Chanuka Approaching 2020: Virus Not Leaving Yet: Update from Israel

 

Chanuka is quickly approaching - only two days until the first candle - so I thought it was time to write an update about a few things going on here in Israel - and maybe some other comments, connected or not.

The photo shown is a random store on Ahuza street in Ra'anana with a table display of a variety of  Chanukiot (the 8-candle Menorahs that we light on Chanuka).  This is only one of many stores that has this kind  of display.   Retailers all  over Israel are selling Chanukiot, bakeries are selling sufganyot (jelly filled  donuts, usually) and caterers are offering latke specials.  So you could say that Chanuka is in the air, though it is not the only thing circulating.

To mark the holiday, the Israeli government, in its infinite wisdom, has decided on a two step plan to combat the  spread of Covid-19.  On the one hand, there will be an evening curfew for a period of two weeks.  Just about everything will be  closed, apparently, and  people will  be prohibited from travelling between cities, at night.  Remaining details are still to be announced if the "Corona Cabinet" can agree.  To complement this evening curfew plan, the government has decided to fully reopen all  malls,  across the country, during the daytime.   A few shopping malls in "red zones" will be the exception and will remain closed.  Now I may not be an expert but  I am scratching my head trying to figure out how this plan makes any sense at all.   Infection numbers have been rising in Israel  - and we seem to be in the range of 700 to 1000 new cases per  day.  Some government ministers have stated in interviews that they expect that the numbers will rise significantly by January 1 - and we will then have a full closure (the "3rd closure") for several weeks in January.  Really, I'm not making this stuff up.  That is the plan.  (Added new update - sounds like the Israeli courts have indicated that this plan would not fly so the "night curfew" is now unlikely to come into effect).

Speaking of the Israeli government, you may have heard that it is on  the verge of dissolution - maybe.  The Knesset has passed the first reading of a bill that would dissolve the current government and set an election date.  By law, if an agreement is not reached to stop the dissolution and pass a budget, the Knesset will automatically dissolve on December 23, 2020.  This would lead to Israel's 4th election in a span of 2 years. The dissolution bill would normally require two more  readings before it is passed - but  there could be an automatic dissolution as an alternative.  Or there could still be a last minute compromise.

Netanyahu's Likud party entered into a coalition agreement with Benny Gantz's Blue and White party following the March 2020 election.  One of the terms of the agreement was that the coalition would pass budgets for 2020 and 2021 in the Knesset.  But the coalition agreement also included a term that  stated if the government fell for any reason - other than a disagreement over the budget - Gantz would become the "interim Prime Minister" until after the election.  If the government were to fall because of a disagreement over the budget, then Netanyahu would continue to be the Prime Minister until the next government is formed.

Netanyahu was  not happy with this coalition from the  start, since it was not willing to grant him the retroactive immunity bill that he has been seeking to extricate himself from all of his legal troubles.  So he has been biding his time, waiting for his poll numbers to rise, and looking for an opportunity to call another election when conditions are more favourable in the  hope that he can piece together a right-wing coalition that will  give him  the  immunity that he has long sought.  He has refused to pass budgets either for 2020 or for 2021, since passing a budget would leave him vulnerable to losing his position, even on an interim basis.

Covid-19 has continued to hamper Netanyahu's plans.  His criminal  trial  has been delayed by a month and is scheduled to continue in early February 2021.  So he is really hoping  that an election can be  called before then, that he can delay the trial due to the election and that he can win the election and  pass an immunity bill.

Can he do all of this?   Well, Netanyahu now has a plan.  The Israeli government has  been buying  massive quantities  of vaccine, from Pfizer and Moderna as well as any other company that might have vaccinations to sell.  Okay, maybe not the Russian vaccine though there have apparently been some tests of that  one in Israel. Nyet, thanks.  In any event,  according to some reports, Israel will have more than 4 million vaccines available by late December or  early January, from Pfizer and Moderna, enough to vaccinate almost half of the population.

I read yesterday that Canada was getting ready to roll out  350,000 vaccines for a population of more than 30 million.  That number sounded very low.   Contrast that to Israel's plan to vaccinate a  huge percentage of the population by mid to late winter.  Maybe the numbers were way off. 

If the vaccine has been rolled out before the next Israeli election and it seems to be working - and the economy starts to improve - it is quite imaginable that Netanyahu will get the win he wants and get his "get out of jail free" card.  Of course the opposition is trying to schedule the election as quickly as possible, while the numbers show some possibility that Netanyahu may not win.  But it looks like it will be hard to bet against Netanyahu, especially if the vaccine works and the economy begins to pick up again.

Travel

One of the big accomplishments for the current Israel government has been the establishment of peace deals with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan.  The UAE has indicated that it is very interested in a "warm peace" with wide-ranging cooperation in technological, medical, agricultural, pharmaceutical and military areas as well as  tourism.  Israeli and UAE airlines are now able to overfly Saudi Arabia and get to Dubai in about 3 hours.  To foster this tourism, the UAE has been  designated as a "green" destination, which means that 14 day isolation is not required for returning tourists.   Kosher food is available in Dubai for those who want it and Israelis are being  encouraged to visit and are being welcomed warmly.  I haven't heard of anyone visiting Bahrain or Sudan but thousands of Israelis, even in the  midst of this pandemic, are visiting Dubai.  Some Israeli ultra-religious groups have held weddings in Dubai - bringing the whole entourage there to ensure a restriction-free wedding.  Others are going to the UAE just to be able to go somewhere and get out of Israel for a bit.  

For those of us looking to fly to Canada, that still involves a 14 day quarantine - in both directions - which seems a bit impractical.  Maybe I'll manage to get an early vaccine  and that will help things.  Or maybe we'll go with the herd and visit the UAE.  Not too likely at this point.

TV

Over the past few month, we have watched some excellent TV series.  Most recently, we watched the Israeli-produced series "Valley  of Tears"  ("Sha'at Ne'ilah" in Hebrew) - about the 1973 Yom Kippur war.  The series aired over 8 weeks beginning in mid-October.  It is a 10 part series but double episodes were shown at the beginning and the end.  The final episode was last night.   It was very intense.  Excellent acting and very powerful.   The series follows two particular units, an intelligence unit and a tank unit and delves into the personal stories of many of the combatants, on the Israeli side.  It is a shocking reminder of the horrors of the Yom Kippur war and, really the horrors of any war.  At  times, it is graphic and  difficult to watch and it is quite stressful.  

After each episode, the Israel TV station had a panel discussion with surviving soldiers who had fought in the battle and discussed their experiences, their comments on the series, and the impact on their lives.  These discussions were as moving and emotionally draining as the show itself.  

Although there  were some unrealistic parts, in some of the early episodes in particular, the series has received favourable reviews.  Veterans have commented that the  last two episodes were incredibly realistic and have generally been grateful that the series has raised the consciousness of so many people about the Yom Kippur War.  Valley of Tears is now showing on HBO  Max, though I am not sure how Canadians can watch it.  Sderot.tv is probably an option.

A few months earlier, we watched the Israeli series Tehran about an Israeli agent, sent to disable the Iranian central electrical system to assist Israel with a strike on the Iranian nuclear reactors.   This was also fascinating.  Although much of it seemed much less realistic and believable than other TV series, it did seem reasonably balanced and had many parts that seemed very plausible.   Tehran is showing on Apple TV in North America.

We also watched "The  Queen's Gambit" recently, which is probably less related to this blog - though all three of us thought it was amazing (there were only 3 in the house at the time...).  I think it is on Netflix everywhere.  With its range of themes including gender equality (in the chess world and otherwise), addiction, competition and the power of chess, it is quite an impressive production.

Cooking

My ongoing  quest to make the perfect Humus continues.  I think I have been doing a pretty good job.  Recipe available on request.  For a while we were buying humus from a local humus shop.  While it was quite good and reasonably priced - I felt it had too much cumin in it for my taste.  So I decided to see if I could get my own homemade humus to compete for the hearts and taste buds of our family members.  Last  Friday's humus was probably our best batch yet, made with extra large chick peas, soaked over night - and then peeled individually after boiling.  Sure it was labour intensive  but very creamy and smooth.  

To  go with the humus, I have also been making Zhoug, a  Yemenite-Israeli hot sauce that combines hot peppers with fresh cilantro leaves and a  range of spices in small quantities - ground coriander, cumin, cardamon, cloves, black pepper and  maybe  even  a touch of  cinnamon.   This has also been a big hit - even among the hard to please Yemenite critics who have sampled it.

Next up of course will be latkes for Chanuka though I expect that we will just make the classic traditional type.  It's only once a year - a few latkes can't be that bad, can they?

On  the purely random side, I thought I would  add in this picture that I took in Tel-Aviv last week.  This bird was so close and so interested in posing that I had to oblige.

We were right near Rabin Square.   The nearby park area was filled with people  even in the midst of the pandemic.   Apparently, restaurants are serving "take-out packages" that include a blanket, a basket and everything you need to take the meal and go sit in the park and eat it.  Apparently  you return the blanket  and basket etc., when you are  done.  People are constantly coming up with ways to try and  do "normal" things in these pandemic times.

For my last  note,  I couldn't  resist including  this picture of a coffee cup that I saw in a small store.  As you may be able to see, there is a Hebrew blessing written on the mug.

You might be familiar with a blessing called "she'hechyanu"  - which is recited on festive holydays, joyous life cycle events - and other occasions.  It essentially thanks God for "giving us life, sustaining us  and  enabling us to reach this moment."  This coffee  cup changed the blessing a bit to give thanks for "giving us life, sustaining us and  enabling us to reach coffee time."  It is a very applicable blessing for many of my good friends, family members and completely unrelated readers who  love a good cup of coffee.

Here's hoping that the bright lights of the holiday season  - whether the candles we will soon light on Chanukah - or the Christmas lights for those celebrating later this month - will bring us all some real brightness, warmth and joy - and hopefully usher in a much better 2021!

Best of health to everyone.

Hula Valley Nature Reserve and Har Odem Winery

Hula Valley Nature Reserve

One of the distinct advantages of being in Israel  this time of year is  the weather.  While we may hit some  rainy weather  soon, for the most part we have continued to enjoy very comfortable temperatures, mostly in the mid 20s (C) or 70s if you prefer Fahrenheit.  There are many national parks in Israel, most of which are within a one to two hour drive from Ra'anana.  So there are numerous opportunities to go for a hike, a swim or a combination of both.  We are also only about 15 minutes away from the beach, so that is always another option.

Of course this year has been a very different year all around the world and Israel is no exception.  Most of the national parks have been closed for much of the time since the initial Covid-19 outbreak in early March, 2020.  So we haven't really been able to travel around to all of these wonderful sites.

Over the past few weeks, Israel has moved to a version of "phase 2 reopening" which has included the opening of national parks.  So we decided to take a Sunday trip and visit one of the most incredible sites in Israel - the Hula Valley Nature Reserve.  In short, the Reserve is a bird sanctuary, acting as a major stopover  for birds migrating between Africa, Europe and Asia.  One estimate is that 500 million birds pass through the area each year.

The prime season for seeing the  birds is between late October and mid-March, during which time there are hundreds of thousands of birds in the park each day.  

You can visit the park in a number of different ways.  The main park route is a path that is about 8 km long.  You can walk the trail, rent bicycles (single bikes or multi-person  bikes) or you can rent a golf cart.  If you explore the park on your own, you can see several different birds, especially if you are visiting close to sunrise or sunset hours.

We had visited the park previously a few years ago and rented a group  bicycle for five of us.  But we were there in the middle of the day (little did we know). Although we saw some birds, we were  a bit disappointed.

This time we arranged to take the "Sunset Treasures Tour."  This is a one hour group tour on a big tractor-pulled wagon - that looks like it can seat about 40-50 people normally.  During these Covid-19 times, we were all spaced out and grouped in "capsules" with 3 seats separating each group.  Everyone had to wear a mask.

But this tour was simply extraordinary.  The tractor is able to enter areas that are normally off-limits and drive right alongside flocks of birds without scaring the birds away -  because the tractor is the same type  as the park's feeding  tractors.  As you can see from the photos above, we drove right up to enormous flocks of birds, turned off the engine and sat quietly watching  them.  Hundreds, if not thousands of birds ascended and descended as we watched.  

We had an outstanding tour guide who was well equipped with very high powered  binoculars.  She was able to point out a wide range of  birds including spoonbills, pelicans, herons and many others.  The vast majority of the birds in the park are common cranes.  While they may not be the world's most beautiful bird, it is quite  incredible to see  so many of them chirping  and squawking in one place.

Before taking the sunset tour, we made our way through the park.  We didn't  see  nearly as many birds but we still had some great views.  Our guide recommended trying the "sunrise magic" tour as well, which means getting to the park at about 5 a.m. - for a pre-booked tour.  Sounds tempting and we might try it one  day but the Sunset Treasures tour at about 5 p.m. is somewhat more manageable.  This was so fantastic that we might even do it again before  the end of the season.   

The Hula Valley Reserve is located in northern Israel not too far from Kiryat Shemona - which is at the border between Israel and Lebanon.  It is about a one and a half hour drive from Ra'anana or other parts of central Israel.  For anyone in Israel between November and March, this is really a special experience.

Har Odem (Odem Mountain) Winery

Before arriving at the Hula Valley Reserve, we looked for a winery to visit that we hadn't yet toured.  Pickings were  slim these days because of Covid-19 and most wineries were not open for the full tasting experience.  Some, however, have their wine stores and gift shops open.  

We decided to visit the Har Odem Winery (Odem Mountain Winery), which is located in the  Golan Heights, in northern Israel.  It  is about  25 minutes away  from  the Hula Valley Reserve.  Odem is a winery that was founded in 2003 by the Alfasi family.  It is described as the "northern most winery in Israel" with grapes growing at an elevation of between 1100 and 1200 metres above sea level.  

The grapes are grown on volcanic soil and the vineyards are snow covered for much of the winter.  The weather in the spring and summer is quite nice.  A variety of different grapes are grown.

Because of Covid-19, we were not able to arrange a full wine tasting.  But we were able to buy a bottle of Nebbiolo-Syrah and drink it outside.  Nebbiolo is not a commonly grown grape in Israel so this is a unique blended wine.  There were a few tables set up so the four of us chose one and enjoyed  this rich tasting wine along with some perfect weather.   The winery representative, Erez, I believe, was knowledgeable, friendly, funny and helpful.  He brought us a nice platter of cheese and bread to go with the wine (all local goat cheeses and local breads) (and all kosher) and spoke to us about the full range of Odem wines.  We quite enjoyed the unique wine that we tasted, though it was a bit on the pricey side at 180 shequels (about $72 Cdn).  But this was one of their higher end wines.  Since we bought a few, we received a discount so the price worked out to be better than full retail.  The winery also has a few white wines, a range of red wines starting with the winery's basic cabernet and some other varietals at about 69 shq ($28 Cdn).  The winery store also sells locally produced olive oil, jams and locally made ceramics.  It was quite a nice store and quite a nice winery to visit.  We did also pick up some of the olive oil and a delicious cherry jam.  

Forni Stone Fired Pizza in Rosh Pina

By the time we finished the sunset tour, made a pit stop and left the Hula Reserve, we were getting hungry.  And it was probably close to 8 p.m.  So we drove to the nearby town of Rosh Pina and set out to find something to eat.  All the restaurants were only running take out services due to Covid-19 so we were going to have to eat outside or in our car.

We managed to come across Forni Stone Fired Pizza - a strictly Kosher pizza place ("Kosher l'Mehadrin").  We thought about it for a bit and then decided to order.  The pizza was thin crusted Italian style pizza.  We picked our toppings, placed our order and waited.

The service was prompt and friendly and the pizza was ready quite quickly.  It was reasonably priced and very tasty. 

We are hard to please when it comes to pizza since as a general rule, the pizza in Israel is not great.  This is probably due in part to the lack of really good mozzarella and other hard cheeses.  Sometimes the pizza sauces are also quite bland.  In Ra'anana, for example, there are just aren't many pizza places that I would recommend.  

But Forni pizza was quite good.  One of our foursome said that it was the "best pizza she had eaten in Israel."  We have had some good pizza over the years, in Jerusalem, in K'far Saba and maybe  even at one or two of the places in Ra'anana.   So that is a pretty good compliment.  This crust was done really well.  The sauce was tangy and the cheese was tasty.   All of us enjoyed it.  So next time we are in Rosh Pina and hungry, we have a place to go.  Not that we are in Rosh Pina that often but you never know.  

In fact, whenever I think of Rosh Pina, with its estimated population of about 3,000, I think of a song written by Natan Zach Z"L who died this past week.  The song was sung by Israeli singer Nurit Galron, called "Pizmon Hozer" ("Repeating Chorus").  I first heard it in the mid-1980s.  It starts off with the words:

I went to Kiryat Shemona - but I had nothing to do there.

I continued to Rosh Pina - but I had no one to talk to there....

In fairness to Rosh Pina, the lyricist continues on, sung soulfully by Galron, to mention other places where there was nothing going on  - including Haifa, Holon and Ashdod and ultimately, the sea.  But the first verse always seemed to stick out in my head - that there was nothing to do in the small town of Rosh Pina.  My association is reinforced by the memory of being stuck in Rosh Pina in 1986 on a Friday afternoon after the last bus had left the town just  after 2:00 p.m. with no way to get back to Jerusalem.   

But now I know there is at least one thing to do there - I can get some pretty decent pizza to eat.  So I now have a new association in my head when "Rosh Pina" pops up.  And it's a tasty one. 

Shabbat Shalom and best of health to everyone. 

U.S. Elections, Israeli Politics and Remembrance Day 2020

It is Remembrance Day, 2020, eight days after the U.S. election.  Amidst the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. and the almost equally tenuous situation in Israel, a blog post is overdue.  On Remembrance Day, we reflect on the high price that we have paid to fight for freedom and democracy - the millions of civilians and soldiers who lost their lives to ensure a better  future for everyone else.  And of course, we often think of what might have been if the Allies had not emerged victorious by the end of the Second World War.

I haven't provided this introduction to be overly dramatic.  But there are very real concerns facing democracy in the United States and in Israel and I think some context and discussion is relevant.

As  of the writing of this blog, the U.S. is really at a crossroads.  We await the "official" results even as most major U.S. networks, including pro-Trump networks like Fox News, have called the election in favour of Joe Biden.  

On the one hand, I accept that either candidate is entitled to ensure that full and final results are tabulated and certified.  Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have still not been called.  The margins are very slim and there are still many votes left to be counted.  North Carolina seems highly likely to go to Trump.  It is within the realm of possibility that Arizona or  Georgia or  both could be flipped as a result of lawful counting.  But even if Trump managed to take both Arizona and Georgia, which seems unlikely but possible, that would still leave him behind 279-259.  

What next?  Again, on the legal side, it is possible that a legitimate recount of Wisconsin could flip the state.  The margin is very small.  However, this seems unlikely.  Trump won Wisconsin by a very small margin in 2016 but the result was upheld.  There is no reason to believe that the Wisconsin ballot counters are off by so many votes.  They seem to know how to oversee closely contested elections.  

Winning and flipping Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would be highly improbable  but if the votes bring those results legitimately, it would not be undemocratic or improper.  On the contrary, it would be entirely democratic and appropriate if that  was what the actual votes showed.  

But assuming that Trump loses at least one of those three states, there is no real path to re-election for Trump other than the use of the judicial system to mount a large-scale attack on the U.S. voting process - in states that Trump has lost.   This is where things become frightening. 

The margin in Pennsylvania is more than 40,000 votes and is likely to wind up being more than 70,000-80,000 votes.  As of the writing of this blog, no evidence has been presented that would come close to invalidating that many legal votes.  But Trump seems to be convinced that if he can bring any argument at all to the Supreme Court of the United States (even if he is defeated at lower court levels), his battalion of three newly appointed justices will combine with two or three of the existing right-wing judges on the Supreme Court and uphold any argument that he puts forward, even one which disenfranchises more than 40,000 voters.

I am hopeful that we will not get close to  this scenario, but it is a terrifying one.  This type of ruling, if it were to occur, could only be characterized as a court-sanctioned coup.  We have already seen the U.S. Supreme Court tilt an election to the Republicans in a ridiculously partisan 5-4 decision in Bush v. Gore.  We can only take solace in the notion that Florida in 2000 was unclear in any event and a decision  in Gore's favour at that  time may not have resulted in a Democratic victory.  If the Supreme Court were to side with Trump in the present circumstances, it would be a very different situation, by orders of magnitude. 

You might be wondering how this all relates to my blog.  I think there are a few different responses.

First of all, Israel and its leadership are watching the U.S. results as closely as any other country in the world, if not more so.  Prime Minister Netanyahu has invested a great deal in his personal relationship with Trump.  In the last Israeli election, Netanyahu posted billboards all over the country with giant pictures of him and Trump posing together with the message that only Netanyahu could continue the special relationship with President Trump and the United States.  Netanyahu has placed most, if not all, of his eggs in the Republican basket.  He has cooperated with Trump to try and shift support for Israel to a partisan idea in the U.S. in the hopes of moving voters to the Republican party.  

Although President Obama took some actions that were viewed as hostile to Israel's interests, the Obama administration was very supportive of Israel in many other ways.  The U.S fully supported Israel during the  Gaza war, improved military and technological cooperation and handed off a very strong U.S. - Israel relationship to Trump.  There are some real questions about the Iran nuclear deal that was signed under Obama.  Additionally, it is unfortunate the Obama snubbed Israel at the beginning of his administration and refused to visit while he was "in the neighbourhood."  His support for an anti-Israel U.N. resolution on the way out the door at the end of his second term was odious.  But it is very misleading to conclude that the Democratic party has gone along with Trump's efforts to make Israel a partisan issue.  There are many leading Democrats who are very supportive of Israel and if Biden wins the election and takes office, it will be very important for Netanyahu and Israel to work with Biden constructively.  

At the same time, Trump deserves credit for moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, for cutting off funding to Palestinians until they agree to end the "pay for slay" program and for advancing peace agreements between Israel and other countries in the region.   A Biden administration may reverse some of these policies and that may not bring the region any closer to peace.  Hopefully Biden will be more supportive of Israel than Obama was in some areas.  Indications are that this is likely.

All of this has put Netanyahu in a quandary.  He has invested so much energy and political capital in mobilizing support for the Republicans that he found himself in an awkward situation staring at a likely Biden victory.  Even as news networks across the U.S. were calling the election in Biden's favour, Netanyahu resisted recognizing his  buddy's  election loss.  While leaders of several other countries congratulated Biden, Netanyahu held out for more than 12 hours after which he finally felt forced to offer his best wishes.  Unlike the leaders of Russia, China, Turkey, Brazil and a few others, Netanyahu recognized that he would have to say something.  Notably, he has avoided calling Biden "President-elect" but he has sent at least one lukewarm message.  

This is not  Netanyahu's first awkward moment resulting from his pro-Republican partisanship. Weeks before the election, in a conference call with world leaders, Trump asked Netanyahu to confirm that "sleepy Joe" wouldn't have been able to bring about these peace deals with UAE, Bahrain and  Sudan.  After a long pause, Netanyahu demurred and  mumbled that Israel is happy to get the support of any  U.S. leaders who can provide assistance.  Trump's face told the whole story.  He  was  quite displeased with Netanyahu's response.  

Following the election,  Netanyahu was again faced with the question of how to keep Trump happy while not damaging Israel's political interests with a new U.S.  administration.

Netanyahu himself is in a very questionable situation.  He remained in power after the March 2020 elections by cobbling together a coalition with the biggest opposition party - Blue and White - which then promptly fractured into two parts, only one of which joined Netanyahu's coalition.  Key terms of that coalition deal included a two year budget (until the end of 2021) and a rotation agreement under which coalition partner Benny Gantz would become the Prime Minister in September 2021.  

Eight months have passed and no budget has been presented.  Netanyahu has taken the position that times have changed and the government should now only pass a budget that  covers 2020.  That would leave him something to argue about and a reason to break apart the coalition and  call a new election in early 2021.  Needless to say, the Blue and White party have demanded that Netanyahu honour the coalition deal and agree to a two-year budget.  The matter is headed for a showdown by the end  of November at which time the government will fall if a budget agreement is not reached.

Netanyahu is still holding out hope that he can win an election and put together a  right wing coalition.  His criminal trial is scheduled to resume in January 2021.  He is facing three different sets of charges for bribery, breach of trust and corruption.  Over the past three elections, he has been hoping that he can put together a coalition that would agree to legislation that would retroactively eliminate his criminal problems.  This would be a shockingly anti-democratic move but he  seems to have quite a large number  of Israel Knesset members who would be prepared to support this type of bill, though not he has not yet been able to get more than half the Knesset to sign on.

Unlike the U.S. President, the Prime Minister of Israel does  not have the power to pardon people (or himself).  He can seek a pardon from the President of Israel, who holds an otherwise largely ceremonial figurehead role, much like the Queen in England or the Governor General in Canada.  So Netanyahu will require a Knesset majority of some sort if he hopes to get his legal troubles to vanish.  On the other hand, I am quite convinced that if Trump eventually relinquishes his office (or is forced to do so), he will pardon himself and many many others, including family members and friends just before leaving office.  It remains to be  seen whether the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold this use of a self-pardon.  Certainly there appear  to be 3 or 4 judges would almost certainly side with Trump.  I suppose that Gorsuch, Coney Barrett and Roberts will be the real decision makers,  though I am beginning to feel more confident that Roberts would not go along.

In short, looking at all of this, we are facing some very real tests of democracy in both the U.S. and Israel.  The fight in the U.S. may extend into January as various court challenges, recounts and other steps are all addressed.  I offer my hope that honesty, fairness and integrity will prevail in both the recounts and any judicial decisions.  In Israel, things may not be decided any time soon.  There may be an election in the coming months but it may be followed by still more elections if Netanyahu is unable to win and rid himself of his criminal charges.  

In both cases, democracy  and freedom will only prevail if the eventual election results reflect the actual votes of the people and if the voices of the people are heard, upheld and implemented.  In assessing recent actions taken by Trump, including the spread of demonstrably false claims, and the efforts to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of  voters, we should remember the history lessons that we think of, especially today.  And remember how easily a vibrant democracy can quickly slide into totalitarianism.  

Mid October 2020: Partial Opening After 2nd Wave in Israel

Israel began to reopen today after a month of extensive Covid-19 closures.  Not everything re-opened but the national parks and the beaches opened their doors.  It is probably fair to say that the  beaches were never really closed.  People were attending regularly and, for the most part, police were staying away.  There was an exception that permitted people to go to the beach (but not enter the water) for purposes of "exercising."  So where the police did happen to show up at the beach - groups of backgammon playing bong-smokers suddenly became super active - doing jumping jacks, push-ups and other exercises in the sand.  While the police officers watched and waited...

Another restriction that ended today prevented people from travelling more than  one  kilometer from their  homes.  Except for grocery shopping, drug store purchases, household  necessities, buying a lulav and  etrog, moving, helping a senior family member and a host of other reasons.  So the question here was not whether people were following the restriction but which of the many exceptions they could quickly come up with if stopped by the police at a roadblock.  Failure to come up with a legitimate reason quickly enough could result in a significant  fine.

Schools also opened up from JK to grade 6 across the country, even in "red" areas.  It seems unlikely that this will last for more than a week or two but I guess we will see.  The government opted to open everywhere rather than selectively for fear of acting in discriminatory fashion.  Many of the "red zones" are ultra-Orthodox ("Haredi") areas and the government did  not want to upset the Haredi members of its coalition.  So schools opened up everywhere.  This is likely to lead to a widespread increase in the infection rate which is now running at about 2,000 new infections per day.

Despite these rules limiting openings to elementary schools, the Haredim announced that they would open everything up, through grade 12 as well as Yeshivas for post-grade 12 age students.  They simply announced that they would not follow the rules and so far, the government has not taken any  official action to close these institutions.  We essentially have a "state within a state" in many parts of the country.

Mass demonstrations against the Prime Minister also resumed this week.  There were large scale  demonstrations near the official Prime Minister's residence on Saturday night as well as in Tel-Aviv. While many  of the protesters have been wearing masks, they certainly do not appear to be following social  distancing rules.  Last night, there were several accounts of violent attacks from pro-Netanyahu anti-protesters who showed up at the demonstrations to disrupt and beat anti-Netanyahu protesters.  As  of the writing of this blog, I have no concrete information about who is organizing the counterdemonstrations.  Hmmm....

I should mention, coincidentally of course, that one of Netanyahu's most senior cabinet ministers, Miki Zohar, the Deputy Prime Minister was the subject of a frightening radio interview this week.  Earlier in the week, some audio recordings had been mysteriously released.  The recordings contained discussions with the sitting Attorney General of Israel, Avihai Mandelblit, from many years earlier   The recordings had nothing to do with the current criminal charges against Netanyahu.  In the interview broadcast this week - Zohar threatened that several additional recordings would be  released and there would be an "earthquake of information" released about the current Attorney General if he did not drop all charges against Netanyahu.  When asked if he was making a threat he said "no I'm  making  a promise."   Now I may not be a criminal lawyer, but that certainly sounded like about as open and shut a  case of blackmail/extortion as one could possibly dream up.

In other news, how about some political polls?

On the home front, some new Israeli polls have shown a sudden and  dramatic drop in support  for  Netanyahu.  Current polls put him at about 27 seats (he currently as 36) and put Naftali Bennett at 24.  Overall, the right in Israel is still in position to win an election and form a government.  But there are suddenly options that this would be a different kind of government with substantially reduced power for Netanyahu.  In fact, there are options for a government to be formed that would exclude Netanyahu and the Likud party.  This is the first poll in several years that has shown that  as a real possibility.  At the same time, there is no election currently scheduled and we do not know when one will be called.  So it is all very hypothetical.  I remain skeptical but there are at least some signs that the landscape here may be changing.

In another poll, Israelis were asked about the upcoming U.S. election.  Apparently, 73% of Israelis indicated that they would  prefer Trump.   Among Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox Israelis, the percentage  swelled to over 90%.  But when Israelis who self-identified as "centrists" or "leftists" were asked, they favoured Biden 55-45%.  So if the President loses on November 3, 2020 as some now expect, he might consider coming to Israel.   After all, Trump just said at a rally last week that he might "leave the country" if he  loses the election.  Maybe if he  loses, he will pardon himself and  come build a new golf course and hotel  complex  near Netanyahu's home in Caesarea.  The challenge for  Netanyahu is that unlike Trump he can't grant himself a pardon.   If Netanyahu loses the next Israeli election, he may have to spend a great deal of time somewhere other than on one of Trump's  golf  courses.   Say, a more confined location.

The weather  is still quite nice here.  So now that  national parks have opened up, a trip to one of them one day this week sounds like a really attractive idea.   We are anxiously awaiting the start of strawberry season over the next few weeks.  As you may know, fruit and vegetables are very seasonal and very local here.  The strawberries are fantastic but it is a fleeting season, lasting from  November through April, or maybe May.  But there are several different types of strawberries - juicy, very sweet and  quite unlike others that I have had, even  at the peak of the farmer's market in mid-summer in Toronto.  Jerusalem Artichokes (See photo above) are now in season so I tried making some soup this week with  a  bunch  of them and it was fantastic.  Recipes available on request.  And there are also some enormous and delicious mangos in season.  Or, of course, you can pick up a $25 pineapple...(ouch!).  

To round  out things, shopping malls, most other "non-essential" stores and restaurants, including outdoor patios, all remain closed even though the airport has reopened.  Travellers to Israel are required to quarantine for 2 weeks unless they are coming from "green countries."  But only travellers holding citizenship or having certain categories of family in Israel can enter the country in any event - and then only with advance permission.  That being said, some countries are  apparently willing to accept Israeli tourists - so there are flights leaving Israel for leisure purposes to Greece, Bulgaria and some other destinations.  No plans to join any of these flights any time soon.

Wishing everyone a wonderful week and the best of health.

October 2020 Update

We are now in the midst of the holiday of Sukkot - also known as "the time of our  happiness," the "holiday of  booths," and the time for travelling and trips abroad for many Israelis.  Not this year, generally.  At least not the travelling part.  Israel is in the midst of a nation-wide shut-down of sorts so travelling is fairly limited.  But Sukkot (booths) are still everywhere - and people are celebrating the holiday.  

It has been a very strange and unusual holiday season though that is certainly  not unique to Israel, unfortunately.   The interesting question is how this will change things in a long term way.  In so many respects.  But that could  really be the subject of a very long blog.  Maybe the next one.  This one will be a bit more anecdotal I think.  I'll cover some personal reflections about the holidays, Israel's current Covid-19 situation, the Israeli government and anything else that springs to mind before the end of these comments.

The Holy Days - Some Personal Reflections

Rosh Hashana came and went.  One initiative in Israel was to have people with Shofars walking  around (on the  second day of Rosh Hashanah, the Sunday) and blowing their shofars so that people could get the chance to hear them.  In Ra'anana, the City set up various points around the city where there would be shofar blowing at different times.  Another  initiative was to tell people to go out onto their front lawns, their balconies or their backyards and blow  their shofars at 11 a.m.  I took part in this one - and noticed at least one neighbour enjoying my attempts to sound like a real shofar blower.  I guess I have another year to practice.   Makes me wish that I had learned to play the trumpet in school instead of the saxophone.  

In any event, it was just our immediate family and we opted for a service  in the house rather than joining the various zoom options or finding an outdoor service that was following the rules.  But we were lucky to have each other and although we missed the rest of our families, it was still a meaningful New Year commemoration.

For  Yom Kippur, we spent a fair bit of time discussing what to do.  We usually run  a small service in Ra'anana, a satellite service for Kehilla Hod v'Hadar (which is in K'far Saba).   In the past, we have not held Kol Nidrei here but have walked to K'far Saba.  We usually then have Shacharit, Mussaf, Minhah and  Neilah in Ra'anana.  

This year, we decided to hold the tefillot outdoors in one of the member family's backyard.  It was too hot to hold a morning service there but we ran a Kol Nidrei service and Minhah/Neilah outside.  We  were all spaced apart, wearing masks and outside.  Just between 11-13 of us.  I think it was my first time leading Kol Nidrei in about 35 years.  So there was a fair bit to prepare.  Neilah was a bit easier since I have been leading it for the past 6 or 7 years I think.  But it worked out  nicely and I am glad we were able to hold this service.

Next up came Sukkot.  We put up our Sukkah - and once again - it was just our immediate family  having meals inside.  The Israeli government has imposed a 500 shekel fine for "attending a meal in a non-family member's sukkah" (defined as someone who doesn't live in the same home).  But I think the fine is really viewed as a 500 shekel fine for those who weren't quick enough (or pre-organized enough) to have a reasonable excuse, when asked, to avoid the fine.  In any case, we have waved the lulav (the palm branch) and the Etrog (the Citron), sat in the Sukkah and enjoyed some nice wine.  After all, it is still the time of "our happiness" and the wine helps.  

The Closure, Covid-19 and Israel

Back to the closure.  The Israeli government has instituted a form of closure - but it is certainly not "hermetic."  In fact, it probably has more holes than a  hunk of swiss cheese.  So police have set  up road blocks all over the place.  But they are only stopping random cars - and then there is a very long list of exceptions to the closure.  The exceptions include:

- going out to buy a lulav and etrog

-going out to perform the mitzvah of Kapparot (until the end of Sukkot) (i.e. swinging a chicken over your head to get rid of your sins;

-buying groceries, essential household goods, medicine etc.,

-exercising (on your own or with a family member from the same house);

- demonstrating (against or for) the government (within 1 km of your house) (I haven't seen too many demonstrating in favour of the current government);

- attending a synagogue service (outdoors, with less than 25 people, within 1 km of your home);

The list goes on and on.  This is just to provide a bit of flavour.  

Overall, there is a sense here in Israel that Covid-19 is really out of control.  We reached close to 10,000 new cases a day last week, in the aftermath of Rosh Hashanah.  We have seen an increasingly high number of seriously ill patients and  a growing number  of fatalities.  Although the government has now imposed a closure as a way to try to deal with it - it is not a well- planned or well thought out response to the pandemic.  It is not being accompanied by steps to assist businesses, business owners and workers that will enable them to manage the economic side of the crisis.  It is being applied universally, all over the country, even though there are clearly pockets of high infection rate areas that probably warrant a different approach from those areas in which the infection rate is low.  It is unclear how this will all play out or what steps the  government will take to try and address the situation.  But we know that the virus can spread at exponential rates.  10,000 new infections per day is quite frightening and is  bound to lead to a great deal of stress on the health care system in Israel, the hospitals and support  systems across the country.  

The Current Israeli Government   

As you may know, the current Israeli government is a coalition government made up of opposing parties, generally quite hostile to each other,  who have been unable to follow the coalition agreement that they put  together themselves.  So, for example, the parties signed an agreement that they would pass a two year budget as one of the first items of business.  But Netanyahu reneged and insisted on a one-year budget only (which would be a budget for the period Jan 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020).  Blue and White continued to insist on a two year  budget.  A stalemate resulted and the decision was put off for two or three months.  As a result, there is no budget for the current year in place.  The government is running on "interim budget measures."  

Netanyahu is looking for an opportunity to pull the plug on this current government and  call an election.  He is hoping that he will be able to piece together a 61+ seat right wing government and get retroactive immunity for himself to clear him of the various criminal charges that he is now facing.  But polls have shown that Netanyahu is losing some support - to the "Yamina" (Real Right) party of Naftali Bennett.  Netanyahu is concerned that he will lose negotiating power and that he may not be able to get the immunity bill or the government that he wants.  So he has now become hesitant to call an election. We therefore have somewhat of a stalemated government that cannot agree on steps to take but is also reluctant to call another election.  This cannot continue for too long.  It is likely that the government will soon crumble and a new election will be announced - perhaps in December or January.

Meanwhile, there are protesters across Israel, spread out and following the new rules of protesting within  1 km of  their  homes.  For the most part, these protests have not been violent and have simply been made up of a wide range of citizens protesting against various aspects  of the operation of this current government under Netanyahu's stewardship.  That was  not  entirely the case on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv, where police on horses and in full riot gear used quite a bit of force to disperse a largely non-violent group of protesters.  

A primary concern is that a Prime Minister facing a range of criminal charges, is trying to make various decisions that could directly impact on his own situation.  For example, which judges to appoint in the courts, which civilian appointments (chief of police) and what to  close versus what to leave open across the country.  During the first closure, in March/April, one of Netanyahu's first steps was to close the courts while leaving many other places open - ostensibly so that he would not have to show up for an impending court appearance.

Many  other  people are protesting the lack of an economic plan, the impact of a closure on so many people without proper support and  the general perception that decisions are being made for political reasons  primarily rather than reasons based on epidemiological necessity or medical and scientific evidence and requirements.

At the same time and to be fair, it is unclear that this large number of protesters will be able to change the political results at the ballot box whenever the next election is held.  In other words, it may well be that they are made up of a large and  vocal minority.  That remains to be seen.

Schadenfreude

I must conclude this post with a comment on Schadenfreude.  

In Israel, I would not say that mask wearing and physical distancing has been viewed as a "left-wing plot" or confined to left segments of society.  In fact, Netanyahu himself has been very clear about wearing a mask,   proper steps to distance himself from others and urging Israelis to follow suggested steps to deal with the virus.  Of course some  of his ministers have not always gone along and  have viewed themselves having a special exemption from the rules that everyone else is urged to follow.  But it is not necessarily a "right-left" fault line. 

In fact one of his ministers is  now the subject of a great deal of press coverage.  Minister Gila Gamliel went to a shul  for Yom Kippur with her father in law - who was under a quarantine order due to exposure to the virus.  Some 28 people who attended services at that shul have now been diagnosed as having the virus.  There are many other similar stories.

As the virus spread in Israel, many in the ultra-Orthodox community refused to close synagogues, wear masks, follow physical distancing guidelines or close learning institutions.  One of the leading ultra-Orthodox rabbis of the Lithuanian ultra-orthodox community, Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky had insisted back in March that synagogues and yeshivas remain open since "cancelling Torah study is more dangerous than the virus."  He is later reported to have told his followers  not to get tested - since positive results would lead to a shut down of their institutions.  In any event, at age 92, he has now been diagnosed with Covid-19 although his condition is apparently improving.   According  to at least one report last week,  more than 40% of all cases of covid-19 are in the ultra-orthodox community.   Rabbi Kanievsky eventually agreed to issue a press release urging followers to adhere to guidelines.  But the virus is rampant  now in his community.

Likewise, of course, it is perhaps not surprising that President Trump has also contracted the virus.  He has held countless rallies  with unmasked supporters, refused (for the most part) to wear a mask himself and belittled those  who are taking the virus seriously.  When the Israeli  delegation flew to Washington to sign a peace deal with the UAE, Trump insisted that the delegation members not wear masks at the ceremony.  There was a heated negotiation but the Israelis largely gave in with some exceptions.  

Similarly, at Trump's Supreme Court nomination announcement last Saturday, the attendees did not wear masks or follow any physical distancing guidelines.  Is it at all surprising that Trump and  so many of his colleagues have been infected?  While we can all hope for the complete and  full recovery of the  President, I think we can also all hope (and pray) that the President will change his tune and start urging Americans to follow some common sense guidelines to minimize their chances of getting infected.  Maybe instead of attacking Biden for wearing a "huge mask," he'll decide to start wearing one  himself.  Regularly.  Assuming he recovers.

Sports Comment

September began with some  cautious optimism on my part cheering for some Toronto  teams.  The Raptors, Maple Leafs and Blue  Jays all had a shot to the make the playoffs and I was hoping for an interesting playoff season.   The Maple Leafs and Blue Jays exited with barely a whimper.  This was especially disappointing for the hockey team which had so much talent and so much promise.  But another year is in the books, which means that Toronto has  now gone 53  years without winning a hockey championship.  Ouch.

The Raptors were hoping to repeat their feat of  winning the NBA championship but without their superstar from last year Kawhi Leonard.  For the Raptors, it was also a premature and disappointing exit.

So what is a Toronto sports fan to do?  Well, the remaining team of interest - which has never one a championship - is the Buffalo Bills (okay, not Toronto but close  enough).   The  Bills are off to a 4-0 start this year and have an excellent young quarterback.  So that is very exciting.  Worth staying up for here in Israel.

Finally - and I think I got this wrong in an earlier blog - the Israel national soccer (football) team will play Scotland on October 8th for a chance to get to the delayed 2020 Euro championship.  If Israel beats Scotland, it will have to play the winner of a Norway-Serbia match on November 12th.  So that match will be this coming Thursday - and it really will be one of the biggest soccer matches for the Israeli side in many years.  I am not normally a huge soccer fan - but this will be an exciting event to watch.

I wish everyone a Chag Sameach (Happy holiday) and Mo'adim L'Simchah (Enjoy these times joy) and a home that the coming year brings us much better news from all across the world.  Keep in touch!

The "Abraham Accords" - Are We Any Closer to Middle East Peace?"

We watched the signing of the "Abraham Accords" yesterday with interest.  It was a big deal for Israel.  After all, any time that Israel can sign peace treaties (okay, normalization treaties) with other Arab countries, that is bound to be a big deal.  The deal and the process have elicited some very polarized reactions so I thought it would be worthwhile to provide a  few comments about this  process.

First of all, I think it is fair to acknowledge that, however we got here, this type  of deal is a favourable and beneficial deal for most players in the region.  Although it may be characterized primarily  as an "arms deal" between the U.S. and the UAE wherein the U.S. will now sell F-35s and other weaponry to the UAE, there is more to it than that.  The UAE and Israel have begun to negotiate deals and arrangements in a wide range of areas including technology, medicine, energy, tourism and, yes, defence.  This type of relationship, if it proceeds, will lead to a much warmer peace than Israel has with Egypt or  Jordan.  If it takes root and develops, it may well lead to a very different Middle East.  Other countries may come along and the peace between Israel and Egypt may develop further.   Israelis may soon find  themselves  visiting more Arab  countries regularly and vice-versa and that is exciting.

At the signing ceremony yesterday, including the accompanying press conferences, President Trump stated that he expected "5 or 6 other countries" to come along very soon.  Apparently, after the press conference he upped this to "7 to 9."   Now, I don't really think, given the track record, that anyone has any great reason to believe very much of what this president promises.  Who knows what these other countries are demanding in the negotiations?   Or how far apart they really are?  Or whether any of these deals can really be closed?  But I will say this - if Israel were to be able to enter deals with 5 or 6 other countries - including some large and significant ones - that would have to be considered a huge step towards Middle East  peace and a brighter future for the whole region.  So far, the names I have heard mentioned include Oman, Sudan, Morocco, Lebanon, and, ultimately, Saudi Arabia.  It would certainly be a huge credit to Trump and Kushner if they were able to close most or all of these deals.

If the other countries do not fall into line as expected, yesterday's  deal may not amount to very much and  may not change much in the region.  Some indications from yesterday's proceedings support a pessimistic view about the  whole ordeal.   Neither Bahrain nor the UAE brought their heads of state.  Instead, each side brought their foreign ministers (secretaries of state, if you will).  For Israel, the Foreign Minister, Gabi Ashkenazi (part of the Blue and White wing of the governing coalition) was left at home and did not attend with Prime Minister Netanyahu.  In fact, press reports here indicate that he wasn't even aware of the contents of the deal.  Neither the Israeli cabinet nor the Israeli Knesset have yet voted to approve the deal and it is unclear that anyone, other than Netanyahu, is aware of its full contents.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and the representatives from the UAE and Bahrain all spoke glowingly about President Trump.  That seems to have been one of the  key terms of the deal.  In fact, Netanyahu did not even acknowledge the foreign representatives from the UAE and Bahrain until later in his speech.  He did  not speak about plans for Israel and the UAE.  One might have thought he could  have publicly invited the UAE and Bahrain leaders to visit Israel during this speech or he could have reviewed some of the hopes and aspirations that citizens of each country might have.  But instead, the focus was on Netanyahu himself as well as Trump.  It is a shame that Netanyahu seems so willing to go  along with turning Israel into a partisan issue in United States politics.  I am not convinced that this is a policy that is in Israel's interests  long term, especially if Trump should lose the  November election.

For their part, the representatives of the UAE and Bahrain also went along with the cue to lavish praise upon President Trump,  repeatedly.  All that was missing was  an official ring-kissing procession.   They both said little about Israel but called for peace across the Middle East.  The Bahraini representative called for a "just  resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian" conflict but really did not discuss what was so great about this particular deal for Bahrain and Israel respectively.  The ceremony, overall, had the feel of a campaign rally for Trump and Netanyahu rather than a key diplomatic event.

Critics of the deal and of the Trump-Kushner approach to the Middle East  have argued that Trump has titled U.S. policy towards Israel and has effectively taken positions that Bibi himself would have put forward.  In some cases, this  is fair comment.  the Trump administration has cut aid to the Palestinians, has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and has recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.  The Trump administration has also put together a "Deal of the Century" proposal for peace between Israel and the Palestinians without Palestinian involvement.  And  yes, it is a fairly one-sided document.

That being said, the Trump-Kushner proposal, does call for an independent Palestinian State, something rejected  by Netanyahu,  his Likud party and the various parties to the right of Likud in the  Knesset.  It does not include all of the territory that the Palestinians would like and  it does  not include a right of return to Israel for the many Palestinian refugees.  But it does include territorial compromise by Israel and  it is a negotiable plan rather than the a bottom line.  It is unclear whether there would be any negotiations regarding Jerusalem.

It is true that  this approach tilts towards Israel.  But it has also true that previous plans including  the Arab League Plan and the Clinton plan tilted, almost  completely, to the  Palestinian side, especially the Arab League Plan which called for a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders including  the Old City.  Even where Israeli leaders were willing to go along with a plan that included most of these terms (i.e. the Clinton plan in 2000) that was not acceptable to the Palestinians.  I  do think that a Clinton-type plan left the station shortly after Arafat rejected it.  Especially after political changes in Israel that were probably linked, to some extent, to the rejectionist approach of the Palestinians at the time.

For years the surrounding Arab countries have  been willing to support Palestinian intransigence by characterizing Israel as the main enemy and  threat in the  region and refusing to enter into peace and  normalization deals with Israel - for fear of having been viewed as  betraying the Palestinian cause.  But over the course of the past 53 years since the 1967 war and 72 years since the establishment of the State of Israel, this has been a failing policy.  It has led to  a great deal of war and violence, terrorism, perennial refugee camps and has helped bolster dictatorial regimes in the region who have  used the Palestinian cause to suppress their own populations and  downplay  other criticism about how their countries are run.  And it really hasn't brought the Palestinians any closer to their own state.

The current approach led by Trump and  Kushner marks a  significant departure from this failed policy.  On the  one hand, the U.S. has tilted towards Israel in some areas, much to the chagrin of the EU, the "progressive wing" of the Democratic Party, Turkey, Iran and some other countries.  On the other hand, the goal of the policy seems to be to  bring in other Arab nations, to become friends and allies of Israel - but also to help work towards a resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict in a way that is more realistic. 

It is noteworthy that Netanyahu has called the deals with the UAE and Bahrain "deals from strength" that trade "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace."  But Netanyahu is being disingenuous.  As  part of these deals, Israel has agreed to refrain from unilaterally annexing any of the disputed territories and has also agreed not to oppose a U.S. decision to sell the UAE F-35s.   

The Crown Prince of the UAE states that he believed that the UAE could be in a much better position to assist with the Israeli -Palestinian conflict if it were viewed with some measure of trust and  friendship by Israel.  The UAE and Israel have taken steps  to build that relationship since as early as 2010.  But this does mark  a new  phase - and concurrently, a potentially new level of influence for the UAE in its dealings with Israel.  By including a requirement that  Israel abandon any proposal  to unilaterally annex land, some of which is earmarked for a future Palestinian state, the UAE has signified that it will take an active role in trying to bring about a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

That brings us to the current situation.  There are really a few very different routes that  this process may now take.

If Trump and Kushner are correct that this process has the potential to bring about a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians - I believe that Saudi Arabia would be the key turning point.  Saudi Arabia may well have the clout to insist that it will only sign a full peace deal with Israel if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved.  

In this scenario, a proposal or  plan may be developed that is somewhere between the Trump-Kushner plan and the Clinton Plan.  It would result in the formation of a Palestinian State and a full resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian  conflict.  The problem is that it may not be acceptable, initially, to the Palestinians or even the Israelis.  But here the hope would be that the combination of the support  of a large number of other Arab countries, financial, economic and other  assistance for the Palestinians would leave the Palestinians with no other real alternatives.

On the other side of the equation, Netanyahu has actively campaigned against the creation of a Palestinian state and has suggested that he opposes this part of the Trump-Kushner plan.  He stated this repeatedly during the last Israeli election campaign.  But at some  point, if pushed by Trump and  Kushner - and with the possibility of having  diplomatic relations, even  warm ones, with a large number of countries in the Middle East, Israel may also have no other real alternative but to accept the deal.

On the other hand, no matter what Trump, Kushner or Netanyahu do, there will continue to be rejectionists in the Middle East.   Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Hezbollah and Hamas have all registered their strong opposition to this approach and the Palestinian Authority has called the UAE and Bahrain "back stabbers."  If the other Middle Eastern countries will not go along with the  Trump-Kushner approach and if the PA decides to  turn to violence as its response (as it has many times in the past), an Israeli-Palestinian deal may be as far off as it has ever been.

If, in November, Trump is re-elected, he may decide to pressure Israel to accept a plan that he can sell to the other Arab countries - and ultimately try to use those countries to get the Palestinians to agree  as well.  There are a lot of "ifs"  here and Trump is very unpredictable.  And, of course, there is a still a good chance that he will not be re-elected.

If Biden is elected, he will have a difficult decision to make.  If he takes the Obama approach to the Middle East, that would mean trying to open up negotiations with Iran immediately, restoring funding to the Palestinians unconditionally and cooling the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and  others.  This may effectively end the current track of pushing for peace deals between Israel and neighbouring countries as a first step  towards peace.

But if  Biden is elected and  he can be convinced that some genuine progress has been made  - and the U.S. is close to brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and  Israel (that also involves an Israel-Palestinian deal), Biden might even continue a version of this path.  He  will almost certainly restore funding to the Palestinians either way and try to re-open dialogue with the PA.  But he might not tilt U.S. policy back to where it was under Obama.

Overall, I think this is all a great opportunity for Israel.  The Palestinians rejected the Clinton plan in 2000 and lost what was probably the best proposal they might ever get from Israel.  They probably regret having done so even if they will not publicly admit it.  At this juncture, if Israel could reach a deal with the Palestinians, along the  lines of what has been proposed by Trump and  Kushner, it would probably be about the best deal Israel could hope to get even if the final deal involves additional Israeli concessions.  If it is a deal that would also involve full peace deals with most of the  surrounding Arab countries, it would be an opportunity that Israel would probably not want to pass up.  

While President Obama and Netanyahu had a great deal of public  quarrels, the U.S.-Israel relationship remained very strong throughout  Obama's presidency.  This was the case despite some of the steps taken by Obama over the course of his presidency, especially his support for anti-Israel UN resolutions at the very end of his second term and the dispute with Israel over the wisdom of the Iranian nuclear deal.  But at the same time, throughout the  Obama presidency, the U.S. continued to cooperate with Israel fully in  a wide range of technological, military, economic and  other areas despite the often successful efforts of Netanyahu to portray the situation otherwise.  President Obama did not take any significant steps to try and impose a deal on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

If Biden is elected, he may well look at all aspects of the Obama-Netanyahu relationship and find a way to do things a bit differently.  He  may want to restore the public perception of the U.S.-Israel relationship as one that is non-partisan even while repairing the U.S. relationship with the Palestinians.  He will have a challenging  time with Netanyahu in this regard but if the ultimate result is comprehensive peace between Israel and the Palestinians with most other Arab countries in agreement - it may make sense to continue a version of the Trump-Kushner approach even if a Biden vision is viewed as being a bit more balanced.  

September 2020 Blog: What's New In Israel (Limited Survey)

We are quickly approaching the High Holy days - Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur - and I haven't written anything in about two months.  So I figured that it was about time to provide some  comments - not necessarily connected  about things going on here in Israel.  I have actually been here for quite a stretch now - given Covid-19 - but I have still been quite busy professionally.  After all, my line of work is a busy one these days.  So this blog will be a bit of a stream of consciousness - about a few different topics.  We'll see how that  works out.

Covid-19

As you may know, Israel was one of the early leaders in keeping a lid on Covid-19.   The country was virtually shut down for a period of time in March/April - including airports, malls and most everything else commercially other than essential services.  Israel managed to get the number of new Covid cases down to less than 10 a day.  It looked like the virus would disappear.

But the government did not accompany that closure with a support plan for affected businesses or furloughed employees (although many employees were eligible to collect Employment Insurance and will now be able to do so until June 2021). It was a quick, complete and probably half-baked closure plan.  Soon enough, many  sectors of the economy tanked and  the pressure on the  Israeli government to reopen was tremendous.  As a result, the government  (which itself was in quite a bit of political  turmoil) implemented an equally half-baked re-opening plan and opened just about everything very quickly.  Before you could say "Russian vaccine," there were 500 people at weddings and planeloads of infected people arriving on international flights, primarily from the U.S.  The numbers began to climb rapidly.  But the government had expended its political capital on its initial closure plan - and on its haphazard opening plan.  I think it is  fair to say that it lost the public trust (if it ever really had it).  The numbers climbed drastically and Israel has now hit numbers in the range of 3,000 new infections a day, while at the same time having reduced the number of tests.  The government is internally divided and has not really come up with any plan to combat the every increasing spread of the virus.  

The latest plan announced on Wednesday night is an impending closure of 30 "red" cities in Israel - due to come into effect on Monday.  (Heaven forbid you should  implement it immediately - that would interfere with the enjoyment of Shabbat - or in the case of the Arab towns and cities - the enjoyment of Friday...).  As of the writing of this blog, I don't think anyone can assume that the proposed closure will definitely go ahead.  We may not know for sure until Sunday night. But stay tuned.

The Chaggim / Yamim  Nora'im

As mentioned, the Holy Day season is quickly approaching.  Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur are only weeks away.  This is the time of year when synagogues are usually packed with wall to wall worshippers.  If the infection rate for Covid-19 is still this high, the Holydays could be real  "super-spreader" events and we could see the numbers rise to tens of thousands of new infections a day.  The Israeli government is torn in trying to figure out how to deal with this.

On the one hand, the scientific advisors to the government, including the special "Covid-19 Project Manager" are urging the government to shut down or  dramatically limit synagogues to no more than 10 or 20 worshippers and  to hold services outside as much as possible.  But the current Israeli government includes a large number of ultra-religious members of Knesset.  They are urging the government to permit full worship in synagogues.  I guess it is fair to say that many of them figure that whether or not they get the virus is a decision made from  above, rather than one affected by actions they might take here on earth.   And given the general lack of trust that the Israeli government has engendered through its earlier mishandling of closures and openings, I would imagine that the  ultra-orthodox community will  simply disregard any government orders that affect worship for the High Holydays.

Even for those of us who are more moderate in our approach to observance, figuring out the Holydays is a real challenge.  Our synagogue is planning to conduct a  few different services - some inside and some outside to keep the number of worshippers really limited - and to allow for physical distancing.  But we have still been wrestling with whether it sounds safe to go.  We normally play a significant role in these tefillot, our family reads from the Torah (all three of our "children" - they can't really be called "children" now), and participates in leading the services.  I have lead Musaf on Rosh Hashanah and for other services.  So I guess we have a short window to decide what to do.

For Yom Kippur, we  usually run a satellite service in Ra'anana.  Sometimes it has even been at our house, though the past few years, we have used the facilities of another synagogue in Ra'anana.  But this year, we have a range of opinions and issues.   How to keep the numbers down to 20, where to hold the services and other issues.  Things to deal with in the coming weeks  I guess.  But some of this falls on yours truly as one of the organizers of these  services.   So something to think about in the coming weeks (while working on preparations for leading Kol Nidrei and Neilah).  

The Peace Deal with the UAE

Israelis are quite happy with the recent announcement that Israel would establish full diplomatic relations with the UAE.   What's not to like?  Israel has apparently been working on relations  with the  UAE going back to 2010.  There have been many unreported exchanges so for some it is not a surprise.

Interestingly, the current Israeli government did not put the proposed peace deal to a vote in the Knesset or even in its own cabinet.  In fact, Netanyahu apparently kept his Blue and White coalition partners in the dark about the deal.

It certainly looks like the terms of the deal included an agreement by the U.S. to sell F-35s to the  UAE,  an agreement by Israel to cancel its proposed unilateral annexation of parts of the disputed territories and, in exchange, full diplomatic relations including active tourism, scientific, academic and cultural exchanges and ramped up economic trade.   I doubt that  the Israeli government would have opposed the deal although, in a democracy, the  deal probably should have been presented to the government for approval.

As you know, President Trump sent Secretary of State Pompeo on a whirlwind tour of other countries in the Middle East to try and convince them follow the UAE.  Israel is hoping to reach peace deals with Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, Morocco and, eventually, Saudi Arabia.  But these  countries apparently made it clear that they will only agree to peace with Israel if there is a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.  Both Netanyahu  and Trump seem to be helping each other and trying to bolster their respective electoral prospects even though a new election has not yet  been announced in Israel.  I can imagine that if Israel were to announce peace deals with four or five countries between now and November, even without resolving the Palestinian issue, this would still give Trump and Netanyahu significant  boosts.  On the other hand, if the UAE  is the only country to  agree, the deal may not affect the political landscape in either place.

Meanwhile, many Israelis are already planning their flights to Dubai.   With permission to fly over Saudi Arabia having been granted, the flight will take only 3 1/2 hours.  UAE hotels have already announced that they are planning to offer Kosher food.   And the UAE is looking to support the opening of  a number of synagogues.  This is all very exciting.  If Israel could find a way to reach peace deals like this with a number of other countries in the region, the world would really start to look like a better place.

In the meantime, the UAE may decide to take a more active role in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.  Perhaps the Palestinians will take a new look at their "bottom line" demands as they realize that more and more countries in the region are about  to make peace with Israel.   Likewise, the Israeli government may be willing to make some concessions  if the concessions are  tied to a broader Middle Eastern peace agreement.  The  obstacles today, aside from the Palestinian Authority, seem to be Turkey, Iran, Syria and perhaps Qatar along with Hezbollah, Hamas and other extremist movements.  One never knows what the future brings but there is reason  to believe that, overall, the UAE deal is a hopeful development and the first of many steps to come.

The Israeli Government

The current Israeli government is a very unstable one - made up of a coalition of various political enemies.  Every few weeks, there is a threat the government will fall and new elections will be called.  The latest threat came as a result of the budget.  Netanyahu's Likud party had signed a deal calling for a two-year budget as part of the coalition agreement that it entered into with the Blue and White party.  But, Netanyahu soon saw that his political support was rising after he eviscerated the Blue and White party in coalition negotiations.  He is still hopeful that he can win a new election outright and get a "retroactive immunity deal" that would eliminate his current ongoing criminal proceedings.  He became  worried that a two year budget might mean no new elections for two years.  So he announced that "circumstances had changed" and the government needed a budget for one year only (just until the end of 2020).   Of  course the Blue and White party called foul and claimed that this was a violation of the coalition deal.  It certainly was.  But Netanyahu pressed ahead.  In the end, Blue and White partially conceded and the parties agreed that they would put off  deciding anything for another two months.  So the Israeli government carries on without a budget and without any immediate plans to implement one.  And no election will be called for at least the next two months. Some commentators have ruminated that Trump asked Netanyahu to hold off on having another election until after the U.S. elections in November.  But I haven't seen anything concrete to back up that rumour.  

Either way, we have no budget, an ongoing coalition made up of political enemies and no definitive plans to do anything.  But no plans to change these circumstances.  Go figure.  

Some Sports Comments

I couldn't let this blog pass without commenting  on the Leafs  and the  Raptors.  Watching North American sports is a bit challenging in Israel for a few reasons.   The games aren't shown on most channels and with the time difference, it can mean watching big games from 2 to 5 a.m.  

But  some of us here were up to the task, especially since I have no real interest in watching Israeli soccer or basketball.  Of course it  was tremendously disappointing to watch the  Toronto  Maple Leafs make their annual early exit.  For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about - or don't really care - the Toronto Maple Leafs have not won an NHL ice hockey  championship since 1967.  So being a fan of the Leafs is a recurrently painful undertaking.  

The Toronto Raptors, on the other hand, are the defending world champions, having won their first NBA basketball championship last year.  Although this year they are now without their former team superstar Kawhi  Leonard, who signed as  free  agent to go play for the LA Clippers.  This  year, the Raptors won their first round of their title defence but were  losing 2-0 in the second round to the Boston Celtics.  Last  night,  we had the good fortune of watching the Raptors win by one point with no time on the clock and a three-point buzzer beater.  Very exciting.   So they are still alive.

In case you are wondering, we are  using  a Virtual Private Network to be able to watch Canadian channels....Israeli channel 59 (On Yes) shows some games  but certainly not all of them.  Previously we subscribed to Fox  Sports Israel.  But it stopped broadcasting in Israel last year.  So watching NHL, NBA and NFL games in Israel has become an even bigger challenge.

In other sports news, football news to be exact, the Israeli national team is playing against Scotland tonight in a playoff game that could see Israel make it into the next Euro championship.  It is one of the most meaningful soccer games that  the Israeli national team has played in many years.  If they win tonight, they have game on Monday night that will decide whether or  not they advance.  The problem of course is that tonight's game conflicts with Shabbat...

Final Comments

It has been unseasonably hot here the past few days - mid to upper 30s C (high 90s for those of you on the F scale).  When you combine that level of heat with a mask - it becomes very uncomfortable to be outside for very long.  Though we can get to the beach for an early morning walk in less than 15 minutes and at that time of day, it is still very nice.  We are hoping to do something fun over the Labour Day Weekend.  (It's not really Labour Day or even a long weekend here in Israel, but since my schedule is a Canadian work  schedule, we might as well enjoy).

Shabbat Shalom to everyone  and all in the best in preparing for the coming holidays.  And enjoy the long weekend - the "last weekend of summer" in Canada and many parts of the U.S.  Here we probably have at least two more months of really nice weather coming up until we get that "horrible" winter weather - 15-20 C and occasional showers.  Best regards and stay in touch!