It is much harder to leave. Flights are leaving Israel with only 40 or 50 passengers and many of these flights have been cancelled. I know quite a number of people who have left Israel though Taba (at the Egyptian-Israeli border) and taken a cab or other transportation to the Sharm-El-Sheikh airport and flown from there. Some have been flying from the Taba airport. They fly to Cyprus, Athens, Istanbul or other European destinations - and then onwards to wherever they are going.
Some have been crossing into Jordan and flying on Arkia from Aqaba airport in Jordan. However, apparently, today, the Jordanian government announced a change in its policies and refused to allow Arkia flights to take off with a large number of Israelis stranded at the Aqaba airport. This is a developing story - and I am not sure how this will get sorted out. Apparently, some of these flights are now being rerouted to Taba airport but some have been cancelled altogether. Sounds like quite a bit of chaos for people trying to leave Israel through these alternate routes. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government has been increasing the border fees that are being charged to people who want to cross from Israel into Egypt to leave from the Taba airport - payable only in U.S. cash. So if you are crossing into Egypt from Israel, you should probably have at least $500 USD per person with you - arrive early - and be prepared for delays and cancellations. As for Aqaba - that seems like an even less reliable option - unless you fly on a Jordanian airline - or one that has clearly been approved by the Jordanian government.
For my return flight, since it was so close to Pesach (which starts on Wednesday night) there were many people on the plane coming to Israel (or coming home) for the holiday. Several men held a Mincha service before the plane left - so of course we knew our flight would be a safe one. The last twenty minutes of the flight were quite nerve wracking as everyone wondered if there would be a missile alert as we were coming in for landing (despite the prophylactic prayer service that had taken place earlier together with multiple people reading tefillat haderech - the prayer for the traveller). But all was quiet and the plane landed uneventfully - at which point clapping, cheering and signing all broke out. It was quite emotional. So perhaps the cynicism is unwarranted. I'll let each person drawn their own conclusions.
The Ben Gurion airport was quite empty. This was the only flight arriving. No flights were leaving at this time. It still took a while to collect my suitcase (they made me check my carry on bag for "security reasons.") The roads were also fairly empty and it took only about 20 minutes to get back to Ra'anana once I had collected my bag.
At 1:30 a.m. we had our first missile alert - and had to go into the safe room (the "Mamad") until we received the "all clear." Our next missile alert was at about 2 p.m. or so. This contrasts quite a bit with yesterday where central Israel had 11 sirens through the first 2/3 of the day. From Friday's missile barrage, six people were reported as having been wounded, though none are in serious condition. Since I have been back (Thursday March 26th in the evening) there have been 5 missile alert sirens in Ra'anana - which means going into our protected safe room and waiting until the threat has passed - usually about 10 minutes in total). We have not had one yet today - I think that last one was at some point on Saturday morning.
That's not to say that there have not been missile attacks today - there were apparently several in southern Israel including Beersheva and other places - including a reported direct hit on a factory. But so far, missiles have not been aimed today at Tel-Aviv and its surrounding cities.
State of the War
As you might know, President Trump delivered an ultimatum last week. If the Iranians did not agree to his demands by 5:30 p.m. on Friday (right after the markets closed), he was going to escalate the war and attack Iranian energy sites and/or seize the Hormuz Strait. The Iranians responded by threatening to attack sites across the Gulf and to take other escalated actions. So we were left to speculate as to what would happen. In one of his posts this week, Hillel Fuld, a well known blogger, went though the different scenarios and I do agree that he outlined them correctly:
1. One scenario is that if Iran does not acquiesce (and it seems highly unlikely that they would), the U.S. would escalate the war significantly. This could include trying to find the Iranian enriched uranium, seizing Iranian oil-producing facilities or taking steps to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranians have threatened their own forms of escalation in response. The U.S. has moved a significant number of marines and other service personnel to the region and it still seems like there is a decent chance that the U.S. will proceed with a massive escalation at some point. Supporters of escalation include Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Trump's Evangelical supporters, MBS of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and most of the Israeli public (70-75% according to some poll numbers). These different proponents believe that the job is not finished, that none of the war aims have been achieved yet and that the mission can actually be accomplished.
2. Another scenario is that Trump could simply look for the best off-ramp and take it. It seems that he is being pushed in this direction by many non-Evangelical MAGA supporters. He is also facing pressure from world leaders in many different countries, poll numbers in the U.S. showing vast disapproval of this war, other domestic opposition and pressures of the markets and the rising price of oil. Trump of course, likes to portray his image as being dependent only on himself - so it is unclear that all of these pressures would really sway him. Especially if the Iranians are not prepared to present a proposal that Trump can sell as a victory.
3. A third scenario would be for the U.S. to end its involvement and let Israel continue on its own versus Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This is not very likely in my view. If Trump declares an end to the war - Israeli will almost surely follow, irrespective of whether Bibi has yet to receive his pardon or whether Israel agrees that the war should end. The war may continue for a period of time between Israel and Hezbollah until a deal can be reached - even after there is a deal with Iran.
Earlier in the week, I was wavering on which was more likely. It looked to me like Trump was pulling the plug on the whole war and looking for an off-ramp. However, he couldn't give the name of anyone he was actually speaking to, the Iranians were denying that they had agreed to anything - or were going to - and more troops were being moved to the region. This was looking more like a potential U.S. surrender (like the way that the U.S. left Viet Nam).
By Wednesday, I was convinced that we would know by Friday night. Either there would be a big announcement of a breakthrough deal - or a huge U.S. attack would begin Friday night. My thought was that a major escalation was starting to look a bit more likely.
However, on Friday, Trump announced that he was giving the Iranians 10 more days until April 6th to agree to his plan or reach a deal. Although a major U.S. escalation is still possible, this is looking much more like a U.S. capitulation. The Iranians do not appear to be giving in on any major points - and Trump appears to be increasingly interested in concluding this war.
However, as of mid-day today, Trump has continued to announce further troop deployments - either to ramp up the threat as a bluff - or because he has decided that he is going to escalate. We will know the answer soon.
I think the situation is not looking great either way.
At the war's outset, the U.S. set out four war aims. The aims included ending the Iranian nuclear program, changing the leadership in Iran, destroying the system of Iranian proxies getting support for terrorism from Iran (Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and destroying the Iranian long-range missile program. Although the U.S. and Israel appear to have made progress on items 1 and 4, it does not appear that any of these goals have really been accomplished.
The U.S. has now, as of Sunday March 29, 2026, announced that even more U.S. troops, planes and ships will be deployed to the region. Unless Trump is able to negotiate something that looks like he has achieved at least one of his aims, we may see a major escalation starting by April 6th.
From the Israeli side of things, Israel has been advancing further into Lebanon in a bid to push Hezbollah back and stop or reduce attacks on Israel - especially the towns and cities in Israel's north. Hezbollah may face a reduced access to funds as Iran is weakened but it is still a formidable challenge for Israel. The solution is a peace deal with Lebanon in which there is an agreement that Hezbollah will not return to Israel's borders. This need to be enforced, perhaps by some sort of international force that will actually do the job (unlike the UN which simply turned a blind eye to Hezbollah violations of past agreements).
Meanwhile, many Israeli reservists (which is the vast majority of people aged 21-45 in the country) have been called into reserve duty including, now, two of our family members, at least one of whom may have to miss our family Passover Seder.
Pesach
Pesach begins with the Seder on Wednesday April 1, 2026. Israel just changed its clocks and sprung ahead on Thursday night March 26/27 - so sundown in the centre of the country is now 6:42 p.m., which means that the Seder can begin at about 7:30 p.m. after people come back from synagogue. That is about an hour earlier than Toronto, which is quite nice. There is only one Seder in Israel and only a total of 7 days of Pesach instead of 8 outside of Israel.
Stores are well stocked with Passover products but do not go as crazy with the shelf lining paper etc., as they do in North America. However, during Passover, Israeli stores do not even sell products that are not kosher for Passover - they block whole sections off and temporarily remove the bar codes from the cash register systems - so that you cannot even pay for the Hametz products. This is all dictated by Israeli law.
Israel Elections
As of now, Israeli elections are still scheduled to occur by the end of October 31, 2026. Hopefully this war will be over well before then. I will hold off on making any election predictions until closer to the election date.
I would simply say that if there is no clear indication that this war has been a success for Israel (and right now, that seems to be the case), the situation is likely to be similar to what it is now or perhaps a bit worse for Prime Minister Netanyahu. On the other hand, if the United States and Israel wind up accomplishing one or two of the war goals that they had set out - that could provide Netanyahu with a significant jump.
Mood
It has been a very difficult period for Israelis - going all the way back to 2020. Since Covid and then the October 7th war - things have been in a state of uncertainty and extreme economic challenge for most of the 6 year period.
In speaking to various people, many are really finding the challenges difficult - economically, psychologically, physically. So many Israelis have spent a huge amount of time serving in reserve duty. People are in and out of shelters. Some people have safe areas in their homes or apartments - which is convenient and reasonably safe. Other people have to run down to shared community shelters - where people bring their pets, their friends, etc., Some of these shelters can hold more than a hundred people -any time of day - even in the middle of the night.
All of that being said, I think Israelis are still generally optimistic and hopeful - that this will all work out well - and that the end result will have made things worthwhile. I hope that this optimism is well founded.
Lighter Note
Someone sent me a meme the other day - that said "Israel is one of the few countries in which you have no idea when exactly your bus or train might come - but you know, to the minute, what time the missile attack will be arriving."
Sports
Even in these crazy times, I have managed to catch a bit of the first two Toronto Blue Jay games - both walk-off wins. I think we are in for a super-exciting season for the Blue Jays. That's not something that you can watch too easily when in Israel - unless you have a VPN and a Sportsnet login.
Usually this time of year, I am getting ready to watch some hockey playoffs - and see the Leafs go one or two rounds (usually just one). This year, they collapsed even before the playoffs - so I am left with two Canadian teams to cheer for - the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers. Small chance that either the Ottawa Senators or the Winnipeg Jets might also make it in but for now, it is looking like only two Canadian teams. Less hockey to watch, more time for work and keeping up with the news.
Oscars
This was one of the first years where I think I managed to watch all 10 Oscar nominees. I actually enjoyed most of them. A full article about all of the movies is for another time.
However, one theme that ran through at least three of the movies - Train Dreams, Sentimental Value and Hamnet - was the theme of a family member working far away from his family for periods of time - and some of the challenges that creates. One a writer, one a movie director and one a railway worker/ lumberjack. Different types of work for sure, but a common theme of being away from family while young children grow up. For someone who has been doing this for 17 years now, this is a theme that resonated quite a bit with me. I would recommend all three movies - not necessarily because of that theme. They were all really good movies otherwise.
With that, I am going to wish everyone a happy, healthy and Kosher Pesach. With the hope that we will soon see an end to these wars - and that we will have accomplished some of war goals aimed at creating conditions for a long lasting period of peace in Israel and throughout the Middle East.
