Thursday, October 20, 2022

Less Than Two Weeks Until Israeli Elections...



Itamar Ben-Gvir (Rueters)
We are officially into the period that is called "after the Holidays" in Israel, where everyone is supposed to attend to the list of things that they have been putting off.  The holiday period began with Rosh Hashanah on September 26, 2022 and has now ended with Simchat Torah on October 17, 2022, the last day of "Yom Tov" until Passover.  It would be nice to spread the holidays out a bit more.  Although Chanukah is in December, it is a "minor" holiday - so Israelis do not generally get any paid days off at that time.  We would do well to pick up the Canadian example - and turn a bunch of weekends into long weekends for no particularly discernible reason - other than to give people a bit of a break.

For many Israelis, not much work took place during this holiday period.  Universities hadn't yet reopened, many people took extended vacations out of the country and people were generally in holiday mode.  This whole time period occurred during an election campaign, which also seemed to be operating at a much slower pace.

But now, it is back to work, back to school, back to the grind and back to the election campaign. Less than two weeks to go until the election (which is actually a national holiday in Israel) and no defined public holidays for some time, other than election day itself.

So in preparation for the big day, I have put together a bit of a rundown on the competing parties with some running commentary.  If you are not particularly interested in the upcoming Israeli elections - I will be writing another blog shortly on some other topics - so I guess you can skip this one - though I'll try to make it as digestible as I can.

If you have been reading my blogs over the years, you will recall that I have written several of these before.  Some of the content will remain fairly similar since many of the parties are still the same.  But some parties have changed and there have been some other shake ups.  In a way, I think there is less to cover this time around since there are fewer parties.  There are 11 parties that are likely to make it into the Knesset and two more that have a chance but are likely to miss the cut off.  While this is still quite a bit in comparison to the number of parties in Canada, the U.S. or many other places, it is somewhat more manageable than it has been in recent years.

So here goes....

A Look at the List of Parties:

1.    The Likud

Led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ("Bibi"), the Likud is poised to garner the most seats of any party running, which is also the situation in the current Knesset.  Current polls have put the  Likud party at anywhere between 30 and 35 seats.  Interestingly, two polls that were released yesterday were the ones that had Likud at 30 and 31 seats, the lowest showing for Likud in several months.

Likud is a right of centre party emphasizing somewhat free market economics, a hard line position towards the Palestinians and a willingness to compromise on just about anything in the social-economic sphere with the ultra-orthodox parties in order to attain power.  

Netanyahu is Israel's longest serving Prime Minister, having served as Prime Minister for more than 15 years in total.  He knows his way around an election campaign. At the same time, he is in the midst of a criminal trial on three sets of charges including bribery, deception and breach of public trust.  It is hard to read how the trial is going since much of it is not open to the public and it is such a long trial.  But there is no indication that it is going to end any time soon although some plea bargain negotiations have taken place.

In order to form a government, the Likud will need to combine their 30-35 seats with a sufficient additional number to reach 61 (the required majority in the 120 seat Knesset) by entering coalition agreements with other parties.  According to recent polls, Bibi and his potential partners are likely to wind up with a total of between 58 and 62 seats so it is really quite a toss-up.

Netanyahu has been running an energetic and interesting campaign.  He has released a biography - just three weeks before the election - in English and Hebrew.  He has held write-in contests and visited in the Sukkahs of winning Israeli families across the country.  He has run an extremely active twitter and social media campaign and has avoided being interviewed.

Despite his ongoing legal troubles, Bibi has managed to reign in his Likud party and keep a lid on any public dissent.  It is quite comparable to what Trump has been able to do in the U.S. with the Republican party, though Trump has probably faced more internal dissent than Bibi.  

The focus of Bibi's campaign has been to portray Prime Minister Yair Lapid as "weak" and a "sell-out."  For Bibi and the Likud, the campaign has not been particularly ideological.  He has attacked Lapid and the left wing parties, Meretz and Labour, arguing that they will sell out Israel to the Arabs and the Arab parties.  He has attacked Ayelet Shaked with the same line of attack.  But he has also had to fend off the extremists to his right by moving a bit to the centre on some social issues.  

I would say that his messages have lacked cohesion but there is a common theme.  It is mainly about getting Bibi back into power and finding a way to resolve his legal issues.  It is the cult of personality that "only Bibi" can run the country.  

As of now, it seems that the odds are pretty close to 50-50 that he will be able to form a government.  One option is that Likud and its coalition partners - the two ultra orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with the Religious Zionist ("RZ") party - will get more than 61.  If that is the case, Israel will have the furthest right government that it has ever had in power.  It will be a government in which Bibi will be at the left (or even far left) of the governing coalition.

A second option is that the Likud and its bloc will fall just short - at 58-60.  This might produce a stalemate and another election.  Alternatively - one of the parties in the opposition might agree to make a deal and join the government. As of now, it is hard to imagine which party would do that.  I don't believe that it would be Yesh Atid or Meretz but it is possible that some of the members of Gantz's party, the "national unity" party could be pursuaded with the right offer.  They will have a very hard time joining a government with the RZ party but stranger things have happened in Israeli political history.  Likud will also lobby the Labour party and the Ra'am party with various offers.  

My conclusion is that the Likud has the best chance of forming a government unless the poll numbers change drastically.  If Likud cannot form a government, there is a reasonable chance that there will be another election.  The current governing bloc, led by Yesh Atid, seems unlikely to muster sufficient support but that is the third most likely outcome.

2. Yesh Atid

Led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid is the second largest party according to every poll that has been issued.  The party is a centrist party, willing to enter into coalition agreements with parties across the political spectrum. Yesh Atid is very strong on anti-corruption measures and is one of the few parties that is unwilling, under any circumstances, to provide a "get out of jail free card" to Bibi.  

According to recent polls, Yesh Atid is running at between 23 and 26 seats.  The two most recent polls put them at 25.

Lapid has so far run a fairly low key campaign.  He has focused on performing his duties as Prime Minister.  Over the past few weeks, that has included negotiating a territorial waters deal with Lebanon to address the issue of natual gas reservoirs in disputed waters.  He has also been pushing for a more pro-Ukranian Israeli policy and more of a break from Israeli relations with Russia.  This would contrast with Bibi who prides himself on his strong relationship with Putin and has been eerily silent on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Yesh Atid will probably ramp up its campaign over these crucial weeks but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful.  Lapid has been careful not to attack the parties on his left too much because some of them are perilously close to not passing the electoral threshhold.  At the same time, he would like to have sufficient army and military credibility to retain support of the centre-right.  I would imagine that he will ramp up the attacks on Bibi and corruption over the next two weeks, while also emphasizing the extreme nature of the government that Bibi would form if he wins the election.

As of now, it seems unlikely that Yesh Atid can win this election.  I think they would need to get to 30 or 31 seats, which they don't seem to have.  Even then, they would also need their coalition partners to have enough to reach 61.  I guess we will have to see what Lapid can do over the next two weeks of campaigning and whether he can close the gap.  If he can't, his next best option is a stalement - which is almost as good as a win.  Lapid would continue to be the caretaker Prime Minister, another election would be called three or four months down the road and the pressure would probably increase on Bibi to step down.  At some point, if Bibi doesn't win, the dissent in his party is likely to start to grow.  

So overall, a win for Lapid and his coaltion does not look likely  - I think less than 20%.  But the chance of a stalemate is close to 40% and that is probably close enough to a win for Lapid.  That is, as long as none of his coalition partners bolt and join Bibi.

3. National Unity

This is Benjamin Gantz's party that was formerly "Blue and White" and includes Gideon Sa'ar.  The party is chock full of military - including the leader himself.  Politically they are centre-right, a bit to the right of Yesh Atid on most issues.  In fact, a number of the National Unity members are former Likud members who might even like to run for Likud if it was led by a different leader.  

Gantz has in the past buckled and formed a rotation government deal with Bibi, though as we know, Bibi took his turn and then collapsed the government before Gantz could become Prime Minister by refusing to pass a budget.  This National Unity party is running at a solid 11-12 seats.

They have been running as the party that could be the alternative to Netanyahu since they maintain that they would be more attractive to the ultra-orthodox than Lapid.  With all due respect to Gantz, I don't see it.  He is not a charismatic leader and from where I sit, seems to have little chance of forming the government.

His party stole Bibi's slogan outright and ran on the slogan "Only Gantz can do it" - which was Bibi's slogan the past few elections.  His party has also plastered posters everywhere saying "After him" or "Follow him" I suppose.  But since very few people see him as a strong leader, these posters seem to be somewhat comical.  

I think there is a chance that this party could end up with 9 or 10 seats.  However, in order to form a government, Lapid needs Gantz's party to have a good showing and wind up in the 11-12 range - while getting 30-32 himself.  It's tough call since these two parties are fighting over some of the same voters.

4. Religious Zionists

The biggest growth for any party is in the support for the Religious Zionist party, which is a coalition of three different far right parties.  The party is led by Betzalel Smotrich, an extreme nationalist.  He advocates running the State of Israel based on "Torah law."  He at one point declared himself to be a "proud homophobe" and generates all kinds of controveries just about every time he speaks.  Just this week, he proposed legislation that would remove the offences of breach of trust and deception from the Israeli criminal code, which would all but ensure that Bibi's trial would end.   

The party also features Itamar Ben Gvir, another gun-toting extremist, who has a history of extremism and involvement with the Kahanist movement.  Ben Gvir has, in the past, advocated expelling "disloyal" Arabs from Israel.

This fine collection of folks is currently polling at numbers between 12 and 15 seats.  If they wind up with those numbers, they will be indespensible to any coalition that Bibi might put together and will demand cabinet seats.  

This would certainly create significant international pressure.  A government with such far-right extremists would greatly harm Israel's image, not to mention the domestic damage that it would engender.

Some of this support has come from people who previously supported Bennett's party, the "Jewish Home," which is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  The RZ party also received boosts in its support as a result of riots in Lod, Acre and other parts of Israel where Israeli Arabs took part in violent acts against Jewish civilians in Israeli cities. Apparently, there are also many young Israelis poised to vote for this party.

I think we should all be concerned.  I would imagine that many people will refuse to tell polsters that they are voting for the RZ party.  I think they could wind up with 15-17 seats.  If they take those seats from Likud votes, that still might not change the overall bloc numbers.  But a government with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in its cabinet is frightening indeed.

The Israeli TV show "Eretz Nehederet" ("Its a wonderful country") satirized the prospect of a Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government by using a clip called "Springtime for Hitler" from the show The Producers.  Here is the clip in case you are interested - though I don't think there are subtitles.  Brilliant but frightening satire in my view....

5. Shas and 6. Torah Judaism

Shas and Torah Judaism are two ultra-orthodox parties.  

Shas is led by convicted fraudster Aryeh Deri and appeals to Jews of "Mizrahi" (eastern) origin - i.e. sephardic Jews.  For some reason, Shas also gets a lot of support from non-ultra-orthodox Israelis.  They claim that they are a socially activist party - out to help the poor get better access to medical care, religious education, food etc.,  Shas is polling at 7-8 seats which it seems to get consistently no matter what else is happening.  They have pledged to stick with Bibi, who will be happy to pay just about any price that they demand for their support.

Torah Judaism is an ultra-religious party mainly supported by Jews of western origin ("Ashkenazim").  They are more focused on getting money for Yeshivas, implementing stricter religious laws, defending the rabbinate and avoiding military service.  Their leaders have also faced criminal charges on several occasions and they are as likely as anyone else to make outrageous comments about gays, women, reform Jews and anyone else who is not ultra-orthodox.  The are polling at 6-7 seats and are also committed to joining Bibi for the right price.  However, some Torah Judaism members have speculated, out loud, that they might consider joining another government if the only alternative was being part of the opposition.  So there may be a narrow window here.  If Bibi can't form a government, another group might be able to buy the support of Torah Judaism.  This is where Gantz comes in.  He seems to think he can convince both Shas and Torah Judaism to separate from Bibi and join his party as part of a coaltion.

However, using Gantz's math, lets say he gets 13 seats.  Add the 14-15 from Shas and Torah Judaism - and that gets us to 27-28.  He would need to get Lapid on side - with 25-30 and then some of the other left parties - which are somewhat anti-ultra Orthodox.  Again, I don't see this happening but I suppose anything is possible.

7. Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home)

Led by Avigdor Lieberman, this party has historically been supported by Russian speaking Israelis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected support for the party since Lieberman, in the past, has been a strong Putin supporter.  He would like to keep Israel close to neutral in the war but this has started to create a backlash, especially among Russian speakers with Ukrainian origins.  Lieberman is seen has having done a fairly good job as finance minister in the current government and is likely to support Lapid again.  The party tends to be to the right on national security issues but avowedly secular on state-religion issues.  In Israeli political terms, that means that they see eye to eye with the anti-Haredi left on some issue but are closely aligned with Likud views (or even more right wing views) on some other issues - including issues involving the Palestinians.  They are polling at 5-7 seats.

8. Meretz and 9. Labor

These two parties are the stalwarts of the Israeli left.  Labor has traditionally been aligned with the Histadrut the largest workers' union in Israel. It is currently led by Merav Michaeli who has also brought a strong general equality focus to the party. The party is polling in the range of 4 to 6 seats.  It is most likely to join a government with Lapid and highly unlikely to consider joining Bibi.  

Meretz has traditionally been the most left wing Israeli party with a focus on secularism and equality and has been a strong advocate for a resolution with the Palestinians as well as for Arab-Jewish equality within the state.  The most recent leader of Meretz, Nitzan Horowitz, has served in the cabinet of the current government.  He stepped down after the election was called and was replaced by Zehava Gal-On who has pledged to bring the party "back to its roots."  Meretz is likely to support a Yesh Atid government and highly unlikely to join Netanyah or any government with the ultra-religious.  They are polling at 4 to 6 seats.

10. Hadash-Ta'al and 12. Bal'ad

For the past few elections, three Arab Israeli parties have run under one umbrella as the "United Arab List" or the "United Joint List."  They have been able to muster as many as 12 to 15 seats.  This year, they had a falling out and one party, the most extremist, "Bal'ad" left the group. Balad is now running at less than 2% and will most likely not make the cut off.  Hadash Ta'al is polling at 4 seats, which seems suprisingly low but is probably due to significant Arab Israeli apathy for the coming elections.  Hadash Ta'al has never taken an active role in an Israeli government though they have supported legislation and votes "from the outside."  While Balad was unwilling to be part of any Israeli government in any circumstances, Hadash Ta'al might look to the recent Ra'am example and try to negotiate itself into the government.  The right wing Jewish parties have argued that this would be illegitimate since Hadash Ta'al are generally anti-Zionist parties.  Hadash Ta'al would have to be prepared to accept Israel as a Jewish state to enter the government.  I'm not sure that they would be willing to take this step.  At a minimum these parties could be the key to preventing Bibi from forming a government.

13. Ra'am

Led by Monsour Abbas, Ra'am played an active role in the most recent Israeli government, the first time ever that an Arab Israeli party formed an active part of a governing coalition.  Although there were hiccups, Ra'am would almost certainly join Lapid again if that could lead to a government being formed.  Ra'am is currently polling at about 4 seats.  On social and economic issues, they are further to the right than Hadash Ta'al since Ra'am party members are religious Muslims.  Hadash Ta'al tend to be more secular socialists.  In the past, Bibi had tried to negotiate with Ra'am.  At this point, however, the RZ party is likely to be a key component of any government that Bibi might form.  And they have stated repeatedly and emphatically that they will not join a government with Ra'am or any other Arab Israeli parties.  So Ra'am's only option will be to join a Lapid government (or a Gantz government if can come up with a credible option).

14. Habayit Hayehudi

This is former Prime Minster Bennett's party.  He has left politics.  The party is now being led by Ayelet Shaked.  This was once a religious Zionist party, but Shaked is avowedly secular.  She is on the right of political spectrum but she took an active role in the most recent government as a cabinet minister.  She has now said that all of that was a mistake and that she shouldn't have joined.  One of her campaign slogans stated that "everything is forgiven on Yom Kippur" and she has publicly apologized for "sinning against her voters."  They don't seem to be listening or granting the repentance that she is seeking.  She is well under the requisite threshhold according to every poll that has been released.  She is willing to join a Bibi-led government if she gets past the threshold.  Her willingness to do this - leaves potential voters wondering why they should vote for her instead of just voting for Bibi.

Conclusion

Given all of this math, there are aren't too many realistic possibilities.  But here they are, handicapped by an amateur (yours truly)...just for you lucky readers.

1. Bibi forms a government with 61+ including the two Haredi parties and the RZ party.  38%

2. Stalemate - and a new election is called - 32%

3. Lapid forms a government with or without the support of Hadash/Ta'al - 20%

4. Gantz forms a government, with one or both of the Haredi parties - 5%

5. Some other government or option that I haven't thought of....5%.

Of course it is impossible to measure how well I do - since if any one of these occur - we will never really know how likely that event was - only that it actually occurred.   

I might adjust my odds as the election gets closer based on news, events and newer polls.  But for now. buckle up.  It should be a bumpy ride and I think there is a good chance that we will not really know where things are headed until at least a few weeks after the election, which is taking place on November 1, 2022.

I hope that you have found this useful.  I will probably send out another blog shortly addressing some issues with much less politics.  Wishing everyone a terrific 5783 and all the best in this "after the holidays" period.




Monday, October 3, 2022

October 2022 - Day Before Yom Kippur

It is the day before Yom Kippur - the holiest day of the Jewish Calendar.  Okay there is an argument about that - it may well be that Shabbat - every Saturday - is actually considered the holiest day - but let's put that aside for a bit.  If you have never been to Israel on Yom  Kippur - it is really an amazing experience.  All traffic ceases to a halt - other than an handful of emergency and security vehicles.  Even secular Israelis refrain from using their cars.  There is no "law" that bans cars - but I guess the collective society has decided that everyone is willing to agree to make the day special.

Non observant Israelis have turned Yom Kippur into a national biking holiday.  People who are not going to synagogue - get on their bikes - by themselves or with friends and family.  Some take cross country routes - using highways that are normally filled with cars but are now filled only with bicycles.  Some use the opportunity to teach their children to ride bikes - since there are so many "safe" places to do that on this day.  Others use skateboards, roller blades or even electric bikes - and some just walk or jog.

So far, we have stayed on the sidelines from this alternate Yom Kippur celebration - since we tend to observe the day in more traditional fashion.  It would actually be quite amazing to be able to do both - have one day a year with no cars just for biking and walking - without that day falling on Yom  Kippur.  But I guess life is always filled with choices.

Instead, as you might  know, we join our friends and Synagogue community in running Yom Kippur prayer services - tefillot.  For the past 10-15 years, we have been running a satellite service  in Ra'anana - since our main synagogue is in K'far Saba - about 7 km away.   We either hold it in an available synagogue in Ra'anana (some synagogues rent out gyms or halls for Yom Kippur since there are too many people for their synagogue) or we use someone's house or backyard.  We have hosted once but fortunately we have found another venue at a lucky friend's house.  I have been conducting the Neilah service for somewhere in the range of 10 years.  That is the last service of Yom Kippur which runs for about the last hour and half of the fast (no food no water for 26 hours) - and everyone  is standing for most of it - while I get to sing prayers  for most of that time....hopefully with everyone  joining in.

About three or four years ago, we added the Kol Nidrei service - before that - everyone in our group was attending at other synagogues or walking to our shul in K'far Saba.  I agreed to take that on - so that is another 2 hours or so of singing at the start of the fast.  On top of that, we have a full service in the morning - though we abbreviate it a bit.  Lots  of work to do there to  share the Torah reading etc.,  All in all, it is quite a bit of preparation, quite an investment  of  time - but quite rewarding.  Hopefully it is spiritually rewarding for those attending.  

So really - I should probably be preparing  some more now - "cramming" rather  than taking the time to write  this blog.  Or cooking for the pre-fast meal....Or cooking for the break-fast meal....or  resting.  Well.  Much of the cooking is done.  And I think I'm fairly ready since I have done this  more than a few times.  But it always helps to review.

As I am writing - tens of thousands of people are at the Kotel in Jerusalem, attending at the annual last minute selichot ("forgiveness") prayers.  People come from all over the country to sing  and pray late into the night.  Since driving  is permitted  - people are able to attend selichot from anywhere in the country whereas during Yom Kippur itself, people can only get to the Kotel if they can walk there.  Or bike, I suppose....

There are some  people who manage the blend the  two.  Perhaps they bike all day on Yom Kippur and then find  some Neilah service to attend where  they can hear the final shofar blown marking the end of Yom  Kippur.  Even at our small service, we probably wind up with double the normal number right near the end.   We were once at a synagogue in Mazkeret  Batya (a small town near Rehovot) for the Neilah service.  As the end  of Yom Kippur drew near, the synagogue filled up so completely it was standing  room only.  In fact, people were looking in to the synagogue from windows surrounding the building and at the door entrance.  It was like everyone  in the town showed up - secular and religious  for the last 15-20 minutes of Yom Kippur.  All waiting for the sound  of final shofar note.

Election Update

As you might also know, Israel's next election is only one month away.  It will be held on November 2, 2022.  This blog would be too long if I reviewed all of the political parties and their chances so I will do that in another blog - closer to the  actual election.  But I do have a few short comments.

First of all, there is a reasonable chance that this 2022 election will end  up in a stalemate.  Former  Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Likud party are polling at anywhere from 30-35 seats.  No Israeli party ever manages to get a majority government by itself - with 61 seats required to form a government in the 120 seat Knesset.  Netanyahu is counting on the support of two ultra-religious parties - Shas (Ultra-religious Sephardic party) and Yehadut HaTorah (Torah Judaism) - which are likely to get about 14 seats combined.  He is also counting  on support from an ultra-right party - the Religious Zionist  party, led by Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar  Ben Gvir.  These are some pretty scary folks - who would like to turn Israel into a state run according to Jewish religious law - and  have little appreciation for democracy.   But for some reason, they are polling at somewhere in the range of 10-13 seats, which is shockingly high.  So  if you add all of that up - there is a scenario where these four parties  could combine and get past  61 and form a government.   It would be Israel's most right wing government ever, heavily weighted with religious extremists.   It would also be a government that  would be likely to help Netanyahu get out  of his legal troubles even though he is in the middle of a criminal trial.

The Israeli Knesset

The possibilities for the current  Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, look somewhat more  daunting.  His party has been polling at somewhere between 22 and 26  seats.  He needs a whole constellation of parties to join him, from across the political spectrum, to get to 61.  Some of those parties are flirting with crossing the election threshold - set at 4% of the total votes.  Assuming  that they all pass through - Lapid could  count  on support from Labour (left wing  workers' party,  historically), Meretz  (left wing  secularists), Yisraeli Beytenu (Right wing  nationalist/Russian immigrants party) that might all add up to Between 38 and 42.  There is another centrist  party running, led by Benny Gantz - who swears up and down that he won't  join Netanyahu (though  he did once  before).  They are polling at 10 to 12 seats, though they want to try and get Gantz into  the Prime Minister's seat.  If they join  Lapid, that could get them to between 48 and 54.  If they  cut a deal with the Ra'am (Arab/Muslim fundamentalist party) again, they could get up to between 52 and 58.  Still three short.  

So unless the numbers change dramatically between now and November 2, 2022, Israel is likely to wind up with either a stalemate and another election or a right wing government, led by Bibi.   That being said - a month is a long time.  Numbers could change quite a bit.  Buckle up.  It should be interesting.

Sports News

The Israel under 21 soccer team has qualified for the European Championships - which is very exciting for Israelis since soccer is the most popular sport  here.  Unfortunately, the senior  team  didn't  qualify for the World Cup, which starts in November in Qatar.  It is simply too difficult for Israel to qualify.   Instead of having  to play teams from its region, the Middle  East, Israel is stuck in the European division, which makes it much harder to qualify.  This is due to Israel's lack of peaceful relations with many of the surrounding  countries - or to put it another way - the refusal of those countries to recognize Israel's right to exist.   Maybe  the day is getting  closer when Israel will have to play Egypt, Jordan,  Saudi Arabia, Iran  and  Iraq to qualify.  But for now, we still have to get past France, Portugal, Germany and  others, which is much more  difficult.  

Meanwhile, with my relative lack of interest in watching soccer, I have preferred to jump on the bandwagon and  watch our home  town Blue Jays - having one of their best seasons ever.  Playoffs start this week - which means watching games that start at 2 a.m. here in Israel.  I'm hoping to be back in Toronto for some really meaningful Blue  Jay playoff games.

I'm also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills - the closest thing Toronto has to an NFL home town team.  I have been to many games in Buffalo.  While they have had some fantastic seasons, inlcuding four losing  Super Bowl appearances in a row - the 2022-23 edition of the Bills may be their best team ever.  That also means watching at some crazy hours when  I'm in Israel - though if they play a 1 p.m. game - that is a very manageable  8 p.m. start here  in Israel.

I am going to wrap this up for now and  wish everyone who is observing a Gmar Hatima Tova - may you have a meaningful fast - and be inscribed in the good books of life  and everything positive for the coming New Year.  I hope to write  some  more soon - likely with a bit more political analysis.





Thursday, September 8, 2022

September 2022: Political Comments, Wineries, Sports, Festivals and General Notes

I am a bit behind getting to my blog but I thought I would throw this one together to comment on a few different  issues.  Maybe I will put together one more just before Rosh Hashanah, which is quickly approaching.

Israeli Politics

Firstly, what  could one of my blogs be without at least some comments on Israeli politics?  As you might know, we have yet another election scheduled - for November 1, 2022.  Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling out all the stops  trying to get himself back into power.  I would say it is going to be very close. According to a few different recent Israeli polls, here is an approximate estimate of where things stand in terms of projected seats by party (poll predictions):

Likud: (Party of Former Prime Minister Netanyahu):           31-33 seats

Yesh Atid (Party of current Interim Prime Minister Lapid):  22-24

National Unity (Party led by Benny Gantz):                         12-13

Shas (Ultra-Orthodox Mizrahi (eastern) Party:                        8-10

Labor (Left wing "workers" party, led by Merav Micaeli):     5

United Torah Judaism (Ultra-Orthodox Ashkanazi party):      7

Yisrael Beytenu (Led by Lieberman):                                        5-6

Religious Zionist Party (Ultra Nationlist - Smotrich/Ben Gvir)  10-13

Meretz (Far left, secularist party):                                            5

Joint List (Arab parties, largely anti-Zionist):                          5-6

Ra'am (Arab party, led by Monsour Abbas):                            4

So if we add all that up - by looking at who could  go with who, we get something like this:  

Netanyahu (Likud), together with the two ultra-Orthodox parties and the RZP is running at 56 to 63.  Obviously, if these parties could put together 63 seats, they would form a far-right wing, narrow government though it would probably be relatively stable for the next 2-3 years.  This would be a government of vengence in my view, which would immediately try to change the law in several areas, especially in the area of religious-secular issues in Israel, budgeting (especially for Orthodox and  Ultra-Orthodox groups) and extensive increased settlement building.  This type of government would try to "roll back" any changes that had been made over the past two years by the current government and would do everything it could to assist Netanyahu in getting out of his legal  problems.

If they fall short of 61, they will try to convince Ganz and his "National Unity" Party to join the government.  Given that Gantz's party could have 10-12 seats, it is definitely a possibility that this could happen though it is unclear who would go first as Prime Minister and what Netanyahu would have to promise Gantz to get him to join the government.  Nevertheless, I don't rule this out especially since Gantz has shown  in the past that he  is prepared to make deals with Netanyahu.  One  would assume that the inclusion of Gantz would moderate the government somewhat but it would still be a very right-leaning government.

On the other side of the ledger, Lapid's "bloc" is running at between 49 and 53, without Ra'am.  If we add back in Ra'am - that would get them to between 53 and 57, still not enough to form a government.  This group would need to make a deal with one or both of the Ultra-Orthodox parties, which seems quite unlikely.  It doesn't look like there are any other potential participants.

Given these numbers, it is possible that there will be another stalemate and that this might finally force Netanyahu to consider resigning from the leadership of the Likud party.  But I wouldn't bet on this.  Unless something dramatically changes, it looks like Israel is heading for some type of right wing government, either with the participation of Gantz's party  or without.  Lapid and his potential coalition partners would all need a big change in the  polling  numbers to be in a position to form a government.  As of right now, that seems unlikely.

I will watch the polls and see if anything interesting develops but with less than two months to go - this is where things seem to be headed.

Israeli TV and Sports

As you may know, the fourth season of Fauda is out and has been airing on Israeli TV, one episode at a time.  The grand finale will be next Wednesday, September 14, 2022.  After that, I understand it will be released worldwide on Netflix.  So if you are a Fauda fan, this season will surely keep you riveted to the screen.  "Fauda" means chaos in Arabic.  This show is definitely chaotic.  Violent, pressure-packed, intense and dramatic, it makes for some very compelling TV.  I would say that the the fourth season has been  one of the best though we are still waiting for the  culminating  episode.

The big news in Sports here in Israel is that the Maccabi Haifa soccer team made it into the European "Champions League."  That is a very big deal for European  and Israeli football (soccer) fans.   Next week, Paris St Germaine will be playing a home game in Haifa - which means that soccer superstar Lionel Messi, among others, will be arriving in Israel for a game.  This is really a huge sports event here and tickets are very hard to come by.  I have no plans to go in person but I will probably jump on the bandwagon and watch it on TV.  Expectations are not very high for Maccabi Haifa against such strong international competition.  But just being there is a big accomplishment for the Haifa squad.

As a Torontonion, on the other hand, I am very excited about the Toronto  Blue Jays this year, who have an excellent (though often inconsistent) baseball team.  When in Israel, this means watching games from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. (or sometimes longer).  About 20 games left to go in the regular season and the Blue Jays are still in a playoff spot, so I may be keeping strange hours in the coming weeks.  Also quite excited about the Buffalo Bills, who play their season  opener tonight and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who begin the season in about a month.  All of this means keeping a semblance of Toronto hours, while here in Israel - not an easy feat.

A quick musical mention - a blast from the past - the "Counting Crows" are playing  in Ra'anana at the Ra'anana ampitheatre next week.  Not sure I will make it to that but it sounds like it could be fun.  I might go see Tamir Grinburg instead,  winner of last year's "Rising Star" competition on Israeli reality TV.

On my recent  trip back to Israel, on Air Canada, I watched a few Israeli movies on the plane.  Nothing too memorable, but it is worth mentioning that if you look for  these movies in the entertainment system, they are available.

Worthwhile Sight  Seeing Mentions

We  took a few trips  recently to places that we had been to in the past but seemed worth visiting again.  

Photo #3
In late July, we  arranged a tour of the Israeli Supreme Court.  This is a fascinating tour, filled with all kinds of interesting information on the details of the building itself, the history and  role  of the Israeli Supreme Court, and a chance to watch some live proceedings.  It can be arranged in English or  many other  languages - and it is free.  Obviously this is a sight of very high interest for lawyers from around the world, but I think many other people  would also enjoy visiting.

Last week, we  went for a tour of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament  building.  This is also quite an interesting  tour, which takes about 1.5 hours.  It is free and  can be arranged in English, Hebrew or several other languages.  Like the tour of the Supreme  Court it includes quite a bit of information on the history of the Knesset, the building itself, the Israeli political system and other interesting tidbits.  We had a terrific guide and really enjoyed the tour.

I have included pictures  of the Chagall Art that adorns the Main Knesset entrance and reception hall area.  We spent a significant of time looking at and discussing  these photos.

While in the Knesset, we happen to see a number of current Knesset members wandering around.  One of them was Ayelet Shaked.  Several visitors were stopping her to ask for a picture.  We  didn't.  According to current  polls, Shaked and her  party are unlikely to make it to the Knesset this  time around but she  is still actively campaigning.
Photo #1 (on the  Left)

Photo #2 (Middle)


  





Summer in Israel also features several interesting events and  festivals.  On the liquid refreshment side of things, there are three that I would like to mention.

Each year, the Israeli Museum in Jerusalem holds an annual Wine festival.   It is an outdoor festival at the Israeli Museum grounds, with beautiful views of Jerusalem.  It is usually held in July or August, generally after Tisha B'Av.   There are about 30-40 wineries in attendance.  Guests pay a set admission (120 Shequels this year - or about $40  USD) and receive a wine  glass that they can take  home at the end of the evening.   Guests can then wander around and taste wines from any of  the  different  wineries.   No additional  charges for the wine, though some of the wineries run out of their better wines  early in the evening.  There are also food kiosks selling a wide range  of items - cheese plates, pizza, baked potatoes, sushi.  The festival also includes live music and there was a really fun band playing a wide range of music  - from classic 70s rock to 80s and 90s pop music - to current Israeli music.  On the day  we attended, the band even  played a medley of Jewish Hora music.  Lots of fun.  Our whole family attended and everyone  had a really fun time.  (As crazy as it sounds, everyone is now old enough to drink alcohol legally....)

Next week, there is a Coffee festival in Tel-Aviv, which promises to showcase  more than 50 different  coffee  vendors.  Not sure how much coffee I can drink in one evening - and how long I might have to stay up afterwards until all of that caffeine wears off.  But I suppose, getting back to my sports comments, if there is a baseball or football game to be watched after the event, it may not be so bad.

There is also a beer festival coming up with more than 50 breweries.  I'm not that much of a beer connaisseur but it might still be a fun event.

Israeli Wineries

Speaking of wine, we managed to visit a few wineries over the past few months.

One was "Harei Galil" - the Galil  Mountain Winery.  This winery is in northern Israel, very close  to the Syrian  border.  The winery sits atop a mountain and the visitor's centre provides a beautiful view.  The visitor centre staff were  very friendly.  We arranged a tasting  of six different wines, accompanied by a plate of cheeses, grapes, apricots, dates, olives, breads and other  goodies, all strictly Kosher and  all quite tasty.   The wine itself was nice though not compelling enough for us to load up  with purchases.  Galil is one of Israel's largest wineries, producing more than 1.2 million bottles  a year.  They have some  very nice  high end wines as well as some drinkable mid-range offerings.  It is a beautiful visitor's centre and well worth a stop

Nearby, we also stopped  at one of my favourites, the Dalton  Winery, which produces some delicious wine.  We arrived a bit late so we had a choice of standing  at the bar and tasting whatever they poured us for free - or sitting  down  and ordering a set tasting.  Since  we were running a bit late, we opted  for the bar tasting.  The staff were very friendly and  helpful and poured us a variety of  tastings.  Here we couldn't resist buying  a few bottles though the prices were not really any better than the prices in Israeli wine shops.

We also visited the Tulip Winery which is another  one  of our favourites.  The Tulip Winery invests in and supports a community of adults with special needs, many of whom also work at the winery.  For that reason alone, it is one of  my favourites to visit and support.  We  opted for a 6-7 wine tasting package which also came with a nice selection of fruit, cheeses, breads and other goodies.  Like at the other wineries, the staff were very helpful and friendly.  We sat outdoors on high bar chairs.  It was quite warm but they had fans set up so it was comfortable.  

I will also mention that we visited the Ella Valley  Winery which is much  closer to the  Jerusalem area - located in the Judean Hills.  The tasting here was somewhat  less organized.  We  were served some olives with our wine.  Most of the wines we tasted were not particularly good.  Our guide  was friendly and fun - but not very experienced or  knowledgeable.  We  weren't able to taste the higher  end wines.  Not sure  we will be running  back to this winery for a visit though I have had some Ella  wines that I have quite enjoyed  over the years.

Maybe I am saving the last for the best.  Not far from Ella is the Tzora Winery.  Tzora is more of a boutique winery, which primarily produces  blended wines.  But their wines are all outstanding.  The visitors' centre is beautiful.  We have been there a few times.  On  our most recent vist, we were able to taste 5 or 6 wines and were provided with a wonderful cheese, bread and olive oil platter.  Everyone we were with enjoyed all of the wines.  Of  all the Israeli wineries we have visited, from a taste and experience  point of view, this is definitely one  of the best.

There are somewhere around  300 wineries now in Israel, so this is only a very  small sampling.  We  have probably been to close  to 50 of them but  still a long  way to go.  For any guests who are planning to visit -  we are happy to try and get  to as many  of the  remaining 250 as possible,  although we have visited many of the really good ones so we may have to go back for seconds  to some of those places.

Random Closing Thoughts

With the approach of another Jewish  New Year, Rosh Hashanah,  in just a few weeks, I think I would say  by way of sizing things up that the "State of the Nation is Strong."  Okay, I know I have  stolen that phrase, but I think it is true.   Israel has all kinds  of challenges, including Religious-Secular tensions, serious external threats as well  as sporadic terrorist attacks, ever  increasing cost of living and a variety of other types of tension.  But Israeli recently ranked #9 on a World  Happiness Index, which is quite an accomplishment.  That put Israel higher than Canada or the United States (#16  and  18 respectively).

Sometimes, it can feel like living in a powder keg, not knowing  if hostilities will break out any moment with Gaza, with the Palestinians,  with Hezbollah or with some other party.   And things will  not  really be truly peaceful  here unless and until we  can reach some type of resolution with the Palestinians.  But  Israel has come quite far since its founding more than 74 years ago and certainly seems like  a more stable, prosperous, vibrant - and yes even peaceful place than it  was  in the first  40-50 years of its existence.  Hopefully  we  will soon  find a way to address some of these outstanding  issues and ensure long term peace and stability.

If I  don't  get a chance to write before the holidays, I wish everyone a happy and healthy New Year - Shana Tova u'Metukah.


Wednesday, July 13, 2022

President Biden's Israel Visit, Beauty Queen of Jerusalem, Fiddler on the Roof in Hebrew and other comments

It has been quite a busy day in Israel for news stations, talk radio and Jerusalem commuters.  President Biden arrived in Israel on Air Force One for his first Presidential visit.  For Israelis, this meant that Highway 1, which connects the airport to Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem, was completely shut down for a good part  of the day.  The President's convoy, alone, would create a traffic jam in Israel.  But with all  of the security concerns, travelling to Jerusalem today was probably not a good idea.  (That is an extreme understatement, almost  comedically so)  So we watched from the comfort of home.

This is President Biden's tenth visit to Israel, though his first as President of the United States.  First on the agenda was a short press conference at the airport.  The president of Israel, Isaac ("Bougie") Herzog, spoke first.  Then  Prime Minister Yair Lapid and finally, President Biden.  No one said anything of great significance as far as I can tell but there were gushing expressions  of friendship and the usual statements about the closeness of the relationship between Israel  and the U.S.

Biden's  next stop was a military stop to look at one of Israel's newest missile defence systems, a project which Israel has apparently developed along with the U.S.  After that, it was off to Yad Vashem, where President  Biden spoke with two Holocaust survivors for more than 10 minutes.

Optically, this has already seemed like a far better visit than President Obama's first visit, even though Biden might ultimately carry some similar messages.  But unlike Obama, Biden has gone out of his way, initially, to stress the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship and to do so with warmth and attention to messaging.  It remains to be seen what follows.

Israeli political leaders  were falling over themselves trying to be photographed with Biden.  Former Prime Minister Bennett inserted himself into a runway walk along the red carpet before officials whisked him away.  Current  Prime Minister Lapid made sure that he had some wonderfully photogenic moments with Biden.  Former Prime Minister and current leader of the opposition, Benjamin Netanyahu made sure that he actually got a warm handshake from Biden  - even though Biden was generally giving fist pumps to  most of the other attendees.  Even Yamina leader Ayelet  Shaked managed to  make her  way over to a position right  next to Biden.  It was actually quite amusing watching all  of this.

In any event, it is a strange visit since not very much is expected.  No  major breakthroughs with the Palestinians are likely to take place and it sounds unlikely that there will be any major deals between Israel and the U.S.   So what  is the purpose of this visit, which was  planned before the current Israeli government  imploded?

There seem to be three answers.  For one, President Biden is  trying to round up support for the American approach to Iran and  its quest for nuclear weapons.  He is flying  from  Israel to Saudi  Arabia, directly (a first) on Friday and will also be discussing  Iran with the Saudis.  So  one objective is to try and bolster support for a potential revival of the Obama orchestrated nuclear deal.  Neither the Israelis nor the  Saudis are too excited about this prospective deal and, in fact, the Iranians have  not even agreed to it. So it is unclear what, if anything, will happen on that  track.

Secondly, President Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia to discuss oil and to see if the Saudis can help the current  U.S. situation by increasing  daily production of oil and, hopefully, lowering  the  prices.   This is something that Americans are deeply concerned about as oil prices have rocketed up recently, as they have all over the world.  

Finally, there  is a geopolitical side to this as well.  Biden is hoping to continue to build on the "Abraham  Accords" by moving  Saudi Arabia and,  possibly other countries, closer to becoming participants.  Saudi Arabia has, to date, indicated that it  seeks a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians as a pre-condition to joining the accords.  At the same time, Saudi Arabia is looking to protect itself against a potential Iranian threat and some  sort of deal with Israel and the  United States would  be quite helpful in that regard.  So it will be very interesting to see what, if anything, is announced in Saudi Arabia about the Saudi relationship with Israel.  Rumours here are that more  airlines from  Israel will be able to overfly Saudi Arabia en route to the far east, which will save Israeli travellers many hours of  travelling time.

President Biden also agreed to a very interesting interview with Channel 12  Israeli reporter Yonit Levy.  She pushed him with some probing questions  about  his plans for  2024 (no comment), his relationship with Netanyahu, the real reasons for this current visit and whether or  not  he would authorize force against Iran  if they won't join a nuclear deal (he said he would as a last resort).  In particular, Levy asked him whether, if Netanyahu gets elected and becomes Prime Minister, there will again be a great "freeze" in the U.S. -Israel relationship.  Biden answered that the relationship is  with the country and not any particular leader - and that he would work with anyone who is elected.  Great answer, I thought.  This is really what Prime Minister Netanyahu should have been saying during the last U.S.  election campaign but of course he  chose to be partisan instead,  almost stumping for Trump's re-election campaign.

Overall, it should be an interesting few days.  President  Biden is scheduled  to attend  the opening ceremonies of the Maccabbi games, which will take place tomorrow at 7 p.m. Israel time. (12 p.m. Eastern).  There are some terrific Israeli musical acts scheduled to perform.  I am really looking forward to watching.   At $500 a ticket, we decided not to attend but I'm sure it will be great on TV.  It would  also be crazy getting in and out  of Jerusalem.  Aside from the opening ceremonies, I am also looking forward to watching my niece compete in the swimming competitions.  

Israeli TV update

Over the past couple of weeks, we watched the Beauty Queen of Jerusalem.  Of all the Israeli shows that I have seen over the past few years, including Fauda, Tehran, Shtisel and  others, this was probably my favourite.  I have always enjoyed historical fiction.  Beauty Queen traces the fictional Ermosa family, a  Sephardic family living in Jerusalem, from pre-World  War I through to the mid 1940s (in the first season at least).  

While at times the show  might seem like  a bit of a soap opera, it is set against the backdrop of life in Jerusalem, mostly in the 30s and 40s.  It deals with the relationship between the Jewish community and the  Ottoman rulers  initially - then subsequently, the British authorities and the tensions  with the Arab community.  The politics of the time also play a role.  There is discussion of the power of the Histadrut (the largest Israeli workers'  union of the time) balanced against the "revisionists"  (the pre-cursers to the modern more free-market Likud party).   The show  also looks at the pre-Independence military organizations in Israel (the  Hagana and "Etzel") and  the different  types  of operations these  groups were carrying out.  This is of course also set against the heavy backdrop of the rise of the Nazis in Germany, the  outbreak of the second World War and initial reports of the Holocaust.   

The first  season of the show was originally aired by YES TV in Israel in 2021 over 44 episodes, each of which are about half  hour in length.  This year, Netflix picked up the series and edited the first 44 episodes into two seasons of 10 episodes each, with English subtitles.  So  we watched the first  10 episodes on Netflix - which covers about 20-22 episodes of the Israeli version.  The rest hasn't yet been released on Netflix.   So we were left hanging....what  to do...

We  found that all 44 episodes are available on sdarot.buzz but without English  subtitles.  We couldn't resist and watched the 20 or so episodes that are not yet on Netflix.  It was quite compelling - we just  couldn't  stop watching.  Perhaps it is not for everyone.  Some  people have  apparently found  it a bit slow and  it does  flip back and forth between the 1920s  and the 1930s - sometimes you don't know what year you are  in.  But it all  comes  together.  It helps if you are a history  buff, particularly if you enjoy Israeli history.  But  I think that there  is enough in the show to enjoy it even if you are not so keen  on pre-Independence  Israeli  history.  Netflix has the English subtitles.  To watch on Sdarot, you will need fluent Hebrew.

In other Israeli TV news, the fourth season  of Fauda is  now out  - or is being released  weekly.  The first episode was shown  on Israeli TV tonight and  it will run for the next  10 Wednesdays (or so). After that, apparently, it will be released on Netflix worldwide.   So  if you are a big Fauda fan, you will get another round  of Fauda on Netflix this year.  It was action packed, suspenseful and entertaining  but it is too early to comment on the fourth  season  as a whole.

Finally, although this is in a slightly different category, we went  to see Fiddler on the Roof,  in Hebrew, at at the Cultural Centre  in Tel Aviv a theatre in the heart of the city.  I have, of course, seen the play many times in English  in New York  and Toronto.   This was my first time in Hebrew though I had heard the soundtrack.  Overall, it was an excellent production.  The lead character, Tevia (he is named  Tuvia in the Hebrew  Production) was played by Natan Datner and  he did an excellent  job.  He was a very convincing Tevia  with a powerful  voice.  Some  of the other performers were a bit weaker (for example Tevia's wife, Golda) But the Hudel performer was excellent as was Motel the Tailor.  

Even though I have seen the play many times, it is still an emotionally draining  experience, on so many levels.   The complete disappearance  of the Jewish communities of Europe is very real and personal.  It is the story of my  grandparents and great grandparents as it is for some many Jews around the world.  Together with that, the play touches on the challenges of maintaining tradition in the face of post-enlightenment modern realities and that is a also a subject that is very close to home.  What, if any, traditions will our children continue?  And even the subject of intermarriage, which was already a big  challenge for the U.S.  Jewish community when the play was  adapted in the 1960s (from Shalom Aleichem  stories written at the turn of the century) seems  to have an even more  powerful  impact in 2022 when U.S. intermarriage rates are higher than 50% and Canadian rates are not too far behind.  So there is lots to think about as the town of Anatevka is eliminated and the population is expelled.  I won't deny shedding a tear or two (or maybe more than that).  

Quick Political Comment

As you may know, Israel is in the midst of another election campaign with voting to take  place on November 1, 2022. I will write some more detailed election related blogs as the election draws closer.  I will simply say  at this point that it is too close to call.

Former Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of his criminal trial, which is getting lots of  press these days.  He is hoping that  he  can come up with a coalition of  more than 61 seats and get himself back in to the Prime Minister's chair.  So far, polls seem to be indicating that  this is possible but far from certain.  

Former Prime Minister Bennett has announced that he is dropping out of politics.  His party, Yamina, is now being led by Ayalet Shaked and it is not clear that Yamina will  pass the electoral threshhold.  Yamina may well join Likud or some other party before election day.

Current Prime Minister Lapid is polling at anywhere from 22 to 26 seats.  It would be quite a feat for him to stay in power but anything is possible.

There are a  variety of other  political suitors pushing in different  ideological directions.  Should be quite entertaining over the  next two months. I anticipate that there will be all  kinds of mudslinging, underhanded tactics, insults and lies.  Everything  that western political campaigns seem to have these days.

Final  Comment

I couldn't leave this without stating the obvious - that airports are crazy these days and flights between  Toronto and  Tel-Aviv are completely full, incredibly pricey and more  disorganized than ever.  Airport waiting  times are very long.  It can take 2-3 hours to get through all of the security and check-in procedures to leave Israel.  Arriving in Israel is fairly efficient  generally, in contrast to arriving in Toronto  these days, which is a complete disaster.  

With El Al scheduled to discontinue its Canadian service at the end of October, 2022, prices  will  undoubtedly rise sharply, which is unfortunate.  I can't  say that I have been a loyal  supporter of El Al, since the benefits of  flying Air Canada were overwhelmingly superior.  But I know that many Israelis prefer to fly El Al since it "feels like  home."  They will be very disappointed that this option is no longer available to and from Toronto.

I suppose,  soon enough, you will be able to fly Saudi Arabian Airlines to Tel-Aviv from Toronto.  After all, you can already fly  Emirates, though I haven't tried it yet.  However, you might want to get  here, Israel will be happy to welcome you.

And with that I will sign off on this one and  wish you  all the best until next time.


  


Monday, June 20, 2022

Breaking News - Another Israeli Election

Shavua Tov (Happy New Week), Happy Juneteenth (if that's the right greeting) and welcome to summer (just about).  I have decided to put together this quick blog with some breaking news and a few other bits....As always, I welcome comments and invite discussion.  And there is certainly lots to discuss... 

Israel Politics

After one year of governing in Israel with a diverse, rag-tag coalition, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett held a press conference today with his coalition partner and alternate Prime Minister - Yair Lapid. At the press conference, Bennett announced that he had done everything he could to keep the government together but they had reached an insurmountable roadblock and would have to dissolve the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament) and call an election.  If the dissolution proceeds, as expected, the election is likely to fall at the end of October.

As might be expected, Bennett reviewed what he maintained were the successes of his government.  His list included an improving Israeli economy, the notion of working together with political opponents for the benefit of the country,  and advances in a number of different areas.  He praised his coalition partners and thanked them for serving in the government, particularly those who had served as cabinet ministers.  Bennett also indicated that he would honour the coalition agreement and transfer power to Yair Lapid - who will become the interim Prime Minister of Israel - assuming the transfer can be put through the Knesset.  If this goes through - Lapid will become a caretaker, lame duck Prime Minister of Israel, charged with steering the country through to the next election - and post-election until a new government can be formed.

Bennett himself faces a very uncertain future.  His fellow Yamina party members have largely abandoned him and commentators have speculated that this is the end of his party.  Bennett still intends to remain in politics but it is unclear at this point - which party he will represent.  It is also unclear where his fellow Yamina members will go.  Some might join Likud - perhaps with enticement from Netanyahu.  Others might move further to the right and join the Ben-Gvir/Smotrich party.  If Yamina were to run in its present form, it seems unlikely that it could even make it past the electoral threshold.

Lapid also spoke at the press conference - but his talk was quite abbreviated.  He thanked Bennett and told him that he really believed that Bennett was acting for the good of the country over the course of the coalition agreement - even though he and Bennett have their disagreements.  He thanked Bennett for their friendship and, yes, expressed his love and respect for Bennett.  It was somewhat emotional.  Lapid then stated that there are still many pressing issues to address - and time will not stop and wait for the election or the post election results.  He intends to roll up his leaves and get to work even though he will face significant hurdles in trying to do so.  

We may still see some political wrangling between now and a vote to dissolve the knesset.  There may be a way for the opposition to prevent Lapid from taking power.  We might even see Netanyahu make an effort to put together a 61 seat government.  This does not seem likely but anything is possible.  I would imagine that the dissolution bill will be passed within the next week to ten days though I am not totally clear on what is actually going to happen after that.

It is too early to speculate on what may happen in the next election.  There is a reasonable possibility that the "right" bloc, led by Netanyahu, will amass a sufficient number of votes to build a coalition and take back power.  

But nothing in Israel is a certainty.  There may well be a sizeable number of Israelis who view this coalition government as having offered a refreshing change - and a harbinger of new types of government in Israel.  If Netanyahu and his "bloc" cannot put together 61 seats - we may well see another type of coalition government - even if it is not led by Bennett.  Suitors for the role are likely to include Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz.  There may well be others.  

Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke shortly after the Bennett-Lapid press conference.  He was smug, arrogant, and completely dismissive of the current government.  He called it a failed government and said that from talking to "people in the streets," he is well aware that Israelis can't wait to have him and his government back in power.  I would imagine that there are certainly some segments in Israeli society who would agree with him but many who would not.  My sense from this press conference was that Netanyahu is living in a bit of an alternate universe - but I would not rule out the possibility that he may still be able to win another election.  Of course he was also using the opportunity to try and "spin" things as favourably as possible.  We will have to wait to see what the Israeli public really thinks.

Interestingly, Netanyahu stated more than once that the current government is a government held together and bolstered by "terror supporters"  (he was referring to the Arab Ra'am party led by Monsour Abbas) and he stated, definitively, that he would not form a government supported by Abbas (who has currently been an active member of the current governing coalition).  Netanyahu's numbers may not quite add up - and he may well come to visit Mr. Abbas with his hat in his hand, looking for some support down the road.

In any event, the next few months promise to be interesting political theatre in Israel.  I expect lots of suprises, lots of drama, lots of vitriol and some very loud discourse.  Then again, how is that different from any other electoral campaign in Israel?

Travel Update

Airports in both Canada (at least Toronto) and Tel-Aviv are incredibly crowded these days.  For leaving Israel, airlines are requesting that passengers arrive four hours before their flights.  I left Israel on Sunday June 12th and it took more than two hours to get through the first part of Israeli security.  Of course there are still three other security/exit stations to leave Israel  - so it probably took close to three hours to get through everything.  Don't worry - I still had a bit of time to visit the duty free shop but it was a long, frustrating and time-consuming experience.

Toronto Pearson Airport has been using a "metering" system for arrivals. Essentially, they keep you in the plane, away from a gate, for an extended period of time.  Then they announce that only passengers with "connecting flights" will be able to leave.  Naturally, the plane itself becomes quite chaotic.  People without connecting flights get up and take all of their luggage to the front of the plane, blocking the aisles and pushing forward to try and get off the plane first.  Our arrival in Toronto was quite a zoo.

Once we were out of the plane, the line up was not that terrible - especially for those with a Nexus pass.  And there were no real delays at the baggage carousel.

I have also left Toronto Pearson airport recently.  With Air Canada status, the line ups are not too bad - but for everyone else, it looks fairly chaotic.  Going to the U.S. from the Toronto  Airport is incredibly crowded, with extensive line-ups, fewer than normal staff at security and at customs - and lots of overstressed travellers.  Leaving for Israel from Toronto (or any other international destination) is probably a bit easier since you don't have to pass through customs on your way out as you do for U.S. travel.

TV Update

We recently watched the second season of Tehran.  The final episode was released this past Thursday night.  The first season featured a largely unknown cast but there were some terrific actors.  This second season was filmed in cooperation with Apple TV and brought in Glenn Close as an Israeli spy, operating in Tehran, to supplement the cast from the first season. I thought the second season was somewhat better than the first - and, overall, was quite rivetting.  For now, I think it can only be watched on AppleTV.  If you speak hebrew, you can watch it on sdarot.buzz, an Israeli streaming channel or on Israel's Channel 11.  Not sure if there will be a third season, but if so, I will look forward to it.  I understand that filming is also in progress for Fauda's fourth season.  Lots of recent Israeli programming to watch and much of it is very good.

With hockey playoffs just about over, football season still three months away and few other sporting events that really grab my attention, I may have to find a few other series to watch.  I welcome recommendations.  I don't mean to disrespect the Blue Jays, by the way. They have a very exciting team this year but I can't really see watching 162 games a year.  I will probably watch more baseball as it gets closer to the playoffs.

In any event, it is the summer and I hope to make it to the beach, the lake or some other water activities.  So I probably don't need to watch too much TV anyways.  Would definitely rather go for a swim.  Or visit a winery....

Wrap Up

We are looking forward to having some visitors over the summer, some who have been to Israel several times and some who are coming for their first time.  Although it is usually very hot in July and August (even intolerably hot), there is lots to do.  When we are not out and about, we put our faith in our air conditioning units - and the hope that things cool down somewhat in the evenings.  Sometimes it cools off considerably, sometimes it doesn't. For those who are thinking of visiting Israel, it is better, from a weather perspective, to come in March/April and October/November - maybe even September - if you have a choice.  Many people don't - and find that their available dates are dictated by school and work schedules.  This summer, in particular, Israel is expecting a very large number of tourists.  The planes are full (and tickets are very expensive).  Hotel prices are also very high.  

The Israel Museum has still not announced dates for the annual Jerusalem Wine Festival (which is a wonderful event). It is probably going to take place in August this year.  There are hundreds of scheduled concerts across the country - so many musicians trying to make up for the loss of the past two years of live entertainment. 

So even though it is quite hot in the summer - there is so much to see and do in Israel that pretty much any time of year is a good time.  

Wishing everyone a wonderful summer.  Not sure how many blogs I will put together in the coming months but I am sure that I will write a few as the election draws closer.







Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Yom Hazikaron, Yom Haatzmaut 2022 and the Movie "My Tree"

The period of about three weeks from Pesach (Passover) to Yom Ha'atzmaut (Israel Independence Day) is densely packed with commemorations and celebrations.  We start with the holiday of Passover, known as the "time of our freedom."  Shortly after that, Israel commemorates Yom Hashoah v'Hagvurah - the day of Remembrance of the Holocaust and Bravery.

One week later, Israeli Remembrance Day, Yom Hazikaron, a day of remembrance for fallen soldiers, police and other security officials and victims of terror - in Israel and outside of Israel - is commemorated and then one day later it is Israeli Independence Day.  These are powerful and emotional days filled with compelling public ceremonies, observances and rituals.

I have written about some of this in the past so I am not going to rehash what I have previously written.  But I thought I would highlight a few things.  

The combination of  Yom Hashoah, Yom Hazikaron and Yom Ha'atzmaut all emphasize the importance of Israel - the tremendous price that Jews have paid before they had a state - and then to establish  and maintain the State, the need for the state as the defender of the Jewish people around the world, and the fragility and preciousness of the state along with its resilience.

On Yom Hashoah (You can watch this year's ceremony here), six Holocaust survivors are called up to light memorial torches.  Their stories are told before they come up.  Their numbers are dwindling each year.  One survivor, scheduled to light a torch, died this year one week before the ceremony.  All of Israel's dignitaries are in attendance - the President, the Prime Minister, the Supreme Court Justices.  And in between, there are powerful musical performances.  In most years, there is a common theme.  The Jewish community suffered devastating, murderous losses in Europe at the hands of the Nazis and their collaborators.  If only Israel had been in existence in 1939, perhaps it could have helped, it could have saved lives, it could have  prevented so much death.  And, of course, from the Israeli viewpoint, it is only a strong Israel that can genuinely fulfil the promise of "never again" for the Jewish people.

One week later, Israel commemorates the loss of more than 24,000 soldiers and security personnel killed since the establishment of the State and the loss of thousands of victims of terrorism in Israel and abroad.  Once  again, there is a torch lighting ceremony (shown here) before the same dignitaries along with bereaved  families who have lossed loved ones.  There are powerful musical peformances (Here and Here) and not a dry eye among the attendees.  The following day, there are ceremonies at cemeteries across Israel as loved ones are remembered and missed.

As the sun sets and Yom Hazikaron ends, the  sadness turns to joy and Israeli Independence Day is ushered in - this year marking Israel's 74th birthday.

Once again, there is a torch lighting ceremony - this time featuring Israelis who have reached tremendous heights with their accomplishments - in different walks of life.  Yom Haatzmaut ceremonies have honoured scientists, artists, musicians, health care workers, athletes, leaders of charitable organizatons and so many others.  There are dance peformances, military fly-overs, fireworks, musical performances and, of course, speeches.  Across the country, there are celebrations with musical peformances, carnival-like atmospheres and raucous, exuberent crowds - thrilled to celebrate Israel's accomplishments over its first 74 years.

One of my personal highlights is a program that Israeli singer Idan Reichel has run for the past few years.  He has asked Israeli soldiers - most of whom are in the army as part of mandatory conscription - to send him recordings of themselves singing.  He and his crew receive hundreds of entries.  They then select 10 of these young soldiers.  Reichel and his crew show up at each soldier's base and suprise them somehow - with an invitation to sing at the national Independence Day performance.  The 10 soldiers spend some time preparing with Reichel and then perform at the national  ceremony with their family and friends in attendance.   At the end of the evening, Reichel picks one lucky winner to co-write a new song with him  to be recorded and released.  The whole event mixes so many key aspects of Israel. Reichel meets with and selects Israelis from all across the country - religious and non-religious, from a wide range of ethnic backgrounds - men and women, from the north and the south, the east and the west, all of whom are serving in the IDF, defending the country.  The singers are all emotional, excited, very talented and very proud.  

Finally, after watching the solemn commorations of Yom Hashoah and Yom Hazikaron, one week apart and then thoroughly enjoying the gleeful and exciting Yom Haatzmaut celebrations, I noted that I had received an email earlier in the day "warning" me about the movie "My Tree" that is now being shown on CBC Gem as part  of "Jewish Heritage" week.  I decided that  I should watch the film, which was released in 2021 by Toronto based Jason Sherman.

Sherman has an attractive and easy going style in his narrative.  He seems personable enough and sincere in his "quest" to look into the story behind the planting of a tree in his name at the time of his bar-mitzvah many years ago - coincidentally - at the shul that I am still involved in when I am in Toronto.

But his seemingly "curious" nature is somewhat of a cover for a manipulative and unbalanced hatchet job on the Jewish National Fund ("JNF" or Keren Kayemet L'Yisrael - KKL), and by extension, Israel.  At the outset, Mr. Sherman mocks his Jewish heritage by poking fun at his bar-mitzvah ceremony, where he can't even bring himself to wear a Kippah standing in the Synagogue's main sanctuary, with his film crew, and reading some prayers.  After some coaxing from the Synagogue's executive director, he reluctantly agrees to cover his head.  It is evident that he has gone back to his bar mitzvah shul to mock it.  He doesn't meet with the Rabbi of the shul  or mention that he has tried to do so.  The current Rabbi would be too compelling and wouldn't fit with the theme of this "documentary."

Sherman then sets out on a journey to Israel to look for the tree that was planted in his name at the time of his bar mitzvah in the 1970s.  At the outset, Sherman gives his abbreviated version of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  For example, he notes that in 1948 "war broke out," as if it were a rain storm suddenly beginning.  No mention of the fact that all of Israel's surrounding neighbours attacked Israel - and certainly no mention of what happened with all of the Palestinian land that was held by Jordan from 1948 to 1967.  Or the Jewish towns and villages that were wiped out by the Arab armies during that war.  In fact, Sherman refers to the founding of  Israel as the "Nakhba," - using the Palestinian term for the great disaster.

Along the way, Sherman cites such "luminaries" as Noam Chomsky, Ilan Pappe, and Edward Said, all known Israel bashers.  And frankly, I woudn't even have a great problem with that if he also cited or interviewed or spoke with some historians, politicians, scholars etc., who might give an opposing view.  He could interview them, argue with them and raise his concerns.  There is no shortage of people who would have thoughtful responses to some of what Sherman raises.  

But there is no opposing view because this is not an objective documentary.  It is essentially a propaganda film that describes Israel as an illegitimate war-crime state.  The concluding part  of My Tree longs for the day (at the end of the movie) where Israel will be replaced by a one-state solution. Sherman refers to himself  as having been complicit in "war crimes" because his family planted a tree for his bar mitzvah by contributing money to the JNF.   

Like any decent prograganda film on this topic, disguised as a documentary, the movie certainly includes some truths, cites some historical injustices  and raises awareness of important issues.  I don't mean to downplay the genuine injustices that many Palestinians have faced including those who lived in Arab towns that were overrun by the Israeli army in 1967.  But there is no context at all.  The wars that Israel has fought have been existential and that has included a battle over land in many cases.

Sherman mocks the notion that Jews  had a presence in the Land of Israel historically, for thousands of years or that there is any reality to the historical connection that  the Jewish people have to the country.  He portrays Israel as a settler-colonialist state, rather than a movement to reclaim an indigenous homeland.  He disregards legitimate land purchases, settlement  and nation building on the the part of Jewish immigrants starting in the 1880s. Of course there is no mention, whatsoever, of any role  the Palestinians might have played in the whole historical narrative and the hostilities.  No mention of how the wars started, no discussion of terrorism, pre-1948 massacres, or any other parts of the historical record that might not fit with Sherman's thesis. 

Now there is a great deal of controversy over the dichotomy and the opposing views of Israel - but one could certainly explore these issues and give them context - even if ultimately preferring the anti-Israel side of the narrative,  as Sherman is inclined to do.  Because of this lack of context or balance, it is no wonder that the film has been presented at Palestinian film festivals.  It is probably quite popular among the likes of Peter Beinart, Sid Ryan, Roger Waters, JVS (Jewish Voices for Peace), the BDS movement and other groups and individuals that are opposed to Israel and its policies - or reject Israel's existense outright as a Jewish State.

By way of an example, Sherman wanted to discuss these issues with a Rabbi in Toronto.  Apparently, the only Rabbi in Toronto who he  could  find to speak to him was a rabbi from the Danforth Jewish Circle that meets in a church.  To her credit, I thought Rabbi Miriam Margles did a fairly decent job answering some of the points raised by Sherman.  But would it be too problematic to try to meet with some other rabbis - perhaps the rabbi of the same shul that he went back to when asking about his bar mitzvah?  Or perhaps other Orthodox, Conservative, Reform or Chabad rabbis?  Again, I find it hard to believe that no one would speak with him.  More likely, he didn't want to hear or record what they might say because it woudn't fit his narrative.

Ultimately, the juxtoposition between the celebrations in Israel,  and this type of movie made by an unaffiliated Torontonian, who happens to be Jewish, highlights the growing chasm between Israel and the diaspora.  Israel is now home to more  than  half of the world's Jewish population and that population is rapidly increasing.   On the other hand, the Jewish communities in  Canada  and the U.S. as well as other countries around the world are shrinking due to assimilation, intermarriage and general apathy.  Further, according to some recent articles, the level of support among young Jews in the U.S. and Canada - for Israel - has also been dropping.  This is disappointing but not surprising.

Last night, in Toronto, I attended at a Ma'ariv  service at the same shul where Mr. Sherman was doing some of his filming.  I was joining a family member to commemorate a Yahrtzeit.  The shul was sparsely attended.  But the more  troubling point is that it was Erev Yom Hazikaron, Remembrance Day.  There was no shul programming scheduled, no special prayers, no serious commemoration of this solemn day.   In fact, the shul was having a "Town Hall Meeting" - of all days - on Yom Hazikaron.  And that was, to me, another reflection of this growing gap between the two communities.

To end on a positive note, I can mention that, despite these trends, the number of Birthright groups travelling to Israel remains significant.  Thousands of young Jews from around the world  are taking a 10 day trip to Israel to see the country first hand, and hopefully come away with some sense of affinity, belonging, and pride for the country that is now home to such a large percentage of the world's Jewish population.  And some of them may well wind up on a bus with one of our family members - who is now a full licensed Israeli  tour guide.

Wishing everyone a Chag Sameach on Israel's 74th birthday and hoping that the coming years will bring peace, stable government, continued development in a wide range of areas, more great music and closer relationships with Jews around  the world, including, perhaps, those like Mr. Sherman, who might come back for another visit.  This second time around, aside from looking for his tree, he can also see his Temple ruins, his ancient synagogues, the burial sites of his ancestors and so many other important Jewish historical sites that just didn't seem relevant to the statement he was trying to make  - including those particularly dear to my heart - like the ancient wineries, wine storage facilities and wine presses that were one of the largest sources of economic activity in the Temple years, during the first and second Kingdoms of the Jewish people in Ancient Israel.