Edge of War with Hezbollah? July 2024 Update

Majdal Shams

I was planning another pot pourri blog touching on a  range of topics - including some distractions - like a visit to a winery - but, as you might know, circumstances have changed quite a bit here now since yesterday. I will still add in a few other topics - but I start with what is most urgent.

Hezbollah Attack on Majdal Shams

Hezbollah launched a rocket attack yesterday on the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, which is populated by Druze Israelis.  As you might know, the Druze are Arab Israelis, but not Muslims.  They serve in the Israeli army, speak Hebrew and actively support the State of Israel, while maintaining their own closely knit communities and religious practises.

The rocket attack from Hezbollah yesterday was an Iranian made rocket, carrying more than 50kg of explosives.  It slammed into a soccer field where a group of children were playing soccer - and killed at least 11 kids (several more are still in critical condition) and injured more than 30 others.  The soccer field was right next to a playground.  Almost all of the injured were kids between the ages of 10 and 20. One family lost four of their children in this attack.

Murdered Children of Majdal Shams

Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel in all kinds of ways - using rocket attacks, RPGs, drones and other weapons.  Israel has responded but in a relatively restrained way.  There have been several reasons for the restraint.  Israel has, of course, been concerned about opening an all out war with Hezbollah which has tens of thousands of Iranian-made rockets, and thousands of drones - ready to be fired at Israel.  The U.S. has been pressuring Israel to avoid escalation.  Israel has been trying to focus on the war with Hamas first.  And Israel and the U.S. have been trying to avoid an all out war with Iran (the main sponsor and supporter of Hezbollah), which could drag  in several other parties -  and spiral out of hand, throughout the region and other areas.

The residents of northern Israel, including the Druze and other communities, have all been clamouring for Israel to take decisive action in the north, even at the risk of further escalation.  Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from the north and are living in the centre of Israel and other areas.  Hundreds of homes have been destroyed as well as all kinds of other buildings, businesses, agricultural areas and other sites.  Yet, the Israeli government has kept the military action to a relatively restrained level even in the face of all of these attacks.  For Israel's northern residents, the situation is outrageous. They wonder what would happen if even one of these types of attacks targeted Tel-Aviv.  They feel that they have been treated as second class citizens and abandoned by the the government and the army.

But this massive and murderous attack on a large group of children is likely to be seen as the last straw by the Israeli government.  Hezbollah has tried to deny that they fired the rocket - but the Israeli military has identified the type of rocket and noted that only Hezbollah has this type of  ammunition. I don't know what would happen if Hezbollah were to issue an apology and state that the rocket missed its target and that they regret the loss of life. (Spoiler - highly unlikely). Perhaps that could lead to some type of negotiations. But so far, Hezbollah has doubled down and is warning Israel of even more attacks. Hezbollah is not the type of group to apologize and back down even after attacking a large group of children.

The Israeli war cabinet is meeting at 4 p.m. today (Israel time) and then there will be a larger cabinet meeting at 6 p.m.  I expect that the Israeli response will be significant though I have no idea, of course, exactly what targets they will attack in Lebanon and/or Syria (where Hezbollah also has a large number of bases).  It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will absorb the Israeli response without a major escalation - or whether this will quickly escalate.  Israelis are being told to get their shelters ready, to stock up on water and other provisions and to prepare for a major war. Canada and other countries are warning people to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. Hard to say how long the Beirut airport will be fully functional.

Israel at the Olympics

Israel has sent 88 delegates to the Paris Olympics, its second largest delegation ever.  The athletes have been subjected to all kinds of threats - including death threats, fake funeral notices and boos when competing.  There is extensive security - far more than at any other Olympic games - it seems - and we are hoping that all of the athletes will be safe.  The Israeli under-23 Men's' soccer team drew a difficult group - with three games to play against Mali, Paraguay and  Japan.  In the first game, Israel jumped out to a 1-0 lead but wound up in a 1-1 draw.  In the second game, played last night, Israel fell behind  twice but came back to tie the score.  The Israeli side was heavily outplayed by Paraguay but managed to keep the game close until the end.  However, over the last few minutes, Paraguay scored twice and went on to win the match 4-2.  Even if Israel were to beat Japan in a major surprise on Tuesday night, it appears that the Israeli soccer team will be leaving the tournament without advancing.  This is only Israel's third appearance at the Olympic soccer tournament in its history, so just being in the tournament has been a major accomplishment.  But the Israeli side was hoping for better results. Israel has some very accomplished athletes competing in judo, swimming, sailing and other sports and we hope that Israel will be able to bring home some medals.

Netanyahu Visits the U.S.

I am  not going to write extensively about Prime Minister Netanyahu's trip to the U.S. or his speech in Congress. There is no shortage of criticism on the Israeli side - that the Prime Minister's timing was suspect and he did not really delivery any accomplishments from this trip.  Some Israelis were hoping that he would use the trip to negotiate and/or announce some kind of deal to bring home the hostages but this was not on the agenda.  Netanyahu flew to the U.S on the newly commissioned "Wing  of Zion" plane that he had ordered a few governments ago.  In the intervening period, Prime Ministers Lapid and Bennett had cancelled the plane order, arguing that it was an unnecessary and excessive expense.  But Netanyahu, travelling in the middle of a war, happily circulated photos of himself and his wife Sara, sitting comfortably at a desk on the plane, all smiles, with a hat next to the Prime Minister saying "Total Victory" in English. This was the first official flight for this plane - a project of Netanyahu's.

While in the U.S., Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to have some fairly uncomfortable meetings with President Biden and Vice-President Harris.  He thanked Biden for his 50 years of support of Israel.  Of course Biden seems very fragile right now and, unfortunately, it is not clear that he was all there to accept these compliments.  Vice President Harris took a different approach. She greeted Netanyahu in a much more "down to business" manner and told him that they had lots to talk about.  She then held a press-conference after the meeting, without Netanyahu, and gave a unilateral statement.  On the one hand, support for Israel does not mean blind support for Netanyahu and his policies.  I can certainly accept that.  On the other hand, the tone was somewhat condescending, sharp and somewhat reminiscent of President Obama's dealings with Israel towards the end of his Presidency.

It may well be that Harris is trying to demonstrate daylight between her policies and Netanyahu's, to shore up her base.  This may be an adroit political move for her in some states.  On the other hand, it may provide fodder for centrists in other states - who may become alarmed that Harris will move the needle too far to the left on Israel issues.  To be more specific, it might help her in Michigan but hurt her in Pennsylvania. There are probably other examples.

Netanyahu's meeting with Trump, of course, was quite different. The greetings did not appear to be super warm - but there was certainly a great deal of political maneuvering both ways.  Trump announced that he couldn't imagine how any Jewish American could vote for Harris in light of her Israel policies.  Netanyahu's plan seems to have been to visit Trump and try to bolster Trump with his implicit, if not explicit, support.  However, this plan took shape before President Biden announced his decision not to run - and before Harris began to close the gap in U.S. polling numbers.  

If the gap starts to decrease further - and if Harris wins the election - Netanyahu may well be in for a very rocky relationship with Harris, perhaps even rockier than his relationship with Obama.  (Assuming that Netanyahu is still the Prime Minister by the time of the election).  At the same time, notwithstanding the support the Trump is receiving from the observant Jewish community - there is no guarantee that Trump's policies will be particularly supportive of Israel.  Trump is very unstable and prone to change his mind about any given policies at any time. If Trump damages the democratic nature of the U.S. (he has already promised to "rip up the Constitution" and this past week told a group of Christian voters that "after they vote in this election, they wouldn't need to worry about voting again."), this will certainly harm Israel and its perceived legitimacy in the long run.  It is in Israel's long term interests that the U.S. continue to be a vibrant, liberal democracy - and that Israel continue to be one as well.  Both Netanyahu and Trump would prefer to take control of their respective supreme courts, have all charges against them thrown out and advance laws and policies that allow themselves to govern unhindered.  Sorry to get too political here - and many of you may disagree with me - but I am trying to blend a variety of voices that I hear speaking in Israel, from both sides - and give a sense of what the Israeli public is thinking.  I think there is quite a split.  Supporters of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and their parties are clearly rooting for and supporting Trump. Many Israelis in the centre and left have very different views. A significant number of Israelis, according to recent polls, thought Biden was a good friend of  Israel's and was very supportive and empathetic towards Israel, though the most recent polls show that Jewish Israelis, overall, have a preference for Trump - by about 48 to 35% according to one recent Jerusalem Post poll. 

Brain Eating Amoeba in the Kinneret

Here is something totally different.  A swimmer in his 20s died last week - as a result of a brain eating amoeba attacking him in the Sea of Galilea - the Kinneret.  This has now, of course, put the fear of God into swimmers in Israel's only freshwater lake.  As if the possibility of a missile attack in the area wasn't bad enough - we now have brain eating amoebae.  Fortunately, only one other case has been discovered - and the victim seems to have survived.  I have no idea what steps the government or health authorities can take to ensure the safety of this lake - but many Israelis are now thinking twice about cooling off in the Kinneret during these prime time swimming conditions. Even some of my family members, who were up near the Kinneret and are not scared of anything (having been through military service) decided not to go into the water (or so they tell us).

Kosher Cell Phone Bills

This is not an April fool's joke.  It is July.  The Israeli Knesset is scheduled to complete its sitting today and go on a break until after Simchat Torah - i.e. until the end of October.  So the governing coalition has been  scrambling to try and pass a range of bills intended to placate Netanyahu's coalition partners.  One of the bills that was passed into law last week - is in this category.  The bill passed was called the Kosher cellphone bill.  It included the creation of a Cellphone Kashrut Committee to oversee the issuance and control of kosher cell phones.  What are "kosher cellphones"?  They are cellphones used by some ultra-orthodox Israelis that do not have internet access and can only be used for phone calls and text messages.  God forbid the ultra-orthodox should carry a device that would allow them to view inappropriate pictures or videos on their cell phones.  They might even see Israeli Knesset members speaking (including some women) or, even worse - they might be tempted to watch videos of women singing.  So the Israeli Knesset has officially handed over control over a large bloc of phone numbers that will be designated as available for "kosher  phones only."  This will prevent wayward Haredim from secretly switching their phones to a smart phone.  Instead they will have to duck into a different store in Tel-Aviv (or elsewhere in Israel) and simply buy a second phone with a new number that they can keep in a an inside suit pocket (which is what most of them apparently do anyways).  Ultimately, this bill is a money making bill for a group of rabbis who will have economic control over a large number of phone numbers.  I am not sure whether, for example, these certified "Kosher" phones will require a special Passover certification - which could mean an additional hefty fee.  In the midst of an ongoing war, a hostage crisis, huge challenges in the north and all over the country, this is evidently a matter of prime urgency for the current government.  As they say in Israel - this is a sign that someone is "disconnected."  I might add that there were plans to try and pass other bills by tonight - including the "Rabbi corruption bill" (as it has been referred to pejoratively) and some other bills that Simcha Rotman has been trying to pass as part of his judicial revolution.  Some of these bills may now be delayed as a result of the security situation with Lebanon.

Canadian Passport Holder Attempts Knife Attack - Shot and Killed by Israeli Forces

As you might have read, a Canadian passport holder, Qawarshi Zakaria Adam, showed up at the Israeli town of Netiv HaAsara not far from the Gaza border.  He had apparently arrived at the Tel-Aviv airport using a Canadian passport, rented a car and headed south.  When he arrived at Netiv HaAsara, he got out of his car with a knife and moved towards some members of the community's rapid response team - saying "you're murdering people in Gaza.."  As he got closer, he was shot and killed by the security personnel.  There is a video of the incident. I saw a range of different captions for the incident - including some of the Canadian media that are happy to  turn this type of incident on its head and somehow accuse the Israelis of doing something nefarious. For the benefit of those considering similar actions, I would strongly suggest that brandishing a knife and threatening Israeli police or other military personnel - in the midst of a war zone - is not a recommended course of action - it is not likely to end well.

I was planning to write about a recent trip that we took to the Clos de Gat winery, which was quite an exceptional  experience. But I am going to save that for another blog.  

Let's hope that a major regional war and crisis will be averted and that this whole war will end soon - with the return of the hostages, an enforceable agreement in the north and some type of stable  agreement that brings many years of peace.  I am not particularly hopeful at this point, but we can always hope.

Wishing everyone the best of health.

October 2020 Update

We are now in the midst of the holiday of Sukkot - also known as "the time of our  happiness," the "holiday of  booths," and the time for travelling and trips abroad for many Israelis.  Not this year, generally.  At least not the travelling part.  Israel is in the midst of a nation-wide shut-down of sorts so travelling is fairly limited.  But Sukkot (booths) are still everywhere - and people are celebrating the holiday.  

It has been a very strange and unusual holiday season though that is certainly  not unique to Israel, unfortunately.   The interesting question is how this will change things in a long term way.  In so many respects.  But that could  really be the subject of a very long blog.  Maybe the next one.  This one will be a bit more anecdotal I think.  I'll cover some personal reflections about the holidays, Israel's current Covid-19 situation, the Israeli government and anything else that springs to mind before the end of these comments.

The Holy Days - Some Personal Reflections

Rosh Hashana came and went.  One initiative in Israel was to have people with Shofars walking  around (on the  second day of Rosh Hashanah, the Sunday) and blowing their shofars so that people could get the chance to hear them.  In Ra'anana, the City set up various points around the city where there would be shofar blowing at different times.  Another  initiative was to tell people to go out onto their front lawns, their balconies or their backyards and blow  their shofars at 11 a.m.  I took part in this one - and noticed at least one neighbour enjoying my attempts to sound like a real shofar blower.  I guess I have another year to practice.   Makes me wish that I had learned to play the trumpet in school instead of the saxophone.  

In any event, it was just our immediate family and we opted for a service  in the house rather than joining the various zoom options or finding an outdoor service that was following the rules.  But we were lucky to have each other and although we missed the rest of our families, it was still a meaningful New Year commemoration.

For  Yom Kippur, we spent a fair bit of time discussing what to do.  We usually run  a small service in Ra'anana, a satellite service for Kehilla Hod v'Hadar (which is in K'far Saba).   In the past, we have not held Kol Nidrei here but have walked to K'far Saba.  We usually then have Shacharit, Mussaf, Minhah and  Neilah in Ra'anana.  

This year, we decided to hold the tefillot outdoors in one of the member family's backyard.  It was too hot to hold a morning service there but we ran a Kol Nidrei service and Minhah/Neilah outside.  We  were all spaced apart, wearing masks and outside.  Just between 11-13 of us.  I think it was my first time leading Kol Nidrei in about 35 years.  So there was a fair bit to prepare.  Neilah was a bit easier since I have been leading it for the past 6 or 7 years I think.  But it worked out  nicely and I am glad we were able to hold this service.

Next up came Sukkot.  We put up our Sukkah - and once again - it was just our immediate family  having meals inside.  The Israeli government has imposed a 500 shekel fine for "attending a meal in a non-family member's sukkah" (defined as someone who doesn't live in the same home).  But I think the fine is really viewed as a 500 shekel fine for those who weren't quick enough (or pre-organized enough) to have a reasonable excuse, when asked, to avoid the fine.  In any case, we have waved the lulav (the palm branch) and the Etrog (the Citron), sat in the Sukkah and enjoyed some nice wine.  After all, it is still the time of "our happiness" and the wine helps.  

The Closure, Covid-19 and Israel

Back to the closure.  The Israeli government has instituted a form of closure - but it is certainly not "hermetic."  In fact, it probably has more holes than a  hunk of swiss cheese.  So police have set  up road blocks all over the place.  But they are only stopping random cars - and then there is a very long list of exceptions to the closure.  The exceptions include:

- going out to buy a lulav and etrog

-going out to perform the mitzvah of Kapparot (until the end of Sukkot) (i.e. swinging a chicken over your head to get rid of your sins;

-buying groceries, essential household goods, medicine etc.,

-exercising (on your own or with a family member from the same house);

- demonstrating (against or for) the government (within 1 km of your house) (I haven't seen too many demonstrating in favour of the current government);

- attending a synagogue service (outdoors, with less than 25 people, within 1 km of your home);

The list goes on and on.  This is just to provide a bit of flavour.  

Overall, there is a sense here in Israel that Covid-19 is really out of control.  We reached close to 10,000 new cases a day last week, in the aftermath of Rosh Hashanah.  We have seen an increasingly high number of seriously ill patients and  a growing number  of fatalities.  Although the government has now imposed a closure as a way to try to deal with it - it is not a well- planned or well thought out response to the pandemic.  It is not being accompanied by steps to assist businesses, business owners and workers that will enable them to manage the economic side of the crisis.  It is being applied universally, all over the country, even though there are clearly pockets of high infection rate areas that probably warrant a different approach from those areas in which the infection rate is low.  It is unclear how this will all play out or what steps the  government will take to try and address the situation.  But we know that the virus can spread at exponential rates.  10,000 new infections per day is quite frightening and is  bound to lead to a great deal of stress on the health care system in Israel, the hospitals and support  systems across the country.  

The Current Israeli Government   

As you may know, the current Israeli government is a coalition government made up of opposing parties, generally quite hostile to each other,  who have been unable to follow the coalition agreement that they put  together themselves.  So, for example, the parties signed an agreement that they would pass a two year budget as one of the first items of business.  But Netanyahu reneged and insisted on a one-year budget only (which would be a budget for the period Jan 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020).  Blue and White continued to insist on a two year  budget.  A stalemate resulted and the decision was put off for two or three months.  As a result, there is no budget for the current year in place.  The government is running on "interim budget measures."  

Netanyahu is looking for an opportunity to pull the plug on this current government and  call an election.  He is hoping that he will be able to piece together a 61+ seat right wing government and get retroactive immunity for himself to clear him of the various criminal charges that he is now facing.  But polls have shown that Netanyahu is losing some support - to the "Yamina" (Real Right) party of Naftali Bennett.  Netanyahu is concerned that he will lose negotiating power and that he may not be able to get the immunity bill or the government that he wants.  So he has now become hesitant to call an election. We therefore have somewhat of a stalemated government that cannot agree on steps to take but is also reluctant to call another election.  This cannot continue for too long.  It is likely that the government will soon crumble and a new election will be announced - perhaps in December or January.

Meanwhile, there are protesters across Israel, spread out and following the new rules of protesting within  1 km of  their  homes.  For the most part, these protests have not been violent and have simply been made up of a wide range of citizens protesting against various aspects  of the operation of this current government under Netanyahu's stewardship.  That was  not  entirely the case on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv, where police on horses and in full riot gear used quite a bit of force to disperse a largely non-violent group of protesters.  

A primary concern is that a Prime Minister facing a range of criminal charges, is trying to make various decisions that could directly impact on his own situation.  For example, which judges to appoint in the courts, which civilian appointments (chief of police) and what to  close versus what to leave open across the country.  During the first closure, in March/April, one of Netanyahu's first steps was to close the courts while leaving many other places open - ostensibly so that he would not have to show up for an impending court appearance.

Many  other  people are protesting the lack of an economic plan, the impact of a closure on so many people without proper support and  the general perception that decisions are being made for political reasons  primarily rather than reasons based on epidemiological necessity or medical and scientific evidence and requirements.

At the same time and to be fair, it is unclear that this large number of protesters will be able to change the political results at the ballot box whenever the next election is held.  In other words, it may well be that they are made up of a large and  vocal minority.  That remains to be seen.

Schadenfreude

I must conclude this post with a comment on Schadenfreude.  

In Israel, I would not say that mask wearing and physical distancing has been viewed as a "left-wing plot" or confined to left segments of society.  In fact, Netanyahu himself has been very clear about wearing a mask,   proper steps to distance himself from others and urging Israelis to follow suggested steps to deal with the virus.  Of course some  of his ministers have not always gone along and  have viewed themselves having a special exemption from the rules that everyone else is urged to follow.  But it is not necessarily a "right-left" fault line. 

In fact one of his ministers is  now the subject of a great deal of press coverage.  Minister Gila Gamliel went to a shul  for Yom Kippur with her father in law - who was under a quarantine order due to exposure to the virus.  Some 28 people who attended services at that shul have now been diagnosed as having the virus.  There are many other similar stories.

As the virus spread in Israel, many in the ultra-Orthodox community refused to close synagogues, wear masks, follow physical distancing guidelines or close learning institutions.  One of the leading ultra-Orthodox rabbis of the Lithuanian ultra-orthodox community, Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky had insisted back in March that synagogues and yeshivas remain open since "cancelling Torah study is more dangerous than the virus."  He is later reported to have told his followers  not to get tested - since positive results would lead to a shut down of their institutions.  In any event, at age 92, he has now been diagnosed with Covid-19 although his condition is apparently improving.   According  to at least one report last week,  more than 40% of all cases of covid-19 are in the ultra-orthodox community.   Rabbi Kanievsky eventually agreed to issue a press release urging followers to adhere to guidelines.  But the virus is rampant  now in his community.

Likewise, of course, it is perhaps not surprising that President Trump has also contracted the virus.  He has held countless rallies  with unmasked supporters, refused (for the most part) to wear a mask himself and belittled those  who are taking the virus seriously.  When the Israeli  delegation flew to Washington to sign a peace deal with the UAE, Trump insisted that the delegation members not wear masks at the ceremony.  There was a heated negotiation but the Israelis largely gave in with some exceptions.  

Similarly, at Trump's Supreme Court nomination announcement last Saturday, the attendees did not wear masks or follow any physical distancing guidelines.  Is it at all surprising that Trump and  so many of his colleagues have been infected?  While we can all hope for the complete and  full recovery of the  President, I think we can also all hope (and pray) that the President will change his tune and start urging Americans to follow some common sense guidelines to minimize their chances of getting infected.  Maybe instead of attacking Biden for wearing a "huge mask," he'll decide to start wearing one  himself.  Regularly.  Assuming he recovers.

Sports Comment

September began with some  cautious optimism on my part cheering for some Toronto  teams.  The Raptors, Maple Leafs and Blue  Jays all had a shot to the make the playoffs and I was hoping for an interesting playoff season.   The Maple Leafs and Blue Jays exited with barely a whimper.  This was especially disappointing for the hockey team which had so much talent and so much promise.  But another year is in the books, which means that Toronto has  now gone 53  years without winning a hockey championship.  Ouch.

The Raptors were hoping to repeat their feat of  winning the NBA championship but without their superstar from last year Kawhi Leonard.  For the Raptors, it was also a premature and disappointing exit.

So what is a Toronto sports fan to do?  Well, the remaining team of interest - which has never one a championship - is the Buffalo Bills (okay, not Toronto but close  enough).   The  Bills are off to a 4-0 start this year and have an excellent young quarterback.  So that is very exciting.  Worth staying up for here in Israel.

Finally - and I think I got this wrong in an earlier blog - the Israel national soccer (football) team will play Scotland on October 8th for a chance to get to the delayed 2020 Euro championship.  If Israel beats Scotland, it will have to play the winner of a Norway-Serbia match on November 12th.  So that match will be this coming Thursday - and it really will be one of the biggest soccer matches for the Israeli side in many years.  I am not normally a huge soccer fan - but this will be an exciting event to watch.

I wish everyone a Chag Sameach (Happy holiday) and Mo'adim L'Simchah (Enjoy these times joy) and a home that the coming year brings us much better news from all across the world.  Keep in touch!