May 18 2021: Israel-Gaza War Update and Other Updates

Irone Dome System

We are in day 9 of Israel's "Guardian of the Walls" Operation.  It is unclear whether this operation is going to end any time soon - or whether it is going to spread like a brush fire.  There are many different sources for news of these events - and once again, I have to say that I am not about to provide comprehensive news coverage.  For that, I would have to work 24/7 these days - just on publishing blogs.  But I wanted to cover a few things that are making news here.

Gaza Operation

As  you know, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both recognized terrorist groups, have been firing rockets, aimed at civilians, towards Israel since last Sunday.  Fortunately for Israel, there are Iron Dome stations set up around the country which have been able to shoot down a high percentage of these rockets.  But Hamas has fired thousands of them - and quite a number have scored direct hits which have injured and killed civilians.  Two were killed today as a result of a rocket attack.  They were foreign workers from Thailand working in a factory.  These attacks are all aimed at killing civilians  That is the primary purpose of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad rocket fire.

The IDF has responded with a massive aerial bombardment.  It has targeted the Hamas underground tunnels that encircle Gaza and provide sanctuary for Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters.  It has also targeted the homes of Hamas and  Islamic Jihad military leaders and a range of other targets.  Israel's army has made extensive efforts to avoid civilian casualties, including warning residents of attacks in certain places.  But despite those efforts a number of civilians have been killed along with a  much higher number of militants.   I should add that many of those who have been killed in Gaza have been killed by errant Hamas rockets.  Apparently, a sizeable number of the fired rockets don't make it out of the strip and explode or land in Gaza with often catastrophic results.

According to various news reports, Egypt is leading the efforts with Qatar, to negotiate with Hamas and Israel and try to bring about a cease fire.  According to some recent reports, the Egyptians told Hamas that if they were to stop firing rockets, Egypt would take the responsibility of ensuring that Israel  agreed.  Moreover, Netanyahu announced earlier today that we have "attained significant accomplishments," which some have interpreted as indicating that Israel is ready for a cease-fire.  But Hamas apparently refused the request and has continued to fire hundreds of rockets.   They are trying to get a major "achievement" - whether a significant hit on a civilian target, a military target, an economic target or some other type of "gain."  As long as Hamas continues to fire rockets, Israel will continue going after a wide range of  Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza.

Internal Problems

Unlike in the case of some of the past Gaza wars and operations, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have managed to stir widespread sympathy and  participation in the form of rioting within Israel itself.  Last week, there were protests and riots in Lod, Akko, Nazareth, Haifa, all Israelis cities  with sizeable  Arab  populations.  I wrote  about this in an earlier blog.  In response, some extremist Jewish groups - including the Kahanist Religious Zionist party and its members reciprocated with comparable and equally deplorable attacks on Arab Israelis, under the auspices of "protecting" Israelis in the absence of the police.  There have been many arrests but it is unclear how extensive this problem will become.

In the desert - south of Beer Sheva, Bedouins knocked down highway lights and began throwing rocks and shooting at some passing cars.  Some roads were closed and Israel has had to step up security operations in the  South.  These are all considered "internal" problems but they have  stretched and taxed the Israeli police greatly.

North and East

A few rockets have been fired from Israel's northern border - from inside of Lebanon.  Last week, some of these landed in the water.  This week, some landed within Lebanon itself.  As of now, there are no significant signs that this war will expand to include Lebanon.  But the Middle East is somewhat of a tinder box and things could change at any time.

To our east, the Palestinian Authority called for a "Day of Protest" today.  Now, fortunately, this is apparently different from a "Day of Rage."  But nevertheless, there were at least  two incidents where Palestinians in the disputed territories fired live ammunition at Israeli troops.  The IDF fired back, of course.  The Palestinian leader Mahmood Abbas is very weak politically right now.  He has delayed elections in an effort to avoid suffering an embarrassing loss to Hamas and it is unclear that he can keep a lid on these  protests. 

Palestinians in these territories are heavily armed now as a result of various accords with Israel.  If the rioting and unrest spreads to include armed Palestinians in these territories, this could become a  full scale "Intifada" - this time with both sides using extensive live ammunition.  Great efforts are being made by both sides to  keep this from happening, but they will require a fairly early end to this war.

International

Israel tends to be fairly isolated internationally in these situations and has historically relied heavily on the United States, particularly at the UN and the UN security council.  There are only about 15 million Jews in the world and more than 1.8 billion Muslims.  So it is not surprising that Israel does not receive widespread support - irrespective of the specifics of any particular war or operation.  

To this point, most Israelis have been pleased to see that President Biden has held his ground in the face of significant international pressure - as well as significant pressure from many members of his own Democratic party.   These "progressive Democrats" and  some others have urged Biden to put  all of the pressure on Israel to stop the  operation but without corresponding calls for Hamas to end its rocket fire - or even a  recognition that the Hamas rocket fire was the source of this war in the first place.

For Israel, some of the statements from a handful of vocal Democrats, led by Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and others, have been outright frightening - and would lead to a significant U.S.-Israel rift if such sentiments were to become  policy.  On the other hand, Nancy Pelosi and others have bolstered President  Biden and refrained from taking the bait and turning  support for  Israel into a partisan issue.   

Ultimately, I certainly believe that the U.S. should  make meaningful efforts to bring this operation to a close and prevent it from spreading more broadly.  But that does not mean creating an equivalency between the actions of Hamas and the actions of Israel - or placing all of the onus squarely on Israel to end this war.  To this point, it seems to me that President  Biden has been dealing with this appropriately.  I would imagine that his actions now will also play into his future credibility with Israel and others in negotiating more long term solutions, which are desparately needed.  

At the same time, it seems clear that President Biden will only be able to hold out so long and that within a few days, the U.S. will begin to exert greater pressure on both sides to end the fighting  if the Egyptian efforts are not successful.  Prime Minister Netanyahu also seems to have begun to recognize that it is time to push harder for a cease fire even if, politically, he might prefer to stretch things out a bit longer.

A Bit of Israeli Politics

Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, has 15 days left to try and  form a government. But his putative partner, Naftali Bennett has officially abandoned him - and his potential Arab coalition partners have become politically averse to joining this type of coalition with corresponding aversion among some of Lapid's intended partners.  As a result, it seems highly unlikely that there will be a "Change Coalition" forming a new government in Israel over the next two weeks.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has circulated rumours that he is now negotiating with Gideon Saar, had of the New Hope Party (who was firmly in Lapid's camp before the war  started) and even with Benny Gantz, head of the Blue and White party.  It is,  of course, unclear whether there is any truth to these rumours or whether they are Bibi's way of trying to "divide and conquer" the  opposition.  Ultimately, a fifth consecutive election in Israel is becoming an increasingly likely event.  There may also be some chance that Prime Minister Netanyahu will succeed after all in forming an "all right wing government"  at the last minute to avoid another election.

Eurovision

Tonight is the semi-finals of the annual super-hokey "Eurovision" song contest. It was cancelled last year as  result of Covid.   Israelis love to watch it and pick the Israeli contestant by  running  a season-long reality show - "Rising Star."  The easy winner in 2019-2020 was the super -talented Eden Alene.  She has a powerful, wide-ranging, yet incredibly precise voice.  The judges were so impressed by  her first appearance in 2019's first episode, that it was instantly clear that she would win - even at the start of the three-month season.  Probably reminiscent of the year in which Kelly Clarkson won American Idol - 2002, I believe.   There too, it was instantly clear that there was a contestant that  no other singer could beat. 

Alene's entry in 2020, was the highly acclaimed "Feker Libi" which included a wide range of musical influences.  Many Israelis thought she had a very good chance of winning the contest.  But alas, Covid arrived and Eurovision 2020 was  one  of its casualties.

Since the 2020 event was cancelled, Alene was given another chance.  But the Israeli production team put together a new song called "Set Me Free."  The song is somewhat less compelling.  Now Ms Alene not only has an inferior song to work with - she is also facing the political fallout of the Gaza war.  Eurovision is a notoriously political event.  Given the events that are currently taking place - it is very unlikely that Alene will have a chance of winning - even though she is incredibly talented.  As cheesy as the contest is, we will probably try to watch some of it to support her but she is facing quite an uphill battle.  Even if she loses, I would predict that she will still become a superstar in Israel and perhaps, internationally as well.

Shavuot

Shavuot has come and gone here in Israel (it is only one day long whereas it is two days long everywhere outside of Israel).  I couldn't pass up on an opportunity to  include a small photo of my promised cheese blintzes which we were able to enjoy  over an outside evening dinner  on Sunday night - even despite the difficulties taking  place across the country.  There are still a few left so if you are planning a visit - just ask and we will save a few.

I think I will end this for  now by noting that I am quite excited, as a distraction to see the Toronto Maple Leafs playing against the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of this year's Stanley Cup playoffs (that's Ice Hockey in case you weren't sure).  While in Israel, that means watching games that start at 2:30 a.m.  Perhaps I will be in Toronto for some of the games though it doesn't look  like there will be any fans in the stands in Canada any time soon (unlike the U.S. where hockey arenas are being filled up thousands of fans as if the virus had ended).  Usually, the Toronto Maple Leafs find a way to  disappoint their fans.  After all, they have not won a championship since 1967.  I'm not optimistic that this year will be any different but I always enjoy watching hockey playoffs.

Hopefully things will calm down here in Israel very soon - and will stay calm in the rest of the world as well (I have seen some very disturbing reports of demonstrations and  violence aimed at the Jewish community in London and other cities around the world - including Toronto and Montreal).  

Wishing everyone the best of health and hoping to see some of you soon in Toronto - or, of course, here in Israel.

Operation "Guardian of the Walls" - Current Israel-Gaza War and Other Developments

This is a tough post to write.  There are simply so many things unfolding that a comprehensive post would be well beyond the scope of my blog.  Even writing 5-7 columns a day, I probably couldn't keep up with all of the breaking news.  But I wanted to highlight a few things on several different fronts.

Gaza-Israel War

First of all, the war with Gaza, operation "Guardian of the Walls," as it has been named by Israel, or whatever you want to call it, is continuing at a relatively high intensity.  Hamas and the Islamic Jihad are firing rockets at Israel, hundreds a day, and Israel is responding with drone and missile strikes as well as air raids.  Israel has been relying heavily on its Iron Dome defence system to intercept the Hamas rockets.  But the system is not infallible and a certain percentage of rockets are able to get through.  Some of these have landed directly on people's homes.  Yesterday a rocket hit a house in Petach Tikvah.  The day before, a bus was hit directly in Holon.  7 Israelis have been killed and quite a number have been injured from these rockets and their debris.

In response, Israel has targeted senior Hamas and  Islamic Jihad militants.  According to several reports yesterday, more than 10 members of the Hamas senior leadership were killed in one air strike.  Israel has continued to carry out a variety of strategies for fighting Hamas though, for obvious reasons, much of this information is not being publicized.  

Looking purely at the Israel-Gaza conflict, it is possible, perhaps even likely, that some form of cease fire will be reached within a week, if not sooner.  But  as with previous cease fire deals, it is unclear how long any such deal will last.  It is likely to be viewed by Hamas as an opportunity to restock its weapons arsenal.  Without any efforts from either side at reaching some sort of longer term political arrangement, this conflict seems destined to go on endlessly.  

And even though the pattern has been that these disputes have generally come to a cease fire within a relatively short time  frame, it is possible that this particular fight will continue to escalate more broadly.  According to some reports, Israel was preparing to send ground troops into Gaza.  Hard to say whether these are tactical reports - intended to bring about better cease fire conditions - or whether Israel has determined that this is a necessary step in this conflict.  I guess  we are going to find out in the coming days.

Domestic Strife

Since  this current Israel-Gaza conflict began, Israel has seen something that it has not witnessed since 2000 - extensive violence between Israeli-Arabs and Israeli-Jews.  

Violence has flared up in several Israeli cities and towns that have significant Arab populations - in Lod, Acre (Akko), Nazareth and Haifa as well as others.  In Lod, mobs of Arab hoodlums have firebombed two synagogues and been involved in lootings, attacks on civilians and several shootings.  In Akko, a number of Jewish owned business were burned down, an Israeli Jew was pulled out of his car and severely beaten and there have been several other incidents of violence by angry Arabs.

Violence has also flared up against Israeli Arabs in several towns - including Bat Yam, Lod, Haifa and other places.  In Bat Yam,  an Israeli Arab driver was dragged out of his car and severely beaten by a mob of Jewish hoodlums.  In Lod and some other cities, mobs of angry Israelis shouted "death to Arabs" and attacked several Arab civilians.

Although the police have become involved in some of these cases, and have made some arrests, they are apparently outmanned, overwhelmed and incapable of  controlling the  situation.  

Extremist groups on both sides are using social media to create mass gatherings which are quickly becoming violent.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is talking about depolying the army in some cities to try and restore peace - but the  army is not generally intended, equipped or trained to perform policing work.  Soldiers have no power to arrest anyone - and they are not trained for these types of disputes.

Events of the past few days have really opened up a long festering wound between Arabs and Jews in Israel - though it is only a minority on each side causing all of these disturbances.  But the fallout could be devastating for Arab-Jewish relations in Israel and for civility in general.

Political Ramifactions

As I have discussed recently, the potential "Change Coalition" that was about to sign a coalition deal - was a government that was going to depend, at least initially, on some Arab Knesset members.  With the outbreak of this latest Gaza War (Entitled Operation "Protect The Walls" by Israel), the Arab Israeli Knesset members announced that they could not support any Israeli government.  As violence began to break out in Israel between Jews and Arabs - the leader of Yamina, Naftali Bennettt announced that he could no longer support the "Change Coalition."  Instead he has begun negotiating with Netanyahu once more.  It may well be that the violent attacks by Israeli Arabs on Jewish sites in Lod, Akko, Haifa and other places - will shift the Israeli voting population to the right.  Netanyahu is pushing for a fifth consecutive election - and perhaps hoping that as a result of this round of violence, he and his right wing partners will gain a few more seats and be able to form the "fully right wing" government that they have been dreaming about.  This would be a government filled with Knesset members who wish to increase the conflict level with the Palestinians and take a variety of provocotive steps including limiting the power of the Israeli Supreme Court to intervene in human rights cases, adding more nationlistic language to the Israeli constitution, sending military troops to Arab populated towns in Israel to "bring calm" and taking a variety of other actions.  

There is no done deal yet but certainly the events of the, past few days seem to be putting Netanyahu  in a much stronger position to retain his leadership position, likely bolstered by a hard-right coalition.  With talk from Netanyahu and his coalition partners and supporters about increasing the military presence in civilian areas, limiting the powers of the Supreme Court, and other steps that they are considering, we are, unfortunately,  inching closer to Turkey in terms of leadership style and system. It will be a signficant blow to Israel's democracy. Hopefully something will prevent or change this trajectory.

Yair Lapid, leader of the Change Coalition, and the Knesset member currently holding the "mandate" has 19 days left to try and form a government.  After Bennett's announcement yesterday that Bennett would be supporting Netanyahu, Lapid took to the airwaves and to social media urging calm, calling on Arabs and Jews to take a  step back from internal conflict, pushing the notion that it is precisely in challenging times that people have to be creative and come up with workable long term, stable, political solutions.  It  was an impassioned address but one that may have fallen on deaf ears.  Given the events of the past few days, Lapid's chances of ousting Netanyahu and forming a Change Coalition government have become ever smaller.  

Escalation  

Last  night, three rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Israel.   Hezbollah was fairly quick to state that this was an "accident" or it wasn't them but it is unclear whether that was a taste of things to come or a small mistep.  Needless to stay, things will become completely crazy if Hezbollah becomes  involved in this war and begins firing rockets at  Israel.  Hezbollah has huge storage facilities with a massive supply of long range rockets.  Hezbollah is supported by Syria, Iran and, indirectly by China, which recently signed extensive long terms deals to  support Iran.  Hopefully, the people of  Lebanon will be able to prevent any kind of Hezbollah escalation or involvement  in this conflict, but it is a serious concern.

As I write this, Israel has been massing tanks at the Gaza border.  It is quite possible that the IDF will enter Gaza with ground troops, tanks, special forces and other units.  As discussed earlier, it is unclear whether this will happen but if it does, it could signify a very large  escalation of this operation.

When you combine all of this, I think it is fair to say that there is a feeling that the situation, overall, has  deteriorated quite  significantly in many different ways over the past two or three days.  I am really not sure where this is all headed but if a cease fire is not arranged shortly, this could well become a large scale, extensive military operation that will result in significant loss of life on both sides.  

Wishing everyone best of health, peace and security and hoping that things improve dramatically soon.