Are We Nearing the End of the US/Israel-Iran War?

As I am writing this article, I am listening to the latest Israeli news reports.  There is speculation that there may be a cease fire between Israel and Lebanon - perhaps temporary - perhaps longer term - but we are still waiting for details.  At the same time, there are reports that the U.S. and Iran are making progress towards some kind of broader cease-fire deal - which may initially include a further temporary cease fire between the U.S. and Iran to see if a deal can be concluded.  I will come back to this.  So far - lots of talk but no confirmation that there is a deal.

Even though the war is perhaps the most important  topic - I decided to go in reverse order this time and write about sports and other items first.  So if you  do not like reading my sports updates you can skip down below.

Sports

First of all, as a Canadian, I have to start with ice hockey news.  The Israeli national ice hockey team won Division IIB of the IIHF (International Ice Hockey Federation) Tournament.  Israel finished first in this round robin hockey tournament by beating a variety of ice hockey luminaries including Kyrgyszstan, Iceland, New Zealand, Bulgaria and Chinese Taipai.  The clinching game was a 5-2 win over Iceland on April 12th.  The tournament's leading scorer was Hanadz Malashchanka with 12 points over 5 games.  Israel will now move up one level to the Division II Group A.  In case you are wondering - that would still put them two groups behind the "real" international hockey powerhouse teams.  But for Israel, this is a big and exciting win.

In other sports news, Israelis are filled with pride over the performance of Deni Avdija, who scored 41 points last night in an NBA game to help the Portland Trail Blazers make it into the playoffs.  Israeli news reports that this will be the first time an Israeli player has played in the NBA playoffs.  I have not verified that - and I am not really an avid basketball fan - but Israelis are super excited about this.

Personally, I am getting for a view sleepless nights as I try to watch a few Montreal Canadiens' playoff games and maybe some Edmonton  Oilers games as well.  I will be back in Toronto late next week, so if either or both teams make it through, I will get to watch some games from North America at saner hours.

Random Thoughts

I needed to renew my Israeli passport.  I am used to the Canadian system of filling in a detailed form, going and getting passport pictures somewhere and other steps. In fairness, Canada has simplified things a bit over the years - if you are simply renewing a passport - and you already have one that has not expired yet - or has expired only recently.  Here in Israel, I booked an appointment on-line simply by providing my national ID# - and confirming which type of passport I wanted. I then paid on-line, and booked an appointment. I showed up at the office in Tel-Aviv ( I was a bit late because of the horrible Tel-Aviv traffic but nobody seemed to mind).  I was shuffled over to a machine - that took my photo, took my finger prints, checked my ID card and current passport - and - ta-da - I was done.  No need to talk to anyone, take photos in advance or take any other steps.  Quick and easy.  Now I just need to wait to  collect it. It is supposed to arrive by courier within 4 to 6 weeks.

Travelling back and forth between two countries, I sometimes lose perspective about how different things can be culturally on different sides of the world. I felt it quite a bit today when I walked into a crowded coffee/baked goods shop.  People were calling in their orders from all over the shop - "hey Kobi - make me a double latte - no foam" - and the different staff working behind the counter were simply taking the orders and trying to keep up.  "No problem sweetie, did you want that for here or to go."  This was quite a far cry from a Starbucks, Second Cup or even a Canadian  branch of Aroma (an Israeli chain) where there is an orderly line and an evident ordering system in place. Now in fairness, if you walk into one of the bigger chains in Israel, like Arcaffe (one of our favourites of the Israeli chains), the experience is much more like being in North America.  But in a smaller local shop - well this seemed like much more of the Israeli experience and it is very different from the North American experience for sure.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah

Yesterday was the Day of Commemoration of the Holocaust and Heroism in Israel and around the world.  In some years, I have dedicated my whole blog simply to that day.  I was not able to write a blog yesterday or the day before - so I decided to include some comments here.  That is not intended to diminish the importance of the day.

On Monday night, we decided to watch the national televised ceremony rather than attending the in-person commemoration in Ra'anana.  Given that we still do not have a cease fire in place with Lebanon, there are still some restrictions in place for public gatherings.  Prime Minister Netanyahu went to significant lengths to politicize the day by drawing comparisons between the Iranians and the Nazis.  Aside from  his speech, there were some powerful musical performances and wreath-laying ceremonies.

In Israel, on Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, the whole country comes to somewhat of a standstill. All restaurants and shops close early in the evening  (this year on Monday) and the TV stations show Holocaust related programming exclusively for a 24 hour period - other than news. At 10 a.m., there is a two minute siren throughout the country.  Israelis stop what they are doing - and stand at attention.  Even those who are on the highway stop their cars and get out to stand at attention.  It is very powerful.

Commemoration of the Holocaust and its six million Jewish victims is of paramount importance in the Jewish State of Israel - as is the recollection of the bravery of those who fought the Nazis and the remembrance of those, including non-Jews, who went out of their way to help save Jewish people.  For Israel, so much of the messaging is tied to the central idea that only having a strong Israel could have prevented this horrible event - and is the only way to protect the Jewish people today - especially in the face of raging anti-Semitism in so many countries.

We watched a variety of documentaries - including "One Flight For Us."  This documentary looks back at the failure of the U.S. army to bomb the railways or death camps, despite flying over different  camps repeatedly.  It includes interviews with U.S. politicians, historians and  others looking back at historical records to assess what the U.S. and its allies knew about what was going on in Nazi Germany, when they knew and what they might have been able to do.  The movie also ties that in with an arranged fly-over carried out by Israeli fighter pilots, who flew over Auschwitz symbolically to represent a very different reality.  This type of movie demonstrates the Israeli viewpoint that  although the message of the Holocaust does have universalist warnings and messages, it is ultimately the targeting of and impact on the  Jewish people that is most significant for us, as Jews.  I note, parenthetically, that this difference between a universalist message and a particularist one is evident if one contrast visits to Yad Vashem (the Israeli Holocaust Museum) versus the National Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C., for example.

For  the  Canadian side of things, I participated in a Law Society of Ontario Zoom program dealing with the latest developments in the area of hate speech in Canada - including a recent criminal conviction for a Holocaust denier.

I have written more about this subject in other  blogs - and they are searchable using my index if you would like to read more of my thoughts on this.  As is the case with so many Jewish people, it is a subject very close to my heart - as we have many ancestors and extended family members who were victims of the Holocaust as well as some who were survivors or the descendants of survivors.

Justice, Justice You Shall  Pursue

In case you did not recognize it, that is the approximate translation of "Tzedek Tzedek Tirdof" which appears in the Torah in the book of Dvarim (Deuteronomy).  So I adopted that line as my intro for a few comments on legal proceedings in Israel.

The Israeli Supreme Court, yesterday,  in a nine-person panel, heard a petition to remove Minister Itamar Ben Gvir from his role as cabinet minister.  The argument, in part, was that he had breached various duties, obligations and laws, and was eroding the independence of the police force by appointing more than 1,200 loyalists (Ben-Gvir's numbers) to key positions without the proper jurisdiction to do so.  I am not going to get into a detailed  discussion of this now - but it raises all kinds of issues  as to the boundaries of judicial jurisdiction weighed against political prerogative and authority.  Various members of the Likud Party and Ben-Gvir's party appeared at the  hearing and tried to disrupt it until they were thrown out of the hearing by the court.  As well, there were dozens of demonstrators outside of the courthouse arguing that the vary fact that the Court was hearing this type of petition was inappropriate and an  overreach by the court. 

At the same time, Prime Minister Netanyahu was granted a further two week adjournment of his criminal hearing due to "security issues."  Netanyahu is becoming quite concerned that if the war ends and he has not been pardoned, his trial will move along at a much faster clip and might even be headed towards a verdict.  I have discussed this in the past and I won't belabour it other than to say that it is my view that it is highly unlikely that he will be able to emerge from this unscathed if it goes to a verdict.  In my view, he will either get his pardon, reach a plea bargain deal or find some other way out of it before a verdict is ever handed down.  This is simply because he and his team know that there is overwhelming evidence on some of the counts (otherwise the case would not have proceeded in the first place) and their main strategy is to delay the process and ensure that it never gets to a verdict.

War Update

Israel is still involved in ongoing wars on several fronts, the most active being the battles with Iran, Lebanon and Gaza.

As you know, the U.S. and Iran are still in the midst of a two-week cease fire period and are actively negotiating to try to find a way to end the conflict.  Some of the latest reports suggest that Iran has agreed to turn over its enriched uranium, if not to the U.S. then to an agreed upon country, and the U.S. has agreed to release millions of dollars in frozen funds.  At the same time, the U.S. has also increased its military contingent in the region, either as an increased threat to Iran or as part of a plan to restart the war.  I am simply not in a position to assess what will happen next week.  Certainly from the direction that things appear to be taking, it is looking likely that there will either be a further extension of the cease fire or an outright deal. The deal will certainly include Israel as well.

The situation with Lebanon is somewhat different.  Lebanon and Israel have no reason to be involved in hostilities. Israelis believe that the majority of Lebanese would like to have a full peace deal with Lebanon.  However, approximately 30% of Lebanon is Shi'a Muslim - and some of that population supports Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran - a terrorist militia operating throughout Lebanon to do the bidding of Iran, attack Israel (and/or Syria if called upon) and give Iran power and influence in the country. Hezbollah does not control the government but has often been part of it.  However, it is a powerful extra-governmental militia, funded, armed and supported by Iran - that has attacked Israel, both in October 2023 (when Hamas attacked Israel) and now in the current war after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran.  In fact, Hezbollah is still firing rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones and other weaponry at Israel, aiming mostly at civilian populations.  

Iran tried to insist that any ceasefire included a cease fire in Lebanon.  However, Israel is not interested in leaving large numbers of armed terrorists on its border without a commitment from Lebanon to reign in these terrorists and prevent attacks.

Despite all of this, Israeli officials met with Lebanese officials for one of the first times ever, face to face, to discuss these issues and try to work towards a resolution.  For Israel, that would mean disarming Hezbollah and getting an assurance from the  Lebanese government that no attacks on Israel will take place from Lebanese soil.  The concern is that the Lebanese government is probably too weak to implement that type of deal.  So this one continues to be tricky and it remains to be seen what type of arrangement can be negotiated.

In the meantime, we have had one family member stationed up in Southern Lebanon/ Northern Israel, who thankfully returned today for at least the next week or so. So many Israelis from across the country are currently serving in reserve duty -  in Gaza, near the Lebanese border and  in all kinds of other positions.

Next Week

Now, after observing Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah, we are headed towards Israel's Memorial Day for Soldiers and Victims of Terror (one of the saddest days of the year) (on Monday night and  Tuesday) and then Israel's Independence Day (Yom Haatzmaut) (one of the happiest days of the year) on Tuesday night and  Wednesday.  All of these events are taking place while a cloud of certainty still hangs over the country, waiting to see what will happen with the unresolved wars.

But no matter what the situation is, most Israelis will find a way to light up the barbecue and get together with friends or family on Tuesday or Wednesday and celebrate the modern state of Israel's 78th anniversary - even if that means being in and out of shelters and protected rooms in between the chicken wings, kebabs and skewers.

Pesach Update #2 - 2026

We were into our final preparations for our Passover Seder on Wednesday night.  The gefilte fish had been made, the Charoset was ready to go, the horseradish was hand grated, the chicken soup and matzah balls were hot and the roast beef with garlic confit (Kosher for Passover, kitnyot-free of course)(courtesy of our in-house chef) was out of the oven.  There were other dishes as well - these are just a few of the highlights.  As we were getting ready to leave around 4:30 p.m., we faced an onslaught of five warnings and sirens in a row - as a result of simultaneous missile launches from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. We headed for our saferoom and waited it out.

We started wondering if we were going to be able to make it to Kiryat Eqron for our family dinner or if the Iranians and their "Axis of Resistance/ Axis of Evil" allies - would be firing missiles all night long.  We packed some blankets with us in case we were going to need to stop the car on the way and find a safe spot near the side of the road.

We of course received phone calls and messages from friends and family members wondering if we should stay home and just have the Seder at our place.  But by 5 p.m. or so, everything had stopped and we decided to take our chances.  So off we went (crazy? perhaps. But that's  life in Israel).  We made it to Kiryat Eqron (about a 40 minute drive) uneventfully.  We started our Seder at about 7:40 p.m. and finished about 12:30 a.m. and had no sirens or warnings throughout the whole Seder.  

As you might know, there is only one Seder in Israel - and we were able to enjoy it thoroughly with some really nice wine, telling the story of the Exodus from Egypt as set out in the Haggadah, singing lots of songs, enjoying lots of food and most importantly spending the evening with our extended family - with the chance to pass on and teach our children these lessons and traditions. 

Once we had cleaned up, packed up all the food and finished whatever else needed to be done, we wound up with our first and only siren of the night at about 2 a.m.  Fortunately nothing landed anywhere near us.  We also had one bright and early at 7 a.m. (which is really bright and early after a Pesach seder - especially if you have fulfilled your obligation to drink four whole cups of wine....).

The rest of our Chag day was relatively quiet.  In the afternoon - we decided to go back to Eqron for a family barbecue.  I won't get into all of the details here - but barbecues on Chag days are common in observant Mizrahi communities in Israel. They take a more lenient approach to the idea of getting a charcoal fire going - as long as it was started from another existing flame.  

Again, we were able to get through all of the preparations, have all the food made, eat most of it and even get to our hot beverages - until we wound up with three missile alerts in a row.  So we joined some of the neighbourhood folks in the community bomb shelter and waited for about 20 minutes until the missile barrage was over.  One person was "lightly injured" in the nearby town of Mazkeret Batya (about 2 km away from Eqron) from pieces of shrapnel.  We went back to the house to finish our coffee and tea and it began to rain.  Much more welcome than missiles but still rain tends to send an outside party indoors.

It felt like a Chag day today - Friday - a holy day - since so many people in Israel are doing a "bridge" and turning the holiday into part of a three-day weekend.  Good Friday is not observed  here as a national holiday - only by the Christian communities living in Israel - so mostly, it was a regular Friday - but I think most people were still home lazing around after enjoying the first evening and full day of Pesach.

What's Next in the War?

I understand that President Trump gave a speech on Wednesday night at about 9 p.m. - after the Seders in Israel but in the middle of the Seders in North America. On the one hand, he pledged to finish the war within 2-3 weeks - or at least take the American forces out of the area in that timeframe.  On the other hand, he threatened to bomb Iran "back into the stone ages where they belong..." as he put it.  

Now I'm not sure that this kind of threat will engender the Iranians to rise up and form a U.S. friendly government - not really the kind of language that suggests that we are waiting to work with the Iranian people to build a better future.

In any event, it is hard to conclude that the U.S. has achieved any of its stated objectives at this point in the war.  The Iranian regime is still in place (perhaps even stronger, despite the loss of many key personnel).  The Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, as far as we know.  Apparently, the Iranians still have their enriched  uranium.  The Iranian missile supply has certainly been degraded but not eliminated.  And the regional proxies of Iran have not been eviscerated - though Hezbollah has certainly taken some  heavy blows.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime has strengthened its control over the Hormuz Strait, increased and improved its ties with China, Russia and apparently North Korea, and has so far refused to agree to anything close to U.S. terms.

If things do not change dramatically by April 6th at 8 p.m., President Trump has threatened a series of massive attacks, designed to secure some of the stated U.S. objectives.  Or he could announce another extension.  When I first heard of the 10 day "extension" that he gave the Iranians. my thought was that this was a pretext to concluding the operation - and claiming that a deal had been reached with the Iranians.

At this point, it does not appear that the Iranians have any demonstrable interest in negotiating a deal with the U.S. that would be acceptable to both sides.  As a result, I am leaning to the view that we will see some type of major attacks on Monday April 6th - if not before.  It may be an operation to secure the Straits of Hormuz.  Or it might be an operation to try and seize the enriched uranium that is in some underground Iranian storage facilities. Or perhaps the U.S. might try to seize Karg Island and its oil transportation and storage facilities.  I guess we will have to see.  It seems unlikely that the Iranians will capitulate between now and then. While it is still possible that Trump will declare victory and leave - I think a ramped-up attack is looking much more likely now.

Other Israel News

The Israeli Knesset, before its Pesach break, passed a budget for the year that is intended to enable the government to function until and beyond the elections (end of October 2026). The big news here was that the governing coalition passed  a budget even without passing the the "Draft Evasion Law" that had been promised to the Charedim (the ultra-religious Jews).  How did Netanyahu get around this?  He basically threw more money at the Charedim.  The government added in a few proposed "amendments" to the budget bill.

Normally such amendments only come from the opposition and are routinely voted down.  The opposition votes in favour, the government votes against and all such amendments are defeated.  Here there were more than 100 such amendments.

The governing coalition dropped a few amendments into the list  - including a proposed amendment called an "Education Amendment" - which gave hundreds of millions of shekels to the Charedim.  The opposition dropped the ball and believed that this was one of the amendments they had proposed as a form of filibuster.  As a result - they voted for the amendment - granting the Charedim hundreds of millions of shekels in exchange for supporting this year's budget.

Later the Knesset also passed a  death penalty bill - though the bill only includes the death penalty for Arab perpetrators of terrorism against Israeli targets.  Irrespective of one's view about capital punishment in general, this is a terrible bill - since it does not contain one equal universal standard for defining crimes that would warrant capital punishment.

Sadly, there have been acts of terror committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (called the "West Bank" by some) against Palestinian Arabs.  In my view, perpetrators of these acts should be arrested, prosecuted and subject to the full weight of the law.  Unfortunately, there have not been a sufficient number of arrests and the IDF has had to divert some of its resources to preventing these attacks.  Coupled with this one-sided capital punishment bill, this does not make for a great picture. We have enough problems to deal with - facing a world full of anti-Israel voices, even when we are morally correct.  We hardly need to fan these flames by enacting lopsided pieces of legislation or by failing to protect Palestinian Arabs  in areas that are under our control.

Passover Holiday Trips

Israelis usually love to travel during Passover - since some people have as much as two to three weeks of holidays.  Options are very limited now.  People can go down to Eilat - but the prices there are crazy.  One radio show was reviewing various costs - three day packages for 4 people - ranging from 16,000 shekels to 25,000 shekels.  Sure these packages might include food.  But that is still about $5,500 USD to $8,200 USD for a three day vacation in a moderate level hotel.  In normal times - people can fly to Rome/Athens/ other European destinations for a few hundred dollars per person - and would be nowhere near these costs.

Other people are travelling into the Sinai desert to enjoy the sun and beaches in Egypt.  Might not be the safest plan around for a variety of reasons - but it is generally "missile-free."  

Still others are taking flights from Aqaba or Taba airport - or even Sharm-El -Sheq airport, which is a few hours away from the Egyptian-Israeli border at Taba.  

I would say that overall, many Israelis have expressed the feeling that they feel "trapped" in Israel to some extent.  The airport is running very few flights, with low numbers of passengers per flight.  That being said, there are various flights available to Israel - on El Al  and other airlines.  To twist the famous lines from the Eagles' sign - "you can check in any time you like but you can never leave.... " We also have the "dark desert highways" -  and the "warm smell of colitas..." and with all of these missile warnings - lots  of "shimmering lights."  

It looks like we are staying put for now - and it seems to me that is likely to be the case for most Israelis for a number of weeks, if not longer.

Sports Comments

Since I am on a Hotel California lyrical binge (definitely one of my all time favourite songs), might as well reference another well  known line - "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969...".  In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it has been since 1967 - the year the Leafs last won the cup.  And here we are 57 years later and the Leafs were officially eliminated from contention yesterday.  I hope I will have the zechut to see a Leaf Stanley Cup in my lifetime but I am not optimistic these days.  

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens have won  10 Stanley Cups since 1967, with the last win being in 1993 (a most auspicious year for our family).   As someone born in Montreal, I have and ample supply of Habs' fandom in my blood.  I am always cheering for whichever Canadian teams are in the NHL playoffs. For the last 10 years that has included the Leafs - even though they haven't really gotten anywhere.  This year, the Canadiens are super-hot approaching the end of the season.  They will join the Edmonton Oilers as the only two Canadian terms that are in for sure - with chances still for Ottawa and Winnipeg to squeak in.  So I am hoping for a dark horse Montreal victory - but I would also be happy to see the Edmonton Oilers win the cup.  Either way, I'll definitely have less hockey to watch this year than some other years - with the Leafs not even making the playoffs. The NHL playoffs start this year on Saturday  April 18, 2026.  For those watching  from Israel, this means about 2 a.m. on Sunday April 19th.

The World Cup of Soccer, from June 11, 2026 to July 19, 2026 will attract much more viewership in Israel than the NHL playoffs (by multiples of thousands or tens of thousands) even though Israel is not participating.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to make it in since Israel is forced to compete in the European division instead of playing its neighbours.

One day, hopefully  sooner rather than later, Israel will have to play soccer luminaries like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in order to earn its berth - instead of having to beat countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.  Jordan and Iran are both in this year's tournament.  While Israel might not fare so well against Iran  in a soccer match, I am fairly confident that the Israeli side would be able to beat Jordan quite easily.  

Finally, I have to mention that I am super excited about baseball season and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Normally, I don't pay much attention to baseball until the hockey playoffs have ended. But with the Blue Jays' heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last year, and the various upgrades made by the team in the off-season, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic year for the Jays.  They are only 4-2 so far - but I think this is one of the most exciting baseball teams that Toronto has had in many years.  I am looking forward to getting to some games when I am in Toronto.  Tough to watch from Israel - especially weekday games that are on at 2 a.m. Israel time - but I'm often on Toronto hours anyways.

That's about it for now.  I want to wish everyone a "Mo'adim  L'Simchah" (or Chag Sameach if it is Chag for you - or if it was when I sent this) and a Shabbat Shalom.  I hope everyone enjoys the rest of this Pesach holiday and that there is some good news - "b'sorot tovot" soon.  For friends and readers celebrating Easter - I wish you a meaningful Good Friday and a wonderful Easter weekend.