Showing posts with label Iron Dome. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iron Dome. Show all posts

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Day 5: Operation Pillar of Cloud

It is the fifth day of Israel's Operation "Pillar of Cloud," in Gaza, an operation which the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) undertook to put a stop to the rocket fire that Israeli towns and cities had been absorbing for weeks from Gaza.

Estimates of the number of rockets that have been fired from Gaza vary between 400 and 500.  All of these rockets, sent by Hamas and affiliated organizations, have been aimed at civilians.  Most of these are "Grad" Rockets, with a maximum distance of approximately 40 km.  This puts cities like Ashdod, Ashquelon, Beersheva and Sderot at risk but not Israel's major population centres.  Hamas also has a number of "Fajr 5" rockets, which apparently have a range of up to 75 km.  These rockets could hit cities as far away as Jerusalem, Tel-Aviv and other population centres in the Sharon region.  However, the IDF claims to have eliminated many of the more sophisticated launching platforms for these rockets through its pinpoint air attacks.  As a result, only a small number of Fajr 5 rockets have actually been fired.

Earlier today, a Hamas rocket hit a building in the coastal city of Ashquelon.  Two people were injured and the building suffered significant damage.

IDF Soldier watching Iron Dome Interceptor Deploy
On the Israeli side, one of the major stories of this operation so far has been the "Iron Dome" missile defence system.    Produced by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, the Iron Dome system fires interceptor rockets in incoming missiles and blows them out of the air with an estimated 80% success rate.  Two Fajr 5 missiles, fired at Tel-Aviv, have been stopped by the Iron Dome sytem.  In total, reports have estimated that Israel has shot down between 220 and 250 incoming missiles using this system, out of a total of between 400 and 500 rockets.  Using satellite rader, the Iron Dome system detects where the missiles are headed and makes a decision about whether or not they should be intercepted.  If the incoming missile or rocket is headed to an open space area or into the water, the Iron Dome does not fire.  If the missile is headed towards a population centre or other important target, it deploys.  Without the Iron Dome system in place, Israel would have sustained very significant damage during the first four days of this operation.

Different sources from Gaza have estimated that between 40 and 50 people have been killed in Gaza as a result of the IDF operations, with between 10 and 15 of these characterized as "civilian casualties."  Considering that there are estimates that Israel has carried out more than 1,000 different attacks, there is ample evidence that the IDF is taking significant precautions to minimize if not eliminate civilian casualties.  Despite what some of the world's media might have people believe, this is certainly nothing like the situation in Syria where thousands of civilians have been targeted and killed by the Syrian military. 

That is not to say that this is a very good situation for the people of Gaza to put it mildly.  But it is important to remember that Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005.  The people of Gaza elected a Hamas government, with the avowed goal of destroying Israel.  Rather than invest in infrastucture, economic opportunity and education, the Hamas government has spent an enormous amount of money building up its weapons supplies and has insisted on firing rockets and missiles at Israeli towns, with or without Israeli provocation.  Hamas supporters respond by indicating that Israel has "blockaded" Gaza and turned it into an "open air prison."  While there is some truth to the fact that Israel has tried to control what goes into Gaza, the main concern is, of course a ban on weaponry entering the strip.  Israelis (and everyone else around the world) know full well that Hamas would use any weapons that it had against Israel without any concern about the ramifications.  At the same time, the Muslim Brotherhood government of Egypt has opened the borders with Gaza and Hamas has been able to bring large supplies of more sophisticated arms to Gaza from Egypt and other countries. 

Contrast Gaza with the other Palestinian Authority areas.  Many of these areas have seen an increase in Israeli-Palestinian economic cooperation, signfiicant growth in the Palestinian economy and relatively few military confrontations.  With a large area of beachfront access, monetary contributions from countries around the world and a population in need of economic opportunity, Gaza could make significant progress if it were to devote its attention to economic development rather than ongoing hostility with Israel.

Meanwhile, as far as the current operation is concerned, there is mounting worldwide political pressure on Israel to agree to some sort of cease fire.  Many Israelis are opposed to an early cease fire as are most of Israel's southern residents.  Israel has had many skirmishes with Hamas over the seven years since Israel withdrew from Gaza.  Each time, once there is some sort of cease fire in place, after a few days, or weeks, Hamas soon starts to fire rockets once again at Israeli towns and cities.  The situation becomes untenable for Israeli residents of the towns and cities that are under fire and they are forced to again call on the IDF to respond.  Many Israelis have been calling for the IDF to launch a full scale ground operation and cause much more severe damage to Hamas' ability to continue its attacks against Israel.  However, the cost of this type of operation would be quite high.  Both sides could suffer a large number of casualties and the Israeli government is wary of putting its troops in harm's way if it is not absolutely necessary.

Beyond the concern about the troops, and the possible casualty level in Gaza, there is no assurance that a sustained ground assault would actually improve the political situation.  If the people of Gaza are intent on supporting a Hamas government, which much of the world views as a terrorist organization, there is little chance that Israel will be able to reach a peace deal, even a short or medium term arrangement, any time soon.  Unfortunately, this may mean that Israel will have to conduct this type of operation again, even after a cease fire, once Hamas again begins firing rockets and missiles at Israel.

While the Israeli cabinet on Friday approved of an order for the IDF to call up to 75,000 reserve troops to report for duty, it is unclear whether or not the IDF will actually proceed with an all out ground assault.  Comments from worldwide political leaders seem to suggest that a cease fire of some sort is imminent and Prime Minister Netanyahu is apparently under a great deal of worldwide pressure to agree to terms of a truce.  Israel continues to maintain that any cessation of hostilities arrangement must include an absolute ban on any kind of missile or rocket fire from Gaza.  Without this type of deal in place, it is unlikely that Israel will agree to an early cease fire. 

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Ongoing War with Gaza and Implications for Israel-Iran

Since Friday March 9, 2012, more than 200 rockets have been fired from Gaza to various parts of Israel. These attacks have been aimed at Beer Sheva, Ashdod, Ashkelon and even the more northern city of Gedera. Israel has responded with a number of air raids on Gaza. Many Israelis have been injured in the rocket attacks. There are also estimates that more than 30 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's responding raids, some of whom were civilians.

The latest round of violence erupted after Israel assassinated Zuhair al-Qaissi, the secretary general of the Popular Resistance Committee. Al-Qaissi was linked by Israeli military officials to an August attack from the Sinai that resulted in the deaths of 8 Israelis and injuries to 40 others. Al-Qaissi was reportedly planning another similar attack.

Although the period leading up to this latest round of escalation has been described as a "period of calm," some 50 rockets have been fired at Israel from Gaza over the past two months, during this "truce." It's not very hard to imagine what the United States might do after receiving one or two rockets from Canada or Mexico, let alone 50.

Since the rocket attacks began last Friday, more than 200,000 children were forced to stay home as schools were closed across a large area of the Israeli south. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis missed work and there was significant property damage caused by the rockets.

The damage is generally viewed by Israelis as only a small fraction of what Israel might face if it were involved in an all-out war with Gaza, Lebanon (Hezbollah forces), Iran and potentially even Syria. Nevertheless, the psychological impact has been tremendous, particularly on those families living within range of these attacks. And despite these challenges, a solid majority of Israelis are apparently still supportive of Israeli preemptive action on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel has successfully deployed its Iron Dome anti-missile system to provide defence to these attacks from Gaza. The system has reportedly succeeded at intercepting a large number of rockets though the estimated success rate various widely. The Iron Dome is primarily intended to prevent rocket attacks on civilian areas and has had some success in that regard. Most of the rockets were allegedly fired by Islamic Jihad and some smaller offshoot organizations with public claims from Gaza that Hamas was not involved. One might be forgiven for being skeptical about these claims.

Although Egypt brokered a stated "truce" on Tuesday, rockets attacks have continued with at least 3 rockets fired at Beer Sheva earlier today (Thursday March 15, 2012). Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have denied any responsibility, pointing to smaller "splinter" groups.

Israel's Iron Dome system is not an anti-ballistic missile system. Israel has been working on the Arrow ABM system, which is designed to intercept longer range missiles and rockets but it is not yet fully developed. The upshot is that Israel is likely to face very heavy rocket fire from a variety of geographic sources if hostilities break out with Iran. Such attacks will cause heavy structural and economic damage and may also result in a significant number of Israeli casualties.

The difficult calculation for Israel and its political leadership is weighing this heavy cost against the enormous costs of a potential nuclear attack from Iran. Given the very public statements made by Iranian leader Ahmadinejad calling for Israel's destruction, coupled with Iran's vigorous nuclear weapons program, it may well be too perilous for Israel (and for the rest of the world) to stand by and wait for this attack, even if by so doing, Israel can buy another few years of relative peace.

Israel's experiences in the second Lebanon War in 2006 and its various skirmishes with Gaza since than have suggested that any future war that Israel might face with its hostile neighbours will be markedly more damaging to Israel's civilian population than any of its previous wars. But the reality is that Israel is constantly facing an existential struggle which is only likely to dissipate when a real Arab spring arrives and brings with it widespread peace. Looking at what has been taking place in Syria, Iran, Gaza and even Egypt, the Middle East, unfortunately, is still stuck in the middle of a cold winter.