Showing posts with label Eisenkot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eisenkot. Show all posts

Friday, July 24, 2026

On the Edge of Another Major War with Iran? And Tisha B'Av 5786 (2026)

I am writing this on Friday afternoon, June 24, 2026.  According to many different indicators, there is a strong likelihood that Trump will make a decision to have U.S. forces launch a massive attack on Iran at any time.

Although no one knows for sure what will take place and Trump could be bluffing to try and get the Iranians to agree to some kind of deal - reports from the Israeli press have indicated that the Iranians have rejected any kind of deal proposed by the U.S. or the mediators at this point in time - and the gap between the U.S. and Iran is simply too wide to close.

In Israel, various news commentators have been speculating that an attack could come at any time, with many almost predicting that it will be tonight or tomorrow sometime.  

Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel if the U.S. crosses certain Iranian "red lines."  Just as it is unclear whether Trump will actually commence broad attacks against Iran, it is equally unclear whether Iran will decide to bring Israel into the conflict now.  However, if Iran does attack Israel, it is almost certain that Israel will respond with significant force.

Another possibility is that Trump will ask Israel to participate in some type of massive attack that he would like to carry out against Iran.  Israel would almost certainly say yes to any such request by Trump.  However, I think it is more likely that Trump would like to show that the U.S. can carry out these attacks on its own without Israel and will only involve Israel if Iran draws Israel into the conflict.

One report indicated that Israeli hospitals across the country have been told to be on their highest alert levels and to be prepared to move all operations underground on short notice. Some Israeli officials denied that this order was given.

I guess we will find out soon enough. We are scheduled to leave Israel on July 28th (completely unrelated to anything going on) for a few weeks.  I guess we will see soon enough if we are actually able to leave.  In short, we have had to prepare the "safe room" in our home and we are definitely facing the possibility of a stressful period of time.

Tisha B'Av 5786  תשפ"ו

We had a very meaningful Tisha B'Av.  We joined the Masorti Israel movement (affiliated with the Conservative Jewish movement) for a program along with more than 100 participants from across Israel.  We travelled from Ra'anana to Jerusalem and began the program with a tour of the tunnels behind the Kotel (the Western Wall).  The available tours are constantly changing as different sections open up and new finds are discovered or developed.

If you have never been to these tunnels, I would say that it is one of the most interesting things to do in Israel.  The tours give you access to a picture of how the two great Temples were when they were active in Jerusalem and the vibrancy of Jewish life at the time centred around these Temples.

The tours also provide a great deal of information about what happened to Jerusalem after the destruction of the second Temple in the year 70 CE.  There is even a full model of the Temple area that can be changed with the press of a button to show how it looked at different periods of time.  It helped that we had a terrific tour guide who was knowledgeable, energetic and engaging.  (No, it wasn't our family member, though I suppose it could have been...)

After the tunnel tours, we had tefillah (Minhah) and then a pre-fast dinner of "deconstructed Sabich" - which is basically hard boiled eggs, fried eggplant, salad, humus, tehina and "amba" (pickled mango sauce - slightly spicy). The deconstructed means that you can decide if you want to make it in a pita (the way it is usually served) or if you would rather go with the low carb option and skip the pita.  Sabich is sometimes called the "poor person's falafel" in Israel - since it is often about half the cost of a falafel and is a less substantial meal.

Our meal was followed by Maariv, the reading of Eichah (the book of Lamentations), and a lecture from Professor Doron Bar, author of a book about the history of the Western Wall. These events were interspersed with the group singing and reading some modern Kinot and  singing songs about Jerusalem, as the sun set and the stars emerged, overlooking the golden beauty of Jerusalem.  We were joined in time for the start of Eichah by several hundred Ramah seminar students, some of  whom read parts of Eichah.  Our evening concluded with three panelists discussing different visions of unity and challenges to modern day Israel.  Overall, it was a terrific program.

Tisha B'Av is a fast day in Israel (no food or water for about 24.5 hours).  At the same time, work and travel are permitted unlike other "Holy Days" - like Yom Kippur for example.  Everything is closed on Erev Tisha B'Av in most parts of Israel - but many shops, including many restaurants, actually open up on Tisha B'Av during the day.  

In any case, the fast ended at about 8:30 p.m. (I went with bagels, cream cheese and lox - one of our usual fast-break options).  And we are now ready for Shabbat Nachamu - the Shabbat that is intended to comfort us after Tisha B'Av.

Tehran

We are a bit late in getting to Season 3 of Tehran - we still had not finished watching Season 2 - but recently we had the chance to sit down and watch several episodes - even if that meant keeping really crazy hours.  We thought it was riveting. We still have one episode left - the final episode of season 3 - and we understand that a fourth season is being filmed.  

Tehran is a spy thriller about an Israeli agent, operating in Iran, working to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  At times, it seems somewhat unrealistic, I suppose, but considering what we have heard about Israeli operations, it is probably not too far off from reality.

For us, it was highly compelling and worth seeing. I would say that Season 3 was probably better than season 1 - and a close call with Season 2 as to which was better.  

Once we finish - we will have to start watching the newest season of Fauda (season 5 I think) - so don't spoil anything if you have watched these shows.

Election News

As you know the Israeli election is scheduled for October 27, 2026.

Party slates are still not absolutely finalized and there may still be some surprises.

The news this week was an attack ad that Netanyahu used.  The ad showed Gadi Eisenkot (leader of the Yashar party - right now Likud's strongest opposition) running towards a soldier in a uniform. The ad was generated by AI. At the last minute, the ad shows Eisenkot turning away from the soldier and embracing the Arab party (Ra'am) leader Monsour Abbas.  

One of the big criticisms was that Eisenkot had lost his son in the recent  Gaza war. Many viewers felt that the soldier depicted looked very much like Eisenkot's son and that this ad was therefore very inappropriate.

Likud did not apologize for or withdraw the ad.  However, they published a second version one day later, using a female soldier instead of a male soldier -  but with the same content.

Public reaction to the ad was apparently very swift and polls taken after the release of the ad, showed Netanyahu's party losing between 1 and 2 seats to Eisenkot (though that amount may be statistically insignificant).

In any case, still lots of time until the election, lots of ads to be released - and lots of animosity I suspect  - despite the message of Tisha B'Av that urges the people of Israel to find a way to avoid "baseless hatred."

I am sure that I will have lots more to say about the coming elections over the coming three month period.  

I wish everyone a shabbat shalom - and look forward to seeing many of you in Toronto or elsewhere in the coming weeks.

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Government's Legislative Term Ends in Israel - Let the Cheering for Messi Begin!

Messi at the Kotel in 2013
The government of Israel officially concluded its last parliamentary session on Friday July 17, 2026 - and it can only be described as a debacle.  The governing coalition spent its last two weeks of legislative session pushing through, at lightning speed, several pieces of outrageous legislation - in an effort to shore up ultra-orthodox support for the coming election.

The first bill was the Bill to enshrine "Torah Study"  as a fundamental value in Israel's basic law.  Now of course, I have nothing against Torah Study, nor do most Israelis, many of whom engage in Torah study in all different ways.  But the goal here, was to define Torah Study as type of right - that allows a person to use it to reject other obligations or laws.  The Ultra-Orthodox in Israel plan to use the law, essentially - to say "we can't serve in the army because we are engaging in "Torah Study" and that is a supreme right of ours that trumps other obligations and duties. Of  course, it is also unclear what constitutes "Torah Study" and who might be able to use this - and for what purposes.  But this was the "easy" bill - the first one.

Next came the bill to suspend all sanctions against ultra-Orthodox draft evaders.  Not "all draft evaders" - just "Ultra Orthodox draft evaders" -  until November 30, 2026, one month  after the election, presumably giving Netanyahu and his coalition the time to win the election and enact a permanent draft evasion bill.  Based on an urgent injunction brought by Yesh Atid, the Supreme Court of Israel immediately froze this bill, as an interim measure, given that it was likely to be found unconstitutional in a full Supreme Court hearing.  The bill is simply indefensible other than as an effort by Netanyahu to buy the support of the ultra-religious parties  in the coming election.  

The third bill was the bill to weaken the powers of the office of the Attorney General, who is generally appointed to be an independent watchdog of the government.  The bill gives the government the legal authority to disregard the advice and recommendations of the AG.  Until now, these opinions had been treated as binding on the Executive Branch.  In other words, if the government obtains the opinion of the AG about a potential law - and the AG advises that it is likely to be illegal, Israeli law has normally required the government to follow that advice.  Under the current  legislation, the Government can  simply ignore the AG. It is noteworthy - that the sitting AG has made certain recommendations with respect to Netanyahu's current criminal charges.  With this bill, the government could potentially ignore those recommendations and cut a deal with Netanyahu to let him off the hook from his criminal charges.

The fourth bill was the bill to grant the government extensive additional control over the Israeli broadcasting industry - including certain content control.  The government would have the power to appoint the "oversight committee." This is a dangerous step towards state control over a large chunk of the media. The Supreme Court today (Sunday July 19, 2026) froze parts of this bill on an interim basis pending a full hearing.

The Israeli government also enacted a bill extending mandatory military service from 30 to 32 months for Israelis who report to duty under Israel's mandatory draft laws, even while making it easier for the ultra-orthodox to avoid the draft altogether.

The government also passed a bill strengthening the monopoly of the ultra-orthodox over Kashrut - which was intended to undo legislation enacted by the previous Bennett government.  This would affect organizations like Tzohar -  an Orthodox institution which has been trying to demonopolize Kashrut in Israel - even while continuing to adhere to all recognized standards of Kashrut. The difference is that the monopolization -  gives the  ultra-orthodox and their political parties - the right to appoint Mashgichim (Kashrut supervisors) and exert financial control over the Kashrut industry.  

On Friday, the government passed a bill allowing for gender segregated classes in Israel's state funded universities. This was their final bill - the "piece de resistance."  

Aside from these measures, the government also hurried through spending bills to be able to immediately transfer hundreds of millions of shekels - primarily to the  ultra-orthodox and to new developments in Judea and  Samaria (the disputed territories).  At the same time, the government sent a bill to assist wounded military veterans "to a committee for study" and turned down other measures proposed by opposition.

Certainly, the ultra-orthodox coalition partners are happy with these laws but I can't believe that even most Likud supporters are prepared to support this agenda.  In fact, the early polls are already suggesting that Likud is losing polling momentum as a result of passing these laws.  This legislative blitz may well wind up costing Netanyahu the election - if enough people are sufficiently upset about these laws.

Polls suggest that the opposition party led by Gadi Eisenkot - Yashar - has made significant inroads and may well be in a position to form a government.  Of course, there are still three months of campaigning remaining and these are only polling results.

The Israeli Supreme Court has already frozen some of this legislation on an interim basis and may well strike down more  of these enactments but the message has been sent by Netanyahu loud and clear - if he and his coalition partners are elected again, this country will begin to look more and more like Turkiye - or perhaps even Iran.  

Netanyahu and his coalition partners are also running against the Israeli Supreme Court.  In the past, Netanyahu campaigned on the promise that the Supreme Court was untouchable and he would always support and abide by its judgments as the ultimate arbiter of law in Israel.  Since his criminal trial began, he has switched tactics and has campaigned actively using the argument that Supreme Court has too much power, is part of the deep state, is too liberal etc.,  This government was the first in Israel's history to snub the chief justice of the Supreme Court and to state openly that it would refuse to abide by decisions of the Court.  If this coalition is able to form another government, the Israeli Supreme Court will face new and unprecedented challenges.

Israel is at a major crossroads.  After what can probably be described as one of the most, if not the most, extreme and anti-egalitarian weeks of legislation in Israel's 78 years history, it is clear that there is a great urgency for the anti-Bibi side  of the electorate to get out, mobilize votes and try to convince other Israelis that Israel would be better off as a democratic, more pro-egalitarian state.  Hopefully it is not too late.

Another four years of a government with this type of make up - including ultra-orthodox and right wing extremist politicians would have a disastrous effect on the country - and would almost certainly result in a significant exodus of educated and more liberal voters and perhaps many corporations.

Fortunately, from early polls - that are still three months away from the  election - the anti-government coalition bloc appears to be picking up steam.  If elected, it could have the ability to reverse much of the damage that has been done - and make changes that would benefit all segments of Israeli society.

War Drums

The war between the U.S. and Iran has really heated up over the past few days.  The U.S. has been ramping up its attacks and the Iranians have shown no sign of seeking any kind of deal (at least not publicly). It almost seems like the U.S. put the war on a low burner until the FIFA World Cup could end (it ends today) and then go full throttle to try and wring some concessions out of Iran.

Iran has responded by attacking a wide range of countries around it - including the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and others.  So far, Iran has not attacked Israel in this around, though the country is certainly on high alert.

Netanyahu seems poised and ready to have the Israeli army jump in and begin another round with Iran.  He has already floated the idea that because of the security situation, he may have to cancel the Likud Primaries (the Likud party uses a primary voting system to determine the ranking of its different candidates in the election.  Since Israel uses a proportionate representation system - parties get one set for approximately each .833 % of the vote (roughly 35-40,000 votes) though there is a minimum  of 3.5% - i.e. a 4 seat minimum).  The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026.

Netanyahu would rather skip these primaries and simply appoint Likud candidates in order which would give him greater control over the party.  He is concerned that some dissonant voices within his party will win high rankings in the primaries and he will have to work with a group of less pliable party members. But Netanyahu has claimed that this could be necessary - because of the security situation with Iran. I note that Netanyahu spent the last two weeks fighting over how many reserved prerogative seats he should be able to appoint in the top 40.  Initially, he was demanding the right to appoint 15 of the top 40 but eventually came to a deal with the party to be able to appoint 8 of the top 30 - with 6 of them in the first 20.  He has not yet announced who will be on his list.

Israelis are also concerned that if Netanyahu can successfully cancel the primaries - he may then move to finding a way to "postpone" the coming elections scheduled for October 27, 2026.  So far, he has not floated anything like that - and I think it is unlikely that he will even try it.  But the prospects of a full on war with Iran - and the security problems that will create for Israel - may well lead to Netanyahu exploring options.

Meanwhile, as the attacks from Iran get closer and closer to Israel (and Jordan, is after all, a neighbour of ours, and is being attacked by Iran), it is become increasingly likely that Israel will be directly involved in this round of war with Iran very soon.

Flying in and Out of Israel

As I have mentioned in just about every recent blog, it is extremely difficult to find decent flights in and out of Israel these days.  For our next flight, we will be flying to Toronto via Lisbon - with a stop on the way  in Athens.  

El Al is the most reliable way to leave Israel currently, but if you haven't booked a flight months in advance the prices are outrageous.

Air France, Aegean, Lot Polish, Emirates are among the foreign carriers flying currently, along with some smaller Israeli carriers like Arkia, Israir, Tus Airways and Blue Bird.  Many of the smaller airlines have baggage restrictions are like flying North American budget airlines. 

One of the issues now is that the U.S. government has asked Israel for permission to use a significant amount of Ben Gurion's capacity for refuelling planes and other aircraft.  Israel has tried offering the U.S. other military airports but the U.S. has been insistent on using Ben Gurion. This has been another reason for the lack of available commercial flights.

As for Air Canada - while it is scheduled to start flying again to Israel on October 25, 2026, this seems unlikely to me.  I certainly would not recommend booking an Air Canada flight between Toronto and  Israel any time soon.

Sports

Of course the only sport to write about on July 19, 2026 is football (soccer) - and the FIFA World  Cup.  In Israel - I think this is probably as big as the Super Bowl - Israelis are all talking about watching parties, bars and pubs are expected to be overflowing across the country and there is a palpable sense of excitement. Football is definitely the most popular spectator sport in Israel - basketball is a distant second.

The vast majority of Israelis (as far as I can tell anecdotally) seem to be cheering for Argentina to beat Spain. One reason is that Israel's relationship with Argentina is so much better than its relationship with Spain. Spain has become one of the world's loudest anti-Israel voices - joined by Ireland, Slovenia, the Netherlands and unfortunately, the current Canadian government. (As well, of course, as many of the Arab countries). By way of contrast, the current Argentinian government, led by President Javier Milei, has been a vocal supporter of Israel. That has not been lost on Israeli football fans.

The other reason - is that Israelis love watching Messi (who doesn't?) and are hoping he can, with a World Cup win, secure his place as the GOAT.  He needs two goals tonight to win the Golden Boot award for most goals in the tournament. That will not be easy against the strong Spanish defence - but even if he does not score any goals - it should be a fun game.

Tisha B'Av

I am planning to be at the Kotel this week on Wednesday night to mark the commemoration of the destruction of Israel's two great temples (the first in 586 bcc, the second in 70 cc). I think it might be the first time I will have been in Jerusalem on Erev Tisha B'Av.  When the kids were younger, we would generally go to Yad Vashem (the Holocaust Memorial Museum) during the day of Tisha B'Av.  We may wind up doing that this year as well.

Many observant Jews mark the nine days leading up to Tisha B'Av as a period of mourning in which they do not eat meat, though they do eat fish.  Generally, Sephardic Jewish and other Jews of eastern origins  - including Yemenite Jews do not observe this period as rigorously - particularly the food  restrictions. Since Israel has a mixture of Jews from countries all over the world, it is definitely less common here to see Kosher restaurants using a no-meat menu. Some restaurants will offer specials, including fish deals.

Even among Jews who do observe, many agree that it is still permissible, even desirable to eat meat on Shabbat.  For many people these days, who tend to minimize meat meals during the week, for health reasons and not religious ones - and eat meat only once or twice a week - the observance of the nine days leading up to Tisha B'av, with the Shabbat exception, may not even change their eating patterns.

Tisha B'Av, like other Jewish fast days, means about 24.5 hours of no food, water or anything else. This year the fast starts at 745 p.m. Wednesday night and ends at 8:17 p.m. on Thursday night. Unlike many other Jewish holydays, observant Jews can travel, do necessary work and use electricity.  But it is still a long day...even if you are fasting in an air conditioned place while it is in the mid-30s outside.

Weather

It is hot in Israel, for sure, and will only get hotter over the next two months.  But this year, it sounds like it has been even hotter in the U.S. and Canada -  with temperatures reportedly reaching 41c in Toronto last week.   I can't remember when Israelis were last told to "stay in the house and not go outside" (other than during a war or an epidemic) but that was apparently the case last week in Toronto.  Here we were able to go for a walk along the beach, near sundown when it had cooled down somewhat. The humidity was a lot lower than the humidity levels during Toronto summers. I guess I will be able to compare shortly.

We take it for granted being only 10-15 minutes' drive from the beach though we really don't wind up going that often.  My office in Toronto is right near an outdoor skating facility - and every year - I say that I will skate more often at lunch - but somehow it just doesn't seem to happen.  Perhaps its the same thing with the beach here.

Wishing everyone peaceful times - and if you are fasting this week - a meaningful fast.