Political Blog: Days Before Israel Closes its Candidate Lists 2026

It is a long weekend in North America - Labour Day Weekend - but not here in Israel. Unfortunately, there are no real long weekends in Israel.  Sunday is generally a regular work day - and Shabbat is a different kind of day - where many things  are closed.  Although many Israelis do not work on Fridays - schools are open in most parts of Israel - and many people do work.  So there is no real equivalent of Sunday - where people can go shopping, go on trips with their family, sign the kids up for sports and other activities - etc.,

As well - there are no real "long weekend" holidays - the equivalent of Victoria Day in Canada or Memorial Day in the US, or Labour Day or the August Long Weekend ("Simcoe Day" in Ontario.  

That's not to say Israel has a shortage of holidays - we have lots.  But most of them are Jewish Holy Days - which for observant people - mean no work, no travelling, no commerce etc.,  So these days are not "free holidays" - the way that people in other countries enjoy days off.  One day that is close is Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day  - where people often get together for barbecues or visits to some of  Israel's national parks.  Another time period is the two periods of Hol-Hamoed - during Sukkot and during  Pesach, when many Israelis have time off.  Parenthetically, many Israelis, especially non-observant Israelis, travel out of the country during those periods of time.  Others travel within Israel, which means the roads and highways are completely jammed.

In a way, none of this affects me directly, since my work is primarily Canada based - so I can be off on Labour Day and Sundays, even though these are regular work days for most other Israelis.  The Jewish Holy Days can be more of a challenge - but that was the case even while I was in Toronto - and for anyone observing these Holy Days outside of Israel. It is certainly easier in years like this when some of the major holy days fall on weekends.

We plan to make the most of the Labour Day holiday tomorrow - and take a drive up north - towards the Golan Heights.  Perhaps a winery or two is in our future, perhaps a bee farm - where we might pick up some honey for the upcoming holidays -and perhaps an olive oil production factory.  Or maybe we will stop at a chocolate producer.  It might be a bit hot for walk in a national park - but there are some really great ones in northern Israel.

Upcoming Elections

We are in overdrive with election news here in Israel.  Even though the election is not scheduled to take place until October 27th, there is a huge date coming up this week on Wednesday - the date by which all parties have to finalize their candidate lists.  Watching the news unfold - feels like watching the quarter-finals or semi-finals of a sports tournament - so many things going on.

There is a fairly short explanation for this.  There are currently 16 parties listed as having a chance to make it into the Knesset. Right now only 12 of these parties are projected to make it, based on current polls.  Parties need 3.25% to get into the Knesset - at which point they start off with 4 seats (in the 120 member Knesset).  If they don't make it - their votes all get wasted and redistributed, proportionately, among those that have made it in.  

This means that the parties that are close to or below the threshold are negotiating furiously to find options that would get them into the Knesset through amalgamation - or  other deals.  Alternatively, if the picture looks really bad - some of these parties will have to decide whether to fold and not run.

I will write more about all of this once everything  has closed and the final slates are in - but here are a view interesting pieces of information and a few comments on each of the main parties running now.

The Likud

The current governing party - the Likud, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is running at between 19 and 22 seats in most polls - other than Channel 14 (A Fox-type pro-Bibi station) which has the Likud at 31. These polls also project Likud being able to secure between 47 and 53 coalition members, which is well short of the 61 needed to form a government.  There is still lots of time - but there is no question that Bibi is starting to panic looking at these numbers.

Last Sunday night - he gave one of his first interviews in a long time - and came with up his latest spin on the horrifying events of October 7, 2026.  Bibi says "I was asleep when the various military personnel met at 3 a.m. that day (3 hours before the attacks started). They were scared to wake me up because they were worried that I would launch massive counterattacks immediately and throw the whole Mideast into turmoil."  He softly denied that he was promoting a conspiracy theory but of course claimed that everyone had failed - the army, the intelligence, the secret services, - everyone except Bibi.

Later in the week, his office released his schedule and it is quite clear that he received full updates at about 625 a.m. when the attacks began.  No one really knows (at this point) what Bibi did between 6:30 and 10 a.m. but he did not speak with the army commander until approximately 10 a.m. Hardly the schedule of someone who would "spring into action" at the first sign of any problems.

Coupled with this, Netanyahu's wife Sara had been on TV for an interview a day earlier - and she basically suggested that Yair Golan, the leader of the Democratic Party (in Israel) (Not affiliated  in any way with the US Democrats) had known about the attacks ahead of time and already had his uniform on and arrived at the massacre site very early in the day to join in the fighting.  In fact she wondered why Golan knew what was going on and was already fighting while her husband was still asleep and wasn't informed. (It is indeed a funny sort of conspiracy allegation to suggest that Golan knew about the pending attack in advance - but would also be one of the first people to go and risk his life to stop it.  Doesn't sound like a great plan to me).

I won't spend too much time on  this - other  than to say that Golan received calls starting at 6:30 a.m. - went and put on a uniform and arranged to get weapons and headed down to the Gaza area as quickly as he could.  The people he went with are credited with saving more than 125 people. He put his life in danger, unquestionably - to go and try to save Israelis and defend the country. The suggestion that he knew about the attacks in advance is simply unhinged and provides much more information about Sara Netanyahu's mental state than  it does about Golan.

Golan promptly issued a libel warning to Sara Netanyahu - with a demand that she issue a full apology within 24 hours. Sara Netanyahu refused and I believe that Golan will now sue her as he has threatened.  He has threatened to sue for one million shequels and donate the proceeds to he victims of the October 7, 2023 attacks. From a legal point of view - it looks like a slam dunk case to me. She has no immunity since she is not a Knesset member, the allegations are clearly malicious and they are false.  Her supporters have claimed that she didn't actually suggest that there was a conspiracy - but I do not think any judges would buy that defence. Of course Sara, a convicted felon (for fraud and other financial improprieties) is no stranger to defending lawsuits.  Aside from her criminal matters, she has had a rash of lawsuits from former employees - mostly alleging torts like intentional infliction of emotional distress, abusive treatment and failure to comply with employment laws.

In any case, this is apparently the Netanyahu game plan for dealing with the events of October 7, 2023 - avoid taking responsibility, suggest a left-wing conspiracy, and launch all kinds of personal attacks on others with a whole range of attack ads aimed at the various opposition members claiming that they are "enemies of the state."

I guess it remains to be seen whether Israelis will buy all of this.  Hopefully not.

Yashar

This is a party led by former IDF General Gadi Eisenkot, which is running on more of a centrist platform (okay - right-centre really).  The party's name means "straight" or "straightforward" and one of the key elements of the platform is an explicit (and sometimes implicit) attack on the corruption of the current coalition.  Eisenkot's party is polling at between 21 and 25 seats. In most polls, it is ahead of the Likud, which would give it the first opportunity to build a government coalition.  Currently, even with all of its potential coalition allies, it is only polling at  between 55 and 58 seats.  That would put them at 3 to 6 seats short of being able to form a government.  One option would be to cut a deal with one or more of the three ultra-nationalist parties.  This is possible but unlikely since there would be such a wide diversity of views on so many issues.  Another possibility is that they could form a government with one of the ultra-religious parties. Again this seems unlikely since neither Eisenkot nor his other coalition members seem ready or willing to give the ultra-religious what they are seeking. A third possibility is another government with Monsour Abbas and his Ra'am party (like the government that Bennett formed when he was Prime Minister).  Although the various coalition members are claiming that they will not do this - I think that this option is something that is quite possible - if Yashar gets 57-60 other coalition seats.

B'yachad

B'yachad ("together") is a coalition made up of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former short serving Prime Minister Yair Lapid.  Although Bennett himself describes himself as a religious right wing observant Jew, he states that the most important thing is forming a proper government - even  if that means compromising with others.  There was talk that the party might join up with Yashar - and create one big party.  They still have until Wednesday to do that, but it is looking unlikely.  Apparently, they commissioned some huge polls and found that by combining, they might even lose  votes compared to their current numbers. The party released its election list today - and it is comprised of almost 50% women (perhaps the highest percentage of women candidates of any party) with a range of accomplished, highly qualified candidates.  Bennett has been travelling around the country meeting voters and discussing with them his party, its policy and positions.

Many voters he meets with are very upset with Bennett.  In the last round of elections, he promised in writing not to form a government with the Arab party Ra'am.  After the elections, he changed his position - at least in part because he saw that there was no other viable option to form a government and without a deal - there would be another election.

Over the past few weeks - the B'yachad numbers seem to be going up and are currently at 11 to 15.

The Far Right

Israel now has three ultra-right wing parties running.  These are religious Zionist parties - that seem to share the view that the only way to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is to annex all of the territory, expel all of the Palestinians (with payments or forcibly) and, eventually, rebuild the third Temple in Jerusalem (after destroying the Mosque of course..).

Otzma Yehudit

One party, Otzma Yehudit - Jewish power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at between 6 and 9 seats. Ben Gvir is an extreme populist - who has been serving as the Minister of National Security in the current Likud led government.  Ben-Gvir is a gentleman with a prison record for incitement, a history of being a disciple of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane and someone who the army would not take because he was too extreme.  Needless to say, he is responsible for allowing, explicitly or implicitly, the various attacks on Palestinian Arabs that have been taking place in Yehuda and Shomron.  

As you might have heard, U.S. Ambassador Huckabee, the most pro-Israel ambassador ever, recently describe these attacks as terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators to be arrested.  I doubt Ben Gvir was listening even though he is the head of national security.

Ben-Gvir recently added Tali Gottlieb to his party, who crossed over from the Likud party after failing to secure a high enough spot for herself in the recent Likud primaries. I could write a whole column about Gottlieb but let's just say she might even be more of an extremist than Ben Gvir.

Some commentators have indicate that Ben-Gvir and his party could get as many as 12-15 seats.  This would be quite frightening in my view.

Religious Zionist Party

This party is led by Bezalel Smotrich - who previously ran with Ben-Gvir.  He has been serving as Israel's Finance Minister - and has made all  kind of notorious statements and claims over the course of his term.  

Up until last week, he was polling at less than 3% and facing political wilderness.  He joined up with the Zehut (Identity) party led by Moshe Faglin and they are now polling at 5 to 6 seats.  It is still possible that this party will fail to make it over the finish line but that remains to be seen.

Your Nation Israel

The newest entry to the Israeli political circus is a new party called "Your Nation Israel" led by Ofer Vinter, a former Israeli General, without an extensive political background - but with extensive military experience.  One of the fascinating things is that Vinter signed up Arab Israeli Joseph Haddad as his number two candidate.  Haddad is an Arab Israeli who has served in the Israeli army and is well known for his active "hasbara" efforts on behalf of Israel.  Some Rabbis have complained publicly about Vinter having an Arab Israeli in such a high position in his party.  Others have flooded him with support.  This alone differentiates him from the other two ultra-right wing parties - though I note, for what it is worth, that Haddad is a Christian Arab and not a Muslim Arab. 

Netanyahu is pleading and begging with Vinter to join up with Smotrich's party or with Ben-Gvir to ensure that the votes are not wasted.  Vinter's party is currently polling at 5 to 6 seats but Netanyahu believes that either Vinter's party or Smotrich's party will fail to pass the threshold which would harm the Netanyahu bloc's chances.

In my view, it is within the realm of possibility that Vinter could actually join Eisenkot - if there were no other options. Vinter has denied that this could happen  - but we are talking about Israeli politics of course - everything is possible.

Overall, these three ultra-nationalist parties are polling at 15-20 seats combined - which is a huge number.  A government that might be made up of Likud plus these folks plus the ultra-religious parties - would create an enormous danger for the continued existence of Israel as a liberal democracy and could move the country even further along the path towards a religious state - like Türkiye or even worse.

The Democrats

This is the party led by Yair Golan that was formerly made up of the left-wing worker oriented Labour party (the party of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) and the far left party Meretz - which focused on equality, secularism and a political compromise with the Palestinians.  The Meretz party was devasted in the last elections with Meretz failing to make it past the threshold and the Labour party emerging as a shadow of its former self.  Led by Golan, the Democrats rebranded themselves, merged the two parties and are now polling at 8 to 11 seats.  

Golan was a senior military figure and he is tough as nails.  He is a reserve Major General.  When he first heard of the outbreak of the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023, he sprang into action  - even though he was a retired officer - and headed down to the Gaza area to join the fighting and try to save lives.

Golan is viewed by some on the right as fairly extreme. He is a supporter of full Arab participation in Israeli governments, a two-state solution and full equality for all people in the State of Israel.  He has been known to make some statements at times that have been viewed as extreme by many on the political right.

However, ultimately, he has impeccable  military credentials and is in favour of a strong, democratic, Jewish state, with equal rights for all citizens. He is the most likely of all the candidates to stick to his principles and refuse to make a deal with Netanyahu.  There is a also a good chance that he will achieve a higher number of seats than currently projected.

Yisrael Beitenu

The Yisrael Beitenu Party (Israel, Our Home), led by Avigdor Liberman is polling at between 7 and 10 seats.  This is also a fairly right wing party, heavily supported by Israeli Russian expatriates, but one that is dedicated to separating the state from much of the religious legal framework that now envelopes the State.  Liberman and his party favour full conscription for all military aged Israelis (including Arab citizens and the ultra-religious), full access to civil marriage for everyone (including the LGBT community) and a weakening of many different religious laws generally - including those that apply to Kashrut and Shabbat across the country. More than anything else, Liberman would like to see an Israeli government that does not include the large ultra-orthodox parties.  Liberman himself has extensive political experience and views himself as a possible Prime Minister as part of a coalition deal. He will almost certainly agree to form a government with Eisenkot and Bennett and is very unlikely to join a government led by Netanyahu. He will try to get the Prime Minister's role - even on a rotational basis.

The Ultra-Religious

There are two major ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).  I am not going to discuss them at length but I do have a few comments.

Shas

Shas is made up of primarily Sephardi ultra-orthodox supporters - and is led by convicted felon and fraudster Aryeh De'eri - who has been serving as a Minister in Netanyahu's current government. They are polling at 7 to 10 seats and are likely to be in the government only if Netanyahu can win again. Then again, if they are facing the political wilderness, they might make a deal with other parties for the right amount of money.  They would rather secure funding for their Yeshivas and other institutions than face four years of greatly reduced funding.  De'eri does know how to make all sorts of deals - which also include terms that are to his own personal benefit. For now, they are one of the parties that Netanyahu can really count on - if he has any chance to form a government.

UTJ

This is the ultra-orthodox, anti-Zionist, anti army party - supported by those who live in ultra-religious strongholds in Jerusalem, B'nei Brak and parts of Beit Shemesh.  They are also polling at 7 or 8 consistently (since their supporters vote for whomever their rabbis tell them to vote for).

They are strongly in the Netanyahu camp and very unlikely to support any other leader or party. Then again, for the right amount of money....

But don't worry, no other parties are about to offer them the money and deal it would take to leave Netanyahu.

RA'AM

One of the most interesting parties - this is an Arab Muslim party that was originally fundamentalist in outlook.  The Ra'am party leader Monsour Abbas decided that he would like his party to become involved in Israeli politics in a direct way.  This culminated in him joining the Bennett government - and Abbas becoming a Minister in that government.  

Many on Israel's right - oppose Abbas and  his party and claim that he has not been clear enough in denouncing Hamas.  They argue that the inclusion of Abbas in an Israeli government endangers Israel.

There is no suggestion that Abbas did anything, while serving  in the Bennett government, that warrants this criticism.

Most recently, Abbas announced that he  had come to agreement with a Jewish Zionist politician, former head of the Police services in Israel, Yoav Segalovitz, to join his party and run as number 2 on his list.  This is fascinating.  Perhaps the first time in Israel's history that a Jewish Zionist has joined an Arab Muslim led party - with a view to changing the country.

Some Arab Israelis oppose the inclusion of Segalovitz in the party - but they are being assured by Abbas that this is an appropriate move.  Some Jewish Israelis oppose the move by Segalovitz and question his loyalty.  Still others wonder if this is some sort of trick by Abbas to make his party more palatable as a coalition partner.  

I have heard Abbas many times on TV (he speaks fluent Hebrew of course and English) and, in my view, he seems like quite a decent guy - sincere, and committed to some kind of long-term solution for Muslims and Jews in Israel. Abbas is a trained Dentist with a degree from Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has also completed some of the work towards his Masters Degree in political science from the University of Haifa. He is a proud bearer of multiple identies. Arab. Palestinian. Muslim. Israeli. And he argues that these can all go together. 

Ra'am is running at 4 to 6 seats currently and would like to join the next government.  A Bibi-led coalition is unlikely to make a deal with Ra'am. Some of the opposition parties have said that they will not make an agreement with Ra'am either, but I think that we cannot rule out this possibility.

Other Arab Parties

There are three other Arab parties that run together as the combined "Joint List." Generally, these are anti-Zionist, communist, Muslim parties that are not interested or willing to join  a Zionist-led government - unlike the Ra'am party, which publicly accepts that Israel is a Jewish State. The Joint list is currently polling at 7 to 9 seats.  Party members can and will certainly vote on different bills - which could include bills to dissolve the Knesset.  But unless there is a tremendous sea change - including a change in some of their views - they are unlikely to play a role in any near term Israeli governing coalition.

There you have it - that is my wrap up of the current state of political affairs - as of three days before the lists close.  I will try to write again on Wednesday night or Thursday -once the list deadline passes but before Rosh Hashanah but that might be difficult given the timing.

Final Word on Israeli Politics

There is lots of time between now and October 27th, 2026. I think there are still three strong possibilities and we cannot rule any of them  out.  One  possibility is, essentially, a stalemate.  If no coalition can form a government of 61  - we may face additional rounds of election or we might see some sort of surprise compromise - with either some ultra-religious, some ultra-nationalist (Vinter?) or the Ra'am party helping to form a government.  The anti-Netanyahu coalition may wind up being the winners of a stalemate.

If Netanyahu and his current coalition members can get past 61 -  we can expect more of the same - and perhaps even harder right policies.  The various coalition members, who are all to the right of  Netanyahu or seem to be, are committed to attacking the current judicial system, enhancing executive power, continuing to move Israel towards a path towards annexation of Judea and Samaria, exempting the ultra-religious from the army and attacking equality in various ways and forms, procedurally and substantively, across the country. 

If the anti-Likud coalition can get past 61 seats and form a government, Israel could see quite a huge number of changes, especially on a wide range of domestic policy issues - and possibly in its approach to foreign policy issues as well.  I believe it would be a far less corrupt government - with policies that would ultimately be more representative of the country as a whole.

Other Notes

Israeli TV has spent a fair bit of time over the past few days speaking about the US-Canada trade dispute.

The tone from the Israeli press - I think - is trepidation.   Israeli reporters are wondering what it is that has made Trump so intent on attacking Canada - one of the U.S.'s closest long standing allies, with the largest shared border in the world.  If this is how Trump treats his "friends" - what is going to happen to us?

If Trump would rather spend his time getting the US to cosy up to Türkiye, Qatar, Russia and other very questionable regimes - while attacking and alienating long term allies of the US in Europe, Canada and  other places around the world - what does that mean for the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship? Especially since Bibi banked  completely on Trump and the Republicans and turned the U.S.-Israel relationship into a partisan issue in the US.

Of course, it is not that Israelis are feeling warm and fuzzy about Canada's current government.  The current Liberal government led by Prime Minister  Carney is probably the most anti-Israeli government in Canada's history. These policies have almost certainly played a role in the outbreak of anti-Semitic attacks across the country including attacks on synagogues, Jewish schools, Jewish owned stores and restaurants and, of course, universities, across Canada.

Toronto looks like it is on a path to re-electing an extremely anti-Israel, and probably anti-Semitic mayor, which is really frightening for a city with such a large Jewish population that used to feel safe in the City. 

But despite the situation in Canada, I think Israelis are really starting to wonder whether such a close relationship with Trump will wind up benefiting the country in the long run. Maybe they are even starting to wonder about the medium term.

Sports

Interestingly, Israeli TV networks do tend to show lots of NFL games, regular season and playoffs and lots of NHL playoff games.  But almost no baseball.  I think the average Israeli figures it is simply too boring - especially without having grown up with the sport.

I am admittedly somewhat of a bandwagon jumper myself, but I have been on the bandwagon for a while now - since the Blue Jays started to play reasonably well early last year.  It was a devastating game 7 World Series loss - and this season has not lived up to expectations.

But despite all of that, the Blue Jays have fought themselves back to 0.500 baseball and a tie for the last wild card spot.  So the remaining 19 games will be super  meaningful - and I will have to watch them by streaming them with a VPN - at some very inconvenient times.  

Today's Labour Day game is at a reasonably convenient time - so that helps.

Conclusion

We are gearing up for Rosh Hashanah, which, as you may know, starts on Friday night the 11th.

One of those years in which you will have to go to Shul on the second day if you want to hear the Shofar -  since the first day is Shabbat.

One of our family members will be in Toronto running  an auxiliary service.  Another will be in the U.S.  So it will be fairly quiet here for us for Rosh Hashanah.  For  Yom Kippur we will be leading tefillot here in Ra'anana - our kehillah seems to be in the range of 30  to 50 people - with a community break-fast at the end of the fast (after I blow the Shofar...). 

Wishing  everyone a meaningful, happy, healthy and successful New Year and hoping that I have time to update at least some of this political news later this week.  If you are not too interested in all of this domestic Israeli politics - sorry about that - but my blogs between now and late November (it may take 30 days for anyone to form a government in Israel after the elections) are likely to include lots of political news.

Yom Hashoah v Hagvurah - Holocaust Remembrance Day 2023

It has been a very busy month - between Pesach (Passover), several weddings, a funeral,  and other events here in  Israel - including family visits and work obligations.  As well, as you probably  know, there is quite a great deal going on politically in Israel.   But I will come back to that in another blog soon.

Today is Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah - the Day of Remembrance  of the Holocaust and Bravery in Israel - and around the world and I wanted to write some reflections about this  day.

Holocaust memorial day in Israel is one of the most important and one of the most sombre days of the year.  In cities across the country, ceremonies are held in city centres and are extremely well attended.  Restaurants, stores and shops close early on the evening of Yom HaShoah.  People put on white shirts and walk over to the local commemorations.

We went to the Ra'anana commemoration.  The theme this year was 80 years since the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.  The one-hour event included a torch lighting  by a survivor  of the uprising.  Teen participants in Jewish youth movements lit hundreds of candles to symbolize the  millions  of Jews killed in the Holocaust.

There were several  readers - who read out diary entries, poetry and other writings from people  who perished over the course of the Warsaw uprising - or others who somehow  managed to survive.  There were several musical performances as well which were powerful and emotional.  The mayor of Ra'anana, Chaim Broido, spoke about his parents - who were Holocaust survivors - and others spoke about the  horror of the events that took place in Warsaw.  The memorial closed with the chanting of "El Maleh Rahamim" by a Ra'anana Hazan (cantor) and then  the singing of Hatikvah, Israel's national anthem.

We walked back  home - and turned on the TV.   All of the Israeli stations show Holocaust programming on the  evening  of Yom HaShoah.  We watched one program about a heroic French Nun, Sister Denise Bergon, who saved more than 80 Jewish children - and the story, in particular, about two  French sisters who she managed to  keep alive.

We watched a few other programs, including a moving interview with several Holocaust survivors and the way in which their children have made efforts to spread their stories to as many people as possible.  

This morning, at 10 a.m., across Israel, there was two-minute long siren.  Everything stops across the country.  People who are travelling stop their cars and get out and stand  next  to the cars until the alarm is over.  It is extremely powerful.

Later this morning, I watched the National Holocaust commemoration  at  Yad Vashem featuring Israel's Knesset members, various rabbis, Supreme Court judges, survivors, and others who all participated in different ways.  The  last part of the event was "the reading of names."  Various participants, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, Chief Justice Hayat, cabinet members, opposition Knesset members and others - all took turns coming up to the microphone  and telling the story of a few Holocaust victims - and reading out the names of these victims and  others.

So many Knesset members and other Israeli officials told the story of their grandparents or great grandparents - or uncles or aunts - or other family members.  So many people were affected by the Holocaust - and lost so many family members.   I couldn't help but think about my family members who perished during the Holocaust as well.

My great grandfather, Moshe Yaakov and  his wife  Channa,  were murdered on August 16 or 17, 1941 by Lithuanian  Nazi sympathizers in the town of Kamajai, Lithuania.  We were later told by cousins of ours, who miraculously survived the war, that it was the son of  neighbours of my great grandparents - who actually murdered them.

On the other side of my family, my great grandparents Avram and Chaya were sent by train to Auschwitz-Birkenau.   Their son, Gabriel (my grandfather's brother), was also sent there with his wife and two children.  Gabriel was separated from the rest of the family and  somehow managed to survive the war.  He was eventually liberated from Auschwitz, emaciated, but alive.   His parents, his wife and his two children were taken away from him.  He never saw them again.  They were all murdered at Auschwitz.  After being liberated at the end of the war, Gabriel was sent to a displaced  person's camp.  He was able to find my grandfather and reunite with him in New York - and Gabriel eventually remarried and had one  daughter  (my dear cousin, who passed away just over a year ago).  

On both sides of my family - there were many others who were murdered - and whose names we do not have.  But for those whose names we do have - I wanted to state their names - in line  with the  well known Yad Vashem theme - "Each Person  has a Name."  

The Nazis and their collaborators not only sought to murder  all of the Jews in Europe.  They also sought to erase their identities  and  their memories.  They gave each imprisoned person a number and seared these numbers onto the arms of  the prisoners.  My uncle Gabriel  had a number like this burned onto his arm.

Many Jews in Europe were murdered - and in many cases - their identities were unknown.  Many were buried in mass graves or murdered or otherwise vanished.  And one of the key projects of Yad Vashem  has been to try and collect as much information as possible  about the victims - to dignify these people by finding their names, their  identities  and telling their stories.

To see the various Knesset members each coming up to the podium and recounting the names and stories of  different victims was not only powerful and emotional - it was also  another reminder of the importance of Israel as a Jewish state and as the only real defender, protector and haven  for the Jewish people.  For this one day - Knesset members from different sides of the aisle put  aside their  differences and all took part in remembering, dignifying and  honouring the  victims of  the Holocaust - and recounting stories of many  brave men, women and children who somehow  fought  back or  otherwise  survived.

May the memories of all of  the victims be for a  blessing - Y'hi Zichram Baruch.

Supreme Chaos in Israel?

Esther  Hayat, President  of Supreme Court 

Shavua Tov and happy 2023.  I am  writing this week about the legal situation in Israel.  We just finished one of  the most challenging weeks in Israeli legal history - and this promises to mark only the beginning.  I wanted to review some of the key events of the week - and add a bit of colour to the debate over these issues.  According to some commentators, we are seeing the start of a legal "revolution", a coup or a dictatorial take-over of the courts by the Israeli Knesset.  Others view the proposed changes as a shift of power from an unelected Supreme  Court to the Knesset - the elected body.  I intend to address this.

First, a bit of background.  As you may know from reading the news (or maybe from reading one of my blogs), the current government coalition includes the appointment of Aryeh Deri as a Minister.  Deri has been installed as the Minister of Health and the Minister of the Interior - as well as the Vice Prime Minister as part of the coalition agreements that fomed the current government.  He is the head of the Shas party, which won 11 seats in the recent elections.

Deri, as you may also recall, was convicted of bribery, corruption and breach of public trust in 1999.  According to Israeli law, he was then barred from serving as a Minister for 7 years.  After spending some  time in jail - and then doing whatever else he was doing for several years - he returned to politics as the leader of the Shas party and eventually became, once again, the Minister of the Interior as part of a Netanyahu government.  Deri was previously the Minister of the Interior at the time his original offences were committed.  He had now been "rehabilitated" and was able to return to the scene of the crime (in the very same position).

While serving as Minister of the Interior the second time, Deri came under investigation for a new series of offences.  This led to several criminal charges.  Ultimately, in 2021, Deri reached a plea bargain agreement at which he was convicted of tax fraud and given a suspended sentence along with a fine.  At his plea bargain hearing in court, Deri stated that he was leaving public life and willing to "accept his punishment."  The Court accepted the plea bargain arrangement and it was formalized.  All of the other criminal charges were dismissed.

The Court did not decide whether this conviction would bar Deri from serving as a Minister for 7 years - that  decision was left to a  future court. However, just days after his conviction, and his promise to stay  out of public  life, Deri announced that he was  returning to politics and would lead the Shas party in the next election.  He referred to his pledge in court to leave public life as a "misunderstanding."  Following Shas' successful campaign, Deri and his Shas party negotiated terms of the coalition agreement that included the appointment of Deri to two Ministerial positions and the position of Deputy Prime Minister.

Knowing that the appointment would likely be overturned by the Supreme Court, the new government also passed a new law (now known as the "Deri Law") stating that a criminal conviction without actual jail time does not bar a person from becoming a Minister.  That law passed three readings and became law in lightning fast time. Shortly afterwards, a petition was brought to the Supreme Court, challenging both the law and the appointment of Deri as a Minister.  The law was challenged on a number of grounds  including the "reasonableness" of the appointment itself, the  violation of Israel's basic laws (Israel's closest  thing to a constitution) and some other grounds.  The hearing was scheduled for, and took place on Thursday January 5, 2023.

The night before the hearing, the newly appointed Justice Minister, Yariv Levin, held a press conference at 8 p.m. to announce his intended legislative reforms to the Supreme Court and its power.   Levin set out a four point plan, which he referred to as "the first step" of his proposed changes.  His plan included the following:

1. Enacting an "override" clause that would allow the Knesset, with a simple majority, to override any decision of the Supreme Court that had nullified a law that had been passed.  Some supporters of the law pointed to the  Canadian Charter as an example of a  constitutional system that includes the power of the legislative body to override a judicial decision.  

2. Changing the appointment system to allow the ruling party to have a greater say in the appointment of judges.  Currently, judges are appointed by a judicial selection committee that includes representatives  from the Knesset, the Israeli  bar association and the judiciary.  Levin has proposed changing the numbers so that the politicians have the greatest say over who gets appointed to the country's highest bench.

3.  Cancelling the concept of "reasonableness" as a grounds for judicial review of a particular governmental decision. This has been a part of Israeli jurisprudence since the 1950s, though there is a reasonable argument that the use of "reasonableness" as a grounds for judicial review of governmental decisions was greatly expanded much later in Israel's history, without a legislative initiative to create a foundation for this jurisprudential expansion. Unlike Canada or the U.S. - or many other countries- Israel does not have a written constitution.  Judges do rely on the common law, including principles from other countries - and sometimes principles of Jewish law - to ground their decisions. 

4.   Ensuring that "legal advisors" appointed to advise the government are essentially government agents,  appointed by the particular government in power - rather than independent legal advisors.  Essentially, the idea here is that any decisions made about ongoing judicial issues - will be made in a way that is consistent with the government of the day's particular aims.

The timing of this press conference was particular troubling.  It has been described by some commentators as placing a "loaded gun" on the table, next to the Supreme Court, just before the hearing starts.  The Court was about to commence its hearing - that involved questions of reasonableness and judicial review - and here was Levin telling the Court that he was about to take away the Court's power to review decisions on either of these grounds.  When combined with Levin's tone, which I would describe as generally threatening, the overall picture was a major threat to the independence of the judiciary in Israel.  Quite frankly, the scene reminded me of a scene in one of the Batman movies, where the villain is announcing  his plan to take over the world.  

Of course that is an exaggeration (I hope).  I am not saying that none of these  proposed reforms have any legitimacy.  In some of the cases, there is definitely room for discussion and change.  For example, there is a reasonable argument that judges should not be appointing other judges.  After all, the judges might be inclined to appoint judges who agree with their viewpoints exclusively.

There is also quite a  bit of room for a discussion about the limits of "reasonableness" as a ground for challenging a government decision.  If the proposed  judicial review of an enacted law or a governmental action is grounded in the  violation of another law - or a the violation of a general principle of the common law, it may well be appropriate.  But if the Court has the power to determine that a governmental action is simply "not reasonable," that can  be highly problematic.

But even though there is plenty of room for discussion about judicial change, this government is  not proposing a dialogue.  Instead, it is quite clearly threatening to reduce the power of the Court drastically.  It is announcing a plan to limit the power of the Court to reign  in governmental action (legislative and  executive).  On the eve of a key Supreme Court hearing involving these very questions, the government is threatening to install its own judges, take away the power of the judges to judicially review decisions, give the government the  power to override  the decisions in any event - and appoint legal advisors who will simply help the  government to do whatever it wants.

When viewed as an overall package - in the context of  the appointment of a recently convicted criminal as a Minister in the government - and while the Prime Minister is struggling to extricate himself from his own criminal proceedings, this package of "reforms" and the timing of the announcement can only be viewed as a noxious proposal to disembowel the  Supreme Court  of Israel and enable the present government  with its 64-56 majority to pass just about any law it  chooses to promulgate.   

The hearing proceeded on Thursday before a panel of 11 Supreme Court judges.  As a Canadian lawyer (and someone who has passed all  of the Israeli bar exams but not been called to the bar in Israel), I find these types of proceedings incredibly interesting.  We heard all kinds of arguments, biting questions from the judges to counsel from all sides and blistering arguments.  Ultimately, the case was reserved and we await the decision of the  judges.  It is unclear when the decision will be released.  It could be  sometime this week, it could take many more weeks - it could even  be months, though I am sure the judges appreciate the urgency and importance  of the decision.

If the judges decide to rule  that Deri cannot serve as a Minister,  the current government  will almost certainly exercise the "nuclear  option."  They will pass the "override  law" and then pass a law to override the Court's decision.   The "override law" itself and possibly the subsequent piece  of legislation, would then make their way to the Supreme Court for a hearing.  This is the definition of a constitutional -legal crisis - as it would involve a tug of  war between the  legislative and judicial branches of government without any clear document that spells out how these disputes are to be resolved.  

On the  other hand, if the  Court  rules that  Deri can serve as  a Minister and it decides not to intervene, it will be, in my view, a sign that the Court has been browbeaten  into submission by Levin's hearing-  eve threats. The  Court may decide that if it refuses to get  involved, it will forestall, temporarily or  permanently, the further attacks on the Court's authority.  It is far from clear that this tactic will work.

In the Israel version of "Meet the Press," which was broadcast Saturday night after Shabbat, several panelists appeared to discuss  these matters.  Some of the strongest opponents of  Levin's proposals included former Chief Justice Aharon  Barak  and former Minister of  Finance Avigdor Lieberman.  Barak stated that these proposals were an  unquestionable attempt to weaken democracy in Israel and  called  for Israelis  to protest in every legal way possible.  He warned that if these changes were implemented, Israel's legal system would start to look  like the systems in Hungary, Turkey and, eventually, Russia.  Lieberman stated that  Netanyahu was behind all of  these changes, which were all intended to lay the groundwork for Netanyahu to end his own legal proceedings.

To his credit,  Levin himself showed up on TV  and  gave a spirited defence of his proposals, which he stated that he has been planning for more than 20 years.   He was happy to take on any questions.  The only questions he  dodged were about the "next steps" in his plan - which was especially troubling since he had stated earlier that these four initiatives were only his first step.

As I mentioned above, there are some reasonable arguments over some of the proposed changes and  Levin did a good  job in presenting those defences.  But, ultimately, the take-away, even  from Levin's well-rehearsed appearance, was that since the voters elected this government, it  should be able to do whatever it wants and not worry about  judicial scrutiny.   While Levin calls this  a "strengthening of democracy," it is really a recipe  for "tyranny  of the  majority"  and a demonstration of why democratic, rule of law countries require a constitution  and  a robust judicial system.  It is the courts that act as a backstop to uphold the rule of  law and to protect the rights of each individual in a society, including those who are most powerless.  Without any kind of judicial safeguards, it is frightening  to imagine  what  laws might be enacted, especially by a government that is beholden to several extremist parties with high ranking  ministerial positions.  Unfortunately, we may soon find out.

The new Netanyahu government is not only planning to set its sights on the judicial system.  Another proposal that has been floated, though not yet formally proposed, is to close  some of Israel's public broadcasters.  Many commentators  have argued that this is an effort to minimize governmental criticism and is a blatant attack on freedom of the  press.  As one of the Meet the Press  commentators pointed  out this evening, the government is starting with attacks on the press and the judiciary - which are generally the two major sources of criticism  and  accountability for any particular government.

For some, alarm bells are sounding everywhere  and  the fire has already started.  For others, there is still a "wait and see" component, with a hopefulness that  cooler heads will prevail.   The organization "Free Israel" held a major demonstration  in Tel-Aviv tonight (which several of my friends attended) and there is every reason  to believe that the number  and size of  demonstrations will  continue to increase as this government begins  to enact increasingly questionable laws.

I do believe that the Supreme Court's decision on the Deri law and the reaction to it will be a  major milestone.  If the Court overrides the Deri appointment, which many expect,  we are likely to see this relatively localized fire turn into a five-alarm blaze.   I am not sure what will happen next, though some Israelis are hoping that there are some more moderate Likud members who might start to think about putting the interests of the country above the  interest of keeping Netanyahu in power  at all  possible costs.

September 2022: Political Comments, Wineries, Sports, Festivals and General Notes

I am a bit behind getting to my blog but I thought I would throw this one together to comment on a few different  issues.  Maybe I will put together one more just before Rosh Hashanah, which is quickly approaching.

Israeli Politics

Firstly, what  could one of my blogs be without at least some comments on Israeli politics?  As you might know, we have yet another election scheduled - for November 1, 2022.  Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops  trying to get himself back into power.  I would say it is going to be very close. According to a few different recent Israeli polls, here is an approximate estimate of where things stand in terms of projected seats by party (poll predictions):

Likud: (Party of Former Prime Minister Netanyahu):           31-33 seats

Yesh Atid (Party of current Interim Prime Minister Lapid):  22-24

National Unity (Party led by Benny Gantz):                         12-13

Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi (eastern) Party:                        8-10

Labor (Left wing "workers" party, led by Merav Micaeli):     5

United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkanazi party):      7

Yisrael Beytenu (Led by Lieberman):                                        5-6

Religious Zionist Party (Ultra Nationlist - Smotrich/Ben Gvir)  10-13

Meretz (Far left, secularist party):                                            5

Joint List (Arab parties, largely anti-Zionist):                          5-6

Ra'am (Arab party, led by Monsour Abbas):                            4

So if we add all that up - by looking at who could  go with who, we get something like this:  

Netanyahu (Likud), together with the two ultra-Orthodox parties and the RZP is running at 56 to 63.  Obviously, if these parties could put together 63 seats, they would form a far-right wing, narrow government though it would probably be relatively stable for the next 2-3 years.  This would be a government of vengence in my view, which would immediately try to change the law in several areas, especially in the area of religious-secular issues in Israel, budgeting (especially for Orthodox and  Ultra-Orthodox groups) and extensive increased settlement building.  This type of government would try to "roll back" any changes that had been made over the past two years by the current government and would do everything it could to assist Netanyahu in getting out of his legal  problems.

If they fall short of 61, they will try to convince Ganz and his "National Unity" Party to join the government.  Given that Gantz's party could have 10-12 seats, it is definitely a possibility that this could happen though it is unclear who would go first as Prime Minister and what Netanyahu would have to promise Gantz to get him to join the government.  Nevertheless, I don't rule this out especially since Gantz has shown  in the past that he  is prepared to make deals with Netanyahu.  One  would assume that the inclusion of Gantz would moderate the government somewhat but it would still be a very right-leaning government.

On the other side of the ledger, Lapid's "bloc" is running at between 49 and 53, without Ra'am.  If we add back in Ra'am - that would get them to between 53 and 57, still not enough to form a government.  This group would need to make a deal with one or both of the Ultra-Orthodox parties, which seems quite unlikely.  It doesn't look like there are any other potential participants.

Given these numbers, it is possible that there will be another stalemate and that this might finally force Netanyahu to consider resigning from the leadership of the Likud party.  But I wouldn't bet on this.  Unless something dramatically changes, it looks like Israel is heading for some type of right wing government, either with the participation of Gantz's party  or without.  Lapid and his potential coalition partners would all need a big change in the  polling  numbers to be in a position to form a government.  As of right now, that seems unlikely.

I will watch the polls and see if anything interesting develops but with less than two months to go - this is where things seem to be headed.

Israeli TV and Sports

As you may know, the fourth season of Fauda is out and has been airing on Israeli TV, one episode at a time.  The grand finale will be next Wednesday, September 14, 2022.  After that, I understand it will be released worldwide on Netflix.  So if you are a Fauda fan, this season will surely keep you riveted to the screen.  "Fauda" means chaos in Arabic.  This show is definitely chaotic.  Violent, pressure-packed, intense and dramatic, it makes for some very compelling TV.  I would say that the the fourth season has been  one of the best though we are still waiting for the  culminating  episode.

The big news in Sports here in Israel is that the Maccabi Haifa soccer team made it into the European "Champions League."  That is a very big deal for European  and Israeli football (soccer) fans.   Next week, Paris St Germaine will be playing a home game in Haifa - which means that soccer superstar Lionel Messi, among others, will be arriving in Israel for a game.  This is really a huge sports event here and tickets are very hard to come by.  I have no plans to go in person but I will probably jump on the bandwagon and watch it on TV.  Expectations are not very high for Maccabi Haifa against such strong international competition.  But just being there is a big accomplishment for the Haifa squad.

As a Torontonion, on the other hand, I am very excited about the Toronto  Blue Jays this year, who have an excellent (though often inconsistent) baseball team.  When in Israel, this means watching games from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. (or sometimes longer).  About 20 games left to go in the regular season and the Blue Jays are still in a playoff spot, so I may be keeping strange hours in the coming weeks.  Also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills, who play their season  opener tonight and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who begin the season in about a month.  All of this means keeping a semblance of Toronto hours, while here in Israel - not an easy feat.

A quick musical mention - a blast from the past - the "Counting Crows" are playing  in Ra'anana at the Ra'anana ampitheatre next week.  Not sure I will make it to that but it sounds like it could be fun.  I might go see Tamir Grinburg instead,  winner of last year's "Rising Star" competition on Israeli reality TV.

On my recent  trip back to Israel, on Air Canada, I watched a few Israeli movies on the plane.  Nothing too memorable, but it is worth mentioning that if you look for  these movies in the entertainment system, they are available.

Worthwhile Sight  Seeing Mentions

We  took a few trips  recently to places that we had been to in the past but seemed worth visiting again.  

Photo #3

In late July, we  arranged a tour of the Israeli Supreme Court.  This is a fascinating tour, filled with all kinds of interesting information on the details of the building itself, the history and  role  of the Israeli Supreme Court, and a chance to watch some live proceedings.  It can be arranged in English or  many other  languages - and it is free.  Obviously this is a sight of very high interest for lawyers from around the world, but I think many other people  would also enjoy visiting.

Last week, we  went for a tour of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament  building.  This is also quite an interesting  tour, which takes about 1.5 hours.  It is free and  can be arranged in English, Hebrew or several other languages.  Like the tour of the Supreme  Court it includes quite a bit of information on the history of the Knesset, the building itself, the Israeli political system and other interesting tidbits.  We had a terrific guide and really enjoyed the tour.

I have included pictures  of the Chagall Art that adorns the Main Knesset entrance and reception hall area.  We spent a significant of time looking at and discussing  these photos.

While in the Knesset, we happen to see a number of current Knesset members wandering around.  One of them was Ayelet Shaked.  Several visitors were stopping her to ask for a picture.  We  didn't.  According to current  polls, Shaked and her  party are unlikely to make it to the Knesset this  time around but she  is still actively campaigning.

Photo #1 (on the  Left)

Photo #2 (Middle)

  

Summer in Israel also features several interesting events and  festivals.  On the liquid refreshment side of things, there are three that I would like to mention.

Each year, the Israeli Museum in Jerusalem holds an annual Wine festival.   It is an outdoor festival at the Israeli Museum grounds, with beautiful views of Jerusalem.  It is usually held in July or August, generally after Tisha B'Av.   There are about 30-40 wineries in attendance.  Guests pay a set admission (120 Shequels this year - or about $40  USD) and receive a wine  glass that they can take  home at the end of the evening.   Guests can then wander around and taste wines from any of  the  different  wineries.   No additional  charges for the wine, though some of the wineries run out of their better wines  early in the evening.  There are also food kiosks selling a wide range  of items - cheese plates, pizza, baked potatoes, sushi.  The festival also includes live music and there was a really fun band playing a wide range of music  - from classic 70s rock to 80s and 90s pop music - to current Israeli music.  On the day  we attended, the band even  played a medley of Jewish Hora music.  Lots of fun.  Our whole family attended and everyone  had a really fun time.  (As crazy as it sounds, everyone is now old enough to drink alcohol legally....)

Next week, there is a Coffee festival in Tel-Aviv, which promises to showcase  more than 50 different  coffee  vendors.  Not sure how much coffee I can drink in one evening - and how long I might have to stay up afterwards until all of that caffeine wears off.  But I suppose, getting back to my sports comments, if there is a baseball or football game to be watched after the event, it may not be so bad.

There is also a beer festival coming up with more than 50 breweries.  I'm not that much of a beer connaisseur but it might still be a fun event.

Israeli Wineries

Speaking of wine, we managed to visit a few wineries over the past few months.

One was "Harei Galil" - the Galil  Mountain Winery.  This winery is in northern Israel, very close  to the Syrian  border.  The winery sits atop a mountain and the visitor's centre provides a beautiful view.  The visitor centre staff were  very friendly.  We arranged a tasting  of six different wines, accompanied by a plate of cheeses, grapes, apricots, dates, olives, breads and other  goodies, all strictly Kosher and  all quite tasty.   The wine itself was nice though not compelling enough for us to load up  with purchases.  Galil is one of Israel's largest wineries, producing more than 1.2 million bottles  a year.  They have some  very nice  high end wines as well as some drinkable mid-range offerings.  It is a beautiful visitor's centre and well worth a stop

Nearby, we also stopped  at one of my favourites, the Dalton  Winery, which produces some delicious wine.  We arrived a bit late so we had a choice of standing  at the bar and tasting whatever they poured us for free - or sitting  down  and ordering a set tasting.  Since  we were running a bit late, we opted  for the bar tasting.  The staff were very friendly and  helpful and poured us a variety of  tastings.  Here we couldn't resist buying  a few bottles though the prices were not really any better than the prices in Israeli wine shops.

We also visited the Tulip Winery which is another  one  of our favourites.  The Tulip Winery invests in and supports a community of adults with special needs, many of whom also work at the winery.  For that reason alone, it is one of  my favourites to visit and support.  We  opted for a 6-7 wine tasting package which also came with a nice selection of fruit, cheeses, breads and other goodies.  Like at the other wineries, the staff were very helpful and friendly.  We sat outdoors on high bar chairs.  It was quite warm but they had fans set up so it was comfortable.  

I will also mention that we visited the Ella Valley  Winery which is much  closer to the  Jerusalem area - located in the Judean Hills.  The tasting here was somewhat  less organized.  We  were served some olives with our wine.  Most of the wines we tasted were not particularly good.  Our guide  was friendly and fun - but not very experienced or  knowledgeable.  We  weren't able to taste the higher  end wines.  Not sure  we will be running  back to this winery for a visit though I have had some Ella  wines that I have quite enjoyed  over the years.

Maybe I am saving the last for the best.  Not far from Ella is the Tzora Winery.  Tzora is more of a boutique winery, which primarily produces  blended wines.  But their wines are all outstanding.  The visitors' centre is beautiful.  We have been there a few times.  On  our most recent vist, we were able to taste 5 or 6 wines and were provided with a wonderful cheese, bread and olive oil platter.  Everyone we were with enjoyed all of the wines.  Of  all the Israeli wineries we have visited, from a taste and experience  point of view, this is definitely one  of the best.

There are somewhere around  300 wineries now in Israel, so this is only a very  small sampling.  We  have probably been to close  to 50 of them but  still a long  way to go.  For any guests who are planning to visit -  we are happy to try and get  to as many  of the  remaining 250 as possible,  although we have visited many of the really good ones so we may have to go back for seconds  to some of those places.

Random Closing Thoughts

With the approach of another Jewish  New Year, Rosh Hashanah,  in just a few weeks, I think I would say  by way of sizing things up that the "State of the Nation is Strong."  Okay, I know I have  stolen that phrase, but I think it is true.   Israel has all kinds  of challenges, including Religious-Secular tensions, serious external threats as well  as sporadic terrorist attacks, ever  increasing cost of living and a variety of other types of tension.  But Israeli recently ranked #9 on a World  Happiness Index, which is quite an accomplishment.  That put Israel higher than Canada or the United States (#16  and  18 respectively).

Sometimes, it can feel like living in a powder keg, not knowing  if hostilities will break out any moment with Gaza, with the Palestinians,  with Hezbollah or with some other party.   And things will  not  really be truly peaceful  here unless and until we  can reach some type of resolution with the Palestinians.  But  Israel has come quite far since its founding more than 74 years ago and certainly seems like  a more stable, prosperous, vibrant - and yes even peaceful place than it  was  in the first  40-50 years of its existence.  Hopefully  we  will soon  find a way to address some of these outstanding  issues and ensure long term peace and stability.

If I  don't  get a chance to write before the holidays, I wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year - Shana Tova u'Metukah.

New Sheriff In Town - Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is Israel's New Prime Minister

It is a very historic day for Israel.   After 12 years under the leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel is swearing in a new government - a "change coalition" made up of 8 different political parties - with members ranging from the far right to the far left.  The different parties all signed off on a coalition deal on Friday afternoon, clearing the way for today's swearing in ceremony.

The first order of business for the Knesset was to hear speeches from a range  of speakers - the leaders of the different parties - of both the outgoing government and the incoming administration.  The designated order was that Naftali Bennett, the incoming Prime Minister would speak first, followed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, the outgoing Prime Minister.

Bennett was invited to go first.  He had prepared a very carefully written speech - professional, conciliatory, stately and dignified.  But Netanyahu's supporters had other plans.  They had apparently decided that they would use every possible method to disrupt the  speech.  They hurled insults, abusive language and consistently disrupted the speech.  The House Speaker, who himself is a handpicked Netanyahu designate, had no choice but to start warning Knesset members that he would throw them out of the Knesset if they continued.  Soon he had to start ordering the removal of various Knesset members from the Religious Zionist Party, the Likud Party and the Ultra-Religious parties.  Frankly, it was embarrassing, childish and highly inappropriate.  At least 5 or 6 Knesset members had to be forcibly removed because they couldn't follow the basic decorum of listening to a speech from a political opponent.  One Israeli commentator said that it was as if those who had stormed the Capital in the U.S.  were actually the congress members and senators inside the Knesset.  It was simply disgraceful.

Bennett's speech was disrupted several times but he still managed to give it.  He thanked Netanyahu for his years of service and for many positive accomplishments.  But he also spoke about the  urgency of doing things differently, of working with people with opposing viewpoints, and of addressing many urgent issues facing the country.  He promised to try and work on behalf of all Israelis, even those who opposed him.  He mentioned that Israel may have disagreements with the United States on some issues - but he promised to work with the United States administration respectfully and work to return to a situation where support for Israel is bi-partisan in the U.S.  rather than partisan.  He laid out some of the government's proposed platforms and he introduced by name all of the incoming cabinet members.  He ended his speech by reciting the "prayer for the State of Israel" which is recited in synagogues around the world.  It was an emotional moment.

Yair Lapid was supposed to speak next.  After watching all of the disruption, he  decided to cut his speech short.  He stood up and said that he had  brought his 87 year old mother to Jerusalem (she rarely comes to Jerusalem) to see how a peaceful transition of power works in Israel, a country that did not exist when she was born.  He said she told him that she was simply embarrassed by the behaviour of the opposition Knesset members but she also said  - that this conduct by Netanyahu's supporters in the Knesset demonstrated why a change of government was so urgently needed.  Lapid said that was all  he was going to say at this time and he sat down.

Next it was Netanyahu's turn.  He was allotted the longest time  period as the outgoing Prime Minister.  Netanyahu began his speech, shockingly, by quoting the  lead prosecutor  in the 1961 trial of Adolf Eichmann  and claiming that he was standing here on behalf of the "millions" (in Netanyahu's case - the "millions" who had voted for him but would not have him as a leader).  This was an outrageous misuse of historical context - to suggest that the incoming government was a horrible and tragic event on the scale of the Holocaust.  

Netanyahu then proceeded with a review of the many accomplishments of his government, for which he took all of the credit personally.  Some  of this review was partially accurate, some was slanted and some was outright misleading.  For example, he noted that Israel is in a far better security situation today than it was 12 years ago.  That is probably true.  He claimed that his government had dramatically decreased the "gaps" and "inequalities" in Israeli society.  That is patently false.  He claimed that his government did more than any previous Israeli government to support the Arab Israeli community.  That is questionable and probably not accurate, even though at times the Netanyahu government invested significant amounts in certain Arab communities.  His tone was combative, irascible and condescending.  This was only the first part of the speech and just the beginning.   

For the second part, Netanyahu switched to a litany of attacks on the incoming government and, in particular, on Bennett personally.  This part of the speech was simply a page from the Trump playbook.  He insulted, derided and castigated his political opponents and this deal to create the new government in particular.  He used nicknames to make fun of certain Knesset members.  He stated that "unlike what has taken place in some places, he is not challenging the legitimacy of the actual ballots - they were counted properly."  But he is challenging the fraudulent misuse of the ballots by Bennett - who took right wing ballots and turned them improperly into a left wing government. He quoted Arnold Scwarznegger stating "I'll be back" and promised that it would be a lot quicker than anyone  expects.  He did not wish the new government success or provide any kind words for the incoming government or any of its members.  Instead, he simply promised to bring down the government as quickly as possible, with "God's help."  I can't say this speech was unexpected though I think some were a bit surprised at the complete lack of any hint of statesmanship or professionalism.  

There was then a break for a few hours.  During this time, the tv commentators reviewed and assessed both speeches.  Even the right wing commentators were somewhat taken aback at the conduct of the disruptive Knesset members during Bennett's speech.  In the meantime, Bennett announced plans to go to the Kotel for a special blessing after being sworn in.  At the same time, the Religious Zionist party and the Ultra Orthodox parties announced organized demonstrations at the Kotel and special prayers for the "downfall of the government."  We can clearly see that there will be rocky times ahead and it will be fascinating to see if this new government can hold things together.

There are definitely several concerns about the new government.  It is comprised of far right wing parties, far left wing parties, centrist parties along with an Arab Israeli party.  They will have lots of disagreements and they only have a razor thin margin of 61-59 to run the country.  If two Knesset members defect, the government will collapse.

Furthermore, there are genuine and legitimate complaints about the incoming Prime Minister Bennett.  His party only had 6 seats.  He had promised his voters, in writing, that he would not join a government with Lapid, even a rotation government.  He also promised that he would not sit in a government that worked with the Arab parties.  Many of his supporters are understandably upset and I can see that there was no reason that he should have been so unequivocal with his promises if he had no intention of keeping them.  In short, it is true that he  deceived his voters.

At the same time, most politicians tend to make all sorts of promises that they are often unable to keep.  Netanyahu also made a list of promises and broke many of them.  Bennett has insisted that, overall, the deal he has made involves a variety of compromises, all with a view to the best interests of the country at this point in time.  I think many Israelis will be prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least for some period of time.

Changing Of the Speaker of the House

After a significant delay, the Knesset was recalled for the next order of business - the vote for a new speaker of the house.  The vote was held and Mickey Levy of the Yesh Atid party won with 67  votes (61 required for a majority).  For a bit, the outcome was uncertain, but in the end  the candidate of the change coalition was elected the new speaker of the house.  The outgoing speaker, Yariv Levine, in contrast to Netanyahu, was statesmanlike and professional.  He wished Levy the best of luck, shook his hand and said a few words about his own departure.  It was a welcome change of tone.

Voting in the New Government

Shortly afterwards, the full Knesset was invited to vote on the new government.  There was some tension since the government is being implemented with a  61-59 majority.   No wiggle room at all.  As the votes came in, there were 3 initial abstentions.  The vote sat at 60-56.   The speaker, of  course, only votes in the event of a tie.  The speaker asked if there were any missing votes.  Three Arab members changed their votes from "abstain" to against and the vote was now 60-59.  But that was it.  The vote was called and the speaker announced that Naftali Bennett is Israel's new Prime Minister.

Swearing In of the Ministers

The final step was the swearing in of the Prime Minister and the cabinet ministers.  Each person comes up and repeats, according to a set formula - which starts with "I, (full name), the son or daughter of (full name) and then either "may he/she live many more years in good health" or "of blessed memory" followed by the other parent's name.  It is incredibly emotional.  Some of the ministers were lucky to have parents and family members in attendance.  Others thought of their deceased parent or other family members as they took the oath and mentioned their names.  The cabinet features a wide range of members from 8 different parties.  Some of these parties have not been a part of any Israeli government for many years.  It was quite a sight.

Conclusions for Now

In some parts of Israel, people are celebrating, especially in Tel-Aviv.  There are many Israelis hoping that this new government will usher in a wide range of changes in many different areas.  Other Israelis are extremely upset and are planning to hold demonstrations, prayer gatherings and other events calling for the end to this government.

This  new government contains a large number of "right wing" members.  I don't expect things to change very much with respect to relations with the Palestinians in the very near future.  I would say that there is somewhat of a consensus on some of the issues in dispute - and  some of the policies that Netanyahu has promulgated.  For example, no Israeli government is going to be interested in negotiating the status of Jerusalem, discussing the settlement of Palestinian refugees in Israel or even negotiating a Palestinian state in the current climate.  There may, however, be more of an openness to meet and try to restart some negotiations on these and other issues with a view to trying to resolve some or all of the ongoing conflict with Palestinians.

The real change, however, is that this government is  the first one in a number of years without the two ultra-orthodox parties.  That may well prove to be the biggest element of change in the "change" government  Suddenly, the  budget might change and religious educational institutions that do not support mandatory military recruitment may start finding themselves with significantly reduced budgets.  Bennett promised to take away the monopoly over Kashrut from the Ultra-Orthodox and provide a wider range of options for Kashrut observers.  There may well be a range of positive changes in Israeli society that affect gender equality, education, the environment and many other areas, all of which can be tackled without having to appease ultra-religious interests.  

I really can't predict whether this government will be  able to hold up and if so, how long it might last.  The deal has been signed as a four year deal.  But with a such a thin margin, it seems unlikely that this government will make it through the full four year term.  But I suppose that is going to depend on what kind of priorities the government tackles and whether its actions are viewed favourably by the Israeli public, or at least a large part of it.

I do maintain and believe that there is a significant likelihood that we will see a much higher level of public discourse, respect within the government, cooperation, trust and a resolve to act in the public interest - all of which will be very different from the legacy that Netanyahu is leaving behind, particularly over the course of his final few years of this term in office.

Another Election Update: Complete Craziness Here - and Other News

With less than one week to go for Prime Minister Netanyahu to form a  government, things are getting completely crazy here politically.  Netanyahu's chances of forming a government seem to be slipping away.  But not without a major struggle.  Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops to try to retain power.

It seems like he has a string of increasingly radical moves lined up - right up until the last minute next week when he will either succeed in forming a government with his final moves (whatever they might be) or one of the other two alternatives will win out - either a new replacement government or a fifth consecutive election.

Last week, Netanyahu started to see that his chances of forming a 61 seat coalition were looking grim.  He is trying to pull together two far right wing parties - Yamina and the Religious Zionist party and mix those parties with two ultra-Orthodox parties - and then have that whole package supported by the 5 seats of an Islamic Fundamentalist Arab party.  The Religious Zionist party has balked at the idea and has held a number of press conferences at which they have spewed anti-Arab rhetoric  and stated that they will not enter a government that is supported in any way, shape or form by any of the  Arab  parties.  Meanwhile, the Arab party, Ra'am, has naturally called on Bibi to reign in the rhetoric of his racist cohorts if he is really hoping to get  Ra'am support.

So Bibi came up with a new plan.  He decided he would call for a two track election system with a separate election for the position of Prime Minister  Obviously, this is an attempt to create a U.S. style President with separate executive powers and to  circumvent  Israel's current system.  As any constitutional student would realize, it doesn't mesh at all with a Parliamentary democracy.  It is a different governing system.  So, essentially, Bibi's position is - "if I can't win - we have to change the system so that I can."  One would have thought that this would be dismissed out  of hand, especially since it was tried and failed in Israel in the past.  But since Bibi only needs 61 votes to  get a proposal like this passed, he is pushing it as hard as he can.

Some of the actual changes that have been proposed are even more ridiculous.  The "Prime Minister" could be elected with only 40% of the vote.  He would then instantly have all of the powers of a sitting Prime Minister rather than an interim one - even if he could not cobble together 61 seats.  Further, under Bibi's plan (as presented by Aryeh Deri, the former fraud convict and current leader of the Ultra-Religious Shas party), the winning Prime Minister would instantly get 12 additional seats in the Knesset as a bonus for winning the 40%.  Taking everything into account, this is essentially a plan that one might see presented by Putin or Erdogan.  The problem is that Bibi only needs a bare majority to pass the plan and the issue is whether he can pay off or horse trade with enough members to get this proposal through.  So far, the leader of Yamina, Naftali Bennett, has said he would not support it but the possibility of Bennett changing his mind cannot be ruled out.

Seeing that his "direct election" plan did  not seem to be working out, Bibi upped the stakes.  Earlier today, he proposed that a Bibi loyalist, Ofir Akunis, be named to be the Justice Minister, a position that has been sitting vacant since the government collapsed (leading to the election).  Contrary to Parliamentary and cabinet procedure, he did not provide advance notice of intention to put forward a candidate.  Contrary to the current coalition deal with the Blue and White party, which is in place until a government is formed, he presented a Likud candidate instead of a Blue and White candidate (as required by the coalition deal).  And contrary to the Supreme Court's stated guidelines, he did not recuse himself from being involved in the appointment of a Justice Minister while he is in the midst of an ongoing trial.  

The Attorney General noted that this was an illegal nomination, an illegal vote and an illegal procedure.  Bibi effectively stated that he didn't care and demanded that a vote be held.  The vote was a tie which meant  that he could not proceed.  In lightning speed, the matter arrived at the Supreme Court  of Israel by the evening and will be heard  in greater detail tomorrow and perhaps even shown on live TV.  The Supreme Court does not want to wade into political decisions but Bibi's actions, by all counts, are a clear attack on the rule of law.  Not that he or his party are strangers to this type of attack.  After the last election, one of Bibi's henchmen, Yuli Edelstein, locked up the Knesset to avoid a vote which would have replaced the speaker of the house.  Even then, the Supreme Court was reluctant to interfere.  Some commentators have suggested that this is all part of a plan by Bibi to get the Supreme Court to rule against him so that he can run a populist campaign against the Supreme Court in the next election.  Does that sound familiar to anyone across the ocean? *Late Addendum - added at 1 p.m.  Israel time on April 28, 2021 - Netanyahu has now agreed to back off and allow Blue and White to continue to hold the Justice Minister position - his announcement came just three hours before the Supreme Court was scheduled to being the hearing.

Given the manner in which Bibi has been escalating his tactics, it is hard to predict what he  might try between now and May  4, 2021.  This week, he offered  to allow either Gideon Saar (leader of the New Hope Party and one of the most virulent anti-Bibi Knesset members) or Naftali Bennett (leader of Yamina) to go first in a two-year coalition deal.  His condition is that he would stay in the  Prime Minister's house and be called the "alternate Prime Minister" while some else  "officially" fills the role.  We don't know what else he has requested as part of these offers but his demands are bound to be significant.  Neither Bennett nor Saar have rejected the proposals outright but even if Bennett were to agree, Netanyahu could still be short of the 61 that he needs.

So all in all, it is fair to say that things are extremely volatile, unpredictable and, definitely, new and unique, even for Israeli politics.  That being said, it seems likely that things will go in one of three directions by May 4th.  If Bibi can come up with the right mix of promises, threats, payoffs, carrots and sticks, he might still form a government by the deadline.  I don't think we can rule it out yet.  It seems that he will need to convince Gideon  Saar or some of his New Hope party members to bend and join Netanyahu.  That would cause Bennett to join as well and would create a government.  But Saar has sworn up and down, over and  over, that  he wouldn't join Bibi.  So it will take quite a lot.  I think this is still in the 40% range, perhaps now a bit less.

On the other hand, Bennett, Saar and Lapid are actively negotiating to try and form an alternate "unity government" made  up of parties across the political spectrum.   They have many challenges, which is inevitable when one tries to combine such a disparate range of political philosophies.  From the far left, egalitarian, anti-nationalist Meretz party to the far right, extremely nationalist, religious Yamina party, held together by centrist Lapid of the Yesh Atid party.  And  this coalition might only have 57 seats unless they can recruit an Arab party or an ultra religious party.  It looks like a tall order to get to 61.  I'm still not convinced that the chance of this group forming a government is higher than 30 to 35%.  

And if you do the math, that leaves us with a 25-30% chance of another election, at least according to this prognosticator.  But we should know by May 4th or  shortly thereafter.  If it is to be a fifth election, it may be in August or September.  Perhaps by then, a greater number of Israelis living abroad will be  able to travel to Israel to participate in the vote.  For the last election, ballot stations were actually set up in the  Ben Gurion airport so that Israelis could arrive at the airport and vote before heading  off to a  quarantine.

Covid Update

As you probably know, things have been opening up everywhere here based on the use of a vaccination certificate system.  Concert venues, inside and  outside, restaurants, malls, sports events - everything is almost back to normal, for those with Green Certificates, at least.  But is it just a lull?  We are hearing of significant challenges now coming from the "Indian Variant" which may be impervious to the Pfizer  vaccine.  If a variant arrives in Israel that can  beat the vaccine, we may wind up heading back to square one - after a period of ostensible normalcy.  So far, Israel is still pushing ahead with plans to allow for international tourism (for vaccinated tourists only of  course), a resumption of the Birthright  Program and an expansion of flights, outbound and incoming.  But we really can't  say how long this "golden period" will actually last.  Hopefully, in Israel and the rest of the world, the vaccine will help turn things around in a lasting way.

Heat Wave and Upcoming  Holidays

As you might have seen - we reached temperatures of more than 40C last  week - more than 100F and it was only April.  Fortunately, things have cooled off somewhat and the weather is actually quite  nice now.  People are arranging their Lag B'Omer bonfires for Thursday night and planning their all night study sessions for the holiday of Shavuot which is 17 days after Lag Ba'Omer.  We are picking out our best Blintz and Cheesecake recipes and figuring out how we will best observe the Chag.  We may have to visit a winery or two between now and then to find some nice White or Rose wines that could best accompany our  anticipated dairy bonanza.

Board  Games

I don't mention it that  often  in this  blog - but as many of you might know, I have a hobby of collecting, teaching and playing a wide range of board games.  One of my future projects (hopefully sooner rather than later) is to design one myself.  These are complex strategy games - "Euro games" as they are often  called that include game categories such as worker  placement, territory control, engine building, and economic decision making.  They are rarely winner  take  all games but are won by the player who has amassed the highest point total.   Given that I have been here for such a long stint, I have found a few reliable partners - who are quickly becoming equally addicted.  Recently we have managed to play three fantastic games - Viticulture (which is all about developing and  running your  own winery), Brass Birmingham (an economic  game  set  in 19th century England) and Barrage (a  worker placement/economic game in which players build dams and try to control water  flow and develop energy).  These are all terrific games - so if anyone is looking for something fun to do when spending extra time at home - these games will all give your brain quite a workout.  Israel has a Facebook group called "Unbored  with Board Games" which has more than 10,000 members - who trade tips about different games, buy and  sell used games and arrange meet ups with each other.  So if you thought  board game playing was now a dead or non-existent past time - I think these numbers strongly suggest otherwise.  Board game playing is especially common among Shabbat observant families since most of these games can be played on a Saturday afternoon without violating any of the rules of Shabbat.  

That's about it for  now - waiting for the political fireworks here in Israel over the next  week or  so and wishing everyone the best of health!