Thursday, April 16, 2026

Are We Nearing the End of the US/Israel-Iran War?

As I am writing this article, I am listening to the latest Israeli news reports.  There is speculation that there may be a cease fire between Israel and Lebanon - perhaps temporary - perhaps longer term - but we are still waiting for details.  At the same time, there are reports that the U.S. and Iran are making progress towards some kind of broader cease-fire deal - which may initially include a further temporary cease fire between the U.S. and Iran to see if a deal can be concluded.  I will come back to this.  So far - lots of talk but no confirmation that there is a deal.

Even though the war is perhaps the most important  topic - I decided to go in reverse order this time and write about sports and other items first.  So if you  do not like reading my sports updates you can skip down below.

Sports

First of all, as a Canadian, I have to start with ice hockey news.  The Israeli national ice hockey team won Division IIB of the IIHF (International Ice Hockey Federation) Tournament.  Israel finished first in this round robin hockey tournament by beating a variety of ice hockey luminaries including Kyrgyszstan, Iceland, New Zealand, Bulgaria and Chinese Taipai.  The clinching game was a 5-2 win over Iceland on April 12th.  The tournament's leading scorer was Hanadz Malashchanka with 12 points over 5 games.  Israel will now move up one level to the Division II Group A.  In case you are wondering - that would still put them two groups behind the "real" international hockey powerhouse teams.  But for Israel, this is a big and exciting win.

In other sports news, Israelis are filled with pride over the performance of Deni Avdija, who scored 41 points last night in an NBA game to help the Portland Trail Blazers make it into the playoffs.  Israeli news reports that this will be the first time an Israeli player has played in the NBA playoffs.  I have not verified that - and I am not really an avid basketball fan - but Israelis are super excited about this.

Personally, I am getting for a view sleepless nights as I try to watch a few Montreal Canadiens' playoff games and maybe some Edmonton  Oilers games as well.  I will be back in Toronto late next week, so if either or both teams make it through, I will get to watch some games from North America at saner hours.

Random Thoughts

I needed to renew my Israeli passport.  I am used to the Canadian system of filling in a detailed form, going and getting passport pictures somewhere and other steps. In fairness, Canada has simplified things a bit over the years - if you are simply renewing a passport - and you already have one that has not expired yet - or has expired only recently.  Here in Israel, I booked an appointment on-line simply by providing my national ID# - and confirming which type of passport I wanted. I then paid on-line, and booked an appointment. I showed up at the office in Tel-Aviv ( I was a bit late because of the horrible Tel-Aviv traffic but nobody seemed to mind).  I was shuffled over to a machine - that took my photo, took my finger prints, checked my ID card and current passport - and - ta-da - I was done.  No need to talk to anyone, take photos in advance or take any other steps.  Quick and easy.  Now I just need to wait to  collect it. It is supposed to arrive by courier within 4 to 6 weeks.

Travelling back and forth between two countries, I sometimes lose perspective about how different things can be culturally on different sides of the world. I felt it quite a bit today when I walked into a crowded coffee/baked goods shop.  People were calling in their orders from all over the shop - "hey Kobi - make me a double latte - no foam" - and the different staff working behind the counter were simply taking the orders and trying to keep up.  "No problem sweetie, did you want that for here or to go."  This was quite a far cry from a Starbucks, Second Cup or even a Canadian  branch of Aroma (an Israeli chain) where there is an orderly line and an evident ordering system in place. Now in fairness, if you walk into one of the bigger chains in Israel, like Arcaffe (one of our favourites of the Israeli chains), the experience is much more like being in North America.  But in a smaller local shop - well this seemed like much more of the Israeli experience and it is very different from the North American experience for sure.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah

Yesterday was the Day of Commemoration of the Holocaust and Heroism in Israel and around the world.  In some years, I have dedicated my whole blog simply to that day.  I was not able to write a blog yesterday or the day before - so I decided to include some comments here.  That is not intended to diminish the importance of the day.

On Monday night, we decided to watch the national televised ceremony rather than attending the in-person commemoration in Ra'anana.  Given that we still do not have a cease fire in place with Lebanon, there are still some restrictions in place for public gatherings.  Prime Minister Netanyahu went to significant lengths to politicize the day by drawing comparisons between the Iranians and the Nazis.  Aside from  his speech, there were some powerful musical performances and wreath-laying ceremonies.

In Israel, on Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, the whole country comes to somewhat of a standstill. All restaurants and shops close early in the evening  (this year on Monday) and the TV stations show Holocaust related programming exclusively for a 24 hour period - other than news. At 10 a.m., there is a two minute siren throughout the country.  Israelis stop what they are doing - and stand at attention.  Even those who are on the highway stop their cars and get out to stand at attention.  It is very powerful.

Commemoration of the Holocaust and its six million Jewish victims is of paramount importance in the Jewish State of Israel - as is the recollection of the bravery of those who fought the Nazis and the remembrance of those, including non-Jews, who went out of their way to help save Jewish people.  For Israel, so much of the messaging is tied to the central idea that only having a strong Israel could have prevented this horrible event - and is the only way to protect the Jewish people today - especially in the face of raging anti-Semitism in so many countries.

We watched a variety of documentaries - including "One  Flight For Us."  This documentary looks back at the failure of the U.S. army to bomb the railways or death camps, despite flying over different  camps repeatedly.  It includes interviews with U.S. politicians, historians and  others looking back at historical records to assess what the U.S. and its allies knew about what was going on in Nazi Germany, when they knew and what they might have been able to do.  The movie also ties that in with an arranged fly-over carried out by Israeli fighter pilots, who flew over Auschwitz symbolically to represent a very different reality.  This type of movie demonstrates the Israeli viewpoint that  although the message of the Holocaust does have universalist warnings and messages, it is ultimately the targeting of and impact on the  Jewish people that is most significant for us, as Jews.  I note, parenthetically, that this difference between a universalist message and a particularist one is evident if one contrast visits to Yad Vashem (the Israeli Holocaust Museum) versus the National Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C., for example.

For  the  Canadian side of things, I participated in a Law Society of Ontario Zoom program dealing with the latest developments in the area of hate speech in Canada - including a recent criminal conviction for a Holocaust denier.

I have written more about this subject in other  blogs - and they are searchable using my index if you would like to read more of my thoughts on this.  As is the case with so many Jewish people, it is a subject very close to my heart - as we have many ancestors and extended family members who were victims of the Holocaust as well as some who were survivors or the descendants of survivors.

Justice, Justice You Shall  Pursue

In case you did not recognize it, that is the approximate translation of "Tzedek Tzedek Tirdof" which appears in the Torah in the book of Dvarim (Deuteronomy).  So I adopted that line as my intro for a few comments on legal proceedings in Israel.

The Israeli Supreme Court, yesterday,  in a nine-person panel, heard a petition to remove Minister Itamar Ben Gvir from his role as cabinet minister.  The argument, in part, was that he had breached various duties, obligations and laws, and was eroding the independence of the police force by appointing more than 1,200 loyalists (Ben-Gvir's numbers) to key positions without the proper jurisdiction to do so.  I am not going to get into a detailed  discussion of this now - but it raises all kinds of issues  as to the boundaries of judicial jurisdiction weighed against political prerogative and authority.  Various members of the Likud Party and Ben-Gvir's party appeared at the  hearing and tried to disrupt it until they were thrown out of the hearing by the court.  As well, there were dozens of demonstrators outside of the courthouse arguing that the vary fact that the Court was hearing this type of petition was inappropriate and an  overreach by the court. 

At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu was granted a further two week adjournment of his criminal hearing due to "security issues."  Netanyahu is becoming quite concerned that if the war ends and he has not been pardoned, his trial will move along at a much faster clip and might even be headed towards a verdict.  I have discussed this in the past and I won't belabour it other than to say that it is my view that it is highly unlikely that he will be able to emerge from this unscathed if it goes to a verdict.  In my view, he will either get his pardon, reach a plea bargain deal or find some other way out of it before a verdict is ever handed down.  This is simply because he and his team know that there is overwhelming evidence on some of the counts (otherwise the case would not have proceeded in the first place) and their main strategy is to delay the process and ensure that it never gets to a verdict.

War Update

Israel is still involved in ongoing wars on several fronts, the most active being the battles with Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.

As you know, the U.S. and Iran are still in the midst of a two-week cease fire period and are actively negotiating to try to find a way to end the conflict.  Some of the latest reports suggest that Iran has agreed to turn over its enriched uranium, if not to the U.S. then to an agreed upon country, and the U.S. has agreed to release millions of dollars in frozen funds.  At the same time, the U.S. has also increased its military contingent in the region, either as an increased threat to Iran or as part of a plan to restart the war.  I am simply not in a position to assess what will happen next week.  Certainly from the direction that things appear to be taking, it is looking likely that there will either be a further extension of the cease fire or an outright deal. The deal will certainly include Israel as well.

The situation with Lebanon is somewhat different.  Lebanon and Israel have no reason to be involved in hostilities. Israelis believe that the majority of Lebanese would like to have a full peace deal with Lebanon.  However, approximately 30% of Lebanon is Shi'a Muslim - and some of that population supports Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran - a terrorist militia operating throughout Lebanon to do the bidding of Iran, attack Israel (and/or Syria if called upon) and give Iran power and influence in the country. Hezbollah does not control the government but has often been part of it.  However, it is a powerful extra-governmental militia, funded, armed and supported by Iran - that has attacked Israel, both in October 2023 (when Hamas attacked Israel) and now in the current war after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran.  In fact, Hezbollah is still firing rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones and other weaponry at Israel, aiming mostly at civilian populations.  

Iran tried to insist that any ceasefire included a cease fire in Lebanon.  However, Israel is not interested in leaving large numbers of armed terrorists on its border without a commitment from Lebanon to reign in these terrorists and prevent attacks.

Despite all of this, Israeli officials met with Lebanese officials for one of the first times ever, face to face, to discuss these issues and try to work towards a resolution.  For Israel, that would mean disarming Hezbollah and getting an assurance from the  Lebanese government that no attacks on Israel will take place from Lebanese soil.  The concern is that the Lebanese government is probably too weak to implement that type of deal.  So this one continues to be tricky and it remains to be seen what type of arrangement can be negotiated.

In the meantime, we have had one family member stationed up in Southern Lebanon/ Northern Israel, who thankfully returned today for at least the next week or so. So many Israelis from across the country are currently serving in reserve duty -  in Gaza, near the Lebanese border and  in all kinds of other positions.

Next Week

Now, after observing Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, we are headed towards Israel's Memorial Day for Soldiers and Victims of Terror (one of the saddest days of the year) (on Monday night and  Tuesday) and then Israel's Independence Day (Yom Haatzmaut) (one of the happiest days of the year) on Tuesday night and  Wednesday.  All of these events are taking place while a cloud of certainty still hangs over the country, waiting to see what will happen with the unresolved wars.

But no matter what the situation is, most Israelis will find a way to light up the barbecue and get together with friends or family on Tuesday or Wednesday and celebrate the modern state of Israel's 78th anniversary - even if that means being in and out of shelters and protected rooms in between the chicken wings, kebabs and skewers.









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