Supreme Bombshell: Minister Aryeh Deri Removed from Office by Israeli Supreme Court

On this day, January 18, 2023, the Supreme Court of Israel has issued one of its most consequential decisions in the history of the State.  Released at 4 p.m. Israel time (9:00 a.m. EST), the Court decided by a vote of 10-1 that Rabbi Aryeh Deri, head of the Shas party, should be removed from his position as a Minister in the current government.  While my intro sounds excessively dramatic, I may have even understated the situation.  Israel is on the edge of a constitutional-judicial precipice and it is very difficult to predict what we may see next.

A Bit of Background

Before I get to the actual decision, I just want to cover a few points, as quickly as I can, some of which I may have addressed in my previous blog.  But they are important context.  

1.  As you know, Israel has held several consecutive elections, which have mostly resulted in "stalemates" without a clear victory by the right or the centre-left.

2.  In the most recent election, the Israeli right and far right - managed to win a total of 64 seats, including 11 seats for the ultra-orthodox Sephardi party, led by Rabbi Aryeh Machluf Deri.

3.  Deri was convicted in 1999 of several offences including bribery, corruption, and breach of trust. These are referred to as his "personal offences."  He was also convicted of "public offences" (essentially diverting public funds illegally to a charitable organization that he supported).  Deri was sentenced to 4 years in prison and served a sizeable chunk of that time.

4.  After being statutorily barred from office for 7 years under Israeli law, Deri returned to public life - and was eventually crowned, once again, as the head of the Shas party.  Under a previous Netanyahu government, Deri again became Minister of the Interior almost 14 years after his original conviction (the position he had held in the 1990s when he committed the earlier offences).

5. While Minister of Interior this time around, Deri was again investigated and charged with a whole series of offences including bribery, corruption, breach of trust and other offences.  

6.  In 2021, Deri agreed to a plea bargain where he would plead guilty to tax offences and the other charges would be dropped.  He appeared in Court and told the Court that he would be leaving public life.  In exchange, the Court issued a suspended 12-month sentence and ordered Deri to pay a significant fine.

7. In Israel, convicted offenders are barred from serving from the Knesset if the conviction carries the designation of "moral turpitude."  The Court did not officially designate Deri's latest offence one way or the other.  According to Israeli law, he should have then gone to the National Elections Committee for a determination as to whether this offence involved Moral Turpitude.  If it was categorized in that way, Deri would have been barred from serving as a Minister for 7 more years.

8.  Despite Deri's conviction, he ran in the most recent election as leader of the Shas party and his party won 11 seats (in a Knesset of 120).  He and his party were critical to Netanyahu's ability to form a majority coalition.  As part of the coalition negotiations and eventual agreement Netanyahu agreed to give Deri two Ministerial positions and also make him deputy Prime Minister.

9. Knowing that Deri faced a serious risk of being ruled unfit for office by the courts, Netanyahu's new coalition government introduced legislation, even before they were sworn in as a government, to change Israel's "Basic Law" and state that convicted offenders can be Ministers as long as they do not serve jail time.

10. The appointment of Deri to Ministerial positions was challenged in the Supreme Court of Israel (you can bring this type of question directly to the Supreme Court).  The new legislation was also challenged.  There were a whole range of applicants - including members of the opposition.

11.  The night before the hearing was held, the new Minister of Justice, Yariv Levin, announced a four point plan to reduce the power of the Supreme Court dramatically (which I discussed in my earlier blog).  Commentators viewed this as "pointing a loaded gun at the Supreme Court on the eve of the hearing."

12.  The Supreme Court hearing was broadcast live on TV and went on for about 6 hours.  The decision was reserved.

13. Last week, the President of the Supreme Court, Esther Chayut, took the unprecedented step of giving a prime time, detailed speech opposing the proposed reforms by the current government.  She warned that this was a major attack on the judiciary and would weaken Israeli democracy and judicial independence significantly.  While her speech suggested hinted at what the Supreme Court would ultimately decide in its pending decision, she did not directly address the case that she had just heard.

The Decision Itself

This is not an academic blog, even though I try, at times to edge into academic discussions.  It is also not a legal blog - even though, as you know, I have a Canadian law degree and some familiarity with Israeli law.  As a result, I cannot promise (or deliver) a complete legal analysis of the decision.  But I can make a few relevant comments.  I apologize again for the length of this blog but I realized that it would take longer to cover this than originally expected.

First of all, the decision is about 124 pages long and was released in Hebrew only initially.  I slogged my way through a chunk of it in Hebrew and then gave google translate a try - with a fair degree of success.  Although my Hebrew is quite good, I have to say  that it was much easier to go through the decision in English. 

As I have mentioned, the main take-away is that the Court disqualified Aryeh Deri as being fit to serve as a Minister.

There were 11 judges hearing the case (out of a total of 15 sitting judges).  As an aside, I wonder why they didn't simply have all 15 hear the case - but I'm not going to address that.

The Court heard three challenges to Deri's appointment that it was asked to adjudicate.  I have edited or paraphrased the essence of these three challenges:

1.  The first challenge was the new legal amendment to the Basic Law enacted by the incoming government.  As I have discussed previously, up until December 2022, the law in Israel was that a convicted criminal could not not serve as a Minister in the government if the conviction carried as designation of "moral turpitude." Generally, criminal sentences that involve prison time have been considered to be in that category.  Moreover, there was no distinction between suspended and non-suspended sentences.  

Normally, if a person is convicted of a crime, they can appeal to the National Elections Committee for a designation of whether or not the offence carries this designation.  If so, they could be barred from serving as a Minister in the Knesset for seven years.  As outlined above, Deri received a suspended sentence (one year plus fines) for Tax offences and all of the other charges against him were dropped.  He stated in court that he was leaving public office and it was on this basis that the plea bargain was accepted.  Shortly afterwards, he announced that he was back in business and re-entering public life.  He did not go to the elections committee to determine if his offence would be designated as a "moral turpitude" offence, since he did not want to be barred for seven years (which was a likely outcome). Instead he held a press conference to announce his self-proclaimed victory over a "rigged" justice system.

The law that the new government promulgated (as described above) to allow a convicted criminal to serve as a Minister as long as  the person did not serve jail time was challenged in the Court by a variety of groups.  From my review of the opinions of the 11 judges, it appears that only one or two of the judges were prepared to hold that the new law was void (ultra vires).  However, most of the judges held that they did not need to decide the issue.  

I think they felt that they would be overstepping if they were to overturn this law - and they did not need to do so anyways.

2.  The second challenge was based on an Israeli doctrine of, essentially, "patent (or extreme) unreasonableness."  Here the argument was, that in exercising his jurisdiction to appoint ministers, Prime Minister Netanyahu had to take into account appropriate legal considerations and failed to do so in the extreme.  The Court reviewed Deri's record of multiple convictions - noting that he has been convicted of three different sets of offences, in each case while serving in the government as a Minister.  It also noted that he mispresented himself to the Court to secure his plea bargain deal, that he repeatedly showed (by words and actions) disdain for the legal system and that this was an extreme case in which the failure to consider these issues violated principles of Israeli law.  Of the 11 judges writing opinions (and each judge wrote at least a few paragraphs - if not multiple pages), I counted 7 judges, including Chief Justice Chayut, who were prepared to disqualify Deri on this basis.  Some commentators have suggested that only five judges in total upheld this ground - so perhaps I will have to go back and read some of these opinions again.  Justice Chayut, the president of the Supreme Court, held that since she was making her ruling on this ground, she did not need to decide the other two grounds.  Several of the justices agreed with her.  

3.  The third challenge was a bit more difficult to understand.  Essentially, the argument was that Deri misled the Court when he entered into his plea bargain arrangement.  In a nutshell, the basis for the plea bargain was a mispresentation, wrongful manipulation of the Court and an exhibited disdain for the Israeli legal system, making him unfit for service as a Minister.  At least three of the judges ruled against Deri on this basis and some others were prepared to agree to this ground along with the ground of reasonableness.  This is an interesting ruling because, apparently, this type of decision would not be affected by a governmental decision to change the law of "patent unreasonableness."  In other words, one of the changes proposed by Justice Minister Levin is to strip the Israeli Supreme Court of the power to invoke "patent unreasonableness" as a ground for overturning governmental action.  This finding of "misrepresentation" is not reliant on a need to invoke "patent unreasonableness."  In fact, some of the judges using this ground to overturn Deri's appointment expressly stated that they would not agree to call the decision to appoint Deri patently unreasonable, even though they would overrule his appointment on other legal grounds.

Ultimately, no matter how you slice it, 10 of the 11 judges held that Deri should be ruled unfit for office and removed from his position as Minister.  It is unclear that the Knesset can easily overturn this decision, though it sounds like the current government will certainly try.

One judge, Justice Elron, dissented.  According to Justice Elron, the decision is premature and Deri should be forced to go the National Elections Committee and get a determination as to whether his offences are such that they would attract the "Moral Turpitude" designation.  Despite the spin from commentators on the Israeli right - Justice Elron did not rule that Deri was fit for office or dismiss the appeal outright.  This was primarily a procedural decision - even though Justice Elron did note that Prime Minister Netanyahu should be given much more latitude than the other judges of the Court are prepared to grant.

Commentators have also noted that Justice Elron was the one non-Ashkenazi judge in this group of 11 - and that Deri is of Moroccan origin. The Shas party has attempted to portray this as a racist ruling by 10 non-Sephardi judges - even though five of them are considered "conservative" or "very conservative" judges.  Many are trying to use this lone judge's dissent as a call to attack the court as racist, elite, prejudiced and unrepresentative of Israeli society.  Although it would certainly make sense to have greater Sephardi representation on the Israeli Supreme Court, I really don't buy the argument that these judges were all ruling against a serial criminal because of his ethnic origin.

Now What?

We are hearing about all kinds of possible steps that the current government might now take in response.

Here are a few possibilities.

1. The government may simply press ahead with its dramatic attempt to weaken the Supreme Court.  Levin's multi-part proposal is only the first step in his unrevealed plan. (As he has stated).  He has indicated that the government will start by passing a law allowing it to overturn any decision of the Supreme Court by a mere majority in the Knesset.  The government also plans to take away the  Supreme Court's ability to use "patent unreasonableness" as a grounds for overturning governmental decisions.  The government intends to change the way justices are appointed so that it can appoint more judges favourable to the political party that is in power.  After pressing ahead with these changes, the government may then overrule the Supreme Court's Deri decision and reinstate him.  This could then be appealed to the Supreme Court.  Good luck predicting what will then happen.  It would be a major jurisdictional war between the legislative and judicial branches of the state.

In the meantime, this type of legislative attack on the courts will almost certainly cause a significant increase in the number of Israelis taking to the streets to demonstrate against the government.  Estimates from last Saturday night's rallies were in the range of 80,000.  If the current government proceeds with plans to attack the Supreme Court, we may see demonstrations of hundreds of thousands of Israelis - and we may also soon see road blockages, general strikes and other types of civil disobedience.

2. Netanyahu might find some other creative compromise - such has appointing Deri's son (don't laugh - that is being proposed) to these Ministerial positions while keeping Deri around in a position that he is still legally able to hold.

3. Netanyahu could re-open the coalition talks and give the Shas party a range of new concessions to appease the party and Deri, though it is unclear what would be acceptable to Deri short of being cleared to serve.

I think it is very difficult, if not impossible, to predict, as of right now, which path Netanyahu will choose and what he will come up with.  His coalition partners seem determined to emasculate the Supreme Court.  Historically, Netanyahu has been supportive of a strong independent judiciary.  But since a weakened judiciary could also benefit Netanyahu (as he struggles to get out of his own criminal proceedings), Netanyahu may well agree to use the "nuclear option" and declare all out war on the Supreme Court by enacting all of Levin's proposed changes.

Unless there is a mediated solution of some sort, this "war" between the current government and the Supreme Court could go on for quite some time and may not be readily resolvable.  If the Supreme Court rejects some of the government's proposed amendments, as violating Israel's "Basic Law," we would be at an impasse.  

We are in for some very interesting times indeed. In my view, much of this situation stems from the fact that Netanyahu is currently entangled in his own criminal proceedings and willing to entertain any type of coalition arrangement if it might help him extricate himself from the possibility of conviction.  

Stay tuned - as there will undoubtedly be some wild developments in the coming days and weeks, if not months - or even years.  As I said at the outset, the impact of this decision on the Israeli judicial and legislative system is enormous, even immeasurable.  I hope that all of this will be resolved reasonably at some point, though I am very concerned about whether that is possible.

Israeli Government Update January 2023

The new Israeli government has been sworn in, just in time to mark the end of 2022 and the start of 2023.  As  widely reported and  discussed, this is the furthest right wing government that Israeli has ever had.  The government  includes 32 members of the right wing Likud party along with 14 members of the far right Religionist Zionist party, 11 Ultra Orthodox Shas party  members and 7 Ultra Orthodox United Torah Judaism representatives.  

The proposed agenda of this coalition, as set out  in the various coalition agreements between the Likud party and these coalition members, if enacted, will threaten the rule of law  in Israel, the independence of the judiciary, the rights of  minorities, gender equality, the religion-state status quo and it will also have a lasting  and potentially exposive impact on the Israeli-Arab conflict.

Rule of Law and Judicial Independence

Perhaps it is no surprise that a  religion-based governing coalition would take inspiration from Jewish prayer.  One part of the Amidah prayer (recited three times daily by observant  Jews)  is  the  attribute of God as one who "straightens the crooked."  ("zokef k'fufim").  So the first order of business for this government, even before it was officially installed, was to pass a Knesset law that would allow convicted criminals to serve as cabinet ministers.  This law was passed in the Knesset last week so that Aryeh Deri, the leader of the Shas party, can serve as  Minister of the Interior and Health Minister and then subsequently, Minister of Finance.  He will also be the Deputy Prime Minister.  

Deri was convicted of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in 1999 for offences committed while he was previously the Minister of the Interior.  He served his prison sentence and then rejoined Israeli politics years later, to eventually  take back his previous position as head of the Shas party.  Under Netanyahu's previous government, Deri again became Minister of the Interior.  In 2021, Deri pled guilty to tax fraud and was given a suspended sentence.  At his sentencing hearing, he stated that he would be leaving political life.  Nevertheless, he promptly reneged and ran, once again, as leader of the Shas party.  Under current Israeli law, he would be barred from serving as a Minister.  So as a term of the coalition agreement, the first order  of business for this government was to pass a law overriding the current  law and allowing convicted criminals to serve as ministers.  That law passed three readings last week and became law.  The crooked Deri has been legally "straightened," even though I would venture to say that is probably not the type of straightening envisioned in the prayer.

The law has been challenged  in the Supreme Court of Israel as violating the "Basic Law" of the State of Israel - which is the closest thing Israel  has to a constitution.  The hearing is scheduled to be held on Thursday January 5, 2023.  However, the Supreme Court will be making its decision under an ominous storm cloud.  The current  government has stated that if the Supreme Court invalidates the law, the government will enact a new law overriding the Supreme Court's power.  In short, Netanyahu's government has vowed to ensure that the convicted Deri can serve as a Minister, no matter what kind of legislative gymnastics are required.

This fight is not inconsequential.  Several other members of this government are either facing charges, being investigated or already have criminal records.  Included  among them, of course, is Netanyahu himself, who is eagerly awaiting a favourable disposition of his criminal hearing, presumably as an unpublicized term of the coalition agreements that he has signed.  Netanyahu is currently fighting charges of breach of trust, corruption and bribery.  A favourable outcome for Aryah Deri is likely to assist Netanyahu in several different  ways including setting the groundwork for a plea bargain deal that will not have a deleterious effect on Netanyahu's continued political life.

The newly appointed  Minister of Justice, Yariv  Levin, a staunch Netanyahu loyalist, has vowed to completely overhaul the justice system, though he has not set out everything he  intends to do.  However, he has made it clear that he  aims to weaken the power of the Israeli Supreme Court significantly and revamp  the appointment  process for  Supreme  Court justices to ensure that politically compatible judges are  appointed.  Levin  is charged with passing the  "override" bill that will allow the Knesset by a simple majority to override any decision of the Israeli Supreme Court.  A weakened and less independent judiciary will  unquestionably impact the rule of law in Israel - significantly and negatively.

Minority Rights and Religion-State Issues

The new government has  proposed several wide-ranging legislative changes to assist the Ultra-Orthodox and Orthodox communities.   Yeshivas that do not teach secular subjects will be guaranteed funding.  Yeshiva students will receive a  large increase in monthly stipends that they are paid by the state  while studying.  The exemption from military service for the ultra-Orthodox will be  strengthened.  The law will be changed to allow businesses in Israel to refuse to serve certain groups for religious reasons (something like what the U.S. Supreme Court has been doing with respect to the LGBTQ+ community).  

The first order of business for this group here yesterday was to roll back certain tax changes that the previous government had implemented including taxes on sugary sweet beverages like Coca Cola (to try to fight growing rates of diabetes in Israel) and on disposable paper and plastic products (to try and help the environment).  The ultra-Orthodox argued that both of these taxes affected their communities disproportionately and demanded that these taxes be rolled back.  Yesterday, the new Minister of Finance, Betzalel Smotrich announced that both of these taxes were ending immediately.

I should mention that the Speaker of the House is Israel's first openly gay speaker, Amir O'Hana.  This was no issue for most Likud Knesset members or members from the rest of the Knesset, other than the Likud's other coalition partners.  Members of the Shas, UTJ and RZ parties covered their faces or looked away while O'Hana was giving his first speech as speaker of the house.  He vowed to ensure that all Israelis are treated equally and fairly including those who are members of minority groups even in the face of this proposed discrimination law.  Some of his Ultra-Orthodox and nationalist Orthodox coalition members this week attacked O'Hana as unfit for the job and called him "sick" and "in need of help" because of his sexual orientation.  With friends like these, who needs enemies?  These are after all his coalition partners who got him elected to the speaker position.

O'Hana was hand-picked by Netanyahu to serve as speaker of the house.  Some Shas and UTJ members this week said that this was a poke in the eye by Netanyahu since these parties have called for several anti-LGBTQ+ steps to be taken by the government.  For example, they want to ban Pride parades, limit accesss to same-sex adoption and fertility treatments and allow discrimination in housing and other services agains the LGBTQ+ community.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu is serving notice that he will protect the LGBTQ+ community by appointing O'Hana and that his government will refuse to enact agreed upon coalition promises - or whether he intends to try and use O'Hana as a fig leave to cover up for other discriminatory steps that his government plans to take as agreed upon with the other parties.  We will have to wait and see.

The Ultra-Orthodox and Religious  Zionist parties  have also called for increasing power in the hands of the Chief Rabbinate of Israel, undoing the changes of the previous government that partially demonopolized Kashrut rules across Israel, making it harder to convert to Judaism, limiting immigration, giving the Chief  Rabbi of the army much greater power over soldiers, barring non-Orthodox prayer services at the Kotel (Western Wall) or anywhere  near it - including  closing the "Israel area" where egalitarian prayer takes place and many, many other initiaves.  It is unclear how much of this agenda will actually get enacted - but the coalition has a majority and has some very motivated Knesset members.  It will be difficult for the opposition to stop them.  The only realistic reign on  some of this agenda will come from centrist and centre-right Likud party members themselves who may not be prepared to back some of the more extremist measures.

Arab-Israeli Issues

On the one hand, Netanyahu has vowed to make peace  with Saudi Arabia and to continue to expand the Abraham Accords, which would be beneficial for the entire region if it were to occur.  On the other hand, the coalition agreements that Netanyahu as entered into have led to the appointment of extremists such as Itamar  Ben-Gvir and  Betzalel Smotrich in positions that will now give them control over the police and parts of the military in the disputed territories and other parts of Israel.  Ben-Gvir is someone who was deemed unfit for national military service due to his extreme views.  He is now in a position to implement police and military policy.

Early today, Ben-Gvir visited the Temple Mount - the area above the Kotel - at the Al-Aqsa Mosque.  Ostensibly, he was visiting to mark the 10th of Tevet, a  Jewish fast day.  But Ben-Gvir and many of his supporters have stated that they intend to change the status quo, allow Jews to pray near the mosque regularly and, ultimately, rebuild the Temple on  that  site.

The Religious Zionist party also plans  to expropriate more Arab land, ease the regulations for when soldiers can  open fire on suspected threats, grant blanket  immunity to Israeli soldiers for actions while on duty and take several other steps that are sure to inflame the Arab -Israeli conflict.  These steps if taken would upend many of Israel's long standing policies that were implemented to ensure that Israeli soldiers always act within  carefully measured rules.  Once  again, it remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will be prepared to reign in these extremists - especially while Netanyahu's trial is still proceeding.

Overall, the early signs are that  this coalition will try to move quickly and implement as much of its agenda as it can, as hastily as  possible.  If the  coalition retains support from  all of its members, it can pass just about anything by a 64-56 margin.  I expect that we will see very large demonstrations in Israel very shortly within Israel - as well as more violent confrontations between Arabs and Jews across Israel and the  disputed territories.

One possible difficulty for the coalition may be internal.  There is a sense that Netanyahu held a "fire sale" and gave up too much to the coalition partners while retaining  less power than his party should have kept for itself. There are several disaffected, high ranking  Likud members who did not receive plum  cabinet posts and who have started to openly criticize Netanyahu for the first time in five years.  These include David Biton, David "Dudu" Amselem, and others.  Former Likud party member Dan  Meridor appeared on TV  on Saturday night and called this government that "greatest threat to democracy that Israel has ever  seen."

If four or five of these Likud members decide not to pass some  of this legislation, that could lead to a governmental crisis.  Ben-Gvir seems to believe that he can  increase his support and become  the Prime Minister one day - by outflanking the Likud on the far right.  He  will want  to head into the next election portraying  the Likud as a bunch  of  "leftists" who refused to enact his agenda.  

While that is a scary prospect that can't be ruled out, the Israeli public is not there, in my view.  Ben-Gvir's plan  could backfire.  If this  government collapses,  the extremists could  lose significant support.

That being said, I expect that they all realize this.  As big as their egos are, I think the right wing parties recognize this as being a golden opportunity and intend to maximize the opportunity.  Despite the anticipated  demonstrations, increased levels of violence, internal and external threats and worldwide  condemnation for some of the anticipated  moves, I would expect that this government is not about to collapse any time soon, though it may not make it all the way through  a full four-year term.

I have not gone through a comprehensive list  of all of the proposed legislative changes, all of the ministers or each of the coalition agreements.  Much of this information is readily available  on various sites if you wish to delve deeper into this.  But  I have picked  out some of the key proposals that  have received  widespread press coverage in Israel and other parts of the world and I have shared some of my concerns.

There are many people in Israel - and other parts of the world - who support much of this agenda.  According to some recent polls in Israel, somewhere close to 42%  of the Israeli public are happy with this government.  There is also support from ouside of Israel from some sectors.  Just  two days ago, someone emailed me an article by Alex Traiman of the Canadian Institute for Jewish Research, arguing that  this new government reflects the "will of the people," is not "anti-Democratic" and called this new government a "tremendous achievement."  I won't say which friend or family member forwarded the article to me.  But I guess we will have to wait and  see what happens and which pieces of legislation  the government actually implements.  That being said, in my view, the partial list set out above includes quite a number of dangerous, anti-democratic, steps  that are unlikely to be viewed by many as anything  "tremendous."  

As I mentioned at the outset, I think we will see significant challenges to the rule of law in Israel, initiatives that threaten minority rights, gender equality, Arab-Israeli relations and  a host of other initiatives that will have a very negative impact on Israel.  Hopefully many of these changes will be reversible.

Former Prime Minster Yair Lapid gave some closing remarks on his last day of his office.  He reviewed the achievements of his government in what was essentially a "State of  the Union" type address.  He closed by saying, "we are leaving you with a State that  it is in very good shape - please don't destroy it.  We  will be back soon."

Other Notes

New Year's Eve and New Year's Day came and went in Israel with little fanfare in most quarters.  Like  Christmas, New Year's Day is  not a holiday in Israel.  It was a normal workday with everything open and business as usual.  There were certainly New Year's parties across the country though there was no special TV  programming, national concerts or other official celebrations.  

As we enter 2023, I am still hoping that some of the sports teams I cheer for will come up big in 2023.  

Last night, as you might know, the Canadian junior ice hockey team won an incredible overtime game against Slovakia.  The overtime goal by Connor Bedard (projected to be the next ice hockey superstar) was an stunning piece of art.  Canada will play the United States on Wednesday night in what is sure to be another hard fought game - with the winner ending up in the finals on Thursday against Sweden or Czechia.  The games start at 1:30 a.m. here in Israel but I am happy that I stayed up to watch last night's contest.

I was also planning to watch the Buffalo Bills play last night (after the hockey game, of course) but as you may have heard, this game was stopped early in the first quarter due to the massive injury suffered by Bills cornerback Damar Hamlin, who went into cardiac arrest.  Hamlin was taken to the hospital and is said to be in critical condition.  Hopefully, he will recover from this though the nature of his injuries at this point is unclear.

Not sure what the NFL will do after taking the rare step of postponing a game due to a serious injury.  Perhaps the league is waiting and hoping for good news to be able to resume on some kind of positive note.  At some point, I would assume that the league will resume play though I think any decision will be affected by Hamlin's condition.

As I have written in other blogs,  Buffalo has one of the best football teams it has ever had and I have been super excited about watching them play.  Hopefully Hamlin, the league and the Bills themselves will overcome this injury and the Bills will wind up winning the Superbowl.  I am willing to give up some sleep when I am here to watch some of these games.  These games tend to start at 3:30 a.m. Israel time (if they are the evening games) and end early in the morning.  So I guess I am on a bit of a crazy schedule.

I think I will wrap things up for  now here - and wish everyone all the best in 2023 - best of health, success, peace, stability and wise decision making for everyone.  

Israeli Political Update, Sports News and Some other Comments - November 2022

Israeli Soccer fans in Israel

We are two-thirds of the way  into November, 2022, 19 days after the most recent Israeli election.   In  this blog, I am covering a few topics.   First some comments about Israeli politics and the ongoing coalition talks.  Next some sports news with a bit of an Israeli angle.  Then a comment on my most recent  flight to Israel from  Toronto.  And finally, a few comments on a movie I watched on the plane and other  Israeli programming.

Israeli Political Update

Israeli coalition talks continue and Israel still does not have a government in place.  Some had expected that these talks would be very quick and that a coalition would  be  formed well  within  the  28 day mandate that has been given to Netanyahu.  But as others probably expected, things aren't that simple.

As you may know from reading the news (or my other blogs), Netanyahu is trying to form a coalition government with three  parties, who will join his own Likud party as part of the government.  Two of the parties are ultra-religious ("Haredi") parties and the third party is a far right wing nationalist-religious party.

For all of the parties concerned here, there are no other real options.  The two ultra-religious parties were left out of the previous government.  This meant a reduction in budget allocations for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious institutions.   They are determined to be part of this government, no matter what to make up what they lost.  They also know that, for the most part, the other parties in the  Knesset do not want to give in to their  demands.  So they must make a deal with Netanyahu.

Likewise, the far right party, the Religious  Zionist party - also knows that it will not be part of any government  other than one with this current configuration.  Of course, the RZ party could  increase its seat total in future elections.  In fact, Ben-Gvir sees  himself, it seems, as a future Prime Minister.  But for now, they need the Likud and the ultra-religious parties to form their "dream governnment," a "completely right-wing government" as they referred to it during the election campaign.

At the  same time, Netanyahu needs all three of these parties (and only these parties) to form a government.  They are the only parties that will pass laws to help him end  his criminal proceedings.  He ran on a platform to govern with these parties.  And the ultra-religious parties  have been very loyal to him.  So all in all, I expect that these four parties will succeed in forming a government shortly.  Like any  good negotiators, they may all push the matter until the very last minute, just before the deadline, or even the extended deadline.  But they will eventually reach a deal.  They have no other choice.

The ultra-religious parties have made a wide range of demands.  First on the list is an "override law" that allows the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court of  Israel.   This is somewhat like the "Notwithstanding  Clause" in the Canadian Charter.  It has served as a basis for attacks from a few different satire programs - including Eretz Nehedert ("A wonderful country") which ran a skit with impersonators of the different political leaders sitting around thinking up  bills that they could  pass with the power to override the Supreme Court.  The skit ended with "Bibi" wondering if he could change the electoral system to give himself a 10 year mandate instead of 4....

Other ultra-religious demands have included a steep hike in the monthly stipend paid to yeshiva students, a law that permits public gender segregation of certain events, an immediate repeal of the taxes on super  sweet beverages (cola etc.,) and on disposable products and a wide range of other changes.  The ultra-religious Shas party has also demanded that the law be changed to remove "public breach of trust" from the  criminal code and to overturn the  current  Israeli law that says that a convict cannot serve as a minister in the government if he or  she was convicted of  certain types of offences.  The leader of Shas, Aryeh Deri, has been convicted  twice (the second time in 2021) of financial improprieties.  He wants  to have the law changed so that  he can serve as the country's  Finance  Minister.  (You can't make this stuff up - but it sounds about  as absurd as things get....).   I suppose it is like putting some Arab or other Mideastern countries, like  Syria or Iran, in charge of the UN Human Rights committees....

Overall, it sounds like Bibi and his Likud party are more or less willling to go along with most of these requests  from the  ultra-religious.

The Religious Zionist party is giving  Bibi  more  difficulties so far.    RZ is comprised of three parties that run under  one umbrella.  One group, led by Ben-Gvir, "Jewish Power" is anxious to come to a quick deal.  They have met  with Bibi  and, apparently, agreed on a range of items, including the  legalization of certain settlements  that were previously classified as "illegal"by Israel.  Ben-Gvir  is pencilled  in to  be the Minister of the Interior - which includes  having charge over Israel's police forces.   As you may know, Ben-Gvir has been charged and  convicted in the past on incitement charges  (of violence  against Arabs  and  of threatening violence against gays and  leftists...).  So  this is not a particularly palatable posting for some of us but Bibi will agree to it.

The other two leaders of RZ - Bezalel Smotrich and Avi Moaz are apparently demanding  concessions above their political weight.   Smotrich would like to be  given  the Finance Ministry or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  So far, Bibi is  refusing these demands (preferring to put Deri in the Finance  Ministry and his own buddy, Ron Dermer, who wasn't even  elected, into the role of  Minister of Foreign Affairs).  Here  for the first time, Netanyahu is running into protests from some of his own  party members, since they feel  he is giving  away too many of the important roles and not rewarding  his own stalwart party members.  This rumbling might become louder  since the Likud loyalists who are  left are the ones who have stuck with Bibi through thick and thin - generally less qualified and  more extreme than other former Likudniks  who left Bibi when they felt  supporting him was no longer  viable.  They would now like to reap their rewards for having remained.

I guess they will all continue to negotiate until someone  blinks.  Sooner or later someone  will,  since they all realize that  they have  no other choice. As expected, this is shaping up to be a  very right wing  government, which will  overturn a  wide range  of legislation, weaken  the power of the Israeli Supreme Court, tilt laws towards religion in the sphere of secular-religious balance, set back gender equality progress and generally make things very uncomfortable for  Arabs, especially those  living  in the disputed territories.

We will see what  deal emerges and  I will write more  about this in the  coming  weeks.

Sport News

The big  sport  news, of course, is the opening of the  World Cup of Football in Qatar.  There is an Israeli angle here, even though the Israeli side did  not make it into this World Cup tournament.  In fact, Israel has only played in one World Cup.  Perhaps that will change one day (and perhaps the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup...).

Israel does not have dipolomatic relations with Qatar.  However, Qatar agreed to allow Israelis to fly to Qatar and come watch the games. In fact, just yesterday it  was announced that Tus Airlines, which is 48% Israeli owned, will now run direct flights to Doha, Qatar for the World Cup.   This three-hour flight will set you back $666 USD though you can only get on the flight  if you can show proof of having a ticket to a World  Cup game.  Thousands of Israelis have apparently made plans to go  or are already there.  I watched a few being  interviewed just before the game  and they were  certainly very excited about being there.  None of them seemed to be concerned about any security issues.

Qatar has apparently agreed to allow cold  Kosher  food to be sold - but nothing warm and no meat, even though it had apparently promised to be  more hospitable earlier.   It has also stated that Jewish people will be prohibited  from praying in groups.  I would imagine that many of the soccer fans  going are  not  too concerned about these issues, but for observant Israeli soccer fans, this trip  might be somewhat uncomfortable.  Hopefully, there won't be any issues.  This is quite a contrast with what is going on in Dubai - where the UAE has opened up synagogues, brought in Kosher caterers and made extensive efforts to make Israelis feel at home since the signing  of the Abraham Accords.  Qatar is simply not there yet.

Soccer is the most  watched sport here in Israel.   On TV they are wishing everyone a "Happy World  Cup  Holiday."  One of the main channels, Channel 11, is interrupting much of its regular programming to show the games and there will probably be quite a number of people calling in sick or "working from  home"  over the next month. Sure this is also the case in many countries  around the world, even other countries that aren't actually participating in the tournament, like Israel.

As a Canadian, I am cheering  for Canada to do well.   Canada will face Belgium, Croatia and  Morocco in the first round.   The odds of Canada winning the World Cup are apparently 12,500 to 1 (though some sites are offering as much as 25,000 to 1 supposedly).  The odds of Canada emerging as one of the top two  teams from its group of four are apparently set at 215 to 1.  So if you think that Canada is about to be the big surprise of the tournament, there is lots of money to be made.  I imagine that quite a large number of Canadians will watch the Canadian side play - even if that means missing some work.  But the numbers probably won't  be as high  as the numbers who watch Team Canada Olympic Ice Hockey games.

Meanwhile,  I am not really sure if you could say Israelis are unified in cheering for a particular  team - though certainly Brazil, Argentina, and  France are all big  fan favourites.  I'm not normally a big watcher of soccer  but I have always enjoyed watching the World Cup  and I'm sure  I will watch my  share  of games, even though I won't be going to Qatar.  For now, I am clearly cheering for Canada.  If they exit the tournament quickly, as expected, I will have to find a different horse to cheer for.   Maybe  another underdog team.

Flight News

As you might know, El Al has "suspended" its Canadian service.   So there are no longer direct flights from Toronto to Tel-Aviv, which leaves Air Canada  as the only option.  In general, I have been flying  Air  Canada over the years.  Air  Canada offers a far superior  mileage  program, better deals with other partner  airlines,  lounge access  all over the world, and  a much greater  level of predictability, order, ease of boarding and baggage  allowance.  The in-flight service is also much better.

But with the decision by El Al to stop servicing Canada, Air Canada took the liberty of raising its prices - immediately and  drastically.  So whereas November is normally a "low season" to fly with very reasonable prices, it was much more expensive  now and the  flight was completely packed.  Clearly many of the people  were passengers who have  normally been flying El Al - which changed the feel of the flight as well.

Hopefully some other airline or  airlines will step forward and  offer some  competition on this route.  Otherwise, it looks like direct travel  between Toronto and Tel-Aviv (as well as Montreal and Tel-Aviv) is going to continue to get much more expensive.   

Movies and Shows 

On the flight from Toronto  to Tel-Aviv, I watched the movie "One of Us" which is a  documentary based on the lives of a few former Hassidic Jews in Brooklyn  who were able to "escape" and  are trying to rebuild  their  lives, some  with more success than others.  Certainly  the movie sheds light on some really horrible  situations and addresses a range of different issues,  including custody fights in the ultra-orthodox community in New  York courts, the cover-up of sexual abuse  in the  Haredi community, the limited  secular  education that community members receive and some other  issues.  It was  not a particularly balanced movie though it highlighted the work of Footsteps  a New York organization that assists those who have  chosen  to leave the ultra-religious community.  

Although there were interviews with some Hassidic rabbis and some attempts to discuss these  issues with community members, I felt that, overall, it was somewhat more of an attack on the community than a  balanced documentary.

That  being  said, there are similar organizations similar to Footsteps and  many similar stories in Israel.  It is a genuine  concern that this insular community  - in the U.S., Israel, and around the world, is not  providing its members with the proper  tools  to function and  make a living  and that creates ongoing, cyclical poverty.   Ultra-orthodox Jews are among the poorest Israelis.  Perhaps some of this is self-imposed, since  many of the men would  rather spend their lives  studying  in a Yeshiva instead of earning an  income.  In Israel, they don't serve in the army, they marry at a young age,  have  a large number of children,  and generally, have few skills that are marketable in the general workforce.

So although the movie itself was one-sided, the issues it raises are very serious  and are likely to be exacerbated by the Israeli  government in waiting that is rapidly taking shape - since the new government will be beholden  to  interests  that want  to promote and fund this way of life.

I should  also mention that after  I got back to Israel, I finished watching the  fourth  season of Fauda, centred on an  Israeli under cover unit that  fights terrorist cells in the disputed territories  and in other places.  I thought the fourth season was probaby the best.  Intense, riveting and more realistic than some  of the previous seasons.  I won't  give anything away - but it is really  quite a dramatic show.

The weather  has been beautiful here - 28 C during the day and sunny though we  have some days of rain forecast for later in the week.  We are looking forward to seeing a number of different guests, including family members and friends, here in December and then  in the spring and  fall  as well.   I don't celebrate American Thanksgiving myself - other than to  do my part by watching some of the NFL games that day - but I have attended a few Thanksgiving dinners  in Israel with some American friends.  Nothing  planned this year (since at least one of my American observing friends will be away) - but for all those celebrating - I wish you a wonderful Thanksgiving!  

As it turns out, there is a chance that we will finally have our  whole  crew together for  dinner on Thursday  night - so maybe I need to consider making  some turkey....We could combine that  with some World Cup viewing and some  quality Israeli wine.  I guess we have a few days  to decide.

Big Win for Netanyahu in Israeli Elections 2022 - Apparently

We are still waiting for the actual final results in the 2022 Israeli elections.  But at this point, it appears that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won a resounding victory and will be able to form a government with somewhere between 62 and 64 seats in the Knesset of 120 seats.

According to exit polls as well as the real time results that are still pouring in, Netanyahu's Likud party has captured approximately 30 seats or 25% of the eligible vote.  The  number of seats for the Likud is not at an all-time high - but it is the results of  Netanyahu's intended coalition partners that will put him in the driver's seat.

The election appears to have been a major victory for the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.  This is a far-right party that includes members who were Kahane party members in the past.  At the press conference that Ben-Gvir held earlier this evening, members were chanting "death to terrorists," referring to one of Ben-Gvir's demands that Israel institute capital punishment for terrrorists.  I was listening - and could have sworn I heard the crowd chanting "death to the Arabs" but I will give the crowd the benefit of the doubt and go with the reported chant.  The RZ party seems to be headed for 14-16 seats, a huge number for a party that has never come close to these numbers.   And a frightening number for those who prefer governments without fascist parties.

Another of Netanyahu's partners is the Shas party, the ultra-religious Sephardi party, which is being reported as winning 10 seats.  Shas has been running at 7-8  seats over the past few elections  so this is a reasonably significant improvement for them.  The other ultra-religious party - "United Torah Judaism" is being reported as winning 8 seats.

If we add up these numbers, we arrive at between 61 and 63 seats for Netanyahu and his bloc.  

Netanyahu will not have an easy time responding to the various demands for cabinet posts, huge budgets and and laundry lists  of action items from these three extreme parties.  He will also need to satisfy his own Likud members by showering them with cabinet posts.  I expect that there will be a huge cabinet - with close to 30 members if not more.

Yair Lapid's party, to this point, is registering 23 seats, which is a disappointing result for a party that was hoping to lead the government.  Some people  had expected that Yesh Atid could get up to 27-28 seats, which would have provided the party with a real opportunity to form a government.  If Yesh Atid winds up on the opposition benches for the next four years,  it will need to consider holding party primaries and acting more like a political party than a one-person show.

Benjamin Gantz's party, the National Camp, is running at about 10 seats, which is very low for a party that ran with the slogans "Only  Gantz can do it" and "After Him" (or "Follow Him").   This party is certainly disappointed with their apparent showing.

If the curent results hold up, the other "bloc" members that had worked with Yesh Atid including Labour (5), Meretz (4), and Ra'am (5) will come in at close to the predicted numbers from advance polls.  Lieberman's party is currently running at 5 seats, which is a bit lower than expected.

But overall, no matter how you slice these numbers, Lapid's best case  scenario so far is 52-53 seats.  There just does not seem to be a path to 61, even if some of the results change.

The voting turnout for this election, the fifth election in about three and a half years, was just over 80% of eligible votes, which is quite high for a western democracy these days and Israel's highest turnout since 1999.

One of the big reasons for the current state of affairs is the results among the Israeli Arab population.  In the past several elections, there were three Arab parties running together - Hadash, Ta'al and Bal'ad  These are generally anti-Zionist parties - who have in the past reached numbers as high as 15-16 seats.  Leading up to this election, Hadash and Ta'al began to discuss the possibility of cooperating with a Zionist government.  The most extreme party of the three - Bal'ad - broke off from the coaltion as the prospect of cooperating in any way with a Zionist government was unacceptable.  

Following that break-up - the Hadash-Ta'al coalition of two Arab parties is in line to obtain 5 seats.  But Bal'ad is apparently likely to finish below the required cut-off perentage of 3.25%, which would leave the party outside of the Knesset.  This means that the total Arab representation in the Knesset would only be 5 seats from Hadash-Ta'al and 5 seats from Ra'am.  Ra'am is a party that entered into a coalition agreement in the most recent government.  Hadash-Ta'al and Bal'ad are both groups that generally have no interest in cooperating with a sitting Israeli Zionist government.

According to some reports, Bal'ad is polling at more than 3.1%.  If it gets to 3.25%, it would suddenly pick up 4 seats - and 2 of those seats reportedly could come from the right wing bloc.  In other words, there is a still a chance between now and the end of the week that Bibi's bloc could  be reduced to 60 seats, which would mean a stalemate.   However, the way things are trending at this point, that does not seem likely.

Assuming that these results hold up, this will be the furthest right-wing government that Israel has ever had.  The Shas party has been a government partner several times.  They will insist on increased funding for yeshivas, prefential housing arrangements for yeshiva students  and their families, an end to any discussion of mandatory enlistment to the army for ultra-religious men, and an end to any discussed requirements of forcing the ultra-religious to study secular subjects in their schools and institutions.  They will also ask for huge budgets for their party and their constituency - all  to be overseen by  their leader Aryah Deri, a convicted fraudster.  He previously spent years in prison for bribery and corruption while serving as the Minister of the Interior.  But he made a comeback years later, was re-elected as leader of the Shas party and now has 10 seats or more.

The United Torah Judaism party will make similar demands to those of Shas - though for their constituency.  They  will seek greater power for the rabbinate and will launch ongoing attacks on gender equality as they have in the past.  They strongly oppose LGBTQ rights, gender equality, science (generally) and secular law.  Having sat in the opposition for the past year and half, they are hungry to make up for the lost time and will present Netanyahu with quite a large list of demands.

The largest coalition partner for Netanyahu, the RZ party, has never played  such an active role in the government.  The RZ party has proposed  removing the  offences of corruption and public breach of trust from the criminal code, which would  effectively end Netanyahu's trial.  They seek to appoint a majority  of right wing judges to the courts, to "untie the hands" of soldiers and  police in dealing with Palestinian  and Arab violence and they aim to expend the settlements, provide greater protection for settlers in Judea and Samaria (the "west bank") and take a much harder line towards the Palestinians and Palestinian terrorism and attacks.  Some of the demands of the RZ may conflict with the two ultra-religious parties  since the RZ members do believe in studying secular subjects, they work, serve in the army and pay taxes (unlike many of the ultra-Orthodox).  They have called for the institution of  capital punishment for terrorists, the expulsion of "non-loyal" Palestinians from the country and a range of other far-right policies.

Netanyahu is certainly aware that Israel would face a major international backlash if it were to  implement some  of these policies.  At the same time, he has promised to support these parties as part of his election campaign.  In his speech tonight, he called for the restoration of  "Israeli pride" and claimed that Israel needs to show the world that it is strong and not weak.  Perhaps his partners will insist, for example, on a military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.

If Netanyahu were to implement much or all of this agenda, as demanded by his three coalition partners, the country would start to look like Turkey or even Iran.  Netanyahu is not necessarily interested in going that far and some of his fellow Likud members are also likely to resist some of this agenda.  But it is a rather motley group.  Israelis in the centre  and on the left are not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking about what lies ahead.

If the results hold up and Netanyahu can enter coalition agreements with these three partners, he is likely to have a reasonably stable government for the next 3-4 years, even if it is one that generates lots of negative publicity and makes some very unpopular decisions.  I hope that saner heads will prevail and  that the government will act in a reasonably measured fashion.  if it does not, we may see a tech "brain drain" and enormous damage to the Israeli economy and world image.  

Some are still hoping that, somehow, overnight, the numbers will magically change.  As the  evening progresses, this seems to be less and less likely.  It is far more likely that in the coming weeks, we will see the reinstallation of Prime Minister Netanyahu - a reincarnation that seems likely to  seek vindication, vengance and most importantly, historical rehabilitation.  

I wish Medinat Yisrael (the State of Israel) and Am Yisrael (the people of Israel) the best of luck.

Less Than Two Weeks Until Israeli Elections...

Itamar Ben-Gvir (Rueters)

We are officially into the period that is called "after the Holidays" in Israel, where everyone is supposed to attend to the list of things that they have been putting off.  The holiday period began with Rosh Hashanah on September 26, 2022 and has now ended with Simchat Torah on October 17, 2022, the last day of "Yom Tov" until Passover.  It would be nice to spread the holidays out a bit more.  Although Chanukah is in December, it is a "minor" holiday - so Israelis do not generally get any paid days off at that time.  We would do well to pick up the Canadian example - and turn a bunch of weekends into long weekends for no particularly discernible reason - other than to give people a bit of a break.

For many Israelis, not much work took place during this holiday period.  Universities hadn't yet reopened, many people took extended vacations out of the country and people were generally in holiday mode.  This whole time period occurred during an election campaign, which also seemed to be operating at a much slower pace.

But now, it is back to work, back to school, back to the grind and back to the election campaign. Less than two weeks to go until the election (which is actually a national holiday in Israel) and no defined public holidays for some time, other than election day itself.

So in preparation for the big day, I have put together a bit of a rundown on the competing parties with some running commentary.  If you are not particularly interested in the upcoming Israeli elections - I will be writing another blog shortly on some other topics - so I guess you can skip this one - though I'll try to make it as digestible as I can.

If you have been reading my blogs over the years, you will recall that I have written several of these before.  Some of the content will remain fairly similar since many of the parties are still the same.  But some parties have changed and there have been some other shake ups.  In a way, I think there is less to cover this time around since there are fewer parties.  There are 11 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset and two more that have a chance but are likely to miss the cut off.  While this is still quite a bit in comparison to the number of parties in Canada, the U.S. or many other places, it is somewhat more manageable than it has been in recent years.

So here goes....

A Look at the List of Parties:

1.    The Likud

Led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi"), the Likud is poised to garner the most seats of any party running, which is also the situation in the current Knesset.  Current polls have put the  Likud party at anywhere between 30 and 35 seats.  Interestingly, two polls that were released yesterday were the ones that had Likud at 30 and 31 seats, the lowest showing for Likud in several months.

Likud is a right of centre party emphasizing somewhat free market economics, a hard line position towards the Palestinians and a willingness to compromise on just about anything in the social-economic sphere with the ultra-orthodox parties in order to attain power.  

Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving Prime Minister, having served as Prime Minister for more than 15 years in total.  He knows his way around an election campaign. At the same time, he is in the midst of a criminal trial on three sets of charges including bribery, deception and breach of public trust.  It is hard to read how the trial is going since much of it is not open to the public and it is such a long trial.  But there is no indication that it is going to end any time soon although some plea bargain negotiations have taken place.

In order to form a government, the Likud will need to combine their 30-35 seats with a sufficient additional number to reach 61 (the required majority in the 120 seat Knesset) by entering coalition agreements with other parties.  According to recent polls, Bibi and his potential partners are likely to wind up with a total of between 58 and 62 seats so it is really quite a toss-up.

Netanyahu has been running an energetic and interesting campaign.  He has released a biography - just three weeks before the election - in English and Hebrew.  He has held write-in contests and visited in the Sukkahs of winning Israeli families across the country.  He has run an extremely active twitter and social media campaign and has avoided being interviewed.

Despite his ongoing legal troubles, Bibi has managed to reign in his Likud party and keep a lid on any public dissent.  It is quite comparable to what Trump has been able to do in the U.S. with the Republican party, though Trump has probably faced more internal dissent than Bibi.  

The focus of Bibi's campaign has been to portray Prime Minister Yair Lapid as "weak" and a "sell-out."  For Bibi and the Likud, the campaign has not been particularly ideological.  He has attacked Lapid and the left wing parties, Meretz and Labour, arguing that they will sell out Israel to the Arabs and the Arab parties.  He has attacked Ayelet Shaked with the same line of attack.  But he has also had to fend off the extremists to his right by moving a bit to the centre on some social issues.  

I would say that his messages have lacked cohesion but there is a common theme.  It is mainly about getting Bibi back into power and finding a way to resolve his legal issues.  It is the cult of personality that "only Bibi" can run the country.  

As of now, it seems that the odds are pretty close to 50-50 that he will be able to form a government.  One option is that Likud and its coalition partners - the two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party - will get more than 61.  If that is the case, Israel will have the furthest right government that it has ever had in power.  It will be a government in which Bibi will be at the left (or even far left) of the governing coalition.

A second option is that the Likud and its bloc will fall just short - at 58-60.  This might produce a stalemate and another election.  Alternatively - one of the parties in the opposition might agree to make a deal and join the government. As of now, it is hard to imagine which party would do that.  I don't believe that it would be Yesh Atid or Meretz but it is possible that some of the members of Gantz's party, the "national unity" party could be pursuaded with the right offer.  They will have a very hard time joining a government with the RZ party but stranger things have happened in Israeli political history.  Likud will also lobby the Labour party and the Ra'am party with various offers.  

My conclusion is that the Likud has the best chance of forming a government unless the poll numbers change drastically.  If Likud cannot form a government, there is a reasonable chance that there will be another election.  The current governing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, seems unlikely to muster sufficient support but that is the third most likely outcome.

2. Yesh Atid

Led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid is the second largest party according to every poll that has been issued.  The party is a centrist party, willing to enter into coalition agreements with parties across the political spectrum. Yesh Atid is very strong on anti-corruption measures and is one of the few parties that is unwilling, under any circumstances, to provide a "get out of jail free card" to Bibi.  

According to recent polls, Yesh Atid is running at between 23 and 26 seats.  The two most recent polls put them at 25.

Lapid has so far run a fairly low key campaign.  He has focused on performing his duties as Prime Minister.  Over the past few weeks, that has included negotiating a territorial waters deal with Lebanon to address the issue of natual gas reservoirs in disputed waters.  He has also been pushing for a more pro-Ukranian Israeli policy and more of a break from Israeli relations with Russia.  This would contrast with Bibi who prides himself on his strong relationship with Putin and has been eerily silent on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yesh Atid will probably ramp up its campaign over these crucial weeks but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful.  Lapid has been careful not to attack the parties on his left too much because some of them are perilously close to not passing the electoral threshhold.  At the same time, he would like to have sufficient army and military credibility to retain support of the centre-right.  I would imagine that he will ramp up the attacks on Bibi and corruption over the next two weeks, while also emphasizing the extreme nature of the government that Bibi would form if he wins the election.

As of now, it seems unlikely that Yesh Atid can win this election.  I think they would need to get to 30 or 31 seats, which they don't seem to have.  Even then, they would also need their coalition partners to have enough to reach 61.  I guess we will have to see what Lapid can do over the next two weeks of campaigning and whether he can close the gap.  If he can't, his next best option is a stalement - which is almost as good as a win.  Lapid would continue to be the caretaker Prime Minister, another election would be called three or four months down the road and the pressure would probably increase on Bibi to step down.  At some point, if Bibi doesn't win, the dissent in his party is likely to start to grow.  

So overall, a win for Lapid and his coaltion does not look likely  - I think less than 20%.  But the chance of a stalemate is close to 40% and that is probably close enough to a win for Lapid.  That is, as long as none of his coalition partners bolt and join Bibi.

3. National Unity

This is Benjamin Gantz's party that was formerly "Blue and White" and includes Gideon Sa'ar.  The party is chock full of military - including the leader himself.  Politically they are centre-right, a bit to the right of Yesh Atid on most issues.  In fact, a number of the National Unity members are former Likud members who might even like to run for Likud if it was led by a different leader.  

Gantz has in the past buckled and formed a rotation government deal with Bibi, though as we know, Bibi took his turn and then collapsed the government before Gantz could become Prime Minister by refusing to pass a budget.  This National Unity party is running at a solid 11-12 seats.

They have been running as the party that could be the alternative to Netanyahu since they maintain that they would be more attractive to the ultra-orthodox than Lapid.  With all due respect to Gantz, I don't see it.  He is not a charismatic leader and from where I sit, seems to have little chance of forming the government.

His party stole Bibi's slogan outright and ran on the slogan "Only Gantz can do it" - which was Bibi's slogan the past few elections.  His party has also plastered posters everywhere saying "After him" or "Follow him" I suppose.  But since very few people see him as a strong leader, these posters seem to be somewhat comical.  

I think there is a chance that this party could end up with 9 or 10 seats.  However, in order to form a government, Lapid needs Gantz's party to have a good showing and wind up in the 11-12 range - while getting 30-32 himself.  It's tough call since these two parties are fighting over some of the same voters.

4. Religious Zionists

The biggest growth for any party is in the support for the Religious Zionist party, which is a coalition of three different far right parties.  The party is led by Betzalel Smotrich, an extreme nationalist.  He advocates running the State of Israel based on "Torah law."  He at one point declared himself to be a "proud homophobe" and generates all kinds of controveries just about every time he speaks.  Just this week, he proposed legislation that would remove the offences of breach of trust and deception from the Israeli criminal code, which would all but ensure that Bibi's trial would end.   

The party also features Itamar Ben Gvir, another gun-toting extremist, who has a history of extremism and involvement with the Kahanist movement.  Ben Gvir has, in the past, advocated expelling "disloyal" Arabs from Israel.

This fine collection of folks is currently polling at numbers between 12 and 15 seats.  If they wind up with those numbers, they will be indespensible to any coalition that Bibi might put together and will demand cabinet seats.  

This would certainly create significant international pressure.  A government with such far-right extremists would greatly harm Israel's image, not to mention the domestic damage that it would engender.

Some of this support has come from people who previously supported Bennett's party, the "Jewish Home," which is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  The RZ party also received boosts in its support as a result of riots in Lod, Acre and other parts of Israel where Israeli Arabs took part in violent acts against Jewish civilians in Israeli cities. Apparently, there are also many young Israelis poised to vote for this party.

I think we should all be concerned.  I would imagine that many people will refuse to tell polsters that they are voting for the RZ party.  I think they could wind up with 15-17 seats.  If they take those seats from Likud votes, that still might not change the overall bloc numbers.  But a government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in its cabinet is frightening indeed.

The Israeli TV show "Eretz Nehederet" ("Its a wonderful country") satirized the prospect of a Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government by using a clip called "Springtime for Hitler" from the show The Producers.  Here is the clip in case you are interested - though I don't think there are subtitles.  Brilliant but frightening satire in my view....

5. Shas and 6. Torah Judaism

Shas and Torah Judaism are two ultra-orthodox parties.  

Shas is led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and appeals to Jews of "Mizrahi" (eastern) origin - i.e. sephardic Jews.  For some reason, Shas also gets a lot of support from non-ultra-orthodox Israelis.  They claim that they are a socially activist party - out to help the poor get better access to medical care, religious education, food etc.,  Shas is polling at 7-8 seats which it seems to get consistently no matter what else is happening.  They have pledged to stick with Bibi, who will be happy to pay just about any price that they demand for their support.

Torah Judaism is an ultra-religious party mainly supported by Jews of western origin ("Ashkenazim").  They are more focused on getting money for Yeshivas, implementing stricter religious laws, defending the rabbinate and avoiding military service.  Their leaders have also faced criminal charges on several occasions and they are as likely as anyone else to make outrageous comments about gays, women, reform Jews and anyone else who is not ultra-orthodox.  The are polling at 6-7 seats and are also committed to joining Bibi for the right price.  However, some Torah Judaism members have speculated, out loud, that they might consider joining another government if the only alternative was being part of the opposition.  So there may be a narrow window here.  If Bibi can't form a government, another group might be able to buy the support of Torah Judaism.  This is where Gantz comes in.  He seems to think he can convince both Shas and Torah Judaism to separate from Bibi and join his party as part of a coaltion.

However, using Gantz's math, lets say he gets 13 seats.  Add the 14-15 from Shas and Torah Judaism - and that gets us to 27-28.  He would need to get Lapid on side - with 25-30 and then some of the other left parties - which are somewhat anti-ultra Orthodox.  Again, I don't see this happening but I suppose anything is possible.

7. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home)

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, this party has historically been supported by Russian speaking Israelis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected support for the party since Lieberman, in the past, has been a strong Putin supporter.  He would like to keep Israel close to neutral in the war but this has started to create a backlash, especially among Russian speakers with Ukrainian origins.  Lieberman is seen has having done a fairly good job as finance minister in the current government and is likely to support Lapid again.  The party tends to be to the right on national security issues but avowedly secular on state-religion issues.  In Israeli political terms, that means that they see eye to eye with the anti-Haredi left on some issue but are closely aligned with Likud views (or even more right wing views) on some other issues - including issues involving the Palestinians.  They are polling at 5-7 seats.

8. Meretz and 9. Labor

These two parties are the stalwarts of the Israeli left.  Labor has traditionally been aligned with the Histadrut the largest workers' union in Israel. It is currently led by Merav Michaeli who has also brought a strong general equality focus to the party. The party is polling in the range of 4 to 6 seats.  It is most likely to join a government with Lapid and highly unlikely to consider joining Bibi.  

Meretz has traditionally been the most left wing Israeli party with a focus on secularism and equality and has been a strong advocate for a resolution with the Palestinians as well as for Arab-Jewish equality within the state.  The most recent leader of Meretz, Nitzan Horowitz, has served in the cabinet of the current government.  He stepped down after the election was called and was replaced by Zehava Gal-On who has pledged to bring the party "back to its roots."  Meretz is likely to support a Yesh Atid government and highly unlikely to join Netanyah or any government with the ultra-religious.  They are polling at 4 to 6 seats.

10. Hadash-Ta'al and 12. Bal'ad

For the past few elections, three Arab Israeli parties have run under one umbrella as the "United Arab List" or the "United Joint List."  They have been able to muster as many as 12 to 15 seats.  This year, they had a falling out and one party, the most extremist, "Bal'ad" left the group. Balad is now running at less than 2% and will most likely not make the cut off.  Hadash Ta'al is polling at 4 seats, which seems suprisingly low but is probably due to significant Arab Israeli apathy for the coming elections.  Hadash Ta'al has never taken an active role in an Israeli government though they have supported legislation and votes "from the outside."  While Balad was unwilling to be part of any Israeli government in any circumstances, Hadash Ta'al might look to the recent Ra'am example and try to negotiate itself into the government.  The right wing Jewish parties have argued that this would be illegitimate since Hadash Ta'al are generally anti-Zionist parties.  Hadash Ta'al would have to be prepared to accept Israel as a Jewish state to enter the government.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to take this step.  At a minimum these parties could be the key to preventing Bibi from forming a government.

13. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, Ra'am played an active role in the most recent Israeli government, the first time ever that an Arab Israeli party formed an active part of a governing coalition.  Although there were hiccups, Ra'am would almost certainly join Lapid again if that could lead to a government being formed.  Ra'am is currently polling at about 4 seats.  On social and economic issues, they are further to the right than Hadash Ta'al since Ra'am party members are religious Muslims.  Hadash Ta'al tend to be more secular socialists.  In the past, Bibi had tried to negotiate with Ra'am.  At this point, however, the RZ party is likely to be a key component of any government that Bibi might form.  And they have stated repeatedly and emphatically that they will not join a government with Ra'am or any other Arab Israeli parties.  So Ra'am's only option will be to join a Lapid government (or a Gantz government if can come up with a credible option).

14. Habayit Hayehudi

This is former Prime Minster Bennett's party.  He has left politics.  The party is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  This was once a religious Zionist party, but Shaked is avowedly secular.  She is on the right of political spectrum but she took an active role in the most recent government as a cabinet minister.  She has now said that all of that was a mistake and that she shouldn't have joined.  One of her campaign slogans stated that "everything is forgiven on Yom Kippur" and she has publicly apologized for "sinning against her voters."  They don't seem to be listening or granting the repentance that she is seeking.  She is well under the requisite threshhold according to every poll that has been released.  She is willing to join a Bibi-led government if she gets past the threshold.  Her willingness to do this - leaves potential voters wondering why they should vote for her instead of just voting for Bibi.

Conclusion

Given all of this math, there are aren't too many realistic possibilities.  But here they are, handicapped by an amateur (yours truly)...just for you lucky readers.

1. Bibi forms a government with 61+ including the two Haredi parties and the RZ party.  38%

2. Stalemate - and a new election is called - 32%

3. Lapid forms a government with or without the support of Hadash/Ta'al - 20%

4. Gantz forms a government, with one or both of the Haredi parties - 5%

5. Some other government or option that I haven't thought of....5%.

Of course it is impossible to measure how well I do - since if any one of these occur - we will never really know how likely that event was - only that it actually occurred.   

I might adjust my odds as the election gets closer based on news, events and newer polls.  But for now. buckle up.  It should be a bumpy ride and I think there is a good chance that we will not really know where things are headed until at least a few weeks after the election, which is taking place on November 1, 2022.

I hope that you have found this useful.  I will probably send out another blog shortly addressing some issues with much less politics.  Wishing everyone a terrific 5783 and all the best in this "after the holidays" period.

LSAT Style Israel Election Puzzle 2021 and Other News

The Israeli election will be held on March 23, 2021.  To get you ready for the election, I have come up with an LSAT  style problem that you could work on starting next week.  This problem may be so complex, depending on actual results, that I am giving you a head start so that you can begin working on it even before the election results are formally announced.

Just a refresher about the problem style.  To get into law school, you have to write the LSAT.   One of the sections is a series of logic questions.  Something like this:

There are 8 people at a table, A through H.  

A hates B and C and would prefer to sit near F.

D will only sit between B and E and or between A and G.

C must sit directly across from E.

F and G must sit at least two seats apart from each other.

The table is a rectangle with 3 seats on each side and 1 on each end.

Which of the following statements is true?  (I'm not going to list all the statements). (Eg. F can sit next to E, G must eat Sushi, B cannot sit across from H, etc., True or False...)

I did reasonably well on the LSAT but that was a few years  ago.  Okay, many years ago...

Here is the more complicated 2021 Israeli election version....

The Israeli Knesset has 120 seats and you need a combination of at least 61 elected Knesset members to form a government.

A.   The Sephardi Ultra-Religious Shas party (Estimated to get 7 or 8) will only agree to a government formed by Likud (Bibi - estimated at 28-32).  They will absolutely not agree to go with Yesh Atid (Lapid)(Estimated at 18-22) or Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) (Estimated at 7-8);

B.  The right wing New Hope party (Saar) (Estimated at between 7 and 9) will absolutely not go with Likud.  However, they will go with just about anyone else other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

C.  The right wing secularist party Yisrael Beitenu will not go with either of the two Ultra-Religious parties, Shas or United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 7-8) but will go with just about any other parties, other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

D.  The centrist Yesh Atid (Lapid) will go with any other parties other than Likud and the far right Religious Zionist Party (Ben-Gvir) (Estimated at 4-5 if they make it in to the Knesset).  

E. The left wing Labour Party (Michaeli) (Estimated at 5-7) and left wing secularist Meretz (Horowitz) (Estimated at 4-5 if they pass) will not go with Likud or the Religious Zionist party.  They will recommend Lapid and they might agree to go with Yamina (Bennett) (Estimated at 9 to 12) or New Hope.

F. The far right wing Yamina party will not go with Meretz or the two Arab parties (estimated at 9 to 13 and 4-5 respectively if the 4-5 group passes).  Yamina will not agree to join a government led by Yesh Atid.  They don't rule out joining a government  led by New Hope or Likud.  They don't rule out "allowing" Yesh Atid to join a government that they  lead.

G. The extreme right wing Religious Zionist Party will recommend Likud and wants to join a Likud-led government.  Bibi says they can be in the government but not get any cabinet posts.  Lapid, Meretz, Labour, and the Arab Parties have ruled out joining a government with the Religious Zionist Party.  The Religious Zionist Party says that it will not join any government that is supported by the Arab Parties.

H. The Ultra-Religious, Ashkenazi, United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 6-8) will recommend Likud.  They might join New Hope, Yamina or even Yesh Atid with the right offer.  

I. The centrist Blue and White Party (Ganz) (estimated at 4-5 if they pass the threshold) say they will not go with Likud again....and that they will recommend Yesh Atid to form the government.  But for the right price, they might change their minds.  Though they swear they  won't.

J.  The Arab parties are unlikely to join any potential coalition formally.  However, they might support a government explicitly or tacitly from the outside or perhaps this could be one of the first times that they actually join the government.  As listed above, some of the parties including Yamina and Religious  Zionists insist that they will not join a government that is in any way reliant on the support of the Arab parties.

Starting on Tuesday night or early Wednesday next week, you can take all of this and try to figure out how to come up with a governing coalition agreement that has at least 61 members.  You have four weeks though you can apply for an extension of three more weeks.  You can offer any combination of cabinet posts, legislative promises, cash for constituents, future government posts and, pretty much any other enticements that  you think of to get the different parties to change their positions on who they are willing to sit with.  Remember, you don't necessarily have to commit  your promises to writing and, even if you do, you certainly don't have to honour them all later.

Ready...Go!.

In other news, an anonymous group installed a statute of Bibi in central Tel-Aviv, looking like Golem from Lord of the Rings....Some have suggested it is a picture of Bibi in a prison cell. 

No one has claimed credit and the statute was removed, fairly quickly.  It is not the first time that protest artists have unveiled statues of Bibi.   I'm not going to list all of the different interpretations that have been suggested of this particular sculpture.

In other news, restaurants across Israel are opened for business, the infection rate is rapidly declining, the rate of people becoming seriously ill is rapidly declining and the vast majority of new cases, including those who have become seriously ill, are people who were not vaccinated.  Things are looking very promising as the vaccine rollout continues.  This may translate to a very optimistic outlook for North America and other parts of the world that are properly administering the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Not sure that these results  will apply to people innoculated with the other available vaccines or in cases where governments administer vaccines without following the proper timelines for doing so.

Pesach is 10 days away.  It is unusual this year with a Saturday night start which makes things that much more difficult for people who observe the holiday.  All of the dishes will need to be changed over one day early on Friday - and bread eating becomes an issue on Friday night and Saturday morning.  Although it is permissible, it gets a bit tricky where the hametz (leavened products) have already been removed from the house and symbolically burned.  I suppose we can eat some bread on the balcony just before the meal....

As you know, Passover is observed differently in Israel - only one Seder instead of two.  As of now, it looks like many people are planning to have large family gatherings, perhaps even "pre-Covid" size  and that plan is likely to be blessed by Bibi himself, along, of course, with his ultra-religious coalition partners, unless infection rates start increasing rapidly between now and next week.

I couldn't resist mentioning that one of the parties running in this election, the Shas party, has been using this lovely slogan "Choose God, Vote for the Shas Party."  They have also been proclaiming that it is a "Mitzvah" (a good deed, according to Jewish law) to vote for Shas.  The accompanying picture for these campaign slogans is one of the  former Rabbis and inspiration for Shas, Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph who died in 2013.  In Israel, we are used to seeing pictures of the deceased Lubavitch Rebbe, Schneerson, with the slogan "Long Live the Messiah," plastered on buses and buildings.  But Shas seems to have outdone the Lubavitch and actually linked Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph to God rather than to a mere messiah.  

I guess we will see soon enough if the outstretched hand of the Lord will ensure that Shas and Bibi are able to form a government together and bless them all with "Get Out of Jail Free" cards so that they don't have to waste valuable time facing ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would indeed be ironic if the Lord were to bless the secular parties instead of the Ultra-Orthodox after such earnest supplications, but I guess His plan will only be revealed in the coming weeks, maybe months.  Either way, it is worth remembering that Pesach is the "Holiday of Freedom,"  which in this case could mean freedom for Bibi or alternatively, freedom for Israel from Bibi.  Israeli voters, observant and non-observant, believers and non-believers, Jewish and non-Jewish, will soon decide.  

I will try to write one or two more  blogs over the next week or so with all of the exciting election news.  Wishing  everyone the best of health and all the best in preparing for Pesach or other upcoming holidays that you may be celebrating.

Pre-Passover Blog - Election Analysis and Vaccine Update

 

This picture was taken earlier this week.  Just after Purim ended, the Matzahs arrived - signalling the pending arrival of Passover (Pesach).  Stores here don't seem to go as crazy as the stores in Toronto with Kosher sections.  They don't cover the shelves with paper or otherwise close off the "Kosher  for Passover " areas hermetically.  But they do carry quite a variety of products.  And just as Pesach arrives, they actually seal off all of the  non-Pesach products so you can't even buy them for 7 days unless you go to an Arab area or a part of Israel in which the stores are willing to take their chances with law enforcement.  It doesn't really affect us since we observe the holiday but some people go out of their way during  Pesach to drive to a nearby Arab down and have some pita and humus.  For the most part, the only "pita" you can get in many parts of Israel during Pesach is made with potato flour (sometimes corn flour for the kitnyot eaters) and it may not be particularly tasty.

This year, as Pesach is about to arrive, we have quite a bit going on in Israel.  As you may know, we have an election scheduled for March 23, 2021.  It will be the fourth election in the past 3 years and, if the polls are to be believed, it is unlikely to result in a stable government.  So we may face a fifth election soon enough.

Election News and Analysis

There are 14 parties runnning for election in the 120-seat Israeli Knesset.  Israel has a proportional election system in which everyone simply votes for the party of their choice.  There are no ridings, districts or other divisions of the country.  The cut-off percentage for making it into the  Knesset is 3.5%, which ensures that a party has 4 seats if it makes it into the Knesset.  If a party that is running winds up with less than that, their votes are simply allocated on a percentage basis to the parties that made it in.

If you would like to follow along with all of the latest polls, this Wikipedia link shows the latest poll results.  According to most of the latest polls, 13 parties are likely to make it into the Knesset.   The question is - what happens the day after the election with such a wide variety of parties?

At  this point in time, Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") and his Likud party are  the clear front-runners with most polls estimating that they will get between 28 and 32 seats.  After that, the fun begins.  To form a government, the party must come up with a coalition of at least 61 seats to have the confidence of the Knesset.  

Bibi can count on the support of both of Israel's ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism.  Both parties have pledged their eternal loyalty to Bibi in exchange for promises to fund yeshivas, support the ultra-religious establishment and ensure that the ultra-religious have key cabinet portfolios.  Shas has been running campaign adds that compare Bibi to the Messiah and claim that a vote for Shas is a vote for the Kadosh Baruch Hu (a vote for God).  These two parties combined are likely to get between 14 and 16 seats.  So that means that Bibi has between 42 and 48, depending on how things go.

After that, things get a bit murky.  There is a new, merged, far-right national religious party running, the Religious Zonist party ("RZ").  They are running close to the cut-off line in most polls but if they make it into the Knesset, they could wind up with 4 or 5 seats and they will happily support a Likud government.

This means that Bibi  could now be at between 42 and 53, depending on whether the RZ party makes it in and the general results.  Here, the options become challenging but not insurmountable.

One party that  is polling at between 10 and 13 seats is the "Yemina" ("Right") party, led by Naftali Bennett (a fellow Ra'anana resident).  (Though he lives on the "other side of the tracks," having made his fortune by selling shares of a successful high-tech company).  Bennett has stated that he would like to replace Bibi and become the Prime Minister.  At the same time, his attacks on Netanyahu have not been particularly vociferous.  His party is self-described as a solid right wing party - nationalist, pro-religious, free-market and in favour of signficant changes to the judicial system in Israel to limit the power of the Israeli Supreme Court. For the most part, his party is a natural ally of the Likud party and is likely to join Likud under the right conditions.

This means that with all of the above, Likud could be at between 52 and 66.  If they are over 61, they will almost certainly form a government under  Netanyahu's leadership.  Such a government would be made up of Likud, Yamina, RZ and the two ultra-religious parties.  It would be one of the most right wing governments in Israel's history.  It is likely  that this  government would agree to pass legislation granting Bibi immunity from his ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would also proceed with various right wing policies dealing with the Palestinians, issues of religion and state, limiting the power  of the courts to conduct judicial review  proceedings and  many other areas.  One commentator stated that this type  of government would put Israel somewhere between Hungary and Turkey - on a path towards fascism but not quite there.  Perhaps that anyalysis might be a bit extreme.  But from my perspective, this type of government would be very frightening.

If this collection of right  wing political parties winds up at between 52 and 59, things get really interesting.  They may be unresolvable and simply lead to another election.  But  again,  the actual numbers will be key.

If this "bloc," including Bennett winds up with 56 or less, they will have a very difficult time forming a  governmment. They would have to convince one of the other left or centre parties to  join the bloc, even though the other  parties have all vowed that they would not do so.  Bibi's options here would include convincing a 4 or 5 seat Blue and White party to join him, the "New Hope Party" which is made up of  former Likud members or, perhaps the Labour party.  Bibi has a formidable knack for working these situations out.  He would  play the different  parties against  each other and do whatever it takes  to get to 61.  Ironically,  he may  even  find a way to rely on a small 4 or 5 seat Arab party "Ra'am" that could make it in to the Knesset.  It is hard to imagine that  such a hard-core, far right government would agree to be beholden to a small anti-Zionist Arab party but Bibi is definitely willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power.

If he is able to do this and  create a coalition but  with parties  other than the "right-wing" parties, he may not be able to get his immunity bill passed.  And the other parties might temper the right wing agenda.   So this may be a slightly better alternative than the first scenario.  

Given the current polls one of these two scenarios seems to be the most likely outcome of the coming election.

The chance of the "anti-Bibi" parties  forming a government looks slim.  The Yesh Atid party is the current leader of this bloc and is running at between 18 and 21 seats.  They could, perhaps, count on the New  Hope party to join them, which could  add 9 to 12.  Add in the Labour party (4-7), the Israel Our Home  Party (7-9).  That all adds up to between 38 and 49.  If the left wing Meretz party passes the threshold with 4 or even 5 seats, that could get this bloc to 53 or 54.  Maybe they could also add in Blue and White, if it passes the threshold, with 4 or 5 seats.  On the low side, all of this only adds up to 46 seats.   On the high side, it adds up to 57.   But some of these parties are competing against  each other for votes, so it is unlikely that the number  would be as high as 57.  

Assuming this  "left-centre bloc"  obtains between 50 and 55, there would be two possible scenarios for forming a government.  One would be to rely on the support of the Arab party - the "Joint List" as supporting the  government from the  outside or as actually joining the government.  It is not clear that all of these bloc members would agree to this arrangement. In particular, the New Hope party may not agree.  

The other possibility would be to convince the Yamina  party to join the group.  As discussed above, they are idealogically much more  comfortable with Bibi.  Bennett seems to feel that he can offer his party's  support  to this bloc in exchange for  an  agreement that  he becomes the Prime Minister.  But negotiations over policies in this scenario would be extremely complicated and in my view, close to impossible.  Alternatively, he could  agree to join  a Lapid-led government in exchange for getting some fairly senior posts for himself and his senior party members.  This all seems unlikely unless Bibi's numbers are low enough to convince Bennett that he has no choice.

Lastly, there is a distinct chance that the split will be close to 50-50  and  no one  will be able to form a government.  We will then face the prospect of several weeks, if not months, of negotaitions, all while Israel is led by another  interim caretaker government.  Unfortunately, this sounds like a distinct possibility.

To add to all of this, the election is just three days before Pesach.  Everything closes down in Israel for  Pesach.  We  may not even have all of the official results of the election by the start of the holiday.  Buckle up - we are in for a very turbulent  period.

Positive News - Vaccine  Effectivenesss

On the positive side, a large percentage of the Israeli population has now been vaccinated with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.  The numbers of newly infected Israelis are dropping rapidly.  More importantly,  the numbers of people  who are  becoming seriously ill are also dropping.  Things have been opening up since Purim (Feb 25, 2021). Even after about two weeks  of many places opening up, the new infection rate has not skyrocketed as some predicted it might.

This past Sunday, Israel opened up restaurants.  Outdoor seating for those who have not been vaccinated  and indoor seating only for those who have a "green pass" to show that they have been jabbed.  Concert halls, sporting events, wedding halls and other event venues are all opening up for those who have a green pass.  I guess we will see over the next few weeks if the vaccine is as effective as it seems to be so far.

Bibi is putting  all of his eggs in the vaccine basket  for this political campaign.  If the rate of infection continues to dwindle, he will try to take credit for getting Israelis vaccinated ahead of most other countries and argue that this is something only he could have done.  Bibi will say that nothing else matters  - his corruption, the economic policies of the past year or two, the ultra-orthodox-secular tensions, and many other difficulties.  Instead, he will focus on two areas - one is the vaccines and the other is the peace-deal breakthroughs that Israel has had with the UAE, Bahrain and  Sudan.  If Israelis buy what Bibi is selling, he  could wind up at 35-40 seats which would allow  him to form a new government quite easily.  So far the polls suggest  that this has not happened but  we still have almost two weeks to go.

I will try to put together at least  one more blog just before the election and perhaps a few afterwards, in between getting ready for Pesach.

Wishing everyone the best of health!