Two Tracks of Craziness

Israel, like much of the rest of the world is facing an ever-growing and severe spread of the Coronavirus.  The Israeli government has taken several increasingly aggressive steps to slow the spread of the virus, the most recent of which came into effect last night.  At the same time, the country continues to face a political crisis which has not yet been resolved.  No government has been formed and the country is currently running on an interim government and could well wind up with a fourth round of elections.  Either of these issues would normally be enough to occupy media coverage twenty-four hours a day on its own.  With constant reporting about both issues, along with news from many other parts of the world dealing with Coronavirus, things are very stressful here.

As of the writing of this blog, Israel has more than 200 confirmed cases of Coronavirus.  Fortunately, there have not yet been any fatalities, though there are a few patients in serious condition. 

Last week, Israel began instituting restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of the virus.  Within days, things went from a restriction on no more than 1,000 people at a gathering - to a maximum of 10 people.  By the end of last week, the Israeli government had closed schools, universities, and other large institutions.  Effective this morning, restaurants, recreational establishments, malls, gyms and other establishments had been ordered closed.  Supermarkets, drug stores and private businesses (in other industries) have been left open.  Public transport is still running. Anyone arriving in Israel is required, by force of law, to self-quarantine for 14 days.  But many airlines have suspended service to Tel-Aviv.  I have decided to stay here and work remotely, at least until after Pesach.  The restrictions in Canada and the United States will probably soon catch up to those that have been implemented in Israel.

Israel has not yet gotten to where France and Spain are - effectively instituting martial law - preventing anyone from leaving the house - without a proper reason.  But I believe that will be  following soon, perhaps by the end of the week, perhaps by next week.

This afternoon, we went out for a walk.  Surprisingly, we saw many places open that, seemingly, were not supposed to be. Falafel places, Shawarma places and bakery/cafes.  Restaurants that are only restaurants are either closed or are running take out service/ delivery service only.  But other places seem to be operating, oblivious to the directive.  Not sure what will be open in the coming days.

Many business owners are complaining about the lack of support measures behind these steps along with the disparate application.  For example, a drug store that is inside a mall is now closed whereas one on a main street is open.  Some falafel places and bakeries are open but full service restaurants  are closed.  Many of the people who work in these establishments are very vulnerable financially and may have no support.  Many of the owners are vulnerable as well.  They have rent to pay, lines of credit, tax installments etc., none of which are being frozen.  But all income has come to a halt.  It seems to me that this is only an interim step that will last a few days - until we get to a full closure that looks more like what is going on in Rome, Madrid or Paris.  It is all placing the whole country under tremendous pressure, though that is not very different from many other places around the world. 

The decisions are being made by the current interim government, led by Netanyahu.  Although many experts seem to agree with most of the steps taken by the country to fight the community spread aggressively, there are certainly well-founded concerns about the manner in which these dramatic decisions are being made. 

Netanyahu does not have a majority of Knesset members supporting him.  He has, thus far, only been able to muster 58 supporters - with the opposition holding 62.  The Blue and White party has been willing to support the measures  he has taken thus far - but in the circumstances, they should be an integral part of the decision making. 

The difficulty is that Netanyahu is fighting the spread of the Coronovirus - while fighting a concurrent personal battle to deal with the criminal charges he is facing - and while trying to find three Knesset members to switch sides and support him in building a government.  So it is natural that many Israelis have a reasonable level of suspicion and skepticism about decisions he is making.  At the same time, most recognize the urgency of the situation and are hoping that these measures will slow the spread in Israel and keep the country from getting to the situation that some other countries are now facing.

Last night, Netanyahu announced that the government was in an emergency situation - and that all gatherings of more than 10 people would be barred.  He did not mention his upcoming criminal trial (which was scheduled to start on Tuesday March 17, 2020).  Instead, his key advisors notified the press at about 1:30 a.m. (more than 3 1/2 hours after his main announcement) that a side effect of his various measures would be the delay of the trial by at least two months.

Today, Netanyahu called for an immediate "emergency government" with the Blue and White Party.  He provided his conditions - in the form of two options.  Either a temporary government of six months - with Netanyahu at the helm - or a four year government with a two year rotation for each party - and Netanyahu would go first.  In both cases, he made the proposals as someone who had won the election and held all of the cards.  Mathematically, however, this is not the case.  The Blue and White party is still responding to these proposals.

Today was also the day when all of the Knesset party leaders were supposed to meet with the President (following the recent election) and indicate who they were supporting to put together a government.  Apparently 62 Knesset Members recommended Gantz, which may give Gantz the right to first try and put together a government, albeit one that is reliant on 15 Knesset members from the Joint List (An Arab party which includes  2-3 anti-Zionist communists).  Netanyahu has attacked this type of government wildly and has all but threatened violence to prevent  it.

Weighed against all of this, many feel that Netanyahu has handled the Coronavirus crisis well to this point.  Netanyahu is hoping that if the general public feels that way (and presumably, if his measures prove successful) - he may be able to muster a few more seats and get to 61 for him and his coalition in a 4th election.  This could also allow him to pass legislation that would provide him with immunity for his criminal proceedings.  So I would say that there is a definite and growing sense that Netanyahu is hoping that a fourth election in September or October would allow him a shot a forming a government that has eluded him in the first three election attempts.

At the same time, that is only really relevant if the country can succeed in getting the spread of the virus under control and in limiting casualties.  If things get out of control, all of the talk about the formation of the government will be a much more minor concern.  We can only hope that the measures that have been taken so far and the additional measures that are going to be taken are the proper ones to address this world wide epidemic.  We can also hope that, at some point, the different Knesset members will find a reasonable way to resolve this governmental stalemate.











 

Israeli Elections 2020

The results are in from the 3rd consecutive Israeli election within a span of a year and they are just about final.  More than 99% of the ballots have been counted.  The final result?  No clear winner.

I think it is fair to say that Israel is in the midst of a constitutional crisis.  The country is split down the middle between right and left and the two sides have not been able to compromise and form a government.  Nothing from the most recent election (on Monday March 2, 2020) suggests that this is about to change.

Here are the current results (which are likely to be certified in the coming days):

Likud (Bibi's party):                                                     36 seats (+4)
Blue and White (Led by Benny Gantz):                       33 seats (No change)
Joint List (Arab party):                                                 15 seats (+2)
Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi Party)                             9 seats (No change)
Yehadut HaTorah (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi party:     7 seats (No change)
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman's party) (Right Secular):     7 seats  (-1)
Avoda/Meretz/Gesher (The Left)                                    7 seats (-4)
Yamina (The Right)  (Naftali Bennett)                            6 seats (-1)

I have included in brackets the change for each party over the last election results from September 2019.  Prime Minister Netanyahu ran  with a "right bloc" which included Likud, Shas, Yehadut HaTorah and Yamina.  His bloc wound up with 55 seats in September 2019 and has now increased to 58.  However, a majority in the Israeli Knesset is 61 (out of 120).  Without 61, a government cannot be formed since the "bloc" cannot control the Knesset.

Over the course of the past three elections, including the most recent one, Netanyahu has insisted that his "bloc" will stay together and not be broken up.  In any coalition talks with other parties, he has maintained that any government will include all of these parties.  The difficulty is that all of the remaining parties oppose significant parts of the agenda that these 4 parties are proffering.  Blue and White, Yisrael Beitenu and, AMG are all looking to reduce the power of the ultra-religious, at least to some extent.

The bigger issue has been a key demand made by Netanyahu.  As you may know, he is currently facing three separate, serious criminal indictments.  His trial is due to start in about two weeks, though it may take a year or two until it is completed.  His party has been insisting on two different laws (bills to be passed) as part of any coalition agreement. One law would grant him retroactive immunity from prosecution while holding office.  Some forms of this law would allow him to be prosecuted after leaving office while others would immunize him outright.  The other bill would ensure that the Supreme Court cannot strike down the first law - by allowing the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court.  Both of these bills are acceptable to Netanyahu's bloc partners. But neither bill is acceptable to any other party.

The main reason that a coalition agreement could not be reached after the past two elections was that no  other parties were prepared to accede to Netanyahu's demands for retroactive immunity.  He had to keep going with additional elections until he could get 61 supporters to pass these bills.  It was literally life or death for him politically.  Without immunity, he risks going to prison, if convicted.

On Monday night, after the election, as exit poll results were coming in, Netanyahu claimed that he had won an "enormous victory."  His expectation was that he would be able to reach 61 seats, put together his right wing coalition and legislate away his criminal problems.  For a while, that looked like it might happen.  His supporters were seen dancing, singing songs of victory and celebrating wildly.

But  as the real results dripped in slowly, the picture began to change.  Netanyahu wound up with a bloc of only 58 seats, three short of a majority.

On Tuesday, he sent out all of his key advisors and former ministers to argue on TV and radio appearances that he had won the election, that the Israeli public had made a decision and that he should now be able to form the government.  The problem is that this was premature and inaccurate.  While he had won 3 more seats than the Blue and White party and that gave him a plurality, it was not enough to give him a majority.  58 Knesset members have been elected in support of Netanyahu and his bloc but 62 have been elected to oppose that bloc.  Most people, though not everyone these days, agree that 62 is more than 58.

By Wednesday morning, the opposition parties - sometimes described as centre-left together with the Joint List, were proposing a law that would bar a leader under indictment from serving as Prime Minister.  If they are able to pass this law, Netanyahu would be out of cards to play other than perhaps an appeal to the Israeli Supreme Court to override the law.  (From a legal perspective, there is a reasonable argument that it is an improper law since it would be enacted after Bibi won the election).  It is almost like fighting one retroactive proposal by enacting another one.  Not the strategy I might have chosen, but the opposition seems to believe that this would be the best way to avoid a fourth election.

So Bibi, as he is affectionately called, took to the airwaves for a press conference.  He held a press conference that was nationally televised.  He went through the math as he sees it.  He said that there were 58 votes for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist right."  On the other hand, he argued that there were only 47 for the "Israeli, Jewish, Zionist left." (He included Lieberman).  He  noted that the Arab party had won 15 seats but he marked a big X through that number and said that they effectively did not count.  (See photo above).  Even though these seats represented 15 democratically, legally elected members of the Knesset.

He then said that "we won this election and we are not going to allow anyone to steal it from us."

Very strong words indeed.  Especially coming from someone who has lost - 62-58.

With all of that having taken place, we are now left with trying to figure out what comes next.  I have to say that I really have no idea.

Here are some options:

1.  Netanyahu and the Likud could  convince 3 or more Knesset members to "defect" from their parties and join him to allow him to form a 61+ seat majority.  This seems quite unlikely right now.  It would require some members of the Blue and White party or the AMG to join him.  While there may be some Blue and White party members who are ideologically close to Bibi, I just don't see them moving over at this time.

2.  Netanyahu could negotiate some kind of coalition with Blue and White.  I can't imagine that they would give him the immunity he is seeking and this might involve a rotation of Prime Ministers.  Seems unlikely right now but anything is possible.

3.  A fourth election.  Even though it makes no sense and seems  unlikely to resolve  anything, it may well be a possible outcome.

4.  Netanyahu forced to resign as a result of a left-sponsored bill that bars him from being Prime Minister while under indictment.  This would allow Likud and Blue and White to reach a coalition deal fairly quickly.  It seems to me that this might happen after a fourth election but not necessarily now.

In the meantime, Israel has no real government, only a caretaker government with limited powers and a limited budget.  Many government operations are underfunded and being neglected.  The country needs a government but there is no obvious solution as to how that is about to occur.  Especially given the political deadlock.

The next few weeks will be fascinating politics.  We can only hope that sooner or later Israel will have a stable government.  Unfortunately, it is hard to see how that will take place in the near future.