Israeli Election Primer 1 - 2026

We are at 14 days before the next Israeli election - which will be held on October 27, 2026.  I thought it was about time that I put together a bit of an election primer - with some comments about what to expect, some peculiarities of voting in Israel - and some other election related comments.  So if you are not interested in reading about the upcoming Israeli elections - this may not be the blog for you. 

I have written blogs about the Israeli system, the parties and the way things work before past elections but I thought I should review some of that again - since it can be very confusing.

1. The Basics

As you may know, the Israeli electoral system is a parliamentary democracy - much like Canada or the UK or some other European countries.  Unlike Canada, the U.S. and the UK, there are no "districts."  The election is based solely on popular vote - one person one vote - and the Knesset seats are distributed in proportion to the voting percentages.  

There are 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament - the "Knesset" - so each 1% of the national vote -would mean 1.2 seats in the Knesset.

Israel has a minimum threshold, which is currently set at 3.25%.  This means that if a party runs and gets less than 3.25% of the popular vote - the votes are redistributed among the other parties - in proportion to the other results.  If a party gets just over the 3.25%, they automatically get 4 seats in the Knesset, the minimum number.

In order to form a government, you need to either win 61 seats in a general election (which has never happened in Israel's history) or you need to cobble together a coalition of parties that adds up to 61 seats.  Unlike Canada or the UK, you cannot really run the government with a "minority" government.  Since the government must secure the confidence of the Knesset to put its cabinet in place, pass legislation, appoint Ministers etc., groups must be able to show an agreement with at least 61 seats in a coalition bloc.

A government or a governing coalition can stay in power for up to 4 years - or until the government collapses - whichever comes first.  Many governments collapse before the full 4-year term - since it is often difficult to hold a wide range of parties and their interests together for a lengthy period of time.

The current Israeli government, which is the 25th Knesset but apparently the 37th government in Israel's 76 year history has a coalition made up of 67 or 68 MKs (there is one MK who votes with the government but is not necessarily still part of it at this point).  The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has 32 of those seats.  The current coalition is made up of two ultra-religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) and two "far-right" parties - Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) (Ben-Gvir) and the Religious Zionist Party (Smotrich).

This current governing coalition managed to stay in power for its full terms and the elections are taking place because the four year time period will have passed.

2. A few more Basics - Okay - Advanced Basics

Since Israel uses a proportional representation voting system, it is very easy to put together a party and start running.  It is not as easy to get into the Knesset since you need 3.25% of the national vote to get in.  But that does not deter many people from running.  There are apparently about 37 registered parties this time around but realistically - there are between 11 and 13 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset.  There are another 4 parties or so - that think they can make it in but do not seem to be getting those results in any published polls.

You must vote in person in Israel - on the day of the elections. So you must be physically in the country and, of course, be an Israeli citizen, if you would like to vote. Only posted overseas diplomats and military personnel can vote by advance or absentee ballot.

Israel uses its own unique ballot system.  Once your identity is properly verified (by an independent panel representing different parties) - you go into the polling booth and pick out a small piece of paper that has the initials of the party that you would like to vote for printed on it. In other words, there is a big box with compartments in each voting booth filled with different slips, organized by party.  You put one of them in the envelope, seal it and deposit it into the ballot box.

It takes a very long time to get the results!  Unlike Canada or the U.S., the Israeli polling stations do not release results on an ongoing basis.  Apparently, the ballots are counted and then forwarded on to another station. The results are not released "in real time" that evening.

Instead, different media outfits - stand outside polling stations and ask people how they voted (answering is strictly voluntary and is recorded secretly).  The media outlets then report these results - even though they are certainly not official or anywhere close to it - and are sometimes wildly off from the actual results.

So election night in Israel is not nearly as riveting (in the same way) as an election in the U.S. or Canada can be with the live results pouring in by the minute. In Israel, you may not know the actual results until the next morning or even late the next day - though the "polls" are sometimes decisive enough to be reasonably accurate.

That's not to say that Israeli election results are predictable - they are certainly not - (in many cases).  And the results can differ quite a bit from what the pre-election polls were suggesting. But getting the actual results takes much longer.  Even hard core political junkies may not be able to watch for 20 hours straight until the results are more or less clear.

There are a few other interesting rules - like "surplus voting arrangements" whereby a party can make a deal with one other party to share any "surplus votes" rather than have them go back into the pool.  This only works for parties that have passed the minimum threshold. But I don't think I really need to get into a discussion of that for now.

3. The Parties

I am going to look at the governing coalition first - and take a quick run through its parties as well as the parties that are likely to join the current governing coalition if they make it in to the Knesset.

A. Governing Coalition

i. The Likud

One of Israel's largest and most powerful parties, this is the party of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and goes into this election for the 38th Israeli government with a bloc of 32 seats.  Netanyahu has been plagued by his personal legal problems including his ongoing criminal trial - and has been fighting to distance himself from any responsibility for the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023.  Netanyahu is a master politician, who knows how to win elections.  He often comes up with last minute surprises - which is why his nickname in Hebrew is the "magician."  For years, he painted himself as "Mr. Security" and campaigned on the idea that no one else could possibly fill his shoes. As a result of the the October 7th war, Netanyahu's image has absorbed some damage.  Many Israelis, including many of those on the right of the spectrum, believe that Netanyahu has pandered to the ultra-religious and refused to enact a stronger draft bill - that would ensure that more of the Haredim enlist in the army.  Others are concerned that by giving Ben-Gvir a portfolio covering the police and a range of internal matters, Netanyahu has let things get out of control in Judea and Samaria.  The world is paying attention to unchecked settler riots and pogroms in these territories and the Israeli government has not done nearly enough to stop these activities. Many Israelis are also upset that three years after the events of October 7th, there has still not been an exhaustive national inquiry (or any inquiry) and the security situation is not really in a better place than it was before this current government took charge.

Most polling numbers are projecting a drop in seats for the Likud party from 32 down to somewhere between 19 and 23. Many Likud Knesset members are likely to lose their seats.  

ii. Shas

Shas is the second largest party in the current government bloc.  It is an ultra-religious, Sephardi party led by a twice-convicted felon, Aryeh Deri.  The first time around, it was fraud, bribery and breach of trust. Deri spent 22 months in prison from 2009 and was released from the balance of his 3 year term for "good behaviour."  Shas pushes to help the ultra-orthodox Sephardi community by securing government funding for preferential housing, funding for religious institutions, medical care in ultra-religious neighbourhoods, all while generally opposing military enlistment.  In Israel's earlier history, Shas was willing to go along with the Labour bloc of parties - for the right financial deal. More recently, and certainly over the past several elections, Shas has been entirely tied to the Netanyahu camp - mainly because Netanyahu has been the only one willing to give Shas what it wants.  (And to agree to appoint Deri as the Minister of the Interior - even though he was convicted of offences twice while holding that role).  I don't think I need to say more about Deri - the convictions speak for themselves - other than to note that, like Bibi, he is a master campaigner and politician, who has a way of rounding up his base voters - no matter what he might do.  Or perhaps they figure whatever he is up to - is for their benefit.  Shas has 11 seats in the current Knesset.  Most polls are projecting them to wind up with 7 or 8.  I'm not sure where these voters will go - perhaps to Ben Gvir, Smotrich or Winter - see below.

iii. United Torah Judaism

Made up of two ultra orthodox (Haredi) Ashkenazi parties - this is the primary group representing Me'ah Sh'arim in Jerusalem, areas of Bet Shemesh and other Ashkenazi, Ultra-Orthodox areas.  These parties are anti-Zionist. They refuse to serve in the army - or study secular subjects. They look to the state to fund their lifestyle of Torah study, large families supported by state funds, housing subsidies, food subsidies and a state sponsored network of Yeshivas and rabbinically-governed organizations including the whole Kashrut system.  They have 7 seats in the current Knesset and are likely to wind up with a similar number.  It seems unlikely that they could wind up in any government other than a Likud-led government.  While some of the other parties might be willing to pay them off - other Knesset parties and members including Lieberman, Lapid, Bennett and Golan - are not willing to give UTJ anything close to what they want.  UTJ current has 7 seats in the Knesset. They are likely to wind up with the same number.  

iv. Otzma Yehudit

This party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir is a far right party and successor of the old Kahane-led Kach party (which was banned from the Israeli Knesset). Ben-Gvir is an active, talented politician-demagogue.  Once viewed as too extreme to join any centrist government, he has been playing a key role in the current Netanyahu government.  Ben-Gvir has been characterized in the media as racist, anti-Arab, extremist and in all kinds of other even more colourful language. Ben-Gvir has a criminal record for "incitement" among other crimes and was deemed too extreme to go to the army.  Nevertheless, he is currently Israel's Minister of National Security, even though Netanyahu adamantly stated that Ben-Gvir would not be Minister in his government before the last election.  He is now running a campaign demanding that he be the Minister of Defence in the next Netanyahu government.  

Despite his harsh and extremist views, Ben-Gvir often makes public media appearances, engaging those who disagree with him with a big smile and a sense of humour, while often brandishing his handgun with little provocation.  He has cultivated an almost "campy" image - which is the way he is portrayed on "Eretz Nehederet" (the Israeli equivalent of Saturday Night Live).  At the same time, the show also portrays him as a foaming-at-the-mouth extremist.  Ben Gvir's party is currently at 7 seats in the Knesset but could wind up with 7 to 10 seats after this coming election.

v. Religious Zionist Party

This party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, was originally the successor of the old "Mafdal" party - a party of which Naftali Bennett was originally an active member.  

Smotrich is a lawyer by profession.  His views are fairly similar to those of Ben-Gvir.  He has been subjected to international sanctions by a wide range of countries for permitting, or encouraging violence against Arab civilians.

Smotrich has been serving as the Minister of Finance in the current Likud-led government.  

Other than the personality clashes, I am not sure what distinguishes Smotrich's views from those of Ben-Gvir - though Smotrich is not nearly as talented a speaker as Ben-Gvir.  Smotrich's party currently has six seats in the Knesset.  At the start of the campaign, polling numbers were projecting that this party would not pass the threshold and would be ousted from the Knesset.  

Smotrich added Moshe Feiglin and his Zehut (Identity) party into the mix as his number 2 candidate.  Since then, most polls have put the RZP at anywhere from 4 to 7 seats.  I think there is a strong likelihood that they will make it into the Knesset.  My best guess would be 4 to 6.

That is more or less the roundup of the parties that are part of the current governing coalition.  If you add all of that up - it comes to a range of 44 to 54 seats. That is a fairly wide range. Sometimes an increase for one party would come at the expense of another party.  In other words, it is unlikely that each party in this coalition could maximize its numbers because the pool of voters they are all drawing from is the same pool.  

These numbers are not enough to form a government.  Netanyahu and the Likud would need to get at least 28-30 seats, in my view, to be able to form a government and they would need those seats to come from centrist voters rather than voters in Netanyahu's existing coalition.  There are three more parties to mention.

Vi. Amcha Yisrael

Led by Ofer Winter, this is another far-right nationalist party, that is largely indistinguishable in its views and policies from the parties of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.  Winter has a much more developed military background. He held high ranking positions and, usually, sounds more rational than either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich.  He has campaigned on the platform that all members of the current government who were in power when October 7th happened should be replaced.  On the other hand - he says that he is a firm part of the right wing bloc - and the only leader he could support would be Netanyahu.  These two positions do not really go well together - and when Winter or anyone else in his party are asked about it - they get tongue-tied trying to explain their position.  They are hovering around the electoral threshold but I think that they are likely to wind up with 4 seats, maybe even 5.  However, these seats could come at the expense of Smotrich or Ben-Gvir.  So there is a chance that either Smotrich's party or Winter's party will make it in - and the other party will fail to pass.  If Amcha Yisrael, the RZP and Otzma Yehudit all make it into the Knesset, that will mean 14-18 far-right Knesset members - and they will all have to be part of a government for Netanyahu to stay in power.  In other words, Israel could wind up with an even further to the right government than it currently has.

Vii. Reservists / the Financial Party

This self-described right centre party is led by Yoaz Hendel and Economics professor Yaron Zelekha. Hendel is on the right centre of the Israeli political spectrum.  He holds a PhD in history and has been a very active reserve officer of the IDF.  Hendel has been strongly opposed to a government forming with Monsour Abbas in the coalition, which has meant that he is unlikely to hold the balance of power in a coalition government.  Up until recently, Hendel's party was polling at under the threshold.  They are now flirting with getting 4 seats.  They are a wild card since they could agree to join a Netanyahu government - or they could go with the opposition.  Ultimately, I don't think that they are going to pass the threshold but they could wind up with 4 or even 5 seats - which would make things really interesting.  These seats would probably come from the opposition - so I think if Hendel's party does get in - it is likely to mean lower numbers for the other opposition parties - or some of them.

Viii. National Unity - Benny Gantz

When Benny Gantz first arrived on the Israeli political scene - he was seen as a great hope for the centre of Israeli politics.  Someone who could take on Netanyahu and wrest away power from the Likud.  Gantz first got involved in politics in 2018 but kept his views very guarded.  He held an initial press conference to announce his candidacy but refused to provide any specifics of his new party's platforms or proposals.  At his peak in 2019, Gantz's party won 33 seats but could not form a government.  He eventually reached a rotation agreement with Netanyahu whereby he would serve as Minister of Defence in Netanyahu's government and then eventually Prime Minister.  The government collapsed and Gantz never got his rotation.

The perception of Gantz among many Israelis is that he is a weak leader who lacks the ability to stand up to Netanyahu's bullying tactics.  Although Gantz's party now has 12 seats in the Knesset, they are not projected by any of the polls to pass the electoral threshold.  Gantz has stubbornly refused to drop out since he is receiving state funds for his election campaign because of his seats from the 2022 election.  

I think it is highly unlikely that Gantz will pass the threshold.

If, somehow, 2 or 3 of these parties were to make it in - for example Amcha and the Reservists - and the Likud was at the high end of projections with 54 - they may be able to cobble together a government with 61-63 seats.  The other possibility is that the Netanyahu "mystique" works its magic closer to election day and Netanyahu surprises with 28-30 seats for the Likud.

I guess I have to go out on a limb.  After all, it is only fun to write blogs like this - if I actually put myself out there and make some predictions - even if they wind up being wrong.  I think that the entire Likud-led bloc, including Amcha and the others will be stuck at somewhere between 54 and 58 and unable to form a government.  

Which means we might be in for a stalemate and a new election after about 3-4 months.  But I will look at the opposition and go through their parties in a similar way.

I think I may have mentioned that this would be a lengthy blog.  Sorry but I hope you are finding it interesting.

B. The Opposition

i. Yashar - led by Eisenkot

The current opposition party that is leading in projected seats is the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli IDF general, whose son was killed in Gaza in the most recent war.

Eisenkot is considered a centrist on the Israeli political landscape.  Many commentators have written that the party's name "straight" is perfectly suited to Eisenkot - who is generally seen a person representing values of decency, integrity, service to the State of Israel - and devotion to his family.

Eisenkot is an advocate of equality values in Israel and has actively campaigned to ensure that more ultra-religious Jews are drafted into the army.

His party is polling at between 20 and 24 seats.  These are probably people who previously voted for Gantz or Lapid's party.

Netanyahu's main attack on Eisenkot is that he will not be able to form a government and will rely on anti-Zionist Arab parties.  Eisenkot has denied this and has pledged that his proposed coalition will get more than 61 seats.

He is not super-charismatic but he does project a sense of decency.  Faced with a skilled debater like Netanyahu, Eisenkot could wind up in a real fight.  But as a career military man, he is not one to shy away from a good fight.  He has lots of ammunition to use against Netanyahu and he has been willing to use it.

Since Eisenkot's party has never run - it will be interesting to see what actually happens on election day. Will they come in well ahead of the polls, well below the polls or right at their projected numbers .  This will really be a key determining factor as to whether Israel might see a change of government.  If Eisenkot can get 25 or more seats - and beat the Likud numbers - he might be able to piece together a government.

ii. Beyachad (Bennett and Lapid)

This is a really interesting party.  Made up of Naftali Bennet's party combined with Lapid's Yesh Atid - the party is a mishmash of centrists, right-centre politicians and slightly left-centre politicians.  The current Knesset had 23 Yesh Atid members and Bennet did not run in 2022.  Now the party is hovering around 12-14.  Bennett came from the right of the spectrum but is seen as someone who "sold out" by making a deal with Monsour Abbas to be able to form a government.  Bennett continues to describe himself has solidly in the right-wing camp. Some members of his own party pulled the plug on his previous government.  Lapid is seen by some right-centrists as too far to the left (even though he really isn't). So when Bennett and Lapid joined forces, their respective supporters felt alienated.  Nevertheless, Bennett is charismatic and thoughtful and has been campaigning all over the country - even in places where he is not popular.  Like Eisenkot, Bennett really does project a sense of decency and competency.  He could also surprise the pollsters with a higher than predicated showing.

iii.  Democrats

Not to be confused with the U.S. Democratic party, this party is a fusion of the old Israeli Labour Party, mixed together with the Meretz party - a far left secularist party.  Golan is a reserve Major General in the army. On October 7, 2023, he sprang into action, "re-enlisted" to the army, received a weapon and munitions and headed down to the Gaza envelope where he rescued several people.

Golan's party is the furthest left of any of the major Israeli parties running for election - other than the communist/ socialist Arab parties.  Golan is a strong advocate of equality of all types - gender equality, sexual orientation equality, religious equality and other forms.  His party is probably the only Jewish-Israeli party running that it is promoting a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute currently.

As a politician, Golan is much tougher and more "in your face" than Eisenkot.  His views are seen as extreme by a big chunk of the Israeli electorate.  He is someone who will never back down to any kind of Netanyahu pressure. 

One of the concerns that many potential Eisenkot voters are having is the concern that Eisenkot may turn into Gantz and get chewed up by Netanyahu.  Neither Bennett nor Golan are seen as having that concern.

The Israeli Labour party only has 4 seats in current Knesset.  Golan's party is now project to get 9 to 12.

iv. Yisrael Beitenu - "Israel is our Home" - led by Avigdor Lieberman

This party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, has significant support from the Russian community in Israel.

Lieberman is right wing on issues involving Palestinian-Jewish or Arab-Israeli disputes, though at one time in the past, he backed a plan to divide the country and have the Arab Israelis become part of any nascent Palestinian state or federation.

Lieberman is more libertarian on issues including separation of religion from the state, to some degree, and military service or the equivalent for all Israeli citizens.

As a former Likud party member, Lieberman worked closely with Netanyahu in several different governments and has held posts as Minister of Defence and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Lieberman, like Bennett and Eisenkot, believes that he is running to be the Prime Minister and maintains that his experience and his right-wing credentials would make him a compromise candidate for the opposition.

In the current Knesset, Lieberman's party has 6 seats.  The party might make it to 8 or 9 based on recent polls but I am going to predict 6 to 8.

So if we add up these four opposition parties - we get to somewhere between 49 and 59.  Yes that is a wide range - and yes - the same issue applies to this bloc as it applied to the governing bloc. Some votes may come from other parties within the same coalition.

Ultimately, I have not seen any recent polls or projections that would give the opposition 61 seats.  

Are there are any other options?  Well, one option would be a deal with the Reservists - if they were to make it.  Let's say the Reservists had 5 and the opposition bloc had 56. That could get to 61 but would be a very shaky government, not likely to last.

Would Winter's party join?  He says absolutely not - that he is ONLY supporting Netanyahu. But he also says he wants a new government.  Could he be pried away from the Netanyahu bloc? Depending on the numbers, I don't think we could rule it out.

But, of course, there are still two more parties and two more options..

C. The Arab Parties

i. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, a devout Muslim, this has been the first Muslim-Arab Israeli party to show an interest in joining a Jewish-Israeli led government and playing an active role.

Abbas is a Muslim-Arab-Israeli - who grew up in Israel.  He is a dentist by profession who has studied at Hebrew University and University of Haifa.  He is, of course, fluent in Hebrew.

Abbas is a very skilled and tactful politician, who routinely appears on Hebrew language talk shows.  He is happy to answer all sorts of questions - and is often faced with hostility from the Israeli right wing.

Abbas has conservative views on social issues and has been willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. From many different assessments that I have read - he did a fine job as a minister in the relatively short-lived Bennett government - and I think he would make a great minister in a future government.

Perhaps that is not a popular view among many Israelis - especially those on the right of the political spectrum.

More recently - Abbas recruited Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Israeli retired police major general - to serve as his #2 candidate - which is really quite a fascinating step for an Arab Israeli party.  Segalovitz has strong security minded credentials and is not viewed as an extreme leftist. But he is now running as a high ranking member of the Ra'am party - which, I believe, is a first in Israeli politics.

Ra'am currently has five seats in the Israeli Knesset and I believe that they will wind up with 5 or 6 once again.  The question is whether they will wind up helping the opposition take control of the government.  So far, Lieberman, Eisenkot and Bennett have all opposed forming a government with Ra'am. But I don't think we can fully rule out some type of arrangement if that is what it will take to oust Netanyahu.

Joint List

This is a group of three Arab Israeli parties - Hadash, Balad and Ta'al.

Unlike Abbas' party, these three parties tend to be strongly anti-Zionist and opposed to any type of active participation in the government.

These parties are rooted in Arab nationalism, socialism or communism and a great deal of anti-Israel rhetoric.

In fact. this year, Sami Abu Shehadeh, who was the leader of the Balad party, was disqualified from running in the current election due to comments he made that were perceived as glorifying the October 7, 2026 massacres.  Abu Shehadeh appealed to the Supreme Court.  During the hearing, the President of the Court told Abu Shehadeh that the votes were there to expel him - and gave him the choice of withdrawing on his own - which he opted to do.  His party, Balad is still running.

These joint list parties could wind up with 10-15 seats in the Knesset but they have no interest in joining a "Zionist" government - and the Zionist parties have no interest in having them join.  

One could question whether this really benefits the Arab Israeli community.  Would they not be better off - adjusting some of their positions - and trying to join the government like Ra'am? Surely this would assist Arab Israelis far more than staying on the side lines.  But that is perhaps for another day.

Political Conclusion

Looking at all of the above, I have concluded that, as of October 13, 2026, the most likely outcome is a stalemate.  There will then be a fight over whether Netanyahu remains on as the interim Prime Minister until a new election can be held - or whether the opposition parties, including the Arab parties - will find a way to change the interim government.  I am going to put a stalemate at just about 50%.

I think, based on current numbers, the second most likely event is a Netanyahu government of some sort. I'll put that at about 30%.

Finally, that leaves the opposition - who I think is now sitting at only about a 20% chance of forming a government.

These are all wild guesses based on my analyses of polls, online articles, listening to various commentators and putting my finger up to the wind to gage some general Israeli sentiments that I am hearing.  But of course, we will have to wait until October 27th or perhaps the 28th or 29th to see where the numbers are at -and try to determine what will be happening next.

I hope you found this interesting.  It wound up being a lot longer than I expected - and taking a lot more time.  So much so that I will leave other topics to my next blog.

Israeli Elections 2020

The results are in from the 3rd consecutive Israeli election within a span of a year and they are just about final.  More than 99% of the ballots have been counted.  The final result?  No clear winner.

I think it is fair to say that Israel is in the midst of a constitutional crisis.  The country is split down the middle between right and left and the two sides have not been able to compromise and form a government.  Nothing from the most recent election (on Monday March 2, 2020) suggests that this is about to change.

Here are the current results (which are likely to be certified in the coming days):

Likud (Bibi's party):                                                     36 seats (+4)
Blue and White (Led by Benny Gantz):                       33 seats (No change)
Joint List (Arab party):                                                 15 seats (+2)
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi Party)                             9 seats (No change)
Yehadut HaTorah (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party:     7 seats (No change)
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman's party) (Right Secular):     7 seats  (-1)
Avoda/Meretz/Gesher (The Left)                                    7 seats (-4)
Yamina (The Right)  (Naftali Bennett)                            6 seats (-1)

I have included in brackets the change for each party over the last election results from September 2019.  Prime Minister Netanyahu ran  with a "right bloc" which included Likud, Shas, Yehadut HaTorah and Yamina.  His bloc wound up with 55 seats in September 2019 and has now increased to 58.  However, a majority in the Israeli Knesset is 61 (out of 120).  Without 61, a government cannot be formed since the "bloc" cannot control the Knesset.

Over the course of the past three elections, including the most recent one, Netanyahu has insisted that his "bloc" will stay together and not be broken up.  In any coalition talks with other parties, he has maintained that any government will include all of these parties.  The difficulty is that all of the remaining parties oppose significant parts of the agenda that these 4 parties are proffering.  Blue and White, Yisrael Beitenu and, AMG are all looking to reduce the power of the ultra-religious, at least to some extent.

The bigger issue has been a key demand made by Netanyahu.  As you may know, he is currently facing three separate, serious criminal indictments.  His trial is due to start in about two weeks, though it may take a year or two until it is completed.  His party has been insisting on two different laws (bills to be passed) as part of any coalition agreement. One law would grant him retroactive immunity from prosecution while holding office.  Some forms of this law would allow him to be prosecuted after leaving office while others would immunize him outright.  The other bill would ensure that the Supreme Court cannot strike down the first law - by allowing the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court.  Both of these bills are acceptable to Netanyahu's bloc partners. But neither bill is acceptable to any other party.

The main reason that a coalition agreement could not be reached after the past two elections was that no  other parties were prepared to accede to Netanyahu's demands for retroactive immunity.  He had to keep going with additional elections until he could get 61 supporters to pass these bills.  It was literally life or death for him politically.  Without immunity, he risks going to prison, if convicted.

On Monday night, after the election, as exit poll results were coming in, Netanyahu claimed that he had won an "enormous victory."  His expectation was that he would be able to reach 61 seats, put together his right wing coalition and legislate away his criminal problems.  For a while, that looked like it might happen.  His supporters were seen dancing, singing songs of victory and celebrating wildly.

But  as the real results dripped in slowly, the picture began to change.  Netanyahu wound up with a bloc of only 58 seats, three short of a majority.

On Tuesday, he sent out all of his key advisors and former ministers to argue on TV and radio appearances that he had won the election, that the Israeli public had made a decision and that he should now be able to form the government.  The problem is that this was premature and inaccurate.  While he had won 3 more seats than the Blue and White party and that gave him a plurality, it was not enough to give him a majority.  58 Knesset members have been elected in support of Netanyahu and his bloc but 62 have been elected to oppose that bloc.  Most people, though not everyone these days, agree that 62 is more than 58.

By Wednesday morning, the opposition parties - sometimes described as centre-left together with the Joint List, were proposing a law that would bar a leader under indictment from serving as Prime Minister.  If they are able to pass this law, Netanyahu would be out of cards to play other than perhaps an appeal to the Israeli Supreme Court to override the law.  (From a legal perspective, there is a reasonable argument that it is an improper law since it would be enacted after Bibi won the election).  It is almost like fighting one retroactive proposal by enacting another one.  Not the strategy I might have chosen, but the opposition seems to believe that this would be the best way to avoid a fourth election.

So Bibi, as he is affectionately called, took to the airwaves for a press conference.  He held a press conference that was nationally televised.  He went through the math as he sees it.  He said that there were 58 votes for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist right."  On the other hand, he argued that there were only 47 for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist left." (He included Lieberman).  He  noted that the Arab party had won 15 seats but he marked a big X through that number and said that they effectively did not count.  (See photo above).  Even though these seats represented 15 democratically, legally elected members of the Knesset.

He then said that "we won this election and we are not going to allow anyone to steal it from us."

Very strong words indeed.  Especially coming from someone who has lost - 62-58.

With all of that having taken place, we are now left with trying to figure out what comes next.  I have to say that I really have no idea.

Here are some options:

1.  Netanyahu and the Likud could  convince 3 or more Knesset members to "defect" from their parties and join him to allow him to form a 61+ seat majority.  This seems quite unlikely right now.  It would require some members of the Blue and White party or the AMG to join him.  While there may be some Blue and White party members who are ideologically close to Bibi, I just don't see them moving over at this time.

2.  Netanyahu could negotiate some kind of coalition with Blue and White.  I can't imagine that they would give him the immunity he is seeking and this might involve a rotation of Prime Ministers.  Seems unlikely right now but anything is possible.

3.  A fourth election.  Even though it makes no sense and seems  unlikely to resolve  anything, it may well be a possible outcome.

4.  Netanyahu forced to resign as a result of a left-sponsored bill that bars him from being Prime Minister while under indictment.  This would allow Likud and Blue and White to reach a coalition deal fairly quickly.  It seems to me that this might happen after a fourth election but not necessarily now.

In the meantime, Israel has no real government, only a caretaker government with limited powers and a limited budget.  Many government operations are underfunded and being neglected.  The country needs a government but there is no obvious solution as to how that is about to occur.  Especially given the political deadlock.

The next few weeks will be fascinating politics.  We can only hope that sooner or later Israel will have a stable government.  Unfortunately, it is hard to see how that will take place in the near future.

Israeli Election 2019 - Some Possible Outcomes

The second Israeli national election of 2019 is due to take place on September 17, 2019.  Since I haven't been writing as much lately, I thought I was overdue to put together some comments about the upcoming election.  In the past I have reviewed the platforms of the various parties and provided some comments.  In this post, I thought I would try to look at some realistic possible outcomes, based on current polling numbers and consider what Israel might face following the elections.  This is certainly not "Torah mi-Sinai," as I have been very wrong in the past when trying to predict Israeli political outcomes.

I figure that there are about 4 or 5 realistic possible outcomes and I will consider them and the implications of these outcomes.

1.  A Likud (Netanyahu) Victory

At this point, with about 11 days to go until the election, I would have to think that this is the most likely outcome.  The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, needs to assemble a coalition of 61 seats to have a majority in the Israeli Knesset and form the government.  Following the previous election, Netanyahu was able to string together up to 60 but not quite enough to form a government.  Once it became clear  that he was unable to form the government, Israeli customary practice would have normally seen the President ask the next party in line (Blue and White) to try to form the government.  But Netanyahu preempted this step and brought a bill to the Knesset to dissolve the Knesset and set another election date. 

So there are now at least two different ways, perhaps even three that the Likud could form a government.

One possibility would be if the Likud and its coalition partners obtain 61 seats or more. 

Current polling from a whole range of different Israeli polls estimates Likud at between 30 and 32 seats, a drop of 6-8 seats.  The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ are estimated at 8 each, with no change.  The Yamina party, which is a coalition of a number of right wing nationalist parties, replacing Bennett's previous party, and now led by Ayelet Shaked, is polling at between 8 and 10 seats.  So add all of that up, at the high end and you come up with about 58 seats.  If Likud were to pick up 3 more, by itself or if any of its coalition partners were to add seats, Likud could get to a 61 seat coalition without Lieberman. 

A second possibility is a deal with Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu).  If the Likud is unable to put together a governing coalition of 61 seats without Lieberman's party, it will almost certainly try to negotiate a deal with Lieberman's party.

Following the last elections, Likud was unable to come up with a coalition deal that would have satisfied the ultra-religious parties and the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party.  Neither Lieberman nor the ultra-religious were willing to make sufficient compromises, particularly on the issue of drafting ultra-religious men to the army. 

While it is true that Lieberman seems to  have gained significant public support by demonstrating a willingness to stand up to the ultra-orthodox, his party otherwise shares many of Likud's political positions.  His party is willing to support a retroactive immunity bill that would get Netanyahu out of his various legal troubles.  This would also help other coalition partners who are under investigation.  Lieberman is also willing to support the "attack on the Supreme Court" bill (my description) that would give the Knesset the power to override any decision of the Supreme Court by a simple majority.  This is an important bill for Netanyahu since he knows that the retroactive immunity bill would probably be struck down otherwise as a violation of the principles of fundamental justice.

Lieberman's support for these bills would be life-saving for Netanyahu since it would end all of his legal problems.  Lieberman is certainly not a pushover but Netanyahu desperately needs these pieces of legislation to avoid the possibility of winding up in jail.  I think that there is strong likelihood that Netanyahu and Lieberman will negotiate some kind of deal if Likud cannot otherwise get to 61.

A third possibility for a Likud win is some other type of coalition without Lieberman.  Suppose that Likud and his coalition partners wound up with 57-60 without Lieberman.  They would need to find 1-4 additional supporters from elsewhere.  One possibility is to convince a few right-leaning Blue and White party members to join a Likud coalition, perhaps in exchange for cabinet posts other other attractive offers.  Or perhaps some Labor members or members of the Democratic Union might be willing to make a deal.  I think that these are relatively unlikely scenarios.  I find it hard to see that some Blue and White Knesset members or members of the other parties would agree to the retroactive immunity bill and the court bill to protect Netanyahu.  And that seems to be the number one priority for Likud and Netanyahu.  That being said, in Israel there are always surprises and there is a great deal of horse trading (to put it nicely).  So I don't think that this possibility can be ruled out entirely.

2.  Another Stalemate

This is probably the second most likely possibility after some type of Likud victory.  If Lieberman holds steady and refuses to make a deal that will allow Netanyahu to continue to govern and if no other Knesset members from other parties are willing to defect and join Likud - Israel could see a third consecutive election.  With the holidays and other timing issues, this would likely mean a January or February election.  This could be a big problem for Netanyahu.  If his criminal trial moves ahead and he has not been able to enact an immunity bill to make everything go away, he could be forced to step down at some point to defend against the charges.  This could change the Israeli political landscape quite a bit.  To me, it underscores the urgency of a deal for Netanyahu - with Lieberman or anyone else - at all costs (from Netanyahu's perspective).


3. A National Unity Government

Many people in Israel have discussed this option but I don't believe it is very likely at this point.

On the one hand, if Likud were to have the plurality of seats, Netanyahu would be looking to retain his role as Prime Minister and pass the two bills that his party has been pushing to protect himself.  I find it hard to see how the Blue and White party could agree to a retroactive immunity bill or even the Supreme Court bill.  Blue and White might be willing to agree  to have Netanyahu continue to govern - without these pieces of legislation.  In this case, he would face the possibility of having to resign at some point as the prosecution progressed.  I don't think Netanyahu would agree to a deal without immunity. 

If Blue and White were to win a plurality of seats, they could ask Likud to join a national unity government, with or without Netanyahu - with no immunity bill. Again, this seems quite unlikely to me since the Likud members have shown a willingness to continue to support Netanyahu irrespective of the challenges that he faces.

The landscape would only change if the Blue and White party came out ahead of Likud by 5-6 seats or more and Likud realized that it simply could not get to 61.  In this scenario, Netanyahu would, at some point, be forced to resign and face charges while the rest of the Likud party made a deal with Blue and White.  This seems highly unlikely to me for several reasons.  For one, I don't think that Blue and and White is about to get such a big win at the polls.  They don't really seem to have the momentum and don't seem likely to finish ahead of Likud by 5-8 seats.  Anything is possible but I am not predicting that outcome.

I also think that it is unlikely that so many Likud members would suddenly turn on Netanyahu after so many years of benefiting from his  leadership.  And I believe that with so much at stake, Netanyahu will pull out all the stops to cut a deal with someone to get the immunity bill and stay in power if there is any possible way of doing so. 


 4.  A Blue and White Win

While this is a theoretical possibility, I don't see how the numbers add up.   With a coalition of Blue and White, Labor, the Democratic Union (formerly Meretz) and even Lieberman, the total would come to 50-55.  I suppose that there is a chance that Blue and White could convince the ultra-religious parties to join a coalition - but that would put Blue and White into the same difficulty that Likud has faced - balancing Ultra-religious demands with those of Lieberman (and now the Democratic Union).  This would really require some creative deal-making on the part of Ganz and the Blue and White party.  It is possible that they could get the chance to try if none of the other possibilities reviewed above lead to a government.  Overall, I see this as unlikely but not impossible.

Conclusion

These different possibilities are all based on a review of current projected polling numbers combined with my own gut sense of where things are headed.  But election polling can be off quite dramatically and the numbers may be very different from those in the polls.  Likud could wind up at 37-40 seats, supported by many Israelis who don't really want to tell pollsters that they are voting Likud.  However, these seats would probably come from Yamina (or maybe Blue and White) so it is not clear that even with 38-40, Netanyahu would be able to get to a coalition of 61 without Lieberman.

Watching election results in Israel is very different from watching in Canada or the United States.  The actual polling station reports don't seem to turn up on a regular ongoing basis in the same way.  Instead, the media reports on "exit polling" numbers and uses those reports to predict the election outcome.  But the real results are usually not determined until the next morning - or perhaps even a few days later.  So whereas in Canada or the U.S., most elections are usually decided by 10 p.m. or 11 p.m., the latest, that is not the case in Israel.  We will probably only have a decent sense of the actual numbers by 10 or 11 a.m. Israel time on September 18th, 2019 (3 a.m. on the east coast for those in North America who plan to stay up and wait for the news...).

Even once the actual numbers are known, that will only really mark the start of coalition talks which are almost guaranteed to take a month or two.  So stay tuned for a wild and crazy ride.  It is almost certain that Israelis and Jews around the world will find themselves fasting on Yom Kippur without knowing what kind of government Israel will have for the coming years.  As for  Netanyahu, he may find himself fasting while hoping that he can continue to blow his own Shofar and that any negative decrees (from above, from the Israeli public or from the Israeli courts) can be averted. 

Latest Terrorist Attacks in Israel and Pew Study Link

  

We have been enjoying some unseasonably warm weather in Israel while dealing with a spate of Palestinian terror attacks.

Yonatan Azarihab

Yesterday, as U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was visiting Israel, Israelis fought back three different terrorist attacks in three different areas.  One attack occurred in Petah Tikvah.  The victim, Yonatan Azarihab, was stabbed several times in the shoulder and neck by a Palestinian attacker.  Though seriously injured, Azarihab pulled the knife out of his shoulder and used the knife to fight off the attacker.  The attacker, a 20 year old Palestinian, died of his wounds.  Azarihab is being treated at an Israeli hospital.

In another attack in Jaffa, a 21 year old Palestinian man ran down a a beach promenade stabbing several people in his path.  He injured twelve people and killed one.  Six of the injured were hospitalized, at least one of whom is in critical condition.  A local busker sprang to action by using his guitar to hit the attacker and slow him down before police arrived on the scene and shot the attacker.  The attacker killed an American student, Taylor Force, a U.S. military veteran, who was visiting Israel.  The Fatah website, which represents one of the strongest factions of the Palestinian authority, praised the attack as the work of a "martyr."

In a third attack, a Palestinian on a motorcycle opened fire on a police vehicle near the Damascus Gate in Jerusalem.  One officer was killed in the attack and a second was seriously injured.  Police eventually caught up to the terrorist and killed him.

The current wave of attacks has been ongoing since September 2015.  Hundreds of Palestinians have attacked Israelis across Israel. Although many of the attacks have been knife attacks, there have also been shootings, car attacks (where the attacker purposely drives into a group of civilians) and other incidents.  Many of the attackers have been killed by nearby bystanders, police forces or others arriving at the scene to fight off the attacks.

The attacks have generally not been condemned by the Palestinian leadership or even by Israeli Arab Knesset members.  Many of the attacks have been celebrated and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has praised several of the attackers as "Martyrs."

One has to wonder about the end game for the Palestinians.  If they are of the view that the use of this type of violence will push Israel to make significant peace concessions, that would seem to be a mistaken assumption.  If anything, the Israeli political landscape has been shifting to the right as a result of these attacks.

A Pew Research Center study released this week reported that close to 50% of Israelis would now support a policy of transferring Israeli Arabs out of Israel.  To where?   Well maybe that is a corollary of the Palestinian position that the Palestinian state as part of a "two-state solution" should be emptied of its Jews.  If a "two-state solution" means that each people gets its own state, many interesting questions arise.  If each state has a minority of the other state's people - and provides full rights for that minority (as Israel now does for the Palestinian population), then it seems doubtful that many Israelis would push too hard for the expulsion or transfer from Israel of the Palestinians to the nascent Palestinian state.

But if it is a negotiated condition of a two state solution that Israel uproot any Jewish communities in the territory earmarked for the new Palestinian state and provide the Palestinian state with territory completely free of any Jewish residents, it is understandable that many would view the corollary to be a logical extension of the same premise. 

This is the position taken by Israeli Knesset Member Avigdor Lieberman of the "Yisrael Beitenu" party, which is currently not part of the governing coalition.  Lieberman would argue that this is what President Obama has referred to as "land swaps" where Israel would trade areas within Israel that have primarily Arab populations for areas of the West Bank that have primarily Jewish populations.

Funny enough, the Palestinian Authority view is that Israel should empty the West Bank of Jews as part of a territorial compromise and agree to accept Palestinian refugees into Israel itself rather than their new proposed homeland.  Obviously this makes no sense at all.  The whole purpose of a "two-state solution" would be that the Palestinians could resolve, completely, the issue of refugees within the borders of their new state.  Netanyahu and Lieberman have been criticized for taking this position as racist and intransigent.  But it is neither to accept that a two state solution means two states for two peoples.

Some 50% of Israelis apparently reject the premise of a "transfer," according to the study.  After all, Israeli Arabs comprise some 20% of Israel's population and are involved in all facets of Israeli life.  It is probably also incorrect to interpret the poll result as suggesting that Israelis who claimed to support a transfer would want to deport Arab Israeli citizens, proactively, outside of some type of political deal that created two ethnic nation states with a negotiated population exchange mechanism.

But this latest round of violence has impacted Israeli opinion. As the number of terrorist incidents on civilians within Israel continues to increase, Israeli attitudes towards Palestinians, Israeli and non-Israeli, continue to change for the worse.

Perhaps Palestinian leader Abbas figures that this is the way to force Israel into a deal and to gain international support.  But it seems to me that the current round of Palestinian violence has pushed things in the opposite direction. 

Netanyahu Finalizes His Haredi Coalition

Well, the negotiations are over and we have a new government in Israel.  A razor-thin 61 seat government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party.  The government includes the UTJ (United Torah Judaism) (an ultra-religious Ashkenazi party), Shas (an ultra-religious Sefardi party, led by a convicted fraudster), Bayit Hayehudi (a religious Zionist party) and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party.  This is one big right wing party (or maybe a small right wing party, since it can hardly be described as a broad government).

Zionist Union Party leader Isaac Herzog called it "the weakest, most extortionist, most narrow government in Israeli history."  Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid called the coalition agreement "a liquidation sale."  Hard to argue with these characterizations.

By all accounts, the concessions given up by Prime Minister Netanyahu to the various coalition partners are excessive and wide-ranging.  The coalition agreement rewards the ultra-religious parties with a veritable reversal of a full range of changes that had been instituted at Lapid's behest in the previous mandate.  I have listed them already in previous blogs.  But "highlights" include:

• Reversing the requirement that the ultra-religious be conscripted to the army, like other Israelis;
• Reversing the requirement that state funded religious schools teach math and science and other secular subjects;
• Reversing the cuts to yeshivas and restoring all funding to all ultra-religious programs to pre-2012 levels;
• Providing the ultra-religious with an effective "veto" over any religion-state issues;
• Installing UTJ Knesset members in some of the most important Knesset roles including Chair of the Knesset Finance Committee;
• Turning over all key Education ministry positions to the religious parties, including responsibility for secular education.

The list goes on and on.  For those who favour religious pluralism, for liberal democrats and those who favour shul-state separation, the list of concessions is stomach churning.  In fact, I'm having a hard time thinking of anything positive to say about the composition of this government, other than, perhaps, the notion that Netanyahu may be the leader most capable of overseeing Israel's military and managing it in the face of a war or other major military event (which could occur at any time).

The "bright light" in the new government was supposed to be Moshe Kahlon, who had been elected to focus on economic issues and help make the country more liveable for the Israeli middle class.  But his opening act in this capacity has been the delivery of a stamp of approval to a governmental arrangement that will take billions of sheqels and pour it into parochial religious programs.  I would have to think that if another election were held today, Kahlon would lose at least half of his seats as a result of this display of a complete lack of judgment.

Perhaps surprisingly, Avigdor Lieberman has kept his rightist "Yisrael Beitenu" out of this unholy coalition.  That may well herald an early dissolution of what is bound to be a very unpopular government.

One would have to think that many Kahlon and Likud supporters will be demanding answers to why their parties felt the need to deliver so many concessions to the ultra-religious to form this government.  I have yet to hear any convincing answers, certainly not from Kahlon.

The big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and the Zionist Union party, all of whom will sit in opposition.  Of the three, it is really only Lapid and Lieberman who Israelis could count on to stand up to ultra-religious demands.  The Israeli Labour party, in the past, has made equally unpalatable concessions to the ultra-orthodox and had signaled a willingness to do so once again if that would have put them in power.  Only Lapid truly stood up to these demands in the previous Knesset and Lieberman has taken a stand this time around.

The good news, if there is any at this time, is that this government is not likely to last.  Netanyahu's coalition building decisions may well mean that his days as Israel's Prime Minister are limited.  There is bound to be a backlash as the government begins to implement this Haredi agenda.

Certainly Conservative and Reform rabbis and their congregations, in Israel and abroad, are likely to begin reciting the appropriate prayer for the speedy demise of this governing coalition and its replacement with one that is more representative, more pluralistic, more transparent and more committed to the rule of law (secular law, that is).  And that is not to mention anything about the prospect of peace negotiations, which are not even likely to make it to the back burner with this governmental configuration.

Looking forward to the next election already....

Lieberman: Hero or Opportunist? Latest Rumblings from Israel.

Avigdor Lieberman heads the "Yisrael Beitenu" ("Israel, Our Home") party in Israel.  He is a bit more of a complex politician than one might have thought.  On the one hand, he is viewed by some as a far right wing nationalist.  Certainly he has made some comments in the past about Israel's Arab population that can only be described as "racist."  He is unpredictable and will often say some things that many politicians would probably later regret.

At the same time, he can sometimes be far more practical than his right wing Israeli counterparts.  Lieberman, for example, has indicated that he is prepared to support a true "two-state solution" whereby one state would be a Palestinian state for Palestinians and the other state would be a Jewish state.  While some of his opponents call this a form of "ethnic cleansing," it is actually a far more logical solution than such epithets might suggest.  As part of any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he argues, the Palestinians should be prepared to resolve any issue of Palestinian refugees by taking in as many Palestinians as would like to come - to their nascent state.  In this context, he also argues that it is logical to draw the borders of the two states in such a way that the large Jewish populations in Gush Etzion and other West Bank areas remain in Israel; whereas areas with overwhelmingly Palestinian populations, even if those areas are currently part of Israel, are to be ceded to the Palestinian state.  These proposals, he holds, would be most likely to ensure that there is a truly workable two state solution to the Palestinian conflict.  For many, this makes much more sense for Israel's long term security than Bennett's plan to annex the West Bank ("Judea and Samaria").  Then what?  Bennett and others on the right have no answer.  For the long run, Lieberman has suggested that Israel's Arabs who choose to continue to live in Israel, rather than the Palestinian state, should be prepared to serve in Israel's military or national service and should be entitled to full equality of opportunity. 

But getting back to Lieberman's current situation, he is a secular nationalist politician rather than a religious nationalist.  His constituency is in favour of easing the restrictions on conversions to Judaism, lessening the power of the religious authorities over the state (especially the ultra-religious) and reducing state funding of the ultra-Orthodox institutions.  Much of this would explain why Lieberman and his party were able to sit in a government with Lapid's Yesh Atid in the previous coalition, even though Lapid is viewed as much more of centrist.

But now, Prime Minister Netanyahu has reversed directions completely from the previous government that he led.  The first party that he signed up to join his coalition was United Torah Judaism.  I wrote about the concessions that Netanyahu made in my lost blog.  Certainly these concessions would be very hard to stomach for anyone with Lieberman's views about religion and state.  The concessions make it virtually impossible that Lapid's Yesh Atid party would even negotiate with this government, let alone join it.  But Lieberman was still negotiating.

Then today, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced another coalition agreement.  He had signed up the other ultra-religious party, led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and was willing to provide that party with a fat range of concessions and ministerial portfolios.  Things get uglier and uglier by the day for those who endorse some level of shul-state separation or religious pluralism in Israel.

After the Shas announcement, Lieberman announced that his party would not join this government. This will leave Netanyahu with a razor-thin 61 seat government (out of 120 in the Knesset), once Netanyahu finalizes an arrangement with Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" (Jewish Home) party.   

It is too early, in my view, to determine whether Lieberman is using this pressure as a negotiating tactic to wrangle some further concessions out of Netanyahu or whether he is taking a principled approach.  It is fair to say that over the years, Lieberman has not always been characterized as a man of principle.  We will probably have a better idea over the next few days.

If Lieberman stays out of the government, the big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid and Lieberman himself.  Many Israelis who voted for Likud or Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party will be sorely disappointed to see that the biggest priority of their new government will be to restore a vast range of funding to various ultra-religious programs and to retract on the requirement that ultra-orthodox share the military burden of defending the state.  Many Israelis will find it hard to fathom that the solution for Israel's current financial situation is to take huge sums of money and pour it into ultra-religious programs, at the expense of universal health, education, infrastructure and other priorities.  This could mean a relatively short-lived government and a big boost for Lapid and Lieberman in the next election (at the expense of Likud and Kulanu seats).

On the other hand, if Lieberman simply uses this opportunity to extract further concessions for his party and himself and then joins a government which goes ahead with this ultra-religious program, he will undoubtedly alienate even more of his constituency (he had already fallen from 13 to 6 seats in the most recent election).

It should be interesting to follow.  I am inclined to suggest that many Israelis watching these events unfold will be much more likely to vote for Lapid in the next election.  This could create quite the pendulum swing in the religion-state relationship.  For Netanyahu to go ahead with such far reaching changes, while only holding a one seat majority, will be perilous for him and his party - as well as for Kahlon who will be seen as an accomplice to this shift towards the ultra-religious.   

Then again, all of that is an "optimistic" view of Israeli voters from a democratic, pluralistic view point.  If Israelis really do prefer to have the ultra-religious hold the balance of power....well...it becomes hard to imagine where we are headed.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is supposed to present the final governing coalition by May 7, 2015.  It will be fascinating to see what takes place in the late night, closed door meetings between now and then. 


  
   

Last Israel Pre-Election Blog 2015 and Predictions

Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni

Netanyahu and Bennett

 We are nearing the finish line.  Or perhaps, one could say, we are nearing the starting line, given the Israeli political system.  In some ways the real drama begins when the coalition building starts after the votes are all counted.  But tomorrow is a big day.  Israelis across the country will cast their ballots and it will then probably take quite a period of time to sort out and spin the results.  Students are thrilled - they have a day off school since in Israel, an election day is almost a national holiday.

Under Israeli law, the last pre-election polls could only be published Friday March 13, 2015.  But over the past few days, there has been a flurry of activity from all sides, jockeying for last minute position.  Here are a few last-minute highlights of some of the really interesting things that are going on (in my view anyways).


1.  Netanyahu is in Desperation Mode

Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops in a bid to retain his position.  He attended a large rally on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv with Bayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett.  He has publicly appealed to his constituency by pledging that Bennett will be a key part of his government.  He has attacked Herzog and Livni as "weak" and claimed that they will divide Jerusalem and create "Hamastan" in Jerusalem.  In short, he has made every effort to appeal to his right wing base, seemingly ceding much of the centrist vote on issues involving the Palestinians.  He has renounced any previous speeches in which he indicated that he would be willing to agree to a Palestinian State and he has wooed the right wing and the Israeli religious voters feverishly.  At the same time, he has urged Moshe Kahlon (leader of the Kulanu party) to support him and he has pledged to provide economic assistance to the middle class despite the perception that he has a failed record in this regard.  While Netanyahu's calculation is that the Likud voters will be frightened into bolstering his party at the last minute, there is some danger that this will backfire.  There is a palpable sense of desperation.  The momentum has been moving in the other direction and it is certainly unclear that these desperate speeches and statements will stem the tide.

2.  The Zionist Camp is Feeling Confident

Indications are that the Zionist Camp will win a plurality of seats.  However, it still may not be enough to enable the party to build a viable coalition and form a government.  Nevertheless, the party is also making several last minute appeals, changes and pleas in an effort to shore up its support.  Leader Isaac Herzog visited the Kotel and pledged his support for Jerusalem.  He has attacked Lapid's Yesh Atid Party and urged centrist voters to support his party.  Earlier today, he and co-leader Tsipi Livni announced that they would not go through with their plans to have a rotating Prime Minister's office and that Herzog would be the sole Prime Minister if the party wins.  This was seemingly intended to enable the party more flexibility in coalition negotiations - perhaps even opening the door to a rotation with Likud (which may or may not involve Netanyahu).

3.  Meretz is also Desperate

As I have written previously, the Meretz party, the party of left wing social justice, is flirting with elimination from the Knesset.  Under new Israeli electoral law, a party must win 4 seats to be able to sit in the Knesset.  That total has been increased to minimize the number of parties and limit the ability of extremist parties to win Knesset seats.  Meretz is polling at 4 or 5 seats.  Meretz has stepped up its campaigning with ads everywhere.  It is appealing to voters by claiming that the Meretz party is needed for there to be any chance for Herzog to form a government.  In fact, it has used a stylized "Merzog" graphic to bolster the connection, mixing its party name with Herzog.  But many Meretz voters are moving to the Zionist Camp, hoping that this will finally be an opportunity for the left/centre to form a government.  It could be a very close call for Meretz.

4.  Shas and Yachad

As I discussed previously, the ultra-religious Shas party splintered over the course of this most recent Knesset sitting.  Eli Yishai left the party and formed the Yachad party which is now polling at 4 or 5 seats.  Shas is calling on its voters to "come home" to the legacy of the late Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, its former spiritual leader.  Yishai is flailing around in an effort to reunite with Shas or find some other way to make it into the Knesset.  It would be a huge boost for the Israeli centre if Yishai were to fall short since his 4 seats would be redistributed among the other parties, proportionately.  

5.  Centrist Struggle:  Lapid or Kahlon?

In the last Knesset, Yair Lapid's party Yesh Atid had 19 seats.  The party is now polling at 12.  A new party, Kulanu, led by former Likud member Moshe Kahlon is polling at 8.  A simplistic look at these numbers would suggest that these parties are fighting over the same group of voters - approximately 15-18% of the Israeli public who view themselves as true centrists.  Lapid has edged slightly to the left, indicating that it is now highly unlikely that he would join a Netanyahu-led government (again).  Kahlon has been wooed by Likud but has refused to commit to supporting Netanyahu. These two parties could be the real power brokers and could also wind up with surprising numbers.  It is likely that the two parties combined will wind up in the range of 18-25 seats, which is certainly a force to be reckoned with.

Predictions

It is extremely difficult to predict Israeli election results. Many Israelis continue to declare themselves to be "undecided" to pollsters - whether or not that is really true.  Others are still deciding between one or two or even three parties.  Some may not decide until they are in the polling booth.  But what is a political column like this worth without making an effort?  So here goes, based on recent polls, trends, discussions with others, gut instincts and perhaps, a complete lack of qualifications as an election predictor - here is what I am going with:

Zionist Camp:  27
Likud:  21
Yesh Atid:  16
United Arab Parties: 13
Bayit Yehudi 13
Shas 8
Kahlon 7
Degel HaTorah 6
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 4
Yachad OUT

If this were to occur, Herzog would have 30 days to try and form a government.  He would be able to count on the support of Yesh Atid, Meretz and maybe Kahlon.  That could get the party to 54.  They would still need seats from the religious parties and/or Lieberman to be able to form a government.  Alternatively, they would try to form a unity government agreement with Likud.  I am having a hard time, based on these numbers, seeing how the Zionist Camp could actually form a government.  I am almost forced to predict that we will see another election within a two year period.

On the other hand, if Netanyahu continued to fight over the initial 30 day period and Herzog could not form a government, Netanyahu would get a chance to try.  He could count on Bayit Yehudi, Shas and Degel HaTorah.  That would get him to 48 with these numbers.  Add 5 for Lieberman.  That is 53.  He would still need Kahlon and Yesh Atid or at least Yesh Atid.  At this point, it is highly unlikely that Yesh Atid will bolster a right-wing religious government, since that would involve unraveling all of the changes that Lapid has pushed for.

This all looks like quite a recipe for a political logjam.

Netanyahu is not about to go quietly.  However, looking at all of these results and possibilities, the most likely of the unlikely scenarios is starting to look like a joint Zionist Camp-Likud government, supported by Lapid, Kahlon and Meretz.  It would be quite a shock but there are Israeli precedents.

The alternative would be a Herzog-led government which includes two of the three - Shas, Degel HaTorah, and Lieberman - as well as Kahlon and Lapid.  I'm not seeing it....

So that is the best I can do.  Stay tuned.  We should have a good sense by Wednesday morning as to how these numbers stack up with the official results.