The Trial Begins: Netanyahu's Criminal Trial Officially Starts

It was a wild and crazy opening to a trial that will surely be one of the memorable events in the history of the State of Israel.  Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived today at the Jerusalem District Court for the official opening of his trial.  This was really only a date to read out the charges and set dates for the continuation of the trial.  But it was a polarizing and fascinating spectacle.

The Prime Minister arrived at the courtroom as part of a televised convoy of vehicles, all part of his security detail.  He then took to the steps of the courtroom and stood in front of a group of supporters including fellow cabinet ministers, members of his government and the other accused.  He gave a lengthy speech attacking the police, the prosecutor's office, the left and just about everyone else.  Given that his government has been in power for such a lengthy period of time, at least some of this vitriol had to have been directed at his own government.  After all, some of the people responsible for investigating him were his own appointees and designates.

Netanyahu argued that the three criminal cases that he is facing have been "sewn together" and add up to nothing.  He  spoke about pressure that the State used to obtain cooperation of State witnesses.  And he said "the people of Israel will judge him."  He went on about his electoral successes and the number of people who voted for him.  The TV stations  here broadcast the full speech - which went on for quite a while.  It was a call to the public to stand by him and provide unconditional support, no matter what might occur.

At the same time, there were busloads of Netanyahu supporters, from across the country, who had arrived to show their support for Netanyahu, "no matter what happens."  This may have been organized by Netanyahu's legal team but so far, there is no evidence of that.  The interviews with several of these witnesses were riveting and frightening.  "The "Kadosh Baruch Hu will protect him and ensure that justice is done," said several of those who were interviewed, using various other terms for the divine intervention that they are expecting.

Others attacked the court system, the prosecutor's office, the judges and the Israeli left.  Several of them played religious songs and danced in front of the courtroom as if they were at a wedding.  One 12 year-old girl was interviewed, standing next to her father, and said she had decided to come to the demonstration instead of her bat-mitzvah party.  She wanted to stand for "truth and justice," she said.  "They are harassing the Prime Minister," she continued, "they should just leave him alone...think about all of the great things he has done  for the country."  "I would rather be here standing for truth and justice than having a bat mitzvah party."  My only reaction to that was "wow."

There were also several protesters demonstrating against Bibi, but they didn't seem to get very much press coverage.

Ultimately, Netanyahu delayed taking a seat inside the courtroom until all of the press had left so that he could not be photographed sitting in the accused's dock.  And so it began.  As might be expected, Netanyahu's lawyers argued that he required an extensive time period to prepare and review the charges, well into 2021.  They had a new lawyer on the team and would need extra time to get up to speed. The prosecution argued that he has been aware of the charges and was provided with extensive evidence and materials quite some time ago.  They pushed for an early date for the continuation of the trial.  The three judges reserved and will announce a schedule later today or some time tomorrow.  

Earlier this week, several Israeli TV programs and news reporters conducted in-depth reviews of the three cases against Netanyahu.  They were able to do this based on the public release of transcripts of witness examinations, text messages, emails and evidence provided by Netanyahu himself.

The most serious set of charges involves the Bezek telephone company and its press subsidiary "Walla" which operates a Hebrew language on-line news service.  The prosecution alleges that Netanyahu provided extensive regulatory favours to Bezek which allowed them to earn millions of dollars over a period of two years.  In exchange, the prosecution alleges that the CEO of Bezek agreed to provide Netanyahu with favourable news coverage on Walla.  The prosecution has put forward a huge number of emails, text messages and other communications showing that Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, were sent articles in advance and given the opportunity to edit them and change them to make them more favourable to Bibi.  In some cases, Bibi and Sara were provided with advance copies of video interviews and allowed to splice them, delete sections and change the context of the interviews.  

Netanyahu's defence is that politicians always try to influence the media..  He argues that this is part of the game and can't be criminal.  His lawyers call this case an attack on the freedom of the press.  They claim that merely obtaining favourable press coverage cannot be the subject of a bribery case.  In fact, Netanyahu's legal team recruited world famous law professor Allan Dershowitz to come to Israel and make that argument at Netanyahu's preliminary argument last year.  Essentially, the argument was that even if Netanyahu provided something of value to Bezek (worth millions of dollars), he didn't get anything of value in exchange since "favourable press coverage" has no value.  Not surprisingly, the Israeli court dismissed this preliminary argument out of hand.  I imagine that Dershowitz's arguments in support of Trump would have also met the same fate if they were made before any panel of objective judges.  

Netanyahu did not speak about the other two criminal counts.  According to one count, he received hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of champagne and cigars from Israeli/American business people over a period of several years.  The gifts are well documented and not disputed.  In exchange, it is alleged that he provided them various favours, including, for example, assisting one to try and get President Obama involved in a business visa matter.  Here, Netanyahu's primary defence seems to be that "there is nothing wrong with getting some gifts from your friends..."  His lawyers have also said that if a good friend asks for a favour, of course you are going to help out.  They simply claim that there is no linkage between the two.

The third set of criminal charges also involve allegations of breach of public trust involving another news organization and an attempted deal to arrange favourable publicity.

Netanyahu has the right, as do all accused, to be considered innocent until and unless he is found guilty.  However, there is a great deal of damning evidence here and the legal defences that he is putting forward do not seem likely to assist him in getting out of this completely.

For that reason, Netanyahu has invested significant effort in trying to get legislation passed that would retroactively eliminate the charges and provide him with immunity.  However, under the current government coalition deal, has not been able to extract that concession.  If this current coalition falls apart and there is another election, before the trial is concluded, Netanyahu might still be able to use the political process to get himself out of legal trouble.  There is probably a reasonable bet on Netanyahu's part that this would be his best way of dealing with these issues.  After all, he came within 3 seats of being able to get those concessions after the most recent election and he has now eviscerated Gantz and his Blue and White Party.  It is quite possible that if a fourth election is called, Netanyahu may be able to cobble together a 61 seat majority "immunity coalition."

If that doesn't work, he may yet negotiate some sort of plea bargain deal, down the road.  His wife Sara negotiated a plea bargain deal last year which saw her agreeing to plead guilty and repay some of the money that she had fraudulently obtained from the state.  

If the case somehow makes its way all the way through a trial and through to a conclusion, it will be intense, highly contested, dramatic and unpredictable.  And throughout, Netanyahu is certain to continue using his out of court time to call on the Israeli public to accept only one conclusion to his legal problems, whatever the evidence might show and whatever the judges might otherwise decide.

Stay tuned, although  this trial is not likely to continue before the end of all of the Jewish holy days in late October, 2020 and it may not even start until months later.

Mid-Passover Report: Politics, Covid-19 and Pesach in Israel

Yemenite Passover Matzah 

In my last post, I stated that Israel finally had a new government.  Well as it turns out "rumours of a new Israeli government are greatly exaggerated...."  As you might recall, when we last looked at this topic, Gantz had apparently surrendered to Netanyahu and agreed to support a supposed "national unity government" with the stated goal of helping the country at the time of a national crisis.  This caused Gantz's Blue and White party to split apart with only half of the elected Blue and White MKs prepared to accept the deal.  Gantz tried to sell the deal by arguing that he had extracted several concessions from Netanyahu and the Likud party including a number of high profile cabinet positions, an agreed upon leadership rotation after one and a half years and a few other agreements.  But while many of these items had apparently been hammered out into a deal after several weeks of negotiations, Netanyahu had not signed on the dotted line.  Yair Lapid, one of the leaders of the faction within Blue and White that refused to go along, argued that Netanyahu could not be trusted and that Gantz was committing political suicide.  Gantz ignored the warnings and pushed ahead.

Days went by and the agreement was still not signed.  Netanyahu began telling Gantz that he had to have more concessions in order to finalize the deal.  He wanted an agreement to annex parts of the disputed territories while Trump was still the President.  Netanyahu demanded a veto over any judicial appointments,  even as he had agreed to have Blue and White appoint the Minister of Justice.  He wanted key decisions made by the Minister of Justice and by the Minister of Internal Security to be made with his approval.  In other words, once Gantz had prematurely split apart his party and indicated his willingness to enter a coalition with Netanyahu, Netanyahu realized that Gantz had been defeated and began to insist on further concessions.  Netanyahu now saw that Gantz had very little political ability to resist and saw that he could continue to try and reach his ultimate goal of getting an immunity deal to avoid his ongoing criminal trial (the start of which had already been delayed by Netanyahu's hand-appointed justice minister).

The clock continued to tick and sure enough the initial 30 day period for forming a government came to an end without any agreement.  Gantz requested a two week extension but President Rivlin declined (earlier today) since he saw no chance that Gantz could actually form a government.  But he did not pass the mandate over to Netanyahu.  Instead he exercised an Israeli law to allow any Member of Knesset to form a government over the next two weeks.  If no government is formed, Israel will have a fourth election - presumably in September.

A fourth election would be Netanyahu's preference.  In the current negotiations. he eviscerated Gantz.  Gantz was left looking weak and useless.  He made a whole series of concessions to Netanyahu and wound up getting nothing out of it.  It seems unlikely that he will run again if there is a fourth election.  He would have no support from two-thirds of his party and even the other one third might not support him. Netanyahu  probably believes that there will be no suitable centrist alternative and he may be able to get the additional three or four seats that he needs to form a narrow right wing government or even more.  Netanyahu will also argue that Israel has done a reasonable job containing the Covid-19 crisis, especially in comparison to many other countries, and that he is largely responsible. 

I should note that Netanyahu also managed to convince Labour leader Amir Peretz to join the coalition talks.  Peretz, before the election, had shaved his moustache and said "read my lips, I I will not join Netanyahu."  But somehow, inexplicably, he decided to take the remnants of the once proud left wing Labour party and join Netanyahu in exchange for a cabinet post and some other minor concessions (unsigned of course).  This is surely the death knell for the Labour party and a significant blow to any left wing opposition to Netanyahu.

So all that is left on the centre and the the centre left to oppose Netanyahu - are the remaining half of the Blue and White Party (consisting of Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid and Telem led by Moshe "Bogie" Yaalon), the Meretz party (which has been reduced to a handful of seats) and the Joint Arab List (many of whom are staunchly anti-Zionist).  The opposition will have a short window to find a new leader (or agree to run under Lapid or Yaalon) and convince the public to stick with them.  Since a  big chunk of people were prepared to support the idea of a coalition government under Netanyahu, this will be a difficult task.  And Netanyahu knows it.  He also knows that this is his best chance of getting an "immunity bill" to end his criminal proceedings.

This may still end with further concessions by Gantz and some sort of deal over the next two weeks.  But a fourth election is also becoming a very realistic option.


Covid-19

Israel, like most other countries, continues to struggle to contain the spread of Covid-19.  Currently, Israel has about 1,300 cases, which puts it 25th in the world when looking at cases per million population.  In terms of deaths per million population, Israel's number is at 13.  Canada is at 19, the United States 67 and Italy 367.  The Israeli government has also announced that there are several thousand available ventilators.  Even if many of the people who are currently affected become more seriously ill, Israel's hope is that it will have an adequate availability of ventilators to avoid the situation that was taking place in Italy and Spain.

Israel is still under a wide ranging lock-down.  Supermarkets are open and other essential services.  But the number of services deemed "essential" was recently reduced.  For the Passover holiday, the Israeli government mandated a complete ban on leaving your home for a distance of more than 100 metres other than for urgent medical attention or a handful of other reasons.

The government has also instituted more severe lock-downs in certain areas of the country.  Some of the highest infection rates are being reported in ultra-religious neighbourhoods in B'nei Brak and Jerusalem.  The Health Ministry tried to institute a closure of these areas but some of their proposals were blocked by the current Health Minister Litzman, who is himself a member of the Haredi (ultra-religious) community.  The closure of B'nei Brak went ahead initially but it has apparently been eased up somewhat.  News reports have indicated that a high percentage of the Covid-19 patients who are classified as in serious and critical condition are members of the ultra-religious community.

The Israeli government instituted a program to give each family 500 shekels per child aged 18 or younger to ensure that people could buy food for Passover.  The money was delayed and did not arrive in time for the start of the holiday and it is unclear when it will arrive.  Even if they had received this 500 shekels (about $130 USD), many people in Israel (like most other countries) are suffering from a lack of work, lack of income and some very difficult economic challenges.  The government is trying to develop a plan to reopen sectors of the economy gradually if it can do so while continuing to minimize the Coronavirus spread.

Pesach

I think this was one of the smallest Passover Seders we have ever had.  Although we knew several people hosting Zoom Seders, we opted to hold a Seder with just our nuclear family.  We asked each person to prepare an activity, lead a discussion or prepare a section of the Haggadah.  We arranged to have some really nice wine ready and we probably had enough food prepared for a Seder of 20 or more.

It worked out really well. Since we had five willing participants for reading, singing and discussions, we had a very active evening.  The wine also helped.  We wound up finishing at about 3:30 a.m., which was late for us, even compared to our usual Seder with 25 or 30 people.  I guess we had a "captive audience" and no one had to be anywhere.  No one was driving home afterwards and no one had anything to do that was pressing the next day.  We had lots of really nice singing, some really fun activities and some pretty decent food.  It was a really special evening - lots of naches for us as parents.

Because of the time distance, it  didn't really work out well for us to join the huge family Zoom Seder - which started at 2:30 a.m. Israel time - though we dropped in to say hi  at some point after we had finished our Seder.

I should mention that Israel, unlike the U.S. and  some parts of Canada, has had no shortage of toilet paper.  But instead we wound up with an egg shortage. Yup, right before Passover, an egg shortage.  As you know, you need many eggs to make just about anything for Passover since can't use yeast or other leavening agents.  We were able to get 30 from a friend (whose brother has a  Moshav) and we were also able to buy a few of the last remaining organic eggs at the corner  store.  We still have a few left so it has not been a disaster for us by any stretch.  But hordes of Israelis were running around everywhere before the start of the holiday, clamoring desperately for some eggs for the holiday.

Imported Eggs Arriving in Israel

Here in Israel, the holiday officially ends on Wednesday night.  Tuesday night marks the start of the second "Yom Tov" - which runs until sundown on Wednesday.  There  will likely be another complete closure of the country though it has not yet been announced.  No one will be hosting any large scale "maymuna" celebrations (the customary Moroccan party marking the end of Pesach - celebrated by Israelis everywhere - even non-Moroccan Israelis) though I was thinking  about making some Mufleta (the Moroccan bread/pastry served at a Maymuna).

Then it will be time to put away all of the Passover dishes, switch the kitchen back to Hametz and hope that well before next year things will have gone back to "normal."

B'Shana Haba'ah B'Yerushalayim - Wishing everyone the best of health and Mo'adim L'Simcha.

Israel Continues to Fight on Two Tracks

Like most of the rest of the world, Israel continues to battle the growing threat of Covid-19.  The number of confirmed cases surged to over 400 yesterday.  However, Israel also ramped up its testing numbers dramatically.  So it is unclear whether the virus spread significantly over the past few days or whether we are simply conducting more testing.  However, to date, there are no confirmed deaths as a result of the Coronavirus in Israel.  So far, the heath care system is managing - but things seem very tenuous.  The Israeli government announced this morning that Israel had obtained more than 100,000 test kits and plans to increase testing levels very shortly.  The obvious hope is that Israel will be able to stave off the type of situation that is now occurring in Italy, Spain and some other countries.  But it is unclear whether efforts will be successful.

At the same time, Israel is continuing to experience a very serious political crisis.  There is only an interim government - and it is one that did not win a majority of  support in the most recent elections.  As you may know, Netanyahu's Likud party was only able to put together a coalition of a total of 58 Knesset Members, which is less than the required 61 to be able to form a government.   That 58 includes two Ultra-religious (Haredi) parties and the Yamina party.  Netanyahu has insisted that any "national unity" government with the Blue and White party must include these additional three parties, they are parties with only 7 or 8 seats.

In response, the largest "opposition" party Blue and White has been running a two pronged strategy.  One the one hand, they have been negotiating to form a unity government with Netanyahu - but only as long as he makes significant concessions.  In order to reach a deal, Likud will need to share power with respect to key cabinet posts and Ministerial positions, components of the governments agenda and a range of other matters.  To date, it has shown very little willingness to do so.

Blue and White will simply not agree to delay or cancel Netanyahu's criminal proceedings.  He is facing significant criminal charges and has dragged Israel into three consecutive elections in an effort to win a majority and legislate away his legal challenges.  So far,  this strategy has bought him time but has not produced his desired result.

Blue and White's alternate strategy is to form a government that relies on the support of 15 elected Arab members of Knesset.  Some of these members are anti-Zionist and hostile to the State of Israel as a Jewish state.  Others are not.  This plan has been roundly attacked by the right in Israel and elsewhere as an attack on the values of the Jewish state.

The Blue and White party is not proposing any action that would harm Israel as a Jewish state.  The recognition of elected Arab members of Knesset is logical and appropriate.  After all, Israel has Arab Supreme Court Judges, police officers, doctors, lawyers and every other occupation you can imagine.  Like with any other coalition agreement - or other arrangement, the Blue and White will have to make some concessions while ensuring that any such concessions are in the interest of the State of Israel.

Netanyahu and the Likud party have made far reaching concessions over the past few years to the "Yehadut HaTorah" party which is largely an anti-Zionist party.  Significant amounts of money have been diverted from the health care system, the public education system and other areas to be funneled into ultra-orthodox Yeshivas and other institutions.  Similarly the "Shas" party is also supported by many ultra-orthodox who do not serve in the Israeli army, study secular subjects or work in the general workforce.

One of the main demands of the Blue and White party - supported by both Lieberman's party and the coalition of left wing parties - is to shift back the secular/religious balance in Israel - to take back some of the power that Netanyahu has given these groups over the past few years.  Based on the past few elections, there is clearly a majority in Israel who would support moving things in this direction.

At this point, Netanyahu has not been able to form a government.  However, he is acting as if he has complete and total authority.  He has held press conferences at which he insists that he won the election since his party had more votes  than the Blue and White party, even though he can't put together 61.  He has instituted increasingly severe restrictions on Israeli society to control the spread of Covid-19.  While that may be laudable and even required, he has done so without any real legal authority or oversight.

Netanyahu's government closed down the courts at 1 a.m. - the day before his criminal trial was about to begin.  His representative, Yuli Edelstein, shut down the Knesset yesterday after 1 minute - to avoid allowing a vote that would remove Edelstein from office.  Netanyahu authorized the secret service in Israel - to track cell phones and credit cards - to be able to enforce self-isolation rules for Israelis who are supposed to be self-quarantined.  Restrictions are likely to become more severe, bringing Israel into a state of almost complete Martial Law.

No one really disagrees that Israel urgently needs to take dramatic steps to stop the spread of Covid-19.  Even many Israelis who generally oppose Netanyahu would agree that he has taken some important and timely steps to keep Israel ahead of the curve.  Israelis urgently need to follow the isolation recommendations of the World Health Organization and so many disease control experts around the world.  Does that extend to the necessity of monitoring the cell phones of all citizens?  That is unclear.

At the same time, these steps have to be made by an accountable government with oversight and input from members of a majority government.  There may be things that are being missed or areas in which we are overstepping.  In some cases, we may not be going far enough.  Having majority support also increases the likelihood of full support from the public.  For the most part, Israelis seem to be cooperating but there must be people who are concerned about such a narrow concentration of power.  This can generate skepticism even if the actions taken are correct.

Israel urgently needs to form a government that can react properly to this current health crisis.  The most logical resolution is a shared power arrangement between the Blue and White party the Likud party - as a first step - without the various smaller parties that each side has also relied on for support.  But to date, Netanyahu  is insisting that any deal include all three of his coalition members - while excluding the Arab Members of Knesset.

In this context, the Blue and White's alternate plan is important and reasonable.  Once the Blue and White party demonstrates that it can and will form a government, even a minority government - Netanyahu will be forced to realize that he needs to make concessions in the national interest.  Or his party needs to do so.  So far, they are not at that point.  Most of the actions of Netanyahu to date - suggest that he is hoping that a fourth election will finally be the one to help him get rid of his criminal problems.

In the meantime, Israelis find themselves under a Martial Law system.  New decisions are being made every day that tighten restrictions - and these decisions are being made by one person - who did not win the most recent election - with little or no oversight.  Very dangerous time for the country on two different tracks.

Two Tracks of Craziness

Israel, like much of the rest of the world is facing an ever-growing and severe spread of the Coronavirus.  The Israeli government has taken several increasingly aggressive steps to slow the spread of the virus, the most recent of which came into effect last night.  At the same time, the country continues to face a political crisis which has not yet been resolved.  No government has been formed and the country is currently running on an interim government and could well wind up with a fourth round of elections.  Either of these issues would normally be enough to occupy media coverage twenty-four hours a day on its own.  With constant reporting about both issues, along with news from many other parts of the world dealing with Coronavirus, things are very stressful here.

As of the writing of this blog, Israel has more than 200 confirmed cases of Coronavirus.  Fortunately, there have not yet been any fatalities, though there are a few patients in serious condition. 

Last week, Israel began instituting restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of the virus.  Within days, things went from a restriction on no more than 1,000 people at a gathering - to a maximum of 10 people.  By the end of last week, the Israeli government had closed schools, universities, and other large institutions.  Effective this morning, restaurants, recreational establishments, malls, gyms and other establishments had been ordered closed.  Supermarkets, drug stores and private businesses (in other industries) have been left open.  Public transport is still running. Anyone arriving in Israel is required, by force of law, to self-quarantine for 14 days.  But many airlines have suspended service to Tel-Aviv.  I have decided to stay here and work remotely, at least until after Pesach.  The restrictions in Canada and the United States will probably soon catch up to those that have been implemented in Israel.

Israel has not yet gotten to where France and Spain are - effectively instituting martial law - preventing anyone from leaving the house - without a proper reason.  But I believe that will be  following soon, perhaps by the end of the week, perhaps by next week.

This afternoon, we went out for a walk.  Surprisingly, we saw many places open that, seemingly, were not supposed to be. Falafel places, Shawarma places and bakery/cafes.  Restaurants that are only restaurants are either closed or are running take out service/ delivery service only.  But other places seem to be operating, oblivious to the directive.  Not sure what will be open in the coming days.

Many business owners are complaining about the lack of support measures behind these steps along with the disparate application.  For example, a drug store that is inside a mall is now closed whereas one on a main street is open.  Some falafel places and bakeries are open but full service restaurants  are closed.  Many of the people who work in these establishments are very vulnerable financially and may have no support.  Many of the owners are vulnerable as well.  They have rent to pay, lines of credit, tax installments etc., none of which are being frozen.  But all income has come to a halt.  It seems to me that this is only an interim step that will last a few days - until we get to a full closure that looks more like what is going on in Rome, Madrid or Paris.  It is all placing the whole country under tremendous pressure, though that is not very different from many other places around the world. 

The decisions are being made by the current interim government, led by Netanyahu.  Although many experts seem to agree with most of the steps taken by the country to fight the community spread aggressively, there are certainly well-founded concerns about the manner in which these dramatic decisions are being made. 

Netanyahu does not have a majority of Knesset members supporting him.  He has, thus far, only been able to muster 58 supporters - with the opposition holding 62.  The Blue and White party has been willing to support the measures  he has taken thus far - but in the circumstances, they should be an integral part of the decision making. 

The difficulty is that Netanyahu is fighting the spread of the Coronovirus - while fighting a concurrent personal battle to deal with the criminal charges he is facing - and while trying to find three Knesset members to switch sides and support him in building a government.  So it is natural that many Israelis have a reasonable level of suspicion and skepticism about decisions he is making.  At the same time, most recognize the urgency of the situation and are hoping that these measures will slow the spread in Israel and keep the country from getting to the situation that some other countries are now facing.

Last night, Netanyahu announced that the government was in an emergency situation - and that all gatherings of more than 10 people would be barred.  He did not mention his upcoming criminal trial (which was scheduled to start on Tuesday March 17, 2020).  Instead, his key advisors notified the press at about 1:30 a.m. (more than 3 1/2 hours after his main announcement) that a side effect of his various measures would be the delay of the trial by at least two months.

Today, Netanyahu called for an immediate "emergency government" with the Blue and White Party.  He provided his conditions - in the form of two options.  Either a temporary government of six months - with Netanyahu at the helm - or a four year government with a two year rotation for each party - and Netanyahu would go first.  In both cases, he made the proposals as someone who had won the election and held all of the cards.  Mathematically, however, this is not the case.  The Blue and White party is still responding to these proposals.

Today was also the day when all of the Knesset party leaders were supposed to meet with the President (following the recent election) and indicate who they were supporting to put together a government.  Apparently 62 Knesset Members recommended Gantz, which may give Gantz the right to first try and put together a government, albeit one that is reliant on 15 Knesset members from the Joint List (An Arab party which includes  2-3 anti-Zionist communists).  Netanyahu has attacked this type of government wildly and has all but threatened violence to prevent  it.

Weighed against all of this, many feel that Netanyahu has handled the Coronavirus crisis well to this point.  Netanyahu is hoping that if the general public feels that way (and presumably, if his measures prove successful) - he may be able to muster a few more seats and get to 61 for him and his coalition in a 4th election.  This could also allow him to pass legislation that would provide him with immunity for his criminal proceedings.  So I would say that there is a definite and growing sense that Netanyahu is hoping that a fourth election in September or October would allow him a shot a forming a government that has eluded him in the first three election attempts.

At the same time, that is only really relevant if the country can succeed in getting the spread of the virus under control and in limiting casualties.  If things get out of control, all of the talk about the formation of the government will be a much more minor concern.  We can only hope that the measures that have been taken so far and the additional measures that are going to be taken are the proper ones to address this world wide epidemic.  We can also hope that, at some point, the different Knesset members will find a reasonable way to resolve this governmental stalemate.











 

Israeli Elections 2020

The results are in from the 3rd consecutive Israeli election within a span of a year and they are just about final.  More than 99% of the ballots have been counted.  The final result?  No clear winner.

I think it is fair to say that Israel is in the midst of a constitutional crisis.  The country is split down the middle between right and left and the two sides have not been able to compromise and form a government.  Nothing from the most recent election (on Monday March 2, 2020) suggests that this is about to change.

Here are the current results (which are likely to be certified in the coming days):

Likud (Bibi's party):                                                     36 seats (+4)
Blue and White (Led by Benny Gantz):                       33 seats (No change)
Joint List (Arab party):                                                 15 seats (+2)
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi Party)                             9 seats (No change)
Yehadut HaTorah (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party:     7 seats (No change)
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman's party) (Right Secular):     7 seats  (-1)
Avoda/Meretz/Gesher (The Left)                                    7 seats (-4)
Yamina (The Right)  (Naftali Bennett)                            6 seats (-1)

I have included in brackets the change for each party over the last election results from September 2019.  Prime Minister Netanyahu ran  with a "right bloc" which included Likud, Shas, Yehadut HaTorah and Yamina.  His bloc wound up with 55 seats in September 2019 and has now increased to 58.  However, a majority in the Israeli Knesset is 61 (out of 120).  Without 61, a government cannot be formed since the "bloc" cannot control the Knesset.

Over the course of the past three elections, including the most recent one, Netanyahu has insisted that his "bloc" will stay together and not be broken up.  In any coalition talks with other parties, he has maintained that any government will include all of these parties.  The difficulty is that all of the remaining parties oppose significant parts of the agenda that these 4 parties are proffering.  Blue and White, Yisrael Beitenu and, AMG are all looking to reduce the power of the ultra-religious, at least to some extent.

The bigger issue has been a key demand made by Netanyahu.  As you may know, he is currently facing three separate, serious criminal indictments.  His trial is due to start in about two weeks, though it may take a year or two until it is completed.  His party has been insisting on two different laws (bills to be passed) as part of any coalition agreement. One law would grant him retroactive immunity from prosecution while holding office.  Some forms of this law would allow him to be prosecuted after leaving office while others would immunize him outright.  The other bill would ensure that the Supreme Court cannot strike down the first law - by allowing the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court.  Both of these bills are acceptable to Netanyahu's bloc partners. But neither bill is acceptable to any other party.

The main reason that a coalition agreement could not be reached after the past two elections was that no  other parties were prepared to accede to Netanyahu's demands for retroactive immunity.  He had to keep going with additional elections until he could get 61 supporters to pass these bills.  It was literally life or death for him politically.  Without immunity, he risks going to prison, if convicted.

On Monday night, after the election, as exit poll results were coming in, Netanyahu claimed that he had won an "enormous victory."  His expectation was that he would be able to reach 61 seats, put together his right wing coalition and legislate away his criminal problems.  For a while, that looked like it might happen.  His supporters were seen dancing, singing songs of victory and celebrating wildly.

But  as the real results dripped in slowly, the picture began to change.  Netanyahu wound up with a bloc of only 58 seats, three short of a majority.

On Tuesday, he sent out all of his key advisors and former ministers to argue on TV and radio appearances that he had won the election, that the Israeli public had made a decision and that he should now be able to form the government.  The problem is that this was premature and inaccurate.  While he had won 3 more seats than the Blue and White party and that gave him a plurality, it was not enough to give him a majority.  58 Knesset members have been elected in support of Netanyahu and his bloc but 62 have been elected to oppose that bloc.  Most people, though not everyone these days, agree that 62 is more than 58.

By Wednesday morning, the opposition parties - sometimes described as centre-left together with the Joint List, were proposing a law that would bar a leader under indictment from serving as Prime Minister.  If they are able to pass this law, Netanyahu would be out of cards to play other than perhaps an appeal to the Israeli Supreme Court to override the law.  (From a legal perspective, there is a reasonable argument that it is an improper law since it would be enacted after Bibi won the election).  It is almost like fighting one retroactive proposal by enacting another one.  Not the strategy I might have chosen, but the opposition seems to believe that this would be the best way to avoid a fourth election.

So Bibi, as he is affectionately called, took to the airwaves for a press conference.  He held a press conference that was nationally televised.  He went through the math as he sees it.  He said that there were 58 votes for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist right."  On the other hand, he argued that there were only 47 for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist left." (He included Lieberman).  He  noted that the Arab party had won 15 seats but he marked a big X through that number and said that they effectively did not count.  (See photo above).  Even though these seats represented 15 democratically, legally elected members of the Knesset.

He then said that "we won this election and we are not going to allow anyone to steal it from us."

Very strong words indeed.  Especially coming from someone who has lost - 62-58.

With all of that having taken place, we are now left with trying to figure out what comes next.  I have to say that I really have no idea.

Here are some options:

1.  Netanyahu and the Likud could  convince 3 or more Knesset members to "defect" from their parties and join him to allow him to form a 61+ seat majority.  This seems quite unlikely right now.  It would require some members of the Blue and White party or the AMG to join him.  While there may be some Blue and White party members who are ideologically close to Bibi, I just don't see them moving over at this time.

2.  Netanyahu could negotiate some kind of coalition with Blue and White.  I can't imagine that they would give him the immunity he is seeking and this might involve a rotation of Prime Ministers.  Seems unlikely right now but anything is possible.

3.  A fourth election.  Even though it makes no sense and seems  unlikely to resolve  anything, it may well be a possible outcome.

4.  Netanyahu forced to resign as a result of a left-sponsored bill that bars him from being Prime Minister while under indictment.  This would allow Likud and Blue and White to reach a coalition deal fairly quickly.  It seems to me that this might happen after a fourth election but not necessarily now.

In the meantime, Israel has no real government, only a caretaker government with limited powers and a limited budget.  Many government operations are underfunded and being neglected.  The country needs a government but there is no obvious solution as to how that is about to occur.  Especially given the political deadlock.

The next few weeks will be fascinating politics.  We can only hope that sooner or later Israel will have a stable government.  Unfortunately, it is hard to see how that will take place in the near future.

Israeli Election 2019 - Some Possible Outcomes

The second Israeli national election of 2019 is due to take place on September 17, 2019.  Since I haven't been writing as much lately, I thought I was overdue to put together some comments about the upcoming election.  In the past I have reviewed the platforms of the various parties and provided some comments.  In this post, I thought I would try to look at some realistic possible outcomes, based on current polling numbers and consider what Israel might face following the elections.  This is certainly not "Torah mi-Sinai," as I have been very wrong in the past when trying to predict Israeli political outcomes.

I figure that there are about 4 or 5 realistic possible outcomes and I will consider them and the implications of these outcomes.

1.  A Likud (Netanyahu) Victory

At this point, with about 11 days to go until the election, I would have to think that this is the most likely outcome.  The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, needs to assemble a coalition of 61 seats to have a majority in the Israeli Knesset and form the government.  Following the previous election, Netanyahu was able to string together up to 60 but not quite enough to form a government.  Once it became clear  that he was unable to form the government, Israeli customary practice would have normally seen the President ask the next party in line (Blue and White) to try to form the government.  But Netanyahu preempted this step and brought a bill to the Knesset to dissolve the Knesset and set another election date. 

So there are now at least two different ways, perhaps even three that the Likud could form a government.

One possibility would be if the Likud and its coalition partners obtain 61 seats or more. 

Current polling from a whole range of different Israeli polls estimates Likud at between 30 and 32 seats, a drop of 6-8 seats.  The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ are estimated at 8 each, with no change.  The Yamina party, which is a coalition of a number of right wing nationalist parties, replacing Bennett's previous party, and now led by Ayelet Shaked, is polling at between 8 and 10 seats.  So add all of that up, at the high end and you come up with about 58 seats.  If Likud were to pick up 3 more, by itself or if any of its coalition partners were to add seats, Likud could get to a 61 seat coalition without Lieberman. 

A second possibility is a deal with Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu).  If the Likud is unable to put together a governing coalition of 61 seats without Lieberman's party, it will almost certainly try to negotiate a deal with Lieberman's party.

Following the last elections, Likud was unable to come up with a coalition deal that would have satisfied the ultra-religious parties and the secular nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party.  Neither Lieberman nor the ultra-religious were willing to make sufficient compromises, particularly on the issue of drafting ultra-religious men to the army. 

While it is true that Lieberman seems to  have gained significant public support by demonstrating a willingness to stand up to the ultra-orthodox, his party otherwise shares many of Likud's political positions.  His party is willing to support a retroactive immunity bill that would get Netanyahu out of his various legal troubles.  This would also help other coalition partners who are under investigation.  Lieberman is also willing to support the "attack on the Supreme Court" bill (my description) that would give the Knesset the power to override any decision of the Supreme Court by a simple majority.  This is an important bill for Netanyahu since he knows that the retroactive immunity bill would probably be struck down otherwise as a violation of the principles of fundamental justice.

Lieberman's support for these bills would be life-saving for Netanyahu since it would end all of his legal problems.  Lieberman is certainly not a pushover but Netanyahu desperately needs these pieces of legislation to avoid the possibility of winding up in jail.  I think that there is strong likelihood that Netanyahu and Lieberman will negotiate some kind of deal if Likud cannot otherwise get to 61.

A third possibility for a Likud win is some other type of coalition without Lieberman.  Suppose that Likud and his coalition partners wound up with 57-60 without Lieberman.  They would need to find 1-4 additional supporters from elsewhere.  One possibility is to convince a few right-leaning Blue and White party members to join a Likud coalition, perhaps in exchange for cabinet posts other other attractive offers.  Or perhaps some Labor members or members of the Democratic Union might be willing to make a deal.  I think that these are relatively unlikely scenarios.  I find it hard to see that some Blue and White Knesset members or members of the other parties would agree to the retroactive immunity bill and the court bill to protect Netanyahu.  And that seems to be the number one priority for Likud and Netanyahu.  That being said, in Israel there are always surprises and there is a great deal of horse trading (to put it nicely).  So I don't think that this possibility can be ruled out entirely.

2.  Another Stalemate

This is probably the second most likely possibility after some type of Likud victory.  If Lieberman holds steady and refuses to make a deal that will allow Netanyahu to continue to govern and if no other Knesset members from other parties are willing to defect and join Likud - Israel could see a third consecutive election.  With the holidays and other timing issues, this would likely mean a January or February election.  This could be a big problem for Netanyahu.  If his criminal trial moves ahead and he has not been able to enact an immunity bill to make everything go away, he could be forced to step down at some point to defend against the charges.  This could change the Israeli political landscape quite a bit.  To me, it underscores the urgency of a deal for Netanyahu - with Lieberman or anyone else - at all costs (from Netanyahu's perspective).


3. A National Unity Government

Many people in Israel have discussed this option but I don't believe it is very likely at this point.

On the one hand, if Likud were to have the plurality of seats, Netanyahu would be looking to retain his role as Prime Minister and pass the two bills that his party has been pushing to protect himself.  I find it hard to see how the Blue and White party could agree to a retroactive immunity bill or even the Supreme Court bill.  Blue and White might be willing to agree  to have Netanyahu continue to govern - without these pieces of legislation.  In this case, he would face the possibility of having to resign at some point as the prosecution progressed.  I don't think Netanyahu would agree to a deal without immunity. 

If Blue and White were to win a plurality of seats, they could ask Likud to join a national unity government, with or without Netanyahu - with no immunity bill. Again, this seems quite unlikely to me since the Likud members have shown a willingness to continue to support Netanyahu irrespective of the challenges that he faces.

The landscape would only change if the Blue and White party came out ahead of Likud by 5-6 seats or more and Likud realized that it simply could not get to 61.  In this scenario, Netanyahu would, at some point, be forced to resign and face charges while the rest of the Likud party made a deal with Blue and White.  This seems highly unlikely to me for several reasons.  For one, I don't think that Blue and and White is about to get such a big win at the polls.  They don't really seem to have the momentum and don't seem likely to finish ahead of Likud by 5-8 seats.  Anything is possible but I am not predicting that outcome.

I also think that it is unlikely that so many Likud members would suddenly turn on Netanyahu after so many years of benefiting from his  leadership.  And I believe that with so much at stake, Netanyahu will pull out all the stops to cut a deal with someone to get the immunity bill and stay in power if there is any possible way of doing so. 


 4.  A Blue and White Win

While this is a theoretical possibility, I don't see how the numbers add up.   With a coalition of Blue and White, Labor, the Democratic Union (formerly Meretz) and even Lieberman, the total would come to 50-55.  I suppose that there is a chance that Blue and White could convince the ultra-religious parties to join a coalition - but that would put Blue and White into the same difficulty that Likud has faced - balancing Ultra-religious demands with those of Lieberman (and now the Democratic Union).  This would really require some creative deal-making on the part of Ganz and the Blue and White party.  It is possible that they could get the chance to try if none of the other possibilities reviewed above lead to a government.  Overall, I see this as unlikely but not impossible.

Conclusion

These different possibilities are all based on a review of current projected polling numbers combined with my own gut sense of where things are headed.  But election polling can be off quite dramatically and the numbers may be very different from those in the polls.  Likud could wind up at 37-40 seats, supported by many Israelis who don't really want to tell pollsters that they are voting Likud.  However, these seats would probably come from Yamina (or maybe Blue and White) so it is not clear that even with 38-40, Netanyahu would be able to get to a coalition of 61 without Lieberman.

Watching election results in Israel is very different from watching in Canada or the United States.  The actual polling station reports don't seem to turn up on a regular ongoing basis in the same way.  Instead, the media reports on "exit polling" numbers and uses those reports to predict the election outcome.  But the real results are usually not determined until the next morning - or perhaps even a few days later.  So whereas in Canada or the U.S., most elections are usually decided by 10 p.m. or 11 p.m., the latest, that is not the case in Israel.  We will probably only have a decent sense of the actual numbers by 10 or 11 a.m. Israel time on September 18th, 2019 (3 a.m. on the east coast for those in North America who plan to stay up and wait for the news...).

Even once the actual numbers are known, that will only really mark the start of coalition talks which are almost guaranteed to take a month or two.  So stay tuned for a wild and crazy ride.  It is almost certain that Israelis and Jews around the world will find themselves fasting on Yom Kippur without knowing what kind of government Israel will have for the coming years.  As for  Netanyahu, he may find himself fasting while hoping that he can continue to blow his own Shofar and that any negative decrees (from above, from the Israeli public or from the Israeli courts) can be averted. 

Israeli Election Update - April 9 2019 Elections

Hi everyone.  It has been a while.  I have been quite occupied with a range of other pursuits - including my professional career.  So I have neglected my Israeli-oriented blogging.  But with only one week to go until Israeli elections, I thought an election blog was well overdue.  I was reminded of this recently by a couple of friends and I thought I might have something to add.

In 2013, I put together a detailed preview.  I have referenced that here: 2013 Israeli Election Preview.
So I won't reinvent the wheel.  I would also suggest that you could have a look at this presentation - put together by someone close to me...

But things have changed quite a bit this time around.  There are several new political parties.  Some parties have vanished and others are teetering on the edge of oblivion.  It should be quite an interesting election.

Most polls and surveys seem to be dividing the Israeli electorate into "Right Wing" and "Left Wing" blocs.  The labels are probably somewhat misleading since the parties' positions on particular issues are not always readily discernible.  However, the main reason for the classifications is that Israeli politics is always about coalition building.  In order to form a government, one of the parties will need to string together a coalition of at least 61 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament).  This would give the government a voting majority and allow it to pass legislation.  So if the parties on the "right" are able to cobble together at least 61 seats, they will likely form the government even if the largest party in the coalition is not the party with the most overall votes.  I will explain that as we go along.  I thought I would first look at the main parties, current polling and some of the parties' political positions.

The Likud

The only "major" right wing party now according to most polls and predictions is the Likud, the party led by the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Over the past few months, polls have varied with the Likud winning somewhere between 26 and 32 seats.  Likud currently has 30 seats in the Knesset which suggests that the party is not likely to gain or lose too many supporters.  Since the last Israeli elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu has led a solidly right of centre government in a coalition with ultra-religious parties (13 seats), right wing nationalist parties (13 seats) and a centre-right party (10).  Over the 9 years of his current mandate, in which Netanyahu has won three elections, his party's policies have varied somewhat depending on the coalition partners.  Between 2013 and 2015, the government veered towards the centre as a result of the influence of the Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid.  However, since 2015, the Netanyahu government has undone any centrist leaning policies that were implemented during those years and has moved the government to the right in most areas including social legislation, increased support for religious institutions, supreme court reform and a host of other areas.  By any objective measure, it is clearly the most right wing government in Israel's history.  Some Israelis are obviously quite happy about that while others are frustrated and disappointed.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has also been wrestling with a range of personal scandals, which have resulted in the Attorney General recommending charges in three different cases.  All of these charges are subject to preliminary hearings before proceeding, which have yet to take place.  Other stories continue to emerge about matters for which Netanyahu has not yet been charged.  Although some might have thought that these wide ranging allegations of corruption would have affected Netanyahu in the polls, that does not appear to be the case.  For one thing, none of the charges have actually gone forward and there are many Israelis who say that he should be treated as innocent unless and until he is found guilty of something.  It is unclear what might happen to the charges after the election, especially if Netanyahu wins and forms the government.  He may well escape from any sanctions but that remains to be seen.

Blue and White Party

The big change  for this election is the addition of the Blue and White party, a merger between Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid" and Benny Ganz's new party "Hosen."  Unlike the characterization in some of the polls and attacks by Netanyahu, this is not a "left wing" party.  Its membership includes former army generals and high ranking offices with impressive military credentials.  The party has indicated that it is willing to renew diplomatic efforts with Palestinians to try and reach some type of peace agreement.  At the same time, it is as willing as the Likud to take strong military action in Gaza or anywhere else to defend Israel against military and terrorist threats.

Economically, the party is probably not that different from Likud in its capitalist outlook although it has proposed some economic policies that may align more with the centre or centre left.  It has also stated a willingness to look at issues of gender equality, religious pluralism, education reform, budget allocation for religious institutions and other domestic issues.  For many Israeli voters, who do not wish to see Netanyahu continue on as Prime Minister, the Blue and White party seems to be the only option and it is currently running neck and neck with the Likud at anywhere from 28 to 32 seats in recent polls.

That being said, even if Blue and White were to capture 30 or 32 seats, it might have a very difficult time piecing together a coalition of 61.  In fact, that might even be impossible, depending on the exact numbers for each of the parties.

One possibility is that Blue and White could win a plurality and offer to run a national coalition government with Likud.  However, it seems unlikely that Likud would agree, especially if Netanyahu continues to lead the party.


Smaller Right Wing Parties

There are four smaller right wing parties running in this election, each with slightly different constituencies and each vying to demonstrate that it is the true right wing alternative to the Likud party.

Yisrael Beitenu, under the leadership of Avigdor Lieberman is currently polling at around 4-5 seats and flirting with falling below the cut off point (3.25%).  Parties that get less than the minimum amount of popular vote do not make it into the Knesset.  Lieberman's party has been in and out of the government's ruling coalition over the years.  He represents a nationalist but not religious constituency, many of whom are of Russian origin.  The party has taken some right wing positions on territorial issues but has, in the past, suggested that it would be willing to engage in land swaps as way of reaching a deal with the Palestinians.  Lieberman has often been at odds with Netanyahu.  There could be a chance that if Yisrael Beitenu were to hold the balance of power and it were to get the right offer, it would join Blue and White as part of a government.  The party would however, in general, be a more natural partner for the Likud party.

New Right

Earlier this year, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked left "Habayit Hayehudi" ("The Jewish Home") and formed a new party called "The New Right."  In doing so, they seem to have taken about half of their support from the former party.  One might say that they left the Home and took half of the contents....

So the New Right is polling at between 4 and 7 seats.  The remaining members cobbled together another new coalition, now called the United Right which is also polling at 4 to 7 seats.  Neither of these parties seem likely to join any party other than Likud.  Both are committed to opposing any land concessions to the Palestinians and to continuing the status quo or annexing all of the disputed territories.  This looks to be anywhere from 8 to 14 seats that will be "low hanging fruit" for the Likud in any coalition talks.

The other small right wing party is the Zehut (Identity) party of Moshe Feiglin.  This self-described ultra-nationalist, libertarian party has campaigned on a platform of cannabis legalization, privatization of just about everything, annexation of all of the disputed territories and an increased separation between Synagogue and State.  Zehut also favours easing up on Israeli gun control laws and allowing for non-religious civil marriage in Israel, possibly even same sex marriage.  Zehut has apparently picked up quite a bit of support among young voters and is polling at between 4 and 5 seats, with some pundits predicting that the party may get as many as 7-10 seats.  Once again, the party is a more likely partner of the Likud but might be willing to negotiate with the Blue and White party if they could find some common ground.  The right amount of shared weed might make that more of a possibility, especially if both parties can agree on legalizing cannabis.

Some have joked around that Feiglin's supporters might be too stoned to make it to the polls - but the Zehut party seems poised to surprise the electorate and the pundits with a sizable showing.


The Left

According to most polls, the Labour party seems likely to suffer its worst defeat ever.  It is polling at between 8 and 10 seats.  It has played a very small role in public election discourse.  It has suffered from infighting including a disastrous public break up with Tsipi Livni, a former coalition partner.  Old style Labour economic policies do not seem to be appealing to most of the Israeli electorate.  The party recognized this by choosing Avi Gabai, more of a centrist, to lead the party.  However, the Labour campaign, by most accounts, has been a disaster.  Perhaps the numbers will change on election day but that seems unlikely.  A reasonably strong showing by Labour could still be helpful for the Blue and White party since the Blue and White party is the only possible coalition partner for Labour.  If Blue and White could win 32-35 seats and Labour could win 10-12, there might be a chance that Blue and White could form the government, with a prominent role for the Labour party.  If Labour only wins 7 or 8 seats, the party will likely spend the next four years in the political wilderness (i.e. the desert in Israel...)

Further along the spectrum is the Meretz party - a socially activist, proudly left wing party.  Meretz seems to be polling at consistent 4-6 seat numbers.  It could obtain some concessions from Blue and White and form part of the government if the option were available but that would really depend on all of the other numbers.  Like its counterparts on the right, Meretz really only has one available option to be part of the government.  Of course for Meretz that is the Blue and White party rather than the Likud.

The Ultra Religious

The two ultra-religious parties, Shas and UTJ (United Torah Judaism) are polling at a total of 12 to 14 seats.  They have played a key role in the current government and have held various cabinet positions.  The ultra-religious parties extracted significant concessions from Netanyahu and the Likud during the last round of coalition building negotiations.  They obtained massive funding for their Yeshivot (religious educational institutions) and for the ultra-religious infrastructure in Israel. They also succeeded in passing new laws that would keep more retail places closed on Shabbat.  Given what they have achieved with Netanyahu at the helm, it is unlikely that they would join a Blue and White coalition.  At the same time, historically, the ultra-religious parties have shown a willingness to join more centrist parties if they can obtain significant concessions.  If the Blue and White party were to make these far-reaching concessions, that would alienate many of their voters.  I find it hard to see these parties joining Blue and White.

The Arab Parties

There are two Arab parties - Hadash Tal (polling at approximately 6-9 seats) and Ra'am Balad (polling at between 3 and 5 seats).  If Ra'am Balad were to get 3, it would not make it into the Knesset.  So the likely numbers are anywhere from 6 to 14, a wide spread.  The Arab parties are not likely to join either governing group but could bolster a Blue and White coalition by voting with it - or agreeing not to vote against it.

Adding up everything, current polls are putting the right wing parties at anywhere from 62 to 68 seats and the other parties at 52 to 56.

If there is to be a change in government in Israel, the poll numbers would need to change significantly on election day.  That could happen since election polls around the world seem to have become less and less dependable.

As well, some of the "right wing" parties could be enticed into a coalition with Blue and White with the right concessions.

In my view, the Blue and White Party would need at least 35-36 seats to have a chance at forming the government, with the Likud party winning 28 or less.  If the Likud party has 30 seats or more and the Blue and White party has less than 35, the Likud will almost certainly form the government once again and Benjamin Netanyahu will continue as Israel's Prime Minister....for now.

I am looking forward to arriving in Israel just in time to vote and then sitting in front of the TV watching results all night (and maybe for several days afterwards).  That being said, I'll simply add that I am not optimistic that Israel will have a competent, stable or forward-looking government in power over the coming years.  Then again, looking around at what is taking place in so many countries around the world, is this a great surprise?

If you are an Israeli citizen and eligible to vote - make sure to go and exercise your right.  B'hatzlachah to all the candidates and to all of those voters hoping that their party will win.

Lieberman is new Minister of Defence: Major Political Development in Israel

Wading into the waters of Israeli political analysis can be hazardous.  The unexpected sometimes becomes reality.  Other times, one can be lulled into believing that there is a period of relative tranquility, only to face a sudden political earthquake.

I provided a few different comments on the last Israeli election in this blog in April and May 2015.  They are listed in the Contents By Topic.  One of my columns dealt with the decision of Avigdor Lieberman and his "Yisrael Beitenu" Party ("Israel, Our Home"), at the time, to remain outside of the government coalition.  It appeared, at the time, that Lieberman was not prepared to concede on all issues relating to the tension between religion and state in Israel.  In particular, he was not willing to participate in a government that had just turned over an enormous amount of power to several ultra-religious parties.

After a year of playing a vocal, active role in the opposition, Lieberman has suddenly and dramatically agreed to join the current government will become the country's new Minister of Defence.

The events leading up to this announcement were political theatre at is best - riveting, Machiavellian, and, for some political players, tragic.

As you may have read, the leader of the Zionist Union, Yitzhak Herzog ("Bougie") was named in a corruption investigation in late March 2016.  Perhaps coincidentally and perhaps concurrently, he became involved in talks with Prime Minister Netanyahu to bring his Zionist Union group into the current governing coalition and form a "national unity" government.  These reports seemed very strange.

On the one hand, it is hard to fathom that Bougie would be able to extract any palatable concessions from Netanyahu, given the current governing coalition.  Either Bougie would have had to convince Netanyahu to abandon several of his current coalition partners to form an entirely new government - or Bougie would have had to agree to join the coalition with little in the way of political gains to show for it.

Over the past several weeks, news reports in Israel were bubbling with stories that Bougie and the Zionist Union were about to join the government.  In fact, a press conference was scheduled for yesterday morning, presumably to provide some type of announcement as to where things stood.

However, at the last minute (or, according to plan, depending on what one might believe...), Prime Minister Netanyahu met with opposition MK Avigdor Lieberman and offered him the post of Defence Minister.  Lieberman accepted and the talks between Netanyahu and Bougie promptly came to a conclusion.  Lieberman will now take over the post of Minister of Defence, displacing the highly qualified Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon, who had formerly between the Chief of Staff of the IDF.

This was a complete and total humiliation for Bougie Herzog.  He put his party's credibility on the line, as well as his own, by investing a significant time negotiating with Netanyahu.  According to Herzog, he and Netanyahu had come to an agreement on just about every issue and were all set to proceed with a deal when the rug was suddenly pulled out from underneath and Netanyahu decided to take a different partner to the ball.  The clock hadn't even struck 12 O'clock and Bougie turned into a pumpkin.

Herzog held a press conference last night.  He spelled out what he maintained were a whole range of political gains that he had achieved in his negotiations with Netanyahu.  According to Herzog, Netanyahu had agreed to work towards a two-state solution, to hold a regional peace conference immediately, to freeze certain settlement construction, and to take several other steps on peace initiatives.  However, Herzog noted that Netanyahu would not put any of this in writing.  Moreover, Herzog devoted a significant part of his après press conference to attacking Labour's number two in command and former leader, Shelly Yacomovitch, accusing her of sabotaging his efforts.  He vowed to stay on as leader and "rip apart the government from the opposition."

For Netanyahu, this was shrewd, Machiavellian machination.  He left Herzog and the Zionist Union utterly defeated and stabilized his governing coalition by adding several more Knesset members.  Netanyahu paid a moderately high price.  He exchanged a stable, predictable, well qualified, former IDF Chief as Defence Minister for the highly unpredictable Lieberman, who can be a loose cannon.  However, after more than a year since the last election, he has now managed to complete the exchange of Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid" party for a a group of ultra-religious parties and can proceed unfettered with a right wing political agenda.  Herzog has been outed as hopelessly naive, impotent, incompetent or all three. 

It is hard to imagine that Netanyahu actually agreed to all of the concessions that Herzog claims.  Netanyahu would have had to pull apart his coalition completely and would have had to agree to many items that are diametrically opposed to his party's platforms.  It seems much more likely that he signaled some level of flexibility without any specific commitments.  It also seems more likely that this was all a series of political steps taken by Netanyahu to weaken the opposition, strengthen his governing coalition and secure three more years of mandate for his government.  Whether or not this is all in Israel's "best interests" may really depend on one's political perspective and philosophy.

 I will admit that I am surprised that the current governing coalition lasted this long.  Hanging on by a thread with 61 seats (in a 120 seat Knesset), the government seemed destined to break apart at any time since the last election.  However, it held together and this coalition, or a close version of it, is now likely to hold power until 2019.

Leading up to yesterday's announcement, Yair Lapid and the Yesh Atid party were the big beneficiaries of these coalition talks.  Polls suggested that Lapid's party had nearly doubled in support since the last election and the Zionist Union was bleeding support at an astounding rate.  If an election were held today, according to some of these polls, Lapid may have had a shot at winning the election.

However, mid-mandate polls may not mean that much when an actual election is distant.  A government that was barely hanging on by a thread has now been bolstered and that is a big blow indeed for the opposition parties and for Israel's centre-left.

The international fall-out will also be interesting.  Egypt has already expressed grave disappointment at this latest turn of events and other countries have provided less than flattering assessments of this development.

Unfortunately, I am quite concerned that some very rocky times lie ahead for Israel and the region.  Hopefully, Lieberman will demonstrated an unexpectedly high level of competence, diplomacy, tact and forethought in the coming days, weeks and months ahead.

Kahlon: Key Reversal Announced Not Long After Bad Coalition Deal

Kulanu leader - Moshe Kahlon

It is two for one day on my blog.  Aside from my article about the FIFA scandal and the pending vote over suspending Israel, I couldn't resist adding a second blog.

I wrote about Israeli election results and the "Haredi Coalition" that was formed on May 6, 2015.  As you might recall, I was particularly disappointed with Moshe Kahlon.  Before the election, Kahlon had formed a new party - "Kulanu" ("all of us"), which was dedicated, primarily, to economic issues in Israel.  Its mandate was to lower the cost of living for Israels, break up monopolies and find ways to make Israel more livable.  Kahlon had taken credit for lowering cell phone prices in Israel and was promising to do the same for housing.  Sounds great so far.

But with all of these great ideas, Kahlon's first act was to sign on to a government that was promising to waste billions of shekels - adding cabinet ministers, providing huge payouts to the UTJ and other ultra-religious parties - and pledging funds to a wide range of other expensive programs demanded by the new coalition partners.  The stench was significant.  One was left wondering whether Kahlon was incompetent (i.e. a poor negotiator), stupid or corrupt.  I suggested that just the act alone of joining a government that was prepared to make so many monetary concessions to the ultra-religious would strip Kahlon of the credibility that he had built up.

Now some really interesting news emerged about Kahlon yesterday.  Prior to the Israeli elections, Kahlon had promised to break up the monopoly in Israel over the Tamar gas field, 30% of which is owned by Isramco.  Kahlon is good friends with Kobi Maimon, one of the major shareholders in Isramco.  When asked about this exact issue before the election, Kahlon said that his personal relationship with Maimon was irrelevant and that breaking up the monopoly was in Israel's best interest and that he would do it, irrespective of any friendships he had.

Yesterday, Kahlon stated that he would not be involved in any way in breaking up the gas monopoly in Israel, even though, as Minister of Finance, this would be within his bailiwick.  Instead, he indicated that he was punting the issue over to Prime Minister Netanyahu.  But, in explaining his decision, he noted that he was putting the issue on the back burner specifically because of his friendship with Maimon.  News agencies across Israel were juxtaposing Kahlon's pre-election statements with his diametrically opposite pronouncements made yesterday.  Not surprisingly, many colourful adjectives are being thrown around...

Some of Kahlon's supporters are arguing that it is still way to early to judge his performance and that he is a seasoned politician who knows how to get things done.  They argue that he will fulfill several of his pre-election promises and that over time, these preliminary issues will look very minor.  Perhaps that is true.  I suppose we will have to wait and see.

But I am inclined to be concerned about a pattern that seems far more unsavoury.  Between Kahlon's agreement to dole out billions of shekels to the ultra-religious - and now his reversal on the issue of breaking up the gas monopoly, I would suggest that Kahlon's support across Israeli public opinion is likely to plummet very quickly, which will be good news for Israel's centrists in the next election (which I still believe will be sooner rather than later).

Netanyahu Finalizes His Haredi Coalition

Well, the negotiations are over and we have a new government in Israel.  A razor-thin 61 seat government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party.  The government includes the UTJ (United Torah Judaism) (an ultra-religious Ashkenazi party), Shas (an ultra-religious Sefardi party, led by a convicted fraudster), Bayit Hayehudi (a religious Zionist party) and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party.  This is one big right wing party (or maybe a small right wing party, since it can hardly be described as a broad government).

Zionist Union Party leader Isaac Herzog called it "the weakest, most extortionist, most narrow government in Israeli history."  Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid called the coalition agreement "a liquidation sale."  Hard to argue with these characterizations.

By all accounts, the concessions given up by Prime Minister Netanyahu to the various coalition partners are excessive and wide-ranging.  The coalition agreement rewards the ultra-religious parties with a veritable reversal of a full range of changes that had been instituted at Lapid's behest in the previous mandate.  I have listed them already in previous blogs.  But "highlights" include:

• Reversing the requirement that the ultra-religious be conscripted to the army, like other Israelis;
• Reversing the requirement that state funded religious schools teach math and science and other secular subjects;
• Reversing the cuts to yeshivas and restoring all funding to all ultra-religious programs to pre-2012 levels;
• Providing the ultra-religious with an effective "veto" over any religion-state issues;
• Installing UTJ Knesset members in some of the most important Knesset roles including Chair of the Knesset Finance Committee;
• Turning over all key Education ministry positions to the religious parties, including responsibility for secular education.

The list goes on and on.  For those who favour religious pluralism, for liberal democrats and those who favour shul-state separation, the list of concessions is stomach churning.  In fact, I'm having a hard time thinking of anything positive to say about the composition of this government, other than, perhaps, the notion that Netanyahu may be the leader most capable of overseeing Israel's military and managing it in the face of a war or other major military event (which could occur at any time).

The "bright light" in the new government was supposed to be Moshe Kahlon, who had been elected to focus on economic issues and help make the country more liveable for the Israeli middle class.  But his opening act in this capacity has been the delivery of a stamp of approval to a governmental arrangement that will take billions of sheqels and pour it into parochial religious programs.  I would have to think that if another election were held today, Kahlon would lose at least half of his seats as a result of this display of a complete lack of judgment.

Perhaps surprisingly, Avigdor Lieberman has kept his rightist "Yisrael Beitenu" out of this unholy coalition.  That may well herald an early dissolution of what is bound to be a very unpopular government.

One would have to think that many Kahlon and Likud supporters will be demanding answers to why their parties felt the need to deliver so many concessions to the ultra-religious to form this government.  I have yet to hear any convincing answers, certainly not from Kahlon.

The big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and the Zionist Union party, all of whom will sit in opposition.  Of the three, it is really only Lapid and Lieberman who Israelis could count on to stand up to ultra-religious demands.  The Israeli Labour party, in the past, has made equally unpalatable concessions to the ultra-orthodox and had signaled a willingness to do so once again if that would have put them in power.  Only Lapid truly stood up to these demands in the previous Knesset and Lieberman has taken a stand this time around.

The good news, if there is any at this time, is that this government is not likely to last.  Netanyahu's coalition building decisions may well mean that his days as Israel's Prime Minister are limited.  There is bound to be a backlash as the government begins to implement this Haredi agenda.

Certainly Conservative and Reform rabbis and their congregations, in Israel and abroad, are likely to begin reciting the appropriate prayer for the speedy demise of this governing coalition and its replacement with one that is more representative, more pluralistic, more transparent and more committed to the rule of law (secular law, that is).  And that is not to mention anything about the prospect of peace negotiations, which are not even likely to make it to the back burner with this governmental configuration.

Looking forward to the next election already....

April 1 2015 - Upcoming White House Seder with President Obama

With the Passover Holiday approaching, the White House has been planning its annual Pesach Seder.  This year, the Seder will feature some new and interesting guests.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is expected to attend along with Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Husseini Khameini.  The Ayatollah will be drinking grape juice rather than wine throughout the Seder (for religious reasons).  However, he is expected to propose a fifth cup to the "destruction of Israel," a theme he outlined in a recent tweet entitled "9 questions about the elimination of Israel."

President Rouhani and the Ayatollah will be seated next to Jeremy Ben-Ami, head of U.S. group "J Street."  They will be discussing the recent Israeli election results.

Canadian Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is planning to attend along with former Canadian Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour (who has, in the past, repeatedly attacked Israel for alleged war crimes), as well as several other current and former Liberal MPs.  Prominent Liberal MP Irwin Cotler was apparently "unavailable."  Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was not invited.  He has contacted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and asked if he could join him at a Seder elsewhere.

Some well known entertainers will also be in attendance in Washington.  Trevor Noah, the new host of the Daily Show will be attending.  He has prepared some new tweets for the occasion.  He has not yet tweeted them but he insists that they will be as entertaining and tasteful as his previous tweets about Israel and about Jewish people.  He will be seated with Pink Floyd member Roger Waters, a prominent BDS activist and several other entertainers.  Madonna was reportedly invited but declined the invitation as she will be attending a real Seder in Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not on the guest list this year.  However, he will be attending an alternate, concurrent Seder in Washington led by Republican House Speaker John Boehner and several Tea Party members.  The Seder will be held a few blocks from the White House.  Speaker Bohner's group did not tell President Obama about the concurrent Seder or about its guest list.  However, they insisted that this was not, in any way, a politically motivated event.  The Boehner group will open the Seder with readings from the book of Revelations (speaking about Gog and Magog and the coming nuclear war) and will be featuring a special fifth cup of wine with the hope of  bringing Iran out of slavery and into a period of freedom. 

Finally, the Chief Rabbi of Israel was invited to attend the Presidential Seder.  He was not able to attend but he did offer a blessing instead:  "May God bless President Obama and keep him far away from the Jewish people."  I guess he had recently been watching Fiddler on the Roof.

Chag Sameach and Shabbat Shalom to everyone.

April 1, 2015

Israel Elections 2015: A Few More Interesting Points

I have written a number of columns over the past few days.  Well, I have to say that there are few things more interesting than a closely contested national election.  If you are one of those people reading this column, there is a good chance that you agree.

So I thought I would put together a few interesting points about the results and the aftermath.  This information is available on YNet, Haaretz and some other news sources - but I have selected a few points that I found notable.

Results By City

I have provided a link to the YNet map of results by Israeli city (and even neighbourhood).  It is in Hebrew but if you have a map of Israel handy, it should be easy enough to decipher.

As with elections in many other democratic countries, voters in large cities tend to vote for more liberal parties.  There are some exceptions, of course, (like if the city happens to be a religious capital) but, not surprisingly, this can be seen to some extent in the Israeli electorate.  So in Tel-Aviv, the Zionist Camp picked up 34% of the vote, followed by 19% for Likud and 13% for Meretz.  In Haifa, the Zionist Camp won 25% of the vote, followed by 20% for Likud and 11% for Yesh Atid.  On the other hand, 24% of Jerusalem voters chose Likud while 21% voted for the Ultra-Religious Degel HaTorah party.  Another 10% of Jerusalem voters picked Shas.

Outside of those three cities, Likud fared quite well in cities of the next tier in size.  Likud wins included Rehovot (27%), Ashdod (27%), Ashkelon (40%) and Tiberias (45%).

Closer to home, 33% of Ra'anana voters cast their ballots for the Zionist Camp while Likud (21%) and Yesh Atid (14%) finished second and third respectively.

Then there is "home away from home"... in Kiryat Eqron, 45% of the population voted for Likud with another 14% voting for Kulanu.  But just down the street from Kiryat Eqron, 32% of voters in the town of Mazkeret Batya chose the Zionist Camp.  

As in any country, the results show that Israel is very divided geographically.  It is beyond the scope of this short blog to discuss the various socioeconomic factors for each area, but there are obviously a wide range of significant differences between the various geographic locations and their populations.

How Many Israelis Does it Take to Win a Knesset Seat?

Official Israeli election results show that 72.3% of eligible voters voted.  All "eligible voters" are automatically registered.  So whereas in some countries, the percentage of voters is reported as the percentage of registered voters who voted, that is not an issue in Israel.  There were 5,878,000 eligible voters in Israel.  4,253,000 of them cast ballots.  43,800 voters spoiled their ballots.

This means that each Knesset seat was worth 33,482 votes.  However, with a 3.5% threshold, a party needed 136,808 votes to make it in to the Knesset.

In case you were wondering, the Green Leaf party picked up 38,264 votes.  Under the old Israeli rules in which the threshold was 1%, Israel would have elected one Green Leaf party member - who could have sat in the Knesset and put forward bills (probably rolled up) sponsoring the legalization of cannabis.  Unfortunately for those voters, it does not look like Israel is about to become the Netherlands anytime soon.  That being said, I am quite sure that there are many places across the country where finding access to cannabis is not extremely difficult.  Worst case, Israelis can take advantage of the El Al seat sale and fly to Amsterdam or they can go a bit further and visit Colorado or Washington State for some drug tourism...

Quickest Revoked Resignation

Meretz chair Zehava Galon resigned on Wednesday after it was reported that her party had only won 4 seats.  After some absentee ballots were counted, Meretz increased its presence to 5 seats.  Galon decided to retract her resignation and stay on with the party.  She noted that many of the absentee ballots were cast by soldiers and she would not want to let Israeli soldiers down after receiving their support.  Continuing to earn an MK salary may also be a factor but she didn't mention that.

Quickest Orwellian Retraction of a Campaign Statement

As the election campaigning was drawing to a conclusion and Netanyahu was worried about the possibility of losing, he decided to try and shore up his right wing base by announcing the he was retracting his support for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.  I'm reasonably sure that this was what he said...and it was picked up everywhere as a "game changer."  Maybe we were all hallucinating?  (Thinking about the Green Leaf party winning a seat...)

After the election, U.S. President Obama promptly suggested that if Israel would not support a two state solution - the U.S. might end its policy of blocking U.N. resolutions that impose a two state solution.

Surprise, surprise - Prime Minister Netanyahu promptly announced on NBC that he was in favour of a "peaceful, two state solution" and he had not really said what was attributed to him (or something like that) - or had not really meant what he had said...  Okay well, we know now that Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot be confused with Horton ("I said what I meant and I meant what I said...a politician is faithful...100%...) (See Dr. Seuss if you missed the reference...).  Naftali Bennett on the other hand, insisted that he would not negotiate to give up even one centimetre of land.

Now this, of course, all raises several interesting questions.

For one thing, given that Netanyahu used this statement to shore up his base and siphon votes from the more right wing Bayit Hayehudi party, how is it that his voters will accept this prompt about face?  More importantly, which members of his right wing coalition will agree to negotiations for a two state solution after he campaigned by swearing it would not happen under his watch?  Will Bennett also retroactively change his words?  That seems unlikely.

While this Netanyahu about-face is certainly a positive development (albeit a small one) for those in the centre or on the left hoping that somehow there will be a negotiated solution with the Palestinians - it is unclear how Prime Minister Netanyahu could possibly negotiate one unless he assembles a national unity government with the Zionist Camp or includes some centrist or left-leaning parties in his coalition.  I don't see how this can happen given the statements he made while campaigning.   He would face a mutiny in his party.

It is much more likely that there will be another election before Netanyahu takes any real steps towards a peace deal with the Palestinians.

So that is my wrap up for now.  I'll take a break for while on election postings and write again about this issue once some type of coalition starts to take shape.