Israel Post Election Analysis March 2021: Results and Predictions

With more than 98% of  ballots counted, the results from the Israeli election of March 23, 2021 are almost final.  I am going to take a stab at analyzing the results and providing an update about the  possible direction things may take in the coming weeks.  I should note that the final results are due to be announced at 10 a.m. tomorrow, Israel time, but most commentators have indicated that few changes are expected.  Apparently the ballots have actually been tabulated but  the "official" statement has not yet been released.

On Wednesday night, Israelis tuned in to the news at 10 p.m. to hear the results of "exit polls" which, in Israel, are usually fairly close to the final results.  Three different TV stations announced their respective projections.  In two out of the three releases, Bibi was projected to have a 61 seat, bare majority - and perhaps, escape with a win.  But over the course of the evening, the projections were adjusted and the real results started coming in.  Bibi's bloc went down to 59 and it has remained there until now.

So here is where we are at.  This is Bibi's "bloc" - the parties that have pledged their allegiance to him and are willing to form a government under his leadership:

Likud (Netanyahu (Bibi)'s party): 30; 
Shas (Ultra Orthodox Sephardi) 9;
United Torah Judaism (Ultra Orthodox Ashkenazi) 7; 
Religious Zionist (Extreme Right Nationalist): 6

As you can see, this adds up to 52.  There are 120 seats in the Knesset so a coaltion must get to 61 to form a government.  Prior to the election, most commentators were predicting that the missing piece to this puzzle would be the "Yamina" ("The Right") party led by Naftali Bennett.  If the Yamina Party were to have received 9 or more, it would have been able to join this coalition and put the Likud over the top to form the government.

Yamina is generally a very right wing party, to the right of Likud.  Their platform includes an overhaul  of the justice system to allow the Knesset to override decisions of the Supreme Court, increased privatization of schools and  healthcare, annexation of the occupied territories  and reduction of taxes.  They  are quite comfortable with the coalition listed above but there are few, if any, other Knesset members willing to join this coalition and put it over 61.

At the same time, the leader of the Yamina party, Bennett, has been touting himself as a potential Prime Minister, able to bring together a wider tent than the Likud.  Yamina was hoping to get between 15 and 20 seats but wound up with 7.  During the campaign, Bennett repeatedly called for a leadership change though he stopped  short of saying that  he would refuse to sit in a Netanyahu government.  Along the way, Bennett stated that he would absolutely not  sit in a government led  by Yesh Atid (Lapid) and he would not join any government with the Arab  Joint List or even with Meretz.  So, he limited himself a great deal but most commentators expected that he would join his natural coalition partners, the right wing bloc if this would lead to the formation of a government.

On the other side of the ledger, here is what we have:

Yesh Atid (Lapid) (Centrist or perhaps centre/left) - 17

Blue and White (Gantz) (Centrist or perhaps centre/right) 8

Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) (Secular, right wing) 7

Labour (Michaeli) (left) 7

New Hope (Saar) (Right leaning, similar to Likud, but anti-Bibi) 6

Meretz (Horowitz) (Far Left, secularist) 6

This all adds up to 51, which is still a long way from the  61 required to form a government.

There are two other parties - the Arab Joint  List (Mostly secular, Arab) with 6 and the Ra'am Party (Religious fundamentalist Arab) (4).  These parties could be enough to join either faction and put that  group over the  required 61  but  that would be very unpopular, politically, in many Israeli circles.

Possible Directions - Can a Government Be Formed?

As many of you know, I am not a huge soccer (football) fan.  One of the reasons is the high likelihood of a tie.  No  sports event, that I can think of, is less satisfying than  watching two teams play to a 0-0 tie and then just leave the field and call it a day.  I much prefer hockey playoffs - where the teams play "sudden death" and keep playing, for as long as it takes, until someone scores.

Unfortunately, here in Israel, we seem stuck in a soccer-like tie with no effective tie-breaker.  After four consecutive elections, we do not have a clear result and we are  unlikely to have a  stable government any time soon.

I don't take too much  joy in stating that my blog predictions from March 11, 2021  were reasonably accurate and pretty much assessed the situation that we now have.  As we sit here now, Bibi and the Likud  party have four options for forming a government but they are all low percentage options from where we sit currently:

1.  Negotiate a deal with anther party or two:  One option for Bibi is to be able to convince one of the right or left centre "anti-Bibi" parties to join his government.  He could  offer all kinds of incentives and financial rewards, cabinet posts etc.,  In particular, he may try to convince the New Hope party under Saar, the Labour party (Michaeli) or the Blue and White party (Gantz) to join his coalition.  These other parties have all insisted that they will not join a Bibi-led government.  Last time around, Gantz gave in and made a deal.  Will he do it again?  It turned out very badly for Gantz.  Will Saar make a deal?  He has stated repeatedly that he won't.  Or perhaps Labour?  Labour could exact a very high  price from Bibi though they would have to compromise their principles.  I don't think we can rule this possibility out entirely.  Bibi is very talented and convincing and he is willing to promise just about anything.  The problem, though, is that the coalition he would be heading would be a very right wing leaning government.  He would really have to try and square a circle.  Overall, I think this is  quite a low percentage option.

2. Convince a few individual Knesset Members to "cross the aisle."

In Bibi's post-election speech on Wednesday night, he suggested that this (or option 1) would be his main plan.  He implored all of those members of the Knesset  who "agree with his agenda and his achievements" to join his coalition.  He will try to convince members of the New Hope Party, the Blue and White  Party or  perhaps even Yesh Atid to join his right wing coalition and put the bloc over 61.  Once again, I don't think we can rule this out entirely but I think it is going to be quite an uphill battle for Bibi.

3.  An Explicit or Tacit Coalition with Ra'am or the Joint List (Arab Parties)

Over the course of the campaign, Bibi knew that there was a chance that this is where things would wind up.  So he began courting one of the two Arab parties - the Islamist Ra'am party - to  consider supporting his coalition in exchange for potential support for some of the things Ra'am might want.  This is incredibly cynical politics by Bibi who has repeatedly undermined the legitimacy of the Arab  parties in previous elections, fearing that they could join the left and overturn his leadership.  If it was just the Likud party, this may have worked.  But the  Likud led bloc has  teamed up with a group of  parties that are much further right than the Likud including the anti-Arab, far right nationalist party the "Religious Zionist Party."  In short, Bibi's coalition partners, or at least some of them, are absolutely opposed to a coalition that is dependent on the support of a radical Islamist Arab party.  So this is still possible but seems unlikely.

4.  Bibi Departure

Right now, this does not seem to be very likely.  However, if Bibi were to resign, his Likud party could almost certainly form a government very quickly with a number of the different  parties on the "anti-Bibi" side of the ledger.  Bibi's criminal  trial is scheduled to resume on April 4, 2021.  If no government is formed and the trial begins to progress, there may well be a situation in which Bibi negotiates some  type of plea-bargain or political deal to end his trial in exchange for his resignation and  immunity.  I think this is a longer range possibility but it may be something that takes place before a fifth election in September or October.

Now on the other side of the ledger, the question is, can the "anti-Bibi" forces form a government or will we have another round of elections.  Here are the options:

1. Lapid-Led Coalition:

This would seem to be the best possibility, in an objective sense.  After all, Yesh Atid has 17 seats, the second highest number after Bibi and leads a group that adds up to 51 without the Joint List or 57 with the Joint List.  The problem here is that Lapid does not seem to have the ability to attract 10 more Knesset members to his  coalition.  One possibility would be a coalition with all 10 Arab Knesset members, including the Joint List and the 4-seat Ra'am party.  I don't think some of the right-Centre bloc  members will agree to this.  In particular, some members of the Blue and White party and some from the New Hope party may not agree.  So this seems unlikely, overall.

2.  Coalition Led by Bennett, Saar or Gantz

This is another possibility that is being  floated by commentators.  The idea is that one of these three leaders would have a better chance of building support among the centre and the centre-right than Lapid.  In particular, one of these three might be able to attract the United Torah Judaism party and/or Shas to join the coalition.   It sounds possible but I'm not convinced  it is going to happen.  Bennett seems  to me to be too far to the right for  the anti-Bibi bloc and this group would cover such a wide spread across the political spectrum that it is hard to imagine that they could all agree on anything.  

3.   Elections Round 5

As of right now, this looks like the most likely scenario.  What  will change between now and round 5?  Bibi will be deep into his trial, Covid-19 will be a thing of the past (in Israel at least) and the public will be even more sick of the idea of being dragged to a fifth  consecutive election.  In short, I do think that the  situation, politically, will become somewhat worse for Bibi if Israel goes to a  fifth election and, at some point, there will be calls for him to resign from within his party.  I think that many in the "anti-Bibi" bloc are banking on this as the most promising scenario.  I should note that, according to the deal that was signed into law during the last government, if no new stable government is formed by November 2021 and things are still up in the air, Gantz will officially become the Prime Minister in November of the interim caretaker government.  For Gantz and the Blue and White party, that might be worth waiting for.

Winners and Losers and Closing Comments:

I thought it might be worthwhile to add a few additional comments about winners and losers from this election and why.

In the winners category, it is fair to say that both Meretz and Labour are big winners  They both bounced up in numbers and had been considered by some forecasters to be on the verge of being ousted from the Knesset.  The left is still alive in Israel.  

The Blue and White party was also a big winner with 8 seats.  Gantz had entered a disastrous deal with Bibi which was criticized in many quarters.   But the Israeli public apparently felt that he had done so in the interest of helping the country out of a political crisis so it rewarded him with 8 seats.  

There were two other big winners.   The Religious Zionist party made it into the Knesset for the first time.  This collection of misogynist, xenophobic, homophobic far-right extremists picked up 6 seats.  Very few of the other parties  are interested in joining a coalition with this motley group.  The very fact that this party will sit in the Knesset is frightening to many inside Israel and worldwide.  

The  other big winner was the Ra'am party, the Arab Islamist party that splintered away from the Joint List.  Ra'am is now trying to use its new-found political clout  to influence the election results and serve as a king maker.  It remains to be seen whether Ra'am will be able to do that but the fact that it is even a possibility is a huge victory for Ra'am.

On the losers side of the ledger, it might be a bit early to say.  The New Hope party was very disappointed with only 6 seats.   Out of the gate, this party was hoping to get 15-20 and offer a real alternative to the Likud party.  That simply did  not happen.

Yamina was also strongly rebuked with only 7 seats.  Bennett was hoping to muster between 15 and 20 and thought he was on track to be a real alternative to Bibi.  He may still be able to work something out in his favour as discussed above, but he can't be happy with only 7 seats.

Bibi has to be disappointed as well.  With a high percentage of Israelis vaccinated and peace deals with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, Bibi thought that the timing of this election, just as everything was  reopening in Israel, would give him the best chance of winning the  election with a bloc of between 62 and 67.  But his bloc  underperformed dramatically and left  him in a very tenuous situation.  

The other  big loser, at this point, is the Israeli public.  We are faced with the very likely prospect of a fifth consecutive election, a caretaker government, no budget (there was no budget in 2020 and there is no budget for 2021) and no likelihood of a positive change  anytime soon.   Moreover, we now have two new extremist parties in the Knesset, the Religious Zionist party and the  Arab Ra'am party, both of which are very problematic for many people.

Despite all of that, we are ready to change our clocks and spring ahead tonight so that we can welcome the imminent arrival of the Pesach holiday.  A large number of Israelis have been vaccinated, Covid-19 is in decline and the vaccine seems to be working.  So despite the political logjam, there is a great deal of positive news in Israel, certainly compared to where things sat one year ago.  

Perhaps, while Israelis across the country are  enjoying  their four coups of wine at the Seder and opening the door for  Eliyahu (Elijah the prophet), a wind of inspiration will arrive and will lead to some unexpectedly pleasant political resolution.  After all, we always conclude the Seder with the statement  "next year in Jerusalem."  Since Jerusalem is Israel's capital  and the home  of the Knesset, maybe what we really mean is "hopefully, by next year, there will be a government in Jerusalem."  Inshallah (if it is a government  supported by Ra'am or the Joint List).

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy Peseach holiday.  Another update will follow  in a week or  two if there are some new developments to report.  

An Election Poem - Israeli Elections March 2021

 

An Israel Election Poem - March 22, 2021

by Avi Herzl (c) March, 2021

‘twas the night before elections and all through the State People were voting to set Bibi’s fate;   The polling stations were cleaned Covid-free, neat and tidy Hoping that the ballots could be counted by Friday.   Israelis were anxious, jabbed, masked but free Would this fourth election bring yet another three?   Lapid, Bennett, Lieberman and Saar All trying to dim Netanyahu’s star; Haredim, Smotrich, Ben Gvir on the right Hoping to help Bibi end his court fight Meretz and Labour keeping barely alive Hoping to make it to four or even five   A flood of overseas voters arriving today Just in time to have their say At Ben Gurion, a place that was closed Wide open now even though our doctors opposed   With Gantz dropping down from eighteen to four When he makes his exit, please shut the door. With Arab Knesset members widely ignored And no politicians universally adored.   So who will unite these disparate voices?  Who will be able to sew up a deal? Between right wing and centre or some lefties too Maybe it will only be you-know-who.   If Bibi can do it, he’ll stay out of jail, He won’t get convicted, it won’t be a fail; The Knesset will open, a law soon will pass An immunity bill will save Bibi’s *ss.   But if the results come and Bibi has lost We will soon face another election cost   Until someone else can take over the reigns And cause the centre to make some big gains   Until that happens, this cycle won’t end We’ll be back to the polls, another verdict to rend. So cast your votes and hope for the best For Israeli democracy, this is a really big test. ReplyForward

LSAT Style Israel Election Puzzle 2021 and Other News

The Israeli election will be held on March 23, 2021.  To get you ready for the election, I have come up with an LSAT  style problem that you could work on starting next week.  This problem may be so complex, depending on actual results, that I am giving you a head start so that you can begin working on it even before the election results are formally announced.

Just a refresher about the problem style.  To get into law school, you have to write the LSAT.   One of the sections is a series of logic questions.  Something like this:

There are 8 people at a table, A through H.  

A hates B and C and would prefer to sit near F.

D will only sit between B and E and or between A and G.

C must sit directly across from E.

F and G must sit at least two seats apart from each other.

The table is a rectangle with 3 seats on each side and 1 on each end.

Which of the following statements is true?  (I'm not going to list all the statements). (Eg. F can sit next to E, G must eat Sushi, B cannot sit across from H, etc., True or False...)

I did reasonably well on the LSAT but that was a few years  ago.  Okay, many years ago...

Here is the more complicated 2021 Israeli election version....

The Israeli Knesset has 120 seats and you need a combination of at least 61 elected Knesset members to form a government.

A.   The Sephardi Ultra-Religious Shas party (Estimated to get 7 or 8) will only agree to a government formed by Likud (Bibi - estimated at 28-32).  They will absolutely not agree to go with Yesh Atid (Lapid)(Estimated at 18-22) or Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) (Estimated at 7-8);

B.  The right wing New Hope party (Saar) (Estimated at between 7 and 9) will absolutely not go with Likud.  However, they will go with just about anyone else other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

C.  The right wing secularist party Yisrael Beitenu will not go with either of the two Ultra-Religious parties, Shas or United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 7-8) but will go with just about any other parties, other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

D.  The centrist Yesh Atid (Lapid) will go with any other parties other than Likud and the far right Religious Zionist Party (Ben-Gvir) (Estimated at 4-5 if they make it in to the Knesset).  

E. The left wing Labour Party (Michaeli) (Estimated at 5-7) and left wing secularist Meretz (Horowitz) (Estimated at 4-5 if they pass) will not go with Likud or the Religious Zionist party.  They will recommend Lapid and they might agree to go with Yamina (Bennett) (Estimated at 9 to 12) or New Hope.

F. The far right wing Yamina party will not go with Meretz or the two Arab parties (estimated at 9 to 13 and 4-5 respectively if the 4-5 group passes).  Yamina will not agree to join a government led by Yesh Atid.  They don't rule out joining a government  led by New Hope or Likud.  They don't rule out "allowing" Yesh Atid to join a government that they  lead.

G. The extreme right wing Religious Zionist Party will recommend Likud and wants to join a Likud-led government.  Bibi says they can be in the government but not get any cabinet posts.  Lapid, Meretz, Labour, and the Arab Parties have ruled out joining a government with the Religious Zionist Party.  The Religious Zionist Party says that it will not join any government that is supported by the Arab Parties.

H. The Ultra-Religious, Ashkenazi, United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 6-8) will recommend Likud.  They might join New Hope, Yamina or even Yesh Atid with the right offer.  

I. The centrist Blue and White Party (Ganz) (estimated at 4-5 if they pass the threshold) say they will not go with Likud again....and that they will recommend Yesh Atid to form the government.  But for the right price, they might change their minds.  Though they swear they  won't.

J.  The Arab parties are unlikely to join any potential coalition formally.  However, they might support a government explicitly or tacitly from the outside or perhaps this could be one of the first times that they actually join the government.  As listed above, some of the parties including Yamina and Religious  Zionists insist that they will not join a government that is in any way reliant on the support of the Arab parties.

Starting on Tuesday night or early Wednesday next week, you can take all of this and try to figure out how to come up with a governing coalition agreement that has at least 61 members.  You have four weeks though you can apply for an extension of three more weeks.  You can offer any combination of cabinet posts, legislative promises, cash for constituents, future government posts and, pretty much any other enticements that  you think of to get the different parties to change their positions on who they are willing to sit with.  Remember, you don't necessarily have to commit  your promises to writing and, even if you do, you certainly don't have to honour them all later.

Ready...Go!.

In other news, an anonymous group installed a statute of Bibi in central Tel-Aviv, looking like Golem from Lord of the Rings....Some have suggested it is a picture of Bibi in a prison cell. 

No one has claimed credit and the statute was removed, fairly quickly.  It is not the first time that protest artists have unveiled statues of Bibi.   I'm not going to list all of the different interpretations that have been suggested of this particular sculpture.

In other news, restaurants across Israel are opened for business, the infection rate is rapidly declining, the rate of people becoming seriously ill is rapidly declining and the vast majority of new cases, including those who have become seriously ill, are people who were not vaccinated.  Things are looking very promising as the vaccine rollout continues.  This may translate to a very optimistic outlook for North America and other parts of the world that are properly administering the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Not sure that these results  will apply to people innoculated with the other available vaccines or in cases where governments administer vaccines without following the proper timelines for doing so.

Pesach is 10 days away.  It is unusual this year with a Saturday night start which makes things that much more difficult for people who observe the holiday.  All of the dishes will need to be changed over one day early on Friday - and bread eating becomes an issue on Friday night and Saturday morning.  Although it is permissible, it gets a bit tricky where the hametz (leavened products) have already been removed from the house and symbolically burned.  I suppose we can eat some bread on the balcony just before the meal....

As you know, Passover is observed differently in Israel - only one Seder instead of two.  As of now, it looks like many people are planning to have large family gatherings, perhaps even "pre-Covid" size  and that plan is likely to be blessed by Bibi himself, along, of course, with his ultra-religious coalition partners, unless infection rates start increasing rapidly between now and next week.

I couldn't resist mentioning that one of the parties running in this election, the Shas party, has been using this lovely slogan "Choose God, Vote for the Shas Party."  They have also been proclaiming that it is a "Mitzvah" (a good deed, according to Jewish law) to vote for Shas.  The accompanying picture for these campaign slogans is one of the  former Rabbis and inspiration for Shas, Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph who died in 2013.  In Israel, we are used to seeing pictures of the deceased Lubavitch Rebbe, Schneerson, with the slogan "Long Live the Messiah," plastered on buses and buildings.  But Shas seems to have outdone the Lubavitch and actually linked Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph to God rather than to a mere messiah.  

I guess we will see soon enough if the outstretched hand of the Lord will ensure that Shas and Bibi are able to form a government together and bless them all with "Get Out of Jail Free" cards so that they don't have to waste valuable time facing ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would indeed be ironic if the Lord were to bless the secular parties instead of the Ultra-Orthodox after such earnest supplications, but I guess His plan will only be revealed in the coming weeks, maybe months.  Either way, it is worth remembering that Pesach is the "Holiday of Freedom,"  which in this case could mean freedom for Bibi or alternatively, freedom for Israel from Bibi.  Israeli voters, observant and non-observant, believers and non-believers, Jewish and non-Jewish, will soon decide.  

I will try to write one or two more  blogs over the next week or so with all of the exciting election news.  Wishing  everyone the best of health and all the best in preparing for Pesach or other upcoming holidays that you may be celebrating.

Pre-Passover Blog - Election Analysis and Vaccine Update

 

This picture was taken earlier this week.  Just after Purim ended, the Matzahs arrived - signalling the pending arrival of Passover (Pesach).  Stores here don't seem to go as crazy as the stores in Toronto with Kosher sections.  They don't cover the shelves with paper or otherwise close off the "Kosher  for Passover " areas hermetically.  But they do carry quite a variety of products.  And just as Pesach arrives, they actually seal off all of the  non-Pesach products so you can't even buy them for 7 days unless you go to an Arab area or a part of Israel in which the stores are willing to take their chances with law enforcement.  It doesn't really affect us since we observe the holiday but some people go out of their way during  Pesach to drive to a nearby Arab down and have some pita and humus.  For the most part, the only "pita" you can get in many parts of Israel during Pesach is made with potato flour (sometimes corn flour for the kitnyot eaters) and it may not be particularly tasty.

This year, as Pesach is about to arrive, we have quite a bit going on in Israel.  As you may know, we have an election scheduled for March 23, 2021.  It will be the fourth election in the past 3 years and, if the polls are to be believed, it is unlikely to result in a stable government.  So we may face a fifth election soon enough.

Election News and Analysis

There are 14 parties runnning for election in the 120-seat Israeli Knesset.  Israel has a proportional election system in which everyone simply votes for the party of their choice.  There are no ridings, districts or other divisions of the country.  The cut-off percentage for making it into the  Knesset is 3.5%, which ensures that a party has 4 seats if it makes it into the Knesset.  If a party that is running winds up with less than that, their votes are simply allocated on a percentage basis to the parties that made it in.

If you would like to follow along with all of the latest polls, this Wikipedia link shows the latest poll results.  According to most of the latest polls, 13 parties are likely to make it into the Knesset.   The question is - what happens the day after the election with such a wide variety of parties?

At  this point in time, Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") and his Likud party are  the clear front-runners with most polls estimating that they will get between 28 and 32 seats.  After that, the fun begins.  To form a government, the party must come up with a coalition of at least 61 seats to have the confidence of the Knesset.  

Bibi can count on the support of both of Israel's ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism.  Both parties have pledged their eternal loyalty to Bibi in exchange for promises to fund yeshivas, support the ultra-religious establishment and ensure that the ultra-religious have key cabinet portfolios.  Shas has been running campaign adds that compare Bibi to the Messiah and claim that a vote for Shas is a vote for the Kadosh Baruch Hu (a vote for God).  These two parties combined are likely to get between 14 and 16 seats.  So that means that Bibi has between 42 and 48, depending on how things go.

After that, things get a bit murky.  There is a new, merged, far-right national religious party running, the Religious Zonist party ("RZ").  They are running close to the cut-off line in most polls but if they make it into the Knesset, they could wind up with 4 or 5 seats and they will happily support a Likud government.

This means that Bibi  could now be at between 42 and 53, depending on whether the RZ party makes it in and the general results.  Here, the options become challenging but not insurmountable.

One party that  is polling at between 10 and 13 seats is the "Yemina" ("Right") party, led by Naftali Bennett (a fellow Ra'anana resident).  (Though he lives on the "other side of the tracks," having made his fortune by selling shares of a successful high-tech company).  Bennett has stated that he would like to replace Bibi and become the Prime Minister.  At the same time, his attacks on Netanyahu have not been particularly vociferous.  His party is self-described as a solid right wing party - nationalist, pro-religious, free-market and in favour of signficant changes to the judicial system in Israel to limit the power of the Israeli Supreme Court. For the most part, his party is a natural ally of the Likud party and is likely to join Likud under the right conditions.

This means that with all of the above, Likud could be at between 52 and 66.  If they are over 61, they will almost certainly form a government under  Netanyahu's leadership.  Such a government would be made up of Likud, Yamina, RZ and the two ultra-religious parties.  It would be one of the most right wing governments in Israel's history.  It is likely  that this  government would agree to pass legislation granting Bibi immunity from his ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would also proceed with various right wing policies dealing with the Palestinians, issues of religion and state, limiting the power  of the courts to conduct judicial review  proceedings and  many other areas.  One commentator stated that this type  of government would put Israel somewhere between Hungary and Turkey - on a path towards fascism but not quite there.  Perhaps that anyalysis might be a bit extreme.  But from my perspective, this type of government would be very frightening.

If this collection of right  wing political parties winds up at between 52 and 59, things get really interesting.  They may be unresolvable and simply lead to another election.  But  again,  the actual numbers will be key.

If this "bloc," including Bennett winds up with 56 or less, they will have a very difficult time forming a  governmment. They would have to convince one of the other left or centre parties to  join the bloc, even though the other  parties have all vowed that they would not do so.  Bibi's options here would include convincing a 4 or 5 seat Blue and White party to join him, the "New Hope Party" which is made up of  former Likud members or, perhaps the Labour party.  Bibi has a formidable knack for working these situations out.  He would  play the different  parties against  each other and do whatever it takes  to get to 61.  Ironically,  he may  even  find a way to rely on a small 4 or 5 seat Arab party "Ra'am" that could make it in to the Knesset.  It is hard to imagine that  such a hard-core, far right government would agree to be beholden to a small anti-Zionist Arab party but Bibi is definitely willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power.

If he is able to do this and  create a coalition but  with parties  other than the "right-wing" parties, he may not be able to get his immunity bill passed.  And the other parties might temper the right wing agenda.   So this may be a slightly better alternative than the first scenario.  

Given the current polls one of these two scenarios seems to be the most likely outcome of the coming election.

The chance of the "anti-Bibi" parties  forming a government looks slim.  The Yesh Atid party is the current leader of this bloc and is running at between 18 and 21 seats.  They could, perhaps, count on the New  Hope party to join them, which could  add 9 to 12.  Add in the Labour party (4-7), the Israel Our Home  Party (7-9).  That all adds up to between 38 and 49.  If the left wing Meretz party passes the threshold with 4 or even 5 seats, that could get this bloc to 53 or 54.  Maybe they could also add in Blue and White, if it passes the threshold, with 4 or 5 seats.  On the low side, all of this only adds up to 46 seats.   On the high side, it adds up to 57.   But some of these parties are competing against  each other for votes, so it is unlikely that the number  would be as high as 57.  

Assuming this  "left-centre bloc"  obtains between 50 and 55, there would be two possible scenarios for forming a government.  One would be to rely on the support of the Arab party - the "Joint List" as supporting the  government from the  outside or as actually joining the government.  It is not clear that all of these bloc members would agree to this arrangement. In particular, the New Hope party may not agree.  

The other possibility would be to convince the Yamina  party to join the group.  As discussed above, they are idealogically much more  comfortable with Bibi.  Bennett seems to feel that he can offer his party's  support  to this bloc in exchange for  an  agreement that  he becomes the Prime Minister.  But negotiations over policies in this scenario would be extremely complicated and in my view, close to impossible.  Alternatively, he could  agree to join  a Lapid-led government in exchange for getting some fairly senior posts for himself and his senior party members.  This all seems unlikely unless Bibi's numbers are low enough to convince Bennett that he has no choice.

Lastly, there is a distinct chance that the split will be close to 50-50  and  no one  will be able to form a government.  We will then face the prospect of several weeks, if not months, of negotaitions, all while Israel is led by another  interim caretaker government.  Unfortunately, this sounds like a distinct possibility.

To add to all of this, the election is just three days before Pesach.  Everything closes down in Israel for  Pesach.  We  may not even have all of the official results of the election by the start of the holiday.  Buckle up - we are in for a very turbulent  period.

Positive News - Vaccine  Effectivenesss

On the positive side, a large percentage of the Israeli population has now been vaccinated with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.  The numbers of newly infected Israelis are dropping rapidly.  More importantly,  the numbers of people  who are  becoming seriously ill are also dropping.  Things have been opening up since Purim (Feb 25, 2021). Even after about two weeks  of many places opening up, the new infection rate has not skyrocketed as some predicted it might.

This past Sunday, Israel opened up restaurants.  Outdoor seating for those who have not been vaccinated  and indoor seating only for those who have a "green pass" to show that they have been jabbed.  Concert halls, sporting events, wedding halls and other event venues are all opening up for those who have a green pass.  I guess we will see over the next few weeks if the vaccine is as effective as it seems to be so far.

Bibi is putting  all of his eggs in the vaccine basket  for this political campaign.  If the rate of infection continues to dwindle, he will try to take credit for getting Israelis vaccinated ahead of most other countries and argue that this is something only he could have done.  Bibi will say that nothing else matters  - his corruption, the economic policies of the past year or two, the ultra-orthodox-secular tensions, and many other difficulties.  Instead, he will focus on two areas - one is the vaccines and the other is the peace-deal breakthroughs that Israel has had with the UAE, Bahrain and  Sudan.  If Israelis buy what Bibi is selling, he  could wind up at 35-40 seats which would allow  him to form a new government quite easily.  So far the polls suggest  that this has not happened but  we still have almost two weeks to go.

I will try to put together at least  one more blog just before the election and perhaps a few afterwards, in between getting ready for Pesach.

Wishing everyone the best of health!