Another Election Update: Complete Craziness Here - and Other News

With less than one week to go for Prime Minister Netanyahu to form a  government, things are getting completely crazy here politically.  Netanyahu's chances of forming a government seem to be slipping away.  But not without a major struggle.  Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops to try to retain power.

It seems like he has a string of increasingly radical moves lined up - right up until the last minute next week when he will either succeed in forming a government with his final moves (whatever they might be) or one of the other two alternatives will win out - either a new replacement government or a fifth consecutive election.

Last week, Netanyahu started to see that his chances of forming a 61 seat coalition were looking grim.  He is trying to pull together two far right wing parties - Yamina and the Religious Zionist party and mix those parties with two ultra-Orthodox parties - and then have that whole package supported by the 5 seats of an Islamic Fundamentalist Arab party.  The Religious Zionist party has balked at the idea and has held a number of press conferences at which they have spewed anti-Arab rhetoric  and stated that they will not enter a government that is supported in any way, shape or form by any of the  Arab  parties.  Meanwhile, the Arab party, Ra'am, has naturally called on Bibi to reign in the rhetoric of his racist cohorts if he is really hoping to get  Ra'am support.

So Bibi came up with a new plan.  He decided he would call for a two track election system with a separate election for the position of Prime Minister  Obviously, this is an attempt to create a U.S. style President with separate executive powers and to  circumvent  Israel's current system.  As any constitutional student would realize, it doesn't mesh at all with a Parliamentary democracy.  It is a different governing system.  So, essentially, Bibi's position is - "if I can't win - we have to change the system so that I can."  One would have thought that this would be dismissed out  of hand, especially since it was tried and failed in Israel in the past.  But since Bibi only needs 61 votes to  get a proposal like this passed, he is pushing it as hard as he can.

Some of the actual changes that have been proposed are even more ridiculous.  The "Prime Minister" could be elected with only 40% of the vote.  He would then instantly have all of the powers of a sitting Prime Minister rather than an interim one - even if he could not cobble together 61 seats.  Further, under Bibi's plan (as presented by Aryeh Deri, the former fraud convict and current leader of the Ultra-Religious Shas party), the winning Prime Minister would instantly get 12 additional seats in the Knesset as a bonus for winning the 40%.  Taking everything into account, this is essentially a plan that one might see presented by Putin or Erdogan.  The problem is that Bibi only needs a bare majority to pass the plan and the issue is whether he can pay off or horse trade with enough members to get this proposal through.  So far, the leader of Yamina, Naftali Bennett, has said he would not support it but the possibility of Bennett changing his mind cannot be ruled out.

Seeing that his "direct election" plan did  not seem to be working out, Bibi upped the stakes.  Earlier today, he proposed that a Bibi loyalist, Ofir Akunis, be named to be the Justice Minister, a position that has been sitting vacant since the government collapsed (leading to the election).  Contrary to Parliamentary and cabinet procedure, he did not provide advance notice of intention to put forward a candidate.  Contrary to the current coalition deal with the Blue and White party, which is in place until a government is formed, he presented a Likud candidate instead of a Blue and White candidate (as required by the coalition deal).  And contrary to the Supreme Court's stated guidelines, he did not recuse himself from being involved in the appointment of a Justice Minister while he is in the midst of an ongoing trial.  

The Attorney General noted that this was an illegal nomination, an illegal vote and an illegal procedure.  Bibi effectively stated that he didn't care and demanded that a vote be held.  The vote was a tie which meant  that he could not proceed.  In lightning speed, the matter arrived at the Supreme Court  of Israel by the evening and will be heard  in greater detail tomorrow and perhaps even shown on live TV.  The Supreme Court does not want to wade into political decisions but Bibi's actions, by all counts, are a clear attack on the rule of law.  Not that he or his party are strangers to this type of attack.  After the last election, one of Bibi's henchmen, Yuli Edelstein, locked up the Knesset to avoid a vote which would have replaced the speaker of the house.  Even then, the Supreme Court was reluctant to interfere.  Some commentators have suggested that this is all part of a plan by Bibi to get the Supreme Court to rule against him so that he can run a populist campaign against the Supreme Court in the next election.  Does that sound familiar to anyone across the ocean? *Late Addendum - added at 1 p.m.  Israel time on April 28, 2021 - Netanyahu has now agreed to back off and allow Blue and White to continue to hold the Justice Minister position - his announcement came just three hours before the Supreme Court was scheduled to being the hearing.

Given the manner in which Bibi has been escalating his tactics, it is hard to predict what he  might try between now and May  4, 2021.  This week, he offered  to allow either Gideon Saar (leader of the New Hope Party and one of the most virulent anti-Bibi Knesset members) or Naftali Bennett (leader of Yamina) to go first in a two-year coalition deal.  His condition is that he would stay in the  Prime Minister's house and be called the "alternate Prime Minister" while some else  "officially" fills the role.  We don't know what else he has requested as part of these offers but his demands are bound to be significant.  Neither Bennett nor Saar have rejected the proposals outright but even if Bennett were to agree, Netanyahu could still be short of the 61 that he needs.

So all in all, it is fair to say that things are extremely volatile, unpredictable and, definitely, new and unique, even for Israeli politics.  That being said, it seems likely that things will go in one of three directions by May 4th.  If Bibi can come up with the right mix of promises, threats, payoffs, carrots and sticks, he might still form a government by the deadline.  I don't think we can rule it out yet.  It seems that he will need to convince Gideon  Saar or some of his New Hope party members to bend and join Netanyahu.  That would cause Bennett to join as well and would create a government.  But Saar has sworn up and down, over and  over, that  he wouldn't join Bibi.  So it will take quite a lot.  I think this is still in the 40% range, perhaps now a bit less.

On the other hand, Bennett, Saar and Lapid are actively negotiating to try and form an alternate "unity government" made  up of parties across the political spectrum.   They have many challenges, which is inevitable when one tries to combine such a disparate range of political philosophies.  From the far left, egalitarian, anti-nationalist Meretz party to the far right, extremely nationalist, religious Yamina party, held together by centrist Lapid of the Yesh Atid party.  And  this coalition might only have 57 seats unless they can recruit an Arab party or an ultra religious party.  It looks like a tall order to get to 61.  I'm still not convinced that the chance of this group forming a government is higher than 30 to 35%.  

And if you do the math, that leaves us with a 25-30% chance of another election, at least according to this prognosticator.  But we should know by May 4th or  shortly thereafter.  If it is to be a fifth election, it may be in August or September.  Perhaps by then, a greater number of Israelis living abroad will be  able to travel to Israel to participate in the vote.  For the last election, ballot stations were actually set up in the  Ben Gurion airport so that Israelis could arrive at the airport and vote before heading  off to a  quarantine.

Covid Update

As you probably know, things have been opening up everywhere here based on the use of a vaccination certificate system.  Concert venues, inside and  outside, restaurants, malls, sports events - everything is almost back to normal, for those with Green Certificates, at least.  But is it just a lull?  We are hearing of significant challenges now coming from the "Indian Variant" which may be impervious to the Pfizer  vaccine.  If a variant arrives in Israel that can  beat the vaccine, we may wind up heading back to square one - after a period of ostensible normalcy.  So far, Israel is still pushing ahead with plans to allow for international tourism (for vaccinated tourists only of  course), a resumption of the Birthright  Program and an expansion of flights, outbound and incoming.  But we really can't  say how long this "golden period" will actually last.  Hopefully, in Israel and the rest of the world, the vaccine will help turn things around in a lasting way.

Heat Wave and Upcoming  Holidays

As you might have seen - we reached temperatures of more than 40C last  week - more than 100F and it was only April.  Fortunately, things have cooled off somewhat and the weather is actually quite  nice now.  People are arranging their Lag B'Omer bonfires for Thursday night and planning their all night study sessions for the holiday of Shavuot which is 17 days after Lag Ba'Omer.  We are picking out our best Blintz and Cheesecake recipes and figuring out how we will best observe the Chag.  We may have to visit a winery or two between now and then to find some nice White or Rose wines that could best accompany our  anticipated dairy bonanza.

Board  Games

I don't mention it that  often  in this  blog - but as many of you might know, I have a hobby of collecting, teaching and playing a wide range of board games.  One of my future projects (hopefully sooner rather than later) is to design one myself.  These are complex strategy games - "Euro games" as they are often  called that include game categories such as worker  placement, territory control, engine building, and economic decision making.  They are rarely winner  take  all games but are won by the player who has amassed the highest point total.   Given that I have been here for such a long stint, I have found a few reliable partners - who are quickly becoming equally addicted.  Recently we have managed to play three fantastic games - Viticulture (which is all about developing and  running your  own winery), Brass Birmingham (an economic  game  set  in 19th century England) and Barrage (a  worker placement/economic game in which players build dams and try to control water  flow and develop energy).  These are all terrific games - so if anyone is looking for something fun to do when spending extra time at home - these games will all give your brain quite a workout.  Israel has a Facebook group called "Unbored  with Board Games" which has more than 10,000 members - who trade tips about different games, buy and  sell used games and arrange meet ups with each other.  So if you thought  board game playing was now a dead or non-existent past time - I think these numbers strongly suggest otherwise.  Board game playing is especially common among Shabbat observant families since most of these games can be played on a Saturday afternoon without violating any of the rules of Shabbat.  

That's about it for  now - waiting for the political fireworks here in Israel over the next  week or  so and wishing everyone the best of health!

 

Yom Hazikaron / Yom Haatzmaut 2021 - Commemoration and Celebration

The past couple of days have represented Israel's annual emotional roller coaster.  From the depths of sadness to the heights of joy as Israel commemorates Yom Hazikaron (The Day of Remembrance for  Soldiers and  victims of  terror attacks) on one day and then  celebrates Yom Haatzmaut (Israel Independence Day) the next day.

Yom Hazikaron is a very powerful day.  So many people in Israel have been touched by tragedy - the sorrow of having a family member  killed or seriously injured in the course of  serving in the military or the horror of having a family member,  friend or  other acquaintance  who was killed or seriously injured in a terror attack.  This is a small country - so the 23,928 fallen in a country of  only 9 million is a very large number.  

On Erev Yom Hazikaron, there are ceremonies held  across the country.  We normally attend the Ra'anana commemoration but due to Covid-19, spaces were limited  to advance ticket holders only and there was no space left. So we watched three different nationally televised commemorations.  These ceremonies included speeches from high ranking military personnel, politicians, families of the fallen and poets and writers.  Many of Israel's most  well known musical artists perform sombre songs at these events  and torches  of remembrance are lit in honour of the fallen, in each case  with a detailed story of a fallen soldier or victim of a terror attack.  There aren't many dry eyes watching these events.

On the day of Yom Hazikaron, which this year was yesterday April 13, 2021, there are ceremonies at the military cemeteries across the country.  There is a rule that no family of any fallen soldier will be alone on this day.   So soldiers who are currently serving in the army  are assigned to attend these ceremonies across the country to console and support the families.  Our family members have taken part in this  tradition in the past.  At 11 a.m., across Israel, there is a lengthy two minute siren.  Much like on Yom Hashoah, the whole country comes to a standstill.  Everyone  stops in their place and  stands silently.  Throughout the day, radio stations play remembrance themed  music.  TV stations show documentaries about the fallen solders, the victims of terror and the tragic  periods in Israel's history.

As the sun goes down, Yom Hazikaron ends and Israel pivots from  one of the saddest days of the year to one of  the happiest.  It is simply amazing  how  so many people are able to do this so fluidly - but  then again, I suppose that is part of life.  And that is the message of these two days - to take the unspeakably sad - together with the joy - and to see it all  as part  of the complex state that is Israel.

Tonight's official Yom Haatzmaut  celebration was reminiscent of some US 4th of July celebrations - fireworks, a military flyover, marching  bands - and of course some political speeches.  The initial musical performances were mostly by the Israel Military Band.  Some  were quite good.  In between, different prominent Israelis were called up to light torches in honour of Yom Haatzmaut.   Some  of these torch lighting  ceremonies were  particularly poignant. Two  Druze  medical staff  came up to light a torch on behalf of all of the medical workers who have worked so hard over the past  year  helping Israelis to fight Covid-19.   They also proudly represented Israel's Druze community.  Another torch was lit by a woman who had been attacked fiercely by her  husband last  year  and  had only survived due to the timely intervention of a neighbour.  Both women came  up to light a torch on behalf of victims of domestic violence  and to raise awareness of the issue.  Several others lit torches in between the various musical performances with the accompanying story of  each torch lighter. 

After the official national ceremony, different stations broadcast different celebrations.  We recorded two  of them and watched one  live.

One of the highlights of evening was the program run by Idan Raichel, one of Israel's most popular musical performers.  I have written about Raichel previously.  Last year, on Yom Haatzmaut, during the height of Covid-19, he and his band put on an outdoor, physically distanced concert with all of the musicians spread out in a park.  You can watch the 45 minute concert from last year here if the link still works.  We thought it was fantastic.

This Year, Raichel outdid himself.  He held a contest for soldiers from across Israel.  He asked them to send him recordings of themselves singing his songs.  He then picked a bunch of winners and decided to invite them to come join his nationally televised Yom Haatzmaut concert this year.  But to notify each of them - he drove to their bases, with one or two of his band members - and showed up to suprise each of them and invite them personally.  He also invited them to rehearse with him and his band.  He recorded these suprise meetings.  He visited one soldier at an outpost at Israel's southernmost border with Egypt.  He visited another up near the northernmost border.  And others in between.

At the Yom Haatzmaut  event, he showed all of these videos and then performed one song with each of the performers, a mixture of women and men, from different regions in Israel, different  backgrounds and different types of military roles.  It was really quite something.  The parents or other family members and friends of the soldiers were in attendance - and after each peformance Raichel asked them what they thought of the performance.  He also asked the guest performers to say a few words about the experience.  All of the singers and  their family members were simply overwhelmed.  

Ultimately, Raichel said he would pick one or more  - to work with to release an original song that the selected performer writes and performs, with Raichel's help.  Raichel himself was so supportive of all of these  soldiers, so interested  in their life stories, so self-deprecating and simply - throughout the evening  - someone who projected such a sense of decency, respect and love.  

In the end, he selected one of the soldiers, much to the disappointment of all of the others who were hoping to fulfill a dream.  The winner and his mother were ecstatic.  The whole event was  moving, emotional and musically fantastic.  

After this show, there will be other musical performances throughout the evening  on tv, on web sites, and live across the country.  In fact, in Ra'anana, one  of the performances, aimed at the younger crowd starts at 1:30 a.m.  I don't think we will be attending that one.  People will be hosting parties into the wee hours, setting off fireworks and  generally celebrating this 73rd birthday of the state in many different ways.

Tomorrow the annual national  bible contest will be televised -  for participants from Israel and across the world.  There will also be an air show, a rave party at Tel-Aviv's Yarkon park, street parties all day across the country and other festivities everywhere.  Israelis will head to the beaches  and the national parks in the expected mid-20s heat - and there will be barbecues everywhere (our place included).  The chick peas are soaking overnight for the homemade humus.

Being in Israel for these special days is really a great privilege - right up there with being here for the Jewish holydays - Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Sukkot and others.  There is a really powerful mix of remembrance, loss, determination and resolution - that imbues both Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah and Yom Hazikaron and then the contrasting happiness of celebrating Yom Haatzmaut.  This year there is a sense of cautious optimism that has added to the joy.  Even though Israel remains mired in political quicksand without a new government and facing the prospect of yet another election, there is a feeling that Covid-19 is being defeated.  

I hope that the rest of the world will soon feel this same level of optimism in the fight against Covid-19 everywhere.  Wishing everyone a Chag Sameach and the best of health.