I have written blogs about the Israeli system, the parties and the way things work before past elections but I thought I should review some of that again - since it can be very confusing.
1. The Basics
As you may know, the Israeli electoral system is a parliamentary democracy - much like Canada or the UK or some other European countries. Unlike Canada, the U.S. and the UK, there are no "districts." The election is based solely on popular vote - one person one vote - and the Knesset seats are distributed in proportion to the voting percentages.
There are 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament - the "Knesset" - so each 1% of the national vote -would mean 1.2 seats in the Knesset.
Israel has a minimum threshold, which is currently set at 3.25%. This means that if a party runs and gets less than 3.25% of the popular vote - the votes are redistributed among the other parties - in proportion to the other results. If a party gets just over the 3.25%, they automatically get 4 seats in the Knesset, the minimum number.
In order to form a government, you need to either win 61 seats in a general election (which has never happened in Israel's history) or you need to cobble together a coalition of parties that adds up to 61 seats. Unlike Canada or the UK, you cannot really run the government with a "minority" government. Since the government must secure the confidence of the Knesset to put its cabinet in place, pass legislation, appoint Ministers etc., groups must be able to show an agreement with at least 61 seats in a coalition bloc.
A government or a governing coalition can stay in power for up to 4 years - or until the government collapses - whichever comes first. Many governments collapse before the full 4-year term - since it is often difficult to hold a wide range of parties and their interests together for a lengthy period of time.
The current Israeli government, which is the 25th Knesset but apparently the 37th government in Israel's 76 year history has a coalition made up of 67 or 68 MKs (there is one MK who votes with the government but is not necessarily still part of it at this point). The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has 32 of those seats. The current coalition is made up of two ultra-religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) and two "far-right" parties - Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) (Ben-Gvir) and the Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich).
This current governing coalition managed to stay in power for its full terms and the elections are taking place because the four year time period will have passed.
2. A few more Basics - Okay - Advanced Basics
Since Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, it is very easy to put together a party and start running. It is not as easy to get into the Knesset since you need 3.25% of the national vote to get in. But that does not deter many people from running. There are apparently about 37 registered parties this time around but realistically - there are between 11 and 13 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset. There are another 4 parties or so - that think they can make it in but do not seem to be getting those results in any published polls.
You must vote in person in Israel - on the day of the elections. So you must be physically in the country and, of course, be an Israeli citizen, if you would like to vote. Only posted overseas diplomats and military personnel can vote by advance or absentee ballot.
Israel uses its own unique ballot system. Once your identity is properly verified (by an independent panel representing different parties) - you go into the polling booth and pick out a small piece of paper that has the initials of the party that you would like to vote for printed on it. In other words, there is a big box with compartments in each voting booth filled with different slips, organized by party. You put one of them in the envelope, seal it and deposit it into the ballot box.
It takes a very long time to get the results! Unlike Canada or the U.S., the Israeli polling stations do not release results on an ongoing basis. Apparently, the ballots are counted and then forwarded on to another station. The results are not released "in real time" that evening.
Instead, different media outfits - stand outside polling stations and ask people how they voted (answering is strictly voluntary and is recorded secretly). The media outlets then report these results - even though they are certainly not official or anywhere close to it - and are sometimes wildly off from the actual results.
So election night in Israel is not nearly as riveting (in the same way) as an election in the U.S. or Canada can be with the live results pouring in by the minute. In Israel, you may not know the actual results until the next morning or even late the next day - though the "polls" are sometimes decisive enough to be reasonably accurate.
That's not to say that Israeli election results are predictable - they are certainly not - (in many cases). And the results can differ quite a bit from what the pre-election polls were suggesting. But getting the actual results takes much longer. Even hard core political junkies may not be able to watch for 20 hours straight until the results are more or less clear.
There are a few other interesting rules - like "surplus voting arrangements" whereby a party can make a deal with one other party to share any "surplus votes" rather than have them go back into the pool. This only works for parties that have passed the minimum threshold. But I don't think I really need to get into a discussion of that for now.
3. The Parties
I am going to look at the governing coalition first - and take a quick run through its parties as well as the parties that are likely to join the current governing coalition if they make it in to the Knesset.
A. Governing Coalition
i. The Likud
One of Israel's largest and most powerful parties, this is the party of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and goes into this election for the 38th Israeli government with a bloc of 32 seats. Netanyahu has been plagued by his personal legal problems including his ongoing criminal trial - and has been fighting to distance himself from any responsibility for the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023. Netanyahu is a master politician, who knows how to win elections. He often comes up with last minute surprises - which is why his nickname in Hebrew is the "magician." For years, he painted himself as "Mr. Security" and campaigned on the idea that no one else could possibly fill his shoes. As a result of the the October 7th war, Netanyahu's image has absorbed some damage. Many Israelis, including many of those on the right of the spectrum, believe that Netanyahu has pandered to the ultra-religious and refused to enact a stronger draft bill - that would ensure that more of the Haredim enlist in the army. Others are concerned that by giving Ben-Gvir a portfolio covering the police and a range of internal matters, Netanyahu has let things get out of control in Judea and Samaria. The world is paying attention to unchecked settler riots and pogroms in these territories and the Israeli government has not done nearly enough to stop these activities. Many Israelis are also upset that three years after the events of October 7th, there has still not been an exhaustive national inquiry (or any inquiry) and the security situation is not really in a better place than it was before this current government took charge.
Most polling numbers are projecting a drop in seats for the Likud party from 32 down to somewhere between 19 and 23. Many Likud Knesset members are likely to lose their seats.
ii. Shas
Shas is the second largest party in the current government bloc. It is an ultra-religious, Sephardi party led by a twice-convicted felon, Aryeh Deri. The first time around, it was fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Deri spent 22 months in prison from 2009 and was released from the balance of his 3 year term for "good behaviour." Shas pushes to help the ultra-orthodox Sephardi community by securing government funding for preferential housing, funding for religious institutions, medical care in ultra-religious neighbourhoods, all while generally opposing military enlistment. In Israel's earlier history, Shas was willing to go along with the Labour bloc of parties - for the right financial deal. More recently, and certainly over the past several elections, Shas has been entirely tied to the Netanyahu camp - mainly because Netanyahu has been the only one willing to give Shas what it wants. (And to agree to appoint Deri as the Minister of the Interior - even though he was convicted of offences twice while holding that role). I don't think I need to say more about Deri - the convictions speak for themselves - other than to note that, like Bibi, he is a master campaigner and politician, who has a way of rounding up his base voters - no matter what he might do. Or perhaps they figure whatever he is up to - is for their benefit. Shas has 11 seats in the current Knesset. Most polls are projecting them to wind up with 7 or 8. I'm not sure where these voters will go - perhaps to Ben Gvir, Smotrich or Winter - see below.
iii. United Torah Judaism
Made up of two ultra orthodox (Haredi) Ashkenazi parties - this is the primary group representing Me'ah Sh'arim in Jerusalem, areas of Bet Shemesh and other Ashkenazi, Ultra-Orthodox areas. These parties are anti-Zionist. They refuse to serve in the army - or study secular subjects. They look to the state to fund their lifestyle of Torah study, large families supported by state funds, housing subsidies, food subsidies and a state sponsored network of Yeshivas and rabbinically-governed organizations including the whole Kashrut system. They have 7 seats in the current Knesset and are likely to wind up with a similar number. It seems unlikely that they could wind up in any government other than a Likud-led government. While some of the other parties might be willing to pay them off - other Knesset parties and members including Lieberman, Lapid, Bennett and Golan - are not willing to give UTJ anything close to what they want. UTJ current has 7 seats in the Knesset. They are likely to wind up with the same number.
iv. Otzma Yehudit
This party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir is a far right party and successor of the old Kahane-led Kach party (which was banned from the Israeli Knesset). Ben-Gvir is an active, talented politician-demagogue. Once viewed as too extreme to join any centrist government, he has been playing a key role in the current Netanyahu government. Ben-Gvir has been characterized in the media as racist, anti-Arab, extremist and in all kinds of other even more colourful language. Ben-Gvir has a criminal record for "incitement" among other crimes and was deemed too extreme to go to the army. Nevertheless, he is currently Israel's Minister of National Security, even though Netanyahu adamantly stated that Ben-Gvir would not be Minister in his government before the last election. He is now running a campaign demanding that he be the Minister of Defence in the next Netanyahu government.
Despite his harsh and extremist views, Ben-Gvir often makes public media appearances, engaging those who disagree with him with a big smile and a sense of humour, while often brandishing his handgun with little provocation. He has cultivated an almost "campy" image - which is the way he is portrayed on "Eretz Nehederet" (the Israeli equivalent of Saturday Night Live). At the same time, the show also portrays him as a foaming-at-the-mouth extremist. Ben Gvir's party is currently at 7 seats in the Knesset but could wind up with 7 to 10 seats after this coming election.
v. Religious Zionist Party
This party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, was originally the successor of the old "Mafdal" party - a party of which Naftali Bennett was originally an active member.
Smotrich is a lawyer by profession. His views are fairly similar to those of Ben-Gvir. He has been subjected to international sanctions by a wide range of countries for permitting, or encouraging violence against Arab civilians.
Smotrich has been serving as the Minister of Finance in the current Likud-led government.
Other than the personality clashes, I am not sure what distinguishes Smotrich's views from those of Ben-Gvir - though Smotrich is not nearly as talented a speaker as Ben-Gvir. Smotrich's party currently has six seats in the Knesset. At the start of the campaign, polling numbers were projecting that this party would not pass the threshold and would be ousted from the Knesset.
Smotrich added Moshe Feiglin and his Zehut (Identity) party into the mix as his number 2 candidate. Since then, most polls have put the RZP at anywhere from 4 to 7 seats. I think there is a strong likelihood that they will make it into the Knesset. My best guess would be 4 to 6.
That is more or less the roundup of the parties that are part of the current governing coalition. If you add all of that up - it comes to a range of 44 to 54 seats. That is a fairly wide range. Sometimes an increase for one party would come at the expense of another party. In other words, it is unlikely that each party in this coalition could maximize its numbers because the pool of voters they are all drawing from is the same pool.
These numbers are not enough to form a government. Netanyahu and the Likud would need to get at least 28-30 seats, in my view, to be able to form a government and they would need those seats to come from centrist voters rather than voters in Netanyahu's existing coalition. There are three more parties to mention.
Vi. Amcha Yisrael
Led by Ofer Winter, this is another far-right nationalist party, that is largely indistinguishable in its views and policies from the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Winter has a much more developed military background. He held high ranking positions and, usually, sounds more rational than either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich. He has campaigned on the platform that all members of the current government who were in power when October 7th happened should be replaced. On the other hand - he says that he is a firm part of the right wing bloc - and the only leader he could support would be Netanyahu. These two positions do not really go well together - and when Winter or anyone else in his party are asked about it - they get tongue-tied trying to explain their position. They are hovering around the electoral threshold but I think that they are likely to wind up with 4 seats, maybe even 5. However, these seats could come at the expense of Smotrich or Ben-Gvir. So there is a chance that either Smotrich's party or Winter's party will make it in - and the other party will fail to pass. If Amcha Yisrael, the RZP and Otzma Yehudit all make it into the Knesset, that will mean 14-18 far-right Knesset members - and they will all have to be part of a government for Netanyahu to stay in power. In other words, Israel could wind up with an even further to the right government than it currently has.
Vii. Reservists / the Financial Party
This self-described right centre party is led by Yoaz Hendel and Economics professor Yaron Zelekha. Hendel is on the right centre of the Israeli political spectrum. He holds a PhD in history and has been a very active reserve officer of the IDF. Hendel has been strongly opposed to a government forming with Monsour Abbas in the coalition, which has meant that he is unlikely to hold the balance of power in a coalition government. Up until recently, Hendel's party was polling at under the threshold. They are now flirting with getting 4 seats. They are a wild card since they could agree to join a Netanyahu government - or they could go with the opposition. Ultimately, I don't think that they are going to pass the threshold but they could wind up with 4 or even 5 seats - which would make things really interesting. These seats would probably come from the opposition - so I think if Hendel's party does get in - it is likely to mean lower numbers for the other opposition parties - or some of them.
Viii. National Unity - Benny Gantz
When Benny Gantz first arrived on the Israeli political scene - he was seen as a great hope for the centre of Israeli politics. Someone who could take on Netanyahu and wrest away power from the Likud. Gantz first got involved in politics in 2018 but kept his views very guarded. He held an initial press conference to announce his candidacy but refused to provide any specifics of his new party's platforms or proposals. At his peak in 2019, Gantz's party won 33 seats but could not form a government. He eventually reached a rotation agreement with Netanyahu whereby he would serve as Minister of Defence in Netanyahu's government and then eventually Prime Minister. The government collapsed and Gantz never got his rotation.
The perception of Gantz among many Israelis is that he is a weak leader who lacks the ability to stand up to Netanyahu's bullying tactics. Although Gantz's party now has 12 seats in the Knesset, they are not projected by any of the polls to pass the electoral threshold. Gantz has stubbornly refused to drop out since he is receiving state funds for his election campaign because of his seats from the 2022 election.
I think it is highly unlikely that Gantz will pass the threshold.
If, somehow, 2 or 3 of these parties were to make it in - for example Amcha and the Reservists - and the Likud was at the high end of projections with 54 - they may be able to cobble together a government with 61-63 seats. The other possibility is that the Netanyahu "mystique" works its magic closer to election day and Netanyahu surprises with 28-30 seats for the Likud.
I guess I have to go out on a limb. After all, it is only fun to write blogs like this - if I actually put myself out there and make some predictions - even if they wind up being wrong. I think that the entire Likud-led bloc, including Amcha and the others will be stuck at somewhere between 54 and 58 and unable to form a government.
Which means we might be in for a stalemate and a new election after about 3-4 months. But I will look at the opposition and go through their parties in a similar way.
I think I may have mentioned that this would be a lengthy blog. Sorry but I hope you are finding it interesting.
B. The Opposition
i. Yashar - led by Eisenkot
The current opposition party that is leading in projected seats is the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli IDF general, whose son was killed in Gaza in the most recent war.
Eisenkot is considered a centrist on the Israeli political landscape. Many commentators have written that the party's name "straight" is perfectly suited to Eisenkot - who is generally seen a person representing values of decency, integrity, service to the State of Israel - and devotion to his family.
Eisenkot is an advocate of equality values in Israel and has actively campaigned to ensure that more ultra-religious Jews are drafted into the army.
His party is polling at between 20 and 24 seats. These are probably people who previously voted for Gantz or Lapid's party.
Netanyahu's main attack on Eisenkot is that he will not be able to form a government and will rely on anti-Zionist Arab parties. Eisenkot has denied this and has pledged that his proposed coalition will get more than 61 seats.
He is not super-charismatic but he does project a sense of decency. Faced with a skilled debater like Netanyahu, Eisenkot could wind up in a real fight. But as a career military man, he is not one to shy away from a good fight. He has lots of ammunition to use against Netanyahu and he has been willing to use it.
Since Eisenkot's party has never run - it will be interesting to see what actually happens on election day. Will they come in well ahead of the polls, well below the polls or right at their projected numbers . This will really be a key determining factor as to whether Israel might see a change of government. If Eisenkot can get 25 or more seats - and beat the Likud numbers - he might be able to piece together a government.
ii. Beyachad (Bennett and Lapid)
This is a really interesting party. Made up of Naftali Bennet's party combined with Lapid's Yesh Atid - the party is a mishmash of centrists, right-centre politicians and slightly left-centre politicians. The current Knesset had 23 Yesh Atid members and Bennet did not run in 2022. Now the party is hovering around 12-14. Bennett came from the right of the spectrum but is seen as someone who "sold out" by making a deal with Monsour Abbas to be able to form a government. Bennett continues to describe himself has solidly in the right-wing camp. Some members of his own party pulled the plug on his previous government. Lapid is seen by some right-centrists as too far to the left (even though he really isn't). So when Bennett and Lapid joined forces, their respective supporters felt alienated. Nevertheless, Bennett is charismatic and thoughtful and has been campaigning all over the country - even in places where he is not popular. Like Eisenkot, Bennett really does project a sense of decency and competency. He could also surprise the pollsters with a higher than predicated showing.
iii. Democrats
Not to be confused with the U.S. Democratic party, this party is a fusion of the old Israeli Labour Party, mixed together with the Meretz party - a far left secularist party. Golan is a reserve Major General in the army. On October 7, 2023, he sprang into action, "re-enlisted" to the army, received a weapon and munitions and headed down to the Gaza envelope where he rescued several people.
Golan's party is the furthest left of any of the major Israeli parties running for election - other than the communist/ socialist Arab parties. Golan is a strong advocate of equality of all types - gender equality, sexual orientation equality, religious equality and other forms. His party is probably the only Jewish-Israeli party running that it is promoting a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute currently.
As a politician, Golan is much tougher and more "in your face" than Eisenkot. His views are seen as extreme by a big chunk of the Israeli electorate. He is someone who will never back down to any kind of Netanyahu pressure.
One of the concerns that many potential Eisenkot voters are having is the concern that Eisenkot may turn into Gantz and get chewed up by Netanyahu. Neither Bennett nor Golan are seen as having that concern.
The Israeli Labour party only has 4 seats in current Knesset. Golan's party is now project to get 9 to 12.
iv. Yisrael Beitenu - "Israel is our Home" - led by Avigdor Lieberman
This party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, has significant support from the Russian community in Israel.
Lieberman is right wing on issues involving Palestinian-Jewish or Arab-Israeli disputes, though at one time in the past, he backed a plan to divide the country and have the Arab Israelis become part of any nascent Palestinian state or federation.
Lieberman is more libertarian on issues including separation of religion from the state, to some degree, and military service or the equivalent for all Israeli citizens.
As a former Likud party member, Lieberman worked closely with Netanyahu in several different governments and has held posts as Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Lieberman, like Bennett and Eisenkot, believes that he is running to be the Prime Minister and maintains that his experience and his right-wing credentials would make him a compromise candidate for the opposition.
In the current Knesset, Lieberman's party has 6 seats. The party might make it to 8 or 9 based on recent polls but I am going to predict 6 to 8.
So if we add up these four opposition parties - we get to somewhere between 49 and 59. Yes that is a wide range - and yes - the same issue applies to this bloc as it applied to the governing bloc. Some votes may come from other parties within the same coalition.
Ultimately, I have not seen any recent polls or projections that would give the opposition 61 seats.
Are there are any other options? Well, one option would be a deal with the Reservists - if they were to make it. Let's say the Reservists had 5 and the opposition bloc had 56. That could get to 61 but would be a very shaky government, not likely to last.
Would Winter's party join? He says absolutely not - that he is ONLY supporting Netanyahu. But he also says he wants a new government. Could he be pried away from the Netanyahu bloc? Depending on the numbers, I don't think we could rule it out.
But, of course, there are still two more parties and two more options..
C. The Arab Parties
i. Ra'am
Led by Monsour Abbas, a devout Muslim, this has been the first Muslim-Arab Israeli party to show an interest in joining a Jewish-Israeli led government and playing an active role.
Abbas is a Muslim-Arab-Israeli - who grew up in Israel. He is a dentist by profession who has studied at Hebrew University and University of Haifa. He is, of course, fluent in Hebrew.
Abbas is a very skilled and tactful politician, who routinely appears on Hebrew language talk shows. He is happy to answer all sorts of questions - and is often faced with hostility from the Israeli right wing.
Abbas has conservative views on social issues and has been willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. From many different assessments that I have read - he did a fine job as a minister in the relatively short-lived Bennett government - and I think he would make a great minister in a future government.
Perhaps that is not a popular view among many Israelis - especially those on the right of the political spectrum.
More recently - Abbas recruited Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Israeli retired police major general - to serve as his #2 candidate - which is really quite a fascinating step for an Arab Israeli party. Segalovitz has strong security minded credentials and is not viewed as an extreme leftist. But he is now running as a high ranking member of the Ra'am party - which, I believe, is a first in Israeli politics.
Ra'am currently has five seats in the Israeli Knesset and I believe that they will wind up with 5 or 6 once again. The question is whether they will wind up helping the opposition take control of the government. So far, Lieberman, Eisenkot and Bennett have all opposed forming a government with Ra'am. But I don't think we can fully rule out some type of arrangement if that is what it will take to oust Netanyahu.
Joint List
This is a group of three Arab Israeli parties - Hadash, Balad and Ta'al.
Unlike Abbas' party, these three parties tend to be strongly anti-Zionist and opposed to any type of active participation in the government.
These parties are rooted in Arab nationalism, socialism or communism and a great deal of anti-Israel rhetoric.
In fact. this year, Sami Abu Shehadeh, who was the leader of the Balad party, was disqualified from running in the current election due to comments he made that were perceived as glorifying the October 7, 2026 massacres. Abu Shehadeh appealed to the Supreme Court. During the hearing, the President of the Court told Abu Shehadeh that the votes were there to expel him - and gave him the choice of withdrawing on his own - which he opted to do. His party, Balad is still running.
These joint list parties could wind up with 10-15 seats in the Knesset but they have no interest in joining a "Zionist" government - and the Zionist parties have no interest in having them join.
One could question whether this really benefits the Arab Israeli community. Would they not be better off - adjusting some of their positions - and trying to join the government like Ra'am? Surely this would assist Arab Israelis far more than staying on the side lines. But that is perhaps for another day.
Political Conclusion
Looking at all of the above, I have concluded that, as of October 13, 2026, the most likely outcome is a stalemate. There will then be a fight over whether Netanyahu remains on as the interim Prime Minister until a new election can be held - or whether the opposition parties, including the Arab parties - will find a way to change the interim government. I am going to put a stalemate at just about 50%.
I think, based on current numbers, the second most likely event is a Netanyahu government of some sort. I'll put that at about 30%.
Finally, that leaves the opposition - who I think is now sitting at only about a 20% chance of forming a government.
These are all wild guesses based on my analyses of polls, online articles, listening to various commentators and putting my finger up to the wind to gage some general Israeli sentiments that I am hearing. But of course, we will have to wait until October 27th or perhaps the 28th or 29th to see where the numbers are at -and try to determine what will be happening next.
I hope you found this interesting. It wound up being a lot longer than I expected - and taking a lot more time. So much so that I will leave other topics to my next blog.
