Bibi's Victory Margin has Grown

We have had several election updates today from the Israeli election authority.  More than 90% of the ballots have been counted.  However, the remaining ballots may not be fully tabulated until tomorrow morning - or even early Friday.  My discussion of the early results appears in my previous blog and not much has changed.  But here are a few key points.

1.  The Netanyahu bloc is now sitting at a very comfortable 65 seats.  That breaks down to 32 for Likud (Bibi's party), 14 for the Religious Zionist party, 11 for Sha'as and 8 for the United Torah Judaism Party.  This is the "fully right wing government" that Bibi's supporters have dreamt of.

2.  The growth in the size of the Netanyahu bloc has come at the expense, partially, of Meretz, which is now sitting at less than 3.25% and unlikely to pass the electoral threshhold.  Although there is still a chance that this leftist secular bloc could pass the threshhold, most analysts have suggested that it looks unlikely given the make up of the remaining uncounted votes.

3.  The Arab party Bal'ad is also below the threshhold.  They are also unlikely to pass.  

4.  The Labour party is apparently very close to the threshold (just over) and is facing the possibility of falling below - which could strengthen Bibi even further.  They seem likely to scrape through but it will be close.

If Meretz and Bal'ad were to both pass, which seems highly unlikely, the Likud-led bloc could fall to as low as 61 seats.  That would still leave Likud and its bloc with a majority.

What's Next?

Bibi will now have 30 days to cobble together an official coalition.  Although there will definitely be in-fighting over key cabinet ministries, it seems likely that this bloc will be able to put things together within the alotted month.  There are lots of egos here, lots of likely demands and lots of disagreements.  But compared to past coalitions that Bibi has formed, this will be relatively easy.

Among the priorities and likely steps to be taken by this new government:

1. The appointment of a new Justice Minister, some new judges and some type of steps to be taken to end Bibi's trial.  The Religious Zionist party floated the prospect of introducing legislation to remove the criminal offences of corruption and breach of trust for sitting government members.  If passed, this would effectively end Bibi's trial;

2.  Elimination of the special tax on sugary beverages (coca cola etc.,) and non-resusable plastics and other disposable materials.  The ultra-religious have complained about these taxes which were introduced by the previous government. They claim that these special taxes were directed at them since they are the highest users of these products.  The tax on disposable goods was clearly implemented as an environmental measure.   The tax on sugary beverages was imposed as a response to growing obesity among young people.

3.  Significantly increased police presence in Arab-Israeli areas and increased army presence in Palestinian areas - in an effort to reduce violence in Arab-Israeli communities and in an effort to stop the current wave of Palestinian terror attacks.

4.  Immediate legislation or special measures to significantly increase the budgets (state funding) for Yeshiva students, ultra-religious organizations, and settlement/settler organizations.

Medium Term:

I think that it is reasonable to expect that we will see government action taken in a number of areas:

1.  I expect that the Religious Zionist party will push for widespread expansion of settlement activity throughout Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank").  The government is likely to offer low cost housing, incentives for young families (especially Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox families) to move to these areas.  This will enrage Palestinians and may well bring about a third (or fourth) "intifadah."

2.  Increased power for the ultra-orthodox Rabbinical establishment including increased funding.  This could reverse the changes that were made previously to demonopolize Kosher supervision, it could lead to a complete ban on any non-Orthodox activity at the Kotel (the Western Wall) and it could make conversion to Judaism even more difficult.  I would think, for example, the "Women of the Wall" are going to be in for a very rough time.

3.  A much more boisterous and aggressive foreign policy.  We could see an increase in attacks on Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and Syria and quite possibly, increased action taken against Iran.  It is unclear how this government will position itself with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Netanyahu has always had a good relationship with Putin and Israel may be reluctant to become involved in any way in support of Ukraine.

4.  Coalition members of the incoming members have called for widespread "judicial reform."  Aside from filling the benches with right wing judges, I'm not sure what else they have planned here.  They may want further changes to the Israeli "Basic Law" to place more of an emphasis on the "Jewish" character of Israel and less of an emphasis on the "democratic" nature of the state - or on the principle of equality.

5.  If even some of these changes start to take place, Israel may well begin to face all sorts of criticism and international pressure - not only from other democratic countries but from Jews from around the world as well.

In the medium to longer term, if this coalition holds up, the Religious Zionist party will make more demands that will create tension between their party and Bibi.  Among its campaign platforms, the RZ party has, over the years, called for capital punishment for terrorists, government payments to "encourage" emigration of Arabs and Palestinians, significant changes to the Israeli legal system and other steps of the type that far right wing governments typically take.  I expect that some of the Likud members are likely to be uncomfortable with some of the demands made by the RZ coalition partners.

As an educated, westernized, English speaking politician, Netanyahu would probably be more comfortable forming a government with Gantz, Sa'ar and some of the other generals in Gantz's party, even Bennett, as opposed to a bunch of utra-orthodox and extremist politicians.  However, given his current legal troubles, and the bridges that he burned over the years with all of these people for different reasons, this was not an option so he is left to do the best with what he saw as the most promising opportunity.

Overall, Bibi ran a masterful campaign even though he and his party actually wound up with only 30-31 seats, which is lower than the numbers that they have had in the past.  The two big winners here are the Religious Zionist Party and Sha'as.  

The RZ party soaked up all of the votes that Bennett had in the past.  Bennett had run as a right wing leader but wound up in a coalition with centrist and leftist parties.  His voters were furious.  His party, which is now led by Ayelet Shaked, was eviscerated in this election.  The Shas party, despite having a leader who has been convicted twice of criminal offences, including a 2021 plea bargain deal, (or perhaps because of this) still managed to collect 10-11 seats.  That's an astounding number for this ultra-religious party but full credit to its leader, Aryah Deri, the certified fraudster.

There are several losers on the other side.  The biggest loser so far is Meretz, which may not even make the cut-off.   Their former leader, Nitzan Horowitz, served as the minister of education.  He resigned after the government fell.  Meretz brought back its past, less compromising leader, Zehava Gal'on.  She was obviously not the right choice. The Labour party and Lieberman's party are close to where they were previously though Lieberman has, in the past, reached numbers closer to 7 or 8 seats.  

For the Arab parties, the results are a disaster.  They disbanded their unified party and wound up throwing away four seats.  Having a total of only 8 or 9 Arab Israeli Knesset members is a major loss and will leave Israeli Arabs with a significantly reduced voice in state affairs.

I would also say that this was a disaster for Yair Lapid.  Although his party picked up 24 seats, which was an improvement, his move to the left probably contributed to the decline of the Meretz party - as well as to the increased strength on the right.  Lapid made several mistakes as election day approached.  His speech at the U.N. was ill-considered and made without a proper mandate.  His decision to sign off on a gas deal with Lebanon just weeks before an election was ill advised.  And his campaign, generally, was lacklustre.  While Bibi was running around the country visiting people in their homes and holding rallies, Lapid was much less visible.

In my view, to retain legitimacy, Lapid needs to open up his party to "primaries" and turn the party into a democratically functioning party rather than a one-man party.  He needs input from others towards developing medium and long term strategies and those strategies have to be formed with the equal input from a range of party members or new blood.  Even the leadership of the party should be contestable.

All of this being said, there may well be quite a bit of backlash once this new government eventually falls and the centre and centre-left will need a strong alternative to Bibi ready to jump into action and run an effective campaign.

Interesting and challenging times are ahead but, as I mentioned yesterday, Bibi is firmly in the driver's seat and everyone knows he is the boss.  He can't blame any government problems on anyone else at this point - he will have to take full responsibility for any actions that his government takes.  In effect, we will now get to see the "real Bibi."  

I will provide one more update once we have the absolute final results in, especially if anything changes.  At this point, however, there is a good chance that nothing will change dramatically.

Less Than Two Weeks Until Israeli Elections...

Itamar Ben-Gvir (Rueters)

We are officially into the period that is called "after the Holidays" in Israel, where everyone is supposed to attend to the list of things that they have been putting off.  The holiday period began with Rosh Hashanah on September 26, 2022 and has now ended with Simchat Torah on October 17, 2022, the last day of "Yom Tov" until Passover.  It would be nice to spread the holidays out a bit more.  Although Chanukah is in December, it is a "minor" holiday - so Israelis do not generally get any paid days off at that time.  We would do well to pick up the Canadian example - and turn a bunch of weekends into long weekends for no particularly discernible reason - other than to give people a bit of a break.

For many Israelis, not much work took place during this holiday period.  Universities hadn't yet reopened, many people took extended vacations out of the country and people were generally in holiday mode.  This whole time period occurred during an election campaign, which also seemed to be operating at a much slower pace.

But now, it is back to work, back to school, back to the grind and back to the election campaign. Less than two weeks to go until the election (which is actually a national holiday in Israel) and no defined public holidays for some time, other than election day itself.

So in preparation for the big day, I have put together a bit of a rundown on the competing parties with some running commentary.  If you are not particularly interested in the upcoming Israeli elections - I will be writing another blog shortly on some other topics - so I guess you can skip this one - though I'll try to make it as digestible as I can.

If you have been reading my blogs over the years, you will recall that I have written several of these before.  Some of the content will remain fairly similar since many of the parties are still the same.  But some parties have changed and there have been some other shake ups.  In a way, I think there is less to cover this time around since there are fewer parties.  There are 11 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset and two more that have a chance but are likely to miss the cut off.  While this is still quite a bit in comparison to the number of parties in Canada, the U.S. or many other places, it is somewhat more manageable than it has been in recent years.

So here goes....

A Look at the List of Parties:

1.    The Likud

Led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi"), the Likud is poised to garner the most seats of any party running, which is also the situation in the current Knesset.  Current polls have put the  Likud party at anywhere between 30 and 35 seats.  Interestingly, two polls that were released yesterday were the ones that had Likud at 30 and 31 seats, the lowest showing for Likud in several months.

Likud is a right of centre party emphasizing somewhat free market economics, a hard line position towards the Palestinians and a willingness to compromise on just about anything in the social-economic sphere with the ultra-orthodox parties in order to attain power.  

Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving Prime Minister, having served as Prime Minister for more than 15 years in total.  He knows his way around an election campaign. At the same time, he is in the midst of a criminal trial on three sets of charges including bribery, deception and breach of public trust.  It is hard to read how the trial is going since much of it is not open to the public and it is such a long trial.  But there is no indication that it is going to end any time soon although some plea bargain negotiations have taken place.

In order to form a government, the Likud will need to combine their 30-35 seats with a sufficient additional number to reach 61 (the required majority in the 120 seat Knesset) by entering coalition agreements with other parties.  According to recent polls, Bibi and his potential partners are likely to wind up with a total of between 58 and 62 seats so it is really quite a toss-up.

Netanyahu has been running an energetic and interesting campaign.  He has released a biography - just three weeks before the election - in English and Hebrew.  He has held write-in contests and visited in the Sukkahs of winning Israeli families across the country.  He has run an extremely active twitter and social media campaign and has avoided being interviewed.

Despite his ongoing legal troubles, Bibi has managed to reign in his Likud party and keep a lid on any public dissent.  It is quite comparable to what Trump has been able to do in the U.S. with the Republican party, though Trump has probably faced more internal dissent than Bibi.  

The focus of Bibi's campaign has been to portray Prime Minister Yair Lapid as "weak" and a "sell-out."  For Bibi and the Likud, the campaign has not been particularly ideological.  He has attacked Lapid and the left wing parties, Meretz and Labour, arguing that they will sell out Israel to the Arabs and the Arab parties.  He has attacked Ayelet Shaked with the same line of attack.  But he has also had to fend off the extremists to his right by moving a bit to the centre on some social issues.  

I would say that his messages have lacked cohesion but there is a common theme.  It is mainly about getting Bibi back into power and finding a way to resolve his legal issues.  It is the cult of personality that "only Bibi" can run the country.  

As of now, it seems that the odds are pretty close to 50-50 that he will be able to form a government.  One option is that Likud and its coalition partners - the two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party - will get more than 61.  If that is the case, Israel will have the furthest right government that it has ever had in power.  It will be a government in which Bibi will be at the left (or even far left) of the governing coalition.

A second option is that the Likud and its bloc will fall just short - at 58-60.  This might produce a stalemate and another election.  Alternatively - one of the parties in the opposition might agree to make a deal and join the government. As of now, it is hard to imagine which party would do that.  I don't believe that it would be Yesh Atid or Meretz but it is possible that some of the members of Gantz's party, the "national unity" party could be pursuaded with the right offer.  They will have a very hard time joining a government with the RZ party but stranger things have happened in Israeli political history.  Likud will also lobby the Labour party and the Ra'am party with various offers.  

My conclusion is that the Likud has the best chance of forming a government unless the poll numbers change drastically.  If Likud cannot form a government, there is a reasonable chance that there will be another election.  The current governing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, seems unlikely to muster sufficient support but that is the third most likely outcome.

2. Yesh Atid

Led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid is the second largest party according to every poll that has been issued.  The party is a centrist party, willing to enter into coalition agreements with parties across the political spectrum. Yesh Atid is very strong on anti-corruption measures and is one of the few parties that is unwilling, under any circumstances, to provide a "get out of jail free card" to Bibi.  

According to recent polls, Yesh Atid is running at between 23 and 26 seats.  The two most recent polls put them at 25.

Lapid has so far run a fairly low key campaign.  He has focused on performing his duties as Prime Minister.  Over the past few weeks, that has included negotiating a territorial waters deal with Lebanon to address the issue of natual gas reservoirs in disputed waters.  He has also been pushing for a more pro-Ukranian Israeli policy and more of a break from Israeli relations with Russia.  This would contrast with Bibi who prides himself on his strong relationship with Putin and has been eerily silent on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yesh Atid will probably ramp up its campaign over these crucial weeks but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful.  Lapid has been careful not to attack the parties on his left too much because some of them are perilously close to not passing the electoral threshhold.  At the same time, he would like to have sufficient army and military credibility to retain support of the centre-right.  I would imagine that he will ramp up the attacks on Bibi and corruption over the next two weeks, while also emphasizing the extreme nature of the government that Bibi would form if he wins the election.

As of now, it seems unlikely that Yesh Atid can win this election.  I think they would need to get to 30 or 31 seats, which they don't seem to have.  Even then, they would also need their coalition partners to have enough to reach 61.  I guess we will have to see what Lapid can do over the next two weeks of campaigning and whether he can close the gap.  If he can't, his next best option is a stalement - which is almost as good as a win.  Lapid would continue to be the caretaker Prime Minister, another election would be called three or four months down the road and the pressure would probably increase on Bibi to step down.  At some point, if Bibi doesn't win, the dissent in his party is likely to start to grow.  

So overall, a win for Lapid and his coaltion does not look likely  - I think less than 20%.  But the chance of a stalemate is close to 40% and that is probably close enough to a win for Lapid.  That is, as long as none of his coalition partners bolt and join Bibi.

3. National Unity

This is Benjamin Gantz's party that was formerly "Blue and White" and includes Gideon Sa'ar.  The party is chock full of military - including the leader himself.  Politically they are centre-right, a bit to the right of Yesh Atid on most issues.  In fact, a number of the National Unity members are former Likud members who might even like to run for Likud if it was led by a different leader.  

Gantz has in the past buckled and formed a rotation government deal with Bibi, though as we know, Bibi took his turn and then collapsed the government before Gantz could become Prime Minister by refusing to pass a budget.  This National Unity party is running at a solid 11-12 seats.

They have been running as the party that could be the alternative to Netanyahu since they maintain that they would be more attractive to the ultra-orthodox than Lapid.  With all due respect to Gantz, I don't see it.  He is not a charismatic leader and from where I sit, seems to have little chance of forming the government.

His party stole Bibi's slogan outright and ran on the slogan "Only Gantz can do it" - which was Bibi's slogan the past few elections.  His party has also plastered posters everywhere saying "After him" or "Follow him" I suppose.  But since very few people see him as a strong leader, these posters seem to be somewhat comical.  

I think there is a chance that this party could end up with 9 or 10 seats.  However, in order to form a government, Lapid needs Gantz's party to have a good showing and wind up in the 11-12 range - while getting 30-32 himself.  It's tough call since these two parties are fighting over some of the same voters.

4. Religious Zionists

The biggest growth for any party is in the support for the Religious Zionist party, which is a coalition of three different far right parties.  The party is led by Betzalel Smotrich, an extreme nationalist.  He advocates running the State of Israel based on "Torah law."  He at one point declared himself to be a "proud homophobe" and generates all kinds of controveries just about every time he speaks.  Just this week, he proposed legislation that would remove the offences of breach of trust and deception from the Israeli criminal code, which would all but ensure that Bibi's trial would end.   

The party also features Itamar Ben Gvir, another gun-toting extremist, who has a history of extremism and involvement with the Kahanist movement.  Ben Gvir has, in the past, advocated expelling "disloyal" Arabs from Israel.

This fine collection of folks is currently polling at numbers between 12 and 15 seats.  If they wind up with those numbers, they will be indespensible to any coalition that Bibi might put together and will demand cabinet seats.  

This would certainly create significant international pressure.  A government with such far-right extremists would greatly harm Israel's image, not to mention the domestic damage that it would engender.

Some of this support has come from people who previously supported Bennett's party, the "Jewish Home," which is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  The RZ party also received boosts in its support as a result of riots in Lod, Acre and other parts of Israel where Israeli Arabs took part in violent acts against Jewish civilians in Israeli cities. Apparently, there are also many young Israelis poised to vote for this party.

I think we should all be concerned.  I would imagine that many people will refuse to tell polsters that they are voting for the RZ party.  I think they could wind up with 15-17 seats.  If they take those seats from Likud votes, that still might not change the overall bloc numbers.  But a government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in its cabinet is frightening indeed.

The Israeli TV show "Eretz Nehederet" ("Its a wonderful country") satirized the prospect of a Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government by using a clip called "Springtime for Hitler" from the show The Producers.  Here is the clip in case you are interested - though I don't think there are subtitles.  Brilliant but frightening satire in my view....

5. Shas and 6. Torah Judaism

Shas and Torah Judaism are two ultra-orthodox parties.  

Shas is led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and appeals to Jews of "Mizrahi" (eastern) origin - i.e. sephardic Jews.  For some reason, Shas also gets a lot of support from non-ultra-orthodox Israelis.  They claim that they are a socially activist party - out to help the poor get better access to medical care, religious education, food etc.,  Shas is polling at 7-8 seats which it seems to get consistently no matter what else is happening.  They have pledged to stick with Bibi, who will be happy to pay just about any price that they demand for their support.

Torah Judaism is an ultra-religious party mainly supported by Jews of western origin ("Ashkenazim").  They are more focused on getting money for Yeshivas, implementing stricter religious laws, defending the rabbinate and avoiding military service.  Their leaders have also faced criminal charges on several occasions and they are as likely as anyone else to make outrageous comments about gays, women, reform Jews and anyone else who is not ultra-orthodox.  The are polling at 6-7 seats and are also committed to joining Bibi for the right price.  However, some Torah Judaism members have speculated, out loud, that they might consider joining another government if the only alternative was being part of the opposition.  So there may be a narrow window here.  If Bibi can't form a government, another group might be able to buy the support of Torah Judaism.  This is where Gantz comes in.  He seems to think he can convince both Shas and Torah Judaism to separate from Bibi and join his party as part of a coaltion.

However, using Gantz's math, lets say he gets 13 seats.  Add the 14-15 from Shas and Torah Judaism - and that gets us to 27-28.  He would need to get Lapid on side - with 25-30 and then some of the other left parties - which are somewhat anti-ultra Orthodox.  Again, I don't see this happening but I suppose anything is possible.

7. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home)

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, this party has historically been supported by Russian speaking Israelis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected support for the party since Lieberman, in the past, has been a strong Putin supporter.  He would like to keep Israel close to neutral in the war but this has started to create a backlash, especially among Russian speakers with Ukrainian origins.  Lieberman is seen has having done a fairly good job as finance minister in the current government and is likely to support Lapid again.  The party tends to be to the right on national security issues but avowedly secular on state-religion issues.  In Israeli political terms, that means that they see eye to eye with the anti-Haredi left on some issue but are closely aligned with Likud views (or even more right wing views) on some other issues - including issues involving the Palestinians.  They are polling at 5-7 seats.

8. Meretz and 9. Labor

These two parties are the stalwarts of the Israeli left.  Labor has traditionally been aligned with the Histadrut the largest workers' union in Israel. It is currently led by Merav Michaeli who has also brought a strong general equality focus to the party. The party is polling in the range of 4 to 6 seats.  It is most likely to join a government with Lapid and highly unlikely to consider joining Bibi.  

Meretz has traditionally been the most left wing Israeli party with a focus on secularism and equality and has been a strong advocate for a resolution with the Palestinians as well as for Arab-Jewish equality within the state.  The most recent leader of Meretz, Nitzan Horowitz, has served in the cabinet of the current government.  He stepped down after the election was called and was replaced by Zehava Gal-On who has pledged to bring the party "back to its roots."  Meretz is likely to support a Yesh Atid government and highly unlikely to join Netanyah or any government with the ultra-religious.  They are polling at 4 to 6 seats.

10. Hadash-Ta'al and 12. Bal'ad

For the past few elections, three Arab Israeli parties have run under one umbrella as the "United Arab List" or the "United Joint List."  They have been able to muster as many as 12 to 15 seats.  This year, they had a falling out and one party, the most extremist, "Bal'ad" left the group. Balad is now running at less than 2% and will most likely not make the cut off.  Hadash Ta'al is polling at 4 seats, which seems suprisingly low but is probably due to significant Arab Israeli apathy for the coming elections.  Hadash Ta'al has never taken an active role in an Israeli government though they have supported legislation and votes "from the outside."  While Balad was unwilling to be part of any Israeli government in any circumstances, Hadash Ta'al might look to the recent Ra'am example and try to negotiate itself into the government.  The right wing Jewish parties have argued that this would be illegitimate since Hadash Ta'al are generally anti-Zionist parties.  Hadash Ta'al would have to be prepared to accept Israel as a Jewish state to enter the government.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to take this step.  At a minimum these parties could be the key to preventing Bibi from forming a government.

13. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, Ra'am played an active role in the most recent Israeli government, the first time ever that an Arab Israeli party formed an active part of a governing coalition.  Although there were hiccups, Ra'am would almost certainly join Lapid again if that could lead to a government being formed.  Ra'am is currently polling at about 4 seats.  On social and economic issues, they are further to the right than Hadash Ta'al since Ra'am party members are religious Muslims.  Hadash Ta'al tend to be more secular socialists.  In the past, Bibi had tried to negotiate with Ra'am.  At this point, however, the RZ party is likely to be a key component of any government that Bibi might form.  And they have stated repeatedly and emphatically that they will not join a government with Ra'am or any other Arab Israeli parties.  So Ra'am's only option will be to join a Lapid government (or a Gantz government if can come up with a credible option).

14. Habayit Hayehudi

This is former Prime Minster Bennett's party.  He has left politics.  The party is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  This was once a religious Zionist party, but Shaked is avowedly secular.  She is on the right of political spectrum but she took an active role in the most recent government as a cabinet minister.  She has now said that all of that was a mistake and that she shouldn't have joined.  One of her campaign slogans stated that "everything is forgiven on Yom Kippur" and she has publicly apologized for "sinning against her voters."  They don't seem to be listening or granting the repentance that she is seeking.  She is well under the requisite threshhold according to every poll that has been released.  She is willing to join a Bibi-led government if she gets past the threshold.  Her willingness to do this - leaves potential voters wondering why they should vote for her instead of just voting for Bibi.

Conclusion

Given all of this math, there are aren't too many realistic possibilities.  But here they are, handicapped by an amateur (yours truly)...just for you lucky readers.

1. Bibi forms a government with 61+ including the two Haredi parties and the RZ party.  38%

2. Stalemate - and a new election is called - 32%

3. Lapid forms a government with or without the support of Hadash/Ta'al - 20%

4. Gantz forms a government, with one or both of the Haredi parties - 5%

5. Some other government or option that I haven't thought of....5%.

Of course it is impossible to measure how well I do - since if any one of these occur - we will never really know how likely that event was - only that it actually occurred.   

I might adjust my odds as the election gets closer based on news, events and newer polls.  But for now. buckle up.  It should be a bumpy ride and I think there is a good chance that we will not really know where things are headed until at least a few weeks after the election, which is taking place on November 1, 2022.

I hope that you have found this useful.  I will probably send out another blog shortly addressing some issues with much less politics.  Wishing everyone a terrific 5783 and all the best in this "after the holidays" period.

February 2021: Covid Update, Election Preview and...

We didn't have Groundhog Day in Israel but we had "Tu Be'Shvat" about a week ago - where we marked the "New Year of the Trees."  People plant trees, eat a variety of dried fruits and, of course, have a bit of wine, to mark this minor holiday, which has made a major comeback in Jewish life since the founding of the State of  Israel in 1948.  Many synagogues and even some  secular organizations hold variants of a Tu B'Shvat Seder - a meal during which a variety of different fruits are eaten, a variety of wines are consumed and there is lots of discussion about the environment as well as other contemporary Israeli issues.  I actually attended two different Zoom events with participants from all over the  world.  A different way to celebrate than most years.   But a nice holiday concept.

So here we are in February 2021, and I thought I would cover a few different topics, which will be familiar to the readers of this blog.  I'll try and think of a few different things to add at the end.

Covid-19 Developments

This type of update could probably take up a whole blog but I will try to keep it relatively short.   As you may know, Israel has been vaccinating its residents at a blazing pace (compared to many other countries).  At its peak, the inoculation rate was up to about 200,000 shots a day.  For a population of 9.5 million, that is a very promising rate.

In fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference about a month ago, where he promised Israelis that they would all be able to get  together with their extended families for Passover Seders in person this year.

In the  meantime, however, he warned that the virus was spreading at an alarming rate and the country needed a full shutdown.  So Israeli instituted a lockdown including a shutdown of the airport until the vaccination program could be closer to completion.

Weeks later, the virus is still spreading in Israel at an extraordinary rate.  54 people died over the weekend.  It is hard to project when things will really improve.  Experts are predicting that Netanyahu's Passover promise will not likely come to fruition and it may be a second consecutive year of Zoom Seders.  We will soon start to cook the virtual brisket.

According to some studies, the vaccinations are dramatically reducing the rate of infections for people over 60, of whom approximately 75% have been vaccinated.  But the virus is spreading rapidly among younger people, especially some of the mutated  versions of it.

On the good  news side, the Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv reported that it had developed a treatment that was successful in treating 29 of 31 seriously ill patients.  The hospital has requested approval to roll  out a wider test group and is confident that this relatively inexpensive treatment may be a very positive development.

At the same time, as the rate of vaccination continues to increase, Israel expects that the infection rate will begin to drop dramatically. It remains to be seen how long it will take to approach herd immunity or anything close to it.  Some commentators have estimated that it may not be until June or July 2021, even with the high rate of vaccination.

Despite all of this, including the high infection rate as of the time of writing, the government is reopening a  significant  part of the economy today - including many stores, hair salons, take out restaurants (up until now it was delivery only), and many schools.  There is an anticipation that there will be an increased infection rate over the coming weeks though the government is hoping that the vaccination rate will offset that.  I guess we may still wind up with a 4th closure.

Political Developments

As you might know, Israel has an election scheduled for March 23, 2021, the 4th election in the past 2 1/2 years.  This past Thursday was the deadline for the official entry of parties and  their respective slates.  A few newly formed  parties dropped out and there was also an amalgamation.  As of now, there are 14 different parties running.

The largest party is still Netanyahu's governing "Likud" party, a right wing nationalist party that is running at estimates of between 28 and 32 seats in the 120 seat Knesset.  There are also two ultra-orthodox parties that will almost certainly support  Netanyahu and they are estimated at having between 13 and 16 seats.  There is a newly merged ultra-right nationalist party running that is polling at between 0 and 5 seats.  It could be zero because the cut-off is 4 seats.  If a party  winds up with less than 3.5% of the popular vote, it does not make it into the Knesset and its votes are dispersed proportionately.  Netanyahu is hoping that this "Otzma-Noam" coalition makes it into the Knesset, since it would almost certainly support him.  So in this "Pro-Netanyahu" camp, early predictions put his potential coalition at between 41 and 53.  There are still more than 6 weeks to go, so a great deal can change.

Of course, Netanyahu would still need between 8 and 20 seats to put together a  coalition based on these numbers.  Where would that come from?  There are two more  right wing parties.

"Yamina" is a right wing party led by Naftali Bennett.  Yamina has been trying to outflank Netanyahu on the right.  It is crowded territory since it is also occupied by two other parties.  From interviews that I have seen, Yamina does not rule out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition, even though Bennett has Prime-Ministerial aspirations himself.  Nevertheless, they are predicted to get between 10 and 13 seats.  If they were to join Netanyahu, that could  get Likud to between 51 and 66.  Depending on actual numbers, that could be enough to form a very right wing government.

The other right wing party running is Gideon Saar's "New Hope" party which is a split-off from the  Likud.  This is the first election in which New Hope will be running.  Its leader has vowed not to enter a coalition with Netanyahu and has signed a live televised pledge to confirm his intentions.  But, of course, Israelis all remember the last election.  The previous  leader of the Labour party, Amir Peretz had vowed that he would  not join Netanyahu.  He had a large bushy  moustache that  was his trademark image.  He shaved  it as part of a "read my lips" promise not to join Netanyahu.  But shortly after the election, he joined in exchange for a cabinet position....He is now no longer the leader of the Labour party - or even a member.  

Saar is a very different candidate and has much more support  than Peretz had.  But ultimately, his agenda is very similar to Netanyahu's - much closer to Netanyahu than Peretz was.  He supports a continued expansion of the  settlements.  He is happy to enter a  coalition with the ultra-Orthodox.  He has, at times, defended  Netanyahu against some of Netanyahu's criminal charges.  In short, the only real difference is that he claims that is "not-corrupt" and is willing to put the country's needs ahead of his own.  Saarry but I have a hard time seeing it.  I believe that if Saar's only hope of being in the government is with a Netanyahu led coalition, he will make that decision even though he may negotiate a better deal than Gantz signed.  Saar's party is running at between 11 and 16 estimated seats, though I sense that their support could decrease between now and the election.

So at this  point, it looks like Netanyahu could have potential coalition members of between 62 and 80 assuming that he can leverage Yamina and Saar against each other, or get them both to join.  One of these options seems likely.

All that being said, the numbers can still change quite a bit.  These are, after all, only polls.

The leader of the opposition group is now Yair Lapid, still heading the Yesh Atid ("there is a Future") party.   Lapid's party seems to have some increasing momentum and is running at between 14 and 17 seats.   The party still has room to grow but there is a great deal of antagonism towards Lapid, especially among the Ultra-Orthodox and even many in the Orthodox sector.  For the last election, Lapid ran with Benny Gantz of the Blue and White Party.  Together, the two parties  received more than 30 seats.  But Gantz's half  of the party cut a deal with Netanyahu, joined the government and left the merged party.  As a result, the remaining part of Blue and White, led by Gantz, is polling at between 0 and 5 seats down from about 15.  They have been eviscerated since Gantz went against his whole raison d'etre and  joined Netanyahu.  Lapid, who refused to join Bibi and will continue to refuse, has kept his party's support.  He has also retained much more support from the public than Gantz.

The right wing secular party Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman is polling at 6-8 seats.  This party could  join Lapid or Saar but has said it will not join a Netanyahu  government.  It has held out  now for 3 elections so there is no reason to assume that they will fold.

Two left wing parties, Labour and Meretz are running at between 10 and 14 seats total.   Labour has had a resurgence. It has elected a woman as its  leader, the only Israeli party with a woman at the helm.  Merav Michaeli promptly held democratic elections for  the Labour slate and staked  out more traditional Labour-supported positions.  Under her leadership, the party has been growing and could rise much higher than its current polling numbers of 5 to 9 seats.  Labour will certainly not join Netanyahu but could  join Lapid or Saar if either have viable options to cobble a governing coalition together, provided  that  the Labour party can extract a reasonable  price for its support.

Meretz is a left wing secular party with focus on equality.  It has remained constant at about 5 seats and would also be willing to join Lapid or Saar  under the right conditions.  Meretz will definitely not join a Netanyahu led government.

Adding all of these numbers up, as of now, it appears that a centre-left coalition could cobble together between 35 and 40 seats.  If they were to add in the "New Hope Party" that could get them to between 50 and 55 seats.  Still short of being able to form a government. 

Rounding out the list of parties - we now have a fracture in the Arab parties.  In the last three elections, they ran as a coalition and received as many as 16 seats.  They have now splintered into two camps - one with estimates of 0-4 seats, the other with estimate of between 8 and 12.  The real issue is whether the Arab parties could  join the left-Centre coalition to string  together more than 61 and block Netanyahu.  Hard to say, though it is possible with the current  numbers.  It may all depend on what Saar wants to do with his New Hope.

Netanyahu has been courting the 4 seat Arab bloc and has met with its leader on several occasions.  He may even be hoping that these 4 will support his far right wing coalition bloc and enable him to get to 61 with Arab support.  This would be an incredibly cynical position to take since Netanyahu railed against the possibility of a left-centre coalition after the last election, which would have required the support of the  Arab parties.  Netanyahu called this type of government illegitimate, since it didn't have a "Jewish majority."  

There is one more centrist party called the "Economic Party" which is also running as an anti-Bibi party.  But they are currently not projected to pass the minimum threshold.  Led by three economics professors, they are confident that they will get between 5 and 8 seats and hope to focus on fixing the Israeli economy.  Hard to predict where they will wind up.

In short, after the next election, Saar may face the same choice that Benny Gantz had - either  make a deal with the Arab parties and somehow get to more than 61, make a deal with Netanyahu or call  yet another election.  Given that Saar is somewhat more to the right politically  than Gantz, it seems to me unlikely that he would enter a coalition deal with the Arab parties.  Much more likely that he would enter  an agreement with Netanyahu, despite his written pledge - if Netanyahu can get to 61 or more with his support.   

I have written more  than I planned about this, but it is all still premature.  We will have to watch polling numbers and see if anything changes between  now and March 23, 2021.  If the election were  held today, based on current numbers, I think Netanyahu would be  able to form another  government.  But things  could change drastically so the  next 7 weeks or so will be very interesting, especially if the economic party  and/or the Labour party can pick up seats at expense of Likud support.

Netanyahu's Trial

A short note to mention that Netanyahu's criminal trial is scheduled to resume tomorrow.  He is facing a variety of charges including bribery, corruption and breach of trust.  The trial has been delayed several times at Netanyahu's request for a variety of reasons - including the change of legal counsel, the political situation, Covid-19 and any number of other reasons.  His team has indicated that he will ask for another delay of the  trial  until after the  coming election. Of course, Netanyahu  is hoping that he can delay the matter until after the election and form a right wing coalition that will agree to a retroactive immunity bill.  There is a chance that a government made up of Likud, Yamina, Otzma and the two ultra religious parties would agree to this request but it is not clear at all, as of today, that this group alone could get to 61 seats and form a government.

If the trial does proceed, it will be a  fascinating legal and political event.  It is bound to be heated, dramatic and thoroughly entertaining - quite a spectacle.  From a legal perspective, I am very much looking forward to it. That being said, I doubt that it will ever take place - or at least, that it will not be completed.  In my view, it is likely to end  in one  of three ways - politically - with the retroactive immunity bill; legally with some type of plea-bargain deal; or hybrid politically/legally with a pre-emptive pardon from the President of Israel as part of a political/legal deal.  Based on the content of the various charges and Netanyahu's defences, it seems to me highly unlikely that he would take his chances with the defences he has put forward all the way through a trial.  But I guess we will find out soon enough - or perhaps over the next few years if Netanyahu's defence team can continue to drag things out as long as possible.

Other Notes

It is also Super Bowl Sunday today.  That means watching the game from 1:30 a.m. to about 5 a.m. Israel time.  I am up for it  - since it could be a fantastic game.   Two  very exciting teams.   Not too many people are interested in joining me at that time - and especially in the midst of  a pandemic - even though many of us have been vaccinated.  I'll be lucky if one or two other family members stay awake.  Also doubtful that there would be anywhere  to order a pizza from at that time - or that anyone would want to eat pizza at that time anyways, especially Israeli pizza, which for the most part is not particularly good.  In fairness, there are some decent places nearby that we have discovered during this lockdown year - so I guess pizza is still an option, as long as we order early and reheat it at half time.

We watched the Toronto Maple Leafs play last night.  That also started at about  2 a.m. Israel time.  The Leafs are off to an exciting start and have made some great line-up  changes.  They are  only playing other Canadian teams this year - so the competition level is not that high.    It is quite a challenge  to follow ice hockey here in Israel but every now and then I stay up to watch a game.  More so during the playoffs.

Overall, I haven't really been watching that much in the way of sports this year - other than  football, which will officially end today for a while.   I have no real interest in Israeli soccer or basketball - other than international competitions in which the Israeli national team is participating.  

Ben Gurion Airport is officially closed to most  travel until at least February 28th.  Air Canada has indicated that it is now only scheduling flights starting again on March 6, 2021.  These dates could still change.   But with the combination of new Canadian travel restrictions  and Israeli airport restrictions, it looks like those  of us who spend time in both Canada and Israel will be grounded for the foreseeable future.  

I wish everyone the best of health and will probably put together at least one more blog before the end of the month.

Last Israel Pre-Election Blog 2015 and Predictions

Isaac Herzog and Tsipi Livni

Netanyahu and Bennett

 We are nearing the finish line.  Or perhaps, one could say, we are nearing the starting line, given the Israeli political system.  In some ways the real drama begins when the coalition building starts after the votes are all counted.  But tomorrow is a big day.  Israelis across the country will cast their ballots and it will then probably take quite a period of time to sort out and spin the results.  Students are thrilled - they have a day off school since in Israel, an election day is almost a national holiday.

Under Israeli law, the last pre-election polls could only be published Friday March 13, 2015.  But over the past few days, there has been a flurry of activity from all sides, jockeying for last minute position.  Here are a few last-minute highlights of some of the really interesting things that are going on (in my view anyways).


1.  Netanyahu is in Desperation Mode

Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops in a bid to retain his position.  He attended a large rally on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv with Bayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett.  He has publicly appealed to his constituency by pledging that Bennett will be a key part of his government.  He has attacked Herzog and Livni as "weak" and claimed that they will divide Jerusalem and create "Hamastan" in Jerusalem.  In short, he has made every effort to appeal to his right wing base, seemingly ceding much of the centrist vote on issues involving the Palestinians.  He has renounced any previous speeches in which he indicated that he would be willing to agree to a Palestinian State and he has wooed the right wing and the Israeli religious voters feverishly.  At the same time, he has urged Moshe Kahlon (leader of the Kulanu party) to support him and he has pledged to provide economic assistance to the middle class despite the perception that he has a failed record in this regard.  While Netanyahu's calculation is that the Likud voters will be frightened into bolstering his party at the last minute, there is some danger that this will backfire.  There is a palpable sense of desperation.  The momentum has been moving in the other direction and it is certainly unclear that these desperate speeches and statements will stem the tide.

2.  The Zionist Camp is Feeling Confident

Indications are that the Zionist Camp will win a plurality of seats.  However, it still may not be enough to enable the party to build a viable coalition and form a government.  Nevertheless, the party is also making several last minute appeals, changes and pleas in an effort to shore up its support.  Leader Isaac Herzog visited the Kotel and pledged his support for Jerusalem.  He has attacked Lapid's Yesh Atid Party and urged centrist voters to support his party.  Earlier today, he and co-leader Tsipi Livni announced that they would not go through with their plans to have a rotating Prime Minister's office and that Herzog would be the sole Prime Minister if the party wins.  This was seemingly intended to enable the party more flexibility in coalition negotiations - perhaps even opening the door to a rotation with Likud (which may or may not involve Netanyahu).

3.  Meretz is also Desperate

As I have written previously, the Meretz party, the party of left wing social justice, is flirting with elimination from the Knesset.  Under new Israeli electoral law, a party must win 4 seats to be able to sit in the Knesset.  That total has been increased to minimize the number of parties and limit the ability of extremist parties to win Knesset seats.  Meretz is polling at 4 or 5 seats.  Meretz has stepped up its campaigning with ads everywhere.  It is appealing to voters by claiming that the Meretz party is needed for there to be any chance for Herzog to form a government.  In fact, it has used a stylized "Merzog" graphic to bolster the connection, mixing its party name with Herzog.  But many Meretz voters are moving to the Zionist Camp, hoping that this will finally be an opportunity for the left/centre to form a government.  It could be a very close call for Meretz.

4.  Shas and Yachad

As I discussed previously, the ultra-religious Shas party splintered over the course of this most recent Knesset sitting.  Eli Yishai left the party and formed the Yachad party which is now polling at 4 or 5 seats.  Shas is calling on its voters to "come home" to the legacy of the late Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, its former spiritual leader.  Yishai is flailing around in an effort to reunite with Shas or find some other way to make it into the Knesset.  It would be a huge boost for the Israeli centre if Yishai were to fall short since his 4 seats would be redistributed among the other parties, proportionately.  

5.  Centrist Struggle:  Lapid or Kahlon?

In the last Knesset, Yair Lapid's party Yesh Atid had 19 seats.  The party is now polling at 12.  A new party, Kulanu, led by former Likud member Moshe Kahlon is polling at 8.  A simplistic look at these numbers would suggest that these parties are fighting over the same group of voters - approximately 15-18% of the Israeli public who view themselves as true centrists.  Lapid has edged slightly to the left, indicating that it is now highly unlikely that he would join a Netanyahu-led government (again).  Kahlon has been wooed by Likud but has refused to commit to supporting Netanyahu. These two parties could be the real power brokers and could also wind up with surprising numbers.  It is likely that the two parties combined will wind up in the range of 18-25 seats, which is certainly a force to be reckoned with.

Predictions

It is extremely difficult to predict Israeli election results. Many Israelis continue to declare themselves to be "undecided" to pollsters - whether or not that is really true.  Others are still deciding between one or two or even three parties.  Some may not decide until they are in the polling booth.  But what is a political column like this worth without making an effort?  So here goes, based on recent polls, trends, discussions with others, gut instincts and perhaps, a complete lack of qualifications as an election predictor - here is what I am going with:

Zionist Camp:  27
Likud:  21
Yesh Atid:  16
United Arab Parties: 13
Bayit Yehudi 13
Shas 8
Kahlon 7
Degel HaTorah 6
Yisrael Beitenu 5
Meretz 4
Yachad OUT

If this were to occur, Herzog would have 30 days to try and form a government.  He would be able to count on the support of Yesh Atid, Meretz and maybe Kahlon.  That could get the party to 54.  They would still need seats from the religious parties and/or Lieberman to be able to form a government.  Alternatively, they would try to form a unity government agreement with Likud.  I am having a hard time, based on these numbers, seeing how the Zionist Camp could actually form a government.  I am almost forced to predict that we will see another election within a two year period.

On the other hand, if Netanyahu continued to fight over the initial 30 day period and Herzog could not form a government, Netanyahu would get a chance to try.  He could count on Bayit Yehudi, Shas and Degel HaTorah.  That would get him to 48 with these numbers.  Add 5 for Lieberman.  That is 53.  He would still need Kahlon and Yesh Atid or at least Yesh Atid.  At this point, it is highly unlikely that Yesh Atid will bolster a right-wing religious government, since that would involve unraveling all of the changes that Lapid has pushed for.

This all looks like quite a recipe for a political logjam.

Netanyahu is not about to go quietly.  However, looking at all of these results and possibilities, the most likely of the unlikely scenarios is starting to look like a joint Zionist Camp-Likud government, supported by Lapid, Kahlon and Meretz.  It would be quite a shock but there are Israeli precedents.

The alternative would be a Herzog-led government which includes two of the three - Shas, Degel HaTorah, and Lieberman - as well as Kahlon and Lapid.  I'm not seeing it....

So that is the best I can do.  Stay tuned.  We should have a good sense by Wednesday morning as to how these numbers stack up with the official results.



  

5 Days Left Until Israeli Elections

There is quite a bit of excitement in Israel as the March 17, 2015 election date approaches.  Israelis have very passionate views about political issues, which of course, can have existential consequences.  Politics are very dynamic.  The proportional representation system means that many different parties are represented in the Knesset, with widely disparate views.  And as the final decision time approaches, many Israelis have still not made up their minds, leading to widely fluctuating poll results.

In my view, here are some key stories to watch:

1.  Zionist Camp or Likud:

Five different polls were released in Israel today.  All five of them had the Zionist Camp (Labour party and Tsipi Livni's party, running together) ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party.  The average was a 24-21 margin.  It is important to remember that these polls still show anywhere from 15 to 25% of Israelis as "undecided."  So a lot can still change between now and Tuesday.  But there is a growing sense of momentum in favour of the Zionist Camp and it is starting to seem more and more likely that Labour leader Isaac "Boujee" Herzog will have the first opportunity to try and form a government.  Boujee will still need to cobble together a total of at least 61 seats and that will be no easy task even if his party wins a plurality of seats.

2.  Decline of Meretz:

The left wing Meretz party is in a state of panic.  New Israeli changes to the electoral system put the cut off at 3.5% of votes in order to set in the Knesset.  This means that Meretz will need to win at least 4 seats to stay on as a party.  It appears that many Meretz voters have shifted over to the Zionist Camp.  This has caused Meretz to run an all out campaign emphasizing its "social justice" credentials.  It looks like it is going to be very close as to whether there will be a Meretz representation in the next Knesset.  On balance, I think they will squeak in.  But it could be a really close call.

3.  Kulanu and Yesh Atid:

Moshe Kahlon's new party ("Kulanu") seems to be polling at about 9 seats consistently.  Lapid's party is at approximately 12.  That is 21 centrist seats for the new Knesset.  My sense is that Lapid has some momentum and could wind up closer to 15 or 16.  I think some of these seats will come at Kahlon's expense.  Kahlon is probably slightly more likely to join a Likud-led coaltion.  Lapid has been very vigorous in his calls for Netanyahu's defeat.  But it is likely that either of these parties would join a Likud-led coalition with the right offers.  At the same time, Lapid would gladly join a Zionist Camp led coalition and it is probable that Kahlon would do the same thing. 

The real issue is how either side will form a government.  Looking at the current numbers, it is hard to see how the Zionist Camp could actually put together a viable government.  One option would be a "national unity government" where the party cuts a deal with Likud as well as some other centrist parties.  If it cannot get together with Likud, the Zionist Camp will have a very difficult time getting past the magic number of 61 - even with Lapid, Kahlon, and some others.

On the other hand, Likud would also have a difficult time with the current numbers. Even with Bennett's party and the religious parties, it is hard to see how they would get to 61 without the Zionist Camp.  If they were to get to 61, it would be a narrow, right wing coalition including all four of the religious parties (Bennett, Shas, Degel Hatorah and Yishai's party). 

If there are some new developments, I will try to put together one more pre-election blog note.  But this might be it until after the results are released on Tuesday evening.