Bibi: My Story - A review

 

As you might know Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi") released his memoires in the midst of Israel's most recent election campaign.  He wrote the book himself in longhand over the course of the year and half or so of being the leader of the opposition in the Israeli Knesset.  I couldn't resist picking up a copy and comparing it to the other books on Bibi that I have read and reviewed.

As you might recall, I wrote this review of the book "Bibi" by Anshel Pfeffer and this review of Ben Caspit's book The Netanyahu Years.  I have not yet read any other reviews of Bibi's book but I did go back and look at my reviews of these other two books to compare.

For starters, I have to say that I quite enjoyed reading the book.  Netanyahu is a very skilled communicator.  The book flows well, is very readable and contains some very interesting stories and antecdotes.

I would say that it is structured like a legal argument rather than a true biography.  It is presented as an argument for Bibi's legacy.  Netanyahu asserts that he, almost singlehandedly, reformed the Israeli economy from a socialist leaning, old style economy to a modern capitalist society and moved Israel from a developing country to one that is fully developed and closing in on a AAA credit rating.  All of this as a result of Bibi's work as Israel's Finance Minister and subsequently as Prime Minister, where he continued the work that he had started.

A second theme throughout the book is that with Bibi's background, having obtained his undergraduate degree at MIT, he was keenly aware of the power of technology and made technological development a priority throughout the course of his tenure as Israel's Prime Minister, leading to Israel's recognition as a true technological powerhouse.

A third theme is that the key to Middle East peace is bypassing the Palestinians, since they aren't really interested in a deal anyways and developing peace with other Arab countries first as a precondition to resolving the whole of the middle east conflict.  I will come back to this shortly.

A fourth theme is that the focus of Bibi's foreign policy efforts since 1999 or even earlier has been to see Iran as the real threat and focus on containment of Iran and prevention of the Iranian development of a nuclear bomb.

A fifth theme is to raise the profile of his father, his wife Sara, his sons Yair and Avner and brush away or deflect any criticism of any of them.  From the descriptions of Sara that Netanyahu has provided, it is hard to imagine a kinder, more perfect, more gracious, more supportive spouse than Sara.  But,of course, perhaps this is all in response to the various other Bibi books including those by Caspit and Pfeffer that strongly suggest otherwise.

So how does Bibi fare with these arguments?

Interestingly, he starts off by saying that a good lawyer, when appearing in court, often leads by diffusing the strongest arguments that opponents might present.  Bibi's first parts of the book deal with the tragic death of his brother Yoni in the course of the Entebbe raid, his own academic accomplishments, which are indeed impressive, and his analysis of the history of Israel, Zionism and the importance of a strong, militarily capable, home for the Jewish people.  

Bibi puts forward arguments for the importance of a strong free market economy and traces his Zionism back to the Zionism of Jabotinsky and his successors, many of whom became Likud party members, as opposed to the more socialist bent of the Labor party that dominated Israeli political life for so many years.  

Much of this analysis is cogent and convincing.  But these are certainly the strongest points that Bibi would have to put forward and they are what he tackles first.  That might be due to chronology but I note that he starts with his brother Yoni and then goes back in time.  This is a particularly deliberate choice, which partially responds to some of the criticisms made by Pfeffer and Caspit about the cynical use of Yoni's legacy by Bibi and his family.

As the book moves on, a few things became particularly interesting.

One thought I had was that a great deal of the book is "Bibi's spin" on different historical events irrespective of how accurate that spin might be.  The other thought I had was what was left out as opposed to what was included.  This is certainly not a "comprehensive" book even though it is 650 pages long.  

Certainly Bibi's contributions to the change in Israel's economy are significant. Israel has become a booming modern country with skyscrapers galore.  At the same time, the cost of living has skyrocketed, the gap between the wealthy and the poor has increased dramatically, and wealth has become ever more concentrated in the hands of very few.  No comments from Bibi about these issues, other than some platitudes that suggest that everyone is now better off and would not have been if Israel had followed different policies.

Many political figures, industry leaders and others contributed to the change in Israel's economic structure and I am somewhat skeptical that Bibi's role is as singularly definitive as he asserts.

Having read many other books about how Israel has become a technological superpower, I find it very difficult to give Bibi as much credit as he would like to take in this area. For example, steps taken by Shimon Peres to develop Israel's Air Force and other military technology were dramatic as were many taken by Ehud Barak.  Moreover, many different private companies as well as private-public consortiums have focused on technological development.  Although Bibi clearly appreciates all of these developments, I find his efforts to take credit for them less convincing.

Bibi's recount of his dealings with the Palestinians is a whole different story.

I found Bibi's analysis of dealings with President Bill Clinton quite interesting.  Although he recognizes that Clinton was well intentioned, he accuses of Clinton of buying the "Palestine first" narrative and focusing all of his efforts on persuading Israel to accept a deal rather than pushing the Palestinians.  Here, there is a reasonable argument that Bibi's version is sound.  Even Clinton in his later writings noted that despite all of the concessions that he was able to wrangle out of the Israeli side, Arafat was still not prepared to accept the deal.  And that is Bibi's thesis, that Palestinian rejectionism is, primarily, what has led to the current situation.  That being said, this does not, in my view, mean that the resolution of Palestinian issues is of a much lower level of importance, even if it is extremely difficult to attain.

Bibi also spends a great deal of time on his relationship with President Obama.  Bibi is somewhat more deferential than I had expected, particularly given the relationship between these two.  He points out Obama's decision to "recalibrate" the relationship in the Middle East after first becoming President by visiting a host of Arab countries but not Israel.  He also discusses the failed policy of bolstering the "Arab Spring" and the disaster that occurred in Egypt when Morsi took over.  That being said, Bibi outlines some of the differences of opinion and concludes that Obama was probably the "toughest opponent he had ever faced."  In fact, in reading some of the discussions and arguments that Bibi recalls having with President Obama, it is not clear to me Bibi's position is the more convincing one.

Bibi goes out of his away to try and explain away all of the different incidents in which he was accused of trying to embarrass and humiliate President Obama.  Here, I didn't find him that convincing.  Although he claims that it was all about the Iranian threat, the Israeli interests and his commitment to remaining bi-partisan, I just don't think that meshes with the manner in which events really played out.  He highlights that his differences with Obama were all about "POLICY" (which he puts in capital letters).  But in my view, other historical accounts are far more convincing - suggesting that Bibi deliberately set out to humiliate Obama and tilt Israel policy towards the Republicans. 

Moving on to Trump, I would say that, reading between the lines, Bibi is much less complimentary of Trump.  Although Trump was a "committed friend" who was willing to give in to Bibi on a whole range of issues including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan and putting together a proposed peace deal with the Palestinians without any Palestinian input, there is little true respect shown for Trump, perhaps deservedly show.

The one area where Bibi does show appreciation for Trump is in the development and negotiation of the Abraham accords, though the book suggests that these are all really Bibi's creations, which he was able to foist onto Trump as a priority.  On the other hand, Bibi claims that Trump had promised to recognize Israeli sovereignty over much of the West Bank and has some very harsh words for Trump over the U.S. decision to back out of this commitment, even though some have argued that this was all used as a smoke screen to make progress with the UAE and Bahrain.

Ultimately, even with Trump, Bibi still had to deal with the U.S. (and worldwide) position that Israel needs to come to a political solution with the Palestinians.  Whether it is the Clinton Plan, the Obama Plan, the Saudi Plan, the Trump Plan, or anyone else's, if it is to be a viable solution that also protects Israeli demographic interests, there will need to be a Palestinian State, or some form of separation of the two peoples, with a Palestinian territory being the one that can address any Palestinian refugee claims.  

But Bibi has no time for this argument.  I was waiting to see what he might outline, in the book, as his proposed solution.  What is the Bibi plan? Perhaps, I thought, he was a "Jordan is Palestine" proponent (given that more than 70% of the Jordanian population is Palestinian).  No, he explicitly rules that out as dangerous in no uncertain terms.  Maybe he supports a population transfer and/or incentives to the Palestinians to relocate?  No suggestion of that as a policy, even though he is now entering a coaltion government with 14 coalition members from the Religious Zionist Party that support that approach.  Two state supporter?  Well even though he accepted that in principle after much arm twisting from past U.S. Presidents, he leaves little doubt that he opposes a two state solution in this book.  

Ultimately, the best I could discern, to use hockey terminology - his preference would be to "rag the puck" (i.e. just to kill time).  He favours a continuation of the current status quo with only minor changes to the way things have been going with the hope that one day, the problem will just go away.  This just does not seem like a viable long term solution.  If Israel moves to annex large amounts of Judea and Samaria, as now requested by the Religious Zionist coalition, we will be closer to an apartheid type of regime, unless when Israel annexes these territories it also grants full and equal citizenship for all of the people living in the territories irrespective of religious background.  If it simply de facto annexes these areas, Israel will continue on with a smouldering situation, trying to control a hostile population of millions of Palestinians.  Ultimately, Bibi fails to propose any type of viable solution for the current conflict with the Palestinians and even castigates all of those leaders who have tried to resolve it.

That is not to say that there is an ideal solution.  There is a great deal of historical truth to Bibi's assessments of Arafat and Abbas (both as two-faced liars and terror supporters) as well as his assessments of past U.S. Presidents including Clinton and Obama (both of whom naively thought that the Palestinian leadership would agree to a deal).  However, there is also something to the thesis argued by Caspit and Pfeffer.  Bibi had a golden opportunity with a sympathetic U.S. President in Trump, a powerful domestic political position and even a solid relationship with Putin and other European leaders, while at the same time, developing ties with a range of other Arab countries.  He could have tried to use this position of great strength to come up with a viable solution, even if it would be difficult to sell to the Palestinians.  Perhaps he could have obtained worldwide support to impose a solution.  There is little to show, from Bibi's account, that he made any such efforts or that he has any vision that he is willing to share about how to resolve the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

On the Iranian policy side, Bibi spends quite a bit of time dealing with his battle with President Obama on the COJPA and his fight to stop the agreement or have it shredded.  He outlines many of the flaws with the agreement and it is hard to argue with him that the agreement would have done anything other than delay Iranian nuclear armaments by 10-15 years.  He characterizes this whole issue as existential, perhaps one of the most existential threats that Israel has ever faced.

However, now that he "succeeded" in shredding the agreement, what did he accomplish?  Trump refused to bomb Iran's nuclear program or even threaten to do so.  Iran is moving ahead with its program at breakneck speed.  Perhaps Bibi is simply laying the groundwork for justification of a pending Israeli military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.  I guess we will see.  But from what I have read from various sources, there are a whole host of concerns about that option.  It may lead to large, wholesale war that would cause enormous loss of life in Israel.  The U.S. may oppose this type of attack - as might a range of allies.  Israel may not even have the full military capability to reach these underground nuclear sites and destroy all of them.  And ultimately, this may only set the program back by a short period of time and may lead Iran to redouble its efforts.

Overall, there may well have been other options, including different approachs with Obama and Trump that may have led to a better deal that would have actually stopped the program, with a combination of threats and incentives.

With respect to Bibi's attempts to rehabilitate the reputations of his family members, including Yair and Sara, in particular, his words just don't sound credible, especially given the multitude of stories about incidents involving these two.  For example, he dismisses the fact that Sara pled guilty to criminal charges by arguing that it was all trumped up and the plea bargain was done to end the matter and avoid any further publicity and hassle.  Here, again, the actual facts suggest otherwise.

Bibi devotes a short part of the book to dismissing all of the charges against him as "trumped up," "sewn together" and purely political.  I guess it remains to be seen what will happen with his trial.  Suffice it to say that the initial evidence was deemed as so overhwelming against Bibi at the preliminary stages of these proceedings, that even his political allies refused to dismiss the charges against him.  Of course his new governing coalition may find other ways to end Bibi's trial but that won't really prove that the charges were ill conceived in the first place.  But getting back to Bibi's initial comments, he took the absolute weakest part of his legacy and buried it near the end of his book with a tone of dismissal and indignation, something that legal counsel might do with an argument for which they don't really have a great response.

One other thought I had was that Bibi says very little, throughout this book, of the compromises that he has had to make with the ultra-orthodox to remain in power.  Over Bibi's tenure as president, he has successively provided larger and larger amounts of money to the ultra-orthodox and has granted them with greater and greater power over a range of aspects of Israeli life.  

Although Bibi argues so passionately for the power of education and particularly scientific education, he has presided over the growth of an ever increasing number of religious institutions that refuse to teach basic secular subjects.  Although he argues for the Republican philosophy of "pulling yourself up by the bootstraps," working hard and saving your money, he has presided over a massive growth in the number of Haredi families that look to the state for their income and remain outside of the labour force.  And although he appeals to many aspects of secular culture, including literature and theatre, his deals with co-coalitionists have led to a gradual erosion in the number of public performances and presentations that include an equal gender balance and have led to ever increasing rifts with liberal Jewish communities inside and outside of Israel, including rifts with non-Orthodox Jewish communities which will surely be exacerbated under this new governing coalition.  

Bibi has very little to say about the divisiveness that he has created in Israeli society.  Although Israel has always been a country in which 2 people have 3 different opinions, the ascerbic nature of public discourse has increased exponentially, fuelled by some of Bibi's political campaigns.  He does take credit at points in his book for tactics used in this regard.

Ultimately, this book is well written, entertaining and filled with selected but interesting antecdotes.

But I have many doubts about its veracity and I have arguments with many of the different conclusions that Bibi draws.   I guess Bibi can take notes over the coming four years in preparation for adding a few more chapters.  I suppose that the jury is still out on his legacy.  Perhaps we will have a bit of a better picture when his political life finally comes to an end.

Bibi's Victory Margin has Grown

We have had several election updates today from the Israeli election authority.  More than 90% of the ballots have been counted.  However, the remaining ballots may not be fully tabulated until tomorrow morning - or even early Friday.  My discussion of the early results appears in my previous blog and not much has changed.  But here are a few key points.

1.  The Netanyahu bloc is now sitting at a very comfortable 65 seats.  That breaks down to 32 for Likud (Bibi's party), 14 for the Religious Zionist party, 11 for Sha'as and 8 for the United Torah Judaism Party.  This is the "fully right wing government" that Bibi's supporters have dreamt of.

2.  The growth in the size of the Netanyahu bloc has come at the expense, partially, of Meretz, which is now sitting at less than 3.25% and unlikely to pass the electoral threshhold.  Although there is still a chance that this leftist secular bloc could pass the threshhold, most analysts have suggested that it looks unlikely given the make up of the remaining uncounted votes.

3.  The Arab party Bal'ad is also below the threshhold.  They are also unlikely to pass.  

4.  The Labour party is apparently very close to the threshold (just over) and is facing the possibility of falling below - which could strengthen Bibi even further.  They seem likely to scrape through but it will be close.

If Meretz and Bal'ad were to both pass, which seems highly unlikely, the Likud-led bloc could fall to as low as 61 seats.  That would still leave Likud and its bloc with a majority.

What's Next?

Bibi will now have 30 days to cobble together an official coalition.  Although there will definitely be in-fighting over key cabinet ministries, it seems likely that this bloc will be able to put things together within the alotted month.  There are lots of egos here, lots of likely demands and lots of disagreements.  But compared to past coalitions that Bibi has formed, this will be relatively easy.

Among the priorities and likely steps to be taken by this new government:

1. The appointment of a new Justice Minister, some new judges and some type of steps to be taken to end Bibi's trial.  The Religious Zionist party floated the prospect of introducing legislation to remove the criminal offences of corruption and breach of trust for sitting government members.  If passed, this would effectively end Bibi's trial;

2.  Elimination of the special tax on sugary beverages (coca cola etc.,) and non-resusable plastics and other disposable materials.  The ultra-religious have complained about these taxes which were introduced by the previous government. They claim that these special taxes were directed at them since they are the highest users of these products.  The tax on disposable goods was clearly implemented as an environmental measure.   The tax on sugary beverages was imposed as a response to growing obesity among young people.

3.  Significantly increased police presence in Arab-Israeli areas and increased army presence in Palestinian areas - in an effort to reduce violence in Arab-Israeli communities and in an effort to stop the current wave of Palestinian terror attacks.

4.  Immediate legislation or special measures to significantly increase the budgets (state funding) for Yeshiva students, ultra-religious organizations, and settlement/settler organizations.

Medium Term:

I think that it is reasonable to expect that we will see government action taken in a number of areas:

1.  I expect that the Religious Zionist party will push for widespread expansion of settlement activity throughout Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank").  The government is likely to offer low cost housing, incentives for young families (especially Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox families) to move to these areas.  This will enrage Palestinians and may well bring about a third (or fourth) "intifadah."

2.  Increased power for the ultra-orthodox Rabbinical establishment including increased funding.  This could reverse the changes that were made previously to demonopolize Kosher supervision, it could lead to a complete ban on any non-Orthodox activity at the Kotel (the Western Wall) and it could make conversion to Judaism even more difficult.  I would think, for example, the "Women of the Wall" are going to be in for a very rough time.

3.  A much more boisterous and aggressive foreign policy.  We could see an increase in attacks on Hezbollah bases in Lebanon and Syria and quite possibly, increased action taken against Iran.  It is unclear how this government will position itself with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Netanyahu has always had a good relationship with Putin and Israel may be reluctant to become involved in any way in support of Ukraine.

4.  Coalition members of the incoming members have called for widespread "judicial reform."  Aside from filling the benches with right wing judges, I'm not sure what else they have planned here.  They may want further changes to the Israeli "Basic Law" to place more of an emphasis on the "Jewish" character of Israel and less of an emphasis on the "democratic" nature of the state - or on the principle of equality.

5.  If even some of these changes start to take place, Israel may well begin to face all sorts of criticism and international pressure - not only from other democratic countries but from Jews from around the world as well.

In the medium to longer term, if this coalition holds up, the Religious Zionist party will make more demands that will create tension between their party and Bibi.  Among its campaign platforms, the RZ party has, over the years, called for capital punishment for terrorists, government payments to "encourage" emigration of Arabs and Palestinians, significant changes to the Israeli legal system and other steps of the type that far right wing governments typically take.  I expect that some of the Likud members are likely to be uncomfortable with some of the demands made by the RZ coalition partners.

As an educated, westernized, English speaking politician, Netanyahu would probably be more comfortable forming a government with Gantz, Sa'ar and some of the other generals in Gantz's party, even Bennett, as opposed to a bunch of utra-orthodox and extremist politicians.  However, given his current legal troubles, and the bridges that he burned over the years with all of these people for different reasons, this was not an option so he is left to do the best with what he saw as the most promising opportunity.

Overall, Bibi ran a masterful campaign even though he and his party actually wound up with only 30-31 seats, which is lower than the numbers that they have had in the past.  The two big winners here are the Religious Zionist Party and Sha'as.  

The RZ party soaked up all of the votes that Bennett had in the past.  Bennett had run as a right wing leader but wound up in a coalition with centrist and leftist parties.  His voters were furious.  His party, which is now led by Ayelet Shaked, was eviscerated in this election.  The Shas party, despite having a leader who has been convicted twice of criminal offences, including a 2021 plea bargain deal, (or perhaps because of this) still managed to collect 10-11 seats.  That's an astounding number for this ultra-religious party but full credit to its leader, Aryah Deri, the certified fraudster.

There are several losers on the other side.  The biggest loser so far is Meretz, which may not even make the cut-off.   Their former leader, Nitzan Horowitz, served as the minister of education.  He resigned after the government fell.  Meretz brought back its past, less compromising leader, Zehava Gal'on.  She was obviously not the right choice. The Labour party and Lieberman's party are close to where they were previously though Lieberman has, in the past, reached numbers closer to 7 or 8 seats.  

For the Arab parties, the results are a disaster.  They disbanded their unified party and wound up throwing away four seats.  Having a total of only 8 or 9 Arab Israeli Knesset members is a major loss and will leave Israeli Arabs with a significantly reduced voice in state affairs.

I would also say that this was a disaster for Yair Lapid.  Although his party picked up 24 seats, which was an improvement, his move to the left probably contributed to the decline of the Meretz party - as well as to the increased strength on the right.  Lapid made several mistakes as election day approached.  His speech at the U.N. was ill-considered and made without a proper mandate.  His decision to sign off on a gas deal with Lebanon just weeks before an election was ill advised.  And his campaign, generally, was lacklustre.  While Bibi was running around the country visiting people in their homes and holding rallies, Lapid was much less visible.

In my view, to retain legitimacy, Lapid needs to open up his party to "primaries" and turn the party into a democratically functioning party rather than a one-man party.  He needs input from others towards developing medium and long term strategies and those strategies have to be formed with the equal input from a range of party members or new blood.  Even the leadership of the party should be contestable.

All of this being said, there may well be quite a bit of backlash once this new government eventually falls and the centre and centre-left will need a strong alternative to Bibi ready to jump into action and run an effective campaign.

Interesting and challenging times are ahead but, as I mentioned yesterday, Bibi is firmly in the driver's seat and everyone knows he is the boss.  He can't blame any government problems on anyone else at this point - he will have to take full responsibility for any actions that his government takes.  In effect, we will now get to see the "real Bibi."  

I will provide one more update once we have the absolute final results in, especially if anything changes.  At this point, however, there is a good chance that nothing will change dramatically.

Big Win for Netanyahu in Israeli Elections 2022 - Apparently

We are still waiting for the actual final results in the 2022 Israeli elections.  But at this point, it appears that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won a resounding victory and will be able to form a government with somewhere between 62 and 64 seats in the Knesset of 120 seats.

According to exit polls as well as the real time results that are still pouring in, Netanyahu's Likud party has captured approximately 30 seats or 25% of the eligible vote.  The  number of seats for the Likud is not at an all-time high - but it is the results of  Netanyahu's intended coalition partners that will put him in the driver's seat.

The election appears to have been a major victory for the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.  This is a far-right party that includes members who were Kahane party members in the past.  At the press conference that Ben-Gvir held earlier this evening, members were chanting "death to terrorists," referring to one of Ben-Gvir's demands that Israel institute capital punishment for terrrorists.  I was listening - and could have sworn I heard the crowd chanting "death to the Arabs" but I will give the crowd the benefit of the doubt and go with the reported chant.  The RZ party seems to be headed for 14-16 seats, a huge number for a party that has never come close to these numbers.   And a frightening number for those who prefer governments without fascist parties.

Another of Netanyahu's partners is the Shas party, the ultra-religious Sephardi party, which is being reported as winning 10 seats.  Shas has been running at 7-8  seats over the past few elections  so this is a reasonably significant improvement for them.  The other ultra-religious party - "United Torah Judaism" is being reported as winning 8 seats.

If we add up these numbers, we arrive at between 61 and 63 seats for Netanyahu and his bloc.  

Netanyahu will not have an easy time responding to the various demands for cabinet posts, huge budgets and and laundry lists  of action items from these three extreme parties.  He will also need to satisfy his own Likud members by showering them with cabinet posts.  I expect that there will be a huge cabinet - with close to 30 members if not more.

Yair Lapid's party, to this point, is registering 23 seats, which is a disappointing result for a party that was hoping to lead the government.  Some people  had expected that Yesh Atid could get up to 27-28 seats, which would have provided the party with a real opportunity to form a government.  If Yesh Atid winds up on the opposition benches for the next four years,  it will need to consider holding party primaries and acting more like a political party than a one-person show.

Benjamin Gantz's party, the National Camp, is running at about 10 seats, which is very low for a party that ran with the slogans "Only  Gantz can do it" and "After Him" (or "Follow Him").   This party is certainly disappointed with their apparent showing.

If the curent results hold up, the other "bloc" members that had worked with Yesh Atid including Labour (5), Meretz (4), and Ra'am (5) will come in at close to the predicted numbers from advance polls.  Lieberman's party is currently running at 5 seats, which is a bit lower than expected.

But overall, no matter how you slice these numbers, Lapid's best case  scenario so far is 52-53 seats.  There just does not seem to be a path to 61, even if some of the results change.

The voting turnout for this election, the fifth election in about three and a half years, was just over 80% of eligible votes, which is quite high for a western democracy these days and Israel's highest turnout since 1999.

One of the big reasons for the current state of affairs is the results among the Israeli Arab population.  In the past several elections, there were three Arab parties running together - Hadash, Ta'al and Bal'ad  These are generally anti-Zionist parties - who have in the past reached numbers as high as 15-16 seats.  Leading up to this election, Hadash and Ta'al began to discuss the possibility of cooperating with a Zionist government.  The most extreme party of the three - Bal'ad - broke off from the coaltion as the prospect of cooperating in any way with a Zionist government was unacceptable.  

Following that break-up - the Hadash-Ta'al coalition of two Arab parties is in line to obtain 5 seats.  But Bal'ad is apparently likely to finish below the required cut-off perentage of 3.25%, which would leave the party outside of the Knesset.  This means that the total Arab representation in the Knesset would only be 5 seats from Hadash-Ta'al and 5 seats from Ra'am.  Ra'am is a party that entered into a coalition agreement in the most recent government.  Hadash-Ta'al and Bal'ad are both groups that generally have no interest in cooperating with a sitting Israeli Zionist government.

According to some reports, Bal'ad is polling at more than 3.1%.  If it gets to 3.25%, it would suddenly pick up 4 seats - and 2 of those seats reportedly could come from the right wing bloc.  In other words, there is a still a chance between now and the end of the week that Bibi's bloc could  be reduced to 60 seats, which would mean a stalemate.   However, the way things are trending at this point, that does not seem likely.

Assuming that these results hold up, this will be the furthest right-wing government that Israel has ever had.  The Shas party has been a government partner several times.  They will insist on increased funding for yeshivas, prefential housing arrangements for yeshiva students  and their families, an end to any discussion of mandatory enlistment to the army for ultra-religious men, and an end to any discussed requirements of forcing the ultra-religious to study secular subjects in their schools and institutions.  They will also ask for huge budgets for their party and their constituency - all  to be overseen by  their leader Aryah Deri, a convicted fraudster.  He previously spent years in prison for bribery and corruption while serving as the Minister of the Interior.  But he made a comeback years later, was re-elected as leader of the Shas party and now has 10 seats or more.

The United Torah Judaism party will make similar demands to those of Shas - though for their constituency.  They  will seek greater power for the rabbinate and will launch ongoing attacks on gender equality as they have in the past.  They strongly oppose LGBTQ rights, gender equality, science (generally) and secular law.  Having sat in the opposition for the past year and half, they are hungry to make up for the lost time and will present Netanyahu with quite a large list of demands.

The largest coalition partner for Netanyahu, the RZ party, has never played  such an active role in the government.  The RZ party has proposed  removing the  offences of corruption and public breach of trust from the criminal code, which would  effectively end Netanyahu's trial.  They seek to appoint a majority  of right wing judges to the courts, to "untie the hands" of soldiers and  police in dealing with Palestinian  and Arab violence and they aim to expend the settlements, provide greater protection for settlers in Judea and Samaria (the "west bank") and take a much harder line towards the Palestinians and Palestinian terrorism and attacks.  Some of the demands of the RZ may conflict with the two ultra-religious parties  since the RZ members do believe in studying secular subjects, they work, serve in the army and pay taxes (unlike many of the ultra-Orthodox).  They have called for the institution of  capital punishment for terrorists, the expulsion of "non-loyal" Palestinians from the country and a range of other far-right policies.

Netanyahu is certainly aware that Israel would face a major international backlash if it were to  implement some  of these policies.  At the same time, he has promised to support these parties as part of his election campaign.  In his speech tonight, he called for the restoration of  "Israeli pride" and claimed that Israel needs to show the world that it is strong and not weak.  Perhaps his partners will insist, for example, on a military attack on the Iranian nuclear program.

If Netanyahu were to implement much or all of this agenda, as demanded by his three coalition partners, the country would start to look like Turkey or even Iran.  Netanyahu is not necessarily interested in going that far and some of his fellow Likud members are also likely to resist some of this agenda.  But it is a rather motley group.  Israelis in the centre  and on the left are not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking about what lies ahead.

If the results hold up and Netanyahu can enter coalition agreements with these three partners, he is likely to have a reasonably stable government for the next 3-4 years, even if it is one that generates lots of negative publicity and makes some very unpopular decisions.  I hope that saner heads will prevail and  that the government will act in a reasonably measured fashion.  if it does not, we may see a tech "brain drain" and enormous damage to the Israeli economy and world image.  

Some are still hoping that, somehow, overnight, the numbers will magically change.  As the  evening progresses, this seems to be less and less likely.  It is far more likely that in the coming weeks, we will see the reinstallation of Prime Minister Netanyahu - a reincarnation that seems likely to  seek vindication, vengance and most importantly, historical rehabilitation.  

I wish Medinat Yisrael (the State of Israel) and Am Yisrael (the people of Israel) the best of luck.

Less Than Two Weeks Until Israeli Elections...

Itamar Ben-Gvir (Rueters)

We are officially into the period that is called "after the Holidays" in Israel, where everyone is supposed to attend to the list of things that they have been putting off.  The holiday period began with Rosh Hashanah on September 26, 2022 and has now ended with Simchat Torah on October 17, 2022, the last day of "Yom Tov" until Passover.  It would be nice to spread the holidays out a bit more.  Although Chanukah is in December, it is a "minor" holiday - so Israelis do not generally get any paid days off at that time.  We would do well to pick up the Canadian example - and turn a bunch of weekends into long weekends for no particularly discernible reason - other than to give people a bit of a break.

For many Israelis, not much work took place during this holiday period.  Universities hadn't yet reopened, many people took extended vacations out of the country and people were generally in holiday mode.  This whole time period occurred during an election campaign, which also seemed to be operating at a much slower pace.

But now, it is back to work, back to school, back to the grind and back to the election campaign. Less than two weeks to go until the election (which is actually a national holiday in Israel) and no defined public holidays for some time, other than election day itself.

So in preparation for the big day, I have put together a bit of a rundown on the competing parties with some running commentary.  If you are not particularly interested in the upcoming Israeli elections - I will be writing another blog shortly on some other topics - so I guess you can skip this one - though I'll try to make it as digestible as I can.

If you have been reading my blogs over the years, you will recall that I have written several of these before.  Some of the content will remain fairly similar since many of the parties are still the same.  But some parties have changed and there have been some other shake ups.  In a way, I think there is less to cover this time around since there are fewer parties.  There are 11 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset and two more that have a chance but are likely to miss the cut off.  While this is still quite a bit in comparison to the number of parties in Canada, the U.S. or many other places, it is somewhat more manageable than it has been in recent years.

So here goes....

A Look at the List of Parties:

1.    The Likud

Led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi"), the Likud is poised to garner the most seats of any party running, which is also the situation in the current Knesset.  Current polls have put the  Likud party at anywhere between 30 and 35 seats.  Interestingly, two polls that were released yesterday were the ones that had Likud at 30 and 31 seats, the lowest showing for Likud in several months.

Likud is a right of centre party emphasizing somewhat free market economics, a hard line position towards the Palestinians and a willingness to compromise on just about anything in the social-economic sphere with the ultra-orthodox parties in order to attain power.  

Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving Prime Minister, having served as Prime Minister for more than 15 years in total.  He knows his way around an election campaign. At the same time, he is in the midst of a criminal trial on three sets of charges including bribery, deception and breach of public trust.  It is hard to read how the trial is going since much of it is not open to the public and it is such a long trial.  But there is no indication that it is going to end any time soon although some plea bargain negotiations have taken place.

In order to form a government, the Likud will need to combine their 30-35 seats with a sufficient additional number to reach 61 (the required majority in the 120 seat Knesset) by entering coalition agreements with other parties.  According to recent polls, Bibi and his potential partners are likely to wind up with a total of between 58 and 62 seats so it is really quite a toss-up.

Netanyahu has been running an energetic and interesting campaign.  He has released a biography - just three weeks before the election - in English and Hebrew.  He has held write-in contests and visited in the Sukkahs of winning Israeli families across the country.  He has run an extremely active twitter and social media campaign and has avoided being interviewed.

Despite his ongoing legal troubles, Bibi has managed to reign in his Likud party and keep a lid on any public dissent.  It is quite comparable to what Trump has been able to do in the U.S. with the Republican party, though Trump has probably faced more internal dissent than Bibi.  

The focus of Bibi's campaign has been to portray Prime Minister Yair Lapid as "weak" and a "sell-out."  For Bibi and the Likud, the campaign has not been particularly ideological.  He has attacked Lapid and the left wing parties, Meretz and Labour, arguing that they will sell out Israel to the Arabs and the Arab parties.  He has attacked Ayelet Shaked with the same line of attack.  But he has also had to fend off the extremists to his right by moving a bit to the centre on some social issues.  

I would say that his messages have lacked cohesion but there is a common theme.  It is mainly about getting Bibi back into power and finding a way to resolve his legal issues.  It is the cult of personality that "only Bibi" can run the country.  

As of now, it seems that the odds are pretty close to 50-50 that he will be able to form a government.  One option is that Likud and its coalition partners - the two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party - will get more than 61.  If that is the case, Israel will have the furthest right government that it has ever had in power.  It will be a government in which Bibi will be at the left (or even far left) of the governing coalition.

A second option is that the Likud and its bloc will fall just short - at 58-60.  This might produce a stalemate and another election.  Alternatively - one of the parties in the opposition might agree to make a deal and join the government. As of now, it is hard to imagine which party would do that.  I don't believe that it would be Yesh Atid or Meretz but it is possible that some of the members of Gantz's party, the "national unity" party could be pursuaded with the right offer.  They will have a very hard time joining a government with the RZ party but stranger things have happened in Israeli political history.  Likud will also lobby the Labour party and the Ra'am party with various offers.  

My conclusion is that the Likud has the best chance of forming a government unless the poll numbers change drastically.  If Likud cannot form a government, there is a reasonable chance that there will be another election.  The current governing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, seems unlikely to muster sufficient support but that is the third most likely outcome.

2. Yesh Atid

Led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid is the second largest party according to every poll that has been issued.  The party is a centrist party, willing to enter into coalition agreements with parties across the political spectrum. Yesh Atid is very strong on anti-corruption measures and is one of the few parties that is unwilling, under any circumstances, to provide a "get out of jail free card" to Bibi.  

According to recent polls, Yesh Atid is running at between 23 and 26 seats.  The two most recent polls put them at 25.

Lapid has so far run a fairly low key campaign.  He has focused on performing his duties as Prime Minister.  Over the past few weeks, that has included negotiating a territorial waters deal with Lebanon to address the issue of natual gas reservoirs in disputed waters.  He has also been pushing for a more pro-Ukranian Israeli policy and more of a break from Israeli relations with Russia.  This would contrast with Bibi who prides himself on his strong relationship with Putin and has been eerily silent on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yesh Atid will probably ramp up its campaign over these crucial weeks but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful.  Lapid has been careful not to attack the parties on his left too much because some of them are perilously close to not passing the electoral threshhold.  At the same time, he would like to have sufficient army and military credibility to retain support of the centre-right.  I would imagine that he will ramp up the attacks on Bibi and corruption over the next two weeks, while also emphasizing the extreme nature of the government that Bibi would form if he wins the election.

As of now, it seems unlikely that Yesh Atid can win this election.  I think they would need to get to 30 or 31 seats, which they don't seem to have.  Even then, they would also need their coalition partners to have enough to reach 61.  I guess we will have to see what Lapid can do over the next two weeks of campaigning and whether he can close the gap.  If he can't, his next best option is a stalement - which is almost as good as a win.  Lapid would continue to be the caretaker Prime Minister, another election would be called three or four months down the road and the pressure would probably increase on Bibi to step down.  At some point, if Bibi doesn't win, the dissent in his party is likely to start to grow.  

So overall, a win for Lapid and his coaltion does not look likely  - I think less than 20%.  But the chance of a stalemate is close to 40% and that is probably close enough to a win for Lapid.  That is, as long as none of his coalition partners bolt and join Bibi.

3. National Unity

This is Benjamin Gantz's party that was formerly "Blue and White" and includes Gideon Sa'ar.  The party is chock full of military - including the leader himself.  Politically they are centre-right, a bit to the right of Yesh Atid on most issues.  In fact, a number of the National Unity members are former Likud members who might even like to run for Likud if it was led by a different leader.  

Gantz has in the past buckled and formed a rotation government deal with Bibi, though as we know, Bibi took his turn and then collapsed the government before Gantz could become Prime Minister by refusing to pass a budget.  This National Unity party is running at a solid 11-12 seats.

They have been running as the party that could be the alternative to Netanyahu since they maintain that they would be more attractive to the ultra-orthodox than Lapid.  With all due respect to Gantz, I don't see it.  He is not a charismatic leader and from where I sit, seems to have little chance of forming the government.

His party stole Bibi's slogan outright and ran on the slogan "Only Gantz can do it" - which was Bibi's slogan the past few elections.  His party has also plastered posters everywhere saying "After him" or "Follow him" I suppose.  But since very few people see him as a strong leader, these posters seem to be somewhat comical.  

I think there is a chance that this party could end up with 9 or 10 seats.  However, in order to form a government, Lapid needs Gantz's party to have a good showing and wind up in the 11-12 range - while getting 30-32 himself.  It's tough call since these two parties are fighting over some of the same voters.

4. Religious Zionists

The biggest growth for any party is in the support for the Religious Zionist party, which is a coalition of three different far right parties.  The party is led by Betzalel Smotrich, an extreme nationalist.  He advocates running the State of Israel based on "Torah law."  He at one point declared himself to be a "proud homophobe" and generates all kinds of controveries just about every time he speaks.  Just this week, he proposed legislation that would remove the offences of breach of trust and deception from the Israeli criminal code, which would all but ensure that Bibi's trial would end.   

The party also features Itamar Ben Gvir, another gun-toting extremist, who has a history of extremism and involvement with the Kahanist movement.  Ben Gvir has, in the past, advocated expelling "disloyal" Arabs from Israel.

This fine collection of folks is currently polling at numbers between 12 and 15 seats.  If they wind up with those numbers, they will be indespensible to any coalition that Bibi might put together and will demand cabinet seats.  

This would certainly create significant international pressure.  A government with such far-right extremists would greatly harm Israel's image, not to mention the domestic damage that it would engender.

Some of this support has come from people who previously supported Bennett's party, the "Jewish Home," which is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  The RZ party also received boosts in its support as a result of riots in Lod, Acre and other parts of Israel where Israeli Arabs took part in violent acts against Jewish civilians in Israeli cities. Apparently, there are also many young Israelis poised to vote for this party.

I think we should all be concerned.  I would imagine that many people will refuse to tell polsters that they are voting for the RZ party.  I think they could wind up with 15-17 seats.  If they take those seats from Likud votes, that still might not change the overall bloc numbers.  But a government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in its cabinet is frightening indeed.

The Israeli TV show "Eretz Nehederet" ("Its a wonderful country") satirized the prospect of a Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government by using a clip called "Springtime for Hitler" from the show The Producers.  Here is the clip in case you are interested - though I don't think there are subtitles.  Brilliant but frightening satire in my view....

5. Shas and 6. Torah Judaism

Shas and Torah Judaism are two ultra-orthodox parties.  

Shas is led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and appeals to Jews of "Mizrahi" (eastern) origin - i.e. sephardic Jews.  For some reason, Shas also gets a lot of support from non-ultra-orthodox Israelis.  They claim that they are a socially activist party - out to help the poor get better access to medical care, religious education, food etc.,  Shas is polling at 7-8 seats which it seems to get consistently no matter what else is happening.  They have pledged to stick with Bibi, who will be happy to pay just about any price that they demand for their support.

Torah Judaism is an ultra-religious party mainly supported by Jews of western origin ("Ashkenazim").  They are more focused on getting money for Yeshivas, implementing stricter religious laws, defending the rabbinate and avoiding military service.  Their leaders have also faced criminal charges on several occasions and they are as likely as anyone else to make outrageous comments about gays, women, reform Jews and anyone else who is not ultra-orthodox.  The are polling at 6-7 seats and are also committed to joining Bibi for the right price.  However, some Torah Judaism members have speculated, out loud, that they might consider joining another government if the only alternative was being part of the opposition.  So there may be a narrow window here.  If Bibi can't form a government, another group might be able to buy the support of Torah Judaism.  This is where Gantz comes in.  He seems to think he can convince both Shas and Torah Judaism to separate from Bibi and join his party as part of a coaltion.

However, using Gantz's math, lets say he gets 13 seats.  Add the 14-15 from Shas and Torah Judaism - and that gets us to 27-28.  He would need to get Lapid on side - with 25-30 and then some of the other left parties - which are somewhat anti-ultra Orthodox.  Again, I don't see this happening but I suppose anything is possible.

7. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home)

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, this party has historically been supported by Russian speaking Israelis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected support for the party since Lieberman, in the past, has been a strong Putin supporter.  He would like to keep Israel close to neutral in the war but this has started to create a backlash, especially among Russian speakers with Ukrainian origins.  Lieberman is seen has having done a fairly good job as finance minister in the current government and is likely to support Lapid again.  The party tends to be to the right on national security issues but avowedly secular on state-religion issues.  In Israeli political terms, that means that they see eye to eye with the anti-Haredi left on some issue but are closely aligned with Likud views (or even more right wing views) on some other issues - including issues involving the Palestinians.  They are polling at 5-7 seats.

8. Meretz and 9. Labor

These two parties are the stalwarts of the Israeli left.  Labor has traditionally been aligned with the Histadrut the largest workers' union in Israel. It is currently led by Merav Michaeli who has also brought a strong general equality focus to the party. The party is polling in the range of 4 to 6 seats.  It is most likely to join a government with Lapid and highly unlikely to consider joining Bibi.  

Meretz has traditionally been the most left wing Israeli party with a focus on secularism and equality and has been a strong advocate for a resolution with the Palestinians as well as for Arab-Jewish equality within the state.  The most recent leader of Meretz, Nitzan Horowitz, has served in the cabinet of the current government.  He stepped down after the election was called and was replaced by Zehava Gal-On who has pledged to bring the party "back to its roots."  Meretz is likely to support a Yesh Atid government and highly unlikely to join Netanyah or any government with the ultra-religious.  They are polling at 4 to 6 seats.

10. Hadash-Ta'al and 12. Bal'ad

For the past few elections, three Arab Israeli parties have run under one umbrella as the "United Arab List" or the "United Joint List."  They have been able to muster as many as 12 to 15 seats.  This year, they had a falling out and one party, the most extremist, "Bal'ad" left the group. Balad is now running at less than 2% and will most likely not make the cut off.  Hadash Ta'al is polling at 4 seats, which seems suprisingly low but is probably due to significant Arab Israeli apathy for the coming elections.  Hadash Ta'al has never taken an active role in an Israeli government though they have supported legislation and votes "from the outside."  While Balad was unwilling to be part of any Israeli government in any circumstances, Hadash Ta'al might look to the recent Ra'am example and try to negotiate itself into the government.  The right wing Jewish parties have argued that this would be illegitimate since Hadash Ta'al are generally anti-Zionist parties.  Hadash Ta'al would have to be prepared to accept Israel as a Jewish state to enter the government.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to take this step.  At a minimum these parties could be the key to preventing Bibi from forming a government.

13. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, Ra'am played an active role in the most recent Israeli government, the first time ever that an Arab Israeli party formed an active part of a governing coalition.  Although there were hiccups, Ra'am would almost certainly join Lapid again if that could lead to a government being formed.  Ra'am is currently polling at about 4 seats.  On social and economic issues, they are further to the right than Hadash Ta'al since Ra'am party members are religious Muslims.  Hadash Ta'al tend to be more secular socialists.  In the past, Bibi had tried to negotiate with Ra'am.  At this point, however, the RZ party is likely to be a key component of any government that Bibi might form.  And they have stated repeatedly and emphatically that they will not join a government with Ra'am or any other Arab Israeli parties.  So Ra'am's only option will be to join a Lapid government (or a Gantz government if can come up with a credible option).

14. Habayit Hayehudi

This is former Prime Minster Bennett's party.  He has left politics.  The party is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  This was once a religious Zionist party, but Shaked is avowedly secular.  She is on the right of political spectrum but she took an active role in the most recent government as a cabinet minister.  She has now said that all of that was a mistake and that she shouldn't have joined.  One of her campaign slogans stated that "everything is forgiven on Yom Kippur" and she has publicly apologized for "sinning against her voters."  They don't seem to be listening or granting the repentance that she is seeking.  She is well under the requisite threshhold according to every poll that has been released.  She is willing to join a Bibi-led government if she gets past the threshold.  Her willingness to do this - leaves potential voters wondering why they should vote for her instead of just voting for Bibi.

Conclusion

Given all of this math, there are aren't too many realistic possibilities.  But here they are, handicapped by an amateur (yours truly)...just for you lucky readers.

1. Bibi forms a government with 61+ including the two Haredi parties and the RZ party.  38%

2. Stalemate - and a new election is called - 32%

3. Lapid forms a government with or without the support of Hadash/Ta'al - 20%

4. Gantz forms a government, with one or both of the Haredi parties - 5%

5. Some other government or option that I haven't thought of....5%.

Of course it is impossible to measure how well I do - since if any one of these occur - we will never really know how likely that event was - only that it actually occurred.   

I might adjust my odds as the election gets closer based on news, events and newer polls.  But for now. buckle up.  It should be a bumpy ride and I think there is a good chance that we will not really know where things are headed until at least a few weeks after the election, which is taking place on November 1, 2022.

I hope that you have found this useful.  I will probably send out another blog shortly addressing some issues with much less politics.  Wishing everyone a terrific 5783 and all the best in this "after the holidays" period.

October 2022 - Day Before Yom Kippur

It is the day before Yom Kippur - the holiest day of the Jewish Calendar.  Okay there is an argument about that - it may well be that Shabbat - every Saturday - is actually considered the holiest day - but let's put that aside for a bit.  If you have never been to Israel on Yom  Kippur - it is really an amazing experience.  All traffic ceases to a halt - other than an handful of emergency and security vehicles.  Even secular Israelis refrain from using their cars.  There is no "law" that bans cars - but I guess the collective society has decided that everyone is willing to agree to make the day special.

Non observant Israelis have turned Yom Kippur into a national biking holiday.  People who are not going to synagogue - get on their bikes - by themselves or with friends and family.  Some take cross country routes - using highways that are normally filled with cars but are now filled only with bicycles.  Some use the opportunity to teach their children to ride bikes - since there are so many "safe" places to do that on this day.  Others use skateboards, roller blades or even electric bikes - and some just walk or jog.

So far, we have stayed on the sidelines from this alternate Yom Kippur celebration - since we tend to observe the day in more traditional fashion.  It would actually be quite amazing to be able to do both - have one day a year with no cars just for biking and walking - without that day falling on Yom  Kippur.  But I guess life is always filled with choices.

Instead, as you might  know, we join our friends and Synagogue community in running Yom Kippur prayer services - tefillot.  For the past 10-15 years, we have been running a satellite service  in Ra'anana - since our main synagogue is in K'far Saba - about 7 km away.   We either hold it in an available synagogue in Ra'anana (some synagogues rent out gyms or halls for Yom Kippur since there are too many people for their synagogue) or we use someone's house or backyard.  We have hosted once but fortunately we have found another venue at a lucky friend's house.  I have been conducting the Neilah service for somewhere in the range of 10 years.  That is the last service of Yom Kippur which runs for about the last hour and half of the fast (no food no water for 26 hours) - and everyone  is standing for most of it - while I get to sing prayers  for most of that time....hopefully with everyone  joining in.

About three or four years ago, we added the Kol Nidrei service - before that - everyone in our group was attending at other synagogues or walking to our shul in K'far Saba.  I agreed to take that on - so that is another 2 hours or so of singing at the start of the fast.  On top of that, we have a full service in the morning - though we abbreviate it a bit.  Lots  of work to do there to  share the Torah reading etc.,  All in all, it is quite a bit of preparation, quite an investment  of  time - but quite rewarding.  Hopefully it is spiritually rewarding for those attending.  

So really - I should probably be preparing  some more now - "cramming" rather  than taking the time to write  this blog.  Or cooking for the pre-fast meal....Or cooking for the break-fast meal....or  resting.  Well.  Much of the cooking is done.  And I think I'm fairly ready since I have done this  more than a few times.  But it always helps to review.

As I am writing - tens of thousands of people are at the Kotel in Jerusalem, attending at the annual last minute selichot ("forgiveness") prayers.  People come from all over the country to sing  and pray late into the night.  Since driving  is permitted  - people are able to attend selichot from anywhere in the country whereas during Yom Kippur itself, people can only get to the Kotel if they can walk there.  Or bike, I suppose....

There are some  people who manage the blend the  two.  Perhaps they bike all day on Yom Kippur and then find  some Neilah service to attend where  they can hear the final shofar blown marking the end of Yom  Kippur.  Even at our small service, we probably wind up with double the normal number right near the end.   We were once at a synagogue in Mazkeret  Batya (a small town near Rehovot) for the Neilah service.  As the end  of Yom Kippur drew near, the synagogue filled up so completely it was standing  room only.  In fact, people were looking in to the synagogue from windows surrounding the building and at the door entrance.  It was like everyone  in the town showed up - secular and religious  for the last 15-20 minutes of Yom Kippur.  All waiting for the sound  of final shofar note.

Election Update

As you might also know, Israel's next election is only one month away.  It will be held on November 2, 2022.  This blog would be too long if I reviewed all of the political parties and their chances so I will do that in another blog - closer to the  actual election.  But I do have a few short comments.

First of all, there is a reasonable chance that this 2022 election will end  up in a stalemate.  Former  Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party are polling at anywhere from 30-35 seats.  No Israeli party ever manages to get a majority government by itself - with 61 seats required to form a government in the 120 seat Knesset.  Netanyahu is counting on the support of two ultra-religious parties - Shas (Ultra-religious Sephardic party) and Yehadut HaTorah (Torah Judaism) - which are likely to get about 14 seats combined.  He is also counting  on support from an ultra-right party - the Religious Zionist  party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar  Ben Gvir.  These are some pretty scary folks - who would like to turn Israel into a state run according to Jewish religious law - and  have little appreciation for democracy.   But for some reason, they are polling at somewhere in the range of 10-13 seats, which is shockingly high.  So  if you add all of that up - there is a scenario where these four parties  could combine and get past  61 and form a government.   It would be Israel's most right wing government ever, heavily weighted with religious extremists.   It would also be a government that  would be likely to help Netanyahu get out  of his legal troubles even though he is in the middle of a criminal trial.

The Israeli Knesset

The possibilities for the current  Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, look somewhat more  daunting.  His party has been polling at somewhere between 22 and 26  seats.  He needs a whole constellation of parties to join him, from across the political spectrum, to get to 61.  Some of those parties are flirting with crossing the election threshold - set at 4% of the total votes.  Assuming  that they all pass through - Lapid could  count  on support from Labour (left wing  workers' party,  historically), Meretz  (left wing  secularists), Yisraeli Beytenu (Right wing  nationalist/Russian immigrants party) that might all add up to Between 38 and 42.  There is another centrist  party running, led by Benny Gantz - who swears up and down that he won't  join Netanyahu (though  he did once  before).  They are polling at 10 to 12 seats, though they want to try and get Gantz into  the Prime Minister's seat.  If they join  Lapid, that could get them to between 48 and 54.  If they  cut a deal with the Ra'am (Arab/Muslim fundamentalist party) again, they could get up to between 52 and 58.  Still three short.  

So unless the numbers change dramatically between now and November 2, 2022, Israel is likely to wind up with either a stalemate and another election or a right wing government, led by Bibi.   That being said - a month is a long time.  Numbers could change quite a bit.  Buckle up.  It should be interesting.

Sports News

The Israel under 21 soccer team has qualified for the European Championships - which is very exciting for Israelis since soccer is the most popular sport  here.  Unfortunately, the senior  team  didn't  qualify for the World Cup, which starts in November in Qatar.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to qualify.   Instead of having  to play teams from its region, the Middle  East, Israel is stuck in the European division, which makes it much harder to qualify.  This is due to Israel's lack of peaceful relations with many of the surrounding  countries - or to put it another way - the refusal of those countries to recognize Israel's right to exist.   Maybe  the day is getting  closer when Israel will have to play Egypt, Jordan,  Saudi Arabia, Iran  and  Iraq to qualify.  But for now, we still have to get past France, Portugal, Germany and  others, which is much more  difficult.  

Meanwhile, with my relative lack of interest in watching soccer, I have preferred to jump on the bandwagon and  watch our home  town Blue Jays - having one of their best seasons ever.  Playoffs start this week - which means watching games that start at 2 a.m. here in Israel.  I'm hoping to be back in Toronto for some really meaningful Blue  Jay playoff games.

I'm also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills - the closest thing Toronto has to an NFL home town team.  I have been to many games in Buffalo.  While they have had some fantastic seasons, inlcuding four losing  Super Bowl appearances in a row - the 2022-23 edition of the Bills may be their best team ever.  That also means watching at some crazy hours when  I'm in Israel - though if they play a 1 p.m. game - that is a very manageable  8 p.m. start here  in Israel.

I am going to wrap this up for now and  wish everyone who is observing a Gmar Hatima Tova - may you have a meaningful fast - and be inscribed in the good books of life  and everything positive for the coming New Year.  I hope to write  some  more soon - likely with a bit more political analysis.

September 2022: Political Comments, Wineries, Sports, Festivals and General Notes

I am a bit behind getting to my blog but I thought I would throw this one together to comment on a few different  issues.  Maybe I will put together one more just before Rosh Hashanah, which is quickly approaching.

Israeli Politics

Firstly, what  could one of my blogs be without at least some comments on Israeli politics?  As you might know, we have yet another election scheduled - for November 1, 2022.  Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops  trying to get himself back into power.  I would say it is going to be very close. According to a few different recent Israeli polls, here is an approximate estimate of where things stand in terms of projected seats by party (poll predictions):

Likud: (Party of Former Prime Minister Netanyahu):           31-33 seats

Yesh Atid (Party of current Interim Prime Minister Lapid):  22-24

National Unity (Party led by Benny Gantz):                         12-13

Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi (eastern) Party:                        8-10

Labor (Left wing "workers" party, led by Merav Micaeli):     5

United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkanazi party):      7

Yisrael Beytenu (Led by Lieberman):                                        5-6

Religious Zionist Party (Ultra Nationlist - Smotrich/Ben Gvir)  10-13

Meretz (Far left, secularist party):                                            5

Joint List (Arab parties, largely anti-Zionist):                          5-6

Ra'am (Arab party, led by Monsour Abbas):                            4

So if we add all that up - by looking at who could  go with who, we get something like this:  

Netanyahu (Likud), together with the two ultra-Orthodox parties and the RZP is running at 56 to 63.  Obviously, if these parties could put together 63 seats, they would form a far-right wing, narrow government though it would probably be relatively stable for the next 2-3 years.  This would be a government of vengence in my view, which would immediately try to change the law in several areas, especially in the area of religious-secular issues in Israel, budgeting (especially for Orthodox and  Ultra-Orthodox groups) and extensive increased settlement building.  This type of government would try to "roll back" any changes that had been made over the past two years by the current government and would do everything it could to assist Netanyahu in getting out of his legal  problems.

If they fall short of 61, they will try to convince Ganz and his "National Unity" Party to join the government.  Given that Gantz's party could have 10-12 seats, it is definitely a possibility that this could happen though it is unclear who would go first as Prime Minister and what Netanyahu would have to promise Gantz to get him to join the government.  Nevertheless, I don't rule this out especially since Gantz has shown  in the past that he  is prepared to make deals with Netanyahu.  One  would assume that the inclusion of Gantz would moderate the government somewhat but it would still be a very right-leaning government.

On the other side of the ledger, Lapid's "bloc" is running at between 49 and 53, without Ra'am.  If we add back in Ra'am - that would get them to between 53 and 57, still not enough to form a government.  This group would need to make a deal with one or both of the Ultra-Orthodox parties, which seems quite unlikely.  It doesn't look like there are any other potential participants.

Given these numbers, it is possible that there will be another stalemate and that this might finally force Netanyahu to consider resigning from the leadership of the Likud party.  But I wouldn't bet on this.  Unless something dramatically changes, it looks like Israel is heading for some type of right wing government, either with the participation of Gantz's party  or without.  Lapid and his potential coalition partners would all need a big change in the  polling  numbers to be in a position to form a government.  As of right now, that seems unlikely.

I will watch the polls and see if anything interesting develops but with less than two months to go - this is where things seem to be headed.

Israeli TV and Sports

As you may know, the fourth season of Fauda is out and has been airing on Israeli TV, one episode at a time.  The grand finale will be next Wednesday, September 14, 2022.  After that, I understand it will be released worldwide on Netflix.  So if you are a Fauda fan, this season will surely keep you riveted to the screen.  "Fauda" means chaos in Arabic.  This show is definitely chaotic.  Violent, pressure-packed, intense and dramatic, it makes for some very compelling TV.  I would say that the the fourth season has been  one of the best though we are still waiting for the  culminating  episode.

The big news in Sports here in Israel is that the Maccabi Haifa soccer team made it into the European "Champions League."  That is a very big deal for European  and Israeli football (soccer) fans.   Next week, Paris St Germaine will be playing a home game in Haifa - which means that soccer superstar Lionel Messi, among others, will be arriving in Israel for a game.  This is really a huge sports event here and tickets are very hard to come by.  I have no plans to go in person but I will probably jump on the bandwagon and watch it on TV.  Expectations are not very high for Maccabi Haifa against such strong international competition.  But just being there is a big accomplishment for the Haifa squad.

As a Torontonion, on the other hand, I am very excited about the Toronto  Blue Jays this year, who have an excellent (though often inconsistent) baseball team.  When in Israel, this means watching games from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. (or sometimes longer).  About 20 games left to go in the regular season and the Blue Jays are still in a playoff spot, so I may be keeping strange hours in the coming weeks.  Also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills, who play their season  opener tonight and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who begin the season in about a month.  All of this means keeping a semblance of Toronto hours, while here in Israel - not an easy feat.

A quick musical mention - a blast from the past - the "Counting Crows" are playing  in Ra'anana at the Ra'anana ampitheatre next week.  Not sure I will make it to that but it sounds like it could be fun.  I might go see Tamir Grinburg instead,  winner of last year's "Rising Star" competition on Israeli reality TV.

On my recent  trip back to Israel, on Air Canada, I watched a few Israeli movies on the plane.  Nothing too memorable, but it is worth mentioning that if you look for  these movies in the entertainment system, they are available.

Worthwhile Sight  Seeing Mentions

We  took a few trips  recently to places that we had been to in the past but seemed worth visiting again.  

Photo #3

In late July, we  arranged a tour of the Israeli Supreme Court.  This is a fascinating tour, filled with all kinds of interesting information on the details of the building itself, the history and  role  of the Israeli Supreme Court, and a chance to watch some live proceedings.  It can be arranged in English or  many other  languages - and it is free.  Obviously this is a sight of very high interest for lawyers from around the world, but I think many other people  would also enjoy visiting.

Last week, we  went for a tour of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament  building.  This is also quite an interesting  tour, which takes about 1.5 hours.  It is free and  can be arranged in English, Hebrew or several other languages.  Like the tour of the Supreme  Court it includes quite a bit of information on the history of the Knesset, the building itself, the Israeli political system and other interesting tidbits.  We had a terrific guide and really enjoyed the tour.

I have included pictures  of the Chagall Art that adorns the Main Knesset entrance and reception hall area.  We spent a significant of time looking at and discussing  these photos.

While in the Knesset, we happen to see a number of current Knesset members wandering around.  One of them was Ayelet Shaked.  Several visitors were stopping her to ask for a picture.  We  didn't.  According to current  polls, Shaked and her  party are unlikely to make it to the Knesset this  time around but she  is still actively campaigning.

Photo #1 (on the  Left)

Photo #2 (Middle)

  

Summer in Israel also features several interesting events and  festivals.  On the liquid refreshment side of things, there are three that I would like to mention.

Each year, the Israeli Museum in Jerusalem holds an annual Wine festival.   It is an outdoor festival at the Israeli Museum grounds, with beautiful views of Jerusalem.  It is usually held in July or August, generally after Tisha B'Av.   There are about 30-40 wineries in attendance.  Guests pay a set admission (120 Shequels this year - or about $40  USD) and receive a wine  glass that they can take  home at the end of the evening.   Guests can then wander around and taste wines from any of  the  different  wineries.   No additional  charges for the wine, though some of the wineries run out of their better wines  early in the evening.  There are also food kiosks selling a wide range  of items - cheese plates, pizza, baked potatoes, sushi.  The festival also includes live music and there was a really fun band playing a wide range of music  - from classic 70s rock to 80s and 90s pop music - to current Israeli music.  On the day  we attended, the band even  played a medley of Jewish Hora music.  Lots of fun.  Our whole family attended and everyone  had a really fun time.  (As crazy as it sounds, everyone is now old enough to drink alcohol legally....)

Next week, there is a Coffee festival in Tel-Aviv, which promises to showcase  more than 50 different  coffee  vendors.  Not sure how much coffee I can drink in one evening - and how long I might have to stay up afterwards until all of that caffeine wears off.  But I suppose, getting back to my sports comments, if there is a baseball or football game to be watched after the event, it may not be so bad.

There is also a beer festival coming up with more than 50 breweries.  I'm not that much of a beer connaisseur but it might still be a fun event.

Israeli Wineries

Speaking of wine, we managed to visit a few wineries over the past few months.

One was "Harei Galil" - the Galil  Mountain Winery.  This winery is in northern Israel, very close  to the Syrian  border.  The winery sits atop a mountain and the visitor's centre provides a beautiful view.  The visitor centre staff were  very friendly.  We arranged a tasting  of six different wines, accompanied by a plate of cheeses, grapes, apricots, dates, olives, breads and other  goodies, all strictly Kosher and  all quite tasty.   The wine itself was nice though not compelling enough for us to load up  with purchases.  Galil is one of Israel's largest wineries, producing more than 1.2 million bottles  a year.  They have some  very nice  high end wines as well as some drinkable mid-range offerings.  It is a beautiful visitor's centre and well worth a stop

Nearby, we also stopped  at one of my favourites, the Dalton  Winery, which produces some delicious wine.  We arrived a bit late so we had a choice of standing  at the bar and tasting whatever they poured us for free - or sitting  down  and ordering a set tasting.  Since  we were running a bit late, we opted  for the bar tasting.  The staff were very friendly and  helpful and poured us a variety of  tastings.  Here we couldn't resist buying  a few bottles though the prices were not really any better than the prices in Israeli wine shops.

We also visited the Tulip Winery which is another  one  of our favourites.  The Tulip Winery invests in and supports a community of adults with special needs, many of whom also work at the winery.  For that reason alone, it is one of  my favourites to visit and support.  We  opted for a 6-7 wine tasting package which also came with a nice selection of fruit, cheeses, breads and other goodies.  Like at the other wineries, the staff were very helpful and friendly.  We sat outdoors on high bar chairs.  It was quite warm but they had fans set up so it was comfortable.  

I will also mention that we visited the Ella Valley  Winery which is much  closer to the  Jerusalem area - located in the Judean Hills.  The tasting here was somewhat  less organized.  We  were served some olives with our wine.  Most of the wines we tasted were not particularly good.  Our guide  was friendly and fun - but not very experienced or  knowledgeable.  We  weren't able to taste the higher  end wines.  Not sure  we will be running  back to this winery for a visit though I have had some Ella  wines that I have quite enjoyed  over the years.

Maybe I am saving the last for the best.  Not far from Ella is the Tzora Winery.  Tzora is more of a boutique winery, which primarily produces  blended wines.  But their wines are all outstanding.  The visitors' centre is beautiful.  We have been there a few times.  On  our most recent vist, we were able to taste 5 or 6 wines and were provided with a wonderful cheese, bread and olive oil platter.  Everyone we were with enjoyed all of the wines.  Of  all the Israeli wineries we have visited, from a taste and experience  point of view, this is definitely one  of the best.

There are somewhere around  300 wineries now in Israel, so this is only a very  small sampling.  We  have probably been to close  to 50 of them but  still a long  way to go.  For any guests who are planning to visit -  we are happy to try and get  to as many  of the  remaining 250 as possible,  although we have visited many of the really good ones so we may have to go back for seconds  to some of those places.

Random Closing Thoughts

With the approach of another Jewish  New Year, Rosh Hashanah,  in just a few weeks, I think I would say  by way of sizing things up that the "State of the Nation is Strong."  Okay, I know I have  stolen that phrase, but I think it is true.   Israel has all kinds  of challenges, including Religious-Secular tensions, serious external threats as well  as sporadic terrorist attacks, ever  increasing cost of living and a variety of other types of tension.  But Israeli recently ranked #9 on a World  Happiness Index, which is quite an accomplishment.  That put Israel higher than Canada or the United States (#16  and  18 respectively).

Sometimes, it can feel like living in a powder keg, not knowing  if hostilities will break out any moment with Gaza, with the Palestinians,  with Hezbollah or with some other party.   And things will  not  really be truly peaceful  here unless and until we  can reach some type of resolution with the Palestinians.  But  Israel has come quite far since its founding more than 74 years ago and certainly seems like  a more stable, prosperous, vibrant - and yes even peaceful place than it  was  in the first  40-50 years of its existence.  Hopefully  we  will soon  find a way to address some of these outstanding  issues and ensure long term peace and stability.

If I  don't  get a chance to write before the holidays, I wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year - Shana Tova u'Metukah.

President Biden's Israel Visit, Beauty Queen of Jerusalem, Fiddler on the Roof in Hebrew and other comments

It has been quite a busy day in Israel for news stations, talk radio and Jerusalem commuters.  President Biden arrived in Israel on Air Force One for his first Presidential visit.  For Israelis, this meant that Highway 1, which connects the airport to Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem, was completely shut down for a good part  of the day.  The President's convoy, alone, would create a traffic jam in Israel.  But with all  of the security concerns, travelling to Jerusalem today was probably not a good idea.  (That is an extreme understatement, almost  comedically so)  So we watched from the comfort of home.

This is President Biden's tenth visit to Israel, though his first as President of the United States.  First on the agenda was a short press conference at the airport.  The president of Israel, Isaac ("Bougie") Herzog, spoke first.  Then  Prime Minister Yair Lapid and finally, President Biden.  No one said anything of great significance as far as I can tell but there were gushing expressions  of friendship and the usual statements about the closeness of the relationship between Israel  and the U.S.

Biden's  next stop was a military stop to look at one of Israel's newest missile defence systems, a project which Israel has apparently developed along with the U.S.  After that, it was off to Yad Vashem, where President  Biden spoke with two Holocaust survivors for more than 10 minutes.

Optically, this has already seemed like a far better visit than President Obama's first visit, even though Biden might ultimately carry some similar messages.  But unlike Obama, Biden has gone out of his way, initially, to stress the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship and to do so with warmth and attention to messaging.  It remains to be seen what follows.

Israeli political leaders  were falling over themselves trying to be photographed with Biden.  Former Prime Minister Bennett inserted himself into a runway walk along the red carpet before officials whisked him away.  Current  Prime Minister Lapid made sure that he had some wonderfully photogenic moments with Biden.  Former Prime Minister and current leader of the opposition, Benjamin Netanyahu made sure that he actually got a warm handshake from Biden  - even though Biden was generally giving fist pumps to  most of the other attendees.  Even Yamina leader Ayelet  Shaked managed to  make her  way over to a position right  next to Biden.  It was actually quite amusing watching all  of this.

In any event, it is a strange visit since not very much is expected.  No  major breakthroughs with the Palestinians are likely to take place and it sounds unlikely that there will be any major deals between Israel and the U.S.   So what  is the purpose of this visit, which was  planned before the current Israeli government  imploded?

There seem to be three answers.  For one, President Biden is  trying to round up support for the American approach to Iran and  its quest for nuclear weapons.  He is flying  from  Israel to Saudi  Arabia, directly (a first) on Friday and will also be discussing  Iran with the Saudis.  So  one objective is to try and bolster support for a potential revival of the Obama orchestrated nuclear deal.  Neither the Israelis nor the  Saudis are too excited about this prospective deal and, in fact, the Iranians have  not even agreed to it. So it is unclear what, if anything, will happen on that  track.

Secondly, President Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss oil and to see if the Saudis can help the current  U.S. situation by increasing  daily production of oil and, hopefully, lowering  the  prices.   This is something that Americans are deeply concerned about as oil prices have rocketed up recently, as they have all over the world.  

Finally, there  is a geopolitical side to this as well.  Biden is hoping to continue to build on the "Abraham  Accords" by moving  Saudi Arabia and,  possibly other countries, closer to becoming participants.  Saudi Arabia has, to date, indicated that it  seeks a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians as a pre-condition to joining the accords.  At the same time, Saudi Arabia is looking to protect itself against a potential Iranian threat and some  sort of deal with Israel and the  United States would  be quite helpful in that regard.  So it will be very interesting to see what, if anything, is announced in Saudi Arabia about the Saudi relationship with Israel.  Rumours here are that more  airlines from  Israel will be able to overfly Saudi Arabia en route to the far east, which will save Israeli travellers many hours of  travelling time.

President Biden also agreed to a very interesting interview with Channel 12  Israeli reporter Yonit Levy.  She pushed him with some probing questions  about  his plans for  2024 (no comment), his relationship with Netanyahu, the real reasons for this current visit and whether or  not  he would authorize force against Iran  if they won't join a nuclear deal (he said he would as a last resort).  In particular, Levy asked him whether, if Netanyahu gets elected and becomes Prime Minister, there will again be a great "freeze" in the U.S. -Israel relationship.  Biden answered that the relationship is  with the country and not any particular leader - and that he would work with anyone who is elected.  Great answer, I thought.  This is really what Prime Minister Netanyahu should have been saying during the last U.S.  election campaign but of course he  chose to be partisan instead,  almost stumping for Trump's re-election campaign.

Overall, it should be an interesting few days.  President  Biden is scheduled  to attend  the opening ceremonies of the Maccabbi games, which will take place tomorrow at 7 p.m. Israel time. (12 p.m. Eastern).  There are some terrific Israeli musical acts scheduled to perform.  I am really looking forward to watching.   At $500 a ticket, we decided not to attend but I'm sure it will be great on TV.  It would  also be crazy getting in and out  of Jerusalem.  Aside from the opening ceremonies, I am also looking forward to watching my niece compete in the swimming competitions.  

Israeli TV update

Over the past couple of weeks, we watched the Beauty Queen of Jerusalem.  Of all the Israeli shows that I have seen over the past few years, including Fauda, Tehran, Shtisel and  others, this was probably my favourite.  I have always enjoyed historical fiction.  Beauty Queen traces the fictional Ermosa family, a  Sephardic family living in Jerusalem, from pre-World  War I through to the mid 1940s (in the first season at least).  

While at times the show  might seem like  a bit of a soap opera, it is set against the backdrop of life in Jerusalem, mostly in the 30s and 40s.  It deals with the relationship between the Jewish community and the  Ottoman rulers  initially - then subsequently, the British authorities and the tensions  with the Arab community.  The politics of the time also play a role.  There is discussion of the power of the Histadrut (the largest Israeli workers'  union of the time) balanced against the "revisionists"  (the pre-cursers to the modern more free-market Likud party).   The show  also looks at the pre-Independence military organizations in Israel (the  Hagana and "Etzel") and  the different  types  of operations these  groups were carrying out.  This is of course also set against the heavy backdrop of the rise of the Nazis in Germany, the  outbreak of the second World War and initial reports of the Holocaust.   

The first  season of the show was originally aired by YES TV in Israel in 2021 over 44 episodes, each of which are about half  hour in length.  This year, Netflix picked up the series and edited the first 44 episodes into two seasons of 10 episodes each, with English subtitles.  So  we watched the first  10 episodes on Netflix - which covers about 20-22 episodes of the Israeli version.  The rest hasn't yet been released on Netflix.   So we were left hanging....what  to do...

We  found that all 44 episodes are available on sdarot.buzz but without English  subtitles.  We couldn't resist and watched the 20 or so episodes that are not yet on Netflix.  It was quite compelling - we just  couldn't  stop watching.  Perhaps it is not for everyone.  Some  people have  apparently found  it a bit slow and  it does  flip back and forth between the 1920s  and the 1930s - sometimes you don't know what year you are  in.  But it all  comes  together.  It helps if you are a history  buff, particularly if you enjoy Israeli history.  But  I think that there  is enough in the show to enjoy it even if you are not so keen  on pre-Independence  Israeli  history.  Netflix has the English subtitles.  To watch on Sdarot, you will need fluent Hebrew.

In other Israeli TV news, the fourth season  of Fauda is  now out  - or is being released  weekly.  The first episode was shown  on Israeli TV tonight and  it will run for the next  10 Wednesdays (or so). After that, apparently, it will be released on Netflix worldwide.   So  if you are a big Fauda fan, you will get another round  of Fauda on Netflix this year.  It was action packed, suspenseful and entertaining  but it is too early to comment on the fourth  season  as a whole.

Finally, although this is in a slightly different category, we went  to see Fiddler on the Roof,  in Hebrew, at at the Cultural Centre  in Tel Aviv a theatre in the heart of the city.  I have, of course, seen the play many times in English  in New York  and Toronto.   This was my first time in Hebrew though I had heard the soundtrack.  Overall, it was an excellent production.  The lead character, Tevia (he is named  Tuvia in the Hebrew  Production) was played by Natan Datner and  he did an excellent  job.  He was a very convincing Tevia  with a powerful  voice.  Some  of the other performers were a bit weaker (for example Tevia's wife, Golda) But the Hudel performer was excellent as was Motel the Tailor.  

Even though I have seen the play many times, it is still an emotionally draining  experience, on so many levels.   The complete disappearance  of the Jewish communities of Europe is very real and personal.  It is the story of my  grandparents and great grandparents as it is for some many Jews around the world.  Together with that, the play touches on the challenges of maintaining tradition in the face of post-enlightenment modern realities and that is a also a subject that is very close to home.  What, if any, traditions will our children continue?  And even the subject of intermarriage, which was already a big  challenge for the U.S.  Jewish community when the play was  adapted in the 1960s (from Shalom Aleichem  stories written at the turn of the century) seems  to have an even more  powerful  impact in 2022 when U.S. intermarriage rates are higher than 50% and Canadian rates are not too far behind.  So there is lots to think about as the town of Anatevka is eliminated and the population is expelled.  I won't deny shedding a tear or two (or maybe more than that).  

Quick Political Comment

As you may know, Israel is in the midst of another election campaign with voting to take  place on November 1, 2022. I will write some more detailed election related blogs as the election draws closer.  I will simply say  at this point that it is too close to call.

Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of his criminal trial, which is getting lots of  press these days.  He is hoping that  he  can come up with a coalition of  more than 61 seats and get himself back in to the Prime Minister's chair.  So far, polls seem to be indicating that  this is possible but far from certain.  

Former Prime Minister Bennett has announced that he is dropping out of politics.  His party, Yamina, is now being led by Ayalet Shaked and it is not clear that Yamina will  pass the electoral threshhold.  Yamina may well join Likud or some other party before election day.

Current Prime Minister Lapid is polling at anywhere from 22 to 26 seats.  It would be quite a feat for him to stay in power but anything is possible.

There are a  variety of other  political suitors pushing in different  ideological directions.  Should be quite entertaining over the  next two months. I anticipate that there will be all  kinds of mudslinging, underhanded tactics, insults and lies.  Everything  that western political campaigns seem to have these days.

Final  Comment

I couldn't leave this without stating the obvious - that airports are crazy these days and flights between  Toronto and  Tel-Aviv are completely full, incredibly pricey and more  disorganized than ever.  Airport waiting  times are very long.  It can take 2-3 hours to get through all of the security and check-in procedures to leave Israel.  Arriving in Israel is fairly efficient  generally, in contrast to arriving in Toronto  these days, which is a complete disaster.  

With El Al scheduled to discontinue its Canadian service at the end of October, 2022, prices  will  undoubtedly rise sharply, which is unfortunate.  I can't  say that I have been a loyal  supporter of El Al, since the benefits of  flying Air Canada were overwhelmingly superior.  But I know that many Israelis prefer to fly El Al since it "feels like  home."  They will be very disappointed that this option is no longer available to and from Toronto.

I suppose,  soon enough, you will be able to fly Saudi Arabian Airlines to Tel-Aviv from Toronto.  After all, you can already fly  Emirates, though I haven't tried it yet.  However, you might want to get  here, Israel will be happy to welcome you.

And with that I will sign off on this one and  wish you  all the best until next time.