.

Crete is a very nice place to visit but very little remains of any kind of Jewish life or history there.  There is a Chabad in Chania that will provide Kosher meals on order and hosts a Friday night dinner.  We did not make it there. But so many restaurants in Crete have vegetarian and pescetarian options that it was quite easy for us to eat there.

Air Canada is scheduled to restart its flights in late October - but I will believe it when I see it. Apparently, Lufthansa, Austrian and Swiss all restarted service effective July 1, 2026 but I can't verify that. Air France is apparently also flying  several times a week now, as are Etihad and Emirates.

If you are planning a visit to Israel - you are probably best off to book El Al from somewhere in Europe - Rome, Athens or Frankfurt - and to connect to that place on another airline.  If you buy El Al tickets far enough in advance, the prices can be moderate to reasonable and you are almost assured that you will get here.  With any of the other airlines - it is really up in the air as to whether they will actually fly on any particular date in the future.

War Resumption?

As you probably know, the U.S. and Iran are still fighting, primarily over the Hormuz Strait at this point. I think the pattern goes like this - Iran attacks commercial boats in the Hormuz, the U.S. responds by attacking targets in Iran, particularly around port cities - and Iran then responds by sending  drone attacks to neighbouring gulf states.  So far, Iran has not attacked Israel directly, though Israel is certainly on high alert.  Although most Israelis seem to be going about their business, there is unquestionably some concern that this whole thing could ignite at any time.

Israel is still involved in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah even while trying to negotiate a peace deal with Lebanon (which would include  ensuring that the Lebanese army controls its borders and disarms Hezbollah) and is still involved in fighting in Gaza.

It is hard to see how or when these various conflicts will come to a close.

Qatar

We watched a riveting Israeli documentary on Qatar called "Enemies" produced by Israel's channel 11, somewhat equivalent to a PBS in the U.S., though channel 11 receives state funding.  The program traced Qatar's funding of Hamas since 2018 - pursuant to an agreement with Netanyahu - whereby Qatar would send money, briefcases full of cash, to Gaza under the guise of "humanitarian assistance."  The program claimed that Netanyahu knew that Hamas was using the money to build tunnels under Gaza.

The program documented how Qatar's leadership, led by Sheikhah Hormoza (Moza bint Nasser), has paid off lawmakers in the U.S. and Israel to allow Qatar to develop its agenda. This has also included donating enormous amounts of money to U.S. colleges in exchange for influence as well as outright bribes of government officials.  

The donation of an airplane by Qatar to the U.S. to be used as the new Air Force One plane is only one example of outright bribery - out in the open.  How could the U.S. government accept this type of gift from anyone?  What did the U.S.  give Qatar in exchange? 

Ultimately, the documentary claimed that it was clear that Qatar knew about and helped Hamas to plan the October 7, 2023 attacks and massacres in Israel.  The day after the attacks, on October 8, 2023, Netanyahu sent Yossi Cohen  (former head of the Israeli Mossad) to Qatar. Rather than threaten the Qataris and  demand the immediate release of all of the hostages - or risk an attack on Qatar - Cohen transferred a warm note of greetings to Sheikah Hermoza. In fact, pro-Hamas demonstrations began at campuses all across the U.S. on October 8, 2023, just after the attacks - and before Israel had responded in any way.

The program suggested that Qatar was acting as both the arsonists and the firefighters at the same time. Only when Israel conducted an assassination attempt in Doha on the leadership of Hamas, Qatar showed a willingness to trade some of its support for Hamas for better security arrangements with the United States.

All in all, this was a frightening program. It is even more frightening  knowing that Netanyahu had some of his close confidants working for the Qatari government, some of whom have now become the focus of a police investigation and  charges.  The conclusion of the program was that Qatar has been willing to pay so much money to support its goals - that it can buy off just about anyone. 

Conclusion

Despite all of the "heavy" political news, the weather is beautiful in Israel and Israelis are flocking to the beach.  

It will be Tisha B'Av next week on July 22nd (at night) and  July 23, which is one of the saddest days of the year, where we commemorate the destruction of the great Temples in Jerusalem.  I am planning to attend an evening program in Jerusalem including lectures, prayer and singing with the Masorti movement at the Kotel (I assume the Davidson Centre section).

On August 20, 2026, the Jerusalem wine festival is scheduled to start at the Israel Museum. This is a wonderful event with the opportunity to taste many different Israeli wines - while enjoying a view of the city and some amazing Jerusalem summer weather - it cools down nicely in the evening.

I hope that we will be back from Toronto in time to attend - for one of the nights.

There is lots more to write - but I think this is about it for now.  I will wish everyone the best and hope to add more shortly - hopefully with more humour next time. Best regards.

Pre-Shavuot 2026 - Eurovision, Pre-Election, Wars and More

Tori Avey's Blintzes

Hello from Ra'anana Israel on this very hot Monday.  It's a lukewarm 28c today (84F).  Lukewarm for late May in Israel.  It probably won't drop too much below this temperature after this week until sometime in October - though there are reports of only 23-25C (76-77F) for a couple of days this week.  I see from the weather reports that Toronto is supposed to enjoy a scorching 27C this afternoon but then cool off with a lovely 12-14C for the rest of the week. 

It is not a long weekend here in Israel.  In fact, Israel never really has long weekends unless they are part of Jewish religious holidays.  For that matter - Sunday was a normal work day (as it always is here in Israel). But since my work schedule is based in Canada - I get the day off today.  Can rest up a bit before watching the Montreal Canadiens play game 7 vs the Buffalo Sabres at 2:30 a.m. tonight. Hoping for the best - and that I will still have a Canadian hockey team to watch in these NHL playoffs even if that means a major disruption to my sleep patterns.

This blog may be a bit of a smorgasbord as there are so many topics to cover. So I will write about whatever I think might be interesting and leave you to decide whether my selections match up with your tastes.  

Eurovision

I have to start with Eurovision, the annual shlock fest in Europe.  As you might have heard, the Israeli singer Noam Bettan, finished in second place with his song Michelle, which he sang in French, Hebrew and English.

Bettan is 28 years old, the son of immigrants to Israel from France.  His family immigrated to Ra'anana (some people say that is only 15 minutes away from Israel - partially because of the high number of immigrants living in Ra'anana from western countries).

Bettan went to high school with a family member of ours - and was known to enjoy the famous chocolate chip cookies made by another family member.  (As they say in Hebrew, those who know, know). ("Hamevin yavin").

In any case, this was the 70th anniversary edition of Eurovision - the annual European song contest which also includes Israel and Australia. Eurovision has been using the motto "United by Music" since 2023 - but this year - the contest was definitely not united.

Despite pressure from anti-Israel activists, the contest rejected efforts to oust Israel from the contest, led by such moral luminaries as Spain (which still hasn't come to terms with its 1492 Inquisition and Expulsion of  its Jewish population).  When the efforts of the anti-Israel coalition failed, five of the protagonists boycotted the contest and withdrew over the issue - Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, Iceland and the Netherlands.  That left 35 countries participating in the contest, of which 25 made it to the final.

Israel's 2nd place finish was the second consecutive runner-up finish for Israel - and Israel's fourth time finishing in the top  5 in the past 5 years.  Israel last won the contest in 2018 with "Toy" sung by Netta Barzilai.  Over the 70 year history of the contest, Israel has won four times.

The contest is known for spring-boarding the careers of many musical artists including Abba, which sang Waterloo in 1974 and Celine Dione who successfully represented Switzerland in 1988 to capture first place.  Dione was not Swiss (she was Canadian of course) but at the time, as long as the composer and lyricist were from the country - the country could engage a performer from any foreign country. I have been waiting for my phone call with the opportunity to sing for Lithuania, Romania or maybe even Montenegro - but apparently Eurovision has since changed the rules and you have be a citizen of the country you wish to represent vocally.  I think it's too late for me to carry the flag for Israel - and the competition is too steep, but who knows, maybe one of our three kids? One day?

Over the past few years, the issue of Israel's participation has created dramatic tension inside and outside of the event venues.  It is true that Eurovision kicked out Russia in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine - which was an arguably unprovoked invasion.  One could argue about geopolitical reasons for Russia's actions but I think it is fairly difficult to argue that this was anything but unprovoked. Ukraine had not attacked or threatened to attack Russia in any way even though Ukraine was looking to join NATO.

On the other hand, Israel was attacked on October 7, 2023 by Hamas/Gaza - which Israel had left in 2005.  Israel was also attacked, simultaneously or shortly afterwards by Yemen, Hezbollah (Lebanon) and groups from Syria and  Iraq, all sponsored and trained by Iran, which ultimately entered the war directly.  More than 1000 Israelis were murdered in these initial attacks, many of whom were civilians and many of whom were tortured to death.  The idea that Israel should be ostracized and subject to bans and boycotts because it responded with strength to these massive attacks is really quite obnoxious. Thankfully, most European countries rejected this call and refused to boycott the contest over the issue.  In fact, the winner of the contest, a singer from Bulgaria, Dara, who sang "Bangaranga" spoke publicly in support of Israel just days before the final. Contrast this with "Nemo" the non-binary winner of Eurovision 2024 from Switzerland, who attacked Israel at every available opportunity.  Sadly, Nemo is probably unaware (or simply hypocritical) about the fact that Israel is probably one of the only countries in the Middle East (if not the  only country) in which they could freely celebrate their sexual identity. Nemo would probably be safer in Israel than many of the other European Eurovision contestants.  

There is much more than can be written about Eurovision - many Israelis are glued to their screens annually on the night of the finals, waiting to see if Israel will finish "on the map" and  demonstrate to the world that it has important cultural and musical contributions to make - even if they are being made as part of a shlocky contest.  

Just one final comment  about it - and that is about the judging.  In the finals, each country has a jury of "professional" judges that award points to 10 other countries - except  their own.  Historically, these professional juries are a cesspool of politics, deal making and shady exchanges.  For example, Cyprus and Greece almost always award each other the highest number of points.  (This year was no exception).  Likewise for the various Scandinavian countries - and Britain and France often enjoy the same arrangements.  Historically, the "professional" juries rarely provide high numbers of points to Israel, no matter who is singing.   But the the other half of the voting  comes from audience votes - phone  in and on-line voting.  There, Israel  has done exceptionally well, even in the countries that boycotted Israel this year.  

So after all of the judging this year, Israel was in 10th place or so after  all of the "jury votes" had been announced.  As the audience vote came in, Israel moved up higher and higher.  Six different countries awarded Israel the highest number of votes from audience voting (including France, Germany and Switzerland) but only one country's "professional jury" gave Israel the maximum votes - and that was Poland. After Israel's audience total was announced - Israel moved up to first place - and held on to that spot until the very last country's votes were announced - Bulgaria - which then overtook Israel by a significant number.

Going in to the contest, Finland had been the heavy favourite.  Voices in Finland were calling for Finland to bar Israel from participating next year if it had won (the winner hosts the following year's contest).  But Finland lost - and Bulgaria  has no stated intention of banning Israel.  It will be interesting to see if the five boycotters continue to boycott next year or they will re-join or try to re-join the contest.

For now, I have taken Spain, Iceland, Slovenia, Ireland and the Netherlands off my travel list.  I hear that Iceland is quite beautiful the right time of year and I enjoy Amsterdam.  Slovenia wasn't really on my list anyways and Ireland has been a bastion of anti-Israel hatred for some time now - so I wasn't planning to visit Ireland anytime soon either.

To conclude on Eurovision - (I have written much more than I intended to write), here are two more videos for your enjoyment.

First of all- here is Noam Bettan's song Michelle in Yiddish, with the name changed to

"Rachel". Thanks to some AI apparently.

Finally - this a version of "A New Day Will Rise," Israel's entry to last year's Eurovision sung by Yuval Raphael as a duet with Noam Bettan.  In other words - Israel's back to back 2nd place finishers at Eurovision - singing together. This was recorded in March 2026.  Enjoy.  

I particularly enjoy this duet - and I hope you are able to access these videos from wherever you are in the world.

Israeli Politics

As you might know, Israel must have elections before the end of October, 2026. This means the current Knesset will be dissolved shortly  and a date will be chosen.

The ultra-religious parties have indicated they would prefer a date two days before Rosh Hashanah - or in between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur. They are betting that the highest number of their constituents will be available to vote those days.  Secular Israelis are often out of the country on those dates - since it is an extended three-week holiday break for many companies - or at least a period with a much lighter schedule.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is pushing for the latest possible date - at the end of October.  Supposedly, this would give him more time to try and improve his support (which has been fading) or to negotiate a plea bargain deal and leave office permanently, perhaps coupled with a pardon from the Israeli President.

As of now, Israeli parties are still putting together their final slates of candidates.  Prime Minister Netanyahu still seems to have a plurality of votes but not a majority. Predictions for Netanyahu seem to  range from 25 to 36 seats out of 120 Knesset seats. Right now, former Prime Minister Bennett and  former Prime Minister Lapid are running together as a joint slate and are polling in second place with 24 to 26 seats.  The key is that in almost all of the polls, Netanyahu's government seems  to be polling at between 49 and 52 seats out of 120 down from their current number of 68 seats. If these polling numbers turn out to be accurate, that would be a dramatic  loss of 16 seats for Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

On the other hand, the opposition parties, not including the Israeli Arab parties (which have usually avoided joining the government), seem to be polling the range of 56 to 59 seats.  According to these results, the opposition would need the support of either the ultra-religious parties or the Arab parties in order to form a government - unless the numbers move by a few seats.

We could well wind up with a stalemate but it is too early to make predictions.  The final slates have not even closed yet and there could be dramatic changes still to come in terms of the field of candidates.

What is certain is that Israel will not elect a "left" or "far left" government.  If Netanyahu loses, it will be something similar to Hungary - where we would see a change of leadership - and changes on some big issues, primarily domestic, I think - but not too many immediate dramatic shifts.

I do think that if the opposition were to win, we would be likely to see less corruption, a dramatic difference in the tone of public statements, and a reinvigorated respect for the judicial system in Israel.  It is too early to say what kind of policy changes we will see vis-a-vis the Palestinians, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.  But Bennett is campaigning on a variety of domestic policy changes including the availability of civil marriage in Israel, enlistment for all Israelis including the ultra-religious and respect for the judicial system.  So the public discourse would certainly be quite different with new leadership.

The War/s

Israel remains, unquestionably, in an ongoing state of war on several fronts, despite some different cease-fire agreements.

Israel is fighting most actively against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Lebanon has continued to send attack drones, missiles and rockets to Israel, with its most  potent weapon being drones that are not using gps systems.  Several Israeli soldiers were killed over the past two weeks fighting in or near Lebanon.

Captain Maoz Recanati z"l was killed on Friday.  He was a 24 year old Golani soldier due to marry his fiancee next month.  20 year old Staff Sargeant Negev Dagan Z"l, another Golani soldier, was also killed on Saturday in Southern Lebanon.  I picked these two only because they were the most recent fatalities.  In total, since October 7, 2023, more than 1,150 Israeli  soldiers have been killed and 850 civilians have also been killed.

Although Israel would love to have a peace deal with Lebanon and many Lebanese would like nothing more - Lebanon is effectively being held ransom by Hezbollah, an Iranian backed terror organization, that controls large swaths of Lebanese territory, including large sections of Beirut.  The Lebanese government needs to be able to control Hezbollah and prevent it from attacking Israel.  If it cannot do that, and Hezbollah continues to attack Israel, Israel has no choice but to continue to fight Hezbollah. Israelis are hoping that Israel will soon reach a real peace deal with Lebanon and  citizens of both countries will be able to tour each other's countries.  But for now, this still seems like a distant dream.

In Gaza, there continues to be some ongoing fighting, though access to news is somewhat limited.  Recently, the current commander of Hamas was killed in fighting.  Ultimately, Hamas continues to try to reassert its control over Gaza while Israel and some other partners seek to disarm Hamas and create the conditions for different leadership in Gaza.  It is unclear to me when or how an end to the fighting will be reached with Hamas / Gaza but I am hoping that someone will soon figure out a way to resolve this situation.

With Iran, Israelis seem to believe that a new round of fighting is imminent, possibly starting today, tomorrow or over the next few days. This was the view of a the Russian ambassador in a recent interview, apparently, and seems to be the view of many  commentators.  Although Trump has massive American military might in the region, he has been making threats for weeks and seems to have little domestic support for renewed hostilities with Iran. However, the Iranians do not seem to be interested in accepting the conditions that Trump is offering for a full permanent cease fire. Iran is acting as if it holds all of the cards - or most of them. As I write this, there was just an announcement that the U.S. has rejected Iran's latest "proposal" to end the war.

Both Trump and Iran seem to be playing chicken.  Most commentators that I have heard claim that neither Iran nor the U.S. is interested in renewed fighting.  However, the current state of affairs is nothing less than an embarrassing loss for the United States - with no significant, demonstrable gains other than a major degradation of the Iranian military forces.

Netanyahu is pushing for renewed hostilities because he understands that none of the war aims have been achieved. Iran still has its enriched uranium, its missile program and its proxies, even though some of the proxies have been degraded to an extent.  There has been no regime change and Iran continues to threaten several countries in the region - the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel and any countries relying on the use of the Hormuz Straits (other than Iranian allies). From the Israeli government's perspective, Israel and the U.S. should try to "finish the job" and achieve some or all of their war aims.

Trump is of course facing massive domestic pressure, a decrease in popularity, an increase in oil prices and a sense, I would say, that these "war aims" may not even be achievable.  Trump is concerned that renewing the fighting may not put the U.S. in a better position and he may simply wind up deeper in the quagmire.  For Netanyahu, he would prefer somewhat of a "Hail Mary" pass.  If the fighting can be renewed and completed before election time, he might be able to claim that the whole operation was victorious because of his leadership.  However, if things go awry, and that is at least reasonably likely, Netanyahu might slide even further in the Israeli polls and might need to consider taking a plea bargain deal rather than standing for re-election.

For now, there is a great deal of uncertainty here in Israel, since renewed fighting could break out at any time and throw the whole region into disarray.

Travelling to Israel

Most foreign airlines have still not resumed their normal service to Israel, though some are scheduled to do so at the end of May or the beginning of June.  El Al prices are very high and space is limited. Arkia, Air Haifa and Israir are also flying out of Ben Gurion airport, but let's just say that I am not that excited about flying on any of those airlines.

Last month I flew via London.  (El Al to London and Air Canada from London to Toronto).  The El Al planes were the very nice Dreamliner 787s with screens.    Similar to the planes that Air Canada uses.  Smooth, quiet and a bit more spacious than some other planes.  El Al even rolled out a proper boarding system this year, starting in January 1, 2026, replacing its chaotic "everyone can board now" with an orderly board by zone process.  And in London, yes, it worked.  Boarding was orderly, organized and reasonable. The food was decent, the entertainment screens had a wide variety and the flight was quite nice.  Too bad El Al is not a member of one of the major alliances as the "Matmid" program for frequent flyers is still horrible. But otherwise, this was quite a nice trip.

I should also note that the UK now uses pre-travel visas - ETAs - which you need to arrange before you fly.  But once you have done so, Border control processing is quick and  efficient. It was great.

Flying back, I flew via Zurich.  Zurich border control was less organized and took much longer.  I spent a day in Zurich (which is only a 10 minute train from the airport) but that is for another blog perhaps

From Zurich, I flew El Al.  This was the "good old-fashioned El Al."  No real boarding zones were used, the planes were older and noisier, the food was terrible and there were no personal screens.  Of course, it is the only show in town flying from Zurich to Tel-Aviv so I suppose El Al can afford to run whatever service it feels like running.  

A large contingent of Israelis held a prayer service just before take off - though it was around 6 p.m. and they were having a big fight trying to decide whether to pray Minchah (afternoon prayers) or Ma'ariv (evening prayers). In the end the Ma'ariv voices won out  - even though it was too early to count the Omer (Observant Jews count the Omer for 50 days starting on the second day of Pesach (Passover) after dark each day.)  You can't count the Omer until after the sun goes down.

In any event, surely with all of the daveners on the plane, I could take comfort in the enhanced safety of the plane, assuming that these prayers had reached the intended recipient.

Shavuot

I am going to wrap this up by noting that we are celebrating Shavuot on Thursday night May 21st and Friday May 22nd this year in Israel (it is only a one-day holiday here).

Following in the footsteps of my late grandmothers z"l and my dear mother (who hasn't made blintzes in a while), I will be making a decent sized batch of cheese blintzes to be served as part of a dairy meal, best eaten with sour cream. A shout out to Tori Avey's recipe site which has some excellent blintz recipes.  As well as all kinds of other recipes.  I have tried many of them and they are really terrific.  Her Rosh Hashanah honey cake, made with chopped granny smith apples, is excellent - but I digress.

Some Jews observe the tradition of eating dairy on Shavuot - and Israel's dairy industry loves that tradition.  We went  out to buy some cheeses today to fill the blintzes and it was a zoo in the dairy section of the supermarket.  But we went early.  I am sure it will be completely insane by Wednesday - if there is anything left on the shelves. A few years ago, we left things a bit late and had a very difficult time finding some cheese products that we needed.

There are others who maintain that you cannot properly celebrate a  Jewish holy day unless you actually eat meat on the holy day but we have always been part of the first school.  (Some extended family members of mine here in Israel are decidedly in the second group).

The tradition is to study Torah all night on Shavuot, which is after all, a holiday marking the receipt of the Torah  by the Jewish people.  What goes best with dairy and Torah studying?  Cheese cake and White or Rose wine of course - and both of those will be served at our Erev Shavuot dinner even though I am not a big cheesecake fan myself.

I have lots more  to write - perhaps I will do a bit of a travel blog about a number of sites we recently visited in Israel.  But for now,  I am going to call it a day.  This has taken quite a while to write and I am running out of gas (and we all know how expensive gas is these days).

Wishing everyone a Chag Shavuot Sameach and looking forward to seeing many of you soon in North America.

Yom Hazikaron - Israeli Remembrance Day 2026

Today is one of the most significant days of the year in Israel - Yom Hazikaron.  The Day of Remembrance of fallen soldiers and  security personnel - and victims of terrorism. In many ways, I would say it is the most important day to be in Israel. For someone who really wants to understand the country - being here on this day provides a real window to the soul of the country.

At 8 p.m. last night, the commemorations began with a one minute siren across the country - marking the start of commemorative ceremonies in every city or town.

Here in Ra'anana, we went at about 7 p.m. to be able to find seats.  By 7:30 p.m., the outdoor Yad L'Banim venue was overflowing.  Thousands of people, young and old, religious and secular, men and women, all attending to remember those who have fallen.  All of the stores and restaurants in the city closed early.  Many streets were closed off. 

These events are incredibly moving and powerful.  Not too many dry eyes.  It began at 8 p.m. with the national siren blaring.  There were some speeches - by the Mayor of Ra'anana Chaim Broide and by the chair of the Organization of Bereaved Families.  The event also included videos of stories of a few of the fallen soldiers - and footage of some different war time experiences and events.  In between the speeches and the videos, there were live musical performances.  This year's singer was exceptional. Unfortunately, I don't have his name handy (I will try to update the blog when I have it).  But he sang 4 songs over the course of the evening.  Two of them were based on poems or songs that had been written by soldiers before they were killed and then put to music later.  He sang these pieces with such emotion.  The audience was silent - you could hear a pin drop when he stopped singing.  

The ceremony is also divided with the reading out of the names of the all of the fallen soldiers, security personnel and victims of terror from Ra'anana - in two groups by the year they fell.  Names are read out from 1948 until the present day with a break in the early 1970s. 

Unfortunately, it is long list.  For each name, a picture of the individual appears on the screen.   I was curious to see how many years there have been in which no one from Ra'anana was killed.  Since 1978, I counted 12 years in total. Just 12 years out of the last 48.  

The ceremony also includes the reading of a Yizkor prayer, the "El Maleh Rahamim" sung by one of Ra'anana's Chazanim and of course the singing of Hatikvah at the end (Israel's national anthem).  They don't say Kaddish at these commemorations which seems a bit strange to me.  The ceremony runs for about an hour and a half.

For people who do not want to or cannot attend in person, Israeli TV broadcasts the national ceremony from Jerusalem - with some of Israel's most well known singers, politicians, army personnel and representatives of the bereaved families.

After the ceremony, Israeli TV broadcasts an evening of solemn Yom Hazikaron songs on a program called "Music in the Square."  The music is powerful, emotional, but also incredibly sad.  But that is the way Israelis commemorate the day - by watching or attending at musical performances at some of the saddest - but some of the best Israeli music.

Yom Hazikaron is such an important day because most people know someone who died in battle or was related to someone who was killed.  The Israeli army is still very much a "people's army."  With national  conscription, most Israelis, men and women, wind up serving.  After their compulsory service of 2-3 years, they become part of the "reserves" and are called to serve for a few (or several) weeks per year.  

This means that whenever there is a war, everyone has to take responsibility for defending the country.  It is our neighbours, our families, our friends and their children - who put on their uniforms and defend the country.

Since  2023, the army has played a central role  in the lives of so many Israelis.  With the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas and subsequently Hezbollah - and then Iran and the Houthis - reserves were called up in massive numbers - to show up and help Israel defend itself. Many  reserve soldiers have served hundreds of days since 2023 - far more than they would have had to in the past. This has disrupted their lives to an unimaginable degree.

On October 7, 2023, approximately 1200 Israelis were killed including more than 825 civilians, who were killed in their homes or while attending the Nova music festival.  The Hamas terrorists who carried out these attacks had plans to get to other cities and settlements in Israel and murder thousands more people.  Israeli reserves and security personnel across the country mobilized as quickly as they could that day and rushed to the Gaza envelope area to help fight off these attacks.  A son of one of the members of our synagogue.  One of our daughter's best friend's husband.  A few of the soldier's who had been in our son's unit.  These are just a few of the people that we know of who fell in battle.

Throughout the history of modern Israel, since 1948, things have been rocky. There have been far too many wars.  Israel is surrounded by hostile neighbours - some of whom (like Iran) have vowed to destroy the country.  But the people remain hopeful.  We have peace deals with Egypt, Jordan the United Arab Emirates. There is talk that we may be close to a peace deal with Saudi Arabia and perhaps peace with Lebanon is a possibility - and maybe even Syria.  Hopefully one day, that list will include Iran and Iraq as well - and the other remaining countries throughout the Middle East so that Yom Hazikaron will not need to be such a gaping, open wound each year.

But for now, Yom Hazikaron is not distant at all.  It is very immediate. Now as we still face threats that the war between the U.S. and Iran may restart or the war between Israel and Hezbollah (Lebanon) may restart as early as tomorrow, there is a very real concern that more Israeli soldiers and civilians could be in very serious danger.

At 11 a.m. this morning, there was a two minute siren across the country.  Right afterwards, ceremonies were held at all of the military ceremonies across the country.  There was also a televised national ceremony from Jerusalem - featuring a speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu.  This was a much shorter event than the events last night.  It was followed by televised musical performances and movies, documentaries and clips about different Israeli operations and fallen soldiers.

Overall it was one of those days on which we feel an incredible range of emotions.  First of all - sadness and devastation at the loss.  The effect on so many families - that lost sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, parents, friends, spouses and partners.  Then there is pride - the notion that the country pulls together to defend the country and the people of Israel - that people view this as their responsibility - to ensure the continued existence of the State of Israel - and the safety and well-being of their fellow Israelis - their family, friends, neighbours.  And then - certainly - there is also some fear and uncertainty.  What will come next?  Will we ever get to a state of peace here?  Is it all worth it?

Hard questions to answer.  Certainly the tie-in between Yom Hashoah v'Hagevurah (Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day) that we observed last week - and Yom Hazikaron today  - illustrates the fragility of the Jewish experience worldwide.  Looking around at the world today - and the growing instances of anti-Semitism - it seems all too obvious that the Jewish people need the State of  Israel - in a very real and existential way.  The future of the Jewish communities in so many countries seems tenuous - even countries in which Jews seemed to be thriving and safe for so many years.  

Against that backdrop, I would say that overall, the feelings of pride and responsibility ultimately outweigh the grief and sadness - and the commemoration of Yom Hazikaron becomes a powerful day of remembrance - but also a day of determination - and even thankfulness - to those who were lost in battle and for the great things that were accomplished because of so many Israelis who have actively participated in building the country.

And soon - as Yom Hazikaron comes to a conclusion - we transition to one of the happiest  days of the year - Yom Haatzmaut - Israel Independence Day. Tonight we will mark 78 years since the founding of the modern State of Israel.  The two days are situated so closely together as an ever present reminder that it is the determination and sacrifices of so many of our soldiers that enabled the State to grow, develop and thrive.

Let's hope that over time, our celebrations of Yom Haatzmaut will take place without overhanging clouds of war - and with an emphasis on the joy and happiness of independence rather than such a contemporaneous feeling of loss caused by war.

Are We Nearing the End of the US/Israel-Iran War?

As I am writing this article, I am listening to the latest Israeli news reports.  There is speculation that there may be a cease fire between Israel and Lebanon - perhaps temporary - perhaps longer term - but we are still waiting for details.  At the same time, there are reports that the U.S. and Iran are making progress towards some kind of broader cease-fire deal - which may initially include a further temporary cease fire between the U.S. and Iran to see if a deal can be concluded.  I will come back to this.  So far - lots of talk but no confirmation that there is a deal.

Even though the war is perhaps the most important  topic - I decided to go in reverse order this time and write about sports and other items first.  So if you  do not like reading my sports updates you can skip down below.

Sports

First of all, as a Canadian, I have to start with ice hockey news.  The Israeli national ice hockey team won Division IIB of the IIHF (International Ice Hockey Federation) Tournament.  Israel finished first in this round robin hockey tournament by beating a variety of ice hockey luminaries including Kyrgyszstan, Iceland, New Zealand, Bulgaria and Chinese Taipai.  The clinching game was a 5-2 win over Iceland on April 12th.  The tournament's leading scorer was Hanadz Malashchanka with 12 points over 5 games.  Israel will now move up one level to the Division II Group A.  In case you are wondering - that would still put them two groups behind the "real" international hockey powerhouse teams.  But for Israel, this is a big and exciting win.

In other sports news, Israelis are filled with pride over the performance of Deni Avdija, who scored 41 points last night in an NBA game to help the Portland Trail Blazers make it into the playoffs.  Israeli news reports that this will be the first time an Israeli player has played in the NBA playoffs.  I have not verified that - and I am not really an avid basketball fan - but Israelis are super excited about this.

Personally, I am getting for a view sleepless nights as I try to watch a few Montreal Canadiens' playoff games and maybe some Edmonton  Oilers games as well.  I will be back in Toronto late next week, so if either or both teams make it through, I will get to watch some games from North America at saner hours.

Random Thoughts

I needed to renew my Israeli passport.  I am used to the Canadian system of filling in a detailed form, going and getting passport pictures somewhere and other steps. In fairness, Canada has simplified things a bit over the years - if you are simply renewing a passport - and you already have one that has not expired yet - or has expired only recently.  Here in Israel, I booked an appointment on-line simply by providing my national ID# - and confirming which type of passport I wanted. I then paid on-line, and booked an appointment. I showed up at the office in Tel-Aviv ( I was a bit late because of the horrible Tel-Aviv traffic but nobody seemed to mind).  I was shuffled over to a machine - that took my photo, took my finger prints, checked my ID card and current passport - and - ta-da - I was done.  No need to talk to anyone, take photos in advance or take any other steps.  Quick and easy.  Now I just need to wait to  collect it. It is supposed to arrive by courier within 4 to 6 weeks.

Travelling back and forth between two countries, I sometimes lose perspective about how different things can be culturally on different sides of the world. I felt it quite a bit today when I walked into a crowded coffee/baked goods shop.  People were calling in their orders from all over the shop - "hey Kobi - make me a double latte - no foam" - and the different staff working behind the counter were simply taking the orders and trying to keep up.  "No problem sweetie, did you want that for here or to go."  This was quite a far cry from a Starbucks, Second Cup or even a Canadian  branch of Aroma (an Israeli chain) where there is an orderly line and an evident ordering system in place. Now in fairness, if you walk into one of the bigger chains in Israel, like Arcaffe (one of our favourites of the Israeli chains), the experience is much more like being in North America.  But in a smaller local shop - well this seemed like much more of the Israeli experience and it is very different from the North American experience for sure.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah

Yesterday was the Day of Commemoration of the Holocaust and Heroism in Israel and around the world.  In some years, I have dedicated my whole blog simply to that day.  I was not able to write a blog yesterday or the day before - so I decided to include some comments here.  That is not intended to diminish the importance of the day.

On Monday night, we decided to watch the national televised ceremony rather than attending the in-person commemoration in Ra'anana.  Given that we still do not have a cease fire in place with Lebanon, there are still some restrictions in place for public gatherings.  Prime Minister Netanyahu went to significant lengths to politicize the day by drawing comparisons between the Iranians and the Nazis.  Aside from  his speech, there were some powerful musical performances and wreath-laying ceremonies.

In Israel, on Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, the whole country comes to somewhat of a standstill. All restaurants and shops close early in the evening  (this year on Monday) and the TV stations show Holocaust related programming exclusively for a 24 hour period - other than news. At 10 a.m., there is a two minute siren throughout the country.  Israelis stop what they are doing - and stand at attention.  Even those who are on the highway stop their cars and get out to stand at attention.  It is very powerful.

Commemoration of the Holocaust and its six million Jewish victims is of paramount importance in the Jewish State of Israel - as is the recollection of the bravery of those who fought the Nazis and the remembrance of those, including non-Jews, who went out of their way to help save Jewish people.  For Israel, so much of the messaging is tied to the central idea that only having a strong Israel could have prevented this horrible event - and is the only way to protect the Jewish people today - especially in the face of raging anti-Semitism in so many countries.

We watched a variety of documentaries - including "One Flight For Us."  This documentary looks back at the failure of the U.S. army to bomb the railways or death camps, despite flying over different  camps repeatedly.  It includes interviews with U.S. politicians, historians and  others looking back at historical records to assess what the U.S. and its allies knew about what was going on in Nazi Germany, when they knew and what they might have been able to do.  The movie also ties that in with an arranged fly-over carried out by Israeli fighter pilots, who flew over Auschwitz symbolically to represent a very different reality.  This type of movie demonstrates the Israeli viewpoint that  although the message of the Holocaust does have universalist warnings and messages, it is ultimately the targeting of and impact on the  Jewish people that is most significant for us, as Jews.  I note, parenthetically, that this difference between a universalist message and a particularist one is evident if one contrast visits to Yad Vashem (the Israeli Holocaust Museum) versus the National Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C., for example.

For  the  Canadian side of things, I participated in a Law Society of Ontario Zoom program dealing with the latest developments in the area of hate speech in Canada - including a recent criminal conviction for a Holocaust denier.

I have written more about this subject in other  blogs - and they are searchable using my index if you would like to read more of my thoughts on this.  As is the case with so many Jewish people, it is a subject very close to my heart - as we have many ancestors and extended family members who were victims of the Holocaust as well as some who were survivors or the descendants of survivors.

Justice, Justice You Shall  Pursue

In case you did not recognize it, that is the approximate translation of "Tzedek Tzedek Tirdof" which appears in the Torah in the book of Dvarim (Deuteronomy).  So I adopted that line as my intro for a few comments on legal proceedings in Israel.

The Israeli Supreme Court, yesterday,  in a nine-person panel, heard a petition to remove Minister Itamar Ben Gvir from his role as cabinet minister.  The argument, in part, was that he had breached various duties, obligations and laws, and was eroding the independence of the police force by appointing more than 1,200 loyalists (Ben-Gvir's numbers) to key positions without the proper jurisdiction to do so.  I am not going to get into a detailed  discussion of this now - but it raises all kinds of issues  as to the boundaries of judicial jurisdiction weighed against political prerogative and authority.  Various members of the Likud Party and Ben-Gvir's party appeared at the  hearing and tried to disrupt it until they were thrown out of the hearing by the court.  As well, there were dozens of demonstrators outside of the courthouse arguing that the vary fact that the Court was hearing this type of petition was inappropriate and an  overreach by the court. 

At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu was granted a further two week adjournment of his criminal hearing due to "security issues."  Netanyahu is becoming quite concerned that if the war ends and he has not been pardoned, his trial will move along at a much faster clip and might even be headed towards a verdict.  I have discussed this in the past and I won't belabour it other than to say that it is my view that it is highly unlikely that he will be able to emerge from this unscathed if it goes to a verdict.  In my view, he will either get his pardon, reach a plea bargain deal or find some other way out of it before a verdict is ever handed down.  This is simply because he and his team know that there is overwhelming evidence on some of the counts (otherwise the case would not have proceeded in the first place) and their main strategy is to delay the process and ensure that it never gets to a verdict.

War Update

Israel is still involved in ongoing wars on several fronts, the most active being the battles with Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.

As you know, the U.S. and Iran are still in the midst of a two-week cease fire period and are actively negotiating to try to find a way to end the conflict.  Some of the latest reports suggest that Iran has agreed to turn over its enriched uranium, if not to the U.S. then to an agreed upon country, and the U.S. has agreed to release millions of dollars in frozen funds.  At the same time, the U.S. has also increased its military contingent in the region, either as an increased threat to Iran or as part of a plan to restart the war.  I am simply not in a position to assess what will happen next week.  Certainly from the direction that things appear to be taking, it is looking likely that there will either be a further extension of the cease fire or an outright deal. The deal will certainly include Israel as well.

The situation with Lebanon is somewhat different.  Lebanon and Israel have no reason to be involved in hostilities. Israelis believe that the majority of Lebanese would like to have a full peace deal with Lebanon.  However, approximately 30% of Lebanon is Shi'a Muslim - and some of that population supports Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran - a terrorist militia operating throughout Lebanon to do the bidding of Iran, attack Israel (and/or Syria if called upon) and give Iran power and influence in the country. Hezbollah does not control the government but has often been part of it.  However, it is a powerful extra-governmental militia, funded, armed and supported by Iran - that has attacked Israel, both in October 2023 (when Hamas attacked Israel) and now in the current war after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran.  In fact, Hezbollah is still firing rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones and other weaponry at Israel, aiming mostly at civilian populations.  

Iran tried to insist that any ceasefire included a cease fire in Lebanon.  However, Israel is not interested in leaving large numbers of armed terrorists on its border without a commitment from Lebanon to reign in these terrorists and prevent attacks.

Despite all of this, Israeli officials met with Lebanese officials for one of the first times ever, face to face, to discuss these issues and try to work towards a resolution.  For Israel, that would mean disarming Hezbollah and getting an assurance from the  Lebanese government that no attacks on Israel will take place from Lebanese soil.  The concern is that the Lebanese government is probably too weak to implement that type of deal.  So this one continues to be tricky and it remains to be seen what type of arrangement can be negotiated.

In the meantime, we have had one family member stationed up in Southern Lebanon/ Northern Israel, who thankfully returned today for at least the next week or so. So many Israelis from across the country are currently serving in reserve duty -  in Gaza, near the Lebanese border and  in all kinds of other positions.

Next Week

Now, after observing Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, we are headed towards Israel's Memorial Day for Soldiers and Victims of Terror (one of the saddest days of the year) (on Monday night and  Tuesday) and then Israel's Independence Day (Yom Haatzmaut) (one of the happiest days of the year) on Tuesday night and  Wednesday.  All of these events are taking place while a cloud of certainty still hangs over the country, waiting to see what will happen with the unresolved wars.

But no matter what the situation is, most Israelis will find a way to light up the barbecue and get together with friends or family on Tuesday or Wednesday and celebrate the modern state of Israel's 78th anniversary - even if that means being in and out of shelters and protected rooms in between the chicken wings, kebabs and skewers.

Pesach Update #2 - 2026

We were into our final preparations for our Passover Seder on Wednesday night.  The gefilte fish had been made, the Charoset was ready to go, the horseradish was hand grated, the chicken soup and matzah balls were hot and the roast beef with garlic confit (Kosher for Passover, kitnyot-free of course)(courtesy of our in-house chef) was out of the oven.  There were other dishes as well - these are just a few of the highlights.  As we were getting ready to leave around 4:30 p.m., we faced an onslaught of five warnings and sirens in a row - as a result of simultaneous missile launches from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. We headed for our saferoom and waited it out.

We started wondering if we were going to be able to make it to Kiryat Eqron for our family dinner or if the Iranians and their "Axis of Resistance/ Axis of Evil" allies - would be firing missiles all night long.  We packed some blankets with us in case we were going to need to stop the car on the way and find a safe spot near the side of the road.

We of course received phone calls and messages from friends and family members wondering if we should stay home and just have the Seder at our place.  But by 5 p.m. or so, everything had stopped and we decided to take our chances.  So off we went (crazy? perhaps. But that's  life in Israel).  We made it to Kiryat Eqron (about a 40 minute drive) uneventfully.  We started our Seder at about 7:40 p.m. and finished about 12:30 a.m. and had no sirens or warnings throughout the whole Seder.  

As you might know, there is only one Seder in Israel - and we were able to enjoy it thoroughly with some really nice wine, telling the story of the Exodus from Egypt as set out in the Haggadah, singing lots of songs, enjoying lots of food and most importantly spending the evening with our extended family - with the chance to pass on and teach our children these lessons and traditions. 

Once we had cleaned up, packed up all the food and finished whatever else needed to be done, we wound up with our first and only siren of the night at about 2 a.m.  Fortunately nothing landed anywhere near us.  We also had one bright and early at 7 a.m. (which is really bright and early after a Pesach seder - especially if you have fulfilled your obligation to drink four whole cups of wine....).

The rest of our Chag day was relatively quiet.  In the afternoon - we decided to go back to Eqron for a family barbecue.  I won't get into all of the details here - but barbecues on Chag days are common in observant Mizrahi communities in Israel. They take a more lenient approach to the idea of getting a charcoal fire going - as long as it was started from another existing flame.  

Again, we were able to get through all of the preparations, have all the food made, eat most of it and even get to our hot beverages - until we wound up with three missile alerts in a row.  So we joined some of the neighbourhood folks in the community bomb shelter and waited for about 20 minutes until the missile barrage was over.  One person was "lightly injured" in the nearby town of Mazkeret Batya (about 2 km away from Eqron) from pieces of shrapnel.  We went back to the house to finish our coffee and tea and it began to rain.  Much more welcome than missiles but still rain tends to send an outside party indoors.

It felt like a Chag day today - Friday - a holy day - since so many people in Israel are doing a "bridge" and turning the holiday into part of a three-day weekend.  Good Friday is not observed  here as a national holiday - only by the Christian communities living in Israel - so mostly, it was a regular Friday - but I think most people were still home lazing around after enjoying the first evening and full day of Pesach.

What's Next in the War?

I understand that President Trump gave a speech on Wednesday night at about 9 p.m. - after the Seders in Israel but in the middle of the Seders in North America. On the one hand, he pledged to finish the war within 2-3 weeks - or at least take the American forces out of the area in that timeframe.  On the other hand, he threatened to bomb Iran "back into the stone ages where they belong..." as he put it.  

Now I'm not sure that this kind of threat will engender the Iranians to rise up and form a U.S. friendly government - not really the kind of language that suggests that we are waiting to work with the Iranian people to build a better future.

In any event, it is hard to conclude that the U.S. has achieved any of its stated objectives at this point in the war.  The Iranian regime is still in place (perhaps even stronger, despite the loss of many key personnel).  The Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, as far as we know.  Apparently, the Iranians still have their enriched  uranium.  The Iranian missile supply has certainly been degraded but not eliminated.  And the regional proxies of Iran have not been eviscerated - though Hezbollah has certainly taken some  heavy blows.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime has strengthened its control over the Hormuz Strait, increased and improved its ties with China, Russia and apparently North Korea, and has so far refused to agree to anything close to U.S. terms.

If things do not change dramatically by April 6th at 8 p.m., President Trump has threatened a series of massive attacks, designed to secure some of the stated U.S. objectives.  Or he could announce another extension.  When I first heard of the 10 day "extension" that he gave the Iranians. my thought was that this was a pretext to concluding the operation - and claiming that a deal had been reached with the Iranians.

At this point, it does not appear that the Iranians have any demonstrable interest in negotiating a deal with the U.S. that would be acceptable to both sides.  As a result, I am leaning to the view that we will see some type of major attacks on Monday April 6th - if not before.  It may be an operation to secure the Straits of Hormuz.  Or it might be an operation to try and seize the enriched uranium that is in some underground Iranian storage facilities. Or perhaps the U.S. might try to seize Karg Island and its oil transportation and storage facilities.  I guess we will have to see.  It seems unlikely that the Iranians will capitulate between now and then. While it is still possible that Trump will declare victory and leave - I think a ramped-up attack is looking much more likely now.

Other Israel News

The Israeli Knesset, before its Pesach break, passed a budget for the year that is intended to enable the government to function until and beyond the elections (end of October 2026). The big news here was that the governing coalition passed  a budget even without passing the the "Draft Evasion Law" that had been promised to the Charedim (the ultra-religious Jews).  How did Netanyahu get around this?  He basically threw more money at the Charedim.  The government added in a few proposed "amendments" to the budget bill.

Normally such amendments only come from the opposition and are routinely voted down.  The opposition votes in favour, the government votes against and all such amendments are defeated.  Here there were more than 100 such amendments.

The governing coalition dropped a few amendments into the list  - including a proposed amendment called an "Education Amendment" - which gave hundreds of millions of shekels to the Charedim.  The opposition dropped the ball and believed that this was one of the amendments they had proposed as a form of filibuster.  As a result - they voted for the amendment - granting the Charedim hundreds of millions of shekels in exchange for supporting this year's budget.

Later the Knesset also passed a  death penalty bill - though the bill only includes the death penalty for Arab perpetrators of terrorism against Israeli targets.  Irrespective of one's view about capital punishment in general, this is a terrible bill - since it does not contain one equal universal standard for defining crimes that would warrant capital punishment.

Sadly, there have been acts of terror committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (called the "West Bank" by some) against Palestinian Arabs.  In my view, perpetrators of these acts should be arrested, prosecuted and subject to the full weight of the law.  Unfortunately, there have not been a sufficient number of arrests and the IDF has had to divert some of its resources to preventing these attacks.  Coupled with this one-sided capital punishment bill, this does not make for a great picture. We have enough problems to deal with - facing a world full of anti-Israel voices, even when we are morally correct.  We hardly need to fan these flames by enacting lopsided pieces of legislation or by failing to protect Palestinian Arabs  in areas that are under our control.

Passover Holiday Trips

Israelis usually love to travel during Passover - since some people have as much as two to three weeks of holidays.  Options are very limited now.  People can go down to Eilat - but the prices there are crazy.  One radio show was reviewing various costs - three day packages for 4 people - ranging from 16,000 shekels to 25,000 shekels.  Sure these packages might include food.  But that is still about $5,500 USD to $8,200 USD for a three day vacation in a moderate level hotel.  In normal times - people can fly to Rome/Athens/ other European destinations for a few hundred dollars per person - and would be nowhere near these costs.

Other people are travelling into the Sinai desert to enjoy the sun and beaches in Egypt.  Might not be the safest plan around for a variety of reasons - but it is generally "missile-free."  

Still others are taking flights from Aqaba or Taba airport - or even Sharm-El -Sheq airport, which is a few hours away from the Egyptian-Israeli border at Taba.  

I would say that overall, many Israelis have expressed the feeling that they feel "trapped" in Israel to some extent.  The airport is running very few flights, with low numbers of passengers per flight.  That being said, there are various flights available to Israel - on El Al  and other airlines.  To twist the famous lines from the Eagles' sign - "you can check in any time you like but you can never leave.... " We also have the "dark desert highways" -  and the "warm smell of colitas..." and with all of these missile warnings - lots  of "shimmering lights."  

It looks like we are staying put for now - and it seems to me that is likely to be the case for most Israelis for a number of weeks, if not longer.

Sports Comments

Since I am on a Hotel California lyrical binge (definitely one of my all time favourite songs), might as well reference another well  known line - "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969...".  In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it has been since 1967 - the year the Leafs last won the cup.  And here we are 57 years later and the Leafs were officially eliminated from contention yesterday.  I hope I will have the zechut to see a Leaf Stanley Cup in my lifetime but I am not optimistic these days.  

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens have won  10 Stanley Cups since 1967, with the last win being in 1993 (a most auspicious year for our family).   As someone born in Montreal, I have and ample supply of Habs' fandom in my blood.  I am always cheering for whichever Canadian teams are in the NHL playoffs. For the last 10 years that has included the Leafs - even though they haven't really gotten anywhere.  This year, the Canadiens are super-hot approaching the end of the season.  They will join the Edmonton Oilers as the only two Canadian terms that are in for sure - with chances still for Ottawa and Winnipeg to squeak in.  So I am hoping for a dark horse Montreal victory - but I would also be happy to see the Edmonton Oilers win the cup.  Either way, I'll definitely have less hockey to watch this year than some other years - with the Leafs not even making the playoffs. The NHL playoffs start this year on Saturday  April 18, 2026.  For those watching  from Israel, this means about 2 a.m. on Sunday April 19th.

The World Cup of Soccer, from June 11, 2026 to July 19, 2026 will attract much more viewership in Israel than the NHL playoffs (by multiples of thousands or tens of thousands) even though Israel is not participating.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to make it in since Israel is forced to compete in the European division instead of playing its neighbours.

One day, hopefully  sooner rather than later, Israel will have to play soccer luminaries like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in order to earn its berth - instead of having to beat countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.  Jordan and Iran are both in this year's tournament.  While Israel might not fare so well against Iran  in a soccer match, I am fairly confident that the Israeli side would be able to beat Jordan quite easily.  

Finally, I have to mention that I am super excited about baseball season and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Normally, I don't pay much attention to baseball until the hockey playoffs have ended. But with the Blue Jays' heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last year, and the various upgrades made by the team in the off-season, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic year for the Jays.  They are only 4-2 so far - but I think this is one of the most exciting baseball teams that Toronto has had in many years.  I am looking forward to getting to some games when I am in Toronto.  Tough to watch from Israel - especially weekday games that are on at 2 a.m. Israel time - but I'm often on Toronto hours anyways.

That's about it for now.  I want to wish everyone a "Mo'adim  L'Simchah" (or Chag Sameach if it is Chag for you - or if it was when I sent this) and a Shabbat Shalom.  I hope everyone enjoys the rest of this Pesach holiday and that there is some good news - "b'sorot tovot" soon.  For friends and readers celebrating Easter - I wish you a meaningful Good Friday and a wonderful Easter weekend.

Pre-Pesach and War Update 2026

I arrived back in Israel last night on a full El Al flight from London.  Okay - it wasn't totally full - the seat next to me was vacant - which was nice.  But otherwise, it was fairly full.  These days, the only airlines flying into Israel are El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa.  The flights coming in are full -  even though only a limited number are arriving.

It is much harder to leave.  Flights are leaving Israel with only 40 or 50 passengers and many of  these flights have been cancelled.  I know quite a number of people who have left Israel though Taba (at the Egyptian-Israeli border) and taken a cab or other transportation to the Sharm-El-Sheikh airport and flown from there.  Some  have been flying from  the Taba airport.  They fly to Cyprus, Athens, Istanbul or other European destinations - and then onwards to wherever they are going.

Some have been crossing into Jordan and flying on Arkia from Aqaba airport in Jordan.  However, apparently, today, the  Jordanian government announced a change in its policies and refused to allow Arkia flights to take off with a large number of Israelis stranded at the Aqaba airport.  This is a developing story - and I am not sure how this will get sorted out.  Apparently, some of these flights are now being rerouted to Taba airport but some have been cancelled altogether.  Sounds like quite a bit of chaos for people trying to leave Israel through these alternate routes. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government has been increasing the border fees that are being charged to people who want to cross from Israel into Egypt to leave from the  Taba airport - payable only in U.S. cash. So if you are crossing into Egypt from Israel, you should probably have at least $500 USD per person with you - arrive early - and be prepared for delays and cancellations.  As for Aqaba - that seems like an even less reliable option - unless you fly on a Jordanian airline - or  one that has clearly been approved by the  Jordanian government.

For my return flight, since it was so close to Pesach (which starts on Wednesday night) there were many people on the plane coming to Israel (or coming home) for the holiday.  Several men held a Mincha service before the plane left - so of course we knew our flight would be a safe one. The last twenty minutes of the flight were quite nerve wracking as everyone wondered if there would be a missile alert as we were coming in for landing (despite the prophylactic prayer service that had taken place earlier together with multiple people reading tefillat haderech - the prayer for the traveller).  But all was quiet and the plane landed uneventfully - at which point clapping, cheering and signing all broke out.  It was quite emotional. So perhaps the cynicism is unwarranted.  I'll let each person drawn their own conclusions.

The Ben Gurion airport was quite empty. This was the only flight arriving.  No flights were leaving at this time.  It still took a while to collect my suitcase (they made me check my carry on bag for "security reasons.") The roads were  also fairly empty and  it took only about 20 minutes to get back to Ra'anana once I had collected my bag.

At  1:30 a.m. we had our first missile alert - and had to go into the safe room (the "Mamad") until we received the "all clear."  Our next missile alert was at about 2 p.m. or so.  This contrasts quite a bit with yesterday where central Israel had 11 sirens through the first 2/3 of the day. From Friday's missile barrage, six people were reported as having been wounded, though none are in serious condition. Since I have been back (Thursday March 26th in the evening) there have been 5 missile alert sirens in Ra'anana - which means going into our protected safe room and waiting until the threat has passed - usually about 10 minutes in total).  We have not had one yet today - I think that last one was at some point on Saturday morning.

That's not to say that there have not been missile attacks today - there were apparently several in southern Israel including Beersheva and other places - including a reported direct hit on a factory.  But so far, missiles have not been aimed today at Tel-Aviv and its surrounding cities.

State of the War

As you might know, President Trump delivered an ultimatum last week.  If the Iranians did not agree to his demands by 5:30 p.m. on Friday (right after the markets closed), he was going to escalate the war and  attack Iranian  energy sites and/or seize the Hormuz Strait. The Iranians responded by threatening to attack sites across the Gulf and to take other escalated actions.  So we were left to speculate as to what would happen.  In one of his posts this week, Hillel Fuld, a well known blogger, went though the different scenarios and I do agree that he outlined them correctly:

1. One scenario is that if Iran does not acquiesce (and it seems highly unlikely that they would), the U.S. would escalate the war significantly.  This could include trying to find the Iranian enriched uranium, seizing Iranian oil-producing facilities or taking steps to open the Strait of Hormuz.  Iranians have threatened their own forms of escalation in response.  The U.S. has moved a significant number of marines and other service personnel to the region and it still seems like there is a decent chance that the U.S. will proceed with a massive escalation at some point.  Supporters of escalation include Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump's Evangelical supporters, MBS of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and most of the Israeli public (70-75% according to some poll numbers).  These different proponents believe that the job is not finished, that none of the war aims have been achieved yet and that the mission can actually be accomplished.

2. Another scenario is that Trump could simply look for the best off-ramp and take it.  It seems that he is being pushed in this direction by many non-Evangelical MAGA supporters.  He is also facing pressure from world leaders in many different countries, poll numbers in the U.S. showing vast disapproval of this war, other domestic opposition and pressures of the markets and the rising price of oil.  Trump of course, likes to portray his image as being dependent only on himself - so it is unclear that all of these pressures would really sway him. Especially if the Iranians are not prepared to  present a proposal that Trump can sell as a victory.

3. A third scenario would be for the U.S. to end its involvement and let Israel continue on its own versus Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is  not very likely in my view.  If Trump declares an end to the war - Israeli will almost surely follow, irrespective of whether Bibi has yet to receive his pardon or whether Israel agrees that the war should end.  The war may continue for a period  of time between Israel and Hezbollah until a deal can be reached - even after there is a deal with Iran.

Earlier in the week, I was wavering on which was more likely.  It looked to me like Trump was pulling the  plug on the whole war and looking for an off-ramp. However, he couldn't give the name of  anyone  he was actually speaking to, the Iranians were denying that they had agreed to anything - or were going to -   and more troops were being moved to the region. This was looking more like a potential U.S. surrender (like the way that the U.S. left Viet Nam).

By Wednesday, I was convinced that we would know by Friday night.  Either there would be a big announcement of a breakthrough deal - or a huge U.S. attack would begin Friday night. My thought was that a major escalation was starting to look a bit more likely.

However, on Friday, Trump announced that he was giving the Iranians 10 more days until April 6th to agree to his plan or reach a deal. Although a major U.S. escalation is still possible, this is looking much more like a U.S. capitulation.  The Iranians  do not appear to be giving in on any major points - and Trump appears to be increasingly interested in concluding this war.

However, as of mid-day today, Trump has continued to announce further troop deployments - either to ramp up the threat as a bluff - or because he has decided that he is going to escalate.  We will know the answer soon.

I think the situation is not looking great either way.

At the war's outset, the U.S. set out four war aims.  The aims included ending the Iranian nuclear program, changing the leadership in Iran, destroying the system of Iranian proxies getting support for terrorism from Iran (Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and destroying the Iranian long-range missile program. Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have made progress on items 1 and 4, it does not appear that any of these goals have really been accomplished.

The U.S. has now, as of Sunday March 29, 2026, announced that even more U.S. troops, planes and ships will be deployed to the region.  Unless Trump is able to negotiate something that looks like he has achieved at least one of his aims, we may see a major escalation starting by April 6th.

From the Israeli side of things, Israel has been advancing further into Lebanon in a bid to push Hezbollah back and stop or reduce attacks on Israel - especially the towns and cities in Israel's north.  Hezbollah may face a reduced access to funds as Iran is weakened but it is still a formidable challenge for Israel.  The solution is a peace deal with Lebanon in which there is an agreement that Hezbollah will not return to Israel's borders.  This need to be enforced, perhaps by some sort of international force that will actually do the job (unlike the UN which simply turned a blind eye to Hezbollah violations of past agreements).

Meanwhile, many Israeli reservists (which is the vast majority of people aged 21-45 in the country) have been called into reserve duty including, now, two of our family members, at least one of whom may have to miss our family Passover Seder. 

Pesach

Pesach begins with the Seder on Wednesday April 1, 2026.  Israel just changed its clocks and sprung ahead on Thursday night March 26/27 - so sundown in the centre of the country is  now 6:42 p.m., which means that the Seder can begin at about 7:30 p.m. after people come back from synagogue.  That  is about an hour earlier than Toronto, which is quite nice. There is only one Seder in Israel and only a total of 7 days of Pesach instead of  8 outside of  Israel.

Stores are well stocked with Passover products but do not go as crazy with the shelf lining paper etc., as they do in North America.  However, during Passover, Israeli stores do not even sell products that are not kosher for Passover - they block whole sections off and temporarily remove the bar codes from the cash register systems - so that you cannot even pay for the Hametz  products.  This is all dictated by Israeli law.

Israel Elections

As of now, Israeli elections are still scheduled to occur by the end of  October 31, 2026.  Hopefully this war will be over well before then.  I will hold off on making any  election predictions until closer to the election date.  

I would simply say that if there is no clear indication that  this war has been a success for Israel (and right now, that seems to be the case), the situation is likely to be similar to what it is now or perhaps a bit worse for Prime Minister Netanyahu.  On the other hand, if the United States and Israel wind up accomplishing one or two of the war goals that they had set out - that could  provide Netanyahu with a significant jump.

Mood

It has been a very difficult period for Israelis - going all the way back to 2020.  Since Covid and then the October 7th war - things have been in a state of uncertainty and extreme economic challenge for most of the 6 year period.

In speaking to various people, many are really finding the challenges difficult - economically, psychologically, physically.  So many Israelis have spent a huge amount of time serving in reserve duty. People are in and out of shelters.  Some people have safe areas in their homes or apartments - which is convenient and reasonably safe.  Other people have to run down to shared community shelters -  where people bring their pets, their friends, etc., Some of these shelters can hold more than a hundred people  -any time of day - even in the middle of the night.

All of that being said, I think Israelis are still generally optimistic and hopeful - that this will all work out well - and that the end result will have made things worthwhile.  I hope that this optimism is well founded.

Lighter Note

Someone sent me a meme the other day - that said "Israel is one of the few countries in which you have no idea when exactly your bus or train might come - but you know, to the minute, what time the missile attack will be arriving."  

Sports

Even in these crazy times, I have managed to catch a bit of the first two Toronto Blue Jay games -  both walk-off wins.  I think we are in for a super-exciting season for the Blue Jays.  That's not something that you can watch too easily when in Israel -  unless you have a VPN and a Sportsnet login.   

Usually this time of year, I am getting ready to watch some hockey playoffs - and see the Leafs go one or two rounds (usually just one).  This year, they collapsed even before the playoffs - so I am left with two Canadian teams to cheer for - the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers.  Small chance that either the Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets might also make it in but for  now, it is looking like only two Canadian teams.  Less hockey to watch, more time for work and keeping up with the news.

Oscars

This was one of the first years where I think I managed to watch all 10 Oscar nominees.  I actually enjoyed most of them.  A full article about all of the movies is for another time.

However, one theme that ran through at least three of the movies -  Train Dreams, Sentimental Value and Hamnet - was the theme of a family member working far away from his family for periods of time - and some of the challenges that creates.  One a writer, one a movie director and one a railway worker/ lumberjack.  Different types of work for sure, but a common theme of being away from family while young children grow up.  For someone who has been doing this for 17 years now, this is a theme that resonated quite a bit with me.  I would recommend all three movies - not  necessarily because of that theme. They were all really good movies otherwise.  

With that, I am going to wish everyone a happy, healthy and  Kosher Pesach. With the hope that we will soon see an end to these wars - and that we will have accomplished some of war goals aimed at creating conditions for a long lasting period of peace in Israel and throughout the Middle East.

War With Iran - Latest Blog March 1 2026

What would this blog be without an update article about the latest events in the Middle East?  Well, this is not a news blog - since I do not have the time to write a full-time blog about Israel and Middle East events. That might be a nice alternate way of making a living but for now this is just an unpaid hobby and perhaps a way of keeping in touch with many of my friends, family and others and updating with some of my perspectives from Israel. This is also not a "hasbara" blog, so I try not to fill it with propaganda or made up information (from either side). That does not mean that I do not write from a certain perspective - any writer does - but I am open to discussion of just about any of it usually. I wanted to provide a short update of some of things going on now, some of my thoughts about this situation and perhaps some comments on other related issues.

1. Update

As you probably know, Israel and the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iran early Saturday morning, Feb 28, Israel time (about 8 a.m. local time). The first part of the attack included an attack on the Iranian military and political leadership - who were apparently holding two separate, in-person meetings.  According to Israeli reports, some 40 senior leadership figures were killed in the first minutes of the attack including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomenei,  the Iranian Foreign Minister, the General of the IRGC, and many others.  The targets also included Iranian air defence installations.  Contrary to some fake Iranian reports, neither the Israelis nor the Americans targeted a girls' school - it was apparently hit by an errant Iranian missile.

The Iranians have responded by firing ballistic missiles, conventional rockets and missiles and drones at Israel and at a wide range of surrounding countries including Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Qatar and others. 

At least two ballistic missiles sent from Iran scored direct hits on residential buildings in Israel.  In Beit Shemesh, an Iranian missile hit a residential building and a synagogue - and landed directly in the building's bomb shelter.  At least 9 people were killed and more than 25 were injured.  There were no military targets nearby - this was strictly an attack on a residential building.  In Tel-Aviv, a residential building was also hit - with at least 3 Israelis reportedly killed and more than 20 injured. Many missiles, drones and other rockets have been intercepted by Israel and its allies - including the U.S., Jordan, and others.  But the systems are not foolproof.  If any of these ballistic missiles get through, they can cause enormous damage as they are carrying 400 kg of explosives.

Iran has also hit residential and commercial targets in Dubai, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as well as other places.

Israelis have been in and out of bomb shelters and safe rooms since the war started.  Not all Israelis have access to these facilities - some estimates are that only about 65% to 70% of Israelis have a safe place to go that is reasonably close by.

Meanwhile, the United States has also suffered some casualties to its servicer personnel.  At least 3 navy personnel were killed today by an Iranian missile and dozens more were apparently injured.  Details are still emerging.

I have listened to a wide range of  analysts assessing the likely scope of the current war - though of course things are unpredictable.  The U.S.-Israeli plan initially targeted the Iranian military and  political leadership and the various defence installations including ground to air military targets.  The goal is to establish Air Supremacy.  After that, Israel and the U.S. have the stated goals of targeting missile supplies and capabilities and the IRGC including the units that have been used to suppress Iranian civilian protests.  The other main target is to attack and destroy all of the Iranian nuclear installations.  Some reports have estimated that this plan is designed to take 5 to 7 days - some of predicated as much as a month.

Although the initial attacks appear to have been highly successful from a military standpoint, it is unclear what will come next.  The U.S. and Israel have stated that their goal is regime change - to be carried out by Iranians themselves and they are trying to set the conditions for that to happen.  Is it possible? Likely? I have not idea.  Clearly, if there were to be regime change - and a regime were to emerge that had the support of a large percentage of the Iranian population and was interested in peaceful relations with the U.S. and perhaps Israel, this would be a huge game changer in the Middle East and for the world. 

Here are a few other comments about  this war from some different perspectives.

A. Israel

For Israel, contrary to what various opponents of Israel might try to argue, this is not a whimsical war of aggression by Netanyahu or some unjustified attempt at a form of expansionism.

Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been the leading anti-Israel power in the Middle East.  It has openly called for destruction for Israel - and has dedicated itself to that goal. It has worked at building a nuclear program and openly stated that it intends to use the weapons to destroy Israel.  It has hosted annual Holocaust denial conferences, sponsored terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis around the world and sponsored terrorist groups across the middle east.

More recently, Iran trained Hamas fighters and helped plan the massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 and the incursions by Hamas into Israel.  Iran also activated Hezbollah (also Iranian trained and armed) to attack Israel from Lebanon shortly after October 7th and it armed the Houthis to attack Israel with ballistic missiles from Yemen.  Ultimately, Iran and Israeli engaged in direct fighting  for a period of 12 days in 2025.  Although there was a ceasefire, the Iranians began rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs. Some reports have indicated that they were very close to having an operational nuclear bomb.

For Israel, much of this is therefore existential - or, at least, likely to become existential.  Israel could not afford to wait  until it was attacked by a nuclear Iran and the clock has been ticking.

Although the timing works cynically well for Israel's besieged Prime Minister - especially with elections in Israel due to take place by October, it is more likely that this was a rare opportunity for him to fulfill his decades long goal of dismantling the Iranian threat because he happened to have a willing U.S. Presidential partner.

It is a significant risk for the people of Israel.   There could be a large number of Israeli casualties.  If there is no regime change in Iran, the situation could become even worse. And Israel could find itself even more  isolated on the world stage - with only President Trump in its corner.  On the other hand, if the war is successful and there is regime change in Iran, this could be a major watershed moment for the whole Middle East.

B. The United States

Although from the Israeli perspective, in my view, the war is fully justifiable, it is quite a different story for the United States.

First of all, as a lawyer, I am interested in the legal implications of governance and decision making - in Israel, the United States and Canada.  My understanding of the U.S. Constitution is that the  President must have congressional approval for launching a war.  Even President Bush received a resolution that included "all means necessary" before attacking Iraq.  If an operation is due to a pressing and immediate problem, requiring the U.S. to commit limited troops, that is apparently permissible - and was used initially with the Viet Nam war.  But this is an all out war.  I believe that it requires U.S. Congressional support.

Now that doesn't mean that I think congresspeople and senators would or should vote against it.  They would have to listen to the arguments and decide. But they would need to be part of the decision making.

From the U.S. perspective, there are many questions  to be answered.  What is the mid-range and long-range plan if the U.S. dismantles the Iranian leadership? Who will take over?  Will the U.S. commit troops to maintain order?  Will it just create chaos and then leave (See Afghanistan, Iraq etc.,).  What are the casualty estimates for U.S. service people? These are legitimate questions that need to answered and there are many others.

I also wonder what caused Trump to  believe that this attack was in his interest.  His popularity has been sinking to record lows.  I am not sure that this type of war, even if partially successful, is likely to bolster his support.

Although some might argue that  Prime Minister Netanyahu has Trump under some sort of magic spell and has convinced him that it is in the U.S. interest to execute this war, I do not believe that to be the case.  I do not believe that Bibi has the wherewithal,  monetarily, or otherwise to provide Trump with something sufficient in exchange for support.  And Trump is a very transactional president.

So why would Trump agree?  I think the answer is more likely Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is looking to shore up its position in the Middle East, take a leadership role in the Arab World and destroy its enemies.  Saudi Arabia has a wide range of  assets, tools and promises that it could make or provide to  Trump in exchange for support with this war.

For example, Saudi Arabia may have discussed post war oil arrangements with Trump. post-war weapons and security arrangements, a possible peace deal with Israel - maybe even some kind of support to a nascent Palestinian State.  Saudi Arabia has plenty to trade with Trump - more so  then Israel I would argue.  Earlier today, the Israel Times reported  that MBS of  Saudi Arabia had played a key role in "convincing" Trump to move ahead with this war.  In my view, most of the time Trump is "convinced" to do anything, there is some type of transaction involved.  I would love to know the terms but we may never find out  - or it might take quite a  while.  However, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit greatly from regime change in  Iran and  from an even  closer relationship with the United States. As well - Saudi Arabia's apparently close but hidden relationship with Israel could come out of  the closet.

C. Iran

I am probably not qualified to write about this from an Iranian perspective but I think a few comments are worth making.

On the one  hand, Iran clearly read the tea leaves and saw that a massive attack was coming - given all of the hardware that the U.S.  moved into the region.  While the Americans were making some fairly unrealistic demands of the Iranians, the Iranians seemed to have responded with maximum hubris - and what can only be described as a nonchalant response  to the impending war.  A similar mistake to that made by Saddam Hussein years ago.  I am not sure that the Iranians could have come up with sufficient concessions to stop the war, especially if the US. goal was regime change - but they probably could have made a better effort.

My second comment is that I would question the effectiveness of attacking Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others in the region.  Although the Iranian thinking  on this might be that this well pressure the U.S. into stopping the war, I believe that it will likely have the opposite effect and push those countries to further support a complete dismantling of the Iranian government.

Ultimately, I appreciate that the current Iranian government is in survival mode and is hoping to ride this out in any way it can - and stand up to the U.S. / Israeli efforts to support regime change.  I do not know if that is going to be possible - but attacking civilian targets, bringing in other countries into the fighting and making other non-credible threats to U.S. interests - do not seem to be steps that will assist the Iranians.

D. The Rest of the World

The world has been relatively quiet so far in response  to this war.  Canada's Prime Minister issued a lukewarm statement supporting the U.S.  and also stated that Canada had no part in this and was not going to get involved.  Many  other countries - such as Turkey - have been quieter than one  might have expected. I imagine that this will all change as the war goes on.  But the only country in any position to cause some real problems for the U.S. at this point is probably China.  Hopefully they will not have any interest in becoming involved.

E. Conclusion about the War

There have been demonstrations and counterdemonstrations all  around the world.  Many expatriate Iranians have been demonstrating, often with Israelis in the crowd, in favour of the U.S. -Israeli actions and  hoping for a much  better future for Iran.  Others have demonstrated against the war - including, in many cases, those who were supporting Hamas against Israel. 

According to newest reports, Iran has asked to meet with Trump as soon as possible to discuss the war - and Trump has agreed (while telling them it took them way too long). 

At the same time, there is talk that the civilian anti-government demonstrations within Iran that took place in early January may re-start - this time supported to some degree by U.S. and Israeli actions including the possibility of military assistance.

Israeli news has just reported that Trump has had conversations with MBS of Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister of  Netanyahu and the leaders of  Bahrain - and that things might move quicker than expected towards a cease fire.

As discussed above, from Israel's perspective, the only real "win" in this war will be a regime change  - or a major directional change by whoever takes over the Iranian government.  For the U.S., Trump would probably like to see this end as quickly as possible and be able to claim victory.  Hard to predict how this will play out.

Other

I was supposed to be back in Israeli for Purim and this will be the first time in 16 years or so that I am not in Israel for Purim.  I usually read chapter 8 of Megillat Esther - and sometimes 9 and 10 as well.  But  Israeli air space is closed until Tuesday at earliest. For now, I am hoping that I will be back in time for  Pesach.

There are many other topics to write about - hockey, the upcoming academy awards, the travel situation for flights to and from Israel and other topics.  But I am going to leave these topics for now and hope for a speedy and successful conclusion to this war - peace for Israel and the whole middle east - and
with freedom for Iranians - meaning a government that they install and support - and hopefully one that will be committed to long term peaceful middle east - with all of its neighbours- including Israel.

And wishing everyone a happy and healthy Purim!