Israeli Political Update, Sports News and Some other Comments - November 2022

Israeli Soccer fans in Israel

We are two-thirds of the way  into November, 2022, 19 days after the most recent Israeli election.   In  this blog, I am covering a few topics.   First some comments about Israeli politics and the ongoing coalition talks.  Next some sports news with a bit of an Israeli angle.  Then a comment on my most recent  flight to Israel from  Toronto.  And finally, a few comments on a movie I watched on the plane and other  Israeli programming.

Israeli Political Update

Israeli coalition talks continue and Israel still does not have a government in place.  Some had expected that these talks would be very quick and that a coalition would  be  formed well  within  the  28 day mandate that has been given to Netanyahu.  But as others probably expected, things aren't that simple.

As you may know from reading the news (or my other blogs), Netanyahu is trying to form a coalition government with three  parties, who will join his own Likud party as part of the government.  Two of the parties are ultra-religious ("Haredi") parties and the third party is a far right wing nationalist-religious party.

For all of the parties concerned here, there are no other real options.  The two ultra-religious parties were left out of the previous government.  This meant a reduction in budget allocations for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious institutions.   They are determined to be part of this government, no matter what to make up what they lost.  They also know that, for the most part, the other parties in the  Knesset do not want to give in to their  demands.  So they must make a deal with Netanyahu.

Likewise, the far right party, the Religious  Zionist party - also knows that it will not be part of any government  other than one with this current configuration.  Of course, the RZ party could  increase its seat total in future elections.  In fact, Ben-Gvir sees  himself, it seems, as a future Prime Minister.  But for now, they need the Likud and the ultra-religious parties to form their "dream governnment," a "completely right-wing government" as they referred to it during the election campaign.

At the  same time, Netanyahu needs all three of these parties (and only these parties) to form a government.  They are the only parties that will pass laws to help him end  his criminal proceedings.  He ran on a platform to govern with these parties.  And the ultra-religious parties  have been very loyal to him.  So all in all, I expect that these four parties will succeed in forming a government shortly.  Like any  good negotiators, they may all push the matter until the very last minute, just before the deadline, or even the extended deadline.  But they will eventually reach a deal.  They have no other choice.

The ultra-religious parties have made a wide range of demands.  First on the list is an "override law" that allows the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court of  Israel.   This is somewhat like the "Notwithstanding  Clause" in the Canadian Charter.  It has served as a basis for attacks from a few different satire programs - including Eretz Nehedert ("A wonderful country") which ran a skit with impersonators of the different political leaders sitting around thinking up  bills that they could  pass with the power to override the Supreme Court.  The skit ended with "Bibi" wondering if he could change the electoral system to give himself a 10 year mandate instead of 4....

Other ultra-religious demands have included a steep hike in the monthly stipend paid to yeshiva students, a law that permits public gender segregation of certain events, an immediate repeal of the taxes on super  sweet beverages (cola etc.,) and on disposable products and a wide range of other changes.  The ultra-religious Shas party has also demanded that the law be changed to remove "public breach of trust" from the  criminal code and to overturn the  current  Israeli law that says that a convict cannot serve as a minister in the government if he or  she was convicted of  certain types of offences.  The leader of Shas, Aryeh Deri, has been convicted  twice (the second time in 2021) of financial improprieties.  He wants  to have the law changed so that  he can serve as the country's  Finance  Minister.  (You can't make this stuff up - but it sounds about  as absurd as things get....).   I suppose it is like putting some Arab or other Mideastern countries, like  Syria or Iran, in charge of the UN Human Rights committees....

Overall, it sounds like Bibi and his Likud party are more or less willling to go along with most of these requests  from the  ultra-religious.

The Religious Zionist party is giving  Bibi  more  difficulties so far.    RZ is comprised of three parties that run under  one umbrella.  One group, led by Ben-Gvir, "Jewish Power" is anxious to come to a quick deal.  They have met  with Bibi  and, apparently, agreed on a range of items, including the  legalization of certain settlements  that were previously classified as "illegal"by Israel.  Ben-Gvir  is pencilled  in to  be the Minister of the Interior - which includes  having charge over Israel's police forces.   As you may know, Ben-Gvir has been charged and  convicted in the past on incitement charges  (of violence  against Arabs  and  of threatening violence against gays and  leftists...).  So  this is not a particularly palatable posting for some of us but Bibi will agree to it.

The other two leaders of RZ - Bezalel Smotrich and Avi Moaz are apparently demanding  concessions above their political weight.   Smotrich would like to be  given  the Finance Ministry or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  So far, Bibi is  refusing these demands (preferring to put Deri in the Finance  Ministry and his own buddy, Ron Dermer, who wasn't even  elected, into the role of  Minister of Foreign Affairs).  Here  for the first time, Netanyahu is running into protests from some of his own  party members, since they feel  he is giving  away too many of the important roles and not rewarding  his own stalwart party members.  This rumbling might become louder  since the Likud loyalists who are  left are the ones who have stuck with Bibi through thick and thin - generally less qualified and  more extreme than other former Likudniks  who left Bibi when they felt  supporting him was no longer  viable.  They would now like to reap their rewards for having remained.

I guess they will all continue to negotiate until someone  blinks.  Sooner or later someone  will,  since they all realize that  they have  no other choice. As expected, this is shaping up to be a  very right wing  government, which will  overturn a  wide range  of legislation, weaken  the power of the Israeli Supreme Court, tilt laws towards religion in the sphere of secular-religious balance, set back gender equality progress and generally make things very uncomfortable for  Arabs, especially those  living  in the disputed territories.

We will see what  deal emerges and  I will write more  about this in the  coming  weeks.

Sport News

The big  sport  news, of course, is the opening of the  World Cup of Football in Qatar.  There is an Israeli angle here, even though the Israeli side did  not make it into this World Cup tournament.  In fact, Israel has only played in one World Cup.  Perhaps that will change one day (and perhaps the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup...).

Israel does not have dipolomatic relations with Qatar.  However, Qatar agreed to allow Israelis to fly to Qatar and come watch the games. In fact, just yesterday it  was announced that Tus Airlines, which is 48% Israeli owned, will now run direct flights to Doha, Qatar for the World Cup.   This three-hour flight will set you back $666 USD though you can only get on the flight  if you can show proof of having a ticket to a World  Cup game.  Thousands of Israelis have apparently made plans to go  or are already there.  I watched a few being  interviewed just before the game  and they were  certainly very excited about being there.  None of them seemed to be concerned about any security issues.

Qatar has apparently agreed to allow cold  Kosher  food to be sold - but nothing warm and no meat, even though it had apparently promised to be  more hospitable earlier.   It has also stated that Jewish people will be prohibited  from praying in groups.  I would imagine that many of the soccer fans  going are  not  too concerned about these issues, but for observant Israeli soccer fans, this trip  might be somewhat uncomfortable.  Hopefully, there won't be any issues.  This is quite a contrast with what is going on in Dubai - where the UAE has opened up synagogues, brought in Kosher caterers and made extensive efforts to make Israelis feel at home since the signing  of the Abraham Accords.  Qatar is simply not there yet.

Soccer is the most  watched sport here in Israel.   On TV they are wishing everyone a "Happy World  Cup  Holiday."  One of the main channels, Channel 11, is interrupting much of its regular programming to show the games and there will probably be quite a number of people calling in sick or "working from  home"  over the next month. Sure this is also the case in many countries  around the world, even other countries that aren't actually participating in the tournament, like Israel.

As a Canadian, I am cheering  for Canada to do well.   Canada will face Belgium, Croatia and  Morocco in the first round.   The odds of Canada winning the World Cup are apparently 12,500 to 1 (though some sites are offering as much as 25,000 to 1 supposedly).  The odds of Canada emerging as one of the top two  teams from its group of four are apparently set at 215 to 1.  So if you think that Canada is about to be the big surprise of the tournament, there is lots of money to be made.  I imagine that quite a large number of Canadians will watch the Canadian side play - even if that means missing some work.  But the numbers probably won't  be as high  as the numbers who watch Team Canada Olympic Ice Hockey games.

Meanwhile,  I am not really sure if you could say Israelis are unified in cheering for a particular  team - though certainly Brazil, Argentina, and  France are all big  fan favourites.  I'm not normally a big watcher of soccer  but I have always enjoyed watching the World Cup  and I'm sure  I will watch my  share  of games, even though I won't be going to Qatar.  For now, I am clearly cheering for Canada.  If they exit the tournament quickly, as expected, I will have to find a different horse to cheer for.   Maybe  another underdog team.

Flight News

As you might know, El Al has "suspended" its Canadian service.   So there are no longer direct flights from Toronto to Tel-Aviv, which leaves Air Canada  as the only option.  In general, I have been flying  Air  Canada over the years.  Air  Canada offers a far superior  mileage  program, better deals with other partner  airlines,  lounge access  all over the world, and  a much greater  level of predictability, order, ease of boarding and baggage  allowance.  The in-flight service is also much better.

But with the decision by El Al to stop servicing Canada, Air Canada took the liberty of raising its prices - immediately and  drastically.  So whereas November is normally a "low season" to fly with very reasonable prices, it was much more expensive  now and the  flight was completely packed.  Clearly many of the people  were passengers who have  normally been flying El Al - which changed the feel of the flight as well.

Hopefully some other airline or  airlines will step forward and  offer some  competition on this route.  Otherwise, it looks like direct travel  between Toronto and Tel-Aviv (as well as Montreal and Tel-Aviv) is going to continue to get much more expensive.   

Movies and Shows 

On the flight from Toronto  to Tel-Aviv, I watched the movie "One of Us" which is a  documentary based on the lives of a few former Hassidic Jews in Brooklyn  who were able to "escape" and  are trying to rebuild  their  lives, some  with more success than others.  Certainly  the movie sheds light on some really horrible  situations and addresses a range of different issues,  including custody fights in the ultra-orthodox community in New  York courts, the cover-up of sexual abuse  in the  Haredi community, the limited  secular  education that community members receive and some other  issues.  It was  not a particularly balanced movie though it highlighted the work of Footsteps  a New York organization that assists those who have  chosen  to leave the ultra-religious community.  

Although there were interviews with some Hassidic rabbis and some attempts to discuss these  issues with community members, I felt that, overall, it was somewhat more of an attack on the community than a  balanced documentary.

That  being  said, there are similar organizations similar to Footsteps and  many similar stories in Israel.  It is a genuine  concern that this insular community  - in the U.S., Israel, and around the world, is not  providing its members with the proper  tools  to function and  make a living  and that creates ongoing, cyclical poverty.   Ultra-orthodox Jews are among the poorest Israelis.  Perhaps some of this is self-imposed, since  many of the men would  rather spend their lives  studying  in a Yeshiva instead of earning an  income.  In Israel, they don't serve in the army, they marry at a young age,  have  a large number of children,  and generally, have few skills that are marketable in the general workforce.

So although the movie itself was one-sided, the issues it raises are very serious  and are likely to be exacerbated by the Israeli  government in waiting that is rapidly taking shape - since the new government will be beholden  to  interests  that want  to promote and fund this way of life.

I should  also mention that after  I got back to Israel, I finished watching the  fourth  season of Fauda, centred on an  Israeli under cover unit that  fights terrorist cells in the disputed territories  and in other places.  I thought the fourth season was probaby the best.  Intense, riveting and more realistic than some  of the previous seasons.  I won't  give anything away - but it is really  quite a dramatic show.

The weather  has been beautiful here - 28 C during the day and sunny though we  have some days of rain forecast for later in the week.  We are looking forward to seeing a number of different guests, including family members and friends, here in December and then  in the spring and  fall  as well.   I don't celebrate American Thanksgiving myself - other than to  do my part by watching some of the NFL games that day - but I have attended a few Thanksgiving dinners  in Israel with some American friends.  Nothing  planned this year (since at least one of my American observing friends will be away) - but for all those celebrating - I wish you a wonderful Thanksgiving!  

As it turns out, there is a chance that we will finally have our  whole  crew together for  dinner on Thursday  night - so maybe I need to consider making  some turkey....We could combine that  with some World Cup viewing and some  quality Israeli wine.  I guess we have a few days  to decide.

Big Win for Netanyahu in Israeli Elections 2022 - Apparently

We are still waiting for the actual final results in the 2022 Israeli elections.  But at this point, it appears that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won a resounding victory and will be able to form a government with somewhere between 62 and 64 seats in the Knesset of 120 seats.

According to exit polls as well as the real time results that are still pouring in, Netanyahu's Likud party has captured approximately 30 seats or 25% of the eligible vote.  The  number of seats for the Likud is not at an all-time high - but it is the results of  Netanyahu's intended coalition partners that will put him in the driver's seat.

The election appears to have been a major victory for the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.  This is a far-right party that includes members who were Kahane party members in the past.  At the press conference that Ben-Gvir held earlier this evening, members were chanting "death to terrorists," referring to one of Ben-Gvir's demands that Israel institute capital punishment for terrrorists.  I was listening - and could have sworn I heard the crowd chanting "death to the Arabs" but I will give the crowd the benefit of the doubt and go with the reported chant.  The RZ party seems to be headed for 14-16 seats, a huge number for a party that has never come close to these numbers.   And a frightening number for those who prefer governments without fascist parties.

Another of Netanyahu's partners is the Shas party, the ultra-religious Sephardi party, which is being reported as winning 10 seats.  Shas has been running at 7-8  seats over the past few elections  so this is a reasonably significant improvement for them.  The other ultra-religious party - "United Torah Judaism" is being reported as winning 8 seats.

If we add up these numbers, we arrive at between 61 and 63 seats for Netanyahu and his bloc.  

Netanyahu will not have an easy time responding to the various demands for cabinet posts, huge budgets and and laundry lists  of action items from these three extreme parties.  He will also need to satisfy his own Likud members by showering them with cabinet posts.  I expect that there will be a huge cabinet - with close to 30 members if not more.

Yair Lapid's party, to this point, is registering 23 seats, which is a disappointing result for a party that was hoping to lead the government.  Some people  had expected that Yesh Atid could get up to 27-28 seats, which would have provided the party with a real opportunity to form a government.  If Yesh Atid winds up on the opposition benches for the next four years,  it will need to consider holding party primaries and acting more like a political party than a one-person show.

Benjamin Gantz's party, the National Camp, is running at about 10 seats, which is very low for a party that ran with the slogans "Only  Gantz can do it" and "After Him" (or "Follow Him").   This party is certainly disappointed with their apparent showing.

If the curent results hold up, the other "bloc" members that had worked with Yesh Atid including Labour (5), Meretz (4), and Ra'am (5) will come in at close to the predicted numbers from advance polls.  Lieberman's party is currently running at 5 seats, which is a bit lower than expected.

But overall, no matter how you slice these numbers, Lapid's best case  scenario so far is 52-53 seats.  There just does not seem to be a path to 61, even if some of the results change.

The voting turnout for this election, the fifth election in about three and a half years, was just over 80% of eligible votes, which is quite high for a western democracy these days and Israel's highest turnout since 1999.

One of the big reasons for the current state of affairs is the results among the Israeli Arab population.  In the past several elections, there were three Arab parties running together - Hadash, Ta'al and Bal'ad  These are generally anti-Zionist parties - who have in the past reached numbers as high as 15-16 seats.  Leading up to this election, Hadash and Ta'al began to discuss the possibility of cooperating with a Zionist government.  The most extreme party of the three - Bal'ad - broke off from the coaltion as the prospect of cooperating in any way with a Zionist government was unacceptable.  

Following that break-up - the Hadash-Ta'al coalition of two Arab parties is in line to obtain 5 seats.  But Bal'ad is apparently likely to finish below the required cut-off perentage of 3.25%, which would leave the party outside of the Knesset.  This means that the total Arab representation in the Knesset would only be 5 seats from Hadash-Ta'al and 5 seats from Ra'am.  Ra'am is a party that entered into a coalition agreement in the most recent government.  Hadash-Ta'al and Bal'ad are both groups that generally have no interest in cooperating with a sitting Israeli Zionist government.

According to some reports, Bal'ad is polling at more than 3.1%.  If it gets to 3.25%, it would suddenly pick up 4 seats - and 2 of those seats reportedly could come from the right wing bloc.  In other words, there is a still a chance between now and the end of the week that Bibi's bloc could  be reduced to 60 seats, which would mean a stalemate.   However, the way things are trending at this point, that does not seem likely.

Assuming that these results hold up, this will be the furthest right-wing government that Israel has ever had.  The Shas party has been a government partner several times.  They will insist on increased funding for yeshivas, prefential housing arrangements for yeshiva students  and their families, an end to any discussion of mandatory enlistment to the army for ultra-religious men, and an end to any discussed requirements of forcing the ultra-religious to study secular subjects in their schools and institutions.  They will also ask for huge budgets for their party and their constituency - all  to be overseen by  their leader Aryah Deri, a convicted fraudster.  He previously spent years in prison for bribery and corruption while serving as the Minister of the Interior.  But he made a comeback years later, was re-elected as leader of the Shas party and now has 10 seats or more.

The United Torah Judaism party will make similar demands to those of Shas - though for their constituency.  They  will seek greater power for the rabbinate and will launch ongoing attacks on gender equality as they have in the past.  They strongly oppose LGBTQ rights, gender equality, science (generally) and secular law.  Having sat in the opposition for the past year and half, they are hungry to make up for the lost time and will present Netanyahu with quite a large list of demands.

The largest coalition partner for Netanyahu, the RZ party, has never played  such an active role in the government.  The RZ party has proposed  removing the  offences of corruption and public breach of trust from the criminal code, which would  effectively end Netanyahu's trial.  They seek to appoint a majority  of right wing judges to the courts, to "untie the hands" of soldiers and  police in dealing with Palestinian  and Arab violence and they aim to expend the settlements, provide greater protection for settlers in Judea and Samaria (the "west bank") and take a much harder line towards the Palestinians and Palestinian terrorism and attacks.  Some of the demands of the RZ may conflict with the two ultra-religious parties  since the RZ members do believe in studying secular subjects, they work, serve in the army and pay taxes (unlike many of the ultra-Orthodox).  They have called for the institution of  capital punishment for terrorists, the expulsion of "non-loyal" Palestinians from the country and a range of other far-right policies.

Netanyahu is certainly aware that Israel would face a major international backlash if it were to  implement some  of these policies.  At the same time, he has promised to support these parties as part of his election campaign.  In his speech tonight, he called for the restoration of  "Israeli pride" and claimed that Israel needs to show the world that it is strong and not weak.  Perhaps his partners will insist, for example, on a military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.

If Netanyahu were to implement much or all of this agenda, as demanded by his three coalition partners, the country would start to look like Turkey or even Iran.  Netanyahu is not necessarily interested in going that far and some of his fellow Likud members are also likely to resist some of this agenda.  But it is a rather motley group.  Israelis in the centre  and on the left are not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking about what lies ahead.

If the results hold up and Netanyahu can enter coalition agreements with these three partners, he is likely to have a reasonably stable government for the next 3-4 years, even if it is one that generates lots of negative publicity and makes some very unpopular decisions.  I hope that saner heads will prevail and  that the government will act in a reasonably measured fashion.  if it does not, we may see a tech "brain drain" and enormous damage to the Israeli economy and world image.  

Some are still hoping that, somehow, overnight, the numbers will magically change.  As the  evening progresses, this seems to be less and less likely.  It is far more likely that in the coming weeks, we will see the reinstallation of Prime Minister Netanyahu - a reincarnation that seems likely to  seek vindication, vengance and most importantly, historical rehabilitation.  

I wish Medinat Yisrael (the State of Israel) and Am Yisrael (the people of Israel) the best of luck.

October 2022 - Day Before Yom Kippur

It is the day before Yom Kippur - the holiest day of the Jewish Calendar.  Okay there is an argument about that - it may well be that Shabbat - every Saturday - is actually considered the holiest day - but let's put that aside for a bit.  If you have never been to Israel on Yom  Kippur - it is really an amazing experience.  All traffic ceases to a halt - other than an handful of emergency and security vehicles.  Even secular Israelis refrain from using their cars.  There is no "law" that bans cars - but I guess the collective society has decided that everyone is willing to agree to make the day special.

Non observant Israelis have turned Yom Kippur into a national biking holiday.  People who are not going to synagogue - get on their bikes - by themselves or with friends and family.  Some take cross country routes - using highways that are normally filled with cars but are now filled only with bicycles.  Some use the opportunity to teach their children to ride bikes - since there are so many "safe" places to do that on this day.  Others use skateboards, roller blades or even electric bikes - and some just walk or jog.

So far, we have stayed on the sidelines from this alternate Yom Kippur celebration - since we tend to observe the day in more traditional fashion.  It would actually be quite amazing to be able to do both - have one day a year with no cars just for biking and walking - without that day falling on Yom  Kippur.  But I guess life is always filled with choices.

Instead, as you might  know, we join our friends and Synagogue community in running Yom Kippur prayer services - tefillot.  For the past 10-15 years, we have been running a satellite service  in Ra'anana - since our main synagogue is in K'far Saba - about 7 km away.   We either hold it in an available synagogue in Ra'anana (some synagogues rent out gyms or halls for Yom Kippur since there are too many people for their synagogue) or we use someone's house or backyard.  We have hosted once but fortunately we have found another venue at a lucky friend's house.  I have been conducting the Neilah service for somewhere in the range of 10 years.  That is the last service of Yom Kippur which runs for about the last hour and half of the fast (no food no water for 26 hours) - and everyone  is standing for most of it - while I get to sing prayers  for most of that time....hopefully with everyone  joining in.

About three or four years ago, we added the Kol Nidrei service - before that - everyone in our group was attending at other synagogues or walking to our shul in K'far Saba.  I agreed to take that on - so that is another 2 hours or so of singing at the start of the fast.  On top of that, we have a full service in the morning - though we abbreviate it a bit.  Lots  of work to do there to  share the Torah reading etc.,  All in all, it is quite a bit of preparation, quite an investment  of  time - but quite rewarding.  Hopefully it is spiritually rewarding for those attending.  

So really - I should probably be preparing  some more now - "cramming" rather  than taking the time to write  this blog.  Or cooking for the pre-fast meal....Or cooking for the break-fast meal....or  resting.  Well.  Much of the cooking is done.  And I think I'm fairly ready since I have done this  more than a few times.  But it always helps to review.

As I am writing - tens of thousands of people are at the Kotel in Jerusalem, attending at the annual last minute selichot ("forgiveness") prayers.  People come from all over the country to sing  and pray late into the night.  Since driving  is permitted  - people are able to attend selichot from anywhere in the country whereas during Yom Kippur itself, people can only get to the Kotel if they can walk there.  Or bike, I suppose....

There are some  people who manage the blend the  two.  Perhaps they bike all day on Yom Kippur and then find  some Neilah service to attend where  they can hear the final shofar blown marking the end of Yom  Kippur.  Even at our small service, we probably wind up with double the normal number right near the end.   We were once at a synagogue in Mazkeret  Batya (a small town near Rehovot) for the Neilah service.  As the end  of Yom Kippur drew near, the synagogue filled up so completely it was standing  room only.  In fact, people were looking in to the synagogue from windows surrounding the building and at the door entrance.  It was like everyone  in the town showed up - secular and religious  for the last 15-20 minutes of Yom Kippur.  All waiting for the sound  of final shofar note.

Election Update

As you might also know, Israel's next election is only one month away.  It will be held on November 2, 2022.  This blog would be too long if I reviewed all of the political parties and their chances so I will do that in another blog - closer to the  actual election.  But I do have a few short comments.

First of all, there is a reasonable chance that this 2022 election will end  up in a stalemate.  Former  Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party are polling at anywhere from 30-35 seats.  No Israeli party ever manages to get a majority government by itself - with 61 seats required to form a government in the 120 seat Knesset.  Netanyahu is counting on the support of two ultra-religious parties - Shas (Ultra-religious Sephardic party) and Yehadut HaTorah (Torah Judaism) - which are likely to get about 14 seats combined.  He is also counting  on support from an ultra-right party - the Religious Zionist  party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar  Ben Gvir.  These are some pretty scary folks - who would like to turn Israel into a state run according to Jewish religious law - and  have little appreciation for democracy.   But for some reason, they are polling at somewhere in the range of 10-13 seats, which is shockingly high.  So  if you add all of that up - there is a scenario where these four parties  could combine and get past  61 and form a government.   It would be Israel's most right wing government ever, heavily weighted with religious extremists.   It would also be a government that  would be likely to help Netanyahu get out  of his legal troubles even though he is in the middle of a criminal trial.

The Israeli Knesset

The possibilities for the current  Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, look somewhat more  daunting.  His party has been polling at somewhere between 22 and 26  seats.  He needs a whole constellation of parties to join him, from across the political spectrum, to get to 61.  Some of those parties are flirting with crossing the election threshold - set at 4% of the total votes.  Assuming  that they all pass through - Lapid could  count  on support from Labour (left wing  workers' party,  historically), Meretz  (left wing  secularists), Yisraeli Beytenu (Right wing  nationalist/Russian immigrants party) that might all add up to Between 38 and 42.  There is another centrist  party running, led by Benny Gantz - who swears up and down that he won't  join Netanyahu (though  he did once  before).  They are polling at 10 to 12 seats, though they want to try and get Gantz into  the Prime Minister's seat.  If they join  Lapid, that could get them to between 48 and 54.  If they  cut a deal with the Ra'am (Arab/Muslim fundamentalist party) again, they could get up to between 52 and 58.  Still three short.  

So unless the numbers change dramatically between now and November 2, 2022, Israel is likely to wind up with either a stalemate and another election or a right wing government, led by Bibi.   That being said - a month is a long time.  Numbers could change quite a bit.  Buckle up.  It should be interesting.

Sports News

The Israel under 21 soccer team has qualified for the European Championships - which is very exciting for Israelis since soccer is the most popular sport  here.  Unfortunately, the senior  team  didn't  qualify for the World Cup, which starts in November in Qatar.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to qualify.   Instead of having  to play teams from its region, the Middle  East, Israel is stuck in the European division, which makes it much harder to qualify.  This is due to Israel's lack of peaceful relations with many of the surrounding  countries - or to put it another way - the refusal of those countries to recognize Israel's right to exist.   Maybe  the day is getting  closer when Israel will have to play Egypt, Jordan,  Saudi Arabia, Iran  and  Iraq to qualify.  But for now, we still have to get past France, Portugal, Germany and  others, which is much more  difficult.  

Meanwhile, with my relative lack of interest in watching soccer, I have preferred to jump on the bandwagon and  watch our home  town Blue Jays - having one of their best seasons ever.  Playoffs start this week - which means watching games that start at 2 a.m. here in Israel.  I'm hoping to be back in Toronto for some really meaningful Blue  Jay playoff games.

I'm also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills - the closest thing Toronto has to an NFL home town team.  I have been to many games in Buffalo.  While they have had some fantastic seasons, inlcuding four losing  Super Bowl appearances in a row - the 2022-23 edition of the Bills may be their best team ever.  That also means watching at some crazy hours when  I'm in Israel - though if they play a 1 p.m. game - that is a very manageable  8 p.m. start here  in Israel.

I am going to wrap this up for now and  wish everyone who is observing a Gmar Hatima Tova - may you have a meaningful fast - and be inscribed in the good books of life  and everything positive for the coming New Year.  I hope to write  some  more soon - likely with a bit more political analysis.