Day 8 of War - Increasing Escalation

We are the midst of day eight of a war with Hamas/Gaza, which is a really a war with several parties, including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the Palestinian Authority, even though parts of this war have not yet started.  I don't write this as a scare tactic but rather as my best assessment of where we are currently.

I am not going to recap in this blog the full extent of the massacre conduct by Hamas terrorists last week. I will say that over the past week, we have learned more and more details of the extensive planning that went into this attack with the clear aim of murdering civilians, taking hostages, looting and other outrageous acts. More than 1,300 Israelis were murdered and more than 3,000 were injured - all of this conducted by the official government that runs and controls the Gaza strip -  Hamas - which announced its actions as a "declaration of war" on Israel last week.

Since last week, Israel has launched extensive air raids on Gaza and has killed several of Hamas' senior military commanders. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops have been called up and many are massed at the border of Gaza, prepared to enter if and when they receive the order to do so.

Although Israel has warned residents of northern Gaza to leave and take shelter in the south - and has threatened to begin a ground option "at any time" - the extent and nature of the pending Israeli operation is yet to be determined. It is clearly a top priority for Israel to destroy the entire network of Hamas tunnels, weapons and communications facilities and everything else that Hamas has built up underground across Gaza.  How exactly Israel plans to do this remains to be seen. However, Israelis across the political spectrum are largely unified and view the complete destruction of Hamas' military capabilities as an imperative and the key war aim for Israel.

Other Fronts

As we know, Hamas is funded, trained and supported by Iran as well as Qatar and to some extent, Turkey.  Hamas also works closely with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon and parts of Syria.  Hezbollah has pledged, at least in some form, to support Hamas in this war.  It may well be that Hezbollah and Hamas have a detailed plan as to how and when Hezbollah will get involved.  Or perhaps Hezbollah is playing it by ear. 

Since the war  began, Hezbollah has been slowly increasing its involvement - just enough to avoid starting a full scale war. They have fired unmanned drones, missiles, rockets and other weaponry at Israel but in small quantities. Today, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks. In the morning, they fired an RPG that killed one  Israeli and  injured five others. Later this afternoon, they fired another RPG that killed two more civilians.  As I have been writing this blog, Hezbollah has fired 7 more RPGs at Israeli troops. Israel has answered these attacks with air strikes and other retaliatory measures, though still on a relatively restrained scale. However, at this point, it now seems to be a question of when, rather then if, Israel will be in a full scale war with Hezbollah and Lebanon. This may well erupt completely today or tomorrow.

Lebanon has a massive storehouse of missiles, drones, rockets and all types of other weaponry. Hezbollah has thousands of Hezbollah fighters gathered near the border and it seems very unlikely that they will  decide to stay out of the war. The US has two aircraft carriers in place, one in the Mediterranean off the coast of  Israel.  It is unclear what role the U.S. will play in a fight between Israel and Hezbollah, but President Biden's speeches suggest that the U.S. is likely to use its air power if Israel is attacked by Hezbollah/Iran.

To the east of Lebanon, thousands of troops are now ready in Syria, some from Syria and some from Iraq. So far, these troops have fired a few times towards Israel. There are suggestions that Hezbollah would rather attack Israel from the east - and have Syria serve as the war theatre rather than Lebanon. However, Israel is not buying this. If Israel is drawn into an all out war with Hezbollah, Israel will almost certainly flatten parts of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon. That threat may be the one thing that is restraining Hezbollah so far.

Palestinian areas in Judea and Samaria including groups in Jenin are also threatening to get involved, all to help spread the army thinner. Right now, this does not seem to be a major threat but it may develop into one.

The major player behind all of this is clearly Iran, which is controlling the strings of everything that is going on. It is unclear whether Iran is interested in joining this war, though it has threatened to destroy Israel for many years.  The U.S. aircraft carriers may be a deterrent here but we simply don't know what Iran has planned as part of this war.

Stories of Bravery    

There are hundreds of stories of incredible acts of bravery that took place last week by police officers, soldiers, civilians and others. I wanted to mention a few.

In the kibbutz of Nir Am, the leader of the Kibbutz's Readiness Forces, Inbal Lieberman (26), received an early notification of an impending attack. She sprung into action, got all of the forces up and ready and developed an action plan and spread the forces (12 of them) to different stations across the Kibbutz. With her direction, the Kibbutz forces held off and killed waves of Hamas terrorists - until Israeli enforcements were later able to arrive and engage the remaining Hamas forces further. No civilians were killed at Nir Am, one of the few developments that suffered no civilian casualties and was not destroyed by the terrorists on Saturday October 7, 2023.

Another story involves Yair Golan, who is a former Knesset member for the left wing Meretz party. He is also a retired Major General in the IDF. He is  61. He received phone calls from different people early Sunday morning about kids who were trapped at the Nova party - and were reporting that Hamas terrorists were massacring people. Described as a "one-man army," Golan wasted no time. He grabbed a weapon, got into his car and sped to the area. In what sounds like scenes from a Mission Impossible or James Bond movie - he raced to locations provided to him by trapped party-goers, using their cell-phones. Along the way, he killed several Hamas terrorists. He loaded up his car, drove the kids to safety and went back to pick up other groups. It is unclear how many he brought to safety but the stories are simply astounding. Earlier this year, Golan was being called a "traitor" and "anarchist" by some Likud members since he opposed Netanyahu's attack on the judiciary. Now many of those same members are saluting his bravery and thanking him.

I also want to mention the story of Moran Tagdi, a police officer who took control of a dangerous situation involving a group of Hamas terrorists fighting from the rooftop of a two story complex in one of the Kibbutzim.  A group of officers and soldiers were involved in an intense gunfight with Hamas terrorists who had grenades, RPGs and other weapons. Tagdi came up with a plan - and told the other officers to continue to occupy the attention of the terrorists. She sent Whatsapp messages to her kids, telling them that she loved them, since she didn't know if she would survive. She took two fighters with her. They snuck around the rear of the building, made her way up the stairs and killed the three terrorists.  

There are hundreds of other stories but the stories I have cited caught my attention his week. Many stories didn't turn out as well. One Israeli commando apparently killed more than 40 Hamas terrorists himself over a period of three hours before he ran out of ammunition and was killed himself. Another group of Kibbutz Readiness forces tried to fight back but were hit with rocket launchers by Hamas and were all killed - and unable to stop Hamas pillaging, murder and hostage-taking in their kibbutz. More than 250 Israeli soldiers and more than 40 police officers were killed fighting back.  

It is evident that even in the face of a massive surprise invasion by terrorists intent on carrying out all kinds of heinous crimes, there were many points of light in the form of brave police officers, soldiers and civilians who acted quickly and saved lives.

Hostages

As you probably know, there are more than 140 hostages  in Gaza, of all different ages, taken by Hamas. We have very limited information  about them or their whereabouts. It may be that the IDF is trying to rescue some as we speak - though so far - Israel has only managed to retrieve some bodies of hostages who were either killed in Hamas captivity or whose bodies were taken by Hamas for negotiations. We have not heard about any efforts by the Red Cross or any other "humanitarian" organizations to try and release these hostages. President Biden met personally with family members of some of the hostages. While Israel always makes it a key priority to rescue its hostages, it is facing major challenges  in the  context of this current war.  I have to believe that the army is taking whatever steps it can but this is a very difficult  situation.

Personal

We appreciate the many warm messages we have received. Things are extremely stressful here. The war is threatening to spin out of control and grow into a much wider regional conflict. We are concerned for the safety of family members, friends, neighbours, community members and  others - and there is a great deal of uncertainty how long this might go on. It could be several months or longer.

Israel is determined to remove Hamas from Gaza as a threat and to ensure that Gaza cannot threaten Israel militarily.  It is also determined to capture or kill all of those who were responsible for the heinous terrorist acts committed last week. Both of those goals may take a while and may lead to months and months of fighting - while Israel may also have to fight one or two additional fronts at the same time.  

We hope and pray that this will all end quickly and successfully for Israel, however one might describe "success" in these circumstances, given what has taken place so far.

 

President Biden's Israel Visit, Beauty Queen of Jerusalem, Fiddler on the Roof in Hebrew and other comments

It has been quite a busy day in Israel for news stations, talk radio and Jerusalem commuters.  President Biden arrived in Israel on Air Force One for his first Presidential visit.  For Israelis, this meant that Highway 1, which connects the airport to Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem, was completely shut down for a good part  of the day.  The President's convoy, alone, would create a traffic jam in Israel.  But with all  of the security concerns, travelling to Jerusalem today was probably not a good idea.  (That is an extreme understatement, almost  comedically so)  So we watched from the comfort of home.

This is President Biden's tenth visit to Israel, though his first as President of the United States.  First on the agenda was a short press conference at the airport.  The president of Israel, Isaac ("Bougie") Herzog, spoke first.  Then  Prime Minister Yair Lapid and finally, President Biden.  No one said anything of great significance as far as I can tell but there were gushing expressions  of friendship and the usual statements about the closeness of the relationship between Israel  and the U.S.

Biden's  next stop was a military stop to look at one of Israel's newest missile defence systems, a project which Israel has apparently developed along with the U.S.  After that, it was off to Yad Vashem, where President  Biden spoke with two Holocaust survivors for more than 10 minutes.

Optically, this has already seemed like a far better visit than President Obama's first visit, even though Biden might ultimately carry some similar messages.  But unlike Obama, Biden has gone out of his way, initially, to stress the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship and to do so with warmth and attention to messaging.  It remains to be seen what follows.

Israeli political leaders  were falling over themselves trying to be photographed with Biden.  Former Prime Minister Bennett inserted himself into a runway walk along the red carpet before officials whisked him away.  Current  Prime Minister Lapid made sure that he had some wonderfully photogenic moments with Biden.  Former Prime Minister and current leader of the opposition, Benjamin Netanyahu made sure that he actually got a warm handshake from Biden  - even though Biden was generally giving fist pumps to  most of the other attendees.  Even Yamina leader Ayelet  Shaked managed to  make her  way over to a position right  next to Biden.  It was actually quite amusing watching all  of this.

In any event, it is a strange visit since not very much is expected.  No  major breakthroughs with the Palestinians are likely to take place and it sounds unlikely that there will be any major deals between Israel and the U.S.   So what  is the purpose of this visit, which was  planned before the current Israeli government  imploded?

There seem to be three answers.  For one, President Biden is  trying to round up support for the American approach to Iran and  its quest for nuclear weapons.  He is flying  from  Israel to Saudi  Arabia, directly (a first) on Friday and will also be discussing  Iran with the Saudis.  So  one objective is to try and bolster support for a potential revival of the Obama orchestrated nuclear deal.  Neither the Israelis nor the  Saudis are too excited about this prospective deal and, in fact, the Iranians have  not even agreed to it. So it is unclear what, if anything, will happen on that  track.

Secondly, President Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss oil and to see if the Saudis can help the current  U.S. situation by increasing  daily production of oil and, hopefully, lowering  the  prices.   This is something that Americans are deeply concerned about as oil prices have rocketed up recently, as they have all over the world.  

Finally, there  is a geopolitical side to this as well.  Biden is hoping to continue to build on the "Abraham  Accords" by moving  Saudi Arabia and,  possibly other countries, closer to becoming participants.  Saudi Arabia has, to date, indicated that it  seeks a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians as a pre-condition to joining the accords.  At the same time, Saudi Arabia is looking to protect itself against a potential Iranian threat and some  sort of deal with Israel and the  United States would  be quite helpful in that regard.  So it will be very interesting to see what, if anything, is announced in Saudi Arabia about the Saudi relationship with Israel.  Rumours here are that more  airlines from  Israel will be able to overfly Saudi Arabia en route to the far east, which will save Israeli travellers many hours of  travelling time.

President Biden also agreed to a very interesting interview with Channel 12  Israeli reporter Yonit Levy.  She pushed him with some probing questions  about  his plans for  2024 (no comment), his relationship with Netanyahu, the real reasons for this current visit and whether or  not  he would authorize force against Iran  if they won't join a nuclear deal (he said he would as a last resort).  In particular, Levy asked him whether, if Netanyahu gets elected and becomes Prime Minister, there will again be a great "freeze" in the U.S. -Israel relationship.  Biden answered that the relationship is  with the country and not any particular leader - and that he would work with anyone who is elected.  Great answer, I thought.  This is really what Prime Minister Netanyahu should have been saying during the last U.S.  election campaign but of course he  chose to be partisan instead,  almost stumping for Trump's re-election campaign.

Overall, it should be an interesting few days.  President  Biden is scheduled  to attend  the opening ceremonies of the Maccabbi games, which will take place tomorrow at 7 p.m. Israel time. (12 p.m. Eastern).  There are some terrific Israeli musical acts scheduled to perform.  I am really looking forward to watching.   At $500 a ticket, we decided not to attend but I'm sure it will be great on TV.  It would  also be crazy getting in and out  of Jerusalem.  Aside from the opening ceremonies, I am also looking forward to watching my niece compete in the swimming competitions.  

Israeli TV update

Over the past couple of weeks, we watched the Beauty Queen of Jerusalem.  Of all the Israeli shows that I have seen over the past few years, including Fauda, Tehran, Shtisel and  others, this was probably my favourite.  I have always enjoyed historical fiction.  Beauty Queen traces the fictional Ermosa family, a  Sephardic family living in Jerusalem, from pre-World  War I through to the mid 1940s (in the first season at least).  

While at times the show  might seem like  a bit of a soap opera, it is set against the backdrop of life in Jerusalem, mostly in the 30s and 40s.  It deals with the relationship between the Jewish community and the  Ottoman rulers  initially - then subsequently, the British authorities and the tensions  with the Arab community.  The politics of the time also play a role.  There is discussion of the power of the Histadrut (the largest Israeli workers'  union of the time) balanced against the "revisionists"  (the pre-cursers to the modern more free-market Likud party).   The show  also looks at the pre-Independence military organizations in Israel (the  Hagana and "Etzel") and  the different  types  of operations these  groups were carrying out.  This is of course also set against the heavy backdrop of the rise of the Nazis in Germany, the  outbreak of the second World War and initial reports of the Holocaust.   

The first  season of the show was originally aired by YES TV in Israel in 2021 over 44 episodes, each of which are about half  hour in length.  This year, Netflix picked up the series and edited the first 44 episodes into two seasons of 10 episodes each, with English subtitles.  So  we watched the first  10 episodes on Netflix - which covers about 20-22 episodes of the Israeli version.  The rest hasn't yet been released on Netflix.   So we were left hanging....what  to do...

We  found that all 44 episodes are available on sdarot.buzz but without English  subtitles.  We couldn't resist and watched the 20 or so episodes that are not yet on Netflix.  It was quite compelling - we just  couldn't  stop watching.  Perhaps it is not for everyone.  Some  people have  apparently found  it a bit slow and  it does  flip back and forth between the 1920s  and the 1930s - sometimes you don't know what year you are  in.  But it all  comes  together.  It helps if you are a history  buff, particularly if you enjoy Israeli history.  But  I think that there  is enough in the show to enjoy it even if you are not so keen  on pre-Independence  Israeli  history.  Netflix has the English subtitles.  To watch on Sdarot, you will need fluent Hebrew.

In other Israeli TV news, the fourth season  of Fauda is  now out  - or is being released  weekly.  The first episode was shown  on Israeli TV tonight and  it will run for the next  10 Wednesdays (or so). After that, apparently, it will be released on Netflix worldwide.   So  if you are a big Fauda fan, you will get another round  of Fauda on Netflix this year.  It was action packed, suspenseful and entertaining  but it is too early to comment on the fourth  season  as a whole.

Finally, although this is in a slightly different category, we went  to see Fiddler on the Roof,  in Hebrew, at at the Cultural Centre  in Tel Aviv a theatre in the heart of the city.  I have, of course, seen the play many times in English  in New York  and Toronto.   This was my first time in Hebrew though I had heard the soundtrack.  Overall, it was an excellent production.  The lead character, Tevia (he is named  Tuvia in the Hebrew  Production) was played by Natan Datner and  he did an excellent  job.  He was a very convincing Tevia  with a powerful  voice.  Some  of the other performers were a bit weaker (for example Tevia's wife, Golda) But the Hudel performer was excellent as was Motel the Tailor.  

Even though I have seen the play many times, it is still an emotionally draining  experience, on so many levels.   The complete disappearance  of the Jewish communities of Europe is very real and personal.  It is the story of my  grandparents and great grandparents as it is for some many Jews around the world.  Together with that, the play touches on the challenges of maintaining tradition in the face of post-enlightenment modern realities and that is a also a subject that is very close to home.  What, if any, traditions will our children continue?  And even the subject of intermarriage, which was already a big  challenge for the U.S.  Jewish community when the play was  adapted in the 1960s (from Shalom Aleichem  stories written at the turn of the century) seems  to have an even more  powerful  impact in 2022 when U.S. intermarriage rates are higher than 50% and Canadian rates are not too far behind.  So there is lots to think about as the town of Anatevka is eliminated and the population is expelled.  I won't deny shedding a tear or two (or maybe more than that).  

Quick Political Comment

As you may know, Israel is in the midst of another election campaign with voting to take  place on November 1, 2022. I will write some more detailed election related blogs as the election draws closer.  I will simply say  at this point that it is too close to call.

Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of his criminal trial, which is getting lots of  press these days.  He is hoping that  he  can come up with a coalition of  more than 61 seats and get himself back in to the Prime Minister's chair.  So far, polls seem to be indicating that  this is possible but far from certain.  

Former Prime Minister Bennett has announced that he is dropping out of politics.  His party, Yamina, is now being led by Ayalet Shaked and it is not clear that Yamina will  pass the electoral threshhold.  Yamina may well join Likud or some other party before election day.

Current Prime Minister Lapid is polling at anywhere from 22 to 26 seats.  It would be quite a feat for him to stay in power but anything is possible.

There are a  variety of other  political suitors pushing in different  ideological directions.  Should be quite entertaining over the  next two months. I anticipate that there will be all  kinds of mudslinging, underhanded tactics, insults and lies.  Everything  that western political campaigns seem to have these days.

Final  Comment

I couldn't leave this without stating the obvious - that airports are crazy these days and flights between  Toronto and  Tel-Aviv are completely full, incredibly pricey and more  disorganized than ever.  Airport waiting  times are very long.  It can take 2-3 hours to get through all of the security and check-in procedures to leave Israel.  Arriving in Israel is fairly efficient  generally, in contrast to arriving in Toronto  these days, which is a complete disaster.  

With El Al scheduled to discontinue its Canadian service at the end of October, 2022, prices  will  undoubtedly rise sharply, which is unfortunate.  I can't  say that I have been a loyal  supporter of El Al, since the benefits of  flying Air Canada were overwhelmingly superior.  But I know that many Israelis prefer to fly El Al since it "feels like  home."  They will be very disappointed that this option is no longer available to and from Toronto.

I suppose,  soon enough, you will be able to fly Saudi Arabian Airlines to Tel-Aviv from Toronto.  After all, you can already fly  Emirates, though I haven't tried it yet.  However, you might want to get  here, Israel will be happy to welcome you.

And with that I will sign off on this one and  wish you  all the best until next time.