Israeli Election Primer 1 - 2026

We are at 14 days before the next Israeli election - which will be held on October 27, 2026.  I thought it was about time that I put together a bit of an election primer - with some comments about what to expect, some peculiarities of voting in Israel - and some other election related comments.  So if you are not interested in reading about the upcoming Israeli elections - this may not be the blog for you. 

I have written blogs about the Israeli system, the parties and the way things work before past elections but I thought I should review some of that again - since it can be very confusing.

1. The Basics

As you may know, the Israeli electoral system is a parliamentary democracy - much like Canada or the UK or some other European countries.  Unlike Canada, the U.S. and the UK, there are no "districts."  The election is based solely on popular vote - one person one vote - and the Knesset seats are distributed in proportion to the voting percentages.  

There are 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament - the "Knesset" - so each 1% of the national vote -would mean 1.2 seats in the Knesset.

Israel has a minimum threshold, which is currently set at 3.25%.  This means that if a party runs and gets less than 3.25% of the popular vote - the votes are redistributed among the other parties - in proportion to the other results.  If a party gets just over the 3.25%, they automatically get 4 seats in the Knesset, the minimum number.

In order to form a government, you need to either win 61 seats in a general election (which has never happened in Israel's history) or you need to cobble together a coalition of parties that adds up to 61 seats.  Unlike Canada or the UK, you cannot really run the government with a "minority" government.  Since the government must secure the confidence of the Knesset to put its cabinet in place, pass legislation, appoint Ministers etc., groups must be able to show an agreement with at least 61 seats in a coalition bloc.

A government or a governing coalition can stay in power for up to 4 years - or until the government collapses - whichever comes first.  Many governments collapse before the full 4-year term - since it is often difficult to hold a wide range of parties and their interests together for a lengthy period of time.

The current Israeli government, which is the 25th Knesset but apparently the 37th government in Israel's 76 year history has a coalition made up of 67 or 68 MKs (there is one MK who votes with the government but is not necessarily still part of it at this point).  The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has 32 of those seats.  The current coalition is made up of two ultra-religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) and two "far-right" parties - Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) (Ben-Gvir) and the Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich).

This current governing coalition managed to stay in power for its full terms and the elections are taking place because the four year time period will have passed.

2. A few more Basics - Okay - Advanced Basics

Since Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, it is very easy to put together a party and start running.  It is not as easy to get into the Knesset since you need 3.25% of the national vote to get in.  But that does not deter many people from running.  There are apparently about 37 registered parties this time around but realistically - there are between 11 and 13 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset.  There are another 4 parties or so - that think they can make it in but do not seem to be getting those results in any published polls.

You must vote in person in Israel - on the day of the elections. So you must be physically in the country and, of course, be an Israeli citizen, if you would like to vote. Only posted overseas diplomats and military personnel can vote by advance or absentee ballot.

Israel uses its own unique ballot system.  Once your identity is properly verified (by an independent panel representing different parties) - you go into the polling booth and pick out a small piece of paper that has the initials of the party that you would like to vote for printed on it. In other words, there is a big box with compartments in each voting booth filled with different slips, organized by party.  You put one of them in the envelope, seal it and deposit it into the ballot box.

It takes a very long time to get the results!  Unlike Canada or the U.S., the Israeli polling stations do not release results on an ongoing basis.  Apparently, the ballots are counted and then forwarded on to another station. The results are not released "in real time" that evening.

Instead, different media outfits - stand outside polling stations and ask people how they voted (answering is strictly voluntary and is recorded secretly).  The media outlets then report these results - even though they are certainly not official or anywhere close to it - and are sometimes wildly off from the actual results.

So election night in Israel is not nearly as riveting (in the same way) as an election in the U.S. or Canada can be with the live results pouring in by the minute. In Israel, you may not know the actual results until the next morning or even late the next day - though the "polls" are sometimes decisive enough to be reasonably accurate.

That's not to say that Israeli election results are predictable - they are certainly not - (in many cases).  And the results can differ quite a bit from what the pre-election polls were suggesting. But getting the actual results takes much longer.  Even hard core political junkies may not be able to watch for 20 hours straight until the results are more or less clear.

There are a few other interesting rules - like "surplus voting arrangements" whereby a party can make a deal with one other party to share any "surplus votes" rather than have them go back into the pool.  This only works for parties that have passed the minimum threshold. But I don't think I really need to get into a discussion of that for now.

3. The Parties

I am going to look at the governing coalition first - and take a quick run through its parties as well as the parties that are likely to join the current governing coalition if they make it in to the Knesset.

A. Governing Coalition

i. The Likud

One of Israel's largest and most powerful parties, this is the party of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and goes into this election for the 38th Israeli government with a bloc of 32 seats.  Netanyahu has been plagued by his personal legal problems including his ongoing criminal trial - and has been fighting to distance himself from any responsibility for the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023.  Netanyahu is a master politician, who knows how to win elections.  He often comes up with last minute surprises - which is why his nickname in Hebrew is the "magician."  For years, he painted himself as "Mr. Security" and campaigned on the idea that no one else could possibly fill his shoes. As a result of the the October 7th war, Netanyahu's image has absorbed some damage.  Many Israelis, including many of those on the right of the spectrum, believe that Netanyahu has pandered to the ultra-religious and refused to enact a stronger draft bill - that would ensure that more of the Haredim enlist in the army.  Others are concerned that by giving Ben-Gvir a portfolio covering the police and a range of internal matters, Netanyahu has let things get out of control in Judea and Samaria.  The world is paying attention to unchecked settler riots and pogroms in these territories and the Israeli government has not done nearly enough to stop these activities. Many Israelis are also upset that three years after the events of October 7th, there has still not been an exhaustive national inquiry (or any inquiry) and the security situation is not really in a better place than it was before this current government took charge.

Most polling numbers are projecting a drop in seats for the Likud party from 32 down to somewhere between 19 and 23. Many Likud Knesset members are likely to lose their seats.  

ii. Shas

Shas is the second largest party in the current government bloc.  It is an ultra-religious, Sephardi party led by a twice-convicted felon, Aryeh Deri.  The first time around, it was fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Deri spent 22 months in prison from 2009 and was released from the balance of his 3 year term for "good behaviour."  Shas pushes to help the ultra-orthodox Sephardi community by securing government funding for preferential housing, funding for religious institutions, medical care in ultra-religious neighbourhoods, all while generally opposing military enlistment.  In Israel's earlier history, Shas was willing to go along with the Labour bloc of parties - for the right financial deal. More recently, and certainly over the past several elections, Shas has been entirely tied to the Netanyahu camp - mainly because Netanyahu has been the only one willing to give Shas what it wants.  (And to agree to appoint Deri as the Minister of the Interior - even though he was convicted of offences twice while holding that role).  I don't think I need to say more about Deri - the convictions speak for themselves - other than to note that, like Bibi, he is a master campaigner and politician, who has a way of rounding up his base voters - no matter what he might do.  Or perhaps they figure whatever he is up to - is for their benefit.  Shas has 11 seats in the current Knesset.  Most polls are projecting them to wind up with 7 or 8.  I'm not sure where these voters will go - perhaps to Ben Gvir, Smotrich or Winter - see below.

iii. United Torah Judaism

Made up of two ultra orthodox (Haredi) Ashkenazi parties - this is the primary group representing Me'ah Sh'arim in Jerusalem, areas of Bet Shemesh and other Ashkenazi, Ultra-Orthodox areas.  These parties are anti-Zionist. They refuse to serve in the army - or study secular subjects. They look to the state to fund their lifestyle of Torah study, large families supported by state funds, housing subsidies, food subsidies and a state sponsored network of Yeshivas and rabbinically-governed organizations including the whole Kashrut system.  They have 7 seats in the current Knesset and are likely to wind up with a similar number.  It seems unlikely that they could wind up in any government other than a Likud-led government.  While some of the other parties might be willing to pay them off - other Knesset parties and members including Lieberman, Lapid, Bennett and Golan - are not willing to give UTJ anything close to what they want.  UTJ current has 7 seats in the Knesset. They are likely to wind up with the same number.  

iv. Otzma Yehudit

This party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir is a far right party and successor of the old Kahane-led Kach party (which was banned from the Israeli Knesset). Ben-Gvir is an active, talented politician-demagogue.  Once viewed as too extreme to join any centrist government, he has been playing a key role in the current Netanyahu government.  Ben-Gvir has been characterized in the media as racist, anti-Arab, extremist and in all kinds of other even more colourful language. Ben-Gvir has a criminal record for "incitement" among other crimes and was deemed too extreme to go to the army.  Nevertheless, he is currently Israel's Minister of National Security, even though Netanyahu adamantly stated that Ben-Gvir would not be Minister in his government before the last election.  He is now running a campaign demanding that he be the Minister of Defence in the next Netanyahu government.  

Despite his harsh and extremist views, Ben-Gvir often makes public media appearances, engaging those who disagree with him with a big smile and a sense of humour, while often brandishing his handgun with little provocation.  He has cultivated an almost "campy" image - which is the way he is portrayed on "Eretz Nehederet" (the Israeli equivalent of Saturday Night Live).  At the same time, the show also portrays him as a foaming-at-the-mouth extremist.  Ben Gvir's party is currently at 7 seats in the Knesset but could wind up with 7 to 10 seats after this coming election.

v. Religious Zionist Party

This party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, was originally the successor of the old "Mafdal" party - a party of which Naftali Bennett was originally an active member.  

Smotrich is a lawyer by profession.  His views are fairly similar to those of Ben-Gvir.  He has been subjected to international sanctions by a wide range of countries for permitting, or encouraging violence against Arab civilians.

Smotrich has been serving as the Minister of Finance in the current Likud-led government.  

Other than the personality clashes, I am not sure what distinguishes Smotrich's views from those of Ben-Gvir - though Smotrich is not nearly as talented a speaker as Ben-Gvir.  Smotrich's party currently has six seats in the Knesset.  At the start of the campaign, polling numbers were projecting that this party would not pass the threshold and would be ousted from the Knesset.  

Smotrich added Moshe Feiglin and his Zehut (Identity) party into the mix as his number 2 candidate.  Since then, most polls have put the RZP at anywhere from 4 to 7 seats.  I think there is a strong likelihood that they will make it into the Knesset.  My best guess would be 4 to 6.

That is more or less the roundup of the parties that are part of the current governing coalition.  If you add all of that up - it comes to a range of 44 to 54 seats. That is a fairly wide range. Sometimes an increase for one party would come at the expense of another party.  In other words, it is unlikely that each party in this coalition could maximize its numbers because the pool of voters they are all drawing from is the same pool.  

These numbers are not enough to form a government.  Netanyahu and the Likud would need to get at least 28-30 seats, in my view, to be able to form a government and they would need those seats to come from centrist voters rather than voters in Netanyahu's existing coalition.  There are three more parties to mention.

Vi. Amcha Yisrael

Led by Ofer Winter, this is another far-right nationalist party, that is largely indistinguishable in its views and policies from the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.  Winter has a much more developed military background. He held high ranking positions and, usually, sounds more rational than either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich.  He has campaigned on the platform that all members of the current government who were in power when October 7th happened should be replaced.  On the other hand - he says that he is a firm part of the right wing bloc - and the only leader he could support would be Netanyahu.  These two positions do not really go well together - and when Winter or anyone else in his party are asked about it - they get tongue-tied trying to explain their position.  They are hovering around the electoral threshold but I think that they are likely to wind up with 4 seats, maybe even 5.  However, these seats could come at the expense of Smotrich or Ben-Gvir.  So there is a chance that either Smotrich's party or Winter's party will make it in - and the other party will fail to pass.  If Amcha Yisrael, the RZP and Otzma Yehudit all make it into the Knesset, that will mean 14-18 far-right Knesset members - and they will all have to be part of a government for Netanyahu to stay in power.  In other words, Israel could wind up with an even further to the right government than it currently has.

Vii. Reservists / the Financial Party

This self-described right centre party is led by Yoaz Hendel and Economics professor Yaron Zelekha. Hendel is on the right centre of the Israeli political spectrum.  He holds a PhD in history and has been a very active reserve officer of the IDF.  Hendel has been strongly opposed to a government forming with Monsour Abbas in the coalition, which has meant that he is unlikely to hold the balance of power in a coalition government.  Up until recently, Hendel's party was polling at under the threshold.  They are now flirting with getting 4 seats.  They are a wild card since they could agree to join a Netanyahu government - or they could go with the opposition.  Ultimately, I don't think that they are going to pass the threshold but they could wind up with 4 or even 5 seats - which would make things really interesting.  These seats would probably come from the opposition - so I think if Hendel's party does get in - it is likely to mean lower numbers for the other opposition parties - or some of them.

Viii. National Unity - Benny Gantz

When Benny Gantz first arrived on the Israeli political scene - he was seen as a great hope for the centre of Israeli politics.  Someone who could take on Netanyahu and wrest away power from the Likud.  Gantz first got involved in politics in 2018 but kept his views very guarded.  He held an initial press conference to announce his candidacy but refused to provide any specifics of his new party's platforms or proposals.  At his peak in 2019, Gantz's party won 33 seats but could not form a government.  He eventually reached a rotation agreement with Netanyahu whereby he would serve as Minister of Defence in Netanyahu's government and then eventually Prime Minister.  The government collapsed and Gantz never got his rotation.

The perception of Gantz among many Israelis is that he is a weak leader who lacks the ability to stand up to Netanyahu's bullying tactics.  Although Gantz's party now has 12 seats in the Knesset, they are not projected by any of the polls to pass the electoral threshold.  Gantz has stubbornly refused to drop out since he is receiving state funds for his election campaign because of his seats from the 2022 election.  

I think it is highly unlikely that Gantz will pass the threshold.

If, somehow, 2 or 3 of these parties were to make it in - for example Amcha and the Reservists - and the Likud was at the high end of projections with 54 - they may be able to cobble together a government with 61-63 seats.  The other possibility is that the Netanyahu "mystique" works its magic closer to election day and Netanyahu surprises with 28-30 seats for the Likud.

I guess I have to go out on a limb.  After all, it is only fun to write blogs like this - if I actually put myself out there and make some predictions - even if they wind up being wrong.  I think that the entire Likud-led bloc, including Amcha and the others will be stuck at somewhere between 54 and 58 and unable to form a government.  

Which means we might be in for a stalemate and a new election after about 3-4 months.  But I will look at the opposition and go through their parties in a similar way.

I think I may have mentioned that this would be a lengthy blog.  Sorry but I hope you are finding it interesting.

B. The Opposition

i. Yashar - led by Eisenkot

The current opposition party that is leading in projected seats is the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli IDF general, whose son was killed in Gaza in the most recent war.

Eisenkot is considered a centrist on the Israeli political landscape.  Many commentators have written that the party's name "straight" is perfectly suited to Eisenkot - who is generally seen a person representing values of decency, integrity, service to the State of Israel - and devotion to his family.

Eisenkot is an advocate of equality values in Israel and has actively campaigned to ensure that more ultra-religious Jews are drafted into the army.

His party is polling at between 20 and 24 seats.  These are probably people who previously voted for Gantz or Lapid's party.

Netanyahu's main attack on Eisenkot is that he will not be able to form a government and will rely on anti-Zionist Arab parties.  Eisenkot has denied this and has pledged that his proposed coalition will get more than 61 seats.

He is not super-charismatic but he does project a sense of decency.  Faced with a skilled debater like Netanyahu, Eisenkot could wind up in a real fight.  But as a career military man, he is not one to shy away from a good fight.  He has lots of ammunition to use against Netanyahu and he has been willing to use it.

Since Eisenkot's party has never run - it will be interesting to see what actually happens on election day. Will they come in well ahead of the polls, well below the polls or right at their projected numbers .  This will really be a key determining factor as to whether Israel might see a change of government.  If Eisenkot can get 25 or more seats - and beat the Likud numbers - he might be able to piece together a government.

ii. Beyachad (Bennett and Lapid)

This is a really interesting party.  Made up of Naftali Bennet's party combined with Lapid's Yesh Atid - the party is a mishmash of centrists, right-centre politicians and slightly left-centre politicians.  The current Knesset had 23 Yesh Atid members and Bennet did not run in 2022.  Now the party is hovering around 12-14.  Bennett came from the right of the spectrum but is seen as someone who "sold out" by making a deal with Monsour Abbas to be able to form a government.  Bennett continues to describe himself has solidly in the right-wing camp. Some members of his own party pulled the plug on his previous government.  Lapid is seen by some right-centrists as too far to the left (even though he really isn't). So when Bennett and Lapid joined forces, their respective supporters felt alienated.  Nevertheless, Bennett is charismatic and thoughtful and has been campaigning all over the country - even in places where he is not popular.  Like Eisenkot, Bennett really does project a sense of decency and competency.  He could also surprise the pollsters with a higher than predicated showing.

iii.  Democrats

Not to be confused with the U.S. Democratic party, this party is a fusion of the old Israeli Labour Party, mixed together with the Meretz party - a far left secularist party.  Golan is a reserve Major General in the army. On October 7, 2023, he sprang into action, "re-enlisted" to the army, received a weapon and munitions and headed down to the Gaza envelope where he rescued several people.

Golan's party is the furthest left of any of the major Israeli parties running for election - other than the communist/ socialist Arab parties.  Golan is a strong advocate of equality of all types - gender equality, sexual orientation equality, religious equality and other forms.  His party is probably the only Jewish-Israeli party running that it is promoting a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute currently.

As a politician, Golan is much tougher and more "in your face" than Eisenkot.  His views are seen as extreme by a big chunk of the Israeli electorate.  He is someone who will never back down to any kind of Netanyahu pressure. 

One of the concerns that many potential Eisenkot voters are having is the concern that Eisenkot may turn into Gantz and get chewed up by Netanyahu.  Neither Bennett nor Golan are seen as having that concern.

The Israeli Labour party only has 4 seats in current Knesset.  Golan's party is now project to get 9 to 12.

iv. Yisrael Beitenu - "Israel is our Home" - led by Avigdor Lieberman

This party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, has significant support from the Russian community in Israel.

Lieberman is right wing on issues involving Palestinian-Jewish or Arab-Israeli disputes, though at one time in the past, he backed a plan to divide the country and have the Arab Israelis become part of any nascent Palestinian state or federation.

Lieberman is more libertarian on issues including separation of religion from the state, to some degree, and military service or the equivalent for all Israeli citizens.

As a former Likud party member, Lieberman worked closely with Netanyahu in several different governments and has held posts as Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Lieberman, like Bennett and Eisenkot, believes that he is running to be the Prime Minister and maintains that his experience and his right-wing credentials would make him a compromise candidate for the opposition.

In the current Knesset, Lieberman's party has 6 seats.  The party might make it to 8 or 9 based on recent polls but I am going to predict 6 to 8.

So if we add up these four opposition parties - we get to somewhere between 49 and 59.  Yes that is a wide range - and yes - the same issue applies to this bloc as it applied to the governing bloc. Some votes may come from other parties within the same coalition.

Ultimately, I have not seen any recent polls or projections that would give the opposition 61 seats.  

Are there are any other options?  Well, one option would be a deal with the Reservists - if they were to make it.  Let's say the Reservists had 5 and the opposition bloc had 56. That could get to 61 but would be a very shaky government, not likely to last.

Would Winter's party join?  He says absolutely not - that he is ONLY supporting Netanyahu. But he also says he wants a new government.  Could he be pried away from the Netanyahu bloc? Depending on the numbers, I don't think we could rule it out.

But, of course, there are still two more parties and two more options..

C. The Arab Parties

i. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, a devout Muslim, this has been the first Muslim-Arab Israeli party to show an interest in joining a Jewish-Israeli led government and playing an active role.

Abbas is a Muslim-Arab-Israeli - who grew up in Israel.  He is a dentist by profession who has studied at Hebrew University and University of Haifa.  He is, of course, fluent in Hebrew.

Abbas is a very skilled and tactful politician, who routinely appears on Hebrew language talk shows.  He is happy to answer all sorts of questions - and is often faced with hostility from the Israeli right wing.

Abbas has conservative views on social issues and has been willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. From many different assessments that I have read - he did a fine job as a minister in the relatively short-lived Bennett government - and I think he would make a great minister in a future government.

Perhaps that is not a popular view among many Israelis - especially those on the right of the political spectrum.

More recently - Abbas recruited Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Israeli retired police major general - to serve as his #2 candidate - which is really quite a fascinating step for an Arab Israeli party.  Segalovitz has strong security minded credentials and is not viewed as an extreme leftist. But he is now running as a high ranking member of the Ra'am party - which, I believe, is a first in Israeli politics.

Ra'am currently has five seats in the Israeli Knesset and I believe that they will wind up with 5 or 6 once again.  The question is whether they will wind up helping the opposition take control of the government.  So far, Lieberman, Eisenkot and Bennett have all opposed forming a government with Ra'am. But I don't think we can fully rule out some type of arrangement if that is what it will take to oust Netanyahu.

Joint List

This is a group of three Arab Israeli parties - Hadash, Balad and Ta'al.

Unlike Abbas' party, these three parties tend to be strongly anti-Zionist and opposed to any type of active participation in the government.

These parties are rooted in Arab nationalism, socialism or communism and a great deal of anti-Israel rhetoric.

In fact. this year, Sami Abu Shehadeh, who was the leader of the Balad party, was disqualified from running in the current election due to comments he made that were perceived as glorifying the October 7, 2026 massacres.  Abu Shehadeh appealed to the Supreme Court.  During the hearing, the President of the Court told Abu Shehadeh that the votes were there to expel him - and gave him the choice of withdrawing on his own - which he opted to do.  His party, Balad is still running.

These joint list parties could wind up with 10-15 seats in the Knesset but they have no interest in joining a "Zionist" government - and the Zionist parties have no interest in having them join.  

One could question whether this really benefits the Arab Israeli community.  Would they not be better off - adjusting some of their positions - and trying to join the government like Ra'am? Surely this would assist Arab Israelis far more than staying on the side lines.  But that is perhaps for another day.

Political Conclusion

Looking at all of the above, I have concluded that, as of October 13, 2026, the most likely outcome is a stalemate.  There will then be a fight over whether Netanyahu remains on as the interim Prime Minister until a new election can be held - or whether the opposition parties, including the Arab parties - will find a way to change the interim government.  I am going to put a stalemate at just about 50%.

I think, based on current numbers, the second most likely event is a Netanyahu government of some sort. I'll put that at about 30%.

Finally, that leaves the opposition - who I think is now sitting at only about a 20% chance of forming a government.

These are all wild guesses based on my analyses of polls, online articles, listening to various commentators and putting my finger up to the wind to gage some general Israeli sentiments that I am hearing.  But of course, we will have to wait until October 27th or perhaps the 28th or 29th to see where the numbers are at -and try to determine what will be happening next.

I hope you found this interesting.  It wound up being a lot longer than I expected - and taking a lot more time.  So much so that I will leave other topics to my next blog.

Political Blog: Days Before Israel Closes its Candidate Lists 2026

It is a long weekend in North America - Labour Day Weekend - but not here in Israel. Unfortunately, there are no real long weekends in Israel.  Sunday is generally a regular work day - and Shabbat is a different kind of day - where many things  are closed.  Although many Israelis do not work on Fridays - schools are open in most parts of Israel - and many people do work.  So there is no real equivalent of Sunday - where people can go shopping, go on trips with their family, sign the kids up for sports and other activities - etc.,

As well - there are no real "long weekend" holidays - the equivalent of Victoria Day in Canada or Memorial Day in the US, or Labour Day or the August Long Weekend ("Simcoe Day" in Ontario.  

That's not to say Israel has a shortage of holidays - we have lots.  But most of them are Jewish Holy Days - which for observant people - mean no work, no travelling, no commerce etc.,  So these days are not "free holidays" - the way that people in other countries enjoy days off.  One day that is close is Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day  - where people often get together for barbecues or visits to some of  Israel's national parks.  Another time period is the two periods of Hol-Hamoed - during Sukkot and during  Pesach, when many Israelis have time off.  Parenthetically, many Israelis, especially non-observant Israelis, travel out of the country during those periods of time.  Others travel within Israel, which means the roads and highways are completely jammed.

In a way, none of this affects me directly, since my work is primarily Canada based - so I can be off on Labour Day and Sundays, even though these are regular work days for most other Israelis.  The Jewish Holy Days can be more of a challenge - but that was the case even while I was in Toronto - and for anyone observing these Holy Days outside of Israel. It is certainly easier in years like this when some of the major holy days fall on weekends.

We plan to make the most of the Labour Day holiday tomorrow - and take a drive up north - towards the Golan Heights.  Perhaps a winery or two is in our future, perhaps a bee farm - where we might pick up some honey for the upcoming holidays -and perhaps an olive oil production factory.  Or maybe we will stop at a chocolate producer.  It might be a bit hot for walk in a national park - but there are some really great ones in northern Israel.

Upcoming Elections

We are in overdrive with election news here in Israel.  Even though the election is not scheduled to take place until October 27th, there is a huge date coming up this week on Wednesday - the date by which all parties have to finalize their candidate lists.  Watching the news unfold - feels like watching the quarter-finals or semi-finals of a sports tournament - so many things going on.

There is a fairly short explanation for this.  There are currently 16 parties listed as having a chance to make it into the Knesset. Right now only 12 of these parties are projected to make it, based on current polls.  Parties need 3.25% to get into the Knesset - at which point they start off with 4 seats (in the 120 member Knesset).  If they don't make it - their votes all get wasted and redistributed, proportionately, among those that have made it in.  

This means that the parties that are close to or below the threshold are negotiating furiously to find options that would get them into the Knesset through amalgamation - or  other deals.  Alternatively, if the picture looks really bad - some of these parties will have to decide whether to fold and not run.

I will write more about all of this once everything  has closed and the final slates are in - but here are a view interesting pieces of information and a few comments on each of the main parties running now.

The Likud

The current governing party - the Likud, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is running at between 19 and 22 seats in most polls - other than Channel 14 (A Fox-type pro-Bibi station) which has the Likud at 31. These polls also project Likud being able to secure between 47 and 53 coalition members, which is well short of the 61 needed to form a government.  There is still lots of time - but there is no question that Bibi is starting to panic looking at these numbers.

Last Sunday night - he gave one of his first interviews in a long time - and came with up his latest spin on the horrifying events of October 7, 2026.  Bibi says "I was asleep when the various military personnel met at 3 a.m. that day (3 hours before the attacks started). They were scared to wake me up because they were worried that I would launch massive counterattacks immediately and throw the whole Mideast into turmoil."  He softly denied that he was promoting a conspiracy theory but of course claimed that everyone had failed - the army, the intelligence, the secret services, - everyone except Bibi.

Later in the week, his office released his schedule and it is quite clear that he received full updates at about 625 a.m. when the attacks began.  No one really knows (at this point) what Bibi did between 6:30 and 10 a.m. but he did not speak with the army commander until approximately 10 a.m. Hardly the schedule of someone who would "spring into action" at the first sign of any problems.

Coupled with this, Netanyahu's wife Sara had been on TV for an interview a day earlier - and she basically suggested that Yair Golan, the leader of the Democratic Party (in Israel) (Not affiliated  in any way with the US Democrats) had known about the attacks ahead of time and already had his uniform on and arrived at the massacre site very early in the day to join in the fighting.  In fact she wondered why Golan knew what was going on and was already fighting while her husband was still asleep and wasn't informed. (It is indeed a funny sort of conspiracy allegation to suggest that Golan knew about the pending attack in advance - but would also be one of the first people to go and risk his life to stop it.  Doesn't sound like a great plan to me).

I won't spend too much time on  this - other  than to say that Golan received calls starting at 6:30 a.m. - went and put on a uniform and arranged to get weapons and headed down to the Gaza area as quickly as he could.  The people he went with are credited with saving more than 125 people. He put his life in danger, unquestionably - to go and try to save Israelis and defend the country. The suggestion that he knew about the attacks in advance is simply unhinged and provides much more information about Sara Netanyahu's mental state than  it does about Golan.

Golan promptly issued a libel warning to Sara Netanyahu - with a demand that she issue a full apology within 24 hours. Sara Netanyahu refused and I believe that Golan will now sue her as he has threatened.  He has threatened to sue for one million shequels and donate the proceeds to he victims of the October 7, 2023 attacks. From a legal point of view - it looks like a slam dunk case to me. She has no immunity since she is not a Knesset member, the allegations are clearly malicious and they are false.  Her supporters have claimed that she didn't actually suggest that there was a conspiracy - but I do not think any judges would buy that defence. Of course Sara, a convicted felon (for fraud and other financial improprieties) is no stranger to defending lawsuits.  Aside from her criminal matters, she has had a rash of lawsuits from former employees - mostly alleging torts like intentional infliction of emotional distress, abusive treatment and failure to comply with employment laws.

In any case, this is apparently the Netanyahu game plan for dealing with the events of October 7, 2023 - avoid taking responsibility, suggest a left-wing conspiracy, and launch all kinds of personal attacks on others with a whole range of attack ads aimed at the various opposition members claiming that they are "enemies of the state."

I guess it remains to be seen whether Israelis will buy all of this.  Hopefully not.

Yashar

This is a party led by former IDF General Gadi Eisenkot, which is running on more of a centrist platform (okay - right-centre really).  The party's name means "straight" or "straightforward" and one of the key elements of the platform is an explicit (and sometimes implicit) attack on the corruption of the current coalition.  Eisenkot's party is polling at between 21 and 25 seats. In most polls, it is ahead of the Likud, which would give it the first opportunity to build a government coalition.  Currently, even with all of its potential coalition allies, it is only polling at  between 55 and 58 seats.  That would put them at 3 to 6 seats short of being able to form a government.  One option would be to cut a deal with one or more of the three ultra-nationalist parties.  This is possible but unlikely since there would be such a wide diversity of views on so many issues.  Another possibility is that they could form a government with one of the ultra-religious parties. Again this seems unlikely since neither Eisenkot nor his other coalition members seem ready or willing to give the ultra-religious what they are seeking. A third possibility is another government with Monsour Abbas and his Ra'am party (like the government that Bennett formed when he was Prime Minister).  Although the various coalition members are claiming that they will not do this - I think that this option is something that is quite possible - if Yashar gets 57-60 other coalition seats.

B'yachad

B'yachad ("together") is a coalition made up of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former short serving Prime Minister Yair Lapid.  Although Bennett himself describes himself as a religious right wing observant Jew, he states that the most important thing is forming a proper government - even  if that means compromising with others.  There was talk that the party might join up with Yashar - and create one big party.  They still have until Wednesday to do that, but it is looking unlikely.  Apparently, they commissioned some huge polls and found that by combining, they might even lose  votes compared to their current numbers. The party released its election list today - and it is comprised of almost 50% women (perhaps the highest percentage of women candidates of any party) with a range of accomplished, highly qualified candidates.  Bennett has been travelling around the country meeting voters and discussing with them his party, its policy and positions.

Many voters he meets with are very upset with Bennett.  In the last round of elections, he promised in writing not to form a government with the Arab party Ra'am.  After the elections, he changed his position - at least in part because he saw that there was no other viable option to form a government and without a deal - there would be another election.

Over the past few weeks - the B'yachad numbers seem to be going up and are currently at 11 to 15.

The Far Right

Israel now has three ultra-right wing parties running.  These are religious Zionist parties - that seem to share the view that the only way to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is to annex all of the territory, expel all of the Palestinians (with payments or forcibly) and, eventually, rebuild the third Temple in Jerusalem (after destroying the Mosque of course..).

Otzma Yehudit

One party, Otzma Yehudit - Jewish power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at between 6 and 9 seats. Ben Gvir is an extreme populist - who has been serving as the Minister of National Security in the current Likud led government.  Ben-Gvir is a gentleman with a prison record for incitement, a history of being a disciple of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane and someone who the army would not take because he was too extreme.  Needless to say, he is responsible for allowing, explicitly or implicitly, the various attacks on Palestinian Arabs that have been taking place in Yehuda and Shomron.  

As you might have heard, U.S. Ambassador Huckabee, the most pro-Israel ambassador ever, recently describe these attacks as terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators to be arrested.  I doubt Ben Gvir was listening even though he is the head of national security.

Ben-Gvir recently added Tali Gottlieb to his party, who crossed over from the Likud party after failing to secure a high enough spot for herself in the recent Likud primaries. I could write a whole column about Gottlieb but let's just say she might even be more of an extremist than Ben Gvir.

Some commentators have indicate that Ben-Gvir and his party could get as many as 12-15 seats.  This would be quite frightening in my view.

Religious Zionist Party

This party is led by Bezalel Smotrich - who previously ran with Ben-Gvir.  He has been serving as Israel's Finance Minister - and has made all  kind of notorious statements and claims over the course of his term.  

Up until last week, he was polling at less than 3% and facing political wilderness.  He joined up with the Zehut (Identity) party led by Moshe Faglin and they are now polling at 5 to 6 seats.  It is still possible that this party will fail to make it over the finish line but that remains to be seen.

Your Nation Israel

The newest entry to the Israeli political circus is a new party called "Your Nation Israel" led by Ofer Vinter, a former Israeli General, without an extensive political background - but with extensive military experience.  One of the fascinating things is that Vinter signed up Arab Israeli Joseph Haddad as his number two candidate.  Haddad is an Arab Israeli who has served in the Israeli army and is well known for his active "hasbara" efforts on behalf of Israel.  Some Rabbis have complained publicly about Vinter having an Arab Israeli in such a high position in his party.  Others have flooded him with support.  This alone differentiates him from the other two ultra-right wing parties - though I note, for what it is worth, that Haddad is a Christian Arab and not a Muslim Arab. 

Netanyahu is pleading and begging with Vinter to join up with Smotrich's party or with Ben-Gvir to ensure that the votes are not wasted.  Vinter's party is currently polling at 5 to 6 seats but Netanyahu believes that either Vinter's party or Smotrich's party will fail to pass the threshold which would harm the Netanyahu bloc's chances.

In my view, it is within the realm of possibility that Vinter could actually join Eisenkot - if there were no other options. Vinter has denied that this could happen  - but we are talking about Israeli politics of course - everything is possible.

Overall, these three ultra-nationalist parties are polling at 15-20 seats combined - which is a huge number.  A government that might be made up of Likud plus these folks plus the ultra-religious parties - would create an enormous danger for the continued existence of Israel as a liberal democracy and could move the country even further along the path towards a religious state - like Türkiye or even worse.

The Democrats

This is the party led by Yair Golan that was formerly made up of the left-wing worker oriented Labour party (the party of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) and the far left party Meretz - which focused on equality, secularism and a political compromise with the Palestinians.  The Meretz party was devasted in the last elections with Meretz failing to make it past the threshold and the Labour party emerging as a shadow of its former self.  Led by Golan, the Democrats rebranded themselves, merged the two parties and are now polling at 8 to 11 seats.  

Golan was a senior military figure and he is tough as nails.  He is a reserve Major General.  When he first heard of the outbreak of the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023, he sprang into action  - even though he was a retired officer - and headed down to the Gaza area to join the fighting and try to save lives.

Golan is viewed by some on the right as fairly extreme. He is a supporter of full Arab participation in Israeli governments, a two-state solution and full equality for all people in the State of Israel.  He has been known to make some statements at times that have been viewed as extreme by many on the political right.

However, ultimately, he has impeccable  military credentials and is in favour of a strong, democratic, Jewish state, with equal rights for all citizens. He is the most likely of all the candidates to stick to his principles and refuse to make a deal with Netanyahu.  There is a also a good chance that he will achieve a higher number of seats than currently projected.

Yisrael Beitenu

The Yisrael Beitenu Party (Israel, Our Home), led by Avigdor Liberman is polling at between 7 and 10 seats.  This is also a fairly right wing party, heavily supported by Israeli Russian expatriates, but one that is dedicated to separating the state from much of the religious legal framework that now envelopes the State.  Liberman and his party favour full conscription for all military aged Israelis (including Arab citizens and the ultra-religious), full access to civil marriage for everyone (including the LGBT community) and a weakening of many different religious laws generally - including those that apply to Kashrut and Shabbat across the country. More than anything else, Liberman would like to see an Israeli government that does not include the large ultra-orthodox parties.  Liberman himself has extensive political experience and views himself as a possible Prime Minister as part of a coalition deal. He will almost certainly agree to form a government with Eisenkot and Bennett and is very unlikely to join a government led by Netanyahu. He will try to get the Prime Minister's role - even on a rotational basis.

The Ultra-Religious

There are two major ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).  I am not going to discuss them at length but I do have a few comments.

Shas

Shas is made up of primarily Sephardi ultra-orthodox supporters - and is led by convicted felon and fraudster Aryeh De'eri - who has been serving as a Minister in Netanyahu's current government. They are polling at 7 to 10 seats and are likely to be in the government only if Netanyahu can win again. Then again, if they are facing the political wilderness, they might make a deal with other parties for the right amount of money.  They would rather secure funding for their Yeshivas and other institutions than face four years of greatly reduced funding.  De'eri does know how to make all sorts of deals - which also include terms that are to his own personal benefit. For now, they are one of the parties that Netanyahu can really count on - if he has any chance to form a government.

UTJ

This is the ultra-orthodox, anti-Zionist, anti army party - supported by those who live in ultra-religious strongholds in Jerusalem, B'nei Brak and parts of Beit Shemesh.  They are also polling at 7 or 8 consistently (since their supporters vote for whomever their rabbis tell them to vote for).

They are strongly in the Netanyahu camp and very unlikely to support any other leader or party. Then again, for the right amount of money....

But don't worry, no other parties are about to offer them the money and deal it would take to leave Netanyahu.

RA'AM

One of the most interesting parties - this is an Arab Muslim party that was originally fundamentalist in outlook.  The Ra'am party leader Monsour Abbas decided that he would like his party to become involved in Israeli politics in a direct way.  This culminated in him joining the Bennett government - and Abbas becoming a Minister in that government.  

Many on Israel's right - oppose Abbas and  his party and claim that he has not been clear enough in denouncing Hamas.  They argue that the inclusion of Abbas in an Israeli government endangers Israel.

There is no suggestion that Abbas did anything, while serving  in the Bennett government, that warrants this criticism.

Most recently, Abbas announced that he  had come to agreement with a Jewish Zionist politician, former head of the Police services in Israel, Yoav Segalovitz, to join his party and run as number 2 on his list.  This is fascinating.  Perhaps the first time in Israel's history that a Jewish Zionist has joined an Arab Muslim led party - with a view to changing the country.

Some Arab Israelis oppose the inclusion of Segalovitz in the party - but they are being assured by Abbas that this is an appropriate move.  Some Jewish Israelis oppose the move by Segalovitz and question his loyalty.  Still others wonder if this is some sort of trick by Abbas to make his party more palatable as a coalition partner.  

I have heard Abbas many times on TV (he speaks fluent Hebrew of course and English) and, in my view, he seems like quite a decent guy - sincere, and committed to some kind of long-term solution for Muslims and Jews in Israel. Abbas is a trained Dentist with a degree from Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has also completed some of the work towards his Masters Degree in political science from the University of Haifa. He is a proud bearer of multiple identies. Arab. Palestinian. Muslim. Israeli. And he argues that these can all go together. 

Ra'am is running at 4 to 6 seats currently and would like to join the next government.  A Bibi-led coalition is unlikely to make a deal with Ra'am. Some of the opposition parties have said that they will not make an agreement with Ra'am either, but I think that we cannot rule out this possibility.

Other Arab Parties

There are three other Arab parties that run together as the combined "Joint List." Generally, these are anti-Zionist, communist, Muslim parties that are not interested or willing to join  a Zionist-led government - unlike the Ra'am party, which publicly accepts that Israel is a Jewish State. The Joint list is currently polling at 7 to 9 seats.  Party members can and will certainly vote on different bills - which could include bills to dissolve the Knesset.  But unless there is a tremendous sea change - including a change in some of their views - they are unlikely to play a role in any near term Israeli governing coalition.

There you have it - that is my wrap up of the current state of political affairs - as of three days before the lists close.  I will try to write again on Wednesday night or Thursday -once the list deadline passes but before Rosh Hashanah but that might be difficult given the timing.

Final Word on Israeli Politics

There is lots of time between now and October 27th, 2026. I think there are still three strong possibilities and we cannot rule any of them  out.  One  possibility is, essentially, a stalemate.  If no coalition can form a government of 61  - we may face additional rounds of election or we might see some sort of surprise compromise - with either some ultra-religious, some ultra-nationalist (Vinter?) or the Ra'am party helping to form a government.  The anti-Netanyahu coalition may wind up being the winners of a stalemate.

If Netanyahu and his current coalition members can get past 61 -  we can expect more of the same - and perhaps even harder right policies.  The various coalition members, who are all to the right of  Netanyahu or seem to be, are committed to attacking the current judicial system, enhancing executive power, continuing to move Israel towards a path towards annexation of Judea and Samaria, exempting the ultra-religious from the army and attacking equality in various ways and forms, procedurally and substantively, across the country. 

If the anti-Likud coalition can get past 61 seats and form a government, Israel could see quite a huge number of changes, especially on a wide range of domestic policy issues - and possibly in its approach to foreign policy issues as well.  I believe it would be a far less corrupt government - with policies that would ultimately be more representative of the country as a whole.

Other Notes

Israeli TV has spent a fair bit of time over the past few days speaking about the US-Canada trade dispute.

The tone from the Israeli press - I think - is trepidation.   Israeli reporters are wondering what it is that has made Trump so intent on attacking Canada - one of the U.S.'s closest long standing allies, with the largest shared border in the world.  If this is how Trump treats his "friends" - what is going to happen to us?

If Trump would rather spend his time getting the US to cosy up to Türkiye, Qatar, Russia and other very questionable regimes - while attacking and alienating long term allies of the US in Europe, Canada and  other places around the world - what does that mean for the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship? Especially since Bibi banked  completely on Trump and the Republicans and turned the U.S.-Israel relationship into a partisan issue in the US.

Of course, it is not that Israelis are feeling warm and fuzzy about Canada's current government.  The current Liberal government led by Prime Minister  Carney is probably the most anti-Israeli government in Canada's history. These policies have almost certainly played a role in the outbreak of anti-Semitic attacks across the country including attacks on synagogues, Jewish schools, Jewish owned stores and restaurants and, of course, universities, across Canada.

Toronto looks like it is on a path to re-electing an extremely anti-Israel, and probably anti-Semitic mayor, which is really frightening for a city with such a large Jewish population that used to feel safe in the City. 

But despite the situation in Canada, I think Israelis are really starting to wonder whether such a close relationship with Trump will wind up benefiting the country in the long run. Maybe they are even starting to wonder about the medium term.

Sports

Interestingly, Israeli TV networks do tend to show lots of NFL games, regular season and playoffs and lots of NHL playoff games.  But almost no baseball.  I think the average Israeli figures it is simply too boring - especially without having grown up with the sport.

I am admittedly somewhat of a bandwagon jumper myself, but I have been on the bandwagon for a while now - since the Blue Jays started to play reasonably well early last year.  It was a devastating game 7 World Series loss - and this season has not lived up to expectations.

But despite all of that, the Blue Jays have fought themselves back to 0.500 baseball and a tie for the last wild card spot.  So the remaining 19 games will be super  meaningful - and I will have to watch them by streaming them with a VPN - at some very inconvenient times.  

Today's Labour Day game is at a reasonably convenient time - so that helps.

Conclusion

We are gearing up for Rosh Hashanah, which, as you may know, starts on Friday night the 11th.

One of those years in which you will have to go to Shul on the second day if you want to hear the Shofar -  since the first day is Shabbat.

One of our family members will be in Toronto running  an auxiliary service.  Another will be in the U.S.  So it will be fairly quiet here for us for Rosh Hashanah.  For  Yom Kippur we will be leading tefillot here in Ra'anana - our kehillah seems to be in the range of 30  to 50 people - with a community break-fast at the end of the fast (after I blow the Shofar...). 

Wishing  everyone a meaningful, happy, healthy and successful New Year and hoping that I have time to update at least some of this political news later this week.  If you are not too interested in all of this domestic Israeli politics - sorry about that - but my blogs between now and late November (it may take 30 days for anyone to form a government in Israel after the elections) are likely to include lots of political news.

On the Edge of Another Major War with Iran? And Tisha B'Av 5786 (2026)

I am writing this on Friday afternoon, June 24, 2026.  According to many different indicators, there is a strong likelihood that Trump will make a decision to have U.S. forces launch a massive attack on Iran at any time.

Although no one knows for sure what will take place and Trump could be bluffing to try and get the Iranians to agree to some kind of deal - reports from the Israeli press have indicated that the Iranians have rejected any kind of deal proposed by the U.S. or the mediators at this point in time - and the gap between the U.S. and Iran is simply too wide to close.

In Israel, various news commentators have been speculating that an attack could come at any time, with many almost predicting that it will be tonight or tomorrow sometime.  

Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel if the U.S. crosses certain Iranian "red lines."  Just as it is unclear whether Trump will actually commence broad attacks against Iran, it is equally unclear whether Iran will decide to bring Israel into the conflict now.  However, if Iran does attack Israel, it is almost certain that Israel will respond with significant force.

Another possibility is that Trump will ask Israel to participate in some type of massive attack that he would like to carry out against Iran.  Israel would almost certainly say yes to any such request by Trump.  However, I think it is more likely that Trump would like to show that the U.S. can carry out these attacks on its own without Israel and will only involve Israel if Iran draws Israel into the conflict.

One report indicated that Israeli hospitals across the country have been told to be on their highest alert levels and to be prepared to move all operations underground on short notice. Some Israeli officials denied that this order was given.

I guess we will find out soon enough. We are scheduled to leave Israel on July 28th (completely unrelated to anything going on) for a few weeks.  I guess we will see soon enough if we are actually able to leave.  In short, we have had to prepare the "safe room" in our home and we are definitely facing the possibility of a stressful period of time.

Tisha B'Av 5786  תשפ"ו

We had a very meaningful Tisha B'Av.  We joined the Masorti Israel movement (affiliated with the Conservative Jewish movement) for a program along with more than 100 participants from across Israel.  We travelled from Ra'anana to Jerusalem and began the program with a tour of the tunnels behind the Kotel (the Western Wall).  The available tours are constantly changing as different sections open up and new finds are discovered or developed.

If you have never been to these tunnels, I would say that it is one of the most interesting things to do in Israel.  The tours give you access to a picture of how the two great Temples were when they were active in Jerusalem and the vibrancy of Jewish life at the time centred around these Temples.

The tours also provide a great deal of information about what happened to Jerusalem after the destruction of the second Temple in the year 70 CE.  There is even a full model of the Temple area that can be changed with the press of a button to show how it looked at different periods of time.  It helped that we had a terrific tour guide who was knowledgeable, energetic and engaging.  (No, it wasn't our family member, though I suppose it could have been...)

After the tunnel tours, we had tefillah (Minhah) and then a pre-fast dinner of "deconstructed Sabich" - which is basically hard boiled eggs, fried eggplant, salad, humus, tehina and "amba" (pickled mango sauce - slightly spicy). The deconstructed means that you can decide if you want to make it in a pita (the way it is usually served) or if you would rather go with the low carb option and skip the pita.  Sabich is sometimes called the "poor person's falafel" in Israel - since it is often about half the cost of a falafel and is a less substantial meal.

Our meal was followed by Maariv, the reading of Eichah (the book of Lamentations), and a lecture from Professor Doron Bar, author of a book about the history of the Western Wall. These events were interspersed with the group singing and reading some modern Kinot and  singing songs about Jerusalem, as the sun set and the stars emerged, overlooking the golden beauty of Jerusalem.  We were joined in time for the start of Eichah by several hundred Ramah seminar students, some of  whom read parts of Eichah.  Our evening concluded with three panelists discussing different visions of unity and challenges to modern day Israel.  Overall, it was a terrific program.

Tisha B'Av is a fast day in Israel (no food or water for about 24.5 hours).  At the same time, work and travel are permitted unlike other "Holy Days" - like Yom Kippur for example.  Everything is closed on Erev Tisha B'Av in most parts of Israel - but many shops, including many restaurants, actually open up on Tisha B'Av during the day.  

In any case, the fast ended at about 8:30 p.m. (I went with bagels, cream cheese and lox - one of our usual fast-break options).  And we are now ready for Shabbat Nachamu - the Shabbat that is intended to comfort us after Tisha B'Av.

Tehran

We are a bit late in getting to Season 3 of Tehran - we still had not finished watching Season 2 - but recently we had the chance to sit down and watch several episodes - even if that meant keeping really crazy hours.  We thought it was riveting. We still have one episode left - the final episode of season 3 - and we understand that a fourth season is being filmed.  

Tehran is a spy thriller about an Israeli agent, operating in Iran, working to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  At times, it seems somewhat unrealistic, I suppose, but considering what we have heard about Israeli operations, it is probably not too far off from reality.

For us, it was highly compelling and worth seeing. I would say that Season 3 was probably better than season 1 - and a close call with Season 2 as to which was better.  

Once we finish - we will have to start watching the newest season of Fauda (season 5 I think) - so don't spoil anything if you have watched these shows.

Election News

As you know the Israeli election is scheduled for October 27, 2026.

Party slates are still not absolutely finalized and there may still be some surprises.

The news this week was an attack ad that Netanyahu used.  The ad showed Gadi Eisenkot (leader of the Yashar party - right now Likud's strongest opposition) running towards a soldier in a uniform. The ad was generated by AI. At the last minute, the ad shows Eisenkot turning away from the soldier and embracing the Arab party (Ra'am) leader Monsour Abbas.  

One of the big criticisms was that Eisenkot had lost his son in the recent  Gaza war. Many viewers felt that the soldier depicted looked very much like Eisenkot's son and that this ad was therefore very inappropriate.

Likud did not apologize for or withdraw the ad.  However, they published a second version one day later, using a female soldier instead of a male soldier -  but with the same content.

Public reaction to the ad was apparently very swift and polls taken after the release of the ad, showed Netanyahu's party losing between 1 and 2 seats to Eisenkot (though that amount may be statistically insignificant).

In any case, still lots of time until the election, lots of ads to be released - and lots of animosity I suspect  - despite the message of Tisha B'Av that urges the people of Israel to find a way to avoid "baseless hatred."

I am sure that I will have lots more to say about the coming elections over the coming three month period.  

I wish everyone a shabbat shalom - and look forward to seeing many of you in Toronto or elsewhere in the coming weeks.

Government's Legislative Term Ends in Israel - Let the Cheering for Messi Begin!

Messi at the Kotel in 2013

The government of Israel officially concluded its last parliamentary session on Friday July 17, 2026 - and it can only be described as a debacle.  The governing coalition spent its last two weeks of legislative session pushing through, at lightning speed, several pieces of outrageous legislation - in an effort to shore up ultra-orthodox support for the coming election.

The first bill was the Bill to enshrine "Torah Study"  as a fundamental value in Israel's basic law.  Now of course, I have nothing against Torah Study, nor do most Israelis, many of whom engage in Torah study in all different ways.  But the goal here, was to define Torah Study as type of right - that allows a person to use it to reject other obligations or laws.  The Ultra-Orthodox in Israel plan to use the law, essentially - to say "we can't serve in the army because we are engaging in "Torah Study" and that is a supreme right of ours that trumps other obligations and duties. Of  course, it is also unclear what constitutes "Torah Study" and who might be able to use this - and for what purposes.  But this was the "easy" bill - the first one.

Next came the bill to suspend all sanctions against ultra-Orthodox draft evaders.  Not "all draft evaders" - just "Ultra Orthodox draft evaders" -  until November 30, 2026, one month  after the election, presumably giving Netanyahu and his coalition the time to win the election and enact a permanent draft evasion bill.  Based on an urgent injunction brought by Yesh Atid, the Supreme Court of Israel immediately froze this bill, as an interim measure, given that it was likely to be found unconstitutional in a full Supreme Court hearing.  The bill is simply indefensible other than as an effort by Netanyahu to buy the support of the ultra-religious parties  in the coming election.  

The third bill was the bill to weaken the powers of the office of the Attorney General, who is generally appointed to be an independent watchdog of the government.  The bill gives the government the legal authority to disregard the advice and recommendations of the AG.  Until now, these opinions had been treated as binding on the Executive Branch.  In other words, if the government obtains the opinion of the AG about a potential law - and the AG advises that it is likely to be illegal, Israeli law has normally required the government to follow that advice.  Under the current  legislation, the Government can  simply ignore the AG. It is noteworthy - that the sitting AG has made certain recommendations with respect to Netanyahu's current criminal charges.  With this bill, the government could potentially ignore those recommendations and cut a deal with Netanyahu to let him off the hook from his criminal charges.

The fourth bill was the bill to grant the government extensive additional control over the Israeli broadcasting industry - including certain content control.  The government would have the power to appoint the "oversight committee." This is a dangerous step towards state control over a large chunk of the media. The Supreme Court today (Sunday July 19, 2026) froze parts of this bill on an interim basis pending a full hearing.

The Israeli government also enacted a bill extending mandatory military service from 30 to 32 months for Israelis who report to duty under Israel's mandatory draft laws, even while making it easier for the ultra-orthodox to avoid the draft altogether.

The government also passed a bill strengthening the monopoly of the ultra-orthodox over Kashrut - which was intended to undo legislation enacted by the previous Bennett government.  This would affect organizations like Tzohar -  an Orthodox institution which has been trying to demonopolize Kashrut in Israel - even while continuing to adhere to all recognized standards of Kashrut. The difference is that the monopolization -  gives the  ultra-orthodox and their political parties - the right to appoint Mashgichim (Kashrut supervisors) and exert financial control over the Kashrut industry.  

On Friday, the government passed a bill allowing for gender segregated classes in Israel's state funded universities. This was their final bill - the "piece de resistance."  

Aside from these measures, the government also hurried through spending bills to be able to immediately transfer hundreds of millions of shekels - primarily to the  ultra-orthodox and to new developments in Judea and  Samaria (the disputed territories).  At the same time, the government sent a bill to assist wounded military veterans "to a committee for study" and turned down other measures proposed by opposition.

Certainly, the ultra-orthodox coalition partners are happy with these laws but I can't believe that even most Likud supporters are prepared to support this agenda.  In fact, the early polls are already suggesting that Likud is losing polling momentum as a result of passing these laws.  This legislative blitz may well wind up costing Netanyahu the election - if enough people are sufficiently upset about these laws.

Polls suggest that the opposition party led by Gadi Eisenkot - Yashar - has made significant inroads and may well be in a position to form a government.  Of course, there are still three months of campaigning remaining and these are only polling results.

The Israeli Supreme Court has already frozen some of this legislation on an interim basis and may well strike down more  of these enactments but the message has been sent by Netanyahu loud and clear - if he and his coalition partners are elected again, this country will begin to look more and more like Turkiye - or perhaps even Iran.  

Netanyahu and his coalition partners are also running against the Israeli Supreme Court.  In the past, Netanyahu campaigned on the promise that the Supreme Court was untouchable and he would always support and abide by its judgments as the ultimate arbiter of law in Israel.  Since his criminal trial began, he has switched tactics and has campaigned actively using the argument that Supreme Court has too much power, is part of the deep state, is too liberal etc.,  This government was the first in Israel's history to snub the chief justice of the Supreme Court and to state openly that it would refuse to abide by decisions of the Court.  If this coalition is able to form another government, the Israeli Supreme Court will face new and unprecedented challenges.

Israel is at a major crossroads.  After what can probably be described as one of the most, if not the most, extreme and anti-egalitarian weeks of legislation in Israel's 78 years history, it is clear that there is a great urgency for the anti-Bibi side  of the electorate to get out, mobilize votes and try to convince other Israelis that Israel would be better off as a democratic, more pro-egalitarian state.  Hopefully it is not too late.

Another four years of a government with this type of make up - including ultra-orthodox and right wing extremist politicians would have a disastrous effect on the country - and would almost certainly result in a significant exodus of educated and more liberal voters and perhaps many corporations.

Fortunately, from early polls - that are still three months away from the  election - the anti-government coalition bloc appears to be picking up steam.  If elected, it could have the ability to reverse much of the damage that has been done - and make changes that would benefit all segments of Israeli society.

War Drums

The war between the U.S. and Iran has really heated up over the past few days.  The U.S. has been ramping up its attacks and the Iranians have shown no sign of seeking any kind of deal (at least not publicly). It almost seems like the U.S. put the war on a low burner until the FIFA World Cup could end (it ends today) and then go full throttle to try and wring some concessions out of Iran.

Iran has responded by attacking a wide range of countries around it - including the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and others.  So far, Iran has not attacked Israel in this around, though the country is certainly on high alert.

Netanyahu seems poised and ready to have the Israeli army jump in and begin another round with Iran.  He has already floated the idea that because of the security situation, he may have to cancel the Likud Primaries (the Likud party uses a primary voting system to determine the ranking of its different candidates in the election.  Since Israel uses a proportionate representation system - parties get one set for approximately each .833 % of the vote (roughly 35-40,000 votes) though there is a minimum  of 3.5% - i.e. a 4 seat minimum).  The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026.

Netanyahu would rather skip these primaries and simply appoint Likud candidates in order which would give him greater control over the party.  He is concerned that some dissonant voices within his party will win high rankings in the primaries and he will have to work with a group of less pliable party members. But Netanyahu has claimed that this could be necessary - because of the security situation with Iran. I note that Netanyahu spent the last two weeks fighting over how many reserved prerogative seats he should be able to appoint in the top 40.  Initially, he was demanding the right to appoint 15 of the top 40 but eventually came to a deal with the party to be able to appoint 8 of the top 30 - with 6 of them in the first 20.  He has not yet announced who will be on his list.

Israelis are also concerned that if Netanyahu can successfully cancel the primaries - he may then move to finding a way to "postpone" the coming elections scheduled for October 27, 2026.  So far, he has not floated anything like that - and I think it is unlikely that he will even try it.  But the prospects of a full on war with Iran - and the security problems that will create for Israel - may well lead to Netanyahu exploring options.

Meanwhile, as the attacks from Iran get closer and closer to Israel (and Jordan, is after all, a neighbour of ours, and is being attacked by Iran), it is become increasingly likely that Israel will be directly involved in this round of war with Iran very soon.

Flying in and Out of Israel

As I have mentioned in just about every recent blog, it is extremely difficult to find decent flights in and out of Israel these days.  For our next flight, we will be flying to Toronto via Lisbon - with a stop on the way  in Athens.  

El Al is the most reliable way to leave Israel currently, but if you haven't booked a flight months in advance the prices are outrageous.

Air France, Aegean, Lot Polish, Emirates are among the foreign carriers flying currently, along with some smaller Israeli carriers like Arkia, Israir, Tus Airways and Blue Bird.  Many of the smaller airlines have baggage restrictions are like flying North American budget airlines. 

One of the issues now is that the U.S. government has asked Israel for permission to use a significant amount of Ben Gurion's capacity for refuelling planes and other aircraft.  Israel has tried offering the U.S. other military airports but the U.S. has been insistent on using Ben Gurion. This has been another reason for the lack of available commercial flights.

As for Air Canada - while it is scheduled to start flying again to Israel on October 25, 2026, this seems unlikely to me.  I certainly would not recommend booking an Air Canada flight between Toronto and  Israel any time soon.

Sports

Of course the only sport to write about on July 19, 2026 is football (soccer) - and the FIFA World  Cup.  In Israel - I think this is probably as big as the Super Bowl - Israelis are all talking about watching parties, bars and pubs are expected to be overflowing across the country and there is a palpable sense of excitement. Football is definitely the most popular spectator sport in Israel - basketball is a distant second.

The vast majority of Israelis (as far as I can tell anecdotally) seem to be cheering for Argentina to beat Spain. One reason is that Israel's relationship with Argentina is so much better than its relationship with Spain. Spain has become one of the world's loudest anti-Israel voices - joined by Ireland, Slovenia, the Netherlands and unfortunately, the current Canadian government. (As well, of course, as many of the Arab countries). By way of contrast, the current Argentinian government, led by President Javier Milei, has been a vocal supporter of Israel. That has not been lost on Israeli football fans.

The other reason - is that Israelis love watching Messi (who doesn't?) and are hoping he can, with a World Cup win, secure his place as the GOAT.  He needs two goals tonight to win the Golden Boot award for most goals in the tournament. That will not be easy against the strong Spanish defence - but even if he does not score any goals - it should be a fun game.

Tisha B'Av

I am planning to be at the Kotel this week on Wednesday night to mark the commemoration of the destruction of Israel's two great temples (the first in 586 bcc, the second in 70 cc). I think it might be the first time I will have been in Jerusalem on Erev Tisha B'Av.  When the kids were younger, we would generally go to Yad Vashem (the Holocaust Memorial Museum) during the day of Tisha B'Av.  We may wind up doing that this year as well.

Many observant Jews mark the nine days leading up to Tisha B'Av as a period of mourning in which they do not eat meat, though they do eat fish.  Generally, Sephardic Jewish and other Jews of eastern origins  - including Yemenite Jews do not observe this period as rigorously - particularly the food  restrictions. Since Israel has a mixture of Jews from countries all over the world, it is definitely less common here to see Kosher restaurants using a no-meat menu. Some restaurants will offer specials, including fish deals.

Even among Jews who do observe, many agree that it is still permissible, even desirable to eat meat on Shabbat.  For many people these days, who tend to minimize meat meals during the week, for health reasons and not religious ones - and eat meat only once or twice a week - the observance of the nine days leading up to Tisha B'av, with the Shabbat exception, may not even change their eating patterns.

Tisha B'Av, like other Jewish fast days, means about 24.5 hours of no food, water or anything else. This year the fast starts at 745 p.m. Wednesday night and ends at 8:17 p.m. on Thursday night. Unlike many other Jewish holydays, observant Jews can travel, do necessary work and use electricity.  But it is still a long day...even if you are fasting in an air conditioned place while it is in the mid-30s outside.

Weather

It is hot in Israel, for sure, and will only get hotter over the next two months.  But this year, it sounds like it has been even hotter in the U.S. and Canada -  with temperatures reportedly reaching 41c in Toronto last week.   I can't remember when Israelis were last told to "stay in the house and not go outside" (other than during a war or an epidemic) but that was apparently the case last week in Toronto.  Here we were able to go for a walk along the beach, near sundown when it had cooled down somewhat. The humidity was a lot lower than the humidity levels during Toronto summers. I guess I will be able to compare shortly.

We take it for granted being only 10-15 minutes' drive from the beach though we really don't wind up going that often.  My office in Toronto is right near an outdoor skating facility - and every year - I say that I will skate more often at lunch - but somehow it just doesn't seem to happen.  Perhaps its the same thing with the beach here.

Wishing everyone peaceful times - and if you are fasting this week - a meaningful fast.