1. Update
As you probably know, Israel and the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iran early Saturday morning, Feb 28, Israel time (about 8 a.m. local time). The first part of the attack included an attack on the Iranian military and political leadership - who were apparently holding two separate, in-person meetings. According to Israeli reports, some 40 senior leadership figures were killed in the first minutes of the attack including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomenei, the Iranian Foreign Minister, the General of the IRGC, and many others. The targets also included Iranian air defence installations. Contrary to some fake Iranian reports, neither the Israelis nor the Americans targeted a girls' school - it was apparently hit by an errant Iranian missile.
The Iranians have responded by firing ballistic missiles, conventional rockets and missiles and drones at Israel and at a wide range of surrounding countries including Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Qatar and others.
At least two ballistic missiles sent from Iran scored direct hits on residential buildings in Israel. In Beit Shemesh, an Iranian missile hit a residential building and a synagogue - and landed directly in the building's bomb shelter. At least 9 people were killed and more than 25 were injured. There were no military targets nearby - this was strictly an attack on a residential building. In Tel-Aviv, a residential building was also hit - with at least 3 Israelis reportedly killed and more than 20 injured. Many missiles, drones and other rockets have been intercepted by Israel and its allies - including the U.S., Jordan, and others. But the systems are not foolproof. If any of these ballistic missiles get through, they can cause enormous damage as they are carrying 400 kg of explosives.
Iran has also hit residential and commercial targets in Dubai, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia as well as other places.
Israelis have been in and out of bomb shelters and safe rooms since the war started. Not all Israelis have access to these facilities - some estimates are that only about 65% to 70% of Israelis have a safe place to go that is reasonably close by.
Meanwhile, the United States has also suffered some casualties to its servicer personnel. At least 3 navy personnel were killed today by an Iranian missile and dozens more were apparently injured. Details are still emerging.
I have listened to a wide range of analysts assessing the likely scope of the current war - though of course things are unpredictable. The U.S.-Israeli plan initially targeted the Iranian military and political leadership and the various defence installations including ground to air military targets. The goal is to establish Air Supremacy. After that, Israel and the U.S. have the stated goals of targeting missile supplies and capabilities and the IRGC including the units that have been used to suppress Iranian civilian protests. The other main target is to attack and destroy all of the Iranian nuclear installations. Some reports have estimated that this plan is designed to take 5 to 7 days - some of predicated as much as a month.
Although the initial attacks appear to have been highly successful from a military standpoint, it is unclear what will come next. The U.S. and Israel have stated that their goal is regime change - to be carried out by Iranians themselves and they are trying to set the conditions for that to happen. Is it possible? Likely? I have not idea. Clearly, if there were to be regime change - and a regime were to emerge that had the support of a large percentage of the Iranian population and was interested in peaceful relations with the U.S. and perhaps Israel, this would be a huge game changer in the Middle East and for the world.
Here are a few other comments about this war from some different perspectives.
A. Israel
For Israel, contrary to what various opponents of Israel might try to argue, this is not a whimsical war of aggression by Netanyahu or some unjustified attempt at a form of expansionism.
Since the Iranian revolution, Iran has been the leading anti-Israel power in the Middle East. It has openly called for destruction for Israel - and has dedicated itself to that goal. It has worked at building a nuclear program and openly stated that it intends to use the weapons to destroy Israel. It has hosted annual Holocaust denial conferences, sponsored terrorist attacks against Jews and Israelis around the world and sponsored terrorist groups across the middle east.
More recently, Iran trained Hamas fighters and helped plan the massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 and the incursions by Hamas into Israel. Iran also activated Hezbollah (also Iranian trained and armed) to attack Israel from Lebanon shortly after October 7th and it armed the Houthis to attack Israel with ballistic missiles from Yemen. Ultimately, Iran and Israeli engaged in direct fighting for a period of 12 days in 2025. Although there was a ceasefire, the Iranians began rebuilding their nuclear and missile programs. Some reports have indicated that they were very close to having an operational nuclear bomb.
For Israel, much of this is therefore existential - or, at least, likely to become existential. Israel could not afford to wait until it was attacked by a nuclear Iran and the clock has been ticking.
Although the timing works cynically well for Israel's besieged Prime Minister - especially with elections in Israel due to take place by October, it is more likely that this was a rare opportunity for him to fulfill his decades long goal of dismantling the Iranian threat because he happened to have a willing U.S. Presidential partner.
It is a significant risk for the people of Israel. There could be a large number of Israeli casualties. If there is no regime change in Iran, the situation could become even worse. And Israel could find itself even more isolated on the world stage - with only President Trump in its corner. On the other hand, if the war is successful and there is regime change in Iran, this could be a major watershed moment for the whole Middle East.
B. The United States
Although from the Israeli perspective, in my view, the war is fully justifiable, it is quite a different story for the United States.
First of all, as a lawyer, I am interested in the legal implications of governance and decision making - in Israel, the United States and Canada. My understanding of the U.S. Constitution is that the President must have congressional approval for launching a war. Even President Bush received a resolution that included "all means necessary" before attacking Iraq. If an operation is due to a pressing and immediate problem, requiring the U.S. to commit limited troops, that is apparently permissible - and was used initially with the Viet Nam war. But this is an all out war. I believe that it requires U.S. Congressional support.
Now that doesn't mean that I think congresspeople and senators would or should vote against it. They would have to listen to the arguments and decide. But they would need to be part of the decision making.
From the U.S. perspective, there are many questions to be answered. What is the mid-range and long-range plan if the U.S. dismantles the Iranian leadership? Who will take over? Will the U.S. commit troops to maintain order? Will it just create chaos and then leave (See Afghanistan, Iraq etc.,). What are the casualty estimates for U.S. service people? These are legitimate questions that need to answered and there are many others.
I also wonder what caused Trump to believe that this attack was in his interest. His popularity has been sinking to record lows. I am not sure that this type of war, even if partially successful, is likely to bolster his support.
Although some might argue that Prime Minister Netanyahu has Trump under some sort of magic spell and has convinced him that it is in the U.S. interest to execute this war, I do not believe that to be the case. I do not believe that Bibi has the wherewithal, monetarily, or otherwise to provide Trump with something sufficient in exchange for support. And Trump is a very transactional president.
So why would Trump agree? I think the answer is more likely Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is looking to shore up its position in the Middle East, take a leadership role in the Arab World and destroy its enemies. Saudi Arabia has a wide range of assets, tools and promises that it could make or provide to Trump in exchange for support with this war.
For example, Saudi Arabia may have discussed post war oil arrangements with Trump. post-war weapons and security arrangements, a possible peace deal with Israel - maybe even some kind of support to a nascent Palestinian State. Saudi Arabia has plenty to trade with Trump - more so then Israel I would argue. Earlier today, the Israel Times reported that MBS of Saudi Arabia had played a key role in "convincing" Trump to move ahead with this war. In my view, most of the time Trump is "convinced" to do anything, there is some type of transaction involved. I would love to know the terms but we may never find out - or it might take quite a while. However, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit greatly from regime change in Iran and from an even closer relationship with the United States. As well - Saudi Arabia's apparently close but hidden relationship with Israel could come out of the closet.
C. Iran
I am probably not qualified to write about this from an Iranian perspective but I think a few comments are worth making.
On the one hand, Iran clearly read the tea leaves and saw that a massive attack was coming - given all of the hardware that the U.S. moved into the region. While the Americans were making some fairly unrealistic demands of the Iranians, the Iranians seemed to have responded with maximum hubris - and what can only be described as a nonchalant response to the impending war. A similar mistake to that made by Saddam Hussein years ago. I am not sure that the Iranians could have come up with sufficient concessions to stop the war, especially if the US. goal was regime change - but they probably could have made a better effort.
My second comment is that I would question the effectiveness of attacking Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and others in the region. Although the Iranian thinking on this might be that this well pressure the U.S. into stopping the war, I believe that it will likely have the opposite effect and push those countries to further support a complete dismantling of the Iranian government.
Ultimately, I appreciate that the current Iranian government is in survival mode and is hoping to ride this out in any way it can - and stand up to the U.S. / Israeli efforts to support regime change. I do not know if that is going to be possible - but attacking civilian targets, bringing in other countries into the fighting and making other non-credible threats to U.S. interests - do not seem to be steps that will assist the Iranians.
D. The Rest of the World
The world has been relatively quiet so far in response to this war. Canada's Prime Minister issued a lukewarm statement supporting the U.S. and also stated that Canada had no part in this and was not going to get involved. Many other countries - such as Turkey - have been quieter than one might have expected. I imagine that this will all change as the war goes on. But the only country in any position to cause some real problems for the U.S. at this point is probably China. Hopefully they will not have any interest in becoming involved.
E. Conclusion about the War
There have been demonstrations and counterdemonstrations all around the world. Many expatriate Iranians have been demonstrating, often with Israelis in the crowd, in favour of the U.S. -Israeli actions and hoping for a much better future for Iran. Others have demonstrated against the war - including, in many cases, those who were supporting Hamas against Israel.
According to newest reports, Iran has asked to meet with Trump as soon as possible to discuss the war - and Trump has agreed (while telling them it took them way too long).
At the same time, there is talk that the civilian anti-government demonstrations within Iran that took place in early January may re-start - this time supported to some degree by U.S. and Israeli actions including the possibility of military assistance.
Israeli news has just reported that Trump has had conversations with MBS of Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister of Netanyahu and the leaders of Bahrain - and that things might move quicker than expected towards a cease fire.
As discussed above, from Israel's perspective, the only real "win" in this war will be a regime change - or a major directional change by whoever takes over the Iranian government. For the U.S., Trump would probably like to see this end as quickly as possible and be able to claim victory. Hard to predict how this will play out.
Other
I was supposed to be back in Israeli for Purim and this will be the first time in 16 years or so that I am not in Israel for Purim. I usually read chapter 8 of Megillat Esther - and sometimes 9 and 10 as well. But Israeli air space is closed until Tuesday at earliest. For now, I am hoping that I will be back in time for Pesach.
There are many other topics to write about - hockey, the upcoming academy awards, the travel situation for flights to and from Israel and other topics. But I am going to leave these topics for now and hope for a speedy and successful conclusion to this war - peace for Israel and the whole middle east - and
with freedom for Iranians - meaning a government that they install and support - and hopefully one that will be committed to long term peaceful middle east - with all of its neighbours- including Israel.
And wishing everyone a happy and healthy Purim!
