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| Inside Israeli Election Station |
The Flight
We flew from Toronto on Air Canada to Vienna. We had a scheduled 1 hour 45 minute changeover in Austria. Since it was all on an Air Canada ticket - we were able to send our luggage straight through (yes we checked bags - there are many things that are considerably cheaper in Canada than in Israel - still...). Our flight was about 1 hour and 10 minutes ahead of schedule - so we even had time to visit the Austrian Airlines lounge in Vienna. It wasn't bad - but nothing super exciting.
The flight from Vienna to Tel-Aviv was packed with Israelis eager to get home and vote. The flight was smooth and on-time - but I have to say that on this route - Austrian is competing with the low-cost airlines rather than the standards airlines.
The seats do not recline at all. Food and drinks are only available for payment - even coffee - goes for 5 Euros a cup. On the other hand - it is only a three hour flight. It left on time and arrived on time - and we landed safely (okay there was a very loud thud when we landed....) but we arrived - in time to vote.
We had been concerned that the government would try to close the airport - or come up with some reason to delay flights - or that something else would happen. But we made it. We had lots of time to stop at home, drop off our stuff, and then head over to the polling station.
Voting
In Israel - election day is a national holiday. The trains and intercity buses are free for the day so that people can get to their designated polling booth. Outside the polling booth - there were representatives of the various campaigns - playing music, singing songs, and sitting at booths - available to answer questions. It wasn't a pressure campaign of any kind just an atmosphere of celebrating election day.
There was no line up or wait of any kind in Ra'anana - which, as it turned out, saw approximately 71.5% of its eligible voters show up to the polls. That was a bit lower than some of the nearby cities - Herzliyah, Hod Hasharon, Ramat Hasharon - some of which were closer to 80%.
In Israel, when you show up at the polling station, you show your ID to a panel of three or four supervisors - who each review it and check you off the list. You then receive an empty blue envelope.
You go into the voting booth - and inside the booth - you have a huge box with various compartments - each with pieces of paper with different party names on each piece. You pick the piece of paper with the name of the party that you want to vote for and you put it in the envelope and then seal it. If you put a blank piece of paper (an available option) or no piece of paper - or multiple pieces - your ballot is officially spoiled.
You then go and stand in front of the three supervisors and put your sealed envelope into the big blue voting box. And that's it - you are done.
No filling in circles - or other format that would enable quick electronic counting. In fact the system is a system that probably could have been used several hundred years ago - and the post election counting continues to take just as long.
As a sidebar - I have to note that the system in Canada, by contrast, was an easy, effective modern system. You get your ballot, you fill it in the circle for the candidate (or party) that you would like to elect, you put it into an envelope and then deposit it into a computerized ballot counting system. You therefore have an efficient way of counting ballots and a way to recount - if required.
My vote in Toronto didn't help the disastrous results for the Toronto Jewish community - since the City of Toronto re-elected a mayor who is extremely antagonistic towards Israel and towards the Jewish community in Toronto - which is very unfortunate. I received the results while I was on the airplane flying from Toronto to Vienna. But this is all a big digression.
Waiting for the Results
People in Israel are glued to their TVs or computers at 10 p.m. when the polls close. But they do not start getting real results. Instead the various national networks release exit poll results - and the "experts" start analyzing the results of the election based on these exit polls - which, over the years, have become increasingly inaccurate. There are also four different TV stations releasing four different sets of results. One station, Channel 14 (think Fox News in the US), released a poll showing that Bibi had won 31 seats and that his government would get to 61 seats overall. All of the others put the Likud at closer to 23-26 and estimated that the Likud Bloc would get to 52-55 seats, short of the 61 needed to form a government.
We watched for a while - and I think it was only after 12:30 a.m. that actual real results started appearing.
The various leaders all gave speeches - but of course - the speeches are all based on scant information and incomplete results. Nevertheless, each party leader seemed to claim victory of sorts, culminating in Bibi speaking at about 3:45 a.m. and, of course, claiming victory.
The Actual Results
And now - what you have been waiting for - the actual results - based on more than 95% of the counted votes.
Out of 120 seats in the Knesset - 5,641,300 votes counted out of a total of 5,695,682 total ballots (including a large chunk of spoiled ballots)
Government Bloc
Likud: 27
Yehadut Hatorah (Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox): 7
Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power - far right Ben-Gvir Party): 7
Hatzionit Hadatit (Religious Zionist Party - far right Smotrich): 6
Shas (Sephardi Ultra-Orthodox): 6
Total Likud Bloc: 53 seats.
This leaves the current government 8 seats short of being able to form a government with a total loss of 14 seats from their position at dissolution of the Knesset and 11 less than the number they won in the 2022 election.
Opposition Bloc
Yashar (Eisenkot - Centre Right): 21
B'Yachad (Bennett/Lapid - Centre Right) 12
The Democrats (Left - Golan): 8
Israel our home (Centre Right - Lieberman): 7
Total Opposition Bloc: 48
Quite disappointing for the opposition bloc - which had been forecast to be in the range of 53-55. Poor showing, relative to expectations, for just about every constituent bloc member.
Arab Parties
Ra'am (led by Monsour Abbas - Conservative, Muslim party - but willing to work with Zionist parties): 8
Joint List (A combination of parties including communists and avowed anti-Zionist members): 11 seats
Total Arab Parties: 19
Very significant results for the Arab parties - which are now in a position to have significant influence over the future government. The big winners of this election - measured by the improvement in position.
Specific Areas:
Before I get into my interpretation of what all of this means - and in case you are wondering about how regional the results are in Israel - here is a snapshot of a few different places in Israel:
1. Ra'anana:
In Israel - the political map uses Red for the opposition, Blue of the Likud-led government - and different shades for different mixtures Ra'anana was a shade of red - though the "least red" of the Sharon region cities. 65% of voters supported the opposition bloc, while 35% supported the government. Eisenkot received 26.5% of the vote, Bennett 20.6% and Bibi 18.6%. The surrounding cities of Hod Hasharon, Ramat Hasharon and Herzliyah received closer to 75-80% opposition support.
2. Tel Aviv:
Nearly 76% opposition, nearly 24% government support.
3. Rehovot
52% opposition, 48% government.
4. Netanya
59% government, 41% opposition
5. Jerusalem
75% government, 25% opposition. 37% of all voters voted for the two ultra-religious parties.
6. Beer Sheva
63% government, 37% opposition.
7. Kiryat Eqron
75% government, 25% opposition
As you can see, the political map is divided on a very regional basis - much like the U.S. map - even though Israel is a relatively small country. Rehovot is the closest to being considered a "bell weather" area - split almost evenly between the different blocs.
What Does all of this Mean?
At the time of writing, it is unclear what is now going to happen. Going into the election, if you read my previous blog, you would recall - that I did estimate that a "stalemate" was the mostly likely result - at 50% plus. For now - this looks like a stalemate. However, it can also be a bit like trying to solve a Rubik's cube. There are various alternatives out there - if the various constituent members want to form a government. I am going to run through some of this now.
1. Options for Bibi
Even though Prime Minister Netanyahu has won the plurality of seats - a total of 27 seats - which is more than any other party - he lost 5 seats compared to the 2022 elections. More importantly, his coalition members also lost seats. Shas went from 11 to 6. Overall, Bib's coalition went from 64 to 53.
The real challenge is that Bibi, almost certainly cannot simply add parties from the opposition to this existing right wing coalition. None of the current opposition parties are likely to join it. So what options does Bibi have?
A. "Rag the Puck" - and Wait for New Elections
This is almost certainly Bibi's preferred strategy - since these results are very disappointing for his coalition. It could have been worse, for sure. He could have lost outright and the the opposition could have gotten to 61. That would have been a complete disaster for Bibi.
The President of Israel, Yitzchak Herzog - will push for a "unity government" in which Bibi joins and /or leads a government with some or all of the opposition parties. But the only way that this could occur would be if Bibi were to abandon some or all of his coalition partners - the far right - and the ultra-orthodox and this seems unlikely. Part of the reason is that this would damage his chances for the next election. A "unity government" would almost certainly be fragile. As soon as it collapses a new election would be scheduled and if Bibi had abandoned his allies - he would have even bigger problems for a next round. So I do believe that his preferred strategy will be Trumpian - attack the legitimacy of the elections (as of the time of writing he has already started doing this), vilify the elected Arab Knesset members (he has started doing this) and claim that he will agree to a "unity" government if the opposition parties will simply join his governing coalition. They will not do so - which means that the best option for Bibi will be to do everything to force another election - while making it look like it was not his preferred goal.
B. A True Unity Government
There is probably some kind of constellation in which Bibi and his Likud party could try to create a genuine "Unity Coalition." However, Bibi would not be able to take all of this partners into this type of government - and he would need to make genuine, significant concessions. This could include agreeing to a National Commissions of Inquiry to investigate the events of October 7 (Bibi really opposes this), a law enlisting all of the Ultra-Orthodox or virtually all to the army (Bibi opposes this because of the political fallout), a law freezing the "Judicial reform", and other possible laws. Moreover, Bibi would need to install several of the Opposition Knesset members as Ministers in his cabinet.
Of course the elephant in the room - is that this type of unity government would not cancel or end Bibi's trial or assist him with it. Unless a pardon - was a term of the unity government.
Israeli politics can be very unpredictable so I do not think we can rule anything out at this time. But if Bibi decides that this his best route for preserving what is left of his legacy, ending his trial and making the best deal possible - this could be an option. Overall, I am betting against it.
C. Some Crazier Options
i. Work with the Arab Parties
With 53 seats, theoretically, Bibi could make a deal with Ra'am, the Arab party that joined a Bennett led government. Ra'am leader Monsour Abbas is a very practical leader - and with the right offer, he might consider a deal. The problem is that Bibi's coalition partners, in particular Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are very unlikely to agree to a coalition with any Arab party members. I am not sure that Bibi could pressure them into joining or that he would even try.
ii. Resign in Exchange for a Pardon
As crazy as its sounds, Bibi might calculate that this is the time to make his exit - even though he won 26 seats - and cut a deal with the President and the Prosecution - whereby he could get out of his criminal proceedings, leave politics and free his Likud party - to make a deal with some of the opposition members. Sounds crazy - but see my comments above.
Overall, given Bibi's level of hubris, I believe that he will do everything he can to push for a new election, while trying to make it look like it wasn't his fault.
That is all Bibi's side of the equation. However, given the numbers, he is not really in the driver's seat at this point.
2. Options for the Opposition:
Eisenkot and the opposition parties - suffered a significant defeat, especially when compared to their anticipated results. With only 48 seats, they are not in a great position to form a government. But they do have some interesting options - especially since this is, after all, Israeli politics.
A. Propose a Genuine Unity Government
As discussed above, this is not a preferred option for Bibi. But perhaps there is some kind of proposal that the opposition can make - that will serve different purposes. First of all, if it is a genuine compromise proposal - it could benefit the interests of the majority of Israelis and create some level of stability If the proposal fails - the fact that it was made, in good faith, could help the opposition in the next election. This type of proposal would have to include an enlistment law for the ultra-orthodox, together with a law that reduces funding for institutions that do not teach secular subjects, significant ministries for the various opposition leaders, perhaps a pardon for Bibi and the end of the government led attacks on the judicial system. First of all, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to convince all of the opposition parties to join this type of government. For example, I don't think that the Democrats would join under just about any conditions. Further it seems unlikely that Bibi would agree. Though perhaps the dangled pardon would be incentive he needs.
B. Entice the Ultra-Orthodox to Join
This one sounds strange as well. But there are 13 ultra-orthodox MKs. If they suddenly joined the opposition, that would bring the opposition to 61 seats. In my view, neither the Haredim nor the Opposition are likely to agree to this. Golan and Lieberman are strongly opposed to making any concessions to the ultra-religious and all of the opposition parties ran on promising an "enlistment law." The Haredim could not join without significant concessions. They are certainly willing to make deals that will preserve their sources of funding and power. They have done so in the past with left wing governments in Israel. However, at this point, the gap between the opposition and the Haredim seems unbridgeable to me.
C. A deal with the Arab Parties
This is starting to look like the opposition's best strategy. There are significant challenges here. Eight of the Arab MKs, lead by Mounsour Abbas - are willing to support Israel as a Jewish, Zionist state. Abbas has served in the government previously - with Bennett. Even though Lieberman, Bennett, and Eisenkot have also said that they would not sit with Abbas, I believe that they probably would. However, even with Abbas' eight seats, that would only take Eisenkot to 56, still five seats short. So he would then either need to add on an ultra orthodox party, some Likud members, some Joint List members - or Smotrich or Ben Gvir.
Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir have sworn that they will not sit with any Arabs - even Abbas. And the opposition members would not really want to set with Ben Gvir or Smotrich either. Though some opposition members - Lieberman and Bennett perhaps - might prefer Smotrich and Ben-Gvir over Abbas.
The ultra-orthodox are a wild card and might join for the right promises - but the opposition members do not want to make those promises.
So that still leaves the opposition short by 5 seats.
The Joint List has 11 seats. But these members included communists, pro-Hamas, Pro-PLO members. Some of them are outright antagonistic towards the state. Effectively, they are worse than having the Bloc Quebecois as part of a National Government in Canada. So there are all kinds of problems with this idea.
It would be politically disastrous for the opposition bloc for the next elections - and it would be politically unpalatable, even for members within the opposition (other than Yair Golan perhaps).
And it could endanger Israel's security.
So an outright deal, that allows the opposition to form a government with the Arab parties seems unrealistic and unlikely.
D. A Partial Deal with the Arab Parties
This is starting to look like a very real possibility. The Knesset could be sworn in and could start passing laws - with the support of more than 61 members of the Knesset - even without having a formal government in place. Not sure how this would work yet - but the first step would be voting to replace the current speaker of the house, the interim Prime Minister - and perhaps to pass a number of other laws - for example - setting up a National Commissions, putting in place and enlistment law, passing certain budget bills.
It is hard to say what this will do. It might send some opposition supporters to the right - for the coming elections - and may hand the Likud a victory the next time around. Or it may give hope to many people who felt that their votes were being ignored and could create a sea change in Israeli politics.
There would be all kinds of uncertainty here, and this type of government is not likely to last very long. I think the opposition members are going to need to think very carefully about how they approach this. But it is starting to look like a serious option that we may see over the coming months.
iii. Options for the Arab Parties
The two big voting blocs of Arab parties received their largest number of seats ever (so much for the arguments about Israel as an "apartheid state.") But that still leaves the question - what can they do with this support? Can they translate it into real political gains?
A. Options for Ra'am
Ra'am is led by Monsour Abbas, a Muslim Israeli, a licensed dentist, fluent in Arabic, English and Hebrew - and a very skilled politician. His party enlisted a Jewish Israeli as its number 2 candidate in this year's election - and he sat in the Bennett government in the past- and by all accounts made significant contributions.
Ra'am and its supporters would like to participate fully in the political process and are willing to make deals with the opposition parties and /or even the government coalition.
Certainly there are elements in several parties - both the government and the opposition - that would like to avoid any kind of deal with Arab Knesset members - especially after October 7.
But I think the majority of opposition members will view Ra'am as a legitimate partner and will view Abbas as a stable, helpful ally for forming a government.
I believe that Abbas will push for Ra'am to be involved either directly or indirectly in any new government led by the opposition and that he may well wind up being a Minister in any such government - whether now or as a result of some future election.
The challenge is that even with Abbas, the opposition still does not have enough to form a government.
B. Options for the Joint List
Several of the Joint List members, as I have discussed above, are anti-Zionist, anti-Israel Knesset members. As a result, they do not want to serve in government - even if they could do so. Some of them are in politics to try and bring about the demise of the state of Israel. Much like BQ members in Canada, it would obviously be impractical, politically suicidal and unstable to rely on these members.
However, the Joint List has said that its goal would be to help the opposition get rid of Bibi's government and might support various laws - even without being part of the government. In other words, there could be some sort of minority government, supported externally by the Joint List - that could get the government to 61+ seats on most issues.
This could benefit Arab Israelis across the country - who could get significant benefits from supporting the government - as a condition of their support. This could be very interesting for a period of time.
Conclusion
I could leave all of this blank - since I believe I have gone through most of the possibilities but I am not in a position to make predictions yet. My main prediction - is that Bibi will do his best to push for new elections, keep his role as interim Prime Minister - and attack the opposition and the Arab Israeli community at every opportunity as illegitimate and disloyal.
However, since his coalition lost the election, he may not be able to have his way - especially if Eisenkot turns out to be tougher politically than Benny Gantz was. This remains to be seen.
Other Comments
The weather is beautiful here - 27C (about 81F) and sunny. Air Canada is expected to start flying direct to Tel-Aviv from Toronto on November 30, 2026 (let's see if that happens).
Baseball season is over (I stayed up very late to watch the Brewers win the World Series - it was the only game I saw). Interestingly, the Israeli TV stations broadcast NFL football, NBA basketball and NHL hockey - but no baseball generally. So I had to stream it.
We are of course in the month of "Mar Heshvan" - the "bitter" month of Heshvan which has no holidays or celebrations - so I guess that means it is the opportunity to get lots of work done. But for a political news junkie like me - we have several weeks of fascinating Israeli news coming up, the American mid-terms on Tuesday - and the very fragile situation here in the Middle East.
I will write more soon - but I wanted to get this out with some thoughts and analysis of where we are at now. I note that there are all kinds of people circulating false, misleading information - or trying to twist the results into something that they are not. My hope is that this analysis is all perceived as a reasonably objective analysis of the actual situation and what is likely to happen - rather than a propaganda column of the type that some well known bloggers are spreading (I won't name names).
As usual, I am happy to discuss all of this or respond to comments. Stay tuned for interesting, surprising and perhaps very unexpected developments.
