LSAT Style Israel Election Puzzle 2021 and Other News

The Israeli election will be held on March 23, 2021.  To get you ready for the election, I have come up with an LSAT  style problem that you could work on starting next week.  This problem may be so complex, depending on actual results, that I am giving you a head start so that you can begin working on it even before the election results are formally announced.

Just a refresher about the problem style.  To get into law school, you have to write the LSAT.   One of the sections is a series of logic questions.  Something like this:

There are 8 people at a table, A through H.  

A hates B and C and would prefer to sit near F.

D will only sit between B and E and or between A and G.

C must sit directly across from E.

F and G must sit at least two seats apart from each other.

The table is a rectangle with 3 seats on each side and 1 on each end.

Which of the following statements is true?  (I'm not going to list all the statements). (Eg. F can sit next to E, G must eat Sushi, B cannot sit across from H, etc., True or False...)

I did reasonably well on the LSAT but that was a few years  ago.  Okay, many years ago...

Here is the more complicated 2021 Israeli election version....

The Israeli Knesset has 120 seats and you need a combination of at least 61 elected Knesset members to form a government.

A.   The Sephardi Ultra-Religious Shas party (Estimated to get 7 or 8) will only agree to a government formed by Likud (Bibi - estimated at 28-32).  They will absolutely not agree to go with Yesh Atid (Lapid)(Estimated at 18-22) or Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) (Estimated at 7-8);

B.  The right wing New Hope party (Saar) (Estimated at between 7 and 9) will absolutely not go with Likud.  However, they will go with just about anyone else other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

C.  The right wing secularist party Yisrael Beitenu will not go with either of the two Ultra-Religious parties, Shas or United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 7-8) but will go with just about any other parties, other than the Arab parties (or maybe they will).

D.  The centrist Yesh Atid (Lapid) will go with any other parties other than Likud and the far right Religious Zionist Party (Ben-Gvir) (Estimated at 4-5 if they make it in to the Knesset).  

E. The left wing Labour Party (Michaeli) (Estimated at 5-7) and left wing secularist Meretz (Horowitz) (Estimated at 4-5 if they pass) will not go with Likud or the Religious Zionist party.  They will recommend Lapid and they might agree to go with Yamina (Bennett) (Estimated at 9 to 12) or New Hope.

F. The far right wing Yamina party will not go with Meretz or the two Arab parties (estimated at 9 to 13 and 4-5 respectively if the 4-5 group passes).  Yamina will not agree to join a government led by Yesh Atid.  They don't rule out joining a government  led by New Hope or Likud.  They don't rule out "allowing" Yesh Atid to join a government that they  lead.

G. The extreme right wing Religious Zionist Party will recommend Likud and wants to join a Likud-led government.  Bibi says they can be in the government but not get any cabinet posts.  Lapid, Meretz, Labour, and the Arab Parties have ruled out joining a government with the Religious Zionist Party.  The Religious Zionist Party says that it will not join any government that is supported by the Arab Parties.

H. The Ultra-Religious, Ashkenazi, United Torah Judaism (Estimated at 6-8) will recommend Likud.  They might join New Hope, Yamina or even Yesh Atid with the right offer.  

I. The centrist Blue and White Party (Ganz) (estimated at 4-5 if they pass the threshold) say they will not go with Likud again....and that they will recommend Yesh Atid to form the government.  But for the right price, they might change their minds.  Though they swear they  won't.

J.  The Arab parties are unlikely to join any potential coalition formally.  However, they might support a government explicitly or tacitly from the outside or perhaps this could be one of the first times that they actually join the government.  As listed above, some of the parties including Yamina and Religious  Zionists insist that they will not join a government that is in any way reliant on the support of the Arab parties.

Starting on Tuesday night or early Wednesday next week, you can take all of this and try to figure out how to come up with a governing coalition agreement that has at least 61 members.  You have four weeks though you can apply for an extension of three more weeks.  You can offer any combination of cabinet posts, legislative promises, cash for constituents, future government posts and, pretty much any other enticements that  you think of to get the different parties to change their positions on who they are willing to sit with.  Remember, you don't necessarily have to commit  your promises to writing and, even if you do, you certainly don't have to honour them all later.

Ready...Go!.

In other news, an anonymous group installed a statute of Bibi in central Tel-Aviv, looking like Golem from Lord of the Rings....Some have suggested it is a picture of Bibi in a prison cell. 

No one has claimed credit and the statute was removed, fairly quickly.  It is not the first time that protest artists have unveiled statues of Bibi.   I'm not going to list all of the different interpretations that have been suggested of this particular sculpture.

In other news, restaurants across Israel are opened for business, the infection rate is rapidly declining, the rate of people becoming seriously ill is rapidly declining and the vast majority of new cases, including those who have become seriously ill, are people who were not vaccinated.  Things are looking very promising as the vaccine rollout continues.  This may translate to a very optimistic outlook for North America and other parts of the world that are properly administering the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  Not sure that these results  will apply to people innoculated with the other available vaccines or in cases where governments administer vaccines without following the proper timelines for doing so.

Pesach is 10 days away.  It is unusual this year with a Saturday night start which makes things that much more difficult for people who observe the holiday.  All of the dishes will need to be changed over one day early on Friday - and bread eating becomes an issue on Friday night and Saturday morning.  Although it is permissible, it gets a bit tricky where the hametz (leavened products) have already been removed from the house and symbolically burned.  I suppose we can eat some bread on the balcony just before the meal....

As you know, Passover is observed differently in Israel - only one Seder instead of two.  As of now, it looks like many people are planning to have large family gatherings, perhaps even "pre-Covid" size  and that plan is likely to be blessed by Bibi himself, along, of course, with his ultra-religious coalition partners, unless infection rates start increasing rapidly between now and next week.

I couldn't resist mentioning that one of the parties running in this election, the Shas party, has been using this lovely slogan "Choose God, Vote for the Shas Party."  They have also been proclaiming that it is a "Mitzvah" (a good deed, according to Jewish law) to vote for Shas.  The accompanying picture for these campaign slogans is one of the  former Rabbis and inspiration for Shas, Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph who died in 2013.  In Israel, we are used to seeing pictures of the deceased Lubavitch Rebbe, Schneerson, with the slogan "Long Live the Messiah," plastered on buses and buildings.  But Shas seems to have outdone the Lubavitch and actually linked Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph to God rather than to a mere messiah.  

I guess we will see soon enough if the outstretched hand of the Lord will ensure that Shas and Bibi are able to form a government together and bless them all with "Get Out of Jail Free" cards so that they don't have to waste valuable time facing ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would indeed be ironic if the Lord were to bless the secular parties instead of the Ultra-Orthodox after such earnest supplications, but I guess His plan will only be revealed in the coming weeks, maybe months.  Either way, it is worth remembering that Pesach is the "Holiday of Freedom,"  which in this case could mean freedom for Bibi or alternatively, freedom for Israel from Bibi.  Israeli voters, observant and non-observant, believers and non-believers, Jewish and non-Jewish, will soon decide.  

I will try to write one or two more  blogs over the next week or so with all of the exciting election news.  Wishing  everyone the best of health and all the best in preparing for Pesach or other upcoming holidays that you may be celebrating.

Pre-Passover Blog - Election Analysis and Vaccine Update

 

This picture was taken earlier this week.  Just after Purim ended, the Matzahs arrived - signalling the pending arrival of Passover (Pesach).  Stores here don't seem to go as crazy as the stores in Toronto with Kosher sections.  They don't cover the shelves with paper or otherwise close off the "Kosher  for Passover " areas hermetically.  But they do carry quite a variety of products.  And just as Pesach arrives, they actually seal off all of the  non-Pesach products so you can't even buy them for 7 days unless you go to an Arab area or a part of Israel in which the stores are willing to take their chances with law enforcement.  It doesn't really affect us since we observe the holiday but some people go out of their way during  Pesach to drive to a nearby Arab down and have some pita and humus.  For the most part, the only "pita" you can get in many parts of Israel during Pesach is made with potato flour (sometimes corn flour for the kitnyot eaters) and it may not be particularly tasty.

This year, as Pesach is about to arrive, we have quite a bit going on in Israel.  As you may know, we have an election scheduled for March 23, 2021.  It will be the fourth election in the past 3 years and, if the polls are to be believed, it is unlikely to result in a stable government.  So we may face a fifth election soon enough.

Election News and Analysis

There are 14 parties runnning for election in the 120-seat Israeli Knesset.  Israel has a proportional election system in which everyone simply votes for the party of their choice.  There are no ridings, districts or other divisions of the country.  The cut-off percentage for making it into the  Knesset is 3.5%, which ensures that a party has 4 seats if it makes it into the Knesset.  If a party that is running winds up with less than that, their votes are simply allocated on a percentage basis to the parties that made it in.

If you would like to follow along with all of the latest polls, this Wikipedia link shows the latest poll results.  According to most of the latest polls, 13 parties are likely to make it into the Knesset.   The question is - what happens the day after the election with such a wide variety of parties?

At  this point in time, Prime Minister Netanyahu ("Bibi") and his Likud party are  the clear front-runners with most polls estimating that they will get between 28 and 32 seats.  After that, the fun begins.  To form a government, the party must come up with a coalition of at least 61 seats to have the confidence of the Knesset.  

Bibi can count on the support of both of Israel's ultra-religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism.  Both parties have pledged their eternal loyalty to Bibi in exchange for promises to fund yeshivas, support the ultra-religious establishment and ensure that the ultra-religious have key cabinet portfolios.  Shas has been running campaign adds that compare Bibi to the Messiah and claim that a vote for Shas is a vote for the Kadosh Baruch Hu (a vote for God).  These two parties combined are likely to get between 14 and 16 seats.  So that means that Bibi has between 42 and 48, depending on how things go.

After that, things get a bit murky.  There is a new, merged, far-right national religious party running, the Religious Zonist party ("RZ").  They are running close to the cut-off line in most polls but if they make it into the Knesset, they could wind up with 4 or 5 seats and they will happily support a Likud government.

This means that Bibi  could now be at between 42 and 53, depending on whether the RZ party makes it in and the general results.  Here, the options become challenging but not insurmountable.

One party that  is polling at between 10 and 13 seats is the "Yemina" ("Right") party, led by Naftali Bennett (a fellow Ra'anana resident).  (Though he lives on the "other side of the tracks," having made his fortune by selling shares of a successful high-tech company).  Bennett has stated that he would like to replace Bibi and become the Prime Minister.  At the same time, his attacks on Netanyahu have not been particularly vociferous.  His party is self-described as a solid right wing party - nationalist, pro-religious, free-market and in favour of signficant changes to the judicial system in Israel to limit the power of the Israeli Supreme Court. For the most part, his party is a natural ally of the Likud party and is likely to join Likud under the right conditions.

This means that with all of the above, Likud could be at between 52 and 66.  If they are over 61, they will almost certainly form a government under  Netanyahu's leadership.  Such a government would be made up of Likud, Yamina, RZ and the two ultra-religious parties.  It would be one of the most right wing governments in Israel's history.  It is likely  that this  government would agree to pass legislation granting Bibi immunity from his ongoing criminal proceedings.  It would also proceed with various right wing policies dealing with the Palestinians, issues of religion and state, limiting the power  of the courts to conduct judicial review  proceedings and  many other areas.  One commentator stated that this type  of government would put Israel somewhere between Hungary and Turkey - on a path towards fascism but not quite there.  Perhaps that anyalysis might be a bit extreme.  But from my perspective, this type of government would be very frightening.

If this collection of right  wing political parties winds up at between 52 and 59, things get really interesting.  They may be unresolvable and simply lead to another election.  But  again,  the actual numbers will be key.

If this "bloc," including Bennett winds up with 56 or less, they will have a very difficult time forming a  governmment. They would have to convince one of the other left or centre parties to  join the bloc, even though the other  parties have all vowed that they would not do so.  Bibi's options here would include convincing a 4 or 5 seat Blue and White party to join him, the "New Hope Party" which is made up of  former Likud members or, perhaps the Labour party.  Bibi has a formidable knack for working these situations out.  He would  play the different  parties against  each other and do whatever it takes  to get to 61.  Ironically,  he may  even  find a way to rely on a small 4 or 5 seat Arab party "Ra'am" that could make it in to the Knesset.  It is hard to imagine that  such a hard-core, far right government would agree to be beholden to a small anti-Zionist Arab party but Bibi is definitely willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power.

If he is able to do this and  create a coalition but  with parties  other than the "right-wing" parties, he may not be able to get his immunity bill passed.  And the other parties might temper the right wing agenda.   So this may be a slightly better alternative than the first scenario.  

Given the current polls one of these two scenarios seems to be the most likely outcome of the coming election.

The chance of the "anti-Bibi" parties  forming a government looks slim.  The Yesh Atid party is the current leader of this bloc and is running at between 18 and 21 seats.  They could, perhaps, count on the New  Hope party to join them, which could  add 9 to 12.  Add in the Labour party (4-7), the Israel Our Home  Party (7-9).  That all adds up to between 38 and 49.  If the left wing Meretz party passes the threshold with 4 or even 5 seats, that could get this bloc to 53 or 54.  Maybe they could also add in Blue and White, if it passes the threshold, with 4 or 5 seats.  On the low side, all of this only adds up to 46 seats.   On the high side, it adds up to 57.   But some of these parties are competing against  each other for votes, so it is unlikely that the number  would be as high as 57.  

Assuming this  "left-centre bloc"  obtains between 50 and 55, there would be two possible scenarios for forming a government.  One would be to rely on the support of the Arab party - the "Joint List" as supporting the  government from the  outside or as actually joining the government.  It is not clear that all of these bloc members would agree to this arrangement. In particular, the New Hope party may not agree.  

The other possibility would be to convince the Yamina  party to join the group.  As discussed above, they are idealogically much more  comfortable with Bibi.  Bennett seems to feel that he can offer his party's  support  to this bloc in exchange for  an  agreement that  he becomes the Prime Minister.  But negotiations over policies in this scenario would be extremely complicated and in my view, close to impossible.  Alternatively, he could  agree to join  a Lapid-led government in exchange for getting some fairly senior posts for himself and his senior party members.  This all seems unlikely unless Bibi's numbers are low enough to convince Bennett that he has no choice.

Lastly, there is a distinct chance that the split will be close to 50-50  and  no one  will be able to form a government.  We will then face the prospect of several weeks, if not months, of negotaitions, all while Israel is led by another  interim caretaker government.  Unfortunately, this sounds like a distinct possibility.

To add to all of this, the election is just three days before Pesach.  Everything closes down in Israel for  Pesach.  We  may not even have all of the official results of the election by the start of the holiday.  Buckle up - we are in for a very turbulent  period.

Positive News - Vaccine  Effectivenesss

On the positive side, a large percentage of the Israeli population has now been vaccinated with both doses of the Pfizer vaccine.  The numbers of newly infected Israelis are dropping rapidly.  More importantly,  the numbers of people  who are  becoming seriously ill are also dropping.  Things have been opening up since Purim (Feb 25, 2021). Even after about two weeks  of many places opening up, the new infection rate has not skyrocketed as some predicted it might.

This past Sunday, Israel opened up restaurants.  Outdoor seating for those who have not been vaccinated  and indoor seating only for those who have a "green pass" to show that they have been jabbed.  Concert halls, sporting events, wedding halls and other event venues are all opening up for those who have a green pass.  I guess we will see over the next few weeks if the vaccine is as effective as it seems to be so far.

Bibi is putting  all of his eggs in the vaccine basket  for this political campaign.  If the rate of infection continues to dwindle, he will try to take credit for getting Israelis vaccinated ahead of most other countries and argue that this is something only he could have done.  Bibi will say that nothing else matters  - his corruption, the economic policies of the past year or two, the ultra-orthodox-secular tensions, and many other difficulties.  Instead, he will focus on two areas - one is the vaccines and the other is the peace-deal breakthroughs that Israel has had with the UAE, Bahrain and  Sudan.  If Israelis buy what Bibi is selling, he  could wind up at 35-40 seats which would allow  him to form a new government quite easily.  So far the polls suggest  that this has not happened but  we still have almost two weeks to go.

I will try to put together at least  one more blog just before the election and perhaps a few afterwards, in between getting ready for Pesach.

Wishing everyone the best of health!

Pre Purim Blog 2021 - Chag Purim Sameach

It is just a couple of days before Purim, so I thought it was time to squeeze in another blog.  I have written some blogs  in the past about celebrating Purim in Israel.  It is normally quite a raucous holiday since everyone is commanded to get drunk.  The streets are normally filled with "Adloyada" parades (adloyada translates to "until you are no longer aware...").  Normally people are wandering the streets in costumes, going to Purim parties, bringing each other gift baskets and,  in many cases, going to synagogue to hear the reading of Megillat Esther (the Book of Esther).  It is celebrated with particular abandon in Israel's high schools.  We have some of the photo evidence from past years.

This year, for the second consecutive time, Purim will be quite different.  Even though there is cause for optimism in Israel as the number of vaccinated Israelis has been increasing and the spread of the virus has been decreasing, there is still too much concern about the rampant virus to return to normalcy.  Perhaps by next Purim.  

So the first question is how people can hear the Megillah.  According to Jewish law, we are supposed to hear it live, in person,  read from an actual parchment scroll rather than a book.  Many synagogues are organizing outdoor readings, throughout the evening on Thursday night and Friday morning - so that people can come in smaller groups and hear it.

Others are of the opinion that hearing the scroll read by Zoom is halachically acceptable, as long as it is read from a parchment scroll.   I normally read chapter 8 - and sometimes 8-10 - in Synagogue.  This year, I guess we are going with the more lenient approach, so I will be reading on Zoom from an actual scroll as part of our shul's reading.  If you want the link for it - please let me know and I'll be happy to send it.  I think we will start at about 6:30 p.m. Israel time (11:30 a.m. EST) on Thursday Feb 24, 2021.  

My other project is to try and make hamentaschen (Haman's ears in Hebrew; Haman pockets in Yiddish) - which are triangular pastries filled with different fillings.  I would say that poppy seed, prune and  chocolate are the most common fillings, though there are many others.  I never really liked the poppy seed filling even though I love poppy seed  bagels.  I'm thinking about apricot, strawberry, dates and chocolate as four options.   Lemon is another idea since it would add some nice colour.  I guess I could add Kiwi as well and then I could have some green ones.  Sure it is easy enough just to go out and buy some - since every bakery in Israel is selling them now - but I would rather have some fun with this.  (We also prefer making our own latkes on Chanukah and our own blintzes on Shavuot).  We'll see how they come out.

We have had some very strange news stories in Israel over the past couple of weeks.

Firstly, an Israeli woman "accidentally" wandered into Syria.  Now how anyone accidentally wanders into Syria I have no idea.  There are Israeli military forces, Syrian military forces and even some UN forces throughout the area.  Much of the border is heavily guarded though I suppose there are some areas that aren't.   In any event, she was picked up by the Syrian forces and interrogated.  Israel and Syria then negotiated a deal through Putin, acting as an intermediary, whereby Israel would get her back, give up two Syrian shepherds that Israel was holding - and one additional bizarre piece.  Israel would agree to pay for $1M USD worth of Russian-made Sputnik-V Coronavirus vaccines - to be delivered to the Syrians.  Very strange deal.  Is Syria that strapped for cash that it had to get Israel to buy some Russian vaccines for it?  Or did Putin want to extract the money from Israel to exert a show of power over Netanyahu?  Or maybe he just wanted the chance to inject a bunch of Syrian leaders and military officials with Sputnik-V.  Netanyahu initially tried to keep the terms of the deal confidential but they leaked out.  So he held a press conference and talked about the deal he was able to negotiate with his friend Putin...The whole thing happened very quickly.  Curiously, this all just weeks before an Israeli election.  

We also had some snow in Israel.  Apparently, it snows, on average, about once every five years in Jerusalem.  The snow doesn't stick around for very long but people try and come from all over the country to see it - and if they can, to throw snowballs at each other.  The traffic getting in and out of Jerusalem was reportedly atrocious (we didn't go) and it all melted by the next day.  But people referred to it as a "Snow Holiday" and revelled in the excitement.  

Snow falls in Israel more regularly in the north, up in the Golan Heights, at Mount Hermon where there is even a  ski site.  Much of the snow for the site is artificial but it does tend to snow at least a  few times there most winters.

Needless to say, my North American family and friends are not nearly as excited when it snows.  For me, this may be my first winter ever of not seeing any snow.  I kind of miss it.  Winter in Israel has consisted of a handful of rainy, windy days, spread over the past few months.  The sunny days in between are wonderful and are sometimes beach-worthy, though the water is too cold for a swim.  We can use the barbecue year round. But if the rainy days were snowy days instead - I think that would be more fun.

You may have also heard that we had a major ecological disaster.  There was a huge oil spill somewhere off the cost of Israel last week.  This has caused massive damage.  A dead 17-meter baby fin whale washed up on the beach a few days ago - covered in oil - and many other sea creatures have perished or struggled to deal with these adverse conditions.  Thousands of Israelis have been volunteering to go to the beaches and help clean up tar from the coast but it could take years to clean up this mess.  As of now, it is unclear what happened, though the Times of Israel is reporting that it was a Greek owned vessel, the Minerva Helen.  The investigation continues.

The Israeli government is still in a state of flux, awaiting the next elections on March 23, 2021.  The government does not know how to handle the airport.  It is trying to keep out the "mutations."  For a while, this meant ensuring that everyone had to go to a state-selected isolation hotel on arrival.  But it leaked out that people were able to pay a fine voluntarily, of about 5,000 Sheqels ($2,000 Cdn) and then they could isolate at home, even though the government was no longer enforcing the home quarantines.  So the government decided to stop flights to Israel...with, of course, some exceptions.  At  first it was 2,000 passengers a day, that could arrive pursuant to a lottery system, based in part on urgent humanitarian considerations.  Now that number is supposedly being reduced to 200 per day, at least until March 6, 2021.  

Just in time for the Purim holiday, the Israeli government has reopened shopping malls, most schools and many other places that were closed up until now.  The government has also been rolling out a  "Green Passport."  People who have received both doses of the vaccine and waited a further ten days are able to get an official Green Passport through a government sponsored phone app or website.  This passport is tied to people's personal "National Identity" number so people can prove that they have been vaccinated.  The government would now like to open up restaurants, travel, gyms, pools, hotels, etc., only to those who have been vaccinated or can prove that they had Covid-19 and recovered.  (Instead of a Vaccination Certificate, you can get a Recovered Covid-19 Patient Certificate).

You probably know where this is going but some enterprising, tech-savvy Israeli entrepreneurs decided that for a mere 1,000 shq (about $400 Cdn), they could offer the public forged vaccination certificates.  News of these businesses quickly spread - to the point where a few of these enterprising criminals were on tv news this week (disguised of course) speaking about their wonderful business idea.  So the government has ramped up the penalties for those making or using fraudulent vaccination certificates and has also ramped up enforcement  efforts.  For the record, our certificates are real.  Whether or not they are actually effective, and how long they will last - well these are different questions.  

Some other countries are reviewing Israel's use of these certificates.  In Canada and the U.S., as well as many other countries, there are privacy considerations, issues concerning medical disclosure, and larger numbers of people who refuse to be coerced into getting the vaccine.  In  Israel, there is talk of rolling out legislation to make the vaccine mandatory in certain workplace sectors, including, for example, healthcare, restaurants, hotels and other public-engaging enterprises.  

There are certainly those in Israel who oppose the vaccine rollout and refuse to be vaccinated.  Numbers are especially high  among the Ultra-Orthodox, in some Arab towns and among other sectors.  But as the vaccine is rolled out and its efficacy becomes more and  more demonstrable, it will be less defensible for vaccine refusers to put themselves and others at risk.

I've kept the Israeli politics to a minimum this time as we still have a month  to go before the Israeli elections.  I will try to put together a pre-election primer a week or so before the election date and then some post-election reports.

Wishing everyone a Happy  Purim and, of course, the enjoyable thought that we are only a month away from the start of  Spring.    As the Hebrew song goes - "Great joy, Great joy, Spring has arrived and Passover (Pesach) is coming."  For all of those who change over their kitchens and host  Passover Seders, joy may not be the only emotion that comes up when we anticipate the arrival of the holiday.  

Perhaps I'm getting a bit ahead  of myself but Passover is only about 5 weeks away.  For now, still time to enjoy Purim and the remainder of winter.

Best of health to everyone.

February 2021: Covid Update, Election Preview and...

We didn't have Groundhog Day in Israel but we had "Tu Be'Shvat" about a week ago - where we marked the "New Year of the Trees."  People plant trees, eat a variety of dried fruits and, of course, have a bit of wine, to mark this minor holiday, which has made a major comeback in Jewish life since the founding of the State of  Israel in 1948.  Many synagogues and even some  secular organizations hold variants of a Tu B'Shvat Seder - a meal during which a variety of different fruits are eaten, a variety of wines are consumed and there is lots of discussion about the environment as well as other contemporary Israeli issues.  I actually attended two different Zoom events with participants from all over the  world.  A different way to celebrate than most years.   But a nice holiday concept.

So here we are in February 2021, and I thought I would cover a few different topics, which will be familiar to the readers of this blog.  I'll try and think of a few different things to add at the end.

Covid-19 Developments

This type of update could probably take up a whole blog but I will try to keep it relatively short.   As you may know, Israel has been vaccinating its residents at a blazing pace (compared to many other countries).  At its peak, the inoculation rate was up to about 200,000 shots a day.  For a population of 9.5 million, that is a very promising rate.

In fact, Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference about a month ago, where he promised Israelis that they would all be able to get  together with their extended families for Passover Seders in person this year.

In the  meantime, however, he warned that the virus was spreading at an alarming rate and the country needed a full shutdown.  So Israeli instituted a lockdown including a shutdown of the airport until the vaccination program could be closer to completion.

Weeks later, the virus is still spreading in Israel at an extraordinary rate.  54 people died over the weekend.  It is hard to project when things will really improve.  Experts are predicting that Netanyahu's Passover promise will not likely come to fruition and it may be a second consecutive year of Zoom Seders.  We will soon start to cook the virtual brisket.

According to some studies, the vaccinations are dramatically reducing the rate of infections for people over 60, of whom approximately 75% have been vaccinated.  But the virus is spreading rapidly among younger people, especially some of the mutated  versions of it.

On the good  news side, the Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv reported that it had developed a treatment that was successful in treating 29 of 31 seriously ill patients.  The hospital has requested approval to roll  out a wider test group and is confident that this relatively inexpensive treatment may be a very positive development.

At the same time, as the rate of vaccination continues to increase, Israel expects that the infection rate will begin to drop dramatically. It remains to be seen how long it will take to approach herd immunity or anything close to it.  Some commentators have estimated that it may not be until June or July 2021, even with the high rate of vaccination.

Despite all of this, including the high infection rate as of the time of writing, the government is reopening a  significant  part of the economy today - including many stores, hair salons, take out restaurants (up until now it was delivery only), and many schools.  There is an anticipation that there will be an increased infection rate over the coming weeks though the government is hoping that the vaccination rate will offset that.  I guess we may still wind up with a 4th closure.

Political Developments

As you might know, Israel has an election scheduled for March 23, 2021, the 4th election in the past 2 1/2 years.  This past Thursday was the deadline for the official entry of parties and  their respective slates.  A few newly formed  parties dropped out and there was also an amalgamation.  As of now, there are 14 different parties running.

The largest party is still Netanyahu's governing "Likud" party, a right wing nationalist party that is running at estimates of between 28 and 32 seats in the 120 seat Knesset.  There are also two ultra-orthodox parties that will almost certainly support  Netanyahu and they are estimated at having between 13 and 16 seats.  There is a newly merged ultra-right nationalist party running that is polling at between 0 and 5 seats.  It could be zero because the cut-off is 4 seats.  If a party  winds up with less than 3.5% of the popular vote, it does not make it into the Knesset and its votes are dispersed proportionately.  Netanyahu is hoping that this "Otzma-Noam" coalition makes it into the Knesset, since it would almost certainly support him.  So in this "Pro-Netanyahu" camp, early predictions put his potential coalition at between 41 and 53.  There are still more than 6 weeks to go, so a great deal can change.

Of course, Netanyahu would still need between 8 and 20 seats to put together a  coalition based on these numbers.  Where would that come from?  There are two more  right wing parties.

"Yamina" is a right wing party led by Naftali Bennett.  Yamina has been trying to outflank Netanyahu on the right.  It is crowded territory since it is also occupied by two other parties.  From interviews that I have seen, Yamina does not rule out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition, even though Bennett has Prime-Ministerial aspirations himself.  Nevertheless, they are predicted to get between 10 and 13 seats.  If they were to join Netanyahu, that could  get Likud to between 51 and 66.  Depending on actual numbers, that could be enough to form a very right wing government.

The other right wing party running is Gideon Saar's "New Hope" party which is a split-off from the  Likud.  This is the first election in which New Hope will be running.  Its leader has vowed not to enter a coalition with Netanyahu and has signed a live televised pledge to confirm his intentions.  But, of course, Israelis all remember the last election.  The previous  leader of the Labour party, Amir Peretz had vowed that he would  not join Netanyahu.  He had a large bushy  moustache that  was his trademark image.  He shaved  it as part of a "read my lips" promise not to join Netanyahu.  But shortly after the election, he joined in exchange for a cabinet position....He is now no longer the leader of the Labour party - or even a member.  

Saar is a very different candidate and has much more support  than Peretz had.  But ultimately, his agenda is very similar to Netanyahu's - much closer to Netanyahu than Peretz was.  He supports a continued expansion of the  settlements.  He is happy to enter a  coalition with the ultra-Orthodox.  He has, at times, defended  Netanyahu against some of Netanyahu's criminal charges.  In short, the only real difference is that he claims that is "not-corrupt" and is willing to put the country's needs ahead of his own.  Saarry but I have a hard time seeing it.  I believe that if Saar's only hope of being in the government is with a Netanyahu led coalition, he will make that decision even though he may negotiate a better deal than Gantz signed.  Saar's party is running at between 11 and 16 estimated seats, though I sense that their support could decrease between now and the election.

So at this  point, it looks like Netanyahu could have potential coalition members of between 62 and 80 assuming that he can leverage Yamina and Saar against each other, or get them both to join.  One of these options seems likely.

All that being said, the numbers can still change quite a bit.  These are, after all, only polls.

The leader of the opposition group is now Yair Lapid, still heading the Yesh Atid ("there is a Future") party.   Lapid's party seems to have some increasing momentum and is running at between 14 and 17 seats.   The party still has room to grow but there is a great deal of antagonism towards Lapid, especially among the Ultra-Orthodox and even many in the Orthodox sector.  For the last election, Lapid ran with Benny Gantz of the Blue and White Party.  Together, the two parties  received more than 30 seats.  But Gantz's half  of the party cut a deal with Netanyahu, joined the government and left the merged party.  As a result, the remaining part of Blue and White, led by Gantz, is polling at between 0 and 5 seats down from about 15.  They have been eviscerated since Gantz went against his whole raison d'etre and  joined Netanyahu.  Lapid, who refused to join Bibi and will continue to refuse, has kept his party's support.  He has also retained much more support from the public than Gantz.

The right wing secular party Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman is polling at 6-8 seats.  This party could  join Lapid or Saar but has said it will not join a Netanyahu  government.  It has held out  now for 3 elections so there is no reason to assume that they will fold.

Two left wing parties, Labour and Meretz are running at between 10 and 14 seats total.   Labour has had a resurgence. It has elected a woman as its  leader, the only Israeli party with a woman at the helm.  Merav Michaeli promptly held democratic elections for  the Labour slate and staked  out more traditional Labour-supported positions.  Under her leadership, the party has been growing and could rise much higher than its current polling numbers of 5 to 9 seats.  Labour will certainly not join Netanyahu but could  join Lapid or Saar if either have viable options to cobble a governing coalition together, provided  that  the Labour party can extract a reasonable  price for its support.

Meretz is a left wing secular party with focus on equality.  It has remained constant at about 5 seats and would also be willing to join Lapid or Saar  under the right conditions.  Meretz will definitely not join a Netanyahu led government.

Adding all of these numbers up, as of now, it appears that a centre-left coalition could cobble together between 35 and 40 seats.  If they were to add in the "New Hope Party" that could get them to between 50 and 55 seats.  Still short of being able to form a government. 

Rounding out the list of parties - we now have a fracture in the Arab parties.  In the last three elections, they ran as a coalition and received as many as 16 seats.  They have now splintered into two camps - one with estimates of 0-4 seats, the other with estimate of between 8 and 12.  The real issue is whether the Arab parties could  join the left-Centre coalition to string  together more than 61 and block Netanyahu.  Hard to say, though it is possible with the current  numbers.  It may all depend on what Saar wants to do with his New Hope.

Netanyahu has been courting the 4 seat Arab bloc and has met with its leader on several occasions.  He may even be hoping that these 4 will support his far right wing coalition bloc and enable him to get to 61 with Arab support.  This would be an incredibly cynical position to take since Netanyahu railed against the possibility of a left-centre coalition after the last election, which would have required the support of the  Arab parties.  Netanyahu called this type of government illegitimate, since it didn't have a "Jewish majority."  

There is one more centrist party called the "Economic Party" which is also running as an anti-Bibi party.  But they are currently not projected to pass the minimum threshold.  Led by three economics professors, they are confident that they will get between 5 and 8 seats and hope to focus on fixing the Israeli economy.  Hard to predict where they will wind up.

In short, after the next election, Saar may face the same choice that Benny Gantz had - either  make a deal with the Arab parties and somehow get to more than 61, make a deal with Netanyahu or call  yet another election.  Given that Saar is somewhat more to the right politically  than Gantz, it seems to me unlikely that he would enter a coalition deal with the Arab parties.  Much more likely that he would enter  an agreement with Netanyahu, despite his written pledge - if Netanyahu can get to 61 or more with his support.   

I have written more  than I planned about this, but it is all still premature.  We will have to watch polling numbers and see if anything changes between  now and March 23, 2021.  If the election were  held today, based on current numbers, I think Netanyahu would be  able to form another  government.  But things  could change drastically so the  next 7 weeks or so will be very interesting, especially if the economic party  and/or the Labour party can pick up seats at expense of Likud support.

Netanyahu's Trial

A short note to mention that Netanyahu's criminal trial is scheduled to resume tomorrow.  He is facing a variety of charges including bribery, corruption and breach of trust.  The trial has been delayed several times at Netanyahu's request for a variety of reasons - including the change of legal counsel, the political situation, Covid-19 and any number of other reasons.  His team has indicated that he will ask for another delay of the  trial  until after the  coming election. Of course, Netanyahu  is hoping that he can delay the matter until after the election and form a right wing coalition that will agree to a retroactive immunity bill.  There is a chance that a government made up of Likud, Yamina, Otzma and the two ultra religious parties would agree to this request but it is not clear at all, as of today, that this group alone could get to 61 seats and form a government.

If the trial does proceed, it will be a  fascinating legal and political event.  It is bound to be heated, dramatic and thoroughly entertaining - quite a spectacle.  From a legal perspective, I am very much looking forward to it. That being said, I doubt that it will ever take place - or at least, that it will not be completed.  In my view, it is likely to end  in one  of three ways - politically - with the retroactive immunity bill; legally with some type of plea-bargain deal; or hybrid politically/legally with a pre-emptive pardon from the President of Israel as part of a political/legal deal.  Based on the content of the various charges and Netanyahu's defences, it seems to me highly unlikely that he would take his chances with the defences he has put forward all the way through a trial.  But I guess we will find out soon enough - or perhaps over the next few years if Netanyahu's defence team can continue to drag things out as long as possible.

Other Notes

It is also Super Bowl Sunday today.  That means watching the game from 1:30 a.m. to about 5 a.m. Israel time.  I am up for it  - since it could be a fantastic game.   Two  very exciting teams.   Not too many people are interested in joining me at that time - and especially in the midst of  a pandemic - even though many of us have been vaccinated.  I'll be lucky if one or two other family members stay awake.  Also doubtful that there would be anywhere  to order a pizza from at that time - or that anyone would want to eat pizza at that time anyways, especially Israeli pizza, which for the most part is not particularly good.  In fairness, there are some decent places nearby that we have discovered during this lockdown year - so I guess pizza is still an option, as long as we order early and reheat it at half time.

We watched the Toronto Maple Leafs play last night.  That also started at about  2 a.m. Israel time.  The Leafs are off to an exciting start and have made some great line-up  changes.  They are  only playing other Canadian teams this year - so the competition level is not that high.    It is quite a challenge  to follow ice hockey here in Israel but every now and then I stay up to watch a game.  More so during the playoffs.

Overall, I haven't really been watching that much in the way of sports this year - other than  football, which will officially end today for a while.   I have no real interest in Israeli soccer or basketball - other than international competitions in which the Israeli national team is participating.  

Ben Gurion Airport is officially closed to most  travel until at least February 28th.  Air Canada has indicated that it is now only scheduling flights starting again on March 6, 2021.  These dates could still change.   But with the combination of new Canadian travel restrictions  and Israeli airport restrictions, it looks like those  of us who spend time in both Canada and Israel will be grounded for the foreseeable future.  

I wish everyone the best of health and will probably put together at least one more blog before the end of the month.

2021 - The Start of Some Changes in Israel?

Welcome to 2021.  In some places it is far from clear that we have turned a "new leaf" or left 2020 behind.  Given the recent political events in the U.S., the various Covid-19 mutations, the overburdened hospitals in so many places around the world, many people are wondering how to use the restart  button for this year.   Ctrl-alt-del doesn't seem to be working.

Here in Israel, we have begun the new Gregorian year with a mixture of political and health challenges, but also with a substantial measure of optimism.

On the one hand, the spread of Covid-19 has hit record highs, reaching up to 10,000 new cases a day last week and early this week.  Since the case load has been quite high for a while now, this is meant an increasingly high number of  Covid deaths, which tend to spike about 2 to 3 weeks after people are infected.  Numbers have reached 40-50 deaths a day, which is quite high for a country of only 9 million people.  

As a result of the growing numbers, Israel has instituted a third "shut down."  Once again, most workplaces are closed, other than those deemed essential.  Synagogues and other houses of worship are limited to 5 people inside with up to 10 outside.  Restaurants are offering delivery but are not supposed to be allowing "take-out" service.  Some places, like falafel shops, are allowing you to call from inside the drug store next door and ask to have your food delivered there.  This is apparently within the guidelines... Malls are closed, although the grocery stores, liquor stores, drug stores and  stores in a few other categories are still open.  

Government experts estimate that it may take 2-3 weeks to see the results of this lockdown.  This is the first lockdown in which Israel has now begun to insist that passengers leaving the country or arriving must be tested.  Up until now, surprisingly, this was not the case.

So we have roadblocks set up across the  country where police are stopping drivers and asking people where they are off to.  If your reason for travelling is not on the acceptable list, you can be fined 500 shekels (about $200 Cdn).  Permissible reasons for being out include grocery shopping (within a kilometre of your  home), drug store, getting vaccinated, getting tested for Covid-19, helping an elderly parent or grandparent and many others.  This has provided a great deal of fodder for Israeli comedy shows with parody skits of these interactions between police officers and people trying to come up with excuses quickly enough to avoid a fine.

Sometimes, as with so many other things, real life examples are sufficient comedic material themselves.  For example, a young Israeli was stopped earlier this week and told the officer that he was visiting his grandmother.  The officer asked for the name and plugged the name into a database.  Unfortunately, the grandmother had been dead for more than 2 years.  Nice try but that is definitely a fine!

Some people have decided to take their chances and disregard the rules entirely.  Police broke up a house party last week with more than 100 guests.  They were all fined 500 Shekels each and the owner was  fined 5,000.  But I understand that this is the case all around the world.  In fact, I would say that, for the most part, people in Israel are wearing masks when out, keeping distances in lines in supermarkets and  generally conscious of trying to follow the rules, or most of them.  Or some of them.

On the optimistic side, Israel has been a world leader in obtaining vaccines and rolling them out.  Israel has purchased significant quantities of vaccines from both Pfizer and Moderna, though far more from Pfizer.  Apparently, Israel offered to pay Pfizer significantly more per vaccine than the retail value, perhaps as much as three times the price.   Together with this agreement, Israel also signed a deal to provide Pfizer with information about the results of the vaccines, supposedly on a no-names basis. The exact terms of the deal have not been publicized.

The bottom line is that Israel began vaccinating its population en masse in late December.  For the most part, it has been quite orderly.  Vaccination stations were set up all around the country with big tents.  Appointments were available by phone, app, or web site.  At first, front line health  workers were vaccinated, followed by all those over 65 or people over 60 who were high risk.   Soon afterwards, the age was lowered to 60 officially (55 unofficially in many places).  

During this time period, Facebook and Whatsapp groups sprung up to help Israelis find vaccination sites.  There are a number of groups like "Vaccinations Between Friends" on  Whatsapp where Israelis who aren't in the current vaccination group can get information about which sites have "extras" on particular days so that they can show up and get in line.  Tens of thousands of Israelis have managed to get vaccinated this way.

The country's medical system quickly ramped up the vaccination rate to 150,000 to 200,000 a day.  According to recent estimates, more than 2 million people in Israel (including yours truly) have received their first dose.  Yesterday marked the start of the rollout of second doses.  At the same time, the qualifying age was lowered to 50, with talk that it will be reduced to 45 by early next week.

Many people who have received the second dose are reporting various symptoms that last for several hours or even  a day or two.  But for the most part, more serious reactions have been quite limited.  It remains to be  seen whether the rollout of the vaccine will dramatically change the pandemic situation here as expected and if so, how quickly.  The Israeli government has indicated that all citizens who wish to be vaccinated will be able to get the vaccine by the end of March (both doses).  Earlier this week, one Cabinet minister clarified that they meant everyone would have the first dose by the end of March and the second dose by late April, 2021.  

Israeli medical experts have reported that the vaccine provides significant protection starting at 14 days after the first dose, reducing the possibility of infection by more than 50%.  Both Pfizer and Moderna have estimated a success rate of more than 95% after the second dose.  I guess we will see shortly if these estimates are accurate.

The Israeli government has indicated that it is rolling out a plan to issue "Green Vaccination Photo ID cards" that look like drivers licences or health care cards - for all Israelis who have received the vaccination. These cards will be provided approximately 7 days after the second dose.  Israelis with these Green cards will be able to fly outside the country, return to Israel from a trip without isolation, go to concerts, sports events, restaurants etc.,.  I'm waiting to see whether other countries will recognize or  honour these cards - assuming that they are actually provided as planned.

So the optimistic news in Israel is that with such an aggressive rollout of the vaccine, Israel may be able to rid itself of the pandemic by May or June, assuming that the vaccine actually works.   If this all goes as  anticipated, it will be very good news for other countries as well and the world may really be able to turn the corner by mid to late 2021.  As long as Pfizer and Moderna can keep up with the demand for vaccines.  

Israeli Politics

I will save most of the Israeli election news for a later blog.  As you may know, we have an election scheduled for March 23, 2021, just days before Pesach (Passover).  Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing new challenges to his right and to his left although there still may be a consolidation of some of these parties between now and election day.   Candidates and political parties  actually have until early February to finalize their slates so it would be worthwhile to weigh in at that point once we see what the political landscape looks like.

Netanyahu's criminal trial is set to continue in early February 2021.  He is still hoping that he can get a 61 seat Knesset majority and pass a retroactive immunity bill to avoid facing these charges.  

Interestingly, or perhaps there are other adverbs, Netanyahu has embarked on a program of visiting Arab Israeli cities and asking Arab Israelis to vote for his Likud party.  Apparently, he is willing to offer some goodies in exchange for support of his immunity bill.  Now this is somewhat surprising since Netanyahu has spent the past several years attacking Arab Israeli politicians and making every effort to exclude them from any coalition.  In fact, he has argued that any government that relies on Arab Israeli support for its majority would be illegitimate.  How ironic would it be if he were to rely on exactly this support to try and get a retroactive immunity bill passed?  In any event - more politics in future blogs.

Lighter Notes

On the entertainment site, as you might have heard, "Shtisel" has returned for a third season.  Israeli TV station Yes Drama (Channel 5) has been showing the episodes on Sunday nights at 9 p.m. Israel time and  they are also showing up on youtube  the next day, though without translations.  You might need a VPN to watch them.  We have been enjoying the show.  I think it has been 3  episodes so far - not sure how many there are in the series.  In case you haven't seen it, I believe that the first two seasons are still on Netflix. 

Israel also has a variety of comedy shows that focus on political satire, especially impersonations of current politicians.  "Eretz Nehederet" ("A Wonderful Country") is one of these shows.  Many of its episodes are available on Youtube, some with subtitles.  It can be very funny, though it is hit or miss, much like Saturday Night Live.

Another show that has been increasing in popularity is called Zehu Zeh ("This is it").  The show is made up of a comedy troupe of five septuagenarians - who had a very popular comedy show back in the  70s.  They decided to get back  together and make a comeback which has included short satirical skits, impersonations and musical pieces.  I thought I would include a new release. Just last week they decided to put out an original song written by one of their colleagues and produced by a 30 something music  manager that they hired. 

It is called "The Pizza in Your Heart" - written about the search for the perfect slice of pizza and what happens when you finally find it - or how disappointing it can be to realize that maybe the slice that you dreamt of is not what you were really looking for after all.  It's all very tongue in cheek.  Although the idea might sound a bit cheesy, I think it's quite  fun. (Sorry about that).

Meanwhile, we are getting  some nice rainy  weather over the next few days, so I will have to postpone barbecuing.  I can't complain because it is still close to 20c outside.  I was happy to watch the Toronto Maple Leafs'  season opener last night (even though it was on at about 2 a.m. local time).  It was an overtime win for the boys in blue.  And I'm looking forward to NFL playoff weekend, especially the chance to see the Buffalo Bills try to get their second playoff win in 25 years.  As a Toronto hockey fan, that sounds all too familiar.  

Wishing everyone the best of health, Shabbat Shalom and a much improved 2021.

Final Blog of 2020 - Covid, Elections, Sports and a Few Other Items

As 2020 draws to a close (good riddance), I thought I would squeeze in one more blog - a pot pourri of  selected issues related to Israel, on some of the topics that I have been writing regularly.  There are many things to discuss but I don't want to be too repetitive.  So here goes...

Covid-19

In some ways,  I think it is fair to say that Israel is in the midst of a good news/bad news period in dealing with the pandemic.  On the one hand, the virus has been spreading rapidly, including the "British mutation," the "South African mutation" and now the "Indian mutation."  There have been more than 3,500 new cases a day recently  and 10-15 people have been dying daily, if not more.   This is all, of course, the bad news side of things.  

As a result, the Israeli government instituted a 3 week partial lockdown starting on December 21, 2020.  Unlike the first lockdown, public schools have remained open.  Non-essential retail establishments are closed and restaurants are permitted "delivery only" but no take-out service.  The airport has remained open and Israel has not instituted testing for all arrivals.  The government attempted to institute a mandatory quarantine plan in government-sponsored hotels but that soon fell apart.  It is fairly clear that at least some of the out of control spread of the virus has been the result of travellers arriving back in Israel and failing to follow any proper quarantine rules.  This has been the case since the initial outbreak in March, 2020 and the government has been unwilling to take necessary steps to stop it, largely for political  reasons.

On the good news side of the ledger, the Israeli government has ramped up its vaccination program to the tune of more than 120,000 vaccines a day.  For now, Israelis who are over 60 years of age, front line health care workers and those with extremely serious medical conditions are the only ones being vaccinated.  

Israel, as you may know, has a public  health care system.  It is somewhat like the Canadian system,  though instead of one "OHIP" - there are a few different Health Care organizations - and Israelis can choose which one they wish to join.  They are all under the umbrella of the Ministry of Health, so they are each funded by the government.   There are additional user fees and optional enhanced plans - though these tend to be priced quite reasonably.  

So it is these health care providers - Maccabi, Clalit, Leumit and Meuhedet, that have set up stations across the country and are using smart phone apps, web sites, and their computerized systems to arrange appointments and roll out the vaccines as quickly as possible.  By all accounts, it seems to be working quite efficiently.  The providers have set aside the second vaccination dose for each person that receives the shot and have booked a second date automatically 21 days after the first dose.  

Government estimates are that more than 80% of Israelis in these higher risk groups will have received their second dose by mid-February 2021.  The general population is expected to start receiving the vaccine within the next week or two, with the government currently hoping to have close to 50% of all Israelis fully vaccinated by the end of March, 2021.  It sounds optimistic, but given that the providers are managing to vaccinate more than 120,000 people a day, it seems quite possible.  

It remains to be seen whether the vaccine is as effective as touted, how it will deal with new mutations and how long the inoculation will last.  We also don't know yet whether the vaccine will prevent people from spreading the virus to others.  But there is certainly a feeling in Israel that we are nearing the end, even though there are still some very difficult months ahead.

Politics

As you may know and as I mentioned in my last post, Israel is heading to the polls for the 4th time in the past 2 years on March 23, 2021, just a few days before Pesach (Passover).  

If I were to try to cover all of the different political developments, I think I would need to write several columns a week, if not daily.  New political parties are sprouting up like weeds and it is far too difficult to try and make any predictions at this point.

But here are a  few of the highlights.

One of Likud's most senior members, Gideon Saar has formed a new party called "New Hope" and he has taken several Likud members with him.  Reported polls have estimated between 15 and 20 seats for New  Hope though I think it is far too early to start counting these  votes.  Saar has staked out his ground as a "solid right wing" alternative to the Likud led by  Netanyahu.  As far as I can tell, this seems to mean just about all of the same policies as the Likud without the alleged corruption.  Saar has vowed that he will not form a government with Bibi but we have heard that before from the Blue and White Party.  I'm skeptical.

Saar joins "Yamina" - the "Right," led by Naftali Bennett in a reasonably crowded field of right-wing nationalist parties.  

It is probably fair to include the Blue and White party in that camp as well, since the left and centrist members of that party split away when Blue and White entered into a coalition government with Likud in March 2020.  Yesterday Ganz announced that he will remain on as party leader and that he is  not giving up.  Polls show that the Blue and White party is running at about 5 seats and is flirting with coming in below the minimum electoral threshold.  Most commentators seem to agree that Gantz was thoroughly humiliated by Netanyahu but, for now, Gantz has elected to stay on.

Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai

In another development yesterday, the mayor of Tel-Aviv, Ron Huldai, also held a press conference and unveiled his new party called "The Israelis."  Huldai's party is intended to offer a bit more of a left-centre approach than Blue and White.  Politically, it would probably fall somewhere between Yesh Atid and Meretz, though it remains to be seen how Huldai's party differentiates itself from those other two left-centre parties.  I have not yet seen any poll predictions as to how many seats The Israelis would get but they might make things interesting.

There are other developments as well, including key politicians leaving different parties and joining some of these new ones but I am not going to get into all of the details.

The long and the short of it is that Bibi is facing several challenges from the right, the centre and left.  Most of these challengers have stated, quite unequivocally, that they will not agree to an "immunity bill" that gets Bibi out of his legal problems.  They have also stated that they will not enter a coalition agreement with Bibi and his Likud party but I think the election results will really determine whether that promise can be upheld.

All of that being said, there is lots of time between now and the cut off date for new parties to enter the election campaign, which does not occur until mid-February I believe.   So the only thing that seems reasonably certain is that there will be many new developments between now and the election.  As of now, it looks likely that Israel will elect a fairly right wing government, with or without Bibi, but a lot can change in a few months.  It does, however, seem like quite a long shot that Bibi will be able to get a "Get out of Jail Free" Card in the form of an immunity law.  In the meantime, his criminal trial is scheduled to continue in February 2021.

Sports

There are a few interesting sports stories that are worth mentioning.

One of the big sports stories in Israel in 2020 is in NBA basketball.  The Washington Wizards drafted Danny Avdija 9th overall in this year's NBA draft.  This was huge news in Israel since 6 foot 9 inch Avdija was born in Israel on Kibbutz Beit Zera.  Very few Israeli basketball players have made the NBA and he is the highest drafted Israeli ever.

Many people have been staying up until the wee hours to watch Washington Wizard games even though cheering for the pitiful Wizards has been a disconcerting proposition to date.  Through four games, all losses, Avdija has averaged 7.5  points a game and 5 rebounds.  Not earth shattering but it is early.  I confess that I jumped on the bandwagon and watched the first game but since I am not a huge basketball fan, I have only done this  once.  If I were to watch middle of the night basketball in Israel, it would probably be my home town Raptors, though I understand they are also off to an equally dismal start.  Generally, I tend to save the basketball watching  for the playoffs, if at all.  

A second big sports story is in the world of soccer, or football, depending on your preference.  As you might have seen, UAE Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Nahyan bought 50% of the Beitar Jerusalem Football Club.  The deal was announced soon after the peace deal between the UAE and Israel.

This is really quite fascinating.  Beitar is known for having  a very right wing fan base, who have, at times, chanted anti-Arab slogans at football matches.  They sing several vulgar songs at Beitar matches and have also been known to show up at pro-Bibi political rallies.  For years, Beitar had  no Muslim players on its side unlike many of the other teams in the Israeli league.  So it is quite remarkable that of all teams, the Sheikh has decided to purchase and rehabilitate this team, in the spirit of "Muslim-Jewish cooperation" as he puts it.  It will be really interesting to see how the fans react and how this all works out.

Lastly, on the sports side - is the world of ice hockey.  One of my friends sent me a link to an article that referred to a recent UAE-Israeli ice hockey match played  between the UAE Mighty Camels and the Bat Yam Chiefs.  I don't really recall seeing anything about it in the Israeli news but there is always hope that hockey will attract  more fans and  participants over time, especially with the relatively recent opening of a full size arena near Netanya.  And of course, it is nice to see yet another sign that the peace between Israel and the UAE may develop into the warmest peace deal yet between Israel and its Arab neighbours.   I guess we could say that the ice was broken quickly between these new peace partners.

As far as hockey goes, I have been staying up late to watch the World Junior Ice Hockey tournament.  These games have been on somewhere between 1 a.m. and 3:30 a.m. Israel time.  Three games, three big wins for Canada so far.   Canada has not faced stiff opposition yet so I look forward to seeing how they will play against Finland tomorrow night - and then in the  playoff round starting next week.  The World Junior Tournament is one of my favourite sports events to watch since you get to see so many future ice hockey stars trying to impress NHL scouts.  I am quite thankful to have a working VPN and streaming set-up.  It does take a toll on my sleeping patterns though.

Holidays

As I discussed in my last post, Chanuka is not a really big deal here, other than the ubiquitous donuts, and once Chanuka ends, everything is pretty much back to its normal schedule.

I thought  about the time-honoured tradition for American (and some Canadian)  Jews of eating Chinese food on Christmas Eve.  But it is really not a thing in Israel for several reasons.  For one, it is not a holiday here so everyone is simply on a regular schedule and does not have the time to get together that they have in North America, where everything is closed for the holiday.  

Secondly, and more challenging here is the difficulty of finding decent Chinese food. Although Israel has many different types of cuisine - including sushi and "pan-Asian" restaurants all over the country, there are very few decent Chinese restaurants and even fewer that are Kosher.  

That hasn't stopped me from trying to fill the void every now and then.  My hot and  sour  soup is pretty decent and I have made a range of other dishes.  But I think Chinese food is something that  is sorely lacking in Israel.  Perhaps an opportunity for a budding post-virus restauranteur?  Not me, that's for sure.

New Year's Eve here is known as "Silvester," named after Pope Silvester I.  Many Israelis celebrate with parties and festivities, though it is not an official holiday in Israel so everything is open as normal on New Year's Day.  Not sure what people will do this year in the midst of the pandemic but we happen to have some champagne choices on hand in case we want to go crazy...  

Food Developments

I couldn't let the year pass without commenting on something really interesting.  An Israeli company,  Aleph Farms, has been producing cell based meat grown from animal cells in a lab.  The company has been producing steaks and burgers.  No animal slaughter required.  

Another company, "Redefine Meat" has been producing 3D printed steaks which are made using digital models and food formulations but no actual animal products.  The steaks apparently have a very authentic taste. 

There are several other Israeli start ups also working in the meat alternative industry,  which is rapidly growing.  

Aleph Farms Alternative Meat

Many observant Jews are examining whether these products are to be considered Kosher, and if so whether they are meat, dairy or "pareve."  Questions also include what kind of supervision might be  required, and  whether the original cells have transformed into something else in the course of growth and production, such that they are no longer "meat."  Needless to say, these debates are likely to provide Rabbis and Yeshiva students across Israel and the Jewish world with a great deal of food for thought.

There's lots more to say but I will have to save some of it for 2021.  This has probably already been too long but I hope that you have found some of it to be interesting reading.

Best wishes for a happy and healthy 2021.

Post-Chanuka, Vaccinations Starting, 2020 On the Way Out

 

It has been a crazy year - not only in Israel, of course, but around the world.  But perhaps there is a sign of light at the end of the tunnel.  On Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu took one for the team - and presented himself to be the first person vaccinated in Israel with the Pfizer vaccine.  The vaccination was shown live on prime TV at 8 p.m.  

After a lengthy broadcast of all of the preparations for the big event, various medical personnel and security personnel were shown preparing the area for the big event.  The podium was polished and the microphone was carefully cleaned.  At 8 p.m. exactly, the Prime Minister showed up, gave a short speech (as did Likud Minister Yuli Edelstein) and then Netanyahu sat down for his vaccination.  Interestingly, his personal doctor administered the vaccine rather than the nurse who mixed it (which is apparently a breach of the hospital's rules).  In fact, three different medical personnel were seen on live tv handling the vaccine - two of whom weren't wearing gloves - before passing it to the gloveless doctor - seen in the photo.  Not sure if they will also broadcast  Netanyahu's return to the hospital in 21 days for his second dose but perhaps they will pay a bit more attention to hospital protocol for the second dose.

Admittedly, this is all a digression.  The good news, as reported by the  Israeli government and in various news outlets, is that Israel has begun vaccinating its citizens actively as of yesterday.  Medical stations, equipped with appropriate freezers, have been set up across the country and estimates are that Israel will be able to administer 60,000 vaccinations per day.  Israel has apparently purchased 8 million doses from Pfizer and several million more from Moderna.  At this rate, close to 2 million Israelis may be able to receive their first dose by the end of January.  If things continue at this pace and there are no snafus, it is quite conceivable that Israel will have vaccinated the majority of its residents by mid 2021.  I suppose it remains to be seen whether the vaccine actually works and whether that will effectively end the problem, at least in this country.

In the meantime, some commentators have characterized the atmosphere in Israel, in some sectors as "end of course" or "end of semester."  The idea is that often at the end of a school year (or some other type of course, perhaps an army training course) once all the hard work has been done - people become very lackadaisical about doing anything more (like, in this case, wearing masks, refraining from having parties etc.,).  But this is quite dangerous.  The vaccine is only being rolled out now and it will take months until it is administered fully.

At the same time, the current infection rate in Israel is very high with more than 2,000 new infections being reported daily.  The government has been debating various responses to the growing spread including shutting down the airport completely, shutting down all commerce other than "essential services" and sealing "red zones."  Yesterday, two flights arrived in Israel from Great Britain.   The passengers were all sent to government-arranged quarantine hotel accommodations.  At least 25 passengers refused and were sent back to Great Britain.  The concern apparently related to the latest mutation of Covid-19 which has been spreading in Great Britain.

Several weeks ago, Israel had designated the UAE a "green" country and decided to allow travel without quarantine back and forth between Israel and UAE.  Cynics among us might say that  this was partially intended to bolster the  nascent peace deal between the  UAE and Israel.  In any event, this resulted in thousands of Israelis flocking to Dubai - to attend parties, weddings and other gatherings all without wearing masks or taking other precautions.  Some groups of Israelis flew whole wedding parties to Dubai where they could hold "normal" weddings without any restrictions.  Others, like Israeli singer Eyal Golan, flew to Dubai just for some fun and partying.  Golan actually came back and was diagnosed as having Covid-19, though he is apparently doing fine now.  Still others, according to media reports, have been travelling to UAE for another well known purpose - sex tourism.  I suppose Covid-19 might be the least of the problems for some of these travellers.

In any event, Israel has now determined that there are no "green countries" and that all travellers will now be required to quarantine on return to Israel, even those coming from the UAE, despite any political ramifications, real or imagined.  It will apparently take effect three days from now - so I suppose there is still time for a quick whirlwind UAE simcha or some other type of equally rapturous event.  I think we will stay home, thanks.

In other news, and maybe I sound like a broken record here, if you have read my past columns, the current Israeli government is on the brink of collapse.   A vote on a non-confidence motion is expected either tonight or tomorrow.  If the government falls, there is talk of a March 23, 2021 election date, though that remains to be finalized.  Under Israeli law,  the 2020 budget  must  be passed by December 23, 2020, a date that was already moved back with previous legislation.  Since there is still no budget in place, either for 2020 or 2021, the government is set to collapse even without a non-confidence motion.  

There has been significant negotiation between Netanyahu's Likud party and Gantz's Blue and White party to reach a compromise, delay the date once again and keep this government alive with some urgent political CPR.   Over the weekend, there were reports that a deal was reached to resolve the crisis.  However, the concessions made by Gantz to Netanyahu to avoid an election were apparently too much to stomach for some of Gantz's Blue and White party members and it does not look like Gantz will be  able to get the full support of his party to keep the coalition together.

On the other side of the aisle, a long serving, high ranking Likud member, Gideon Saar, recently announced that he was leaving the Likud party and setting up his own party called "New Hope."  Does this sound familiar?  It is a very recurrent theme in Israeli politics.  In any case, Saar has been able to take a bunch  of Likud members with him and is running at 15-20  potential seats in the Knesset according to some polls.  Saar describes himself as a right wing politician, fully committed to most, if not all of Netanyahu's policies, other than, perhaps, those  dealing with the rule of law, on which Saar states that he is committed fully to the fight against corruption and the rule of law.  Saar has stated that he is not prepared to join a government led by Netanyahu following the next election.  I think I remember Gantz saying very similar things....

In any event, polls suggest that Netanyahu may now have a difficult time forming a government after the next election, but I wouldn't rule him out.  The Covid-19 vaccine is being rolled out, the economy may start to improve - and Netanyahu will figure out what kind of campaign is likely to work best against his latest foe.  Netanyahu  is a seasoned politician who  knows how to tackle difficult challenges.  His nickname is "the magician" so we will see if he can pull yet  another election win out of his hatful of tricks.

Netanyahu has refused to agree to pass state budgets for 2020 or 2021 because the coalition deal that he signed with Gantz stated that if the government were to fall for any reason, Gantz would become interim Prime Minister.  The one exception was if the government were to fall because of a budget disagreement, in which case Netanyahu would continue to be the Prime Minister until the next government was formed.  So once Netanyahu decided that this government wasn't working to his satisfaction the only choice he had for bringing down the government was one related to the budget - so that he will remain on as the interim Prime Minister throughout the next election campaign. 

Netanyahu's criminal proceedings are scheduled to continue now  in early February, having been delayed several times.  He is facing charges of breach of trust, corruption and bribery.  If convicted, he could face a lengthy prison term.   Given the past  pattern, it is likely that  Netanyahu will seek  a further adjournment, perhaps until after the pending election, though it is not clear that it will be granted  by the court this time.  He is still hoping for the "big win" in the election that would get him a coalition government with a retroactive immunity bill to end all of his legal troubles.  That does not look like a probable outcome at this juncture, even if Netanyahu wins the election and is able to piece together another government.

Chanuka has come and gone.  In Israel, the big culinary emphasis around  Chanuka time is donuts rather than latkes.  

Bakeries try to come up with all sorts of eye-catching designs.  Many of the donuts are jelly filled but I saw a really wide variety of options  - pistachio-crème, chocolate mousse, lemon, strawberry and even tehina (sesame paste) filled calorie bombs.  Fortunately, I don't really have a weakness for donuts.   We picked up a few for the first night of Chanuka but they looked better than they tasted.  

On the other hand - I do have a weakness for homemade potato latkes, especially the way both of my grandmothers and my mom used to make them.  Just good old fashioned ingredients, potato, onion, eggs,  salt, pepper and maybe a bit of baking powder and flour (too hard to find matzah meal in Israel when it is not Passover time).  I tried to learn a bit from all three teachers.  I also made some homemade applesauce to accompany the  latkes with our Friday night dinner.  And one night we ate a dairy meal and had a few with sour cream.  The latkes probably did more damage than the donuts - but it has not turned  out to be a lasting problem, thankfully.  

It was nice to be here for the full Chanuka holiday this year, even though there were few of the normal festivities due to the pandemic. But the weather has been fairly moderate, low 20s C (high 60sF) with some rain here  and there.  One of the nice things about being in Israel, for someone who is Jewish, is the almost complete absence of Christmas this  time of year.  I don't say that in a way that is intended to offend anyone - but December is always the time that I felt the least Canadian and most like an outsider.  

From early November (if not sooner), in Canada, the radio stations play non-stop Christmas music, malls and stores are filled with it everywhere - and everything revolves around Christmas until it ends.  Many other Canadian immigrant and minority groups have just  accepted all of this as the trappings of being "Canadian" and assimilated into the Christmas culture.   Many Jewish Canadians, however, have not and have remained among the few groups of Canadians who do not celebrate Christmas.  Sure, many Jewish Canadians go out for Chinese food on Christmas Eve or go to a movie - or even a "Matzah Ball" - or other social event.  Others have left the country by Christmas for a vacation in Florida or some other warm destination, maybe even Israel.  And most who have remained enjoy the day off.   But for the most part, many Jewish Canadians are simply reminded at this  one time of year - of what differentiates them from other Canadians.

Here in Israel, there are certainly people  who celebrate  Christmas.  You can see Christmas lights and  trees in Jaffa, Haifa, Bethlehem, Nazareth and other places - and there are Christian Israelis who celebrate the holiday fully.  But since it is a majoritarian Jewish country, everything is open on Christmas, there are no decorations in the malls and there is no Christmas music on the radio or in the schools.

I have nothing against people celebrating the holiday - whether here, in Canada or anywhere else.  Quite the opposite - I wish everyone all the best in celebrating all of the holidays that they might observe, whether that is Christmas, Diwali, Eid Al Fitr or other holidays.  In fact, I have been honoured to attend a few Christmas dinners with some of my best friends in Canada as well as celebrations of other holidays.

But here in Israel, it is a very special time of year  -  where we can celebrate Chanuka - a holiday that is uniquely ours - and enjoy one of those benefits of being in a majority Jewish culture.  

Chanuka, as you might know, is a "minor" holiday on the Jewish calendar.  Businesses are open and there are no real restrictions on day to day activity.  It is not nearly as important a holiday  as our fall holidays of Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur and Sukkot nor is it as significant as Pesach (Passover).  At the same time, it is widely observed, which in Israel means lighting the Chanukiah and eating a bunch of donuts - and maybe some latkes.  

In any event, Chanuka has ended and I think it is fair to say that the main thing people in Israel are now thinking about is when they will be able to get vaccinated - and when things will return to normal.  Whether inspired by Chanuka, Christmas or Diwali, all of which have a  significant theme of light, I think are all hoping to see some bright light at the end of this long period of darkness.

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy holiday season and all the best for 2021!