Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts

Friday, July 4, 2025

Israel Update July 4, 2025 - Close to a Deal with Hamas?

I arrived back in Israel last Friday, shortly after President Trump had declared a cease fire between Iran and Israel.  I had to scramble to find a ticket to Israel and wound up flying on Arkia Airlines from Athens.

Getting to and From Israel

In case you are thinking of flying Arkia - my suggestion would be to try to find something else if you can. 

I arrived in Athens via Air Canada and was supposed to have about four hours until my Arkia flight.  Of course there is no baggage transfer agreement so I had to go through Greek immigration (which had a long line-up but moved quickly), pick up my suitcase (which wasn't too bad) and then go check in for the Arkia flight.  Surprisingly, when I got to the Arkia counter, I was offered the chance to get on an earlier flight (almost 3 hours earlier than scheduled).  I asked if I would have enough time (only 45 minutes left according to the flight schedule).  I was assured I would be fine so I took the earlier flight - no extra charge.

From the check-in counter, I had to go through the Greek exit security (Immigration).  The line-up  was unbelievably long and very slow.  Pylons everywhere directing people to walk up and down temporary aisles.  Every few minutes, the authorities would call out an airline and destination and take people out of the line-up into an expedited process.  "Anyone on the Air Canada flight to Toronto? Come with me..."  As I was waiting in line, I noticed that we were only about 30 minutes before departure time, but nobody was calling out Arkia passengers to Tel-Aviv.

I finally got through this line up at 12:55, which was exactly the boarding time for the flight.  But still no call for Arkia passengers.  I still had to go through personal security (the x-ray machines etc.,).  By the time I left the whole area and headed towards the gate - it was about 1:15.  I got to the gate - and no worries - there was a whole line-up of Arkia passengers waiting in line.  Boarding was delayed.  We would still need to take a bus to the plane and then board.

Ultimately, the "earlier" flight that I was able to get on - left 1.5 hours after its revised scheduled time - which was about 4.5 hours after its original scheduled time.  So I actually wound up leaving about half an hour before my originally scheduled time even though I was put on an earlier flight.  Meanwhile the flight that I had been scheduled for originally wound up about two and a half hours late.

For this privilege, I had to spend about $600 - the only way available to get to Israel - during that period of time. (That was just the cost of a one way Arkia ticket from Athens to Tel-Aviv).

Since last week, several airlines have resumed flights to Israel but so far it is mainly the Israeli carriers and a handful of others - Arkia, Israir, Tus Airlines and of course El Al.  Several other airlines have announced that they will be resuming service but at all different dates. From my quick look at the Ben Gurion Arrivals board today - there are flights showing for Air France, Fly Dubai, Delta and some other airlines - though some of these may be code shares with El Al or other airlines.

Over the coming months, it certainly appears that more and more airlines will resume service as long as the security situation continues to improve.  I understand that British Airways, Wizz Air, Air Canada, American Airlines and several others have cancelled their service to Israel until well after September 2025.  If you are planning to come to Israel (let's say for a wedding and a Hina or something like that....), the only airline you are really going to be able to count on for the coming months is El Al, which has demonstrated that it will continue to fly to Israel even in the most difficult conditions - albeit at very exorbitant prices.

It is likely that Arkia, Israir, Tus Airways and Blue Bird airways will also continue to fly - especially from Cyprus or Athens - and maybe  from Rome. These may all be fine as long as you don't mind lengthy delays and sky high baggage charges. After that, some of the airlines that have been willing to bring back their service more quickly than others have been Aegean Airlines (Greece), Fly Dubai, Emirates, Ethiopian Air and Lufthansa.  Several other airlines have scheduled dates for return in August 2025 including United Airlines - but I think it is going to be questionable for now to rely on United.  For Canadians, we may well not see Air Canada resuming its Tel-Aviv service until deep into the fall or even sometime until 2026 but hopefully, with a pending cease fire, Air Canada will resume sooner rather than later.

Gaza War

As of the time I am writing this article, indications are that Hamas is prepared to accept or mostly accept - a cease fire deal for 60 days proposed by President Trump and his negotiators.  I am not going to get into all of the specifics here other than to say that the deal apparently calls for the immediate release of 8 live Israeli hostages by Hamas, followed by the release of 15 bodies.  2 more live Israeli hostages would be released 60 days later, with information provided about the remaining hostages at some point along the way. Estimates are that between 20 and 23 Israeli hostages are still alive and that Hamas is holding a total of approximately 50 hostages in total - including those who are no longer living.

Israel would release hundreds of Hamas prisoners, many of whom are facing lengthy prison sentences for violent terrorist attacks.  Negotiations would continue over the coming 60 days for a settlement of all outstanding issues.  If negotiations fail, hostilities could resume though President Trump is apparently providing "personal assurances" that the war will not restart.  Of course there is nothing more reliable than the word of President Trump - so the Hamas terrorists will certainly take comfort knowing that they have the President's promise.  (You can read this any way you like, depending on your politics).

The war with Hamas will not go down in Israeli history as one of Israel's great victories.  Israel suffered tremendous losses initially - civilian and military losses - and whole villages were wiped out by Hamas even though they will now be rebuilt. While Israel was able to assassinate many Hamas leaders and destroy a significant part of Gaza, Israel was not able to recover the hostages militarily, defeat Hamas or end, definitively, its rule in Gaza.

881 Israeli soldiers have been killed since October 7, 2023 and close to 6,000 have been injured.

The war has also caused a high rate of casualties for Palestinians in Gaza, although the breakdown between military and civilian casualties is difficult to ascertain.  While the Hamas "Gaza Health Ministry" claims that more than 59,600 Palestinians have been killed, there is a great deal of uncertainty when examining any claims made by Hamas.  We do not know how many of these Palestinian casualties were Hamas fighters, though it is likely to be a fairly high number.

It does appear that as the war has progressed, the proportion of Palestinian civilians being killed relative to the total numbers of casualties has been growing -  even though the numbers are likely not as as high as those reported by Hamas.  We also know of several cases where Hamas claimed that Israeli troops opened fire on groups of civilians - and it turned out that the reports were completely false (even after they were reported as true by the BBC, for example).(The BBC later recanted and apologized).

Unquestionably this war has been a disaster for Hamas and for the Palestinians living in Gaza.  But it was also the culmination of several smaller wars started by Hamas over the past several years since Israel disengaged from Gaza in 2005 and Hamas took over the Gaza strip.

Ultimately the only long term solution for the Palestinians in Gaza is going to be having a government committed to resolving issues peacefully with Israel rather than militarily.  Hopefully that train has not left the station.  Continued Hamas rule will only lead to more violent confrontations with Israel.  President Trump's plan of "voluntary relocation" coupled with building a riviera in Gaza might be dismissed as a pipedream (or a war crime) but the geography, topography and location of Gaza does create endless economic possibilities if Gaza were to be run in a collaborative way with Israel.

Other Regional Developments

Israelis were hoping (and continue to hope) for a regime change in Iran and the emergence of a new Iranian government willing to make peace with Israel.  One of Israeli's leading Iranian experts, Benny Sabati, who was born in Iran and lived there for several years before emigrating to Israel, predicts that within 3 to 5 years, Iran will have diplomatic relations with Israel.  He believes that the current Iranian regime will fall during this period of time.  Let's hope that he is correct. A  change of regime in Iran could lead to very significant developments in the Middle East and a future with much more  stability.

President Trump and  Israeli officials are openly talking about trying to add Lebanon and  Syria to the Abraham Accords.  I think the talk about Syria is likely somewhat premature since it will be difficult to resolve the dispute over the Golan Heights.  During President Trump's first term, he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan  Heights (which Israel first captured in the 1967 Six Day War).  Syria is not about to enter into a peace arrangement with Israel that sees Israel continuing to hold the Golan Heights - and Israel is  not about to give up the Golan  Heights to a Jihadi-led, ISIS inspired neighbour.  If Syria gives up its dream of taking back the Golan Heights - at least for now - perhaps a peace deal can be signed but I am not holding my breath on that one.

Now that Assad is out of the picture in Syria and Hezbollah has been weakened, there may be no impediment to Lebanon coming to a deal with Israel.  A stable Lebanon, with the restoration of Beirut as the "Paris of the Middle East" would be a very exciting development - not just for Lebanon and its people but for the whole of the Middle East.  It this were to happen, it would be a direct result of one of the clear victories in Israel's current war - the tremendous weakening of Hezbollah as a regional force, one which controlled and terrorized the people  of Lebanon for many years.

Meanwhile, if Iran sets out to rebuild its nuclear program as quickly as possible, there may be a second round of this war between Iran and Israel, though it may be a year or two down the road.  The alternative for Iran will be a negotiated solution with the United States and Israel - and perhaps the Iranian leadership will start to falter afterwards. In the short term, it  is hard to predict which way this will go.  In the long term, we have to be optimistic that the people of Iran will be able to shed themselves of this horrible dictatorship.

Bibi's Trial

One cannot overestimate the impact of Prime Minister Netanyahu's current criminal trial on all of  these matters. Bibi is currently in the midst of his cross examination, even though last week he asked the court for a two week hiatus to deal with "security affairs."  The court agreed so the cross-examinations will not resume until the week of July 14th, I believe.

We are clearly at the "meat" of the trial - the cross-examination, and Bibi has no interest in having this continue.  It is embarrassing, excruciating and by most analysts' accounts that I have read - unwinnable.  Accordingly, Bibi had his lawyers contact the state prosecutors last week to feel out the prosecution for a plea bargain deal. (His lawyers later issued a denial that they initiated the contacts).

It appears that all of the lawyers, on both sides of this trial, recognize that Netanyahu is highly likely to be  convicted on at least some counts if this ever gets to a verdict. As  I have said previously, I do not believe we will ever see a verdict in this case.

If a conviction,  as part of a verdict or a plea bargain deal, carries with it the designation of "Kahlon" or "moral turpitude," Netanyahu, under Israeli law, would be barred from running for office for several years.  He is not prepared to agree to that.

On the other hand, the state is not prepared to agree to a guilty plea to only more minor offences, especially since the prosecution feels very confident that it can get a conviction with "Kahlon."

One way of trying to change this reality for Bibi has been a campaign to oust the current Attorney General, replace her with someone more "Bibi-friendly" and then negotiate a deal that is more palatable.  Bibi and his Likud party  have been trying to do this - but they face several legal hurdles and conflict of  interest allegations that are making it difficult to replace the AG.

A second alternative, floated by some of Bibi's Likud party members just last week, would be to legislate an end to the trial.  This would be shocking.  Even some Likud members have indicated that they would not support it  And the Israeli Supreme Court would surely strike it down.  I am hopeful that this idea is a non-starter. Netanyahu would need an even more right-wing government to have a chance at pulling this off.

A third idea, and I think one that is most likely at this point, is a negotiated plea-bargain deal combined with a pardon from President Herzog.  This type of  deal might allow Bibi to plead guilty to more serious offences (which would save face for the prosecution) but with a pardon, he would still be able to run again.  The issue is that this could cause somewhat of a crisis for the justice system.  The State would have to demonstrate that it obtained some concessions from Bibi in exchange for the pardon, even though the pardon would be coming from the President rather  than the State.  So Bibi will have to give something to get this type of deal - and I am not really sure what that could be.

There is another alternative.  The current Israeli government might fall, even without a plea bargain deal in place  for Bibi and he may hope that an election will give him a government more willing to help him deal with his criminal challenges. In my view, that is probably a risky strategy.  I think we are more likely to see  a deal in place before an election is called.

I am not going to spend much time dealing with President Trump's tweets calling for Israel to "free Bibi from his trial" as if this were a purely political trial. Fortunately, Israel is not a banana republic (not yet anyways) and none of the actors involved in Bibi's trial (the judges, the prosecutors etc.,) are going to be moved by Trump's calls.  It is more likely that Trump's tweets show a certain desperation on Bibi's part as he tries to enlist the help of Trump to get him out of his legal predicament.  In fact, a number of Israeli commentators speculated that the tweets were written by Bibi himself based on the language used. I am not in a position to comment one way or other but it is an extraordinary level of interference by President Trump into Israel's domestic affairs.  Then again, Bibi himself did everything he could to help the Republicans defeat Obama, Biden and Harris - so interference in domestic political affairs for Bibi and for Trump are par for the course.

Mood in Israel

Israelis are a resilient lot - they have to be to survive in this area of the world.  The 12 day war with Iran was quite frightening.  Many buildings were destroyed. 29 people were killed and more than 3,200 were injured.  But the war was perceived as a major military victory for Israel - perhaps one  of  historic proportions.

The war with Hamas has been going on since October 7, 2023  and over the past few weeks, Israelis have been receiving reports of soldiers dying in battle almost daily.  I believe that the majority of Israelis are hoping that this war with Hamas will end as soon as possible and that things will start to improve.  In other words, I think there is a combination of despair over how things have gone in Gaza but cautious optimism about the future.

Concerts and events have reopened. The airport is gradually increasing its capacity.  I am hopeful that by the end of August (big event time for us...), things will be even better than they are now.

Sports News

I do not have too much to write about sports as the moment.  But I thought I would mention a couple of things quickly.

The Israeli men's national football (soccer) team is trying to qualify for the 2026 world cup.  Israel is in a group with Norway, Estonia, Italy and  Moldova.  On June 6, 2025, Israel beat Estonia for the second time.  Israel will play Moldova on September 5th in Moldova and it will play Italy on September 8, 2025 in Hungary.  It will also play Norway  on October 11, 2025 in Oslo.  Israel lost its first game to Norway but as of now, still has a chance to make it into the 2026 World Cup.  It looks like the road will go through Rome - (Israel will have to beat Italy) but stay tuned.

Israeli TV does not broadcast very many baseball games - but I couldn't resist streaming last night's Blue Jay game.  The Blue Jays swept the New York Yankees in a four game series, featuring a gazillion runs, which moved the Blue Jays into first place in their division.  Even if that is only temporary and even though it is only July, it was still pretty exciting. There may be some very meaningful baseball games for Toronto fans to watch in October.

I think that is about it for now - but I wanted to share these thoughts and wish everyone  a Shabbat Shalom, a happy Fourth of July, a belated Happy Canada Day - and a celebration of all the great events that our family has in July - birthdays, an anniversary etc., Hoping for some good news in the coming days including the return of our  hostages, the cessation of hostilities and maybe even an Israeli election call.



Sunday, June 22, 2025

Israel, Iran, the U.S. and More - June 22, 2015

Fordow Nuclear Plant, Iran
I left Israel on June 9th with the intention of coming to Toronto for about 2 weeks - and getting back to Israel on June 23rd.  Although I wrote, in my blog on May 30th about the possibility of something major happening, including a possible attack on Iran by Israel, I had no idea about the possible scale, timing and implications of the operation that would be carried out.  Now, here we are, less than one day after the U.S. has stepped into the fray with its attacks on three Iranian nuclear sites - and there is much to write about.


Some Comments about the Operation

As I have discussed previously, it is hard to view this as an "attack" or an "aggression" by Israel.  Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been fighting a multi-front war with Iran and its proxies, which was all initiated by Iran.  Iran was responsible for funding and training Hamas and Hezbollah, for arming the Houthis and for supporting other terroristic attacks against Israel worldwide.  All while threatening that it was finally about to destroy Israel.  In context, Israel's operation that started on June 13th, 2025 (6-13 for  those who like to think about this biblically  - being the  total number of mitzvoth according to Jewish tradition) is really a counterattack in response the multi-front war initiated by Iran including Iran's own ballistic missile attacks against Israel.

There was a significant indication that Iran was racing towards rolling out a nuclear bomb - and its stated intention was to use it.  Since Israel's attack, various international  sources have confirmed that this was the case. So the perceived urgency on the part of Israel - was that Iran was getting "too close for comfort" to using a nuclear weapon against Israel - something Israel couldn't wait for. 

The initial stage of this counterattack was carried out by Israel with near perfection, according to most reports and was historic, dramatic and brilliantly effective.

As you know from various reports, more than 30 top Iranian commanders, including the head of the Air Force, the head of the Army and the head of the ballistic missile program, were all killed on the first night of the operation.  This apparently included the use of Mossad agents and AI to lure various Iranian senior officers into a mass gathering, at which they were attacked and killed.  Together with this, Israel established air superiority and has carried out attacks on Iranian military targets, nuclear sites, missile launch sites and other equipment. Many Iranian nuclear scientists have also been killed.

Iranian Response

Since June 13th, Iran's primary response has been to launch ballistic missiles, drones and other missiles at Israel.  According to an article in the Jerusalem Post written moments ago, Iran has launched approximately 500 ballistic missiles at Israel since June 13th and close to 500 drones.  Most of these missiles and almost all of the drones have been intercepted.  However, a significant number have hit Israel.  Most of these missiles have targeted civilian targets.  Among the hardest hit locations have been the Soroka Hospital in Beersheva, the Rambam hospital in Haifa, a mosque (the Al-Jarina Mosque) in Haifa and several residential buildings in Ramat Gan, Bat Yam, Rishon L'Tzion, Nes Ziona and other places.  A large research facility was destroyed at the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, much of which housed advanced cancer research facilities.  More than 25 Israelis have been killed, several hundred people have been injured (it may be over a thousand at this point) and more than 25,000 property damage claims have been filed by Israelis with the Israeli government.  (The Israeli government covers a significant amount of the property damage in these circumstances).  Unlike the Hamas-controlled hospitals in Gaza, the Israeli hospitals did not house any military bases, missiles or army equipment.  Iran's primary attacks have been against civilians.

On Saturday June 21, the Iranians began using additional types of missiles including missiles that they have purchased from North Korea - that can change directions and evade the U.S. THAAD systems and the Israeli anti-ballistic missile systems - at least some of the time.  Some of these missiles have included Iran's "Haj Qasem" missiles which are armed with cluster bombs and  massive warheads. At least two or three of these have landed in Israel and caused massive damage.  The deadliest missile used so far by Iran is the Hwasong 10 from North Korea - named the Khorramshahr by Iran.  This is apparently the missile that hit the Soroka Hospital last week. It carries more than 1,500 kilograms of explosives.

Although Israel has been defending against these missile attacks - with the help of the U.S., Jordan and other regional allies, some of these missiles  have still been getting through and causing quite a bit of  damage.  Israel has been attacking missile storage sites, launching  equipment and other targets, but it is quite likely that Iran still has significant capacity to  cause severe damage with various types of ballistic missiles.

Israel has an alert system in place and usually have 10-13 minutes to get to the nearest bomb shelter (or in-house "safe room") if the missiles are coming from Iran or Yemen, and less time if they are coming from Lebanon.  Since 1991, Israeli buildings are all built with at least one thick-walled concrete room per floor (or per unit) with a heavy metal door - than can withstand shrapnel, hits to other parts of the building and other types of attacks.  These safe rooms cannot withstand direct hits. But the vast  majority of Israelis who have been in safe rooms when their buildings have been hit - or when nearby buildings have been hit -  have suffered only minor injuries.

I should note that Iran has hit other targets, including an Oil Refinery in Haifa and some targets about which details have not been released or published.  Still it is apparent that the vast majority of targets have been civilian.

The U.S Entry

As you may know, according to many different world reports, only the U.S. has the type of bunker busting bombs that would be necessary to  destroy some of the Iranian nuclear facilities - including the Fordow nuclear plant which was 90 metres below ground in central Iran.  Fordow has or had more than 3,000 centrifuges and was being used to enrich uranium to near-bomb grade of close to 90% U-235.

President Trump said in a statement earlier today that the Fordow plant has been "obliterated."  I hope that he is right - but I am not sure that the U.S. has the full damage assessment yet.  Reports are that Iran has already produced approximately 500 kilograms of near weapons-grade uranium and the Iranians claim that this uranium was moved to a secret location before the U.S. attacks.

In my  view, it is more likely than not that this whole operation was jointly planned with the Israelis from the outset.  It seems unlikely to me that Israel would have embarked on an operation against Iran, on this scale, while knowing that it could not destroy the Fordow plant itself.  

President Trump was under intense pressure from different elements of his party. The "hawks," including Lindsay Graham and others were pushing Trump to "seize the moment" and help Israel destroy the nuclear plants.  In their view, it was a necessary step not only to protect Israel - but to protect the whole world - including, in particular, U.S interests in the region, from a nuclear armed Iran.  The evangelical wing, including ambassador Mike Huckabee, were pushing Trump to act because it was "God's will."  Weighed against this, Trump was  getting an earful from "isolationists" and anti-Israeli voices including Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Marjorie Green.  In the end, he sided, as we know with the hawks and evangelicals - and with the Israeli right.  To the extent that one might wonder about a particular angle by considering the voices who are advocating it - it seems that any rational decision maker - when faced with a unified position coming from Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Marjorie Green - might wish to decide exactly the opposite of whatever they are proposing.

In an interesting interview that I heard recently, a former Israel ambassador indicated that even the JOCPA (the nuclear deal with Iran that President Obama had signed) was only going to buy the world some additional time - and still would have permitted Iran to develop a nuclear weapon eventually. In other words, even those on Obama's team recognized that the JOCPA was a very flawed deal.  However, even through Trump ripped up the deal during his first term - Trump did not replace it with anything - nor did he attack Iran militarily.  So he left Iran sailing towards a nuclear bomb, at a much faster clip - and now had to deal with the consequences of that policy. Granted in the intervening period - President Biden took no  discernible action on this file. In short, there is enough blame to go around between Obama, Trump and Biden, but President Trump was now the one to take the courageous decision to destroy these plants (or at least try to).

What Now?

At this point, we are waiting to see how Iran will respond to the U.S. attacks.  Iran sent a barrage of missiles to Israel just hours after the U.S. attacks and some of them landed in Israel, causing significant civilian damage and  injuring many Israelis.

But Iran and its leadership have a choice to make at this point.  If they decide to "go all in" in a war with the U.S. - that is almost certainly going to end in disaster for this Iranian regime.  They have been weakened militarily by Israel's attacks since June 13, 2025 and, according to most reports, they do not seem to be in any position to take on the U.S. Army.  However, since at least some of the leadership are fanatic, suicidal and not necessarily realistic about their prospects, they may decide to go this route and hope that other countries join or assist them (Russia? North Korea? China? others). In my view, this would be a dangerous escalation but is really not likely to end well for Iran.  I would hope that someone will  deliver this prognosis to the Iranian Supreme Leader - but he may not be in any mood to hear it - or to listen to it.  This might draw President Trump and the U.S. into a  war to a greater extent than they had hoped, but I believe that it will be, primarily, a campaign of aerial and missile attacks. Hopefully, the Iranians will not be able to produce and deploy a nuclear weapon during the course of this fight.

A second option is for the Iranians to effectively "surrender" to the U.S. and agree to U.S. terms for a cease fire.  I believe that this is highly unlikely at this point.  It would result in the disintegration of the Iranian regime and it would be humiliating.  It is apparently not a consideration for the current Iranian leadership even if things continue to deteriorate.

A third option would be, what I would call - a hybrid.  It is possible, in my view, that Iran will attack some U.S. bases but to a limited extent - with relatively minimal damage.  This would allow Iran to claim (to the Iranian public and the world) that it had responded to the U.S. attack with "devastating results" and was now ready to negotiate.  If the U.S. were to decide that it could "live with" the damage caused - this might be a way out for both parties.  If the Iranians go too far and actually damage U.S. interests significantly - they will be met by a massive response from the U.S. Nevertheless, I think that this is the most realistic possibility for a quick end to the situation, provided that the Iranians are willing to end their nuclear program and agree to U.S. inspections as part of a deal.

One Israel-based commentator noted earlier today that the Iranians made exactly this type of "least worst" deal when ending the Iran-Iraq war.  They publicly characterized it as drinking a cup of poison to save the regime.  

If Iran does not find a way to negotiate a resolution, the continuation of the current war is likely to devastate Iran and bring about the downfall of the current regime.  The difficulty then becomes figuring out how Iran can govern itself without descending into a chaotic civil war or anarchy.

It is possible that other players will become involved and will threaten the use of nuclear weapons - and try to cause this conflict to spread.  I believe that the chances of this happening are relatively low since I do not believe that Russia or China want to go "all in" at this point - to hope a fanatical Iranian regime - despite the lip service that they might pay to that possibility.

Situation in Israel

As of last night, the Homefront Command in Israel announced the full emergency measures were in place.  No gatherings of more than 30 people, schools and universities closed - and most establishments closed other than those designated as "essential."

The airport was officially closed last night - however, it was reopened (partially today).

For Israelis looking to get back to Israel - and yes, many thousands are, some Israeli airlines have organized "rescue" flights. El Al, Arkia and Israir are asking people to sign up and are prioritizing them according to various factors including  any  humanitarian issues (need for medicine or medical treatment, family situation etc.,.)  In English, these flights are being called "repatriation flights" but in Hebrew the word is "chilutz" which means rescue.  

This means that I could agree to be "rescued" from Canada and  make my way back to Israel by flying from one of several destinations chosen by El Al - including Rome, Larnaca (Cyprus), Athens and some yet to be named U.S. cities - likely New York and Los Angeles.  However, this would, of course, be a one-way flight.  Given that I have certain work commitments in July, including some trials that I am running in Toronto, it would be risky to go back to Israel indefinitely at this time (irrespective of the potential physical danger, which I am less worried about). 

Some Israelis are coming back to Israel by boat. For example, I have some family members who are getting on a cruise ship from Cyprus and taking a 15 hour cruise back to Israel.   That actually sounds like fun - as long as the accompanying navy destroyer can protect the cruise ship from any  incoming missiles.  

It would probably seem surreal to be on a cruise ship, complete with its fine dining restaurants, gambling rooms, swimming pools and perhaps even some entertainment, while on the way back to Israel to face the uncertainty  of nightly missile attacks. 

For those looking to leave Israel, the options are limited.  I read that El Al would now be departing with a maximum of 50 passengers on a range of flights though I am not sure how easy it is to get a seat on these flights.  Some birthright groups and others left Israel on those same cruise ships - to Cyprus - and picked up flights from there  

The magnanimous and considerate Canadian  government has offered to provide a free bus ride for Canadians from Tel-Aviv to Amman.  From Amman, they are "on their own" though the Canadian government will try to help people find flights from Amman to other locations and eventually back to Canada.  I spoke to someone yesterday at Synagogue - who told me that their family member took one of these rides to Amman and has now been told that the next available flight out is July 3rd, 2025 - or about 11 days from now.  

My understanding is that Amman does not have the types of shelters that Israel does and his being hit with occasional pieces of missiles that have been shot down. As well, the Jordanian airport has been opening and closing depending on the situation.  Even though Jordanian falafel is apparently quite good, I would rather wait in Israel and take my chances in the Israeli shelters. But maybe that's just me...

In contrast to Canada, by the way, the U.S. has been organizing flights for U.S. citizens from Tel-Aviv to Athens.  Americans can register with the U.S. government and wait to be notified of an available flight. Beats a bus ride to Amman, in my view, even though the falafels at the Ben Gurion airport (if any of the food places are open) might not be as tasty as those in Amman. (Though in Israel they will be Kosher).

Religion

I couldn't finish this blog without mentioning at least 2 or 3 religious references.

For one thing, many observant Jews were convinced that the U.S. attack would take place this week to coincide with the dates in the  Biblical story of Purim on which King Achashverosh decreed that the Jewish of Shushan (modern day Iran) and surrounding areas could defend themselves with arms against those who were seeking to kill them.  Okay the date did not work out exactly as planned -  but considering that the operation was planned months ago  for  6-13 - this may well have been a consideration.

I am part of a social media group that discusses "leining issues" (issues relating to the reading of the weekly Torah portion. There was a whole discussion - about what happens if a forced synagogue closure causes a shul to skip the weekly Torah reading.  Does it do a double reading the next week?  Apparently, the halachic answer was that you read the entire previous week's portion as the first aliyah, combined with the first aliyah for that week.  That is a lot of Torah reading!  Everyone has their own priority list of issues to consider when dealing with ongoing missile barrages.  (Other Israelis are preoccupied with which items they need to keep in the safe room - in ready-to-go bags - in case the building is hit by a missile and  destroyed). 

Lastly - I note that Prime Minister Netanyahu found quite a healthy dose of religion over the past few days.  Just now, I heard him explaining that he wrapped himself in a Tallith, visited the Kotel and said "Shema Yisrael" just before authorizing the Israeli operation.  He said that he repeated this gestures in thanks yesterday after hearing from President Trump that the operation had been a success. This is fascinating coming from an avowedly secular Prime Minister.  Perhaps the more cynical among us might wonder if he is trying  to appeal to his Orthodox supporters to bolster his support -  but surely Prime Minister Netanyahu could not be that cynical...could he?  I leave that to you to determine.

Conclusion

We remain hopeful that our planned family wedding for September 4th will go ahead along with all of the other events including the aufruf, Hina and Shabbat dinner. Hopefully, there will be some kind of deal in place - with Iran and Hamas, the war will be over and the hostages will be back home.  And I hope that I will have been able to go back and forth at least once or twice between now and then.

There are many things that I have not covered  in this blog - just too much going on - so I will save some material for next time. In the meantime, I am hoping and praying for the safety of our Israeli armed forces in carrying out their operations, for the safety of Israeli civilians all over Israel (Jewish, Christian and Muslim - all of whom have been targeted by Iranian missiles), for the safe return of the  hostages and an end to the Gaza war  and for an end to this war that results in many years of peace in the Middle East. Shavua Tov.





Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah 2025

It is the evening of Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah -  2025 (Remembrance Day for .  In less than one month, we will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II - or at least the surrender of Nazi Germany and their allies.  This means 80 years since the end of the Holocaust - the murder and destruction of 6 million Jews and their communities across Europe.

In the ashes of the Holocaust, the State of Israel was born three years later, in 1948.  This marked one of the themes of tonight's commemoration of Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah in Ra'anana, Israel.  We attended the one-hour commemoration in the Ra'anana city centre - Yad Lebanim - along with thousands of other Ra'anana residents many of whom were wearing white.  Restaurants and shops had all closed at 6 p.m.  to commemorate the evening.  This moving commemoration included testimonials from Holocaust survivors, readings of poetry, letters and diary entries, of survivors and victims, as well as several moving musical performances.  The ceremony concluded with the reading of "Nizkor," El Maleh Rachamim and a power Hatikvah, Israel's national anthem.

We came home from the city commemoration and turned on the national commemoration, shown on Israel's different television stations.  Like the Ra'anana ceremony, the national program included testimonials from survivors (Including the mother of famous comedian Adir Miller).  The musical performances were powerful and included a Hebrew version of "Bring Him Home" (from Les Miserables) by well known Israeli singer Amir Dadon - and several songs by Christian Israeli singer Valeri Hamaty (a two-time runner up in Israeli season long singing contests).  There were also several performances by singer and pianist Rami Kleinstein.

Israeli commemorations of  the saddest days on the calendar - Yom Hazikaron (Israeli Remembrance  Day for Soldiers and Terror Victims) and Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah - are generally marked by some of the most powerful, moving and emotional musical performances of the year.

In any case, it is on days like Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah that we feel the overwhelming privilege of being able to live in Israel - of being part of a country that has been built to serve as a haven for worldwide Jewry and to mark a return to our ancient ancestral homeland.  Especially these days, where we look around the world and see such a tremendous resurgence of anti-Semitism in so many places, we take some comfort in knowing that Israel will do whatever it can to safeguard, protect and foster Jewish identity and the Jewish people - not just in Israel but across the world.

I was going to add comments on a range of other topics - but I decided that Yom Hashoah v'Gvurah should have its own individual entry.  I am off to attend, virtually, the Law Society of Ontario's annual Yom Hashoah program.  I will spend a good part of the day tomorrow watching special programming and perhaps attending in person at other nearby events (while also trying to get some work done).

Even after 80 years, it remains unfathomable that an advanced, industrialized country would set up a wide ranging murder industry complete with dedicated trains, gas chambers, death camps - and would enlist so much of its citizenry and the citizenry of other countries to assist and participate in trying to eliminate every last Jewish person in Europe. Indeed, the Nazis were hoping to eliminate all of world Jewry. The murder of some 6 million Jewish in this fashion surely marks the depths of humanity's evil.  How could the German people and their accomplices do this?  How could the world not intervene?  How can human beings carry out such despicable and evil acts?

These are unanswerable questions.  They are questions that shake faith in humanity for many people - and for others, they even shake faith in God.  What kind of omni-powerful, omni-benevolent being could allow these atrocities to occur? These are questions for another time - perhaps an in-depth theological blog.

But these questions remind us that we have so much work to do to create a world without these types of horrible atrocities.  While one of the key purposes of Yom Hashoah, is to remember and commemorate these horrible events as Jews and in the interest of ensuring that these types of events can never happen again to the Jewish people - Yom Hashoah also reminds us and the world of the work that we must do to prevent these kind of atrocities from taking place anywhere in the world. 







Thursday, January 16, 2025

Cease Fire, Hostage Release Deal and Other Updates

It has been a while since my last post - I think about three months.  So for all of you who have been waiting for a monthly (or weekly) blog - sorry about that.  I am just two busy.  But much has happened since October 2024.  At different times, I had thoughts of writing a blog - and some ideas - but I just couldn't get around to it.  As it is - I have a very packed schedule today - but I thought I would see how much I could put together in one hour or maybe two.

Hostage Deal/ Cease Fire

As you might have guessed, the first thing I have to write about is the apparent deal that Israel has reached with Hamas - as negotiated with Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. and others.  In case the Canadian readers are wondering - Canada does not seem to have played any role in these negotiations other than cheering on Hamas, backing anti-Israel U.N. resolutions etc.,

There is nobody on the Israeli side that I have heard that will say this is a "good" deal.  It is not. The apparent deal is staged over a 42 day period - by which time a total of 34 Israelis will have been released - though we don't know for sure how many of them are (or will be) alive.  Rumours are that the number is 23 living hostages.  In exchange, Israel will release some 3,000 Hamas terrorists, many of whom are serving jail sentences, will allow a dramatic increase in aid coming into Gaza and will pull back troops from many areas of Gaza - and eventually leave Gaza altogether.

Although the deal is highly problematic, it seems highly unlikely that Israel will get a better deal any time soon - and continued fighting will doom the 34 hostages - as well as hundreds of soldiers who will die in further fighting.  It is unclear that this continued fighting will wind up getting Israel a better deal.

If we have a chance to save the lives of these 34 hostages - and maybe more - there are still 98 being held, even though we do not know how many are still alive - then the State of Israel has an obligation to its citizens to save as many as possible.  Especially since we do  not have an alternate plan to either save them or end the war.

There are many different stories emerging about the negotiations - and it is really hard to say what is true and what is not.  Different sources from inside Israel and from the U.S. have indicated that a deal was almost completed in May 2024 but Netanyahu's government added additional conditions at the last  minute.  Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, both ministers in Bibi's government, have taken credit for "preventing" the deal at that time - which effectively means - taking credit for minimal gains in Gaza, the deaths of many Israeli soldiers and the deaths of many of the hostages who may have been released.

At the same time, Israel's accomplishments in Lebanon and Syria - and even Iran - were all significant and seem to have put Israel in a much better position geopolitically.  According to other reports, it is Hamas that was refusing a deal between June and  now - and has only now agreed to a similar deal because it has been weakened considerably.

I cannot give any authoritative answer to these questions. However, if there is any chance of saving these lives after so much time in captivity, I think it is the time is right for us to do so.

On the cynical side - many reports suggest that it was Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who broke the logjam this week by essentially reading Bibi the riot act and telling him that the war had to end now. It certainly seems to me that earlier reports are correct - that Bibi did not want to end the war early - at Trump's request - because it would be viewed as helping the Democrats with the election.  Of course there is no proof of that - but the timing does speak for itself in my view.  

The interesting point here is that Bibi and his far right cohorts - Smotrich and Ben-Gvir - were convinced that Trump would more or less let them do whatever they wanted when he became President - and "finish off" Hamas (whatever that might mean).  However, instead, Trump apparently told them, through his envoy, that the war had to end now - and this would be the end of the war.  Trump has indicated that he wants to move ahead with peace talks with Saudi Arabia - which means some kind of permanent arrangement for the Palestinians.  This is all terrifying to Ben Gvir and Smotrich who were hoping to build settlements in Gaza  and are adamantly insisting that they will be able to continue the war after the 42 day cease fire period.

All of this being said, there are still reports that the deal has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet or signed by both sides yet, even though it is supposed to take effect on Sunday at Noon (Israel time).  I believe that the deal will proceed but I guess anything can happen between now and then as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir try to stop the deal. (As a late postscript - Bibi has now apparently  delayed the start of the deal to Monday instead of Sunday - with no apparent reason - other than - so that the release of prisoners coincides with the inauguration of Mr. Trump....)

The Future of Bibi's Government

Two of Bibi's coalition partners, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, are threatening to leave the government if this hostage/cease fire deal goes ahead.  However, it is important to listen to them closely.  Ben-Gvir says he will officially leave the government but he will not vote against it or bring it down and will still support it from the outside.  Smotrich says he will leave the government if the army does not return to Gaza to fight some more - after the 42 day deal is complete.  Effectively, neither of these two coalition partners are promising to bring down the government now - they are only making idle threats at this point for political reasons.

Ultimately, the far-right parties have no interest in an election any time soon.  They are in key positions of power - controlling the police, the budget, and many other ministries.  They could risk all of that if an election were to be held, which is not supposed to take place until October 2026, unless the government falls before then.  I don't believe that they are about to cause the government to fall.

The ultra-Orthodox parties are also making a great deal of noise - and are continuing to demand a blanket exemption from the army.  It seems increasingly unlikely that this government will be able to get that bill passed - with growing opposition from Bibi's own party,  internally.  However, I don't believe that the ultra-Orthodox are interested in an election at this time - since they are enjoying a golden era of massive funding for their yeshivas, rabbinical institutions and other programs - which could face huge cuts after an election.

There are other two other major sources of tension.  Some of the far right extremists in Bibi's coalition -  Simcha Rotman and Yariv Levin - would like to bring back the "judicial reform" plan to the centre of the agenda.  Their logic is that the war is almost "over" and they should use this opportunity, while this far-right government is still in power - to take over the judiciary and implement changes that will favour their agenda.  This is creating tension within the Likud party itself - as even some of the Likud members cannot stomach these proposed changes.  It is hard to say what will happen here though I would imagine that some of the changes will go ahead and some will be "delayed."

The other source of tension is Bibi's criminal trial which may now proceed at a faster pace if the cease fire deal is implemented. I am not going to get into that too much at this point - other than to mention that he has had a few days of "examination-in-chief" - which means giving evidence that he and his lawyers have tailored for his benefit. Included in this testimony, Bibi gave evidence that he signs "all kinds of paperwork everyday and often has no idea what he is signing."  In fact, he testified that even today - he still does not understand some of the key deals that he signed (including deals  that allegedly favoured Bezeq - to the tune of hundreds of millions of shequels - in exchange for favourable publicity).

Suffice it to say that Bibi's cross-examination on all of this - if it ever occurs - should be fascinating - especially for lawyers....who greatly enjoy watching these types of proceedings.  From where I sit - it seems hard to imagine that Bibi will go ahead with the cross-examinations - rather than cut some sort of deal before they occur.  Given that his starting point - is "I had no idea what I was signing" - and that is normally evidence that might be adduced in a cross-examination not an examination in chief, it can only get worse in a cross-examination.  I have no idea where this will all end up - but I have predicted all along - and continue to maintain  - that this case will never go to a verdict.  Either a plea bargain deal will be reached at some point - or Bibi's coalition partners will succeed in somehow legislating an end to the trial.  I think the former is more likely but that remains to be seen.

Getting to Israel

As you may know, it has been incredibly difficult to get to Israel since October 7, 2023, with most airlines, including all of the major U.S. airlines and most of the European airlines, cancelling their service to Israel.  Only El Al and a few other Israeli airlines have continued to fly and earn record profits.

With the announcement of the pending deal, Lufthansa has just announced that it plans to resume flights very shortly.  I imagine many other airlines will follow suit.

An Air Canada representative told me that Air Canada was set to resume flights on April 1, 2025, assuming that this deal goes ahead and remains in place.

All of that is great news for those looking to fly to Israel.  Hopefully tourists will start to come back - and hopefully all of these guests that want to come for our family wedding will be able to get here easily and safely.

I am still planning to return on my next flight through Rome but perhaps my next flight back to Israel will be on an Air Canada direct flight - if they begin earlier than April.

Yemen and Iran

We had to get up at about 2:30 a.m. two nights ago to run to our "safe room" because of a missile alert.  Apparently the Houthis had fired some ballistic missiles at Israel from Yemen.  The Houthis have always said that they will stop firing missiles when the war with Hamas ends - but I do not know if Israel will agree to stop taking any action against these Yemeni terrorists.

Israel is also pushing for approval from the incoming Trump administration to conduct a joint operation and take out the Iranian nuclear program.  Certainly, it seems that Israel would prefer a regime change and an opportunity to try and work with a new Iranian regime and build peace between the two countries.  Israel is still hoping that this will be the outcome in Lebanon and in Syria with the destruction of much of Hezbollah.   It also seems that Trump would prefer to avoid a military confrontation with Iran.   Netanyahu has always indicated that it is the centrepiece of his government's program - to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This war has made that objective even more pressing.  

Nevertheless, it seems to me that Trump will try to use diplomatic means rather than military to deal with Iran and Israel will not be able to do anything alone.  This all remains to be seen.

Eurovision

For the past few years - Israel has used its reality TV singing contest - "the Next Star" to select Israel's choice for the annual Eurovision contest.  The show is now down to five contestants.  Unlike some years, there is no clear favourite and it should be an interesting finish next week (or the week after).  A very interesting story is that one of the favourites is an Israeli Arab Christian - named Valeri Hamati. She is extraordinarily talented though not "head and shoulders" above the field. It is particularly fascinating because some people have very strong views about having a Christian Arab represent Israel on the world stage at an international singing contest.  She almost lost in the last round but made it through to the final five.  I think that she would be a great contestant though I am not sure that she will win - and if she doesn't  - I would  not necessarily blame it on her background.  I would say that it is a close field.  If she was clearly above  the other contestants - it would have been really interesting to see.  But her last performance was less than earth-shattering and at least two of the other contestants delivered excellent presentations.  We will know soon enough.

Movies

I am trying to do my best to catch up on all of the Oscar nominated movies before the Oscars.  Of course, the list of nominations is not out yet - so we can only speculate.  But I have seen three movies that are almost certain to be on the list.  Anora, Wicked and, most recently "A Real Pain."

I watched A Real Pain this week.  I thought it was really well done.  It is the story of two first cousins who join up with a tour of Poland and its concentration camps. There are many themes that really resonated with me (as someone who has ancestors who were killed in these camps).  The movie covers a variety of themes - including the manner in which a tour guide should lead this type of group (we have a family member who is a tour guide as you may know), the effect on people of visiting the death camps, the interaction with Polish civilians, and issues of depression and mental illness.  I know it probably sounds like a real downer from that description but I would strongly recommend it.

I am not going to discuss the others for now - I have to leave some material for future blogs, though I really enjoyed Wicked and would have loved to go to one of the "sing-along" performances of it.

Sports

Not related to Israel at all, since sports events are not really followed here nearly as much as in North America - other than major soccer events - like the  World Cup etc., but nevertheless I have to add just a couple of comments.

Since I grew up (since the age of 12 anyways), closest to Buffalo, I have always been a Buffalo Bills' fan.  As you might know, Buffalo played in the Super Bowl four years  in a row - and  has the distinct honour of being able to say that it lost all four times.

But here we are - with the Bills playing this Sunday - still having a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.  They are playing a very tough opponent - the Baltimore Ravens - but I will be watching the game starting at 1:30 a.m.  on Sunday night.

I doubt I would actually want to go the game in person and sit for 3 hours in -15C weather - even if I were in Toronto and could get to Buffalo.  It  is much more comfortable to fire up the barbecue in 21C weather and watch in optimal conditions.  But I am hoping for the best.

I might also stay up and watch the NCAA football final on Monday night - but I don't have a particular horse in that race - other than to cheer for Ohio State on behalf of my family members who live in Columbus.

Conclusion

At this point, my conclusion has to be that I am hoping for the return of all of the hostages - and that they will be able to get the support they need to return to their lives. They will need medical, psychological, emotional and all kinds of other support after this devastating experience but we are hoping for the best for them.  Israel will also have to endure a large number of funerals as the bodies of many dead hostages are likely to be returned.  This will be very traumatic.

I am also hoping for the safety of our soldiers - who are generally recruited civilians from the Israeli population called to serve their country. To date, a total of 840 Israeli soldiers have been killed including 405 in combat operations after the start of the war.

Of course I would also like to see an end to this conflict but we will require a much more significant change. There cannot really be an end to the conflict unless the Palestinians have leadership that is committed to a non-violent long-term solution to the conflict.  If Hamas remains in power - and that seems to be the case with this current deal - it is hard to imagine that we will see any kind of long term peace any time soon.  But maybe with big changes in Lebanon and Syria - there is a glimmer of hope that we will see some major changes in the region.  If changes do occur - and are attributable to this war - that may well be viewed as a long term gain from the war - despite the terrible cost that it exacted from Israelis and Palestinians.

Wishing everyone peace and the best of health.






Friday, August 16, 2024

Waiting for Doha: The Middle East on the Edge and More August 2024

Much has taken place since my last blog.  As I have said on a few occasions, I can't keep up with everything going on so this cannot be viewed  as a definitive news source. I pick and choose what I write about when I have the time to do it - so it is a fairly limited snapshot viewed through my lens - from here in Ra'anana, Israel.  But I felt that I should write about a few things at this point.  There may well be a great deal more to write about in the coming days.

State of the War

As you probably know, Israel representatives are in Doha, Qatar meeting with a range of delegates from the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and others - to try and negotiate a multi-party deal of some sort that could end or pause current hostilities. There are many different moving parts here and much of the information is of questionable accuracy - so I think all that we can do is speak about what we are hearing - and ruminate about what seems likely.

Gaza

First of all, the main negotiations, of course, are about trying to end or pause the current Israeli war with Hamas and Gaza.  Hamas is still holding in the range of 120 Israeli prisoners, many of whom are dead.  Current negotiations are apparently discussing the return of 30 to 35 live prisoners - with the remaining prisoners and/or bodies to be returned at later stages.  

The only decision makers left for Hamas appear to be Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and his brother Mohammed, though Yahya is apparently in charge.  Yahya Sinwar has been hoping, all along, since the massacres of October 7, 2023, that Hezbollah and Iran would become fully involved in the war and turn it into a wide, destabilizing, regional conflagration.  Hamas was quite disappointed that Hezbollah did not go "all in" at the outset and use its full rocket supply to bombard all of Israel.  More on Hezbollah shortly.

At this point, Hamas is still looking to portray this war as a victory.  The organization has caused significant damage to Israel, has killed, mutilated and kidnapped a large number of Israelis, civilians and soldiers - and has caused severe damage to the Israeli economy.  Sinwar would like to emerge from all of this with his leadership intact, the ability to rebuild and rearm - and the ability to re-control Gaza.  An arrangement that meets these criteria for him would allow him to proclaim victory, despite the extraordinary costs incurred by Gaza - in terms of Hamas casualties, civilian deaths and infrastructure damage.

Not surprisingly, Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government are adamantly opposed to this type of deal.  While Israel is trying to negotiate a deal that would return the hostages, especially those who are still alive, to Israel as soon as possible, Israel is deeply concerned about a deal that would allow Sinwar to "restock" and try this again in a few years - as he has committed to doing.

One issue that is being negotiated is the control of the "Philadelphi corridor" - the border between Gaza and Egypt.  Israel would like to ensure that this border is  no longer used for weaponizing Gaza - as it has apparently been used  for years.  If Hamas can simply rearm by bringing in weapons through Egypt, there will simply be a continued cycle of further wars between Israel and Hamas.

A second issue - is the Hamas insistence on being able to take armed control over most of Gaza as part of any "truce."   For the people of Gaza - this would mean more of the same - from a leadership that has shown little interest in governing the civilian population for anything other than military aims.

A third issue is a dispute over who Israel will agree to release in exchange for the Israeli hostages.  Hamas would like the return of high profile, convicted murderers, such as Marwan Barguti, whereas Israel is concerned about making the same mistakes it made when it released Yahya Sinwar himself, years earlier.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised "total victory" on several occasions, which he has defined as returning all of the hostages and destroying Hamas.  Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, this week, called Netanyahu's position "nonsense" and basically stated that it was unattainable and that Israel should cut the best deal possible.

Netanyahu's coalition is made up of his party along with a far right party.  His far right coalition partners have no interest in a deal of any kind and would like to see a complete Hamas surrender - which includes the death of Sinwar himself and his brother.  It is unclear whether Netanyahu himself actually wants any kind  of deal or agrees with his coalition partners - that the war must be prosecuted until it is completed (much like the Allies fight against Nazi Germany, they proclaim).

Of course, that type of "total victory" would also require a complete rebuilding of Gaza to change the current situation and would require that the people of Gaza agree to that type of rebuilding and some new governance  structure.

Ultimately, I am skeptical about whether a truce will be reached at this time - while Sinwar is still alive.  For one thing, I am not sure that Sinwar himself is prepared to agree to conditions that would be palatable to Israel. Similarly, I am not sure that Netanyahu and his coalition, despite US pressure, are prepared to agree to the type of deal that might be available at this time.

I guess we will have a better idea over the next few days.  The U.S. pressure for a deal is immense but it is unclear that there is any real corresponding pressure on Hamas.

Hezbollah

As all of this rages on, Israel is still embroiled in a major conflict with Hezbollah, which essentially controls Lebanon.  Since  October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel from the north, firing drones, rockets, rpgs and other projectiles.  Hezbollah has killed many Israeli soldiers and civilians and has caused damage all across northern Israel.  Tens of thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in the north.

Netanyahu decided at the outset that he would try to fight one war at a time and resist the calls to launch a full scale war against Hezbollah until the Gaza war was completed.  Hezbollah has therefore continued  to attack Israel since October 7, 2023.  Although Israel has certainly responded, it has not launched the kind of full-scale war that many Israelis have demanded - as a way of stopping the attacks on the North.

Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran and takes its instructions from Iran, much like the Houthis in Yemen. Hezbollah has been trying to calculate how much damage it can cause Israel without having Israel launch an all out war in response - and above all - without damaging Iran, the real force behind Hezbollah.

Quite simply, it is unclear what Hezbollah sees as an outcome at this point.

On the one hand, Hezbollah has stated that if there is a truce between Israel and Gaza, Hezbollah will stop its attacks.  Of course, if the truce talks fail, there may be a major war - which could start any day now - initially between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel would like to see its citizens return to their homes in the north with assurances of safety.  Under a truce deal in 2006, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces at least 12 km from the border between Lebanon and Israel.  This was supposed to be a "demilitarized zone."  Over the past few years, Hezbollah has moved closer and closer to the border, despite the agreement, violating just about all of the relevant provisions.  If there is to be a deal without a war, Israel will need international, enforceable, assurances that Hezbollah will move back from the border and will not attack.

It is unclear whether Hezbollah is prepared to agree to these conditions.  Moreover, Netanyahu's coalition partners believe that an all out war with Lebanon will be the only way to create the conditions that can allow Israel's northern residents return to their homes.  Hezbollah has very sophisticated Iranian-built weaponry including long range missiles, drones and all sorts of other weapons. An Israeli-Hezbollah war will be very costly to both sides. There may be tens of thousands of casualties - and Beirut and Tel-Aviv are both likely to suffer significant damage.  

Iran

Iran is the mastermind behind everything going on  now in the region.  Its leadership has sworn to destroy Israel.  It armed and trained the Hamas terrorists who carried out the October 7, 2023 massacres.  It arms and trains Hezbollah and  it has armed and trained the Houthis in Yemen.

Other than its one major attack in April 2024, Iran has so far avoided attacking Israel directly, preferring instead to use its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 

As you know, one of the main Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in a mysterious explosion - and the Iranians have blamed Israel and have vowed to take revenge for  killing their "guest."  Iran has stated on several occasions since Haniyeh's death that it is going to launch a major attack against Israel.  This has crippled  Israeli air  travel - with most foreign carriers cancelling their flights (other than  Emirates, Fly Dubai, Air France, Wizz Air, and a few others).  El Al is dominating the Israeli skies (for non-military purposes).  Iranian threats have put Israel on its "highest" level of alert and military readiness.  Moreover, the U.S. has sent aircraft carries and other vessels to the region to bolster deterrence against Iran.

Once again, the outcome is hard to predict. Netanyahu and his coalition partners seem to believe that this is their big chance to destroy the Iranian nuclear program with a major war against Iran.  They also seem to realize that they cannot do this alone - and seem to be trying to drag the U.S. into a major conflict with Iran.

The U.S., on the other hand, is trying to avoid this, wary of turning the whole region into a major war zone - and looking down the road at long-term stability.  The Iranian nuclear program is a major threat to regional and world peace - especially since Iran has threatened to use it to destroy Israel.  But I still think the U.S. believes that it can  come up with a peaceful solution to this problem.

I don't think Netanyahu agrees (and certainly his coalition partners do not) but I think he also realizes that he cannot just launch a war against Iran and expect U.S. assistance.

There are all kinds of articles and opinions about these issues - and I think it is something that could be discussed at much greater length.  The bottom line is that we are,  in my view, very close to a major Middle Eastern war involving several countries and I think much of the decision making at this point as to whether that happens rests with Tehran.

Ultimately, Israel (or at least its current leadership) would like the opportunity to try and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.  It would also like to see regime change in Iran - with the hope that Israel can, one day, have peaceful relations with Iran as it did when Iran was ruled by the Shah.  At the same time, a war with Iran could be devastating to both countries.  It could get completely out of hand and could involve the U.S., Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the region. It could even cause  instability in Egypt.  Moreover, if Iran already has nuclear weapons, it could try to use them.  And we know what type of response that would draw.

There are some very frightening scenarios - and I think it is fair to say that Israelis, and many others in the region, have been thinking and worrying about those scenarios for quite a while now, especially over the last week.

If the Doha truce talks succeed, these concerns may be brought down a few notches for the time being. If they fail, things may well explode, in fairly short order.

Israeli Terrorism and other offences

Some of you may not like the language, but we need to call a spade a spade.  As you know, Israel's current Minister of National Security is Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal.  He has been refashioning the Israeli police forces and overlooking serious criminal activity in the West Bank.

Yesterday, a group of masked Israeli settlers apparently attacked a Palestinian village outside of Nablus, killing at least one resident and wounding several others. This was essentially a "pogrom" - criminal terrorist activity by a gang of thugs - attacking Arab residents.  Just weeks ago, a group of Israelis attacked an Arab Israeli family in their vehicle.

There have, unfortunately, been far too many of these attacks.  These were  not the first such attacks. The Israeli government needs to take immediate steps to stop these attacks, to arrest the perpetrators and to punish them with the full severity of Israeli law. 

There are also reports of torture at the Israeli facility called Sde Teiman - which was used to hold captured Hamas Nukhba fighters.  Now these captured people were not exactly sympathetic figures - they were people involved in rapes, mutilations, murders and other related activities on October 7, 2023.

At the same time, Israel is governed, we like to believe, by the rule of law.  The Israeli Supreme Court has set guidelines for  how prisoners are to be treated - even prisoners who, ultimately, deserve the most severe punishments.  If these guidelines were breached - and if there is truth to some of the allegations that have been made, the perpetrators should be tried and, if convicted, punished to the fullest extent  of the law, despite the protestations from Netanyahu's coalition members.  (Some of these coalition members and their supporters actually went and attacked an Israeli army base where the accused were being held for interrogation.  This was a very serious threat to the Israel's stability).

At the same time, the calls by the ICJ to have Netanyahu and Gallant arrested and charged with genocide are fairly ridiculous and obviously political. Hamas has estimated that more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 7.  However, it does not differentiate between civilians and armed fighters.  The Israeli estimates had been that Hamas had between 40,000 and 50,000 guerillas at the time the war started.  A sizeable number of these fighters have been killed.

Although I agree that a large number of civilians have been killed and I feel that is tragic, I have not seen any evidence that Israel is deliberately targeting civilians or taking other steps that would even come close to the definition of genocide.   Yes, it is a war - and yes, quite a large number of Palestinians have been killed, especially members of the Hamas military forces.  But  given the type of attacks that Hamas launched and the continuing missile attacks that ensued, it seems to me that just about any Israeli government on the right or the left would have a launched a similar military response to the Hamas massacres.

For example, in one report last week, Israel was accused of bombing a school and killing a large number of civilians. But the school was being used as a military base by Hamas. More than 30 Hamas fighters were killed by Israel in the attack and Israel even released their names to show that this was an attack on a military target.  That didn't help with the world media, which jumped to accuse Israel of having committed a "war crime."

The fact that so many countries oppose Israel's right to defend itself after these types of attacks - tells us  much more about those countries than it does about justice or the rules of  war.   Unfortunately, it also raises concerns about how international law can be used as a political tool by the majority.  In my view, it is very short sighted of the ICJ to pick Israel  - after having ignored so many other conflicts in the world that have been far worse - and in which there has been evidence of the deliberate targeting and massacre of large numbers of civilians.  It degrades the legitimacy of international law, which creates a long term crisis of confidence and justice.

Olympics

You have probably been reading this - thinking that there has been nothing but bad news.  So I thought I should try to add something that is a bit more  positive.

The Israeli Olympic delegation won a total of 7 medals - 1 gold, 5 silver and 1 bronze.   This was Israeli's best Olympics ever.  Even though there had been some calls from various countries to bar Israel from participating, and even though Israeli athletes received death threats and were routinely booed at events, the 88-member Israeli delegation still competed valiantly and came home with a  record medal haul.

Israel's gold medal was won by Tom Reuveny in sailing in the "IQ Foil" event.  After winning, he urged Israelis to take their kids to sailing clubs across the country and get them started early.  I have to say that it does look like quite a bit of fun.  Fellow Israeli Sharon Kantor also won a silver in women's IQ Foil.

Three Israelis won medals in Judo - Inbar Lanir and Raz Hershko won silvers and Peter Paltchik won a bronze.  Hershko has been a world champion and lost a very close bout.  She was really hoping for a gold. Judo doesn't look nearly as fun as sailing - to me at least.

Artem Dolgopyat won a silver medal in men's artistic gymnastics and the Israeli women's rhythmic gymnastics team picked up a silver medal in the group rhythmic gymnastics competition.   They were also hoping to win gold - as they had previously won a European  title.  It was close - but they were all still quite happy to return home with silver.

The Israeli football (soccer) team competed for only the second time ever in the Olympics.  The team wound up in a tie with Mali after giving up a late goal.  It then lost badly to Paraguay and lost a very close match to Japan.  There had been high hopes that the team could advance to the second round but the team came  up short.

Tisha B'Av

As you may know, Jewish people around the world commemorated Tisha B'av this past week on Monday night and  Tuesday.  Tisha B'Av commemorates the destruction of the first and second Temples - which, of course, stood on the spot where the Dome of the Rock now stands in Jerusalem.

It is a day of mourning and fasting and many people try to visit Jerusalem.  Unlike other Jewish commemorations and holydays, it is not classified as a  "yom tov" so work is allowed  if necessary, as well as driving etc., 

I wasn't able to get to the Kotel this year but I did fast and wound up leading some of the tefillot at our local shul.  Jewish fast days mean no food or water for about 26 hours - which is especially challenging in the summer when the fast only ends around 8:30 p.m.

There was a great deal of concern this year that the Iranians  and/or Hezbollah would choose to attack on Tisha B'Av - just as Hamas attacked on October 7, 2023 on a different Jewish Holy Day.  But that did not materialize - and the day came and went with relatively little fanfare.

For observant Jews, the period between Tisha B'Av and Rosh Hashanah is called "bein Hazmanim" which means "the in between-period."  This is often a time when many  people travel - either in Israel or outside of Israel.

For sports fans, I would also say  that it is like an "in between time."  The Olympics are over and we are waiting for the start of NFL and NHL sports seasons.  I suppose if I were a bigger baseball fan, I might be excited about the baseball homestretch - but the Blue Jays have been abysmal this year.  

Now that the Maple Leafs have named Auston Matthews as their new captain - perhaps this will finally be the year the Maple Leafs break through (spoiler - I am not counting on it).  And I am also hoping that the Buffalo Bills will have a great season, though I am concerned that their off season activity has left them in a weaker position overall.  I can't say that I am that excited about the Raptors or basketball in general, though I greatly enjoyed Steph Curry's performance in the Olympic gold medal game. I also enjoyed watching the American women's basketball team squeak out a win over the French team - in a game that literally came  down to the final buzzer.  Unfortunately, the Canadian teams fell quite short of the goals they hoping to reach - in basketball and in soccer.

Flight Update

There are very few International airlines flying to Israel these days.  Some, like Air Canada and United - have no plans to fly  to Israel until well into 2025.  Other airlines are postponing fights with much shorter windows.  Air France is the largest non-Israeli carrier that has continued to fly - and  Emirates has also continued its Tel-Aviv-Dubai route. On the other  hand, El Al is continuing to fly and is delivering record financial results.  To give you an idea of how it is doing that - try this.  I looked up airfares yesterday for a flight from Toronto to Tel Aviv via New York on El Al, in September/October.  The cost?  $5,600.  Economy.  That flight would normally be in the range of $1,200 to $1,500.  But since El Al has a virtual monopoly to so many destinations, the prices are nothing less than outrageous.

I have had to change my travel plans several times.  My latest iteration is to fly Arkia airlines to Rome and then Air Canada from Rome.  Hopefully that will work out and I will be able to get back to Toronto for a bit. The total cost is, of course, nowhere close to $5,600 even with a hotel stay in Rome.

Not sure when my next update will be - but what can I say - hoping for the safe return  of all of the hostages, an end to the war, a deal with Hezbollah and Iran - and  then hopefully a State Inquiry into  everything that has taken place in Israel - and, ideally an Israeli election.

Best regards.



Sunday, June 16, 2024

June 2024 Blog - Shavuot and Beyond

 

These are challenging times to write this kind of blog.  Israel is in a very difficult period - facing challenges of all sorts.  We are in the midst of one of Israel's most difficult wars - with Hamas, Hezbollah and, primarily, Iran (even though an active Israel-Iran war has not yet broken out directly).  We have more than 120 hostages still being held by Hamas and its partners. We do not know for sure how many of these hostages are still alive. 

Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced and have still not returned to their homes since  October 7, 2023.  Many cities along Israel's northern border and south of those areas are virtual ghost towns with only the military present. Many cities and towns near the Gaza border are also uninhabited. There are rocket, missile and drone attacks from Hezbollah in the north daily - and many have been lethal - for soldiers and for civilians.  Many soldiers are dying and still more are being injured each day.  The situation in Gaza itself is awful for Gazans, though that is somewhat predictable when you launch an all out war.  We also have our fair share of political disarray with no clearly defined direction for how to proceed with this war, what the "end game" is and how long all of this might take.  

Despite all of this, I am still covering a few different areas in my blog - since ultimately, life is like that.  There are difficult and challenging events - even horrible occurrences - and sometimes - alongside those events - other happy, even joyous occasions.  There are many serious things to write about - and if I were a news journalist - I suppose I would simply fill my blog with those topics.  But my intent is to cover some news highlights and commentary and some other observations, comments and thoughts about life in Israel or related topics - sometimes only tangentially related. Despite the ongoing war - and the fact that I could fill the blog with war news, I would rather continue writing this blog the way I have for the past 15 years or so.  So here are a few different items which may or may not be connected.

Travelling Back to Israel

It is still hit or miss as to which international  airlines have restored their service to Toronto.  Air Canada had indicated that it would resume flights to Israel in August (and some people that I spoke to last night sounded hopeful about this).  But Air Canada has postponed or cancelled its resumption of flights to Israel a few times now.   I don't really believe that they will restore service until the war is "over" or there is some semblance of a cease fire in place.  And I am really not sure when that will be. 

El Al, as you might recall, cancelled its direct service to Toronto some time ago  - unrelated to the war.  So there are no options for direct flights from Toronto to Tel-Aviv currently.

I have written in past blogs about some of the routes that I have taken since October 7 2023.  I have combined Air Canada and El Al transferring through Europe in Amsterdam (awful), Rome (much better) and London (big hassle).  I have also travelled the whole way or with partner connections on KLM (awful), Delta (not bad) and Air France (great between Israel and Paris - but not so nice between Paris and Toronto).  Overall, it has been a big hassle and has made travel much more tiring and challenging.   

Just before Shavuot, I was finally able to get a fully integrated Star Alliance flight - with a connection and this was certainly the best flight I have had since October.  The check-in and security in Terminal 1 at Pearson Airport are so much easier than what goes on at Terminal 3.  For my most recent flight - it took me a total of about 12 minutes from the time I got to the airport until the time I was at the international lounge - including baggage  drop off and security.  For this type of trip - that is, as we say in Yiddish, a "mechayeh." (something very pleasing).

I was very happy to be back on Air Canada - which is a step above many other airlines  in terms of boarding process, amenities on board, etc.,  especially when compared to Air France, KLM or El Al. The connection in Vienna was very easy.  We arrived at the gate and were let out through a connections area  right into the departure gates area.  No supplementary security or passport security  - like in Paris or Amsterdam.  The Israel gate was right nearby.  My connection time was only 1 hour and 50 minutes - but I had more than an hour to go to the lounge in Vienna (and have some pretty decent coffee).

So hopefully my next few flights will be connections with Air Canada through Vienna, Frankfurt or Zurich so I can stay with the Star Alliance partners and get the benefit of a relatively seamless connection.  Of course it is very difficult to predict whether all of these airlines will continue to fly to Israel and what might happen.

If you are planning to come here and do not want to risk things - your best bet is probably a European connection to an El Al flight - even  if that is not the most comfortable or economical.  It is likely to be secure and reliable.

Shavuot

I did not leave myself too much time between arriving and the  start of Shavuot - which is only one day in Israel.  Like so many other Jewish holidays, Shavuot is associated with food - in this case dairy - especially cheese blintzes and cheesecake.  So I did manage to make some blintzes.  A shout out to Tori Avey and her wonderful website - which has so many great Jewish recipes.  This cheese blintz recipe is just like the recipe that I had from my grandmother z"l, though my grandmother used to add raisins as well.  I have made several other dishes using recipes from Tori Avey's site including a delicious apple honey cake, some lemon bars and a few other items - and they have all been great.  One of my favourite sites.

Ultimately, Shavuot is not just  about the food - we do commemorate our receipt of the Torah - and it is customary to study all night on Erev Shavuot.  At my former shul in Toronto, there used to be an amazing Shavuot program.  We would study for about 45 minutes to an hour, take a short break, then sing for 30-45 minutes, then eat.  We would repeat this all night - until it was time for an early Shacharit service at 6 a.m.  During each break, there would be a different food item. One break might be ice cream sundaes.  Another break might be a selection of wraps.  Maybe one break would be just fruit.  I have managed to find a few different all night study sessions here in Israel over the years - but nothing that was nearly as fun or stimulating.  This year I was too jet lagged.  So it was a dairy dinner with the family and some discussion about everything going on here - but no all night study session.

The "Situation"

I mentioned some of what we are dealing with above.  Yesterday was one of those disastrous days  - 10 soldiers were killed in Gaza - 8 of them when an RPG hit their "Tiger" vehicle.  Their ages ranged from 19 to 49.  Unfortunately, reports like this have become all too commonplace.  These soldiers are mostly recruits - people from all walks of life who perform their mandatory military service - either during the three year period between the ages of 19 and 22 - or as "reserve" soldiers - called to duty afterwards.

Since October 7, 2023, 659 soldiers have been killed and close to 4,000 injured according to the Israeli government site.  

As you know, there is all kinds of world pressure on Israel - from Europe, the U.S. and many other places to end the war - but Hamas has not agreed to any kind of cease fire arrangement that would be acceptable to Israel (or even to the U.S.) and so the war continues.   Meanwhile, there is no indication that a deal with Hezbollah in the north is close - and there is a great deal of talk - that Israel will soon be in a full blown war with Hezbollah/Lebanon/Iran in the north.  That is not to say that we are not in a war right now - we most certainly are.  However, it has not become an all out full blown war - perhaps due to world pressure.  The situation is untenable for Israel.  People cannot return to their homes.  Hezbollah is launching attacks daily - using drones, missiles and RPGs and has set several places on fire.  Although Israel has been attacking sites in different places in Lebanon and Syria (according to news reports), it has not yet taken the kind of action that would be needed to make the northern border safe for return for  Israeli residents.

Meanwhile, the destruction in Gaza is undoubtedly immense but Hamas has not yet been defeated nor has it shown a  willingness to release the hostages and end the war.  Declaring a "Palestinian State" like some countries have done (see Ireland, Spain and Norway) does not seem like a practical way to deal with these issues.  Does that mean recognizing Hamas to run the state?  Will it be demilitarized?  Israel does need to work with the world and the Palestinians to come up with different potential solutions for Gaza - but solutions that will not involve ongoing military and terrorist attacks by Hamas.

Some Knesset members in the current government like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich seem to want to occupy Gaza completely and run it like the West Bank  - with Israeli settlements throughout.  This was the proposal of a former  Knesset member, Moshe Feiglin, on TV last night.

But years ago, even the hawkish Ariel Sharon, came to the conclusion that it was untenable for Israel to continue to run Gaza.  Many  on the right are now blaming his policies for the "Hamasization" of Gaza - but most of what has developed in Gaza has taken place over the past 15-20 years - while Israel has had right wing governments (mainly).  I cannot accept the idea that occupying Gaza and building settlements throughout will bring Israel long term peace  or security.

Of course at the same time, I heard someone from the Israeli "centre-left" yesterday say that many people in Israel in the centre and even some on the "left" have come to the conclusion, post October 7, 2023, that it is "either us or them."  

I am not sure that anyone really has a solution right now - one that would work for Israelis and Palestinians.  Maybe there isn't one.  But we will have to try and find one.  Surely that will be better for both sides than spending the next 100 years killing each other - and perhaps even more time than that.

The Government

Israel continues to be government by an elected 64-56 seat coalition (with 64 seats in a Knesset of 120 members) which is made up of the Likud party (Netanyahu's party), two ultra-religious ("Haredi") parties - one Ashkenazi, one Sephardi and a collection of ultra-nationalist religious parties.  None of these coalition members seem ready to cause the government to fall - irrespective of how popular the government  may or may not be currently.  It can continue to govern until October 2026 if nothing changes.

One of the priorities of this government is to keep its ultra-orthodox coalition members happy.  So even though Israel is talking about a manpower shortage in the army - and floating the idea of extending military service for recruits and calling up more reserves - the government also put a bill through first reading in the Knesset this week to bolster the exemption from military service for the ultra-orthodox.  

Many Israelis are infuriated - even many who support Netanyahu's party.  It seems incredibly tone deaf for Netanyahu to read reports of soldiers being killed and injured - and on the very same day - be seem smiling with the Ultra-Orthodox Knesset members while they pass a bill to have their constituency evade the draft.  This may well be an issue that will spell big trouble for this governing coalition when there is an eventual election.

The Heat

All of this, of course, comes at a time when we are entering peak summer weather season.  I heard a forecast on the radio the other day.  They didn't give any actual temperatures - just said that it was going to be between "very hot and extremely hot."  They also said it would be "hotter than seasonal."  I don't know what that actually meant - but reading the reports - it was between 35 and 40c.  It must be unbearable for our soldiers these days - with all of their equipment - in the southern parts of Israel.

Sports

I don't have too much in the way of Sports news to mention here.  Israelis are all excited about watching the 2024 Euros which kicked off on Friday.  Israel did not make it in.  Israelis are also looking forward to watching the Israeli football (soccer) team participate in the Paris Olympics.  Israel has rarely qualified previously so this will be exciting.

Personally, as you might recall, I am much more of an ice hockey fan.  So I was up watching the Edmonton Oilers play at 3 a.m.  Israel time yesterday.  The last Canada-based team. Edmonton was losing 3-0 in the series - and it was looking likely that they would simply go out quietly.  But they roared back and won the game 8-1 - setting up another elimination game in Florida on Tuesday night at which the Stanley Cup could be presented if Florida wins the game.  Chat (Community Hebrew Academy of Toronto) graduate Zach Hyman is leading the playoffs in goal scoring with 14 goals.  I  haven't looked that up to check - but it might be the highest goal total for a Jewish player ever in one NHL playoff season.

My other comment for the non-hockey fans - is that we are also watching one of the greatest hockey players ever - Connor McDavid.  During this year's playoffs - he has 38 points - which is the 5th highest total in one season's playoffs ever.  The record holder is, of course, Wayne Gretzky, with 47.  So it would still take a minor miracle for McDavid to get 9 or 10 more points - since that would probably also mean helping his team to come back and win three games in a row - after being down 3-0.  (Something that is almost impossible in hockey).

How does this related to my blog?  Israeli singer Hanan Ben-Ari wrote a song a few years ago called "Our life is strawberries."  The first part of the song was a litany of complaints about how difficult life is in Israel - the cost of living, the military situation, the traffic etc.,  But towards the end of the song - he switched to thankfulness for all of the great things in life.  As an observant Orthodox Jew, he mentioned Shabbat - and of course, family, friends, togetherness.  And - the "privilege of being able to watch Lionel  Messi play."  So I am not as excited about Messi - (since I am less of a soccer fan) - but the privilege of being able to watch McDavid play (and players like him) is an amazing thing.  

Canada Comments

I was in Canada over the past few weeks and there are lots of crazy things going on connected to Israel and the Jewish community.  There have been several attacks on synagogues across the country - vandalism, attempted arson etc., There is an ongoing "encampment" on the University of Toronto grounds that has still not been cleared out.  And a bunch of protesters were cleared out by police using tear gas in Montreal - after taking over the president's office at McGill University in Montreal. Very few Canadian political leaders are speaking out in support of the Canadian Jewish community with some notable exceptions - including Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and a few others.  On the other hand - the Prime Minister has been moving Canada's Israel policies closer and closer to those of countries like Ireland, Spain and Norway.  The leader of the NDP, Jagmit Singh, has been spouting all kinds of anti-Israel diatribes.  And for some reason, union leaders across the country  have been  at the forefront of anti-Israeli activism - even though they are much more likely to find common cause with Israelis than with Hamas supporters - on a whole range of issues - from social equality, gender equality, worker rights  - to freedom of expression and other issues.

Toronto's annual Walk for Israel was a bright spot for the Jewish diaspora, with estimates ranging up to 50,000 people attending.  There were counter-protesters - who showed up wearing face masks and keffiyehs. Some of these "protesters" arranged to meet in Jewish neighbourhoods in Toronto and tried to follow participants of the Walk back to their homes. Fortunately, the Toronto police were in full force  and managed to prevent the situation from deteriorating.   There are videos of these interactions - on links provided by the National Post and other publications.

The Mayor of Toronto, Olivia Chow, elected to avoid the event - and instead, she attended a "Grill Cheese Festival" in Etobicoke.  Mayor Chow is not a big supporter of the Toronto Jewish community, to say the least.  And the current Canadian Prime Minister, Trudeau, is probably the least supportive Canadian Prime Minister that we have seen in many  years - perhaps since his late father, Pierre Trudeau.

To change to another positive note - I understand that a group of Toronto lawyers are planning a solidarity trip to Israel in September - and are hoping to have 25-30 participants.  They plan to visit the areas of the October 7, 2023 attacks, meet with politicians, families of hostages, and others.  I could provide a link to further information on request if anyone is interested in attending.

So even though Israelis living in Canada and other members of the Jewish community are being threatened all over the country (and in many places around the world), there are some positive and hopeful events.   

I cannot say that things look that positive from here right now but I don't think we have any choice but to do whatever we can to try and improve things - to hope that there is some sort of feasible, peaceful solution that can be reached and that we can restore things soon to some level of sanity.  All while sharing information with people about what is really going on here. 

With that, I wish everyone all the best and welcome any comments or thoughts you might have.