World Cup 2022: Canada, the Middle Eastern Teams and Israel. Go Canada!

It is a huge day  in Canadian Soccer history tomorrow.  The Canadian national soccer team will compete in the FIFA World Cup for only the second  time in Canadian history.  Canada's first time out was in 1986.  The  Canadian side failed to score a goal.  Instead, it let in  a total  of 5 goals and lost all three matches - to France, Hungary and the Soviet Union.  This time out, the Canadian team was quite impressive  over the course of the qualifying  rounds  and is hoping to have better success.  The first game will take place at 2 p.m. EST (9 p.m. Israel time) on Wednesday  November 23, 2022 versus Belgium, one of the tournament  favourites.   Canada will also play Croatia on Sunday November 27,  2022 at 11 a.m. EST and will finish its round of three on Thursday December 1, 2022 at 10 a.m. EST vs Morocco.  Team Canada has its work cut out for it, having to face Belgium and  Croatia, two very strong  sides.  It probably has a better shot against Morocco.   Hopefully, the Canadian side can  score some  historic  goals and surprise the world with a victory or two.  

Israel has only played in the FIFA World Cup once, in 1970.  Israel managed a 1-1 tie with Sweden, a 0-0 draw with Italy and lost 2-0 to Uraguay.  Italy wound  up losing that World Cup final 4-1 to Brazil, so a 0-0 draw for Israel against Italy was a pretty decent result.  More recently, it has been very hard for Israel to qualify since  it has to qualify through the European conference instead of the Middle East, where it belongs. 

For the 2022 World Cup, Israelis can only watch from the sidelines, though many are in Qatar attending the games live.  It is only a three hour flight to Qatar and  Tus Airlines is offering direct flights for  "only" $666 USD.  All of the games are being shown on Israeli national  TV on channel 11 and  feature some rather amusing  Israeli commentators.    Israeli  press has sent  delegates to the games to try and  speak to Iranian  fans and other fans from  different Arab and Muslim countries about  Israel and about their thoughts about Israel.  Some have refused to speak to the Israeli press, but a surprisingly large number  of Arab  and Muslim fans, even fans from Iran, have been willing to speak and say some nice things about Israel.

Israeli commentators covering the games were thrilled to see  Saudi Arabia shock Argentina  earlier today with an historic 2-1 victory.  One commentator said that "Saudi Arabia had  won a huge victory for the whole Middle East," and that this represented a "new dawn for Middle East soccer."  Commentators were equally effusive  about Tunisia's impressive scoreless draw versus Denmark, later in the day.  It will be interesting to hear what they have to say when Canada plays Morocco.

Watching all of these teams from the Middle  East play - including Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Iran and Qatar, Israelis are clearly convinced that their national team should be at this World Cup taking up one of those spots since they would almost  certainly be able to qualify if those were their primary obstacles.  Perhaps if the Abraham Accords continue to expand - and more countries sign full peace deals with Israel, FIFA will recalibrate its conferences and put Israeli in the proper  place, where it will have a much better chance of qualifying.

For now, Israelis will jealously watch the tournament and  hope that their chance to attend for a second time ever is not too far off in the future.  If Israel were to make it into the tournament one day, the game days would almost certainly be national holidays since the entire country would be  watching.  Even now, without Israel in the tournament, the TV stations continue to wish everyone  a "Happy World Cup Holiday."

As for  me, I am cheering for Canada in the 2022 World  Cup - hoping that  I will not only get to see Canada's first World Cup goal ever - but a bunch  more - enough to advance Canada to the next  round, even though their odds of  doing so are currently set at about 200-1.  Miracles can  happen.   Go Canada!

Israeli Political Update, Sports News and Some other Comments - November 2022

Israeli Soccer fans in Israel

We are two-thirds of the way  into November, 2022, 19 days after the most recent Israeli election.   In  this blog, I am covering a few topics.   First some comments about Israeli politics and the ongoing coalition talks.  Next some sports news with a bit of an Israeli angle.  Then a comment on my most recent  flight to Israel from  Toronto.  And finally, a few comments on a movie I watched on the plane and other  Israeli programming.

Israeli Political Update

Israeli coalition talks continue and Israel still does not have a government in place.  Some had expected that these talks would be very quick and that a coalition would  be  formed well  within  the  28 day mandate that has been given to Netanyahu.  But as others probably expected, things aren't that simple.

As you may know from reading the news (or my other blogs), Netanyahu is trying to form a coalition government with three  parties, who will join his own Likud party as part of the government.  Two of the parties are ultra-religious ("Haredi") parties and the third party is a far right wing nationalist-religious party.

For all of the parties concerned here, there are no other real options.  The two ultra-religious parties were left out of the previous government.  This meant a reduction in budget allocations for Yeshivot and other ultra-religious institutions.   They are determined to be part of this government, no matter what to make up what they lost.  They also know that, for the most part, the other parties in the  Knesset do not want to give in to their  demands.  So they must make a deal with Netanyahu.

Likewise, the far right party, the Religious  Zionist party - also knows that it will not be part of any government  other than one with this current configuration.  Of course, the RZ party could  increase its seat total in future elections.  In fact, Ben-Gvir sees  himself, it seems, as a future Prime Minister.  But for now, they need the Likud and the ultra-religious parties to form their "dream governnment," a "completely right-wing government" as they referred to it during the election campaign.

At the  same time, Netanyahu needs all three of these parties (and only these parties) to form a government.  They are the only parties that will pass laws to help him end  his criminal proceedings.  He ran on a platform to govern with these parties.  And the ultra-religious parties  have been very loyal to him.  So all in all, I expect that these four parties will succeed in forming a government shortly.  Like any  good negotiators, they may all push the matter until the very last minute, just before the deadline, or even the extended deadline.  But they will eventually reach a deal.  They have no other choice.

The ultra-religious parties have made a wide range of demands.  First on the list is an "override law" that allows the Knesset to override any decision of the Supreme Court of  Israel.   This is somewhat like the "Notwithstanding  Clause" in the Canadian Charter.  It has served as a basis for attacks from a few different satire programs - including Eretz Nehedert ("A wonderful country") which ran a skit with impersonators of the different political leaders sitting around thinking up  bills that they could  pass with the power to override the Supreme Court.  The skit ended with "Bibi" wondering if he could change the electoral system to give himself a 10 year mandate instead of 4....

Other ultra-religious demands have included a steep hike in the monthly stipend paid to yeshiva students, a law that permits public gender segregation of certain events, an immediate repeal of the taxes on super  sweet beverages (cola etc.,) and on disposable products and a wide range of other changes.  The ultra-religious Shas party has also demanded that the law be changed to remove "public breach of trust" from the  criminal code and to overturn the  current  Israeli law that says that a convict cannot serve as a minister in the government if he or  she was convicted of  certain types of offences.  The leader of Shas, Aryeh Deri, has been convicted  twice (the second time in 2021) of financial improprieties.  He wants  to have the law changed so that  he can serve as the country's  Finance  Minister.  (You can't make this stuff up - but it sounds about  as absurd as things get....).   I suppose it is like putting some Arab or other Mideastern countries, like  Syria or Iran, in charge of the UN Human Rights committees....

Overall, it sounds like Bibi and his Likud party are more or less willling to go along with most of these requests  from the  ultra-religious.

The Religious Zionist party is giving  Bibi  more  difficulties so far.    RZ is comprised of three parties that run under  one umbrella.  One group, led by Ben-Gvir, "Jewish Power" is anxious to come to a quick deal.  They have met  with Bibi  and, apparently, agreed on a range of items, including the  legalization of certain settlements  that were previously classified as "illegal"by Israel.  Ben-Gvir  is pencilled  in to  be the Minister of the Interior - which includes  having charge over Israel's police forces.   As you may know, Ben-Gvir has been charged and  convicted in the past on incitement charges  (of violence  against Arabs  and  of threatening violence against gays and  leftists...).  So  this is not a particularly palatable posting for some of us but Bibi will agree to it.

The other two leaders of RZ - Bezalel Smotrich and Avi Moaz are apparently demanding  concessions above their political weight.   Smotrich would like to be  given  the Finance Ministry or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  So far, Bibi is  refusing these demands (preferring to put Deri in the Finance  Ministry and his own buddy, Ron Dermer, who wasn't even  elected, into the role of  Minister of Foreign Affairs).  Here  for the first time, Netanyahu is running into protests from some of his own  party members, since they feel  he is giving  away too many of the important roles and not rewarding  his own stalwart party members.  This rumbling might become louder  since the Likud loyalists who are  left are the ones who have stuck with Bibi through thick and thin - generally less qualified and  more extreme than other former Likudniks  who left Bibi when they felt  supporting him was no longer  viable.  They would now like to reap their rewards for having remained.

I guess they will all continue to negotiate until someone  blinks.  Sooner or later someone  will,  since they all realize that  they have  no other choice. As expected, this is shaping up to be a  very right wing  government, which will  overturn a  wide range  of legislation, weaken  the power of the Israeli Supreme Court, tilt laws towards religion in the sphere of secular-religious balance, set back gender equality progress and generally make things very uncomfortable for  Arabs, especially those  living  in the disputed territories.

We will see what  deal emerges and  I will write more  about this in the  coming  weeks.

Sport News

The big  sport  news, of course, is the opening of the  World Cup of Football in Qatar.  There is an Israeli angle here, even though the Israeli side did  not make it into this World Cup tournament.  In fact, Israel has only played in one World Cup.  Perhaps that will change one day (and perhaps the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup...).

Israel does not have dipolomatic relations with Qatar.  However, Qatar agreed to allow Israelis to fly to Qatar and come watch the games. In fact, just yesterday it  was announced that Tus Airlines, which is 48% Israeli owned, will now run direct flights to Doha, Qatar for the World Cup.   This three-hour flight will set you back $666 USD though you can only get on the flight  if you can show proof of having a ticket to a World  Cup game.  Thousands of Israelis have apparently made plans to go  or are already there.  I watched a few being  interviewed just before the game  and they were  certainly very excited about being there.  None of them seemed to be concerned about any security issues.

Qatar has apparently agreed to allow cold  Kosher  food to be sold - but nothing warm and no meat, even though it had apparently promised to be  more hospitable earlier.   It has also stated that Jewish people will be prohibited  from praying in groups.  I would imagine that many of the soccer fans  going are  not  too concerned about these issues, but for observant Israeli soccer fans, this trip  might be somewhat uncomfortable.  Hopefully, there won't be any issues.  This is quite a contrast with what is going on in Dubai - where the UAE has opened up synagogues, brought in Kosher caterers and made extensive efforts to make Israelis feel at home since the signing  of the Abraham Accords.  Qatar is simply not there yet.

Soccer is the most  watched sport here in Israel.   On TV they are wishing everyone a "Happy World  Cup  Holiday."  One of the main channels, Channel 11, is interrupting much of its regular programming to show the games and there will probably be quite a number of people calling in sick or "working from  home"  over the next month. Sure this is also the case in many countries  around the world, even other countries that aren't actually participating in the tournament, like Israel.

As a Canadian, I am cheering  for Canada to do well.   Canada will face Belgium, Croatia and  Morocco in the first round.   The odds of Canada winning the World Cup are apparently 12,500 to 1 (though some sites are offering as much as 25,000 to 1 supposedly).  The odds of Canada emerging as one of the top two  teams from its group of four are apparently set at 215 to 1.  So if you think that Canada is about to be the big surprise of the tournament, there is lots of money to be made.  I imagine that quite a large number of Canadians will watch the Canadian side play - even if that means missing some work.  But the numbers probably won't  be as high  as the numbers who watch Team Canada Olympic Ice Hockey games.

Meanwhile,  I am not really sure if you could say Israelis are unified in cheering for a particular  team - though certainly Brazil, Argentina, and  France are all big  fan favourites.  I'm not normally a big watcher of soccer  but I have always enjoyed watching the World Cup  and I'm sure  I will watch my  share  of games, even though I won't be going to Qatar.  For now, I am clearly cheering for Canada.  If they exit the tournament quickly, as expected, I will have to find a different horse to cheer for.   Maybe  another underdog team.

Flight News

As you might know, El Al has "suspended" its Canadian service.   So there are no longer direct flights from Toronto to Tel-Aviv, which leaves Air Canada  as the only option.  In general, I have been flying  Air  Canada over the years.  Air  Canada offers a far superior  mileage  program, better deals with other partner  airlines,  lounge access  all over the world, and  a much greater  level of predictability, order, ease of boarding and baggage  allowance.  The in-flight service is also much better.

But with the decision by El Al to stop servicing Canada, Air Canada took the liberty of raising its prices - immediately and  drastically.  So whereas November is normally a "low season" to fly with very reasonable prices, it was much more expensive  now and the  flight was completely packed.  Clearly many of the people  were passengers who have  normally been flying El Al - which changed the feel of the flight as well.

Hopefully some other airline or  airlines will step forward and  offer some  competition on this route.  Otherwise, it looks like direct travel  between Toronto and Tel-Aviv (as well as Montreal and Tel-Aviv) is going to continue to get much more expensive.   

Movies and Shows 

On the flight from Toronto  to Tel-Aviv, I watched the movie "One of Us" which is a  documentary based on the lives of a few former Hassidic Jews in Brooklyn  who were able to "escape" and  are trying to rebuild  their  lives, some  with more success than others.  Certainly  the movie sheds light on some really horrible  situations and addresses a range of different issues,  including custody fights in the ultra-orthodox community in New  York courts, the cover-up of sexual abuse  in the  Haredi community, the limited  secular  education that community members receive and some other  issues.  It was  not a particularly balanced movie though it highlighted the work of Footsteps  a New York organization that assists those who have  chosen  to leave the ultra-religious community.  

Although there were interviews with some Hassidic rabbis and some attempts to discuss these  issues with community members, I felt that, overall, it was somewhat more of an attack on the community than a  balanced documentary.

That  being  said, there are similar organizations similar to Footsteps and  many similar stories in Israel.  It is a genuine  concern that this insular community  - in the U.S., Israel, and around the world, is not  providing its members with the proper  tools  to function and  make a living  and that creates ongoing, cyclical poverty.   Ultra-orthodox Jews are among the poorest Israelis.  Perhaps some of this is self-imposed, since  many of the men would  rather spend their lives  studying  in a Yeshiva instead of earning an  income.  In Israel, they don't serve in the army, they marry at a young age,  have  a large number of children,  and generally, have few skills that are marketable in the general workforce.

So although the movie itself was one-sided, the issues it raises are very serious  and are likely to be exacerbated by the Israeli  government in waiting that is rapidly taking shape - since the new government will be beholden  to  interests  that want  to promote and fund this way of life.

I should  also mention that after  I got back to Israel, I finished watching the  fourth  season of Fauda, centred on an  Israeli under cover unit that  fights terrorist cells in the disputed territories  and in other places.  I thought the fourth season was probaby the best.  Intense, riveting and more realistic than some  of the previous seasons.  I won't  give anything away - but it is really  quite a dramatic show.

The weather  has been beautiful here - 28 C during the day and sunny though we  have some days of rain forecast for later in the week.  We are looking forward to seeing a number of different guests, including family members and friends, here in December and then  in the spring and  fall  as well.   I don't celebrate American Thanksgiving myself - other than to  do my part by watching some of the NFL games that day - but I have attended a few Thanksgiving dinners  in Israel with some American friends.  Nothing  planned this year (since at least one of my American observing friends will be away) - but for all those celebrating - I wish you a wonderful Thanksgiving!  

As it turns out, there is a chance that we will finally have our  whole  crew together for  dinner on Thursday  night - so maybe I need to consider making  some turkey....We could combine that  with some World Cup viewing and some  quality Israeli wine.  I guess we have a few days  to decide.

Bibi: My Story - A review

 

As you might know Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi") released his memoires in the midst of Israel's most recent election campaign.  He wrote the book himself in longhand over the course of the year and half or so of being the leader of the opposition in the Israeli Knesset.  I couldn't resist picking up a copy and comparing it to the other books on Bibi that I have read and reviewed.

As you might recall, I wrote this review of the book "Bibi" by Anshel Pfeffer and this review of Ben Caspit's book The Netanyahu Years.  I have not yet read any other reviews of Bibi's book but I did go back and look at my reviews of these other two books to compare.

For starters, I have to say that I quite enjoyed reading the book.  Netanyahu is a very skilled communicator.  The book flows well, is very readable and contains some very interesting stories and antecdotes.

I would say that it is structured like a legal argument rather than a true biography.  It is presented as an argument for Bibi's legacy.  Netanyahu asserts that he, almost singlehandedly, reformed the Israeli economy from a socialist leaning, old style economy to a modern capitalist society and moved Israel from a developing country to one that is fully developed and closing in on a AAA credit rating.  All of this as a result of Bibi's work as Israel's Finance Minister and subsequently as Prime Minister, where he continued the work that he had started.

A second theme throughout the book is that with Bibi's background, having obtained his undergraduate degree at MIT, he was keenly aware of the power of technology and made technological development a priority throughout the course of his tenure as Israel's Prime Minister, leading to Israel's recognition as a true technological powerhouse.

A third theme is that the key to Middle East peace is bypassing the Palestinians, since they aren't really interested in a deal anyways and developing peace with other Arab countries first as a precondition to resolving the whole of the middle east conflict.  I will come back to this shortly.

A fourth theme is that the focus of Bibi's foreign policy efforts since 1999 or even earlier has been to see Iran as the real threat and focus on containment of Iran and prevention of the Iranian development of a nuclear bomb.

A fifth theme is to raise the profile of his father, his wife Sara, his sons Yair and Avner and brush away or deflect any criticism of any of them.  From the descriptions of Sara that Netanyahu has provided, it is hard to imagine a kinder, more perfect, more gracious, more supportive spouse than Sara.  But,of course, perhaps this is all in response to the various other Bibi books including those by Caspit and Pfeffer that strongly suggest otherwise.

So how does Bibi fare with these arguments?

Interestingly, he starts off by saying that a good lawyer, when appearing in court, often leads by diffusing the strongest arguments that opponents might present.  Bibi's first parts of the book deal with the tragic death of his brother Yoni in the course of the Entebbe raid, his own academic accomplishments, which are indeed impressive, and his analysis of the history of Israel, Zionism and the importance of a strong, militarily capable, home for the Jewish people.  

Bibi puts forward arguments for the importance of a strong free market economy and traces his Zionism back to the Zionism of Jabotinsky and his successors, many of whom became Likud party members, as opposed to the more socialist bent of the Labor party that dominated Israeli political life for so many years.  

Much of this analysis is cogent and convincing.  But these are certainly the strongest points that Bibi would have to put forward and they are what he tackles first.  That might be due to chronology but I note that he starts with his brother Yoni and then goes back in time.  This is a particularly deliberate choice, which partially responds to some of the criticisms made by Pfeffer and Caspit about the cynical use of Yoni's legacy by Bibi and his family.

As the book moves on, a few things became particularly interesting.

One thought I had was that a great deal of the book is "Bibi's spin" on different historical events irrespective of how accurate that spin might be.  The other thought I had was what was left out as opposed to what was included.  This is certainly not a "comprehensive" book even though it is 650 pages long.  

Certainly Bibi's contributions to the change in Israel's economy are significant. Israel has become a booming modern country with skyscrapers galore.  At the same time, the cost of living has skyrocketed, the gap between the wealthy and the poor has increased dramatically, and wealth has become ever more concentrated in the hands of very few.  No comments from Bibi about these issues, other than some platitudes that suggest that everyone is now better off and would not have been if Israel had followed different policies.

Many political figures, industry leaders and others contributed to the change in Israel's economic structure and I am somewhat skeptical that Bibi's role is as singularly definitive as he asserts.

Having read many other books about how Israel has become a technological superpower, I find it very difficult to give Bibi as much credit as he would like to take in this area. For example, steps taken by Shimon Peres to develop Israel's Air Force and other military technology were dramatic as were many taken by Ehud Barak.  Moreover, many different private companies as well as private-public consortiums have focused on technological development.  Although Bibi clearly appreciates all of these developments, I find his efforts to take credit for them less convincing.

Bibi's recount of his dealings with the Palestinians is a whole different story.

I found Bibi's analysis of dealings with President Bill Clinton quite interesting.  Although he recognizes that Clinton was well intentioned, he accuses of Clinton of buying the "Palestine first" narrative and focusing all of his efforts on persuading Israel to accept a deal rather than pushing the Palestinians.  Here, there is a reasonable argument that Bibi's version is sound.  Even Clinton in his later writings noted that despite all of the concessions that he was able to wrangle out of the Israeli side, Arafat was still not prepared to accept the deal.  And that is Bibi's thesis, that Palestinian rejectionism is, primarily, what has led to the current situation.  That being said, this does not, in my view, mean that the resolution of Palestinian issues is of a much lower level of importance, even if it is extremely difficult to attain.

Bibi also spends a great deal of time on his relationship with President Obama.  Bibi is somewhat more deferential than I had expected, particularly given the relationship between these two.  He points out Obama's decision to "recalibrate" the relationship in the Middle East after first becoming President by visiting a host of Arab countries but not Israel.  He also discusses the failed policy of bolstering the "Arab Spring" and the disaster that occurred in Egypt when Morsi took over.  That being said, Bibi outlines some of the differences of opinion and concludes that Obama was probably the "toughest opponent he had ever faced."  In fact, in reading some of the discussions and arguments that Bibi recalls having with President Obama, it is not clear to me Bibi's position is the more convincing one.

Bibi goes out of his away to try and explain away all of the different incidents in which he was accused of trying to embarrass and humiliate President Obama.  Here, I didn't find him that convincing.  Although he claims that it was all about the Iranian threat, the Israeli interests and his commitment to remaining bi-partisan, I just don't think that meshes with the manner in which events really played out.  He highlights that his differences with Obama were all about "POLICY" (which he puts in capital letters).  But in my view, other historical accounts are far more convincing - suggesting that Bibi deliberately set out to humiliate Obama and tilt Israel policy towards the Republicans. 

Moving on to Trump, I would say that, reading between the lines, Bibi is much less complimentary of Trump.  Although Trump was a "committed friend" who was willing to give in to Bibi on a whole range of issues including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan and putting together a proposed peace deal with the Palestinians without any Palestinian input, there is little true respect shown for Trump, perhaps deservedly show.

The one area where Bibi does show appreciation for Trump is in the development and negotiation of the Abraham accords, though the book suggests that these are all really Bibi's creations, which he was able to foist onto Trump as a priority.  On the other hand, Bibi claims that Trump had promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over much of the West Bank and has some very harsh words for Trump over the U.S. decision to back out of this commitment, even though some have argued that this was all used as a smoke screen to make progress with the UAE and Bahrain.

Ultimately, even with Trump, Bibi still had to deal with the U.S. (and worldwide) position that Israel needs to come to a political solution with the Palestinians.  Whether it is the Clinton Plan, the Obama Plan, the Saudi Plan, the Trump Plan, or anyone else's, if it is to be a viable solution that also protects Israeli demographic interests, there will need to be a Palestinian State, or some form of separation of the two peoples, with a Palestinian territory being the one that can address any Palestinian refugee claims.  

But Bibi has no time for this argument.  I was waiting to see what he might outline, in the book, as his proposed solution.  What is the Bibi plan? Perhaps, I thought, he was a "Jordan is Palestine" proponent (given that more than 70% of the Jordanian population is Palestinian).  No, he explicitly rules that out as dangerous in no uncertain terms.  Maybe he supports a population transfer and/or incentives to the Palestinians to relocate?  No suggestion of that as a policy, even though he is now entering a coaltion government with 14 coalition members from the Religious Zionist Party that support that approach.  Two state supporter?  Well even though he accepted that in principle after much arm twisting from past U.S. Presidents, he leaves little doubt that he opposes a two state solution in this book.  

Ultimately, the best I could discern, to use hockey terminology - his preference would be to "rag the puck" (i.e. just to kill time).  He favours a continuation of the current status quo with only minor changes to the way things have been going with the hope that one day, the problem will just go away.  This just does not seem like a viable long term solution.  If Israel moves to annex large amounts of Judea and Samaria, as now requested by the Religious Zionist coalition, we will be closer to an apartheid type of regime, unless when Israel annexes these territories it also grants full and equal citizenship for all of the people living in the territories irrespective of religious background.  If it simply de facto annexes these areas, Israel will continue on with a smouldering situation, trying to control a hostile population of millions of Palestinians.  Ultimately, Bibi fails to propose any type of viable solution for the current conflict with the Palestinians and even castigates all of those leaders who have tried to resolve it.

That is not to say that there is an ideal solution.  There is a great deal of historical truth to Bibi's assessments of Arafat and Abbas (both as two-faced liars and terror supporters) as well as his assessments of past U.S. Presidents including Clinton and Obama (both of whom naively thought that the Palestinian leadership would agree to a deal).  However, there is also something to the thesis argued by Caspit and Pfeffer.  Bibi had a golden opportunity with a sympathetic U.S. President in Trump, a powerful domestic political position and even a solid relationship with Putin and other European leaders, while at the same time, developing ties with a range of other Arab countries.  He could have tried to use this position of great strength to come up with a viable solution, even if it would be difficult to sell to the Palestinians.  Perhaps he could have obtained worldwide support to impose a solution.  There is little to show, from Bibi's account, that he made any such efforts or that he has any vision that he is willing to share about how to resolve the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

On the Iranian policy side, Bibi spends quite a bit of time dealing with his battle with President Obama on the COJPA and his fight to stop the agreement or have it shredded.  He outlines many of the flaws with the agreement and it is hard to argue with him that the agreement would have done anything other than delay Iranian nuclear armaments by 10-15 years.  He characterizes this whole issue as existential, perhaps one of the most existential threats that Israel has ever faced.

However, now that he "succeeded" in shredding the agreement, what did he accomplish?  Trump refused to bomb Iran's nuclear program or even threaten to do so.  Iran is moving ahead with its program at breakneck speed.  Perhaps Bibi is simply laying the groundwork for justification of a pending Israeli military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.  I guess we will see.  But from what I have read from various sources, there are a whole host of concerns about that option.  It may lead to large, wholesale war that would cause enormous loss of life in Israel.  The U.S. may oppose this type of attack - as might a range of allies.  Israel may not even have the full military capability to reach these underground nuclear sites and destroy all of them.  And ultimately, this may only set the program back by a short period of time and may lead Iran to redouble its efforts.

Overall, there may well have been other options, including different approachs with Obama and Trump that may have led to a better deal that would have actually stopped the program, with a combination of threats and incentives.

With respect to Bibi's attempts to rehabilitate the reputations of his family members, including Yair and Sara, in particular, his words just don't sound credible, especially given the multitude of stories about incidents involving these two.  For example, he dismisses the fact that Sara pled guilty to criminal charges by arguing that it was all trumped up and the plea bargain was done to end the matter and avoid any further publicity and hassle.  Here, again, the actual facts suggest otherwise.

Bibi devotes a short part of the book to dismissing all of the charges against him as "trumped up," "sewn together" and purely political.  I guess it remains to be seen what will happen with his trial.  Suffice it to say that the initial evidence was deemed as so overhwelming against Bibi at the preliminary stages of these proceedings, that even his political allies refused to dismiss the charges against him.  Of course his new governing coalition may find other ways to end Bibi's trial but that won't really prove that the charges were ill conceived in the first place.  But getting back to Bibi's initial comments, he took the absolute weakest part of his legacy and buried it near the end of his book with a tone of dismissal and indignation, something that legal counsel might do with an argument for which they don't really have a great response.

One other thought I had was that Bibi says very little, throughout this book, of the compromises that he has had to make with the ultra-orthodox to remain in power.  Over Bibi's tenure as president, he has successively provided larger and larger amounts of money to the ultra-orthodox and has granted them with greater and greater power over a range of aspects of Israeli life.  

Although Bibi argues so passionately for the power of education and particularly scientific education, he has presided over the growth of an ever increasing number of religious institutions that refuse to teach basic secular subjects.  Although he argues for the Republican philosophy of "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps," working hard and saving your money, he has presided over a massive growth in the number of Haredi families that look to the state for their income and remain outside of the labour force.  And although he appeals to many aspects of secular culture, including literature and theatre, his deals with co-coalitionists have led to a gradual erosion in the number of public performances and presentations that include an equal gender balance and have led to ever increasing rifts with liberal Jewish communities inside and outside of Israel, including rifts with non-Orthodox Jewish communities which will surely be exacerbated under this new governing coalition.  

Bibi has very little to say about the divisiveness that he has created in Israeli society.  Although Israel has always been a country in which 2 people have 3 different opinions, the ascerbic nature of public discourse has increased exponentially, fuelled by some of Bibi's political campaigns.  He does take credit at points in his book for tactics used in this regard.

Ultimately, this book is well written, entertaining and filled with selected but interesting antecdotes.

But I have many doubts about its veracity and I have arguments with many of the different conclusions that Bibi draws.   I guess Bibi can take notes over the coming four years in preparation for adding a few more chapters.  I suppose that the jury is still out on his legacy.  Perhaps we will have a bit of a better picture when his political life finally comes to an end.

Bibi's Victory Margin has Grown

We have had several election updates today from the Israeli election authority.  More than 90% of the ballots have been counted.  However, the remaining ballots may not be fully tabulated until tomorrow morning - or even early Friday.  My discussion of the early results appears in my previous blog and not much has changed.  But here are a few key points.

1.  The Netanyahu bloc is now sitting at a very comfortable 65 seats.  That breaks down to 32 for Likud (Bibi's party), 14 for the Religious Zionist party, 11 for Sha'as and 8 for the United Torah Judaism Party.  This is the "fully right wing government" that Bibi's supporters have dreamt of.

2.  The growth in the size of the Netanyahu bloc has come at the expense, partially, of Meretz, which is now sitting at less than 3.25% and unlikely to pass the electoral threshhold.  Although there is still a chance that this leftist secular bloc could pass the threshhold, most analysts have suggested that it looks unlikely given the make up of the remaining uncounted votes.

3.  The Arab party Bal'ad is also below the threshhold.  They are also unlikely to pass.  

4.  The Labour party is apparently very close to the threshold (just over) and is facing the possibility of falling below - which could strengthen Bibi even further.  They seem likely to scrape through but it will be close.

If Meretz and Bal'ad were to both pass, which seems highly unlikely, the Likud-led bloc could fall to as low as 61 seats.  That would still leave Likud and its bloc with a majority.

What's Next?

Bibi will now have 30 days to cobble together an official coalition.  Although there will definitely be in-fighting over key cabinet ministries, it seems likely that this bloc will be able to put things together within the alotted month.  There are lots of egos here, lots of likely demands and lots of disagreements.  But compared to past coalitions that Bibi has formed, this will be relatively easy.

Among the priorities and likely steps to be taken by this new government:

1. The appointment of a new Justice Minister, some new judges and some type of steps to be taken to end Bibi's trial.  The Religious Zionist party floated the prospect of introducing legislation to remove the criminal offences of corruption and breach of trust for sitting government members.  If passed, this would effectively end Bibi's trial;

2.  Elimination of the special tax on sugary beverages (coca cola etc.,) and non-resusable plastics and other disposable materials.  The ultra-religious have complained about these taxes which were introduced by the previous government. They claim that these special taxes were directed at them since they are the highest users of these products.  The tax on disposable goods was clearly implemented as an environmental measure.   The tax on sugary beverages was imposed as a response to growing obesity among young people.

3.  Significantly increased police presence in Arab-Israeli areas and increased army presence in Palestinian areas - in an effort to reduce violence in Arab-Israeli communities and in an effort to stop the current wave of Palestinian terror attacks.

4.  Immediate legislation or special measures to significantly increase the budgets (state funding) for Yeshiva students, ultra-religious organizations, and settlement/settler organizations.

Medium Term:

I think that it is reasonable to expect that we will see government action taken in a number of areas:

1.  I expect that the Religious Zionist party will push for widespread expansion of settlement activity throughout Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank").  The government is likely to offer low cost housing, incentives for young families (especially Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox families) to move to these areas.  This will enrage Palestinians and may well bring about a third (or fourth) "intifadah."

2.  Increased power for the ultra-orthodox Rabbinical establishment including increased funding.  This could reverse the changes that were made previously to demonopolize Kosher supervision, it could lead to a complete ban on any non-Orthodox activity at the Kotel (the Western Wall) and it could make conversion to Judaism even more difficult.  I would think, for example, the "Women of the Wall" are going to be in for a very rough time.

3.  A much more boisterous and aggressive foreign policy.  We could see an increase in attacks on Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and Syria and quite possibly, increased action taken against Iran.  It is unclear how this government will position itself with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Netanyahu has always had a good relationship with Putin and Israel may be reluctant to become involved in any way in support of Ukraine.

4.  Coalition members of the incoming members have called for widespread "judicial reform."  Aside from filling the benches with right wing judges, I'm not sure what else they have planned here.  They may want further changes to the Israeli "Basic Law" to place more of an emphasis on the "Jewish" character of Israel and less of an emphasis on the "democratic" nature of the state - or on the principle of equality.

5.  If even some of these changes start to take place, Israel may well begin to face all sorts of criticism and international pressure - not only from other democratic countries but from Jews from around the world as well.

In the medium to longer term, if this coalition holds up, the Religious Zionist party will make more demands that will create tension between their party and Bibi.  Among its campaign platforms, the RZ party has, over the years, called for capital punishment for terrorists, government payments to "encourage" emigration of Arabs and Palestinians, significant changes to the Israeli legal system and other steps of the type that far right wing governments typically take.  I expect that some of the Likud members are likely to be uncomfortable with some of the demands made by the RZ coalition partners.

As an educated, westernized, English speaking politician, Netanyahu would probably be more comfortable forming a government with Gantz, Sa'ar and some of the other generals in Gantz's party, even Bennett, as opposed to a bunch of utra-orthodox and extremist politicians.  However, given his current legal troubles, and the bridges that he burned over the years with all of these people for different reasons, this was not an option so he is left to do the best with what he saw as the most promising opportunity.

Overall, Bibi ran a masterful campaign even though he and his party actually wound up with only 30-31 seats, which is lower than the numbers that they have had in the past.  The two big winners here are the Religious Zionist Party and Sha'as.  

The RZ party soaked up all of the votes that Bennett had in the past.  Bennett had run as a right wing leader but wound up in a coalition with centrist and leftist parties.  His voters were furious.  His party, which is now led by Ayelet Shaked, was eviscerated in this election.  The Shas party, despite having a leader who has been convicted twice of criminal offences, including a 2021 plea bargain deal, (or perhaps because of this) still managed to collect 10-11 seats.  That's an astounding number for this ultra-religious party but full credit to its leader, Aryah Deri, the certified fraudster.

There are several losers on the other side.  The biggest loser so far is Meretz, which may not even make the cut-off.   Their former leader, Nitzan Horowitz, served as the minister of education.  He resigned after the government fell.  Meretz brought back its past, less compromising leader, Zehava Gal'on.  She was obviously not the right choice. The Labour party and Lieberman's party are close to where they were previously though Lieberman has, in the past, reached numbers closer to 7 or 8 seats.  

For the Arab parties, the results are a disaster.  They disbanded their unified party and wound up throwing away four seats.  Having a total of only 8 or 9 Arab Israeli Knesset members is a major loss and will leave Israeli Arabs with a significantly reduced voice in state affairs.

I would also say that this was a disaster for Yair Lapid.  Although his party picked up 24 seats, which was an improvement, his move to the left probably contributed to the decline of the Meretz party - as well as to the increased strength on the right.  Lapid made several mistakes as election day approached.  His speech at the U.N. was ill-considered and made without a proper mandate.  His decision to sign off on a gas deal with Lebanon just weeks before an election was ill advised.  And his campaign, generally, was lacklustre.  While Bibi was running around the country visiting people in their homes and holding rallies, Lapid was much less visible.

In my view, to retain legitimacy, Lapid needs to open up his party to "primaries" and turn the party into a democratically functioning party rather than a one-man party.  He needs input from others towards developing medium and long term strategies and those strategies have to be formed with the equal input from a range of party members or new blood.  Even the leadership of the party should be contestable.

All of this being said, there may well be quite a bit of backlash once this new government eventually falls and the centre and centre-left will need a strong alternative to Bibi ready to jump into action and run an effective campaign.

Interesting and challenging times are ahead but, as I mentioned yesterday, Bibi is firmly in the driver's seat and everyone knows he is the boss.  He can't blame any government problems on anyone else at this point - he will have to take full responsibility for any actions that his government takes.  In effect, we will now get to see the "real Bibi."  

I will provide one more update once we have the absolute final results in, especially if anything changes.  At this point, however, there is a good chance that nothing will change dramatically.

Big Win for Netanyahu in Israeli Elections 2022 - Apparently

We are still waiting for the actual final results in the 2022 Israeli elections.  But at this point, it appears that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won a resounding victory and will be able to form a government with somewhere between 62 and 64 seats in the Knesset of 120 seats.

According to exit polls as well as the real time results that are still pouring in, Netanyahu's Likud party has captured approximately 30 seats or 25% of the eligible vote.  The  number of seats for the Likud is not at an all-time high - but it is the results of  Netanyahu's intended coalition partners that will put him in the driver's seat.

The election appears to have been a major victory for the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.  This is a far-right party that includes members who were Kahane party members in the past.  At the press conference that Ben-Gvir held earlier this evening, members were chanting "death to terrorists," referring to one of Ben-Gvir's demands that Israel institute capital punishment for terrrorists.  I was listening - and could have sworn I heard the crowd chanting "death to the Arabs" but I will give the crowd the benefit of the doubt and go with the reported chant.  The RZ party seems to be headed for 14-16 seats, a huge number for a party that has never come close to these numbers.   And a frightening number for those who prefer governments without fascist parties.

Another of Netanyahu's partners is the Shas party, the ultra-religious Sephardi party, which is being reported as winning 10 seats.  Shas has been running at 7-8  seats over the past few elections  so this is a reasonably significant improvement for them.  The other ultra-religious party - "United Torah Judaism" is being reported as winning 8 seats.

If we add up these numbers, we arrive at between 61 and 63 seats for Netanyahu and his bloc.  

Netanyahu will not have an easy time responding to the various demands for cabinet posts, huge budgets and and laundry lists  of action items from these three extreme parties.  He will also need to satisfy his own Likud members by showering them with cabinet posts.  I expect that there will be a huge cabinet - with close to 30 members if not more.

Yair Lapid's party, to this point, is registering 23 seats, which is a disappointing result for a party that was hoping to lead the government.  Some people  had expected that Yesh Atid could get up to 27-28 seats, which would have provided the party with a real opportunity to form a government.  If Yesh Atid winds up on the opposition benches for the next four years,  it will need to consider holding party primaries and acting more like a political party than a one-person show.

Benjamin Gantz's party, the National Camp, is running at about 10 seats, which is very low for a party that ran with the slogans "Only  Gantz can do it" and "After Him" (or "Follow Him").   This party is certainly disappointed with their apparent showing.

If the curent results hold up, the other "bloc" members that had worked with Yesh Atid including Labour (5), Meretz (4), and Ra'am (5) will come in at close to the predicted numbers from advance polls.  Lieberman's party is currently running at 5 seats, which is a bit lower than expected.

But overall, no matter how you slice these numbers, Lapid's best case  scenario so far is 52-53 seats.  There just does not seem to be a path to 61, even if some of the results change.

The voting turnout for this election, the fifth election in about three and a half years, was just over 80% of eligible votes, which is quite high for a western democracy these days and Israel's highest turnout since 1999.

One of the big reasons for the current state of affairs is the results among the Israeli Arab population.  In the past several elections, there were three Arab parties running together - Hadash, Ta'al and Bal'ad  These are generally anti-Zionist parties - who have in the past reached numbers as high as 15-16 seats.  Leading up to this election, Hadash and Ta'al began to discuss the possibility of cooperating with a Zionist government.  The most extreme party of the three - Bal'ad - broke off from the coaltion as the prospect of cooperating in any way with a Zionist government was unacceptable.  

Following that break-up - the Hadash-Ta'al coalition of two Arab parties is in line to obtain 5 seats.  But Bal'ad is apparently likely to finish below the required cut-off perentage of 3.25%, which would leave the party outside of the Knesset.  This means that the total Arab representation in the Knesset would only be 5 seats from Hadash-Ta'al and 5 seats from Ra'am.  Ra'am is a party that entered into a coalition agreement in the most recent government.  Hadash-Ta'al and Bal'ad are both groups that generally have no interest in cooperating with a sitting Israeli Zionist government.

According to some reports, Bal'ad is polling at more than 3.1%.  If it gets to 3.25%, it would suddenly pick up 4 seats - and 2 of those seats reportedly could come from the right wing bloc.  In other words, there is a still a chance between now and the end of the week that Bibi's bloc could  be reduced to 60 seats, which would mean a stalemate.   However, the way things are trending at this point, that does not seem likely.

Assuming that these results hold up, this will be the furthest right-wing government that Israel has ever had.  The Shas party has been a government partner several times.  They will insist on increased funding for yeshivas, prefential housing arrangements for yeshiva students  and their families, an end to any discussion of mandatory enlistment to the army for ultra-religious men, and an end to any discussed requirements of forcing the ultra-religious to study secular subjects in their schools and institutions.  They will also ask for huge budgets for their party and their constituency - all  to be overseen by  their leader Aryah Deri, a convicted fraudster.  He previously spent years in prison for bribery and corruption while serving as the Minister of the Interior.  But he made a comeback years later, was re-elected as leader of the Shas party and now has 10 seats or more.

The United Torah Judaism party will make similar demands to those of Shas - though for their constituency.  They  will seek greater power for the rabbinate and will launch ongoing attacks on gender equality as they have in the past.  They strongly oppose LGBTQ rights, gender equality, science (generally) and secular law.  Having sat in the opposition for the past year and half, they are hungry to make up for the lost time and will present Netanyahu with quite a large list of demands.

The largest coalition partner for Netanyahu, the RZ party, has never played  such an active role in the government.  The RZ party has proposed  removing the  offences of corruption and public breach of trust from the criminal code, which would  effectively end Netanyahu's trial.  They seek to appoint a majority  of right wing judges to the courts, to "untie the hands" of soldiers and  police in dealing with Palestinian  and Arab violence and they aim to expend the settlements, provide greater protection for settlers in Judea and Samaria (the "west bank") and take a much harder line towards the Palestinians and Palestinian terrorism and attacks.  Some of the demands of the RZ may conflict with the two ultra-religious parties  since the RZ members do believe in studying secular subjects, they work, serve in the army and pay taxes (unlike many of the ultra-Orthodox).  They have called for the institution of  capital punishment for terrorists, the expulsion of "non-loyal" Palestinians from the country and a range of other far-right policies.

Netanyahu is certainly aware that Israel would face a major international backlash if it were to  implement some  of these policies.  At the same time, he has promised to support these parties as part of his election campaign.  In his speech tonight, he called for the restoration of  "Israeli pride" and claimed that Israel needs to show the world that it is strong and not weak.  Perhaps his partners will insist, for example, on a military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.

If Netanyahu were to implement much or all of this agenda, as demanded by his three coalition partners, the country would start to look like Turkey or even Iran.  Netanyahu is not necessarily interested in going that far and some of his fellow Likud members are also likely to resist some of this agenda.  But it is a rather motley group.  Israelis in the centre  and on the left are not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking about what lies ahead.

If the results hold up and Netanyahu can enter coalition agreements with these three partners, he is likely to have a reasonably stable government for the next 3-4 years, even if it is one that generates lots of negative publicity and makes some very unpopular decisions.  I hope that saner heads will prevail and  that the government will act in a reasonably measured fashion.  if it does not, we may see a tech "brain drain" and enormous damage to the Israeli economy and world image.  

Some are still hoping that, somehow, overnight, the numbers will magically change.  As the  evening progresses, this seems to be less and less likely.  It is far more likely that in the coming weeks, we will see the reinstallation of Prime Minister Netanyahu - a reincarnation that seems likely to  seek vindication, vengance and most importantly, historical rehabilitation.  

I wish Medinat Yisrael (the State of Israel) and Am Yisrael (the people of Israel) the best of luck.

Less Than Two Weeks Until Israeli Elections...

Itamar Ben-Gvir (Rueters)

We are officially into the period that is called "after the Holidays" in Israel, where everyone is supposed to attend to the list of things that they have been putting off.  The holiday period began with Rosh Hashanah on September 26, 2022 and has now ended with Simchat Torah on October 17, 2022, the last day of "Yom Tov" until Passover.  It would be nice to spread the holidays out a bit more.  Although Chanukah is in December, it is a "minor" holiday - so Israelis do not generally get any paid days off at that time.  We would do well to pick up the Canadian example - and turn a bunch of weekends into long weekends for no particularly discernible reason - other than to give people a bit of a break.

For many Israelis, not much work took place during this holiday period.  Universities hadn't yet reopened, many people took extended vacations out of the country and people were generally in holiday mode.  This whole time period occurred during an election campaign, which also seemed to be operating at a much slower pace.

But now, it is back to work, back to school, back to the grind and back to the election campaign. Less than two weeks to go until the election (which is actually a national holiday in Israel) and no defined public holidays for some time, other than election day itself.

So in preparation for the big day, I have put together a bit of a rundown on the competing parties with some running commentary.  If you are not particularly interested in the upcoming Israeli elections - I will be writing another blog shortly on some other topics - so I guess you can skip this one - though I'll try to make it as digestible as I can.

If you have been reading my blogs over the years, you will recall that I have written several of these before.  Some of the content will remain fairly similar since many of the parties are still the same.  But some parties have changed and there have been some other shake ups.  In a way, I think there is less to cover this time around since there are fewer parties.  There are 11 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset and two more that have a chance but are likely to miss the cut off.  While this is still quite a bit in comparison to the number of parties in Canada, the U.S. or many other places, it is somewhat more manageable than it has been in recent years.

So here goes....

A Look at the List of Parties:

1.    The Likud

Led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi"), the Likud is poised to garner the most seats of any party running, which is also the situation in the current Knesset.  Current polls have put the  Likud party at anywhere between 30 and 35 seats.  Interestingly, two polls that were released yesterday were the ones that had Likud at 30 and 31 seats, the lowest showing for Likud in several months.

Likud is a right of centre party emphasizing somewhat free market economics, a hard line position towards the Palestinians and a willingness to compromise on just about anything in the social-economic sphere with the ultra-orthodox parties in order to attain power.  

Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving Prime Minister, having served as Prime Minister for more than 15 years in total.  He knows his way around an election campaign. At the same time, he is in the midst of a criminal trial on three sets of charges including bribery, deception and breach of public trust.  It is hard to read how the trial is going since much of it is not open to the public and it is such a long trial.  But there is no indication that it is going to end any time soon although some plea bargain negotiations have taken place.

In order to form a government, the Likud will need to combine their 30-35 seats with a sufficient additional number to reach 61 (the required majority in the 120 seat Knesset) by entering coalition agreements with other parties.  According to recent polls, Bibi and his potential partners are likely to wind up with a total of between 58 and 62 seats so it is really quite a toss-up.

Netanyahu has been running an energetic and interesting campaign.  He has released a biography - just three weeks before the election - in English and Hebrew.  He has held write-in contests and visited in the Sukkahs of winning Israeli families across the country.  He has run an extremely active twitter and social media campaign and has avoided being interviewed.

Despite his ongoing legal troubles, Bibi has managed to reign in his Likud party and keep a lid on any public dissent.  It is quite comparable to what Trump has been able to do in the U.S. with the Republican party, though Trump has probably faced more internal dissent than Bibi.  

The focus of Bibi's campaign has been to portray Prime Minister Yair Lapid as "weak" and a "sell-out."  For Bibi and the Likud, the campaign has not been particularly ideological.  He has attacked Lapid and the left wing parties, Meretz and Labour, arguing that they will sell out Israel to the Arabs and the Arab parties.  He has attacked Ayelet Shaked with the same line of attack.  But he has also had to fend off the extremists to his right by moving a bit to the centre on some social issues.  

I would say that his messages have lacked cohesion but there is a common theme.  It is mainly about getting Bibi back into power and finding a way to resolve his legal issues.  It is the cult of personality that "only Bibi" can run the country.  

As of now, it seems that the odds are pretty close to 50-50 that he will be able to form a government.  One option is that Likud and its coalition partners - the two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party - will get more than 61.  If that is the case, Israel will have the furthest right government that it has ever had in power.  It will be a government in which Bibi will be at the left (or even far left) of the governing coalition.

A second option is that the Likud and its bloc will fall just short - at 58-60.  This might produce a stalemate and another election.  Alternatively - one of the parties in the opposition might agree to make a deal and join the government. As of now, it is hard to imagine which party would do that.  I don't believe that it would be Yesh Atid or Meretz but it is possible that some of the members of Gantz's party, the "national unity" party could be pursuaded with the right offer.  They will have a very hard time joining a government with the RZ party but stranger things have happened in Israeli political history.  Likud will also lobby the Labour party and the Ra'am party with various offers.  

My conclusion is that the Likud has the best chance of forming a government unless the poll numbers change drastically.  If Likud cannot form a government, there is a reasonable chance that there will be another election.  The current governing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, seems unlikely to muster sufficient support but that is the third most likely outcome.

2. Yesh Atid

Led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid is the second largest party according to every poll that has been issued.  The party is a centrist party, willing to enter into coalition agreements with parties across the political spectrum. Yesh Atid is very strong on anti-corruption measures and is one of the few parties that is unwilling, under any circumstances, to provide a "get out of jail free card" to Bibi.  

According to recent polls, Yesh Atid is running at between 23 and 26 seats.  The two most recent polls put them at 25.

Lapid has so far run a fairly low key campaign.  He has focused on performing his duties as Prime Minister.  Over the past few weeks, that has included negotiating a territorial waters deal with Lebanon to address the issue of natual gas reservoirs in disputed waters.  He has also been pushing for a more pro-Ukranian Israeli policy and more of a break from Israeli relations with Russia.  This would contrast with Bibi who prides himself on his strong relationship with Putin and has been eerily silent on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yesh Atid will probably ramp up its campaign over these crucial weeks but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful.  Lapid has been careful not to attack the parties on his left too much because some of them are perilously close to not passing the electoral threshhold.  At the same time, he would like to have sufficient army and military credibility to retain support of the centre-right.  I would imagine that he will ramp up the attacks on Bibi and corruption over the next two weeks, while also emphasizing the extreme nature of the government that Bibi would form if he wins the election.

As of now, it seems unlikely that Yesh Atid can win this election.  I think they would need to get to 30 or 31 seats, which they don't seem to have.  Even then, they would also need their coalition partners to have enough to reach 61.  I guess we will have to see what Lapid can do over the next two weeks of campaigning and whether he can close the gap.  If he can't, his next best option is a stalement - which is almost as good as a win.  Lapid would continue to be the caretaker Prime Minister, another election would be called three or four months down the road and the pressure would probably increase on Bibi to step down.  At some point, if Bibi doesn't win, the dissent in his party is likely to start to grow.  

So overall, a win for Lapid and his coaltion does not look likely  - I think less than 20%.  But the chance of a stalemate is close to 40% and that is probably close enough to a win for Lapid.  That is, as long as none of his coalition partners bolt and join Bibi.

3. National Unity

This is Benjamin Gantz's party that was formerly "Blue and White" and includes Gideon Sa'ar.  The party is chock full of military - including the leader himself.  Politically they are centre-right, a bit to the right of Yesh Atid on most issues.  In fact, a number of the National Unity members are former Likud members who might even like to run for Likud if it was led by a different leader.  

Gantz has in the past buckled and formed a rotation government deal with Bibi, though as we know, Bibi took his turn and then collapsed the government before Gantz could become Prime Minister by refusing to pass a budget.  This National Unity party is running at a solid 11-12 seats.

They have been running as the party that could be the alternative to Netanyahu since they maintain that they would be more attractive to the ultra-orthodox than Lapid.  With all due respect to Gantz, I don't see it.  He is not a charismatic leader and from where I sit, seems to have little chance of forming the government.

His party stole Bibi's slogan outright and ran on the slogan "Only Gantz can do it" - which was Bibi's slogan the past few elections.  His party has also plastered posters everywhere saying "After him" or "Follow him" I suppose.  But since very few people see him as a strong leader, these posters seem to be somewhat comical.  

I think there is a chance that this party could end up with 9 or 10 seats.  However, in order to form a government, Lapid needs Gantz's party to have a good showing and wind up in the 11-12 range - while getting 30-32 himself.  It's tough call since these two parties are fighting over some of the same voters.

4. Religious Zionists

The biggest growth for any party is in the support for the Religious Zionist party, which is a coalition of three different far right parties.  The party is led by Betzalel Smotrich, an extreme nationalist.  He advocates running the State of Israel based on "Torah law."  He at one point declared himself to be a "proud homophobe" and generates all kinds of controveries just about every time he speaks.  Just this week, he proposed legislation that would remove the offences of breach of trust and deception from the Israeli criminal code, which would all but ensure that Bibi's trial would end.   

The party also features Itamar Ben Gvir, another gun-toting extremist, who has a history of extremism and involvement with the Kahanist movement.  Ben Gvir has, in the past, advocated expelling "disloyal" Arabs from Israel.

This fine collection of folks is currently polling at numbers between 12 and 15 seats.  If they wind up with those numbers, they will be indespensible to any coalition that Bibi might put together and will demand cabinet seats.  

This would certainly create significant international pressure.  A government with such far-right extremists would greatly harm Israel's image, not to mention the domestic damage that it would engender.

Some of this support has come from people who previously supported Bennett's party, the "Jewish Home," which is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  The RZ party also received boosts in its support as a result of riots in Lod, Acre and other parts of Israel where Israeli Arabs took part in violent acts against Jewish civilians in Israeli cities. Apparently, there are also many young Israelis poised to vote for this party.

I think we should all be concerned.  I would imagine that many people will refuse to tell polsters that they are voting for the RZ party.  I think they could wind up with 15-17 seats.  If they take those seats from Likud votes, that still might not change the overall bloc numbers.  But a government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in its cabinet is frightening indeed.

The Israeli TV show "Eretz Nehederet" ("Its a wonderful country") satirized the prospect of a Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government by using a clip called "Springtime for Hitler" from the show The Producers.  Here is the clip in case you are interested - though I don't think there are subtitles.  Brilliant but frightening satire in my view....

5. Shas and 6. Torah Judaism

Shas and Torah Judaism are two ultra-orthodox parties.  

Shas is led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and appeals to Jews of "Mizrahi" (eastern) origin - i.e. sephardic Jews.  For some reason, Shas also gets a lot of support from non-ultra-orthodox Israelis.  They claim that they are a socially activist party - out to help the poor get better access to medical care, religious education, food etc.,  Shas is polling at 7-8 seats which it seems to get consistently no matter what else is happening.  They have pledged to stick with Bibi, who will be happy to pay just about any price that they demand for their support.

Torah Judaism is an ultra-religious party mainly supported by Jews of western origin ("Ashkenazim").  They are more focused on getting money for Yeshivas, implementing stricter religious laws, defending the rabbinate and avoiding military service.  Their leaders have also faced criminal charges on several occasions and they are as likely as anyone else to make outrageous comments about gays, women, reform Jews and anyone else who is not ultra-orthodox.  The are polling at 6-7 seats and are also committed to joining Bibi for the right price.  However, some Torah Judaism members have speculated, out loud, that they might consider joining another government if the only alternative was being part of the opposition.  So there may be a narrow window here.  If Bibi can't form a government, another group might be able to buy the support of Torah Judaism.  This is where Gantz comes in.  He seems to think he can convince both Shas and Torah Judaism to separate from Bibi and join his party as part of a coaltion.

However, using Gantz's math, lets say he gets 13 seats.  Add the 14-15 from Shas and Torah Judaism - and that gets us to 27-28.  He would need to get Lapid on side - with 25-30 and then some of the other left parties - which are somewhat anti-ultra Orthodox.  Again, I don't see this happening but I suppose anything is possible.

7. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home)

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, this party has historically been supported by Russian speaking Israelis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected support for the party since Lieberman, in the past, has been a strong Putin supporter.  He would like to keep Israel close to neutral in the war but this has started to create a backlash, especially among Russian speakers with Ukrainian origins.  Lieberman is seen has having done a fairly good job as finance minister in the current government and is likely to support Lapid again.  The party tends to be to the right on national security issues but avowedly secular on state-religion issues.  In Israeli political terms, that means that they see eye to eye with the anti-Haredi left on some issue but are closely aligned with Likud views (or even more right wing views) on some other issues - including issues involving the Palestinians.  They are polling at 5-7 seats.

8. Meretz and 9. Labor

These two parties are the stalwarts of the Israeli left.  Labor has traditionally been aligned with the Histadrut the largest workers' union in Israel. It is currently led by Merav Michaeli who has also brought a strong general equality focus to the party. The party is polling in the range of 4 to 6 seats.  It is most likely to join a government with Lapid and highly unlikely to consider joining Bibi.  

Meretz has traditionally been the most left wing Israeli party with a focus on secularism and equality and has been a strong advocate for a resolution with the Palestinians as well as for Arab-Jewish equality within the state.  The most recent leader of Meretz, Nitzan Horowitz, has served in the cabinet of the current government.  He stepped down after the election was called and was replaced by Zehava Gal-On who has pledged to bring the party "back to its roots."  Meretz is likely to support a Yesh Atid government and highly unlikely to join Netanyah or any government with the ultra-religious.  They are polling at 4 to 6 seats.

10. Hadash-Ta'al and 12. Bal'ad

For the past few elections, three Arab Israeli parties have run under one umbrella as the "United Arab List" or the "United Joint List."  They have been able to muster as many as 12 to 15 seats.  This year, they had a falling out and one party, the most extremist, "Bal'ad" left the group. Balad is now running at less than 2% and will most likely not make the cut off.  Hadash Ta'al is polling at 4 seats, which seems suprisingly low but is probably due to significant Arab Israeli apathy for the coming elections.  Hadash Ta'al has never taken an active role in an Israeli government though they have supported legislation and votes "from the outside."  While Balad was unwilling to be part of any Israeli government in any circumstances, Hadash Ta'al might look to the recent Ra'am example and try to negotiate itself into the government.  The right wing Jewish parties have argued that this would be illegitimate since Hadash Ta'al are generally anti-Zionist parties.  Hadash Ta'al would have to be prepared to accept Israel as a Jewish state to enter the government.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to take this step.  At a minimum these parties could be the key to preventing Bibi from forming a government.

13. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, Ra'am played an active role in the most recent Israeli government, the first time ever that an Arab Israeli party formed an active part of a governing coalition.  Although there were hiccups, Ra'am would almost certainly join Lapid again if that could lead to a government being formed.  Ra'am is currently polling at about 4 seats.  On social and economic issues, they are further to the right than Hadash Ta'al since Ra'am party members are religious Muslims.  Hadash Ta'al tend to be more secular socialists.  In the past, Bibi had tried to negotiate with Ra'am.  At this point, however, the RZ party is likely to be a key component of any government that Bibi might form.  And they have stated repeatedly and emphatically that they will not join a government with Ra'am or any other Arab Israeli parties.  So Ra'am's only option will be to join a Lapid government (or a Gantz government if can come up with a credible option).

14. Habayit Hayehudi

This is former Prime Minster Bennett's party.  He has left politics.  The party is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  This was once a religious Zionist party, but Shaked is avowedly secular.  She is on the right of political spectrum but she took an active role in the most recent government as a cabinet minister.  She has now said that all of that was a mistake and that she shouldn't have joined.  One of her campaign slogans stated that "everything is forgiven on Yom Kippur" and she has publicly apologized for "sinning against her voters."  They don't seem to be listening or granting the repentance that she is seeking.  She is well under the requisite threshhold according to every poll that has been released.  She is willing to join a Bibi-led government if she gets past the threshold.  Her willingness to do this - leaves potential voters wondering why they should vote for her instead of just voting for Bibi.

Conclusion

Given all of this math, there are aren't too many realistic possibilities.  But here they are, handicapped by an amateur (yours truly)...just for you lucky readers.

1. Bibi forms a government with 61+ including the two Haredi parties and the RZ party.  38%

2. Stalemate - and a new election is called - 32%

3. Lapid forms a government with or without the support of Hadash/Ta'al - 20%

4. Gantz forms a government, with one or both of the Haredi parties - 5%

5. Some other government or option that I haven't thought of....5%.

Of course it is impossible to measure how well I do - since if any one of these occur - we will never really know how likely that event was - only that it actually occurred.   

I might adjust my odds as the election gets closer based on news, events and newer polls.  But for now. buckle up.  It should be a bumpy ride and I think there is a good chance that we will not really know where things are headed until at least a few weeks after the election, which is taking place on November 1, 2022.

I hope that you have found this useful.  I will probably send out another blog shortly addressing some issues with much less politics.  Wishing everyone a terrific 5783 and all the best in this "after the holidays" period.

October 2022 - Day Before Yom Kippur

It is the day before Yom Kippur - the holiest day of the Jewish Calendar.  Okay there is an argument about that - it may well be that Shabbat - every Saturday - is actually considered the holiest day - but let's put that aside for a bit.  If you have never been to Israel on Yom  Kippur - it is really an amazing experience.  All traffic ceases to a halt - other than an handful of emergency and security vehicles.  Even secular Israelis refrain from using their cars.  There is no "law" that bans cars - but I guess the collective society has decided that everyone is willing to agree to make the day special.

Non observant Israelis have turned Yom Kippur into a national biking holiday.  People who are not going to synagogue - get on their bikes - by themselves or with friends and family.  Some take cross country routes - using highways that are normally filled with cars but are now filled only with bicycles.  Some use the opportunity to teach their children to ride bikes - since there are so many "safe" places to do that on this day.  Others use skateboards, roller blades or even electric bikes - and some just walk or jog.

So far, we have stayed on the sidelines from this alternate Yom Kippur celebration - since we tend to observe the day in more traditional fashion.  It would actually be quite amazing to be able to do both - have one day a year with no cars just for biking and walking - without that day falling on Yom  Kippur.  But I guess life is always filled with choices.

Instead, as you might  know, we join our friends and Synagogue community in running Yom Kippur prayer services - tefillot.  For the past 10-15 years, we have been running a satellite service  in Ra'anana - since our main synagogue is in K'far Saba - about 7 km away.   We either hold it in an available synagogue in Ra'anana (some synagogues rent out gyms or halls for Yom Kippur since there are too many people for their synagogue) or we use someone's house or backyard.  We have hosted once but fortunately we have found another venue at a lucky friend's house.  I have been conducting the Neilah service for somewhere in the range of 10 years.  That is the last service of Yom Kippur which runs for about the last hour and half of the fast (no food no water for 26 hours) - and everyone  is standing for most of it - while I get to sing prayers  for most of that time....hopefully with everyone  joining in.

About three or four years ago, we added the Kol Nidrei service - before that - everyone in our group was attending at other synagogues or walking to our shul in K'far Saba.  I agreed to take that on - so that is another 2 hours or so of singing at the start of the fast.  On top of that, we have a full service in the morning - though we abbreviate it a bit.  Lots  of work to do there to  share the Torah reading etc.,  All in all, it is quite a bit of preparation, quite an investment  of  time - but quite rewarding.  Hopefully it is spiritually rewarding for those attending.  

So really - I should probably be preparing  some more now - "cramming" rather  than taking the time to write  this blog.  Or cooking for the pre-fast meal....Or cooking for the break-fast meal....or  resting.  Well.  Much of the cooking is done.  And I think I'm fairly ready since I have done this  more than a few times.  But it always helps to review.

As I am writing - tens of thousands of people are at the Kotel in Jerusalem, attending at the annual last minute selichot ("forgiveness") prayers.  People come from all over the country to sing  and pray late into the night.  Since driving  is permitted  - people are able to attend selichot from anywhere in the country whereas during Yom Kippur itself, people can only get to the Kotel if they can walk there.  Or bike, I suppose....

There are some  people who manage the blend the  two.  Perhaps they bike all day on Yom Kippur and then find  some Neilah service to attend where  they can hear the final shofar blown marking the end of Yom  Kippur.  Even at our small service, we probably wind up with double the normal number right near the end.   We were once at a synagogue in Mazkeret  Batya (a small town near Rehovot) for the Neilah service.  As the end  of Yom Kippur drew near, the synagogue filled up so completely it was standing  room only.  In fact, people were looking in to the synagogue from windows surrounding the building and at the door entrance.  It was like everyone  in the town showed up - secular and religious  for the last 15-20 minutes of Yom Kippur.  All waiting for the sound  of final shofar note.

Election Update

As you might also know, Israel's next election is only one month away.  It will be held on November 2, 2022.  This blog would be too long if I reviewed all of the political parties and their chances so I will do that in another blog - closer to the  actual election.  But I do have a few short comments.

First of all, there is a reasonable chance that this 2022 election will end  up in a stalemate.  Former  Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party are polling at anywhere from 30-35 seats.  No Israeli party ever manages to get a majority government by itself - with 61 seats required to form a government in the 120 seat Knesset.  Netanyahu is counting on the support of two ultra-religious parties - Shas (Ultra-religious Sephardic party) and Yehadut HaTorah (Torah Judaism) - which are likely to get about 14 seats combined.  He is also counting  on support from an ultra-right party - the Religious Zionist  party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar  Ben Gvir.  These are some pretty scary folks - who would like to turn Israel into a state run according to Jewish religious law - and  have little appreciation for democracy.   But for some reason, they are polling at somewhere in the range of 10-13 seats, which is shockingly high.  So  if you add all of that up - there is a scenario where these four parties  could combine and get past  61 and form a government.   It would be Israel's most right wing government ever, heavily weighted with religious extremists.   It would also be a government that  would be likely to help Netanyahu get out  of his legal troubles even though he is in the middle of a criminal trial.

The Israeli Knesset

The possibilities for the current  Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, look somewhat more  daunting.  His party has been polling at somewhere between 22 and 26  seats.  He needs a whole constellation of parties to join him, from across the political spectrum, to get to 61.  Some of those parties are flirting with crossing the election threshold - set at 4% of the total votes.  Assuming  that they all pass through - Lapid could  count  on support from Labour (left wing  workers' party,  historically), Meretz  (left wing  secularists), Yisraeli Beytenu (Right wing  nationalist/Russian immigrants party) that might all add up to Between 38 and 42.  There is another centrist  party running, led by Benny Gantz - who swears up and down that he won't  join Netanyahu (though  he did once  before).  They are polling at 10 to 12 seats, though they want to try and get Gantz into  the Prime Minister's seat.  If they join  Lapid, that could get them to between 48 and 54.  If they  cut a deal with the Ra'am (Arab/Muslim fundamentalist party) again, they could get up to between 52 and 58.  Still three short.  

So unless the numbers change dramatically between now and November 2, 2022, Israel is likely to wind up with either a stalemate and another election or a right wing government, led by Bibi.   That being said - a month is a long time.  Numbers could change quite a bit.  Buckle up.  It should be interesting.

Sports News

The Israel under 21 soccer team has qualified for the European Championships - which is very exciting for Israelis since soccer is the most popular sport  here.  Unfortunately, the senior  team  didn't  qualify for the World Cup, which starts in November in Qatar.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to qualify.   Instead of having  to play teams from its region, the Middle  East, Israel is stuck in the European division, which makes it much harder to qualify.  This is due to Israel's lack of peaceful relations with many of the surrounding  countries - or to put it another way - the refusal of those countries to recognize Israel's right to exist.   Maybe  the day is getting  closer when Israel will have to play Egypt, Jordan,  Saudi Arabia, Iran  and  Iraq to qualify.  But for now, we still have to get past France, Portugal, Germany and  others, which is much more  difficult.  

Meanwhile, with my relative lack of interest in watching soccer, I have preferred to jump on the bandwagon and  watch our home  town Blue Jays - having one of their best seasons ever.  Playoffs start this week - which means watching games that start at 2 a.m. here in Israel.  I'm hoping to be back in Toronto for some really meaningful Blue  Jay playoff games.

I'm also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills - the closest thing Toronto has to an NFL home town team.  I have been to many games in Buffalo.  While they have had some fantastic seasons, inlcuding four losing  Super Bowl appearances in a row - the 2022-23 edition of the Bills may be their best team ever.  That also means watching at some crazy hours when  I'm in Israel - though if they play a 1 p.m. game - that is a very manageable  8 p.m. start here  in Israel.

I am going to wrap this up for now and  wish everyone who is observing a Gmar Hatima Tova - may you have a meaningful fast - and be inscribed in the good books of life  and everything positive for the coming New Year.  I hope to write  some  more soon - likely with a bit more political analysis.