Is Renewed Fighting Between Iran and Israel Likely? And Some Israeli Election News

Is Renewed Fighting Between Iran and Israel Likely?

This will probably be my last blog for the summer but I expect that I will have a thing or two to write in September and October as we near Israel's election on October 27, 2026.

These days, we have been on eggshells - or shpilkes if you prefer, waiting to see what will develop in the current war.  As you might know, President Trump has been threatening to launch massive attacks against Iran to try and pressure Iran into making significant concessions (or perhaps, more correctly, any concessions) towards some kind of cease fire deal.  According to various Israeli reports, a major attack was planned for Friday night (July 24, 2026). At the last minute, apparently under pressure from Vice President Vance and others, including military commanders and advisors, Trump cancelled the attacks.

I would say that the mood in Israel seems very mixed.  On the one hand, there is a feeling in Israel that the first round of fighting with Iran (or perhaps, more accurately, the second or third rounds) ended prematurely with what was more or less a U.S. surrender.  None of the U.S.' war objectives were achieved - and the same can be said for Israel.  The Iranians do not appear to have made many, if any, concessions.  In fact, Iran has emerged from the war with  some level of control over the Hormuz Strait, something it did have going into the  war.  Iran still has its nuclear program intact, still has its network of proxies in place including the Houthies in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other allies in Iraq, Gaza and other places.  And Iran is continuing to rebuild its missile program and  capabilities.  The same leadership is running the country even if it is now either Khomenai's son Mojtaba, or some unnamed IRGC leaders.  Overall, by any objective measure, this war can only be characterized as a massive defeat for the U.S. and Israel, even though both countries claim to have caused significant damage to Iranian infrastructure and military capabilities.  By any measure, a war that ends with a country in a better geopolitical position than it was before the war started can only be defined as a victory for that country.  Iran's control of the Hormuz straits and the list of terms that are being negotiated with the U.S. bears no resemblance whatsoever to a U.S. victory.

As a result, many Israelis are certainly of the view that only a series of massive U.S.  attacks might move the Iranian regime to make more concessions and give the U.S. (and Israel) some type of victory or at least some demonstrable gain from the war. Of course, that could backfire - and Iran could continue resisting - and perhaps emerge with even further gains.  From the Israeli point of view, the risk is worth taking - and certainly Prime Minister Netanyahu is anxiously waiting, if not begging Trump, for the attacks to resume.

On the other hand, any major renewed attacks on Iran will almost certainly bring an array of missile attacks to Israel, which will affect Israel's economy, cause the loss of life, shut down the airports and put Israelis in and out of shelters for several days if not weeks.  From various reports that I heard and the "mood on the street," my view is that a majority of Israelis are willing to risk all of that.  They seem to feel that there is a unique opportunity now to do something about the current Iranian regime - and that the combination of having Trump in the White House, having a weakened Iranian leadership and a weakened network of proxies, all  makes this an ideal time to try and "finish the  job" (whatever that might mean).

That being said, I think Israelis underestimate the domestic and  international pressure that Trump is facing - as well as the limitations on his freedom of  action due to deals or understandings with a variety of countries including Qatar, Russia and others.  On Friday, it certainly seemed that this war was going to ramp up at any time in a big way.  Late Friday, Trump announced that the U.S. would not be proceeding with further attacks - and even ceased the types of attacks that the U.S. had been carrying out for the preceding 11 days. Now, I am starting to become less convinced (even though Trump might be bluffing with his announcement that he will not be attacking). 

The manner in which the previous round of fighting ended is indicative that Trump's "bark is worse than his bite" and the Iranians probably have a very good understanding of that now.  If things end the way they are now, the end result from the U.S. - Iranian conflict will have been a weakened perception of the U.S. Military, a stronger and more confident Iran, a weakening of the U.S. -Israel relationship and, most likely, a renewed determination by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.  

All of this is disastrous for Prime Minister Netanyahu  who was hoping that he would have some kind of victory to flout from this war. Unfortunately for him, at this point, there is no good news to report, even though he will attempt to spin the war in various directions to support his bid for another re-election.  Netanyahu would, of course, happily pay the price that Israelis would bear of renewed fighting with Iran, in a bid to bolster his election chances - and with the hope that the U.S. and Israel would be  able to realize some gains from renewed hostilities.  The worst case outcome for Netanyahu would be several Iranian missiles hitting Israel and another "truce" that leaves things in more or less the same state that they are in currently.  Netanyahu's calculation would be that all of this would leave him in a position that is no worse than where he is currently (politically) - so, effectively, "why not?"

Trump's calculation is quite a bit different, especially with upcoming U.S. midterms.  Although Trump is happy to claim victory at every opportunity, he and his advisors are probably quite cognizant that being embroiled in a protracted war with Iran - without the prospect of realizing significant military and political gains from that war - could well be disastrous for the Republicans at the polling booths in November, especially if the price of gasoline continues to rise.

Several International airlines announced that they were cancelling flights to Israel over the weekend - so I don't think we are out of the woods yet in terms of a possible renewal of fighting.  And of course Trump is very unpredictable.  But overall, there seems to be an emerging likelihood that  another major U.S. or U.S./Israeli attack on Iran is not in the cards.  I guess we will have to wait and see.  

On a very  personal note, it is looking more likely that upcoming flights this week will proceed as scheduled and that any decision to renew fighting may be postponed by several days if not weeks.

Preliminary Election News

The "Democrats" (the Israeli version) - which is an amalgamation of the old Labour Party (a party with a traditionally socialist worker bent) and the old Meretz  party (a far left party with a libertarian bent - at least on state vs religion issues) held its "primaries" and assembled a list of candidates based on the voting results of more than 100,000 Israelis.  The slate includes religious and secular candidates, Arab Israeli candidates and many  familiar faces.  The "Democrats" are currently the only Jewish majority party in Israel that  does not describe itself as being "right wing" or "centre-right."  They are currently  polling at an estimate of between 9 and 11 seats - and could play a big role in any future government if it is government that not led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The other party that has traditionally held wide-ranging primaries has been the Likud party - which usually winds up with hundreds of thousands of Israelis voting to set the "list" in place - with numbers ranging from 1 to 50 or so for possible positions that Likud party members could be in after voting results.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has been particularly worried this year about these primaries, fearing the possibility that some dissenting voices would wind up in high ranked positions and make life difficult for him.  

So he floated various ideas to address this situation.  First he asked the Likud party (which has a governing body) to cancel the primaries due to "unique circumstances" and allow a panel (that he would hand pick of course) to simply select the full slate of candidates.  After this was rejected, he asked for the right to nominate 20 "hand-picked" candidates that would be strategically placed in the top 40.  Then he went down to asking for 15.  This back and forth continued until he came to a deal with the Likud party that he could nominate 8 candidates, placed in designated positions in the top 30.  However, the Party also agreed that if "security considerations" warrant, Netanyahu could cancel the primaries and use a committee to pick all of the candidates.

Internally, Likud party members challenged this agreement and went to the Likud Court - an internal decision making tribunal - which ruled that the primaries could not cancelled.  The court held that even if there was a serious security situation, there were alternatives including electronic voting etc.,  Overall, this was a significant and embarrassing defeat for Netanyahu, within his own party.  He cannot blame the "deep state," the "leftist Israeli Supreme Court" or some of the other non-Likud candidates.  

The result is that Netanyahu may wind up with a a range of candidates who are prepared to challenge his leadership and/or his decisions - even if they do not do so in a public way initially.   The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026 and that should be fascinating.  

Polling results are released almost daily in Israel.  Looking at a range of polls, it seems to be a close race between the Yashar Party (led by Gadi  Eisenkot) and  Likud led by Netanyahu for the highest number of votes with both parties in the range of 20 to 25  predicted seats.  

For  building a coalition the predications are currently that the opposition could get between 57 and 62 seats and Netanyahu's government could get between 48 and 55.  Parties seeking to form a government need  to be able to present a coalition agreement with 61 seats.  So unless there is a shift, we could be facing some type of stalemate.  (We have been there before).  That being said, there is lots of time between now and election day and things could change drastically.

Other Comments

I have no sports news to report - since the only thing going on that interests me currently is baseball and the Toronto Blue Jays are having a terrible season. (Sorry if I offended anyone who is glued to the TV watching some other sports). NFL and NHL will be starting soon and in December 2026, there will be a draw for 2028 Euros - and hopefully Israel will have a chance of making it.

This is probably all for the best as we can all get outside and enjoy the summer weather, as long as it is not 40c plus.

I updated my index for this blog (Index is hyperlinked).  Over the years, I have now written about 350 blog articles.  You can use the index to go back and read all of the articles that you missed....

As usual, you can feel free to send this to anyone who you think might be interested - and they can email me at rananareveller@gmail.com if they would like to be added to the list.  Or you can email me and just say "remove" if you want to be removed from the current list.

You can also feel free to write back with your comments, preferably constructive, though I am happy to engage with a wide variety of viewpoints. 

Enjoy the summer weather. Hope to see many of you soon!

On the Edge of Another Major War with Iran? And Tisha B'Av 5786 (2026)

I am writing this on Friday afternoon, June 24, 2026.  According to many different indicators, there is a strong likelihood that Trump will make a decision to have U.S. forces launch a massive attack on Iran at any time.

Although no one knows for sure what will take place and Trump could be bluffing to try and get the Iranians to agree to some kind of deal - reports from the Israeli press have indicated that the Iranians have rejected any kind of deal proposed by the U.S. or the mediators at this point in time - and the gap between the U.S. and Iran is simply too wide to close.

In Israel, various news commentators have been speculating that an attack could come at any time, with many almost predicting that it will be tonight or tomorrow sometime.  

Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel if the U.S. crosses certain Iranian "red lines."  Just as it is unclear whether Trump will actually commence broad attacks against Iran, it is equally unclear whether Iran will decide to bring Israel into the conflict now.  However, if Iran does attack Israel, it is almost certain that Israel will respond with significant force.

Another possibility is that Trump will ask Israel to participate in some type of massive attack that he would like to carry out against Iran.  Israel would almost certainly say yes to any such request by Trump.  However, I think it is more likely that Trump would like to show that the U.S. can carry out these attacks on its own without Israel and will only involve Israel if Iran draws Israel into the conflict.

One report indicated that Israeli hospitals across the country have been told to be on their highest alert levels and to be prepared to move all operations underground on short notice. Some Israeli officials denied that this order was given.

I guess we will find out soon enough. We are scheduled to leave Israel on July 28th (completely unrelated to anything going on) for a few weeks.  I guess we will see soon enough if we are actually able to leave.  In short, we have had to prepare the "safe room" in our home and we are definitely facing the possibility of a stressful period of time.

Tisha B'Av 5786  תשפ"ו

We had a very meaningful Tisha B'Av.  We joined the Masorti Israel movement (affiliated with the Conservative Jewish movement) for a program along with more than 100 participants from across Israel.  We travelled from Ra'anana to Jerusalem and began the program with a tour of the tunnels behind the Kotel (the Western Wall).  The available tours are constantly changing as different sections open up and new finds are discovered or developed.

If you have never been to these tunnels, I would say that it is one of the most interesting things to do in Israel.  The tours give you access to a picture of how the two great Temples were when they were active in Jerusalem and the vibrancy of Jewish life at the time centred around these Temples.

The tours also provide a great deal of information about what happened to Jerusalem after the destruction of the second Temple in the year 70 CE.  There is even a full model of the Temple area that can be changed with the press of a button to show how it looked at different periods of time.  It helped that we had a terrific tour guide who was knowledgeable, energetic and engaging.  (No, it wasn't our family member, though I suppose it could have been...)

After the tunnel tours, we had tefillah (Minhah) and then a pre-fast dinner of "deconstructed Sabich" - which is basically hard boiled eggs, fried eggplant, salad, humus, tehina and "amba" (pickled mango sauce - slightly spicy). The deconstructed means that you can decide if you want to make it in a pita (the way it is usually served) or if you would rather go with the low carb option and skip the pita.  Sabich is sometimes called the "poor person's falafel" in Israel - since it is often about half the cost of a falafel and is a less substantial meal.

Our meal was followed by Maariv, the reading of Eichah (the book of Lamentations), and a lecture from Professor Doron Bar, author of a book about the history of the Western Wall. These events were interspersed with the group singing and reading some modern Kinot and  singing songs about Jerusalem, as the sun set and the stars emerged, overlooking the golden beauty of Jerusalem.  We were joined in time for the start of Eichah by several hundred Ramah seminar students, some of  whom read parts of Eichah.  Our evening concluded with three panelists discussing different visions of unity and challenges to modern day Israel.  Overall, it was a terrific program.

Tisha B'Av is a fast day in Israel (no food or water for about 24.5 hours).  At the same time, work and travel are permitted unlike other "Holy Days" - like Yom Kippur for example.  Everything is closed on Erev Tisha B'Av in most parts of Israel - but many shops, including many restaurants, actually open up on Tisha B'Av during the day.  

In any case, the fast ended at about 8:30 p.m. (I went with bagels, cream cheese and lox - one of our usual fast-break options).  And we are now ready for Shabbat Nachamu - the Shabbat that is intended to comfort us after Tisha B'Av.

Tehran

We are a bit late in getting to Season 3 of Tehran - we still had not finished watching Season 2 - but recently we had the chance to sit down and watch several episodes - even if that meant keeping really crazy hours.  We thought it was riveting. We still have one episode left - the final episode of season 3 - and we understand that a fourth season is being filmed.  

Tehran is a spy thriller about an Israeli agent, operating in Iran, working to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  At times, it seems somewhat unrealistic, I suppose, but considering what we have heard about Israeli operations, it is probably not too far off from reality.

For us, it was highly compelling and worth seeing. I would say that Season 3 was probably better than season 1 - and a close call with Season 2 as to which was better.  

Once we finish - we will have to start watching the newest season of Fauda (season 5 I think) - so don't spoil anything if you have watched these shows.

Election News

As you know the Israeli election is scheduled for October 27, 2026.

Party slates are still not absolutely finalized and there may still be some surprises.

The news this week was an attack ad that Netanyahu used.  The ad showed Gadi Eisenkot (leader of the Yashar party - right now Likud's strongest opposition) running towards a soldier in a uniform. The ad was generated by AI. At the last minute, the ad shows Eisenkot turning away from the soldier and embracing the Arab party (Ra'am) leader Monsour Abbas.  

One of the big criticisms was that Eisenkot had lost his son in the recent  Gaza war. Many viewers felt that the soldier depicted looked very much like Eisenkot's son and that this ad was therefore very inappropriate.

Likud did not apologize for or withdraw the ad.  However, they published a second version one day later, using a female soldier instead of a male soldier -  but with the same content.

Public reaction to the ad was apparently very swift and polls taken after the release of the ad, showed Netanyahu's party losing between 1 and 2 seats to Eisenkot (though that amount may be statistically insignificant).

In any case, still lots of time until the election, lots of ads to be released - and lots of animosity I suspect  - despite the message of Tisha B'Av that urges the people of Israel to find a way to avoid "baseless hatred."

I am sure that I will have lots more to say about the coming elections over the coming three month period.  

I wish everyone a shabbat shalom - and look forward to seeing many of you in Toronto or elsewhere in the coming weeks.

Government's Legislative Term Ends in Israel - Let the Cheering for Messi Begin!

Messi at the Kotel in 2013

The government of Israel officially concluded its last parliamentary session on Friday July 17, 2026 - and it can only be described as a debacle.  The governing coalition spent its last two weeks of legislative session pushing through, at lightning speed, several pieces of outrageous legislation - in an effort to shore up ultra-orthodox support for the coming election.

The first bill was the Bill to enshrine "Torah Study"  as a fundamental value in Israel's basic law.  Now of course, I have nothing against Torah Study, nor do most Israelis, many of whom engage in Torah study in all different ways.  But the goal here, was to define Torah Study as type of right - that allows a person to use it to reject other obligations or laws.  The Ultra-Orthodox in Israel plan to use the law, essentially - to say "we can't serve in the army because we are engaging in "Torah Study" and that is a supreme right of ours that trumps other obligations and duties. Of  course, it is also unclear what constitutes "Torah Study" and who might be able to use this - and for what purposes.  But this was the "easy" bill - the first one.

Next came the bill to suspend all sanctions against ultra-Orthodox draft evaders.  Not "all draft evaders" - just "Ultra Orthodox draft evaders" -  until November 30, 2026, one month  after the election, presumably giving Netanyahu and his coalition the time to win the election and enact a permanent draft evasion bill.  Based on an urgent injunction brought by Yesh Atid, the Supreme Court of Israel immediately froze this bill, as an interim measure, given that it was likely to be found unconstitutional in a full Supreme Court hearing.  The bill is simply indefensible other than as an effort by Netanyahu to buy the support of the ultra-religious parties  in the coming election.  

The third bill was the bill to weaken the powers of the office of the Attorney General, who is generally appointed to be an independent watchdog of the government.  The bill gives the government the legal authority to disregard the advice and recommendations of the AG.  Until now, these opinions had been treated as binding on the Executive Branch.  In other words, if the government obtains the opinion of the AG about a potential law - and the AG advises that it is likely to be illegal, Israeli law has normally required the government to follow that advice.  Under the current  legislation, the Government can  simply ignore the AG. It is noteworthy - that the sitting AG has made certain recommendations with respect to Netanyahu's current criminal charges.  With this bill, the government could potentially ignore those recommendations and cut a deal with Netanyahu to let him off the hook from his criminal charges.

The fourth bill was the bill to grant the government extensive additional control over the Israeli broadcasting industry - including certain content control.  The government would have the power to appoint the "oversight committee." This is a dangerous step towards state control over a large chunk of the media. The Supreme Court today (Sunday July 19, 2026) froze parts of this bill on an interim basis pending a full hearing.

The Israeli government also enacted a bill extending mandatory military service from 30 to 32 months for Israelis who report to duty under Israel's mandatory draft laws, even while making it easier for the ultra-orthodox to avoid the draft altogether.

The government also passed a bill strengthening the monopoly of the ultra-orthodox over Kashrut - which was intended to undo legislation enacted by the previous Bennett government.  This would affect organizations like Tzohar -  an Orthodox institution which has been trying to demonopolize Kashrut in Israel - even while continuing to adhere to all recognized standards of Kashrut. The difference is that the monopolization -  gives the  ultra-orthodox and their political parties - the right to appoint Mashgichim (Kashrut supervisors) and exert financial control over the Kashrut industry.  

On Friday, the government passed a bill allowing for gender segregated classes in Israel's state funded universities. This was their final bill - the "piece de resistance."  

Aside from these measures, the government also hurried through spending bills to be able to immediately transfer hundreds of millions of shekels - primarily to the  ultra-orthodox and to new developments in Judea and  Samaria (the disputed territories).  At the same time, the government sent a bill to assist wounded military veterans "to a committee for study" and turned down other measures proposed by opposition.

Certainly, the ultra-orthodox coalition partners are happy with these laws but I can't believe that even most Likud supporters are prepared to support this agenda.  In fact, the early polls are already suggesting that Likud is losing polling momentum as a result of passing these laws.  This legislative blitz may well wind up costing Netanyahu the election - if enough people are sufficiently upset about these laws.

Polls suggest that the opposition party led by Gadi Eisenkot - Yashar - has made significant inroads and may well be in a position to form a government.  Of course, there are still three months of campaigning remaining and these are only polling results.

The Israeli Supreme Court has already frozen some of this legislation on an interim basis and may well strike down more  of these enactments but the message has been sent by Netanyahu loud and clear - if he and his coalition partners are elected again, this country will begin to look more and more like Turkiye - or perhaps even Iran.  

Netanyahu and his coalition partners are also running against the Israeli Supreme Court.  In the past, Netanyahu campaigned on the promise that the Supreme Court was untouchable and he would always support and abide by its judgments as the ultimate arbiter of law in Israel.  Since his criminal trial began, he has switched tactics and has campaigned actively using the argument that Supreme Court has too much power, is part of the deep state, is too liberal etc.,  This government was the first in Israel's history to snub the chief justice of the Supreme Court and to state openly that it would refuse to abide by decisions of the Court.  If this coalition is able to form another government, the Israeli Supreme Court will face new and unprecedented challenges.

Israel is at a major crossroads.  After what can probably be described as one of the most, if not the most, extreme and anti-egalitarian weeks of legislation in Israel's 78 years history, it is clear that there is a great urgency for the anti-Bibi side  of the electorate to get out, mobilize votes and try to convince other Israelis that Israel would be better off as a democratic, more pro-egalitarian state.  Hopefully it is not too late.

Another four years of a government with this type of make up - including ultra-orthodox and right wing extremist politicians would have a disastrous effect on the country - and would almost certainly result in a significant exodus of educated and more liberal voters and perhaps many corporations.

Fortunately, from early polls - that are still three months away from the  election - the anti-government coalition bloc appears to be picking up steam.  If elected, it could have the ability to reverse much of the damage that has been done - and make changes that would benefit all segments of Israeli society.

War Drums

The war between the U.S. and Iran has really heated up over the past few days.  The U.S. has been ramping up its attacks and the Iranians have shown no sign of seeking any kind of deal (at least not publicly). It almost seems like the U.S. put the war on a low burner until the FIFA World Cup could end (it ends today) and then go full throttle to try and wring some concessions out of Iran.

Iran has responded by attacking a wide range of countries around it - including the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain and others.  So far, Iran has not attacked Israel in this around, though the country is certainly on high alert.

Netanyahu seems poised and ready to have the Israeli army jump in and begin another round with Iran.  He has already floated the idea that because of the security situation, he may have to cancel the Likud Primaries (the Likud party uses a primary voting system to determine the ranking of its different candidates in the election.  Since Israel uses a proportionate representation system - parties get one set for approximately each .833 % of the vote (roughly 35-40,000 votes) though there is a minimum  of 3.5% - i.e. a 4 seat minimum).  The Likud primaries are scheduled for August 17, 2026.

Netanyahu would rather skip these primaries and simply appoint Likud candidates in order which would give him greater control over the party.  He is concerned that some dissonant voices within his party will win high rankings in the primaries and he will have to work with a group of less pliable party members. But Netanyahu has claimed that this could be necessary - because of the security situation with Iran. I note that Netanyahu spent the last two weeks fighting over how many reserved prerogative seats he should be able to appoint in the top 40.  Initially, he was demanding the right to appoint 15 of the top 40 but eventually came to a deal with the party to be able to appoint 8 of the top 30 - with 6 of them in the first 20.  He has not yet announced who will be on his list.

Israelis are also concerned that if Netanyahu can successfully cancel the primaries - he may then move to finding a way to "postpone" the coming elections scheduled for October 27, 2026.  So far, he has not floated anything like that - and I think it is unlikely that he will even try it.  But the prospects of a full on war with Iran - and the security problems that will create for Israel - may well lead to Netanyahu exploring options.

Meanwhile, as the attacks from Iran get closer and closer to Israel (and Jordan, is after all, a neighbour of ours, and is being attacked by Iran), it is become increasingly likely that Israel will be directly involved in this round of war with Iran very soon.

Flying in and Out of Israel

As I have mentioned in just about every recent blog, it is extremely difficult to find decent flights in and out of Israel these days.  For our next flight, we will be flying to Toronto via Lisbon - with a stop on the way  in Athens.  

El Al is the most reliable way to leave Israel currently, but if you haven't booked a flight months in advance the prices are outrageous.

Air France, Aegean, Lot Polish, Emirates are among the foreign carriers flying currently, along with some smaller Israeli carriers like Arkia, Israir, Tus Airways and Blue Bird.  Many of the smaller airlines have baggage restrictions are like flying North American budget airlines. 

One of the issues now is that the U.S. government has asked Israel for permission to use a significant amount of Ben Gurion's capacity for refuelling planes and other aircraft.  Israel has tried offering the U.S. other military airports but the U.S. has been insistent on using Ben Gurion. This has been another reason for the lack of available commercial flights.

As for Air Canada - while it is scheduled to start flying again to Israel on October 25, 2026, this seems unlikely to me.  I certainly would not recommend booking an Air Canada flight between Toronto and  Israel any time soon.

Sports

Of course the only sport to write about on July 19, 2026 is football (soccer) - and the FIFA World  Cup.  In Israel - I think this is probably as big as the Super Bowl - Israelis are all talking about watching parties, bars and pubs are expected to be overflowing across the country and there is a palpable sense of excitement. Football is definitely the most popular spectator sport in Israel - basketball is a distant second.

The vast majority of Israelis (as far as I can tell anecdotally) seem to be cheering for Argentina to beat Spain. One reason is that Israel's relationship with Argentina is so much better than its relationship with Spain. Spain has become one of the world's loudest anti-Israel voices - joined by Ireland, Slovenia, the Netherlands and unfortunately, the current Canadian government. (As well, of course, as many of the Arab countries). By way of contrast, the current Argentinian government, led by President Javier Milei, has been a vocal supporter of Israel. That has not been lost on Israeli football fans.

The other reason - is that Israelis love watching Messi (who doesn't?) and are hoping he can, with a World Cup win, secure his place as the GOAT.  He needs two goals tonight to win the Golden Boot award for most goals in the tournament. That will not be easy against the strong Spanish defence - but even if he does not score any goals - it should be a fun game.

Tisha B'Av

I am planning to be at the Kotel this week on Wednesday night to mark the commemoration of the destruction of Israel's two great temples (the first in 586 bcc, the second in 70 cc). I think it might be the first time I will have been in Jerusalem on Erev Tisha B'Av.  When the kids were younger, we would generally go to Yad Vashem (the Holocaust Memorial Museum) during the day of Tisha B'Av.  We may wind up doing that this year as well.

Many observant Jews mark the nine days leading up to Tisha B'Av as a period of mourning in which they do not eat meat, though they do eat fish.  Generally, Sephardic Jewish and other Jews of eastern origins  - including Yemenite Jews do not observe this period as rigorously - particularly the food  restrictions. Since Israel has a mixture of Jews from countries all over the world, it is definitely less common here to see Kosher restaurants using a no-meat menu. Some restaurants will offer specials, including fish deals.

Even among Jews who do observe, many agree that it is still permissible, even desirable to eat meat on Shabbat.  For many people these days, who tend to minimize meat meals during the week, for health reasons and not religious ones - and eat meat only once or twice a week - the observance of the nine days leading up to Tisha B'av, with the Shabbat exception, may not even change their eating patterns.

Tisha B'Av, like other Jewish fast days, means about 24.5 hours of no food, water or anything else. This year the fast starts at 745 p.m. Wednesday night and ends at 8:17 p.m. on Thursday night. Unlike many other Jewish holydays, observant Jews can travel, do necessary work and use electricity.  But it is still a long day...even if you are fasting in an air conditioned place while it is in the mid-30s outside.

Weather

It is hot in Israel, for sure, and will only get hotter over the next two months.  But this year, it sounds like it has been even hotter in the U.S. and Canada -  with temperatures reportedly reaching 41c in Toronto last week.   I can't remember when Israelis were last told to "stay in the house and not go outside" (other than during a war or an epidemic) but that was apparently the case last week in Toronto.  Here we were able to go for a walk along the beach, near sundown when it had cooled down somewhat. The humidity was a lot lower than the humidity levels during Toronto summers. I guess I will be able to compare shortly.

We take it for granted being only 10-15 minutes' drive from the beach though we really don't wind up going that often.  My office in Toronto is right near an outdoor skating facility - and every year - I say that I will skate more often at lunch - but somehow it just doesn't seem to happen.  Perhaps its the same thing with the beach here.

Wishing everyone peaceful times - and if you are fasting this week - a meaningful fast.  

Israeli Elections Are Coming - October 27, 2026

Israeli Elections Are Coming - October 27, 2026

The official date has been set for the next Israeli elections.  The voting will be conducted on October 27, 2026, which is a full four years from the date of the last Israeli elections - a complete term.  As you probably know, Israel's parliamentary system is a parliamentary democracy - similar to Canada or the UK  Unlike Canada and UK, there are no ridings or districts - all of the Knesset seats are based on the results of the popular vote.  The party that can patch together a majority of the Knesset (61 out of 120 seats) gets to govern for as long as they can keep their coalition together up to a maximum of exactly four years. Unlike Canada, they actually have to have formal coalition agreements in place to be able to exercise the powers of a government.  

Many Israeli governments have dissolved well before the end of their maximum terms.  Mostly, it is because the  coalition system requires back and forth compromises.  Usually, in Israeli politics, some of the parties in the coalition become upset with the deals that they made at some point - or claim that the government is not living up to the terms - and they pull the plug on the coalition and cause an election to take place earlier. Very few Israeli governments have actually lasted the full term.

This particular government was made up of the Likud (Netanyahu's party), two ultra-religious parties, and two far right nationalist parties.  Quite simply, if any of the constituent parties had pulled the plug earlier, they may have found themselves in a much worse position politically. Essentially, this meant that the coalition in power wanted to keep the government together as long as possible to be able to enact whatever legislation they could while still being able to do so.

Now that the election has been set for October 27, 2026, the governing coalition is in a frenzy.  They are running out of time to pass all of the wonderful legislation that they had hoped to pass - so they are desperately throwing around new bills and hoping that they can somehow get them through the Knesset before dissolution - which is this coming Thursday - July 16, 2026.

What  kinds of laws?  The law declaring the "Study of Torah" to be part of the Basic Law (the closest thing Israel has to a constitution) of the State of Israel, which the ultra-religious are hoping they can use to avoid the military draft.  The "Draft Dodger Immunity Bill" to grant a period of immunity of 90 days for those who are arrested for avoiding military draft.  The Kosher Protection Law seeking to bolster  the monopoly of the ultra-religious over the Kosher certification process in Israel and reverse the previous partial de-monopolization enacted by the Bennett government. The "Media Overhaul bill" - to give the government greater control over broadcast media and news sites.  The "AG Power Reduction Bill" - to limit the power of Israel's Attorney General and state that the opinions of the AG will no longer be binding.  The "Oct 7th Inquiry Bill"  - to set up a "political" state inquiry rather than an objective national inquiry into the events of October 7, 2023. Some of the names of these bills maybe be packaged up and given more palatable names - but this is a partial list of the collection of dangerous legislation that this government is seeking to enshrine on its way out the  door.  I guess it remains to be seen how much of it will actually pass. Some of these bills are likely to be viewed as unacceptable even by Likud stalwarts - which might mean that the governing coalition may not be able to pass them - even  with a majority.  Netanyahu is likely to pull out all of the stops for those bills that he views as important - and pressure his MKs in every which way - but he is unlikely to do that for the whole panoply of legislative initiatives.

If Netanyahu is actually defeated at some point, the likely first order of business of just about any new alternate  government would be to overturn all of these pieces of legislation immediately.

The Political Landscape

As of the time of writing this blog, a new Israeli party is gathering support  - and showing up in the polls as tied with or ahead of Netanyahu's party - the Likud Party. Gadi Eisenkot's party "Yashar" (Straightforward/ honest) is gaining significant momentum. Eisenkot is a former Chief of Staff of the  Israeli army. One of his sons was killed in the recent Gaza war.  Eisenkot is viewed as much more of a centrist than Netanyahu and is likely to build a coalition with the various opposition parties if he winds up with enough seats to do so.

Naftali Bennett is leading the next most popular opposition party, which is a combination of Bennett's party and Yair Lapid's party and is called "Together."  Bennett served as Israel's Prime Minister from 2021 to 2022 - with a diverse coalition of parties from across the political spectrum including an Arab party. Bennett himself is perceived as centre-right - if  not hard right - and many of his voters seem unhappy that he has joined an official coalition with Lapid, who is viewed as further to the left - though still quite a centrist.

Based on current polls, the opposition parties are expected to win somewhere between 55 and 58 seats, though quite a lot could change between now and October 27, 2026.  That would still put them 3 to 6 seats short of a government.

On the other hand, Netanyahu's coalition seems to be running at between 50 and 55 seats, which put them at between 6 and 11 seats short. 

So we could have a stalemate, as we did on a number of occasions before the 2022 election, which could lead to a few elections in a row - until one side or the other can form a government.

Stay tuned - lots of fascinating political news is likely to come out of Israel in the coming months.

Sports

I know some of you skip over my sports updates - but I like to include them anyways.

Israel's Under 20 women's basketball team made it to the finals in Europe for the first time ever.  They lost last night - 79-66 to France but still secured a silver medal - which was the first medal that an Israeli national women's team has ever won in basketball.  

As you know, the FIFA World Cup is into its last week - with the finals scheduled for Sunday July 19th.  Although I am not normally a huge football/soccer fan, I have been watching the World Cup for many years.  In 1986, I travelled through Europe with a friend of mine - and there were TVs set up everywhere - in train stations, restaurants, all kind of public places.  We watched a fair bit then - and really since that time - I have always enjoyed the World Cup.

FIFA is plagued with anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiments.  After Argentina beat Egypt on July 7th, the Egyptian coach had a tantrum, claiming that it was a conspiracy against Egypt.  Supporters went further blaming the world wide Jewish conspiracy (whatever that is) for their loss.  They claimed that since Messi has actually visited Israel and the Kotel (the Western Wall), Argentina is being "helped" by FIFA which is being controlled by the Jews. Does it get any more far fetched? 

The Swiss also lost to Argentina and were also unhappy with the officiating.  So far, I haven't heard them blame the Jews though they have claimed that there is a bias towards Argentina and Messi (who happens to bring in billions of viewers).  I guess we will see what happens on Wednesday when England plays Argentina.  Given that many consider Messi the GOAT, it is quite conceivable that he will carry Argentina to victory over England - with or without the help of the "worldwide Jewish conspiracy."

Irrespective, Israelis are definitely glued to their TVs across the country when World Cup soccer matches are on.  I can only imagine how crazy it would be if Israel were to make it to the World Cup again.  It is very difficult for Israel to do so, since Israel has to compete against European teams. The Asian and  Middle Eastern teams - who should be Israel's competition - refuse to play against Israel.  This includes many teams that made it this year - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Qatar, Jordan and others. If Israel had been able to compete in this group for its chance at a berth, it is likely that Israel would have been in the World Cup. Maybe one day.

Travel to Israel

Travel to Israel is still quite difficult, especially during high season in summer.

El Al is still flying direct from the U.S. and many places in Europe but tickets are hard to find and the prices are insane. Some budget airlines like Wizz Air, Blue Bird, Israir, Arkia and others are also flying but, let's just say, it is not very much fun to fly on those airlines.  We wound up taking EasyJet from London to Crete - and then Aegean from Crete to Tel-Aviv.  That was not ideal but there was simply nothing available.

Crete is a very nice place to visit but very little remains of any kind of Jewish life or history there.  There is a Chabad in Chania that will provide Kosher meals on order and hosts a Friday night dinner.  We did not make it there. But so many restaurants in Crete have vegetarian and pescetarian options that it was quite easy for us to eat there.

Air Canada is scheduled to restart its flights in late October - but I will believe it when I see it. Apparently, Lufthansa, Austrian and Swiss all restarted service effective July 1, 2026 but I can't verify that. Air France is apparently also flying  several times a week now, as are Etihad and Emirates.

If you are planning a visit to Israel - you are probably best off to book El Al from somewhere in Europe - Rome, Athens or Frankfurt - and to connect to that place on another airline.  If you buy El Al tickets far enough in advance, the prices can be moderate to reasonable and you are almost assured that you will get here.  With any of the other airlines - it is really up in the air as to whether they will actually fly on any particular date in the future.

War Resumption?

As you probably know, the U.S. and Iran are still fighting, primarily over the Hormuz Strait at this point. I think the pattern goes like this - Iran attacks commercial boats in the Hormuz, the U.S. responds by attacking targets in Iran, particularly around port cities - and Iran then responds by sending  drone attacks to neighbouring gulf states.  So far, Iran has not attacked Israel directly, though Israel is certainly on high alert.  Although most Israelis seem to be going about their business, there is unquestionably some concern that this whole thing could ignite at any time.

Israel is still involved in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah even while trying to negotiate a peace deal with Lebanon (which would include  ensuring that the Lebanese army controls its borders and disarms Hezbollah) and is still involved in fighting in Gaza.

It is hard to see how or when these various conflicts will come to a close.

Qatar

We watched a riveting Israeli documentary on Qatar called "Enemies" produced by Israel's channel 11, somewhat equivalent to a PBS in the U.S., though channel 11 receives state funding.  The program traced Qatar's funding of Hamas since 2018 - pursuant to an agreement with Netanyahu - whereby Qatar would send money, briefcases full of cash, to Gaza under the guise of "humanitarian assistance."  The program claimed that Netanyahu knew that Hamas was using the money to build tunnels under Gaza.

The program documented how Qatar's leadership, led by Sheikhah Hormoza (Moza bint Nasser), has paid off lawmakers in the U.S. and Israel to allow Qatar to develop its agenda. This has also included donating enormous amounts of money to U.S. colleges in exchange for influence as well as outright bribes of government officials.  

The donation of an airplane by Qatar to the U.S. to be used as the new Air Force One plane is only one example of outright bribery - out in the open.  How could the U.S. government accept this type of gift from anyone?  What did the U.S.  give Qatar in exchange? 

Ultimately, the documentary claimed that it was clear that Qatar knew about and helped Hamas to plan the October 7, 2023 attacks and massacres in Israel.  The day after the attacks, on October 8, 2023, Netanyahu sent Yossi Cohen  (former head of the Israeli Mossad) to Qatar. Rather than threaten the Qataris and  demand the immediate release of all of the hostages - or risk an attack on Qatar - Cohen transferred a warm note of greetings to Sheikah Hermoza. In fact, pro-Hamas demonstrations began at campuses all across the U.S. on October 8, 2023, just after the attacks - and before Israel had responded in any way.

The program suggested that Qatar was acting as both the arsonists and the firefighters at the same time. Only when Israel conducted an assassination attempt in Doha on the leadership of Hamas, Qatar showed a willingness to trade some of its support for Hamas for better security arrangements with the United States.

All in all, this was a frightening program. It is even more frightening  knowing that Netanyahu had some of his close confidants working for the Qatari government, some of whom have now become the focus of a police investigation and  charges.  The conclusion of the program was that Qatar has been willing to pay so much money to support its goals - that it can buy off just about anyone. 

Conclusion

Despite all of the "heavy" political news, the weather is beautiful in Israel and Israelis are flocking to the beach.  

It will be Tisha B'Av next week on July 22nd (at night) and  July 23, which is one of the saddest days of the year, where we commemorate the destruction of the great Temples in Jerusalem.  I am planning to attend an evening program in Jerusalem including lectures, prayer and singing with the Masorti movement at the Kotel (I assume the Davidson Centre section).

On August 20, 2026, the Jerusalem wine festival is scheduled to start at the Israel Museum. This is a wonderful event with the opportunity to taste many different Israeli wines - while enjoying a view of the city and some amazing Jerusalem summer weather - it cools down nicely in the evening.

I hope that we will be back from Toronto in time to attend - for one of the nights.

There is lots more to write - but I think this is about it for now.  I will wish everyone the best and hope to add more shortly - hopefully with more humour next time. Best regards.