This will probably be my last blog for the summer but I expect that I will have a thing or two to write in September and October as we near Israel's election on October 27, 2026.
These days, we have been on eggshells - or shpilkes if you prefer, waiting to see what will develop in the current war. As you might know, President Trump has been threatening to launch massive attacks against Iran to try and pressure Iran into making significant concessions (or perhaps, more correctly, any concessions) towards some kind of cease fire deal. According to various Israeli reports, a major attack was planned for Friday night (July 24, 2026). At the last minute, apparently under pressure from Vice President Vance and others, including military commanders and advisors, Trump cancelled the attacks.
I would say that the mood in Israel seems very mixed. On the one hand, there is a feeling in Israel that the first round of fighting with Iran (or perhaps, more accurately, the second or third round) ended prematurely with what was more or less a U.S. surrender. None of the U.S.' war objectives were achieved - and the same can be said for Israel. The Iranians do not appear to have made many, if any, concessions. In fact, Iran has emerged from the war with some level of control over the Hormuz Strait, something it did have going into the war. Iran still has its nuclear program intact, still has its network of proxies in place including the Houthies in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other allies in Iraq, Gaza and other places. And Iran is continuing to rebuild its missile program and capabilities. The same leadership is running the country even if it is now either Khomenai's son Mojtaba, or some unnamed IRGC leaders. Overall, by any objective measure, this war can only be characterized as a massive defeat for the U.S. and Israel, even though both countries claim to have caused significant damage to Iranian infrastructure and military capabilities. By any measure, a war that ends with a country in a better geopolitical position than it was before the war can only be defined as a victory for that country. Iran's control of the Hormoz straits and the list of terms that are being negotiated with the U.S. bears no resemblance whatsoever to a U.S. victory.
As a result, many Israelis are certainly of the view that only a series of massive U.S. attacks might move the Iranian regime to make more concessions and give the U.S. some type of victory at least some demonstrable gain from the war. Of course, that could backfire - and Iran could demonstrate an ability to continue resisting - and perhaps emerge with even further gains. From the Israeli point of view, the risk is worth taking - and certainly Prime Minister Netanyahu is anxiously waiting, if not begging Trump, for the attacks to resume.
On the other hand, any major renewed attacks on Iran will almost certainly bring an array of missile attacks to Israel, which will affect Israel's economy, cause the loss of life, shut down the airports and put Israelis in and out of shelters for several days if not weeks. From various reports that I heard and the "mood on the street," my view is that a majority of Israelis are willing to risk all of that. They seem to feel that there is a unique opportunity now to do something about the current Iranian regime - and that the combination of having Trump in the White House, having a weakened Iranian leadership and a weakened network of proxies, all makes this an ideal time to try and "finish the job" (whatever that might mean).
I think Israelis underestimate the domestic and international pressure the Trump is facing - as well as the limitations on his freedom of action due to deals or understandings with a variety of countries including Qatar, Russia and others. On Friday, it certainly seemed that this war was going to ramp up at any time in a big way. Now, I am starting to become less convinced (even though Trump might be bluffing with his announcement that he will not be attacking).
The manner in which the previous round of fighting ended is indicative that Trump's "bark is worse than his bite" and the Iranians probably have a very good understanding of that now. If things end this way, the end result from the U.S. - Iranian conflict will have been a weakened perception of the U.S. Military, a stronger and more confident Iran, a weakening of the U.S. -Israel relationship and, most likely, a renewed determination by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.
All of this is disastrous for Prime Minister Netanyahu who was hoping that he would have some kind of victory to flout from this war. Unfortunately for him, at this point, there is no good news to report, even though he will attempt to spin the war in various directions to support his bid for another re-election. Netanyahu would, of course, happily pay the price that Israel would bear of renewed fighting with Iran, in a bid to bolster his election chances - and with the hope that the U.S. and Israel would be able to realize some gains from renewed hostilities. The worst case outcome for Netanyahu would be several Iranian missiles hitting Israel and another "truce" that leaves things in more or less the same state that they are currently. But Netanyahu's calculation would be that all of this would leave him in a position that is no worse than where he is currently (politically) - so, effectively, "why not?"
Several International airlines announced that they were cancelling flights to Israel over the weekend - so I don't think we are out of the woods yet in terms of a possible renewal of fighting. And of course Trump is very unpredictable. But overall, there seems to be an emerging likelihood that another major U.S. or U.S./Israeli attack on Iran is not in the cards. I guess we will have to wait and see.
On a very personal note, it is looking more likely that upcoming flights this week will proceed as scheduled and that any decision to renew fighting may be postponed by several days if not weeks.
Preliminary Election News
The Democrats - which is an amalgamation of the old Labour Party (a party with a traditionally socialist worker bent) and the old Meretz party (a far left party with a libertarian bent - at least on state vs religion issues) held its "primaries" and assembled a list of candidates based on the voting results of more than 100,000 Israelis. The slate includes religious and secular candidates, Arab Israeli candidates and many familiar faces. The "Democrats" are currently the only Jewish majority party in Israel that does not describe itself as being "right wing" or "centre-right." They are currently polling at an estimate of between 9 and 11 seats - and could play a big role in any future government if it is government that not led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The other party that has traditionally held wide-ranging primaries has been the Likud party - which usually winds up with hundreds of thousands of Israelis voting to set the "list" in place - with numbers ranging from 1 to 50 or so for possible positions that Likud party members could be in after voting results. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been particularly worried this year about these primaries, fearing the possibility that some dissenting voices would wind up in high ranked positions.
So he floated various ideas to address this situation. First he asked the Likud party (which has a governing body) to cancel the primaries due to "unique circumstances" and allow a panel (that he would hand pick of course) to simply select the full slate of candidates. After this was rejected, he asked for the right to nominate 20 "hand-picked" candidates that would be strategically placed in the top 40. Then he went down to asking for 15. This back and forth continued until he came to a deal with the Likud party that he could nominate 8 candidates, placed in designated positions in the top 30. However, the Party also agreed that if "security considerations" warrant, Netanyahu could cancel the primaries and use a committee to pick all of the candidates.
Internally, Likud party members challenged this agreement and went to the Likud Court - and internal decision making tribunal - which ruled that the primaries could not cancelled. The court held that even if there was a serious security situation, there were alternatives including electronic voting etc., Overall, this was a significant and embarrassing defeat for Netanyahu, within his own party. He cannot blame the "deep state," the "leftist Israeli Supreme Court" or some of the other non-Likud candidates.
The result is that Netanyahu may wind up with a a range of candidates who are prepared to challenge his leadership and/or his decisions - even if they do not do so in a public way initially. The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026 and that should be fascinating.
Polling results are released almost daily in Israel. Looking at a range of polls, it seems to be a close race between the Yashar Party (led by Gadi Eisenkot) and Likud led by Netanyahu for the highest number of votes with both parties in the range of 20 to 25 predicted seats.
For building a coalition the predications are currently that the opposition could get between 57 and 62 seats and Netanyahu's government could get between 48 and 55. Parties seeking to form a government need to be able to present a coalition agreement with 61 seats. So unless there is a shift, we could be facing some type of stalemate. (We have been there before). That being said, there is lots of time between now and election day and things could change drastically.
Other Comments
I have no sports news to report - since the only thing going on that interests me currently is baseball and the Toronto Blue Jays are having a terrible season. (Sorry if I offended anyone who is glued to the TV watching some other sport). NFL and NHL will be starting soon and in December 2026, there will be a draw for 2028 Euros - and hopefully Israel will have a chance of making it.
This is probably all of the best as we can all get outside and enjoy the summer weather, as long as it is not 40c.
I updated my index for this blog (Index is hyperlinked). Over the years, I have now written about 350 blog articles. As usual, you can feel free to send this to anyone who you think might be interested - and they can email me at rananareveller@gmail.com if they would like to be added to the list. Or you can email me if you want to be removed from the current list.
You can also feel free to write back with your comments, preferably constructive, though I am happy to engage with a wide variety of viewpoints.
