State of the War
As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.
Gaza
First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza. Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead. Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.
The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge. Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration. Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel. More on Hezbollah shortly.
At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory. The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy. Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza. An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.
Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal. While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.
One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt. Israel would like to ensure that this border is no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used for years. If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.
A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce." For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.
A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages. Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.
Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party. His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother. It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).
Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance structure.
Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive. For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.
I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days. The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.
Hezbollah
As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon. Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles. Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel. Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.
Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed. Hezbollah has therefore continued to attack Israel since October 7, 2023. Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.
Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.
Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.
On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks. Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.
Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety. Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel. This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone." Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions. If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.
It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions. Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes. Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.
Iran
Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on now in the region. Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel. It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres. It arms and trains Hezbollah and it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.
Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for killing their "guest." Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel. This has crippled Israeli air travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others). El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes). Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness. Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.
Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran. They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.
The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability. The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel. But I still think the U.S. believes that it can come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.
I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.
There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length. The bottom line is that we are, in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.
Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program. It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah. At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries. It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause instability in Egypt. Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them. And we know what type of response that would draw.
There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.
If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.
Israeli Terrorism and other offences
Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade. As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal. He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.
Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents. Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.
There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks. These were not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law.
There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters. Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.
At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law. The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments. If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members. (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation. This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).
At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7. However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters. The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started. A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.
Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide. Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces. But given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.
For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target. That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."
The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of war. Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority. In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians. It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.
Olympics
You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news. So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more positive.
The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze. This was Israeli's best Olympics ever. Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a record medal haul.
Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event. After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early. I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun. Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.
Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze. Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout. She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.
Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition. They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European title. It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.
The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics. The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal. It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan. There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came up short.
Tisha B'Av
As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and Tuesday. Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.
It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem. Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a "yom tov" so work is allowed if necessary, as well as driving etc.,
I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul. Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.
There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day. But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.
For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period." This is often a time when many people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.
For sports fans, I would also say that it is like an "in between time." The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons. I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.
Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it). And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall. I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came down to the final buzzer. Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.
Flight Update
There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days. Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly to Israel until well into 2025. Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows. Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results. To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this. I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October. The cost? $5,600. Economy. That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500. But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.
I have had to change my travel plans several times. My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome. Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.
Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and then hopefully a State Inquiry into everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.
Best regards.
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