Pesach Update #2 - 2026

We were into our final preparations for our Passover Seder on Wednesday night.  The gefilte fish had been made, the Charoset was ready to go, the horseradish was hand grated, the chicken soup and matzah balls were hot and the roast beef with garlic confit (Kosher for Passover, kitnyot-free of course)(courtesy of our in-house chef) was out of the oven.  There were other dishes as well - these are just a few of the highlights.  As we were getting ready to leave around 4:30 p.m., we faced an onslaught of five warnings and sirens in a row - as a result of simultaneous missile launches from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen. We headed for our saferoom and waited it out.

We started wondering if we were going to be able to make it to Kiryat Eqron for our family dinner or if the Iranians and their "Axis of Resistance/ Axis of Evil" allies - would be firing missiles all night long.  We packed some blankets with us in case we were going to need to stop the car on the way and find a safe spot near the side of the road.

We of course received phone calls and messages from friends and family members wondering if we should stay home and just have the Seder at our place.  But by 5 p.m. or so, everything had stopped and we decided to take our chances.  So off we went (crazy? perhaps. But that's  life in Israel).  We made it to Kiryat Eqron (about a 40 minute drive) uneventfully.  We started our Seder at about 7:40 p.m. and finished about 12:30 a.m. and had no sirens or warnings throughout the whole Seder.  

As you might know, there is only one Seder in Israel - and we were able to enjoy it thoroughly with some really nice wine, telling the story of the Exodus from Egypt as set out in the Haggadah, singing lots of songs, enjoying lots of food and most importantly spending the evening with our extended family - with the chance to pass on and teach our children these lessons and traditions. 

Once we had cleaned up, packed up all the food and finished whatever else needed to be done, we wound up with our first and only siren of the night at about 2 a.m.  Fortunately nothing landed anywhere near us.  We also had one bright and early at 7 a.m. (which is really bright and early after a Pesach seder - especially if you have fulfilled your obligation to drink four whole cups of wine....).

The rest of our Chag day was relatively quiet.  In the afternoon - we decided to go back to Eqron for a family barbecue.  I won't get into all of the details here - but barbecues on Chag days are common in observant Mizrahi communities in Israel. They take a more lenient approach to the idea of getting a charcoal fire going - as long as it was started from another existing flame.  

Again, we were able to get through all of the preparations, have all the food made, eat most of it and even get to our hot beverages - until we wound up with three missile alerts in a row.  So we joined some of the neighbourhood folks in the community bomb shelter and waited for about 20 minutes until the missile barrage was over.  One person was "lightly injured" in the nearby town of Mazkeret Batya (about 2 km away from Eqron) from pieces of shrapnel.  We went back to the house to finish our coffee and tea and it began to rain.  Much more welcome than missiles but still rain tends to send an outside party indoors.

It felt like a Chag day today - Friday - a holy day - since so many people in Israel are doing a "bridge" and turning the holiday into part of a three-day weekend.  Good Friday is not observed  here as a national holiday - only by the Christian communities living in Israel - so mostly, it was a regular Friday - but I think most people were still home lazing around after enjoying the first evening and full day of Pesach.

What's Next in the War?

I understand that President Trump gave a speech on Wednesday night at about 9 p.m. - after the Seders in Israel but in the middle of the Seders in North America. On the one hand, he pledged to finish the war within 2-3 weeks - or at least take the American forces out of the area in that timeframe.  On the other hand, he threatened to bomb Iran "back into the stone ages where they belong..." as he put it.  

Now I'm not sure that this kind of threat will engender the Iranians to rise up and form a U.S. friendly government - not really the kind of language that suggests that we are waiting to work with the Iranian people to build a better future.

In any event, it is hard to conclude that the U.S. has achieved any of its stated objectives at this point in the war.  The Iranian regime is still in place (perhaps even stronger, despite the loss of many key personnel).  The Iranian nuclear program has not been destroyed, as far as we know.  Apparently, the Iranians still have their enriched  uranium.  The Iranian missile supply has certainly been degraded but not eliminated.  And the regional proxies of Iran have not been eviscerated - though Hezbollah has certainly taken some  heavy blows.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime has strengthened its control over the Hormuz Strait, increased and improved its ties with China, Russia and apparently North Korea, and has so far refused to agree to anything close to U.S. terms.

If things do not change dramatically by April 6th at 8 p.m., President Trump has threatened a series of massive attacks, designed to secure some of the stated U.S. objectives.  Or he could announce another extension.  When I first heard of the 10 day "extension" that he gave the Iranians. my thought was that this was a pretext to concluding the operation - and claiming that a deal had been reached with the Iranians.

At this point, it does not appear that the Iranians have any demonstrable interest in negotiating a deal with the U.S. that would be acceptable to both sides.  As a result, I am leaning to the view that we will see some type of major attacks on Monday April 6th - if not before.  It may be an operation to secure the Straits of Hormuz.  Or it might be an operation to try and seize the enriched uranium that is in some underground Iranian storage facilities. Or perhaps the U.S. might try to seize Karg Island and its oil transportation and storage facilities.  I guess we will have to see.  It seems unlikely that the Iranians will capitulate between now and then. While it is still possible that Trump will declare victory and leave - I think a ramped-up attack is looking much more likely now.

Other Israel News

The Israeli Knesset, before its Pesach break, passed a budget for the year that is intended to enable the government to function until and beyond the elections (end of October 2026). The big news here was that the governing coalition passed  a budget even without passing the the "Draft Evasion Law" that had been promised to the Charedim (the ultra-religious Jews).  How did Netanyahu get around this?  He basically threw more money at the Charedim.  The government added in a few proposed "amendments" to the budget bill.

Normally such amendments only come from the opposition and are routinely voted down.  The opposition votes in favour, the government votes against and all such amendments are defeated.  Here there were more than 100 such amendments.

The governing coalition dropped a few amendments into the list  - including a proposed amendment called an "Education Amendment" - which gave hundreds of millions of shekels to the Charedim.  The opposition dropped the ball and believed that this was one of the amendments they had proposed as a form of filibuster.  As a result - they voted for the amendment - granting the Charedim hundreds of millions of shekels in exchange for supporting this year's budget.

Later the Knesset also passed a  death penalty bill - though the bill only includes the death penalty for Arab perpetrators of terrorism against Israeli targets.  Irrespective of one's view about capital punishment in general, this is a terrible bill - since it does not contain one equal universal standard for defining crimes that would warrant capital punishment.

Sadly, there have been acts of terror committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (called the "West Bank" by some) against Palestinian Arabs.  In my view, perpetrators of these acts should be arrested, prosecuted and subject to the full weight of the law.  Unfortunately, there have not been a sufficient number of arrests and the IDF has had to divert some of its resources to preventing these attacks.  Coupled with this one-sided capital punishment bill, this does not make for a great picture. We have enough problems to deal with - facing a world full of anti-Israel voices, even when we are morally correct.  We hardly need to fan these flames by enacting lopsided pieces of legislation or by failing to protect Palestinian Arabs  in areas that are under our control.

Passover Holiday Trips

Israelis usually love to travel during Passover - since some people have as much as two to three weeks of holidays.  Options are very limited now.  People can go down to Eilat - but the prices there are crazy.  One radio show was reviewing various costs - three day packages for 4 people - ranging from 16,000 shekels to 25,000 shekels.  Sure these packages might include food.  But that is still about $5,500 USD to $8,200 USD for a three day vacation in a moderate level hotel.  In normal times - people can fly to Rome/Athens/ other European destinations for a few hundred dollars per person - and would be nowhere near these costs.

Other people are travelling into the Sinai desert to enjoy the sun and beaches in Egypt.  Might not be the safest plan around for a variety of reasons - but it is generally "missile-free."  

Still others are taking flights from Aqaba or Taba airport - or even Sharm-El -Sheq airport, which is a few hours away from the Egyptian-Israeli border at Taba.  

I would say that overall, many Israelis have expressed the feeling that they feel "trapped" in Israel to some extent.  The airport is running very few flights, with low numbers of passengers per flight.  That being said, there are various flights available to Israel - on El Al  and other airlines.  To twist the famous lines from the Eagles' sign - "you can check in any time you like but you can never leave.... " We also have the "dark desert highways" -  and the "warm smell of colitas..." and with all of these missile warnings - lots  of "shimmering lights."  

It looks like we are staying put for now - and it seems to me that is likely to be the case for most Israelis for a number of weeks, if not longer.

Sports Comments

Since I am on a Hotel California lyrical binge (definitely one of my all time favourite songs), might as well reference another well  known line - "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969...".  In the case of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it has been since 1967 - the year the Leafs last won the cup.  And here we are 57 years later and the Leafs were officially eliminated from contention yesterday.  I hope I will have the zechut to see a Leaf Stanley Cup in my lifetime but I am not optimistic these days.  

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens have won  10 Stanley Cups since 1967, with the last win being in 1993 (a most auspicious year for our family).   As someone born in Montreal, I have and ample supply of Habs' fandom in my blood.  I am always cheering for whichever Canadian teams are in the NHL playoffs. For the last 10 years that has included the Leafs - even though they haven't really gotten anywhere.  This year, the Canadiens are super-hot approaching the end of the season.  They will join the Edmonton Oilers as the only two Canadian terms that are in for sure - with chances still for Ottawa and Winnipeg to squeak in.  So I am hoping for a dark horse Montreal victory - but I would also be happy to see the Edmonton Oilers win the cup.  Either way, I'll definitely have less hockey to watch this year than some other years - with the Leafs not even making the playoffs. The NHL playoffs start this year on Saturday  April 18, 2026.  For those watching  from Israel, this means about 2 a.m. on Sunday April 19th.

The World Cup of Soccer, from June 11, 2026 to July 19, 2026 will attract much more viewership in Israel than the NHL playoffs (by multiples of thousands or tens of thousands) even though Israel is not participating.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to make it in since Israel is forced to compete in the European division instead of playing its neighbours.

One day, hopefully  sooner rather than later, Israel will have to play soccer luminaries like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran in order to earn its berth - instead of having to beat countries like Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy.  Jordan and Iran are both in this year's tournament.  While Israel might not fare so well against Iran  in a soccer match, I am fairly confident that the Israeli side would be able to beat Jordan quite easily.  

Finally, I have to mention that I am super excited about baseball season and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Normally, I don't pay much attention to baseball until the hockey playoffs have ended. But with the Blue Jays' heart-breaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last year, and the various upgrades made by the team in the off-season, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic year for the Jays.  They are only 4-2 so far - but I think this is one of the most exciting baseball teams that Toronto has had in many years.  I am looking forward to getting to some games when I am in Toronto.  Tough to watch from Israel - especially weekday games that are on at 2 a.m. Israel time - but I'm often on Toronto hours anyways.

That's about it for now.  I want to wish everyone a "Mo'adim  L'Simchah" (or Chag Sameach if it is Chag for you - or if it was when I sent this) and a Shabbat Shalom.  I hope everyone enjoys the rest of this Pesach holiday and that there is some good news - "b'sorot tovot" soon.  For friends and readers celebrating Easter - I wish you a meaningful Good Friday and a wonderful Easter weekend.

Pre-Pesach and War Update 2026

I arrived back in Israel last night on a full El Al flight from London.  Okay - it wasn't totally full - the seat next to me was vacant - which was nice.  But otherwise, it was fairly full.  These days, the only airlines flying into Israel are El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa.  The flights coming in are full -  even though only a limited number are arriving.

It is much harder to leave.  Flights are leaving Israel with only 40 or 50 passengers and many of  these flights have been cancelled.  I know quite a number of people who have left Israel though Taba (at the Egyptian-Israeli border) and taken a cab or other transportation to the Sharm-El-Sheikh airport and flown from there.  Some  have been flying from  the Taba airport.  They fly to Cyprus, Athens, Istanbul or other European destinations - and then onwards to wherever they are going.

Some have been crossing into Jordan and flying on Arkia from Aqaba airport in Jordan.  However, apparently, today, the  Jordanian government announced a change in its policies and refused to allow Arkia flights to take off with a large number of Israelis stranded at the Aqaba airport.  This is a developing story - and I am not sure how this will get sorted out.  Apparently, some of these flights are now being rerouted to Taba airport but some have been cancelled altogether.  Sounds like quite a bit of chaos for people trying to leave Israel through these alternate routes. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government has been increasing the border fees that are being charged to people who want to cross from Israel into Egypt to leave from the  Taba airport - payable only in U.S. cash. So if you are crossing into Egypt from Israel, you should probably have at least $500 USD per person with you - arrive early - and be prepared for delays and cancellations.  As for Aqaba - that seems like an even less reliable option - unless you fly on a Jordanian airline - or  one that has clearly been approved by the  Jordanian government.

For my return flight, since it was so close to Pesach (which starts on Wednesday night) there were many people on the plane coming to Israel (or coming home) for the holiday.  Several men held a Mincha service before the plane left - so of course we knew our flight would be a safe one. The last twenty minutes of the flight were quite nerve wracking as everyone wondered if there would be a missile alert as we were coming in for landing (despite the prophylactic prayer service that had taken place earlier together with multiple people reading tefillat haderech - the prayer for the traveller).  But all was quiet and the plane landed uneventfully - at which point clapping, cheering and signing all broke out.  It was quite emotional. So perhaps the cynicism is unwarranted.  I'll let each person drawn their own conclusions.

The Ben Gurion airport was quite empty. This was the only flight arriving.  No flights were leaving at this time.  It still took a while to collect my suitcase (they made me check my carry on bag for "security reasons.") The roads were  also fairly empty and  it took only about 20 minutes to get back to Ra'anana once I had collected my bag.

At  1:30 a.m. we had our first missile alert - and had to go into the safe room (the "Mamad") until we received the "all clear."  Our next missile alert was at about 2 p.m. or so.  This contrasts quite a bit with yesterday where central Israel had 11 sirens through the first 2/3 of the day. From Friday's missile barrage, six people were reported as having been wounded, though none are in serious condition. Since I have been back (Thursday March 26th in the evening) there have been 5 missile alert sirens in Ra'anana - which means going into our protected safe room and waiting until the threat has passed - usually about 10 minutes in total).  We have not had one yet today - I think that last one was at some point on Saturday morning.

That's not to say that there have not been missile attacks today - there were apparently several in southern Israel including Beersheva and other places - including a reported direct hit on a factory.  But so far, missiles have not been aimed today at Tel-Aviv and its surrounding cities.

State of the War

As you might know, President Trump delivered an ultimatum last week.  If the Iranians did not agree to his demands by 5:30 p.m. on Friday (right after the markets closed), he was going to escalate the war and  attack Iranian  energy sites and/or seize the Hormuz Strait. The Iranians responded by threatening to attack sites across the Gulf and to take other escalated actions.  So we were left to speculate as to what would happen.  In one of his posts this week, Hillel Fuld, a well known blogger, went though the different scenarios and I do agree that he outlined them correctly:

1. One scenario is that if Iran does not acquiesce (and it seems highly unlikely that they would), the U.S. would escalate the war significantly.  This could include trying to find the Iranian enriched uranium, seizing Iranian oil-producing facilities or taking steps to open the Strait of Hormuz.  Iranians have threatened their own forms of escalation in response.  The U.S. has moved a significant number of marines and other service personnel to the region and it still seems like there is a decent chance that the U.S. will proceed with a massive escalation at some point.  Supporters of escalation include Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump's Evangelical supporters, MBS of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and most of the Israeli public (70-75% according to some poll numbers).  These different proponents believe that the job is not finished, that none of the war aims have been achieved yet and that the mission can actually be accomplished.

2. Another scenario is that Trump could simply look for the best off-ramp and take it.  It seems that he is being pushed in this direction by many non-Evangelical MAGA supporters.  He is also facing pressure from world leaders in many different countries, poll numbers in the U.S. showing vast disapproval of this war, other domestic opposition and pressures of the markets and the rising price of oil.  Trump of course, likes to portray his image as being dependent only on himself - so it is unclear that all of these pressures would really sway him. Especially if the Iranians are not prepared to  present a proposal that Trump can sell as a victory.

3. A third scenario would be for the U.S. to end its involvement and let Israel continue on its own versus Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is  not very likely in my view.  If Trump declares an end to the war - Israeli will almost surely follow, irrespective of whether Bibi has yet to receive his pardon or whether Israel agrees that the war should end.  The war may continue for a period  of time between Israel and Hezbollah until a deal can be reached - even after there is a deal with Iran.

Earlier in the week, I was wavering on which was more likely.  It looked to me like Trump was pulling the  plug on the whole war and looking for an off-ramp. However, he couldn't give the name of  anyone  he was actually speaking to, the Iranians were denying that they had agreed to anything - or were going to -   and more troops were being moved to the region. This was looking more like a potential U.S. surrender (like the way that the U.S. left Viet Nam).

By Wednesday, I was convinced that we would know by Friday night.  Either there would be a big announcement of a breakthrough deal - or a huge U.S. attack would begin Friday night. My thought was that a major escalation was starting to look a bit more likely.

However, on Friday, Trump announced that he was giving the Iranians 10 more days until April 6th to agree to his plan or reach a deal. Although a major U.S. escalation is still possible, this is looking much more like a U.S. capitulation.  The Iranians  do not appear to be giving in on any major points - and Trump appears to be increasingly interested in concluding this war.

However, as of mid-day today, Trump has continued to announce further troop deployments - either to ramp up the threat as a bluff - or because he has decided that he is going to escalate.  We will know the answer soon.

I think the situation is not looking great either way.

At the war's outset, the U.S. set out four war aims.  The aims included ending the Iranian nuclear program, changing the leadership in Iran, destroying the system of Iranian proxies getting support for terrorism from Iran (Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and destroying the Iranian long-range missile program. Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have made progress on items 1 and 4, it does not appear that any of these goals have really been accomplished.

The U.S. has now, as of Sunday March 29, 2026, announced that even more U.S. troops, planes and ships will be deployed to the region.  Unless Trump is able to negotiate something that looks like he has achieved at least one of his aims, we may see a major escalation starting by April 6th.

From the Israeli side of things, Israel has been advancing further into Lebanon in a bid to push Hezbollah back and stop or reduce attacks on Israel - especially the towns and cities in Israel's north.  Hezbollah may face a reduced access to funds as Iran is weakened but it is still a formidable challenge for Israel.  The solution is a peace deal with Lebanon in which there is an agreement that Hezbollah will not return to Israel's borders.  This need to be enforced, perhaps by some sort of international force that will actually do the job (unlike the UN which simply turned a blind eye to Hezbollah violations of past agreements).

Meanwhile, many Israeli reservists (which is the vast majority of people aged 21-45 in the country) have been called into reserve duty including, now, two of our family members, at least one of whom may have to miss our family Passover Seder. 

Pesach

Pesach begins with the Seder on Wednesday April 1, 2026.  Israel just changed its clocks and sprung ahead on Thursday night March 26/27 - so sundown in the centre of the country is  now 6:42 p.m., which means that the Seder can begin at about 7:30 p.m. after people come back from synagogue.  That  is about an hour earlier than Toronto, which is quite nice. There is only one Seder in Israel and only a total of 7 days of Pesach instead of  8 outside of  Israel.

Stores are well stocked with Passover products but do not go as crazy with the shelf lining paper etc., as they do in North America.  However, during Passover, Israeli stores do not even sell products that are not kosher for Passover - they block whole sections off and temporarily remove the bar codes from the cash register systems - so that you cannot even pay for the Hametz  products.  This is all dictated by Israeli law.

Israel Elections

As of now, Israeli elections are still scheduled to occur by the end of  October 31, 2026.  Hopefully this war will be over well before then.  I will hold off on making any  election predictions until closer to the election date.  

I would simply say that if there is no clear indication that  this war has been a success for Israel (and right now, that seems to be the case), the situation is likely to be similar to what it is now or perhaps a bit worse for Prime Minister Netanyahu.  On the other hand, if the United States and Israel wind up accomplishing one or two of the war goals that they had set out - that could  provide Netanyahu with a significant jump.

Mood

It has been a very difficult period for Israelis - going all the way back to 2020.  Since Covid and then the October 7th war - things have been in a state of uncertainty and extreme economic challenge for most of the 6 year period.

In speaking to various people, many are really finding the challenges difficult - economically, psychologically, physically.  So many Israelis have spent a huge amount of time serving in reserve duty. People are in and out of shelters.  Some people have safe areas in their homes or apartments - which is convenient and reasonably safe.  Other people have to run down to shared community shelters -  where people bring their pets, their friends, etc., Some of these shelters can hold more than a hundred people  -any time of day - even in the middle of the night.

All of that being said, I think Israelis are still generally optimistic and hopeful - that this will all work out well - and that the end result will have made things worthwhile.  I hope that this optimism is well founded.

Lighter Note

Someone sent me a meme the other day - that said "Israel is one of the few countries in which you have no idea when exactly your bus or train might come - but you know, to the minute, what time the missile attack will be arriving."  

Sports

Even in these crazy times, I have managed to catch a bit of the first two Toronto Blue Jay games -  both walk-off wins.  I think we are in for a super-exciting season for the Blue Jays.  That's not something that you can watch too easily when in Israel -  unless you have a VPN and a Sportsnet login.   

Usually this time of year, I am getting ready to watch some hockey playoffs - and see the Leafs go one or two rounds (usually just one).  This year, they collapsed even before the playoffs - so I am left with two Canadian teams to cheer for - the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers.  Small chance that either the Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets might also make it in but for  now, it is looking like only two Canadian teams.  Less hockey to watch, more time for work and keeping up with the news.

Oscars

This was one of the first years where I think I managed to watch all 10 Oscar nominees.  I actually enjoyed most of them.  A full article about all of the movies is for another time.

However, one theme that ran through at least three of the movies -  Train Dreams, Sentimental Value and Hamnet - was the theme of a family member working far away from his family for periods of time - and some of the challenges that creates.  One a writer, one a movie director and one a railway worker/ lumberjack.  Different types of work for sure, but a common theme of being away from family while young children grow up.  For someone who has been doing this for 17 years now, this is a theme that resonated quite a bit with me.  I would recommend all three movies - not  necessarily because of that theme. They were all really good movies otherwise.  

With that, I am going to wish everyone a happy, healthy and  Kosher Pesach. With the hope that we will soon see an end to these wars - and that we will have accomplished some of war goals aimed at creating conditions for a long lasting period of peace in Israel and throughout the Middle East.