Israeli Election Results - Exit Polls

The first exit polls have been announced from the various Israeli TV stations.  Here they are:

Likud 31                    Right/Right-Centre
Yeish Atid 19            Left/Left-Centre
Labour 17                  Left
Shas 12                      Ultra-Religious
Bayit Yehudi - 12      Religious/Right
Meretz 7                     Left
Hatenuah 7                 Left-Centre
Yehadut HaTorah 6    Ultra-Religious
Hadash 4                     Arab/Left
Raam-Taal 3               Arab/Left
Balad 2                        Arab/Left
 
This estimate puts the "right wing" and religious parties at 61...and the centre, left and Arab parties at 59...very interesting...

No votes for the ultra-right "Otzma L'Yisrael," the Green Leaf party, the Pirate party - or, suprisingly, Kadimah - which was once up to 28 seats.  Many other parties were disappointed and did not obtain enough votes to win a seat in the Knesset.

These are only exit poll results and could still change somewhat when actual results are reported.  

Right now, it seems fair to say that the big winners include Yeish Atid (a new centrist party that has won an estimated 19 seats), Bayit Yehudi (a right wing/religious party that has won an estimated 12 seats and Meretz - a left wing party  that is up to 6 or 7).  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been reduced to an estimated 31 seats (with the Yisrael Beitenu party) but will still, almost certainly, be the Prime Minister.

The big losers appear to be Kadimah (a centrist party that appears to have been reduced to 0 and eliminated from the Knesset), Hatenuah (Tsipi's Livni's centrist party - at 7) and Labour (Historically one of Israel's strongest parties, now at an estimated 17 and in third place).

If these results hold up, Prime Minister Netanyahu would be in a position to put together a razor-thin, right wing/religious government that had a bare majority of 2 seats - 61-59.  Most commentators feel that this is unlikely.

Alternatively, Prime Minister Netanyahu could put together a much more centrist coalition including Yeish Atid and possibly HaTenuah.  This will be challenging since the Prime Minister will have to balance very conflicting demands from right wing and religious parties with the demands for change from centrist parties.  Yeish Atid leader Yair Lapid has insisted throughout the campaign that he will only join the government if Prime Minister Netanyahu makes significant concessions.  Lapid's most significant demands include equal military conscription or national service for every Israeli citizen (something that the 17 ultra-religious Knesset members will staunchly oppose), wholesale changes to education and housing (also opposed by the ultra-religious) and meaningful efforts to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians (which the right wing and ultra-religious parties will oppose).  If Lapid joins a coalition without significant movement on these issues, he will lose credibility and support.

The final, actual results could be very significant, particularly if they change the right wing-left wing balance that is currently projected at 61-59 for the right.

Stay tuned...

Israel Election Day Jan 22, 2013

Polling Station Sign

Israeli election day is finally here - my first opportunity to vote in an Israeli election.  There are many choices - more than 30 parties, of which 13-16 are expected to win seats.  There are more than 5,600,000 eligible voters.  As of 5 p.m. this afternoon, estimates are that the voter turnout is approximately 5% higher than in the last national election, although polls will still remain open in most areas until 10 p.m. and some people may have simply voted earlier this election.  To win a seat in the 120 seat Knesset, a party needs 2% of the total votes.  With an expected voter turnout of approximately 80%, that would translate into a total of 4,480,000 voters.  Parties will get one seat for each 89,600 votes, approximately.

Party List and Abbreviations

We decided to head over the local polling station at about 3 p.m., figuring that this might be an "off-time."  Our polling station was at a local middle school, which was using three rooms as three different polling stations.  At the polling station, there is a list posted of all of the eligible parties and a short letter combination as the symbol for each party.  

At our polling station, we had a line up of about 20 people waiting to vote.  Each station allows only one person into the room at a time and there is only one ballot box. So we had to wait for a total of about 40 minutes until we were able to vote.  In order to vote, you are required to present appropriate photo ID - a driver's licence, valid passport or national I.D. card ("te'udat zeut") proving that your current address matches the polling station and, of course, that you are eligible to vote.  Israelis must be in Israel, physically, to vote with a few limited exceptions.  Unlike the U.S., you cannot generally vote as an "absentee voter."

View Inside Ballot Box

The voting system itself, to someone who is not used to this system, seems to be a bit confusing.  Inside the ballot box, there are piles of paper in compartments representing each of the different parties.  Each paper has the name of a different party written on it - or at least the 2 or 3 letter abbreviation for the party.  Voters pick the piece of paper with the party for whom they are voting and place it in the envelope.  They seal the envelope and then bring it over to the four polling station supervisors and place it in the ballot box in front of the witnesses.  The whole process seems to me to be unnecessarily complicated.  I would have thought that there should be a pre-printed list with the thirty or so parties, clearly named, and an opportunity for people to place an "X" next to whichever party they choose.  Nevertheless, this has apparently been the system for years and there is always some inertia to these processes. 

I just can't figure out why the parties should all be abbreviated into a letter or two, which bear no relation to the party name.  This just seems to add an unnecessary layer of confusion.  The party name should be first and foremost in large, clearly legible letters.  If it must be abbreviated, it should be a simple abbrevation of the party's actual name - for example, the first two letters.  Instead, the one or two letter abbreviation that is used is completely unrelated to the name of the party.  While I had narrowed down the list of which party would be getting my vote to two or three parties, I had checked in advance which two or three letter abbreviations they were using. 

So I made my decision and placed the sealed envelope into the ballot box. The next step is to wait for the results, which will begin rolling in at about 10 p.m. Israel time. 

Meanwhile, Israeli T.V. is reporting that Israelis are greatly enjoying election day.  It is a national holiday.  Shopping malls are open and have apparently been quite full with many election day specials taking place.  The beaches have also been quite crowded as it has been a beautiful, sunny day.   Many others have been travelling to national parks, barbecuing outdoors and spending time with family and friends.  Closing everything on Election Day is a big expense for the Israeli economy but it creates an atmosphere of a very special event.  It will be interesting to see whether there is anything special about the results.

Israeli Election 2013: One Day to Go

Israeli Ballot Box

It is Monday morning here in Israel which means that there is only one day to go until Israel's national election.  The allegations and mud slinging have intensified as has the political activity.  However, after an expensive and hard fought campaign, it appears likely that the next Israeli government will be very similar to the incumbent leadership.

I have put together a few different thoughts about some aspects of the upcoming elections.



The Israeli Electoral System and the Calls for Reform
 
As I discussed in my blog on the Israeli elections Israeli Elections last week, Israel is a parliamentary democracy with a 120 seat legislative assembly (the "Knesset").  There are no ridings or electoral districts.  Instead, Israel uses a closed-list, proportional representation system.  Any party which obtains at least 2% of the popular vote wins seats in the Knesset.  The system is therefore very democratic since a wide range of voices are represented.  The downside, of course, is that small, extremist parties can make exorbitant demands as the cost of joining and supporting a coaltion government.  The largest Israeli parties, historically, Labour and Likud, have been wary of making changes to the system since they have themselves relied on the smaller parties to form majority governments.  Historically, this has meant tremendous power for religious parties, which have demanded key ministerial portfolios in exchange for joining coalition governments.  Even where there have been "unity" governments made of Knesset members from Labour and Likud, the unity governments have not been prepared to tamper with the system.  It seems to me that it would make eminent sense to raise the threshhold from 2% to 5%.  This would create a tilt towards the larger parties but it would also provide increased stability while still leaving Israel with a very vibrant democratic system.  Only Tsipi Livni's party, "The Movement" and Yair Lapid's party, "There is a Future", seem to be calling, seriously, for this type of change.  While Likud has also indicated that it would prefer a system that favours the larger parties (namely themselves), they have shown very little inclination over the course of their mandate to make any actual changes.  There is little reason to expect that this coming election will bring about any major change to the political system.

Some Election Quirks

There are some fascinating aspects to an Israeli election that I have grouped under the heading "election quirks." 

Surplus Vote Agreements
 
Israel has a system of "Surplus Vote Agreements."  This allows two parties to make an agreement whereby they can share any extra votes they have with one other party.  These agreements are declared and published in advance of the election.  After the election, the total number of electoral votes are collected and divided into 120.  This becomes the required number of votes that a party needs for each Knesset seat.  A party with a Surplus vote Agreement with another party can either give or take any extra votes to the party with whom it has made the advance deal.  These surplus votes therefore do not simply go back into the general pool of votes to be shared proportionately among the remaining other parties.  Almost all of the main parties that are expected to win seats have declared these agreements and announced which party they will pair up with -  Likud with Habayit Hayehudi (the Jewish Home), Labour with Yeish Atid (there is a Future), Hatenuah (the Movement) with Meretz - and so on.  This does not mean these parties have necessarily agreed to any kind of post-election coalition - only that they have agreed to share "surplus" votes with each other.

Restricted Advertising, Campaigning and Poll Result Circulation

Television advertising in Israeli is highly regulated for political parties during an election campaign.  A recent New York Times article looked at this issue in some detail.  Parties are limited to seven minutes air time each on each of the three different main national networks.  As well, they each get two minutes of airtime for each seat they hold in the Knesset.  As a result, the Israeli public finds itself with much less of a bombardment of negative ad campaigns than one might see in a U.S. or Canadian national election.  While there are certainly Facebook campaigns, text and email campaigns and slogan-touting billboards all over the country, there is a different feel to the type of campaigning than one might see elsewhere.

Israeli law also prohibits disseminating poll results in the final few days before an election campaign.  Further, political parties are barred from campaigning after 7 p.m. the day before the election.  Israeli also has in place various campaign financing rules.

While all of these rules represent restrictions on freedom of expression that might not pass constitutional muster in Canada or the U.S., these types of laws are seen as having the effect of levelling the playing field somewhat.  It is a welcome change to see a campaign that is not simply fought on the basis of repetitive 30-second negative campaign sound bites.

Election Day - A Statutory Holiday

Schools are all closed on Tuesday January 22, 2013, Election Day, in Israel.  As well, many businesses are closed and workers in many types of establishments are paid double time for working that day.  In Canada, election laws generally provide for a certain minimum number of consecutive hours that employees must off to vote.  While people should certainly be given enough time to vote, it is probably an exaggeration to make the whole day into a national holiday. 

However, voter turnout in Israeli elections has averaged between 70 and 75% of registered votes in the past 4 elections.  By way of contrast, in Canada, the voter turn out rates since 2000 have been between 60 and 65%, according to Elections Canada.  The rate has also been less than 60% in the United States over the past number of elections.  So perhaps an Israeli style Election Day holiday would help improve the voter turn-out rate in other countries even if it seems like expensive overkill?

Summary Comments

It does appear fairly clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be the Prime Minister and will form the next Israeli government.  However, this is not a sign, as some are claiming, that Israeli politics are shifting to the right.  Certainly the "Jewish Home" party - "Habayit Hayehudi" is anticipated to pick up a much larger number of seats than its predecessor party had in the previous election.  It could get as many as 14 to17 seats.  However, many of these seats may well come at the expense of the Likud-Yisrael Beitenu coaltion.  Likud and its current partner Yisrael Beitenu held 42 seats following the 2009 election.  Some polls are predicting that they will now only win 32-35 seats.  These seats might move over to Habayit Hayehudi but that will not necessarily have a significant impact on party policies.

After the last election, the Labour Party held 13 seats, Kadima 28 and Meretz 3 for a total of 44.  These left and left-centre seats are likely to be redistributed amoung Labour (15-17), HaTenuah (6-9), Yeish Atid (8-12), Meretz (3-6) and Kadimah (2-4).  The total could be 34-41 or it may even be as high as 44.  The left and left-centre block may win the same number of seats overall - even though it may be differently distributed.  The real issue will be whether some or most of this bloc has the ability to negotiate successfully with Prime Minister Netanyahu and enter a coalition government in exchange for some genuine concessions.  This will all depend on the relative strength of this bloc cumulatively as opposed to  the strength of the right wing and religious voting blocs.

The various party leaders have been jockeying for negotiating positions by staking out the concessions they will be seeking as terms of joining a coalition.  Some, like Labour leader Sheli Yacomovitch, have stated that they will not join a Netanyahu led coalition under any circumstances.  Others have expressed a willingness to join.  Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett has stated that he wants to be the third hand on the steering wheel while Prime Minister Netanyahu is driving...Understandably Prime Minister Netanyahu responded by noting that a car being driven by two drivers simultaneously could crash and flip over.  Yeish Atid leader Yair Lapid has suggested that he would join a Netanyahu-led coalition but only in exchange for meaningful policy concessions.

Suffice it to say that the weeks and even months following election day in Israel will be as interesting as the election itself as the various parties clamour to put together a stable and endurable coalition government that can lead Israel for the next four years, while maximizing the benefits that the members of the coalition governments will receive for themselves and their followers.

Rami Kleinstein Zappa Jerusalem Jan 18, 2013

I wrote a detailed review of a Rami Kleinstein concert at the Zappa Club in Jerusalem on November 6, 2011. Last night, January 18, 2013, we went back to Zappa to see him again and I'm not sure I have much to add.  The concert was simply excellent, once again!

This picture was taken from the front row.  If you arrive early enough at Zappa, you have your choice of seats.  We were seated in the first row, right next to the stage.  One of two young women sitting next to us got up and danced with Rami on stage.

The show was about two hours long and it was energetic, musically interesting, and, overall, quite entertaining.  The menu at Zappa has undergone some changes and probably wasn't quite as good as the last time we were here.  But the venue is tremendous. The sound is excellent and the atmosphere is just pefect for a concert.  And the Jerusalem location is Kosher, though the menu is certainly not cheap!  So we had lots to eat and drink and enjoyed a great evening of musical entertainment. 

Zappa has locations in Herzliah, Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv, though only the Jerusalem location is Kosher.  You can join the club for an annual fee, which includes a credit towards a pair of tickets, some food for your first show and a discount on all other concerts.  Even as a member, tickets for these shows can be in the range of 100 to 200 N.I.S. - and the food can easily cost more than that if you eat a full meal at the club.  But the venues are small so you have the opportunity to see an entertainer in a very intimate setting.  Shlomo Artzi recently announced a series of Zappa concerts but apparently he sold them out quite quickly.

We have now seen Rami Kleinstein twice at the Jerusalem location.  I'm sure we would enjoy seeing other performers at the various Zappa locations, though price-wise, these are certainly special evening events.

Rami Kleinstein at Zappa in Jerusalem, Jan 18, 2013

Israeli Elections Humour...Simpsons Poster

For my last blog, I had a look at the various candidates running in the upcoming Israeli Knesset elections (Tuesday January 22, 2013).  I'll provide an update shortly with some of the latest poll results and how that might change things.  For now - I couldn't resist adding this Simpsons' poster that someone put up on Facebook.  I would attribute credit - but I'm not sure who put it together.

For those of you whose Hebrew might be less than fluent, the title of the poster is (roughly) "List of Candidates for the 19th Knesset."

Top row (left to right): Labour party led by Sheli Yacimovitch, Likud-Beitenu, Kadima, led by Shaul Mofaz;
Second row:  The Jewish Home (led by Naftali Bennett), There is a Future (led by Yair Lapid) and Shas;
Third row:  Otzma L'Yisrael (Strength for Israel), the Pensioners' Party and Meretz;
Fourth row: Torah Judaism, the Green Leaf Party, Balaad (Arab Party);
Fifth row: The Movement (led by Tsipi Livni), The Pirates, the Green Party.

The funny thing is that at least 10 or 11 of these are perfect matches...