Sunday, October 18, 2020

Mid October 2020: Partial Opening After 2nd Wave in Israel


Israel began to reopen today after a month of extensive Covid-19 closures.  Not everything re-opened but the national parks and the beaches opened their doors.  It is probably fair to say that the  beaches were never really closed.  People were attending regularly and, for the most part, police were staying away.  There was an exception that permitted people to go to the beach (but not enter the water) for purposes of "exercising."  So where the police did happen to show up at the beach - groups of backgammon playing bong-smokers suddenly became super active - doing jumping jacks, push-ups and other exercises in the sand.  While the police officers watched and waited...

Another restriction that ended today prevented people from travelling more than  one  kilometer from their  homes.  Except for grocery shopping, drug store purchases, household  necessities, buying a lulav and  etrog, moving, helping a senior family member and a host of other reasons.  So the question here was not whether people were following the restriction but which of the many exceptions they could quickly come up with if stopped by the police at a roadblock.  Failure to come up with a legitimate reason quickly enough could result in a significant  fine.

Schools also opened up from JK to grade 6 across the country, even in "red" areas.  It seems unlikely that this will last for more than a week or two but I guess we will see.  The government opted to open everywhere rather than selectively for fear of acting in discriminatory fashion.  Many of the "red zones" are ultra-Orthodox ("Haredi") areas and the government did  not want to upset the Haredi members of its coalition.  So schools opened up everywhere.  This is likely to lead to a widespread increase in the infection rate which is now running at about 2,000 new infections per day.

Despite these rules limiting openings to elementary schools, the Haredim announced that they would open everything up, through grade 12 as well as Yeshivas for post-grade 12 age students.  They simply announced that they would not follow the rules and so far, the government has not taken any  official action to close these institutions.  We essentially have a "state within a state" in many parts of the country.

Mass demonstrations against the Prime Minister also resumed this week.  There were large scale  demonstrations near the official Prime Minister's residence on Saturday night as well as in Tel-Aviv. While many  of the protesters have been wearing masks, they certainly do not appear to be following social  distancing rules.  Last night, there were several accounts of violent attacks from pro-Netanyahu anti-protesters who showed up at the demonstrations to disrupt and beat anti-Netanyahu protesters.  As  of the writing of this blog, I have no concrete information about who is organizing the counterdemonstrations.  Hmmm....

I should mention, coincidentally of course, that one of Netanyahu's most senior cabinet ministers, Miki Zohar, the Deputy Prime Minister was the subject of a frightening radio interview this week.  Earlier in the week, some audio recordings had been mysteriously released.  The recordings contained discussions with the sitting Attorney General of Israel, Avihai Mandelblit, from many years earlier   The recordings had nothing to do with the current criminal charges against Netanyahu.  In the interview broadcast this week - Zohar threatened that several additional recordings would be  released and there would be an "earthquake of information" released about the current Attorney General if he did not drop all charges against Netanyahu.  When asked if he was making a threat he said "no I'm  making  a promise."   Now I may not be a criminal lawyer, but that certainly sounded like about as open and shut a  case of blackmail/extortion as one could possibly dream up.

In other news, how about some political polls?

On the home front, some new Israeli polls have shown a sudden and  dramatic drop in support  for  Netanyahu.  Current polls put him at about 27 seats (he currently as 36) and put Naftali Bennett at 24.  Overall, the right in Israel is still in position to win an election and form a government.  But there are suddenly options that this would be a different kind of government with substantially reduced power for Netanyahu.  In fact, there are options for a government to be formed that would exclude Netanyahu and the Likud party.  This is the first poll in several years that has shown that  as a real possibility.  At the same time, there is no election currently scheduled and we do not know when one will be called.  So it is all very hypothetical.  I remain skeptical but there are at least some signs that the landscape here may be changing.

In another poll, Israelis were asked about the upcoming U.S. election.  Apparently, 73% of Israelis indicated that they would  prefer Trump.   Among Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox Israelis, the percentage  swelled to over 90%.  But when Israelis who self-identified as "centrists" or "leftists" were asked, they favoured Biden 55-45%.  So if the President loses on November 3, 2020 as some now expect, he might consider coming to Israel.   After all, Trump just said at a rally last week that he might "leave the country" if he  loses the election.  Maybe if he  loses, he will pardon himself and  come build a new golf course and hotel  complex  near Netanyahu's home in Caesarea.  The challenge for  Netanyahu is that unlike Trump he can't grant himself a pardon.   If Netanyahu loses the next Israeli election, he may have to spend a great deal of time somewhere other than on one of Trump's  golf  courses.   Say, a more confined location.

The weather  is still quite nice here.  So now that  national parks have opened up, a trip to one of them one day this week sounds like a really attractive idea.   We are anxiously awaiting the start of strawberry season over the next few weeks.  As you may know, fruit and vegetables are very seasonal and very local here.  The strawberries are fantastic but it is a fleeting season, lasting from  November through April, or maybe May.  But there are several different types of strawberries - juicy, very sweet and  quite unlike others that I have had, even  at the peak of the farmer's market in mid-summer in Toronto.  Jerusalem Artichokes (See photo above) are now in season so I tried making some soup this week with  a  bunch  of them and it was fantastic.  Recipes available on request.  And there are also some enormous and delicious mangos in season.  Or, of course, you can pick up a $25 pineapple...(ouch!).  

To round  out things, shopping malls, most other "non-essential" stores and restaurants, including outdoor patios, all remain closed even though the airport has reopened.  Travellers to Israel are required to quarantine for 2 weeks unless they are coming from "green countries."  But only travellers holding citizenship or having certain categories of family in Israel can enter the country in any event - and then only with advance permission.  That being said, some countries are  apparently willing to accept Israeli tourists - so there are flights leaving Israel for leisure purposes to Greece, Bulgaria and some other destinations.  No plans to join any of these flights any time soon.

Wishing everyone a wonderful week and the best of health.



Monday, October 5, 2020

October 2020 Update

We are now in the midst of the holiday of Sukkot - also known as "the time of our  happiness," the "holiday of  booths," and the time for travelling and trips abroad for many Israelis.  Not this year, generally.  At least not the travelling part.  Israel is in the midst of a nation-wide shut-down of sorts so travelling is fairly limited.  But Sukkot (booths) are still everywhere - and people are celebrating the holiday.  

It has been a very strange and unusual holiday season though that is certainly  not unique to Israel, unfortunately.   The interesting question is how this will change things in a long term way.  In so many respects.  But that could  really be the subject of a very long blog.  Maybe the next one.  This one will be a bit more anecdotal I think.  I'll cover some personal reflections about the holidays, Israel's current Covid-19 situation, the Israeli government and anything else that springs to mind before the end of these comments.

The Holy Days - Some Personal Reflections

Rosh Hashana came and went.  One initiative in Israel was to have people with Shofars walking  around (on the  second day of Rosh Hashanah, the Sunday) and blowing their shofars so that people could get the chance to hear them.  In Ra'anana, the City set up various points around the city where there would be shofar blowing at different times.  Another  initiative was to tell people to go out onto their front lawns, their balconies or their backyards and blow  their shofars at 11 a.m.  I took part in this one - and noticed at least one neighbour enjoying my attempts to sound like a real shofar blower.  I guess I have another year to practice.   Makes me wish that I had learned to play the trumpet in school instead of the saxophone.  

In any event, it was just our immediate family and we opted for a service  in the house rather than joining the various zoom options or finding an outdoor service that was following the rules.  But we were lucky to have each other and although we missed the rest of our families, it was still a meaningful New Year commemoration.

For  Yom Kippur, we spent a fair bit of time discussing what to do.  We usually run  a small service in Ra'anana, a satellite service for Kehilla Hod v'Hadar (which is in K'far Saba).   In the past, we have not held Kol Nidrei here but have walked to K'far Saba.  We usually then have Shacharit, Mussaf, Minhah and  Neilah in Ra'anana.  

This year, we decided to hold the tefillot outdoors in one of the member family's backyard.  It was too hot to hold a morning service there but we ran a Kol Nidrei service and Minhah/Neilah outside.  We  were all spaced apart, wearing masks and outside.  Just between 11-13 of us.  I think it was my first time leading Kol Nidrei in about 35 years.  So there was a fair bit to prepare.  Neilah was a bit easier since I have been leading it for the past 6 or 7 years I think.  But it worked out  nicely and I am glad we were able to hold this service.

Next up came Sukkot.  We put up our Sukkah - and once again - it was just our immediate family  having meals inside.  The Israeli government has imposed a 500 shekel fine for "attending a meal in a non-family member's sukkah" (defined as someone who doesn't live in the same home).  But I think the fine is really viewed as a 500 shekel fine for those who weren't quick enough (or pre-organized enough) to have a reasonable excuse, when asked, to avoid the fine.  In any case, we have waved the lulav (the palm branch) and the Etrog (the Citron), sat in the Sukkah and enjoyed some nice wine.  After all, it is still the time of "our happiness" and the wine helps.  

The Closure, Covid-19 and Israel

Back to the closure.  The Israeli government has instituted a form of closure - but it is certainly not "hermetic."  In fact, it probably has more holes than a  hunk of swiss cheese.  So police have set  up road blocks all over the place.  But they are only stopping random cars - and then there is a very long list of exceptions to the closure.  The exceptions include:

- going out to buy a lulav and etrog

-going out to perform the mitzvah of Kapparot (until the end of Sukkot) (i.e. swinging a chicken over your head to get rid of your sins;

-buying groceries, essential household goods, medicine etc.,

-exercising (on your own or with a family member from the same house);

- demonstrating (against or for) the government (within 1 km of your house) (I haven't seen too many demonstrating in favour of the current government);

- attending a synagogue service (outdoors, with less than 25 people, within 1 km of your home);

The list goes on and on.  This is just to provide a bit of flavour.  

Overall, there is a sense here in Israel that Covid-19 is really out of control.  We reached close to 10,000 new cases a day last week, in the aftermath of Rosh Hashanah.  We have seen an increasingly high number of seriously ill patients and  a growing number  of fatalities.  Although the government has now imposed a closure as a way to try to deal with it - it is not a well- planned or well thought out response to the pandemic.  It is not being accompanied by steps to assist businesses, business owners and workers that will enable them to manage the economic side of the crisis.  It is being applied universally, all over the country, even though there are clearly pockets of high infection rate areas that probably warrant a different approach from those areas in which the infection rate is low.  It is unclear how this will all play out or what steps the  government will take to try and address the situation.  But we know that the virus can spread at exponential rates.  10,000 new infections per day is quite frightening and is  bound to lead to a great deal of stress on the health care system in Israel, the hospitals and support  systems across the country.  

The Current Israeli Government   

As you may know, the current Israeli government is a coalition government made up of opposing parties, generally quite hostile to each other,  who have been unable to follow the coalition agreement that they put  together themselves.  So, for example, the parties signed an agreement that they would pass a two year budget as one of the first items of business.  But Netanyahu reneged and insisted on a one-year budget only (which would be a budget for the period Jan 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020).  Blue and White continued to insist on a two year  budget.  A stalemate resulted and the decision was put off for two or three months.  As a result, there is no budget for the current year in place.  The government is running on "interim budget measures."  

Netanyahu is looking for an opportunity to pull the plug on this current government and  call an election.  He is hoping that he will be able to piece together a 61+ seat right wing government and get retroactive immunity for himself to clear him of the various criminal charges that he is now facing.  But polls have shown that Netanyahu is losing some support - to the "Yamina" (Real Right) party of Naftali Bennett.  Netanyahu is concerned that he will lose negotiating power and that he may not be able to get the immunity bill or the government that he wants.  So he has now become hesitant to call an election. We therefore have somewhat of a stalemated government that cannot agree on steps to take but is also reluctant to call another election.  This cannot continue for too long.  It is likely that the government will soon crumble and a new election will be announced - perhaps in December or January.

Meanwhile, there are protesters across Israel, spread out and following the new rules of protesting within  1 km of  their  homes.  For the most part, these protests have not been violent and have simply been made up of a wide range of citizens protesting against various aspects  of the operation of this current government under Netanyahu's stewardship.  That was  not  entirely the case on Saturday night in Tel-Aviv, where police on horses and in full riot gear used quite a bit of force to disperse a largely non-violent group of protesters.  

A primary concern is that a Prime Minister facing a range of criminal charges, is trying to make various decisions that could directly impact on his own situation.  For example, which judges to appoint in the courts, which civilian appointments (chief of police) and what to  close versus what to leave open across the country.  During the first closure, in March/April, one of Netanyahu's first steps was to close the courts while leaving many other places open - ostensibly so that he would not have to show up for an impending court appearance.

Many  other  people are protesting the lack of an economic plan, the impact of a closure on so many people without proper support and  the general perception that decisions are being made for political reasons  primarily rather than reasons based on epidemiological necessity or medical and scientific evidence and requirements.

At the same time and to be fair, it is unclear that this large number of protesters will be able to change the political results at the ballot box whenever the next election is held.  In other words, it may well be that they are made up of a large and  vocal minority.  That remains to be seen.

Schadenfreude

I must conclude this post with a comment on Schadenfreude.  

In Israel, I would not say that mask wearing and physical distancing has been viewed as a "left-wing plot" or confined to left segments of society.  In fact, Netanyahu himself has been very clear about wearing a mask,   proper steps to distance himself from others and urging Israelis to follow suggested steps to deal with the virus.  Of course some  of his ministers have not always gone along and  have viewed themselves having a special exemption from the rules that everyone else is urged to follow.  But it is not necessarily a "right-left" fault line. 

In fact one of his ministers is  now the subject of a great deal of press coverage.  Minister Gila Gamliel went to a shul  for Yom Kippur with her father in law - who was under a quarantine order due to exposure to the virus.  Some 28 people who attended services at that shul have now been diagnosed as having the virus.  There are many other similar stories.

As the virus spread in Israel, many in the ultra-Orthodox community refused to close synagogues, wear masks, follow physical distancing guidelines or close learning institutions.  One of the leading ultra-Orthodox rabbis of the Lithuanian ultra-orthodox community, Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky had insisted back in March that synagogues and yeshivas remain open since "cancelling Torah study is more dangerous than the virus."  He is later reported to have told his followers  not to get tested - since positive results would lead to a shut down of their institutions.  In any event, at age 92, he has now been diagnosed with Covid-19 although his condition is apparently improving.   According  to at least one report last week,  more than 40% of all cases of covid-19 are in the ultra-orthodox community.   Rabbi Kanievsky eventually agreed to issue a press release urging followers to adhere to guidelines.  But the virus is rampant  now in his community.

Likewise, of course, it is perhaps not surprising that President Trump has also contracted the virus.  He has held countless rallies  with unmasked supporters, refused (for the most part) to wear a mask himself and belittled those  who are taking the virus seriously.  When the Israeli  delegation flew to Washington to sign a peace deal with the UAE, Trump insisted that the delegation members not wear masks at the ceremony.  There was a heated negotiation but the Israelis largely gave in with some exceptions.  

Similarly, at Trump's Supreme Court nomination announcement last Saturday, the attendees did not wear masks or follow any physical distancing guidelines.  Is it at all surprising that Trump and  so many of his colleagues have been infected?  While we can all hope for the complete and  full recovery of the  President, I think we can also all hope (and pray) that the President will change his tune and start urging Americans to follow some common sense guidelines to minimize their chances of getting infected.  Maybe instead of attacking Biden for wearing a "huge mask," he'll decide to start wearing one  himself.  Regularly.  Assuming he recovers.

Sports Comment

September began with some  cautious optimism on my part cheering for some Toronto  teams.  The Raptors, Maple Leafs and Blue  Jays all had a shot to the make the playoffs and I was hoping for an interesting playoff season.   The Maple Leafs and Blue Jays exited with barely a whimper.  This was especially disappointing for the hockey team which had so much talent and so much promise.  But another year is in the books, which means that Toronto has  now gone 53  years without winning a hockey championship.  Ouch.

The Raptors were hoping to repeat their feat of  winning the NBA championship but without their superstar from last year Kawhi Leonard.  For the Raptors, it was also a premature and disappointing exit.

So what is a Toronto sports fan to do?  Well, the remaining team of interest - which has never one a championship - is the Buffalo Bills (okay, not Toronto but close  enough).   The  Bills are off to a 4-0 start this year and have an excellent young quarterback.  So that is very exciting.  Worth staying up for here in Israel.

Finally - and I think I got this wrong in an earlier blog - the Israel national soccer (football) team will play Scotland on October 8th for a chance to get to the delayed 2020 Euro championship.  If Israel beats Scotland, it will have to play the winner of a Norway-Serbia match on November 12th.  So that match will be this coming Thursday - and it really will be one of the biggest soccer matches for the Israeli side in many years.  I am not normally a huge soccer fan - but this will be an exciting event to watch.

I wish everyone a Chag Sameach (Happy holiday) and Mo'adim L'Simchah (Enjoy these times joy) and a home that the coming year brings us much better news from all across the world.  Keep in touch!


Wednesday, September 16, 2020

The "Abraham Accords" - Are We Any Closer to Middle East Peace?"


We watched the signing of the "Abraham Accords" yesterday with interest.  It was a big deal for Israel.  After all, any time that Israel can sign peace treaties (okay, normalization treaties) with other Arab countries, that is bound to be a big deal.  The deal and the process have elicited some very polarized reactions so I thought it would be worthwhile to provide a  few comments about this  process.

First of all, I think it is fair to acknowledge that, however we got here, this type  of deal is a favourable and beneficial deal for most players in the region.  Although it may be characterized primarily  as an "arms deal" between the U.S. and the UAE wherein the U.S. will now sell F-35s and other weaponry to the UAE, there is more to it than that.  The UAE and Israel have begun to negotiate deals and arrangements in a wide range of areas including technology, medicine, energy, tourism and, yes, defence.  This type of relationship, if it proceeds, will lead to a much warmer peace than Israel has with Egypt or  Jordan.  If it takes root and develops, it may well lead to a very different Middle East.  Other countries may come along and the peace between Israel and Egypt may develop further.   Israelis may soon find  themselves  visiting more Arab  countries regularly and vice-versa and that is exciting.

At the signing ceremony yesterday, including the accompanying press conferences, President Trump stated that he expected "5 or 6 other countries" to come along very soon.  Apparently, after the press conference he upped this to "7 to 9."   Now, I don't really think, given the track record, that anyone has any great reason to believe very much of what this president promises.  Who knows what these other countries are demanding in the negotiations?   Or how far apart they really are?  Or whether any of these deals can really be closed?  But I will say this - if Israel were to be able to enter deals with 5 or 6 other countries - including some large and significant ones - that would have to be considered a huge step towards Middle East  peace and a brighter future for the whole region.  So far, the names I have heard mentioned include Oman, Sudan, Morocco, Lebanon, and, ultimately, Saudi Arabia.  It would certainly be a huge credit to Trump and Kushner if they were able to close most or all of these deals.

If the other countries do not fall into line as expected, yesterday's  deal may not amount to very much and  may not change much in the region.  Some indications from yesterday's proceedings support a pessimistic view about the  whole ordeal.   Neither Bahrain nor the UAE brought their heads of state.  Instead, each side brought their foreign ministers (secretaries of state, if you will).  For Israel, the Foreign Minister, Gabi Ashkenazi (part of the Blue and White wing of the governing coalition) was left at home and did not attend with Prime Minister Netanyahu.  In fact, press reports here indicate that he wasn't even aware of the contents of the deal.  Neither the Israeli cabinet nor the Israeli Knesset have yet voted to approve the deal and it is unclear that anyone, other than Netanyahu, is aware of its full contents.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and the representatives from the UAE and Bahrain all spoke glowingly about President Trump.  That seems to have been one of the  key terms of the deal.  In fact, Netanyahu did not even acknowledge the foreign representatives from the UAE and Bahrain until later in his speech.  He did  not speak about plans for Israel and the UAE.  One might have thought he could  have publicly invited the UAE and Bahrain leaders to visit Israel during this speech or he could have reviewed some of the hopes and aspirations that citizens of each country might have.  But instead, the focus was on Netanyahu himself as well as Trump.  It is a shame that Netanyahu seems so willing to go  along with turning Israel into a partisan issue in United States politics.  I am not convinced that this is a policy that is in Israel's interests  long term, especially if Trump should lose the  November election.

For their part, the representatives of the UAE and Bahrain also went along with the cue to lavish praise upon President Trump,  repeatedly.  All that was missing was  an official ring-kissing procession.   They both said little about Israel but called for peace across the Middle East.  The Bahraini representative called for a "just  resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian" conflict but really did not discuss what was so great about this particular deal for Bahrain and Israel respectively.  The ceremony, overall, had the feel of a campaign rally for Trump and Netanyahu rather than a key diplomatic event.

Critics of the deal and of the Trump-Kushner approach to the Middle East  have argued that Trump has titled U.S. policy towards Israel and has effectively taken positions that Bibi himself would have put forward.  In some cases, this  is fair comment.  the Trump administration has cut aid to the Palestinians, has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and has recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.  The Trump administration has also put together a "Deal of the Century" proposal for peace between Israel and the Palestinians without Palestinian involvement.  And  yes, it is a fairly one-sided document.

That being said, the Trump-Kushner proposal, does call for an independent Palestinian State, something rejected  by Netanyahu,  his Likud party and the various parties to the right of Likud in the  Knesset.  It does not include all of the territory that the Palestinians would like and  it does  not include a right of return to Israel for the many Palestinian refugees.  But it does include territorial compromise by Israel and  it is a negotiable plan rather than the a bottom line.  It is unclear whether there would be any negotiations regarding Jerusalem.

It is true that  this approach tilts towards Israel.  But it has also true that previous plans including  the Arab League Plan and the Clinton plan tilted, almost  completely, to the  Palestinian side, especially the Arab League Plan which called for a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders including  the Old City.  Even where Israeli leaders were willing to go along with a plan that included most of these terms (i.e. the Clinton plan in 2000) that was not acceptable to the Palestinians.  I  do think that a Clinton-type plan left the station shortly after Arafat rejected it.  Especially after political changes in Israel that were probably linked, to some extent, to the rejectionist approach of the Palestinians at the time.

For years the surrounding Arab countries have  been willing to support Palestinian intransigence by characterizing Israel as the main enemy and  threat in the  region and refusing to enter into peace and  normalization deals with Israel - for fear of having been viewed as  betraying the Palestinian cause.  But over the course of the past 53 years since the 1967 war and 72 years since the establishment of the State of Israel, this has been a failing policy.  It has led to  a great deal of war and violence, terrorism, perennial refugee camps and has helped bolster dictatorial regimes in the region who have  used the Palestinian cause to suppress their own populations and  downplay  other criticism about how their countries are run.  And it really hasn't brought the Palestinians any closer to their own state.

The current approach led by Trump and  Kushner marks a  significant departure from this failed policy.  On the  one hand, the U.S. has tilted towards Israel in some areas, much to the chagrin of the EU, the "progressive wing" of the Democratic Party, Turkey, Iran and some other countries.  On the other hand, the goal of the policy seems to be to  bring in other Arab nations, to become friends and allies of Israel - but also to help work towards a resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict in a way that is more realistic. 

It is noteworthy that Netanyahu has called the deals with the UAE and Bahrain "deals from strength" that trade "peace for peace" rather than "land for peace."  But Netanyahu is being disingenuous.  As  part of these deals, Israel has agreed to refrain from unilaterally annexing any of the disputed territories and has also agreed not to oppose a U.S. decision to sell the UAE F-35s.   

The Crown Prince of the UAE states that he believed that the UAE could be in a much better position to assist with the Israeli -Palestinian conflict if it were viewed with some measure of trust and  friendship by Israel.  The UAE and Israel have taken steps  to build that relationship since as early as 2010.  But this does mark  a new  phase - and concurrently, a potentially new level of influence for the UAE in its dealings with Israel.  By including a requirement that  Israel abandon any proposal  to unilaterally annex land, some of which is earmarked for a future Palestinian state, the UAE has signified that it will take an active role in trying to bring about a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

That brings us to the current situation.  There are really a few very different routes that  this process may now take.

If Trump and Kushner are correct that this process has the potential to bring about a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians - I believe that Saudi Arabia would be the key turning point.  Saudi Arabia may well have the clout to insist that it will only sign a full peace deal with Israel if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved.  

In this scenario, a proposal or  plan may be developed that is somewhere between the Trump-Kushner plan and the Clinton Plan.  It would result in the formation of a Palestinian State and a full resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian  conflict.  The problem is that it may not be acceptable, initially, to the Palestinians or even the Israelis.  But here the hope would be that the combination of the support  of a large number of other Arab countries, financial, economic and other  assistance for the Palestinians would leave the Palestinians with no other real alternatives.

On the other side of the equation, Netanyahu has actively campaigned against the creation of a Palestinian state and has suggested that he opposes this part of the Trump-Kushner plan.  He stated this repeatedly during the last Israeli election campaign.  But at some  point, if pushed by Trump and  Kushner - and with the possibility of having  diplomatic relations, even  warm ones, with a large number of countries in the Middle East, Israel may also have no other real alternative but to accept the deal.

On the other hand, no matter what Trump, Kushner or Netanyahu do, there will continue to be rejectionists in the Middle East.   Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Hezbollah and Hamas have all registered their strong opposition to this approach and the Palestinian Authority has called the UAE and Bahrain "back stabbers."  If the other Middle Eastern countries will not go along with the  Trump-Kushner approach and if the PA decides to  turn to violence as its response (as it has many times in the past), an Israeli-Palestinian deal may be as far off as it has ever been.

If, in November, Trump is re-elected, he may decide to pressure Israel to accept a plan that he can sell to the other Arab countries - and ultimately try to use those countries to get the Palestinians to agree  as well.  There are a lot of "ifs"  here and Trump is very unpredictable.  And, of course, there is a still a good chance that he will not be re-elected.

If Biden is elected, he will have a difficult decision to make.  If he takes the Obama approach to the Middle East, that would mean trying to open up negotiations with Iran immediately, restoring funding to the Palestinians unconditionally and cooling the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and  others.  This may effectively end the current track of pushing for peace deals between Israel and neighbouring countries as a first step  towards peace.

But if  Biden is elected and  he can be convinced that some genuine progress has been made  - and the U.S. is close to brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and  Israel (that also involves an Israel-Palestinian deal), Biden might even continue a version of this path.  He  will almost certainly restore funding to the Palestinians either way and try to re-open dialogue with the PA.  But he might not tilt U.S. policy back to where it was under Obama.

Overall, I think this is all a great opportunity for Israel.  The Palestinians rejected the Clinton plan in 2000 and lost what was probably the best proposal they might ever get from Israel.  They probably regret having done so even if they will not publicly admit it.  At this juncture, if Israel could reach a deal with the Palestinians, along the  lines of what has been proposed by Trump and  Kushner, it would probably be about the best deal Israel could hope to get even if the final deal involves additional Israeli concessions.  If it is a deal that would also involve full peace deals with most of the  surrounding Arab countries, it would be an opportunity that Israel would probably not want to pass up.  

While President Obama and Netanyahu had a great deal of public  quarrels, the U.S.-Israel relationship remained very strong throughout  Obama's presidency.  This was the case despite some of the steps taken by Obama over the course of his presidency, especially his support for anti-Israel UN resolutions at the very end of his second term and the dispute with Israel over the wisdom of the Iranian nuclear deal.  But at the same time, throughout the  Obama presidency, the U.S. continued to cooperate with Israel fully in  a wide range of technological, military, economic and  other areas despite the often successful efforts of Netanyahu to portray the situation otherwise.  President Obama did not take any significant steps to try and impose a deal on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

If Biden is elected, he may well look at all aspects of the Obama-Netanyahu relationship and find a way to do things a bit differently.  He  may want to restore the public perception of the U.S.-Israel relationship as one that is non-partisan even while repairing the U.S. relationship with the Palestinians.  He will have a challenging  time with Netanyahu in this regard but if the ultimate result is comprehensive peace between Israel and the Palestinians with most other Arab countries in agreement - it may make sense to continue a version of the Trump-Kushner approach even if a Biden vision is viewed as being a bit more balanced.  








Friday, September 4, 2020

September 2020 Blog: What's New In Israel (Limited Survey)

We are quickly approaching the High Holy days - Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur - and I haven't written anything in about two months.  So I figured that it was about time to provide some  comments - not necessarily connected  about things going on here in Israel.  I have actually been here for quite a stretch now - given Covid-19 - but I have still been quite busy professionally.  After all, my line of work is a busy one these days.  So this blog will be a bit of a stream of consciousness - about a few different topics.  We'll see how that  works out.

Covid-19

As you may know, Israel was one of the early leaders in keeping a lid on Covid-19.   The country was virtually shut down for a period of time in March/April - including airports, malls and most everything else commercially other than essential services.  Israel managed to get the number of new Covid cases down to less than 10 a day.  It looked like the virus would disappear.

But the government did not accompany that closure with a support plan for affected businesses or furloughed employees (although many employees were eligible to collect Employment Insurance and will now be able to do so until June 2021). It was a quick, complete and probably half-baked closure plan.  Soon enough, many  sectors of the economy tanked and  the pressure on the  Israeli government to reopen was tremendous.  As a result, the government  (which itself was in quite a bit of political  turmoil) implemented an equally half-baked re-opening plan and opened just about everything very quickly.  Before you could say "Russian vaccine," there were 500 people at weddings and planeloads of infected people arriving on international flights, primarily from the U.S.  The numbers began to climb rapidly.  But the government had expended its political capital on its initial closure plan - and on its haphazard opening plan.  I think it is  fair to say that it lost the public trust (if it ever really had it).  The numbers climbed drastically and Israel has now hit numbers in the range of 3,000 new infections a day, while at the same time having reduced the number of tests.  The government is internally divided and has not really come up with any plan to combat the every increasing spread of the virus.  

The latest plan announced on Wednesday night is an impending closure of 30 "red" cities in Israel - due to come into effect on Monday.  (Heaven forbid you should  implement it immediately - that would interfere with the enjoyment of Shabbat - or in the case of the Arab towns and cities - the enjoyment of Friday...).  As of the writing of this blog, I don't think anyone can assume that the proposed closure will definitely go ahead.  We may not know for sure until Sunday night. But stay tuned.

The Chaggim / Yamim  Nora'im

As mentioned, the Holy Day season is quickly approaching.  Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur are only weeks away.  This is the time of year when synagogues are usually packed with wall to wall worshippers.  If the infection rate for Covid-19 is still this high, the Holydays could be real  "super-spreader" events and we could see the numbers rise to tens of thousands of new infections a day.  The Israeli government is torn in trying to figure out how to deal with this.

On the one hand, the scientific advisors to the government, including the special "Covid-19 Project Manager" are urging the government to shut down or  dramatically limit synagogues to no more than 10 or 20 worshippers and  to hold services outside as much as possible.  But the current Israeli government includes a large number of ultra-religious members of Knesset.  They are urging the government to permit full worship in synagogues.  I guess it is fair to say that many of them figure that whether or not they get the virus is a decision made from  above, rather than one affected by actions they might take here on earth.   And given the general lack of trust that the Israeli government has engendered through its earlier mishandling of closures and openings, I would imagine that the  ultra-orthodox community will  simply disregard any government orders that affect worship for the High Holydays.

Even for those of us who are more moderate in our approach to observance, figuring out the Holydays is a real challenge.  Our synagogue is planning to conduct a  few different services - some inside and some outside to keep the number of worshippers really limited - and to allow for physical distancing.  But we have still been wrestling with whether it sounds safe to go.  We normally play a significant role in these tefillot, our family reads from the Torah (all three of our "children" - they can't really be called "children" now), and participates in leading the services.  I have lead Musaf on Rosh Hashanah and for other services.  So I guess we have a short window to decide what to do.

For Yom Kippur, we  usually run a satellite service in Ra'anana.  Sometimes it has even been at our house, though the past few years, we have used the facilities of another synagogue in Ra'anana.  But this year, we have a range of opinions and issues.   How to keep the numbers down to 20, where to hold the services and other issues.  Things to deal with in the coming weeks  I guess.  But some of this falls on yours truly as one of the organizers of these  services.   So something to think about in the coming weeks (while working on preparations for leading Kol Nidrei and Neilah).  

The Peace Deal with the UAE

Israelis are quite happy with the recent announcement that Israel would establish full diplomatic relations with the UAE.   What's not to like?  Israel has apparently been working on relations  with the  UAE going back to 2010.  There have been many unreported exchanges so for some it is not a surprise.

Interestingly, the current Israeli government did not put the proposed peace deal to a vote in the Knesset or even in its own cabinet.  In fact, Netanyahu apparently kept his Blue and White coalition partners in the dark about the deal.

It certainly looks like the terms of the deal included an agreement by the U.S. to sell F-35s to the  UAE,  an agreement by Israel to cancel its proposed unilateral annexation of parts of the disputed territories and, in exchange, full diplomatic relations including active tourism, scientific, academic and cultural exchanges and ramped up economic trade.   I doubt that  the Israeli government would have opposed the deal although, in a democracy, the  deal probably should have been presented to the government for approval.

As you know, President Trump sent Secretary of State Pompeo on a whirlwind tour of other countries in the Middle East to try and convince them follow the UAE.  Israel is hoping to reach peace deals with Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, Morocco and, eventually, Saudi Arabia.  But these  countries apparently made it clear that they will only agree to peace with Israel if there is a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.  Both Netanyahu  and Trump seem to be helping each other and trying to bolster their respective electoral prospects even though a new election has not yet  been announced in Israel.  I can imagine that if Israel were to announce peace deals with four or five countries between now and November, even without resolving the Palestinian issue, this would still give Trump and Netanyahu significant  boosts.  On the other hand, if the UAE  is the only country to  agree, the deal may not affect the political landscape in either place.

Meanwhile, many Israelis are already planning their flights to Dubai.   With permission to fly over Saudi Arabia having been granted, the flight will take only 3 1/2 hours.  UAE hotels have already announced that they are planning to offer Kosher food.   And the UAE is looking to support the opening of  a number of synagogues.  This is all very exciting.  If Israel could find a way to reach peace deals like this with a number of other countries in the region, the world would really start to look like a better place.

In the meantime, the UAE may decide to take a more active role in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.  Perhaps the Palestinians will take a new look at their "bottom line" demands as they realize that more and more countries in the region are about  to make peace with Israel.   Likewise, the Israeli government may be willing to make some concessions  if the concessions are  tied to a broader Middle Eastern peace agreement.  The  obstacles today, aside from the Palestinian Authority, seem to be Turkey, Iran, Syria and perhaps Qatar along with Hezbollah, Hamas and other extremist movements.  One never knows what the future brings but there is reason  to believe that, overall, the UAE deal is a hopeful development and the first of many steps to come.

The Israeli Government

The current Israeli government is a very unstable one - made up of a coalition of various political enemies.  Every few weeks, there is a threat the government will fall and new elections will be called.  The latest threat came as a result of the budget.  Netanyahu's Likud party had signed a deal calling for a two-year budget as part of the coalition agreement that it entered into with the Blue and White party.  But, Netanyahu soon saw that his political support was rising after he eviscerated the Blue and White party in coalition negotiations.  He is still hopeful that he can win a new election outright and get a "retroactive immunity deal" that would eliminate his current ongoing criminal proceedings.  He became  worried that a two year budget might mean no new elections for two years.  So he announced that "circumstances had changed" and the government needed a budget for one year only (just until the end of 2020).   Of  course the Blue and White party called foul and claimed that this was a violation of the coalition deal.  It certainly was.  But Netanyahu pressed ahead.  In the end, Blue and White partially conceded and the parties agreed that they would put off  deciding anything for another two months.  So the Israeli government carries on without a budget and without any immediate plans to implement one.  And no election will be called for at least the next two months. Some commentators have ruminated that Trump asked Netanyahu to hold off on having another election until after the U.S. elections in November.  But I haven't seen anything concrete to back up that rumour.  

Either way, we have no budget, an ongoing coalition made up of political enemies and no definitive plans to do anything.  But no plans to change these circumstances.  Go figure.  

Some Sports Comments

I couldn't let this blog pass without commenting  on the Leafs  and the  Raptors.  Watching North American sports is a bit challenging in Israel for a few reasons.   The games aren't shown on most channels and with the time difference, it can mean watching big games from 2 to 5 a.m.  

But  some of us here were up to the task, especially since I have no real interest in watching Israeli soccer or basketball.  Of course it  was tremendously disappointing to watch the  Toronto  Maple Leafs make their annual early exit.  For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about - or don't really care - the Toronto Maple Leafs have not won an NHL ice hockey  championship since 1967.  So being a fan of the Leafs is a recurrently painful undertaking.  

The Toronto Raptors, on the other hand, are the defending world champions, having won their first NBA basketball championship last year.  Although this year they are now without their former team superstar Kawhi  Leonard, who signed as  free  agent to go play for the LA Clippers.  This  year, the Raptors won their first round of their title defence but were  losing 2-0 in the second round to the Boston Celtics.  Last  night,  we had the good fortune of watching the Raptors win by one point with no time on the clock and a three-point buzzer beater.  Very exciting.   So they are still alive.

In case you are wondering, we are  using  a Virtual Private Network to be able to watch Canadian channels....Israeli channel 59 (On Yes) shows some games  but certainly not all of them.  Previously we subscribed to Fox  Sports Israel.  But it stopped broadcasting in Israel last year.  So watching NHL, NBA and NFL games in Israel has become an even bigger challenge.

In other sports news, football news to be exact, the Israeli national team is playing against Scotland tonight in a playoff game that could see Israel make it into the next Euro championship.  It is one of the most meaningful soccer games that  the Israeli national team has played in many years.  If they win tonight, they have game on Monday night that will decide whether or  not they advance.  The problem of course is that tonight's game conflicts with Shabbat...

Final Comments

It has been unseasonably hot here the past few days - mid to upper 30s C (high 90s for those of you on the F scale).  When you combine that level of heat with a mask - it becomes very uncomfortable to be outside for very long.  Though we can get to the beach for an early morning walk in less than 15 minutes and at that time of day, it is still very nice.  We are hoping to do something fun over the Labour Day Weekend.  (It's not really Labour Day or even a long weekend here in Israel, but since my schedule is a Canadian work  schedule, we might as well enjoy).

Shabbat Shalom to everyone  and all in the best in preparing for the coming holidays.  And enjoy the long weekend - the "last weekend of summer" in Canada and many parts of the U.S.  Here we probably have at least two more months of really nice weather coming up until we get that "horrible" winter weather - 15-20 C and occasional showers.  Best regards and stay in touch! 





Monday, July 6, 2020

New Wave and New Closures in Israel

The Israeli government acted with determination in March 2020 and took extensive steps to close down a great deal of the country.  Perhaps, too many businesses were shuttered.  But the tight closure worked with respect to the virus.  As a result, Israel had relatively "good" Covid-19 statistics.  On a per capita basis, the rate of infections was low.  The mortality rate was low.  Prime Minister Netanyahu was happy to appear on TV and take credit repeatedly for his foresight - and to compare Israel favourably to countries like Italy, Spain and the U.S.

Later on, the country began  opening aggressively.  Wedding halls were allowed to host events with 250 people.  Yeshivas and synagogues were opened up.  Funerals were opened to 250.  Bars, pubs and restaurants around the country were opened and carried on as if there was no pandemic.  Even high schools across the country were holding proms and graduations as live in-person events instead of on zoom.  

Granted there was significant economic pressure to open things up and allow people to earn a living.  But the government opened up too many things, too quickly.

Now, here we are in early July.  Israel's numbers have gone from less than 20 new cases a day in early June to more than 1,200 new cases a day over the past few days.  Throughout that growth period, the bars, wedding halls, yeshivot and synagogues remained open along with so many other places.  All of a sudden - Netanyahu - who had looked like he was navigating difficult and uncharted waters properly - now looked like he was captaining a boat that had sprung several bad leaks.

So he called together his "Corona cabinet" to make some new and urgent decisions about what to close.  Buses will be limited to 20 passengers with no air conditioning (because the AC might spread the virus).  Restaurants will be allowed to have 20 people inside and 30 people outside but wedding and banquet halls will be shut down completely.  Yeshivas will remain open - and so will the beach....

Frankly, it sounds like the government has no idea what to do - and is facing pressure from several sectors of society which are trying to promote their own interests.  We know that more than 100 students from a Yeshiva in B'nai Brak were recently diagnosed with Covid-19 - yet the Yeshivas will be able to remain open.  

Wedding halls, whose owners and operators have struggled so dramatically over the past two months - will be required to close.  They won't even be able to run functions for 50 people.  But beaches will stay open.  I guess you can have a wedding on the beach....It is hard to find any logic in this.

Here in Ra'anana, there were several high school proms and graduations.  Few if any participants, including teachers, principals and students, wore masks or observed physical distancing.  Not surprisingly, several students at various high schools in Ra'anana have now been diagnosed as positive with Covid-19 and high school students across the city have received messages telling them that they are now required to go into mandatory isolation.

The difficulty is that the Israeli public is becoming more and more cynical about the restrictions imposed - especially given the lack of any cohesive logic.  This is a government that previously opened up huge Ikea stores early on after the widespread close  - even while shopping malls across the country remained closed because the then minister of health was a buddy of the owners of the Ikea Israel franchise rights.  

So now it is unclear whether the Israeli public will be willing to follow these new restrictions and whether they will work.  If they do not, Israel will have no choice but to impose another full closure within the coming weeks.  That will be disappointing, but the country will continue to everything it can to try and avoid what is taking  place in some of the harder hit countries.



 



Sunday, May 24, 2020

The Trial Begins: Netanyahu's Criminal Trial Officially Starts

It was a wild and crazy opening to a trial that will surely be one of the memorable events in the history of the State of Israel.  Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived today at the Jerusalem District Court for the official opening of his trial.  This was really only a date to read out the charges and set dates for the continuation of the trial.  But it was a polarizing and fascinating spectacle.

The Prime Minister arrived at the courtroom as part of a televised convoy of vehicles, all part of his security detail.  He then took to the steps of the courtroom and stood in front of a group of supporters including fellow cabinet ministers, members of his government and the other accused.  He gave a lengthy speech attacking the police, the prosecutor's office, the left and just about everyone else.  Given that his government has been in power for such a lengthy period of time, at least some of this vitriol had to have been directed at his own government.  After all, some of the people responsible for investigating him were his own appointees and designates.

Netanyahu argued that the three criminal cases that he is facing have been "sewn together" and add up to nothing.  He  spoke about pressure that the State used to obtain cooperation of State witnesses.  And he said "the people of Israel will judge him."  He went on about his electoral successes and the number of people who voted for him.  The TV stations  here broadcast the full speech - which went on for quite a while.  It was a call to the public to stand by him and provide unconditional support, no matter what might occur.

At the same time, there were busloads of Netanyahu supporters, from across the country, who had arrived to show their support for Netanyahu, "no matter what happens."  This may have been organized by Netanyahu's legal team but so far, there is no evidence of that.  The interviews with several of these witnesses were riveting and frightening.  "The "Kadosh Baruch Hu will protect him and ensure that justice is done," said several of those who were interviewed, using various other terms for the divine intervention that they are expecting.

Others attacked the court system, the prosecutor's office, the judges and the Israeli left.  Several of them played religious songs and danced in front of the courtroom as if they were at a wedding.  One 12 year-old girl was interviewed, standing next to her father, and said she had decided to come to the demonstration instead of her bat-mitzvah party.  She wanted to stand for "truth and justice," she said.  "They are harassing the Prime Minister," she continued, "they should just leave him alone...think about all of the great things he has done  for the country."  "I would rather be here standing for truth and justice than having a bat mitzvah party."  My only reaction to that was "wow."

There were also several protesters demonstrating against Bibi, but they didn't seem to get very much press coverage.

Ultimately, Netanyahu delayed taking a seat inside the courtroom until all of the press had left so that he could not be photographed sitting in the accused's dock.  And so it began.  As might be expected, Netanyahu's lawyers argued that he required an extensive time period to prepare and review the charges, well into 2021.  They had a new lawyer on the team and would need extra time to get up to speed. The prosecution argued that he has been aware of the charges and was provided with extensive evidence and materials quite some time ago.  They pushed for an early date for the continuation of the trial.  The three judges reserved and will announce a schedule later today or some time tomorrow.  

Earlier this week, several Israeli TV programs and news reporters conducted in-depth reviews of the three cases against Netanyahu.  They were able to do this based on the public release of transcripts of witness examinations, text messages, emails and evidence provided by Netanyahu himself.

The most serious set of charges involves the Bezek telephone company and its press subsidiary "Walla" which operates a Hebrew language on-line news service.  The prosecution alleges that Netanyahu provided extensive regulatory favours to Bezek which allowed them to earn millions of dollars over a period of two years.  In exchange, the prosecution alleges that the CEO of Bezek agreed to provide Netanyahu with favourable news coverage on Walla.  The prosecution has put forward a huge number of emails, text messages and other communications showing that Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, were sent articles in advance and given the opportunity to edit them and change them to make them more favourable to Bibi.  In some cases, Bibi and Sara were provided with advance copies of video interviews and allowed to splice them, delete sections and change the context of the interviews.  

Netanyahu's defence is that politicians always try to influence the media..  He argues that this is part of the game and can't be criminal.  His lawyers call this case an attack on the freedom of the press.  They claim that merely obtaining favourable press coverage cannot be the subject of a bribery case.  In fact, Netanyahu's legal team recruited world famous law professor Allan Dershowitz to come to Israel and make that argument at Netanyahu's preliminary argument last year.  Essentially, the argument was that even if Netanyahu provided something of value to Bezek (worth millions of dollars), he didn't get anything of value in exchange since "favourable press coverage" has no value.  Not surprisingly, the Israeli court dismissed this preliminary argument out of hand.  I imagine that Dershowitz's arguments in support of Trump would have also met the same fate if they were made before any panel of objective judges.  

Netanyahu did not speak about the other two criminal counts.  According to one count, he received hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of champagne and cigars from Israeli/American business people over a period of several years.  The gifts are well documented and not disputed.  In exchange, it is alleged that he provided them various favours, including, for example, assisting one to try and get President Obama involved in a business visa matter.  Here, Netanyahu's primary defence seems to be that "there is nothing wrong with getting some gifts from your friends..."  His lawyers have also said that if a good friend asks for a favour, of course you are going to help out.  They simply claim that there is no linkage between the two.

The third set of criminal charges also involve allegations of breach of public trust involving another news organization and an attempted deal to arrange favourable publicity.

Netanyahu has the right, as do all accused, to be considered innocent until and unless he is found guilty.  However, there is a great deal of damning evidence here and the legal defences that he is putting forward do not seem likely to assist him in getting out of this completely.

For that reason, Netanyahu has invested significant effort in trying to get legislation passed that would retroactively eliminate the charges and provide him with immunity.  However, under the current government coalition deal, has not been able to extract that concession.  If this current coalition falls apart and there is another election, before the trial is concluded, Netanyahu might still be able to use the political process to get himself out of legal trouble.  There is probably a reasonable bet on Netanyahu's part that this would be his best way of dealing with these issues.  After all, he came within 3 seats of being able to get those concessions after the most recent election and he has now eviscerated Gantz and his Blue and White Party.  It is quite possible that if a fourth election is called, Netanyahu may be able to cobble together a 61 seat majority "immunity coalition."

If that doesn't work, he may yet negotiate some sort of plea bargain deal, down the road.  His wife Sara negotiated a plea bargain deal last year which saw her agreeing to plead guilty and repay some of the money that she had fraudulently obtained from the state.  

If the case somehow makes its way all the way through a trial and through to a conclusion, it will be intense, highly contested, dramatic and unpredictable.  And throughout, Netanyahu is certain to continue using his out of court time to call on the Israeli public to accept only one conclusion to his legal problems, whatever the evidence might show and whatever the judges might otherwise decide.

Stay tuned, although  this trial is not likely to continue before the end of all of the Jewish holy days in late October, 2020 and it may not even start until months later.







Monday, May 4, 2020

Some Improvements in Israel and Some Ongoing Arguments

Israeli Supreme Court
Well here we are in May, 2020 and our Prime Minister is claiming victory over Covid-19.  Okay, not exactly, but at a news conference earlier this evening, he pointed out, repeatedly, how much better Israel has fared than many other countries with similar sized populations.  All because, he argued, Israel took very aggressive steps much earlier than these other countries.  He mentioned Italy, Spain, the United States and others.

Using various charts and  graphs, Netanyahu showed that Israel has seen a tremendous reduction in its infection rate, a reduction in the number of daily fatalities and a reduction in the number of seriously and critically ill patients.

It is true that the steps taken, largely at the behest of professionals working in the Ministry of Health, have helped Israel to fare reasonably well in comparison.  But it is unclear that this means that Israel can now open everything up and pretend that the virus has gone.  If there is a resurgence, everything will have to be shut down again quite quickly.  According to Netanyahu, it will take about two weeks to make that assessment.

In the meantime, the Israeli government has loosened many restrictions.  Malls and outdoor markets will be open on Thursday May 7, 2020.  Visits to see family members, including grandparents are now permitted - though "no hugging" is recommended.  Gatherings of up to 20 people are now permitted.  (Up until now, this was only permitted if it was an outdoor prayer service).  Weddings on Lag B'Omer may be permitted with up to 50 people - though it wasn't clear if the limit will be 20 or 50.  All students are expected to return to schools by the end of May.

People will still be expected to wear masks when they are out  and gloves are recommended though not mandatory.  We took a walk today around Ra'anana.  While there were some people without masks, we concluded that most people were complying.  In some shops, proprietors were following all of the restrictions diligently.  In others, things were a bit looser.  Okay, much looser....But the infection rate in Ra'anana has been reasonably low so it is fair to assume that many people here are following the rules.

Some other cities in Israel have been much harder hit, most notably, Jerusalem, B'nei Brak and some other areas. However, it does appear that things are improving somewhat in most of the country.  It remains to be seen whether this will be a blip or whether it will mark some genuine progress.  The Israeli government has indicated that if all goes well, it intends to permit  gatherings of 50 or more people  - for weddings, funerals etc., by June 17th.  Not sure yet what this will mean for restaurants - though it may be good news for those with outdoor patios.

Today also marked the second day of arguments before the Israeli Supreme Court over whether or not to permit the coalition deal with the Blue and White party to proceed.  Various groups  have brought petitions to the Court arguing against the deal.  I am not going to review all of the legal arguments but I will highlight a few of them.

Under Israeli law, a "Prime Minister" can serve even while under indictment for serious offences.  However, other MKs cannot continue in their posts and ordinary "Ministers" are required to step down if charged with certain serious offenses.  The new coalition agreement contemplates that Netanyahu would serve as the Prime Minister for the first 18 months and would then step down to a lesser position.  However, under current Israeli law, that would require him to resign altogether until the serious charges that he faces were resolved.  The solution that Netanyahu concocted is that he wouldn't still be called the "Prime Minister" but Gantz would be the "Alternate Prime Minister" who would effectively run everything after the rotation date.  But because Netanyahu would still be called the "Prime Minister" he would not be forced to resign.  Israel would effectively have two Prime Ministers which seems to go against Israel's quasi-constitutional Basic Law.  (Israel does not have an actual constitution). 

The Court chewed on this one for a while today.  Ultimately, some members of the Court suggested that they may delay deciding until it actually becomes an issue 18 months from now.  But Netanyahu's lawyers urged the Court to make a decision now.

The coalition deal would also require a freeze on all new appointments in government including a number of key positions which have been dormant for some time.  Netanyahu's lawyers argued that it was all because of Covid-19.  Some of the Supreme Court judges asked how the two were in any way related...For example, the President of the Court asked why Covid-19  would prevent the government from appointing a new Chief of Police.

I have to confess that, as a lawyer, I enjoyed watching a chunk of the arguments.  It was fascinating to compare legal discourse in Canada to that in Israel.  It was a very heated argument at times - and certainly the type of language that was used was much more colourful (and at times informal) than one might hear at the Canadian Supreme Court, most of the time.  My Hebrew is good enough to catch most of it though I probably missed some nuances, some references to previously decided cases and some other phrases common only in Hebrew legal usage.

From what I could gather, there is a strong reluctance on the part of the judges to interfere in the election process.  They do not want to be seen as overriding a democratically elected government formed though a back and forth negotiation process.  At the same time, they are wary of upholding laws that would violate the Israeli Basic Law and chip away at Israel's democracy and commitment to the rule of law.  Towards the end of the hearing, the justices signaled that they needed to hear further arguments about two key issues and gave the Likud lawyers 24 hours to amend the proposed law or put forward better arguments.  It would be really difficult, however, to predict what decision will follow that additional argument.

Changing the topic, the weather here is heating up and the big holiday of Lag B'Omer - national bonfire day (effectively) is approaching.  Beaches are not yet open but just about everything else will be soon - and reopen beaches cannot be too far off.   Many people are now out and about and there is a feeling of some optimism across the country.

For  many, however, a huge part of the Israeli economy is tourism.  So many businesses across the country rely on the tourism industry.  Hotels, restaurants, merchants, tour guides and so many others.  It is really unclear when Israel will be able to reopen its borders to tourists, when the airports will reopen and when things will really turn back to some semblance of normal.

But I suppose that is the same just about everywhere else.  We will all just have to hope that things improve dramatically everywhere, the sooner the better.  Wishing everyone the best of health.