Lieberman: Hero or Opportunist? Latest Rumblings from Israel.

Avigdor Lieberman heads the "Yisrael Beitenu" ("Israel, Our Home") party in Israel.  He is a bit more of a complex politician than one might have thought.  On the one hand, he is viewed by some as a far right wing nationalist.  Certainly he has made some comments in the past about Israel's Arab population that can only be described as "racist."  He is unpredictable and will often say some things that many politicians would probably later regret.

At the same time, he can sometimes be far more practical than his right wing Israeli counterparts.  Lieberman, for example, has indicated that he is prepared to support a true "two-state solution" whereby one state would be a Palestinian state for Palestinians and the other state would be a Jewish state.  While some of his opponents call this a form of "ethnic cleansing," it is actually a far more logical solution than such epithets might suggest.  As part of any solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he argues, the Palestinians should be prepared to resolve any issue of Palestinian refugees by taking in as many Palestinians as would like to come - to their nascent state.  In this context, he also argues that it is logical to draw the borders of the two states in such a way that the large Jewish populations in Gush Etzion and other West Bank areas remain in Israel; whereas areas with overwhelmingly Palestinian populations, even if those areas are currently part of Israel, are to be ceded to the Palestinian state.  These proposals, he holds, would be most likely to ensure that there is a truly workable two state solution to the Palestinian conflict.  For many, this makes much more sense for Israel's long term security than Bennett's plan to annex the West Bank ("Judea and Samaria").  Then what?  Bennett and others on the right have no answer.  For the long run, Lieberman has suggested that Israel's Arabs who choose to continue to live in Israel, rather than the Palestinian state, should be prepared to serve in Israel's military or national service and should be entitled to full equality of opportunity. 

But getting back to Lieberman's current situation, he is a secular nationalist politician rather than a religious nationalist.  His constituency is in favour of easing the restrictions on conversions to Judaism, lessening the power of the religious authorities over the state (especially the ultra-religious) and reducing state funding of the ultra-Orthodox institutions.  Much of this would explain why Lieberman and his party were able to sit in a government with Lapid's Yesh Atid in the previous coalition, even though Lapid is viewed as much more of centrist.

But now, Prime Minister Netanyahu has reversed directions completely from the previous government that he led.  The first party that he signed up to join his coalition was United Torah Judaism.  I wrote about the concessions that Netanyahu made in my lost blog.  Certainly these concessions would be very hard to stomach for anyone with Lieberman's views about religion and state.  The concessions make it virtually impossible that Lapid's Yesh Atid party would even negotiate with this government, let alone join it.  But Lieberman was still negotiating.

Then today, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced another coalition agreement.  He had signed up the other ultra-religious party, led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and was willing to provide that party with a fat range of concessions and ministerial portfolios.  Things get uglier and uglier by the day for those who endorse some level of shul-state separation or religious pluralism in Israel.

After the Shas announcement, Lieberman announced that his party would not join this government. This will leave Netanyahu with a razor-thin 61 seat government (out of 120 in the Knesset), once Netanyahu finalizes an arrangement with Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" (Jewish Home) party.   

It is too early, in my view, to determine whether Lieberman is using this pressure as a negotiating tactic to wrangle some further concessions out of Netanyahu or whether he is taking a principled approach.  It is fair to say that over the years, Lieberman has not always been characterized as a man of principle.  We will probably have a better idea over the next few days.

If Lieberman stays out of the government, the big winners are bound to be Yair Lapid and Lieberman himself.  Many Israelis who voted for Likud or Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party will be sorely disappointed to see that the biggest priority of their new government will be to restore a vast range of funding to various ultra-religious programs and to retract on the requirement that ultra-orthodox share the military burden of defending the state.  Many Israelis will find it hard to fathom that the solution for Israel's current financial situation is to take huge sums of money and pour it into ultra-religious programs, at the expense of universal health, education, infrastructure and other priorities.  This could mean a relatively short-lived government and a big boost for Lapid and Lieberman in the next election (at the expense of Likud and Kulanu seats).

On the other hand, if Lieberman simply uses this opportunity to extract further concessions for his party and himself and then joins a government which goes ahead with this ultra-religious program, he will undoubtedly alienate even more of his constituency (he had already fallen from 13 to 6 seats in the most recent election).

It should be interesting to follow.  I am inclined to suggest that many Israelis watching these events unfold will be much more likely to vote for Lapid in the next election.  This could create quite the pendulum swing in the religion-state relationship.  For Netanyahu to go ahead with such far reaching changes, while only holding a one seat majority, will be perilous for him and his party - as well as for Kahlon who will be seen as an accomplice to this shift towards the ultra-religious.   

Then again, all of that is an "optimistic" view of Israeli voters from a democratic, pluralistic view point.  If Israelis really do prefer to have the ultra-religious hold the balance of power....well...it becomes hard to imagine where we are headed.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is supposed to present the final governing coalition by May 7, 2015.  It will be fascinating to see what takes place in the late night, closed door meetings between now and then. 


  
   

Latest Israeli Coalition News...Return to Pre-2012

MK Moshe Gafni - New Head of Knesset Finance Committee?

There is a great deal going on in Israel these days, only some of which is making its way to the headlines around the world.

Following the disastrous earthquake in Nepal, Israel was among the first countries to send assistance.  Israel has sent more than 250 doctors and rescue personnel to find and assist the victims of the earthquake in Nepal and to treat the wounded.  This is one of the largest contingents in the world.  This is Israel at its finest, acting as a "light among nations."

There has also been a great deal of military activity in the Golan Heights and South Lebanon areas.  Some of the attacks on Hezbollah missile shipments have been denied by the Israeli Defence Forces.  Nevertheless, the ongoing hostilities in Syria and Lebanon are constantly threatening to spill over into a broader military conflagration involving Israel.  This is the ongoing existential reality that Israel faces.

While these life and death events are taking place, Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to finalize a coalition agreement with his various intended coalition partners so that he can put a formal government into place by May 7, 2015, the deadline that has been provided by the Israeli president in accordance with Israeli election laws.

YNet News reported today that the Likud party has reached deals with two parties so far - United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu Party.  Negotiations continue with the other proposed coalition partners.  For supporters of religious pluralism in Israel, the news is devastating, though predictable.

UTJ is an ultra-religious party that won 6 seats in the recent elections (out of the 120 seats in the Knesset).  In its negotiations with the Likud party, it apparently put forward some 70 demands.  YNet news reported today that Likud had agreed to many of these demands.  The essence of this deal is that the various changes that were made at the behest of Yesh Atid and its leader Yair Lapid in the previous government will all be rolled back.  

It will now be highly unlikely (and certainly not compulsory) that the Ultra-Religious (Haredim) will be required to serve in the Israeli Defence Forces.  Certainly there will be no criminal sanctions for refusing to serve.

Changes that were being made to liberalize Israel's conversion laws will be repealed.

The cuts that had been made to the budget for Yeshivas will be reversed as will the plan for Haredim to study secular subjects in school.

UTJ MK Moshe Gafni will be the Chair of the Knesset's powerful Finance Committee.  UTJ will have a veto over any matter that involve "religion and the state."  The list goes on and on - but I am only mentioning some of the "highlights."

Overall, these are far reaching changes that will restore tighter religious control over many areas of Israeli society (weddings, funerals, conversions etc.,) to the Ultra-Religious.  For those who were hoping to see a further liberalization of laws in religion-state areas (that we had only begun to see under the previous government), they will be sorely disappointed by this deal.

It is particularly upsetting to see that Prime Minister Netanyahu is so readily willing to turn over so much power to anti-Zionist, ultra-religious leaders all in the name of keeping himself and his party in power.  The State of Israel and the majority of its population would surely be much better served with a broader coalition that would be strong enough to limit the concessions to the ultra-religious parties.

For Lapid supporters, perhaps this will ultimately work out well.  Perhaps Israelis will feel the impact of this type of ultra-religious bolstered government and will reconsider their positions in the next elections.  Perhaps, it will remind them why they voted for change in the previous election.  If not, Israel may wind up with a range of new, even more far reaching religious legislation that will move Israel further along the path towards becoming a religious state.

Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah - 2015

It is now 70 years since the liberation of Auschwitz and other Nazi death camps and concentration camps.  The liberation marked the end of the Holocaust, during which some six million Jews were murdered.  This evening marked the start of Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah in Israel - Holocaust and Heroism Remembrance Day.  We began our commemoration of the day by attending the City of Ra'anana's Yom Hashoah ceremony at the centre of the city - "Yad L'Banim."

On the evening of Yom Hashoah, stores and restaurants are closed across the country.  The main street in Ra'anana is closed off to traffic.  Residents come from across the city to the ceremony, which is very powerful.

The event included a speech by Ra'anana's Mayor Ze'ev Bielski, whose grandparents were murdered in the Holocaust.  His young parents had left years before the war began to travel to Israel to help build the not yet established state.  He was named after his late grandfather.  It was a powerful speech.  He spoke about his participation in the March of Living in Poland.  He recalled that as he had sat at the main March of the Living ceremony in Poland a few years ago, he had wrapped himself in a Tallith.  He had looked across at the Polish dignitaries who were in attendance and he had felt pride at participating in an event which recognized that Jewish pride and the Jewish people had not been defeated.  Despite the fact that one third of the world's Jews were murdered, the surviving Jewish people had found a way to establish the State of Israel and to embark on a rebuilding process.

Six Holocaust survivors were called up individually to light six different candles.  As each survivor came to the podium, usually accompanied by grandchildren, a narrator described the survivor's life story.  These were all people who had lost almost all of their families in the Holocaust.  They were also almost all people who had come to Israel after the war, married and established families with children, grandchildren and in some cases, great grandchildren.  Some were accompanied by grandchildren who now serve in the Israeli Defence Forces.  The theme echoed the theme of the Mayor's speech.  That despite the terrible ordeals that these survivors had faced, they had, each in their own way, and against incredible odds, made it to Israel and participated in building the Jewish state and rebuilding the Jewish nation.

The ceremony also featured several musical pieces, with orchestral accompaniment including a Czech piece that had been written by Thereisenstadt prisoner who had perished in 1944.  Her musical composition had somehow been preserved and was now being performed in Ra'anana some 70 years after the liberation of the camp.

After the special El Maleh Rachamim prayer, the evening closed with a power Hatikvah sung by a teary eyed crowd.

It was really one of those ceremonies that brought home the great fortune of being able to live and participate in a Jewish state, something that would have been unimaginable to the Jews of Europe during wartime. 

Tomorrow, Israelis across the country will observe two minutes of silence, wherever they are, as sirens wail across the nation to mark the time. 

The thought on the minds of many Israelis will be the enormous burden, responsibility and obligations of being the next generation of Jewish people - faced with preserving, continuing and strengthening the Jewish people, while defending the country against the existential threats it faces.  It is now up to this and future generations to ensure that "Never Again" is a reality.

Yemenite Matzot for Passover

Making Matzah in Kiryat Eqron, Israel

What is matzah, really?  We know that observant Jews are not allowed to eat bread on Passover and are commanded, instead, to eat only unleavened bread.  But what did that unleavened bread really like like?  For most Jews, matzah is hard and flat and comes in box.  It is fairly tasteless.  Its uniformity is quite consistent and even boring - other than the special "shmurah" matzah that is prepared by hand.

But for Yemenite Jews, matzah is much more like pita bread.  Although it is not nearly as fluffy and chewy as regular pitas, it is soft and more doughy than most matzah.  Even today, in many parts of Israel, Yemenite Jews make fresh matzah each day on Passover.  We had the chance to make some on Tuesday and I thought I would write a bit about it.

The process starts with strictly supervised "kemach shmurah" - carefully supervised flour.  Special care has been taken to ensure that the flour has not come into contact with water or any other leavening agents.  The flour is purchased before Pesach starts and kept in a dry location.

When it is time to start preparing the matzah, there are several key points to keep in mind.  First of all, the "oven" itself. Yemenite matzah is prepared in a tabun - which is basically a tandoori oven.  The oven burns wood which must be brought to the right temperature for matzah making.  So the first step is to put the right amount of wood and kindling into the oven and get a nice fire going.  Once the wood is smouldering, the oven is ready and matzot can be cooked on the walls of the oven.

Now - for the preparation.  About 6 cups of flour are mixed with a similar amount of water.  The baker must continually mix the flour to ensure that the dough does not have time to rest and start leavening.  (This is a halachic requirement that ensures that the matzah is actually kosher for passover).  Interestingly, Yemenite Jews add a bit of salt to the flour-water mixture.  Some Ashkenazi rabbis have banned the use of salt in matzah but it is apparently more of a tradition than a law.

The baker continues to mix the dough until the texture is appropriate for matzah making.  This is where experience comes into play.

Next, some of the smouldering wood is removed from the oven.  The walls of the oven are cleaned and rubbed with oil.  Then, the baker breaks off about 1/8 or 1/9 of the dough, flattens it a bit and spreads it onto the hot wall of the tabun.  Water is used to help the dough spread and stick to the wall. 

This process continues until the baker has placed 8 or 9 dough pieces on the walls of the oven.  Lots of water is used, both to cool the arms of the baker and to help spread the matzah and ensure that it sticks to the walls.  The photo above was taken midway through the process after about 5 matzot were prepared.

Some of the hot wood that was removed from the oven is now placed back in the oven so that the temperature can continue to rise.  The baker lights some palm branches on fire and uses the fire and smoke to help cook the outside of the matzot that are stuck to the walls of the oven.

The actual cooking time might be 5 or 6 minutes.  By tradition, the entire process, from the mixing of the dough to the complete cooking of the matzot must take less than 18 minutes.  Our process was complete in 15 minutes and you can see the finished product.

If you are sticking to fairly rigorous Ashkenazi rules, you might eat the fresh matzot with cream cheese, butter or jam.  No kitniyot based spreads could be used.  If you are following Eastern traditions, you might have these matzot with some humus, which is permissible for Sephardic and other non-Ashkenazi Jews on Passover.

In our case, we ate the matzot with curried chicken soup and freshly slaughtered curried goat (well - freshly slaughtered, just before Pesach).  This meal can also be enjoyed with some hot sauce (chili peppers, garlic and cilantro leaves - or zhoug).  I think I put a bit too much in my soup...but it was still delicious.

Finally, this should all be enjoyed with an appropriate kosher Israeli wine for the occasion.  I picked up a bottle of Trio Winery's "Spirit of Jerusalem" wine, which should suit this type of meal nicely.  We'll find out tonight.

Passover will end, officially, tomorrow night in Israel but that will lead right into Shabbat.  Since there would be no opportunity to change back dishes, buy back the chametz or go out and buy ingredients, we wind up with a default additional day of pesach. 

As delicious as these Yemenite matzot are, I'm looking forward to getting back to our regular eating patterns.  Chag Sameach!
 

April 1 2015 - Upcoming White House Seder with President Obama

With the Passover Holiday approaching, the White House has been planning its annual Pesach Seder.  This year, the Seder will feature some new and interesting guests.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is expected to attend along with Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Husseini Khameini.  The Ayatollah will be drinking grape juice rather than wine throughout the Seder (for religious reasons).  However, he is expected to propose a fifth cup to the "destruction of Israel," a theme he outlined in a recent tweet entitled "9 questions about the elimination of Israel."

President Rouhani and the Ayatollah will be seated next to Jeremy Ben-Ami, head of U.S. group "J Street."  They will be discussing the recent Israeli election results.

Canadian Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is planning to attend along with former Canadian Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour (who has, in the past, repeatedly attacked Israel for alleged war crimes), as well as several other current and former Liberal MPs.  Prominent Liberal MP Irwin Cotler was apparently "unavailable."  Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was not invited.  He has contacted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and asked if he could join him at a Seder elsewhere.

Some well known entertainers will also be in attendance in Washington.  Trevor Noah, the new host of the Daily Show will be attending.  He has prepared some new tweets for the occasion.  He has not yet tweeted them but he insists that they will be as entertaining and tasteful as his previous tweets about Israel and about Jewish people.  He will be seated with Pink Floyd member Roger Waters, a prominent BDS activist and several other entertainers.  Madonna was reportedly invited but declined the invitation as she will be attending a real Seder in Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not on the guest list this year.  However, he will be attending an alternate, concurrent Seder in Washington led by Republican House Speaker John Boehner and several Tea Party members.  The Seder will be held a few blocks from the White House.  Speaker Bohner's group did not tell President Obama about the concurrent Seder or about its guest list.  However, they insisted that this was not, in any way, a politically motivated event.  The Boehner group will open the Seder with readings from the book of Revelations (speaking about Gog and Magog and the coming nuclear war) and will be featuring a special fifth cup of wine with the hope of  bringing Iran out of slavery and into a period of freedom. 

Finally, the Chief Rabbi of Israel was invited to attend the Presidential Seder.  He was not able to attend but he did offer a blessing instead:  "May God bless President Obama and keep him far away from the Jewish people."  I guess he had recently been watching Fiddler on the Roof.

Chag Sameach and Shabbat Shalom to everyone.

April 1, 2015

Israel Elections 2015: A Few More Interesting Points

I have written a number of columns over the past few days.  Well, I have to say that there are few things more interesting than a closely contested national election.  If you are one of those people reading this column, there is a good chance that you agree.

So I thought I would put together a few interesting points about the results and the aftermath.  This information is available on YNet, Haaretz and some other news sources - but I have selected a few points that I found notable.

Results By City

I have provided a link to the YNet map of results by Israeli city (and even neighbourhood).  It is in Hebrew but if you have a map of Israel handy, it should be easy enough to decipher.

As with elections in many other democratic countries, voters in large cities tend to vote for more liberal parties.  There are some exceptions, of course, (like if the city happens to be a religious capital) but, not surprisingly, this can be seen to some extent in the Israeli electorate.  So in Tel-Aviv, the Zionist Camp picked up 34% of the vote, followed by 19% for Likud and 13% for Meretz.  In Haifa, the Zionist Camp won 25% of the vote, followed by 20% for Likud and 11% for Yesh Atid.  On the other hand, 24% of Jerusalem voters chose Likud while 21% voted for the Ultra-Religious Degel HaTorah party.  Another 10% of Jerusalem voters picked Shas.

Outside of those three cities, Likud fared quite well in cities of the next tier in size.  Likud wins included Rehovot (27%), Ashdod (27%), Ashkelon (40%) and Tiberias (45%).

Closer to home, 33% of Ra'anana voters cast their ballots for the Zionist Camp while Likud (21%) and Yesh Atid (14%) finished second and third respectively.

Then there is "home away from home"... in Kiryat Eqron, 45% of the population voted for Likud with another 14% voting for Kulanu.  But just down the street from Kiryat Eqron, 32% of voters in the town of Mazkeret Batya chose the Zionist Camp.  

As in any country, the results show that Israel is very divided geographically.  It is beyond the scope of this short blog to discuss the various socioeconomic factors for each area, but there are obviously a wide range of significant differences between the various geographic locations and their populations.

How Many Israelis Does it Take to Win a Knesset Seat?

Official Israeli election results show that 72.3% of eligible voters voted.  All "eligible voters" are automatically registered.  So whereas in some countries, the percentage of voters is reported as the percentage of registered voters who voted, that is not an issue in Israel.  There were 5,878,000 eligible voters in Israel.  4,253,000 of them cast ballots.  43,800 voters spoiled their ballots.

This means that each Knesset seat was worth 33,482 votes.  However, with a 3.5% threshold, a party needed 136,808 votes to make it in to the Knesset.

In case you were wondering, the Green Leaf party picked up 38,264 votes.  Under the old Israeli rules in which the threshold was 1%, Israel would have elected one Green Leaf party member - who could have sat in the Knesset and put forward bills (probably rolled up) sponsoring the legalization of cannabis.  Unfortunately for those voters, it does not look like Israel is about to become the Netherlands anytime soon.  That being said, I am quite sure that there are many places across the country where finding access to cannabis is not extremely difficult.  Worst case, Israelis can take advantage of the El Al seat sale and fly to Amsterdam or they can go a bit further and visit Colorado or Washington State for some drug tourism...

Quickest Revoked Resignation

Meretz chair Zehava Galon resigned on Wednesday after it was reported that her party had only won 4 seats.  After some absentee ballots were counted, Meretz increased its presence to 5 seats.  Galon decided to retract her resignation and stay on with the party.  She noted that many of the absentee ballots were cast by soldiers and she would not want to let Israeli soldiers down after receiving their support.  Continuing to earn an MK salary may also be a factor but she didn't mention that.

Quickest Orwellian Retraction of a Campaign Statement

As the election campaigning was drawing to a conclusion and Netanyahu was worried about the possibility of losing, he decided to try and shore up his right wing base by announcing the he was retracting his support for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.  I'm reasonably sure that this was what he said...and it was picked up everywhere as a "game changer."  Maybe we were all hallucinating?  (Thinking about the Green Leaf party winning a seat...)

After the election, U.S. President Obama promptly suggested that if Israel would not support a two state solution - the U.S. might end its policy of blocking U.N. resolutions that impose a two state solution.

Surprise, surprise - Prime Minister Netanyahu promptly announced on NBC that he was in favour of a "peaceful, two state solution" and he had not really said what was attributed to him (or something like that) - or had not really meant what he had said...  Okay well, we know now that Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot be confused with Horton ("I said what I meant and I meant what I said...a politician is faithful...100%...) (See Dr. Seuss if you missed the reference...).  Naftali Bennett on the other hand, insisted that he would not negotiate to give up even one centimetre of land.

Now this, of course, all raises several interesting questions.

For one thing, given that Netanyahu used this statement to shore up his base and siphon votes from the more right wing Bayit Hayehudi party, how is it that his voters will accept this prompt about face?  More importantly, which members of his right wing coalition will agree to negotiations for a two state solution after he campaigned by swearing it would not happen under his watch?  Will Bennett also retroactively change his words?  That seems unlikely.

While this Netanyahu about-face is certainly a positive development (albeit a small one) for those in the centre or on the left hoping that somehow there will be a negotiated solution with the Palestinians - it is unclear how Prime Minister Netanyahu could possibly negotiate one unless he assembles a national unity government with the Zionist Camp or includes some centrist or left-leaning parties in his coalition.  I don't see how this can happen given the statements he made while campaigning.   He would face a mutiny in his party.

It is much more likely that there will be another election before Netanyahu takes any real steps towards a peace deal with the Palestinians.

So that is my wrap up for now.  I'll take a break for while on election postings and write again about this issue once some type of coalition starts to take shape.

Big Win for Netanyahu: Some Post Election Thoughts

"Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led his Likud party to a massive and surprising victory on Tuesday.  While pre-election polls had put the Likud in second place with a forecast of 20-21 seats, the party emerged with 30 seats, the largest number of any party and some 25% of Knesset seats.  Netanyahu will still need to add 31 more Knesset members to get to the magic number of 61to form a government.  However, that looks like it will be relatively easy for him this time around as compared to what he faced just after the 2013 elections.  He will have the support of Habayit Hayehudi ("Jewish Home" - Naftali Bennett's party) which was reduced to 8 seats from 13.  He will also have the support of Yisrael Beitenu ("Israel Our Home" - Avigdor Lieberman's party) which won 6 seats.  That brings him to 44.  He will then turn to the ultra-religious and add in Shas (8) and Degel HaTorah (6). With 58 Knesset members and needing only 3 more, he will most likely count on the Kulanu party, led by Moshe Kahlon with its 10 seats to put Likud at 68.  There is a possibility that Yesh Atid (11 seats) will also consider joining but that seems less likely, especially if the government includes Shas and Degel HaTorah.  Even without one of these two parties, the government may be too far to the right for the tastes of the 11 Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) members.

The Zionist coalition finished with 24 seats, 6 behind Likud.  The United Arab List finished with 14 to become the 3rd largest party in the Knesset.  Meretz hung on with 4 and Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad, which had left Shas did not make it into the Knesset.

This is all not very good news for Israelis on the left or even those in the centre.  Effectively, Netanyahu will have accomplished his goal.  He will have exchanged the "left" constituents of his previous government - Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid - for two ultra-religious parties (Shas and Degel HaTorah) and Moshe Kahlon's party.  Kahlon was a former Likud MK himself.  Not that Livni or Lapid were really "leftists" but in the Netanyahu government, they certainly were.


As the election campaign was drawing to a close, Netanyahu sought to shore up his right wing support by renouncing his past statements of support for a Palestinian state. Based on the anticipated constituent members of the government that will most likely be formed, it is hard to see how any negotiations will take place with the Palestinians anytime soon.

If the ultra-religious parties are back in the government, as expected, we can anticipate a rollback of some of the changes that Lapid sought to bring in.  A restoration of funding for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious interests.  A pullback on the effort to put the ultra-religious in the army.  Increased power over religious affairs in the state handed back to the ultra-orthodox.  

It seems to me that we can also anticipate a further deterioration in current U.S.-Israeli relations and EU-Israeli relations.  I'm reluctant to go on with predictions of other developments that we are likely to anticipate but they are daunting.

In looking at these results, we can size up the Israeli electorate as follows.  57 out of the 120 Knesset seats are right wing or religious parties.  21 more are centrists or right-centrists.  14 seats are in the Arab bloc.  That leaves 28 seats for the left.  The results clearly show that the Israeli electorate leans, at this point in time, heavily to the right.

There had been a sense of optimism in central Israel that the left and the centre would fare better.  Even the exit polls that were released at 10 p.m. in Israel suggested that the Likud would be tied with the Zionist Union at 28 for the lead.  But when the votes were actually counted and the results announced, Israelis had shown a clear preference to continue on with Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") as the Prime Minister.

Winners and Losers

Prime Minister Netanyahu was the big winner of the evening with 30 seats, rallying from a polling deficit, a barrage of attacks from the press and a big push by the left to try and remove him from office.  He scored a convincing victory.  If he serves out a full term, he will become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister.

Looking down the list, it is also reasonable to put Moshe Kahlon in the winners group, with his 11 seats.  His party will most likely join the government and will have significant power.  Other winners include Shas, which is also likely to join the government.  The Joint Arab List won a convincing 14 seats.  However, they will sit in opposition and have little impact on the government. Avigdor Lieberman held on to 6 seats and will likely hold a cabinet post. So, on balance, he can also be put in the winners category.

Almost all of the other parties can be put into the "losers" camp.  For Yesh Atid under Lapid, this election meant a reduction in seats from 19 to 11.  Lapid's party is likely to be sitting in the opposition this time around after holding a number of important cabinet posts in the most recent government.  It is hard to paint this as any kind of victory for Lapid.

The Zionist Camp won 24 seats.  While that is a respectable number, the party's goal was to form the government.  That will not happen.  This can only be described as a defeat for that party as well, despite the sugar coating by some of its leaders.

Meretz held on to its status with 4 seats but its leader promptly resigned, early this morning, taking the blame for the party's decline in numbers.  Eli Yishai's splinter party Yachad failed to make the cut off and will not sit in the Knesset.  The election can even be viewed as a defeat for Bennett's (Habayit Hayehudi) party which only won 8 seats.  However, Bennett will play a key role in the new government so it is more of a mixed result for his party.

The 2013 election brought a sense of optimism in some Israeli circles as a government was formed that included Tsipi Livni and Yair Lapid and left out the ultra religious parties. That government made some moves on economic and social issues but approached Palestinian issues through the Naftali Bennett lens.  Now, it is anticipated that the party's "left" will be Moshe Kahlon's party and the party will continue to approach Palestinian issues through a Naftali Bennett lens.  As well, the government will approach many other issues through an Ultra-Orthodox lens.

In the losers category, I suppose I will also have to include my personal election predictions.  I accurately predicted that Yishai would be out and that Meretz would make it in (barely).  My predictions for Yisrael Beitenu, the Arab list, Shas and Degel HaTorah, were all within one.  I was wildly off with the Likud predicting 21- which is 9 less than the 30 that they won.  I overestimated the Zionist Camp (27-24), Yesh Atid (16-11) and Bayit Yehudi (13-8).  Conversely, I underestimated Kahlon (7-10).  On the whole, it looks like a chunk of centrist votes went to Kahlon instead of Lapid - and a chunk of right wing votes went to Likud instead of Bayit Yehudi. 

Conclusion 

What can be concluded? The left and the centre are far from close to forming a government in Israel at the present time.  The electorate prefers a right wing government and has voted heavily in favour of putting one in place.

Israel is surrounded by hostile, unstable regimes.  The threat of war with Hezbollah on Israel's northern border looms large as does the possibility that the Syrian civil war will spill into a conflict that engages Israel.  Egypt is a powder keg and Israel is constantly on high alert at its southern border.  All three of these realities would be unlikely to change irrespective of the type of leadership that Israel had in place.

With respect to the Palestinians, many Israelis fear that the danger of a Hamas takeover in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would make a two state solution suicidal for Israel at the present time.  Together with all of this, pre-election opinion polls showed that Netanyahu was perceived as the best leader for Israel.  Zionist Camp leader Herzog did not project strength or confidence.  On the other hand, Netanyahu was perceived as a strong, forceful, qualified political and military leader.  For many Israelis, that is the type of leader Israel needs to face the unique range of existential threats that it must constantly address.

One can only up that the day will come when Israelis feel less threatened existentially and confident enough to try a different approach.  These elections clearly demonstrate that this is not yet the case.

I guess for now we will have to go with this line from our daily prayers:

עושה שלום במרומיו, הוא יעשה שלום עלינו ועל כל ישראל, ואמרו אמן