As well - there are no real "long weekend" holidays - the equivalent of Victoria Day in Canada or Memorial Day in the US, or Labour Day or the August Long Weekend ("Simcoe Day" in Ontario.
That's not to say Israel has a shortage of holidays - we have lots. But most of them are Jewish Holy Days - which for observant people - mean no work, no travelling, no commerce etc., So these days are not "free holidays" - the way that people in other countries enjoy days off. One day that is close is Yom Haatzmaut - Israel's Independence Day - where people often get together for barbecues or visits to some of Israel's national parks. Another time period is the two periods of Hol-Hamoed - during Sukkot and during Pesach, when many Israelis have time off. Parenthetically, many Israelis, especially non-observant Israelis, travel out of the country during those periods of time. Others travel within Israel, which means the roads and highways are completely jammed.
In a way, none of this affects me directly, since my work is primarily Canada based - so I can be off on Labour Day and Sundays, even though these are regular work days for most other Israelis. The Jewish Holy Days can be more of a challenge - but that was the case even while I was in Toronto - and for anyone observing these Holy Days outside of Israel. It is certainly easier in years like this when some of the major holy days fall on weekends.
We plan to make the most of the Labour Day holiday tomorrow - and take a drive up north - towards the Golan Heights. Perhaps a winery or two is in our future, perhaps a bee farm - where we might pick up some honey for the upcoming holidays -and perhaps an olive oil production factory. Or maybe we will stop at a chocolate producer. It might be a bit hot for walk in a national park - but there are some really great ones in northern Israel.
Upcoming Elections
We are in overdrive with election news here in Israel. Even though the election is not scheduled to take place until October 27th, there is a huge date coming up this week on Wednesday - the date by which all parties have to finalize their candidate lists. Watching the news unfold - feels like watching the quarter-finals or semi-finals of a sports tournament - so many things going on.
There is a fairly short explanation for this. There are currently 16 parties listed as having a chance to make it into the Knesset. Right now only 12 of these parties are projected to make it, based on current polls. Parties need 3.25% to get into the Knesset - at which point they start off with 4 seats (in the 120 member Knesset). If they don't make it - their votes all get wasted and redistributed, proportionately, among those that have made it in.
This means that the parties that are close to or below the threshold are negotiating furiously to find options that would get them into the Knesset through amalgamation - or other deals. Alternatively, if the picture looks really bad - some of these parties will have to decide whether to fold and not run.
I will write more about all of this once everything has closed and the final slates are in - but here are a view interesting pieces of information and a few comments on each of the main parties running now.
The Likud
The current governing party - the Likud, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is running at between 19 and 22 seats in most polls - other than Channel 14 (A Fox-type pro-Bibi station) which has the Likud at 31. These polls also project Likud being able to secure between 47 and 53 coalition members, which is well short of the 61 needed to form a government. There is still lots of time - but there is no question that Bibi is starting to panic looking at these numbers.
Last Sunday night - he gave one of his first interviews in a long time - and came with up his latest spin on the horrifying events of October 7, 2026. Bibi says "I was asleep when the various military personnel met at 3 a.m. that day (3 hours before the attacks started). They were scared to wake me up because they were worried that I would launch massive counterattacks immediately and throw the whole Mideast into turmoil." He softly denied that he was promoting a conspiracy theory but of course claimed that everyone had failed - the army, the intelligence, the secret services, - everyone except Bibi.
Later in the week, his office released his schedule and it is quite clear that he received full updates at about 625 a.m. when the attacks began. No one really knows (at this point) what Bibi did between 6:30 and 10 a.m. but he did not speak with the army commander until approximately 10 a.m. Hardly the schedule of someone who would "spring into action" at the first sign of any problems.
Coupled with this, Netanyahu's wife Sara had been on TV for an interview a day earlier - and she basically suggested that Yair Golan, the leader of the Democratic Party (in Israel) (Not affiliated in any way with the US Democrats) had known about the attacks ahead of time and already had his uniform on and arrived at the massacre site very early in the day to join in the fighting. In fact she wondered why Golan knew what was going on and was already fighting while her husband was still asleep and wasn't informed. (It is indeed a funny sort of conspiracy allegation to suggest that Golan knew about the pending attack in advance - but would also be one of the first people to go and risk his life to stop it. Doesn't sound like a great plan to me).
I won't spend too much time on this - other than to say that Golan received calls starting at 6:30 a.m. - went and put on a uniform and arranged to get weapons and headed down to the Gaza area as quickly as he could. The people he went with are credited with saving more than 125 people. He put his life in danger, unquestionably - to go and try to save Israelis and defend the country. The suggestion that he knew about the attacks in advance is simply unhinged and provides much more information about Sara Netanyahu's mental state than it does about Golan.
Golan promptly issued a libel warning to Sara Netanyahu - with a demand that she issue a full apology within 24 hours. Sara Netanyahu refused and I believe that Golan will now sue her as he has threatened. He has threatened to sue for one million shequels and donate the proceeds to he victims of the October 7, 2023 attacks. From a legal point of view - it looks like a slam dunk case to me. She has no immunity since she is not a Knesset member, the allegations are clearly malicious and they are false. Her supporters have claimed that she didn't actually suggest that there was a conspiracy - but I do not think any judges would buy that defence. Of course Sara, a convicted felon (for fraud and other financial improprieties) is no stranger to defending lawsuits. Aside from her criminal matters, she has had a rash of lawsuits from former employees - mostly alleging torts like intentional infliction of emotional distress, abusive treatment and failure to comply with employment laws.
In any case, this is apparently the Netanyahu game plan for dealing with the events of October 7, 2023 - avoid taking responsibility, suggest a left-wing conspiracy, and launch all kinds of personal attacks on others with a whole range of attack ads aimed at the various opposition members claiming that they are "enemies of the state."
I guess it remains to be seen whether Israelis will buy all of this. Hopefully not.
Yashar
This is a party led by former IDF General Gadi Eisenkot, which is running on more of a centrist platform (okay - right-centre really). The party's name means "straight" or "straightforward" and one of the key elements of the platform is an explicit (and sometimes implicit) attack on the corruption of the current coalition. Eisenkot's party is polling at between 21 and 25 seats. In most polls, it is ahead of the Likud, which would give it the first opportunity to build a government coalition. Currently, even with all of its potential coalition allies, it is only polling at between 55 and 58 seats. That would put them at 3 to 6 seats short of being able to form a government. One option would be to cut a deal with one or more of the three ultra-nationalist parties. This is possible but unlikely since there would be such a wide diversity of views on so many issues. Another possibility is that they could form a government with one of the ultra-religious parties. Again this seems unlikely since neither Eisenkot nor his other coalition members seem ready or willing to give the ultra-religious what they are seeking. A third possibility is another government with Monsour Abbas and his Ra'am party (like the government that Bennett formed when he was Prime Minister). Although the various coalition members are claiming that they will not do this - I think that this option is something that is quite possible - if Yashar gets 57-60 seats.
Yachad
Yachad is a coalition made up of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former short serving Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Although Bennett himself describes himself as a religious right wing observant Jew, he states that the most important thing is forming a proper government - even if that means compromising with others. There was talk that the party might join up with Yashar - and create one big party. They still have until Wednesday to do that, but it is looking unlikely. Apparently, they commissioned some huge polls and found that by combining, they might even lose votes compared to their current numbers. The party released its election list today - and it is comprised of almost 50% women (perhaps the highest percentage of women candidates of any party) with a range of accomplished, highly qualified candidates. Bennett has been travelling around the country meeting voters and discussing with them his party, its policy and positions.
Many voters he meets with are very upset with Bennett. In the last round of elections, he promised in writing not to form a government with the Arab party Ra'am. After the elections, he changed his position - at least in part because he saw that there was no other viable option to form a government and without a deal - there would be another election.
Over the past few weeks - the Yachad numbers seem to be going up and are currently at 11 to 15.
The Far Right
Israel now has three ultra-right wing parties running. These are religious Zionist parties - that seem to share the view that the only way to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is to annex all of the territory, expel all of the Palestinians (with payments or forcibly) and, eventually, rebuild the third Temple in Jerusalem (after destroying the Mosque of course..).
Otzma Yehudit
One party, Otzma Yehudit - Jewish power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is polling at between 6 and 9 seats. Ben Gvir is an extreme populist - who has been serving as the Minister of National Security in the current Likud led government. Ben-Gvir is a gentleman with a prison record for incitement, a history of being a disciple of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane and someone who the army would not take because he was too extreme. Needless to say, he is responsible for allowing, explicitly or implicitly, the various attacks on Palestinian Arabs that have been taking place in Yehuda and Shomron.
As you might have heard, U.S. Ambassador Huckabee, the most pro-Israel ambassador ever, recently describe these attacks as terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators to be arrested.
Ben-Gvir recently added Tali Gottlieb to his party, who crossed over from the Likud party after failing to secure a high enough spot for herself in the recent Likud primaries.
Some commentators have indicate that Ben-Gvir and his party could get as many as 12-15 seats. This would be quite frightening in my view.
Religious Zionist Party
This party is led by Bezalel Smotrich - who previously ran with Ben-Gvir. He has been serving as Israel's Finance Minister - and has made all kind of notorious statements and claims over the course of his term.
Up until last week, he was polling at less than 3% and facing political wilderness. He joined up with the Zehut (Identity) party led by Moshe Faglin and is now polling at 5 to 6 seats. It is still possible that this party will fail to make it over the finish line but that remains to be seen.
Your Nation Israel
The newest entry to the Israeli political circus is a new party called "Your Nation Israel" led by Ofer Vinter, a former Israeli General, without an extensive political background - but with extensive military experience. One of the fascinating things is that Vinter signed up Arab Israeli Joseph Haddad as his number two candidate. Haddad is an Arab Israeli who has served in the Israeli army and is well known for his active "hasbara" efforts on behalf of Israel. Some Rabbis have complained publicly about Vinter having an Arab Israeli in such a high position in his party. Others have flooded him with support. This alone differentiates him from the other two ultra-right wing parties - though I note, for what it is worth, that Haddad is a Christian Arab and not a Muslim Arab.
Netanyahu is pleading and begging with Vinter to join up with Smotrich's party or with Ben-Gvir to ensure that the votes are not wasted. Vinter's party is currently polling at 5 to 6 seats but Netanyahu believes that either Vinter's party or Smotrich's party will fail to pass the threshold which would harm the Netanyahu bloc's chances.
In my view, it is within the realm of possibility that Vinter could actually join Eisenkot - if there were no other options. Vinter has denied that this could happen - but we are talking about Israeli politics of course - everything is possible.
Overall, these three ultra-nationalist parties are polling at 15-20 seats combined - which is a huge number. A government that might be made up of Likud plus these folks plus the ultra-religious parties - would create an enormous danger for the continued existence of Israel as a liberal democracy and could move the country even further along the path towards a religious state - like Türkiye or even worse.
The Democrats
This is the party led by Yair Golan that was formerly made up of the left-wing worker oriented Labour party (the party of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres) and the far left party Meretz - which focused on equality, secularism and a political compromise with the Palestinians. The Meretz party was devasted in the last elections with Meretz failing to make it past the threshold and the Labour party emerging as a shadow of its former self. Led by Golan, the Democrats rebranded themselves, merged the two parties and are now polling at 8 to 11 seats.
Golan was a senior military figure and he is tough as nails. He is a reserve Major General. When he first heard of the outbreak of the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023, he sprang into action - even though he was a retired officer - and headed down to the Gaza area to join the fighting and try to save lives.
Golan is viewed by some on the right as fairly extreme. He is a supporter of full Arab participation in Israeli governments, a two-state solution and full equality for all people in the State of Israel. He has been known to make some statements at times that have been viewed as extreme by many on the political right.
However, ultimately, he has impeccable military credentials and is in favour of a strong, democratic, Jewish state, with equal rights for all citizens. He is the most likely of all the candidates to stick to his principles and refuse to make a deal with Netanyahu. There is a also a good chance that he will achieve a higher number of seats than currently projected.
Yisrael Beitenu
The Yisrael Beitenu Party (Israel, Our Home), led by Avigdor Liberman is polling at between 7 and 10 seats. This is also a fairly right wing party, heavily supported by Israeli Russian expatriates, but one that is dedicated to separating the state from much of the religious legal framework that now envelopes the State. Liberman and his party favour full conscription for all military aged Israelis (including Arab citizens and the ultra-religious), full access to civil marriage for everyone (including the LGBT community) and a weakening of many different religious laws generally - including those that apply to Kashrut and Shabbat across the country. More than anything else, Liberman would like to see an Israeli government that does not include the large ultra-orthodox parties. Liberman himself has extensive political experience and views himself as a possible Prime Minister as part of a coalition deal. He will almost certainly agree to form a government with Eisenkot and Bennett and is very unlikely to join a government led by Netanyahu.
The Ultra-Religious
There are two major ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ). I am not going to discuss them at length but I do have a few comments.
Shas
Shas is made up of primarily Sephardi ultra-orthodox supporters - and is led by convicted felon and fraudster Aryeh De'eri - who has been serving as a Minister in Netanyahu's current government. They are polling at 7 to 10 seats and are likely to be in the government only if Netanyahu can win again. Then again, if they are facing the political wilderness, they might make a deal with other parties for the right amount of money. They would rather secure funding for their Yeshivas and other institutions than face four years of greatly reduced funding. De'eri does know how to make all sorts of deals - which also include terms that are to his own personal benefit. For now, they are one of the parties that Netanyahu can really count on - if he has any chance to form a government.
UTJ
This is the ultra-orthodox, anti-Zionist, anti army party - supported by those who live in ultra-religious strongholds in Jerusalem, B'nei Brak and parts of Beit Shemesh. They are also polling at 7 or 8 consistently (since their supporters vote for whomever their rabbis tell them to vote for).
They are strongly in the Netanyahu camp and very unlikely to support any other leader or party. Then again, for the right amount of money....
But don't worry, no other parties are about to offer them the money and deal it would take to leave Netanyahu.
RA'AM
One of the most interesting parties - this is an Arab Muslim party that was originally fundamentalist in outlook. The Ra'am party leader Monsour Abbas decided that he would like his party to become involved in Israeli politics in a direct way. This culminated in him joining the Bennett government - and Abbas becoming a Minister in that government.
Many on Israel's right - oppose Abbas and his party and claim that he has not been clear enough in denouncing Hamas. They argue that the inclusion of Abbas in an Israeli government endangers Israel.
There is no suggestion that Abbas did anything, while serving in the Bennett government, that warrants this criticism.
Most recently, Abbas announced that he had come to agreement with a Jewish Zionist politician, former head of the Police services in Israel, Yoav Segalovitz, to join his party and run as number 2 on his list. This is fascinating. Perhaps the first time in Israel's history that a Jewish Zionist has joined an Arab Muslim led party - with a view to changing the country.
Some Arab Israelis oppose the inclusion of Segalovitz in the party - but they are being assured by Abbas that this is an appropriate move. Some Israelis oppose the move by Segalovitz and question his loyalty. Still others wonder if this is some sort of trick by Abbas to make his party more palatable as a coalition partner.
I have heard Abbas many times on TV (he speaks fluent Hebrew of course and English) and, in my view, he seems like quite a decent guy - sincere, and committed to some kind of long-term solution for Muslims and Jews in Israel. Abbas is a trained Dentist with a degree from Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has also completed some of the work towards his Masters Degree in political science from the University of Haifa.
Ra'am is running at 4 to 6 seats currently and would like to join the next government. A Bibi-led coalition is unlikely to make a deal with Ra'am. Some of the opposition parties have said that they will not make an agreement with Ra'am either, but I think that we cannot rule out this possibility.
Other Arab Parties
There are three other Arab parties that run together as the combined "Joint List." Generally, these are anti-Zionist, communist, Muslim parties that are not interested or willing to join a Zionist-led government - unlike the Ra'am party, which publicly accepts that Israel is a Jewish State. The Joint list is currently polling at 7 to 9 seats. Party members can and will certainly vote on different bills - which could include bills to dissolve the Knesset. But unless there is a tremendous sea change - including a change in some of their views - they are unlikely to play a role in any near term Israeli governing coalition.
There you have it - that is my wrap up of the current state of political affairs - as of three days before the lists close. I will try to write again on Wednesday night or Thursday -once the list deadline passes but before Rosh Hashanah but that might be difficult given the timing.
Final Word on Israeli Politics
There is lots of time between now and October 27th, 2026. I think there are still three strong possibilities and we cannot rule any of them out. One possibility is, essentially, a stalemate. If no coalition can form a government of 61 - we may face additional rounds of election or we might see some sort of surprise compromise - with either some ultra-religious, some ultra-nationalist (Vinter?) or the Ra'am party helping to form a government. The anti-Netanyahu coalition may wind up being the winners of a stalemate.
If Netanyahu and his current coalition members can get past 61 - we can expect more of the same - and perhaps even harder right policies. The various coalition members, who are all to the right of Netanyahu or seem to be, are committed to attacking the current judicial system, enhancing executive power, continuing to move Israel towards a path towards annexation of Judea and Samaria, exempting the ultra-religious from the army and attacking equality in various ways and forms, procedurally and substantively, across the country.
If the anti-Likud coalition can get past 61 seats and form a government, Israel could see quite a huge number of changes, especially on a wide range of domestic policy issues - and possibly in its approach to foreign policy issues as well. I believe it would be a far less corrupt government - with policies that would ultimately be more representative of the country as a whole.
Other Notes
Israeli TV has spent a fair bit of time over the past few days speaking about the US-Canada trade dispute.
The tone from the Israeli press - I think - is trepidation. Israeli reporters are wondering what it is that has made Trump so intent on attacking Canada - one of the U.S.'s closest long standing allies, with the largest shared border in the world. If this is how Trump treats his "friends" - what is going to happen to us?
If Trump would rather spend his time getting the US to cosy up to Türkiye, Qatar, Russia and other very questionable regimes - while attacking and alienating long term allies of the US in Europe, Canada and other places around the world - what does that mean for the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship? Especially since Bibi banked completely on Trump and the Republicans and turned the U.S.-Israel relationship into a partisan issue in the US.
Of course, it is not that Israelis are feeling warm and fuzzy about Canada's current government. The current Liberal government led by Prime Minister Carney is probably the most anti-Israeli government in Canada's history. These policies have almost certainly played a role in the outbreak of anti-Semitic attacks across the country including attacks on synagogues, Jewish schools, Jewish owned stores and restaurants and, of course, universities across Canada.
Toronto looks like it is on a path to re-electing an extremely anti-Israeli, and probably anti-Semitic mayor, which is really frightening for a city with such a large Jewish population that used to feel safe in the City.
But despite the situation in Canada, I think Israelis are really starting to wonder whether such a close relationship with Trump will wind up benefiting the country in the long run. Maybe they are even starting to wonder about the medium term.
Sports
Interestingly, Israeli TV networks do tend to show lots of NFL games, regular season and playoffs and lots of NHL playoff games. But almost no baseball. I think the average Israeli figures it is simply too boring - especially without having grown up with the sport.
I am admittedly somewhat of a bandwagon jumper myself, but I have been on the bandwagon for a while now - since the Blue Jays started to play reasonably well early last year. It was a devastating game 7 World Series loss - and this season has not lived up to expectations.
But despite all of that, the Blue Jays have fought themselves back to 0.500 baseball and a tie for the last wild card spot. So the remaining 19 games will be super meaningful - and I will have to watch them by streaming them with a VPN - at some very inconvenient times.
Today's Labour Day game is at a reasonably convenient time - so that helps.
Conclusion
We are gearing up for Rosh Hashanah, which, as you may know, starts on Friday night the 11th.
One of those years in which you will have to go to Shul on the second day if you want to hear the Shofar - since the first day is Shabbat.
One of our family members will be in Toronto running an auxiliary service. Another will be in the U.S. So it will be fairly quiet here for us for Rosh Hashanah. For Yom Kippur we will be leading tefillot here in Ra'anana - our kehillah seems to be in the range of 30 to 50 people - with a community break-fast at the end of the fast (after I blow the Shofar...).
Wishing everyone a meaningful, happy, healthy and successful New Year and hoping that I have time to update at least some of this political news later this week. If you are not too interested in all of this domestic Israeli politics - sorry about that - but my blogs between now and late November (it may take 30 days for anyone to form a government in Israel after the elections) are likely to include lots of political news.
